2011年12月31日 星期六

港股今年跌2成 市值蒸發3.5萬億


依家買股等升市, 風險唔小, 因為無人可以保証股市會跌去乜位和幾時可以升返 !

文匯報

香港文匯報訊(記者 李永青)2011年港股最後一個交易日,大市昨以紅盤報收,微升36點,報18,434點。在歐債危機陰霾重重籠罩,及美國被降主權評級等影響下,總括全 年恒指累跌4,601點,跌幅20%,為08年以來最差,年內高低波幅達8,298點;國指亦累計跌21.7%至9,936點。大市市值減至17.53萬 億元,蒸發3.54萬億元或16.79%。

 回顧2011年,48隻恒指成分股中,飽受歐債危機拖累的思捷(0330)表現最差,累跌 73%,其次為新世界發展(0017),累跌53%。相反,聯通(0762)成為表現最佳的恒指成份股,全年累升47%。同時,今年染藍之股份則報喜,康 師傅(0322)及旺旺(0151)雖糾纏於成本上漲問題,但無阻兩股爆上,分別成為本年最佳藍籌股第二位及第四位,升幅分別18.6%及13.8%。另 外,曾為眾多散戶愛股的礇控(0005),昨在2011年最後一個交易日未能重上60元水平,收報59元,全年累跌約26%。

大市先甜後苦 年跌4601點

 以先甜後苦來形容2011年可謂最適合不過,4月份恒指曾見全年高位的24,468點,但之後壞消 息一個接一個,特別是歐債危機像雪球般,多個歐盟成員國先後出事,希臘面臨破產邊緣,希臘總理更被迫下台,再加上去年8月標普調低美國主權評級,令美國失 去「AAA」評級,消息令全球股市大跌,港股單是8、9月份已跌逾6,000點,恒指亦在10月初跌至全年低位的16,170點。港股全年累跌4,601 點,亦令市值大幅蒸發,港股在2010年12月31日市值為210,770億元,但至2011年12月30日,跌至175,372億元,跌幅為 16.79%。

 受隔夜美股上升135點刺激,港股於2011年最後一個交易日表現造好,收報18,434點,升36點;國指收報9,936點,跌8點,成交總額進一步萎縮至246.3億元,為連續4個交易日少於300億元。

瑞信:來年走勢先低後高

 展望2012年,瑞信私人銀行部亞太區研究主管范卓雲預料,上半年仍受歐債問題困擾,港股走勢將先 低後高,首季將在18,000點至20,000點上落,全年恒指目標價為23,500點,國企指數為12,000點,建議投資者明年購入高息股,並避免投 資受經濟周期影響較大的行業,如航運股。范卓雲表示,在歐債危機和全球經濟放緩情況下,在2012年全球經濟難有改善,但目前股票的估值已反映了經濟衰 退。

 至於入市時間,范卓雲預料,第二季港股才會迎來升勢,因為第一季受歐債危機的影響,大市將維持上落的波動格局。利好因素方面,包括歐債危機落實解決方案時間表,及3月召開的中國全國人大會議推出穩定經濟的刺激政策。

電訊及設備股料繼續受捧

 耀才證券研究部副經理植耀輝表示,由於預期明年環球經濟會不景氣,故外貿出口亦會萎縮,加上內地樓 價未見大跌,料中央政府只會微調宏調政策,不會過早放鬆調控力度,故航運、內銀及內房板塊料明年仍然「冇運行」。反之電訊行業為內地「十二五」規劃的重點 之一,加上收入較穩定,較少受經濟不景影響,故料續成為逆市奇葩;電訊設備股料亦會受惠行業增加支出,可看高一線。

又到年結時

誰跑得快 ?
1. 油 +13.35%
2. 黃金 +10.03%
3. Dow + 5.53%
4. 日元 + 5.27%

白銀跌得最傷 -8.44%, 但舊年升成 80%, 所以跌下來正是俾大家買平貨的機會 !
其他外幣升跌輕微 !

本人投資組合流動資金, 2011年增長約 6% !

Joe 網轉過來, 恒指 2011年跌 20%, 所以沽股買金銀是買岩咗 !

2011年12月30日 星期五

Mad Rush in Japan to SELL Bullion

silverdoctors.blogspot.com

Well what was supposed to be an almost immediate tax implication for bullion transactions in Japan, left two days of freedom for interested buyers/sellers and has resulted in a MAD RUSH to sell their bullion. Bullion houses are staying open late due to huge demand from sellers who want to complete transactions before the new tax law takes effect January 1st.

SINGAPORE, Dec 29 (Reuters) - A new taxation law in
Japan has triggered a bullion sales spree among gold investors
at the end of the year despite sharp falls in gold prices,
dealers said.

From Jan. 1, bullion retailers are required to report to tax
authorities physical gold and platinum transactions of over 2
million yen ($25,700) with members of the general public, said a
senior official with a large bullion house in Tokyo.

Bullion houses stayed open on Thursday, even though it was a
public holiday in Japan, to receive investors who wanted to sell
their physical gold holdings or swap big chunks of gold for
smaller lots, such as coins.

"The general public does not want to pay additional tax on
their gold investment," said the official. "So even though
prices dropped sharply overnight many are coming to bullion
shops for liquidation."

Reuters Full Press Release

2011年12月29日 星期四

資金又流去美元


金銀又試支持位 !
好彩我地可以用靚靚銀幣來安慰自己 !

2011年12月28日 星期三

團購銀幣完滿結束


今日下午順利收到貨和今晚飯局分曬貨啦 !

最多人買的銀幣是 :

1. 2012 1oz Somalian Elephant
2. 2012 1oz Britannia
3. 2011 1oz Fiji Taku
4. 2011 1oz Somalian Elephant

美国追查公民海外资产致部分华人放弃绿卡

美國愈窮愈見鬼, 又一招玩死自己 !

news.sina.com.cn

又是一年“报税”季!国库亏空、债台高筑,美国政府加紧追查国人海外账户和海外资产的真实性,一旦被查出在海外藏有资产,户主将被施以重罚。提醒想移民美国的华人,今后,移民美国或在美投资可要三思而后行了。

  美政府彻查公民海外资产

  上周,美国国税局公布了《海外账户纳税法案》(FATCA)部分实施细则。根据税法规定,截至2011年12月31日,居住在美国境内、在海外拥有5万美元以上资产或者居住在美国境外、在海外拥有20万美元以上资产的美国公民和持有美国绿卡的外国人都需要在2012年4月15日前向政府申报;藏匿海外资产拒不申报被视为有意逃税,一经查出会被处以高达5万美元的罚款,严重的还会被判刑。

  以前第一轮主动申报到2009年10月15日结束时,美国国税局共收到了1.5万份境外资产申报书,涉及60多个国家的银行,美国政府并不满意,于是发起了第二轮的主动申报计划。

  银行被要求晒客户账户

  此外,美国政府还规定,所有想在美国经营的外国银行从2013年1月1日起都必须向美国国税局提供存款超过5万美元的美国公民账户信息,否则就被视为与美国政府不合作。对于不合作的金融机构,美国将对其总收入(而不是净收入或利润)征收30%的惩罚性税收。瑞士银行家菲利普·布朗认为,上述措施无疑是“迫使银行在丧失客户和公开资料之间做出痛苦的抉择”。在此之前,以保护匿名账户著称的一家瑞士银行因为在一项诉讼中要与美国政府达成和解,从而向美国政府提供了4000多个账户的名字,其中有许多是在海外藏匿资产的富豪。

  部分华人放弃绿卡

  由于中国是移民美国的大国,大约总计有250万的华人是美国第一代移民,这些人与祖籍地都有或多或少的经济上的联系。美政府出“重拳”彻查公民海外资产以来,就有不少旅美台湾人惶惶不可终日。有不少人为了保住在台湾的资产,宁愿选择放弃美国的国籍或者绿卡。

  美国《每日新闻》网站认为,美国政府要求外国银行提供美国公民账户信息,这将会让那些打算在海外开立投资或储蓄账户的美国公民遭遇更大的困难,在这种情况下,华裔美国人最终选择放弃美国公民身份的人数也越来越多。

  但是根据美国税法规定,即便放弃美国国籍,美国政府要求补交放弃国籍前五年拥有的海外资产隐匿不报而逃避的税收和罚金。美国国税局的规定出台以后,美国的华人会计师事务所生意变得格外好,很多人来打探消息。

  ○新闻分析

  为何现在才严打

  据《全球华语广播网》美国观察员余浩分析,2011年美国联邦赤字高达1.4万亿美元,未来几年联邦政府的财政赤字总额将达到8.7万亿美元。据了解,这个法律早在1971年就有了,但以前并没有严格地执行。说到底现在美国政府没钱了需要找辙来弄钱,这就是现在重拳出击的最主要的原因。

  综合中国日报、北京晚报

五部委聯手取締 無牌黃金交易商

蘋果日報

【本報訊】亂世,黃金必成寵兒!內地幾乎每個城市都有無牌的黃金投資公司透過電話攬客,由於市民瘋狂炒 黃金,中國人民銀行、公安部、工商總局、銀監會和證監會等五部委決定聯手整治,取締所有無牌黃金投資公司,就連天津市金融辦「半撐」的天津貴金屬交易所, 也可能難逃被取締命運。
五部委完成連番整頓後,由官方欽點的黃金交易所就只有上海黃金交易所和上海期貨交易所。五部委聯合發佈《關於加強黃金交易 所或從事黃金交易平台管理的通知》對設立黃金交易所或在其他交易場所內設立黃金交易平台等相關活動進行規範。通知提到正在籌建的,應一律終止相關設立活 動;已經開業的,要立即停止開辦新的業務。

天津貴金屬交易所難倖免

天津貴金屬交易所就是未領正牌已試業中,交易所去年已經完成了 1428億元(人民幣.下同)的交易量,截至 2011年 2月底,交易所累計成交金額逾 2100億元,當然,與上海黃金交易所去年近 2萬億元的交易量相比,還有距離。
據 內地傳媒報道,天津貴金屬交易待所是由交通銀行、光大銀行來進行資金三方託管的合法金融機構,和上海黃金交易所是同一個性質的。目前天津產權交易中心佔天 交所股份 26%,另外 74%的股份已分屬三家民營機構。而天津產權交易中心向天津市金融辦公室提交了關於建立天津貴金屬交易所的請示,並獲天津市金融辦簽發了同意設立的批覆。

伊朗警告封海峽 「不容一滴油通過」

唔怪得油價升去一百樓上 !

文匯報

伊朗官方通訊社昨日引述副總統拉希米指,假如西方制裁伊朗石油出口,伊朗將「不容許一滴石油」通過霍爾木茲海峽。這番言論反映伊朗已準備好一旦面對西方制裁或攻擊時,將封鎖這條佔全球超過1/3的海上石油運輸路線。

 拉希米表示,伊方無意尋求敵對或暴力,但由於西方一意孤行實施制裁,伊朗唯有作出反擊,迫使敵人讓步。目前伊朗海軍正在霍爾木茲海峽進行大規模軍演,昨日有艦船及戰機演習在海裡投擲水雷。

 同樣面對西方壓力的敘利亞,首批赴敘國的阿拉伯聯盟50人觀察團前日抵達首都大馬士革,昨日到中部城市霍姆斯開始考察監督總統巴沙爾在當地實施和平計劃的情況。其間當地約有7萬人示威,要求巴沙爾下台,安全部隊據報發射催淚氣體阻止遊行前進。

阿盟稱敘「種族滅絕」

 觀察團成員之一馬哈吉卜前日表示,敘利亞正發生「種族滅絕」,指當局正對人民報復。據報他也在霍姆斯中槍受傷。

白宮否認允也門總統赴美

 另外,已經承諾下台的也門總統薩利赫(見圖),上周表示會前往美國作短暫迴避,為繼任人讓路。《紐 約時報》前日引述匿名官員消息稱,華府在原則上已批准薩利赫赴美就醫,只待進一步確認,但白宮迅即駁斥報道,重申仍在考慮中,強調報道並非屬實。  

■綜合外電消息/路透社

2011年12月26日 星期一

祝大家新年進步

遲來的聖誕卡 !
因為今年24號無出街, 所以無影到相 !

2012年「末日」倒數?

文匯報

香港文匯報訊(記者 李鍾洲)古瑪雅人曆法暗示2012年可能是世界末日,隨著人類即將踏進「末日年」,無論是考古學家還是普羅大眾,都越來越關注這一「生死攸關」的預言。本報記者特在一年將盡之際,走訪了物理學家和玄學家,跟大家一道揭開這末日之謎。

地球近年進入多事之秋,氣候愈趨極端,大規模天災不斷,2004年南亞大海嘯、2005年美國卡特里娜颶風、今年東日本大地震和海嘯;瑪雅曆法在明年12月21日結束,這一切純粹巧合?抑或冥冥中暗示了人類的命運?均在世界各地都引起激烈爭論。

銀河對齊 地球大亂?

 部分末日論者引用疑似科學觀點,繪形繪色地「咒死」地球︰明年12月21日地球、太陽和銀河系中心對齊,屆時銀河系中心大黑洞的能量會導致地球大混亂;明年達到高峰的太陽風暴,會引發各種天災甚至南北極對調;「X行星」尼比魯將進入內太陽系,擾亂行星運行,並令地球出現大規模極端天氣。

 不過,中文大學物理學系副教授朱明中接受訪問時表示,上述猜測要麼沒有實際根據,要麼誇大其辭,例如銀河系中心離地球太遠,不會造成如此巨大的影響;太陽風暴的破壞力亦被過度放大,且科學界未能證實太陽活動是導致地球天災的元兇;至於傳聞中的尼比魯則根本不存在。

天外危機 人類束手

 既然「2012」只是杞人憂天,那麼人類是否從此高枕無憂?朱明中認為,在各種末世景象中,小行星撞擊地球最可能發生。大量隕石和小行星在火星和木星之間的小行星帶之間運行,大部分都有穩定的軌道,但部分小行星可能因互相撞擊,偏離原有軌道,直飛地球。

 朱明中表示,美國太空總署(NASA)監察著所有具威脅的小行星,暫未發現它們會明年來襲,但難免會「睇漏眼」。倘真有體積較大的小行星與地球「相會」,恐怕國際間尚未有合作機制和科技把它擊退,屆時才真正是人類生死時刻。

楊天命預言 洪災襲全球

 從科學角度否定了明年大限將至,那麼玄學角度呢?玄學家楊天命接受本報記者訪問時表示,他從《易經》占得「雷天大壯卦」,推算明年會有很多天災,其中主要是水災,而今年泰國和意大利水災就是初始階段。他表示,明年「末日」當天年柱「壬辰」、月柱「壬子」、日柱「丙辰」,也即重水浸,沒象徵太陽的丙火的意象。然而他強調,這只是陸地上的洪水,而非海嘯,與末日扯不上關係。

 精通《易經》的楊天命指出,瑪雅曆法的終結並非末日,只是曆法本身數到盡頭。

 面對鋪天蓋地的末日預言,我們應以怎樣的心態迎接2012?楊天命引述蘋果公司前行政總裁喬布斯的話說,當每天是最後一天,開開心心過吧。

文匯報

香港文匯報訊(記者李鍾洲)世界末日的傳言滿天飛,玄學家楊天命承認明年的確有「末日」,但不是指人類,而是金融系統的末日。他預言整個資本主義社會明年會出現大轉折,政府不再容忍大行肆意玩弄金融市場,紛紛將它們國有化。他估計美國聯儲局的第3輪量化寬鬆政策(QE3)將於上半年出台,下半年大市走勢凌厲。

 楊天命表示,目前西方很多金融機構不受政府監管,或者政府想管也管不了;華爾街大行恃勢凌人,搗亂經濟和民生,但到了明年,社會意識到這不能繼續下去,政府將通過救援或接管金融機構,實行大規模國有化,使金融家無法再自把自為。

年初宜入市 上半年料推QE3

 今年歐元區債務危機持續困擾全球,大市反覆,股民無啖好食。楊天命表示,《易經》「雷天大壯卦」暗示明年下半年全球股市、樓市大升,故年初是入市良機。他預料聯儲局明年上半年推出QE3,令市場資金氾濫,加上墨西哥灣會出現大型颱風,帶動油價飆升。

美總統大選 奧巴馬可險勝

 明年美國總統大選全球注目,楊天命預測現任總統奧巴馬會改變競選策略,解僱原有的部分管治團隊,最終令選民覺得他肯正視問題,回心轉意投他一票。雖然奧巴馬與競選對手的票數會相差無幾,可能出現點票糾紛,但無阻奧巴馬險勝連任。

2011年12月23日 星期五

Jim Sinclair - The Gold Panic & What to Expect in 2012

kingworldnews.com

With escalating fears from gold and silver investors around the world, including professionals, today King World News interviewed legendary Jim Sinclair. When KWN asked if he has ever seen this kind of fear and panic in the gold market, Sinclair responded, “Not in the first gold market (1970s), not in the gold market we are in now, not in the correction (in ’08 & ’09), which took us down after the first move through $1,000 and back under $800.”

Jim Sinclair continues:

“The amount of discontent and bearishness among people who know better is enormous. It’s moved from bearishness to some form of anger. (This is a) historical bottom, capitulation. A clear sign that the gold market is moving into an outrageously oversold position, most certainly in anything that’s a common share.

You must not allow your emotions to direct your decisions. Your emotions will always be your best contrary indicator you have. You have to examine the circumstances and ask whether or not the reasons why you’ve committed to something have changed. And if they haven’t changed, you simply need to buck up and go the course because you’re right.

People are beginning to literally crack, defined as shifting their total focus to their emotions and away from their intellect. I’ve seen emotionalism in areas where it doesn’t belong, where it’s never existed before. I’m in total shock.

When I see people who have distinguished themselves under pressure, over years, let their emotions cloud their judgement, actually letting their emotions break over them like a tidal wave, it puts me in total shock....

“We’re in the most manipulated markets. We’re in the most fraudulent markets in history. There has never been a time when you can have assets disappear from people and modest inquiries take place of the leaders of that company. What you are seeing go on right now favors the bankers and disfavors all others.

However, when it’s finally finished there will be one man standing and that one man standing will be gold, the only market that the banksters can’t control in the final chapter. In a very short period yesterday we had a range of $100, and I’m going to tell you and the listeners now, you haven’t seen anything yet compared to what you are going to see as gold moves toward $4,500.”

When asked what to expect from gold in 2012, Sinclair stated, “Well into the high $2,000s. And as Truman said, ‘If you can’t stand the heat, you’ve got to get out of the kitchen.’ But let me tell you that when this year is over, the only hands left holding physical gold and gold shares are the strongest hands on the planet.

Every possible weak hand has been shaken out. Every person with emotions even latently capable of overwhelming their intellect, overwhelming their judgement, will have already overwhelmed it this week. After this week, the people who are left are people who will never give up their positions.”

2011年12月22日 星期四

李居明龍年預測

明年是水龍年, 開庫之年, 人人富有豐足, 所以最好的地方是香港。
2014年才是最火毒的一年, 如同未日(說香港和全世界) !
香港運, 是地產和飲食, 而其他行業只是陪襯 。
李居士說, 唐英年會是下一屆特首, 不是梁振英。

2012年樓股, 時好時壞, 但舖價還是高企 !
黃金已不會如以前預測大升, 只可以買些來當保險 !

外間無淨土, 大停電, 大水淹, 大型火爆, 恐怖襲擊和交通火險 !
2012年, 水火相沖, 所以世界多災多難 !

奧巴馬(美國), 普京(俄國), 胡錦濤(中國)和默克爾(德國)都還有幾年運行, 所以呢四位首領還會左右世界, 而奧巴馬2014年如唔下台會俾人剌殺 !

2012年澳門會有大件事發生, 澳門水多必水浸和水多會激起火毒火爆凶事 !

2012年是太陽黑子年, 9月22日會出現太陽風爆, 影響全球通訊, 氣温增高, 車禍增多, 股票大波勳, 情緒波動自殺增加, 恐怖襲擊成功 !

Jim Sinclair Suggests 2015 May Be Time to Take Profits in Gold & Silver

silverdoctors.blogspot.com

Responding to a reader inquiry, the legendary Jim Sinclair has suggested that the grouping of cycles indicates that the time to consider taking profits in gold and silver may be 2015. Will we see the final, 3rd stage public mania in gold and silver play out over the next 3 years?

Dear Luke,
You have presented the most difficult of questions. Last evening, I answered that via a graph of emotions that finds tops, but not necessarily with the definition of the long term top appended.
I do not think a ratio to the Dow is the answer.
The model answer is when gold sells (per ounce) at the value that equals the total dollar value of US foreign debt divided by the assumed number of ounces of gold the US government has, gold is full priced.
The reason for that is because at that price the international balance sheet of the USA and therefore the dollar is in balance. However, that number, which was $900 in 1980, is now slightly above $12,400.
If grouping of cycles is of any use time wise, that suggests 2015.
Regards,
Jim

2011年12月21日 星期三

London Trader - We are Witnessing a Historic Bottom in Gold

kingworldnews.com

With many investors worried the price of gold could head lower, today King World News interviewed the “London Trader” to get his take on the gold market. The source stated, “The Chinese have continued to take delivery of both physical gold and silver directly from the ETF’s GLD and SLV. They are also going directly to producers. Entities are bypassing the COMEX altogether and going straight to gold mining companies. Every single month producers have a certain amount of gold and silver they sell. Normally they sell it to the bullion banks and the bullion banks, of course, leverage this gold and sell up to 100 times that in paper markets to control prices.”

The London Trader continues:

“They (bullion banks) hold that little bit of physical gold and claim they are backed up on their position to the CFTC. I have all my large buyers now going to producers and saying to them, ‘Look, don’t sell it to the bullion banks, we’ll buy it from you.’ So we are buying directly from the producers and this includes some sovereign entities which are doing the same thing.

We’re struggling to get the physical out of these guys (producers) because they have so many people banging on their door, saying, ‘Sell it to us direct.’ What these buyers are doing is essentially taking gold out of the system, which means the bullion banks can’t leverage that gold anymore.

So this is a huge, dynamic shift that wasn’t there before. Now we are working on one other thing. We’re beginning to offer them forward contracts. If you are a sovereign entity, what you are saying to these producers, especially on new projects, is, ‘Why don’t you sell the gold to me in 12 months? Here’s the cash, just provide it to me 12 months from now.’

These buyers are now cutting off future gold supply from the bullion banks....

“This is a huge, tectonic shift in price dynamics going forward because it is taking price discovery away from the bullion banks. These large Chinese buyers and sovereign entities which are doing this are going to have a massive impact on the market.

Interestingly, so many people are bearish on gold right now and looking for a collapse in the price of gold. They don’t understand what is happening in the physical market. The bullish fundamentals I just described to you have enormous implications.

We are making a historic bottom right now. The paper gold, or virtual gold market, has diverged so far from the physical market that it’s no longer a credible marketplace. That’s the key thing that came out of a very important meeting I was in yesterday where we had some serious players. The people I was meeting with are all on the buy side and have been since the lows last week.

There are massive physical orders, sitting, waiting for any more discounts, and yet everyone else seems to be short. So you have huge fuel for a rally here.

You have to keep in mind this recent plunge was orchestrated with borrowed gold and that borrowed gold is now gone. That’s why gold can’t go much lower. Any dips in price will be aggressively purchased. As I said earlier, right now we are witnessing a historic bottom.”

The London Trader previously told KWN on October 21st that China had purchased a massive amount of physical gold at the lows of the October 20th session. That marked the dead low for the price of gold in October and gold rallied roughly 10% in the following 8 trading sessions.

London Trader - There are Tremendous Silver Shortages

kingworldnews.com


King World News is receiving reports of significant waits for delivery of silver. Today King World News interviewed the “London Trader” to get his take on the situation. The source stated, “It is so tight, the silver market is so tight that we’ve been waiting three weeks plus, before this takedown, for deliveries of size to arrive. I’m talking about tonnage orders. This is also key, most of the silver being delivered was refined after the orders had been placed, and again, that was before the takedown. You can just imagine how long the wait times will be going forward.”

The London Trader continues:

“This game is getting so stretched that it’s going to break. You don’t think the Chinese know this stuff. If we get a close above the 200 day moving average in the mid 30’s on silver, watch silver immediately pop $2 or $3. Silver is totally incredible. There is nobody in COMEX silver contracts anymore, other than casino players. The only way they have been able to keep silver depressed is by borrowing silver from SLV to meet immediate demand. That’s the only reason silver isn’t trading $10 to $15 higher right now.

There isn’t enough silver for investors to buy (in large amounts) so they have been using SLV as a flywheel. SLV is over 20 million ounces short on the silver they are supposed to have in the vaults to back the shares which have been issued. The silver isn’t there. So there are people who purchased SLV to own physical silver, but all they have is shares that aren’t backed by the physical silver.

Part of managing the price of silver recently has been for the central banks to attack the gold market. But what is interesting is how this manipulation of the gold price was effected. Obviously, the bullion banks, which are working with the central banks, have inside knowledge as to the timing and just how much gold is going to be available to them.

So, in order for the bullion banks to maximize the effect of the physical gold they get from leasing, they add high scale paper leverage. They then short-sell just enough tranches of COMEX contracts to surgically take out three important support pivots....

“Each of those important support pivots that everyone is watching, like the 50 day moving average and so on, each one of those are taken out in the access market in the quiet trading, overnight, on three successive days. In other words, they take out these three important pivots, which turns the momentum buyers into sellers. It also gets a bunch of funds to start selling as well.

So using as little ammunition (physical gold) as possible, and in thinly traded markets, they take out these pivots. They smash the price, but leave just enough physical gold for going into the fixes because the smart buyers are saying, ‘I’ll take it at this price.’ So, as we go into the fix, they’ve provided just enough physical to satisfy as many of those buyers as they can. They then smash it right after the fix, again, with paper.

That’s what’s happened with gold and it’s the reason it has been manipulated down to these levels. It’s the only way they could do it, and it’s a sign of absolute desperation when central banks are willing to risk giving bullion banks gold they will never, ever receive back.

You don’t think the Chinese aren’t sitting here taking every single ounce of that leased gold? Of course they are. There were actually three enormous physical buy areas that they pierced, where, literally, there was tonnage ordered. I estimate well over 100 tons of physical gold was taken between the first pivot they broke, where these guys loaded up with discounted gold, and this stuff disappears from the West to the East.

These central banks had to be in desperation to allow this borrowed gold to be absorbed by foreign entities. They needed to raise dollars in a hurry and they are extremely afraid of gold going through the roof. I was very, very surprised they got as far as they did (driving gold lower). They had to use an awful lot of gold to do it.”

2011年12月20日 星期二

Martin Armstrong: Gold to Correct Through January

睇下又會唔會咁走先 ?

silverdoctors.blogspot.com

Martin Armstrong has published his latest outlook for gold, and Armstrong is looking for a continued correction through January down to the $1405 area.
Armstrong states only a year-end close below $1,058 would be bearish long term and signal a prolonged decline, while a 2011 close above $1704.20 is needed to continue gold's short term bull move.

The world may hold together until June. From then on it appears to be starting to go nuts going into 2014.
It is not fiat currency you must fear. It is government itself. So if you want to know why gold will eventually go up? It ain’t the fiat. Try good old fashion security from the enemy within.
December should have been a Directional Change. So far that looks to be on target. The Indicating Ranges for December are MOMENTUM 198010-163800, TREND 153950-107200, and LONG-TERM TREMD 163700-132870. This shows that the first level of support is at $1539, followed by $1328, and $1072. The Yearly number of $1405 also provides important underlining support.
The Weekly Bearish Reversals to now watch after 1604.00 are 1522.00 1405.00. As it currently stands, a decline into January is the most likely course of action. We can see a intra-day low form in February, however, January is still likely to be the lowest close.

2011年12月19日 星期一

青心直說:亂世下搵快錢變輸錢

蘋果日報

研究謂,豬為世界十大聰明動物之一,故此「豬咁蠢」乃謬誤。被封為豬而拒認為豬,正正愚者。大局已定,勝者為王,寄望真正大智若愚,既然有豬領群雄,且望繼續發揮豬的溫馴本性,最少賜民溫飽。

龍年將至,奈何龍也包括早早已絕迹的恐龍,來年奇蹟難現。人人悲觀時要樂觀,人人亢奮時要審慎,股神的傳統智慧,心恐也已過時。
刻下,樂觀指標欠奉,營營役役繼續,當年海耶克《通往奴役之路》巨著,指自由市場是明日新世界。
海嘯引證了自由市場已死,領袖技窮,更抵受不了市場威嚇,於是 3年來為選票而印鈔票,冀能學以致用,將量化寬鬆宏願輻射擴散。因此要選龍年最佳行業,吾等凡夫俗子首推機械,要數最有前途股份,印刷股以外也別無他選。

名家之言不可盡信

2011年,希望落空,預言家當日「先低後高」、「明天會更好」等等,通通都係騙人。現實中個個低頭兼通通改口,轉軚實錄,每日俱見,名家之言不可盡信,信自己才會得救。
並非自私,而是現實,所謂顧己及人,就係要先顧得了自己才再照顧別人,貫徹修身齊家之道。衣、食、住、行,百上加斤,身無長物者,望君多儲蠟燭,事關電費太貴,倒不如燭光浪漫。
當今亂世,冀搵快錢換來快輸錢下場。忠於自己屬第一忠誠,能者多勞,得一日三餐亦非難事。磚頭誠可貴,情義價更高,錯過買磚頭、賭金磚日子,懇請忘掉過去。
樓市陰乾,按揭分層混亂,官府有責。股市龍蛇混雜、妖股充斥,新年要進補繼續開卷有益,勤做功課,細心分析,人人可以渾水。各位切記保重身體,事關交易時間長又長,稍不留神,即被屠宰。

胡孟青

金正日逝世 朝鮮要求軍民忠於金正恩領導

世局更加不穩定 !

文匯報

【文匯網訊】據新華社援引朝中社19日報道,朝鮮最高領導人金正日17日逝世。

 報道說,金正日於17日8時30分在外出視察途中由於過度勞累在列車上逝世。

 朝中社的報道說,朝鮮勞動黨中央委員會、朝鮮勞動黨中央軍事委員會、朝鮮民主主義人民共和國國防委員會、最高人民會議常任委員會、內閣發表了《告全體黨員、人民軍官兵和人民書》,要求全體黨員、人民軍官兵和人民「忠於尊敬的金正恩同志的領導」,黨和人民軍隊以及人民保持團結。

 金正日因疲勞過度去世 享年69歲

 據中新網報道,韓聯援引朝鮮中央通訊社19日消息,朝鮮國防委員長金正日於17日上午8時30分,因疲勞過度,在列車上突然去世,享年69歲。

 朝中社報道說,金委員長於2011年12月17日8時30分,在前去現場指導的列車上,因身心過度疲勞而去世。

 資料顯示,金正日於1942年2月16日出生在中朝邊境白頭山密營,1950年9月至1960年就讀於平壤紅旗萬景台革命學院和平壤南山中學,1964年畢業於金日成綜合大學政治經濟系。

 1964年6月至1974年2月,金正日先後任朝鮮勞動黨中央委員會科長、副部長、部長、朝鮮勞動黨中央委員會書記、朝鮮勞動黨中央委員會政治委員會委員。從1980年10月起,他歷任朝鮮勞動黨中央委員會政治局常委、書記。1982年至1998年,他被選為歷屆朝鮮最高人民會議代表。1990年12月至1993年4月他先後擔任朝鮮人民軍最高司令官、國防委員會第一副委員長和委員長。1997年10月8日他出任朝鮮勞動黨總書記。1998年9月和2003年9月分別再次當選國防委員會委員長。2009年3月,金正日當選為第12屆最高人民會議代議員。同年4 月,金正日再次當選為國防委員會委員長。2010年9月,朝鮮勞動黨代表會議推舉金正日為朝鮮勞動黨總書記。

 金正日曾於1975年和1982年兩次被授予「共和國英雄」稱號。1992年4月他獲朝鮮民主主義人民共和國元帥稱號。他還曾三次被授予金日成勳章並獲得過金日成獎及其他勳章、獎章和稱號。

 金正日1983年曾訪問中國。2000年5月、2001年1月、2004年4月、2006年1月、2010年5月、2010年8月和2011年5月,他對中國進行了非正式訪問。 2011年8月,他途經並順訪中國東北地區。

2011年12月17日 星期六

Silver’s a bargain under $30, but watch volatility

www.marketwatch.com

By Myra P. Saefong, MarketWatch

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Silver is ready to finish a dramatic year near the level it started, and some analysts predict big gains, and heavy volatility, for the white metal in 2012.

“Silver went parabolic when it broke above $29 back in March of this year,” said James Carrillo, senior portfolio adviser for Swiss America Trading Corporation. “It fulfilled its parabolic blow off at $50 shortly thereafter and is now testing the break point.”

Silver futures closed at almost $49 an ounce in late April. After a whopping 7% drop on Wednesday, they’re trading back below $30. Read more on gold and silver futures.

“In the latter half of the year, panic selling at both the personal level and institutional level brought silver down as investors had increased anxiety over world economic events,” said Paul Mladjenovic, author of “Precious Metals Investing for Dummies.”

The white metal hasn’t held up as well as gold because silver’s dual nature kicks in, he said. “Since silver is also an industrial metal and silver is a smaller market, panic selling has a more pronounced effect and the moves are more violent.”

“When people need money to cover margin increases, debt or other liability, they will sell and silver was part of this dynamic,” said Mladjenovic. But “nothing changed in the fundamentals for silver — they, in fact, keep getting better.”

Futures prices for gold are poised to end the year with a gain of around 11%, while silver’s trading 5% lower — which would be its smallest year-on-year decline since 2001, according to data from FactSet Research. Starting in 2002, silver had gained every year except 2008.

If prices hold above $28, silver may “resume its upward march next year,” said Carrillo.

“I would be a buyer of physical gold and silver at these levels, with gold being massively supported at $1,500 and silver at $28,” he said.

Bargain buying

Still, investors may need a little more convincing than usual these days regarding the outlook for silver. Read about Wednesday’s metals plunge.

Silver futures lost 7.4% on Wednesday, as gold futures fell nearly 5%. Month to date, silver has already dropped 11%.

“This week’s sharp declines in silver prices have generally washed out the speculative long positions,” said Carrillo. “The damage to the long term trend is now clearly visible, although the market is now grossly oversold.”

Should silver snap back in the short term, however, “as should be expected, and it closes the month of December above the $31 level, it should be viewed as a major buying opportunity,” he said.

On the other hand, if prices close below $31 at month end, “approach silver cautiously in the near term since a fall below that level “violates the long term trend and major support won’t appear until nearing the $20 level,” he said.

But while some focus on silver price levels for outlook guidance, others look toward the metal’s past actions.

Colin Hayward, who’s been a precious metals investor for more than 30 years, said the odds greatly favor silver finding a bottom in the short term, within the next one month to three months, considering the “extreme pessimism of silver bugs today.” Silver will then begin a run similar to what occurred after the 2008 “correction.”

When the commodities sector bottomed in 2008, silver bottomed around $9 and then marched all the way to $49 over the next 31 months, representing a rise of over 5.5 times — “a bull market advance if ever there was one,” he said, adding that gold’s advance was about 2.8 times or around half that of silver’s.

Silver is a bargain below $30, said Hayward, who’s also president of Gearology, which sells gold- and silver-themed consumer products. “Buying silver under $30 today is like buying it at $5 ten years ago.”’
‘Kissing cousins’

Still, investors shouldn’t expect a straight climb in silver. It’s still as volatile as ever and its moves will continue to be closely tied to gold.

John O’Donnell, chief knowledge officer for Online Trading Academy, said the “global deflation forces” are cause for silver’s price weakness and he expects silver to decline to $26-$27 before it finds any substantial price support.

And looking further ahead, by the fourth quarter of next year, he expects a return to the $35 price level, and then more selling pressure.

Peter Grandich, editor of The Grandich Letter, meanwhile, turned bearish on silver when it traded at the $50 level this year. Read about the mania in silver earlier this year.

Even so, Grandich expects both gold and silver to have at least double-digit gains in 2012, with gold likely to be the better performer.

“Silver continues to be more a base metal than precious [metal], but because of its ‘kissing cousin’ relationship with gold, it shall ride gold’s coattails and occasionally lead the way,” he said.

Others were even more upbeat.

With silver oversold during the second half of 2011, Mladjenovic expects to see a strong rebound in the metal, which could take out $50 during the first half of 2012 and during the rest of the next year, see support at that level and challenge the $60 level by the fall.

“Demand for physical silver is relentless as individual buyers across the globe and industrial buyers in Asia continue taking advantage of silver’s relatively low price,” said Mladjenovic, who believes this “will overcome the paper market’s current pullback.”

“If demand changes or if the manipulation lawsuit is resolved (or both), you could see silver in the $75-$100 range,” he said, referring to the ongoing Commodity Futures Trading Commission investigation of possible manipulation in silver markets.
Silver vs. gold

But both gold and silver each have their own great potential to see higher prices in the new year.

“Supply constraints, permitting challenges, increasing costs, lack of talented geologists and engineers, and costs of building a mine that have escalated over the last 10 years are all factors that should keep gold and silver prices high,” said Malcolm Gissen, co-manager of the Encompass Fund.

He thinks silver and gold prices will rise in 2012 as economies in China and India recover, with a better quality of life likely leading to more purchases of gold and silver.

As for the better pick, Edmond Bugos, director of mining finance at Strategic Metals Research & Capital, would choose silver.

He doesn’t expect the European Union will collapse in the short term. German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government will get its way on the fiscal side and give the European Central Bank a “green light” so the economic outlook will improve for a time, and investors could start buying riskier assets again, he said.

Bugos also likes silver because Sprott Asset Management recently filed a shelf prospectus for the issue of $1.5 billion worth of units for the Sprott Physical Silver Trust. That could provide a hefty boost to silver demand and prices.

“That doesn’t mean Sprott’s Chief Executive Offer Eric Sprott will raise this capital, but “it puts all the legalities in place so that if he decides to do the issue, it can happen overnight,” said Bugos.

Terry Hanlon, president of Dillon Gage Metals, on the other hand, would choose gold over silver.

Gold’s long term prospects remain strong as demand should further rise, while growth in world supplies remain limited,” he said. “Continued uncertainty about the U.S., European and other economies will clearly keep investors interested in precious metals in 2012” and gold could reach $2,000 next year.

Still, Hanlon said investors should give silver, and platinum, a look as well, because of the industrial components and jewelry and investment aspects of demand for those metals.

島內投資者搶金 一天30億元

黃金牛市就快來 ?

文匯報

香港文匯報訊 台北消息:國際金融情勢動盪,金價、銀價暴跌,台灣人逢低大買黃金。據金融界人士透露,15日台灣投資者透過銀行體系就搶進價值約新台幣30億元黃金,瘋狂程度為2008年金融海嘯以來僅見。

 國際金價9月6日飆到每盎司1920美元歷史天價;後來逐步走跌,15日最低跌至1564美元,不到3個月,每盎司暴跌356美元。

 15日有一位投資者在銀行黃金存摺買進逾1億5千萬元新台幣黃金,創島內開辦黃金存摺業務以來單日最大量,「大戶級投資者一口氣狂買上千萬元」,「股市太慘了,大家改買黃金避險。」

2011年12月16日 星期五

股匯上季勁虧 港外匯基金蝕408億

2011年

  • 投資股票 - 蝕 (長揸都要蝕, 除非你是在恒指 8000-15000 買的優質股)

  • 投資外幣 - 歐元/英鎊 蝕, 澳元/日元/瑞朗 賺

  • 手持實金 - 賺 (除非你是在 1600-1900 時才開始買貨)

  • 手持實銀 - 今年才開始買貨要蝕, 除咗一些記念幣, 因為發行量少, 所以價格高企 ! 2010年或之前買的實銀是賺錢的 !

  • 投資物業收租 - 除咗新起豪宅, 大多數是賺錢的 !


文匯報

香港文匯報訊(記者周紹基)受股票及外匯投資勁蝕拖累,外匯基金第三季錄得408億元虧損,為去年第二季以來首次錄得虧損。首三季計,外匯基金只賺56億元。對於全年能否有正回報,金管局總裁陳德霖昨表示,希望市場未來數周減少波動。他又指,宏觀經濟不明朗,明年本港經濟下行風險正在增加,重申會密切留意市況,時刻檢討樓市措施。

 大市波動,令外匯基金由去年第三季勁賺741億元,變成今年第三季勁蝕408億元,也是連續兩季倒退,並將上半年累積的464億元盈利,蝕去了約90%,僅剩下56億元。綜觀今年第三季外匯基金表現,其中港股蝕287億元,外國股票蝕375億元,外匯投資也蝕去201億元,但期內債券價格上升,有462億元盈利,抵銷掉部分虧損。然而一旦第四季市場表現續差,首三季的56億元收益隨時消失。

 對於全年能否保住有正數回報,陳德霖昨表示,今年尚未完結,唯有希望市場未來數周減少波動,但他拒絕透露第四季的基金表現,謂要到明年1月才公布。雖然外匯基金第三季大蝕,但根據分賬機制,基金仍向財政儲備撥出92億元,令今年首三季累計撥款達275億元。

拒透露第四季基金表現

 陳德霖續稱,今年市場情緒反覆,極容易由樂觀轉為悲觀,並且仍會持續交替下去。總的來說,就是宏觀經濟不明朗,明年本港經濟下行風險正在增加,從國際貿易、金融市場兩方面影響香港。在環球經濟不明朗下,本港難以獨善其身,他認為,只要本港避免過度借貸,當局與銀行一同把關,確保銀行體系穩健,便可減低歐債危機對本港的衝擊。

重申時刻檢討樓市措施

 至於樓市方面,陳德霖表示,自從本港四度推出遏抑樓市炒風措施後,樓市已有所降溫,10月本港樓價較6月高峰期下跌3.6%,住宅按揭統計調查亦顯示,10月新批出貸款宗數比上年平均跌5成,他重申該局會密切留意市場情況,時刻檢討樓市措施。但他拒絕回應會否放寬樓市措施,或短期內改變額外樓宇印花稅的政策。

 他續指,銀行貸款增速自7月開始放緩,9月貸款按月增長11%,10月僅增7%,但內地及歐美信貸仍然緊縮,本港銀行貸存比率持續高企,相信銀行息口仍有上升壓力。

 另外,本港人民幣存款已有逾6,000億元,陳德霖指其出路不多,但自FDI出台後,銀行反映申請人民幣貸款宗數增加,人民幣亦可回流內地,用作注資或還債。至於可否作為企業營運資金,他表示會與人行討論,提升有關措施的彈性。

惠譽降歐5大行評級

文匯報

歐債危機未見紓緩,國際評級機構惠譽( 下圖)繼早前稱將檢討歐元區核心國家評級後,前日出手將歐洲5大銀行的投資評級下調1級,原因是銀行業整體面臨更大阻力,前景不容樂觀。其中一間被降級的法國農業信貸集團,前日發出盈警,並宣布全球裁員2,350人。

 惠譽將法國農業信貸集團等3家銀行的長期發行人違約評級由「AA-」下調至「A+」,而丹麥銀行評級由「A+」下調至「A」,荷蘭Rabobank評級則由「AA+」下調至「AA」。丹麥銀行的評級展望被列為「負面」,其餘4家銀行為「穩定」。

 惠譽稱,外界擔心歐債沒完沒了,加上歐洲各國緊縮措施對銀行業(尤其南歐及愛爾蘭商業銀行)帶來直接衝擊,故作出下調評級決定。惠譽特別指出,法國農業信貸銀行及丹麥銀行的附屬公司,對歐元區財困國的風險敞口較高,不過該5家銀行的資本及流動性地位不斷改善,避免評級進一步下調。然而,資本市場未能有效運作,危機正拖累經濟放緩,並間接損害借貸者的利益。

 歐洲銀行業面對逆風,營運陷入困境。法國農業信貸集團前日發盈警,並宣布全球裁員2,350人,當中法國為「重災區」,約850人被裁。該行表示,旗下近期轉型服務主要客戶的投資銀行Cacib將裁員1,750人,另外600個職位來自消費金融業務。

 該行表示,集團主要上市公司因資產額外減記25億歐元(約253億港元)而出現虧損,雖然集團於本年頭9個月仍錄得33億歐元(約334億港元)純利,但董事會決定不向股東派息。此外,該行又宣布將退出21個國家的零售業務。

德商業銀行或求救

 法國農業信貸銀行的盈警,加上另一邊廂的德國商業銀行正避免接受政府援助,反映全球金融系統再面臨繃緊局面。投資者關注歐洲領袖未能提出有效措施應對危機,持有大量歐洲國家債券的銀行,蒙受巨額損失的風險未除,歐洲銀行體系可能陷入癱瘓。澳洲 Westpac銀行前日警告,若危機持續,該國銀行獲得信貸的額度和成本難免受影響。

大摩將裁員1600人

 昨日再有華爾街大行傳出裁員消息,摩根士丹利宣布,由於銀行業盈利減少,將於明年首季在全球裁減1,600人。 ■路透社/綜合外電消息/《華爾街日報》

2011年12月15日 星期四

陳德霖提醒市民投資要小心從事量力而為

hk.news.yahoo.com

金管局總裁陳德霖提醒市民,在經濟前景不明朗下,投資要抱「小心從事,量力而為」的態度,無論置業抑或投資,都不要過度供貸,因為市場變化大,好景不常,利率升跌可能超出投資者預期,因此個人應小心行事,而香港整體而言,就要自保自強。

歐元快喘定 新春後再插

蘋果日報

美滙指數日前突破 80,技術上似突破頭肩底之頸線,量度升幅為與今年 5月低位 73之差,即 80+( 80- 73)= 87。無獨有偶, 2009年初延伸至明年上半年的阻力亦近 87;兩個指標互相確認,增加了 87之可信性。至於時間,三年前後的拼圖顯示 4月到達。不過在此之前,拼圖亦指美滙將於本月在稍高於 80先短暫見頂,急回後才再度急升。
反轉 來看,乃歐元於算三上下應暫喘定,農曆年後才再插水;同樣也以頭肩頂看,以今年 5月的 1.49為頭、去年 10月及今年 10月為肩、 1.31為頸,向下量度直指 1.13。如以 2008年的支持延伸至今,則明年 4月應得 1.13水平,兩者也互確認。早前有拼圖測 1.25上下見底,可見 1.25及 1.13兩個皆為目標;農曆年後才造淡者,概可分段收水。

日圓料持續橫行

金價的敏感三角日前向下突破,料試 1520± 50美元之橫行區;而這對應於歐元見 1.25。若歐元見 1.13,則對應之金價恐是 1370± 50美元之再上一次橫行區。澳元較堅,目前同處敏感三角但未突破,估計農曆年前後美滙回插後再升,屆時澳元才見突破。
美元兌日圓跌過一輪後已橫行數月,料會持續;而美元兌人民幣也有類似現象。

羅家聰
交通銀行香港分行市場部

資金避險流去美元

金銀股匯油都跌 !

Review of the Paper Futures Implications of the HSBC Gold/Silver Lawsuit

紙金紙銀的風險, 就算你想收取實貨, 原來批貨已俾人當衍生工具賣咗出去 !
依家就打緊官司, 睇貨屬誰 ?


silverdoctors.blogspot.com

With gold and silver paper futures being smashed this morning, we thought it would be a good time to remind readers of the possible paper futures dumping that The Doc predicted this past Sunday as a result of the HSBC lawsuit over gold/silver rehypothecation. Along with liquidity fears over Europe, this likely could be a large part of the current paper rout.

With less than an hour until gold and silver trading opens on the Globex, we will soon find out what, if any, HSBC's lawsuit against the MF Global trustee and Jason Fine has on gold and silver futures prices.
For those who missed it, Jason Fine, an MF Global client, demanded delivery for 5 gold contracts (500 ounces) and 3 silver contracts (15,000 ounces) from HSBC, the custodian of the metal. Fine had used the warehouse receipts of his PHYSICAL METAL on deposit at HSBC as collateral for his account at MF Global. MF Global's liquidation trustee James Giddens (i.e. Jamie Dimon) said WHOA THERE PARDNER!, NO CAN DO! MF Global rehypothecated your gold and silver collateral when it purchased CDS contracts from us, so we'll be taking the delivery of said gold and silver thanks to our SENIOR creditor status. HSBC subsequently filed suit Friday against both Jason Fine and the MFG trustee, in effect to allow a judge decide who gets the phyzz.
This weekend has seen rampant speculation that the markets will open with a collapse in GLD, and a spike in gold and silver, as all the paper holders rush to get out of paper gold and into phyzz.
Personally, The Doc disagrees.
From how I understand it, the lawsuit doesn't mean anything- yet. The real fireworks should come when the judge decides whether the phyzz belongs to the actual holder of the futures contracts, or the counter-party of the CDS contracts purchased with Fine's rehypothecated collateral by MFG.
This could play out in 3 ways:

1. Judge orders Phyzz liquidated for cash, and all parties receive a haircut and a portion of the assets. This is most likely in The Doc's opinion- and at this point, holders of futures contracts may well panic and dump futures positions for phyzz, causing a collapse in COMEX futures prices of phyzz, with a corresponding evaporation of physical inventory as the physical metal becomes unavailable.
2. Judge rules in favor of Jason Fine, and all phyzz is delivered to the rightful owner. JP Morgan instantly panics, crashes paper futures prices, and scoops up all available phyzz. Least likely outcome in my mind.
3. Judge rules in favor of MFG Trusee James Giddens (i.e. Jamie Dimon, Blythe Masters, and The Morgue). Jason Fine told to F*** off, you are an unsecured creditor as JP Morgan holds senior status to your rehypothecated collateral/ assets. For aftermath, see No. 1 only magnified 100 fold. Futures traders instantly lose all confidence in the system, and the COMEX implodes not from a delivery default, but from a loss of confidence among futures traders.

I may be wrong, but I don't see an outcome to this that results in PAPER gold and silver prices rocketing. All three possible outcomes seem to mean major sell-offs in the PAPER futures markets, while at the same time, physical inventory dries up and becomes unavailable. Again, it appears to me that this is more likely to happen when the judge makes a ruling in the case, rather than imminently on the announcement of the lawsuit. I could be wrong, as should a futures trader similarly think through the likely possible outcomes of this HSBC suit, the smart ones will get out now and not wait for a verdict. We'll see whether the speculative futures traders panic now, or wait for the handwriting on the wall before they panic and attempt to get out. My money is they'll wait for the handwriting on the wall, Belshazzar style, when it's too late to get out!

2011年12月14日 星期三

Blog 改發佈時間


click[新文章] ---->click [修改文章]---->選想編輯的文章 click [編輯] ---->左下方 click [張貼選貢]----> 就出現上面的圖

在右面可以改現時的日期和時間, 而時間上午或下午, 鐘數 1至 12 (唔用13至24), 之後發佈文章就可以啦 !
左下方可以改俾唔俾人回應或最下面個個 hidden 回應 !

2011年12月13日 星期二

團購銀幣流程

12/10晚12點前:samuel更新價格完成(用於計算團友匯款金額)
12/10晚12點:選購截止
12/10晚12點:最後提交確認協議書這個要改前面說的時間提前半日)
12/10晚12點01分:samuel修改網頁為唯讀
12/11:旺旺向團友發送銀行帳戶英文名和帳戶號碼,以及5位數字特別認證碼和手機號碼。
12/13晚12點前:團友繳款,而把銀行收據電郵俾旺旺; 須在入數紙上寫上團購名和手機號碼及旺旺確認收款。過時者剔出本次團購。
接下去旺旺和APMEX聯係,確認訂單,付款。此後旺旺計算每個人實際費用。
收到Fedex快遞的第一個周日網聚分銀幣+結算。

Gold Bull & Germany Flirting with Depression

kingworldnews.com


With gold trading lower by almost 3% and silver off more than $1, today King World News interviewed acclaimed money manager Stephen Leeb, Chairman & Chief Investment Officer of Leeb Capital Management. When asked about the action in gold, Leeb responded, “It doesn’t make a lot of sense to see the world coming apart and gold going down. We are seeing liquidation by some hedge funds and maybe even banks to some extent that need liquidity. You have to go back to 2008 and I think the drop in 2008 was probably in the neighborhood of 30% and then gold just started taking off again.”

Stephen Leeb continues:

“The catalyst after the drop in 2008 was recognition there were problems that had to be solved by extraordinary means. And once that was recognized, gold just shot up like a missile and really didn’t look back. I think this is probably a similar kind of correction, except now it’s not the US financial system that is in peril, it’s the eurozone that’s in peril.

The treaty or so-called treaty they struck last week is a joke. To assume countries that have been fighting for 300 years, and share absolutely nothing culturally, are suddenly going to come together and sign a piece of paper and all agree to think alike, it’s crazy.

What I think will happen, one way or the other, is Germany will decide it’s going to have to print money. That’s really the only way out. You have to have growth or you are never going to get rid of these deficits.

People can only cut back to a certain extent. If they start cutting back on food and energy you impoverish the entire population. You are seeing some of that in the US right now. A large portion of our population in the US is spending over 50% of their money on food and energy. Clearly the numbers are high in Europe too....

“What’s remarkable here, Eric, is the Germans have this long-standing inflationary fear. We all know it stems from the 1920s and the hyperinflation during the Weimar Republic and the wheelbarrows of money, etc.. But it wasn’t the hyperinflation in the ‘20s that laid the foundation for Hitler, that wasn’t the catalyst for Hitler. It was the depression in the 1930s, the protracted depression that made possible the rise of Hitler.

So the Germans are really flirting with the same kind of situation that occurred in the 1930s. If Europe continues to sink and the Germans don’t relent on this stuff we are going to head for a real deflationary depression.

My big picture is that Merkel and the Germans will allow the printing of money and once that happens, just as it happened in 2008, once you get a sign, that’s blastoff time for gold. Gold and silver will shoot up like rockets. In my opinion gold will close 2012 at $2,500 or above, probably above. Gold could easily double from here in the next 12 months if you get the kind of money printing that I expect to happen in Europe.

So how low gold will go here is literally meaningless. My advice to investors is don’t try to catch a bottom and be a hero. It could happen any time. It could be happening as we speak, it could be happening today. But it’s really irrelevant. Let’s say gold is at $3000, $4,000 or $5,000 in three or four years, which I think is very, very likely--are you really even going to remember that it went to $1,650 or $1,550? No.”

美元又轉強


金銀油股匯通通下跌 !

想買的銀幣又平多些, 正 !

2011年12月10日 星期六

團購銀幣建議

大家自己整個 list 自己訂咗D乜和產品用幾多USD來計, 為以後可以同旺旺對數她用幾多USD買咗 ! 運費Samuel 已在google 幫大家計咗, 加上去再乘8, 就知要轉幾多錢俾旺旺 !
寄入數紙俾旺旺時, 加個 list 入 e-mail 度, 咁旺旺可以check 多次 !

記得在飯局時帶呢個list 出去對數 !
唔係唔信Samuel 的excel doc, 不過只驚出咗錯, 所以dubble check 好D !

中國出手救歐美,歐美股市應聲大漲

tw.money.yahoo.com

【時報-各報要聞】在歐債危機未解、全球經濟衰退風險大增的情勢下,根據路透昨(9)日引述北京消息,中國官方已批准中國人民銀行(中國央行)籌建新的外匯投資機構,初始資本規模約達3,000億美元,以「華美」及「華歐」兩大基金,進軍歐美市場。

中國此舉被市場解讀為將分頭對歐美兩大市場出手救市,以3,000億美元投資基金買進歐美資產,協助歐美度過不穩的債務危機。

而受此刺激,周五原本走勢遲緩的歐洲股市精神一振,全面翻揚,德、法等歐洲主要股市漲幅都在1%以上。美股周五也告大漲,道瓊指數上揚逾百點。密西根大學12月消費者信心指數,意外升至67.7,創6月以來新高,也有助漲勢。

周 五歐股與歐元走勢震盪,主要是因為之前歐盟高峰會尋求化解歐債危機的協議並無新意,使市場失望。不過有專家指出,在該協議中,包括歐元區在內的歐盟國家同 意對國際貨幣基金(IMF)提供貸款,供其對歐元區債務國住行紓困,有助中國與巴西等新興國家對其伸出援手。專家指出,歐盟此一決定將使中國等新興國家提 供援助意願升高。

中國過去對外投資主力是2007年9月成立的主權財富基金─中國投資公司,中投董事長樓繼偉在日前訪歐時表示,中投有意投資以英國為首的歐洲國家基礎建設,並且是涉及股權的投資。中投的表態,顯示中方將採取新的計畫進入歐洲市場。

而昨日傳出由中國人民銀行籌設的這家外匯投資機構,目前營運方 式不得而知,只知總部將選在上海,並將利用發債方式籌集資金,也就是在中國市場發行人民幣債券,然後用籌集的人民幣資金從人行或其他銀行機構購買外匯用以海外投資。

報導指出,「華美」及「華歐」這兩大基金運作將類似中國外管局在香港設立的投資公司運作的華安基金。華安基金主要投資為海外市場的股票和債券等。

今 年4月人行行長周小川就曾表示,「誰都知道雞蛋不應該放在同一個籃子裡」,表示中國應設立新投資機構,讓巨額外匯存底擁有更好投資收益。截至今年9月底, 中國外匯存底餘額逾3.2兆美元,曾有訊息,龐大外匯存底中有三分之二投資於美元計價資產。為分散投資風險,已經將五分之一外匯存底投資於歐元資產。

(新聞來源:工商時報─記者黃欣、王曉伯/綜合報導)

2011年12月9日 星期五

參於金銀幣團購條例

各位團友,因爲團購之金額巨大,及存在市場、團友、貨源、
品質等諸多風險,為保障團友的共同利益,大家須先就以下規則達成共識,才能最終確認參與。

網友團購APMEX貴金屬產品協議書v1.2(供簽署)

(1)網友自願參與團購APMEX貴金屬產品,旺旺為一致公認的操作人,所有款項 將先預付給旺旺以支付給APMEX。旺旺會在團友付款前告知英文真實姓名和供轉帳的銀行戶口。此預付行爲不構成任何形式的非法集資和欺詐。任何團友無權要 求旺旺提供家庭及公司地址。為策安全,任何團友切勿在公開場合和向任何非本團成員透露團購詳情包括但不限於團購網頁,團購金額,訂購進程,到貨日期,網聚 時間和地點等。

(2)因爲團購之金額巨大,及存在市場等風險,團友須以email形式向旺旺ahwong99@yahoo.com.hk確認同意 以下各項説明。email名稱為“用戶登記名稱:確認APMEX團購協議書”,其中用戶登記名稱必須為團購登記網頁上的名稱,如“Lisa”。在2011 年12月10日晚上12點整前未收到確認信的團友將被取消本次團購資格,切記!在確認信中需要提供個人手機號碼為約飯局時用來聯絡。此擧不構成任何侵犯個 人隱私。所有團友的email地址和資料只用作本次團購,不可用於其他任何商業目的和本次團購之外的任何目的。任何團友不得向其他人透露和傳播團友的 email地址和其他任何信息。

(3)Samuel義務為此次團購設計專用登記網頁和提供技術支持。團購登記網頁由旺旺獨家向團友發放,任何團友 不得在任何場合向其他任何人士透露本次登記網頁。Samuel會不定期導出網頁的本地存檔以防止網頁崩潰或被篡改的不良後果,各團友也可自行導出備案。 Samuel將盡力維護網頁,但因第一次使用google自由文檔,如有任何技術問題發生而導致團購延誤,Samuel無須承擔任何責任。本次團購借用 Lisa的blog作前期聯絡用,所有相關討論將在團購解説后刪除。Lisa不對blog技術問題引發的任何後續問題承擔任何責任,也無邀請任何人加入團 購,而所有參於團購是參於者自願的。所有blog貼文和回復不構成任何形式的邀約和廣告,亦不構成對任何特定幣种的推薦和投資價值評定,團友須根據個人喜 好自行決定訂購之產品類別和數量。所有有關規則之網上討論如與本協議書不同,以本協議書為准。

(4)訂購期:即日起至2011年12月10日晚 12點整,團友可自由登入團購登記網頁下訂單,個人只可更改自己的訂單以及在readme頁面留言,嚴禁修改overview頁面和其他團友的訂單。唯 IT支援Samuel可修改overview頁面並更新各團友個人頁面中的幣种及説明,在此過程中嚴禁Samuel更改其他團友個人訂單中的訂購數量。

(5) 凍結期:訂購截止后團購登記網頁將暫時轉爲私人網頁,待Samuel根據2011年12月9日美國收盤情況,從APMEX更新價格並計算網友應預付金額。 計算完成后,團購登記網頁將重新以唯讀形式開放。屆時如有任何問題請在Lisa網站提出,唯通常情況下不接受更改和取消訂單。

(6)預付款計算:以Overview頁面統計的美元價格x8作爲預付的港幣金額。採用此匯率選擇已考慮到預支的APMEX收取的運費和其他費用,電匯APMEX的銀行手續費,以及可能的稅費。團友須接受預付按此計算的全部費用后才能確認訂單。

(7) 繳款期:團購網頁重新開放直至2011年12月14日晚上12點。團友只有已經簽署確認協議書后方可從旺旺処獲得其個人真實英文姓名和銀行賬號。團友必須 嚴格保密旺旺的個人資料,如有洩漏保留追訴的權力。請在轉帳存根清晰寫上用戶登記名稱后影相或掃描,用和確認協議書同一電子郵箱發送email給旺旺作 準。旺旺須回信確認,email名稱統一為“確認收到APMEX貴金屬團購預付款”。或可用任何事先與旺旺協商雙方同意的方式提交轉帳證明和獲取收款證 明,唯須各自保留商討過程之證據以防未來可能之爭執。旺旺將在回復中提供5位數字/字母的特別驗證碼以供取貨時確認團友身份。團友有完全責任保密個人特別 驗證碼。

(8)訂單作廢:如在繳費期内未預付全數費用則訂單作廢,如已部分支付金額會全數退回,唯產生之任何銀行等手續費用由違約未預付全款者承擔。如無大多數團友認可的理由,違約者將永久取消參與之後任何團購的資格。

(9) 向APMEX落訂單:旺旺會盡量在收齊款項后的一周内向APMEX下訂單並匯款去APMEX,最終價格以落單為准。因本次團購訂單數量大品種多,部分幣种 可能售迄,香港並非APMEX官方認可的運貨地區,時差存在,所以在和APMEX之client交流落單可能需時超過預期,請團友給予旺旺理解支持和寬 容!任何人不得對旺旺落單的時機和最終價格表示異議,本次團購操作者不是貴金屬交易員,無任何責任和能力把握市場波動。

(10)最終價格:團購的 最終價格包括APMEX訂單,APMEX運輸和其他附加費用,電匯APMEX的銀行手續費,和可能的稅費。所有折算成港幣之費用以電匯銀行提供的單據存根 為唯一依據,團友不可對電匯行的選擇(目前定為恆生或中銀香港),電匯匯率,和銀行手續費提出異議。各團友須支付的最終費用包括以以上電匯匯率計算的貴金 屬產品價值以及分攤的運費和銀行手續費。運費:所有團友運費首先記作USD50/團友人數+USD0.30/件產品。如運費超過USD50+0.30x產 品件數,則超出部分由所有訂購10件或以上的團友合共平均分攤。以上件數計算不考產品重量和價值,即1/2oz和10oz同价,投資幣和收藏幣同价。銀行 手續費由所有團友平均分攤。如發生其它任何未知之額外費用(如海關稅費等),由全體團友平均分攤。如最終費用多於預訂費用,團友須補足全部差價后才可領取 貴金屬產品,不得以少提取部分產品作爲免除差價的代價。

(11)市場波動風險:如金銀價格相對以12月9日美國收市釐定的預付價格發生波動(例如 歐洲峰會后大幅上升),亦屬於不可抗因素。在銀价$35以下不會再行統計團友意向而會繼續向APMEX下單。團友在提取銀幣時必須首先補足向上之差額給旺 旺,以免發生不必要的爭吵。如銀价超出$35則本團暫停訂購,討論下一步行動。任何貴金屬價格向下之差額利益歸屬各團友個人。

(12)團友變動風 險:如果在周六封鎖訂單后,有團友不匯款而退出,導致某些幣种達不到優惠需要的數量(如1oz需要20枚,2oz龍需要10枚),各團友一致同意支付由此 被提高的的價格(通常是每枚1oz銀幣0.5美元,2oz龍是5美元)給APMEX,而不得再另行更改個人訂單(無論是減少或增加數量)。唯旺旺在落單給 APMEX時候有權增加她自己的訂購數量(絕不可減少)以再次滿足優惠條件。此規則目的是儘快完成訂購以規避市場變動風險。

(13)貨源風險:數量有限的幣种在旺旺向APMEX最終落單時可能已售罄或達不到團友訂購的總數,旺旺不爲此承擔任何責任和損失補償。已經繳付的費用會在交貨日退還。

(14) 限量分配規則:如APMEX最終訂單確認的某幣种之數量少於網友登記的總量,啓動限量分配規則。所有登記該幣种之團員,按照{旺 旺,Lisa,Samuel,chihou,Sam鬍鬚 仔,ket_Kelvin,Keith,Agnes,AlexFan,NLP,Vivi,liulissat,小 c9,JohnnyLam,Tat,Toki,Jay,新人LEO,honson,小初哥}之順序進行分配。所有登記訂購此幣种者才可以參與分配序列,每 輪高順位者優先獲取一枚產品,如達到個人訂購數量則退出分配序列。此分配直至全部產品分發完畢爲止。唯第一個提出訂購該幣种者在第一輪分配中有絕對優先 權,此後各輪則不再有優先權而按照前述順序分配。此優先權在團購登記網頁上標明,不得有異議。分配過程須保留書面記錄。

(15)品質風險:如APMEX提供之貴金屬產品之品相達不到團友期望,旺旺不承擔任何責任。如有大家都不希望收取的產品,則以公平抽籤形式選出各人收取之最終產品,任何人不得有異議。團友抽籤后必須收取最終產品,不設退貨退款。抽籤過程須保留書面記錄。

(16) 產品提取:從APMEX收到產品后的第一個周末舉行網聚,現場開封FeDex包裝。任何團友嚴禁向其他任何人洩露網聚時間和地點。首先由Lisa和旺旺負 責清點完所有幣种數量完畢后才能開始進行分配。歡迎各團友觀看清點過程,但除以上兩人外,任何其他團友在清點過程中不得以任何形式接觸貴金屬產品及包裝, 不得要求在網聚清點前完成前提取貴金屬產品。為保障團友隱私,當日不得以任何形式拍攝錄像或照片。當日不能到現場者,仍可委託其他團友或自動參與限量分配 和品質抽籤唯不得對結果提出異議,並儘快和旺旺聯絡提取,不可讓其他人代領取貴金屬幣。各團友須就每項幣种逐一簽名證實已取貨,每人的簽名表為一張A4 紙,存在相同的三份,分別由旺旺、團友和Lisa作爲供貨、提貨、公證方保留。屆時旺旺會採用事先提供的特殊驗證碼確認團友身份,請務必記住個人驗證碼。 為增加網聚當日之活躍氣氛,如有APMEX提供之免費膠筒,如全筒為同一种銀幣則由訂購者公平抽籤決定歸屬;如全筒包括多種銀幣,則由全體團友公平抽籤。 唯2012楓葉幣之圓筒不參與分配,直接歸屬訂購25枚者所有。

(17)凡同意以上所有各條規則者,在簽署協議書后才能獲得參與本次團購的資格。

2011年12月10日

本人同意以上團購條例並且簽署:
團購網頁登記名稱(填寫)________________
手機號碼(填寫)___________________




請在星期六12月10日晚上十二點前copy以上文在 e-mail 中 send 俾旺旺 ahwong99@yahoo.com.hk



由 Samuel 於 2011年12月8日下午11:05 張貼在 Lisa's Investment Talk

銀行水緊 貼息借金

文匯報

歐債危機令歐元區銀行信貸緊縮、集資困難,即使6大央行早前聯手救市,現金流動性問題仍愈來愈大。歐洲銀行尤其是法國及意大利銀行,過去一周積極借出黃金換取美元,即使出現「負利率」,仍要擴充手頭現金,以應付歐洲銀行管理局(EBA)的集資要求。

 據湯森路透數據,黃金出租息率近日跌至歷史低位,一個月出租息率跌至-0.57厘,即銀行反而需要付息,才能換取現金。有銀行家表示,聯儲局與5大央行聯手,大削美元借貸成本,向市場提供流動性,但黃金借出仍然嚴重,情況令人費解。

歐銀貸款3,335億救急

 評級機構標準普爾前日將歐盟長期信貸評級列入「負面」觀察名單,進一步打擊歐元區銀行,歐洲央行宣布,區內銀行已向緊急措施借貸320億歐元(約3,335億港元),是市場預期的5倍,規模之大令人憂慮。  

■《衛報》/英國《金融時報》

今晚又大波幅


美元升, 銀價跌, 益我地團購 !

2011年12月8日 星期四

團購銀幣回應新 thread

Lisa,
個thread太長了,超過200. 下下要睇最新留言好煩. 開一個new thread 好嗎?
我都同意你的建議, 跟著的訂購, 我會選擇性用電郵覆大家, 這雖然對我說來是頗為不便的, 因為太多來回既回應, 會令到跟進電郵好難.

旺旺

RAM Silver Kangaroo 發行量

Royal Australia Mint Silver Kangaroo 數據來之 Apmex 和 Kitco Forum

1993年 - 72,853枚
1994年 - 44,996枚
1995年 - 72,850枚
1996年 - 49,398枚
1997年 - 72,850枚
1998年 - 49,398枚
1999年 - 30,185枚
2000年 - 42,638枚
2001年 - 45,562枚
2002年 - 32,376枚
2003年 - 35,230枚
2004年 - 55,057枚
2005年 - 26,146枚
2006年 - 25,535枚
2007年 - 15,000枚
2008年 - 20,000枚
2009年 - 5,153枚

Perth Mint kookaburra 發行量


1990 1oz 300,000
1991 1oz 283,766
1992 1oz 198,356
1993 1oz 180,473
1994 1oz 164,327
1995 1oz 134,535
1996 1oz 146,642
1997 1oz 149,219
1998 1oz 92,902
1999 1oz 104,433
2000 1oz 99,388
2001 1oz 164,480
2002 1oz 81,160
2003 1oz 93,596
2004 1oz 79,732
2005 1oz 84,448
2006 1oz 76,943
2007 1oz 202,506
2008 1oz 300,000
2009 1oz 300,000
2010 1oz 300,000
2011 1oz 500,000
2012 1oz 500,000

數據來之Perth Mint 網頁

2011年12月7日 星期三

團購銀幣

公司 : www.apmex.com
紹集人: 旺旺
大家可以呢度報名加訂單, 星期六晚十二點截止, 如果唔想呢度訂, 都可以直接send e-mail 俾旺旺 !
運費(49.95*7.8=389.61)+匯錢去美國的費用(約230)+其他費用(如有)會按人頭分灘 !
截止報名後旺旺會send e-mail俾大家須交幾多錢, 最遲星期二旺旺須收到全數, 如有計漏, 收銀幣時再交俾旺旺 !
收到數後旺旺才會去訂銀幣 !

2011年12月5日 星期一

半盎司銀龍和半盎司銀樹熊

今早收到, 而大半天後才收到貨運電郵, Perth Mint 一定忙到暈 !
通常你會在收貨前兩天收到貨運電郵的 !

央行发行2010版熊猫金银纪念币一套


www.gov.cn

2009年12月01日

新华社北京11月30日电(记者王宇、姚均芳)中国人民银行定于11月30日发行2010版熊猫金银纪念币一套。该套纪念币共10枚,其中金币7枚,银币3枚,均为中华人民共和国法定货币。
该套金银纪念币的正面图案均为北京天坛祈年殿,并刊国名、年号;背面图案均为熊猫双嬉图,并刊面额、重量及成色。
其中,发行量最大的是1盎司圆形银质纪念币,为普制币,含纯银1盎司,直径40毫米,面额10元,最大发行量800000枚。发行量最小的是1公斤圆形金质纪念币,为精制币,含纯金1公斤,直径90毫米,面额10000元,最大发行量200枚。
该套金银纪念币分别由深圳国宝造币有限公司、沈阳造币厂和上海造币有限公司铸造,中国金币总公司总经销。


2008年銀熊貓發行量60萬枚
2009年銀
貓發行量60萬枚
2010年銀
貓發行量80萬枚
2011年銀
貓發行量6百萬枚
2012年銀
貓發行量8百萬枚

2011年12月4日 星期日

熊猫金币发行量30年增加800倍

www.360cang.com

熊猫金币一 直都是收藏投资行业的投资热品,金银币市场,关注度最高的是刚刚发行的2012中国壬辰(龙)年金银纪念币,以及即将发行的2012版熊猫金银纪念币身 上,但是由于熊猫金币发行量在30年内增加了800倍,收藏投资专家并不看好这一新品,因为这一款纪念币的发行量比以往的纪念币发行量大增。

中国历代贵金属史

历年来央行发行的金银币规模也发现,在中国30多年的现代贵金属币史上,之前20年的时间里,金银币的发行规模一直波澜不惊。但从2000年开始, 金银币的发行量就走上了不断扩容的上升通道。以熊猫金银币为例,2011年就经历了中国金银币史上最大规模、最疯狂的两次扩容,从最初计划的150万枚至 年底实际发行600万枚,而明年的发行量在此基础上又将突破,计划发行近1148万枚。

现象

熊猫金币30年疯狂扩容800倍

11月30日,中国人民银行将发行2012版熊猫金银纪念币,该套纪念币共10枚,其中金币7枚,银币3枚,均为中华人民共和国法定货币。

央行的公告一挂出来,很多“熊猫粉丝”便准备好了资金。但有心人将10枚纪念币的总发行量一累加,实在大吃一惊:11475500枚!

这是什么概念?羊城晚报记者查询熊猫金银币的发行史发现:1982年熊猫金银币第一次推出市场的时候,总发行量是14425枚。也就是说,30年间,发行量足足增加了近800倍。

中国现代贵金属币章收藏家葛祖康告诉羊城晚报记者:“2011版熊猫金银纪念币最初发行计划是150万枚,但由于今年央行在几个商业银行试点销售熊 猫金银币,消费群体瞬间膨胀,150万枚一投入市场马上无影无踪,之后扩容到300万枚,半年的时间又给市场消化掉了,所以央行决定第二次发行扩容,再次 翻倍达到600万枚。一年当中两次发行扩容,这在中国30多年的现代贵金属币史上,都是前所未有的事情。”

但大幅扩容的不仅仅是熊猫金银币,近期刚刚发行的2012中国壬辰(龙)年金银纪念币,发行量与往年的生肖纪念币相比,同样扩容不少。仅以1盎司圆 形的生肖精制银币为例,1994甲戌狗年时,仅发行8000枚;到2010庚寅虎年,发行量陡增至10万枚;到了今年,原定计划发行18万枚,最近实际发 行22万枚。连日来羊城晚报记者走访多个销售市场看到,龙年纪念币都是当之无愧的市场热点,一来龙年对于中国人而言有着特殊重要的意义,二来年底的礼品经 济也推动了龙年纪念币的销售。

发行扩容利于藏金于民

对于2011版熊猫金银纪念币的发行扩容原因,央行表示,增加发行是为满足贵金属纪念币收藏者的集藏需要。

对此葛祖康也表示:“发行扩容是件好事,按照国家藏金于民的思路,熊猫金银币就是最好的载体。随着金银币投资收藏群体的逐年壮大,原本的发行数量已经远远不能满足市场需要。熊猫金银币的发行目的本来就是为了投资,而不是收藏,这与美国鹰扬币的发行目的是一样的。”

“但今年600万枚的发行量是否过量,最后还是要看市场反映。发行扩容没问题,但千万不能供过于求。这个度的把握非常重要,打个比方如果有10万人 的集藏队伍,那么发行量就应该控制在9万-9.5万枚左右,这样市场就会表现为高开低走,即使升值幅度不大,如1万元买进,半年后涨到1.1万元,但会收 获到收藏的乐趣。”

“一般金银币的定价都是参照国际金价,再加上一定的升水(加工费和利润)和税收等其他费用来定,今年国际金价经过了上一场暴跌,很多投资者都有了恐 慌心理。这种情况下,明年的龙年纪念币的发行价,已经比今年的兔年纪念币价格低,如果央行明智,过几天发行的2012版熊猫金银纪念币,价格也应该比 2011版的便宜。”葛祖康称。

投资建议

投资不要跟热点要选就选“老精稀”

“龙年总共发行的15枚生肖币中,我只看好1公斤金币和10公斤金币,发行量分别是18枚和118枚。1公斤银币也不错,发行量3800枚。投资千 万不要跟热点,关键是选‘老精稀’币。”陈浩敏表示,“‘老精稀’币,并不是单指2000年以前发行的‘老精稀’币,而是说这三个字代表着收藏的铁律。物 以稀为贵,所以最重要的是‘稀’,其次是‘精’,最后才是‘老’。2000年之后发行的纪念币,如果题材和发行量都很好,也有很大的升值空间,如2010 年发行的纪念币,我只看好一套云冈石窟,1公斤金币发行价格82万元,现在已经涨到了200万元。”

陈浩敏强调,“选择金银币,第一是量,第二还是量,第三才是看工艺,第四看题材,第五看设计”。

发行量大

升值空间有限

但从投资角度看发行扩容,不少藏家却对发行量大的金银币丝毫不感冒。不少金银币的藏家告诉记者:“2000年以后的熊猫币,我一个都没有买。”

在金银币的二级市场广州市纵原邮币卡交易市场,币商陈浩敏告诉羊城晚报记者:“老实说,我看空龙年生肖币。一来最近正是市场的调整期,一些题材的价 格有所回调;二来龙年生肖币的发行量太大了,也太贵了,这个价格是在黄金牛市的时候就已经订下来的,但牛市的思维碰到了目前熊市的现实环境,留下来的升值 空间已经非常有限了,短期投资不安全。”

熊猫金币一直都是金银币纪念币市场的收藏热门产品,发行量的大幅提升,是否会影响到以后纪念币的价值,让我们根据市场的行情来观察留意他的变化。

2011年12月3日 星期六

Ann Barnhardt: "Get the Hell Out of All Paper"

silverdoctors.blogspot.com 全文

Ann states that MF Global has destroyed the integrity of the entire system, and it is time to GET THE HELL OUT OF ALL PAPER ASSETS! She also states that we have literally progressed to the point where the world's central banks are attempting to kick the can down the road for a few more days at a time, and she will be surprised if we make it till Christmas.

Well get the hell out. Get out of all paper and it's not just the commodities markets. This is going to cascade through everything. It is going to get into the equities. It is going to get into 401ks and IRAs, it is going to get into pension plans and so on and so forth. Total systemic collapse. Get out!

I don’t know how I can be anymore plain about this. I say this over and over and over again and then I get scads of emails saying, well I can’t get out of my 401k. Yes, you can. Yes, you can. Take the penalty and get the hell out of there. What would you rather do? Would you rather pay the 10% penalty or would you rather have it all go up in smoke? Because that's what we're staring down the barrel of...
What I saw this morning, what the Fed is getting ready to do in terms of Europe, is keep Europe going for another seven days. Well, fantastic. Thanks for that. That is literally the brain dead mindset of these politicians. All they are doing is looking to kick the can down the road. At first it was kick the can down another 10, 12 years. Then it is kick the can down the road for another year. And then it was well, let’s kick the can down the road for another few months. Now we're literally to the point where all we can do is kick the can down the road for a matter of a few days. It's not going to make it. I will be very surprised if we make it until Christmas.


Obama and his Marxist czars come up with the plan to collapse THE System. Corzine, an intimate of Obama, is given an outline of a plan that will precipitate the collapse of our financial system. It begins with Corzine's intentional massive multi billion dollar bet that the Euro/greek debt would be bailed out. He knows it won't get a bailout since that fix is in but goes along with the plan. His reward is the opportunity to loot MF Global of $1 billion or so. JPM gets the Phyzz.
JPM gets the ECB to call the Greek bad bond failure a 'haircut instead of a default. With a haircut JPM loses maybe $5 billion in Greek bond value instead of the $50 billion they would lose as the guarantor of that debt default. $5 billion? A reasonable loss given the worst case scenario. I am sure JPM will be be made whole with some sort of counter party remuneration along the way.
Corzine goes underground and this massive sum of money simply disappears. If $700,000,000,000 in stimulus money can flow away like water into sand, I expect that $1,000,000,000 would be easy to make disappear. My bank made $900,000,000 disappear in bonds back in 1990. No one went to jail then either.

2011年12月2日 星期五

馬騮山蜱蟲咬到三人入院

原來蜱蟲一早已殺入香港 !

蘋果日報

【本報訊】秋冬的清爽天氣乃行山好季節,但要提防經蟎或蜱咬傳播的立克次體病。上月便有 7名市民染病,其中 3人曾到過港人行山熱點「馬騮山」,即金山郊野公園。專家指立克次體病可致命,提醒市民行山做足預防措施,促請當局調查細菌傳播是否與馬騮有關。
記者:梁麗兒

衞生防護中心指, 7人分別為 4男 3女, 30至 76歲,全部人病發時均出現發燒,部份人有皮膚出疹、頭痛等症狀。當中 1人確診染叢林斑疹傷寒, 1人確診染斑疹熱,其餘 5人未能分類,全部均屬立克次體病。 7人分別入住五間公立醫院,包括聯合醫院、聖母醫院等。所有人已出院,情況穩定。

嚴重者可以致命

調查顯示, 7人中有 5人曾在疾病潛伏期間行山,其中 3人曾到馬騮山行山,但 3人各不相識,所走路徑也不同。分別與上述 3人行山的同行友人,也沒有類似症狀。中心續指,除行山外,染病 7人均到過港九、新界各區,故難以確定其感染源頭,但列為偶發性個案。
食物環境衞生署表示,接獲中心通報後,已在馬騮山及其附近有關地方進行病媒調查,並聯同相關部門分別在有關地方,加強撲滅蜱及相關的清潔工作。
今年截至上月,防護中心共接獲 32宗立克次體病,其中 5宗為叢林斑疹傷寒、 2宗城市斑疹傷寒、 17宗斑疹熱,另有 8宗未能分類。去年則有 44宗立克次體病。立克次體為一種細菌,可引致多種立克次體病,其中叢林斑疹傷寒及斑疹熱在本港較常見。該菌病媒主要為蟎、蜱、蝨及蚤等節足類動物,並寄生在老鼠、貓及狗等動物身上,若人體接觸貓、狗等動物,而被蜱等咬到,便可受感染。
港大感染及傳染病中心總監何栢良稱,秋高氣爽的郊遊季節,為每年立克次體病的高峯期。他表示,如果同一個地方有多人中招,就可能反映問題特別嚴重,「係咪蟎或蜱特別多呢?又係咪同馬騮有關呢?馬騮身上又係咪特別多蜱等動物?當局一定要調查!」他建議當局抽驗金山郊野公園內的馬騮,了解有否感染立克次體病,以及細菌有否變種。
他警告,立克次體細菌可攻擊人體肝腎、上腦,入血致敗血症等,嚴重可致命,市民不容忽視。由於未知是否馬騮傳播,行山時應避免接觸馬騮;多行大路及避免多叢林的地方;以及穿着長袖衫褲,提防被蜱、蟎咬到。

2011年12月1日 星期四

Secret Software Logs Every Keystroke on Nearly All Smartphones!

silverdoctors.blogspot.com

Android Developer Trevor Eckhart has discovered that software called CarrierIQ has been secretly installed on nearly every smart-phone in America, and logs EVERY SINGLE KEYSTROKE made by the user- including ENCRYPTED web searches!

Do your seaches for fully-automatic kalashnikov's outnumber your precious metals searches on your smart phone? You know, just so they can know what to expect.

又睇誰跑得最快


還有一個月就年結, 又睇金、銀、股、匯、油, 誰跑得最快 !

2011年11月30日 星期三

六大央行向市場提供流動性

hk.news.yahoo.com

美國聯儲局與另外5間主要央行,採取協調行動,向市場提供流動性,以支持全球金融體系。

美聯儲局發表聲明稱,將數大央行之間現有的臨時性美元流動性互換利率下調50個點子,該舉措將從今年12月5日開始生效,目的是為了緩解市場流動性壓力給家庭和企業帶來的衝擊,從而刺激經濟復蘇。

此外,美聯儲局將再度延長與加拿大銀行、英格蘭銀行、日本銀行、歐洲中央銀行以及瑞士國民銀行這5家西方主要中央銀行的臨時性美元流動性互換協議至2013年2月1日。

分析人士認為,此舉旨在向海外金融機構提供所需的美元流動性,以緩解歐洲債務危機帶來的壓力。

去 年5月,因希臘主權債務危機形勢惡化,國際金融市場震盪,市場對美元的需求顯著增加。美聯儲局啟動了與其他西方主要央行的臨時性貨幣互換機制,原定截止日 期為2011年1月。去年12月,歐洲主權債務危機繼續惡化,美聯儲局延長這項政策至2011年8月1日。今年6月,美聯儲局又將這項政策延長至2012 年8月1日。

根據貨幣互換協議,美聯儲把某一額度的美元以一定匯率與其他央行的貨幣進行交換,同時約定在一段時間後,以相同匯率再將這些貨幣相互換回。由於對期限和匯 價進行了約定,因此這一舉措不會對國際外匯市場美元對相關貨幣的匯價造成影響,同時解決了海外金融機構對美元資金的需求。在金融危機中,美聯儲局也曾同西 方央行採用這一貨幣互換機制,以保證美元供應,穩定金融市場。


Kiyosaki 富爸爸 : I dont like Equities

kiyosaki-blog.blogspot.com

Yeah, I think so. I’m not a real equities guy because I don’t like equities. I’m a private investor. In other words, I buy my own apartment houses. I buy my own oil wells. I drill my own wells. I don’t like the public markets because they’re manipulated. But, anyway, when I watch people trying to guess the stock market, you better know it’s manipulated. If you’re not into manipulation, then maybe you shouldn’t be in it. So, I think that’s really the thing. And I predict that the bottom of the stock market, a big run off, will probably be 2016, 2017. It’ll clean out all the baby boomers who are in it and then it’ll be time that gold will go through the roof, silver will go through the roof and it’ll be time to exit gold and silver around 2018. That’s my prediction. There’s definitely no fundamentals to what I say. I just – that’s the way I see it going, so for right now, I’m just kind of watching and seeing how it tracks, but so far, I’ve been right on. And the reason I think the stock market hasn’t seen this bottom yet is because all over the world, there’s a group of people called baby boomers, that’s with the stock market like they do in the European market.

Chris Martenson's presentation at the Gold & Silver Meeting in Madrid



講者說, 因為人口澎漲, 所以資源愈來愈少, 而來緊二十年的經濟走勢會不同於過去二十年的走勢 ! 片段尾段講者有說對油價、黃金和白銀的睇法 !

goldsilver.com

GoldMoneyNews
NOVEMBER 29, 2011

n this video Chris Martenson, economic analyst at http://chrismartenson.com and author of 'The Crash Course', explains why he thinks that the coming 20 years are going to look completely unlike the last 20 years. In his presentation he focuses on the so-called three "Es": Economy, Energy and Environment. He argues that at this point in time it is no longer possible to view either one of those topics separately from one another.

Since all our money is loaned onto existence, our economy has to grow exponentially. Martenson proves this point empirically by showing a 99.9% fit of the actual growth curve of the last 40 years to an exponential curve. If we wanted to continue on this path, our debt load would have to double again over the next 10 years. By continually increasing our debt relative to GDP we are making the assumption that our future will always be wealthier than our past. He believes that this assumption is flawed and that the debt loads are already unmanageable.

Martenson explains how exponential growth works and why it is so scary that our economy is based on it. In an example he illustrates how unimaginably fast things speed up towards the end of an exponential curve. He shows that an exponential chart can be found in every one of the three "E's" for instance in GDP growth, oil production, water use or species extinction. Due to the natural limitations on resources, Martenson comes to the conclusion that we are facing a serious energy crisis.

This energy predicament is namely that the quantity of oil as well as the quality of oil are in decline. He shows that oil discoveries peaked in 1964 and oil production peaked 40 years later. Martenson also shows how our return on invested energy is rapidly declining -- the "cheap and easy" oil fields have already been exploited. In 1930 the energy return for oil was 100:1 or greater. Today it is already down to 3:1 and newer technologies such as corn-based ethanol only provide a 1.5:1 return. Martenson predicts that the time in between oil shocks will get shorter and shorter and that oil prices will go much higher.

Not only oil but also other natural resources are being rapidly used up as well. At the current projected pace of use, known reserves for many metals and minerals will be gone within the next 10 to 20 years. The energy needed to get these non-renewable resources out of the ground is growing exponentially. So we live in a world that must grow, but can't grow and is subject to depletion. The conclusion out of all this is that our money system is poorly designed and that we need to rethink how we do things as quickly as possible.

After finishing his presentation Chris Martenson answers questions regarding a rise in efficiency, alternative technologies and oil prices. He also responds to questions regarding electricity, shale gas, gold, silver, platinum, palladium, and uranium and the race for global resources.

2011年11月29日 星期二

內地63高校免試收3000港生

文匯報

香港文匯報訊 (記者 劉景熙)明年為大學入學雙軌年,新舊學制合共逾11萬學生應考2個公開試,預料逾4萬人獲最低升大學資格,爭讀不足3萬個資助大學學位,競爭非常激烈。國家教育部昨日公布,來自11省市的63所內地高校明年將試行免試招港生安排,其中文憑試最低成績要求為與本地大學看齊的「3322」。有關免試招生將於2月下旬接受網上報名,4月開始面試,提供2,000至3,000學額,放榜日期較本地4年制大學聯招早約兩星期。連同暨南大學及華僑大學為港生提供的2,000個學額(見另稿),新學制下可有多達5,000名港生赴內地升學,出路將大大擴闊。

 國務院副總理李克強8月訪港時提出2012年內地免試招港生安排,有關具體方案包括報名日期、最低入學成績及報名費用等昨日公布。香港教育局網頁(www.edb.gov.hk/expo2011)已載有各相關詳情,副局長陳維安回應指,對安排表歡迎,希望港生能把握機會,而學生和家長亦可在12月10日至11日參與在伊利沙伯中學舉行的「2011內地高等教育展」,當日會安排升學講座、攤位展覽及分享會,各院校亦會派代表講解其特點,亦有畢業生和僱主分享內地升學須知。

11省市學府 粵佔四分一

 明年免試招港生的63所高校有1/4來自廣東省,涉及各類專科學校如廣州美術學院、星海音樂學院等,亦包括北大、清華、復旦等綜合型名校。根據安排,各院校將可在當年內地招生計劃以外,招收30至50名港生,即共提供2,000至3,000個學額,連同暨大、華僑,內地高校明年共可提供5,000個學位予港生,紓緩其升學壓力。

文憑試成績 須達「3322」

 在免試安排下,文憑試畢業生需要符合4個核心科中英數及通識「3322」的最低收生要求;高考生則要中英文合格,另加2科高級程度科目或同等成績合格,兩者均與香港升大學最低要求看齊。此外,香港升學適用的「其他學習經歷」、校長推薦及課外活動傑出表,再可望於內地升學面試時獲加分。

 教育局副秘書長李美嫦強調,有關收生標準存在彈性,如報讀部分院校工程學科,英文不一定要達3級,但數學成績卻更注意,港生需要留意個別院校情況。

 有關報名程序將於明年2月20日至3月5日經網上平台進行,共可依次選擇4所院校,每校各4個專業,即共16個志願,報名費為港幣420元,考生並需要到中國教育留學交流(香港)中心現場確認。3月底各內地高校將公布面試名單,4月在港面試,並在5 月中前公布預錄取名單。在7月底香港文憑試放榜後,考評局會將考生成績經內地聯招辦轉予63所高校,8月3日便能公布錄取名單;比香港4年制大學聯招放榜早約兩星期。教育局提醒,港生可能同時獲香港及內地院校取錄,應小心考慮自己志向。

文匯報

內地63所免試招收港生高校名單

北京市:北京大學、清華大學、中國人民大學、北京師範大學、北京語言大學、中國政法大學、中國傳媒大學、北京中醫藥大學、北京服裝學院

天津市:南開大學、天津大學、天津師範大學、天津中醫藥大學

上海市:復旦大學(見圖)、上海交通大學、華東師範大學、上海財經大學、華東政法大學、東華大學、上海大學、上海師範大學、上海立信會計學院

江蘇省:南京大學、南京師範大學、南京中醫藥大學

浙江省:浙江大學、溫州醫學院、浙江中醫藥大學、寧波大學

福建省:廈門大學、福州大學、華僑大學、福建中醫藥大學、福建師範大學、集美大學

湖北省:武漢大學、華中師範大學、中南財經政法大學、湖北中醫藥大學

廣東省:中山大學、暨南大學、華南師範大學、廣州中醫藥大學、廣東外語外貿大學、南方醫科大學、汕頭大學、廣州美術學院、星海音樂學院、廣州大學、深圳大學、廣東商學院、韶關學院、北京師範大學珠海分校、廣東工業大學、肇慶學院、廣東藥學院

重慶市:西南大學、重慶大學、西南政法大學

四川省:成都中醫藥大學、四川師範大學

雲南省:雲南大學、雲南師範大學

製表:香港文匯報記者 任智鵬

文匯報

內地高校免試招港生重要日程

今年12月10至11日 「內地高等教育展」舉行

2月20日至3月5日 接受網上報名

3月1至15日 考生帶備所須資料,到中國教育留學交流中心現場確認

3月26至31日 公布面試名單

4月1至30日 在港組織面試(如需要)

5月15日前 公布預錄取名單

6月29日、7月20日 高考、文憑試放榜

8月3日前 內地高校公布錄取名單

8月20日前 經考生確認後,最終錄取名單公布,並發放錄取通知書

資料來源︰國家教育部

詳情請瀏覽www.edb.gov.hk/expo2011

製表︰香港文匯報記者 歐陽文倩

美股反彈

金、銀強返 !

2011年11月28日 星期一

Kiyosaki 富爸爸說 : I am a Silver bug

kiyosaki-blog.blogspot.com

I’m a silver bug, so one year ago, I told my friends, this is when silver was $17.00, I said, “You better buy now, ‘cause you’re never gonna see it again.” So, $17.00 was the magic number to me. And so, they really missed it. Now, as far as above $50.00, I would say that’s probably a given and they don’t understand why they’re getting into this stuff. But, the reason they’re getting into it is because, like, our government’s ripping ‘em off, but they would rather have, you know, a government we trust. And, you know, what I’m sick of right now, personally, is I turn on Fox and I watch the news and all it is is these political shows talking as if these politicians, or whoever’s elected or not elected next year, is gonna make a difference. And they’re talking about taxing the rich. You know, what – that’s not gonna make any difference. And they keep talking about how these regulations impede entrepreneurs. Well, nothing impedes entrepreneurs. So, you know, really, what it is is the individual person really does have very little financial education. And so, right now, this market’s crushing ‘em and I’m afraid if they do nothing, they will be crushed. I have a lot of friends and family who are in very dire straits right now. And no matter how much I talk to them, you know, I say, “You should buy silver now. It’s your last chance”, they didn’t do anything and I think that’s the problem.

2011年11月27日 星期日

逾20人含冤入獄 黑人匪幫 專呃港穗才女運毒

幫朋友都要小心, 幫人帶野更加要小心, 還有便宜莫貪, 以為可以免費去旅行 !

www.eastweek.com.hk 全文

海關今年在機場揭發逾二十宗單身女子運毒案,在她們的行李暗格搜出大批可卡因、海洛英等毒品,市值逾千萬元,一旦罪成,各人將面臨最高罰款五百萬港元及終身監禁。

消息指出,涉案女子主要為內地人,她們不約而同在廣州結識黑人男子後,均獲提供免費出國旅遊機會,但其實是被人利用運毒,最近連港女也中招,情況之嚴重是過往罕見。

本刊先後接觸多名受害人,並直擊疑似毒販在廣州的大本營,揭露黑人匪幫如何設下陷阱,專釣有才學兼身家清白的女子,使她們逐步淪為「人肉運毒工具」。

二十八歲香港女子穎兒(化名),在社交網站結識一班自稱在廣州做貿易生意的非洲朋友,並與其中一名叫Jacky(化名)的黑人男子短暫拍拖一個月。

Jacky早前突然再透過互聯網「翻撻」穎兒,且在三天內狂發近百個訊息,左一句「我愛你,很想和你生小孩」、右一句「我未來要和你一起生活」,令 穎兒芳心大亂。但其實他的目的只有一個,就是要穎兒到香港郵局,代領兩個寄給另兩位黑人的包裹,再親自帶往廣州給他,結果穎兒在港領取郵包時被捕。

銀幣999和9999的分別

銀幣有分999和9999純度, 而9999是純過999, 因為加入其他金屬(多數是黃銅)少些 ! 所以9999銀幣會比較軟好易花 !

剛睇到在Kitco forum 有人說 9999銀是多數用在高科支工業上, 但一盎司的銀幣, 就算999或9999都是得31.1克的純銀 ! 有些銀幣會重好多, 因為加咗好多其他金屬 !

銀幣都有低過999的, 如925(sterling silver), 900, 720等等, 所以你要查清楚, 你手上的銀幣實在有幾多克的純銀 !

www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=97150

One dealer at a coin show said .9999 was softer & scratched easier than .999, who knows though.Well, the 0.9999 is 9/10,000th more pure than 0.999.
The silver content of either is usually the same (1 toz, 1/2 toz, etc...).

Some (very few) manufactured high-tech goodies benefit from using the 0.9999 as stock over the 0.999.

9999 silver is industrial grade silver
anything less than four 9`s is only investment bullion.

Prepare for riots in euro collapse

各國政府須預備, 萬一歐盟解體如何去幫助自己國民, 如果他們無法去銀行取到現金生活 !

goldsilver.com

As the Italian government struggled to borrow and Spain considered seeking an international bail-out, British ministers privately warned that the break-up of the euro, once almost unthinkable, is now increasingly plausible.

Diplomats are preparing to help Britons abroad through a banking collapse and even riots arising from the debt crisis.

The Treasury confirmed earlier this month that contingency planning for a collapse is now under way.

A senior minister has now revealed the extent of the Government’s concern, saying that Britain is now planning on the basis that a euro collapse is now just a matter of time.

“It’s in our interests that they keep playing for time because that gives us more time to prepare,” the minister told the Daily Telegraph.

Recent Foreign and Commonwealth Office instructions to embassies and consulates request contingency planning for extreme scenarios including rioting and social unrest.

Greece has seen several outbreaks of civil disorder as its government struggles with its huge debts. British officials think similar scenes cannot be ruled out in other nations if the euro collapses.

Diplomats have also been told to prepare to help tens of thousands of British citizens in eurozone countries with the consequences of a financial collapse that would leave them unable to access bank accounts or even withdraw cash.

Fuelling the fears of financial markets for the euro, reports in Madrid yesterday suggested that the new Popular Party government could seek a bail-out from either the European Union rescue fund or the International Monetary Fund.

There are also growing fears for Italy, whose new government was forced to pay record interest rates on new bonds issued yesterday.

The yield on new six-month loans was 6.5 per cent, nearly double last month’s rate. And the yield on outstanding two-year loans was 7.8 per cent, well above the level considered unsustainable.

Italy’s new government will have to sell more than EURO 30 billion of new bonds by the end of January to refinance its debts. Analysts say there is no guarantee that investors will buy all of those bonds, which could force Italy to default.

The Italian government yesterday said that in talks with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy, Prime Minister Mario Monti had agreed that an Italian collapse “would inevitably be the end of the euro.”

The EU treaties that created the euro and set its membership rules contain no provision for members to leave, meaning any break-up would be disorderly and potentially chaotic.

If eurozone governments defaulted on their debts, the European banks that hold many of their bonds would risk collapse.

Some analysts say the shock waves of such an event would risk the collapse of the entire financial system, leaving banks unable to return money to retail depositors and destroying companies dependent on bank credit.

The Financial Services Authority this week issued a public warning to British banks to bolster their contingency plans for the break-up of the single currency.

Some economists believe that at worst, the outright collapse of the euro could reduce GDP in its member-states by up to half and trigger mass unemployment.

Analysts at UBS, an investment bank earlier this year warned that the most extreme consequences of a break-up include risks to basic property rights and the threat of civil disorder.

“When the unemployment consequences are factored in, it is virtually impossible to consider a break-up scenario without some serious social consequences,” UBS said.

Gold to drive on dollar, headlines news next week

實金是用來儲, 當買個保險預防金融體系崩盤, 所以唔適宜用來炒賣, 因為你賣咗好有可能買唔返 !
Barclays Capital 預期金價跌到1600可以買入, 企穩1736可以見返1803/1840 !


www.commodityonline.com

Gold prices will likely take their cue from action in the U.S. dollar and any news headlines next week as external influences continue to drive gold’s direction.

The most-active December Gold contract on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange settled at $1,685.70 an ounce, down 2.28% on the week. December Silver settled at $31.014 an ounce, down 4.33% on the week.

In the Kitco News Gold Survey, out of 32 participants, 18 responded this week. Of those 18 participants, 10 see prices up, while five see prices down, and three see prices sideways or unchanged. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical chart analysts.

Several of those participants in the survey said the longer-term fundamentals of gold remain in good standing and those traders who have a longer-term investment horizon are able to buy the metal at lower levels. Also, several said after recent losses, gold may be considered “oversold” and due for a rebound.

George Gero, vice-president, global futures, and precious metals strategist, RBC Capital Markets, said gold won’t be a leader, rather a follower, with the action of the dollar, interest rates and news headlines the biggest influence.

A stronger dollar has been a bugaboo for the gold bulls, but there is some debate on how much strength it has left. Some analysts have said in the short-term it appears that the dollar has risen too far, too fast and is due some sort of correction and that will take pressure off of gold. However, others said that as long as the problems in Europe remain, then the dollar will remain the safe haven of choice.

Gold has not been the recipient of safe haven flows during the whole European sovereign debt crisis, which has surprised many. Some market watchers have suggested that part of the reason why is that investors are seeking the kind of liquidity only the U.S. dollar can provide. BNP Paribas said the drying up of liquidity conditions is the main catalyst behind the U.S. dollar strength.

They said the lack of liquidity is seen in short-term money markets as the 3-month and one-year euro basis swaps continue to widen. “Spreading illiquidity has impacted even otherwise stellar trades such as long gold which are under pressure despite fundamentals suggesting it should trade higher,” they said.

Gero agreed that liquidity is an issue why gold isn’t going higher in the current environment, but he suggested that there’s another central issue: price. “Let’s face it, there’s sticker shock. The price of gold is under discussion on the jewelry side. With the holidays coming up, most manufacturers have already taken a stand. They’re looking at possible alternatives like silver, like Platinum – the price of Gold has put pressure on the jewelry trade. Even in India, there’s some resistance. Plus there’s less discretionary income – and jewelry is the first (purchase) to go,” he said.

Barclays Capital also noted that physical buying is drying up, except for on dips. “While gold investment demand has firmed up in recent weeks, physical demand from Asia has been weaker than expected amid the seasonally strong period for consumption, with healthy interest only responding to price dips,” they said.

In the every short-tem environment, Robin Bhar, precious metals analyst at Credit Agricole-CIB, the attitude of the investor is “return of capital, rather than return on capital” which was similar to attitudes in 2008-09. That’s also why gold has been getting the short shrift.

Gero added that perhaps people missing the point about the benefits of a weaker euro for Europe. “I think people are misreading the euro weakness as the euro is going out of business. They’re weakening it politically because they’re not able to do it financially. They want to export to the U.S. which is still the last haven,” he said.

Despite the recent weakness, several market watchers who remain bullish on gold pointed to further interest by central banks to buy the metal, which is a strong underlying support. The World Gold Council and the International Monetary Fund said this week that central bank gold purchases rose to 148.6 metric tons in the third quarter.

Looking ahead to next week, Gero said Wednesday is first notice day for many of the U.S. metal futures and that could have an influence on trade. Also, the calendar flips to December and many fund managers will begin to square books as they have to issue quarter-end and year-end profit/loss statements to clients. Any of those activities could have an influence on all the metals markets.

A few technical analysts are keeping their eyes out for the $1,650 area for gold. Bhar said that region could be tested if there is more selling in other markets and a need to raise cash continues. “Technically, gold has remained below the 100-day moving average for four consecutive days and still looks vulnerable to more chart-based selling,” he said.

Yet technical analysts at Barclays Capital like gold at lower levels. “We look for a move higher in gold and would buy dips against the $1,600 area. Above $1,736 confirms upside scope toward $1,803/$1,840,” they said.

By Debbie Carlson of Kitco News dcarlson@kitco.com

Owning silver means you profit whether the economy tanks or not

www.commodityonline.com

NEW YORK (Commodity Online): Buying Silver is a no brainer as far Jim Rogers is concerned. And why not? Considering that governments are printing money, silver will prove to be a very good bet.

In a recent CNBC interview, Rogers says - “Throughout history, when things have gone wrong, they print money…when they print money, you should own silver, you should own rice, you should own real assets. Gold could go down a fair bit more…but I’m certainly going to buy more gold if it goes down and silver.”

“I’m long commodities and currencies, because if the world gets better, the shortages in commodities will make sure I make money. If the world economy doesn’t get better, I’d rather own commodities because they’re [central banks] going to print money.” he added.

Bottom line – you profit in both ways whether the economy slips into recession or the economy rebounds and grows

He noted that the MF Global fiasco has created a temporary forced selling in the markets and this will provide an opportunity for buyers to accumulate more silver.

Though he remained uncertain as to the magnitude by which Gold and Silver will fall, he however remarked that he will be ready with his chequebook if silver and gold fall further.

Stephen Leeb, the noted American economist, had earlier said that he expected silver to hit at least $100/oz

2011年11月26日 星期六

好好保護銀幣

透明膠盒和玻璃袋仔, 保護銀幣不可少。

當初買銀條、銀幣, 以為只是用來保值, 第日可以當原材料純銀賣出去, 所以無保護它們的意識, 因為實銀就算變黑變形都一樣可以跟重量賣得出 。
但依家買多幾種不同的銀幣後, 先發現它們對收藏家來說有本身升值的能力, 因為愈少發行量的銀幣和愈多人喜愛的銀幣, 價值會高出銀價好多倍, 而愈少傷痕的收藏幣, 也愈值錢, 所以才知道要好好保護銀幣 !

也要多謝東洋老闆娘處理她的銀幣給我的旁樣, 因為她賣的銀幣處理的乾乾正正, 有膠盒裝之外還有一個玻璃袋仔袋住, 唔依有D幣舖賣的銀幣有爛盒還有灰塵 !

透明膠盒是用來保護銀幣跌落地都唔會傷, 而俾硬物壓住都唔會變形 !
玻璃袋仔是用來隔灰麈和防光線的, 咁銀幣就無咁易變黃變黑 !

如果你覺得盒仔太貴, 咁你起碼都要用個玻璃袋仔袋住, 減少銀幣互相磨擦多花痕 !
如果你銀條、銀幣有本身的保護軟膠, 咁就要好好保護個軟膠唔好變污穢, 等第日可以有個好賣相 !

處理銀幣時, 最好唔好用赤手去摸, 因為手上油脂可以留痕, 第日銀幣會出班點 !

膠盒尺吋:
愛樂 - 37mm
楓葉/timber wolf/grizzle bear/Cougar - 38mm
墨西哥天使 - 40mm
鷹楊 - 41mm

(東洋都有賣不同大小的玻璃袋, 可以放到銀條的)

註: 本人不是幫東洋賣廣告的 !

HIBOR升樓市慌

蘋果日報

樓市已夠淡靜,但環繞樓市的負面消息仍陸續有來,最大的緊箍咒相信是按揭息口上升。
銀行資金成本上漲,除了企業要面對借貸息口上升的壓力,一般小業主亦不能倖免。較早前,渣打便上調以 HIBOR為基準的新造按揭息率,但以最優惠利率為基準的按揭計劃( P按),相信遲早亦要面對加息。

流動性趨緊成風險

很多人包括筆者都認為,美國已打開口牌,至 2013年亦不會加息,香港息口走勢向來都惟美國馬首是瞻, H按加息,亦不過是 H+的部份上升及影響新造按揭而已,倘若 H維持低水平,整體按揭息口仍未至「離晒譜」。這亦是較早前,筆者相信樓市雖有隱憂,但未致惡劣程度的原因。
不過,最近筆者跟幾位經濟學者談及息口問題,他們都認為,即使美國不加息,香港的 HIBOR可能要上升。經濟學者所抱的論點是,如果美元滙率持續走強,加上全球銀根抽緊,在供求定律下,不但 H+部份的息率會上升,由於要維持聯繫滙率, HIBOR本身亦可能在壓力下要調升,這情況過去亦曾出現。若所言成真,一度為業主樂於採用的 H按揭計劃,貸款息率便會升得「離譜」了,因為屆時不但 H+部份要加息,影響新造按揭的業主,作為基準的 H亦會同時抽高,相信最優惠利率( P)亦會緊隨其後受影響,樓市勢危。
金管局總裁陳德霖近日表示,本港銀行貸存供求關係出現變化,相信利息上升壓力仍然存在。筆者曾在這專欄提及,對樓市最大威脅是全球流動性趨緊,有關影響現正逐步浮現。筆者懇切希望上述的預期不會成真。

張一鳴

索羅斯襲台 新興市場大撤資

文匯報

香港文匯報訊(記者 海巖、卓建安)歐債危機惡化殃及新興市場,資金紛紛從亞洲區撤走,亞洲貨幣下跌,國際大鱷索羅斯更乘亂在亞洲區興風作浪,有消息稱索羅斯正狙擊台灣股市,大手沽空台股。最新統計數字顯示,海外熱錢也正大規模撤出中國。

 國家外匯管理局昨日公佈的數據顯示,外匯儲備主要構成來源之一銀行代客結售匯順差,10月份僅32億美元,較9月份大幅下降87.7%。這是自7月份以來銀行代客結售匯順差額連續第4個月下降,並呈逐月下降的趨勢。

 今年7至9月,銀行代客結售匯順差額分別為432億美元、378億美元和260億美元。再加上較早前公佈的10月份中國新增外匯佔款為三年多來首次負增長,均印證熱錢正流出中國。

黎友煥:資金放量流出中國

 廣東社會科學院熱錢研究專家黎友煥表示,近期監控顯示中國資金流出明顯且金額巨大。從7月開始,受美元升值和人民幣貶值預期、中國新富階層移民潮等多重因素影響,大量資金放量流出中國,試圖到歐美抄底。也有分析認為,近期歐美經濟動盪,一些跨國公司將資金從內地抽走轉回歐美救急,是資金流出的主因。

花旗:股票基金走資210億

 投資銀行花旗昨日發表報告也指出,由於歐債危機前景未明,在新興市場的股票基金本周錄得27億美元(約210.6億港元)的資金流出。

 該報告指出,本周在新興市場資金外流最嚴重的是中歐、東歐、中東和非洲基金,資金流出佔資產管理總值的0.9%。另外,亞洲除日本外和拉丁美洲基金的資金流出均佔資產管理總值約0.3%。在國家基金類別中,韓國基金遭受最嚴重贖回,資金淨流出佔資產管理總值的2.6%。事實上,韓國基金已經連續四周錄得資金流出。此外,10月份亞洲除日本外基金的現金比例仍低於歷史均值。

亞新興體貨幣連跌四周

 受資金流出影響,本周亞洲區大多數新興國家貨幣連續第四周錄得下跌,其中韓國韓圜錄得兩個月來最大周跌幅。上周五韓圜對美元收市報1,139.15,而昨日截至香港時間晚上8點23分,韓圜對美元報1,165.29,較上周五收市價下跌2.24%。

 本周印度盧比亦呈弱勢,昨日截至香港時間晚上8點23分,印度盧比對美元報52.24,較上周五收市價51.255跌1.89%。

Interview With Silver Guru Ted Butler

www.tfmetalsreport.com

November 19, 2011 - Weekly Review/Financial Terrorism
posted: 11/19/2011
Weekly Review

The price of gold and, especially silver, sold off sharply this week, with most of the damage coming on Thursday. For the week, gold was off $64 (3.6%), while silver was off $2.30 (6.6%). The numbers would have been worse for silver were it not for some snapback on Friday. As a result of silver’s steep underperformance this week, the gold/silver ratio widened out to almost 53.5 to 1, near the top end of where this ratio has traded year to date. This means silver is cheaper relative to gold and on a value basis this is an opportune time for gold-heavy investors to switch gold holdings into silver.

As always, my suggestion to switch from gold to silver and to buy silver with fresh cash is intended on a metal for metal switch or on a money on the barrel basis. In other words, no borrowing and no leverage. Yes, I understand the silver price action looks punk. I also understand that silver investor sentiment is weak, with countless stories suggesting a silver price smash dead ahead. But I also understand that in any investment the best time to buy is when things look rotten. The alternative is to wait until things look and feel better. Of course, that usually means buying at much higher prices, when confidence is restored and everyone is feeling fine.

As long as the facts point to an undervaluation in silver, both on an absolute basis and relative to gold, those facts will override sentiment on a long term basis. Sentiment can change a lot easier than facts can change. It doesn’t seem that way in the midst of brutal price takedowns, but history has shown that the best time to buy silver is after it has been smashed in price. This applies to many investments, but none more so than silver, given its manipulated price state. As always, it’s vital to view the facts objectively.

That gold has been performing better than silver is, paradoxically, one of the best arguments for silver. At current prices, the dollar value of the world’s three billion ounces of gold bullion is more than $5 trillion, which towers over the value of the one billion oz of silver bullion ($32 billion) by almost 160 times. Yet this fact is largely unknown and vastly unappreciated. It takes roughly $7 billion monthly in new investment to absorb newly produced gold (above jewelry and other fabrication) and less than $400 million monthly to absorb all the net new silver available for investment. Even though silver investment demand has been lackluster recently, due to current rotten investor sentiment, that sentiment can turn on a dime. As a silver bull, a strong gold price is one of the strongest arguments for sharply higher silver prices. Given overall world financial conditions, it is very easy to imagine continued strong gold prices.

The current weak silver investor sentiment, brought about by the weak price action, is reflected in recent weak retail demand statistics. Data from the US Mint indicate that November may be the weakest month for sales of Silver Eagles in recent years, although 2011 is already in the record books as the best year ever for Silver Eagle sales. Just to keep things in perspective, as weak as very recent Silver Eagle sales have been, they still tower over sales of Gold Eagles. This highlights that retail demand in general is not a short term driver of price, otherwise gold prices wouldn’t be as strong as they are presently. The low price of silver, low premiums and current easy availability of Silver Eagles suggests to me that this is an opportune time to pick up Silver Eagles. Maybe I’ll ask my good friend and silver mentor, Izzy Friedman, to write another piece on why Silver Eagles are maybe the best form of silver to hold. The last time he did so, US Mint production capacity was maxed out for years.

Movements, or turnover, in COMEX silver warehouse stocks have remained frantic on balance. This turnover is still a prime indicator to me for wholesale tightness. As a result of Thursday’s massive decline in price, we did see a reduction of 2.2 million ounces in the big silver ETF, SLV. Given the sharp price drop, this looked like plain vanilla investor liquidation and quite normal to me. I’m also hopeful that the silver price sell-off may result in a reduction in the outrageously large and manipulative short position in SLV, although the very next short report (due in a week) may not reflect that, as the cut-off for that report was Nov 15, just before the latest price swoon.

Over the past year or so, SLV as well as all other silver ETFs have roughly unchanged inventory levels, which given the extreme price volatility over that time, looks constructive to me. My take is that the price volatility has caused a pause in new buying by silver investors, but not to the point of them becoming big net sellers. It looks to me that the wild price fluctuations have turned silver investors into strong holders and that when price action invariably improves, aggressive new buying will emerge. I am particularly encouraged that holdings in the big gold ETF, GLD, have risen recently despite volatile gold price action and reports of selling by the biggest GLD investor, John Paulson. Retail investors may not be plowing into gold, but larger investors seem to be doing so. Again, strong physical demand for gold will, sooner or later, likely translate into strong silver physical demand. One of these days, some big gold investors are going to discover silver and try to invest in silver in a big way. When they do, the fact that there is such a small amount of silver available for investment will cause a price mess to the upside, just like trying to put ten pounds of flour into a two pound bag.

This week’s Commitment of Traders Report (COT) was somewhat uneventful in that the big price and volume drama came well after the Tuesday cut-off. In fact, the continued MF Global disaster and mess has undoubtedly impacted the COT reports for the past two weeks, as the CFTC readily admits on the COT web page. For instance, some of you may have noticed the unusually large changes in the non-reporting category for gold and silver over the past two weeks. For that reason, it may be wise to read both weeks as one. In doing so, my original guess two weeks ago that the gold total commercial short position may have increased by 20,000 to 30,000 contracts becomes more accurate, as the two week increase comes in at 22,000 contracts or so and not the 14,500 increase of the single prior week.

Regardless, this week the silver total commercial net short position increased by a further 1600 contracts, to 26,300 contracts. This is still a very low and spectacularly bullish historical COT reading for silver. You might ask how can you have a one day 7% decline in price when I proclaim the COT structure to be spectacularly bullish? My answer is that you must always remember that the silver market is manipulated and crooked, perhaps the most manipulated and crooked market in the world, including diamonds and cocaine. The commercial crooks can do anything they want on a short term basis.

Like last week’s COT in silver, the raptors (the smaller commercials away from the 8 largest traders) accounted for all the selling, reducing their net long position to 13,000 contracts. Importantly, the big 4 category (read JPMorgan) hasn’t changed much since the COT report of Oct 25, when there was an increase of 3000 contracts into that week. JPMorgan is still sitting with 16,000 contracts net short in my estimation, among the lowest COMEX short reading since they acquired Bear Stearns’ big concentrated short position in 2008. My hunch is that while JPMorgan may have been able to reduce their short position on Thursday’s manipulated takedown, it is more likely that the raptors were the initiators and beneficiaries of the price smash that day. While JPMorgan is the big enabler of the continued silver manipulation, the collusive raptors are usually responsible for the big price smashes.

In gold, there was an increase in the total commercial net short position of 7200 contracts for the week, to 204,163 contracts. As in silver, it was largely due to raptor selling. The difference was that the gold raptors did get net short last week and added to their net short position this week, which now totals near 10,000 contracts. Also as was the case in silver, the down turn after the cut-off was precipitated by the raptors who act collusively in each market, even as the regulators turn a blind eye to that collusion. No doubt there has been notable improvement in the COT structure in both silver and gold on the deliberate takedown. There may be more takedown possible in gold from a paper market perspective given that we are dancing on the 50 day moving average, although recent strong gold physical demand may argue against that. In silver, we are deep into the “getting blood from a stone” levels of potential liquidation and it is hard to imagine massive new liquidation given how depleted the speculative long side has become.

I’m planning an article (probably on Wednesday) talking about some new factors favoring silver on a longer term basis that’s away from manipulation and the like, assuming no last minute developments. It’s been some time since I’ve been able to discuss silver in non-manipulative terms.


Financial Terrorism