Is It True That The Gold Price Now Has An 83% Chance Of Being Higher In 90 Days?

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Is it true that the gold price now has an 83% chance of being higher in 90 days?

Risk Level Dropping For Gold
 
June 23 (King World News) – This note was Jason Goepfert at SentimenTrader yesterday:  Gold risk. The Optimism Index on gold has been falling fast, down from nearly 70 earlier this month to below 40 now. With the modestly positive price trend, that has lowered the Risk Level to 2.

Over the past three years, when Risk was 2 or below, gold showed a positive return over the next three months on 82 out of 99 days (83% of the time), averaging +5.0%. Seasonality is turning exceptionally positive – now if we could just see hedgers become more positive, it would be a good setup.

King World News note:  Speaking of hedgers, there was more covering by commercials in the gold market…

Below is a 10-year chart of commercial trading in the gold market.

For those wondering about the gold “Optix” that Goepfert referred to, here is a 10-year chart below.

For those wondering what the commercials are up to in the silver market, the chart below shows more commercial short covering there as well.