www.reuters.com
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Like a lion stalking its prey, another food price spike lurks as a threat to tentative global economies and poor nations in particular this year.
Last year's run-up in food prices sparked riots in developing nations, drove commodity markets to record highs and prompted export bans that roiled the flow of world trade.
With the worldwide recession, prices have been retreating in the developed world. But they remain stubbornly high in many poorer nations, and with the return of tight supplies and high demand grain markets are again flashing warning signs that could prove expensive for world consumers.
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INFLATION CESSPOOL?
Much of the focus is on the soybean crop. The oilseed is an important source of protein in many parts of the world and a key feed ingredient for livestock.
But supplies remain razor thin. The Memphis, Tennessee-based analytical firm Informa Economics sent soybean prices to a seven-month high of $11.67 a bushel on Tuesday with a report that pegged U.S. soybean stocks at 77 million bushels, or 53 million bushels less than the U.S. government forecast.
John Hoddinott, senior research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute, said a bigger unknown is how high fuel prices will go this year. Oil prices have been on a bumpy upward climb since February, nearing $60 a barrel.
"But if there were significant rises in petroleum prices it would not be surprising if it dragged food prices alongside up with them," he said.
To be sure, not all economists believe alarm bells should be rung yet over the return of food inflation.
Basse of AgResource thinks food inflation will be blunted in the near term by meat and milk prices that are weak from the liquidation of herds. But that too has a long-term impact.
"Nine to 18 months from now, I think we'll be right back in the food inflation cesspool. I think that generally speaking it is something we should all be concerned about."
(Editing by Jim Marshall)
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