Stagflationary signals from manufacturing surveys - inflation is sticky and degrowth is not slowing it
Bank of Canada hike - CAD yields spike knocking into USTs
JOLTS printed super strong - Fed has more work to do
JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon warned on the economy, "It's a hurricane, you'd better brace yourself."
oh and Fed QT started today.
Put all that together and equities tumbled...
Treasury yields spiked...
With the short-end getting hammered, flattening the yield curve...
And the dollar surged..
For now most desks are focusing on Dimon's comments and the potential 'worsening' of them in the last week:
"You better brace yourself,” Dimon told the roomful of analysts and investors.
“JPMorgan is bracing ourselves and we’re going to be very conservative with our balance sheet.“
At a previous conference, he called those risks "storm clouds," now he's saying
"It's a hurricane. That hurricane is right there, down the road, and coming our way. We don't know if it's a minor storm or if it's a Superstorm Sandy."
Dimon's comments follow Wells Fargo’s CEO warning this morning that higher interest rates mean the economy has to slow, and that a soft-landing scenario was hard to achieve.
Finally, we also note that Fed's Bostic walked back his September "pause" comments, clarifying that this is in no way meant to be a "Fed Put".
【Now新聞台】美國聯儲局最新地區經濟報告顯示，美國經濟有放緩跡象，摩根大通行政總裁戴蒙表示，「經濟颶風」正向美國吹襲。
戴蒙出席一個會議時指，「經濟颶風」正向美國吹襲，投資者要做好準備，現階段未知是一個小颶風，還是一個超級颶風，他促請聯儲局採取有力措施，避免美國經濟陷入衰退。
他又警告，俄烏戰事或持續為全球商品價格構成壓力，有機會將油價推升至每桶150或175美元，並警告聯儲局的量化緊縮，即縮減資產負債表將為市場波動構成風險。
此外，富國銀行行政總裁沙夫亦警告，聯儲局將會發現透過大幅加息推動通脹回落之際，實現經濟軟著陸將會極為困難。
聯儲局昨晚發表俗稱《褐皮書》的最新地區經濟報告，報告顯示，隨著家庭及企業應對利率上升、俄烏戰事，以及新冠疫情的持續干擾，美國部分地區的經濟擴張或會放緩。
報告又指出，聯儲局轄下12個聯儲銀行所屬地區，經濟於4月中至5月底持續增長，但增速十分緩慢，其中4個地區增速已經放慢，受訪的零售業界人士指，面對價格高企，業務略為回軟，而受訪的地產界人士則表示，利率上升及樓價高企，導致樓市出現疲弱跡象，企業並對前景變得審慎。
至於8個地區的受訪企業對未來經濟增長的預期降溫，有3個地區更表達對經濟衰退的憂慮。
對於《褐皮書》顯示美國經濟增長有放緩跡象，聖路易斯聯儲銀行行長布拉德指，經濟增長放緩是自然的，聯儲局預期，美國經濟增速將放緩至更符合美國經濟長期潛在增長的水平，不少經濟學家認為介乎1.75%至2%，並指現階段指通脹已見頂屬這之尚早，又認同每次會議加息0.5厘，指加息步伐不應太快，重申支持年底前利率升至3.5厘，以遏制通脹，若屆時成功遏制通脹，明年較後時間及後年可以減息。
至於三藩市聯儲銀行行長戴利則表示，聯儲局應持續加息，直至通脹放緩，支持接下來6月及7月會議各加息0.5厘，但不想就往後的加息行動作出預測，她又支持利率年底時升至2.5厘的中性水平。
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