升升跌跌, 真真假假, 照 Martin Amstrong 說, 跌完就會升, 但就是黃金和股市一齊升 !
www.armstrongeconomics.comThe first possible target in time coming out of the 2009 low was 2015.75 for the Dow to reach a Phase Transition and then a crash and burn. We stated in 2011 that the market was off to new highs and even Barrons covered that forecast more as a curiosity. We have constantly warned that the Phase Transition was not yet confirmed.
Indeed, the Phase Transition clearly shifted back in 2014 and appeared as we have been warning to be postponed into 2017. The three price targets were 18500. 23000, and the 30000-40000 extreme target. At the beginning of 2015, we warned it did not appear to be likely that the market would exceed 18500 on the Dow and it looked like it would crawl along resistance forming a high in May. So far that has been the pattern.
Now the question which confronts us is how long of a contraction do we see. Such a False Move must take place with a minimum of 2 month to 3 months which suggests an August low. If we see lower lows intraday or September closes lower than August with a new intraday low in the Dow (not NASDAQ), then we may have a different pattern ahead. Nonetheless, if this pattern with an August low holds, then we may be off to the Phase Transition coming out of the hole. This would be confirmed by electing Monthly Bullish generated from an August low.
In terms of price, we should be aware of this pattern development by exceeding 18500. The next hurdle will be 23000. Exceeding that level and we are now into the Phase Transition with the target in the 30000-40000 level with a really disastrous outcome. This would most likely be coupled with gold as all tangible assets rise driven by the shift from public to private.
This is the pattern and the requirements to see that unfold. It is not a forecast and should not be seen as a promotional forecast like gold promoters. If you do not understand this type of analysis, you are not ready for the professional level so go back to your normal viewing channels. This blog is obviously not for you. You belong in the guru follower circuit.
www.armstrongeconomics.com
QUESTION:
A false move? I don’t follow..
If as you say the European money that’s been buying US stocks is now heading back to Europe, who will be the new buyers of US stocks?
ANSWER:
A False Move is an event that must shake the tree and get everyone out of their longs and many then short. It is typically 2 to 3 months in duration. We can see we did NOT get the Phase Transition for 2015.75. Yes we more than doubled from the 2009 low. But that still did not satisfy a Phase Transition. The minimum would have required 23000 by now with the medium target being 30000 and the extreme 40000. You can see here the doubling effect between the last False Move and the 1929 high. Gold rose from $100 in 1976 to $400 by December 1979 and then it doubled in a Phase Transition to $875 by January 21, 1980 in just 8.6 weeks – very short time span. The crawling along our first target at 18500 illustrated this was not the right time for the Phase Transition and this suggested a postponement until 2017 for 2015.75 first had to complete the bubble in bonds (government). This dove-tails nicely with the rise in third party activity for the 2016 election. Keep in mind this can be a break with a split in the Republicans or a successful internal revolution against the corrupt country-club Republicans like Boehner.
Shaking the tree right now does NOT suggest that the Europeans are gone forever. They are just pulling back now impacting the Euro moving counter-trend to most other currencies. The Dow will rise with interest rates and that will attract foreign capital with a rising dollar. For the flip side when we reverse, they will be back but this time we should start to see domestic retail join in as the new buyers. Initially, the rally should begin with short-covering. We simply need to build the forces for a Phase Transition. That requires the bulk of people to call for a crash so they keep trying to sell the rally after this False Move and that helps to fuel the rally contrary to all logic of market pundits.
照这样说，黄金见底了？
回覆刪除馬田的時間觀真的很長，我以為佢一直講shake the tree係十月一前，原來係主要指2017...依家係小shake，遲啲先黎大鑊。但我反而知道可以入市，但最重要係識幾時走人，唔使賺盡，要走就走了。
回覆刪除但我都係唔知佢所指的金市走勢係點。。。一直等緊要落到900先開始入市，以為都係十月一前會落到去，依家睇黎真係cash is the king，要坐穩船，等多幾年了。。。
見步行步 XD !
回覆刪除不要理個價，最重要係睇timing！
回覆刪除分析下先:
回覆刪除依家是假跌(股市), 跌夠就股金一齊升, 8月或9月可以見底(股市), 10月Big Bang 已不成立, 之後美股升去30000-40000點(無講金), 剛好支持美國2016年的選舉, 2017年開始跌去到2020年(美股, 無講金); 呢3年金會跟美股跌還是會是避難所 ?
唯有等佢將來的報告 XD !
看了很多篇，我都可以幾肯定，big bang不是指股市或金市，而是國債市場！big bang對金價走勢影響，我還在寫，他的預測是很大機會於2015.75後展開新升浪，很多篇都有講。
回覆刪除至於股市，應該没説過2015.75會大跌，反而講過有機會是高位，亦説過這幾個月會大波動，九月底跌到低位，就2015.75後回升，相反就下跌，所以我先至喺五月十六日沽晒美股，到九月底先至再決定！
回覆刪除咁多位高手，請教實金有冇擔心過中港貨幣出事時，會實施充公政策？
回覆刪除Big Bang應該不是指一次性的災難，如股災，而是一個拐點，一個大趨勢的轉灣位。重點在國債市場，接近這個點的前後，將會發生一些事，或政策上的改變，扭轉國債市場長期上升的趨勢。對上一次是64年前的1951年，聯儲局放寬債息上限，令到國債下跌，慢慢失去資金載體作用，所以才有70年代黄金大升市。
回覆刪除1951年+64年，剛好是2015年，所以我估計這個影響國債市場的因素很大機會是加息。接近2015.75前後，國債孳息將會見底，國債會上升動力告終，未必會立即爆，但肯定將會是國債價格一個重要頂部。他的預測似乎慢慢應驗，因為近來股市下滑，已將資金進一步趕入國債市場，上周彭博美國國債指數已升上124點，準備挑戰今年二月的歷史最高位，這個高點是1980年以來最高，講緊已經係升了三十幾年。
今朝馬田出文重申：The real focus for this particular ECM turning point is the bond market and the bubble in government. 了解2015.75要時刻謹記這一點！唯一我未搞清楚，而馬田又沒有說明白的是，他指2020前中國將會見一個底部(相信也包括香港)，這個底部相信是指經濟(包括股市)，究意是指這一次的大跌，還是之後的2017年？如果不是這一次，那今次跌市將會是一個入市良機，機會一半半！他之前有講過，如果美股於九月跟隨外圍下跌，見一個底部，2015.75之後會上升，否則就呈相反走勢(即是外圍跌，美股升，而後2015.75後美股跌，外圍升)，現在看來是美股港股走勢一樣，2015.75後將會上升，與李居明看法一致！
回覆刪除謝 Joe,
回覆刪除Martin Amstrong 講野好難明, 又咁多不明朗因素, 都係信李居明多D XD !