Bears Are Circling Gold; Watch Out For A Value Trap

是跌, 還是行相反 ?

blogs.barrons.com

By Chris Dieterich

The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) is fresh off its worst month in 2 1/2 years, so it’s no surprise that traders remain bearish on the precious metal.

The market’s largest gold ETF fell 6.8% last month, the worst since an 11.1% decline in June 2013. It’s up a tick, 0.3%, on Tuesday; for 2015, GLD is off 10%.

Bearish “short” positions in gold futures contracts jumped November amid anxiety that a Federal Reserve interest rate hike combined with a rising dollar could dim demand for gold. While pessimism in gold is an increasingly consensus view, Pravit Chintawongvanich, head derivatives strategist at Macro Risk Advisors, says that crowded trades can also be correct ones:

“While short gold is a crowded trade, it doesn’t mean the crowd is wrong. Short positioning in gold was similarly higher than usual in early 2013 before gold collapsed 25%. The short positioning in commodities points to 1) the existence of a trend and 2) the potential for short-term volatility against the trend if positions are stopped out.”

He plots the short positions in gold futures (shorts bet against assets by borrowing futures, hoping to buy back later at a lower price), noting that, particularly in 2013, shorting gold was crowded at the same time that it was right on the money. For investors looking to buy the dip, this chart smacks of a value-tap warning: