Lisa's Investment Talk: 2008

2008年12月27日星期六

價愈高, 風險就愈大

投資乜都好, 一定要記住：價愈高, 風險就愈大！
所以想入市, 就一定要乘早！
散戶弊病, 是會觀望到高位才撲入去！

tw.stock.yahoo.com

（中央社台北2008年12月27日電）中國大陸仿冒造假事件頻傳，連國營企業生產的金幣也遭到仿冒，年關將近，中國金幣總公司展開「反假宣傳」，呼籲消費者慎防假金幣。

「中國證券報」報導，年關將近，各地頻傳詐騙案，連金幣也有人仿冒，中國金幣總公司特別在中國大陸各地開展「中國貴金屬紀念幣維權反假宣傳週」活動。

中國金幣總公司新聞發言人表示，這次以「維權反假」知識普及為核心內容，提請消費者、集藏愛好者提升對中國金幣品牌的認知，增加對中國貴金屬紀念幣基礎知識的瞭解，避免在集藏投資貴金屬紀念幣時上當受騙，切實維護消費者合法權益和利益。

報導表示，中國金幣總公司在發給各地中國金幣特許零售商、特約經銷商的通知中明確要求，各地特許零售商、經銷商必須在活動期間於店門口統一懸掛「中國貴金屬紀念幣維權反假宣傳週活動」的紅色條幅。同時在店內舉辦現場諮詢、宣傳資料發放、有獎問答等。

2008年12月26日星期五

來年會是炒金年

因為連 TVB 都在賣[中國金]廣告！

呢幾日金價都企得幾穩！

2008年12月24日星期三

開開心心過節日

天下烏鴉一樣黑

層深圳樓買佐十五年, 今日才聽到小業主同管理公司出佐問題, 立刻同老公過佐去了解情況; 原來本來的管理公司做得幾好, 但後來俾發展商換佐自己親人的管理公司來管理, 收管理費就收得比其他大廈高, 但管理就做得差, 所以有一班小業主出來抗議, 擺交管理費！現須授權俾一班小業主去辦理, 除了支持, 我地都幫吾到幾多！

之後同老公去行東門, 當然又去二元店掃貨！深圳貨品點都比廣州平！

2008年12月22日星期一

什麼是投資？

見到好多人還以為投資就是買股票和買基金, 如果你也是, 就是你的投資知識太不足了！
投資市場包捨：樓市, 股市, 匯市, 金油市, 還有農業產品市場！
做生意也是一種投資, 增加自己本身知識也是投資, 培養仔女變有用的人也是一種好重要的投資！
想做好投資, 一定要看遠些和還要有國際視野, 只是日日看住股市的升跌, 你的視野太窄了！

為何通常, 在傳謀出現的投資顧問好少提及, 一個投資組合可以包捨收租樓, 實金和外幣？
因為, 呢幾樣投資工具不附合他們的利益, 又點會叫你分薄你的資金？最好就是你可以聽他們的意見, 把錢俾佢地代你去投資, 就係買曬他們的基金！

所以想成為一個成功的投資者, 都係自己學好投資吧！

美元吸引力大不如前

蘋果日報

正所謂「蜀中無大將，廖化作先鋒」，美元自今年夏季開始稱王稱霸，兌歐元升逾兩成，兌英鎊大漲三成，兌新興市場貨幣更是如入無人之境。不過，在過去兩周，外匯市場又再變天，歐元兌美元由 1.24 如火箭般升上最高的 1.43 水平，至於美匯指數則由 87 的高位滑落。我察覺到外匯市場又再浮現出許多搵錢機會？
隨著美國聯邦儲備局大刀闊斧地減息，美元的吸引力大不如前，兌大部份貨幣趨於進一步下調，因此，現階段大家可考慮沽港元和美元。

油價可望守穩 40 美元

在未來 6 個月，歐元料有力上闖 1.45 至 1.55 美元區域。理由何在呢？這是因為美元自 7 月以來的升勢，很大程度上歸因於離岸銀行同業資金拆借市場異常緊張，全球爆發一波接一波的減債浪潮，美國機構投資者大舉把海外投資調回祖國，使到美元需求激增。
然而，形勢於 11 月底出現轉變。伯南克領導下的聯儲局連番減息，加上花旗集團獲政府撐腰，美元需求頓時大減。反映華爾街恐慌程度的芝加哥引伸波幅指數（ VIX ）由 85 點降至 54 點。
美國商業票據市場亦「久病初癒」，致令 3 個月期倫敦銀行同業拆息（ LIBOR ）從 10 月時的 4.8 厘，回落到目前的 1.92 厘，意味到早前「閂水喉」的銀行開始審慎地向市場「放水」。
此外，環球股市逐步穩定下來，美國金融股、中國水泥股和港股等風險指標，過去一個月均顯著上揚。
最重要的是，原油價格可望靠穩在每桶 40 美元以上，事關沙地阿拉伯應不會輕易讓此「黑色黃金」暴瀉至 25 美元，若發生這種情況，該國恐要背負 1000 億美元的財政赤字。另一邊廂，油價一旦挫見 20 至 25 美元，俄羅斯盧布勢首當其衝，屆時普京政權也會動搖。
石油輸出國組織減產，估計會令油價輕鬆上升 10 至 20 美元，在明年 1 月時反彈至 60 美元，並對美元構成壓力。油價與美元顯然背道而馳，油價 1 月從 100 美元高位急瀉期間，正正是美元最強盛的日子。

金價升有利南非蘭特

倘事態發展一如我所料，歐元應可升上 1.55 美元，到時英鎊亦應該升見 1.58 至 1.60 美元才對。在我的宏觀世界內，挪威克朗也會自然成為贏家。
挪威克朗早前疲不能興，導火線是油價暴挫、奧斯陸股市（由離岸勘探公司、運油船和航運公司的股票所主導）崩圍，以及投資者風險意識提高。但挪威克朗兌美元匯率現偏低了 7% ，而兌歐元更偏低達 9.2% 。一旦油市、風險意識和華爾街平靜下來，挪威的經常賬盈餘可望為克朗注入新動力，有機會上試 6.20 至 6.00 兌一美元。
今年來，南非蘭特表現低沉，在貨幣龍虎榜中排行倒數第二，僅勝過南韓圜。在南非總統選舉前夕，蘭特還企於 6.80 至 6.90 兌一美元；如今匯率已降至 10 兌一美元，累計降幅達 40% ，令人難以置信。
南非央行可輕鬆處理該國明年的對外融資需要，加上黃金和白金價格反彈，以及該國貨幣政策仍偏緊，蘭特明年料有力反彈至 8.60 兌一美元。面對美國利率跌至接近零水平，同時美元失寵，而且黃金供應量有限，背後靠金價和高息支持的蘭特，出現一次大反彈不足為奇。
Michael Preiss
（本欄隔周逢周一刊出）

好好運用去小銀行取高息

但高極都是在 2里之下！或轉買澳元有 3.x% ！

文匯報

東亞擠提催生「全保制」

9月24日，以資產值計排名全港第五大的東亞銀行(0023)被謠傳財政有問題，令總行及各銀行湧現罕見的提款人潮，提款人潮持續數日。

　為了穩定存戶信心，金管局於10月14日宣布兩項預防性措施，加強本港銀行體系的穩健，包括運用外匯基金為市民的存款提供無上限的擔保，以及成立備用銀行資本安排，有需要時為本港銀行提供額外資本。措施有效期直至2010年底，屆時政府會因應國際金融狀況決定是否需延續。

資金流入港匯轉強

　雖然很多亞洲國家均設有同類措施，但由於本港財政穩健，因此令全球資金大量湧入本港，令港元兌美元匯價持續高企，銀行結餘達1445.81億元創紀錄。

2008年12月20日星期六

惡有惡報

歐美投行本想掘個洞俾人踩, 而自己跌佐落去！
在 97 亞洲金融風暴佢地賺佐好多錢, 想 08 年再來照辦, 可惜人算不如天算！

2008年12月19日星期五

李居明牛年運程

2009 年牛年是差, 但會比鼠年好！ 2010 年會再變壞, 要 2011 年才會好轉！
呢幾年都不是股票年, 要等到 2012 年才是！
2009 年要多帶金或金屬在身邊, 少食魚生和小心雞蛋, 大閘蟹和貓！
2009 年初美元會回吐, 油價升不起, 金價會反撲！
任志剛會做到 2010 年 2 月！
低利息托住樓市, 但要過了牛年樓市才會好轉！
中國樓價會在 2010-2011 年大升, 2009 年應買樓！
人民幣停止升勢, 但不會大幅回落！
Obama 無運行, 2009 年會是他做總統最好的一年！

想睇其他人的預測, 以下網誌也同李居士預測的差不多：
hk.myblog.yahoo.com/dr168thegreat

2008年12月17日星期三

美元玩完？

2008年12月16日星期二

自己錢最好自己管理

文匯報

美國納斯達克交易所前主席馬多夫的500億美元（約3,875億港元）驚天金字塔式投資騙案，受害者愈揭愈多，規模愈來愈大。英國《金融時報》引述消息指，匯豐是詐騙案最大受害者之一。匯豐昨晚發表聲明，證實在案件中涉及金額約10億美元（約77.5億港元），反映馬多夫的客戶及網絡已延伸至最大規模和最知名的金融機構。

　據指，匯豐曾向有意投資馬多夫基金的機構投資者提供貸款，這些客戶大多是專門投資基金的對沖基金，涉及貸款金額約10億美元（約77.5億港元），而這些客戶估計向馬多夫基金投資了5億美元（約38.8億港元）。

　匯控昨晚發表聲明指，為澄清起見，確認曾向投資於馬多夫各項基金的少數機構客戶提供融資，根據目前所得資料，集團認為其在此類融資交易可能涉及的潛在風險約為10億美元（約77.5億港元）。

　匯控表示，在其正常的環球託管業務中，亦有客戶投資於馬多夫，但並不認為此等託管安排會成為集團的風險來源。

　根據這類交易的條款，若美國當局從馬多夫取回部分資金，匯豐會首先獲支付，客戶則蒙受第一損失。本報昨致電匯豐銀行，發言人表示對事件不作評論。

西英法瑞大行均墮陷阱

　除匯豐外，其他歐洲銀行亦受重創，西班牙最大銀行Santander銀行昨日證實，旗下投資基金 Optimal因投資馬多夫的基金而涉及23.3億歐元（約244.3億港元），當中20億歐元（約209億港元）屬於機構投資者和國際客戶，3.2億歐元（約33.5億港元）屬於西班牙國內客戶。Santander本身也投資了1,700萬歐元（約1.8億港元）於馬多夫的產品。

　全球最大公開交易對沖基金經理Man Group投資了3.6億美元（約27.9億港元）於兩個與馬多夫有關連的基金，佔該公司截至9月底管理資產值的0.5%。

蘇格蘭皇家拒透露損失

　法國巴黎銀行表示，沒直接投資在馬多夫的基金，但指其交易業務和借予對沖基金的抵押貸款則有牽涉到馬多夫基金的風險。蘇格蘭皇家銀行亦指，銀行有涉及馬多夫的基金，如果馬多夫的基金價值跌至零，該行可能損失約4億英鎊（約47.6億港元）。瑞士資產管理機構Union Bancaire Privee也被指約10億美元（約77.5億港元）資產有虧損風險。

　馬多夫設下俗稱「龐氏計劃」的金字塔式騙局，以後來投資者的本金，訛稱作為回報支付早前的投資者，但根據其他案例，早前獲利離場的投資者，或需將利潤歸還給其他受害者。　■英國《金融時報》/《華爾街日報》/綜合外電消息/彭博通訊社/美聯社

2008年12月15日星期一

美元甘快就企吾穩？

昨天由廣州返來, 乜都升了, 所以繼續觀望至一月！

廣州都全減價潮, 連新樓都半價！

2008年12月8日星期一

明天去廣州幾日

停睇市幾日！
Yahoo 個邊個 Blog 有問題, 寫吾到野, 如今晚都沒得就要等我返來才再出文！

羊群又是一窩蜂

大眾又一窩蜂沽人民幣轉持港元和美元; 短線的確睇來是美元好強帶動港元強, 但我睇法是, 美國蒸發了好多錢, 依家美政府發白條, 美國人可以用來繼續買你們的產品, 但有一日點都要還的！
試問, 如果你用白紙去印鈔票, 你就要坐牢, 但依家好多國家就甘印呀印呀, 全無經濟增長的支持！
所以我會繼續在低位增加實金和繼續持有人民幣和澳元！股票就只會在超低位買入, 因為如睇錯市升, 手上都已有一些股票頂住, 做人吾好一面倒！

投資一定要俾後路自己走！

「人仔」貶值港元熱北上資金急「回朝」

文匯報
■人民幣有可能繼續貶值，部分港人將存在深圳的人民幣轉換成港元，通過各種渠道撤回香港。本報記者李昌鴻攝

本報京滬深連線報道　為應對全球金融海嘯的衝擊，中國央行在過去半年多番減息，外匯市場上人民幣兌美元匯率自12月1-3日連續出現跌停。由於市場預期央行將持續減息，人民幣有可能繼續貶值，以往港人爭相在深圳存人民幣博升值和高息差的勢頭如今出現逆轉，港人紛紛將存在深圳的人民幣轉換成港元，通過各種渠道撤回香港，欲博港股抄底機會，港元再次變成搶手貨。而人民幣兌美元匯率急貶，亦導致上海美元黑市交易趨旺，北京市民則多持觀望態度。此外，不少深圳居民亦開始將人民幣換成美元和港元，欲借人民幣繼續貶值套利，令購匯炒港股和B股的個案亦大幅上升。

■本報記者：李昌鴻、軼瑋、凌馨

記者昨日來到緊鄰羅湖口岸的羅湖商業城一中資銀行，看到不少港人在排隊取人民幣，而且大多是較大金額的。記者在銀行營業大廳內觀察了大約半個小時，已有50至60個港人進來辦理業務，當中大部分是提取人民幣。該銀行有關人士向記者透露，目前央行為了刺激經濟，大幅將人民幣減息，尤其是10月下旬將利率突然大降1.08%，人民幣兌美元也出現持續貶值，並於12月初的連續3個交易日盤中均出現跌停，市場預期央行仍將持續減息，人民幣還會繼續貶值，港人於是掀起了拋售人民幣熱潮，將人民幣兌換成港元，他們通過各種方式將大量的資金撤回香港，這一勢頭正大幅上升，人數較上個月上升了一倍，與今年上半年相比出現鮮明的逆轉。

港人拋人民幣較上月升1倍

　今年上半年，大量的港人為了賭人民幣升值和央行持續加息帶來的港元和人民幣之間的高息差，紛紛將港元轉換成人民幣，存入深圳的各中外資銀行，並在4-5月掀起了高潮，後在外管局聲稱查境外人士內地存人民幣後才有所收斂，自央行9月今年首次減息後，這一勢頭才出現下滑。

　記者隨後來到羅湖商業城一中資銀行開設的外幣兌換點，發現相當數量的港人來此處將人民幣兌換成港元，100元人民幣可兌換111港元。兩位香港女士來到匯兌處，其中一位劉姓女士將8萬元人民幣換成港幣。劉女士稱，「現在人民幣正在貶值，利率也在下調，再存人民幣沒有意義，而且還面臨兌港元的匯率損失。」

　在香港工作的劉先生接受記者採訪時表示，由於人民幣出現貶值勢頭，並且利率日益走低，他認為再在深圳存款沒有必要，他將把其在深圳銀行的30多萬元人民幣存款兌換成港元轉回香港。

開戶買賣港股較上月增5成

　記者走訪了招行、農行、工行分行及深發展羅湖支行，儘管人民幣匯率在持續貶值，但許多銀行大堂經理和櫃台工作人員均表示，目前並未出現大量人員來換匯賭人民幣貶值帶來的收益，昨日僅有一位人士來換匯投資美元，但大部分是購匯向外匯款、旅遊和子女留學等。不過亦有工作人員表示，若未來人民幣貶值形成趨勢的話，將會有大量投資者換匯博投資收益。記者從招行獲悉，目前有大量人詢問人民幣出現貶值後如何換匯，這一比例較以往上升近1倍。

　據招行紅嶺支行的一名職員介紹，目前前來換匯炒B股和港股出現大幅上升，以前由於行情低迷，幾個月沒有一人來換匯，現在一天便有7-8人前來換匯。另據在招行給投資者開戶的招商證券客戶經理關先生表示，目前因港股處於歷史底部，有許多客戶來諮詢買賣港股，目前來開戶的較上月有近5成增長。記者從一香港券商深圳辦事處一負責人了解到，以前3-4月難見一客戶，現在一個月有7-8人來諮詢港股，並有4- 5人開設了港股賬戶。

　在深圳工作和居住的跨境家庭林先生表示，目前其在深圳的許多朋友打聽投資港股事宜，由於港股估值較A股低3、4成，有的公司市盈率只有2.5-4倍，「相當抵買」，他們想買一些優質港股，以博得抄底的機會。

2008年12月5日星期五

環球劈息越減越激

蘋果日報

【本報綜合報道】環球主要經濟體系相繼步入衰退，各地央行為提振經濟，已掀起新一輪劈息潮，而且有越減越狠的趨勢。昨日有五間央行宣佈減息，新西蘭狠減 1.5 厘，瑞典狂劈 1.75 厘，英國亦減 1 厘，越劈越激。然而在央行瘋狂減息行動下，各地息口已較年內高位大幅回落，部份更已到減無可減地步，相信環球大手劈息潮將暫告一段落。

金融海嘯來襲，各國經濟轉壞風險急劇上升，加上通脹在油價回落下大幅降溫，環球央行遂在無後顧之憂的情況下紛紛減息救經濟。今年來，英國減息手段最狠，共減 3.5 厘，美國及新西蘭亦累減 3.25 厘，連本身息口僅 0.5 厘的日本，亦敵不過環球減息潮，將利率調低 0.2 厘至 0.3 厘，顯示各地央行聯手救市的決心。

英息降 1 厘歐破格減 0.75 厘

星展銀行高級經濟師梁兆基稱，今次環球危機前所未見，各國央行減息快而狠是可理解。美銀經濟師茵克指，全球正處於非常時期，故不能用慣常手段去刺激經濟及信貸市場。
瑞典央行昨狂劈 1.75 厘，將利率降至 2 厘震驚全球，惟其果斷舉動亦贏得市場掌聲。英倫銀行繼上月減息 1.5 厘後，昨再減 1 厘，不足一個月減去 2.5 厘，充份展現其減息狠勁，令英息急速降至 2 厘，為 1939 年以來的 69 年最低。歐洲央行亦打破常規，破紀錄減 0.75 厘，息口跌至 2.5 厘。市場認為，英國及歐洲央行減息有助提振經濟，英鎊及歐元在減息後造好，英鎊升至 1.4669 美元，歐元亦漲見 1.27 美元。
亞洲方面，新西蘭儲備銀行昨狠減息 1.5 厘，將利率降至 5 厘的 5 年低位。通脹高企的印尼亦意外減息 0.25 厘，將官方利率降至 9.25 厘。各地央行爭先恐後減息，現除日本外，美國、瑞士、瑞典及英國息口均降至 2 厘或以下。
環球利率大跌，意味央行不能再依賴大手減息來振興經濟，澳紐央行已率先表明，日後減息幅度將明顯收窄，故各國必須推出更多救市措施，才能避免重蹈日本 90 年代長期通縮的覆轍。

澳紐：未來減幅將收窄

摩根大通預計，全球就業及商業開支等經濟數據明顯趨疲，預計已發展國家今季經濟收縮程度將是二次大戰以來最嚴重。曾經歷零息時代的日本為免零息再現，早前以放寬企業借貸抵押品的標準代替繼續減息，冀能助經濟起死回生。
里士滿聯邦儲備銀行行長拉克表示，當再度減息已不可行時，央行便須考慮推出其他刺激經濟方案。恒生銀行（ 011 ）高級經濟師范婉兒亦認為，環球政府已意識到不能單靠減息挽救經濟，須有更大力度的財政方案配合才能收效。

各地央行今年利率變化

日本央行
最新利率： 0.3 厘　今年高位： 0.5 厘　期內減幅： 0.2 厘

瑞士央行
最新利率： 1 厘　今年高位： 2.75 厘　期內減幅： 1.75 厘

美國央行
最新利率： 1 厘　今年高位： 4.25 厘　期內減幅： 3.25 厘

瑞典央行
最新利率： 2 厘　今年高位： 4.75 厘　期內減幅： 2.75 厘

英國央行
最新利率： 2 厘　今年高位： 5.5 厘　期內減幅： 3.5 厘

加拿大央行
最新利率： 2.25 厘　今年高位： 4.25 厘　期內減幅： 2 厘

歐元區央行
最新利率： 2.5 厘　今年高位： 4.25 厘　期內減幅： 1.75 厘

澳洲央行
最新利率： 4.25 厘　今年高位： 7.25 厘　期內減幅： 3 厘

新西蘭央行
最新利率： 5 厘　今年高位： 8.25 厘　期內減幅： 3.25 厘

中國央行
最新利率： 5.58 厘　今年高位： 7.47 厘　期內減幅： 1.89 厘

印尼央行
最新利率： 9.25 厘　今年高位： 9.5 厘　期內減幅： 0.25 厘

瑞典　抗悠長苦澀寒冬

由於全球信貸癱瘓打擊消費，並削弱對瑞典貨品需求，瑞典這個北歐最大經濟體系於上季開始步向衰退。今年 10 月，當地通脹由 4.4% 滑落至 4% ，此前，當局已預警未來經濟將持續惡化。瑞典財長柏格（ Anders Borg ）上周更說：「我們要面對一個真正寒冷的冬天，而且是悠長、冰冷及苦澀的冬天。」瑞典央行下調經濟與通脹預測，料明年經濟萎縮 0.5% ，遠遜 10 月時預測的增長 0.1% ， 2010 年增長預測則由 2.5% 降至 2.2% 。

印尼　顯現防衰退決心

印尼央行自 5 月初開始六度加息後，昨終於跟隨大隊將息口調低，希望藉此刺激消費開支，防範明年經濟大倒退。印尼早前已將明年度經濟增長預測，調低至 4.5% 的 7 年低位。渣打經濟師 Alexander Sugandi 指出，高息對保護印尼盾不再奏效，減息給予市場的訊息，是央行會預先防止經濟大幅放緩。印尼央行亦預計，未來數月通脹壓力將緩解，鋪路進一步減息，當地明年通脹則預計介乎 6.5% 與 7.5% 。

新西蘭　盼走出最壞時代

新西蘭減息 1.5 厘至 5 厘，旨在拯救國家走出 18 年以來最壞的經濟衰退。央行行長 Alan Bollard 表示，未來或再減息，但減幅將較輕微。新西蘭目前處於嚴峻環境，消費市道疲弱，企業為保盈利縮減人手，致失業率攀升。央行預期，明年第三季通脹將降至 1.5% 。摩根大通經濟師 Helen Kevans 表示，無論內需抑或環球層面，新西蘭經濟衰退很深，央行仍需下更多工夫。經濟師預期，明年首季新西蘭息率將降至 4.5 厘。

英國　零息年代漸逼近

英國銀行業縮減信貸規模，打擊英國經濟逐步陷入衰退，經濟合作與發展組織上月亦預計，明年英國經濟或衰退 1.1% ，是 1991 年以來最壞。上個月，英國服務業、製造業和建築業大縮水，創有史以來最低水平；房屋價格跌 2.6% ，是近 16 年來最大跌幅。英倫銀行行長金默文上月首次提及利率降至零的可能性，指目前所面臨最大挑戰是使金融機構恢復信貸活動，暗示如有必要，息率有機會降至零水平。

歐元區　減幅過大釀危機

歐洲央行大減息對抗日益嚴峻的經濟危機，是歐元區成立以來最大規模減息行動。目前整個歐洲經濟都處於十分危急的境地，製造及服務業上月萎縮速度創歷史新高，消費者信心指數降至近 15 年新低。國際貨幣基金組織預期，明年歐元區經濟將出現 0.5% 衰退。不過，歐洲央行執行委員會成員 Lorenzo Bini Smaghi 曾表示，急降利率很可能使經濟進一步惡化，另一成員 Ewald Nowotny 則稱，應為未來貨幣政策預留減息空間。

2008年12月4日星期四

上落市

還是觀望為妙！
發覺新西蘭元走勢比澳元愈來愈落後！

2008年12月2日星期二

貶值恐慌人民幣狂瀉

如果早在一人民幣=0.95港元時買入, 就吾曬蝕匯價的, 只是賺少些吧啦！所以投資一定要早過大眾入市！為了分散風險, 手上點都要持有一些人民幣！

蘋果日報

【本報訊】人民銀行行長周小川上月 11 日發表「不排除通過人民幣貶值來刺激出口」的言論，人民幣匯率只有輕微波動，仍然維持窄幅橫行。不過，自上周三起人民幣連跌 4 天，昨日更突然激起巨大震盪，每美元兌人民幣昨低見 6.8848 ，單日跌 0.72% 。匯商指，不排除是人行「試水溫」，測試市場對率貶值的反應。銀行界及分析師認為，人民幣有溫和貶值空間，惟幅度有限，進一步走勢視乎刺激內需政策能否成功「保八」。　記者：劉美儀、李嘉麟

昨日 1 美元兌人民幣價以全日最低位 6.8848 收市，較上周五收市價 6.8349 重挫 0.72% ，是人民幣自 05 年 7 月改以來最大單日跌幅。以昨日人民幣收盤價對比開盤價 6.8505 計，價即日跌幅約 0.498% ，觸及 07 年 5 月起人民幣率即日波幅，從上下各 0.3% ，擴大至 0.5% 的下浮區間。
不過，人民幣兌歐元中間價則不跌反升，由上周五 8.8119 人民幣兌 1 歐元，升值至 8.6720 。
人行相關人士接受《路透社》訪問時表示，央行會保持人民幣匯率基本穩定的政策，昨日人民幣匯率跌幅沒有超出波幅範圍，不需作出評論。

遠期人民幣平倉盤湧現

周小川上月中出席國際清算行會議時指，不排除通過人民幣貶值來刺激出口的可能。
匯商指，按以往人民幣連破重要關口的升值經驗計，翌日價很大機會逆向發展，故今日人民幣兌美元現貨價或會回升。作為市場座標的人民幣中間價，昨甫開盤即較上個交易日「插水」 156 點子是近九個月以來最大幅度，加上內地公佈的採購經理指數疲弱，現貨市場對匯率貶值呈恐慌反應，亦帶動持有 1 個月至 1 年期人民幣不交收遠期合約長倉，紛紛盤平倉。
東亞銀行（ 023 ）外市場首席交易經理張恩認為，人民幣貶值有助刺激出口，若當局推動內需成效不顯著，匯率將有較大貶值空間以確定「保八」成功。
昨日人民幣錄得改以來最大跌幅，不排除是人行試探市場前奏。 1 個月人民幣不交收遠期價已跌至 6.94 ，他預期一、兩個月人民幣現貨價將跌回 7 算，但基於外圍經濟及政策考慮，相信人民幣不會在未來 12 個月內，大幅貶值 4 、 5% ，或一次過重手貶值。
匯豐銀行執行董事王冬勝認為，市場憧憬內地繼續減息，加上全球經濟萎縮，亞洲貨幣已下跌不菲，故認為人民幣匯率橫行或稍為偏軟，是符合當前經濟形勢發展，亦有利內地企業出口。

陶冬料明年見 7 算

德銀大中華區首席經濟師馬駿指，內地經濟變化大，貨幣政策需更靈活，短期人民幣貶值 1 至 2% 亦不為奇。瑞信亞洲區首席經濟師陶冬亦說，中國經濟有進一步放緩風險，維持人民幣兌每美元年底見 6.9 ，明年料重返 7 算。
渣打銀行經濟師劉健恆稱，不排除內地在貨幣政策上已出現轉變，但不能憑單日跌幅斷定人民幣走向貶值之路，該行仍維持明年底前人民幣價橫行的看法。

2008年12月1日星期一

今晚金油大跌

又可以買平金了！

恆指下一波或見9000

文匯報

去年10月因準確預言港股崩盤而人氣急升的交通銀行首席策略師及經濟分析師羅家聰（圖）指出，要為港股「尋底」相信只有先知才能做到，但也可從四方面的歷史數據找些眉目。當中包括恆指市盈率、支持位、熊市底部，以及過去大跌市的底部。若歸納多個數據，恆指10 月28日一度跌至10600點低位後反彈上11000點，應是目前的底部，但不代表是這波跌浪的底部。隨著美國經濟逐步陷入衰退絕境，本港經濟及失業率每況愈下時，股市會持續受牽連，未來數年將再試不同的底部，肯定比11000點更低。

港股PE現時約8倍

　恆指尋底的四個方法中，第一是以過往最壞情況下的恆指市盈率作基準。羅家聰指，港股在最壞情況曾經在1982年12月出現，當時恆指市盈率僅得5.57倍，與目前的恆指仍有一定距離。目前恆指的PE大約在8倍左右，跟最壞的情況尚有距離。

　第二則是以恆指支持位計，羅氏指，恆指跌至11000點已跌破多個支持位，對上一個支持位是 1989年20年前的支持位是11000點，所以估計恆指下試9000點，而再對上個支持位則是1974年，即是34年前的支持位2200點，所以港股下一波可能跌至9000點，甚至最壞情況2200點。

「非典」時市底8300

　第三是對上一次熊市底部，羅家聰指出，「非典」時期，恆指的底部是8300點，這個也可能是港股新一個支持位。

　第四則以過往多次大跌市的跌幅作基準，羅家聰提出，A股大跌市時曾經跌9成，73年恆指大跌市時跌幅都是9成，道指於1929年大跌市的跌幅同樣是9成，所以港股是次海嘯也有機會由高位即逾31000點下跌9成。

彩票騙案

文匯報
貪得個貧！

【本報訊】(記者邱益忠)經濟轉差，「搵快錢」或利用市民貪心心理行騙的個案有上升趨勢。警方商業罪案調查科今年首11個月接獲653宗彩票騙案，涉及款項高達3,800 萬元，比去年全年的數字上升逾84%，事主最多損失600萬元。商罪科表示，犯案手法多是利用電郵，指事主中了外國或本地的巨額彩票，但需要事主支付博彩稅等雜費，方能將獎金轉帳。9成受害人雖然未曾購過有關彩票，但也信以為「天降巨獎」，繼而不斷匯款。警方提醒，市民千萬不要輕易相信中獎的電郵、信件或電話，以免蒙受損失。

　商罪科於今年截至11月14日，一共接獲1,079宗詐騙案件，當中653宗為彩票騙案，比去年全年錄得的354 宗上升逾84%。案中涉及690名受害人，當中除28名年齡介乎35歲至50歲的香港人外，其餘全是居住在澳洲、新加坡、台灣的華人。商罪科至今已成功確定8個犯罪集團，並拘捕28人，當中包括19名台灣人及香港人，而集團作案涉及款項達3,800萬元。

受害者最多被騙600萬

　香港警務處商罪科偵緝高級督察鄭家偉(見圖)表示，8成案件當中犯人都是利用電郵、通訊工具如 Skype或MSN接觸受害人，訛稱自己為香港賽馬會或外國機構如西班牙彩票的職員，指受害人在彩票活動或博彩遊戲中贏得一筆過千萬元，甚至過億元的巨額獎金，要求受害人留下個人資料及聯絡方法。「當受害人主動回覆電郵時，犯人會要求受害人存5,000元到犯人的戶口，作為繳交博彩稅。若受害人就範，又再要求繳交行政費用或捐錢，當受害人發覺中計時已經太遲。」曾經有受害人繳交7、8次匯款方發現自己中計，最高被騙款額涉及600萬元。

　貪心是不分年齡、性別和地域，彩票騙案的受害人階層廣泛，且案中9成受害人都沒有購買犯人所說的彩票或參與有關的博彩遊戲。鄭家偉指，經濟近來轉差，彩票騙案自然增加，「受害人看到中獎金額這麼大，便會很容易相信犯人的說話，其實仔細想一想，沒有買彩票，又哪會中獎？所以市民千萬不要貪心」。

How the Financial Crisis Was Built Into the System

富爸爸：
finance.yahoo.com

Posted on Monday, November 24, 2008, 12:00AM

How did we get into the current financial mess? Great question.

Turmoil in the Making

In 1910, seven men held a secret meeting on Jekyll Island off the coast of Georgia. It's estimated that those seven men represented one-sixth of the world's wealth. Six were Americans representing J.P. Morgan, John D. Rockefeller, and the U.S. government. One was a European representing the Rothschilds and Warburgs.

In 1913, the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank was created as a direct result of that secret meeting. Interestingly, the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank isn't federal, there are no reserves, and it's not a bank. Those seven men, some American and some European, created this new entity, commonly referred to as the Fed, to take control of the banking system and the money supply of the United States.

In 1944, a meeting in Bretton Woods, N.H., led to the creation of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. While the stated purposes for the two new organizations initially sounded admirable, the IMF and the World Bank were created to do to the world what the Federal Reserve Bank does to the United States.

In 1971, President Richard Nixon signed an executive order declaring that the United States no longer had to redeem its paper dollars for gold. With that, the first phase of the takeover of the world banking system and money supply was complete.

In 2008, the world is in economic turmoil. The rich are getting richer, but most people are becoming poorer. Much of this turmoil is directly related to those meetings that took place decades ago. In other words, much of this turmoil is by design.

Power and Domination

Some people say these events are part of a grand conspiracy, and that might well be. Some people say they represent the struggle between capitalists, communists and socialists, and that might be, too.

I personally don't participate in the debate over a possible global conspiracy; it's a waste of time. To me, the wider struggle is for power and domination. And while this struggle has done a lot of good — and a lot of bad — I just want to know how to avoid becoming its victim. I see no reason to be a mouse trying to stop a herd of elephants from fighting.

Currently, many people are suffering due to high oil price, the slowdown in the economy, loss of jobs, declines in home values, increased bankruptcies and businesses closings, savings being wiped out, the plummeting stock market, and rising inflation. These realities are all direct results of this financial power struggle, and millions of people are its victims today.

An Extreme Example

I was in South Africa in July of this year. During my television and radio interviews there, I was often asked my opinion on the world economy. Speaking bluntly, I said that South Africans had a better opportunity of comprehending the global turmoil because they're neighbors to Zimbabwe, a country run by Robert Mugabe.

In my interviews, I said, "What Mugabe has done to Zimbabwe, the Federal Reserve Bank and the IMF are doing to the world." Obviously, my statements disturbed many of the journalists. I did my best to comfort them and assure them I was not an anarchist. I explained, as best I could, that Zimbabwe was an extreme example of an out of control power struggle.

After they were assured I was only using Zimbabwe to illustrate my point, I said, "If you want to understand the world economy, take a refugee from Zimbabwe to lunch." I advised them to ask the refugee these questions:

1. How fast did the economy turn?

2. When did you know that you were in financial trouble?

3. When did you finally decide to leave Zimbabwe?

4. If you could do things differently, what would you have done?

Three Approaches to a Crumbling Economy

I spoke to three young couples from Zimbabwe while I was in South Africa. Two couples were recent refugees now living in South Africa, and one couple still lives in Zimbabwe. All three couples had interesting stories to tell.

One couple said that they would have quit their jobs earlier. Instead, they hung on, hoping the economy would change. Then, virtually overnight, the value of the Zimbabwean dollar dropped and inflation went through the roof. Even though they received pay raises, the couple couldn't survive and soon depleted their savings. They left Zimbabwe by car with almost nothing. If they could've done something differently, they told me, they would have started a business in Zimbabwe and began exporting products to South Africa, so that they would have had South African currency and a bank account there before they fled.

The second couple that fled the country said they saved money and paid off their house and other debts even as the Zimbabwean dollar fell in value. Looking back, they say they would've saved nothing and gotten deeply in debt in Zimbabwe, allowing them to pay off their debt with the cheaper dollars. Instead, they fled after they lost their jobs, leaving behind their house and owning $200,000 in nearly worthless Zimbabwean dollars.

The third couple still lives in Zimbabwe. When they saw the writing on the wall, they set up a business in South Africa and, with the profits, began acquiring tangible assets in Zimbabwe. Often, they'll buy an asset in Zimbabwe and pay the seller in South African currency. They believe that once Mugabe is gone and order is restored, they'll be in a strong financial position.

Many Problems, Few Solutions

There are three major problems with the events of 1913, 1944, and 1971. The first is that the Fed, the World Bank, and the IMF are allowed to create money out of nothing. This is the primary cause of global inflation. Global inflation devalues our work and our savings by raising the prices of necessities.

For example, when gas prices soared, many people said that the price of oil was going up. In reality, the main cause of the high price of oil is the decreasing value of the dollar. The Fed, the World Bank, and the IMF, like Zimbabwe, are mass-producing funny money, thereby increasing prices and devaluing our quality of life.

The second problem is that our economic crises are getting bigger. In the 1970s, the Fed faced and solved million-dollar crises. In the 1980s, it was billion-dollar crises. Today, we have trillion-dollar crises. Unfortunately, these bigger crises mean more funny money entering the system.

Apocalypse Soon

The third problem is that in 1913, the Fed only protected the large commercial banks such as Bank of America. After 1944, the Fed, the World Bank, and the IMF began bailing out Third World nations such as Tanzania and Mexico. Then, in 2008, the Fed began bailing out investment banks such as Bear Sterns, and its role in the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac debacle is well known. By 2020, the biggest of bailout of all will probably occur: Social Security and Medicare, which will cost at least a $100 trillion.

Even if we find more oil and produce more food, prices will continue to rise because the value of the dollar will continue to decline. The dollar has lost over 90 percent of its value since the Fed was created. The U.S. dollar will continue to decline because of those seven men on Jekyll Island in 1910.

Granted, the funny-money system has done a lot of good — it has improved the world and made a lot of people rich. But it's also done a lot of bad. I believe somewhere between today and 2020, the system will break. We're on the eve of financial destruction, and that's why it's in gold I trust. I'd rather be a victor than a victim.

2008年11月30日星期日

恒指 15000 阻力大

買金飾一定要去有誠信的商店

雖然這文章是說印度, 但在世上任何國家都一樣可以發生！

www.thenews.com.pk

Sunday, November 30, 2008
By Faryal Najeeb

KARACHI: Manipulation and cheating is on the rise in gold markets as customers return to jewellery shops with the onset of wedding season and an added incentive of softening gold prices.

Market sources informed that the dealers mix other elements in pure gold to gain more weight. The mixing in the ramshackle workshops is done with such expertise that shine, lustre and weight remains similar to the precious metal and yet the value is far less than quoted. A gold chain or bangle for instance sold as 22 carat gold may turn out to be only of 18 carat gold and rest being impurities.

A dealer who did not want to be named said that he has been in the business for almost 30 years and while cheating customers of their money is not an unusual practice amongst gold dealers, the recent financial crises and inflation have increased the occurrence of this illegal practice seems to be on the rise.

The dealer said that with the absence of hallmarking in local gold jewelleries, the illegal practice is easy to follow and in fact is one of the major reasons of trade malpractice.

Hallmarking is a mark showing that something is of high quality whereas the act of hallmarking is where precious metals such as gold, silver and platinum are stamped/ branded with the weight and purity (the carat) hence signifying the authenticity of the precious metals.

President All-Pakistan Supreme Council of Jewellers Association, Alhaj Haroon Rashid Chand also referred to the lack of hallmarking in the country and said that apart from local customers even international trade was being influenced by the lack of the practice. He said that local gold was often wrongly evaluated which led to either a loss for Pakistan or mistrust amongst foreign counterparts.

Citing an example, he shared that Americans wear 9k, 12k and 18k gold jewelleries more popularly and there had been a case where 9k gold items were labelled as 12k and 12k as 18k gold items. Needless to say, the incident had brought much shame to our trade� he added.

All over the world hallmarking is carried out and verified by authentic associations and only then the final product is sent out into the market which helps to reduce fraud cases but in our country we do not even have an official representative organisation�, he informed.

Sources within the gold markets informed The News that malpractice is on the rise amongst gold smiths and dealers as they dupe customers by charging them for 22k (carats) gold jewelleries while providing them accessories of a much lower value as it is often mixed with copper and silver metals.

The dealer said that it was the first time in several years that the market had seen such an appalling decline in customers and traders in his business were getting desperate to prevent their businesses from failure.

He said that his family had been goldsmiths for centuries and his grandfather had brought the trade to Pakistan from India following the partition. He shared that even when learning the trade as a child from his masters, he had often witnessed malpractice in form of mixing copper with gold to give it the full look� that a 22k gold item has.

I am ashamed to say that even my forefathers have played their game to survive in the market, but they never cheated loyal customers� he was quick to add. He explained that cheating in the value of gold jewelleries is common when customers order designs and collect it at a later date.

During the melting and remaking process that other elements are mixed in. At other times the weight of the final accessory is also often tampered with as very few customers recheck on the weight of the jewelleries during the time of collection� he expressed.

Haroon Rashid, on the other hand, explained the more technical aspects of jewellery making and how gold are mixed with other alloys which give them pure-gold look and weight.

He explained that to provide hardness and shine to gold of a dull yellow colour similar to 22k gold items, one masha (0.98g) gold is mixed with 6 rati (0.73g) copper and 2 rati (0.24g) silver. For 18k gold which is of a brighter yellow colour, one masha (0.98g) gold is mixed with 6 rati (0.73g) silver and 2 rati (0.24g) copper.

Chand informed that this was the basic fundamental calculation for mixing gold to form various forms of carats and parallel ratios were used for greater amounts of the precious metal.

He further elaborated that it was during this mixing process when higher levels of copper and lower levels of gold were substituted to form a manipulated final product. Chand articulated that nowadays with gold becoming increasingly expensive, people preferred 21k gold sets which encouraged illegal mixtures as it helped to bring the prices of the accessories further down.

The expert went on to inform that earlier customers used to buy jewelleries as heavy as 10 tolas but now following the steep hike in gold value within a year, the trend has shifted towards lighter weight jewelleries commonly ranging between 3-5 tolas only.

He said that slowly the trust that customers had in their jewellers had faded mainly due to those dealers in the industry who seek maximised profits and care little about customer-dealer relationship. The expert advised public to trust only old gold smiths who have a recognised name or ones that have been in the family for years. He said that their charges may be high but their work is authentic.

Any jeweller offering lower charges especially for you� is definitely cheating you� he continued. To matter how much he tries to convince you by saying that the lower charges are to make you a permanent customer, its manipulation as a businessman who never run into a loss himself� he added.

2008年11月28日星期五

港府宜加強監管衍生市場

明報財經網

【明報專訊】上周尖子閱報得知，某澳洲投資銀行的股票衍生產品部門前交易主管，因為離職賠償金額引起糾紛，入法庭向其前僱主索償5000多萬港元。若果以此推算，這位交易主管的年薪連花紅，最少應該有兩、三千萬港元，較我們的任總還要多。

其實，數年前尖子與此交易主管及其剛剛離職的上司曾有數面之緣，相信他們是約10年前為該澳資銀行在香港建立股票衍生業務的開荒牛。上司擁有法律學位，代表作是以Equity Linked Investment(一種等同股票掛鉤票據，但可以大大降低其銷售數額限制的怪胎)開拓零售銀行這個銷售渠道；至於向舊公司作巨額索償的交易主管，似乎就未見其金融市場或衍生產品之見識有特別的過人之處。

所謂時勢造英雄，此澳資銀行把握了香港監管機構對零售衍生產品監管寬鬆的機遇，以較其他同業進取、針對大眾宣傳模式，在過去10年創造了一個神話，令一家不見經傳的外資銀行，一度躍升為佔有香港窩輪市場成交近三成的主要窩輪發行商，其香港股票衍生部門盈利，佔該銀行全球投資銀行業務盈利(連澳洲在內)的一半有多。

一家紮根澳洲的銀行，其香港的股票衍生業務，居然超越其在澳洲的本業，反映了香港優越的盈利環境。除了香港的宣傳監管及銷售限制較為寬鬆外，澳洲政府一向鼓勵股票期權市場的發展，讓散戶以股票期權作為槓桿投機及風險管理的工具，亦是令投資銀行在澳洲難以賺取它們在香港所獲暴利之理由。

港衍生產品年賺百億

大家要留意，此澳洲投資銀行在香港的窩輪及牛熊證之成交，已於近年跌至市場的一成以下，但其剛離職的僱員依然有條件索償5000多萬港元。尖子估計，外資行提供給香港投資者的衍生金融產品，發行商與分銷機構每年就瓜分了近百億港元的利潤。特區政府實應評估此巨額利潤的實際數字，為衍生市場輔以適當的監管。假設政府在不影響市場參與者所投入的資源下，改變經營環境，讓本地的公眾投資者能省回一半現在被一小撮機構所賺取的暴利，其所達致的經濟效益，有機會等同創造數萬個職位，故此政府不應對此掉以輕心。

撰文：尖子

2008年11月27日星期四

Thanksgiving Gifts

www.kitco.com 全文

Nov 24 2008 12:34PM

www.preciousmetalstockreview.com

It was a very volatile week but in the end the shorts and option writers won the day smashing gold down below $750 when price blew through that mark as quickly as it went up it went down. It’s unfortunate and obvious. Friday was a new day and with option expiry over the price was allowed to move since there was nothing at stake. And move it did up a whole $57. When gold is allowed to trade the strong demand is obvious as price moves explosively. I expect to see more of that on the upside over the course of the next couple of weeks.

The DOW escaped narrowly from closing below the physiologically important 8,000 level and only lost 5.31% on the week. The Nasdaq was less fortunate and lost 8.74% while the S&P 500 lost 8.39% and closed right on the important 800 mark.

Up north in Canada the TSX lost a terrible 9.94% and the Vancouver exchange was slaughtered to the tune of 12.16. It just keeps getting worse and worse.

When the pain for metals will end is still up in the air, but I remain convinced that December tax loss selling will give us the climax we have been waiting for. If a default happens on the Comex in that month it will be all she wrote and the good times will be rolling. The Vancouver index will very likely double overnight and shock the world.

Gold ended up for a change to the tune of 6.64%. Although the price was capped to maximize gains by option writers on Thursday the price traded freely and very strongly on Friday rising $57. I expect the shorts to lose the battle in December and possibly call a force majeure if the Comex ends up defaulting. I am not getting my hopes up, but it is a real possibility.

RSI finally moved above 50 marking a real possibility of a trending move up. The 20 day moving average was smashed on Friday and even the 50 day was bested. Both averages are flat and about to turn up and the 100 day is close to being flat. The first Fibonacci line was beat but gold needs to stay above that line for another day before this move can be called more than a one day aberration. Resistance above here is not that strong so a follow through move all the way up to $841 could be fast and furious.

MACD is very low but moving up strongly with momentum above 0. Slow STO is above 50 now breaking the previous high at 50. I think this is it. With December delivery beginning soon we could be in for some spectacular fireworks to the upside.

On the gold supply front it is seen to likely be reduced by 15% to 20% over the next two years as credit conditions slow growth. The crisis is seen as an opportunity by majors to acquire great development assets on the cheap over that timeframe. I don’t think that problem will persist quite that long. Seeing how gold moved up today (Friday) $57 shows how explosive price can move making projects economical literally overnight. Credit is not hard to find if your project is of high quality.

The Perth Mint had to stop taking orders after demand could simply not be met. The mint is working three shifts 24/7 and cannot output enough metal to meet the demand tsunami. 80% of the demand is coming mainly from Europe then Russia, Ukraine, the Middle East and the US. One $30 million order was filed for a European customer.

Demand for silver is surging in Russia although a small amount but considering its only one bank the countries total must be far higher. Six tonnes of silver was purchased in the first ten months of 2008, triple the total for all of 2007. Gold demand from the bank was up 150% over last year’s total.

The recent 1998 crisis is fresh in their memory and they have learned their lesson and know better. As the saying goes, fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me. They will not be fooled again. Banks in general are seeing large amounts of withdrawals lately so expect precious metal demand to continue to pick up strongly. On CNBC this week commentators were in Russia and saying how people were buying new cars and other real commodities to store value rather than holding cash. Metals must be hard to come by if they are buying new cars and expecting them to hold their value.

There seems to be quite a stir brewing over the potential of Chinese raising their gold reserves. The talk on the street is that they would raise the reserves from 600 tonnes presently to 4,000 tonnes to diversify their increasingly unstable dollar reserves. This story may just be a veiled warning to the west and other interests who would rather see gold stay lower to shape up or the threat will be carried out sending reverberations through western central banks.

If the Chinese are to acquire gold they will not want to pay up and will accumulate it as slowly and as stealthily as possible. China is on track to produce 285 to 300 tonnes of gold this year up from 270.49 tonnes in 2007. They will need to shop for gold in the open market rather than take more than ten years to grow reserves internally.

持有股票

最好吾好多過五隻, 太多隻股票在手, 到時走貨難又太分散,
但散戶弊病是愈買愈多, 因為自己買個隻多數吾多升, 所以會追升個隻, 到追到就倒跌或吾陏！
如果你本人出現呢個情況, 就勸你停一停, 少炒股為妙, 因為運氣吾會成日有！

我睇呢十二月和一月如大市跌, 就是買貨時！
但須選好前景的股來買！哪些是好前景股？自己做功課啦！

現在追買股票

還是太早, 須等十二月表現先！

2008年11月26日星期三

銀行家搞出來的禍

全世界須填數！
又去返無利息時代, 先可以見到人債的好處！

人行大減利率1.08厘

hk.news.yahoo.com

(明報)11月26日星期三 18:15

人民銀行宣布，由明日起，下調金融機構一年期人民幣存貸款基準利率各1.08個百分點。

人行表示，為貫徹落實適度寬鬆的貨幣政策，保證銀行體系流動性充分供應，促進貨幣信貸穩定增長，發揮貨幣政策在支持經濟增長中的積極作用，中國人民銀行決定下調人民幣存貸款基準利率和金融機構存款準備金率。

人行稱，從11月27日起，下調金融機構一年期人民幣存貸款基準利率各1.08個百分點，其他期限檔次存貸款基準利率作相應調整，活期存款利率由0.72厘，減至0.36厘。同時，下調中央銀行再貸款、再貼現等利率。

人行同時從12月5日起，下調工商銀行、農業銀行、中國銀行、建設銀行、交通銀行、郵政儲蓄銀行等大型存款類金融機構人民幣存款準備金率1個百分點，下調中小型存款類金融機構人民幣存款準備金率2個百分點。同時，繼續對汶川地震災區和農村金融機構執行優惠的存款準備金率。

彭博表示，這是內地11年來最大的減息幅度，以支持政府提出的4萬億元人民幣刺激經濟計劃。而人行過息幅度通為0.27厘，今次突然增至1.08厘，增加3倍，超出預期。

2008年11月25日星期二

美元轉弱？

羅杰斯指美元升勢快將逆轉

hk.news.yahoo.com

(明報)11月25日星期二 15:50

有商品大王之稱的投資家羅杰斯認為，美國決策官員設法使美元貶值，因此建議買入商品。

羅杰斯說，他們以為讓美元貶值，就會更有競爭力，長期來看，這在歷史上從未奏效。

羅杰斯4月27日受訪時曾表示，美元升勢即將展開。6月30日以來，美元兌16種主要貨幣全面升值，只有兌日圓除外。但羅杰斯現在表示，美國政府打算逆轉上述升勢，以刺激經濟增長。

羅杰斯昨日接受彭博電視專訪指出，美元將失去作為全球儲備貨幣的地位。美元將貶值，且將大幅度貶值。美國政府希望美元貶值。他表示，他在買入日圓，十月中也開始買入商品、中國及台灣的資產。

對沖基金可能售二千億資產

hk.news.yahoo.com

(明報)11月25日星期二 11:00

一項對沖基金經理人的調查顯示，對沖基金可能仍再出售約2000億美元資產。

Sanford C. Bernstein & Co.的調查顯示，63%的對沖基金經理人稱，拋售資產、降低槓桿的工作至少已完成一半，23%稱這個部分已完成約四分之三。

對沖基金通常融資以增加交易獲利，如今已被迫拋售資產滿足客戶贖回潮，同時緊縮放款條件，因而加大股債市跌勢。

根據Hedge Fund Research Inc.，今年至10月止，標普500指數跌38%，對沖基金平均虧損約16%。

Bernstein分析員柏加在21日致客戶報告中指出，預估還將解除約2,000億美元部位。這項調查在11月前兩周進行，調查逾65家對沖基金、管理總計1,000億美元的經理人。

2008年11月22日星期六

Ignore the Stock Market Until February

finance.yahoo.com

Friday, November 21, 2008

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Down in the morning, up in the afternoon. Or is it the other way around? The topsy-turvy stock market is tough to read.

In the last year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has briefly been over 13,000 and below 8,000. The past month has felt like the Cyclone roller coaster on Brooklyn's Coney Island -- lots of ups and downs, the whole rickety thing feeling like it's going to crash at any minute.

Great investors are taught to listen to the market. Each tick of the tape has something to say about expectations for growth, inflation, policy changes and looming recessions. The stock market is like a giant mass of pulsing plasma doing price discovery and a game of hot potato, getting stocks into the correct hands with the right risk profile. It's way too big for any one person to manipulate, let alone touch directly. Instead, millions of us provide input with our buying and selling decisions.

When it's at its most efficient, with buyers and sellers neatly matched up at the right price, it's a pretty good predictor. The Crash of 1929 announced a recession, and the wake-up call unheeded might have caused many of the bad policies leading to the Great Depression. The Crash of 1987? Not so much.

You see, the market is a great manipulator. In September, the Dow dropped 700 points intraday after the House of Representatives voted down the Treasury's TARP bank-rescue bill. Spooked, the House passed the bill the next week. Or how about this? The Dow was up 300 points on Election Day applauding an Obama victory and then down 1,600 points since.

The market can also be a bold-faced liar. On Jan. 22, the Fed announced an emergency 75-basis-point rate cut in response to huge drops in European markets. A few days later, it came out that a rogue trader at Société Générale lost them $7 billion and the bank was unwinding his positions. Oops.

So which is it now: an efficient mechanism or a manipulating liar? Should you listen to it warning of doom or anticipating renewal? I'd say stick wax in your ears and don't listen to the market until February.

Don't get me wrong. The freezing of the credit markets is wreaking havoc on the world economy. Corporate profits are dropping. Central banks are fighting off deflation and may not turn off the spigots fast enough -- which could ignite runaway inflation. But because of the credit mess, I am convinced the stock market is at its least efficient today. Don't read too much into any move. Here are the five biggest dislocations taking place:

- Tax-loss selling: Whenever you have a loss in a stock -- and who doesn't -- it's always tax smart to sell it, take a tax loss and either buy something similar or wait 30 days and buy the original one back. December can be an ugly month of indiscriminate selling. The December effect will be huge this year.

- Mutual-fund redemptions: Mutual funds are also dumped for tax losses. When the stock market is down in the morning, it's usually because of mutual-fund redemptions.

Fidelity's giant Magellan fund, down 56%, is one of many in the $6 trillion stock-fund business having an awful year. As investors call or click to get out of these funds, Fidelity and the others have to unload shares the next morning to raise cash. This forced-selling overwhelms the system. New York Stock Exchange specialists, who are supposed to maintain an orderly market, stop buying and back away. You get huge drops, which can unnerve even more investors and cause them to redeem.

- Mutual fund cap-gain distributions: To make matters worse, in December mutual funds do capital-gains distributions. In a down year like 2008, you would think there are no taxes to pay. Think again. Legg Mason's Value Trust, run by Bill Miller, outperformed the market for 15 years by buying many "unvalue" names like Amazon. As investors redeem, he is forced to sell many of these stocks originally purchased at very low prices, triggering huge capital gains in a year his fund is down 62%. You can almost guarantee investors also will sell more of these funds to pay their unexpected tax bill.

- Hedge-fund redemptions: Instead of overnight selling like mutual funds, hedge funds typically require 45 days' notice for investors to get out of a fund. They've been furiously selling since September to raise cash to pay investors. This usually shows up as a set of stocks that just go down and down and down with no obvious explanation.

Rubbing salt in hedge-fund wounds is the fact that Lehman Brothers was a prime broker to many hedge funds, holding their shares. While Lehman's bankruptcy was not a problem in the U.S., in England the policy is to freeze accounts until the mess can be sorted out. There are billions in assets locked in this bankruptcy, and hedge funds are forced to sell positions in the U.S. and elsewhere to raise cash, exacerbating the downside here.

By the way, when hedge funds are down for the year, they work practically for free until they make up the loss. We'll see hedge funds close and stocks liquidated as -- no surprise -- hedge-fund managers like to get paid.

- Margin calls: Whenever stocks go down sharply, you quickly find who owns them with debt. We have seen spectacular margin calls, a requirement for more capital to cover share losses. Chesapeake Energy CEO Aubrey McClendon unloaded 33 million shares to cover losses. Viacom CEO Sumner Redstone had a forced sale of $400 million in Viacom and CBS shares because of a margin call on other stocks. You can bet many not-so-public margin calls are behind many huge price drops. These usually take place in the last 30 minutes of trading.

So won't January be alright once these dislocations weighing on the market are lifted? The January effect is supposed to be positive.

Well, often money managers are fired at the end of disastrous years. A new manager comes in, looks at the existing positions and dumps them all and remakes the portfolio with new stocks that he likes, thus generating more selling. My favorite Wall Street adage suggests that the stock market trades to inflict the maximum amount of pain. Remember, you can only ignore the stock market for so long. Once everyone thinks it can only go down . . . it might go up.

Mr. Kessler, a former hedge-fund manager, is the author of "How We Got Here" (Collins, 2005).

2008年11月21日星期五

金價今晚最高 801

本來 hold 住三分之一資金, 在金跌破 700 樓下才加碼, 睇來買吾到平金了！

都係金保值

金升油跌！

2008年11月20日星期四

在大市沒到谷底時

吾睇市, 出去消費好過,
及在 hyper inflation 沒殺到來之前, 剩商店大減價買夠日用品！

昨晚曇花一現

之後外幣和金跟美股跌返落去; 金在 760 遇好大阻力！
睇來股市低位沒算低, 都還須忍忍手！

2008年11月19日星期三

美元轉弱

金發威！

2008年11月18日星期二

普遍大眾對金不熱烈

近來同身邊朋友舊客提起炒金, 得吾到回應！
有人說在高位九百幾出佐金飾, 有人說在六百幾已沽曬！
說要五百幾才會買返！

睇怕, 美在等 Obama 上台

finance.yahoo.com

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The two top salesmen for a $700 billion financial bailout are in for a grilling by Capitol Hill lawmakers just one week after the administration officially ditched the original strategy behind the rescue.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson are expected to provide greater insights into the shift when they testify Tuesday before the House Financial Services Committee.

In a profile published Tuesday in The Washington Post, Paulson, who is overseeing the bailout program for the Bush administration, said he was also working on a proposal that would allow the government to take over a wide range of financial institutions -- not just banks -- that are in danger of collapse.

Last week, Paulson changed course and announced that the government would not use any of the $700 billion to buy rotten mortgages and other bad assets from banks. That had been the centerpiece of the plan when Paulson and Bernanke originally pitched it to lawmakers.

"Our assessment ... is that this is not the most effective way" to use the bailout money, Paulson said at that time.

Instead, Paulson said the department would focus on rolling out a capital injection program to pour $250 billion into banks in return for partial ownership stakes in them.

It would also search for new ways to boost the availability of auto loans, student loans and credit cards, which have been become harder to get due to the credit crisis, he said.

Specifically, the department, along with the Federal Reserve, is exploring using some of the bailout money to bankroll a new loan facility. The aim: helping companies that issue credit cards, make student loans and finance car purchases.

The idea behind the capital injection program is for banks to use the money to rebuild reserves and lend more freely to customers. However, banks do have the leeway to use the money for other things, such as buying other banks or paying dividends to investors. That has touched a nerve with some lawmakers.

Locked-up lending is a prime reason why the United States is suffering through the worst financial crisis since the 1930s. All the fallout from the housing, credit and financial crises have badly hurt the economy, which is almost certainly in recession, analysts say.

The administration, however, has remained opposed to using some of the bailout money to help troubled U.S. automakers or to provide guarantees for mortgages at risk of falling into foreclosure, another huge source of distress for the economy.

Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass., chairman of the panel, has been tapped by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to draft an aid package for Detroit. The auto companies are seeking $25 billion for emergency loans.

In a break with the administration stance, Sheila Bair, chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., who also will testify Tuesday, recently proposed using $24 billion of the bailout money to help some American households avoid foreclosure.

So far, Treasury Department has pledged $250 billion for banks and has agreed to devote $40 billion to troubled insurer American International Group-- its first slice of funds going to a company other than a bank. That leaves just $60 billion available from Congress' first bailout installment of $350 billion.

Congressional officials said Paulson indicated he is unlikely to tap the remaining $350 billion before the administration leaves office on Jan. 20. That would mean the incoming Obama administration would decide whether and how the money should be spent. The congressional officials spoke on condition of anonymity, saying they were not authorized to disclose the developments.

2008年11月16日星期日

股神逆市增持能源股

蘋果日報

【本報綜合報道】美國股神畢菲特繼續在疲弱的股市中尋寶，其投資旗艦巴郡上季增持美國第三大油公司康菲石油（ ConocoPhillips ）股份，成為最大股東；並增持德州第二大電力公司 NRG Energy 股權，反映他看好能源業長遠前景。不過，巴郡已減持美國銀行（ BOA ）股份。

巴郡減持美銀股份

據巴郡上周五向當局申報的資料，截至 9 月 30 日止，該公司共持有 8396 萬股康菲石油，佔股 5.6% ，現市值約 40 億美元，較 3 月底時所持 1751 萬股多出 3.8 倍。期內巴郡亦增持 NRG Energy 股份 54% 至 500 萬股，令持股量增至 2.2% ；據悉， NRG 早前被 Exelon 公司提出收購，但已拒絕收購建議。
除上述投資外，巴郡於 2000 年亦收購能源公司 MidAmerican Energy ，反映畢菲特看好能源業長遠前景。事實上，國際能源機構（ IEA ）估計，全球原油消耗量到 2030 年會激增約 25% ，至每日 1.06 億桶。分析師稱，儘管現時股市低迷，但畢菲特著眼於未來數十年的投資前景。
巴郡同時披露，已持有工業設備製造商 Eaton 的 1.8% 股權，後者為美國波音飛機和德國福士汽車供應零件。

2008年11月15日星期六

沙地兩周吸值273億元黃金

hk.news.yahoo.com

(星島日報報道)金價由高位回落近三成，新興國家對黃金的需求顯著上升。繼中國有意增加黃金儲備後，波斯灣地區的Gulf News日前亦報道，沙地近兩周合共增持了三十五億美元（約二百七十三億港元）黃金，以近期黃金價徘徊於每盎司七百三十美元計，即每噸黃金約兩億港元，沙地於短短兩周合共增持高達一百三十六點五噸黃金。

　　據Gulf News網站本周三報道，沙地對黃金出現了空前的需求，於過去兩周沙地合共斥資一百三十億元沙地利雅（沙特阿拉伯的貨幣單位）（約三十四點七一億美元），大舉掃入黃金。雖然不排除有投資者因當地股市回落，金融海嘯肆虐，把資金轉移投放於黃金避險，不過，市場人士估計，在短短兩周時間，能斥巨資大舉掃入黃金，相信沙地政府是幕後最大的買家。

　　據World Gold Council的資料顯示，沙地九月份持有黃金一百四十三噸，佔其儲備約一成。以黃金儲備量排名，沙地排名全球第二十四位。在過去兩周增持後，估計其黃金儲備量將高逾二百七十九噸，排名將躍升至第二十位。同為石油出口國的委內瑞拉，排名高踞十五位，黃金儲備達三百五十六點八噸，黃金佔其儲備比例高達百分之二十九點三。

　　俄羅斯亦掃近70噸

　　除了沙地外，新興國家如俄羅斯亦於六月至九月出手增持近七十噸黃金，估計斥資高約一百四十億港元，令其持金量增至四百七十二點六噸，排名亦由十三升至十一。

　　中國擁有一萬九千億美元的外匯儲備，但黃金儲備僅六百噸，佔其儲備低至百分之零點九。難怪在美元大幅波動及美債或下跌之下，中國會希望分散其儲備的風險，增持黃金。

　　據彭博引述中國黃金協會副會長侯惠民表示，中國需要最少數千噸黃金作為儲備，以現時六百噸計，便要增加五至六倍。現時美元上升而黃金價格回落，為中國把儲備由美元轉至黃金造就了一個很好的時機。彭博報道表示，中國人民銀行北京發言人拒絕回應中國將增持黃金作儲備的消息。

　　雖然中國當局沒有正面回應，但眾多市場人士皆認為，中國增持黃金儲備極為合理，金價目前已回落至相當吸引的水平，中國持金量較日本的七百六十五點二噸還少，與美國的八千一百三十三點五噸一比，更是小巫見大巫。

　　有分析員指出，即使有消息透露某某國家或地區會大量增持黃金，金價亦未必會大升，因為國家儲備的組合比例轉變通常會歷時相當長的一段時間。國家不會於短時期內大量掃入黃金，因這只會令市場供求出現失衡，把金價推升至極至荒謬的地步。

　　金價昨造好，於亞洲時段徘徊於七百二十五至七百三十美元一盎司，於美國時段突然飆升，曾高見七百五十美元，其後稍為回軟，現報七百四十四美元。

2008年11月14日星期五

傳中國將大量增持黃金

tw.money.yahoo.com

【鉅亨網謝淑娟．綜合報導】美國政府的7000億美元救市計畫必須大舉發行國債及印鈔以應付資金需求，勢必令美國財政赤字加劇，長期下來將對美元構成貶值壓力。而中國持有大量美元外匯儲備，為保值，北京政府有意增加黃金儲備，減低美元貶值帶來的損失。市場人士則認為，中國持有 3000- 4000噸左右的黃金較為適當。

據《星島日報》報導，中國目前黃金儲備僅 600噸，佔該國外匯儲備約1%，遠低於美國儲備近 8成的8000 噸。今年至 9月底，中國外匯儲備達 1.9兆美元，其中有超過 60%為美元資產，包括5000億美元以上的美國國債、3000-4000 億美元的「兩房」相關債券，是美國主要債權國。

雖中國答應支持美國共禦金融海嘯，但仍未決定是否要大舉購買美國國債，主要便是因為美元若嚴重貶值，中國將反受其害。美國政府的7000億美元救市計畫必大舉發行國債及印鈔以應付資金需求，如本季便將發行 550億美元國債；主要買家不外乎就是中國、印度、中東 3國。美國2008年財政赤字已達4550億美元，佔總體經濟3.2%；2009年更可能突破 1兆美元，佔總體經濟高達 7%。

大舉發債，美元必將無可避免地貶值。因此為不受美國財政赤字影響，加以商品有價，中國政府傾向增持黃金，以平衡外匯儲備。

當前中國黃金儲備僅 600噸，還有很大的增持空間。敦沛金融期貨部高級副總裁周燕珊指出黃金保值度高，故短期內當市場穩定下來後，各國應會增加黃金儲備；這也是為何油價狂跌，金價仍支持在 700美元的理由。

她表示，中國在2、3年前金融危機未現之時便已有意增持黃金，而在目前的環境下，增持需求更強烈。她認為中國的黃金儲備量介於 3000-4000噸最為合適。

中國黃金協會副秘書長萬國利則表示，中國黃金儲備不多，適量增持是好事；且現時金價約 710-720美元，是買入良機。此外，政府一旦增持必會購入一筆不小的數目，對金價也有利好作用。

據了解，中國大型金融機構最近在美國債券外增持黃金，中國央行也容許銀行及保險公司的作法，反映出內地對黃金投資的態度。

世界黃金協會遠東區董事總經理鄭良豪則表示，國家亦應分散投資組合，而黃金正是個好工具。以歐洲為例，歐洲央行會員國的黃金儲備比例為 15%。

昨天下午去合和中心

把個幾千股中海油轉名長線持有, 有好多人排隊（超過五十人）; 轉名須時兩個星期, 証明有好多人提股票出來轉名！

2008年11月13日星期四

全線下跌

只有日元強！

2008年11月12日星期三

再來個通脹

biz.yahoo.com

LONDON (AP) -- The International Energy Agency on Wednesday predicted world energy demand will rise 1.6 percent per year on average between 2006 and 2030 and called for massive investment in energy infrastructure to prevent a supply squeeze.

The IEA's base scenario for energy demand has fallen due to the global economic slowdown and higher oil prices, but the agency stressed that a delay in spending on new projects due to the credit crisis could lead to a "supply crunch that could choke economic recovery."

The IEA expects demand for oil to rise from 85 million barrels per day currently to 106 million barrels per day in 2030 -- 10 million barrels per day less than projected last year.

China and India continue to be the main drivers, accounting for more than half of incremental energy demand to 2030, but the Middle East, a longtime supplier, also emerges as a major new demand center.

The agency said that these trends call for energy supply investment of $26.3 trillion to 2030, or more than $1 trillion a year, but it noted that tight credit conditions could delay spending.

"While the situation facing the world is critical, it is vital we keep our eye on the medium to long term target of a sustainable energy future," Nobuo Tanaka, the Paris-based agency's executive director, told reporters at the release of its annual World Energy Outlook report in London.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, which pumps around 40 percent of the world's oil, cut output by 1.5 million barrels per day from Nov. 1 to counter a recent fall in the price of crude from a high of $147 in July to under $59 on Wednesday.

OPEC has also warned that crucial downstream investment -- in refining and distribution -- will be curtailed if the oil price is not maintained at a reasonable level.

The IEA has nearly doubled its forecast for the price of oil over the next twenty years, because of rising demand in the developing world as well as surging costs of production as oil needs to be sourced from more expensive offshore fields and state-run companies.

It hiked its forecast for the price of a barrel of oil in 2030 to just over US$200 in nominal terms, compared to its forecast last year of US$108 a barrel. Measured in constant dollars, it pegs oil at US$120 a barrel in 2030, up from last year's forecast of US$62.

Over 2008 to 2015, it predicts the price to average $100.

Tanaka said that "while market imbalances will feed instability, the era of cheap oil is over."

Fatih Birol, the IEA's chief economist, warned that even if growth in oil demand remained static in the years to 2030, production would need to increase by 45 million barrels per day, "which means bringing four new Saudi Arabia's on stream."

Saudi Arabia is OPEC's top producer and most influential member, and Birol said that the cartel would be increasingly central to the industry in coming years with its share of output likely to rise to just above 50 percent.

And while Birol believes that oil demand has peaked in the OECD, he expects primary energy demand in the Middle East to surge by 3.2 percent from 2006 to 2030.

Tanaka said that a fundamental change was underway in the upstream oil and gas industry -- exploration and extraction -- with international oil companies facing dwindling opportunities to increase their reserves and production.

In contrast, national oil companies are expected to account for 80 percent of the increase in both oil and gas production to 2030.

However, Tanaka said it was "far from certain" those companies would be willing to make the necessary investment themselves or to attract sufficient capital to keep up the necessary pace of investment."

The report also highlighted the expected rapid growth of renewable energy resources. It predicts that world renewables-based electricity generation -- mostly hydro and wind power -- will overtake gas to become the second-largest source of electricity, behind coal, before 2015.

先來個通縮

www.reuters.com 全交
LONDON (Reuters) - A number of deals designed to cure the global financial crisis were in danger of unraveling on Wednesday, with losses mounting at banks and economies showing further signs of serious deterioration.

The euro zone, Britain, China and South Africa reported data supporting the arrival of a global recession and prompting expectations of further interest rate cuts.

"We are certainly prepared to cut ... again, if that proves to be necessary," Bank of England Governor Mervyn King told a news conference after UK inflation was forecast to be minimal.

The International Monetary Fund withheld official backing for a $6 billion bailout plan for Iceland, the Financial Times reported, putting loans to the North Atlantic island nation under threat.

Some of British banking giant Barclays' biggest shareholders have threatened to vote against a planned 7 billion pound ($10.83 billion) capital raising unless it improves the terms of the deal, British newspapers said.

The latter follows a row over the crisis-driven planned purchase of British lender HBOS by Lloyds TSB with leading banking figures arguing a more competitive deal should be sought.

Aides to U.S. President-elect Barack Obama, meanwhile, were playing down reports of tension with the Bush administration over help for the stricken car industry.

A feud within Japan's cabinet over whether rich people should get payouts as part of a stimulus package looked set to be put aside after delaying the plan for weeks.

Questions were also beginning to be asked about just how much help governments can give.

"The U.S.' financial resources are already stretched and a flood of new demands may overwhelm a government already staring down at a record budget deficit next year," UBS economists said in a note.

SEESAW

Financial markets seesawed again under the combined pressure of a global economic downturn and the worst financial crisis in 80 years.

Wall Street looked set for a flat to negative start and European shares dipped in and out of positive territory after losing more than 4 percent on Tuesday.

There were more corporate profit warnings with General Motors shares falling on Tuesday to levels not seen since World War Two.

"Whether it's economic indicators or company news, it's just too awful," said Takashi Ushio, head of the investment strategy division at Marusan Securities in Tokyo.

美元強到你吾信

有錢都係須忍手！

以為恒指好快再見三萬的人在發夢

www.reuters.com

NEW YORK (Reuters) - For most of the past century, Goldman Sachs was top of the heap among Wall Street's investment banking firms, but its prospects as a heavily regulated bank are not so bright.

After months of fretting about capital and liquidity levels at banks, the market has turned its focus from Goldman's survival prospects to its earnings potential. Investors clearly do not like what they see.

"The days of getting 35 percent (returns) on equity are over -- much of that was achieved with leverage," Mendon Capital President and Chief Investment Officer Anton Schutz told Reuters on Monday.

Brokers and banks, he said, must change their ways. "There is no doubt their balance sheets are seen as weaker. They're trying to get leverage ratios down," Schutz said.

Investors may get some answers when Goldman Chief Executive Lloyd Blankfein speaks at a Merrill Lynch investor conference after the closing bell on Tuesday.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc shares on Monday fell to their lowest levels since 2003 as a growing chorus of analysts forecast plunging markets will produce a fourth-quarter loss -- the firm's first quarterly loss since it went public in 1999.

The stock has plunged 71 percent since reaching a record high last October and is down nearly two-thirds since the end of July. It stood at $72.04 in Tuesday morning trade.

Investors are questioning the firm's ability to retain its famed Midas touch, where an elite army of traders and bankers generated the industry's biggest profits year after year.

The question now is where Goldman will seek new sources of revenue and which businesses it will abandon as it goes through the transition from broker to bank.

"I don't know what Goldman and Morgan Stanley will look like after they re-size," Oppenheimer & Co banking analyst Meredith Whitney said. "I'm agnostic on those names right now. There is a lot they have to go through."

BLANKFEIN SPEAKS

In previous year presentations, Blankfein laid out a blueprint for a firm boldly betting its own capital across markets and companies, taking on more risk than its peers.

He also made no apologies for Goldman's combination of advisory businesses with investment activities. Twelve months ago, he emphasized expansion into fast-growing markets like China and building a private wealth management business.

Since announcing its conversion to a bank and plans to seek a New York state banking charter two months ago, Goldman has been typically mum about its intentions for deposit-gathering and how it would reorganize.

Two months ago, investors made it clear they had little confidence in companies that relied on volatile capital markets for funds needed to run their businesses. Gathering deposits from individuals is now the preferred model.

Banks are expected to maintain higher levels of capital and cash and take on less risk. That has forced Goldman and Morgan to reconsider how to participate in credit intensive businesses such as prime brokerage, deal financing and commodities.

Goldman addressed some of those concerns by selling $5 billion of preferred stock to Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc, $6 billion of stock in a public offering, and $10 billion of preferred stock to the U.S. Treasury.

Last week Goldman fired more than 3,200 employees, or 10 percent of its workforce, the latest in a series of layoffs. And like its peers, it is shedding assets and paying down debt.

That has not stemmed a drumbeat of rumors about the bank's next moves. In recent weeks traders have speculated Goldman will pursue a management buyout or combine with a big bank, perhaps Citigroup.

At the behest of government officials, Blankfein called Citi CEO Vikram Pandit to discuss a potential deal, people familiar with the matter said. Pandit dismissed the idea and the call ended within a minute, the sources said.

For the foreseeable future, debt and mortgage markets remain in disarray. Merger and underwriting activity has slowed to a crawl. Plunging markets are eroding money management fees and generating portfolio losses.

On Tuesday, Fox-Pitt Kelton's David Trone became the latest analyst to forecast a fourth-quarter loss at Goldman. He expects the firm to absorb a $2.7 billion drop in principal investments and a record $2 billion of credit writedowns.

2008年11月11日星期二

諗下如果港元再俾人衝勢會發生乜事？

1. 港元大跌, 資金會流去邊隻貨幣？
2. 港元利息大升。
3. 股市, 樓市大跌。
4. 物價大升。

我地可以做乜來防範？

一些銀行 promotion

大新銀行[有升有息]高息三個月定期, 2008年12月13日載止：http://www.dahsing.com

中國建設銀行[息得自在]活期高息戶口, 每月新資金才有高息, 戶口最少保持 5,000 蚊：
http://www.asia.ccb.com
（網頁好差, 只可以用 IE開, 無得用其他 browser ! 須改善！）
有熊仔 speaker/radio 兩用送, 在上水分行開戶, 11月29日前, 每日首50位還有 50蚊百佳 coupon 送 !
另外在任何分行, 100,000 蚊三個月定期新資金有 200蚊百佳 coupon 送（息就睇當日息率, 昨天只有 1.9%）！

嘉華銀行和渣打銀行都有高息活期戶口, 不過最少須保持 10,000 蚊在戶口, 吾係會扣錢！

講講買保險

我講股, 講樓, 講外幣, 講黃金, 講基金, 但好少講保險, 因為買的保險吾多！

壽險
以前在荷蘭做生意借錢, 銀行要我地買壽險, 所以買了, 但好似成日希望自己快些死, 可以有得賠, 之後生意賣了, 就無再買過壽險！

醫療保險
在荷蘭規定一定要買醫療保險, 自顧人士自付款, 工人就有老闆俾錢！
後來回來香港定居後無再買了, 只在返證券行工初初幾年, 公司有代買醫療保, 但在 2000 年出強積金, 公司要我們全班經紀轉自顧, 醫療保險須自己買, 所以無買無了醫療保！去過銀行睇醫療計劃, 樣樣都要供好多錢, 賠得又少, 不如自己儲起錢備用好過！

樓宇火險
在香港和大陸買樓做按揭, 都要買火險, 一清按揭就無再買了！
現只有自住呢層樓, 管理處有買火險外, 其餘無買！

家居保險
因為前兩年突然浴窒漏水落樓下, 又爆廁所污溝, 要俾錢維修, 所以諗諗下, 呢次小事姐, 但下次可能會有更嚴重事發生, 所以買了家居保險; 又包第三保, 所以幾岩用！

雖然身邊好多朋友, 舊客戶都是做保險的, 收的卡片都不少, 但覺得, 買佐到時吾知有無得賠, 不如自己儲多些錢保障自己好過。依家証明我直覺無錯, 連甘大間保險公司都保吾到自己, 又點保你呢？

加多句：
買保險吾好貪平, 吾好選最平保費個間公司, 而要預計間公司信吾信得過, 將來有無得賠錢俾你！

2008年11月10日星期一

今晚金油升

還以為可以在 700 樓下買到實金！

東歐好吾掂

www.reuters.com 全文

LONDON (Reuters) - Economic gloom swept through Japan and several emerging nations on Monday and U.S. authorities bailed out struggling insurer AIG, buying $40 billion in new shares to prevent its collapse.

European bank results also bore the scars of the worst financial crisis since the 1930s.

Rating agency Fitch cut Romania's credit rating to "junk" status in one of four emerging market downgrades and said the global financial crisis had put the ratings of South Korea, South Africa, Russia and Mexico in jeopardy.

Foreign investors have dumped east European assets, fearing that many in the region may not be able to handle large foreign debt burdens.

Fitch also cut the ratings of Bulgaria, Kazakhstan and Hungary.

The AIG rescue deal was announced as the insurer, once the world's largest insurer by market value, posted its biggest-ever quarterly loss -- $24.47 billion -- hurt again by writedowns on assets linked to subprime mortgages and capital losses.

The new package will allow the Fed to cut to $60 billion from $85 billion the total available to AIG under a credit facility set up in September.

"These new measures establish a more durable capital structure, resolve liquidity issues, facilitate AIG's execution of its plans to sell certain of its businesses in an orderly manner, promote market stability, and protect the interests of the U.S. government and taxpayers," the Fed said.

In Asia, Japanese manufacturers suffered their biggest quarterly slump in machinery orders in a decade, official data showed, boding ill for capital investment as the economy teeters on the brink of recession

Even fast-growing China has not proved immune.

Beijing approved a 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) government spending package to boost domestic demand and help the world's fourth-largest economy ride out the crisis.

China's stimulus comes on top of more than $4 trillion in government pledges around the world for bank bailouts, credit guarantees and fiscal spending to contain the damage from the worst financial turmoil in 80 years.

銀行沒得到教訓

剛才去恒生把一個月澳元定期轉做兩個月澳元定期, 另外有個職員在 teller 旁加口：
職員：要吾要做三個月, 息會高 d ？
我：我見到（網上）三個月低過二個月息啊！
職員：可以俾高 d 息妳的; 一個月有 1.x%, 第二個月有 2.x%, 第三個月可以有 4.x%, 須睇澳元波動 ......
我：呢個吾係掛鉤哇？
職員：吾係, 係睇澳元到時升定跌...
我：甘, 政府保吾保先？
職員：吾保, 呢 d 吾保.
我：甘就係掛鉤囉, 我想只做普通定期, 要做二個月的！
對在我旁邊的老公說：有無搞錯, 依家總 sell 呢 d 野！所以入來都要打起十二分精神！

2008年11月8日星期六

暫不再貼本人投資

至到經濟好返為止！

97金融風爆, 輸錢的是炒家, 炒股炒樓者都輸錢,
我當時在股市都輸佐一大筆！
沙士期間, 經濟低迷, 全民一齊捱,
依家金融海嘯, 全世界輸錢, 就連不炒賣的老人家都輸棺材本, 有錢人輸 Accumulator, 廠家，商家都要輸, 雖然我可以避呢劫, 但心中吾好過！

2008年11月7日星期五

齊齊來減息

文匯報

【本報訊】綜合外電報道：金融海嘯令歐洲多國經濟走下坡，歐元區、英國、丹麥、瑞士和捷克昨日紛紛減息刺激經濟，其中英倫銀行減幅更高達1厘半，利息由4.5厘減至3厘。英倫銀行減息後，歐洲央行亦跟隨減息0.5厘，至2年新低3.25厘，合乎市場預期。經濟師貢特曼表示﹕「雖然減息半厘，但經濟問題仍會持續，減息周期仍未完結」，預期減息會陸續有來。

　英國萊斯銀行率先將按揭利率減至5厘，減幅與英倫銀行相同，各主要銀行亦表示會考慮跟隨。歐洲央行行長特里謝表示，不排除將進一步減息。

錯估嚴重性　遭批反應遲緩

　英倫銀行上月才與其他中央銀行協調，緊急把利率從5厘減到4.5厘。英倫銀行今次減息幅度遠超市場預期，是1981年來最大的減幅，3厘的利率是1955年來最低。Charles Stanley的經濟師梅納什稱﹕「外界越來越感到英倫銀行錯估今次衰退的嚴重性，所以反應遲緩。」

　英倫銀行指出，通脹前景明顯下降，貨幣政策委員會認為通脹有明顯降至低於目標的風險，而貨幣和環球信貸已經嚴重收緊，商品價格急跌，經濟活動前景亦明顯惡化，薪金加幅受壓，有需要大幅減息刺激經濟。

　歐洲央行首席經濟師斯塔克周三表示﹕「這次衰退比較嚴重，難以與之前的衰退相比，銀行業界的問題會衍生嚴重後果，未來幾年都要面對。」大部分分析員都預期，歐洲央行的利率在明年中會跌至2厘至2.5厘。

丹麥瑞士捷克　各減0.5-0.75

　此外，瑞士央行亦突然減息半厘，是1個月內第2次，目標利率介乎1.5厘至2.5厘。央行說，全球經濟惡化程度較預期嚴重，將對未來幾季經濟增長產生影響。瑞士央行預期，明年經濟增長或出現負數，減息可以為經濟帶來動力，而且不會阻礙物價回穩，又說，會繼續增加市場流動性。

　捷克央行昨日亦將利息減0.75厘，至2.75厘，較市場預期的0.25厘為高。最近，澳洲、中國、印度、日本、科威特、挪威等央行都紛紛減息刺激經濟。此外，丹麥央行亦宣布減息半厘，至5厘。

　國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）昨日發表新一輪明年經濟預測，比上月預測大為倒退。IMF估計歐元區及美國明年將分別出現0.5%及0.7%的負增長，又將亞洲國家明年經濟增長預測下調至7.1%。

2008年11月6日星期四

首置貸款壞帳4.88億

hk.news.yahoo.com

【明報專訊】政府在2002年終止首次置業貸款計劃後，總數3.3萬宗個案中仍有1.5萬宗尚在清還，當中有三成曾拖欠還款，另有1473名欠債業主最終破產收場，令負責貸款的房屋協會面對4.88億元壞帳。運輸及房屋局長鄭汝樺昨日表明，金融海嘯下物業市場非常不明朗，市民置業時需要更謹慎，政府不會重推首置貸款鼓勵置業。

「首次置業貸款計劃」於1998年推出，以協助欠缺首期的年輕家庭置業，合資格家庭可獲一筆過60萬元或三成樓價支付首期，計劃由政府向房協提供180億元資金負責推行。在98至02年期間，共資助3.3萬個申請人成為業主，總貸款額達148.5億元。

半數完成還款三成曾拖欠

運輸及房屋局長鄭汝樺昨日接受立法會質詢時指出，3.3萬宗申請中，約1.6萬宗已完成還款，另有1.5萬宗正在還款，但當中有三成人曾拖欠款項，房協正就360宗個案循法律途徑追討。另有1473宗屬破產個案，房協需要撇帳，佔總個案數目的4.4％。房協發言人表示，仍在還款的首置貸款個案總額約為40億元，房協過去為約1500宗壞帳個案已撇帳達4.8億元。

鄭汝樺表示，自2002年重訂房屋政策後，鼓勵置業不再是政府房屋政策目標，政府不應擔當貸款機構角色影響市民的置業決定，因此政府無意重推首置貸款。

她續指出，金融海嘯令物業市場變得非常不明朗，市民作置業決定時需要更謹慎，政府會繼續密切監察房地產市場求情况。

房委會投資賺11億

鄭汝樺又指出，金融海嘯會對房委會600億元儲備的投資收益構成負面影響，房委會決定進一步減少投資組合中的環球股票比重至25％以下，現金比例將超過三成。她強調，雖然截至今年3月，去年股票投資虧蝕達20億元，但股息和匯兌收益等獲利31億元，總投資收入有11億元，回報率仍達1.9％，在現時金融環境下已算不錯。

立法會議員馮檢基指出，過去3個月股市進一步下挫，憂慮房委會投資進一步虧損，他促請房委會「斬纜」，不要再把儲備拿來投資。

油金價急升後回落

文匯報

【本報訊】(記者林德芬)沙特阿拉伯正根據油組(OPEC)上月的減產協議減少原油出口，加上環球股市向好，期油價格日前大幅反彈，紐約12月份期油周二收市升6.62美元，報70.53美元/桶，但於亞洲電子交易時段略為回軟。美元持續走強，投資者在原油價格周二漲至兩周高位後選擇獲利回吐，紐約期油昨晚10:14每桶報68.46美元，跌2.93%，倫敦布蘭特原油每桶報64.32美元，跌3.19%。

油價是否見底看法謹慎

　國際油價前日急升逾10%，主要因為有跡象表明油組近期減產已開始發揮作用。但鑒於石油需求仍可能下滑，分析師目前仍對油價觸底的看法持謹慎態度。到目前為止，油價較7月份紀錄高點下滑了50%以上。

　據道瓊斯一份調查顯示，10月份OPEC12個成員國的石油生產配額較上月每日下降150,000桶，降幅0.5%。有跡象顯示實施減產成員國有所增多，這對油價構成一些支撐，近幾周來原油價格也在追隨股市走向，因投資者希望從股市中搜索經濟及石油需求前景的線索。

羅傑斯料各國沽金籌資

　油價上升及美元下跌，刺激金價於4日上升4%，紐約12月期金收市升30.5美元，每盎司報 757.3美元，最高見過766.7美元。市場對全球經濟衰退的憂慮減退，美股造好，投資者更願意承受風險，沽出手頭的美元轉投商品及股市帶動金價上升，白銀及鉑金期貨都上升超過3%。截至昨晚10:14，紐約12月期金最新報753美元，跌0.57%或4.3美元。

預期金價跌至600美元

　「商品大王」羅傑斯昨日表示，預期世界各國及國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）為了籌集救市資金，可能要變賣黃金儲備；而為對抗通脹，投資者會買入白銀，故白銀價格表現會跑贏黃金，並預期金價將跌至600美元，屆時則會大量買入。

　市場預期歐洲及英國央行本周會大舉減息，期望可紓緩信貸緊張及環球央行減息有助刺激經濟，令對美元的避險需求下降。在紐約匯市，反映美元兌一籃子貨幣強弱的美元指數下跌2.5%，是13年以來最大的跌幅。歐元兌美元單日升2.8%，是歐元面世以來最大的單日升幅，歐元兌美元日前曾報1.3026美元。昨日歐元亦曾高見1.3031美元，其後高位回落，至昨晚10:14分報1.2918美元。

美元受奧巴馬當選影響微

　巴克萊認為，奧巴馬勝選短期對美元影響非常有限，因為影響美元的驅動因素是經常項目及全球利率因素。中期而言，需要觀察奧巴馬會任命誰來擔任財政部長，而且他會採取何種政策措施來應對銀行業危機。

2008年11月5日星期三

已沽曬手上美元

轉港元活期！

感覺上香港是沽美元的好地方, 政府係甘接！

美元大升有陰謀？

蘋果日報

美國總統選舉昨日投票，希望今晚能公佈結果，希望看熱鬧的人會希望奧巴馬當選，開創美國歷史先河，選出第一位黑人總統。
但是，儘管奧巴馬在競選時不斷的說要改變美國、改變世界，但是，面對全球金融海嘯，在整個競選過程，我們看不到奧巴馬有甚麼解決金融海嘯的方案，最後，相信是跳不出凱恩斯的方法 ─ ─ 加強國家干預，狂印鈔票。
過去三個月，全球外匯炒家最無法理解的，就是為甚麼美元匯價會轉強。人人都說美國會狂印鈔票，狂印鈔票之後，市值點解不貶值？但是，偏偏美元在過去三個月的匯價走勢是上升，而且上升速度驚人，可以一口氣使到多種國家貨幣兌美元的幣值跌至 5 年新低、 10 年新低，這內頭是不是正隱含著一個驚人的陰謀？
甚麼陰謀？試想想，如果全球大小炒家眼見美元轉強、紛紛搶購美元，這不正中美國下懷？美國不正正可以利用全球追捧、搶購美元的同時努力印美鈔，賣給這些瘋狂的美元追捧者？這多美好啊，狂印鈔票而不會導致貨幣貶值，那麼，就可以多印一些。等到人們發現到美元供應原來增加的這麼多時，美元匯率可能又突然地一口氣狂瀉，已經太遲了，這群目前追捧美元的人，很可能又是滿手美元蟹貨，不知如何是好。

中國應以美鈔收購資源

現在，人人都說美國經濟衰退、消費減少、石油、銅、鐵 … … 等天然資源的需求會大幅下跌，但是，長遠一點來說， 13 億中國人的消費、 10 億印度人的消費，天然資源的需求不可能長期下跌，也許現在正是中國政府最佳的機會，利用手上大量的美元在收購海外油田、銅礦、鐵礦 … … 從 1971 年美國宣佈放棄金本位之後，美元兌日圓長期下跌，絕不是簡單的所謂日圓斬倉活動而引起的。 1971 年， 1 美元兌 360 日圓，美國可能永遠也沒有機會回復 1971 年時的幣值，因為從 1971 年至今，美元供應的數量太驚人了。美國人印鈔票到全球收購、投資，美國人印鈔票來消費。
但是，相當矛盾的是，全球都擔心美國人不再消費，擔心美國人不再印鈔票來消費。
由多位重量級人物組成的經濟機遇委員會開了第一次會議，特首曾蔭權在會後說會協助推動銀行放鬆借貸。如何推動？美國已兩次減息而香港銀行不追隨，特區政府無計可施，手上現金最多的香港非正式中央銀行匯豐都不願借錢出去，餘者更是有心無力。

曾淵滄
作者為城市大學 MBA 課程主任

2008年11月4日星期二

美元開始轉弱？

外幣升, 金油升, 股市升！

恒指一穿二萬就跌得好急

2008年11月2日星期日

澳洲面對經濟全球化

www.reuters.com 全文

SYDNEY (Reuters) - Media magnate Rupert Murdoch said on Sunday that Australians were poorly prepared to live in a global economy and may "learn the hard way" what it means.

Speaking amid the most severe economic downturn since the Great Depression of the 1930s, Murdoch cited the recent fluctuations in the value of the Australian dollar as evidence of Australia vulnerability to world markets.

The rise of China and India as economic superpowers, each with a new, vast and ambitious middle class, posed special challenges for Australia, and the country would need to adapt.

"Over the next 30 years or so, two or three billion people will join this new global middle class," Murdoch said at the Sydney Opera House. "The world has never seen this kind of advance before. These are people who have known deprivation.

"These are people who are intent on developing their skills, improving their lives and showing the world what they can do. And they live right in Australia's neighborhood."

The Aussie has lost 15 percent this month as investors unwound carry trades and dumped commodity currencies on expectations that a global recession would hurt demand for natural resources. Australia is a big exporter of commodities.

經濟全球化, 玩共產？

www.reuters.com 全文

RIYADH (Reuters) - British Prime Minister Gordon Brown on Sunday called for billions of dollars in extra funding for the International Monetary Fund to prop up struggling economies, while Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said maintaining China's strong domestic growth was his priority.

Leaders from Mumbai to Moscow and Berlin moved to support their own economies on Saturday, with India's central bank cutting interest rates for the second time in two weeks, Russia putting 170 billion roubles ($6.4 billion) into a state bank and German Chancellor Angela Merkel pledging support for a big investment package to boost Europe's largest economy.

Brown, speaking in Riyadh, said oil-producing Gulf States and China should contribute money for the IMF to lend to countries at risk of financial collapse.

"If we are to stop the spread of the financial crisis, we need a better global insurance policy to help distressed economies," Brown said.

Chinese Premier Wen, writing in the ruling Communist Party's ideological journal, warned of growing domestic social risks from a global economic downturn.

"Against the current international financial and economic turmoil, we must must give even greater priority to maintaining our country's steady and relatively fast economic development," Wen wrote.

"We must be crystal-clear that without a certain pace of economic growth, there will be difficulties with employment, fiscal revenues and social development...and factors damaging social stability will grow."

China cut interest rates on Wednesday for the third time in six weeks to help the world's fourth-largest economy ride out the reverberations of the global financial crisis.

In India -- like China, a magnet for foreign investment in recent years as their economies roared -- the central bank on Saturday cut its main lending rate for the second time in as many weeks to ease a cash squeeze and spur economic growth.

INDIA WAS GETTING WORSE

Analysts said the surprise move showed Indian concern that strains on its economy were quickly becoming more severe.

"These actions were necessary (and had) to be taken on the liquidity front...the situation was getting worse," said Vikas Agarwal, a strategist at JP Morgan.

The central bank cut the repo rate, its main short-term lending rate, by 0.5 percentage point to 7.5 percent and banks' cash reserve requirements by 1 percentage point to 5.5 percent.

Policymakers around the world have slashed interest rates in recent weeks and injected huge amounts into their banking systems to try to combat the spillover effects of the global crisis, which has caused credit markets to freeze up and threatens to plunge the world economy into recession.

In Riyadh, Brown said the IMF needed hundreds of billions of dollars to protect struggling economies from the crisis.

2008年11月1日星期六

銀行推銷壽險避談風險

蘋果日報

【本報記者直擊】消費者委員會迄今接獲逾 3,638 宗涉及雷曼迷你債券投訴，炮轟銀行不良銷售手法。本報最近到多間銀行查詢儲蓄計劃，職員已轉為推銷與保險公司掛的儲蓄人壽保險，部份聲稱回報率高達 9 厘，又強調沒有如雷曼倒閉血本無歸的風險。有學者提醒巿民選購該等產品同樣存在風險，輕則供款完結後「都係得番個本」，更甚的是假如保險公司倒閉，客人隨時「乜都冇晒」。　記者：鄧愷欣

記者日前以顧客身份分別往涉及雷曼迷你債券事件的大新、渣打、星展及南洋商業銀行，查詢儲蓄計劃。銀行職員已改為推銷儲蓄人壽保險，受保人供款年期由 3 至 24 年不等。職員聲稱回報率由 3 至 9 厘不等，身故可獲賠償，部份計劃更有退休收入、特別花紅等。

職員又即時向記者索取個人資料，做儲蓄人壽計劃建議書，但未有提及風險問題。記者主動問及保險公司結業會否如雷曼苦主般血本無歸，職員表示：「呢類儲蓄保險好穩陣，保險公司已經有幾百年歷史，可以放心！」
中文大學工商管理學院財務學系副教授蘇偉文指出，銀行以中介人角色為保險公司推銷，保險公司一旦倒閉，顧客同樣會「乜都冇晒」，「情況同雷曼一樣，如果執笠隨時本利冇晒！選購時一定要考慮呢個風險」。而建議書列出的特別紅利、回報利率及回報金額均是假設性，應以保證可得金額作考慮，「就算佢話派 5 厘息，到時派唔到你都冇佢符。供完晒款有可能都係得個本」。
蘇偉文續稱，供款年期也十分重要，如部份銀行計劃的供款年期長達 12 年，供滿 10 年才能回本，「咁即係蝕 10 年息，擺去定期存款都有 20 幾萬啦」。相反，部份 3 年供款 8 年回報的計劃就最快回本。

「唔好睇贏唔睇輸」

國際專業保險諮詢協會會長羅少雄指出，銀行職員推銷產品時趨於報喜不報憂，以求成功簽定合約取得佣金，「只講有幾多回報，唔講風險」。他建議市民在購買時多作比較及查問清楚，「貨比三家，問清楚有乜風險，唔好只睇贏唔睇輸」。

話你知：購個人保險有竅門

銀行推銷個人保險主要分儲蓄人壽、投資相連及純保障三種，巿民必須因應自己的需要選擇。中大工商管理學院財務學系副教授蘇偉文表示，投資相連保險又稱為「 101 」，即投保人身故時會有 101% 賠償，「但如本身冇諗住買保險，只係想投資，選擇投資相連保險就會影響你投資回報」。他說，若本身「上冇高堂下冇妻兒」，毋須選擇含身故賠償的儲蓄人壽，可考慮保障自己的純保障保險。

考慮可承受風險

國際專業保險諮詢協會會長羅少雄表示，購買時要考慮自己可以承受風險、年齡、能力、目的，「如果你本身買好多外匯、股票，咁就唔使買投資相連保險，購買純保障醫療保險好過」。

2008年10月30日星期四

上一浪輸過錢, 才避過呢劫

文匯報

【本報訊】(記者周紹基)光陰似箭，富貴如夢。去年今日（10月30日）是港股最風光的日子，恆指在去年今日到達頂峰，最高曾見31,958點，很多市場人士都唱好港股能夠在未來一年再創新高，上試42,000點。然而，世事豈能盡人意，相信不少投資者，對比愛股一年前的價位，今日都會感觸良多。恆指前幾天曾跌至低見 10,676點，昨日亦只收12,702點，累計暴跌60%，但不少市場人士繼續唱淡，料港股會回落至8,000點水平。港股一年前的市值曾高達 231,970億元，現今只剩85,800億元，蒸發了約146,170億元，以700萬港人計，相當於每人損失208.8萬元。

　藍籌中，33隻股價瀉逾五成，即使穩重如山的大笨象匯控(005)，也跌個四腳朝天，一年之間大跌42%，由高位約150元跌一半見75元，雖然匯控昨回升至86元左右，但市場一致不看好其後市表現，相信該股會繼續尋底，並拖低大市。但是，藍籌中跌幅最勁的，要數中信泰富(267)，該股因炒賣外匯累計期權勁蝕155億元，一年之間勁跌91%。其他類股方面，去年最重傷的便要數內房股、資源股及航運股，跌幅全部都接近90%。

玖龍紙業劇跌96%最傷

　以去年散戶熱炒的富力地產(2777)為例，股價較一年前挫91.8%，「四叔」李兆基持有的碧桂園(2007)，則跌90.7%。資源股方面，中石油(857)跌75.1%，中鋁(2600)跌89.6%，航運股普遍跌八至九成，中遠洋(1919) 跌91.9%，中集運(2866)跌92.8%。不過，要數散戶最深刻之一的，一定是玖龍紙業(2689)，該股一年前由21.15元，跌至0.9元，跌幅足足95.7%，比得上傷透股民心的「8號仔」。

4家公司海嘯中「沒頂」

　金融海嘯襲擊全球，不少公司捱不住要結業，海嘯中「沒頂」公司包括有：恆豐金(870)、佑威(627)、德發（928）、合俊(2700)便要申請清盤，百靈達(2326)內地廠房結業，以上5股皆已停牌，持有的散戶可能要「打定輸數」，股票隨時變廢紙。

中信泰富炒累匯巨虧

　除中信泰富外，不少公司在大市好景時，買入各式各樣的金融投資衍生工具，例如東亞(023)便宣布沽清其手上的信貸抵押債券，勁蝕35億元，該股股價亦由一年前約50元水平，瀉至目前的14.7元，跌幅逾七成。另外，中鐵(390)、中鐵建 (1186)、九龍建業(034)、中國傳動(658)也因累計期權或者掉期產品而錄得虧蝕，令股份急挫，中國傳動更因而停牌至今。

中資股「買貴貨」齊捱沽

　除了投資金融產品失利外，「買貴貨」亦是另一致命傷，不少中資股也宣告「中招」。好像高位入股富通銀行的平保(2318)，入股東亞的中銀(2388)，收購永隆(096)的招行(3968)，近期全面捱沽，平保股價一年跌75.8%，中銀跌58%，招行跌72.9%。

　財散人安樂還好，問題是財散了永無安寧。金融海嘯下，公司倒閉、裁員、減薪、訴訟、索償等衍生問題隨之而來。大批買了雷曼迷你債券的老人家，只是這次金融海嘯下令人欷噓的其中一幕。

非常時期, 非常安排

在金融海嘯中, 人都緊張, 好驚銀行有事, 所以近來一有張單卡數, 就會提早清還, 費事到時 A 銀行追你數而 B 銀行 hold 死你的資金！

這等於 EQ 高定 EQ 低呢？
可能是 IQ 高而 EQ 低吧！ XD !

預防下一浪通賬

驚美元崩盤, 已增加實金, 長線持有人民幣和澳元, 提倉轉名剛買入的中海油！
聽專家說油可以去到 50美元, 所以沒敢大手掃入, 吾知還可否在 4 蚊買到中海油？

今日流動資產賬面回升吾少！
手上美元定期下星期先到期, 會轉回港元等時機再投資！

外幣急升, 金油反彈

中美減息,
恒指現升 1000 點！

2008年10月29日星期三

日元美元回軟

2008年10月28日星期二

股市散戶沒心死

今早沒訓醒, 有位舊客婆婆打電話來, 話在證券行見吾到我同老公, 問間行有無問題, 因為想在依家低位買貨。我只同佢講, 個公司可信, 不過驚就可以買完提貨出來, 一時間吾記得叫佢吾好買貨住, 但佢舊電話打吾通 .........

銀行繼續混人

之前說過我親人買佐掛鉤外幣在 5.9 接佐新西蘭元,
依家銀行又叫佢玩倒掛港元, 就係到位又把新西蘭元轉港元, 說有 20%息！銀行又可以賺一筆！

剛剛才睇完電視中個女人跪地大哭還我血汗錢, 個邊散戶繼續玩掛鉤............

2008年10月27日星期一

恒指終於跌破 12000

收 11015, 成交 568億！睇來 8000 有可能了！
成個下午去佐深圳, 無睇走勢, 但早上落佐盤買佐一些 883, 平均價 4.39 ！
再跌再買！

2008年10月26日星期日

對沖基金重傷

文匯報

在金融海嘯下，全球股市跌勢一發不可收拾，近年如雨後春筍的對沖基金損失不菲，估計今年錄得虧損逾2,000 億美元（約1.56萬億港元）。面對客戶贖回潮和銀行追收貸款，對沖基金被逼不問價沽貨，導致全球股市被「愈質愈低」。經此一役，對沖基金元氣大傷，估計未來數月將有多達三分一從此消失。

　基金界人士本周聚首倫敦出席會議，討論對沖基金業前景。會議瀰漫一片悲觀情緒，多位基金經理均指出，曾被視為「賺錢機器」的對沖基金，在金融海嘯衝擊下遭受重創，今年以來已虧損逾2,000億美元，隨著金融危機深化，預計對沖基金的價值將再下跌三分一或以上。面對股市暴跌、信貸收緊和投資者抽走資金的多重打擊，估計有數以千計對沖基金無法再熬下去，從此在市場上消失。

高峰期控16萬億元

　嘉信理財首席投資策略師桑德斯表示，高峰時期市場上約有1萬隻對沖基金，控制約2萬億美元（約 15.6萬億港元）資產，但不少對沖基金明顯過分擴張。由於對沖基金以承諾高回報吸引客戶，令投資者趨之若鶩，有分析指客戶為減少損失，近期紛紛要求贖回，而銀行亦加緊向對沖基金追收貸款，面對龐大壓力，對沖基金唯有不問價沽貨套現，就連一些優質資產也被逼賤價沽售，導致股市跌勢不止。

投資手法受關注客戶促監管

　由於不少退休基金和保險基金都有投資高風險的對沖基金，基金損手令許多存戶和退休人士血本無歸，對沖基金的投資手法備受關注，要求對沖基金如銀行般納入監管的聲音高漲。美國眾議院監管委員會主席韋斯曼說：「對沖基金是推動全球金融市場發展的重要力量，但我們對於它們的運作方式和產生的風險所知甚少。」他認為對提高對沖基金的透明度和加強監管，對市場更有利。

USDollar Death Dance USDollar Death Dance

Jim Willie CB 全文

FACTORS BEHIND USDOLLAR RALLY

What is pushing the USDollar up cannot be construed as anything remotely resembling healthy factors. In no way whatsoever does it resemble investment. It is more like paid off death contracts, paid off death investments, paid off transfers from toxic US bonds into what are falsely regarded as safer US bonds with a guarantee from a crippled USGovt. Foreign financial entities are liquidating on massive scale. They need a tremendous amount of USDollars in order to complete transactions. Also, a tremendous amount of USDollars are needed for CDSwap payouts as defaulted bonds are resolved. Almost all CDSwap and other credit derivatives are paid out in USDollars. The Lehman Brothers payout was full of lies, again. The Lehman Brothers total volume of corporate bonds was $160 billion, but $400 billion existed in total CDS volume tied to them! It is no surprise that the Dow and S&P500 stock indexes fell hard (by almost 400 points on Dow) and on the Lehman resolution day. And market mavens boasted of no impact on the Lehman funeral date!

The DTCC (Depository Trust & Clearing Corp) reported only a net $5.2 billion payout on the Lehman Brothers failure CDSwap resolution. The ‘Dis-Trust Clearing Corp’ might want to check credit derivative experts who claim between $220 billion and $270 billion in that total after netting. By the way, the DTCC is the official banking entity that oversees all stock clearing overnight, including all the naked shorting. The de-leveraging process has left the central bankers empty handed, exposed as having empty financial cupboards. Thus the need for massive central bank swaps from the USFed, which has perversely farmed out its function to foreigners. In fact, the foreign central banks might be in possession of more US$ inventory items than the USFed. So the US central bank has asked foreign central banks to do its job, and to manage the world reserve currency? This amidst a US$ rally!?!

The Credit Default Swaps are capable of burning Hiroshima holes all over the US financial system, resulting in USEconomic implosion from eliminated bank and financial system structures almost entirely. The process has only begun, but in darkness. The other purpose for big bailouts was to prevent CDSwap explosions, risking a string of bombs to go off. The key aspect of CDSwap contracts is their hidden nature, with fuses intersecting in the dark.

When the market mavens talk about the de-leverage process, they refer to speculative investments being liquidated. Oftentimes, they do not include in the story how Wall Street firms, desperate to stave off bankruptcy, are targeting viciously their own clients. The big accounts lie in hedge funds, where the private wealthy are being decimated. Credit is being pulled. Margin calls are being delivered. Margin ratios are being raised. Those funds whose positions are aligned with the predators on Wall Street continue in their investment portfolios. Those funds in opposition are attacked with artillery, carpet bombs, and early morning raids. The USDollar is rallying amidst this type of sinister liquidation. The result has been numerous spread trades anchored by the USTreasury Bond are forced into sale. That means a USTBond buyback occurs from the short cover on the trade. Whether a spread on mortgage bonds, corporate bonds, emerging market bonds, or crude oil, or gold, the trade is liquidated, and a USTBond is bought back. NO TANGIBLE END DEMAND, ONLY USTREASRY BOND SHORT COVERS. This is the basis for a US$ rally?

WORSENING US$ FUNDAMENTALS

How many times have we seen the US stock market go down, non-government bond yields rise, the USDollar rise, and the USTBond yields fall? That has been the norm in the last few weeks. These are death signals, not investment signals. The USEconomy cannot afford liquidation and constricted credit, a well-known fact, seemingly forgotten today. These signals come amidst falling confidence, more bank distress measures, more job loss, more home foreclosures, and lately, trouble with letters of credit at port facilities.

Financial markets, including the USDollar, have yet to factor in the deep USEconomic recession. The USDollar rally flies in the face of deteriorating fundamentals. See job cut announcements at Caterpillar, Merrill Lynch, General Motors, Chrysler, several Wall Street firms including Goldman Sachs today. Weekly jobless claims at close to half a million per week, equal to peak during the unrecognized 2001 recession. See the UMichigan consumer sentiment, Philly Fed index, Empire Fed index, leading economic indicators, durable goods orders, on and on. Retail sales, the backbone of the backwards USEconomy, are plummeting. That is, the plummet is before inflation price adjustments. Car sales are plummeting also.

Exports are to be worse from the higher US$ exchange rate on the table, combined with slower foreign economies. The improved export trade has been a big boast from the lunatics running the asylum. The USEconomy is accelerating in its decline, certain to produce a recession and huge USGovt deficits. That deficit is likely to at least double and possible quadruple next year. USTreasury Bond issuance cannot conceivably finance all, or at least half, of the commitments. The printing press will do the rest, which will cut down the US$ valuation. The USDollar decline lies ahead, when the distortions slow or come to an end. Gold will soar on the other side of this liquidation.

An extreme backlash attack is coming against the USDollar. Rising import prices in foreign economies have already caused alarm. Foreigners will soon attack the US$ in a matter of time, using heavy US$-based reserves. Their banking sectors are in disarray, primarily because they are intimately tied to the US$ and USTBonds. The process has begun with Brazil and Mexico in Latin America, to use their strong reserves and sell into this queer US$ strength. That is what reserves are for. The process will spread to other nations.

GOLD MARKET CLOSE TO BREAKING

The gap between the physical gold market and paper gold market is widening. An example bears this out. In Toronto this week, a major off-market gold transaction took place. The price paid was $1075 per ounce on the physical transaction. Its volume was in the multi-million$. There was no US involvement in the transaction, and the settlement was in euros. Enormous repositioning is ongoing by the groups that will participate in the new, partially gold-backed currency. My take is this movement is from a large financial entity with global activity, and ties to central banks. It might be tied to the upcoming split in the euro, into a Nordic Euro and trashed Latin Euro. The Nordic version might contain a gold component. This and other transactions are taking place with European settlement. They are being satisfied in the alternative market, far from the distortions of COMEX. This was a physical transaction with the real metal being moved. Big shifts occur behind the scenes. A couple of months ago, 400 metric tonnes were moved into storage with the Royal Canadian Mint by a sovereign entity.

The more massive the paper manipulation, the more violent the coming correction. The asylum managers are losing control of their paper-physical arbitrage. Watch the gold lease rates, and silver lease rates, which have each more than tripled in the last two months. Lease rates precede price movement. Bullion bankers, including central banks, are reluctant to lease their physical supply. This time is no different, an event to come after the COMEX criminality is swept aside, or simply overwhelmed in return. One well-informed source, with over two decades of gold market experience, actually expects arrests to take place among COMEX officials before long.

NEW BRETTON WOODS II FARCE

Last weekend in Brussels, G8 Finance Ministers met. Among other things, they discussed a reform to the global banking structures. For the many challenged on geography, that city is in Belgium, headquarters for many European Union functions, in Western Europe. Creditors were not present, which means the finance ministers were talking to themselves. Credit masters were not invited. The nations whose banking systems are in the process of implosion are essentially attempting to revise the global currency system. Those in attendance constitute the losers! However, the Arabs and Chinese were not present. This seems entirely backwards. The bankrupt nations do not dictate to the creditors terms of a revised agreement.

Imagine a large business saying the following. “We are bankrupt. We want a meeting. We are going to dictate to you bankers anyway. We are broke. Our economies are shattered. Our banking systems are in ruins. But we going to tell you how we are to restructure our debt and rework a new system. We realize our debts to you are bigger than we can ever repay. We realize we cannot continue in commerce without your continued extended credit. But we will force upon you a new system. It does not matter what your opinion is. You do not have a seat on this elite committee, sorry!” THIS FLOW IS NOT FROM THE WORLD OF REALITY!

No! Bankruptcy receivership is next, where creditors will be left with few options. They will be compelled to run management committees, and dissolve many functions of government. Creditors will probably await the G8 initiative, then summarily reject it. They will next propose their own new global financial structure. The teenager’s credit card is about to be taken away, when the irresponsible kid proposes a new repayment system, new promises, new chores done even. The kid has burned down half the neighborhood, yet thinks he can call the shots! Sadly, the parents will probably ground him and force a tutor to direct his studies, and force a strict drill sergeant to direct his work activities. His friends will not be permitted to form new teams that include him. A ‘Post-US World’ is being planned, and Americans are the last to know. Entire new barter systems between a key pair of nations is about to be launched. Regional bond and commodity organizations are being formed, with exclusion of the US. The US press reports nothing on these important developments.

Foreign creditors will form new committees, which will be recognized in time as the Receivership Committee. Foreigners are watching in horror. Decisions have already been made, with Americans the last to know. In order to arrest the cancer they so clearly see, they are ready to force a complete upheaval. The USDollar will lose its global currency status, a thoroughly abused privilege. The above lack of disclosure only reinforces their motive to take action. They will move when they must, upon a system failure, or when they are challenged, or when flimsy attempts by debtors are made to dictate reform.

Without any changes forthcoming soon, the foreign banking systems and economies face huge threats to failure. To friends, family, and contacts, my approach has been to attempt to explain the underlying forces behind revolutionary financial change. Foreigners must cut off a cancerous body part, the one attached to the United States. Foreigners must cut off flow from a toxic systemic organ, the one attached to the United States. CUT IT OFF OR RISK DEATH. They must disconnect of USDollar from the global currency system attached intimately to their own financial and economic systems. They must to survive.

ARAB GOALS & MOTIVES

Arabs clearly lust to control and manage a global gold trading center. It will be in Dubai in the United Arab Emirates. The new Gulf dinar currency will pave the road to that center. The Gulf Coop Council is biding time, cutting time delay deals, warding off pressure by the USGovt, appeasing with weapons contracts from the USMilitary, and is working behind the scenes to create a new dinar currency. The new Gulf dinar is likely to be primarily gold in its backing. So, foreign nations will soon be forced to purchase the dinar for all or most of crude oil payments. This forces the purchase of gold in order to purchase crude oil. The demand for gold will thus fortify the global banking system, by means of commodity settlements. Many details are unknown, but the basic structure has been slowly come to light. A new motive flashes red in front of Arabs to institute some changes FAST. The crude oil price is down, cut in half from July. Their revenues are sharply reduced. Russia figures into the complex deal to launch the dinar. The Saudis and small sheikdoms need security protection. The next chapter will involve protection amidst a gold-backed currency, not a military-backed currency, in Saudi eyes.

ISOLATED USTREASURYS

The other side to the Arab dilemma is that the USTreasury Bond demand is quickly eroding from Petro-dollar recycle on trade surplus. The USGovt finds itself as relying far too much on foreign central banks for demand of USTBonds, relying far too much soon on the printing press. The USTBond demand is missing the oil surplus in recycle. Their reduced and unstable oil revenue motivates the Arabs to install a new payment system, based upon an end to the ugly defacto Petro-dollar standard. It shamefully is the basis of what my analysis has called a Protection Racket.

The incredible fact evident in the data is that until mid-September, the US Federal Reserve has drained liquidity from the US private banking system in order to offset its colossal bond swap bailouts for major Wall Street and New York money center banks. Their objective was to avoid undue US$ money supply growth. THEY WERE TARGETING GOLD. They essentially drained the lifeblood from the USEconomy on Main Street in order to subsidize fraud sanctioned and approved on Wall Street. Only since mid-September has the USFed been monetizing USTBond debt issuance. They are running scared, printing with abandon. The gold price is falling as the USDollar printing press is rapidly heating up, no longer offset by bank system drains. Details are in the Hat Trick Letter report.

The next big shoe to drop is credit cards. Bank of America has announced plans, not yet fully implemented, to cut back on credit cards to lower FICO scorers. The lower 60%-ile of credit score recipients will find themselves without credit cards at all. One friend told me that he used to own 10 credit cards. Recently, all but four were simply discontinued, but a few were not used. Other friends said most of their credit limits were slashed. Changes are coming. Then the next big shoe to drop will be commercial mortgage default. No reprieve, rest, or respite for US bankers. Changes are coming. It will force defaults in most every conceivable financial corner.

2008年12月27日 星期六

2008年12月26日 星期五

2008年12月24日 星期三

2008年12月22日 星期一

油 價 可 望 守 穩 40 美 元

金 價 升 有 利 南 非 蘭 特

東亞擠提 催生「全保制」

2008年12月20日 星期六

2008年12月19日 星期五

2008年12月17日 星期三

2008年12月16日 星期二

2008年12月15日 星期一

2008年12月8日 星期一

2008年12月5日 星期五

英 息 降 1 厘 歐 破 格 減 0.75 厘

澳 紐 ： 未 來 減 幅 將 收 窄

各 地 央 行 今 年 利 率 變 化

瑞 典 抗 悠 長 苦 澀 寒 冬

印 尼 顯 現 防 衰 退 決 心

新 西 蘭 盼 走 出 最 壞 時 代

英 國 零 息 年 代 漸 逼 近

歐 元 區 減 幅 過 大 釀 危 機

2008年12月4日 星期四

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2008年11月28日 星期五

2008年11月27日 星期四

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2008年11月8日 星期六

2008年11月7日 星期五

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中 國 應 以 美 鈔 收 購 資 源

2008年11月4日 星期二

2008年11月2日 星期日

2008年11月1日 星期六

「 唔 好 睇 贏 唔 睇 輸 」

話 你 知 ： 購 個 人 保 險 有 竅 門

考 慮 可 承 受 風 險

2008年10月30日 星期四

2008年10月29日 星期三

2008年10月28日 星期二

2008年10月27日 星期一

2008年10月26日 星期日

2008年12月27日星期六

2008年12月26日星期五

2008年12月24日星期三

2008年12月22日星期一

油價可望守穩 40 美元

金價升有利南非蘭特

東亞擠提催生「全保制」

2008年12月20日星期六

2008年12月19日星期五

2008年12月17日星期三

2008年12月16日星期二

2008年12月15日星期一

2008年12月8日星期一

2008年12月5日星期五

英息降 1 厘歐破格減 0.75 厘

澳紐：未來減幅將收窄

各地央行今年利率變化

瑞典　抗悠長苦澀寒冬

印尼　顯現防衰退決心

新西蘭　盼走出最壞時代

英國　零息年代漸逼近

歐元區　減幅過大釀危機

2008年12月4日星期四

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中國應以美鈔收購資源

2008年11月4日星期二

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「唔好睇贏唔睇輸」

話你知：購個人保險有竅門

考慮可承受風險

2008年10月30日星期四

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