2009年3月31日 星期二
白手興家
好多人只睇到人地成就的一面, 但辛酸苦難的日子, 又有誰會知 ?
我父母都是在南洋出生, 結婚時好窮; 我媽媽嫁入去時要同家公家婆一齊住, 還有成班弟妹(九兄弟姐妹), 我祖母又掛住日日打牌,因為我爸爸是大仔, 要拿起照顧弟妹的責任! 我媽媽要為成家人煮飯洗衫(用手洗, 因為無洗衣機), 有身孕時一樣要做家務無人幫手搞到小產。 後來我父母借了爸爸舅父的錢買了一架貨車做運輸, 才慢慢建起間運輸公司, 也買自置物業, 建起個小家庭。 點知好景不常, 因為印尼攻退荷蘭的管置, 我地去了荷蘭, 須要從頭來過 !在荷蘭, 爸爸做過工廠, 做過修車, 後來儲到錢才開餐館, 所以我個時要幫爸媽慳錢, 須踩單車去有特價品的商店買食物日常用品, 幾遠都要去 ! 我長高了需要換成人單車, 叫爸媽買新單車俾我, 好開心咁期待, 點知買的是二手單車, 我傷心的哭了三天 ! 爸媽做生意, 我就要照顧弟妹(又係九兄弟姐妹), 因為我是大女, 最後還要去餐館幫手, 一邊讀書, 一邊幫屋企 !
我結婚時, 我老公是個窮小子; 我地住在我爸媽開的其中一間餐館樓上的一間房中, 約 300呎, 又是睡房又是客廳又是煮食的地方 ! 我在樓下餐館幫手, 得到的是當時的最低工資 600荷盾, 我老公就去佐最忙的一間餐館做 waiter, 除佐最低工資還可以分到客的打償 !後來我在諗, 唔可以咁做落去, 打死一世工, 所以一有機會, 有個新開的商場想開中印式的商店, 我就對我爸爸說我想做, 所以爸爸幫我當擔保人去銀行借錢開店, 而我老公也借佐佢有錢姐夫一筆錢 ! 以後我兩公婆齊合力做生意儲錢才有今時今日的成就 !
剛結婚度蜜月, 老公帶我返香港佢屋企, 第一眼我以為我入佐間車房, 一路等佢帶我上樓, 點知個個就係佢父母成個家了 ! 之後我幫佐佢無錢家姐同弟弟開店做生意, 得到我家婆的歡心, 成日讚我又靚女又善良 !
我要說的是, 每一個人都可以由無做到有, 只要你有心機和毅力 !
(專寫俾我仔女和弟妹睇的 !)
2009年3月25日 星期三
2009年3月24日 星期二
The Case for Inflation
Inflation is always a monetary phenomenon. Since the printing press, it has in all times and in all places been the inevitable consequence of creating large amounts of money, not backed by any commodity, such as gold.
Now we are in a period of deflation, with falling prices. Government will do what it feels it has to do to fight deflation, because deflation is synonymous with depression, like in the 1930s. But the only way they know how to solve a problem like this is to throw money at it. The amounts are in the trillions; nothing is like it in all of history.
If all of this newly created money does not cause inflation, it will be the first time in the history of fiat money that inflation has not resulted. Based on the lessons of history, that’s the way to bet.
One of the natural consequences of a dominant world-wide currency, like the dollar, being created in vast quantities, is that the dollar will fall versus other currencies. The irony is that right now the dollar is rising against other world currencies. That only means the dollar is the healthiest patient in the hospital. Why? Other currencies are the early victims of the inflationary plague.
You Americans who earn and spend only dollars will soon see the natural consequences of inflation, which are rising dollar prices.
When will we begin to see the consequence of monetary inflation; broad-based price inflation?
I was on CNBC recently, and they asked me to tell them when this was going to happen. I told them I didn’t have my crystal ball, and the best way to become a fallen prophet was to set a date for something like that and get it wrong. I’m too old and smart to do that. I did give my best guess, which is some place between six months to a year, when trillions of dollars we are creating are no longer sitting silently on the balance sheets of banks but start circulating. That’s when the real inflation starts.
What Will It Look Like?
What will the inflationary world look like?
Gasoline and other oil-derivative prices will start rising. Oil will go back above $145 eventually. Sometime within the next year you will see oil at $75 to $80 per barrel, which will put gasoline prices back under $5. Food will get more expensive.
That’s my best guess; it is not an exact science. You are relying on my experience and instincts to be right more often than I’m wrong.
The stock market is in its death throes, and the dollar will soon be in its death throes, when the Chinese, the Indians, and the Japanese stop buying U.S. paper. Now it seems to be recovering. But that is a temporary phenomenon and eventually the dollar will implode, leaving the world knee-deep in a failed currency, as it has always done throughout history.
Does history always have to repeat itself? No, of course not. But that is the way to bet. All the factors are in place, including a President and a Congress that have no compunction against creating unlimited amounts of dollars and spending them through the banking system. This is sheer madness and makes Obama perhaps the most dangerous president the United States has ever had.
His ignorance of economic principles is monumental, equaled only by his arrogance in pursuing this destructive course.
I’m sorry if you don’t like my politics and because I haven’t joined the ranks of those who have been infected by Obama-mania. I just hope I will live long enough to see the day when we will return to some level of sanity. But that sanity will not include the recovery of the dollar as a store of value.
Some day we will need a new currency backed by a fixed commodity. I don’t know what form it will take, but the market will speak and create a new piece of paper that has some tangible anchoring.
In the meantime, the world as we knew it is dying and the dollar is beginning its death throes, regardless of the current daily price of the dollar versus other currencies. When we get sick, the rest of the world gets pneumonia. We will probably attempt to make the euro the reigning world currency (perhaps even the yen), but that is only a temporary stop-gap.
In the meantime, precious metals are an insurance policy that preserves the value of your assets. You can offset the failure of your paper dollars by putting about a third of your assets into precious metals, preferably silver.
By Howard Ruff2009年3月23日 星期一
"gold parties"
biz.yahoo.com全文
Americans strike gold by selling their jewelry at "gold parties" during deepening recession
Guests say getting together with friends in somebody's living room makes it a fun, social occasion, and feels more respectable than hocking their rings, necklaces and brooches at seedy pawn shops or selling them back to jewelry stores.
"It's terrific because it's a little bit intimidating to think about walking into a jewelry store, even though they may be heavily advertising it, and, you know, to someone that you don't know and turning over your valuables to them," said Pat Walsh, a 56-year-old retired store manager from Simsbury, Connecticut.
In front of the guests, Percival uses a jeweler's magnifying loupe to assess the gold, a digital meter to test whether it is real, and an electronic scale to weigh it.
At Podgorski's party, women laughed as they narrated stories behind their jewelry, which included gifts from ex-husbands and boyfriends who no longer inspired fond memories, 1960s cocktail rings that a man gave to his wife before they divorced, and a souvenir from a high school trip to Russia.
"Somebody at a party last week had a pre-engagement ring from her boyfriend before her husband, and her 14-year-old daughter wanted the ring, and she said, `If your father ever saw you with that ring on you, he'd kill me,' so she sold it," Percival said.
The gold-buying services typically are not interested in the jewelry itself. Instead, they sell the items to gold refiners to be melted down.
The gold party host and gold buyer generally get a 10 percent cut. Podgorski made $300 at her party, which she said she donated to a charity she runs that provides free prom dresses to high school girls who cannot afford one.
Alona Bloom, a 34-year-old mother of two and a teacher's assistant in Pittsburgh, recently sold old jewelry at a friend's gold party. Bloom thought she would leave with $100 but walked out with $700.
Now, she is now working to organize her own party to earn the 10 percent commission. She would like at least 10 sellers but has found just eight so far.
"A lot of people have already sold their gold," Bloom said.
2009年3月22日 星期日
The Federal Reserve: The Greatest Scam in History
We first posted this article on 13th August 2007 when it appeared to us that the US Dollar along with the economy was heading into such dangerous waters that gold would be the beneficiary. At the time gold was trading at around $670/oz and it closed yesterday at $960 for a gain of $290 or 43.2%. Yesterday was the first time that we have seen the ‘C‘ word used as the Federal Reserve announced that it would be buying back $300 billion in longer-term Treasuries in order to assist the economic recovery. This move to buy these Treasuries is regarded by many as a last resort or a sign of panic as the turmoil in the financial markets reaches a crisis point.
Gold was languishing at the $890/oz level just prior to the announcement and then within the hour it rocketed to the $950/oz level as the news of the Feds action spread. Whether it be an article on Market Watch or a mention on the BBC World Service, news travels fast these days to every corner of the planet and investors react accordingly with startling results. A new government and a New Fed, not really, just more of the same but in increasingly larger doses. Todays action will turn out to be a defining moment for the US Dollar and recorded by historians as the beginning of its demise. Unfortunately the worst is yet to come so steel yourself for a force ten storm.
On 4th October 2008 we updated our original essay with the following excerpts;
If we fast forward to time now and read any newspaper the headlines are dominated with the fire fighting actions being implemented by the Federal Reserve with bankers and politicians in tow. From these bailouts we can only conclude that the dilution of paper money will continue with the pace of dilution accelerating, resulting in massive inflation and propelling the precious metals to higher ground. If you have the time, please read this article and then take a look at what’s happening around you and then find the time to question what you are doing and why you are doing it. Being too busy to organise your own affairs is a poor excuse. Just switch the television off for a couple of nights and clear your head, the way forward for you personally will become apparent.
The Federal Reserve: The Greatest Scam In History?
This is the original essay posted on 13th August 2007
The Federal Reserve was created in 1913-1914 in order to bring stability to the economy and yet almost every major crash, including the great depression, can be attributed to the Federal Reserve.
We are going to take a look at the history of the Fed and what prominent historical figures have said about the organisation.
Firstly, from 1837-1862 there was a system of national banks in the USA but then in 1913-1914 a consortium of 12 privately held banks got together and formed the Federal Reserve Bank, an entity that is not part of the US government. These banks then purchased notes from the US Mint for printing costs and lent them out through member banks charging interest.
The Federal Reserve came into being after its supporters paid for the Presidential campaign of US President Woodrow Wilson. Wilson signed the bill that transferred the US currency to twelve regional private banks Wilson regretted his decision later saying:
“I am a most unhappy man. I have unwittingly ruined my country. A great industrial nation is controlled by its system of credit. Our system of credit is concentrated. The growth of the nation, therefore, and all our activities are in the hands of a few men. We have come to be one of the worst ruled, one of the most completely controlled and dominated governments in the civilized world. No longer a government by free opinion, no longer a government by conviction and the vote of the majority, but a government by the opinion and duress of a small group of dominant men.”
In 1933 President Roosevelt confiscated citizens gold and handed it to the Federal Reserve. At the very moment when Americans have needed to protect their wealth the most, the best store of wealth ever created, gold, was confiscated from American citizens and given to a un-elected conglomerate of private banks.
When the bill for the Federal Reserve was being considered, some brave politicians spoke out against its creation calling it “the strangest, most dangerous advantage ever placed in the hands of a special privilege class by any Government that ever existed” and Congressman Victor Murdock said, “I do not blind myself to the fact that this measure will not be effectual as a remedy for a great national evil – the concentrated control of credit.”
It even appears that one of the most important and most respected figures in American history disagrees with the Federal Reserve saying, “If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered.”
Jefferson also said, “I sincerely believe the banking institutions having the issuing power of money are more dangerous to liberty than standing armies”
“Paper is poverty… it is only the ghost of money, and not money itself.”
The Federal Reserve make no secret about the scam they are running as the Boston section of the Federal Reserve Bank said:
“When you or I write a check there must be sufficient funds in our account to cover the cheque, but when the Federal Reserve writes a check there is no bank deposit on which that cheque is drawn. When the Federal Reserve writes a cheque, it is creating money.”
Perhaps the Fed can create money, but we strongly believe that wealth cannot be created. Wealth is simply transferred, it is not created and we challenge anyone to prove otherwise. The only time wealth was created was when the world was created, with all its resources, true wealth. So why hasn’t the Federal Reserve been disbanded?
Well as the Rothschild Brothers of London said in 1863; “The few who understand the system, will either be so interested from it’s profits or so dependant on it’s favours, that there will be no opposition from that class.”
The great Henry Ford once said “It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning.”
The problem is, very few people understand the system at all. It is not taught in schools and even some of the most prominent financial analysts and fund managers really have no idea how the system works. They tend to define inflation as rising prices when in fact inflation occurs because of the expansion of the money supply. Or even link inflation with the economy doing well, saying, “we should raise interest rates as the economy did extremely well this month and we don’t want inflation getting out of hand”, or words to that effect.
What all people, not just investors, need to understand is that paper money is worthless. Gold and precious metals are the real money, the real wealth that cannot be created like its paper ghost.
Gold has been telling us for sometime that all is not well so listen up and put at least a small part of your wealth into precious metals or their associated stocks. Discipline is about to return to a screen near you.
美國會否將來發生革命 ?
在發生革命之前, 美國可能會返去牛仔時代, 就係一團糟 !
如有親人在美國, 最好叫佢地快些走 !
www.rightsidevalue.com全文
Celente says that by 2012 America will become an undeveloped nation, that there will be a revolution marked by food riots, squatter rebellions, tax revolts and job marches, and that holidays will be more about obtaining food, not gifts.
The prospect of revolution was a concept echoed by a British Ministry of Defence report last year, which predicted that within 30 years, the growing gap between the super rich and the middle class, along with an urban underclass threatening social order would mean, "The world's middle classes might unite, using access to knowledge, resources and skills to shape transnational processes in their own class interest," and that, "The middle classes could become a revolutionary class."
2009年3月21日 星期六
金甲蟲好文
糟老頭再 9up 寫:... . 由大鱷, 令我想起大鱷的守護神 Fed 和 DT.
有 個很奇怪的現象, 就是 Fed 和 DT 絕少提及 Gold. ( 印象中只有多年前 Greenspan 承認過金價被操控 -- 央行睇住金價, 當佢係「曱由」咁黎打; 同埋 Greenspan 被 Ron Paul 逼 問, 不得不答 "In extremis ,,,," 嗰一次 ).
和一般報紙上的「投資專家」不同, Fed & DT 籠斷 fiat money system, 黃金本來係 fiat money 既死敵, 點解佢地咁客氣, 冇公開出口術去踩金; 而係 stay neutral ? 喱樣野可能暗藏玄機.
好多人話美元會見底回升, 愚見以為, 這是 contrarianism for its own sake, 為一士諤諤而一士諤諤, 而昧於客觀事實 :
1. 不要聽那些競選政客甜言蜜語, 美國軍事開支有增無减. 只要世界一日要用石油, 美國一日都要駐重兵在中東中亞. 近年俄羅斯國力大增, Czar Putin 甚致夠膽派空軍飛越西方 母艦/ 領空. 此情此境, 你說美方的軍備軍費會慢下來嗎 ?
2. 美國 babyboomers 已到退休年齡, 未來 Medicare/Social Security 開支以 Trillions 計.
3. Derivatives Debacle : 自07 年8月 Subprime 爆發至今, 美國約已 泵水 ~ 1 Trillion. 不要忘記, 中國人死做爛做那麼多年, 到舊年才有 1 Trillion 儲備, 人家大筆一揮, 半年就印了出來. 但 Derivatives 困局有排未散, 有消息指 Fed & DT 可能會起用 Resolution Trust Corp 之類物體 , 如同 1989 年拯救 Savings and Loan 般賣起那些有問題按揭.
看好美元見底回升的好友, 請問又有甚麼實質理據 ? ( 除了甚麼玄之又玄的甚麽「物極必反」、「多數人會睇錯」、「老美功力深厚, 深不可測」 . . .. . )
其實有的. 在 race to the bottom ( 各國貨幣鬥快貶值以利出口 ) , 可能未必每段都係老美跑嬴.
不斷貶值, 可幫美國解决很多問題, 多年行之有效. 唯一要忌, 就是外國人頂唔順佢不停貶值, 拉隊離塲, 則美國喪 失world reserve currency 這隻生金蛋的鵝.
到時, 又有甚麼法寶令外國人回心轉意呢 ?
加息. 再加 :
A return to Gold standard.
到時, 海外美元持有人又可以如當年戴高樂般, 將 $ 換回 Gold, 則美元地位又再重生矣. 美國境內美元則無此優惠, 此「一國兩幣」也. http://www.inv168.com/phpBB2/viewtopic. ... F4#1067503
海 外美元數目不詳, 但一定數以 Trillion 計, 以之除以美國黃金庫存 261 Million OZ ( guessimate ) , 得出過萬元一安士, 即是美國可能會令美元不斷貶值, 黄金一路升值, 直至金價去到一個階段, 令美國藏金價值可以 cover 海外美元, 到時重回「金本位」 ( for overseas Dollars ) 才有 credibility.
當然, 未到比 target, Fed/DT 就要預早出手, 可能未到一半就要出手, 否則 free fall 起來, 神仙難救.
既然黄金可以有此後着, 可能便是 Fed & DT 本身從來不說黃金壞話的原因.
2009年3月20日 星期五
銀行博懵 敏感資料變附注
會計人士指出,銀行部分敏感財務資料常在「損益表」往後翻幾頁,譬如「可供出售」金融資產就藏身在「股東權 益」中,只不過一般投資者不知要去查閱這條數。如匯控(0005)08年全年業績中文摘要,匯控的盈虧情況可於第18頁的「綜合收益表」,而「可供出售」 影響的股東權益則在第21頁「綜合確認收支表」中的首項。
投資者難察覺
此外,銀行依據新會計準則作出的資產重新分類以及「可供出售」金融資產的潛在風險一般在業績貌似極 不重要的附注內容,譬如渣打08中英文版業績第54頁的「附注(續)」就為其去年將資產重新分類的情況,而匯控的相關資料只可於英文版的第146中找到, 「可供出售」金融資產的撥備資料則分別見於英文版的第65、148、149及436頁。
2009年3月19日 星期四
歐美大賭場
文匯報全文
美國國際集團(AIG)獲得政府打救,但資金卻因之前種下的投機禍根而隨處亂流。美國《華爾街日報》揭露,救 助AIG的資金中,有520億美元花在與樓市相關的對賭上,其中部分可能流向押注樓市下跌的對沖基金,這意味著華府忙於提振樓市之際,部分公帑卻變相「獎 勵」押注樓市泡沫爆破的投機者,可謂極大諷刺。
報道引述一名消息人士指出,至少一家大型銀行——德意志銀行擔當了AIG與對沖基金的中介人。對沖 基金與德意志對賭樓市前景,德意志通過複雜金融操作將風險轉嫁AIG,後者為此預留託管資金,若按揭違約飆升至設定水平,AIG預留的託管資金將會用作償 還德意志銀行,後者再賠償對沖基金。
對賭耗費逾4,000億公帑
又是 Accumulator 累事
【本報北京新聞中心記者海巖16日電】星展銀行與內地私人銀行客戶的Accumulator合約(期權合約) 糾紛近日全面升級,暴露出素被稱為「富豪殺手」的金融衍生品禍延內地的冰山一角。北京市大成律師事務所高級合夥人肖金泉今日向本報表示,星展銀行一些內地 客戶在不知情的情況下購買Accumulator,不僅蝕光上千萬元本金,更欠下銀行巨款並被起訴追討,其中個別客戶損失甚至逾億元。目前,星展銀行已向 中國境內法院提起訴訟,正式起訴北京地區的多位客戶,要求其承擔對星展銀行相關債權的擔保責任。
內地多家傳媒包括新華網今日均引述肖金泉表示,早在去年底,不少內地客戶即接到星展銀行(香港)有限公司發出的催款通知單,要求其在收到催款通知單之日起10日內還款。
星展遞狀高院 告粵客拖欠款
韓國民眾「捐金救國」成佳話
1997年亞洲金融風暴期間,韓國亦是四小龍中受創最重者,外債高漲到幾近破產的窘境。當年的11月11日,韓國的外匯存底僅剩下慘不忍睹的38.4億美元,而兩周後需要償還的外債就達100億美元。再加上當時韓國從外國輸入生活必需的糧食,一年也需要120億美元外匯。雖然國際貨幣基金組織願意提供570億美元的資金紓困,但韓國人視之為奇恥大辱,當地報紙甚至用「槍架在脖子上」來形容當時危急的局勢,並呼籲民眾一齊施以援手。
共捐黃金達10億美元
韓國民眾亦沒有讓國際看扁,很快在各間銀行門口大排長龍,主動捐獻黃金和美元給國家,換取政府公債。有些人幾乎傾其所有,連金銀首飾、器皿都沒有留下。最終統計,200多萬韓國人共捐出黃金總額高達10億美元,成功幫助政府穩定了韓圜幣值,並較早迎來復甦,舉國上下努力,共同渡過了經濟危機。
2009年3月15日 星期日
Demand for gold coins soaring
The Royal Canadian Mint, which produces Maple Leaf bullion coins, said it quadrupled its production capacity late last year as demand for gold and silver bullion products leapt.
Gold is being driven by concern about the financial system and lack of confidence in paper currencies,” said Adrian Day, the president of Adrian Day’s Asset Management in Annapolis, Maryland. “All the pressure is on the upside.”
The United States Mint said sales of its one-ounce American Eagle gold bullion coins rocketed to 710,000 ounces in 2008, from 140,000 ounces a year before.
"The demand for gold and silver has been unprecedented," a spokesman for the Mint told Reuters.
The chairman of the French Mint, Christophe Beaux, said sales roughly doubled last year in value terms and are expected to rise by another 50% this year.
The 2009 catalog the mint had produced was almost entirely pre-sold, he said. The French Mint produces 100 euro gold coins, and plans to mint 10-ounce and 1-kilo coins this year.
In South Africa, the world's third-largest gold producer, Natanya van Niekerk, deputy general manager for numismatics at the South African Mint Company, said she had seen a big increase in demand for gold.
"I think we will see this same trend in this and the next quarter," she said. "Gold surely has been resilient in these times."
Michael O'Kane, head bullion trader at the New Zealand Mint, said many overseas buyers had come into the New Zealand market. "We're seen as a safe-haven market," he said.
He said buying had been strong since the collapse of US investment bank Lehman Brothers in September, as investors moved money from banks into hard assets like gold.
金融海嘯中誰賺錢 ?
能夠成為金融「先知」,自然能夠跑贏大市,當中排名從第九十七位躍升至二十九位的國際大炒家索羅斯(Geroge Soros)就是當中的表表者,估計他的身家由九十億美元增加至一百一十億,上漲二十億美元。
現年七十八歲的索羅斯在二○○七年重出江湖,旗下量子基金大手造淡倉,當年基金升值三成二。他去年預測對沖基金業的資產將大幅縮減五成至七成半,但揚言其基金的回報正面發展。
被譽為○八年最賺錢的對沖基金經理保爾森(John Paulson),排名則由三百六十八位急升至第七十六位,估計身家由三十億美元增加一倍至六十億美元。
當去年標普五百指數下跌三成九,他的基金Paulson Advantage市值卻逆市上漲三成八。
五十三歲的保爾森被譽為總能在最適當時機平倉獲利,他在○五年已預測美國經濟將陷入衰退,要求旗下職員尋找「泡沫」沽空。他○七年初透過對賭美國房市崩盤,個人進帳達三十五億美元。
保爾森去年轉戰英國,沽空英國萊斯銀行集團(Loyds Banking Group)和HBOS,獲利三億鎊(約三十三億港元)。去年,保爾森的旗艦基金回報率達三成八,反觀整個對沖基金業平均虧損一成九。
另一逆市梟雄是富豪榜排名第三十五位的兼併大王佩雷爾曼(Ronald Perelman),估計其身家達一百億美元。他的驚人之舉包括在○二年將金州銀行集團(Golden State Bancorp)以六十億美元,出售給花旗集團。花旗集團股價在過去一年下挫九成半,但佩雷爾曼稱早已沽清股份。
美國人換現金度日 黃金假牙也變賣
面臨金融海嘯衝擊,許多人手頭愈來愈緊,美國最近就掀起一股賣黃金、求現金的熱潮,包括金戒指、金手錶、甚至連黃金做的假牙,也被人拿去變現,日子真的有這麼難過嗎?
經濟不景氣,手頭缺現金的民眾,或許可以考慮賣黃金、求現金,不知道是不是受到電視廣告的影響,美國民眾最近的確開始瘋著賣黃金。
金手錶、金戒指、金項鍊,甚至連嘴裡的金牙都可以拿來賣,不過要是連陶瓷做的假牙也想濫竽充數,會不會太超過?
根據目前行情,一顆金牙大概可以賣美金45元,約台幣1500多元,或許看起來不是很多,但要是連水電房租都付不出來,金牙可能就是你的保命符。
景氣愈差,似乎更突顯黃金的實用價值,為了求得短暫的溫飽,戒指項鍊這類紀念性物品,恐怕也得暫時拋在腦後了吧!(民視新聞林聖卿綜合報導)
2009年3月14日 星期六
2009年3月13日 星期五
最慘的會是小股東
也要小心企業債券 !
www.caogen.com全文
第二波海啸将冲击商业银行
宋鸿兵:我觉得如果第一波主要冲击的是美国的影子银行系统,也就是他的投资银行和跟资产证券化相关的这些机构,包括保险机构、对冲基金。第二波我觉得它 冲击的重点和中心地区将是美国的商业银行,不光是美国,包括欧洲商业银行体系在内的大型商业银行将是第二波金融海啸集中冲击的核心领域。当然也包括一些大 型的保险公司和对冲基金,但是它危机的核心将爆发在商业银行体系,商业银行体系将是危机的中心和重点。
三月后垃圾债券违约率将上升
宋鸿兵:我们认为第二波它发生在企业债、金融债这个领域,那么它的一个核心点,爆发最薄弱环节就是垃圾债。所以如果我们能够准确的判断垃圾债券违约出现 的高峰期这个时间段,我们就可以得到类似的概念,就是金融海啸第二波发作的时间表。从现在我们所掌握的垃圾债券违约这个情况来看,从今年的3月份,也就是 从现在开始,一直到今年的10月份,我觉得垃圾债违约率会上涨300%到500%,到今年10月份很可能突破20%,那么这个时间段,我觉得酝酿着重大的 危机。
储户存款彻底损失可能性不大
宋鸿兵:应该说由于美国的存款保险制度的存在,包括欧洲的存款保险制度,我觉得大家存在银行的存款彻底损失掉,这种可能性并不是很大。比如说美国,现在 已经把每个账户的保险额从10万美元提高到25万美元,也就是你只要在银行一个账户中存有不超过25万美元的情况之下,那么你的存款是安全的。从这个角度 来说,我觉得大家对这个倒不必太过惊慌。那么一些大型保险公司像AIG,政府也不能允许它破产,所以说如果出了再大的窟窿,政府必须要用财政来贴补它,或 者是直接拯救它,或者把它国有化。
从这个角度上来说,大家的保险金出现直接损失,或者存款出现直接的损失,这种可能性非常低。但是这并不意味着大家的投资是安全的。
2009年3月12日 星期四
人民幣貨幣互換擴至東歐
進一步國際化從亞洲拓歐洲
另外,央行昨日表示,與白俄羅斯國家銀行建立200億元人民幣/8萬億白俄羅斯盧布的雙邊貨幣互換協議。這是中國央行首次與亞洲以外央行達成類似協議,亦是中國首次嘗試將人民幣參與國際貿易結算從亞洲拓展到歐洲。
央行公告稱,此次協議目的是通過推動雙邊貿易及投資促進兩國經濟增長,該協議有效期三年,經雙方同意可以實施展期。
自金融風暴以來,中國央行已連續三次與亞洲其他地區央行簽署本幣互換協議,此前央行已先後與韓國、香港和馬來西亞達成雙邊貨幣互換協議。
有專家認為,貨幣互換協議的簽署有助提高人民幣在一些國家的使用,從一定程度上來說是為國際化鋪路,也將有助降低簽約國在兩邊貿易活動中面臨的美元匯率波動風險,從而利於雙邊貿易的發展。
受金融危機影響,多個東歐國家的貨幣面臨著嚴重壓力,這些嚴重依賴出口的國家對匯率的擔憂,使他們有強烈
中銀香港提醒客戶:警惕偽冒網站
中銀香港提醒客戶,Telex transfer section(Hong Kong)Limited 和網站www.telexboc.com 的一切業務及其所提供的服務一概與中銀香港、南商及集友無關,並已將有關情況知會香港金融管理局及香港警方。中銀香港請客戶經常保持警覺,注意任何試圖冒充中銀香港網址www.bochk.com的偽造網站。在任何情況下,客戶均不應透過來歷不明的電子郵件中的超連結進入自己的電子銀行賬戶。為確保客戶的個人資料安全,最安全的方法是在瀏覽器的網址欄內直接鍵入該行的網址(www.bochk.com)。除非客戶已完全確定登入 www.bochk.com,否則不應提供任何有關電子銀行賬戶的資料。中銀香港無論何時都不會向客戶發送電子郵件詢問或確認客戶的私人資料,包括但不限於賬戶號碼、個人識別號碼(PIN)、賬戶餘額、香港身份證號碼或護照號碼。客戶如有任何疑問,請致電中銀香港客戶熱線(852)233 233 28查詢。
2009年3月11日 星期三
原來東亞保管箱爆竊有損失
4賊掠東亞保險箱4百萬 (16:21)
東亞銀行太子分行保險庫上周四被爆竊,損失約400萬元財物,警方拘捕4名哥倫比亞籍疑犯。
警方表示,根據錄影帶的記錄,2名疑犯先引開銀行職員注意,然後另外2名疑犯進入保險庫,撬過9個保險箱,其中5個被撬開的保險箱有損失,總值約為400萬元的財物。
2009年3月10日 星期二
匯豐5大隱憂恐陷無底洞
【本報訊】(記者 卓建安)匯控(0005)公佈業績後,股價連日劇挫,市場分析這與匯控存有幾大隱憂有關,其中包括北美業務撥備不足,且仍未「止血」,並恐成為「無底洞」,匯控並有再次供股的可能性。
1. 北美貸款 每年料需減值千億
2. 供股未夠填數 可能再要集資
3. 歐業務惡化 威脅10萬億資產
4. 東歐若爆煲 勢重創歐洲經濟
5. 部分金融資產 虧損尚未入賬
China oil reserve full, sea storage needed
By George Chen and Zhang Shengnan
BEIJING, March 9 (Reuters) - China has filled its first 100 million barrels of onshore emergency crude oil tanks and the government should use some of its foreign exchange reserves on floating storage, an industry executive said on Monday.
The rare acknowledgement of China's strategic oil reserve levels indicated that the world's No. 2 energy user has been making good use of oil's $100 price fall to boost supplies while demand falters in an unfolding economic crisis.
Beijing is also making good on its pledge to better use its massive foreign exchange reserves to stock up key commodities from grain and metals to crude oil.
China Shipping (Group) Co President Li Shaode told Reuters on Monday that he had proposed that the government use some of its foreign exchange reserves on floating oil storage because the onshore tanks were full.
"The four onshore reserve bases have been fully filled, so we need to invest urgently in floating storage," Li said on the sidelines of the country's annual parliament.
Analysts believe China's crude stockbuild was much bigger than the 100 million barrels -- about one month's imports -- the four coastal sites can accommodate, and expected stockpiling to continue in the next 20 months or so as new tanks come on line.
"We expect China's oil stockpiling to reach a peak in 2009, and continue into the next year," said Yan Kefeng, Beijing-based senior oil analyst with Cambridge Energy Research Associates.
"Apart from reasons of supply security, China also wants to contain the investment risk of its foreign exchange reserves." said Yan, adding China did not stop replenishing crude reserves last year when global crude topped $147 a barrel in July.
Yan said the oil fill at the reserve bases matches a separate set of data released by China OGP, a publication run by the official Xinhua News Agency, which showed China's crude inventories surged by nearly a third last year to about 34 days of forward demand.
(Additional reporting and writing by Chen Aizhu, Editing by Jacqueline Wong))
八青年墮電話騙局
專 責 調 查 電 話 騙 案 的 東 九 龍 總 區 重 案 組 總 督 察 韋 理 民 解 釋 , 電 話 騙 案 自 去 年 3 月 起 有 上 升 趨 勢 , 尤 其 是 去 年 6 月 起 , 發 現 騙 徒 透 過 電 話 遙 控 受 害 人 到 港 澳 碼 頭 等 地 點 直 接 交 收 款 項 的 新 電 話 騙 案 ; 加 上 今 年 首 兩 個 月 有 兩 至 三 宗 個 案 涉 及 的 金 額 較 大 , 最 嚴 重 的 一 宗 受 害 人 被 騙 120 萬 元 。 但 他 稱 , 仍 有 65% 電 話 騙 案 不 成 功 , 反 映 市 民 警 覺 性 提 高 。
匯豐場外賭盤蝕入肉
除權期近 沽壓有增無減
由上周一匯豐公布08年業績大跌7成及世紀集資1,400億港元後,匯豐股價已從56.95元急滑 至43.5元,一周(四個交易日)跌去23%,跌幅遠遠大於同期恆指下跌6.94%,匯豐已成恆指的超級大弱股。值得一提的是,當匯豐股價下破40元大關 後,又會引發新一波的場外衍生產品大殺倉的壓力,估計ELN、Accumulator等涉及天文數字的賭盤被迫接貨,尤以Accumulator的殺傷力 最大,聽聞有某美資投行在1月中下旬已開出58元的盤口,以100萬美元為單位,以升上63元可賺5元差價,跌落40元要接100萬美元貨,跌至35元要 雙倍,跌至30元則要3倍接貨,即300萬美元,直至合約期滿。可以想像,投行在40元之上的賭盤,如50元、60元均有相當的衍生產品在上流、中產階層 以高息、大折讓價招引客戶,在兩個月以前,說匯豐見40元乃至30元係匪夷所思的極吸引盤口,故連月來匯豐股價一洩如注,中招的高端客戶群已蝕入肉,財產 大縮水。當然,月前以「血肉長城」低吸匯豐的散戶投資者,已成大鱷的點心。
要理解匯豐跌破50元的沽壓不減反增,除了大供股引發機構投資者減持外,上述匯豐衍生產品層層高價累積的接貨後斬倉套現沽盤,實際上已是源源不斷的壓力。供股後有部分落入短炒為目的分包銷財團,他們有微利便會「食糊」,不會有情意結。
台灣銀行水浸
(中央社記者高照芬台北2009年3月8日電)美國投資銀行雷曼兄弟聲請破產保護後,資金尋求安全避風港。台灣銀行今天表示,自去年9月至今,存款暴增逾新台幣2700億元,錢多到受不了。
中華郵政公司發現,近來郵局定期存款金額爆增3倍多,不少是來自企業存款,中華郵政檢討因不符郵政儲金匯兌法精神,明天起禁收營利法人定期存款。
台灣銀行發言人蔡富吉今天接受中央社記者訪問表示,依照「銀行法」規定,台銀會給存款人方便,不會拒收營業法人及自然人存款。
不過,他表示,自雷曼兄弟聲請破產保護以來,台銀的存款已經不能用「暴增」來形容,存款實在是「太多、太多,多到受不了!」。
蔡富吉不忘籲請媒體多多報導,錢存其他銀行也一樣安全。
他說:「金管會已宣布存款全額保障,錢存在其他銀行也相對安全,不一定要存台灣銀行,台銀的轉存款實在太多了」。
2009年3月8日 星期日
監聽軟件經短訊植入手機
【明報專訊】使用手機接收短訊(SMS)現在有可能遭植入監聽軟件而被竊聽!台灣刑事警察局前天破獲首宗販售手機監聽軟件案,發現疑犯已研發出新版監聽軟件,透過短訊、藍牙、紅外線等方式,就可將木馬程式植入手機內,並進行遠程遙控監聽,即使不通話也能掌控對方行蹤。
..............
其實早在幾年前, 我在新聞組已提醒版友, 手機一定要關閉藍牙功能, 因為當時匪徙已可以用特製儀器, 經藍牙吸取你手機中的存檔 !所以重大秘密, 唔好儲存在手機中 !
銀行須做好保管箱的保安
依家好多人都買實金放保管箱, 所以保管箱內容的價值已提升, 好易引匪徙犯案 !
早排有人投訴東亞保管箱唔見金條, 東亞沒能解釋 !
巴菲特裸泳
每日经济新闻 2009-03-06
巴菲特公司的股价为什么从15万美元跌到7万美元,并且成交量大幅度上升?这是那些维持巴菲特这个全球首富的机构投资者在卖出和放弃他的公司股票。
机构投资者“倒戈”
历史证明,一旦经济进入衰退周期,即便是企业盈利,股价仍会大幅度下滑。
穆迪投资者服务机构旗下的资本市场研究集团数据显示,伯克希尔信用违约掉期合约2009年3月3日的成交价表明,这家信用评级为AAA的公司实际表现就像是整整低了11个等级,即Ba2。华尔街的老手们都知道,今天的实际表现事实上就是未来的真实表现,因为真正的大股东总是比小股东预先知道更多公司的内情。
巴菲特或成最后“裸泳者”
信用卡撇帐美银汇丰花旗高危
美失业率今夏或超10%,恐酿信用卡危机
信用卡撇帐美银汇丰花旗高危(chinesenewsnet.com)
投资研究机构Innovest报告预测,美国信用卡市场今年撇帐额将高达960亿美元(约7,446亿港元),是去年的2.3倍,其中风险最高的包括美国银行、汇丰银行和花旗集团。(chinesenewsnet.com)
虽然与次按市场相比,信用卡市场规模较小,但信用卡“毒债”亦已打包成各种衍生投资工具,深入金融市场每个角落,假如信用卡市场崩溃,所造成的冲击绝不低于次按危机,将进一步打击美国经济。
一股匯豐一斤菜心 ?
現在菜心約賣 6 至 10 蚊一斤, 又唔知匯豐會否去到[一股匯豐一斤菜心]價呢 ?
2009年3月7日 星期六
2009年3月6日 星期五
大陸銀行戶口須知
所以大家一定要註意, 在換証件時, 要求俾返舊証件你 !
而用香港身份証開的舊戶口, 就須返去你開戶時的分行, 才可以用香港身份証作身份証明, 唔係你會提唔到錢出來 !存錢入去就無問題, 但避免你將來提錢麻煩多多, 最好開個新戶口, 慢慢把錢由舊戶口轉過去新戶口(如是定期戶口)!
如果你開戶分行搬佐, 可以入去任何一間分行問個清楚須去邊間搞手續 !
今日同老公過去深圳用佐半日時間搞個清楚 !
2009年3月5日 星期四
現金是王 實物為上
國務院總理溫家寶今天便會發表舉世矚目的政府工作報告,今年的報告內容保密功夫十分到家,大家要在9時開始逐句細聽。
溫家寶是「窮總理」也是「富總理」,中國是剛解決溫飽問題的發展中國家,但同時擁有近2萬億美元外匯儲備,面對發達國家空前的金融危機及經濟蕭條,到處是「便宜貨」,中國應該如何自處?
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「現金是王,實物為上」將會成為短期內的投資寶鑑。
俄羅斯富豪史特里戈夫(German Sterligov)的做法更徹底,提倡以原始的以物易物(barter)方式挽救世界走出經濟危機。
現時甚麼貨幣都靠不住,美元看跌,歐元中長期更有瓦解之虞,日圓、澳元不消提,之前以為是避難所,結果成為重災區,人民幣仍未自由兌換,亞洲貨幣脆弱無力,有人提倡買黃金,但黃金儲量有限,無法滿足現時全球頗大經濟所需。
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羅綺萍
市場上難道沒有更佳的投資選擇?
對 於 匯 控 供 股 是 否 值 得 跟 注 , 昨 日 已 有 不 少 分 析 , 但 不 少 讀 者 仍 想 聽 聽 筆 者 意 見 , 在 此 一 併 作 答 。
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美 國 按 揭 業 務 是 大 隱 憂
匯 控 在 美 國 留 下 一 條 大 尾 巴 。 次 按 橫 燒 至 信 用 卡 信 貸 , 壞 賬 率 正 持 續 飆 升 , 保 留 美 國 信 用 卡 業 務 , 究 竟 是 禍 是 福 ?
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匯 控 已 今 非 昔 比 , 撇 開 情 意 結 不 談 , 市 場 上 難 道 真 的 沒 有 更 佳 的 投 資 選 擇 乎 ?
王 冠 一
海嘯淹亞洲 巴韓最高危
本報記者 荊才
金融海嘯之後冰島已經破產,目前世界各國政府均在努力應對危機,歐洲G20國家早前召開會議,制定 4月就全球金融危機在倫敦舉行G20會議的框架,中國、日本、韓國及東協(ASEAN)成員國財長同月亦將在布吉召開會議。有「新末日博士」之稱的美國紐 約大學經濟學教授魯賓尼(Nouriel Roubini)指出,儘管各國試圖拯救金融體系,惟政府倒閉的危機仍未解除。事實上,繼東歐國家之後,金融海嘯第二波的巨浪,已經淹至亞洲國家的門口, 其中巴基斯坦、韓國均是瀕臨破產的高危一族。
巴基斯坦瀕臨破產
去年10月初標準普爾將巴基斯坦主權信用評級下調為「垃圾」級別,其中長期外幣債務評級由 原來的「B」下調為「CCC+」,這是僅高於破產的評級,顯示巴基斯坦已經瀕臨破產邊緣。
同時,韓國的經濟不斷惡化,其中出口方面,2月份的出口連續第4個月下滑,同比下跌17.1%,延續2002年來最長頹勢。
2009年3月3日 星期二
匯豐供唔供股好 ?
匯 控 供 股 時 間 表
3 月 11 日 : 買 入 有 供 股 權 的 控 股 份 最 後 日 期
3 月 12 日 : 供 股 除 權 日(今日才買無供股權送)
3 月 18 日 : 去 年 第 四 季 股 息 除 息 日(今日才買無息派)
3 月 19 日 : 在 英 國 舉 行 股 東 大 會 表 決 供 股
3 月 23 日 : 供 股 權 在 港 交 所 正 式 買 賣
3 月 31 日 : 供 股 權 最 後 一 日 可 供 買 賣
4 月 8 日 前 : 公 佈 供 股 結 果
4 月 9 日 : 新 普 通 股 正 式 於 港 交 所 買 賣
唔想供股的人士, 可以在3月23日至3月31日任何一日把供股權沽出; 須留意, 供股權的價值都可以升跌的, 睇供求 !還要留意, 你沽出得回來的錢, 是否可以抵消最低佣金, 唔係就白搞 !
想額外供股的人士, 可以買入供股權來供股, 因為額外申請供股沒必會俾你, 除非少人供股 ! 當然供股價就變了 = 供股權價+供股價
註:供股權不是真送俾你的, 而是從股價中扣出來, 就是你自己的錢, 所以應該計:3月12日扣出的供股權價+供股價才是你真正的供股價, 而唔係 28蚊 !
當年 8 號仔供股, 我建議客戶供股, 依家知是錯誤的 !
2009年3月2日 星期一
2009年3月1日 星期日
IPO 申請新股
用黃表申請 - 股票會寄去你申請表格上的銀行或證券行, 股票入了你戶口後就可以立即沽出。
但要記得, 填了白表吾可以再填黃表, 這樣會作廢無得再抽了 !
還有藍表或粉紅表是給員工申請認購自己公司的股票的。
申請新股有以下途徑 :
- 自己填白表或黃表夾上支票或本票, 自行放入收集箱。
- 經你證券行或銀行認購, 用費 100 港元, 不需簽名不需寫票, 因為證券行或銀行抽了返來才分給客戶的; 申請的款額會在截止申請日由你證券戶口扣除。
- 經你證券行或銀行用借錢方式(Margin Financing)認購, 自己出一成錢, 證券行或銀行借九成給你去認購, 當然要付利息的。
- 電子 IPO。
填表格時須注意 :
- 申請人名字一定要同票上的發票人一樣, 小心夾錯票 !
- 小心 check 清楚 Payee Name , 少個字母都 reject !
- 銀碼一定要吻合認購表上的銀碼, 少個或多個"仙" 都 reject !
- 日期一定要填, 求其寫個都得(當然不可以舊過三個月或沒到期), 唔寫就一定唔得 !
- "認購股數", "英文姓名", "地址", "銀碼", "Check no." 同將check 的"發票銀行"都一定要填, 而且要跟足 check 來填 !
- "職業"一定一定要填, 就算寫"Nil"或者"冇"...etc 都得, 但就唔可以空白或用"/" (畫一畫), 咁樣都會 reject !
- 要清楚寫明發票銀行名, 如寫"Hong Kong" 冇寫個Bank 字就 reject !
- 一人只可以申請一次, 如用黃表申請又去用白表申請, 或用聯名申請又去用單名申請都會被 reject !
- 記得簽名
聯名申請可以開聯名支票(或本票)或用排在前面個位人士的單人支票,
單人申請可以開單人個人支票或用聯名支票都無問題, 只要支票上有申請人之名。
配股和供股的分別
供股是大股東向小股東要錢, 規定持有幾多股份就要用幾多錢去認購幾多新股。 供股都有個除凈日, 在這日"供股權"會由股價中扣除, 在這日或以後買入的股票就不須供股的, 在除凈日之前買入的股票就可以獲得"供股權", 多數會用 29xx 號碼(2005年時用 29xx, 依家就唔知了)上市買賣交易十日。 如果你不想供股, 你可以把供股權賣出去給外人去供股, 但如果供股價高過市場價, 好多時都無人會買這些供股權的。 供股不是硬性的, 所以就算你賣不出供股權你都可以不供股。 如果供股價低過市價, 好多時小股東會樂意供股; 除了規定的供股股數, 你都可以額外再申請供多一些, 但不一定會分給你的。
如果你股票還在證券行或銀行, 他們會幫你去收取供股權及幫你搞供股, 當然會收你費用。 如果股票是轉了名自己保管, 到時你會收到一張供股權及一張額外供股表格的。 如果你想把這供股權出賣就要拿去你證券行或銀行沽出!
覆短訊中招頻頻破財
以 手 機 短 訊 互 通 訊 息 十 分 普 遍 , 惟 須 小 心 勿 胡 亂 回 覆 短 訊 , 隨 時 招 致 金 錢 損 失 。 有使 用 儲 值 卡 的 手 機 用 戶 不 慎 回 覆 一 個 短 訊 後 , 儲 值 卡 餘 款 不 翼 而 飛 , 前 後 兩 次 充 值情 況 依 舊 。 經 向 網 絡 供 應 商 了 解 , 才 得 知 回 覆 了 一 間 提 供 網 絡 資 訊 公 司 的 短 訊 , 等同 登 記 服 務 , 每 發 出 一 個 短 訊 收 費 2 元 , 事 主 直 斥 情 況 等 同 搶 錢 。
醒 目 貼 士 : 防 掠 水 短 訊 招 數
1 〉 收 到 短 訊 , 切 勿 隨 便 發 送 回 覆
2 〉 留 意 賬 單 , 查 看 有 否 徵 收 附 加 費 用
3 〉 發 現 不 合 理 短 訊 收 費 , 立 即 聯 絡 電 訊 公 司
4 〉 致 電 電 訊 管 理 局 「 拒 收 信 息 登 記 冊 」 進 行 登 記 ( 電 話 : 1835 000 ) , 表 明 拒 收 商 業 電 子 信 息
台銀行鼓勵停用信用卡
【本報訊】據台灣媒體報道,以往在街上經常出現銀行職員賣力推廣信用卡、銀行苦苦挽留客戶的情景或已成絕響。過去三個月,全台發卡機構每月停卡數較上年同期暴增近30萬張,單月停卡張數飆逾70萬張,預估總計將達600萬張,佔島內有效卡數近三分之一。有業內人士研判,須至10月才能回穩。
許多民眾最近曾有共同經驗:以為接到詐騙電話,對方先說自己是某銀行客服人員,問手上是不是有幾張這家銀行的信用卡?有沒有考慮停用?由於「線上停卡」必須提供個人資料,民眾以為是詐騙電話,直接掛線。某大學法律系畢業的林小姐就接到這樣的電話,於是她致電銀行客服中心,發現真有此事,心想自己信用這麼好,又從沒欠過一分錢,只是沒刷而已,為何要她停卡。
客戶兩年沒刷首當其衝
原來近期銀行不好經營,銀行主動出擊跟用戶「提分手」。據悉,台新銀行今年上半年針對一年以上沒刷卡客戶,主動打電話問要不要停卡。蘇格蘭皇家銀行(荷銀)信用卡負責人表示,日前針對兩年內沒客戶主動發函通知會停卡,不願被停的客戶必須主動打電話回覆銀行,才能確保權益。
信用卡主管說,以每月平均停卡750,000張、未來8個月全台將有6,000,000張信用卡被停掉,佔流通卡數比重近18%、有效卡數比重31%。
少發一張卡 可年省百元