on.cc東網專訊
【on.cc東網專訊】
據外國傳媒報道，受惡劣天氣及內地投機氣氛充斥影響，價格在過去一年翻一番！由於中國大蒜佔全球出口總量80%，對進口國影響甚大。
荷蘭水果蔬菜交易商Denimpex表示，現時在中國，到處也買不到大蒜，料已被實力雄厚的大戶囤積了大部分貨源，預期大蒜價格可能要等到明年第2季才會暴跌。
據了解，大蒜價格上漲始於去年底，主要產區山東因為經過連場大雨後，又經歷大雪，對2016年大蒜收成造成很大影響，令大蒜價格升至歷史新高，並引起了投機性購買，繼而更推高價格。有分析指出，今年很多人都知道大蒜失收，令囤積托價頻生。再者，去年中國監管當局為了穩定股市，對股票進行限制，令熱錢湧入大宗商品。
由於供應不足和價格高昂，導致中國大蒜出口量跌至4年新低。在今年首7個月，生蒜的出口跌了12%，至89.5萬噸；其中中國乾蒜出口幾乎佔全球總量90%，乾蒜主要用於食品加工。
2016年10月31日 星期一
分析稱港人幣資金池回升顯示市場信心恢復
on.cc東網專訊
【on.cc東網專訊】 人民幣「入籃」1個月，中國銀行(香港)高級經濟研究員應堅指出，人民幣受了一場市場考驗，從十一黃金周開始，離岸人民幣(CNH)先急步下行，突破6.7大關，更一度直奔另一個心理關口6.8，但今日收市已回穩至6.77水平。
應堅認為，近期人民幣匯率波動沒有多少牽涉境內基本面，與人民幣加入SDR更沒有直接關係，是由外圍因素變化引發的全球市場小震盪，令SDR的人民幣表現未如理想。
應堅並指，一個月以來，全球市場人民幣資產吸引力上升。9月份香港人民幣存款按月增長1.9%，是在人民幣資金池連續3個月減少後首次回升，顯示人民幣加入SDR後，市場信心有所恢復，銀行客戶更願意持有及兌換人民幣存款。
【on.cc東網專訊】 人民幣「入籃」1個月，中國銀行(香港)高級經濟研究員應堅指出，人民幣受了一場市場考驗，從十一黃金周開始，離岸人民幣(CNH)先急步下行，突破6.7大關，更一度直奔另一個心理關口6.8，但今日收市已回穩至6.77水平。
應堅認為，近期人民幣匯率波動沒有多少牽涉境內基本面，與人民幣加入SDR更沒有直接關係，是由外圍因素變化引發的全球市場小震盪，令SDR的人民幣表現未如理想。
應堅並指，一個月以來，全球市場人民幣資產吸引力上升。9月份香港人民幣存款按月增長1.9%，是在人民幣資金池連續3個月減少後首次回升，顯示人民幣加入SDR後，市場信心有所恢復，銀行客戶更願意持有及兌換人民幣存款。
加連威老道一條街22間吉舖 冠絕核心區
on.cc東網專訊
【on.cc東網專訊】 根據美聯工商舖資料研究部數據顯示，今年第3季4大核心區(中環、銅鑼灣、旺角及尖沙咀)共有620間吉舖，整體空置率約8.8%，其中旺角區共有276間吉舖，屬4區中吉舖數量最多的地區，空置率約8.3%；尖沙咀區共有141間吉舖，數量排行第2，空置率約9.9%；而中環及銅鑼灣區分別有130間及73間吉舖，空置率分別約10.0%及7.4%。
4大核心區一、二線街吉舖調查結果顯示，尖沙咀區一線街商舖空置率約7.8%，當中加連威老道（彌敦道至漆咸道一段）共有22間吉舖，空置率約20.4%，空置情況相當嚴峻，成為4大核心區中吉舖數量最多的街道。而區內二線街空置率則約10.5%。
銅鑼灣區一線街空置率約7.2%，當中利園山道及波斯富街分別各有7間吉舖，空置率分別約12.3%及11.7%；二線街空置率則約7.4%。
中環區一線街空置率約6.8%，當中威靈頓街共有11間吉舖，空置率約9.7%；二線街空置率則約6.0%。
而旺角區一線街空置率約5.8%，當中西洋菜街（登打士街至亞皆老街一段）共有8間吉舖，空置率約8.4%；二線街空置率則約5.7%。
美聯旺舖董事盧展豪表示，第4季屬傳統淡季，料舖位租賃成交量減少。另外，部分租約亦將陸續到期，估計部分4大核心區的零售商可能因減低經營成本而縮舖，或將零售據點遷往民生地區，料吉舖短期內未必獲承租，因此預期第4季4大核心區舖位空置率有機會輕微上升，估計升幅在1個百分點之內。此外，利是封、散貨場等短租客將把握聖誕及新年黃金檔期，預計短租個案將陸續增加。
盧展豪續指，舖位租金仍然向下調整中，不過下跌速度已較早前減慢，預期第4季4大核心區商舖租金料會下跌約10%至15%。
【on.cc東網專訊】 根據美聯工商舖資料研究部數據顯示，今年第3季4大核心區(中環、銅鑼灣、旺角及尖沙咀)共有620間吉舖，整體空置率約8.8%，其中旺角區共有276間吉舖，屬4區中吉舖數量最多的地區，空置率約8.3%；尖沙咀區共有141間吉舖，數量排行第2，空置率約9.9%；而中環及銅鑼灣區分別有130間及73間吉舖，空置率分別約10.0%及7.4%。
4大核心區一、二線街吉舖調查結果顯示，尖沙咀區一線街商舖空置率約7.8%，當中加連威老道（彌敦道至漆咸道一段）共有22間吉舖，空置率約20.4%，空置情況相當嚴峻，成為4大核心區中吉舖數量最多的街道。而區內二線街空置率則約10.5%。
銅鑼灣區一線街空置率約7.2%，當中利園山道及波斯富街分別各有7間吉舖，空置率分別約12.3%及11.7%；二線街空置率則約7.4%。
中環區一線街空置率約6.8%，當中威靈頓街共有11間吉舖，空置率約9.7%；二線街空置率則約6.0%。
而旺角區一線街空置率約5.8%，當中西洋菜街（登打士街至亞皆老街一段）共有8間吉舖，空置率約8.4%；二線街空置率則約5.7%。
美聯旺舖董事盧展豪表示，第4季屬傳統淡季，料舖位租賃成交量減少。另外，部分租約亦將陸續到期，估計部分4大核心區的零售商可能因減低經營成本而縮舖，或將零售據點遷往民生地區，料吉舖短期內未必獲承租，因此預期第4季4大核心區舖位空置率有機會輕微上升，估計升幅在1個百分點之內。此外，利是封、散貨場等短租客將把握聖誕及新年黃金檔期，預計短租個案將陸續增加。
盧展豪續指，舖位租金仍然向下調整中，不過下跌速度已較早前減慢，預期第4季4大核心區商舖租金料會下跌約10%至15%。
收市10大要知：大媽掟港股 道期靠穩
on.cc東網專訊
【on.cc東網專訊】 港股收市後，市場焦點轉至香港時間今晚8時30分，美國將公布9月個人消費支出、個人收入。道指期貨現升22點。以下為「收市10大要知」新聞：
1、港股5連跌 港股通現走資
港股在10月最後一個交易日反覆偏軟，連跌5個交易日。恒生指數早段跌穿22,800點後迅速反彈，一度倒升近百點，高見23,045點；尾市有回吐，2萬3關得而復失，而且未能保住升市收場。恒指收市報22,934點，跌20點或0.09%。國企指數收報9,559點，升44點或0.46%。主板全日成交619億港元，港股通有資金流出，全日餘額106.35億人民幣；滬股通餘額127.67億人民幣。
傳統股災月埋單，恒指累跌363點，跌幅1.55%。國指累跌22點或0.23%。
友邦保險拖低大市，受銀聯限制內地人海外刷卡購買投資相關類壽險影響，友邦早段大插逾7%，隨後跌勢喘定，收報48.95港元，跌4.8%，是表現最差藍籌，拖低恒指91點。保誠及宏利分別跌2.8%及0.6%。
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2、滬指收企3100 10月升3%
滬深股市低開後持續偏軟，滬綜指開市跌穿3,100關，午後兩市跌幅收窄，滬綜指3,100關失而復得，全日收跌3點或0.12%，報3,100點；深成指跌6點或0.06%，報10,704點；滬深300指跌3點或0.12%，報3,336點；創業板指跌5點或0.26%，報2,159點。如單計10月份，滬指升3.18%。
滬市成交1,784億元人民幣，深市成交2,567億元人民幣；滬股通現淨餘額逾127億元人民幣，意味有資金流入。
板塊方面，船舶製造股跌1.9%；基因測序概念股跌1.44%；建築節能概念股跌1.42%；物資外貿股跌1.34%；電力股跌0.75%；石油股跌0.71%。至於次新股升1.73%；紡織機械股升1.6%；黃金概念股升1.58%；水泥股升1.25%。
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3、歐股開市受壓 西卡集團勁升12%
美國大選不明朗因素增加，歐股受壓，當中英國富時100指數報6,969點，跌26點或0.38%；法國CAC指數報4,530點，跌18點或0.41%；德國DAX指數報10,650點，跌45點或0.42%。
個股方面，英國廣告公關公司WPP集團公布第3季可比較淨銷售按年增加2.8%；期內收入按年升23.4%至36.1億英鎊，公司股價升3.69%。
瑞士西卡集團(Sika)勁升12%，此前傳出集團控股家族擬舉行三方會談以解決目前僵局。當地法院上周回應集團管理層要求，禁止該家族向法國Saint Gobain出售控制性股權。
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4、傳金管局擬將部分外儲投資基礎設施
外電引述香港金融管理局助理總裁(外事)李永誠指，由於許多政府債券的收益率為負數，香港金融管理局正考慮將部分的外匯儲備投資於基礎設施，以提高回報。
李永誠透露，金管局正在審視有關的基礎設施投資建議，計劃在未來數月內完成交易。
金管局的外匯基金用於保持香港貨幣金融體系穩定，截至6月底的總資產為3.54萬億港元。
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5、傳滙控擬釋放50億英鎊交行持股資本
外媒傳滙豐控股(00005
)計劃釋放50億英鎊(約472億港元)的交通銀行(03328)股份相關緩衝資本。
據英國《星期日泰晤士報》報道，滙控向英國監管機構提出建議，要求放寬其持有的交行股份而所作的資本儲備，事成將可釋放約50億英鎊的流動資金。
報道稱，雖然滙控認為中國經濟正在放緩，但英國監管在風險評估方面過分悲觀，若滙控成功釋放50億英鎊資本，數十億英鎊可用以放貸，股東將要求增派股息。環球各大銀行被迫累積巨額儲備，以防範金融危險，不過銀行一向認為過多儲備逼使它們減少貸款業務，影響復甦，增加發生新金融危機的風險。
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6、中資壓境！港金融業10年須建500萬呎寫字樓
仲量聯行最新報告指出，大型歐美金融機構正收縮在香港的規模，但相信對寫字樓市場的影響，將被內地金融機構擴張而抵銷，預期金融業於未來10年，需要額外500萬方呎寫字樓樓面應付擴充，預計內地企業於5年後，於中環寫字樓佔比例將升至28%或以上。
該行研究部主管馬安平表示，內地金融企業持續來港擴充，預期未來10年增加5.5萬個職位，需要額外約500萬方呎寫字樓樓面。另基金管理、金融科技及保險業均對寫字樓有很大需求。
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7、新盤專輯：ONE HOMANTIN及富豪‧悅庭有消息
何文田站通車帶動區內新盤銷情理想，會德豐地產常務董事黃光耀表示，旗下區內ONE HOMANTIN於最近3個月售出211伙，累售311伙，套現37億港元，平均呎價逾2萬元。
他指出，因應銷情理想及何文田站啟用，該盤提前推出樓王第6及7座應市，今日將加推80伙的價單，價單平均呎價24,474元，折實平均呎價19,711元，加價1至2%。因應樓花期縮短，該盤亦減少1%即供折扣。
百利保(00617)執行董事兼首席營運官范統稱，旗下元朗洪水橋富豪‧悅庭由11月5日起至明年1月31日內買入一幢洋房，首3位買家將可獲得價值43萬港元的BMW i3電動車1部。他稱明年1月料加價，但加幅未定，現時共有6幢洋房已公布價單，稍後會再加推4幢。
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8、沙田第一城首9個月租金急升8.5% 最突出
中原地產研究部高級聯席董事黃良昇指出，10大藍籌屋苑中，有9個屋苑實呎租已升穿去年年底水平。沙田第一城的升幅最顯著，9月份租金錄37.2港元，較2015年12月份的34.3元大幅上升8.5%。而茶果嶺麗港城升7.7%、天水圍嘉湖山莊升6.3%、柴灣杏花邨升3.6%、鰂魚涌太古城升3.4%、藍田滙景花園升3.3%、荔枝角美孚新邨升2.7%、鴨脷洲海怡半島升2.2%及紅磡黃埔花園升1.5%。只有鰂魚涌康怡花園尚未升穿去年年底水平，9個月累跌3.6%。
而10大藍籌屋苑中，有9個屋苑的租金升幅均高於全港整體租金升幅1.3%，顯示大型屋苑帶領整體租金止跌回升。
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9、差估署：9月私樓價挑戰高峰 細單位最勁
差餉物業估價署最新數據顯示，截至9月份私人住宅售價指數報295.5點，按月再上升約2.8%，連升6個月，並較去年9月高峰期的306.1點，僅低約3.46%；今年首9個月該指數已上升約3.7%，為去年10月後最高。
至於實用面積1,075方呎及以下中小型住宅的售價指數報296.5點，按月上升約2.8%，首9個月已升約3.6%；而實用面積1,075方呎以上大型住宅單位的售價指數報273.3點，按月亦升約2.5%，以首9個月計，則上升約4.2%，反映大單位走勢較佳。
而各區實用面積431方呎以下細單位平均呎價，其中以港島區按月升幅最理想，平均呎價突破1.3萬元，升至13,109元，按月升約1.4%，今年首9個月回升達4.27%。
至於首9個月升幅最理想為九龍區的細單位，九龍區平均呎價約10,714元，按月升約0.38%，但首9個月已升達6.7%，呎價為去年9月後最高。而新界區平均呎價約9,807元，按月升約1.2%，而首9個月回升約4.4%。
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10、香港樓價或半年內再破頂？
香港樓價指數持續上升，樓價點look？
會德豐地產常務董事黃光耀︰樓價會平穏向好，具體走勢亦要視乎美國會否落實加息，但相信香港樓價有機會於未來半年內破頂再創新高。
美聯物業住宅部行政總裁布少明︰未來數個月樓價繼續上升，二手盤源減少，料單是第4季樓價再升7%，直至年底樓價返回去年高位。另未來美國加息、中國內地環濟環境，以及香港經濟亦為影響樓價走勢的主要因素，雖然零售業年初時轉差，但本地失業率仍然低企，市場對中細價樓有需求，帶動近月樓價向上。
2014年上車置業的勢道行者博客Rondy：我覺得樓市仲會繼續升﹗香港樓價實在太頑強，正因失業率低企，而且單位供應持續短缺，每年新建單位遠未滿足市場需求。
招銀國際策略師蘇沛豐：我早幾個月沽咗側魚涌自住盤之後就租番同區單位住，沽完佢仲繼續升，真係有啲揼心﹗我其實喺小朋友出世後，想換個實用面積600呎或以上單位，但同區講緊起碼要900萬樓上，完全唔抵買。
【on.cc東網專訊】 港股收市後，市場焦點轉至香港時間今晚8時30分，美國將公布9月個人消費支出、個人收入。道指期貨現升22點。以下為「收市10大要知」新聞：
1、港股5連跌 港股通現走資
港股在10月最後一個交易日反覆偏軟，連跌5個交易日。恒生指數早段跌穿22,800點後迅速反彈，一度倒升近百點，高見23,045點；尾市有回吐，2萬3關得而復失，而且未能保住升市收場。恒指收市報22,934點，跌20點或0.09%。國企指數收報9,559點，升44點或0.46%。主板全日成交619億港元，港股通有資金流出，全日餘額106.35億人民幣；滬股通餘額127.67億人民幣。
傳統股災月埋單，恒指累跌363點，跌幅1.55%。國指累跌22點或0.23%。
友邦保險拖低大市，受銀聯限制內地人海外刷卡購買投資相關類壽險影響，友邦早段大插逾7%，隨後跌勢喘定，收報48.95港元，跌4.8%，是表現最差藍籌，拖低恒指91點。保誠及宏利分別跌2.8%及0.6%。
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2、滬指收企3100 10月升3%
滬深股市低開後持續偏軟，滬綜指開市跌穿3,100關，午後兩市跌幅收窄，滬綜指3,100關失而復得，全日收跌3點或0.12%，報3,100點；深成指跌6點或0.06%，報10,704點；滬深300指跌3點或0.12%，報3,336點；創業板指跌5點或0.26%，報2,159點。如單計10月份，滬指升3.18%。
滬市成交1,784億元人民幣，深市成交2,567億元人民幣；滬股通現淨餘額逾127億元人民幣，意味有資金流入。
板塊方面，船舶製造股跌1.9%；基因測序概念股跌1.44%；建築節能概念股跌1.42%；物資外貿股跌1.34%；電力股跌0.75%；石油股跌0.71%。至於次新股升1.73%；紡織機械股升1.6%；黃金概念股升1.58%；水泥股升1.25%。
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3、歐股開市受壓 西卡集團勁升12%
美國大選不明朗因素增加，歐股受壓，當中英國富時100指數報6,969點，跌26點或0.38%；法國CAC指數報4,530點，跌18點或0.41%；德國DAX指數報10,650點，跌45點或0.42%。
個股方面，英國廣告公關公司WPP集團公布第3季可比較淨銷售按年增加2.8%；期內收入按年升23.4%至36.1億英鎊，公司股價升3.69%。
瑞士西卡集團(Sika)勁升12%，此前傳出集團控股家族擬舉行三方會談以解決目前僵局。當地法院上周回應集團管理層要求，禁止該家族向法國Saint Gobain出售控制性股權。
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4、傳金管局擬將部分外儲投資基礎設施
外電引述香港金融管理局助理總裁(外事)李永誠指，由於許多政府債券的收益率為負數，香港金融管理局正考慮將部分的外匯儲備投資於基礎設施，以提高回報。
李永誠透露，金管局正在審視有關的基礎設施投資建議，計劃在未來數月內完成交易。
金管局的外匯基金用於保持香港貨幣金融體系穩定，截至6月底的總資產為3.54萬億港元。
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5、傳滙控擬釋放50億英鎊交行持股資本
外媒傳滙豐控股(00005
)計劃釋放50億英鎊(約472億港元)的交通銀行(03328)股份相關緩衝資本。據英國《星期日泰晤士報》報道，滙控向英國監管機構提出建議，要求放寬其持有的交行股份而所作的資本儲備，事成將可釋放約50億英鎊的流動資金。
報道稱，雖然滙控認為中國經濟正在放緩，但英國監管在風險評估方面過分悲觀，若滙控成功釋放50億英鎊資本，數十億英鎊可用以放貸，股東將要求增派股息。環球各大銀行被迫累積巨額儲備，以防範金融危險，不過銀行一向認為過多儲備逼使它們減少貸款業務，影響復甦，增加發生新金融危機的風險。
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6、中資壓境！港金融業10年須建500萬呎寫字樓
仲量聯行最新報告指出，大型歐美金融機構正收縮在香港的規模，但相信對寫字樓市場的影響，將被內地金融機構擴張而抵銷，預期金融業於未來10年，需要額外500萬方呎寫字樓樓面應付擴充，預計內地企業於5年後，於中環寫字樓佔比例將升至28%或以上。
該行研究部主管馬安平表示，內地金融企業持續來港擴充，預期未來10年增加5.5萬個職位，需要額外約500萬方呎寫字樓樓面。另基金管理、金融科技及保險業均對寫字樓有很大需求。
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7、新盤專輯：ONE HOMANTIN及富豪‧悅庭有消息
何文田站通車帶動區內新盤銷情理想，會德豐地產常務董事黃光耀表示，旗下區內ONE HOMANTIN於最近3個月售出211伙，累售311伙，套現37億港元，平均呎價逾2萬元。
他指出，因應銷情理想及何文田站啟用，該盤提前推出樓王第6及7座應市，今日將加推80伙的價單，價單平均呎價24,474元，折實平均呎價19,711元，加價1至2%。因應樓花期縮短，該盤亦減少1%即供折扣。
百利保(00617
)執行董事兼首席營運官范統稱，旗下元朗洪水橋富豪‧悅庭由11月5日起至明年1月31日內買入一幢洋房，首3位買家將可獲得價值43萬港元的BMW i3電動車1部。他稱明年1月料加價，但加幅未定，現時共有6幢洋房已公布價單，稍後會再加推4幢。─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─
8、沙田第一城首9個月租金急升8.5% 最突出
中原地產研究部高級聯席董事黃良昇指出，10大藍籌屋苑中，有9個屋苑實呎租已升穿去年年底水平。沙田第一城的升幅最顯著，9月份租金錄37.2港元，較2015年12月份的34.3元大幅上升8.5%。而茶果嶺麗港城升7.7%、天水圍嘉湖山莊升6.3%、柴灣杏花邨升3.6%、鰂魚涌太古城升3.4%、藍田滙景花園升3.3%、荔枝角美孚新邨升2.7%、鴨脷洲海怡半島升2.2%及紅磡黃埔花園升1.5%。只有鰂魚涌康怡花園尚未升穿去年年底水平，9個月累跌3.6%。
而10大藍籌屋苑中，有9個屋苑的租金升幅均高於全港整體租金升幅1.3%，顯示大型屋苑帶領整體租金止跌回升。
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9、差估署：9月私樓價挑戰高峰 細單位最勁
差餉物業估價署最新數據顯示，截至9月份私人住宅售價指數報295.5點，按月再上升約2.8%，連升6個月，並較去年9月高峰期的306.1點，僅低約3.46%；今年首9個月該指數已上升約3.7%，為去年10月後最高。
至於實用面積1,075方呎及以下中小型住宅的售價指數報296.5點，按月上升約2.8%，首9個月已升約3.6%；而實用面積1,075方呎以上大型住宅單位的售價指數報273.3點，按月亦升約2.5%，以首9個月計，則上升約4.2%，反映大單位走勢較佳。
而各區實用面積431方呎以下細單位平均呎價，其中以港島區按月升幅最理想，平均呎價突破1.3萬元，升至13,109元，按月升約1.4%，今年首9個月回升達4.27%。
至於首9個月升幅最理想為九龍區的細單位，九龍區平均呎價約10,714元，按月升約0.38%，但首9個月已升達6.7%，呎價為去年9月後最高。而新界區平均呎價約9,807元，按月升約1.2%，而首9個月回升約4.4%。
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10、香港樓價或半年內再破頂？
香港樓價指數持續上升，樓價點look？
會德豐地產常務董事黃光耀︰樓價會平穏向好，具體走勢亦要視乎美國會否落實加息，但相信香港樓價有機會於未來半年內破頂再創新高。
美聯物業住宅部行政總裁布少明︰未來數個月樓價繼續上升，二手盤源減少，料單是第4季樓價再升7%，直至年底樓價返回去年高位。另未來美國加息、中國內地環濟環境，以及香港經濟亦為影響樓價走勢的主要因素，雖然零售業年初時轉差，但本地失業率仍然低企，市場對中細價樓有需求，帶動近月樓價向上。
2014年上車置業的勢道行者博客Rondy：我覺得樓市仲會繼續升﹗香港樓價實在太頑強，正因失業率低企，而且單位供應持續短缺，每年新建單位遠未滿足市場需求。
招銀國際策略師蘇沛豐：我早幾個月沽咗側魚涌自住盤之後就租番同區單位住，沽完佢仲繼續升，真係有啲揼心﹗我其實喺小朋友出世後，想換個實用面積600呎或以上單位，但同區講緊起碼要900萬樓上，完全唔抵買。
九巴八折回程拍卡有上限 宜帶多張八達通
on.cc東網專訊
【on.cc東網專訊】 九巴下月5日起推出為期88天的乘車優惠，乘客只要即日來回以同一張八達通，乘搭同一路線或同一組別路線，即可享用回程車費8折，折扣優惠涉及297條九巴獨營路線組別。不過要留意，乘客在去程與回程之間，同一張八達通不能有9次以上的任何拍卡記錄，包括乘車、購物、增值、停車場出入記錄等，如果每日經常使用八達通的市民，可能就要準備多一張八達通。
是次優惠涵蓋同一組別路線，以來往建生至灣仔(北)的960路線為例，同組別的960A、960B、960P、960S、960X亦有優惠，故假設乘客上班時乘坐960車費20.8港元計算，回程時只需16.6港元，減少4.2港元，每月隨時可節省百元車費。
【on.cc東網專訊】 九巴下月5日起推出為期88天的乘車優惠，乘客只要即日來回以同一張八達通，乘搭同一路線或同一組別路線，即可享用回程車費8折，折扣優惠涉及297條九巴獨營路線組別。不過要留意，乘客在去程與回程之間，同一張八達通不能有9次以上的任何拍卡記錄，包括乘車、購物、增值、停車場出入記錄等，如果每日經常使用八達通的市民，可能就要準備多一張八達通。
是次優惠涵蓋同一組別路線，以來往建生至灣仔(北)的960路線為例，同組別的960A、960B、960P、960S、960X亦有優惠，故假設乘客上班時乘坐960車費20.8港元計算，回程時只需16.6港元，減少4.2港元，每月隨時可節省百元車費。
僅60%社福機構公開財務 查閲報告留難多
on.cc東網專訊
【on.cc東網專訊】 社會福利署自2000年開始，對受資助社福機構實行整筆撥款制度，以取代過往的實報實銷，當中要求機構必須對外公開財務及薪酬報告。有工會調查發現，僅60%機構跟從上述指示，而索取報告的過程亦很繁瑣。工會曾要求社署將所有受資助機構的財務報告上載到網站，或向違反的機構訂立罰則，卻遭到拒絕。
社會福利機構員工會在去年用了9個月的時間訪問逾160間社福機構，查閱機構的周年財務及高層薪酬報告，遇到各式各樣不合理的關卡，包括要求事先預約、登記身份證、在查閲時不容許影印或拍照等。工會幹事邱智恆怒轟，有機構更以普通公司年報應付查詢者：「最離譜係話係內部資料，不便透露。也有啲虛稱擺咗上網，或者影印3頁收50蚊！」
工會早前亦在查閱薪酬報告時，揭發這些社福機構的「肥上瘦下」現象，不少機構的總幹事年支逾10萬港元獎金及數十萬的津貼，但前線員工的薪金水平卻長期低於同級公務員水平。邱狠批，「正正係黑幕唔想揚出去，唔見得人，其實好多機構嘅儲備水平遠多於社署規定嘅25%，佢哋唔想畀人知，驚影響籌款！」但資助涉公帑數以百億計，邱指公眾有必要且有權監察。
工會之後向社署投訴，部分機構如明愛願意交出副本，但耆康會仍然拒絕查閱，保良局等機構則在接獲查詢後數天仍未回覆。邱指自從工會揭發事後，今年雖普遍可供查閱，但手續明顯變得更加繁瑣。工會亦曾要求社署將所有機構財務報告集中上載網站，卻遭到拒絕，「佢哋推卸話呢啲係機構責任！」邱慨嘆如果逐間機構索取，監察成本之高難以想像。
工會今早約見立法會議員進行申訴，涂謹申形容事件匪夷所思，直指負責的社署官員失職，需面臨紀律處分。其他在席議員亦關注整筆撥款制度下，政府失去過往對資助機構人事及薪酬編制的直接監察權，「基本上整筆錢係任用，導致前線員工人工撳得就撳，士氣大減，而且處處隱瞞！」社福界議員邵家臻形容，整筆撥款制度16年來如同災難，又批評社署拒絕集中公開資助機構財務報告的做法無理，他們承諾開會後要求社署交代。
【on.cc東網專訊】 社會福利署自2000年開始，對受資助社福機構實行整筆撥款制度，以取代過往的實報實銷，當中要求機構必須對外公開財務及薪酬報告。有工會調查發現，僅60%機構跟從上述指示，而索取報告的過程亦很繁瑣。工會曾要求社署將所有受資助機構的財務報告上載到網站，或向違反的機構訂立罰則，卻遭到拒絕。
社會福利機構員工會在去年用了9個月的時間訪問逾160間社福機構，查閱機構的周年財務及高層薪酬報告，遇到各式各樣不合理的關卡，包括要求事先預約、登記身份證、在查閲時不容許影印或拍照等。工會幹事邱智恆怒轟，有機構更以普通公司年報應付查詢者：「最離譜係話係內部資料，不便透露。也有啲虛稱擺咗上網，或者影印3頁收50蚊！」
工會早前亦在查閱薪酬報告時，揭發這些社福機構的「肥上瘦下」現象，不少機構的總幹事年支逾10萬港元獎金及數十萬的津貼，但前線員工的薪金水平卻長期低於同級公務員水平。邱狠批，「正正係黑幕唔想揚出去，唔見得人，其實好多機構嘅儲備水平遠多於社署規定嘅25%，佢哋唔想畀人知，驚影響籌款！」但資助涉公帑數以百億計，邱指公眾有必要且有權監察。
工會之後向社署投訴，部分機構如明愛願意交出副本，但耆康會仍然拒絕查閱，保良局等機構則在接獲查詢後數天仍未回覆。邱指自從工會揭發事後，今年雖普遍可供查閱，但手續明顯變得更加繁瑣。工會亦曾要求社署將所有機構財務報告集中上載網站，卻遭到拒絕，「佢哋推卸話呢啲係機構責任！」邱慨嘆如果逐間機構索取，監察成本之高難以想像。
工會今早約見立法會議員進行申訴，涂謹申形容事件匪夷所思，直指負責的社署官員失職，需面臨紀律處分。其他在席議員亦關注整筆撥款制度下，政府失去過往對資助機構人事及薪酬編制的直接監察權，「基本上整筆錢係任用，導致前線員工人工撳得就撳，士氣大減，而且處處隱瞞！」社福界議員邵家臻形容，整筆撥款制度16年來如同災難，又批評社署拒絕集中公開資助機構財務報告的做法無理，他們承諾開會後要求社署交代。
樓價點look︰蘇沛豐早沽自住樓好揼心
on.cc東網專訊
【on.cc東網專訊】 差估署公布9月份私人住宅售價指數按月再上升約2.8%，連升6個月，為去年10月後最高。
招銀國際策略師蘇沛豐表示：「我早幾個月沽咗側魚涌自住盤之後就租番同區單位住，沽完佢仲繼續升，真係有啲揼心﹗我其實喺小朋友出世後，想換個實用面積600呎或以上單位，但同區講緊起碼要900萬樓上，完全唔抵買。」
他續指：「依家實力最弱嘅買家都衝晒入市，係一種警號，我覺得遲啲樓價有機會回調，但幅度真係唔知，依家唯有見步行步。」
【on.cc東網專訊】 差估署公布9月份私人住宅售價指數按月再上升約2.8%，連升6個月，為去年10月後最高。
招銀國際策略師蘇沛豐表示：「我早幾個月沽咗側魚涌自住盤之後就租番同區單位住，沽完佢仲繼續升，真係有啲揼心﹗我其實喺小朋友出世後，想換個實用面積600呎或以上單位，但同區講緊起碼要900萬樓上，完全唔抵買。」
他續指：「依家實力最弱嘅買家都衝晒入市，係一種警號，我覺得遲啲樓價有機會回調，但幅度真係唔知，依家唯有見步行步。」
Gold Is Going To Play A Role In A New Monetary System. Interview Koos Jansen by ‘Dutch Financial Times’
www.zerohedge.com
by BullionStar
Submitted by Koos Jansen from BullionStar.com
In the Netherlands we have a financial newspaper that prints on pink paper and is named “Het Financieel Dagblad”. Basically it’s the Dutch equivalent of the Financial Times. A few weeks ago I was interviewed by two of their reporters, Joost van Kuppeveld and Lenneke Arts. Today the interview was published as part of a series of interviews with gold experts, among others, with myself and Aerdt Houben, Director Financial Markets at the Dutch central bank (DNB).
Perhaps not surprisingly I disagree with several statements of Houben in his interview, to which I would like to respond in a forthcoming post. For now, you can read my interview below. In case readers didn’t know my real name is Jan Nieuwenhuijs, and Koos Jansen is my Internet alias. Het Financieel Dagblad preferred to disclose my real name.
Original source at Financieel Dagblad, published 29 October 2016. Translated by Koos Jansen.
"The whole world is now in the same boat. Everywhere there are low interest rates and on all continents money is printed. Only the United States has paused printing for the moment.
There are many flaws in fiat money. You can print it without limitations, which is politically too tempting. Fiat money printing was used to save the financial system in 2008, but since then nothing has changed. Banks are not split. In a next crisis it’s going to end badly with paper money. There will be significant inflation.
Gold is a hard currency. It can't be printed - like fiat money. It is divisible and it does not perish. It retains its purchasing power in the long term. If it’s in the center of the monetary system, it will also be more stable in terms of purchasing power in the short and medium term. That has to do with economic principles; it is a commodity.
In that respect I feel safe by keeping a portion of my savings in physical gold. I am protected from economic shocks. If the euro falls gold rises, and so my purchasing power is maintained.
Something has to happen in the international monetary system. It cannot stay centred around the dollar. Since 1971 – when the dollar was detached from gold - the United States has an exorbitant privilege. Most trade in the world is settled in dollars. Therefore, there is a huge demand for dollars in the world, and the US can simply print these dollars.
In the new system gold is going play a role. Look at the developments in Europe. The Netherlands and Germany get their gold back from America.
Austria and Belgium are also repatriating. Russia and China buy a lot of gold.
The Chinese have too many dollars in foreign exchange reserves and are therefore at the mercy of the whims of US policy. The transition to a new system will be gradual. No one wants a new shock.
With my blog I try to fill the gap between mainstream media, who do not understand gold, and conspiracy theorists. I always try to seek the truth. Because if we get a new financial crisis, we must know the truth. The Dutch central bank shouldn’t state it holds 600 tonnes if it can’t show us the audit reports and gold bar list. That's why I'm pushing for the audit reports and gold bars list to be publicly released, but those requests find a lot of resistance at my national bank.
While you would think they can be fully transparent. What’s there to hide?"
by BullionStar
Submitted by Koos Jansen from BullionStar.com
In the Netherlands we have a financial newspaper that prints on pink paper and is named “Het Financieel Dagblad”. Basically it’s the Dutch equivalent of the Financial Times. A few weeks ago I was interviewed by two of their reporters, Joost van Kuppeveld and Lenneke Arts. Today the interview was published as part of a series of interviews with gold experts, among others, with myself and Aerdt Houben, Director Financial Markets at the Dutch central bank (DNB).
Perhaps not surprisingly I disagree with several statements of Houben in his interview, to which I would like to respond in a forthcoming post. For now, you can read my interview below. In case readers didn’t know my real name is Jan Nieuwenhuijs, and Koos Jansen is my Internet alias. Het Financieel Dagblad preferred to disclose my real name.
Original source at Financieel Dagblad, published 29 October 2016. Translated by Koos Jansen.
Gold Is Going To Play A Role In A New Monetary System
Jan Nieuwenhuijs
Profession: Precious metals analyst at BullionStar.com
Owns gold since 2010
"The whole world is now in the same boat. Everywhere there are low interest rates and on all continents money is printed. Only the United States has paused printing for the moment.
There are many flaws in fiat money. You can print it without limitations, which is politically too tempting. Fiat money printing was used to save the financial system in 2008, but since then nothing has changed. Banks are not split. In a next crisis it’s going to end badly with paper money. There will be significant inflation.
Gold is a hard currency. It can't be printed - like fiat money. It is divisible and it does not perish. It retains its purchasing power in the long term. If it’s in the center of the monetary system, it will also be more stable in terms of purchasing power in the short and medium term. That has to do with economic principles; it is a commodity.
In that respect I feel safe by keeping a portion of my savings in physical gold. I am protected from economic shocks. If the euro falls gold rises, and so my purchasing power is maintained.
Something has to happen in the international monetary system. It cannot stay centred around the dollar. Since 1971 – when the dollar was detached from gold - the United States has an exorbitant privilege. Most trade in the world is settled in dollars. Therefore, there is a huge demand for dollars in the world, and the US can simply print these dollars.
In the new system gold is going play a role. Look at the developments in Europe. The Netherlands and Germany get their gold back from America.
Austria and Belgium are also repatriating. Russia and China buy a lot of gold.
The Chinese have too many dollars in foreign exchange reserves and are therefore at the mercy of the whims of US policy. The transition to a new system will be gradual. No one wants a new shock.
With my blog I try to fill the gap between mainstream media, who do not understand gold, and conspiracy theorists. I always try to seek the truth. Because if we get a new financial crisis, we must know the truth. The Dutch central bank shouldn’t state it holds 600 tonnes if it can’t show us the audit reports and gold bar list. That's why I'm pushing for the audit reports and gold bars list to be publicly released, but those requests find a lot of resistance at my national bank.
While you would think they can be fully transparent. What’s there to hide?"
蘇子：金價試叩千三關
on.cc東網專訊
【on.cc東網專訊】 資深市場人士蘇子在東方產經「群星匯」專欄表示，目前美國的主流媒體普遍認為「狂人」特朗普氣數已盡，不可能入主白宮。但不要忘記，特朗普的支持者以狂熱稱著，即使有甚麼對特朗普負面的消息，亦難以阻攔這些狂熱支持者向特朗普投票，因此，目前仍難言特朗普一定不能入主白宮。
除此之外，上周五美國聯邦調查局(FBI)突然宣布重新調查民主黨總統候選人希拉妮的電郵風波，令本來勝券在握的希拉妮之大好勢頭逆轉過來，美股亦因此由升轉跌，因電郵風波勢必令特朗普成功入主白宮的機會大增。
特朗普可能成為新一屆美國總統，已肯定會成為市場的重大風險事件，此風險事件其實更甚於本周四公布的聯儲局及英倫銀行之議息結果，甚至周五美國的非農就業職位數據。
事實上，之前的一項研究估計，一旦特朗普成功當選總統，標指、英國及亞洲股市將調整10至15%不等。故具備避險功能的黃金，在目前開始有利特朗普選情的勢頭下，宜順勢買入，目標上望突破1,300美元關口。
【on.cc東網專訊】 資深市場人士蘇子在東方產經「群星匯」專欄表示，目前美國的主流媒體普遍認為「狂人」特朗普氣數已盡，不可能入主白宮。但不要忘記，特朗普的支持者以狂熱稱著，即使有甚麼對特朗普負面的消息，亦難以阻攔這些狂熱支持者向特朗普投票，因此，目前仍難言特朗普一定不能入主白宮。
除此之外，上周五美國聯邦調查局(FBI)突然宣布重新調查民主黨總統候選人希拉妮的電郵風波，令本來勝券在握的希拉妮之大好勢頭逆轉過來，美股亦因此由升轉跌，因電郵風波勢必令特朗普成功入主白宮的機會大增。
特朗普可能成為新一屆美國總統，已肯定會成為市場的重大風險事件，此風險事件其實更甚於本周四公布的聯儲局及英倫銀行之議息結果，甚至周五美國的非農就業職位數據。
事實上，之前的一項研究估計，一旦特朗普成功當選總統，標指、英國及亞洲股市將調整10至15%不等。故具備避險功能的黃金，在目前開始有利特朗普選情的勢頭下，宜順勢買入，目標上望突破1,300美元關口。
奇招抑樓價 深圳買賣樓要先「罰抄」
on.cc東網專訊
【on.cc東網專訊】 內地傳媒報道，為嚴控深圳房地產市場交易風險，從10月28日起，無論是新盤或二手樓、預售的買賣合同都加多了一條「聲明」：確認買賣雙方都提供相關真實的證明材料。該「聲明」需雙方手抄一遍並簽字。
報道指出，該規定是根據10月4日出台的「深八條」擬定，簽署買賣合同前要核查是否符合購房條件，對不符合條件的，市主管部門將不予辦理預售商品房備案、一手房限售及二手房交易過戶等手續。對提供虛假信息、材料進行交易的，該交易行為無效。
購房條件意指深圳戶籍家庭(含部分家庭成員為深戶)限購2套；深圳戶籍成年單身人士(含離異)限購1套；連續繳滿五年以上個稅或社保的非深戶籍家庭限購1套。
【on.cc東網專訊】 內地傳媒報道，為嚴控深圳房地產市場交易風險，從10月28日起，無論是新盤或二手樓、預售的買賣合同都加多了一條「聲明」：確認買賣雙方都提供相關真實的證明材料。該「聲明」需雙方手抄一遍並簽字。
報道指出，該規定是根據10月4日出台的「深八條」擬定，簽署買賣合同前要核查是否符合購房條件，對不符合條件的，市主管部門將不予辦理預售商品房備案、一手房限售及二手房交易過戶等手續。對提供虛假信息、材料進行交易的，該交易行為無效。
購房條件意指深圳戶籍家庭(含部分家庭成員為深戶)限購2套；深圳戶籍成年單身人士(含離異)限購1套；連續繳滿五年以上個稅或社保的非深戶籍家庭限購1套。
2016年10月30日 星期日
炒金者注意！「上海金」你又玩過未？
on.cc東網專訊
【on.cc東網專訊】 內媒報道，杜拜黃金和商品交易所(DGCX)宣布，已與上海黃金交易所達成「上海金」基準價授權使用協議。根據協議，上海金交所授權杜拜黃金與商品交易所在其開發以離岸人民幣計價的黃金期貨合約中，使用「上海金」基準價作為該合約的現金結算價。迪拜黃金和商品交易所成為首個利用「上海金」開發衍生品的國際交易所。
【on.cc東網專訊】 內媒報道，杜拜黃金和商品交易所(DGCX)宣布，已與上海黃金交易所達成「上海金」基準價授權使用協議。根據協議，上海金交所授權杜拜黃金與商品交易所在其開發以離岸人民幣計價的黃金期貨合約中，使用「上海金」基準價作為該合約的現金結算價。迪拜黃金和商品交易所成為首個利用「上海金」開發衍生品的國際交易所。
靠指紋可登入銀行App Android及iOS都得
方便得來又會出新漏洞 !
on.cc東網專訊【on.cc東網專訊】 渣打銀行(香港)率先推出指紋登入(Touch Login)銀行帳戶服務，客戶明日可開始使用，適用於Android及蘋果手機。渣打香港客戶明天進入手機銀行App「Breeze」後，將會收到App的更新通知，更新後登記1次，以後登入App只需手指輕按手機HOME鍵便可，全程毋須輸入用戶名及密碼。
指紋登入的好處包括毋須再記住用戶名及密碼，而且登入速度更快，保安更強。渣打香港現時有超過50萬名網上銀行活躍用戶，過半數有下載手機銀行App「Breeze」，渣打香港個人金融業務主管尚明洋指，指紋登入方便易用，加上港人自Apple Pay推出後對指紋認證的接受度提升，故他預期下載App的人數比例，可升上活躍用戶的7至8成，該行明年會將指紋登入技術引入其證券買賣App。
各大銀行於生物認證領域競賽，中信銀行(國際)去年底率先推「指紋查帳」，只限蘋果手機，而星展銀行(香港)的信用卡專用App「DBS Omni」亦支援蘋果手機指紋登入。今年6月花旗銀行(香港)首推聲紋認證，滙豐銀行及中國銀行(香港)(02388
)預告，計劃推生物認證服務。
Perth Mint 2017 Year of the Rooster Silver Coin BU and Proof
1/2oz
Year: 2017
Grade: Proof
Denomination: $0.5
Mint Mark: P - Perth Mint
Metal Content: 0.5 troy oz
Minimum Gross Weight (g) 15.553
Purity: .9999
Manufacturer: Perth Mint
Thickness: 2.30 mm
Diameter: 36.6 mm
Mintage: 9000
1oz
Year: 2017
Grade: Proof
Denomination: $1
Mint Mark: P - Perth Mint
Metal Content: 1 troy oz
Minimum Gross Weight (g) 31.107
Purity: .9999
Manufacturer: Perth Mint
Thickness: 2.60 mm
Diameter: 45.6 mm
Mintage: 8500
Perth Mint 2017雞年半盎司(320蚊)和1盎司(520蚊)精製銀幣, 在SCS買, 有capsule、外盒和証書附送 !
剛剛發現雞年生肖銀幣, 普製和精製都改用9999純度銀 !
意大利中部發生6.6級強烈地震 羅馬有震感
on.cc東網專訊
【on.cc東網專訊】 意大利中部地區當地時間今早7時40分發生黎克特制6.6級地震，據歐洲地中海地震中心數據顯示，震央位於首都羅馬東北132公里，震源深度為1.5公里，屬淺層地震。地震震感強烈，首都羅馬及那不勒斯亦感受到震感，暫未有傷亡報告。較早前，美國地質調查局表示，震度為黎克特制7.1級，但其後作出修正。
有震央附近的民眾拍到地震一刻，民眾逃出建築物外的情況。原在當地教堂的民眾紛紛逃離現場，清楚看到建築物不斷搖晃，有民居牆壁出現裂縫，碎片散落一地。有網民上載事發時的影片，可見吊燈不斷在搖晃。
由於中部地區近日不斷發生地震，不少民眾都棲身戶外。小鎮烏西塔（Ussita）的鎮長連拿迪（Marco Rinaldi）形容是次地震為一場災難，他受訪時稱：「所有東西均倒塌，我看到大量濃煙，活像地獄來臨一樣，我一直只敢睡在車內。」
意大利中部早於8月24日亦發生強裂地震，造成超過300人死亡。
【on.cc東網專訊】 意大利中部地區當地時間今早7時40分發生黎克特制6.6級地震，據歐洲地中海地震中心數據顯示，震央位於首都羅馬東北132公里，震源深度為1.5公里，屬淺層地震。地震震感強烈，首都羅馬及那不勒斯亦感受到震感，暫未有傷亡報告。較早前，美國地質調查局表示，震度為黎克特制7.1級，但其後作出修正。
有震央附近的民眾拍到地震一刻，民眾逃出建築物外的情況。原在當地教堂的民眾紛紛逃離現場，清楚看到建築物不斷搖晃，有民居牆壁出現裂縫，碎片散落一地。有網民上載事發時的影片，可見吊燈不斷在搖晃。
由於中部地區近日不斷發生地震，不少民眾都棲身戶外。小鎮烏西塔（Ussita）的鎮長連拿迪（Marco Rinaldi）形容是次地震為一場災難，他受訪時稱：「所有東西均倒塌，我看到大量濃煙，活像地獄來臨一樣，我一直只敢睡在車內。」
意大利中部早於8月24日亦發生強裂地震，造成超過300人死亡。
黑球係咩？ 非風球但風力可等同3號波
on.cc東網專訊
【on.cc東網專訊】 掛風球就聽得多，掛黑球又有無聽過呢？黑球原來不是指黑雨，亦非風球，而是代表強烈季候風信號。在通訊科技還未發達時，天文台會把一個黑球掛在桅杆上，告訴市民強烈季候風信號現正生效。當強烈季候風信號生效時，風力可等同3號風球或以上的風力。
天文台最新一集的氣象冷知識中講解，當香港任何接近海平面地方的季候風，平均風速達到或超過每小時40公里的時候，天文台就會發出強烈季候風信號。在不同的時間，隨着天氣系統的配合，季候風可以從不同的方向抵達香港，所以天文台會在強烈季候風上面提醒大家哪一個方向較為當風，而影響香港的季候風主要有秋冬的東北季候風和夏天的西南季候風。季候風的英文是Monsoon，拉丁文有季節的意思。
天文台說強烈季候風時常會被忽略，其實它是指近海平面地方的平均風力達到強風程度或以上，可以說是等同3號風球或以上的風力，香港亦曾有被強烈季候風吹爛玻璃的情況，所以大家要小心做好防風措施，另外強烈季候風也會造成海上大浪或暗湧的情況，所以在海邊活動及從事海上活動的人士都要小心。
【on.cc東網專訊】 掛風球就聽得多，掛黑球又有無聽過呢？黑球原來不是指黑雨，亦非風球，而是代表強烈季候風信號。在通訊科技還未發達時，天文台會把一個黑球掛在桅杆上，告訴市民強烈季候風信號現正生效。當強烈季候風信號生效時，風力可等同3號風球或以上的風力。
天文台最新一集的氣象冷知識中講解，當香港任何接近海平面地方的季候風，平均風速達到或超過每小時40公里的時候，天文台就會發出強烈季候風信號。在不同的時間，隨着天氣系統的配合，季候風可以從不同的方向抵達香港，所以天文台會在強烈季候風上面提醒大家哪一個方向較為當風，而影響香港的季候風主要有秋冬的東北季候風和夏天的西南季候風。季候風的英文是Monsoon，拉丁文有季節的意思。
天文台說強烈季候風時常會被忽略，其實它是指近海平面地方的平均風力達到強風程度或以上，可以說是等同3號風球或以上的風力，香港亦曾有被強烈季候風吹爛玻璃的情況，所以大家要小心做好防風措施，另外強烈季候風也會造成海上大浪或暗湧的情況，所以在海邊活動及從事海上活動的人士都要小心。
China's Blowing Out TED-Spread Has Traders Bracing For A Cash Shortage
www.zerohedge.com
This past July, we lamented that as a result of the now implemented money market reform which sent Libor soaring, Wall Street had lost one of its most dependable, forward-looking crisis indicators: the TED-Spread (the difference between LIBOR and 3 month TSYs), something which Bloomberg also figured out last week.
Specifically, we said that "now the regulatory intervention is set to pressure what have traditionally been reliable metrics indicative of funding stress and systemic risk, among them swap spreads, the TED-Spread and the FRA-OIS spread, the market is about to lose the last metric indicative of underlying tensions. After all, with central bank intervention having broken all conventional signalling pathways, including equities, corporate bonds, Treasuries, and VIX, there will no longer be any reliable sources hinting at fundamental risk in the market, certainly for the short-term and perhaps over an indefinite amount of time."
However, one place where the TED spread - ironically - is still a valid indicator of liquidity concerns, is oddly enough China. And it is in China where traders in the local interest-rate swap market are bracing for a cash shortage as a result of the blowout in the premium for the 1-year swap rate over the 1-year sovereign bond yield to 52 basis points, the widest since July 2015.
As Bloomberg reminds us, this is China's version of the familiar TED spread, which in the US is (or rather was) a gauge of stress that compares funding costs for banks and the government.
“This is a signal in the market that swap traders are readying for tighter liquidity as the government tries to prevent a property bubble,” said Iris Pang, senior economist for Greater China at Natixis Asia Ltd. in Hong Kong. “Further tightness may be very limited because the PBOC doesn’t want to put financial stress on the market.
The good news: it is still well below the 140 basis points reached during the trust finance crackdown of early 2014. The bad news is that as reported last week, China has just launched a new crackdown, this time on on the infamous Wealth-Managemnt Products, shadow banking conduits which amount to just under $1.9 trillion in products, the immediate result of which has been the recent 10% surge in bitcoin. Which means that should absent another liquidity injections elsewhere, the drought is set to get far worse.
The recent, sharp move in the swap spread is the result of market concerns that the government is seeking to crackdown on the local housing bubble:
Making matters worse, China Securities Journal reported on its front page that finance companies need to prepare for "tight days" as monetary policy shifts to focus on deleveraging.
The "good" news from this upcoming liquidity shortage, is that China's government bond yields, already near all time lows, are set to drop even further, as bond investors - who assume the market's reaction to a Chinese growth slowdown is similar to that in the US - are preparing to benefit from the slower economic growth that may result. "Any decline in real estate activity is likely to dent growth in the world’s second-largest economy, providing a tailwind for government bonds", according to ING and DBS.
And while it is all connected, the liquidity shortage, the drop in yields, and the rising swap spreads, the cash squeeze also reflects the flight from a weakening yuan. While China's SAFE reported that 44.7 billion in yuan payments left the nation last month, up from August’s outflow of $27.7 billion, Goldman's calculation was nearly double that, or some $78 billion in September outflows.
As a result of the return of China's banking sector bogeyman, which as we reported last week just hit a staggering 200 trillion yuan...
... the Chinese currency continued to slide this past week, bringing its drop against the dollar to 4.2% YTD, the most among 11 Asian currencies tracked by Bloomberg.
How should one trade this reacceleration in Chinese capital outflows, Yuan devaluation and overall economic deterioration? One way, as Kyle Bass has done, is to short the Yuan outright, and in size. Another, as we did last September, and as Corriente's MarK Hart discussed in February, is simply to go long bitcoin - a trade that has returned over 200% in just over a year.
Of course, one doesn't have to trade it at all: sitting back and watching events unfold may be just as satisfactory.
This past July, we lamented that as a result of the now implemented money market reform which sent Libor soaring, Wall Street had lost one of its most dependable, forward-looking crisis indicators: the TED-Spread (the difference between LIBOR and 3 month TSYs), something which Bloomberg also figured out last week.
Specifically, we said that "now the regulatory intervention is set to pressure what have traditionally been reliable metrics indicative of funding stress and systemic risk, among them swap spreads, the TED-Spread and the FRA-OIS spread, the market is about to lose the last metric indicative of underlying tensions. After all, with central bank intervention having broken all conventional signalling pathways, including equities, corporate bonds, Treasuries, and VIX, there will no longer be any reliable sources hinting at fundamental risk in the market, certainly for the short-term and perhaps over an indefinite amount of time."
However, one place where the TED spread - ironically - is still a valid indicator of liquidity concerns, is oddly enough China. And it is in China where traders in the local interest-rate swap market are bracing for a cash shortage as a result of the blowout in the premium for the 1-year swap rate over the 1-year sovereign bond yield to 52 basis points, the widest since July 2015.
As Bloomberg reminds us, this is China's version of the familiar TED spread, which in the US is (or rather was) a gauge of stress that compares funding costs for banks and the government.
“This is a signal in the market that swap traders are readying for tighter liquidity as the government tries to prevent a property bubble,” said Iris Pang, senior economist for Greater China at Natixis Asia Ltd. in Hong Kong. “Further tightness may be very limited because the PBOC doesn’t want to put financial stress on the market.
The good news: it is still well below the 140 basis points reached during the trust finance crackdown of early 2014. The bad news is that as reported last week, China has just launched a new crackdown, this time on on the infamous Wealth-Managemnt Products, shadow banking conduits which amount to just under $1.9 trillion in products, the immediate result of which has been the recent 10% surge in bitcoin. Which means that should absent another liquidity injections elsewhere, the drought is set to get far worse.
The recent, sharp move in the swap spread is the result of market concerns that the government is seeking to crackdown on the local housing bubble:
The fixed cost to receive the seven-day repurchase rate for a year climbed to an 18-month high on concern the People’s Bank of China will tighten its purse strings after property prices surged 40 percent in Shanghai last month from a year earlier. The one-year swap rate reached 2.73 percent on Friday in Shanghai, matching the highest level since April 2015, while the seven-day repo rate reached a one-month high on Thursday. The one-year sovereign yield was at 2.19 percent, heading for a third annual decline.
Making matters worse, China Securities Journal reported on its front page that finance companies need to prepare for "tight days" as monetary policy shifts to focus on deleveraging.
The "good" news from this upcoming liquidity shortage, is that China's government bond yields, already near all time lows, are set to drop even further, as bond investors - who assume the market's reaction to a Chinese growth slowdown is similar to that in the US - are preparing to benefit from the slower economic growth that may result. "Any decline in real estate activity is likely to dent growth in the world’s second-largest economy, providing a tailwind for government bonds", according to ING and DBS.
And while it is all connected, the liquidity shortage, the drop in yields, and the rising swap spreads, the cash squeeze also reflects the flight from a weakening yuan. While China's SAFE reported that 44.7 billion in yuan payments left the nation last month, up from August’s outflow of $27.7 billion, Goldman's calculation was nearly double that, or some $78 billion in September outflows.
As a result of the return of China's banking sector bogeyman, which as we reported last week just hit a staggering 200 trillion yuan...
... the Chinese currency continued to slide this past week, bringing its drop against the dollar to 4.2% YTD, the most among 11 Asian currencies tracked by Bloomberg.
How should one trade this reacceleration in Chinese capital outflows, Yuan devaluation and overall economic deterioration? One way, as Kyle Bass has done, is to short the Yuan outright, and in size. Another, as we did last September, and as Corriente's MarK Hart discussed in February, is simply to go long bitcoin - a trade that has returned over 200% in just over a year.
Of course, one doesn't have to trade it at all: sitting back and watching events unfold may be just as satisfactory.
Here’s why bond yields are rising around the world
www.marketwatch.com
A global bond-market selloff sent yields around the world jumping in the past week, reflecting the potential for a pickup in inflation as well as growing suspicions that major central banks may be less aggressive about boosting monetary stimulus.
The 10-year Treasury yield TMUBMUSD10Y, +0.00% rose nearly 11 basis points this week to end Friday at 1.847% — the highest close since May 27. The yield is up more than 24 basis points so far in October, but remains around 43 basis points below where it started the year. Yields increase as debt prices fall.
The yield on the 10-year British government bond, or gilt TMBMKGB-10Y, +0.00% this week hit its highest level since the June Brexit vote. The yield on the German 10-year bond TMBMKDE-10Y, +0.00% known as the bund, which was negative as recently as early October, also jumped to its highest level since May.
Rising yields weighed on stocks, with the S&P 500 SPX, -0.31% logging a four-day losing streak. Some yield-sensitive sectors, such as real estate and telecoms, underperformed.
The selloff comes after a big rally, which took the U.S. yield to an all-time low in July. While the 10-year Treasury yield could test the 2% level, many analysts expect such a move would prompt renewed buying interest.
That said, what’s behind the recent weakness? Here’s a quick guide.
The Federal Reserve is headed toward its second rate increase after tightening last December. Meanwhile, a will-they-or-won’t-they debate centers on whether the European Central Bank will soon move toward tapering its bond purchases; the Bank of England appears reluctant to provide additional easing and its chief, Mark Carney, questions the efficacy of negative interest rates.
Indeed, a stronger-than-expected reading on third-quarter U.K. gross domestic product helped trigger Thursday’s selloff. The data further curbed prospects for additional stimulus by the Bank of England.
At the Bank of Japan, the desire is to steepen the yield curve, raising questions about its willingness to press the accelerator any further. Remarks by BOJ Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda that appeared to reiterate that desire also helped spark selling Thursday, analysts said.
Overall, those factors have combined to lift yields, particularly at the long end.
Typically, a predisposition of monetary tightening would be seen as a relative negative for longer-dated yields. But a primary goal of the central bank’s extraordinary stimulus efforts has been to drive down long-term yields and flatten the yield curve — the differential between short- and longer-dated maturities.
So a pullback in stimulus would be expected to steepen the curve and lift long-term rates, at least relative to shorter-dated bonds.
On top of that, there are growing expectations for fiscal stimulus, which would also be a negative for bonds as governments increase debt, though analysts caution that investors may be getting ahead of themselves.
Inflation eats away at bond returns. Investors see central bankers, who have been battling the threat of deflation, as eager to tolerate inflationary pressures.
Analysts at Danske Bank argued in an Oct. 27 note that a rise in commodity prices will lift global inflation in the near term, particularly as the drag from the past oil price decline fades. That will help reduce the “deflation scare,” while leading the market to price in greater inflation prospects.
They argue, however, that central banks — which have tried in vain to lift inflation expectations — would welcome that development. And that means that instead of scaling back stimulus significantly, they would be likely to maintain an accommodative stance.
That still means bond yields have further room to rise, since loose policy in the face of rising inflation would further lift inflation expectations. But the Danske analysts don’t expect a prolonged bear market for bonds, arguing that the commodity-inspired inflation lift should prove temporary.
A global bond-market selloff sent yields around the world jumping in the past week, reflecting the potential for a pickup in inflation as well as growing suspicions that major central banks may be less aggressive about boosting monetary stimulus.
The 10-year Treasury yield TMUBMUSD10Y, +0.00% rose nearly 11 basis points this week to end Friday at 1.847% — the highest close since May 27. The yield is up more than 24 basis points so far in October, but remains around 43 basis points below where it started the year. Yields increase as debt prices fall.
The yield on the 10-year British government bond, or gilt TMBMKGB-10Y, +0.00% this week hit its highest level since the June Brexit vote. The yield on the German 10-year bond TMBMKDE-10Y, +0.00% known as the bund, which was negative as recently as early October, also jumped to its highest level since May.
Rising yields weighed on stocks, with the S&P 500 SPX, -0.31% logging a four-day losing streak. Some yield-sensitive sectors, such as real estate and telecoms, underperformed.
The selloff comes after a big rally, which took the U.S. yield to an all-time low in July. While the 10-year Treasury yield could test the 2% level, many analysts expect such a move would prompt renewed buying interest.
That said, what’s behind the recent weakness? Here’s a quick guide.
Monetary stimulus pullback
After nearly eight years of extraordinary measures, including numerous rounds of quantitative easing and forays into negative interest-rate policy, there is growing consensus that major central banks are running out of room on the monetary stimulus front.The Federal Reserve is headed toward its second rate increase after tightening last December. Meanwhile, a will-they-or-won’t-they debate centers on whether the European Central Bank will soon move toward tapering its bond purchases; the Bank of England appears reluctant to provide additional easing and its chief, Mark Carney, questions the efficacy of negative interest rates.
Indeed, a stronger-than-expected reading on third-quarter U.K. gross domestic product helped trigger Thursday’s selloff. The data further curbed prospects for additional stimulus by the Bank of England.
At the Bank of Japan, the desire is to steepen the yield curve, raising questions about its willingness to press the accelerator any further. Remarks by BOJ Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda that appeared to reiterate that desire also helped spark selling Thursday, analysts said.
Overall, those factors have combined to lift yields, particularly at the long end.
Typically, a predisposition of monetary tightening would be seen as a relative negative for longer-dated yields. But a primary goal of the central bank’s extraordinary stimulus efforts has been to drive down long-term yields and flatten the yield curve — the differential between short- and longer-dated maturities.
So a pullback in stimulus would be expected to steepen the curve and lift long-term rates, at least relative to shorter-dated bonds.
On top of that, there are growing expectations for fiscal stimulus, which would also be a negative for bonds as governments increase debt, though analysts caution that investors may be getting ahead of themselves.
Inflation expectations
Despite a potential slowing of monetary stimulus, inflation expectations are on the rise. And that is also cited as a reason for rising yields.Inflation eats away at bond returns. Investors see central bankers, who have been battling the threat of deflation, as eager to tolerate inflationary pressures.
Analysts at Danske Bank argued in an Oct. 27 note that a rise in commodity prices will lift global inflation in the near term, particularly as the drag from the past oil price decline fades. That will help reduce the “deflation scare,” while leading the market to price in greater inflation prospects.
They argue, however, that central banks — which have tried in vain to lift inflation expectations — would welcome that development. And that means that instead of scaling back stimulus significantly, they would be likely to maintain an accommodative stance.
That still means bond yields have further room to rise, since loose policy in the face of rising inflation would further lift inflation expectations. But the Danske analysts don’t expect a prolonged bear market for bonds, arguing that the commodity-inspired inflation lift should prove temporary.
曜熊理財：美股美債料趨波動
on.cc東網專訊
【on.cc東網專訊】 曜熊理財策略理財顧問梁肇晉在東方產經「錢途」專欄表示，美國大選正進入直路，如無意外美國將會產生第一位女總統，預計大選後聯儲局可能加息，美元進一步走強，市場開始反映有關情況，美元兌各類貨幣均告上升，人民幣匯價貶至6.8左右，未來美元對各種貨幣均會保持強勁，持美元以外貨幣計價基金要計算匯率風險。
當前投資者面對的風險更加廣泛，包括政治、經濟、外匯及利率風險，故此，要求的回報要更高。如果市場遭遇上述的利率震盪，債券及股票基金將面臨最大的衝擊，會以漸進方式修正重估或急跌方式重估，要視乎加息速度，市場正擔心美債及美股出現轉向，高位回落。
部分債券商已下調美債在三個月內的前景評級，投資者均減低對美國債券持有量，最明顯為中國政府，看淡前景並採取減持態度，增加現金持有量，擔心美國利率上升和貨幣政策帶來的負面影響。
此外，資料顯示投機者正在加倉做空美股。美國商品期貨交易委員會最新的資料顯示，在看好美股長達多年後，大量投機者正進行沽空活動；過去數星期，投資情緒急下滑。
美股陷入停滯已經很久了，許多美資投行都在警告其中的風險。目前是否暴風雨前的寧靜，難以估計。聯儲局過度寬鬆的貨幣政策不僅創造了巨大的泡沫，還導致金融市場紊亂和美股泡沫頂部的延續。目前，金融投機活動正不斷上升，最終會引發市場波動亦是正常發展。
【on.cc東網專訊】 曜熊理財策略理財顧問梁肇晉在東方產經「錢途」專欄表示，美國大選正進入直路，如無意外美國將會產生第一位女總統，預計大選後聯儲局可能加息，美元進一步走強，市場開始反映有關情況，美元兌各類貨幣均告上升，人民幣匯價貶至6.8左右，未來美元對各種貨幣均會保持強勁，持美元以外貨幣計價基金要計算匯率風險。
當前投資者面對的風險更加廣泛，包括政治、經濟、外匯及利率風險，故此，要求的回報要更高。如果市場遭遇上述的利率震盪，債券及股票基金將面臨最大的衝擊，會以漸進方式修正重估或急跌方式重估，要視乎加息速度，市場正擔心美債及美股出現轉向，高位回落。
部分債券商已下調美債在三個月內的前景評級，投資者均減低對美國債券持有量，最明顯為中國政府，看淡前景並採取減持態度，增加現金持有量，擔心美國利率上升和貨幣政策帶來的負面影響。
此外，資料顯示投機者正在加倉做空美股。美國商品期貨交易委員會最新的資料顯示，在看好美股長達多年後，大量投機者正進行沽空活動；過去數星期，投資情緒急下滑。
美股陷入停滯已經很久了，許多美資投行都在警告其中的風險。目前是否暴風雨前的寧靜，難以估計。聯儲局過度寬鬆的貨幣政策不僅創造了巨大的泡沫，還導致金融市場紊亂和美股泡沫頂部的延續。目前，金融投機活動正不斷上升，最終會引發市場波動亦是正常發展。
The Coming Bond Market Crash - An Interview With Eric Hadik
www.zerohedge.com全文
Submitted by Erico Matias Tavares of Sinclair & Co.
The Coming Bond Market Crash - An Interview with Eric Hadik
.............................
EH: The first thing that jumps out at me is a perfect illustration of what I just described. The debt surge in 2007--2009 is like the accelerated or dynamic ‘3’ wave advance, in an overall wave structure. It is when debt surged to unprecedented extremes. However, it is NOT the ultimate peak, it is merely the penultimate peak. The debt levels subsequently consolidated in 2009--2014 before resuming their uptrend and heading to new highs.
Those charts corroborate what I have been discussing and why I believe 2017--2021 will represent the end and reversal of that multi-decade trend - as the debt bubble bursts and bond markets begin to crash. They also validate what I have been emphasizing in recent years - the parabolic phase of the 40-Year Cycle and how it is portending an intensified battle between hard money and fiat currency (which is rapidly deteriorating in value, due to this governmental debt orgy).
Every 40 years - since the founding of America - this battle has raged. It began with the Continentals (America’s first experiment with fiat currency) - that quickly plummeted from 1776--1781 - and then moved ahead to 1816--1821 (2nd Bank of US charter, quickly followed by Panic of 1819). From there, it was on to 1856--1861 (devaluing and then suspension of silver and gold currency), to 1896--1901 (Election based on battle over Gold Standard, followed by re-implementation of Gold Standard), to 1936--1941 (affirmation of gold confiscation and subsequent loosening, then tightening of credit - leading to 1937 crash), to 1976--1981 (Jamaica Agreement, delinking all major currencies from gold; led to skyrocketing inflation as the corresponding value of US Dollar plummeted).
2016--2021 is the next phase of this uncanny 40-Year Cycle and promises to resurrect this battle (intensifying in 2017) as the debt bubble bursts and the backing of fiat currencies evaporates.
ET: Focusing on those imminent long term cyclical changes, today there are over $10 trillion worth of bonds around the world trading with negative yields. Of course this is not sustainable. As such, the longer negative yields remain in place the higher the likelihood that a growing number of investors and financial institutions will lose money here, possibly badly, once there’s a recovery in yields, even a small one. Do you agree? And looking at yields specifically, are you anticipating any cyclical reversal to the massive decline we have seen over the last 30 years?
EH: Yes and yes. The negative yields are a perfect confirmation that this trend has reached an extreme: an uber-extreme.
This reaffirms that we are in the parabolic phase of a mania, very near the peak. However, just because a market has reached an extreme does NOT mean the trend will immediately reverse. It usually takes time. I have described long-term cycles - including the ubiquitous 40-Year Cycle AND a 70-Year Cycle (as well as a sequence of descending cycles) - that all project the culmination of a MAJOR bull market in Bonds, and bear market in rates and yields, for 2016/2017. I will then be looking for specific reversal signals - and corresponding evidence of a fundamental reversal - in the months and years that follow.
I am still convinced that one of my other primary outlooks - for an inflationary surge in commodities, metals and oil from 2017--2021 - could be the impetus behind that reversing trend as governments and policymakers are forced to bump up interest rates in reaction to those rising prices. Since the markets are built on perception, it would only take a convincing threat of that potential for the markets to unwind.
There is one specific year based on the greatest synergy of cycles in and out of the markets when I believe the accelerated phase will take hold… which is also when the debt bubble is most likely to burst. It represents the tipping point in almost all of my cycle work (not just in bonds).
ET: Let's review some of those catalysts. We recently discussed how a major food crisis may be looming in the not too distant future, where you outlined an 80 year cycle that has governed such crises with stunning regularity.
While our grain situation globally appears to remain healthy for now, this could change very quickly because of weather, water, diseases, human disruption or any combination thereof. And if indeed it does, what sort of magnitude move could we see and could this translate into higher inflation around the world?
EH: The Food Crisis Cycles are certainly one of the factors I am watching. But, I think that those cycles are likely to be fulfilled with a combination of natural and man-made stresses. That has often been the case, with a perfect example being the 1930’s - when worldwide drought and crop challenges like the Dust Bowl created shortages but governmental policies (in the USSR) led to one of the 5 worst famines in history in terms of lives lost - the Soviet Famine.
A different form of global Food Crisis emerged in the 1970’s, exacerbated by the manmade debacle of fiat currency chaos (Nixon Gold Shock of 1971, the collapse of Bretton Woods in 1973, oil weapon and then oil de-facto backing of US Dollar in 1973--1975 and Jamaica Accord of 1976). Multiple global droughts in the early-1970’s culminated with California’s worst drought (until recent years) in 1976--1977.
Combined with a collapsing Dollar, all that sent food prices skyrocketing with many commodities doubling and tripling in price… in 1--2 year periods.
2016--2021 is the next phase of that recurring 40-Year Cycle of Food Crises that I have documented back to the 1770’s and even earlier and the corresponding cycle of commodity inflation. Ironically, or not so much, this natural cycle dovetails perfectly with the economic and currency crises cycle I just described.
So, whether it is Dollar/currency-triggered (man-made) or crop stresses (natural; including droughts, floods and/or freezes, disease or super-pests) or both - which I believe is the most likely scenario - the resulting, escalating price movement should be the same. And, yes, that is likely to impact interest rates.
To compound my assessment, there are other long-term natural cycles that are likely to play a role - including sunspot/solar storm cycles and volcanic eruption cycles. And they, too, focus on that one year when I believe acceleration is most likely… even though preceding and ensuing events are cyclically probable as well. It is a Perfect Storm of multi-year, multi-decade and multi-century cycles converging.
ET: Food crises tend to affect emerging economies the most for various reasons. However, we could see something different this time. Western Europe is already buckling under a mass migration influx, and a severe food supply disruption could expand it several fold. This would further deepen societal and economic impacts all over the Old Continent, particularly at the core. How would you view a food shock impacting both developed and emerging markets this time around?
EH: You touch on the manmade aspect of these recurring food crises.
Complicating it is the evolving banking debacle throughout Europe, ranging from Spanish and Italian banks to those in Portugal and Germany. Some of those banking crises are so near the tipping point that they could actually represent one of the triggers for the debt bubble bursting - and also exacerbate a potential food crisis. Greece got a small taste of this potential in 2014/2015.
Historically, banking, economic and/or currency crises have repeatedly spurred massive strikes and social upheaval that could disrupt the distribution of food and other necessities, if the pattern is repeated. But that is just one possibility. I do NOT want to sound like I am yelling ‘the sky is falling’, because I am NOT, but I am also not willing to stick my head in the sand and ignore some ominous developments across the globe. Intensifying cyber-attacks could provide another contributing factor as they have already done on a smaller-scale and shorter-lived basis.
Paraphrasing the immortal words of Patrick Henry, I don’t want to listen to the song of the siren until she transforms us into beasts. I would rather recognize the threats looming on the horizon and to prepare for them.
ET: What about an energy shock? Do you see any cyclical factors that could spark a massive crude oil price rise and thus also cause a spike in inflation? The disinvestment in new production infrastructure resulting from the recent significant price correction could play a role, along with increased economic instability.
EH: Eventually, I do expect a new energy shock… but not just yet. Oil prices plummeted to downside extremes - in early-2016 - but were/are expected to undergo a 1--2 year bottoming process before a sustained uptrend is expected. One particular energy market is projecting a multi-month peak for late-Oct.--late-Nov. 2016 and that could usher in a final decline (a type of ‘5’ wave to the downside) - leading into early-2017.
Ultimately, I expect the oil markets to corroborate - and probably lead - Middle East Unification Cycles that I have discussed the past 10--15 years. Those cycles come into play in 2018--2021 and are expected to lead to some form of Arab or Middle East Union, as has been attempted a few times in the past century. I discuss that in related articles and reports.
ET: There is an important economic interplay here. When we talk about the 2008 financial crises we often forget that the large spike in crude oil prices beforehand certainly helped to flip over the world economy. A recession normally keeps yields in check, but there are some cyclical factors that suggest otherwise this time around. The graph below shows historical US corporate funding gap as % of GDP (smoothed) and high yield bond yield spreads (versus AAA credit rating) on a quarterly basis. We can clearly see that the former tends to lead the latter by some quarters, and as such we should expect higher spreads going forward at this juncture. Does your analysis support this?
EH: At this point in time, my analysis does not support OR contradict it. It is ambivalent. Until trigger signals are activated, it is hard to determine the expected width of the yield curve. Due to other analysis - in other arenas - however, I suspect that could be the case. I am just not comfortable giving any definite answer at this time.
ET: The modern financial system and its interplay with the wider economy are inherently deflationary. As long as there is some slack production, logistical and financial capacity anywhere in the world there will always be arbitrage that mitigates some of these price increases. This could help manage any transmission effects into the bond markets via higher inflation (except if these occur in the form of a shock of course). However, national trade balances and related currencies could be severely affected. What are your thoughts here?
EH: The relationship between currencies and bonds is certainly expected to play a key role. However, the question becomes more of a ‘chicken or the egg’ syndrome… which comes first and/or which leads the other. I have very distinct expectations for currencies - particularly the Euro and US Dollar - but I always analyze each market on its own before assessing any possible causal relationships.
Once I have reached specific conclusions on individual markets, I will certainly consider the potential correlations but it can be dangerous to become too tunnel-visioned on one specific correlation (since it often blinds us to recognizing a more imminent and ominous - but unexpected - correlation). The markets are notorious for throwing curveballs, which brings up an important point.
Out of 11 Trading Axioms (in my Tech Tip Reference Library), the one I quote most often - and the one which I emphasize most frequently to my readers - is the Axiom on Market Correlations (which I can make available to anyone who contacts me via my website). The crux of that Axiom is that inter-market correlations are fickle and ever-changing and should not be relied upon as the primary signal for trading. There is always a new and more urgent correlation right around the corner that ends up usurping or overtaking the first one and pushing related markets in unanticipated directions.
ET: You also talk about another recurrent crisis cycle which relates to the European Union and also the UK. And this one may already be upon us. How does this relate to a possible bond market crash in light of what we discussed above?
EH: For the last decade I have laid out the case for why I expected a developing and intensifying Euro Crisis (and EU crisis) from 2008, more so from 2011, even more so from 2014 and that reaches a tipping point in 2017 (note the 3-Year Cycle that has governed the Euro). My conclusion has been that Europe was destined to undergo multiple crises that would push the EU to the brink and force dramatic concessions from the nations that would ultimately be a part of the (new) EU moving forward.
I identified 2018--2021 for the time when I believed the EU would undergo a Major transition and a re-unification that yields a significantly different EU than what it was in 2008. Leading into 2016, and right up into June 2016, I explained how an uncanny 8-Year Cycle was projecting another meltdown in the British Pound and how that was likely signaling that Brexit would be approved. That was projected to be the next ‘straw’ flung on the back of the staggering EU.
That ‘8-Year Cycle of Pound Pummeling’ timed Sterling crises in 1968 (8 years after France and Germany surpassed the UK as the economic leaders of Europe), 1976 (Britain forced to go to IMF for Pound bailout), 1984, 1992 (George Soros sunk the Pound and forced the UK out of the EU Exchange Rate Mechanism), 2000 (inflationary meltdown in Pound led to fuel crisis and brief food rationing) and 2008 (35% plummet in 14 months). The Pound was projected to do the same in 2016, stretching into 2017.
Sure enough, Brexit was approved, the Pound plummeted and the Euro is under renewed selling pressure (even as other nations seriously contemplate their own EU-exit). At the same time, Europe is plagued with intensifying banking crises - in Spain, Italy, Portugal and Germany - with Deutsche Bank recently named (by the IMF) as the greatest risk to a global crisis.
Considering the enormous levels of debt, and the rapidly deteriorating value of that debt, one can envision a scenario where a crashing debt market enters the fray and the EU is thrown into chaos - at least for a time.
ET: If indeed we see that major bond price correction, if not outright crash as everyone runs for the exits at the same time, could central banks absorb it for instance by purchasing a huge amount of bonds? Any type of bonds, even equities at that point perhaps. They certainly seem omnipotent these days…
EH: The big problem is that they are already doing that. They print more money to buy debt and then repeat the process… over and over. The culmination of Draghi’s debt-buying binge keeps getting extended but there is a tipping point in the future (perhaps the not-so-distant future) reinforced by the deteriorating value of the Euro throughout this process. It is nothing more than a giant, debt-based Ponzi scheme. The last ones in are really going to regret it.
The deflationary environment is one thing masking this craziness… as are the consolidating equity markets. But, there are slowly developing signs of that transitioning as well. Since early-2015, I have explained why I was convinced that US equity markets would enter a 15--18 month topping process (with sharp 2--3 month drops and strong 1--3 month rallies) before entering a serious bear market in late-2016. Nov./Dec. 2016 has been my primary focus for that shift… and we are almost there!
So, what happens if/when the next shoe drops in global equities and then some price inflation returns shortly after?! It could be a form of ‘Stagflation’… and is not a pretty picture.
ET: So what should investors do? If the bond market goes down hard this will affect everything, starting right in the financial institution where they deposit their cash. How can you protect yourself in that event?
EH: First of all, I should stress that we are not at the acceleration phase. First, we have to complete the culmination phase (which is expected to reach fruition in Dec. 2016/Jan. 2017). I suspect that a final spike high could be a flight-to-quality if equity markets see a sharp sell-off in late-2016/early-2017.
Then, we have to go through the initial trigger phase. And then, eventually, we get to the acceleration phase. Here again, I am looking at one specific year when I believe that acceleration is most likely… but we have a little time. I do think that gold and hard assets play a key role in that protective approach but there are complicating factors, this time around.
In the interim, I think 2017 is going to see a battle between deflationary forces (as paper assets like stocks and bonds begin to rollover to the downside) and inflationary forces (as deteriorating currency values and natural resource challenges steadily push commodity prices higher) - the next stage of this multi-generational seismic shift.
ET: Final question. Do you have any plans to publish a book with your methodology one day, or will you just keep on focusing on www.insiidetrack.com and your INSIIDE Track and Weekly Re-Lay publications?
EH: I do have the skeletons of two books compiled - one on cycles and one on my trading approach - but time is the elusive factor. Ultimately, yes, that is my goal. But I cannot tell you when that goal will reach fruition. In the interim, I do provide a ~100-page trading manual (Eric Hadik’s Tech Tip Reference Library) as a bonus with several of my subscription packages. That explains the 11 Trading Axioms I cited earlier, as well as detailing the published indicators I use and key aspects of my cycle approach. (There are a couple proprietary indicators, whose calculations are not revealed.)
ET: Eric, as always many thanks for sharing your thoughts. Fascinating how you bring so many technical, historical and inter-market factors together.
EH: It’s my pleasure. Thank you.
Submitted by Erico Matias Tavares of Sinclair & Co.
The Coming Bond Market Crash - An Interview with Eric Hadik
.............................
EH: The first thing that jumps out at me is a perfect illustration of what I just described. The debt surge in 2007--2009 is like the accelerated or dynamic ‘3’ wave advance, in an overall wave structure. It is when debt surged to unprecedented extremes. However, it is NOT the ultimate peak, it is merely the penultimate peak. The debt levels subsequently consolidated in 2009--2014 before resuming their uptrend and heading to new highs.
Those charts corroborate what I have been discussing and why I believe 2017--2021 will represent the end and reversal of that multi-decade trend - as the debt bubble bursts and bond markets begin to crash. They also validate what I have been emphasizing in recent years - the parabolic phase of the 40-Year Cycle and how it is portending an intensified battle between hard money and fiat currency (which is rapidly deteriorating in value, due to this governmental debt orgy).
Every 40 years - since the founding of America - this battle has raged. It began with the Continentals (America’s first experiment with fiat currency) - that quickly plummeted from 1776--1781 - and then moved ahead to 1816--1821 (2nd Bank of US charter, quickly followed by Panic of 1819). From there, it was on to 1856--1861 (devaluing and then suspension of silver and gold currency), to 1896--1901 (Election based on battle over Gold Standard, followed by re-implementation of Gold Standard), to 1936--1941 (affirmation of gold confiscation and subsequent loosening, then tightening of credit - leading to 1937 crash), to 1976--1981 (Jamaica Agreement, delinking all major currencies from gold; led to skyrocketing inflation as the corresponding value of US Dollar plummeted).
2016--2021 is the next phase of this uncanny 40-Year Cycle and promises to resurrect this battle (intensifying in 2017) as the debt bubble bursts and the backing of fiat currencies evaporates.
ET: Focusing on those imminent long term cyclical changes, today there are over $10 trillion worth of bonds around the world trading with negative yields. Of course this is not sustainable. As such, the longer negative yields remain in place the higher the likelihood that a growing number of investors and financial institutions will lose money here, possibly badly, once there’s a recovery in yields, even a small one. Do you agree? And looking at yields specifically, are you anticipating any cyclical reversal to the massive decline we have seen over the last 30 years?
EH: Yes and yes. The negative yields are a perfect confirmation that this trend has reached an extreme: an uber-extreme.
This reaffirms that we are in the parabolic phase of a mania, very near the peak. However, just because a market has reached an extreme does NOT mean the trend will immediately reverse. It usually takes time. I have described long-term cycles - including the ubiquitous 40-Year Cycle AND a 70-Year Cycle (as well as a sequence of descending cycles) - that all project the culmination of a MAJOR bull market in Bonds, and bear market in rates and yields, for 2016/2017. I will then be looking for specific reversal signals - and corresponding evidence of a fundamental reversal - in the months and years that follow.
I am still convinced that one of my other primary outlooks - for an inflationary surge in commodities, metals and oil from 2017--2021 - could be the impetus behind that reversing trend as governments and policymakers are forced to bump up interest rates in reaction to those rising prices. Since the markets are built on perception, it would only take a convincing threat of that potential for the markets to unwind.
There is one specific year based on the greatest synergy of cycles in and out of the markets when I believe the accelerated phase will take hold… which is also when the debt bubble is most likely to burst. It represents the tipping point in almost all of my cycle work (not just in bonds).
ET: Let's review some of those catalysts. We recently discussed how a major food crisis may be looming in the not too distant future, where you outlined an 80 year cycle that has governed such crises with stunning regularity.
While our grain situation globally appears to remain healthy for now, this could change very quickly because of weather, water, diseases, human disruption or any combination thereof. And if indeed it does, what sort of magnitude move could we see and could this translate into higher inflation around the world?
EH: The Food Crisis Cycles are certainly one of the factors I am watching. But, I think that those cycles are likely to be fulfilled with a combination of natural and man-made stresses. That has often been the case, with a perfect example being the 1930’s - when worldwide drought and crop challenges like the Dust Bowl created shortages but governmental policies (in the USSR) led to one of the 5 worst famines in history in terms of lives lost - the Soviet Famine.
A different form of global Food Crisis emerged in the 1970’s, exacerbated by the manmade debacle of fiat currency chaos (Nixon Gold Shock of 1971, the collapse of Bretton Woods in 1973, oil weapon and then oil de-facto backing of US Dollar in 1973--1975 and Jamaica Accord of 1976). Multiple global droughts in the early-1970’s culminated with California’s worst drought (until recent years) in 1976--1977.
Combined with a collapsing Dollar, all that sent food prices skyrocketing with many commodities doubling and tripling in price… in 1--2 year periods.
2016--2021 is the next phase of that recurring 40-Year Cycle of Food Crises that I have documented back to the 1770’s and even earlier and the corresponding cycle of commodity inflation. Ironically, or not so much, this natural cycle dovetails perfectly with the economic and currency crises cycle I just described.
So, whether it is Dollar/currency-triggered (man-made) or crop stresses (natural; including droughts, floods and/or freezes, disease or super-pests) or both - which I believe is the most likely scenario - the resulting, escalating price movement should be the same. And, yes, that is likely to impact interest rates.
To compound my assessment, there are other long-term natural cycles that are likely to play a role - including sunspot/solar storm cycles and volcanic eruption cycles. And they, too, focus on that one year when I believe acceleration is most likely… even though preceding and ensuing events are cyclically probable as well. It is a Perfect Storm of multi-year, multi-decade and multi-century cycles converging.
ET: Food crises tend to affect emerging economies the most for various reasons. However, we could see something different this time. Western Europe is already buckling under a mass migration influx, and a severe food supply disruption could expand it several fold. This would further deepen societal and economic impacts all over the Old Continent, particularly at the core. How would you view a food shock impacting both developed and emerging markets this time around?
EH: You touch on the manmade aspect of these recurring food crises.
Complicating it is the evolving banking debacle throughout Europe, ranging from Spanish and Italian banks to those in Portugal and Germany. Some of those banking crises are so near the tipping point that they could actually represent one of the triggers for the debt bubble bursting - and also exacerbate a potential food crisis. Greece got a small taste of this potential in 2014/2015.
Historically, banking, economic and/or currency crises have repeatedly spurred massive strikes and social upheaval that could disrupt the distribution of food and other necessities, if the pattern is repeated. But that is just one possibility. I do NOT want to sound like I am yelling ‘the sky is falling’, because I am NOT, but I am also not willing to stick my head in the sand and ignore some ominous developments across the globe. Intensifying cyber-attacks could provide another contributing factor as they have already done on a smaller-scale and shorter-lived basis.
Paraphrasing the immortal words of Patrick Henry, I don’t want to listen to the song of the siren until she transforms us into beasts. I would rather recognize the threats looming on the horizon and to prepare for them.
ET: What about an energy shock? Do you see any cyclical factors that could spark a massive crude oil price rise and thus also cause a spike in inflation? The disinvestment in new production infrastructure resulting from the recent significant price correction could play a role, along with increased economic instability.
EH: Eventually, I do expect a new energy shock… but not just yet. Oil prices plummeted to downside extremes - in early-2016 - but were/are expected to undergo a 1--2 year bottoming process before a sustained uptrend is expected. One particular energy market is projecting a multi-month peak for late-Oct.--late-Nov. 2016 and that could usher in a final decline (a type of ‘5’ wave to the downside) - leading into early-2017.
Ultimately, I expect the oil markets to corroborate - and probably lead - Middle East Unification Cycles that I have discussed the past 10--15 years. Those cycles come into play in 2018--2021 and are expected to lead to some form of Arab or Middle East Union, as has been attempted a few times in the past century. I discuss that in related articles and reports.
ET: There is an important economic interplay here. When we talk about the 2008 financial crises we often forget that the large spike in crude oil prices beforehand certainly helped to flip over the world economy. A recession normally keeps yields in check, but there are some cyclical factors that suggest otherwise this time around. The graph below shows historical US corporate funding gap as % of GDP (smoothed) and high yield bond yield spreads (versus AAA credit rating) on a quarterly basis. We can clearly see that the former tends to lead the latter by some quarters, and as such we should expect higher spreads going forward at this juncture. Does your analysis support this?
EH: At this point in time, my analysis does not support OR contradict it. It is ambivalent. Until trigger signals are activated, it is hard to determine the expected width of the yield curve. Due to other analysis - in other arenas - however, I suspect that could be the case. I am just not comfortable giving any definite answer at this time.
ET: The modern financial system and its interplay with the wider economy are inherently deflationary. As long as there is some slack production, logistical and financial capacity anywhere in the world there will always be arbitrage that mitigates some of these price increases. This could help manage any transmission effects into the bond markets via higher inflation (except if these occur in the form of a shock of course). However, national trade balances and related currencies could be severely affected. What are your thoughts here?
EH: The relationship between currencies and bonds is certainly expected to play a key role. However, the question becomes more of a ‘chicken or the egg’ syndrome… which comes first and/or which leads the other. I have very distinct expectations for currencies - particularly the Euro and US Dollar - but I always analyze each market on its own before assessing any possible causal relationships.
Once I have reached specific conclusions on individual markets, I will certainly consider the potential correlations but it can be dangerous to become too tunnel-visioned on one specific correlation (since it often blinds us to recognizing a more imminent and ominous - but unexpected - correlation). The markets are notorious for throwing curveballs, which brings up an important point.
Out of 11 Trading Axioms (in my Tech Tip Reference Library), the one I quote most often - and the one which I emphasize most frequently to my readers - is the Axiom on Market Correlations (which I can make available to anyone who contacts me via my website). The crux of that Axiom is that inter-market correlations are fickle and ever-changing and should not be relied upon as the primary signal for trading. There is always a new and more urgent correlation right around the corner that ends up usurping or overtaking the first one and pushing related markets in unanticipated directions.
ET: You also talk about another recurrent crisis cycle which relates to the European Union and also the UK. And this one may already be upon us. How does this relate to a possible bond market crash in light of what we discussed above?
EH: For the last decade I have laid out the case for why I expected a developing and intensifying Euro Crisis (and EU crisis) from 2008, more so from 2011, even more so from 2014 and that reaches a tipping point in 2017 (note the 3-Year Cycle that has governed the Euro). My conclusion has been that Europe was destined to undergo multiple crises that would push the EU to the brink and force dramatic concessions from the nations that would ultimately be a part of the (new) EU moving forward.
I identified 2018--2021 for the time when I believed the EU would undergo a Major transition and a re-unification that yields a significantly different EU than what it was in 2008. Leading into 2016, and right up into June 2016, I explained how an uncanny 8-Year Cycle was projecting another meltdown in the British Pound and how that was likely signaling that Brexit would be approved. That was projected to be the next ‘straw’ flung on the back of the staggering EU.
That ‘8-Year Cycle of Pound Pummeling’ timed Sterling crises in 1968 (8 years after France and Germany surpassed the UK as the economic leaders of Europe), 1976 (Britain forced to go to IMF for Pound bailout), 1984, 1992 (George Soros sunk the Pound and forced the UK out of the EU Exchange Rate Mechanism), 2000 (inflationary meltdown in Pound led to fuel crisis and brief food rationing) and 2008 (35% plummet in 14 months). The Pound was projected to do the same in 2016, stretching into 2017.
Sure enough, Brexit was approved, the Pound plummeted and the Euro is under renewed selling pressure (even as other nations seriously contemplate their own EU-exit). At the same time, Europe is plagued with intensifying banking crises - in Spain, Italy, Portugal and Germany - with Deutsche Bank recently named (by the IMF) as the greatest risk to a global crisis.
Considering the enormous levels of debt, and the rapidly deteriorating value of that debt, one can envision a scenario where a crashing debt market enters the fray and the EU is thrown into chaos - at least for a time.
ET: If indeed we see that major bond price correction, if not outright crash as everyone runs for the exits at the same time, could central banks absorb it for instance by purchasing a huge amount of bonds? Any type of bonds, even equities at that point perhaps. They certainly seem omnipotent these days…
EH: The big problem is that they are already doing that. They print more money to buy debt and then repeat the process… over and over. The culmination of Draghi’s debt-buying binge keeps getting extended but there is a tipping point in the future (perhaps the not-so-distant future) reinforced by the deteriorating value of the Euro throughout this process. It is nothing more than a giant, debt-based Ponzi scheme. The last ones in are really going to regret it.
The deflationary environment is one thing masking this craziness… as are the consolidating equity markets. But, there are slowly developing signs of that transitioning as well. Since early-2015, I have explained why I was convinced that US equity markets would enter a 15--18 month topping process (with sharp 2--3 month drops and strong 1--3 month rallies) before entering a serious bear market in late-2016. Nov./Dec. 2016 has been my primary focus for that shift… and we are almost there!
So, what happens if/when the next shoe drops in global equities and then some price inflation returns shortly after?! It could be a form of ‘Stagflation’… and is not a pretty picture.
ET: So what should investors do? If the bond market goes down hard this will affect everything, starting right in the financial institution where they deposit their cash. How can you protect yourself in that event?
EH: First of all, I should stress that we are not at the acceleration phase. First, we have to complete the culmination phase (which is expected to reach fruition in Dec. 2016/Jan. 2017). I suspect that a final spike high could be a flight-to-quality if equity markets see a sharp sell-off in late-2016/early-2017.
Then, we have to go through the initial trigger phase. And then, eventually, we get to the acceleration phase. Here again, I am looking at one specific year when I believe that acceleration is most likely… but we have a little time. I do think that gold and hard assets play a key role in that protective approach but there are complicating factors, this time around.
In the interim, I think 2017 is going to see a battle between deflationary forces (as paper assets like stocks and bonds begin to rollover to the downside) and inflationary forces (as deteriorating currency values and natural resource challenges steadily push commodity prices higher) - the next stage of this multi-generational seismic shift.
ET: Final question. Do you have any plans to publish a book with your methodology one day, or will you just keep on focusing on www.insiidetrack.com and your INSIIDE Track and Weekly Re-Lay publications?
EH: I do have the skeletons of two books compiled - one on cycles and one on my trading approach - but time is the elusive factor. Ultimately, yes, that is my goal. But I cannot tell you when that goal will reach fruition. In the interim, I do provide a ~100-page trading manual (Eric Hadik’s Tech Tip Reference Library) as a bonus with several of my subscription packages. That explains the 11 Trading Axioms I cited earlier, as well as detailing the published indicators I use and key aspects of my cycle approach. (There are a couple proprietary indicators, whose calculations are not revealed.)
ET: Eric, as always many thanks for sharing your thoughts. Fascinating how you bring so many technical, historical and inter-market factors together.
EH: It’s my pleasure. Thank you.
2016年10月29日 星期六
Jim Rickards: Trump "Will Probably Win" and Gold "May Rise $100" Overnight
大家要坐定定睇戲啦 !
www.zerohedge.comby GoldCore
The
US election is just two weeks away on November 8th, and one of Hillary
Clinton's most vocal critics on the business side is finance commentator
and monetary expert Jim Rickards. Jim is in Sydney this week, armed
with his latest book, hot off the press entitled 'The Road to Ruin - The Global Elites' Secret Plan for the Next Financial Crisis' and gave an interesting television interview to 'The Business' on ABC Australia.
Rickards says that Trump "will probably win" and, if he, does stock markets will crash 10% and gold will rise $100 over night.
The
markets and polls believe Clinton will win and that is priced into
markets in the same way that a 'Bremain' was priced into markets prior
to the 'Brexit' vote.
“If Hillary wins nothing happens, if Trump wins you will have an earthquake.”
Should
Trump win, which looking at the polls is not an impossibility, gold
would likely surge $100 per ounce overnight, says Rickards.
What
Hillary did was appalling and there will be ‘another reckoning on
November 8th’ which the market has failed to price in, creating a good
scenario for gold. He says you don’t have to agree that Trump will win,
but agree that that in reality he could win.
For
Rickards, this is an excellent opportunity for investors, particularly
those who have an allocation to physical gold which he believes is set
to rise in the coming months and years.
Jim
is editor of Strategic Intelligence for Agora Financial as well as the
founder of the James Rickards Project: an inquiry into complex dynamics
of geopolitics and capital. He is also the author of New York Times
bestsellers The New Case for Gold, Currency Wars: The Making of the Next
Global Crisis and The Death of Money: The Coming Collapse of the
International Financial System.
Why the selling tsunami will spill into Monday
finance.yahoo.com
Jim
Cramer watched as billions of dollars were shifted out of healthcare
stocks, to technical and industrials, and then out of the market
altogether on the news that the FBI is probing new emails related to its investigation of Hillary Clinton .
While
Cramer doesn't know what will happen with Clinton, the rapid decline in
stocks signaled that investors need more certainty in the current
environment.
"I do know that this market seems to want some certainty or it wouldn't have plunged so hard midday," the " Mad Money " host said.
It
was one of the most vicious rotations Cramer has ever witnessed. Health
care stocks, which were already under pressure for election season, had
massive declines stemming from monster shortfalls. Cramer expects the
madness to continue next week.
除了叫車 Uber計劃10年後讓你叫「飛的」
on.cc東網專訊
【on.cc東網專訊】 外媒報道，近日，Uber發布了一份白皮書，這份白皮書可不是關於現有拼車的，Uber是要探討未來「拼機」(即俗稱的飛行的士)的優勢和現在的制約因素了。
在這份白皮書中，Uber講述了對未來拼機服務的規劃，當然，這次要拼的可不是波音747之類的大型客機，而是Uber設計的垂直起降小型飛機，其主要活動範圍集中在市內和城市之間。
這份白皮書由Uber產品總監霍登總結而來，他們的夢想是在Marina SF和聖何塞之間推出一條服務線路，其時間可從現在的2小時降至15分鐘。
霍登認為，利用小型垂直起降飛機可以大大降低飛行成本，這樣每個人才能坐得起（未來其費用甚至比買車都低）。他相信如果能大規模量產，飛行成本的降低並不是空話（現在垂直起降飛機製造成本是汽車的20倍）。
雖然打造一支垂直起降機隊成本很高，但藉助共享經濟和規模優勢，其成本未來肯定會大幅下降。當然，霍登承認拼機暫時還只是存在於紙上的概念，不過他堅信這是未來的趨勢。
在白皮書上，霍登還列出了現在拼機服務無法成型的製約因素。其中包括相關部門的審批、電池技術的缺陷、直升機能耗太高、載具性能和可靠性等。最重要的是，如何進行空中交通管控。
此外，成本、噪音、排放、基礎設施建設和駕駛員的訓練也都是大問題。
【on.cc東網專訊】 外媒報道，近日，Uber發布了一份白皮書，這份白皮書可不是關於現有拼車的，Uber是要探討未來「拼機」(即俗稱的飛行的士)的優勢和現在的制約因素了。
在這份白皮書中，Uber講述了對未來拼機服務的規劃，當然，這次要拼的可不是波音747之類的大型客機，而是Uber設計的垂直起降小型飛機，其主要活動範圍集中在市內和城市之間。
這份白皮書由Uber產品總監霍登總結而來，他們的夢想是在Marina SF和聖何塞之間推出一條服務線路，其時間可從現在的2小時降至15分鐘。
霍登認為，利用小型垂直起降飛機可以大大降低飛行成本，這樣每個人才能坐得起（未來其費用甚至比買車都低）。他相信如果能大規模量產，飛行成本的降低並不是空話（現在垂直起降飛機製造成本是汽車的20倍）。
雖然打造一支垂直起降機隊成本很高，但藉助共享經濟和規模優勢，其成本未來肯定會大幅下降。當然，霍登承認拼機暫時還只是存在於紙上的概念，不過他堅信這是未來的趨勢。
在白皮書上，霍登還列出了現在拼機服務無法成型的製約因素。其中包括相關部門的審批、電池技術的缺陷、直升機能耗太高、載具性能和可靠性等。最重要的是，如何進行空中交通管控。
此外，成本、噪音、排放、基礎設施建設和駕駛員的訓練也都是大問題。
黑客攻陷海事處電腦 鎖檔案勒索比特幣贖金
on.cc東網專訊
【on.cc東網專訊】 黑客網上綁架勒索贖款犯罪手法蔓延至政府部門，消息指，海事處電腦系統前日(27日)遭黑客利用勒索軟件綁架，數以百計檔案遭加密，要求交出折合港幣數萬元比特幣贖款，海事處已於前日向政府資訊科技總監辦公室及警方通報，案件即時交由警方網絡安全及科技罪案調查科跟進，暫未有人被捕，今次亦是首次有政府部門公開承認被黑客勒索贖款。
事發於本周三(26日)，消息指海事處海港巡邏組一名職員無意間在電腦下載一個可疑檔案，其中一個可能是打開了可疑電郵，或上網時登入不知名連結，結果遭勒索軟件攻擊，並將大量檔案加密，要求交出數個比特幣作贖款，據悉，現時每個比特幣的市價約為680美元(約5300港元)；黑客並有步驟地明確指示，只要按步驟繳付比特幣，便會交出像密碼的金匙，輸入後便可將檔案解密。
據知，海事處獲悉事件後大為緊張，隨即向資科辦及警方通報。警方發言人表示，已接獲相關報案，網絡安全及科技罪案調查科正跟進調查；今年1至8月，警方共接獲49宗涉及電腦勒索程式的勒索案件，當中5宗案件有損失，涉款共67,038港元。
海事處發言人表示，於本周三上午發現海港巡邏組辦公室內一部用以處理內部文書工作的電腦被惡意軟件攻擊，涉事電腦被植入勒索軟件，影響存取該電腦內的儲存文件，儲存文件並不涉及任何個人資料，而該處海港巡邏工作不受影響。
發言人續指，該處已通知政府資訊科技總監辦公室及警方，並緊急跟進，包括截斷該電腦與其他網絡的聯繫。該處人員正密切監察電腦系統，確保運作正常。處方亦已提醒各同事，在開啟任何電郵(及其附件或超連結)或網頁前應加強警覺，如認為其內容有可疑，切勿開啟該等電郵或網頁，並立即向該處報告。
政府資訊科技總監辦公室發言人表示，前日接獲海事處通報有電腦懷疑感染惡意程式，資科辦正協助該部門處理事件，另外，資科辦本周二亦接獲食物環境衞生署通知，有2部電腦懷疑感染惡意程式；此外，該辦公室亦不時收到個別部門有關電腦病毒或惡意程式，包括勒索軟件的零星感染個案，並已即時處理，至今未有政府服務因此受到影響。
【on.cc東網專訊】 黑客網上綁架勒索贖款犯罪手法蔓延至政府部門，消息指，海事處電腦系統前日(27日)遭黑客利用勒索軟件綁架，數以百計檔案遭加密，要求交出折合港幣數萬元比特幣贖款，海事處已於前日向政府資訊科技總監辦公室及警方通報，案件即時交由警方網絡安全及科技罪案調查科跟進，暫未有人被捕，今次亦是首次有政府部門公開承認被黑客勒索贖款。
事發於本周三(26日)，消息指海事處海港巡邏組一名職員無意間在電腦下載一個可疑檔案，其中一個可能是打開了可疑電郵，或上網時登入不知名連結，結果遭勒索軟件攻擊，並將大量檔案加密，要求交出數個比特幣作贖款，據悉，現時每個比特幣的市價約為680美元(約5300港元)；黑客並有步驟地明確指示，只要按步驟繳付比特幣，便會交出像密碼的金匙，輸入後便可將檔案解密。
據知，海事處獲悉事件後大為緊張，隨即向資科辦及警方通報。警方發言人表示，已接獲相關報案，網絡安全及科技罪案調查科正跟進調查；今年1至8月，警方共接獲49宗涉及電腦勒索程式的勒索案件，當中5宗案件有損失，涉款共67,038港元。
海事處發言人表示，於本周三上午發現海港巡邏組辦公室內一部用以處理內部文書工作的電腦被惡意軟件攻擊，涉事電腦被植入勒索軟件，影響存取該電腦內的儲存文件，儲存文件並不涉及任何個人資料，而該處海港巡邏工作不受影響。
發言人續指，該處已通知政府資訊科技總監辦公室及警方，並緊急跟進，包括截斷該電腦與其他網絡的聯繫。該處人員正密切監察電腦系統，確保運作正常。處方亦已提醒各同事，在開啟任何電郵(及其附件或超連結)或網頁前應加強警覺，如認為其內容有可疑，切勿開啟該等電郵或網頁，並立即向該處報告。
政府資訊科技總監辦公室發言人表示，前日接獲海事處通報有電腦懷疑感染惡意程式，資科辦正協助該部門處理事件，另外，資科辦本周二亦接獲食物環境衞生署通知，有2部電腦懷疑感染惡意程式；此外，該辦公室亦不時收到個別部門有關電腦病毒或惡意程式，包括勒索軟件的零星感染個案，並已即時處理，至今未有政府服務因此受到影響。
Russia's Most Potent Weapon: Rapidly "Hoarding Gold" As Global Currency War Is Upon Us
www.zerohedge.com
"He who holds the gold makes the rules?" notes SHTFPlan.com's Mac Slavo...
As The Free Thought Project's Jay Syrmopoulos warns, Russia is Hoarding Gold at an Alarming Rate — The Next World War Will Be Fought with Currencies
With all eyes on Russia’s unveiling their latest nuclear intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), which NATO has dubbed the “SATAN” missile, as tensions with the U.S. increase, Moscow’s most potent “weapon” may be something drastically different.
The rapidly evolving geopolitical “weapon” brandished by Russia is an ever increasing stockpile of gold, as well as Russia’s native currency, the ruble.
The symbol is the new designation of the Russian ruble, Russia’s national currency.
Similar to how the U.S. uses the dollar sign ($), the U.K. uses the pound sign (£), and the European Union uses the euro symbol (€), Russia is about to begin exporting its symbol internationally.
After the failed “reset” in U.S./Russian relations by the Obama administration, and the continued deterioration of the countries relationship, Washington began targeting entire sectors of the Russian economy, as well as specific individuals, meant to impose an economic burden so severe that it would force Moscow into compliance.
Instead of decimating Russia, what it precipitated was a Russian response of gradually weaning themselves off of the hegemony of the U.S. petrodollar, and working with China to create an alternative to the SWIFT payment system that isn’t solely controlled by Western interests (see Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, New Development Bank).
According to the Corbett Report:
Recently, financial guru Jim Rickards, author of the book “Currency Wars,” wrote that “Russia is poised for a major comeback in its economy. Russian bonds and stocks and the Russian currency, the ruble, will all benefit.” Rickards believes a “strong turnaround” is coming within Russia, and that this comeback will benefit the ruble.
While still suffering from the economic warfare being waged by the U.S., Russia has realized that as long they are subservient to the petrodollar, there remains a clear and present danger of the Russian economy being devastated by the whims of Washington.
The Bank of Russia, that nation’s central bank, is extremely clear about its mission, and monetary policy declaring on its website:
In layman’s terms, that means that monetary policy, similar to nuclear weapons and the military, are “an integral part of the state policy” in Russia. While many analysts have noted the increased build-up in Russia’s military arsenal, seemingly few have highlighted the massive build-up of Russian gold reserves over the past decade.
Below is a chart showing Russian gold reserves between 1994 and last year, 2015:
Since 2006, there has been a year-on-year increase that reveals a
significant upward trend. The chart clearly reveals that Russia’s state
policy of increasing state monetary assets, in the form of gold.
Additionally, the Russian government has been converting state rubles
into gold assets. From 2006 to 2015, Russia’s state holdings of gold
tripled.
Within just the past year Russia has substantially increased its gold holdings
According to the Business Insider:
Currently, Russian gold reserves rank seventh in the world. It’s clear that there is a concerted effort by Russian authorities to build up the country’s gold reserves as part of a national strategy to negate the effects of economic warfare waged by the United States.
Rickards, in his 2011 book “Currency Wars,” theorized that Russia and China could combine their gold reserves to form a global gold-backed currency to compete against the U.S. dollar. Currently, Russian reserves stand at roughly 1,500 tonnes, with Chinese reserves totaling over 1,800 tonnes (according to China — it’s likely more), which would amount to a combined total of roughly 3,300 tonnes of gold.
The U.S. is about to lose overarching control of policymaking within the International Monetary Fund (IMF), thus the U.S. lockup on global gold is about to vanish, according to Business Insider.
Imagine for a moment the distinctly real possibility that Russian-Chinese alliance could exercise indirect (or even direct) control over the IMF’s gold reserve of over 2,800 tonnes. Russian, Chinese and IMF gold combined would equal roughly 6,100 tonnes, and would allow for direct competition with the U.S. gold reserves, estimated at 8,100 tonnes.
Russia and China have realized that the petrodollar is wielded by Washington as it’s weapon of choice when opposing a well-armed state, and clearly see the writing on the wall – thus working together to create a new global financial paradigm.
The reality is that the United States is $20 trillion dollars in debt, and eventually the time will come when the U.S. economy begins to implode — and all the fiat currency people are stuck holding will essentially be worth nothing more than the paper it’s printed on. Hard assets, such as gold and silver, should be bought and taken custody of while there is still an opportunity to do so, as a means of hedging against the potentially disastrous results of the U.S. using the petrodollar as a “weapon.”
Ultimately, the United States, Russia and China are all controlled by centralized power-hungry tyrants attempting to command powerful global bureaucracies like the IMF, the World Bank, SWIFT, New Development Bank and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.
It’s not Russian nuclear weapons that people should fear, as the policy of mutually assured destruction essentially voids any benefit of a state launching a first-strike nuclear attack. The true threat to America is our economic house of cards, built upon the back of a neoliberal trade policy that puts the “rights” of corporations over that of people.
"He who holds the gold makes the rules?" notes SHTFPlan.com's Mac Slavo...
Fresh attempts at containing Russia and continuing the empire have been met with countermoves. Russia appears to be building strength in every way. Putin and his country have no intention of being under the American thumb, and are developing rapid resistance as the U.S. petrodollar loses its grip and China, Russia and the East shift into new currencies and shifting world order.
What lies ahead? It will be a strong hand for the countries that have the most significant backing in gold and hard assets; and China and Russia have positioned themselves very well. Prepare for a changing economic landscape, and one in which self-reliance might be all we have.
As The Free Thought Project's Jay Syrmopoulos warns, Russia is Hoarding Gold at an Alarming Rate — The Next World War Will Be Fought with Currencies
With all eyes on Russia’s unveiling their latest nuclear intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), which NATO has dubbed the “SATAN” missile, as tensions with the U.S. increase, Moscow’s most potent “weapon” may be something drastically different.
The rapidly evolving geopolitical “weapon” brandished by Russia is an ever increasing stockpile of gold, as well as Russia’s native currency, the ruble.
Take a look at the symbol below,
as it could soon come to change the entire hierarchy of the
international order – potentially ushering in a complete international
paradigm shift – and much sooner than you might think.
Similar to how the U.S. uses the dollar sign ($), the U.K. uses the pound sign (£), and the European Union uses the euro symbol (€), Russia is about to begin exporting its symbol internationally.
After the failed “reset” in U.S./Russian relations by the Obama administration, and the continued deterioration of the countries relationship, Washington began targeting entire sectors of the Russian economy, as well as specific individuals, meant to impose an economic burden so severe that it would force Moscow into compliance.
Instead of decimating Russia, what it precipitated was a Russian response of gradually weaning themselves off of the hegemony of the U.S. petrodollar, and working with China to create an alternative to the SWIFT payment system that isn’t solely controlled by Western interests (see Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, New Development Bank).
According to the Corbett Report:
New reports indicate that China is ready to launch its SWIFT alternative, and for those who have their ear to the ground this is the most significant move yet in the unfolding process of de-dollarization that is seeing the BRICS-led “resistance bloc” breaking away from the financial stranglehold of the US-led “Washington Consensus.”
For those who don’t know, SWIFT stands for the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication and is shorthand for the SWIFTNet Network that is used by over 10,500 financial institutions in 215 countries and territories to transmit financial transaction data around the world. SWIFT does not do any of the clearing or processing for these transactions itself, but instead sends the payment orders that are then settled by correspondent banks of the member institutions. Still, given the system’s near universality in the financial system, it means that virtually every international transaction between banking institutions goes through the SWIFT network.
This is why de-listing from the SWIFT network remains one of the primary financial weapons wielded by the US and its allies in their increasingly important financial warfare campaigns.
Recently, financial guru Jim Rickards, author of the book “Currency Wars,” wrote that “Russia is poised for a major comeback in its economy. Russian bonds and stocks and the Russian currency, the ruble, will all benefit.” Rickards believes a “strong turnaround” is coming within Russia, and that this comeback will benefit the ruble.
While still suffering from the economic warfare being waged by the U.S., Russia has realized that as long they are subservient to the petrodollar, there remains a clear and present danger of the Russian economy being devastated by the whims of Washington.
The Bank of Russia, that nation’s central bank, is extremely clear about its mission, and monetary policy declaring on its website:
Monetary policy constitutes an integral part of the state policy and is aimed at enhancing well-being of Russian citizens. The Bank of Russia implements monetary policy in the framework of inflation-targeting regime, and sees price stability, albeit sustainably low inflation, as its priority. Given structural peculiarities of the Russian economy, the target is to reduce inflation to 4% by 2017 and maintain it within that range in the medium run.
In layman’s terms, that means that monetary policy, similar to nuclear weapons and the military, are “an integral part of the state policy” in Russia. While many analysts have noted the increased build-up in Russia’s military arsenal, seemingly few have highlighted the massive build-up of Russian gold reserves over the past decade.
Below is a chart showing Russian gold reserves between 1994 and last year, 2015:
Within just the past year Russia has substantially increased its gold holdings
According to the Business Insider:
In July of this year, the central bank of Russia added 200,000 ounces of gold to its reserves. The one-month uptick in Russian gold reserves — 200,000 ounces — is approximately equal to the entire annual output of Barrick Gold’s Turquoise Ridge gold mine in Nevada.
At that same rate — 200,000 ounces per month — in a mere five months, Russia would add to state gold reserves the equivalent of the entire annual output of Barrick’s massive Goldstrike mine in Nevada.
Currently, Russian gold reserves rank seventh in the world. It’s clear that there is a concerted effort by Russian authorities to build up the country’s gold reserves as part of a national strategy to negate the effects of economic warfare waged by the United States.
Rickards, in his 2011 book “Currency Wars,” theorized that Russia and China could combine their gold reserves to form a global gold-backed currency to compete against the U.S. dollar. Currently, Russian reserves stand at roughly 1,500 tonnes, with Chinese reserves totaling over 1,800 tonnes (according to China — it’s likely more), which would amount to a combined total of roughly 3,300 tonnes of gold.
The U.S. is about to lose overarching control of policymaking within the International Monetary Fund (IMF), thus the U.S. lockup on global gold is about to vanish, according to Business Insider.
Imagine for a moment the distinctly real possibility that Russian-Chinese alliance could exercise indirect (or even direct) control over the IMF’s gold reserve of over 2,800 tonnes. Russian, Chinese and IMF gold combined would equal roughly 6,100 tonnes, and would allow for direct competition with the U.S. gold reserves, estimated at 8,100 tonnes.
Russia and China have realized that the petrodollar is wielded by Washington as it’s weapon of choice when opposing a well-armed state, and clearly see the writing on the wall – thus working together to create a new global financial paradigm.
The reality is that the United States is $20 trillion dollars in debt, and eventually the time will come when the U.S. economy begins to implode — and all the fiat currency people are stuck holding will essentially be worth nothing more than the paper it’s printed on. Hard assets, such as gold and silver, should be bought and taken custody of while there is still an opportunity to do so, as a means of hedging against the potentially disastrous results of the U.S. using the petrodollar as a “weapon.”
Ultimately, the United States, Russia and China are all controlled by centralized power-hungry tyrants attempting to command powerful global bureaucracies like the IMF, the World Bank, SWIFT, New Development Bank and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.
It’s not Russian nuclear weapons that people should fear, as the policy of mutually assured destruction essentially voids any benefit of a state launching a first-strike nuclear attack. The true threat to America is our economic house of cards, built upon the back of a neoliberal trade policy that puts the “rights” of corporations over that of people.
美股全日反覆 道指收跌8點
on.cc東網專訊
【on.cc東網專訊】 美國最新經濟數據勝預期，刺激美股早段向上，惟其後聯邦調查局(FBI)稱重新開展對希拉妮的電郵風波調查，引發市場憂慮，美股3大指數收市向下。
道指早段做好，盤中最高升88點，惟中段曾倒跌逾75點，尾市跌勢緩和，收報18,161點，跌8點或0.05%；標指收報2,126點，跌6點或0.31%；納指收報5,190點，跌25點或0.5%。
總結全星期，道指累升0.1%；標指累跌0.7%；納指累跌1.3%。
10年期美國國債收益率收漲0.4個基點，至1.847%，全周累升達11個基點。
道指30隻成分股之中，有14隻上升及16隻下跌。
企業季績續受關注，兩大油股榮辱互見。美國最大油企埃克森美孚上季純利和收入齊跌，又預警可能需為近50億桶油儲作撥備，股價全日挫2.46%；第二大油企雪佛龍上季盈利跌35%但勝預期，股價收漲3.9%，為表現最好的道指成分股。
Google母公司Alphabet上季純利和收入均好過預期，又宣布將回購約70億美元股份，股價收升0.27%。亞馬遜上季營運開支勁增，加上今個假期旺季收入預測低於預期，股價跌逾5.1%。
外國傳媒報道，FBI重新開展對美國民主黨總統候選人希拉妮的電郵風波調查，因為當局發現了更多訊息。共和黨總統候選人特朗普隨即回應「抽水」，強調美國絕不容許希拉妮將她的刑事行為帶到總統辦公室；又指要向FBI和司法部致敬。
數據方面，美國第3季國內生產總值(GDP)以年率計按季增長2.9%，高於市場預期的2.6%，並較前一季的1.4%加速，期內庫存和出口增長，抵銷個人開支升幅僅2.1%並遜預期的影響。此外，當地上季工資增長0.6%，連升3季，符預期。
美國10月份密歇根大學消費情緒指數終值向下修訂為87.2點，低於預期的88.2點及前一個月的92.1點，並創2014年以來新低，反映消費者在總統大選前表現謹慎。
【on.cc東網專訊】 美國最新經濟數據勝預期，刺激美股早段向上，惟其後聯邦調查局(FBI)稱重新開展對希拉妮的電郵風波調查，引發市場憂慮，美股3大指數收市向下。
道指早段做好，盤中最高升88點，惟中段曾倒跌逾75點，尾市跌勢緩和，收報18,161點，跌8點或0.05%；標指收報2,126點，跌6點或0.31%；納指收報5,190點，跌25點或0.5%。
總結全星期，道指累升0.1%；標指累跌0.7%；納指累跌1.3%。
10年期美國國債收益率收漲0.4個基點，至1.847%，全周累升達11個基點。
道指30隻成分股之中，有14隻上升及16隻下跌。
企業季績續受關注，兩大油股榮辱互見。美國最大油企埃克森美孚上季純利和收入齊跌，又預警可能需為近50億桶油儲作撥備，股價全日挫2.46%；第二大油企雪佛龍上季盈利跌35%但勝預期，股價收漲3.9%，為表現最好的道指成分股。
Google母公司Alphabet上季純利和收入均好過預期，又宣布將回購約70億美元股份，股價收升0.27%。亞馬遜上季營運開支勁增，加上今個假期旺季收入預測低於預期，股價跌逾5.1%。
外國傳媒報道，FBI重新開展對美國民主黨總統候選人希拉妮的電郵風波調查，因為當局發現了更多訊息。共和黨總統候選人特朗普隨即回應「抽水」，強調美國絕不容許希拉妮將她的刑事行為帶到總統辦公室；又指要向FBI和司法部致敬。
數據方面，美國第3季國內生產總值(GDP)以年率計按季增長2.9%，高於市場預期的2.6%，並較前一季的1.4%加速，期內庫存和出口增長，抵銷個人開支升幅僅2.1%並遜預期的影響。此外，當地上季工資增長0.6%，連升3季，符預期。
美國10月份密歇根大學消費情緒指數終值向下修訂為87.2點，低於預期的88.2點及前一個月的92.1點，並創2014年以來新低，反映消費者在總統大選前表現謹慎。
After Correctly Predicting GDP Would Beat Estimates, Former Soros Associate Now Says Gold Headed Above $2,000
kingworldnews.com
After yesterday correcting predicting that the GDP number would beat estimates and telling KWN readers to buy the initial dip in gold because it would mark a low for the correction, here is what a former associate of George Soros told King World News today.
Victor Sperandeo manages over $3 billion, has been in the business 45 years, and has worked with famous individuals such as Leon Cooperman and George Soros. Below is what Sperandeo had to say.
Victor Sperandeo: “The GDP number came in at 2.9 percent, and after an initial dip, gold is acting terrific. If you look at gold and silver, they should be trading down and yet they are trading higher. This is very strong action in the gold market technically and this setup is very bullish. Gold is now set up to trade above $1,400 and then above $2,000.
And if you look at interest rates, they are rising all over the world and the stock market has topped. And in Europe, people are switching from the Swedish krona to the Norwegian krone. This action in the currency markets is a further indication that the EU is in trouble. Norway is not part of the EU, even though they have trade pacts with them. The reality, Eric, is that people are fleeing the EU into countries not affiliated with the EU. This is another point where gold wins because if the EU collapses, then the world goes into a depression.”
After yesterday correcting predicting that the GDP number would beat estimates and telling KWN readers to buy the initial dip in gold because it would mark a low for the correction, here is what a former associate of George Soros told King World News today.
Victor Sperandeo manages over $3 billion, has been in the business 45 years, and has worked with famous individuals such as Leon Cooperman and George Soros. Below is what Sperandeo had to say.
Victor Sperandeo: “The GDP number came in at 2.9 percent, and after an initial dip, gold is acting terrific. If you look at gold and silver, they should be trading down and yet they are trading higher. This is very strong action in the gold market technically and this setup is very bullish. Gold is now set up to trade above $1,400 and then above $2,000.
And if you look at interest rates, they are rising all over the world and the stock market has topped. And in Europe, people are switching from the Swedish krona to the Norwegian krone. This action in the currency markets is a further indication that the EU is in trouble. Norway is not part of the EU, even though they have trade pacts with them. The reality, Eric, is that people are fleeing the EU into countries not affiliated with the EU. This is another point where gold wins because if the EU collapses, then the world goes into a depression.”
封殺走資：銀聯證實明起停赴港碌卡買壽險
on.cc東網專訊
【on.cc東網專訊】 對於有消息指中國銀聯將於10月29日凌晨0時起全面暫停透過銀聯在香港或境外地區購買人壽保險，至於醫療及意外保險則未受影響。中國銀聯發表聲明證實此事。
以下是中國銀聯發表的聲明：
「我們並未停止境外保險類商戶的銀聯卡支付服務。按照監管政策要求，境內發行的銀聯卡僅可進行個人旅游、消費類支付，不得用於資本和金融項目交易，因此，銀聯卡僅可用於與意外、疾病等旅游消費相關的經常項目保險，不能購買具有資本項目投資性質的人壽險。
需要提醒的是，一直以來，保險屬於境外限制類商戶類別，持境內銀行卡購買相關保險產品，均有單筆5000美元限額，既可滿足境內持卡人購買小額保險的合理需求，又實現對涉及資本項目的投資性保險的限制。」
君陽證券行政總裁鄧聲興指出，內地人來港投保為香港保費上升的主要動力。內地人被禁以銀聯卡在香港繳付保費，肯定會對內地人來港投保帶來即時打擊。
今年2月銀聯將內地人海外每宗交易簽帳上限收收緊為5,000美元，曾使友邦保險(01299)股價一度急插近一成。鄧聲興指出，若全面禁止以銀聯卡在香港購買壽險的消息屬實，個別保險股周一有可能出現近一成的急跌。友邦保險、宏利金融(00945)及英國保誠(02378)所受的負面影響，肯定會較中國人壽(02628)等內險股嚴重。
惟對於長線持有友邦等國際保險股的投資者來說，鄧聲興認為毋須作出過敏反應。主要原因，是內地人來港購買保險的需求仍然強勁，保險公司在新政策下長遠仍會找到其他應對措施。從友邦2月急跌過後的走勢觀察，保險股股價在短時內急跌，更可能是投資者低吸的機會。
【on.cc東網專訊】 對於有消息指中國銀聯將於10月29日凌晨0時起全面暫停透過銀聯在香港或境外地區購買人壽保險，至於醫療及意外保險則未受影響。中國銀聯發表聲明證實此事。
以下是中國銀聯發表的聲明：
「我們並未停止境外保險類商戶的銀聯卡支付服務。按照監管政策要求，境內發行的銀聯卡僅可進行個人旅游、消費類支付，不得用於資本和金融項目交易，因此，銀聯卡僅可用於與意外、疾病等旅游消費相關的經常項目保險，不能購買具有資本項目投資性質的人壽險。
需要提醒的是，一直以來，保險屬於境外限制類商戶類別，持境內銀行卡購買相關保險產品，均有單筆5000美元限額，既可滿足境內持卡人購買小額保險的合理需求，又實現對涉及資本項目的投資性保險的限制。」
君陽證券行政總裁鄧聲興指出，內地人來港投保為香港保費上升的主要動力。內地人被禁以銀聯卡在香港繳付保費，肯定會對內地人來港投保帶來即時打擊。
今年2月銀聯將內地人海外每宗交易簽帳上限收收緊為5,000美元，曾使友邦保險(01299
)股價一度急插近一成。鄧聲興指出，若全面禁止以銀聯卡在香港購買壽險的消息屬實，個別保險股周一有可能出現近一成的急跌。友邦保險、宏利金融(00945)及英國保誠(02378)所受的負面影響，肯定會較中國人壽(02628)等內險股嚴重。惟對於長線持有友邦等國際保險股的投資者來說，鄧聲興認為毋須作出過敏反應。主要原因，是內地人來港購買保險的需求仍然強勁，保險公司在新政策下長遠仍會找到其他應對措施。從友邦2月急跌過後的走勢觀察，保險股股價在短時內急跌，更可能是投資者低吸的機會。
2016年10月28日 星期五
維穩完畢？「國家隊」減持4內銀股
on.cc東網專訊
【on.cc東網專訊】 據內地傳媒報道，證金公司減持銀行股。招商銀行、浦發銀行、民生銀行、工商銀行紛紛披露第3季業績，數據顯示，4者均遭證金公司減持。截至第3季底，證金公司持有招商銀行股8.45億A股，相比半年業績時減持809萬股；持有浦發銀行5.77億A股，相比半年業績時減持2,240萬股；持有民生銀行15.33億A股，相比半年業績時減持6,254萬股；持有工商銀行46.98億A股，相比半年業績時減持3.62億股。
證金公司成立於2011年，是經中國國務院同意，在中國證監會批准下設立的全國性證券類金融機構。
【on.cc東網專訊】 據內地傳媒報道，證金公司減持銀行股。招商銀行、浦發銀行、民生銀行、工商銀行紛紛披露第3季業績，數據顯示，4者均遭證金公司減持。截至第3季底，證金公司持有招商銀行股8.45億A股，相比半年業績時減持809萬股；持有浦發銀行5.77億A股，相比半年業績時減持2,240萬股；持有民生銀行15.33億A股，相比半年業績時減持6,254萬股；持有工商銀行46.98億A股，相比半年業績時減持3.62億股。
證金公司成立於2011年，是經中國國務院同意，在中國證監會批准下設立的全國性證券類金融機構。
美上季GDP增2.9% 勝預期
on.cc東網專訊
【on.cc東網專訊】 美國第3季國內生產總值(GDP)以年率計按季增長2.9%，高於市場預期的2.6%，並較前一季的1.4%加速，期內庫存和出口增長，抵銷個人開支升幅僅2.1%並遜預期的影響。此外，當地上季工資增長0.6%，連升3季，符預期。
美國上季經濟數據好於預期，增力聯儲局在未來議息會議加息的可能性。
【on.cc東網專訊】 美國第3季國內生產總值(GDP)以年率計按季增長2.9%，高於市場預期的2.6%，並較前一季的1.4%加速，期內庫存和出口增長，抵銷個人開支升幅僅2.1%並遜預期的影響。此外，當地上季工資增長0.6%，連升3季，符預期。
美國上季經濟數據好於預期，增力聯儲局在未來議息會議加息的可能性。
房委會擬向公屋富戶開刀 持私人物業即叮走
on.cc東網專訊
【on.cc東網專訊】 公屋長期供不應求，房委會資助房屋小組委員會下周一(31日)開會商討對策。據了解，房委會擬檢討多項房屋政策以騰出更多單位。消息稱，房委會擬向富戶開刀，建議考慮針對在香港擁有私人住宅物業的公屋租戶，不論其申報的其他入息或資產水平如何，均須遷離公屋。消息指出，家庭入息超逾公屋入息限額3倍的租戶，須即時申報資產，毋須等待下一次申報，如資產水平超出限額，須遷離公屋。
現時家庭入息超逾公屋入息限額3倍，以及資產同時超過公屋入息限額84倍的租戶，須於12個月內遷出公屋；消息指出，若公屋租戶入息或資產其中一項超出現時更高水平，如入息限額5倍或資產超過入息限額100倍，便會被踢走，但若只超出現時入息及資產水平，則可繼續繳交有關租金，毋須被踢走。
截至6月底，全港約有2.6萬個富戶，佔整體的4%，2011/12至2015/16年間，房委會平均每年從富戶收回約230個單位。
【on.cc東網專訊】 公屋長期供不應求，房委會資助房屋小組委員會下周一(31日)開會商討對策。據了解，房委會擬檢討多項房屋政策以騰出更多單位。消息稱，房委會擬向富戶開刀，建議考慮針對在香港擁有私人住宅物業的公屋租戶，不論其申報的其他入息或資產水平如何，均須遷離公屋。消息指出，家庭入息超逾公屋入息限額3倍的租戶，須即時申報資產，毋須等待下一次申報，如資產水平超出限額，須遷離公屋。
現時家庭入息超逾公屋入息限額3倍，以及資產同時超過公屋入息限額84倍的租戶，須於12個月內遷出公屋；消息指出，若公屋租戶入息或資產其中一項超出現時更高水平，如入息限額5倍或資產超過入息限額100倍，便會被踢走，但若只超出現時入息及資產水平，則可繼續繳交有關租金，毋須被踢走。
截至6月底，全港約有2.6萬個富戶，佔整體的4%，2011/12至2015/16年間，房委會平均每年從富戶收回約230個單位。
Pound Tumbles After UK Government Wins Brexit Suit In Northern Ireland Court
www.zerohedge.com
Moments ago sterling did what it has been doing so well these past few months, it tumbled by as much as 50 pips after the UK government won a Brexit suit in a Northern Ireland court: a Northern Irish judge rejected a pair of challenges to the Brexit process, removing at least one obstacle to Prime Minister Theresa May’s plan to begin severing ties with the European Union by the end of March.
The Northern Irish High Court ruled that lawmakers don’t need to hold a vote to start the two-year countdown to Brexit. The judge also rejected a challenge based on Good Friday Peace Agreement.
But the court also said that it would defer to English courts on the wider issue of whether Prime Minister Theresa May and her ministers have the authority to invoke Article 50 of the EU Lisbon Treaty, the mechanism by which a nation can leave the bloc, without the explicit backing of the British parliament.
Reuters adds that Northern Ireland rights activist McCord will appeal the high court ruling to the UK Supreme Court, however according to ING analyst Petr Krpata, the decision reduced the probability that article 50 won’t get triggered, Bloomberg reported.
Moments ago sterling did what it has been doing so well these past few months, it tumbled by as much as 50 pips after the UK government won a Brexit suit in a Northern Ireland court: a Northern Irish judge rejected a pair of challenges to the Brexit process, removing at least one obstacle to Prime Minister Theresa May’s plan to begin severing ties with the European Union by the end of March.
The Northern Irish High Court ruled that lawmakers don’t need to hold a vote to start the two-year countdown to Brexit. The judge also rejected a challenge based on Good Friday Peace Agreement.
But the court also said that it would defer to English courts on the wider issue of whether Prime Minister Theresa May and her ministers have the authority to invoke Article 50 of the EU Lisbon Treaty, the mechanism by which a nation can leave the bloc, without the explicit backing of the British parliament.
Reuters adds that Northern Ireland rights activist McCord will appeal the high court ruling to the UK Supreme Court, however according to ING analyst Petr Krpata, the decision reduced the probability that article 50 won’t get triggered, Bloomberg reported.
In the immediate aftermath,
GBP/USD dropped 0.32% to day low of 1.2125 while EUR climbs to 0.89941
against the pound in sharp moves. GBP/USD next support at 1.2118;
EUR/GBP resistance at 0.9027. Cable now trading -0.21% at 1.2140;
EUR/GBP +0.33% at 0.89874.
收市10大要知：美今晚830公布2大爆炸數據
on.cc東網專訊
【on.cc東網專訊】 港股收市後，市場焦點落在香港時間今晚8時30分，美國公布的第3季經濟增長數據，以及10時的消費者信心指數，道指期貨現跌35點。以下為「收市10大要知」新聞：
1、美今晚830公布GDP數據
香港時間今晚8點30分，美國將公布第3季GDP，同時公布美國核心通脹指標，這兩個數據對聯儲局會否在今年加息極重要，前者反映美國經濟狀況，後者是聯儲局在通脹方面的重要參考依據，較CPI更重要。
經濟學家們預計，第3季美國經濟增速或達到2.5%甚至更高，遠高於第2季1.4%。自2015年第3季以來，美國GDP增長從未超過2%。
另一重磅數據為美國第3季度核心PCE物價指數。2季度核心PCE物價指數年化季率增幅終值錄得1.8%。
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2、港股失守2萬3 或下試22500
港股在期指結算後跌穿2萬3大關，恒生指數最多跌285點，低見22,847點；尾市有買盤趁低吸納，大市跌幅收窄。恒指收市報22,954點，跌177點或0.77%；國企指數收報9,515點，跌93點或0.97%。主板全日成交增至683億港元，港股通餘額99.13億人民幣；滬股通餘額125.84億人民幣。兩者皆有資金流入。
京華山一研究部主管彭偉新表示，市場缺乏正面消息，港股今日跟隨外圍及內地股市下跌，而恒指較早前升穿20日線(23,440點)水平為假突破，隨着23,000點關口失守，料未來有頗大機會下試22,500點水平。
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3、滬指收跌8點 滬股通有資金流入
滬深股市低開後雖然一度倒升，但全日表現反覆偏軟，滬綜指錄3連跌，今日險守3,100關，低位曾跌至3,101點，收市跌8點或0.26%，報3,104點；深成指跌77點或0.72%，報10,711點；滬深300指跌5點或0.17%，報3,340點；創業板指跌17點或0.78%，報2,165點。
滬市成交2,125億元人民幣，深市成交2,985億元人民幣。滬股通現淨餘額逾125億元人民幣，意味有資金流入。
板塊方面，摩托車股跌2.35%；鋼鐵股跌1.74%；草甘膦概念股跌1.73%；鐵路基建概念股跌1.62%；供水供氣股跌1.43%。次新股逆市漲4.44%；紡織機械股升2.12%；金融股升0.28%。
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4、歐股開市全線向下 銀行股「抗跌」
承接亞太股市跌勢，加上部分企業業績不佳，以及投資者預期美國即將公布的第3季GDP不俗，或再增加聯儲局加息機會，歐股3大指數開市全線向下，英國富時100指數報6,947點，跌38點或0.56%；德國DAX指數報10,639點，跌77點或0.73%；法國CAC指數報4,524點，跌9點或0.2%。
個股方面，歐洲大行業績各異。瑞銀第3季盈利暴跌60%，主要就MBS調查撥備大幅增加，股價開市升2.4%。同行法國巴黎銀行季度業績好過市場預期，該行第3季淨利潤18.9億歐元，按年增長3.3%，預期16.9億歐元；收入106億歐元，按年增長2.4%，好過預期102億歐元。股價開市升0.56%。另外，蘇格蘭皇家銀行公布第3季虧損4.69億英鎊，仍勝市場預期，帶動股價開市勁飆5.4%。
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5、證監會：正調查瑞銀在港上市保薦事宜
瑞銀於第3季度報告中披露，證監會正就瑞銀在香港參與的部分上市保薦活動進行調查，並準備對瑞銀及其員工在保薦事宜的活動展開行動，事件有可能使瑞銀面臨罰款及索償等後果；並可能導致瑞銀須暫停在港提供企業財務顧問服務。
證監會發言人回應查詢時確認，正就瑞銀在香港上市保薦事宜進行調查，現階段並無進一步資料可公布。
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6、人民幣速遞：離岸價險守6.8關
人民幣離岸匯價今早險些失守每美元兌6.8元重要關口，上午約8時半低見6.7987，只差13點子便觸及6.8。亞洲開市後匯價有支持，人民幣回升至6.78水平，報6.7896，本周累跌0.27%。在岸則報6.7791。
中國銀行(香港)(02388)電匯牌價，首度穿每百人民幣兌88港元，現報銀行買入價88.03，賣出價87.18。
早間，人民幣兌每美元中間價跌穿6.78關，報6.7858，較上日開市價6.7736，跌122點子。昨日在岸人民幣夜盤收市價報6.781。市場估計6.8為「鐵底」價。
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7、The Jordan連家電月租最平1.4萬
俊文地產集團首個全幢商住出租物業佐敦廣東道501號The Jordan今日委託中原獨家代理租賃，即日起接受預租，料11月入伙。
中原新九龍高級營業董事蔡日基表示，已接獲10餘組客查詢，年齡介乎25至30歲，包括外籍人士。俊文地產集團聯席董事黃國標稱，目前暫未有其他項目可以推出。
The Jordan共提供32個單位，實用面積174至312方呎，均為開放式間隔，連全屋家電出租，月租由1.4萬至2.5萬港元。
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8、運房局：一手潛在供應量9.3萬伙
運房局公布，截至今年9月底的私人住宅一手市場供應統計數字，第3季的私宅落成量為3,300伙，按季少41%，按年增加17%；施工量為2,900伙，與第2季持平，按年則跌17%。
至於9個月累計施工量為19,100伙，不但按年大增67%，且破2012年全年私工量18,600伙的5年高位紀錄，並為2000年以來最高。累計私宅落成量為10,700伙，按年增35%，但距離去年全年落成量11,300伙，只差600伙。
未來3至4年間可提供的私宅單位數目約為93,000伙，持平第2季的紀錄高位，按年增長8%；當中包括已落成樓宇但未售出的單位共6,000伙，建築中單位74,000伙，已預售單位共12,000伙，已批出土地並可隨時動工項目涉及25,000伙。
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9、啟德地截標：至少錄17份標書
九龍啟德第1K區3號住宅地皮已截標，現場所見，至少錄得17份標書。
保利置業(00119)及新鴻基地產(00016)分別確認已入標，而新世界發展(00017)確認夥拍招商局置業入標投啟德住宅地。另外，已入標的財團包括會德豐地產、恒基地產(00012)、長實地產(01113)、中國海外(00688)、嘉華國際(00173)、永泰地產(00369)、木薯資源(00841)、世茂房地產(00813)、英皇國際(00163)、華懋、萬科置業(海外)及3間不知名財團。
上述項目為區內逾2年來首推的住宅地皮，佔地約12.1萬方呎，可建總樓面為約65.46萬方呎，最高地積比率約5.4倍，當中可建私人住宅總樓面不得超過約63萬方呎，而商業用總樓面則不得少於約2.42萬方呎。
業內預計，該地皮樓面呎價介乎5,500至7,200港元，估值約36億至47.1億元，最新估值上限較9月高逾1成。
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10、樓價UPDATES：尚悅3年半僅升值27萬
樓市交投平穩，成交向來較少屋苑，趕及月尾成功破蛋，奧運站凱帆軒錄本月首宗二手成交，屋苑1座低層D室，實用面積464方呎，2房間隔，以705萬元易手，實用呎價15,194元。
另外，元朗尚悅9座中層B室，實用面積440方呎，2房間隔，以463萬元易手，實用呎價約10,523元，原業主2013年4月購入單位，現轉售帳面僅獲利27.4萬元，賺幅僅超過6%。
【on.cc東網專訊】 港股收市後，市場焦點落在香港時間今晚8時30分，美國公布的第3季經濟增長數據，以及10時的消費者信心指數，道指期貨現跌35點。以下為「收市10大要知」新聞：
1、美今晚830公布GDP數據
香港時間今晚8點30分，美國將公布第3季GDP，同時公布美國核心通脹指標，這兩個數據對聯儲局會否在今年加息極重要，前者反映美國經濟狀況，後者是聯儲局在通脹方面的重要參考依據，較CPI更重要。
經濟學家們預計，第3季美國經濟增速或達到2.5%甚至更高，遠高於第2季1.4%。自2015年第3季以來，美國GDP增長從未超過2%。
另一重磅數據為美國第3季度核心PCE物價指數。2季度核心PCE物價指數年化季率增幅終值錄得1.8%。
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2、港股失守2萬3 或下試22500
港股在期指結算後跌穿2萬3大關，恒生指數最多跌285點，低見22,847點；尾市有買盤趁低吸納，大市跌幅收窄。恒指收市報22,954點，跌177點或0.77%；國企指數收報9,515點，跌93點或0.97%。主板全日成交增至683億港元，港股通餘額99.13億人民幣；滬股通餘額125.84億人民幣。兩者皆有資金流入。
京華山一研究部主管彭偉新表示，市場缺乏正面消息，港股今日跟隨外圍及內地股市下跌，而恒指較早前升穿20日線(23,440點)水平為假突破，隨着23,000點關口失守，料未來有頗大機會下試22,500點水平。
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3、滬指收跌8點 滬股通有資金流入
滬深股市低開後雖然一度倒升，但全日表現反覆偏軟，滬綜指錄3連跌，今日險守3,100關，低位曾跌至3,101點，收市跌8點或0.26%，報3,104點；深成指跌77點或0.72%，報10,711點；滬深300指跌5點或0.17%，報3,340點；創業板指跌17點或0.78%，報2,165點。
滬市成交2,125億元人民幣，深市成交2,985億元人民幣。滬股通現淨餘額逾125億元人民幣，意味有資金流入。
板塊方面，摩托車股跌2.35%；鋼鐵股跌1.74%；草甘膦概念股跌1.73%；鐵路基建概念股跌1.62%；供水供氣股跌1.43%。次新股逆市漲4.44%；紡織機械股升2.12%；金融股升0.28%。
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4、歐股開市全線向下 銀行股「抗跌」
承接亞太股市跌勢，加上部分企業業績不佳，以及投資者預期美國即將公布的第3季GDP不俗，或再增加聯儲局加息機會，歐股3大指數開市全線向下，英國富時100指數報6,947點，跌38點或0.56%；德國DAX指數報10,639點，跌77點或0.73%；法國CAC指數報4,524點，跌9點或0.2%。
個股方面，歐洲大行業績各異。瑞銀第3季盈利暴跌60%，主要就MBS調查撥備大幅增加，股價開市升2.4%。同行法國巴黎銀行季度業績好過市場預期，該行第3季淨利潤18.9億歐元，按年增長3.3%，預期16.9億歐元；收入106億歐元，按年增長2.4%，好過預期102億歐元。股價開市升0.56%。另外，蘇格蘭皇家銀行公布第3季虧損4.69億英鎊，仍勝市場預期，帶動股價開市勁飆5.4%。
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5、證監會：正調查瑞銀在港上市保薦事宜
瑞銀於第3季度報告中披露，證監會正就瑞銀在香港參與的部分上市保薦活動進行調查，並準備對瑞銀及其員工在保薦事宜的活動展開行動，事件有可能使瑞銀面臨罰款及索償等後果；並可能導致瑞銀須暫停在港提供企業財務顧問服務。
證監會發言人回應查詢時確認，正就瑞銀在香港上市保薦事宜進行調查，現階段並無進一步資料可公布。
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6、人民幣速遞：離岸價險守6.8關
人民幣離岸匯價今早險些失守每美元兌6.8元重要關口，上午約8時半低見6.7987，只差13點子便觸及6.8。亞洲開市後匯價有支持，人民幣回升至6.78水平，報6.7896，本周累跌0.27%。在岸則報6.7791。
中國銀行(香港)(02388
)電匯牌價，首度穿每百人民幣兌88港元，現報銀行買入價88.03，賣出價87.18。早間，人民幣兌每美元中間價跌穿6.78關，報6.7858，較上日開市價6.7736，跌122點子。昨日在岸人民幣夜盤收市價報6.781。市場估計6.8為「鐵底」價。
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7、The Jordan連家電月租最平1.4萬
俊文地產集團首個全幢商住出租物業佐敦廣東道501號The Jordan今日委託中原獨家代理租賃，即日起接受預租，料11月入伙。
中原新九龍高級營業董事蔡日基表示，已接獲10餘組客查詢，年齡介乎25至30歲，包括外籍人士。俊文地產集團聯席董事黃國標稱，目前暫未有其他項目可以推出。
The Jordan共提供32個單位，實用面積174至312方呎，均為開放式間隔，連全屋家電出租，月租由1.4萬至2.5萬港元。
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8、運房局：一手潛在供應量9.3萬伙
運房局公布，截至今年9月底的私人住宅一手市場供應統計數字，第3季的私宅落成量為3,300伙，按季少41%，按年增加17%；施工量為2,900伙，與第2季持平，按年則跌17%。
至於9個月累計施工量為19,100伙，不但按年大增67%，且破2012年全年私工量18,600伙的5年高位紀錄，並為2000年以來最高。累計私宅落成量為10,700伙，按年增35%，但距離去年全年落成量11,300伙，只差600伙。
未來3至4年間可提供的私宅單位數目約為93,000伙，持平第2季的紀錄高位，按年增長8%；當中包括已落成樓宇但未售出的單位共6,000伙，建築中單位74,000伙，已預售單位共12,000伙，已批出土地並可隨時動工項目涉及25,000伙。
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9、啟德地截標：至少錄17份標書
九龍啟德第1K區3號住宅地皮已截標，現場所見，至少錄得17份標書。
保利置業(00119
)及新鴻基地產(00016)分別確認已入標，而新世界發展(00017)確認夥拍招商局置業入標投啟德住宅地。另外，已入標的財團包括會德豐地產、恒基地產(00012)、長實地產(01113)、中國海外(00688)、嘉華國際(00173)、永泰地產(00369)、木薯資源(00841)、世茂房地產(00813)、英皇國際(00163)、華懋、萬科置業(海外)及3間不知名財團。上述項目為區內逾2年來首推的住宅地皮，佔地約12.1萬方呎，可建總樓面為約65.46萬方呎，最高地積比率約5.4倍，當中可建私人住宅總樓面不得超過約63萬方呎，而商業用總樓面則不得少於約2.42萬方呎。
業內預計，該地皮樓面呎價介乎5,500至7,200港元，估值約36億至47.1億元，最新估值上限較9月高逾1成。
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10、樓價UPDATES：尚悅3年半僅升值27萬
樓市交投平穩，成交向來較少屋苑，趕及月尾成功破蛋，奧運站凱帆軒錄本月首宗二手成交，屋苑1座低層D室，實用面積464方呎，2房間隔，以705萬元易手，實用呎價15,194元。
另外，元朗尚悅9座中層B室，實用面積440方呎，2房間隔，以463萬元易手，實用呎價約10,523元，原業主2013年4月購入單位，現轉售帳面僅獲利27.4萬元，賺幅僅超過6%。
歐盟學生憂脫歐前景 申請英大學人數跌一成
on.cc東網專訊
【on.cc東網專訊】 英國公投決定離開歐盟後，歐盟學生申請入讀英國著名大學的人數減少近一成。分析指，這個數字反映英國決定離開歐盟的破壞性影響，令歐盟學生憂慮英國前景，失去留學英國的興趣。
英國大學及院校招生事務處（UCAS）表示，歐盟學生申請下學年入讀英國著名大學的人數下降了9%。當局公布的數字亦指出，申請入讀2017年9月牛津和劍橋兩家大學所有學科的歐盟申請者人數也全面下跌，報讀醫科和牙科及獸醫的人同樣減少。數字指，在10月15日前首個申請入讀英國大學的期限過後，歐盟學生申請英國大學總申請人數為6240人，較去年同期減少了620人。
英國大學聯盟（Universities UK）發言人表示，目前的數字未能反映真實情況，要到明年1月待九成大學申請完成後，才可見具體情況。發言人說，由於前景不明朗，很多歐盟學生均擔心未來是否能夠繼續獲得英國政府的財政資助。發言人提醒歐盟學生申請入讀英國大學前，要充分了解自己經濟情況以及有否學費資助等。
不過，英國政府最近表示，仍會對入讀英國大學的歐盟學生，提供2017至2018年度的大學貸款。
【on.cc東網專訊】 英國公投決定離開歐盟後，歐盟學生申請入讀英國著名大學的人數減少近一成。分析指，這個數字反映英國決定離開歐盟的破壞性影響，令歐盟學生憂慮英國前景，失去留學英國的興趣。
英國大學及院校招生事務處（UCAS）表示，歐盟學生申請下學年入讀英國著名大學的人數下降了9%。當局公布的數字亦指出，申請入讀2017年9月牛津和劍橋兩家大學所有學科的歐盟申請者人數也全面下跌，報讀醫科和牙科及獸醫的人同樣減少。數字指，在10月15日前首個申請入讀英國大學的期限過後，歐盟學生申請英國大學總申請人數為6240人，較去年同期減少了620人。
英國大學聯盟（Universities UK）發言人表示，目前的數字未能反映真實情況，要到明年1月待九成大學申請完成後，才可見具體情況。發言人說，由於前景不明朗，很多歐盟學生均擔心未來是否能夠繼續獲得英國政府的財政資助。發言人提醒歐盟學生申請入讀英國大學前，要充分了解自己經濟情況以及有否學費資助等。
不過，英國政府最近表示，仍會對入讀英國大學的歐盟學生，提供2017至2018年度的大學貸款。
深圳地鐵新線開通連接皇崗 客讚慳金錢時間
on.cc東網專訊
【on.cc東網專訊】 深圳地鐵7號及9號線今早11時許正式開通，其中7號線更連接深圳皇崗口岸，吸引不少民眾一早前往試搭。有乘客表示新地鐵方便出入，以往個多小時的車程，如今只需約半小時。從事網購生意而需經常到香港取貨的商家更直言，新地鐵可節省不少金錢及時間。
來自新疆的迪女士一家向東網記者表示，她們特意前來試搭新地鐵，欣賞沿途景觀。迪女士坦言，她們住在南山區，以前到皇崗要個多小時車程，如今地鐵開通後，只需約半小時就可從南山到皇崗，非常快捷方便。
從事網購生意的肖小姐則大讚新地鐵令她可節省不少金錢和時間，因她以往要乘的士到皇崗口岸，如今可改乘地鐵，從店舖出發搭兩個站就可抵達。
不過亦有乘客抱怨7號線的車速較慢，比起機場的11號線慢得多。多名乘客更直指當局開通過急，地鐵站內多處仍在裝修中，配套設施亦大多未建好，站內店舖堆滿建築材料，又認為地鐵站的設計有瑕疵，出閘口與皇崗口岸有一段距離。
【on.cc東網專訊】 深圳地鐵7號及9號線今早11時許正式開通，其中7號線更連接深圳皇崗口岸，吸引不少民眾一早前往試搭。有乘客表示新地鐵方便出入，以往個多小時的車程，如今只需約半小時。從事網購生意而需經常到香港取貨的商家更直言，新地鐵可節省不少金錢及時間。
來自新疆的迪女士一家向東網記者表示，她們特意前來試搭新地鐵，欣賞沿途景觀。迪女士坦言，她們住在南山區，以前到皇崗要個多小時車程，如今地鐵開通後，只需約半小時就可從南山到皇崗，非常快捷方便。
從事網購生意的肖小姐則大讚新地鐵令她可節省不少金錢和時間，因她以往要乘的士到皇崗口岸，如今可改乘地鐵，從店舖出發搭兩個站就可抵達。
不過亦有乘客抱怨7號線的車速較慢，比起機場的11號線慢得多。多名乘客更直指當局開通過急，地鐵站內多處仍在裝修中，配套設施亦大多未建好，站內店舖堆滿建築材料，又認為地鐵站的設計有瑕疵，出閘口與皇崗口岸有一段距離。
Let Crude Crash: US Oil Producers Are Hedging At Levels Not Seen Since 2007
如果大多數人睇淡油價, 而大手玩衍生工具, 本人反而認為油價有機會大反彈 !
www.zerohedge.comAs warned here one month ago after the farcical OPEC meeting in Algiers, the cartel's latest jawboning ploy to keep prices artificially higher - if only for one more month - is fast falling apart. Just a few hours ago, Bloomberg reporter Daniel Kruger penned the following assessment of the situation:
Production-Cut Talk Is as Good as It Gets for Oil. Some OPEC members are talking about cutting production again, and so prices are rising. Saudi Arabia and other producers both in and out of the cartel have done a good job fostering the storyline that there are terms under which parties can agree to pump less crude. Continuing signs of concord among producer nations have boosted oil prices to an average of $50 a barrel this month in New York. Yet several obstacles make it difficult for countries to commit to signing on to a deal. One obstacle is that sacrifices are needed for the agreements to succeed. Another is that those sacrifices aren’t shared equally.
Having successfully raised $18 billion in the bond market, Saudi Arabia is better positioned to withstand the loss of some revenue. Iraq, OPEC’s second-biggest producer, was the latest to plead for an exemption from a cut, citing its fight against Islamic State as a cause of hardship. Ultimately, no one wants to pump less because the upside is so limited. Saudi Arabia’s 2014 decision to double down on production in a drive for market share succeeded in making it more difficult for higher-cost producers to thrive as they once had. But having committed to that goal, they also locked themselves into a fight to keep what they’d won.
And while ConocoPhillips’ announcement this week that it plans to cut spending on major projects demonstrates the partial success of the Saudi plan to drive out rivals, it also shows producers see diminishing chances for crude to climb much above $60, said Wells Fargo Fund Management’s James Kochan. The big reason, of course, is latent U.S. supply. Baker Hughes data shows the most rigs at work in the Permian Basin since January. Sanford C. Bernstein analyst Bob Brackett suggests the per-acre price of drilling lease land will rise to $100,000 from about $60,000 now.
The one agreement players seem to have reached is that oil isn’t able to go much higher.
That oil's upside is capped at this point is clear; in fact as both Goldman and Citi have warned, unless OPEC can come to a definitive and auditable agreement - no just another verbal can kicking - in which the member states, by which we mean almost entirely Saudi Arabia as most of the marginal producers are exempt or want to be, immediately curtail production, oil will promptly crash to $40 or below.
But an even more amusing twist is that a plunge in oil prices may be just what US shale producers are waiting for. The reason for that is that while OPEC has been busy desperately jawboning oil higher, US producers have been thinking of the inevitable next step, oil's upcoming reacquaintance with gravity. As a result, as the EIA reports, the amount of WTI short positions held be producers and merchants is just shy of a decade high.
According to a recent EIA report, short positions in West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures contracts held by producers or merchants totaled more than 540,000 contracts as of October 11, 2016, the most since 2007, according to data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Banks have tightened lending standards for some energy companies as crude oil prices declined throughout 2014 and 2015, and some banks require producers to hedge against future price risk as a condition for lending.
Short positions of WTI futures increased at a faster pace than futures contracts of Brent (an international crude oil benchmark) since summer 2016, suggesting U.S. producers are able to drill for oil profitably in the $50 per barrel range. In the Crude Oil Markets Review section of the October Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) discusses an increase in U.S. onshore producers’ capital expenditures that is contributing to rising drilling activity, which EIA projects will lead to an increase in U.S. onshore production by the second quarter of 2017.
Which closes the circle of irony: almost exactly two years ago, Saudi Arabia set off a sequence of events with which it hoped to crush US shale producers and its high cost OPEC competitors. It succeeded partially and briefly, however now the remaining US shale companies are more efficient, restructured, have less debt, a far lower all-in cost of production; and - best of all - they will all make a killing the next time oil plunges, as it will once OPEC's hollow gambit is exposed.
Meanwhile, the last shred of OPEC credibility will be crushed, the truly high cost oil exporters within OPEC will suffer sovereign defaults and social unrest, as will Saudi Arabia. The good news for Riyadh is that at least it got a $17.5 billion in fresh cash from a bunch of idiots who will never get repaid. We are curious just how long that cash will last the country which burned through $98 billion just last year, before the threat of social unrest and financial system collapse returns? Two months? Three?