2011年4月7日 星期四

Silver is Approaching Stage Two of its Bull Market

goldsilver.com

Back in April 2007, I wrote about the three stages that appear in every bull market, and more to the point, that gold was approaching the end of stage one. Gold back then was still trading around $690, and therefore well below its then record high of $850 reached in January 1980. My view was that “gold looks ready to make a new all-time high. When that happens, stage two begins. There will not yet be widespread excitement about gold in the next stage, because that won't occur until stage three. But when gold makes a new record high, and particularly after it breaks into a 4-digit price, people will begin paying attention.”

I wrote a follow-up article in November 2009 entitled Welcome to Stage Two of Gold's Bull Market, just two months after gold broke above $1,000. Focusing on the change in prevailing sentiment, I noted how differently gold was being treated. "During the first stage of a bull market, the media and most investors alike focus on past issues, rather than future potential. Over the past decade one consequently heard all the reasons not to own the gold…But there is a notable difference in this stage compared to stage one. Look how many people are writing and talking about gold. Gold has moved from apathy and neglect – stage one characteristics – to growing attention. But importantly, instead of embracing gold and analyzing it to determine relative value, today’s attention is one of widespread disbelief and skepticism that gold can climb higher. These are exactly the responses one should expect to emanate from stage two." I concluded by noting that at some unpredictable point in the future, gold will enter stage three "when gold no longer is relatively good value."

I did not make any mention of silver in the above two articles. It too has three stages, but silver is still mired in stage one, which began in February 1991 after silver had collapsed to $3.50. It was an astounding 93% decline from its January 1980 peak of $50. But as we can see on the following chart, $3.50 was silver’s low, and its price has been rising ever since.

From its $50 high in January 1980 to its $3.50 low in February 1991, the weak hands were shaken out. At that point, the accumulation by strong hands – who were buying because the recognized that silver was an exceptional bargain – became the dominant force. Their buying power was stronger than the selling pressure of the weak hands, and the price of silver responded by starting to climb. It was classic stage one action, but here’s the important point.

Silver is still in stage one. It won’t advance into stage two until $50 is exceeded, just like gold did not enter stage two until its previous high of $850 was hurdled.

I expect that silver will exceed $50 this year, which is a point of view I first mentioned in my outlook for 2010.

Admittedly, I was a little early with my forecast about when gold would enter stage two. So perhaps I will again be early by forecasting that silver will enter stage two of its bull market this year. Regardless of the accuracy of my timing, one thing is clear. Because it is still in stage one, silver remains good value.

25 則留言:

  1. 即現價還可以跟進買入...當銀價到達50美元之前....

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  2. 一早講咗可以去到 100/120 啦, 所以銀依家還是好平 ! :)

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  3. Lisa,妳近來多左post有關金銀嘅文章!

    好彩,早排我都買左d銀!

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  4. 回 sky925,
    我見唔到股市有乜好講, 因為分分鐘又可以倒跌, 而樓市又在高位, 依家買好大風險 ! 依家只是金和銀還是買得過, 如果 D 專家無點我地的說, 哈哈 !

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  5. Lisa,我朋友今日去左kitco買一安士銀牌,
    Kitco staff 話呢d冇得回收,希望今年可以做到有得回購!
    其他,就有得回收(回購)!

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  6. 回sky925,
    諗住長線的, 都唔會理佢收唔收啦, 在 50樓上到時實有公司出來收 !

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  7. 如果我沒理解錯,作者是用歷史高位來分辨stage 1與stage 2
    但銀價的高位$50, 是一個極為明顯的人為干預所致, 而且只持續很短時間, 如以$50作為分水嶺,好像有點不妥當
    不過我仍然看好白銀,只要這個騙子社會沒有改善的話

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  8. 回tamama,
    支術分析係咁計的啦, 第一個阻力會是 50, 唔會一次過衝破, 要企穩 50樓上, 才會再上升, 而長遠來睇, 如果要追上金價, 銀就要見 10000 都唔出奇!

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  9. KITCO D Staff 忙到唔得閒覆我, 今日想落 order 都唔得....

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  10. 回嘉芙蓮,
    妳打電話 order ?
    我一早知, 我一出文 D 人就會飛到去買銀, 因為好多人在等細 size 9999銀塊好耐啦 ! XD !

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  11. 回sky925,
    kitco 1 oz銀牌仔有回收價架喎 !

    http://honson.concordtech.com.hk/pic/kitco.jpg

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  12. 50是過去的人為關卡, 亦造就了今天的心理關口.

    不過, 這一次帶動升值的原因完全不同了, 一方大戶的壓價能力亦因有太多對手, 我想是壓不住的了.

    穿50是一兩年內的事.

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  13. 回富媽,
    照我睇, 今年應該會升穿 50, 因為已通曬天中國大手買銀 !

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  14. 其實是不是應該這樣想=.=!?
    30年前的$50美元等於現在幾多錢??
    另外一個30年前的技術分析頂位又有幾多參考的價值??

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  15. 回阿葉,
    kitco 1 oz銀牌仔有回收價架喎 !

    只係參考 @@@@@@@!!!

    我朋友..都問佢(kitco)...佢話只供參考 !

    聽日,打去問多次.....!!!!!!!!!!!!

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  16. 歐洲加左息...金銀繼續升!

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  17. 阿葉:精彩既金息互逐可能就快上演!

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  18. 加息代表通脹升溫, 所以金銀只會愈升愈有 !

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  19. 回Joe兄,

    咁就坐定定...睇戲啦 !

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  20. 今早去了kitco及利昌, kitco 銀條回收價只是參考, 他們公司未開始回收
    利昌今早銀價382

    Keith

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  21. Lisa,朋友經過元朗大馬路,見到有間新開的店,是回收廢銀的,還張貼招聘職員廣告.但今朝太早,店鋪未開鋪.相信越來會越多這樣的店.
    nlpsonia

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  22. 浸日我去利昌, 見到佢地收好多銀o既杯碟, 係度處理緊, 跟住係度數好多金條&銀條, d 銀條相信係o甘熔出o黎!

    ANN

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  23. Lisa,白銀剛破40
    nlpsonia

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