Today acclaimed commodity trader Dan Norcini told KWN, “... we have a combination of bullish indicators that may very well signal that the gold bears are going to be crushed and overrun.” Norcini also said, “We could very well see silver ignite.”
Here is what Norcini had to say: “We have a surge in crude oil and gasoline. At the wholesale level, gasoline has already surged more than 20% higher. WTI Crude oil is up near $95 a barrel, and Brent crude is significantly higher. Not only do we have energy on the move, but we also have grains on the move as well.”
Dan Norcini continues:
“Soybean
prices are making record highs, corn is making record highs, and wheat
has soared. The impact of these higher grain prices is going to be
with us for quite some time. So you have rising food, rising energy,
and now we are seeing a breakdown in the bond market.
There are increasing fears about price increases. We may be getting away from the deflationary scenario, and the very real fears of slowing global growth, to what’s going on with prices now. If food and energy prices head higher, along with bond yields, that signals a shift, finally, to the onset of significant inflation.
If
that turns out to be the case, investors will need to keep an eye on
silver. Silver will actually lead gold higher in that environment. We
could very well see silver ignite to the upside. And of course gold
will have a strong response as well.
This
is the type of scenario that can take both the gold and silver markets
right out of these long consolidations and into a trending move to the
upside. The first thing we need to see is a strong weekly close on
gold above the $1,640 level.
Above
$1,640 you are going to see a great deal of short covering from the
speculative camp because there is still a significant speculative short
position in gold. Those shorts will start to panic and cover if we see
a weekly close above $1,640. This will also bring in the momentum
crowd, which would only exacerbate the panic for the shorts.
Remember,
Eric, when we see gold break decisively above $1,700, it will move
quickly and violently to $1,800. We have spoken very recently about
the massive Chinese buying in the $1,500’s. This buying rebuffed all
of the bears attempts to break the gold market below $1,500.
There
came a point where the sovereign buyers actually started raising the
level of their buy orders. At that point we began to see a series of
higher lows in gold. We also chronicled the structural changes on the
COT which were extremely bullish for both gold and silver.
We
saw the swap dealers become net longs, and quite frankly this really
should have been a red flag for the shorts. Now we also know that
billionaires Paulson and Soros were adding to their respective gold
stashes during that time period.
The
bottom line here is we have a combination of bullish indicators that
may very well signal the gold bears are going to be crushed and
overrun. This is the type of environment where we may see a major move
to the upside in both gold and silver. The real shock for market
participants will be if this move takes place during the typically
sleepy month of August.”
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