www.cnbc.com
Stephanie Landsman
One of Wall Street's most respected forecasters says the
market's rally is in trouble, and that investors are likely to do better
by betting on gold.
The Dow Jones industrial average and S&P 500
Index have staged dramatic comebacks from their lows, erasing or nearly
erasing their losses for the year. In fact, the Dow's rebound may prove
to be its best intraquarter rebound since 1933.
But JPMorgan Global Head of Quantitative and Derivatives Research Marko Kolanovic argued recently on CNBC's "Fast Money" that the strong run may in fact be in jeopardy.
Kolanovic, who is closely followed
by the hedge fund industry, said that the rally since Feb. 11 has been
more technical in nature, and largely motivated by momentum investors
covering their bets that the S&P would fall.
That is, the popular trade of being long momentum stocks against a
short position on the S&P 500 is being unwound. This comes as
momentum names have sharply unperformed value stocks, leading to
nightmarish performance for the long/short mix in question.
Since the market bounce has been largely driven by repositioning, he sees little reason for it to continue in a meaningful way.
"Although risk slightly may be on
the upside rather than on downside, I would say fundamentally ... you
[potentially] have 5 percent upside and 10 percent downside, so it
doesn't look that great," said Kolanovic.
He further argued that investors should stick with the defensive gold trade right now, even after the recent surge in prices.
The Federal Reserve's more dovish policy outlook "should put some downward pressure on the dollar and hence should be supportive of gold."
In addition, the rising chance of Donald Trump's becoming the next president could also be bearish for the dollar,
given the restrictive trade measures he has proposed, such as large
tariffs against Chinese goods. "Generally, the U.S. dollar could be
under some pressure if you have these types of policies," said
Kolanovic.
Kolanovic's accuracy streak on the markets and policy has been
burnished by his predicting of several market drops in the second half
of 2015. More recently, he accurately called rebounds in gold and crude
oil on the Feb. 8 edition of "Fast Money."
Since then, gold and oil have risen about 8 percent and 30 percent, respectively.
on.cc東網專訊
【on.cc東網專訊】
據外國傳媒報道，「貼中」油金上月見底、被譽為「神人附體」的摩根大通量化及衍生工具研究部環球主管科拉諾維奇(Marko
Kolanovic)表示，美股近期反彈不過是動能投資者爭相平掉標指淡倉所推動，技術因素較大，預料美股僅能再上最多5%，惟下跌空間有10%，再加上
聯儲局上周議息較市場預期「鴿派」，投資者應盡快買金避險。
科氏續稱，聯儲局幣策跟歐、日央行差距不如預期大，主張對華實施高額關稅的特朗普代表共和黨參選美國總統的機率上升，均不利美元走勢。
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