Gold – Falling From Grace

armstrongeconomics.com

Gold has been trending lower Breaking the June low of 2013 showing that the Benchmark Forecasts in The 2014 International Metals Outlook Report are right on track as it hits fresh four-year lows. The Gold Promoters are just desperate for bullish news and will craft whatever they can to continue their delusional bubble in which they live. They will never admit being wrong. As long as anyone who still listens has a dime left to buy in a falling market, why give up now.

The latest bullish news they cling to is the vote in Switzerland at the end of the month when the Swiss go to the polls on November 30 in a referendum that will lay down new rules for the country’s central bank concerning its gold reserves. There are actually people claiming a yes vote will send gold up 20% and somehow this will make the Swiss franc the most secure currency in the world. Since the Swiss have these reserves, why have they not prevented gold’s decline? So why holding on to a position makes gold bullish? Not sure where is the logic. Of curse a NO vote would be super bearish for then everyone would expect the central bank to dump gold. The problem, of course, these stories spinners overlook the facts.

The Swiss have suffered tremendous capital inflows because of the collapse the Euro, which this crowd also touted would displace the dollar. Sorry – the euro has been a failed corrupt currency. Their bias simply knows no bounds and comes at the expense of the life savings of so many people they have misled. The Swiss pegged the franc to the Euro and it has been dropping in tandem. The Swiss central bank has lost a ton of money on gold and the euro. Pegging the franc to the euro meant that they were buyers of euro. Then gold has crashed. The central bank has lost money from every which way possible and actually risk reducing Switzerland to a third world country.

The Swiss pension funds are mandated to buy government bonds by over 80% and that pays nothing. The Swiss bureaucrats have given up just about everyone with any loose change to the Americans, French, and Germany, not to forget the Italians. The Swiss have been trying to create a security zone for data, but there too can they really be trusted? The bureaucrats in Switzerland ask other countries what would they like now?They hand over info way too easily. The Swiss bureaucrats are reducing their economy to one based on chocolate, cheese, and watches. Now with Ebola threatening the cocoa crops, they may even lose the chocolate franchise.

Surveys are divided about support for the “Save Our Gold” camp that would force the Swiss National Bank to hold 20% of its reserves in gold, repatriate bullion held outside its borders and halt all sales. A yes vote would be just what investors who nursing a 30%-plus drop in the price of gold over the past two years are praying for now. But this would do noting to support gold for the trend is down with or without the Swiss selling. They will not be real buyers – they are losing a heap on the euro and gold.

The gold promoters are begging the Swiss voters to pass the Save Our Swiss Gold initiative on November 30th. They are telling the Swiss that saving the gold with result in a developed market currency that could therefore become a destination for a deluge of foreign capital. This argument shows how detached these people are from reality. The Swiss franc was the object of a flight of capital from the euro. That was pushing the franc higher and Swiss companies threatened to leave because a strong franc reduced their exports. That was why the Swiss pegged the franc to the euro to PREVENT a rise in the franc. As a consequence, they are so LONG the euro, they are bleeding capital losses from every possible orifice. So why would they want a strong franc? They had that chance and went the opposite direction. So telling the Swiss the capital will pour into their currency is NOT what they want to hear.

Sorry – but this fundamental of the Swiss vote that will save gold is just another desperate attempt to pretend every new day’s low will be the final low. The question that arises – When will these people stop the nonsense? Probably not until they have bankrupted every person who has ever listened to their antiquated theories. The world economy is moving electronic. The younger generation do not subscribe to these fantasies about money – they pay with their cell phones. They have abandoned newspapers for the internet. It is the older generation that clings to the days when there were gold coins that circulated before 1971. The idea that money can only be gold is on par with the claim that the earth cannot be a round ball because you would fall off the closer you moved toward the bottom. Clearly, who cannot stand upside down!

Money has always been whatever people find of value. That has been bronze and sea shells to cattle, gold, and labor. Here is a Roman bronze Aes Signatum (5 pounds) with the symbol of cattle. This shows how bronze was entering the monetary system that represented value or wealth – cattle.

A nation’s wealth is NOT its gold reserves – but its total productive capacity. If a primitive island discovered a mountain of gold, it will not transform the nation into a productive society. Spain proved that point. All the gold and silver they brought back to Europe flooded the economy, but did not prevent them from defaulting on their debts reducing Spain to a third world state. Spain NEVER invested in its economy – they paid others to do work. In the end, they had little productive capacity to create a world class economy.

Gold is a personal hedge against government. It is NOT money – for that is determined ONLY by the majority of people. Gold has no worth unless another desires it. By itself, gold is just a metal – pretty, but still just an object. It became desirable first for jewelry – it was considered the tears of the sun god. It is a hedge against government when government fails for then and only then capital seeks to preserve itself by fleeing to the private sector from public.