2012年1月1日 星期日

Stephen Leeb: Expect $5 Gas, $60 Silver & $3,000 Gold in 2012


kingworldnews.com


With 2011 coming to a close and gold and silver stabilizing after the recent smash, today King World News interviewed acclaimed money manager Stephen Leeb, Chairman & Chief Investment Officer of Leeb Capital Management. KWN wanted to get his outlook for 2012 and thoughts on the recent takedown in the metals. When asked about the action in gold, Leeb responded, “The fact that gold has gone down, in the face of what should be good news, has really spooked people. But there are a lot of reasons you can have corrections, even the strongest markets have corrections. This could have started because Paulson sold a big chunk of his GLD.”

Stephen Leeb continues:

“Why did he (Paulson) sell GLD? Because he bet a lot on banks and banks lost 25% or 30% in value. There may have been other hedge funds in the same position. To put this correction in perspective, in 2008 gold went down, from top to bottom, by 34%. Most of that decline followed Bear Stearns. It reflected a lack of liquidity in the system.

The point I’m making is these kind of corrections are just that, corrections. This is hard to believe, but gold today, it’s yearly average is 20% higher than the yearly average in 2010. That’s a remarkable move. Gold had a great year.

All of the sudden you have an asset that’s been in an eleven year bull market and everybody is bearish on it. It’s quite remarkable when you think about it.

I just want to add that we are now shutting down refineries in this country because they are no longer profitable.....

“That means you could have a floor, not a ceiling, but a floor of $4 per gallon of gasoline this summer.

If Europe ever does get its act together we could see crude move to $120 to $130 a barrel. That would mean $5 a gallon gasoline at the pump. This is going to be a massive tax on consumers for which the government gets no benefit.

It’s going to slow down the economy and at the same time it will juice up inflation. This means the Fed is not going to risk another depression so they may loosen in the face of inflation going up. If that happens, not that gold would even need it, but this would take gold’s uptrend and add multiple turbo-boosters to it.

I’ll give you my target for gold at the end of 2012, it’s going to be trading somewhere between $2,500 and $3,000. This correction, in other words, is a non-event. The rubber band analogy applies here, for every dollar down on gold, it will mean an extra dollar on the upside when we get the reversal.

It’s so important for investors that are not seasoned, it’s so important not to get shaken out of your position here. And if you have extra money on the side, this is a great buying opportunity.

Segueing into silver, silver is even better here. The Chinese have started to stockpile silver, sort of hidden in an announcement they made the other day. They are not going to export any silver. China is not going to export, according to their latest announcement, not even one ounce of silver.

So, if I were to target silver for the end of 2012, I’m going to be very, very conservative and say silver will finish 2012 at $60. It’s going to make new all-time highs.”

5 則留言:

旺旺 提到...

Lisa,
如果金價去到3000, 不過,Steven Leeb 係金銀大好友 :)

點睇2012樓市?

其實見到呢排的樓價, 我係有少少心動,因為我留意開的地區, 已經俾我地9月睇樓時跌了10%.

都係等多兩年,2014. 現在不是入市時機,銀行關水喉.
記得你講過, 留意息率火山爆發 :)
旺旺

Lisa 提到...

回旺旺,
呢個亂世時代要俾投資建議是好難的 !
樓市跌定沒 ? 我唔知 !
如果有錢多可以一次過俾錢買, 而又遇到好樓盤買來收租是可行的, 不過要借錢買就要好小心的啦 ! 一怕價可以再跌, 二怕利率大升 !
睇李居明預測, 最壞時段會在2014年出現 !
所以有少少錢多, 最好分散在人民幣, 實金實銀 !

Master NLP 提到...

Steven Leeb 一向是黃金大好友.08年接受iMoney訪問時已經睇5000.

今日丁世民有篇文踩金捧銀. Lisa,你可以去....睇

Lisa 提到...

回nlpsonia,
好多個專家都叫人沽金買銀, http://silverdoctors.blogspot.com/就係其中之一個 !
不過我認為點都要有實金在倉內, 全是實銀都唔知放邊, 租多幾個保管箱都唔掂 XDDD ! 還有放銀都麻煩過放金, 所以實金一定要有 !

旺旺 提到...

Lisa,
謝謝意見.
今日我同先生都出左去update價格. 實際情況係業主轉放售為放租, 交投偏軟買賣兩閒,.無咩好盤
隔段時間再去格下價:)