Catalonia & the Inevitable Split of Spain

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QUESTION:

Hi Marty,

I was expecting a blog about Catalonia after the trial. So, here I am. Things have escalated lately and we are seeing violence in the streets. People are getting angry with no solution nor proposal from Madrid on the table for years. Spain will never allow Catalonia to get independence, a referendum nor anything basically. They will do everything they can to avoid it. We did see that so many times already, working very closely with the law. It seems to me that independence has never been so close though. I am expecting PSOE together with PP to rule after 10N. They will make bad decisions again and I see that after that we might see the last part of the journey to finally get independence. I am not sure how this could/will be done. Spanish will jail everyone, beat everyone and call us nazis, violent, not using the law properly, supremacists etc. EU will not support it again. This time though I have the feeling we will make it. What does you/Socrates see here? How can independence be achieved in these circumstances? Spain has the law (theirs) and the power to stopped, but this has gone too far, we really need to do it. Our future and our children’s future are at high risk sticking within Spain.

Thanks for all your work.

M

ANSWER:

It was the marriage of Ferdinand and Isabella in 1469 which united both crowns and set the stage for the creation of the Kingdom of Spain, at the dawn of the modern era. From a cyclical perspective, Spain will probably split by 2029. The separatist movement for Catalonia remains in play. It is only a question of time. The economic pressure will be to surge in 2021/2022 and that will most likely result in the final separation by 2029 with the potential to come a little early by 2025.