2011年7月30日 星期六

Confusion Grips Wall Street

其實由2006年起, 我地已做好預防美元跌和通脹升的設拖, 所以買實金實銀, 睇來發生的日期已愈來愈近啦 !

finance.yahoo.com

With no resolution in sight to lift the debt-ceiling, investors are scrambling to find ways to hedge themselves against what was once unthinkable: A U.S. debt default and loss of triple-A rating.

Further spooked by Friday's shockingly weak GDP report, the stock market appears headed for a sixth-straight decline. In recent trading, the Dow was down 0.4% but off its earlier lows.

As discussed here earlier this week, concern about Washington's dysfunction has been evident in a variety of markets, notably gold's continue strength, the rising cost of U.S. credit default swaps and the dollar's weakness vs. the yen and Swiss franc. Meanwhile, the CME now says it won't accept short-term Treasuries as collateral while The WSJ reports the $4 trillion repo market is at risk if the U.S. loses its triple-A rating.

But there's a lot of confusion on Wall Street about how to plan for Aug. 2, as The WSJ's Greg Zuckerman and I discuss in the accompanying clip. This confusion is evident, most notably, by continued strength in U.S. Treasuries. In recent trading, the benchmark 10-year note was up 26/32, its yield falling to 2.85%.

"Treasuries are fascinating," Zuckerman says. "Do you sell them or do you buy them?"

On the surface, it seems illogical for traders to be buying the debt of an entity (the U.S. government) that is threatening to default. But the government has said making debt payments will be a priority; and if Congress does agree to a deal to slash government spending, that will likely put further pressure on an already weak economy, which is a bullish scenario for Treasuries.

As the week comes to a close, the conventional wisdom remains that "in the eleventh hour, [Congress] will come up with some compromise," as Zuckerman puts it. That view is preventing panic on Wall Street, which is a good thing. But the lack of market panic means there's less pressure on Congress to reach a compromise before the Aug. 2 deadline, creating a chicken and egg conundrum.

Confused? You're not alone.

8 則留言:

honson 提到...

高興自己能夠身處在這亂世時代,好等有些經歷,學習,學習。

Lisa 提到...

好彩科技發達, 在網上有好多有用的訊息, 還有宋鴻兵的貨幣戰爭, 救咗好多人 !

匿名 提到...

係呀,Lisa,我幾年前睇貨幣戰爭(1),學到好多野.前年介紹給朋友睇,可惜無人睬我.
nlpsonia

Lisa 提到...

回nlpsonia,
教人買實金實銀是好難的, 第一貨源少, 第二收藏難, 所以都要D人自己去發掘 !

Gordon 提到...

我是貨幣戰爭1 和 2,一起看的,回想當時手不釋卷呢。

隨便估下,香港有幾多%人是金銀甲,買實金實銀投資的呢?

又認識到世上有大勢力的呢?

1%?

Lisa 提到...

回Gordon,
好少囉, 因為在我身邊只有我一位親家買咗銀幣 !

嘉芙蓮 提到...

呢幾日好多朋友從股票跳車,當初我也多次叫朋友們減持轉實物,不過最終聽我講的只有一兩人。

Lisa 提到...

回嘉芙蓮,
港人慣咗賺快錢, 慢慢升個D唔合胃口!
2005年我退休也沽出手上大部份股票, 而在2006-2008年慢慢儲實金, 睇住D人在歡呼下炒上去32000, 之後達咗落來 ! 在10600我才再入市, 個轉去到 2009年賺到錢, 2010年要蝕返D, 而因為睇唔多對路又減持手上股票轉吸實銀 !
好多股民因為之前個升勢賺到好多錢, 所以還在發夢有日又會去返32000或更高 !
但D人無計到, 炒上去32000的錢是來之投行賣次按產品吹出來的, 而依家是還債的時期, 投行已變落水狗, 所以錢由何來 ?
可能股市要跟隨日本後塵, 由30000落去10000之後升都升唔起 !
唔識轉身的人我都幫佢唔到 !