kingworldnews.com
Is it true that the gold price now has an 83% chance of being higher in 90 days?
Risk Level Dropping For Gold
June 23 (King World News) – This note was Jason Goepfert at SentimenTrader yesterday: Gold
risk. The Optimism Index on gold has been falling fast, down from
nearly 70 earlier this month to below 40 now. With the modestly positive
price trend, that has lowered the Risk Level to 2.
Over
the past three years, when Risk was 2 or below, gold showed a positive
return over the next three months on 82 out of 99 days (83% of the
time), averaging +5.0%. Seasonality is turning exceptionally positive –
now if we could just see hedgers become more positive, it would be a
good setup.
King World News note: Speaking of hedgers, there was more covering by commercials in the gold market…
Below is a 10-year chart of commercial trading in the gold market.
For those wondering about the gold “Optix” that Goepfert referred to, here is a 10-year chart below.
For
those wondering what the commercials are up to in the silver market,
the chart below shows more commercial short covering there as well.
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