The Biggest Regret

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kingworldnews.com

With all of the chaos across the globe, here is a look at the biggest regret…

From Jason Goepfert at SentimenTrader:  Bitcoin regret has reached a fever pitch. As consumers of financial media get bombarded with the idea that a small investment in the pseudo currency a few years ago would now be worth untold millions, interest in it has skyrocketed. Again. Based on a variety of measures, sentiment toward bitcoin has jumped to the 3rd highest since 2010, with the prior two equivalent readings leading to large losses over the next one and six months…

The Biggest Regret
 
It’s hard to read any financial press lately and not feel like an idiot for buying into the hottest trend around, bitcoin.

We’re informed that if only we would have bought $100 worth 7 years ago, we’d now be worth $72.0 million. Or $1000 in 2010 would now be worth $35 million. If we’d gone whole hog and bought $1 million worth in 2010, we’d now be the 23rd richest person in the world, just ahead of poor old Sheldon Adelson. Man, if only.

This kind of woulda, coulda, shoulda self-flagellation usually occurs near the peak of a cycle.

Indeed, there has been a sudden jump in web queries for bitcoin, nearing the all-time record from 2013. This kind of intense interest doesn’t occur during downtrends, to say the least.

We can use that data and some price-based measures to get a sense of the sentiment surrounding the pseudo-currency at the moment, which is what is shown below. It’s close to matching the two prior peaks, from April and November 2013.

The sentiment measure first reached its current level on April 8 and then November 18, 2013. A month after those dates, bitcoin was lower by 42% and 23%, respectively. Six months later, it was down by 33% and 35%. In November, though, it gyrated wildly and was up by as much as 64% before dropping just as quickly. It’s also worth mentioning that according to Tommy Thornton, bitcoin has recorded a “13” exhaustion signal according to work pioneered by Tom DeMark and Larry Williams, which is a consistently good trigger after a sentiment extreme setup as we’ve discussed in prior years.

There isn’t a good way to bet for/against bitcoin other than using the currency itself, but for those looking to get in, now probably isn’t an ideal time.