NEXT WEEK
Precious metals are still vulnerable, but Friday’s reversal represents yet one more example of the highly unusual trading that has been going on since the re-boot of the precious metals bull – and on a non-farm payrolls data release, no less. In last week’s write-up, I noted:
Bottom-line: I do believe we have significant risk for still further downside, but if I had to quantify probability for the sake of discussion, I believe we have greater than 80% probability that the cartel will NOT be able to get gold below $1,175 next week. I expect this week’s damage to be repaired rather quickly. We might even turn around starting at the beginning of next week and there’s a reasonable chance gold will not even fall below $1,197 (intraday slice through $1,200, and that’s it – time will tell). – click here.
Now, with 20/20 hindsight we can see that the cartel failed to even produce an intraday slice through $1,200. What I wrote about last week is every bit as relevant, going forward. But I don’t have as good of a read on how probabilities are shaping up for Sunday through Tuesday’s gold trade. I keep my mouth shut when I’m less certain. But over the next two weeks?
The case for
higher gold prices remains, and the ongoing saga of the COMEX COT
numbers getting even more unnerving will be dogging us in April.
Humorously, a well known analyst for whom I have nothing but respect sent GATA’s Bill Murphy an email Thursday night: “Tell Eric I wager two hookers and a pound of blow that gold trades south of $1,190 before $1,300.“
Had he offered me $1,175, I’d have to give some serious consideration to his bet, because the risk/reward on that threshold would most likely have me rolling in blow and hookers – but what to do with all that blow.
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