2023年1月31日 星期二
為什麼美國盯上了這家中國衛星公司？
美國國務院和財政部日前對俄羅斯瓦格納集團相關個人和實體實施制裁，清單中包括一家中國商業衛星公司，長沙天儀空間科技研究院有限公司，原因是該公司「幫助了瓦格納在烏克蘭的作戰行動」。
天儀研究院對此發聲明稱，天儀研究院及其子公司與俄羅斯Terra Tech公司及Wagner集團（瓦格納集團）不存在業務往來，天儀研究院產品及服務皆用於民事和商事用途，不涉及任何軍事用途。
為什麼美國要對這家並不算出名的中國商業衛星公司下手？
根據「天儀」公司的官方介紹，該公司運營著26顆SAR衛星，目標是建立SAR星座並提供一站式SAR數據整體解決方案。目前已經有中國首顆商業SAR衛星「海絲一號」及中國首顆商業組網SAR衛星「巢湖一號」等衛星在軌。
有分析認為，美國之所以對「天儀」公司實施制裁，有好大原因是盯上了中國正在大力發展的SAR衛星星座。
過往一提到偵察衛星，外界很容易想到的就是美國「鎖眼」系列光學偵察衛星和「長曲棍球」系列雷達成像偵察衛星，它們憑借極高分辨率，成為美國從太空中偷窺別國的賊眼。
然而，這些衛星不但造價昂貴（十億美元以上）、體積龐大，而且還有一個相當要命的弱點——由於這些衛星在軌數量相對較少，因此對手的地面部隊只要算好偵察衛星的過頂時間，提前做好隱蔽工作，就能在很大程度上躲開美國偵察衛星的窺探。
除了這個反衛星偵察的常規手段之一，對手還能用上反衛星激光武器甚至反衛星導彈，來對付美國的偵察衛星。
近年來，隨著電子設備小型化和商業衛星技術的快速進步，大批商業衛星公司也能建造性能相當不錯的對地遙感衛星。儘管在分辨率上可能還比不上專業的軍用偵察衛星，但它們的優勢也很明顯：體積小巧、成本低廉。這些商業衛星公司動輒就是要發展數十顆遙感衛星組成的衛星星座，一旦它們用於軍事目的，防備難度就大得多了。
首先，這些小型衛星星座的數量多、重訪時間很短，甚至可以形成不同衛星接力對某個地點連續偵察的情況，以往卡著過頂時間躲開窺探的方法就不再奏效。例如在俄烏衝突初期，俄軍裝甲部隊和後勤車隊在基輔附近排長隊的衛星照片，就是由美國商業衛星公司拍攝。
其次，這些衛星的建造成本低，還可以批量生產發射，大大削弱了傳統反衛星武器的威懾力。美國SpaceX公司CEO馬斯克就曾經揚言，對手擊落「星鏈」衛星的費用比製造和發射「星鏈」衛星的成本還高。
除了對付衛星的難度大之外，西方商業衛星公司的數據服務也比五角大樓傳統的衛星情報解讀更快一步。去年五角大樓專門與多家西方商業衛星公司簽訂協議，利用它們的及時衛星數據服務，幫助美軍解讀俄軍的作戰部署動態。
可見，西方商業衛星公司的小型衛星星座的軍用潛力相當之大，由此也不難理解，為何美國對中國的商業衛星公司如此忌憚。
這家「天儀」公司不但在發展小型衛星星座，而且還將主要注意力集中在SAR衛星和衛星數據服務上——SAR衛星的對地觀測不受天氣和晝夜影響，還能穿透地表一定厚度的植被、砂土、積雪等，獲得表層以下的圖像。「天儀」公司之前曾表示，將提升SAR衛星成像性能，把分辨率提升到0.5米，同時將衛星重量做的更輕，成本相對於傳統同指標衛星下降一個數量級。
分析認為，雖然天儀方面強調其衛星主要應用於國土資源普查與地形測繪，海洋環境監測與船舶識別，農產品估產與農業資源調查等民用領域，「公司及子公司與美國提到的瓦格納集團等不存在業務往來，所有產品及服務皆用於民事和商事用途，不涉及任何軍事用途」，但美國的制裁根本目的就是要遏制中國在相關領域的進步，所謂「與瓦格納集團有關」不過是藉口而已。
不過，中國航天從來就是在美國的制裁和封鎖中成長起來的。何況小型衛星星座技術進步所帶來的影響，更不是美國的暴力制裁所能阻擋。
止戈堂
全球黃金需求去年創11年新高
世界黃金協會(WGC)發布數據顯示，由於全球央行巨額購買，加上散戶投資者積極購買和ETF流出放緩，將去年度黃金需求推高至11年高位。
去年度黃金需求(不包括場外交易)升18%，至4741噸，是自2011年以來的最高年度總需求量；其中，全球央行年度購買量達到1136噸，為55年來新高。
余偉文：外匯基金無直接投資FTX
香港文匯報訊（記者 馬翠媚）加密貨幣交易所 FTX 早前爆煲後隨即申請破產保護，有外媒報道，在最新披露的潛在債權人名單中香港的金管局、證監會亦名列其中。金管局總裁余偉文昨回應時指，外匯基金沒有直接投資於FTX，亦強調金管局與FTX沒有債權及投資關係。
金管局發言人早前表示，留意到相關名單為一間美國金融諮詢公司編制，當中包含數千間公司，包括各司法管轄區的監管機構和公共機構。
或有間接投資虛擬資產
余偉文昨最新解釋指，有關潛在債權人名單數以千計，包括不同地區的監管機構，因此香港亦未有例外，他亦引述有關方面補充指由於希望有關名單盡量擴大，故有不少其實與FTX無債權關係，或者無任何投資關係的機構或公司都被放在名單上，這亦解釋為何金管局名列該名單。
他又指，外匯基金的投資限制上並沒有禁制基金投資虛擬資產或相關的公司，雖然外匯基金無直接投資在該類資產，但外匯基金所投資的不同基金，又或者私募市場上的一般合夥人，他們有較大彈性投資在不同地方，或會有部分投資於與虛擬資產相關的公司，但此屬該基金公司的投資決定，他重申外匯基金沒有直接投資於其他虛擬資產。
「春季大戰」一觸即發？ 外媒：俄烏或爆發歐洲二戰以來從未出現的全面戰爭
隨著冬天的結束，俄烏戰爭第三階段即將開始，各地戰場正「暗潮湧動」。
有分析指出，在俄烏衝突爆發「一週年」之際，雙方都需要突破，但無論誰先出擊，前所未有的大規模攻勢都將充滿風險。衝突將進入最激烈階段，或將成為歐洲自二戰以來從未出現的全面戰爭。
誰會先下手為強，又會從哪裡發動攻勢？
1月11日，俄國防部宣佈，俄聯邦武裝力量總參謀長瓦列里·格拉西莫夫被任命為俄羅斯對烏克蘭特別軍事行動區域聯合部隊總指揮。許多分析人士認為，此舉預示著一場大規模進攻即將展開。
分析指出，即將開始的俄烏衝突第三階段戰鬥，將是一場全面的戰鬥，機械化步兵、炮兵、空中力量，可能還有水上突擊隊將形成聯合部隊以搶佔固定陣地。這將是自上世紀八十年代的兩伊戰爭以來，世界從未出現的戰事，也是歐洲自第二次世界大戰以來從未出現的全面戰爭。
1月28日，烏克蘭國家安全與國防委員會秘書丹尼洛夫在接受採訪時稱，俄羅斯正準備發動新一輪進攻「並非秘密」，而時間點或在俄烏衝突爆發「一週年」，即2月24日前。丹尼洛夫稱，俄羅斯希望在「全面戰爭」爆發一週年之際取得一些成果，俄軍的主要目標很可能是完全控制盧甘斯克和頓涅茨克地區。
與此同時，烏克蘭軍隊的緊迫感也日益增強，他們迫切希望掌握主動權，率先發起攻勢，先發制人，阻止俄羅斯發動大規模進攻。然而，烏軍正因還沒有能發起攻勢所需的「工具」而感到沮喪。
在扎波羅熱附近的胡利埃波爾鎮，烏軍高級中士維塔利表示，他不得不自己買槍繼續戰鬥，他所乘坐的專車也是志願者提供的。如果需要坦克支援，他就必須請求另一個營的幫助。
1月29日，烏總統澤連斯基發表視頻講話表示，眼下「形勢非常嚴峻」，在巴赫穆特、維勒達及頓涅茨克東部的其他地區，俄羅斯不斷發動襲擊，試圖突破烏軍的防禦。「俄羅斯希望拖延並耗盡我們的力量。所以我們必須讓時間成為武器。我們必須加快事態發展，加快援烏武器供應並開闢新的武器選擇。」
美國國防部前副助理部長、安全專家吉姆·湯森指出，俄羅斯或將在春季發動進攻。但如果俄方認為西方國家上周宣佈交付的新一批坦克將很快送抵烏克蘭，俄軍可能會加快計劃發動攻勢。
而烏軍可能將在其認為俄軍防線最薄弱的地方，即「更加疲憊和士氣低落」的盧甘斯克東部試圖發動攻勢。基輔智庫「拉祖姆科夫中心」外交關係和國際安全項目聯席主任梅爾尼克認為，烏軍或採取與以前相同的做法，同時為不同戰線的行動做好準備，然後在條件最有利的地方展開攻勢。
據報道，在成功說服西方各國提供321輛重型坦克後，基輔正加快與西方盟友就遠程導彈和軍用飛機交付的可能性進行談判。
法國總統馬克龍日前表示，他不排除向烏克蘭提供戰機。但在作出決定前，法國將制定一些先決條件，包括烏克蘭必須先提出要求，而任何武器都不會令局勢升級，而且不會被用來打擊俄羅斯領土，純粹只是為了幫助「抵抗入侵」。
荷蘭政界人士最近提出向烏克蘭交付F-16戰機的想法，但首相呂特回應馬克龍的謹慎評論指，「沒有任何禁忌，但這將是一大步」。呂特表示，「這根本不是F-16的問題，（烏克蘭）沒有提出要求」。
分析還指出，這場「全面戰鬥」將發生在烏克蘭東部或烏克蘭南部地區。
過去幾個月「戰鬥最激烈」的盧甘斯克和頓涅茨克地區，很可能是雙方春季發動大規模進攻的地方。根據烏克蘭軍隊的報告，最近幾天在烏東部巴赫穆特和烏格列達爾等地的戰鬥正不斷加劇。1月25日，基輔方面承認，在進行了數周的「激烈戰鬥」後，烏軍已經失去對東頓涅茨克地區城鎮索列達爾的控制權，並從當地撤軍。
與此同時，隨著冬季接近尾聲，在「沉寂已久」的烏克蘭南部，戰事也已開始升溫。本月，在南部前線的扎波羅熱地區，雙方發射的炮彈和火箭彈數量已增加了一倍多，達到每天4000枚。丹尼洛夫在1月28日也透露，俄軍一周以來一直在偵察烏軍在扎波羅熱方向的防禦能力，且正在集結兵力。
有分析認為，烏克蘭南部戰事將決定俄烏衝突的結果。如果烏軍想奪回赫爾松、扎波羅熱和克里米亞地區，將不得不轉向南方。一種可能的情況是，進攻將從梅利托波爾地區開始，另一個更大膽的選擇，則是通過水路強渡第聶伯河進入赫爾松。
據報道，俄羅斯已向南部前線派出了一支「受過在寒冷潮濕地區作戰訓練的精英特種部隊」，即北方艦隊第80北極旅。烏克蘭也正在準備自己的水上特種部隊，美國已在最新一攬子軍事支持中向烏克蘭提供了河流巡邏艇，可用於對第聶伯河的突襲行動。
然而，對俄烏雙方而言，發動大規模攻勢都是一項充滿風險的艱巨任務，意味著將有更多的死傷和更高的戰鬥成本。
深喉
Omicron新變種「雙頭犬」更易致重症 美研究：英港佔四分一新增病例
新型冠狀病毒Omicron新變種CH.1.1（又稱雙頭犬）自2022年11月起在全球蔓延，在短短3個月間，已擴散至72國，染病者人數持續上升，引起外國病學家關注。有研究指該種傳播力強、更易引致重症的新病毒已在香港和英國各上升至新增病例的四份之一。
CH.1.1是Omicron變異株BA.2.75的其中一個變異株，於2022年秋季首次在東南亞被發現，被澳洲病毒專家哈尼（Mike Honey）命名為 Orthrus，即希臘神話中的雙頭犬。
美國俄亥俄州立大學的研究人員上周發布的一篇預印本論文指出，CH.1.1在紐西蘭部分地區已佔新病例約三分之一，在英國、香港、巴布亞新幾內亞約佔四分之一。
以上研究指，由於在CH.1.1中發現罕見的L452R突變，估計該病毒更容易與 新冠病毒感染人體細胞的部位ACE2受體結合，產生更強的免疫逃脫力，因此傳播力更強大，亦更容易導致重症病況。研究又指，Omicron二價疫苗對CH.1.1的保護力，弱於對XBB和BQ.1.1等變種。
瑞士巴塞爾大學（University of Basel）上周發表的報告估計，感染CH.1.1的病例將以平約每兩週翻一倍的速度上升。
2023年1月30日 星期一
外滙基金去年投資虧損2024億
外滙基金去年錄得歷來最大虧損，金管局公布，外滙基金2022年錄得投資虧損2024億元，盈轉虧，2021年錄得投資收入1919億元。去年投資回報率為負4.4%。單計去年第四季，投資收入764億元，扭轉連續三季虧損。
去年「股滙債」齊齊錄得虧損，香港股票虧損195億元；其他股票投資虧損612億元；港元資產外滙估值下調401億元；債券投資虧損533億元；其他投資虧損283億元。
2022年外滙基金支付予財政儲備存款與香港特別行政區政府基金及法定組織存款的息率為5.6%，2022年有關費用分別是350億元及221億元。
外滙基金的總資產減少5591億元，由2021年底的45702億元，減少至2022年底的40111億元。於2022年12月底，外滙基金累計盈餘為5555億元。
去年外滙基金的投資回報率為負4.4%，其中「投資組合」回報率為負8.6%，而「支持組合」為負0.4%。「長期增長組合」自2009年開展投資至2022年9月底的內部回報率年率為13%。
金管局總裁余偉文表示，金融市場經歷了異常動盪的一年。年初爆發的俄烏衝突觸發能源和商品價格大幅上漲，加上各地疫情不穩亦衝擊環球供應鏈，導致多個主要經濟體面對通脹飆升的問題，促使主要央行的貨幣政策急速轉向。去年的投資環境不單打破「股債互補」的傳統投資智慧，更成為近半世紀以來唯一一次股票、債券和主要非美元貨幣滙兌同時錄得負回報的一年。
他稱，展望2023年，金融市場仍然受到眾多不確定因素困擾，相信資產價格會持續波動。環球央行的貨幣政策將繼續主導投資前景，市場十分關注主要央行政策利率的峰值，而通脹走勢則是箇中關鍵。儘管通脹在2022年底似乎有見頂回落的跡象，但仍遠高於主要央行訂立的目標。聯邦公開市場委員會最近的議息紀錄亦提出，政策重點仍是遏制通脹，預期今年還有加息空間。在通脹和利率走勢尚未穩定下，如果實際情況與市場預期出現較大偏差，資產價格難免會再出現猛烈的波動或調整。
此外，持續的緊縮貨幣政策已為環球經濟增長構成阻力。多間機構紛紛調低今年的環球經濟增長預測，部分主要經濟體更可能陷入經濟衰退。再者，地緣政治緊張局勢仍具潛在的破壞力：俄烏的緊張局勢導致的能源危機，以及主要經濟體之間的貿易關係，都可能進一步影響環球經濟增長並使避險情緒升溫。
余偉文稱，比較樂觀的是，受惠於內地防疫措施逐漸放寬及刺激經濟措施的推出，中國經濟今年有望強勁復甦。與此同時，隨着市場預期通脹進一步放緩，以致加息步伐放慢，債券將變得更具吸引力。現時主要國債收益率處於多年高位，持有債券讓投資者能獲取較高的利息收入。
他表示，面對複雜多變的投資環境，外滙基金仍然會以「保本先行，長期增值」為投資原則，金管局會繼續小心謹慎地管理外滙基金，保持靈活性，作出適當的防禦性部署，維持高流動性。金管局亦會持續多元化投資，以穩定外匯基金的長期投資回報。
四川省未婚生子將合法 撤生育數量限制
中國四川省近日修訂了生育登記服務管理辦法，取消了對登記對象是否結婚的限制條件，並取消了生育數量的限制。新政將於2月15日起施行，有效期5年。
四川省衞健委稱，將生育登記的重心轉移到生育意願和生育結果上來，回歸人口監測及生育服務本位。
新辦法是對2019年3月出台的相關辦法進行修訂完善。此前政府規定只有已婚婦女可以合法生育。
數據顯示，四川60歲以上人口數量在全國排名第七，佔其總人口的21%以上。
深圳奇謀助五千企業搶人才
香港文匯報訊（記者 李昌鴻 深圳報道）每年春節，都有大量深圳企業的員工回內陸地區的老家過年，加上內地其他城市的發展機會也很多，以及深圳生活成本高，有的內地員工回老家後就乾脆留在老家或去其他城市發展。作為全國高科技創新和製造中心，十分渴求各類人才，深圳幫助企業在全國爭搶人才。
2.7億補貼市外職工返崗
近日，深圳人社局組織廣西近400名工人免費乘坐高鐵前來工作，吸引了廣泛的關注。深圳甚至拿出2.7億元（人民幣，下同），對2月5日前市外原在崗職工返崗達500人以上的企業，按照每人200元的標準發放一次性返崗交通補助。
首季辦招聘活動超200場
為了幫助企業招聘人才，深圳市政府微信公眾號「深圳發布」日前發布信息稱，目前深圳有超5,000家企業招人，來自深圳人力資源和社會保障局消息稱，2023年1至3月期間，深圳全市計劃開展招聘活動場次達到208次。其中線上111場次，線下97場次，共計有超過5,000家企業發布招聘需求，各個區舉行相關活動，幫助企業招聘人才。除了廣西外，深圳市還將組織用工企業赴東西部協作對口幫扶地市和勞動力輸出大省市開展各類招聘活動。
香港文匯報記者獲悉，深圳從事5G射頻芯片測試、5G產品測試和射頻器件設計製作的高科技企業隆興旺電子科技正在高薪招聘人才，其已分別在深圳、上海、重慶成立公司三地設計製造，全球交貨。該公司節後正大力招聘工程師，包括結構設計工程師、電子工程師和助理電子工程師等，薪水從1萬到1.8萬元不等，要求大專和本科等以上學歷。
美股本周焦點:三大央行議息
雖然企業業績消息參差，但美國股市上周造好。展望本周，市場最重視焦點首推聯儲局，歐洲央行及英倫銀行等三大央行議息結果，其次是美國藍籌業績消息，而中國農曆新年假期結束後的股市情形也不容忽視。
回顧上周，美國大型企業業績消息好壞參半，但通脹數據較預期佳，聯儲局放緩加息的揣測升溫。道指進賬1.81%，標指抽高2.47%，納指攀升4.32%，為連升第4周。
本周，市場首要焦點是聯儲局周二及三的議息。究竟聯儲局會否一如預期地降低加息步伐至0.25厘，到時候便有分曉。
聯儲局12月時把加息幅度由0.75厘降為0.5厘，倘若今次再降至0.25厘，反映聯儲局對於通脹降勢感到滿意。
同時，周五公布的美國1月非農業職位數據也成為焦點。市場預期，非農業職位將增增加18.5萬個，低於前一月的22.3萬個，而失業率料上升至3.6%，平均時薪按月輕微下跌。
其他受關注的美國數據還有上月職位空缺及周三的供應管理協會(ISM)採購經理指數(PMI)。
第二個市場焦點是歐洲央行周四的議息。市場預期，歐央行將加息半厘。此點相信毋須置疑，但市場期望聽到歐央行行長拉加德對下次加息的看法，以衡量歐央行對通脹走勢的判斷及3月加息幅度。
在歐央行議息前，歐盟將於周二公布第四季本地生產總值，預期將輕微萎縮。至於周三公布的通脹，市場預期會連續三個月回落。
第三個市場焦點是英倫銀行周四的議息。市場預期，英倫銀行屆時將加息半厘，是連續第十次加息，以應對高通脹。
投資者期望英倫銀行官員屆時會否表明加息週期接近尾聲。市場目前估計，3月將是英倫銀行最後一次加息，加幅為0.25厘。
第四個焦點是美國藍籌業績。本周的焦點在於周四，亞馬遜，蘋果與Alphabet三大科技龍頭同日公布季度業績。另一間科技龍頭Meta選擇周三公布消息。
上周，微軟公布季績，表現有喜有悲，令到其他科技巨擘業績消息更形重要。目前，標指成分股內，143間已經公布季績，67.8%優於市場預期，略高於歷史平均值的66%，但低前四季的76%。
第五個焦點是中國股市在農曆年假後重開。中國農曆年假旅遊數據強勁，反映新冠疫情對經濟的困擾減退，中國股市料成為經濟表現的寒暑表。
同時，中國將於周二公布PMI數據，也會反映經濟重振的情況。
「懶人基金」深受年輕打工仔歡迎 劉麥嘉軒 : 逾3成投資者屬29歲以下
港人工作繁忙，加上未必人人都懂得投資，不少市民並無積極管理強積金。積金局主席劉麥嘉軒透露，積金局於2017年推出俗稱「懶人基金」以來，截至去年9月，約有280萬個強積金帳戶投資於DIS，按年上升約10.3%。投資於DIS的強積金帳戶，更較多由年輕計畫成員持有。其中29歲及以下計畫成員多達32%，30至39歲及40至49歲分別佔22%和18%。至於50至59歲和60歲及以上則分別佔18% 和10%，顯示DIS特別受年輕計畫成員歡迎。
去年第三季新參與強積金計畫成員中 25.4%選擇「懶人基金」
劉麥嘉軒在29日發表的網誌指出，「懶人基金」適合沒有太多時間管理自己強積金的人士。DIS設有「隨齡降險」的自動調節機制，逐年調整投資於股票及債券的比重，減低成員於接近退休年齡時所面對的投資風險，適合長期退休儲蓄投資。同時，DIS採納分散投資的原則，基金資產分布於環球股票及債券市場，有助分散地區及資產類別的風險，並設有收費上限。
根據積金局最新數字，去年第三季內新參與強積金計畫的成員所持有的帳戶中，共有25.4%的帳戶投資於DIS，當中有超過65%帳戶的持有人更是主動選擇投資，反映DIS除了是為沒有向強積金受託人給予投資指示的計畫成員效勞外，其投資設定（收費管控、分散投資及「隨齡降險」機制）亦具吸引力，受不少計畫成員歡迎。截至去9月，投資於DIS的強積金資產共有768億元，佔所有強積金基金的總淨資產值8%。
她指出， 如果現行計畫成員認為自己缺乏投資知識和時間管理強積金，則可積極考慮DIS／懶人基金這個現成投資策略。
每名計畫成員10年間強積金累積增幅約93%
截至2022 年12月底，整個制度總資產值約$10,500億，較10年前增加了139%，反映透過僱主僱員定期供款及投資回報所帶來的複息效應下，強積金制度達致長時間投資滾存、累積增值的目的。而截至2022年12月底，每名計畫成員平均已累積$224,000強積金資產，相對2012年底，每名計畫成員平均累積$116,000強積金資產，10年間累積增幅約93%。
Israel Attacks Iran
We are getting reports that Israel has launched drone attacks on Iran in an attempt to prevent it from achieving nuclear weapons. We are also getting disturbing reports from Asia. This General has come out and said there will be war with China by 2025 which has sparked an avalanche of emails asking if they are using our model, all I can say is everyone looks at it. Yes, we see international war at its worst between 2025 into 2027. But things are to begin here in 2023.
I laid this out at our 2011 WEC in Philadelphia. These are our COMPUTER forecasts – not my personal opinion. I am not in the business of trying to get people to buy something and scaring them into something to separate them from their money. I certainly do not run advertisements claiming this is the guy that predicted WWII do what does he say now!
Personally, I wish this was not happening. I have tried my best to argue against this, but the people we have cheering for war are just insane. Every war is longer and far worse than people think going in. Every war results in twice as many civilians being killed than soldiers.
When I was 13 and went to Europe with my family, etched into my memory was when I was staring at the bullet holes in a wall in Berlin. An old guy came up to me and started yelling – “You did that!” I saw the hatred in his eyes – the scare of war.
There are ONLY three ways to prevent World War III.
- (1) the West stops this BS, honors the Minsk Agreement, lets the Donbas vote on their own status, or
- (2) The Ukrainian overthrew Zelensky who was elected promising peace with Russia.
- (3) Russia nukes Kyiv and pounds its chest asking – Is this where you want to go?
This insanity thinking that Russia can be easily defeated, we occupy Russia with troops, and peace will return is a fool’s dream. There are far more nationalists waiting to grab power and they will just as soon push the button and wipe out all of Europe no different than the dreams of American Neocons. Do you really want Russia in chaos and civil way with more than 6,000 nuclear weapons on the loose? Nobody seems to have thought about what really happens here.
None of this is my PERSONAL desire or forecast. My job is only to lay out what the computer projects.
伊朗稱攔截3架無人機
伊朗國營通訊社(IRNA)報道，伊朗中部城市伊斯法罕(Isfahan)一間兵工廠遭無人機攻擊未果，期間傳出巨大爆炸聲。
報道指，伊朗國防部發聲明稱，該國防空系統成功攔截3架無人機，其中一架被擊中，另外兩架跌入防禦陷阱後爆炸，襲擊未有造成任何傷亡，只有工廠屋頂輕微損壞。
廣東召開萬人發展大會 粵港合作更上台階
大年初七，當全國仍然洋溢着春節氣氛之際，全國經濟「一哥」廣東急不及待地在節後首個開工日，召開全省高質量發展大會。這是近年來廣東省規模最大的會議，也是一場「拼經濟、謀發展」的誓師大會，透露的訊息量巨大。
呼應習「實幹」號召
本月20日春節前夕，國家主席習近平在新春團拜會上表示，2023年「希望與挑戰並存」，強調要腳踏實地，埋頭苦幹，努力實現經濟運行整體好轉，「靠實幹開創更加美好的未來」。廣東此時召開萬人大會，正好呼應最高領導人「實幹拼經濟」的號召。
過去一年，內地經濟飽受疫情、俄烏戰事、美國加息等內外因素影響，GDP增長僅百分之三，罕有地未能達到官方目標。疫後復甦是今年中國經濟的主題，各省市近期紛紛發出軍令狀，力爭首季GDP「開門紅」。
在拼經濟的大潮下，廣東勢必挑起大梁。廣東當局近期相當主動有為，除了派專列「搶工人」返崗外，深圳市也投入2.7億元補貼企業，為節後復工復產添動力。昨天召開的全省高質量發展大會，特別安排各地市、各單位和各方代表作表態發言，就是要比決心、比幹勁，比勇挑大梁的膽識和能力，可以預期廣東的復常之路，將會比外界預期的更加快。
內地重開國門，「南大門」廣東在同港澳及國際重新連接的過程中，也將扮演重要角色。廣東書記黃坤明在大會講話中特別強調，「改革開放是廣東最鮮明特徵，高質量發展是廣東最光明前途」，要「依託粵港澳大灣區這一重要動力源」。
隨着廣東及香港本月初實現通關，過去3年阻礙粵港融合的諸多障礙，將逐一掃清。廣東和本港在金融、科技、商貿，以及醫療、教育、旅遊等多個領域的合作，將會重新展開，水到渠成，更上台階。
全球首架國產C919客機完成兔年首飛
中國東方航空全球首架C919國產客機28日從上海虹橋機場起飛，往返江西南昌昌北國際機楊，開始兔年的首次飛行，C919飛機一百小時驗證飛行再添新航點。
這次驗證飛行主要模擬整個航班包括簽派放行、旅客登機、飛行員的操作、機務維修等整個運行過程，檢驗航空公司各個專業系統安全運行C919飛機的能力。
錫價11月迄今飆近八成
《金融時報》報道，隨着市場押注中國重新開放將提振原材料需求，各種工業金屬價格自去年11月以來大幅上升，領漲的錫價飆升近八成。
在錫、鋅和銅價帶動下，一組「基本金屬」的價格在3個月內飆升逾兩成，因受到美聯儲暗示加息步伐放緩，以及美元走軟的進一步支持。
2023年1月28日 星期六
美軍司令警告中美或最快2025年交戰
美國空軍機動司令部司令米尼漢警告，美國最快可能在2025年與中國交戰，最有可能是因為台灣問題引發，敦促司令部指揮官在今年推動部隊做好充分作戰準備。
美國傳媒取得米尼漢在一份內部備忘錄，他稱，希望自已錯誤，但直覺告訴自己，美中將於2025年開戰。他又解釋稱，美國和台灣明年都會舉行選舉，美國會因而分心，北京有機會對台灣採取行動。
米尼漢表示，他制定了準備目標，包括建立一支強化、準備就緒、綜合和靈活的聯合部隊機動小組，隨時準備在第一島鏈內作戰並取勝。
近期愈來愈多美國國會議員，呼籲華府加強援助台灣，包括直接向台灣提供軍援，認為俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭，突顯及早準備的必要性。
58歲女子墮「送貓陷阱」 失607萬元
警方於本月24日接獲一名58歲姓徐本地女子報案，指早前在網上平台認識一名女子，對方聲稱可贈送外地貓隻給她，並著受害人聯絡另一名自稱為航運公司職員的人士。
受害人遂按該名人士指示繳付相關費用以安排運送貓隻，對方其後表示貓隻在運輸途中死亡，而受害人可得到約15萬美元的保險賠償。
受害人被另一名自稱為外國銀行職員的人士告知需要繳付行政費以獲取相關賠償，遂按指示分40次將市值約607萬元的虛擬貨幣存入對方指定的一個電子錢包，該名騙徒其後向受害人索取更多金錢，受害人懷疑受騙，於是報案。
經初步調查，案件列「以欺騙手段取得財產」，交由荃灣警區刑事調查隊第四隊跟進，暫未有人被捕。
警方重申，任何人如觸犯香港法例第210章《盜竊罪條例》第十七條「以欺騙手段取得財產」罪，最高刑罰為監禁十年。警方呼籲市民，如有懷疑，應致電「防騙易18222」熱線作出查詢。
撤銷隔離令後請假安排一帖睇 6大要點打工仔僱主必讀
港府由1月30日起不再發出隔離令，打工仔對於日後一旦不幸染疫應如何處理有滿腹疑問，如身體狀況不宜工作應怎辦？如未能上班能否享有薪病假？無病徵可否返工？至於為人僱主的又有何要留意？因應撤銷隔離令，以下整合打工仔和僱主的疑問，看政府如何安排：
１。撤銷隔離令後，僱員染病如何處理？
1月30日起不再發出隔離令後，僱員如染疫以致身體狀況不適宜工作，應盡早求醫，放病假休息。僱員如獲發醫生證明書，僱主須按《僱傭條例》的規定及僱傭合約條款向僱員支付疾病津貼，有關條件與僱員患上其他疾病相同。
如僱員無特別不適及病徵，沒有需要放取病假的話，一般可如常工作，但須做好個人衛生措施；僱主如未能安排相關僱員上班，應向僱員支付薪酬，不能隨意扣除僱員在《僱傭條例》下享有的假期，例如有薪年假等。
２。《僱傭條例》下僱員享有疾病津貼的條件？
•病假不少於連續4天；
•能出示適當的醫生證明書；
•按連續性合約受僱（即連續受僱於同一僱主4星期或以上，而每星期最少工作18小時）；及
•已累積足夠的有薪病假。
掃上圖三的二維碼，即看《僱傭條例簡明指南》 第五章「疾病津貼」詳情
３。人流聚集的企業（如食肆）或個別企業／處所（如院舍）「的僱員檢測呈陽性應否上班？
僱主如按實際需要而採取額外防疫措施，應與僱員坦誠溝通，互諒互讓，協商雙方同意的安排。僱主亦應盡量體恤個別員工情況，作出彈性和寬鬆處理。
院舍：為保障院友健康，政府強烈建議院舍員工如果受感染，不應返回院舍值勤。政府呼籲院舍經營者容許這些員工在家休息，直至連續兩天取得快速測試陰性結果後才返回院舍值勤。
４。學校教職員自行檢測呈陽性的安排如何？
由1月30日起，全體學校教職員、校巴及保姆車工作人員無需每天進行快測。如學校教職員自行檢測呈陽性，須即時通知校方。
如出現明顯病徵應盡快求醫，不應回校上班，並需取得有效病假證明書以申請病假。
學校安排：如檢測陽性的學校教職員沒有出現病徵，可自由外出或上班，但應做好個人衛生措施和避免接觸高危人士或與他人同桌用膳，亦不應前往人多擠迫的地方及參與大型聚會。
學生方面，檢測陽性學生不應回校上課。
５。感染2019冠狀病毒病的僱員會否獲發病假紙？
感染人士應留意政府發出的健康建議，如身體不適應盡快向註冊醫生或註冊中醫求診，醫生會按照病人的臨床身體狀況簽發醫生證明書。
６。僱主可否解僱正放取有薪病假的僱員？
除因僱員犯嚴重過失而被即時解僱外，僱主不可以在僱員放取《僱傭條例》下的有薪病假期間解僱該僱員。僱主如違反上述規定，即屬違法，可被檢控，一經定罪，最高可被罰款10萬元。僱主亦須向被解僱的僱員支付應得的賠償。
同場加映
隔離令撤銷後中招點算好？ 7大健康措施建議一帖睇
隔離令撤銷後，市民無論是核酸檢測或快測陽性均無須呈報，也不用隔離，無病徵人士可自由外出或上班。但患者應跟隨港府提出的健康措施建議。
隔離令撤銷後中招點算好？
中國2025年要消滅大額紙幣？專家：現金將長期存在
央行此前發佈新版《不宜流通人民幣 紙幣》金融行業標準。該文件明確目的「是為了推廣數碼人民幣的使用」，不過近期內地有傳聞稱，中國或會「在2025年消滅大額紙幣」。北京的專家則指出，這是對央行文件的誤讀，「在可預見的將來，現金仍將長期存在。」
《新京報》27日引專家表示，2022年8月中國人民銀行發佈了新版《不宜流通人民幣 紙幣》金融行業標準，其目的是「為進一步提升流通中人民幣質量」，旨在進一步提升流通中人民幣整潔度，「確保公眾用上放心錢、乾淨錢」。
由於紙幣在流通過程中會逐漸磨損、老化，變髒變舊，這種 「髒污」類型的紙幣，屬於不宜流通人民幣，人民銀行在新標準中對髒污指標的評價標準進行了提升。隨著新標準的實施，公眾將會直觀感受到從銀行取出來的錢更乾淨整潔了。
對於有觀點認為央行此舉是為了推廣數碼人民幣的使用，專家表示，這是誤解。國家「十四五」規劃提出「穩妥推進數碼貨幣研發」。央行曾多次表示，數碼人民幣研發不是為了取代現金，而是為了助力數碼經濟發展，提升普惠金融發展水平，更好滿足人民群眾生產生活需要。在可預見的將來，現金仍將長期存在。
實際上，在今年兔年春節期間，使用數碼人民幣也成為試點城市的購物支付新潮流，小到個體商店、大到百貨商場，接入數碼人民幣交易系統的商家已有很多。北京市民姜女士說，線上支付時很多平台都會顯示「數碼人民幣」選項，又或是春節前買機票時，也會推薦使用數碼人民幣付款。
話你知：
Ｑ：何為數碼人民幣？
Ａ：數碼人民幣實質屬於流通中人民幣現金的補充，功能屬性與紙鈔完全一樣，不過是數碼化形態。中國人民銀行副行長範一飛解釋數字人民幣的政策時，指該貨幣主要定位於流通中現金（M0），是為與比特幣、全球性穩定幣等加密資產相競爭而研發，以向數碼經濟發展提供通用性的基礎貨幣。而該貨幣沿用原本的貨幣管理體系，在堅持中心化管理下發行，受到《中國人民銀行法》、《人民幣管理條例》等條文的約束，交易都會受監控。中央銀行在數碼人民幣體系中居於中心地位，向指定的商業銀行發放一定的數字人民幣並進行全生命週期管理，由商業銀行等機構再向社會公眾提供兌換和流通。
Ｑ：和比特幣等虛擬加密貨幣有什麼不同？
Ａ：比特幣等虛擬加密貨幣基本是「去中心化」，擁有者進行「點對點」交易，以區塊鏈作為底層技術。數碼人民幣雖然也是虛擬貨幣，但是與比特幣等虛擬貨幣有本質的區別，後者並非國家銀行發行，缺乏法償性；而數碼人民幣由人民銀行發行，以國家信用為擔保，效力完全等於一般流通現金。
Ｑ：可否離線交易？
Ａ：數碼人民幣採用了雙離線技術，只要交易雙方的手機上安裝了DC/EP數碼錢包，即使在無網絡與無銀行賬戶的情況下也可使用數碼人民幣完成轉賬。
Ｑ：數碼人民幣和支付寶、微信支付有何不同？
Ａ：雖然都是透過手機或其他行動電子平台使用，但背後差異很大。其不需連接網絡，不需連接銀行帳戶或信用卡，還可以在不同支付工具間轉帳（支付寶與微信不能互轉）。有學者認為，如果中國以國家力量推廣數碼人民幣，數碼人民幣就有可能會取代支付寶、微信支付。
2023年1月27日 星期五
俄羅斯指將派戰鬥版人形機械人「馬克」摧毀德美主戰坦克
俄羅斯國家航天集團公司前負責人、軍事技術專家組「沙皇之狼」負責人羅戈津在Telegram表示，俄方將製作戰鬥版的人形機械人「馬克」，送到戰場摧毀德國與美國向烏克蘭提供的主戰坦克。
俄通社引述羅戈津說，2月份將向頓巴斯運送4個「馬克」機械人，包括偵察版和攻擊版。「沙皇之狼」會培訓一支資訊科技專家隊伍作為「馬克」操作員，機械人將在訓練場磨合後直接送到前線。
據介紹，戰鬥版「馬克」機械人配備電子影像目錄，一旦烏克蘭軍隊以M1坦克和「豹2」坦克應戰，「馬克」將獲得相應的電子圖像，能夠以人工智能（AI）自動識別和攻擊這些坦克，還可以自動分配優先順序。
「馬克」還有一個能在1秒鐘內轉動540度（一圈半）以跟蹤目標的戰鬥模塊，該模塊可以配備各種反坦克導彈系統、榴彈發射器、重機槍和其他武器。「馬克」機械人由「人形機械人技術」公司與前景研究基金會共同開發，重約3噸。
德國政府周三宣布向基輔提供14輛「豹2」坦克，同日美國也宣布向烏克蘭供應31輛M1坦克。幾個有「豹2」戰車列裝的國家已紛紛響應，波蘭承諾援助手上的「豹2」，挪威也宣布提供2輛；西班牙表示將清查庫存確認能援助的數量，瑞典國防部長也表示不排除跟進。
蓋茨:中國崛起是全世界巨大勝利
微軟共同創辦人蓋茨(Bill Gates)認為，中國崛起是世界的巨大勝利。
蓋茨在澳洲接受採訪時表示，傾向於將中國崛起視為世界的巨大勝利。中國擁有近20%的全球人口，與其在全球經濟中的比重完全匹配。而像澳洲、美國等國家人均國內生產總值是中國人的5倍，在世界經濟中所佔的份額不成比例。
被問到對中國有多樂觀，蓋茨表示，美國目前對中國及其回應的思維方式是一種雙輸心態。如果詢問美國政客究竟希望中國經濟收縮20%，抑或增長20%，恐怕他們會回答寧願中國變得窮一些。他們不明白對於全球經濟、癌症藥物的發明、氣候變化的解決來說，全球要齊心合力。
美疾控:續關注輝瑞二價疫苗涉中風風險
美國疾控中心(CDC)表示，數據反映，當地仍須關注輝瑞-BioNTech二價新冠疫苗可能提高接種者中風的可能性，有審視相關數據的美國衞生專家稱，問題的嚴重性較1月初的數據為低。
美國衞生部官員本月初稱，關注到接種該款疫苗後的年逾65歲人士，發生中風的比率較正常水平高，但數據不代表疫苗存在臨床風險。
疾控中心周三向外部獨立專家委員會提供最新數據，反映情況仍屬於令人關注，但接種者中風比率有所降低。有專家認為，當局仍會監察數據，但未足以發布警告。
CURRENCY WARS: Russia Is Leading The East To A Gold-Backed Currency
Currency wars continue as Russia is leading the East to a gold-backed currency that will dethrone the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency.
Russia’s Intentions Are Clarifying
January 26 (King World News) – Alasdair Macleod, head of research at Goldmoney: We
have confirmation from the highest sources that Russia and the Shanghai
Cooperation Organisation (SCO) are considering using gold for pan-Asian
trade settlements, fully replacing dollars and euros.
In an article written for Vedomosti, a Moscow-based Russian newspaper published on 27 December, Sergey Glazyev, a prominent economic adviser to Vladimir Putin who is heading up the Eurasian Economic Union committee charged with devising a replacement for dollars in trade settlements sent a very clear signal to that effect. It appears he will drop earlier plans to design a new commodity-linked trade currency because it has been superseded.
Furthermore, increasing numbers of nations have joined or have applied to join the SCO as dialog members, including Saudi Arabia and other important Gulf Cooperation Organisation members. The economic benefits of discounted energy, China’s investment capital, and sound money are the ingredients for a new, Asia-wide industrial revolution, while the economies of the western alliance sink under rising prices, rising interest rates, collapsing financial markets, and collapsing currencies.
While it will mark the end of the road for the western alliance and its fiat currencies, Putin must be careful not to take the blame. Now that the alliance is racking up tanks and other equipment for the Ukrainians, they are actively promoting a new battle, with NATO getting almost directly involved. It is that action which will drive up commodity prices, undermine western financial markets, undermine government finances, and ultimately collapse their currencies.
Putin is likely to use NATO’s impetuous action in defence of Ukraine as cover for securing Russia’s future as an Asian superstate, which will be the west’s undoing.
Introduction
We
forget, perhaps, that from 1 March 1950 the Soviet rouble was on a gold
standard at 4 roubles 45 kopecks for 1 gram of pure gold until 1961,
when Khrushchev devalued it and refixed it to the dollar. Stalin had
been a signatory to the Bretton Woods agreement but refused to join it
and make the rouble subservient to the dollar as its intermediary for a
gold standard.
The Soviets’ rouble was eventually driven off its gold standard by disastrous economic policies. Faced with reforming the command economy system and accepting the economic failures of communism, in 1961 the currency had to give way. This is worth mentioning to remind us that the Russians are no strangers to a gold standard, were not brought up with Keynesian beliefs inculcated in their institutions and are probably viewing the west’s fiat currencies in that light. From unhappy experiences, they are also fully aware of the power of the dollar’s hegemony, and in the absence of military action that it is America’s weapon of choice…
Out of adversity, comes opportunity. By cutting Russia off from the west’s SWIFT system a year ago, the western alliance focused Russian minds. At a stroke, her fiat currency reserves were made worthless, and being beyond the western alliance’s control the real value of her gold reserves made supreme. It has ensured that for Russia and her allies’ gold was to be valued at a significant premium to the alliance’s fiat currencies. Furthermore, US insistence that gold no longer provides an anchor for currencies is now exposed to the Asian hegemons as little more than a self-serving sham.
It is in this light that we must view Russia’s struggle to conduct trade without using the dollar, the euro, and other western alliance currencies for settlement. Dollar credit created offshore by Chinese and other friendly banking systems without using the US correspondent banking system is a stopgap. But in practice is a limited solution, and liable to disruption by further American sanctions against participating banks. Furthermore, it does nothing towards a solution for doing away with western currencies for pan-Asian trade settlement entirely.
As a substantial net exporter, Russia is left with relying on China’s renminbi — not an ideal solution — and accepting soft Asian currencies: Indian rupees, Turkish lira, Iranian rials, and others. Undoubtedly, this spurred a committee under the aegis of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), incorporating Russia and the lesser states of Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Armenia to design a new trade settlement currency. In a preliminary announcement last year, the head of this committee, Sergey Glazyev, suggested it would be based on the currencies of the member states and a basket of commodities relevant to their trade. Furthermore, it was a currency system intended to be available for other nations to join.
Last June, in an article for Goldmoney I argued that Glazyev’s initial proposal was impractical, and he should be using a gold backed currency to achieve his objectives. Subsequently, there was some resonance with this view, because in July Glazyev proposed a new Moscow gold exchange, ostensibly to replace Russia’s loss of access to the London market for Russian mined gold and its refiners. His involvement in this project was not just coincidental. At that time, in an update to his initial proposal Glazyev pointed out that gold together with a basket of commodities could act as “collateral for a new settlement currency” (i.e., a modified EAEU plan), giving easier access for all members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation.
The ground was shifting. There was little doubt that Glazyev’s original plan was being abandoned, dropping national currencies out of the proposed construct, and enhancing the role of gold. But it was still the case that the inclusion of a basket of commodities would be bettered and simplified by using gold alone as “collateral” for the trade currency. Furthermore, the geopolitical imperative was evolving at pace.
Enter the Middle East…
In
recent months it has become clear that Saudi Arabia saw its future to
be more aligned with the China-Russia axis than the west, and
specifically members of the western alliance. In part, this was perhaps
the natural consequence of the American led “unfriendlies” — as Putin
called them — planning to do away with carbon fuels entirely in the next
decade or two. And while Asian nations, such as China and India were
paying lip service to climate change, it was clear they would continue
to use fossil fuels. It was time for the Saudis and other oil and gas
exporting members of the Gulf Cooperation Council to enter into
long-term supply agreements with China, India, and other members of the
wider SCO family. Accordingly, the Saudis announced their intention to
join BRICS, Qatar announced a 27-year natural gas supply agreement with
China, and President Xi was welcomed on a state visit to Saudi Arabia
when mutual trade agreements were signed.
Egypt and Qatar became dialog partners of the SCO in September, and Saudi Arabia was admitted in November. The SCO has also agreed to admit Bahrain, the Maldives, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Myanmar as dialog partners. Bearing in mind that the SCO is dominated by China and Russia, both of which want to replace the dollar, the inclusion of these members of the Gulf Cooperation Council who until now have accepted dollars exclusively for energy sales must be causing consternation in Washington. While some GCC members have been careful to not rattle Washington’s cage, the Saudis have been clear that they are now prepared to accept other currencies for oil, signalling a wider transfer from petrodollars to petroyuan…
What we cannot know is what, if any, assurances the Saudis sought and were given as to the relative soundness of the yuan and the other Asian currencies they would receive for oil relative to the dollar. The purchasing power of the dollar beginning to decline more rapidly is reflected in higher price inflation, and its long-term prospects as a pure fiat currency must have been part of the Saudi’s equation. But given that oil exports to the western alliance were set to decline and be replaced by Asian demand, a currency switch would be on the cards anyway.
Central to these considerations would have been Glazyev’s plans for a new commodity backed currency capable of being offered to the wider SCO membership, which the Saudis have now joined. And having dropped the national currencies element in the proposed new EAEU trade settlement currency, Glazyev would have been forced to accept that the only way such a currency would work practically would be to base it on gold as proxy for a basket of commodities. As all roads were said to lead to Rome, everything points to gold. The EAEU currency proposal was now dead before arrival.
In an article entitled “Golden rouble 3.0: How Russia can change foreign trade infrastructure” written for Vedomosti, a Moscow-based Russian business newspaper published on 27 December, Glazyev laid out his latest thoughts. Furthermore, it was co-authored by Dmitry Mityaev, who is Assistant Member of the Board for Integration and Macroeconomics of the Eurasian Economic Commission — so this article is not just Glazyev’s musings, and we can assume it carries official weight.
From this article, the EAEU currency commission now appears to have dropped the proposal for a new currency entirely, using gold instead as the principal means of settling trade imbalances. Presumably, the requirement to make payments in gold could be circumvented if one or more national currencies went onto a credible gold standard. Unless trade imbalances are substantially compensated for by investment flows, this may have to be the case. The implication is the rouble will readopt a gold standard due to a lack of outward investment relative to the trade surplus, reviving the gold backing (though not the relationship) that the Soviets operated between 1944 and 1961.
To reinforce the importance of a return to a gold standard, both Russia and the Saudis heading up OPEC+ will be aware of the true cost of the fiat petrodollar regime for their primary export product — crude oil.
In August 1971, when the Bretton Woods agreement was abandoned, crude oil was priced at $3.56 a barrel and the market price for gold was $42.85. Converting this into ounces of gold per barrel gives us a value of 0.0831 ounces. Today, the gold price of oil is 0.0417 ounces per barrel, roughly half. In other words, using gold Glazyev can demonstrate that the true cost to OPEC+ of dollarisation has been to halve the value of their export revenues since the Bretton Woods agreement was suspended. By accepting a new trade settlement medium tied to gold, this US enforced erosion of oil values will cease. And to compensate for the loss of oil’s value from the ending of Bretton Woods, the gold price in dollars would have to be double that of today at over $3,800…
The evidence mounts therefore, that gold provides a framework within which Glazyev intends to operate. That he must be thinking this way has become fundamental to his approach, confirmed by his many references to gold in his article for Vedomosti, to the rouble’s history tied to gold, and to the US’s debasement of petrodollars. In the UK at least, Russian media appears to be censored, so Glazyev’s Vedomosti article (referenced in endnote 1) may not be available to many readers in the west. Therefore, for ease of reference the salient points in the English translation of his detailed article are summarised as follows:
- In the nine months to September, Russia’s trade surplus with members of the EAEU, plus China, India, Iran, Turkey, The United Arab Emirates etc. was $198.4bn equivalent, against $123.1bn for the same period last year. In other words, the western alliance’s sanctions have failed to suppress Russia’s oil revenues, merely redirecting their sources.
- The trade surplus with SCO members has allowed Russian companies to pay off external debts, replacing them with borrowing in roubles. [Glazyev doesn’t make this point, but a return to the gold standard would reduce borrowing costs substantially.]
- Russia became the third largest country using renminbi for international settlements, accounting for up to 26% of foreign exchange transactions in the Russian Federation. The share of settlements in soft currencies is growing for SCO members, dialog partners and associates, replacing dollars, and is expected to increase further.
- Since these currencies are subject to exchange rate and possible sanctions risk, the best way to offset these risks is to buy non-sanctioned gold from China, the UAE, Turkey, possibly Iran, and other countries in exchange for local currencies.
- Gold purchased by the Russian Central Bank can be stored in central banks of friendly countries for liquidity purposes and the rest repatriated to Russia.
- Gold can be a unique tool to combat western sanctions if used to price all major international goods (oil, gas, food, fertilisers, metals, and solid minerals). This would be “an adequate response to the west’s price ceilings”. And “India and China can take the place of global commodity traders instead of Glencore or Trafigura”.
- Gold (along with silver) for millennia was the core of the global financial system, an honest measure of the value of paper money and assets… It was cancelled half a century ago, tying oil to the dollar. But the era of the petrodollar is ending. Russia, together with its eastern and southern partners has a unique chance to jump ship from a dollar-centred debt economy.
- By signing the Bretton Woods agreement but not ratifying it, for the USSR “Golden Rouble 2.0” played an important role in post-war Soviet industrialisation. Now the conditions for “Golden Rouble 3.0” have objectively developed.
- Sanctions against Russia have boomeranged against the west. It now faces geopolitical instability, rising prices for energy and other resources [i.e., yet more price inflation].
- In 2023, [there will be a shift from] risky investments in complex financial instruments to invest in traditional assets, primarily gold. Gold’s increasing prices towards Saxo Bank’s forecast of $3,000 per ounce will lead to a substantial increase in the values and quantities of gold reserves. Large gold reserves will allow Russia “to pursue a sovereign financial policy and minimise dependency on external lenders”. [Note that in addition to official reserves it is known that Russia has at least a further 10,000 tonnes — more than the officially declared total for the US Treasury.]
- Central banks are adding to their gold reserves. China has an export ban on all mined gold. According to the Shanghai Gold Exchange, customers have withdrawn 23,000 tonnes of gold. India is considered the world champion in gold accumulation…. Gold has been flowing from West to East… Is the West’s central bank gold safely earmarked, or is it all “de-done” through swaps and leasing? The west will never say, and Fort Knox’s audit will not either.
- Over the last 20 years, gold mining in Russia has almost doubled. Gold production may well grow from 1% of GDP to two or three per cent… Already, Russia’s annual gold production is set to rise from 300 tonnes to 500 tonnes… giving Russia a strong rouble, strong budget, and a strong economy. [Note that in this statement Glazyev reveals that he expects most of the increase of mine output is to be in its value measured in dollars.]
Glazyev
is all but saying for definite that Russia will enact Golden rouble
3.0. And we should be in no doubt that Russia is backing away from the
west’s fiat monetary system and sees far higher gold prices expressed in
its currencies. The only question is the speed with which it is moving
in this direction.
What
Glazyev did not mention in his Vedomosti article, other than his
reference to western central banks not necessarily having possession of
their gold reserves, would be the consequences for the dollar and other
western fiat currencies of gold becoming the trade settlement medium
throughout Asia, or of the rouble returning to a gold standard.
Inevitably, holders of dollars and financial assets, totalling some $30
trillion, would make comparative value judgements not just for the
dollar but also for their exposure to other fiat currencies. Not only
would this cause private sector actors engaged in cross-border trade to
re-evaluate their exposure to fiat currencies, but the whole system of
currency reserves held by central banks could come under threat…
The indications are that Putin supports Glazyev’s thesis. But he has a wider remit, including military strategy over Ukraine. NATO is committed to send Ukraine tanks to fight a new battle, expected to start shortly when the ground freezes. In the process, NATO is about to become more directly involved in the conflict. We should be in no doubt that after an apparent stalemate, in recent months this proxy conflict is about to become a more direct involvement between NATO and Russia.
Almost certainly, the forthcoming military escalation will destabilise financial markets in the western alliance. A renewed crisis of energy and commodity price increases seems certain, which will lead to fears in the western alliance’s financial markets of higher price inflation for longer, driving bond yields up and equities lower. Neo-Keynesian investors might expect the uncertainty arising from renewed military action to drive global liquidity into the dollar, which is their traditional safe haven rather than gold. But US-centric markets fail to appreciate that at $30 trillion the currency and financial assets are already over-owned by foreigners, while physical gold is not. And they fail to appreciate that Putin can exploit this weakness.
For that would be a good time for Putin to open a war on the financial front as a major blow to the dollar’s hegemony. Under cover of the battlefield, Russia could let markets drive up prices of nearly all her exported commodities, while continuing to give preferential terms to her economic allies in the SCO. It would then be seen as a market response to the western alliances’ political imperatives. But soaring energy and commodity prices will reflect a sharp decline in the purchasing power of the dollar and its fiat currency cohort of euros, yen, and sterling.
Yet again, in pursuing purely political objectives, the alliance would be seen to be entirely responsible for collateral financial damage.
The banking system is swimming naked on an ebb tide
Being
entirely fiat, the western alliance’s currencies are horribly
vulnerable to Sergei Glazyev’s plans for settling trade in gold, and its
implied extension into a standard for the rouble itself. If this
analysis is correct, and the evidence that it is so is mounting, then
China is capable of following with its renminbi. It has the required
characteristics for a gold standard to work as well — export surpluses,
high savings rate, low price inflation, and interest rates that truly
reflect price stability.
Make no mistake: as well as its official reserves, China has more gold than any other nation. And as Glazyev points out, at 23,000 tonnes its citizens are also very big holders as well as the state and should be supportive of a gold standard. By way of contrast, with an unknown portion of the western alliance’s gold reserves swapped and leased and its entrenched Keynesian denial of gold’s monetary role, its entire fiat currency system could rapidly become at risk of extinction…
At first sight, it may seem an extraordinary claim, but the last to see the danger to a currency are usually those wholly dependent upon it. Americans naturally believe that in difficult times, everyone turns to the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. And given the contemporary zeal with which everyone is beholden to the state and its paper, as an investment strategy this belief is usually correct in a self-fulfilling fashion. Only one in a million will say it is not prices that are rising, but understands that the currency is losing purchasing power. But there always comes a time when a sufficient challenge to a fiat currency is mounted by events that all myths are demolished.
It is not just a fiat currency which is threatened, but the institutional structures upon which it depends. In this regard, a Bank for International Settlements’ working paper entitled The Bank of Amsterdam and the limits of fiat money published only this month is timely[ii]. The paper’s Abstract sets out the current problem well:
“Central banks can operate with negative equity, and many have done so in history without undermining trust in fiat money. However, there are limits. How negative can central bank equity be before fiat money loses credibility? We address this question using a global games approach motivated by the fall of the Bank of Amsterdam (1609–1820). We solve for the unique break point, where negative equity and asset illiquidity renders fiat money worthless.”
The authors tell us that the Bank of Amsterdam was set up by the municipality of Amsterdam to deal with the large quantity of gold and silver coins of multiple jurisdictions, many either clipped or debased which circulated in this international trading centre. It was a bank of deposit. Customers would deposit coins and account balances were recorded in favour of the depositor. These deposit balances could be transferred to other account holders or withdrawn in specie for a small fee. It was a considerable improvement on settling transactions with coin alone.
In the words of the working paper, the bank become a proto-central bank, without initially undermining its credibility. In 1683 the bank matching deposits to coin, creating balance sheet credit. The description of the bank being a proto-central bank fits because the bank was effectively conducting quantitative easing, centred on buying in coin for fiat currency and credit, rather than for government debt as is the case today. And over time, the bank began to extend further credit, particularly to the Dutch East India Company. To cut a long story short, its balance sheet ended up with a growing and lethal combination of bad and illiquid debt as the fortunes of the Dutch East India Company declined, representing 71% of the bank’s assets while its stock of metal more than halved. As the BIS’s working paper pointed out:
“The Bank’s insolvency – and the inability of the city authorities to recapitalise it – are important elements in its downfall. The Bank’s income sources comprised mainly fees from the receipt system and interest margins on loans. However, while the loans to the VOC [Dutch East India Company] became non-performing, the bank had not been rebuilding capital to cover these losses, as profits were regularly distributed to the city. Moreover, it had neither the seigniorage income of modern central banks, nor an adequate fiscal backstop. The City of Amsterdam did make limited attempts to recapitalise the Bank, but the funds were quickly diverted back to city coffers… From the perspective of modern central banking theory, the City of Amsterdam’s fiscal capacity was insufficient to provide the sovereign backing of an institution that had become a proto-central bank.”
There is a high degree of resonance with the current situation, except instead of lending to a major corporate borrower, central banks are financing their governments, which are undoubtedly ensnared in debt traps being sprung by rising interest rates. The assumption that governments have the fiscal capacity to backstop their central banks in a way in which the City of Amsterdam was unable to do is also questionable…
The authors then proceed to mathematically model the conditions that led to the Bank of Amsterdam’s failure and the consequences for the currency. They claim that “there is a unique break point, defined as the state of the economy at which the agio [the relationship between the values of bank credit and coin] breaks below the target band and the value of bank money falls to zero”.
It is commonly said that modern central banks cannot go bust because they can “print” new currency. And it is assumed that respective governments with their fiscal capability can always bail them out as a last resort. Therefore, the relationship between a central bank’s balance sheet equity and its illiquid liabilities is commonly regarded as immaterial — it can and often does operate with negative equity. But, as the BIS working paper shows, there must be a break point, where these conditions are no longer enough to save a central bank and its credit in the form of its currency and deposit obligaions.
It is interesting that the BIS decided to publish this working paper only now. We can probably take it to imply that some analysts at the BIS are concerned that the current central banking cohort is in danger of the Bank of Amsterdam’s fate. This view has some support from its conclusion. It concludes with:
“Overall, our analysis demonstrates the value in reviewing historical precedents for understanding the monetary systems of today. In a context of high inflation, high global uncertainty, and competition between both sovereign currencies and now cryptocurrencies, it is particularly relevant to understand monetary competition and the factors that could lead to shifts between different monetary regimes.”
This is Zoltan Pozsar’s Bretton Woods III expressed in bank-speak. With the shift from fiat currencies to commodity-backed currencies now upon us, that time has probably arrived. While the Bank of Amsterdam took a considerable time to decline and fail, the failure of the western central banking cartel could be sudden. Rising interest rates lead to losses on central bank assets acquired through QE, and interest payments on commercial bank reserves increase as well. The Fed, European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, and others which have swollen their balance sheets through quantitative easing are not only in negative equity but are sinking even deeper into bankruptcy. The Bank of England has only escaped this fate so far through the prescience of a former Governor who persuaded the UK’s Treasury to shoulder bond losses: but it is still beholden to paying commercial bank interest on their reserves.
Bizarrely, we should not rule out central banks failing first, thereby bringing down commercial banks. Commercial banks are more operationally geared than they have probably ever been, and with an economic downturn increasingly certain, loan losses threaten to wipe out their shareholders’ equity. Their exposure to financial markets, which was predicated on low interest rates which are now rising, brings forward systemic risks, even without the Ukraine war entering another round. But we can see from the military build-up that energy and commodity prices are going to rise again and wholesale and consumer prices as well. Interest rates will follow, central bank negative equity will rise, and over-leveraged banks will almost certainly need to be rescued.
All the troubles of the Bank of Amsterdam are suddenly revisiting the western alliance’s central banks. Shortly, we won’t need to “solve for the unique break point where negative equity and asset illiquidity renders fiat money worthless”, as the authors of the BIS working paper put it…
Instead of a mathematical model proving something which is driven mainly by human perceptions, we can express the break point very simply. Central banks had a choice, which they no longer have. They could have chosen to protect their currencies by allowing markets to set interest rates and refusing to finance higher budget deficits. Instead, they are talking up only small interest rate increases, presumably hoping the price inflation problem will simply go away, while governments make little or no attempt to rein in their spending.
But they are in it too deep now to take that choice. With the exception of the ECB which has no specific government to turn to, they could have recapitalised themselves, and be in a position to guarantee the integrity of the entire commercial banking system. They still have that primary duty, but without the ability to do so. The BIS’s break point for their currencies has already passed.
Summary
We
rely on central banks to ensure the commercial banking network’s
integrity. At the least, the need for accelerated currency and credit
inflation to support a tottering financial system upon which the western
alliance depends can be the only solution — at the expense of their
currencies.
That the western alliance is sinking into a debt crisis of its own making is unarguable. Its geopolitical strategy run by yesterday’s hegemon has already backfired by driving up energy prices for the benefit of its enemies. The time has come for Russia to oversee the financial coup de grace. Oversee it, because Russia will use the cover of the western alliance’s aggression and the consequences for its markets and financial system to deliver the blow. Russia is thinking ahead, while the alliance is in gung-ho mode.
Just as the consequences of banning Russia from SWIFT did not appear to have been thought through in advance, the consequences of a new phase of the war over Ukraine are dismissed. In initially at least, in the west a move to gold by Russia will be seen as a defensive response to protect the rouble and the value of Russia’s pan-Asian exports, and a deliberate attack on western fiat currencies will not be suspected. The evidence will be seen in a gold price which rises beyond expectations.
Russia will not make formal announcements about gold standards, because there is no need. Nor will China: instead it might reveal an increase in gold reserves. And having dropped the EAEU trade settlement currency as the intended replacement for the dollar, the SCO will effectively adopt gold in its place.
Initially, a soaring gold price valued in dollars will not create undue alarm in the western establishments: after all, it has been demonetised. This will be followed by denials of its importance. But as Sergey Glazyev put it in his Vedomosti article, gold will be used to price all major international goods (oil, gas, food, fertilisers, metals, and solid minerals). That being so, these prices will be stable with low interest rates, while prices and interest rates will be soaring in dollars. And it will then become obvious to a wider public that it is not prices that are soaring, but dollars collapsing.
But as fiat dollars, euro, yen, and pounds lose purchasing power against not just gold but all commodities, comparisons are bound to be made between the relative success of the Russia-China axis embodied in the SCO, the EAEU, and BRICS. Driven by Chinese savers, capital investment, discounted energy, and sound money Asia will boom.
And there will be little that America and its NATO allies can do to stop it.
2023年1月26日 星期四
張德熙料金價今年高見2500美元
為應對高通脹，多國央行去年踏上加息之路，金銀業貿易場理事長張德熙表示，原預期去年國際金價挑戰2500元(美元‧下同)大關，卻因為加息步伐加速而令人「跌眼鏡」。
不過，張德熙認為，隨着今年加息步伐放慢，加上地緣政治因素影響，估計金價今年首兩季先挑戰2000元關口，之後有望升至2500元。
張德熙又稱，本港與內地通關前運輸黃金、加工方面有困難，無法不將成本轉嫁至消費者，預料通關後首飾成本下降。
2023年1月25日 星期三
日本暴雪 本港2旅行團50人滯留大阪機場
日本受冷空氣吹襲，多地落大雪。本港旅遊業界估計，目前最少有約4000名旅客在日本，旅行團行程暫時未受大影響。縱橫遊執行董事袁振寧表示，目前有約1200名團友正在日本，當中一半在北海道，受今次風雪影響，當地部分道路封閉，其中大阪機場連接橋便須封閉，兩個團約50名團友現正滯留大阪機場，他指涉事團友原定入住和歌山白濱溫泉，但已因應情況改為入主住大阪市區酒店，「希望唔使瞓巴士。」
登山纜車或動物園關閉
他表示，當地部分景點例如動物園或登山纜車因風雪關閉或停駛，對行程有輕微影響，旅行社會退還入場門券及略為改動行程配合，改為到室內旅遊點。
至於未來兩日出發的日本旅行團，袁指農曆年的高峰期已過，25日僅約有10個旅行團出發，除非航班取消，否則暫無計畫取消旅行團。
東瀛遊旅行社表示，約3000名團友行程如常，但因風雪關係行車速度減慢，回程航班未見有影響。
日本氣象廳預料，日本24日至26日受寒冷天氣及大雪影響。日本富士新聞網（FNN）24日稱，日本當日有逾120個飛機航班取消，日本航空公司（Japan Airlines）24日決定取消72個航班，包括往返大阪國際機場以及島根縣出雲市出雲機場的航班。全日空航空公司（ANA）24日取消56個航班，包括往返石川縣能登機場以及富山縣富山機場的航班。
根據JR西日本網站，在24日，北陸地區、關西地區、中國地區都有部份列車延誤或停駛。山陽新幹線有部分列車延誤；部分超特急列車延誤、更改行駛路線、或停駛。
英國家電網要求用戶降電力需求
英國國家電網公司(National Grid)網站顯示，將要求在周二下午4時30分至6時之間的1.5個小時內，削減約300兆瓦的電力需求，以應對電力供應緊張局面。
上述措施顯示歐洲的電力緊縮仍未結束，同時突顯英國發電緩衝能力不斷削弱的危險。
目前英國南部的寒冷天氣導致取暖需求大幅上升，而與此同時微弱的風力導致電力供應下降。英國電網當前的額外供應能力降至多年來最緊張的水平，並準備煤炭儲備等額外工具，以備在有需要時幫助增加供應。為維持電力供應而產生的額外成本將添加至消費者身上。
瑞士去年向中國出口524噸黃金
瑞士海關數據顯示，去年瑞士對中國、土耳其、新加坡和泰國等國家的黃金出口量激增至多年來的高位，因為低價格刺激亞洲和中東地區消費者的需求。
其中，瑞士去年向中國內地和香港出口524噸黃金，按當前價格計算價值約330億美元，高於2021年的354噸，為2018年以來最高。
利率上升導致歐洲和北美的許多金融投資者去年拋售黃金，從倉庫中釋放出大量的黃金，並推低了價格。這使黃金流向亞洲市場，亞洲市場更專注針對消費者的珠寶和小金條零售，消費者通常在金價下跌時購買更多黃金。
經濟不穩定也刺激對黃金的需求，許多人認為黃金是一種安全的投資，尤其是在物價飛漲的土耳其。
瑞士是世界上最大的黃金精煉和轉運中心，從世界各地的金礦和儲存中心進口黃金進行加工和再出口。
去年瑞士向新加坡出口69噸黃金，高於2021年的33噸，是2017年以來最高；向泰國出口92噸，高於2021年的56噸，是2013年以來最高。
瑞士去年向土耳其出口188噸黃金，遠高於2021年的11噸，是迄今為止有紀錄以來出口最多的一年；向沙地出口47噸，遠高於2021年的7噸，是2015年以來最多。
印度是繼中國之後最大的黃金市場，但瑞士去年向印度出口224噸黃金，低於2021年的507噸。
2023年1月24日 星期二
海南遊客創5年新高 春節旅遊復甦景區人氣旺
內地迎來放開防疫之後的首個春節，多地景區人頭湧湧，旅遊復甦回暖。海南進出島旅客、車輛遠超2019年，達到5年來最高。湖南鳳凰古城煙火氣回歸，四川官方稱旅遊景區人氣漸旺，呈現強勢回暖趨勢。除夕及前兩日，全國鐵路客流恢復至疫情前近九成，民航航班量接近疫情前。時隔3年，首架中國遊客包機初一抵印尼巴里島，受到印尼官方熱烈歡迎。
內地終於放開防疫，不再倡導就地過年，多地宣布感染高峰已過，不少被感染的民眾「陽康」。自元旦開始，內地旅遊熱潮持續上升，雲南、海南已經擠滿遊客。
民航航班量接近疫情前
海南省交通運輸廳披露，今年春運旅客出行客流明顯回升。截至21日（大年三十），進出島旅客累計144.4萬人次，比2022年增長50%，比2019年增長13.25%；進出島車輛38.69萬輛，比2022年增長42.56%，比2019年增長43.1%，達到了5年以來歷史最高峰。
四川省文化和旅遊廳稱，全省納入統計的743家A級旅遊景區，兩天（年三十、初一）累計接待遊客554萬多人次，實現門票收入3900多萬元。與2022年同口徑同比，分別累計增長17.9%和54.7%；與2019年同口徑同比，分別恢復至61%和69%。省文旅廳分析，逛景區、賞美景、品民俗成為不少市民和遊客歡度春節的首選，年初一的好天氣催生出遊熱。
湘西鳳凰古城因疫情沉寂三年重新回暖，商鋪吸引顧客的宣傳聲音再度響起，煙火氣回歸。上海黃浦區每天派超過3千名安保力量加強豫園、外灘等地客流疏導。
首架中國遊客包機抵印尼
官方宣布，本月19日至21日，全國鐵路客流恢復到2019年的85%；1月19日，國內航班量為1萬2309架次，恢復至2019年的97.6%。國家鐵路集團稱，初一初二約750萬人次，鐵路客流呈現回暖趨勢，總體上比較平穩。
出境遊也陸續恢復。大年初一上午10時40分，從深圳飛抵印尼峇里島伍拉萊國際機場的航班落地，印尼旅遊部、峇里島省政府官員齊聚機場，歡迎疫情以來首架來自中國國內的直航包機。
截至21日（大年三十），進出島旅客累計144.4萬人次，比2022年增長50%，比2019年增長13.25%。
中美兩國就紓緩窮國債務事宜互轟
美國財長耶倫(Janet Yellen)批評中國未有致力紓緩發展中國家債務，而中國官員反駁，指美國債務危機衝擊全球金融體系。
身在非洲國家贊比亞(Zambia)訪問的耶倫，接受路透訪問時指出，中國應在紓緩非洲國家債務上承擔更大責任。
中國駐贊比亞大使反駁，表示美國本身容許債台高築，其債務問題對全球金融體系帶來危機。
國際貨幣基金組織認為，中國已經成為發展中國家的最大債主，促請該國參與二十國集團牽頭的紓緩窮國債務計劃。
2023年1月23日 星期一
Greyerz – What The World Is Facing Is Nothing Less Than Catastrophic
Today the man who has become legendary for his predictions on QE and historic moves in currencies and metals told King World News that what the world is facing is nothing less than catastrophic.
“The risk of over-tightening by the European Central Bank is nothing less than catastrophic” — Prof Kenneth Rogoff
Catastrophic Risk
January 23 (King World News) – Egon von Greyerz, Managing Partner of Matterhorn Asset Management At Davos he also said:
“Italy is extremely vulnerable. But this could pop anywhere. Global debt has gone up massively since the pandemic: public debt, corporate debt, everything.”
Rogoff believes that it is a miracle that the world averted a financial crisis in 2022, but the odds of a major accident are shortening as the delayed effects of past tightening feed through.
As Rogoff said:
“We were very fortunate that we didn’t have a global systemic event in 2022, and we can count our blessings for that, but rates are still going higher and the risk keeps rising.”
But lurking in the murkiness is also the financial assets/liabilities including the shadow banking system which is almost $500 trillion or 46% of the total. This sector includes pension funds, hedge funds and other financial institutions which are largely unregulated.
The shadow banking system is not subject to the normal mark-to-market rules. Thus no one knows what the real position or losses are. This means that central banks are in the dark when it comes to evaluation of the real risks of the system.
Clearly, I am not the only one harping on about the catastrophic global debt/liability situation.
And no one knows the extent of total global derivatives. But if they have grown in line with debt and also with the shadow banking system, they could easily be in excess of $3 quadrillion.
Cultures don’t die overnight, but the US has been in decline since at least the Vietnam war in the 1960s. Interestingly, the US has not had a real Budget surplus since the early 1930s with a handful of years of exception.
But when you live on borrowed time and borrowed money, it becomes increasingly difficult to keep up appearances. In 1971, the pressures on the US economy and currency became too great. Thus Nixon closed the Gold Window with the dollar having lost over 98% in real terms since then. This is of course a total catastrophe and a guarantee that the remaining 2% fall to ZERO will come in the near term future, whether it takes 5 or 10 years for the dollar to reach oblivion. Remember that the final 2% is 100% from today!
The US, EU and Japan have now reached the stage when no one wants their debt. So sovereign debt of these nations is no longer a question of “passing the parcel” but keeping the parcel. When every third party holder of these debts is a seller, who will buy?…
These three countries will end up holding their own debt. Japan already holds over 50% of its debt. Before the Western Ponzi scheme comes to an end, these three nations will virtually hold 100% of their own debt. At that point, the bonds will be worthless and interest rates will have reached infinity. Not a pretty prospect!
The final phase of all empires always includes excessive deficits and debts, inflation, a collapsing currency, decadence and war. And the US qualifies perfectly in all those categories.
Ernest Hemingway stated it superbly:
The first panacea of a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the second is war.
Both bring temporary prosperity;
both bring a permanent ruin.
But both are the refuge of political
and economic opportunists.
The US has failed in every war since the Vietnam war, including the Yugoslav Wars, Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria and Libya. The results have been massive casualties and destruction of the country, often leading to anarchy and terrorism.
The Ukrainian war is not between Ukraine and Russia but between the US and Russia as I discussed in a previous article. The clear proof that there is no desire for peace from the US is that they are sending money and weapons to Ukraine in the $100s of billions and encouraging an increasingly suffering Europe to do the same. But they are not sending any peace negotiators to Russia in an attempt to end the war. This is very ominous.
The geopolitical situation is now on a knife edge with two major nuclear powers fighting about a relatively insignificant country. But this is how major wars normally start.
Let us hope that the current conflict does not lead to a major nuclear war since that would be the end of the world. Thus not worth to speculate about the outcome of such a scenario.
But the economic war and the collapse of the US dominated financial system is not just inevitable but also catastrophic for the Western economies.
A COMMODITY DOMINATED WORLD
As
the hegemony of the US is coming to an end, the dominance of the
decadent West is moving quickly to the East and South. Commodity based
countries like the enlarged BRICS will dominate for the next few decades
and probably longer. Oil and gas will form the base of this shift but
also many other commodities including gold which is now starting a new
era.
It is likely that 2023 will be the first year of many when we will see a strong rise in gold just like 2000 – 2011 which saw a 7.5X gain.
The end of the Western debt based cycle and the rise of the Eastern and Southern commodity cycle is well illustrated in the graph below.
The S&P Commodity Index relative to Stocks have recently made a 50 year low. Just to return to the mean, the index would need to go up 4X. But when long term cycles turn up from a historical low, they tend to trend higher and longer than anyone expects. So a move past the 1990 high of 9 is very likely. This would mean that commodities relative to stocks would move up more than 9X!
This 9X move would obviously involve a combination of falling stocks and rising commodity prices.
The expected move of the index confirms the shift from the West, based on an unsound and debt infested system, to the East & South, based on commodities.
Much of this move is based on the fossil fuels of the countries involved – to the chagrin of the climate movement crowd.
In today’s woke world, there is a tendency to believe that we can change all the laws of nature and science. This is the case both in the economy and climate. Bankers and governments are confident that they can create permanent prosperity by printing worthless pieces of paper believing that these represent real and lasting value and wealth.
Well surprise, surprise, these people will soon have the shock of a lifetime as all that printed money returns to its intrinsic value of ZERO.
A debt based economy eventually becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.
The higher the debt, the more the debt needs to grow in a never ending vicious circle. In the end the debt cycle becomes a perpetual motion Ponzi scheme.
The debt feeds on itself and the more that is issued, the more needs to be issued. As inflation rises, the escalating interest cost on the debt leads to more debt. Next is defaults, both private and foreign. Then the $2-3 quadrillion derivatives, a great part of which is in the shadow banking system, comes under pressure. This leads to massive debt creation by the Fed and other central banks, desperately trying to save the system.
This will eventually lead to what von Mises called: “…. a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.”
But
remember that we are here talking about the Western financial system.
The economic sun in the East will rise strongly and eventually be the
guiding light for the world economy.
The debt based US and West will to quote Hemingway decline “first gradually and then suddenly.” So due to the $2+ quadrillion size of the problem, the biggest part of the decline is unlikely to take more than 10 years and it could be a lot faster.
But the climate crowd will have to wait to 2050 to learn that through their actions they didn’t manage to limit the increase in temperature to 1.5 degrees. But with a lot of luck, climate cycles might be on their side and make the weather much colder.
Personally I believe that cycles determine the climate and not humans.
The climate cycle graph below covering 11,000 years shows that there has been numerous periods with warmer temperatures than currently. At the peak of the Roman Empire 2000 years ago, Rome had a tropical climate.
Fossil fuels produce 83% of the world’s energy today. According to forecasts this percentage is unlikely to come down significantly in the next 50 years.
Partly due to the increased cost of producing energy, fossil fuel production will fall by 26% by 2048. Increases in nuclear and renewables will not compensate for this decline.
If the world stops using fossil fuels, the world economy would totally collapse. Sadly the climate activist movement does not seem to worry about such disastrous consequences.
So it seems fairly clear that for a very long time, the world will be dependent on fossil fuels in order for the economy and population not to collapse.
For the above reasons, the commodity based countries will soon dominate the world and that for a very long time.
The constellations of commodity rich nations are forming rapidly.
Firstly we have the BRICS countries which currently consist of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. Many countries are in the process of joining BRICS including Saudi Arabia, Iran, Algeria, Argentina and Turkey.
It is the enlarged BRICS aim to bypass the dollar and create their own trading currency.
Many talk about the Petroyuan replacing the Petrodollar but what would everyone do with the Chinese currency since it isn’t freely convertible. Better then to have a currency linked to several commodity countries like Special Drawing Rights. This would create more stability and usability. The Credit Suisse analyst Zoltan Pozsar calls this Bretton Woods III.
There is also the EAEU or Eurasia Economic Union with Russia leading plus China, India, Iran, Turkey and UAE involved.
The SCO – the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation headquartered in China is also an important force. The SCO is a political, economic, international security and defence organisation. It includes many Eurasian nations like China, Russia, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan etc.
All the economies involved in this important development are commodity based. For example, commodities are 30% of Russian GDP. Their target is to expand gold mining to 3% of GDP and become the biggest gold producer in the world.
Russia has the world’s largest commodity reserves at $75 trillion and produces 11 million barrels of oil per day. Russian friendly provinces produce another 14M totalling 25M. China produces 5m barrels and the Middle East Oil going through the Strait of Hormuz is 22M barrels. So in a conflict with the US, Russia, China and Iran could decide to close the Strait of Hormuz which means they would have control over 50% of global oil supply. As Goldman Sachs has stated, oil would then be in the $1000s.
If we take Russia, Iran and Venezuela, they control 40% of the global oil supply.
The point I am making is that these various constellations of commodity countries will be the dominant economic power of the future as the US and Europe decline.
So for Russia, gold and oil are two strategic commodities which will play an important role not just for Russia but for all of these Eastern/Southern countries.
And no one should believe that the US and European sanctions are working. Russia and Iran are selling oil and gas to China at a discount. China then exports this, including refined products, to Europe at premium.
So the sanctions are a farce which totally kills the European economy.
Interestingly, the relationship between yellow gold and black gold has been stable for decades as this chart shows:
GOLD – THE VITAL WEALTH PRESERVATION ASSET FOR 2023 AND BEYOND
Gold
was the best performing asset class in 2022 but the investment world
didn’t notice since it is hanging on to the declining bubble assets of
stocks, bonds and property.
Let’s look at gold’s performance in various currencies in 2022:
The chart shows gold up 15% against Swedish Kroner on the right and for example up 11.6% in pounds, 6% in Euros and virtually unchanged in US$.
Bearing in mind that most asset markets, including bonds, have fallen by 20-30%, this is an outstanding performance by gold.
But no one must believe that gold is going up. All gold does it to reflect the total mismanagement of most economies. The chart above should be turned upside down to reflect the loss of purchasing power of all paper money.
As has been the case since 1971, this trend of falling currencies will continue but not at the same steady pace.
With the debt infested Western economies collapsing, their currencies will implode one after the other.
So please firstly acquire as much physical gold as you can afford and then some more.
And when you own your gold, don’t measure the value in collapsing currencies. Just measure your gold in ounces, kilos or grammes.
Also please don’t keep it in the country where you live, especially if that country has a tendency to grab assets. I don’t need to tell you which countries you can’t trust. The problem is there are not many you can trust.
Also if you store your gold with a gold custodian, ensure that only you can release it by having the Warehouse Receipt in your name. A custodian gold company disappeared last year with the major customer assets in spite of the gold being stored with a major vault company. The weakness was that the gold company could release the gold without the client’s approval. This is not an acceptable way to store your wealth preservation asset.
Finally remember that gold is not just your most important wealth preservation asset but can also be beautiful.
