James Turk 說, 前晚金價的大波動(升去1414後又跌返去1356), 是發生在美國市和倫敦市都開放的時段, 名為 London PM fix, 而在呢個時段, 買賣實金的叫價會得到對盤而成交 !
所以可以見到當時真正的實金交收價格和顯示實金有幾短缺 !kingworldnews.com
With hedge fund shorts in gold and silver continuing to battle the physical market in London, today James Turk told King World News that the hedge funds will be overrun as the physical market takes down the massively overexposed paper shorts. Turk also spoke about the wild trading which has centered around the London fix.
Turk:
“We are seeing some extraordinary events in the gold market, Eric. One
of these was yesterday's London PM fix, which people are still talking
about. Gold was trading quietly around $1385 just before the fix.
Then, as the fix commenced, gold rose within roughly 15 minutes to
$1414.
“The London PM fix, which takes place
every business day at 3 PM London time, is one of the most important
daily events in gold. It occurs when both the London and North
American markets are open, so it has deep liquidity.
The
London fix is widely misunderstood because of its name, but if you view
it in a nautical sense, to 'fix' on a distant point, the term makes
sense. What the fix aims to do is discover the price at which buyers
and sellers of physical ‘London Good Delivery’ bars are in balance.
The dealers keep offering bars for sale or bidding on bars for purchase
until there is a balance between them in order to clear the market,
which is why yesterday's fix was so significant, Eric.
Normally
the institutions and other big players in the market can get 400-ounce
gold bars delivered to them within 2 days after payment, typically
called T+2. These two days enable the seller of gold to make sure he
has received good funds because he is converting hard money - physical
gold - into soft money, namely, the national currency the seller
accepts in payment. The currency is usually dollars, but sometimes
pounds are used. Soft currencies may be repudiated because banks can
reverse wire transfers, which explains the caution the seller requires
before releasing the bars.
In
the days leading up to the fix, some of the larger orders to buy bars
have been moving out to as long as T+5, which is extraordinary. These
orders, typically 3-to-5 tons in size, are normally handled with no
problem. So to see this lengthy delay in delivery - which is very rare
- shows how tight the physical market for gold really is.
Different
markets reflect the tightness in physical metal in different ways. For
example, India and Shanghai reflect the tightness with huge premiums.
Futures contracts reflect the tightness by moving into backwardation,
but the true extent of the current backwardation between May and June
is being distorted by manipulating interest rates.
But
in London, the tightness cannot be distorted or hidden. We can see the
tightness by the shorts delaying delivery, which is happening right
now. So it is clear that the buyer or buyers who pushed the gold price
up during the London PM fix yesterday were obviously desperate to get
their hands on physical metal and were prepared to pay whatever price
it took to obtain it.
The
huge premiums over spot in Asia and the long delivery times in London
clearly show that this takedown in gold over the past few weeks was all
about what was taking place in the paper market. The same is true for
silver, which looks like it had a selling climax on Monday, given the
huge upside reversal in its price that day along with gold. Gold's
reversal wasn't as spectacular as silver, but nevertheless it was a
solid performance.
There
is an old saying that market prices can appear irrational longer than
one can stay solvent. It is one reason I do not recommend trading
markets or using leverage, but instead focus on accumulating
undervalued assets that are paid for in full. For the past few weeks,
and even now, the precious metals are being given away at bargain
basement prices because traders of paper metal have forced the gold
price lower by their relentless selling of gold's various derivative
instruments.
The
hedge funds in particular have been piling on and now have a record
short position. Maybe they foolishly believe that gold's 5,000-year
history as money ends here. The only thing about to end is the hedge
fund short positions as the gold and silver prices look ready to blast
off from current levels. KWN readers should expect a major upside move
that will panic these hedge funds out of their short positions. In
other words, the physical market is about to take down the paper
traders who are massively overexposed on the short side.”
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