能儲齊呢套幣, 須多謝兩位朋友, 不過唔知佢地想唔想俾人知, 所以我都唔講名啦, 只希望佢地知我心中感激 !
呢套已變收藏幣多過增值幣啦 !
好彩 PM 已一早証實唔再重鑄第一期生肖 !
www.perthmintbullion.com/blog
2012年4月28日 星期六
澳洲 Perth Mint 重鑄沒賣出的笑翠鳥限額
1990年舊版澳洲笑翠鳥 2011年尾在華興買 600蚊
舊版方盒只用到 1998 年, 之後發行的全是用圓盒
Kitco Forum
Perth mint has gone back and reminted the 1992 Kooks to the 300K mintage limit. Many dealers had or have these in stock at low premiums compared to usual Kooks. If you are a collector of these I would suggest just wait until Perth remints other years. If you are a dealer I would dump your old year Kooks - the premiums across all years of the Kook line should crash with the prospects of all previous years being flooded with new Kooks.
Here are past mintages and how many Perth can actual pump out.
Perth Mint 1oz Kookaburra Coins
Year ... Max Mintage ...Actual Mintage ... Difference
1990 ... 300,000 ........300,000 ................0
1991 ....300,000 ........278,136 .......... 21,864
1992 ....300,000 ....... 195,118 ..........104,882
1993 ... 300,000 ........165,406 ..........134,594
1994 ....300,000 ........153,414 ..........146,586
1995 ... 300,000 ....... 131,411 ......... 168,589
1996 ... 300,000 ........146,286 ......... 153,714
1997 ....300,000 ........147,781 ..........152,219
1998 ... 300,000 .........91,550 ......... 208,450
1999 ....300,000 ........ 98,513 ......... 201,487
2000 ... 300,000 ........ 93,238 ..........206,762
2001 ... 300,000 ....... 158,969 ..........141,031
2002 ... 300,000 .........76,245 ..........223,755
2003 ....300,000 ........ 86,737 ......... 213,263
2004 ....300,000 .........74,059 ......... 225,941
2005 ....300,000 .........80,336 ..........219,664
2006 ....300,000 ........ 73,765 ..........226,235
2007 ... 300,000 ........197,229 ..........102,771
2008 ... 300,000 ........300,000 ................0
2009 ....300,000 ....... 300,000 ............... 0
2010 ....300,000 ........300,000 ................0
2011 ... 500,000 ........500,000 ............... 0
2012 ... 500,000 ........500,000 ............... 0
1992年笑翠鳥, 2011年八月在東洋買 460蚊似乎新發行的 1992年笑翠鳥對比舊的有少少唔同, 因為用咗新印章 !
forums.silverstackers.com
I enquired with the Perth Mint regarding the dies used to produce the current batch of 1992 Kookaburras being distributed, to my relatively untrained eye, the new coins appeared to have finer/thinner details particularly in the branches and leaves above the kook's head.
Here's the response regarding which dies were used:
So basically differences depending on the age of the individual die sets used to strike a particular batch of coins.
To produce up to 300,000 coins it is necessary to prepare several sets of dies. All dies for 1992 Kookaburra coins are made from the original working hob.
Any minor differences are down to where any set of dies is in its life cycle.
Every coin is inspected and approved for issue only if it is within our quality parameters. Once the strike no longer satisfies the required level of detail, the dies are scrapped and we move on to the next set.
應升不升美元要小心
蘋果日報
國際貨幣基金組織（ IMF）於 G20會議上成功取得逾 4300億美元的額外資源，加上德國商業信心延續升勢，促使美元上周低收。雖然周末期間歐元區再傳壞消息，荷蘭未能就削赤達成協議，首相率領內閣總辭，而評級機構惠譽亦警告荷蘭最高評級可能不保，但對歐元的打擊僅曇花一現，主要是歐元區多國包括荷蘭、西班牙和意大利等拍債均見順利，紓緩了市場的不安情緒。 歐元區公佈的 PMI綜合指數進一步萎縮，德國製造業指數更由 48.4急跌至 46.2，法國製造業亦由 50.1滑落至 46.4，擴張變萎縮，反映歐元區經濟陷入衰退無可避免。
主要貨幣好淡爭持
投資者幾乎一面倒睇淡歐元，但歐元卻未見急挫，主要仍是西班牙指標孳息跌穿 6厘的心理關口，短期內債務爆煲的機會不大，即使西班牙其後被標普連降兩級，對歐元的打擊亦小於預期。 歐元應跌不跌的情況，亦出現在英鎊和日圓身上。英國剛公佈的首季 GDP倒退 0.2%，連同去年第四季萎縮 0.3%，令英國陷入上世紀 70年代後首次雙底衰退，但英鎊僅短暫受壓，跌至 1.608附近已迅速找到支持，其後更升越 1.6美元，創七個半月高位。 日本央行剛擴大購買資產規模 5萬億圓，日圓亦未遇太大沽壓。當然，美元應升不升，亦與本身的因素有關，尤其聯儲局於上調增長、通脹及就業預測後，主席伯南克仍堅持維持寬鬆貨幣政策至 2014年底，又強調若有需要，不排除採取額外措施刺激經濟。聯儲局未有把 QE3撤離桌面，限制了美元上升的空間。 近期主要貨幣不上不落，顯示好淡雙方仍在角力。既然一些來自歐日的利淡因素，對美元幫助亦有限，反映美元續區間爭持，只要參考近期波幅入市，勝望仍高，但追捧應升不升的美元，須加倍小心。
國際貨幣基金組織（ IMF）於 G20會議上成功取得逾 4300億美元的額外資源，加上德國商業信心延續升勢，促使美元上周低收。雖然周末期間歐元區再傳壞消息，荷蘭未能就削赤達成協議，首相率領內閣總辭，而評級機構惠譽亦警告荷蘭最高評級可能不保，但對歐元的打擊僅曇花一現，主要是歐元區多國包括荷蘭、西班牙和意大利等拍債均見順利，紓緩了市場的不安情緒。 歐元區公佈的 PMI綜合指數進一步萎縮，德國製造業指數更由 48.4急跌至 46.2，法國製造業亦由 50.1滑落至 46.4，擴張變萎縮，反映歐元區經濟陷入衰退無可避免。
主要貨幣好淡爭持
投資者幾乎一面倒睇淡歐元，但歐元卻未見急挫，主要仍是西班牙指標孳息跌穿 6厘的心理關口，短期內債務爆煲的機會不大，即使西班牙其後被標普連降兩級，對歐元的打擊亦小於預期。 歐元應跌不跌的情況，亦出現在英鎊和日圓身上。英國剛公佈的首季 GDP倒退 0.2%，連同去年第四季萎縮 0.3%，令英國陷入上世紀 70年代後首次雙底衰退，但英鎊僅短暫受壓，跌至 1.608附近已迅速找到支持，其後更升越 1.6美元，創七個半月高位。 日本央行剛擴大購買資產規模 5萬億圓，日圓亦未遇太大沽壓。當然，美元應升不升，亦與本身的因素有關，尤其聯儲局於上調增長、通脹及就業預測後，主席伯南克仍堅持維持寬鬆貨幣政策至 2014年底，又強調若有需要，不排除採取額外措施刺激經濟。聯儲局未有把 QE3撤離桌面，限制了美元上升的空間。 近期主要貨幣不上不落，顯示好淡雙方仍在角力。既然一些來自歐日的利淡因素，對美元幫助亦有限，反映美元續區間爭持，只要參考近期波幅入市，勝望仍高，但追捧應升不升的美元，須加倍小心。
全國人大修法 劍指「雙國籍」
文匯報
香港文匯報訊（記者 劉凝哲 北京報道）近年來，內地擁有「雙重國籍」的人士越來越多，這一違反《國籍法》的行為甚至成為「沒人管」的潛規則。「雙重國籍」監管問題已引發全國人大常委 會關注。常委金碩仁認為，國家應建立統一的出入境管理和中國公民在境外加入外國國籍信息平台，實現有關管理部門信息共享，以此避免「雙重國籍」。
香港文匯報訊（記者 劉凝哲 北京報道）近年來，內地擁有「雙重國籍」的人士越來越多，這一違反《國籍法》的行為甚至成為「沒人管」的潛規則。「雙重國籍」監管問題已引發全國人大常委 會關注。常委金碩仁認為，國家應建立統一的出入境管理和中國公民在境外加入外國國籍信息平台，實現有關管理部門信息共享，以此避免「雙重國籍」。
昨日閉幕的全國人大常委會會議，並未將已二次審議的出入境管理法提請表決。這意味著出入境管理法將進行再度修改，在此後的常委會會議上進行三審。值得關注的是，「雙重國籍」這一被輿論熱議已久的問題，此番得到全國人大常委會的關注。
缺乏監管 情況趨嚴重
中國《國籍法》規定，「中華人民共和國不承認中國公民具有雙重國籍」；「定居在外國的中國公民，自願加入或取得外國國籍的，即自動喪失中國國籍。」然而，「雙重國籍」現象並未杜絕，甚至愈演愈烈。
「改革開放以來，有較大數量的留學人員和以其他方式移居國外的中國人，在取得外國國籍後，並不報
告，擁有的中國居民身份證還保留著，戶口也沒有註銷」，全國人大常委會陳宜瑜委員表示，上述人員從國籍來說已算外國人，但他們當中部分人不僅繼續使用中國
居民身份證，甚至還更換了二代身份證。
對於「雙重國籍」問題，輿論界正反方均存在。支持方認為，中國人才流失的形勢十分嚴峻，應支持「雙重國籍」，以吸引在海外的優秀人才「回流」。而反對方則
強調，中國不承認「雙重國籍」有其歷史原因，1955年之前中國「默認」「雙重國籍」。但此後，印尼等東南亞國家爆發大規模「排華潮」，懷疑中國向其「輸
出革命」。此後，中國法律則明令禁止「雙重國籍」。
嚴肅護法 防貪官外逃
全國政協委員、農工黨中央常委葉建農在此前全國「兩會」上提出，「雙重國籍」問題要麼使之合法化，
要麼就要認真監管，依法嚴格「堵死」這種現象，以維護法律的嚴肅性。媒體引述有關官方表態稱，國籍法修改涉及中國外交政策的調整，是一個非常敏感的政治話
題，短期內的國籍政策不可能放開。
同時，部分輿論亦擔心，若承認「雙重國籍」，將拉大國人的不平等感，令少數「雙重國籍」的精英脫離普通民眾。此外，亦會為官員外逃等問題提供便利。
正在審議中的出入境管理法，則明顯開始加大對「雙重國籍」的監管力度。全國人大法律委員會副主任委
員張柏林表示，目前出入境管理信息系統由公安、外交等各部門分別建立，但從發展趨勢看，應當由國家建立統一的出入境管理信息平台，以有利於部門之間的信息
共享。委員們認為，通過技術平台的建立，將有助於「雙重國籍」的監管問題。
2012年4月27日 星期五
The Royal Mint expands into the bullion market
英國 Royal Mint 會跟時代轉發行 9999金幣和 999銀幣 !
blog.royalmint.com
As part of The Royal Mint’s growth plans into bullion, a new specification Britannia bullion 1oz gold (99.99% purity) and silver (99.9% purity) has been devised, creating a more refined product. We have also reviewed our packaging, moving from blisters to more durable tubes for easy storage and convenience.
2012年4月24日 星期二
深女提款遭挾持轉帳 按密碼後強行拖開 銀行不負責
咁都得 ?
hk.news.yahoo.com【明報專訊】深圳一女子日前到銀行自動櫃員機（ATM）取款，不料插入提款卡、輸入密碼後，身後突然閃出兩名男子，強行把她拉開，第3名男子則上前把卡內的2萬元存款全部轉走。女子大聲呼救，當時有十幾名途人正在其他櫃員機前排隊取款，銀行的保安員也在值班，但竟無一人肯伸出援手。事後，銀行回應「該事件與銀行方面沒有任何關係」。 2漢圍堵 另一人轉走2萬 《深圳晚報》報道，事發在上周二（17日）晚上8時，當時劉女士在寶安區黃田社區外的中國郵政儲蓄銀行ATM取款，「當時我剛剛將銀行卡密碼輸入櫃員機，旁邊一名男子就碰了我一下，我側過頭看他的時候，另外一名男子也過來了，兩人把我擠到一邊，然後拖到了後面。」劉女士還沒反應過來，一名年約40歲、身高約 1.7米、身形微胖的男子就走到ATM前操作起來，還把卡內的2萬元存款全部轉入懷疑是他的戶口。「當時拽着我的兩名男子還往地上扔了一張銀行卡，跟我說地上的才是我的卡，他們就是想分散我的注意力。」 大聲呼救 十幾人不施援手 劉女士大聲呼救，當時有十幾人在另外幾個櫃員機前排隊取款，銀行的保安員也在值班，「我大喊『快來幫我』，但他們只是用眼睛齊刷刷地看着我，沒有一個人肯伸出援手。」在3名男子離開現場後，劉女士自行報警。 銀行：監控系統正好壞了 《深圳商報》報道，警方引述銀行說法，稱事發時「監控系統正好壞掉了」，當時雖然有保安員當值，但只是「拉了一張櫈坐在那裏而已」，而這名保安員聲稱並未聽到有人呼救。該銀行前日簡短回應事件說﹕「經調查，當天一名儲戶在該行某支行取完款後，發生了一起社會事件。該事件與銀行方面沒有任何關係。」 劉女士對此非常不滿，她認為ATM設在銀行內，而且有保安員當值，自己到銀行取款，銀行就需要負起保護顧客生命財產安全的責任。目前，事件仍在調查中，未有人被捕。
歐洲墮衰退深淵
蘋果日報
德國 PMI大收縮 荷蘭隨時被降級
【本報綜合報道】歐洲政治經濟陰霾累街坊。歐元區 4月採購經理指數（ PMI）連跌 3個月至 47.4的 5個月低位，區內龍頭德國的 PMI創近 3年低位，加上法國選情有變、荷蘭信貸評級危，德股昨晚瀉逾 3%，美股早段勁跌超過 180點，今日亞太股市相信冇運行。 負責製作 PMI指數的 Markit預測，歐洲經濟衰退將於第二季加速。避險情緒升溫，德國 5年期國債孳息跌至歐元區成立以來最低，報 0.62厘。
德國債息創新低
德國 4月 PMI初值數字意外地大幅收縮，勁跌至 46.3，遠遜市場預期的 49，上月數字為 46.3， 50為 PMI的盛衰分界線，低於 50反映製造業正在收縮。收縮速度乃自 09年 7月以來最快，顯示作為德國主要貿易夥伴的歐元區周邊國家經濟疲不能興，已影響到區內核心國家。至於區內第二大國法國，其 4月 PMI製造業初值指數則為 47.3，雖符市場預期，但仍處於收縮階段。 另外，法國首輪總統選舉由社會黨的奧朗德領先，市場質疑他一旦當選後對歐債危機有負面影響，拖累歐股表現。 歐元區 4月 PMI初值為 47.4，低於市場預期 49.3，較上月的 49.1低。 Markit首席經濟師 Chris Williamson指，德國增長接近停滯，法國則因臨近總統大選，不明朗因素增加，加上市場憂慮各國實施緊縮政策，對經濟有負面影響，加速歐元區衰退。英、法、德股尾段分別下跌 2.32%至 3.67%；歐元兌美元最多曾跌 0.75%，報 1.312。
荷蘭拗削赤 料解散政府
另一方面，傳統上為歐元區內最穩健經濟體系之一的荷蘭，國內各黨派未能就削赤達成共識， 3A信貸評級危危乎，區內投資者信心受打擊，拖累歐股大瀉。荷蘭於剛過去的周末舉行削赤措施會議。歐盟要求荷蘭削赤達國內生產總值（ GDP）的 3%，以保持該國的 3A信貸評級，荷蘭需削減 140億至 160億歐元的預算，以達成目標。不過，反對歐盟的極右黨派新自由黨領袖 Geert Wilders拒絕大手削赤，指不會容許荷蘭國民掏腰包以應付歐盟無理的需求，談判最終破裂。 首相呂特（ Mark Rutte）於周一舉行緊急內閣會議，呂特並已宣佈辭職，解散政府並提早大選，令歐股跌幅擴大。分析師預期，倘荷蘭提早大選，最快將於今年 9月或 10月舉行。 分析指，歐元區內再有一個「核心」國家面對政治及經濟危機，影響區內投資者信心。前荷蘭首相、現任歐盟委員副主席 Neelie Kroes批評，新自由黨令該國的競爭力、信貸能力及 3A評級危危乎，債息大升，代價非常大。 意大利裕信銀行環球研究策略師 Christian Stocker指，由於荷蘭過去一直為區內較穩定的國家，因此是次危機顯示歐洲的問題及區內緊張氣氛升溫。荷蘭 10年期國債孳息曾升 8點子，報 2.41厘。
德國 PMI大收縮 荷蘭隨時被降級
【本報綜合報道】歐洲政治經濟陰霾累街坊。歐元區 4月採購經理指數（ PMI）連跌 3個月至 47.4的 5個月低位，區內龍頭德國的 PMI創近 3年低位，加上法國選情有變、荷蘭信貸評級危，德股昨晚瀉逾 3%，美股早段勁跌超過 180點，今日亞太股市相信冇運行。 負責製作 PMI指數的 Markit預測，歐洲經濟衰退將於第二季加速。避險情緒升溫，德國 5年期國債孳息跌至歐元區成立以來最低，報 0.62厘。
德國債息創新低
德國 4月 PMI初值數字意外地大幅收縮，勁跌至 46.3，遠遜市場預期的 49，上月數字為 46.3， 50為 PMI的盛衰分界線，低於 50反映製造業正在收縮。收縮速度乃自 09年 7月以來最快，顯示作為德國主要貿易夥伴的歐元區周邊國家經濟疲不能興，已影響到區內核心國家。至於區內第二大國法國，其 4月 PMI製造業初值指數則為 47.3，雖符市場預期，但仍處於收縮階段。 另外，法國首輪總統選舉由社會黨的奧朗德領先，市場質疑他一旦當選後對歐債危機有負面影響，拖累歐股表現。 歐元區 4月 PMI初值為 47.4，低於市場預期 49.3，較上月的 49.1低。 Markit首席經濟師 Chris Williamson指，德國增長接近停滯，法國則因臨近總統大選，不明朗因素增加，加上市場憂慮各國實施緊縮政策，對經濟有負面影響，加速歐元區衰退。英、法、德股尾段分別下跌 2.32%至 3.67%；歐元兌美元最多曾跌 0.75%，報 1.312。
荷蘭拗削赤 料解散政府
另一方面，傳統上為歐元區內最穩健經濟體系之一的荷蘭，國內各黨派未能就削赤達成共識， 3A信貸評級危危乎，區內投資者信心受打擊，拖累歐股大瀉。荷蘭於剛過去的周末舉行削赤措施會議。歐盟要求荷蘭削赤達國內生產總值（ GDP）的 3%，以保持該國的 3A信貸評級，荷蘭需削減 140億至 160億歐元的預算，以達成目標。不過，反對歐盟的極右黨派新自由黨領袖 Geert Wilders拒絕大手削赤，指不會容許荷蘭國民掏腰包以應付歐盟無理的需求，談判最終破裂。 首相呂特（ Mark Rutte）於周一舉行緊急內閣會議，呂特並已宣佈辭職，解散政府並提早大選，令歐股跌幅擴大。分析師預期，倘荷蘭提早大選，最快將於今年 9月或 10月舉行。 分析指，歐元區內再有一個「核心」國家面對政治及經濟危機，影響區內投資者信心。前荷蘭首相、現任歐盟委員副主席 Neelie Kroes批評，新自由黨令該國的競爭力、信貸能力及 3A評級危危乎，債息大升，代價非常大。 意大利裕信銀行環球研究策略師 Christian Stocker指，由於荷蘭過去一直為區內較穩定的國家，因此是次危機顯示歐洲的問題及區內緊張氣氛升溫。荷蘭 10年期國債孳息曾升 8點子，報 2.41厘。
2012年4月21日 星期六
英鍍鎳鑄新幣 或致皮膚敏感
文匯報
英國年初開始推出全新5及10便士硬幣(見圖)，一批皮膚科醫生近日在《英國醫學期刊》網站發表公開信，稱鑄造材料是瑞典政府已禁止的鍍鎳，稱鍍鎳硬幣可能引發鎳過敏及濕疹等皮膚病症，質疑皇家鑄幣局事前未有進行健康風險測試，要求重新評估致敏風險。
英國年初開始推出全新5及10便士硬幣(見圖)，一批皮膚科醫生近日在《英國醫學期刊》網站發表公開信，稱鑄造材料是瑞典政府已禁止的鍍鎳，稱鍍鎳硬幣可能引發鎳過敏及濕疹等皮膚病症，質疑皇家鑄幣局事前未有進行健康風險測試，要求重新評估致敏風險。
新幣為鋼鑄鍍鎳，而非自二戰沿用至今的銅鎳合金，原因是鍍鎳成本較低。公開信稱，財政部或鑄幣局沒考慮到雖然新幣製作成本減少，但同時可能增加國家醫療開支。
■《每日電訊報》/英國廣播公司
2012年4月20日 星期五
Perth Mint 收藏幣
2012年4月18日 星期三
Details Of The $291 Trillion In Derivatives To Which American Taxpayers Are Exposed
www.jsmineset.com
April 17, 2012
The entire US GDP is less than $15 trillion each year. The gross notional amount of derivatives issued in the USA is more than $291 trillion. Does that sound like a lot? Apologists for derivatives dealers don’t like it when we talk about derivatives in terms of the notional totals. Large numbers, like these, discussed publicly, frighten too many people. According to the apologists, gross "notional" is misleading, because it does not include "hedges," offsets and the limits on interest rate risk.
In fact, the total amount of derivatives cannot be accurately presented in any other form but gross notional obligations. The risk to society cannot be judged in any other way. That’s why the FDIC, US Comptroller of the Currency and the Bank for International Settlement (BIS) all use gross notional.
Final net obligations can only be determined when and if derivatives are triggered. The net can be significantly lower, but neither we, nor the banks themselves actually know exactly what that is. It depends upon the balance sheets of every counter-party, and the extent to which interest rates will change in the future. Not even the banks have full information about either topic..
There is another number called the "net current credit exposure" (NCCE) that some erroneously claim represents the risk imposed by derivatives. According to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), the NCCE for American bank derivatives amounts to about $370 billion. That’s a huge amount of money, but it’s not $291 trillion.
Unfortunately, NCCE provides no information about ultimate exposure to loss. It merely measures the net cost of unwinding the contracts, before the occurrence of any trigger event. NCCE is the current market value of the contracts, and nothing more.
There are also a number of "value at risk" calculations that the banks provide. These are not standardized, and are based upon vastly different models and assumptions, from bank to bank. Unfortunately, a very high level of inconsistency and lack of any standards for measurement causes such models to be highly unreliable. For example, during the 2008 credit crisis, similar proprietary models used to determine subprime credit risk failed, in the infinitely smaller subprime mortgage market.
In reality, it is impossible to know the true risk of $291 trillion in New York issued derivatives (ignoring the additional $417 trillion issued out of London). A sudden very large increase in interest rates, alone, could trigger trillions of dollars in payments. One could argue that the Federal Reserve could force interest rates down at any time, but that is not entirely true.
If the US dollar came under heavy selling pressure, for an extended period of time, as has happened to the British pound, Chinese yuan, Japanese yen, German mark, Austrian shilling, Argentine peso, and a host of other currencies in the course of history, the Fed would be able to defend the dollar only at the risk of inducing widespread systemic failure.
That is why interest rates cannot rise for many years, regardless of whether that destroys its status as the world’s reserve currency, and/or creates extreme levels of inflation or hyperinflation. It is also one more reason for the government to lie about the true inflation rate, to avoid pressure to raise interest rates (see shadowstats.com.)
All the too-big-to-fail (TBTF) banks, with the exception of Morgan Stanley (which uses its SIPC-insured division) are using FDIC-insured depository divisions to house derivatives. That provides them with lower collateral requirements because FDIC depositary units usually have higher credit ratings than investment banks and/or bank holding companies. It also means that, ultimately, the American people will pay for losses.
While no one can determine the exact exposure, it is safe to say is that the risk is astronomical, and imposes a grave risk upon American taxpayers. It is not surprising that FDIC staff is not thrilled with US bank derivative exposures. In fact, Sheila Bair, who until recently ran the FDIC, is as disgusted with the Federal Reserve slush fund and the banking cartel as you and I. A few days ago, she penned a satirical article heavily critical of Fed policy and published it in the Washington Post.
The FDIC staff doesn’t like the fact that the Federal Reserve keeps allowing banks to put their derivatives inside insured depositary institutions. This is mostly for the same reason the banks want to put them there. Insolvency laws provides priority to derivatives counter-parties over the FDIC. If and when a bank is liquidated, the FDIC will be on the hook to repay depositors, but the failing bank will be stripped of all assets.
The US government’s full faith and credit guaranty means massive amounts of new US Treasuries will need to be sold, massive numbers of new counterfeit dollars will need to be printed under color of law, and significant tax hikes will need to be levied to pay the bill.
FDIC opposition, however, has had little to no effect on keeping derivatives out of insured units. The Federal Reserve, and not the FDIC, has the authority to approve the practice and it keeps doing so. The FDIC staff can complain privately, and issue regulations forcing disclosures, but little more. But, because of the disclosure requirements, more detailed information than ever is now available concerning derivatives.
In fact, FDIC has made far more information about derivatives public, over the last 3 years, than the Fed and OCC ever disclosed over decades. The numbers reveal a frightening concentration of risk. Five large "TBTF" US banks hold 96% of derivatives issued in the United States.
But the Bank for International Settlements in Switzerland reports that about $707.6 trillion worth of derivative obligations have been issued worldwide as of the end of 2011. That leaves about $417 trillion worth of derivatives that are not accounted for, in the FDIC records.
The surplus derivatives have been written mostly in London. Part of the exposure is held on the balance sheets of foreign, mostly European banks, including Deutsche Bank, PNB Paribas, Credit Suisse, UBS et. al. But, a large number of seemingly foreign derivatives is also hidden inside bank divisions, owned by American institutions, who do business in London. Such derivatives are not reported to the Fed, the OCC or the FDIC. Lenient British banking laws insure that these opaque obligations are not subject to public scrutiny.
Ultimately, if London-issued derivatives eventually cause massive losses to a UK bank division, the US based bank that owns it would end up being closed or bailed out. Ultimately, just like the derivatives issued in New York, the American taxpayer and dollar-denominated saver will pay the bill. Unfortunately, in spite of this, details about London-issued derivatives are not publicly disclosed or I cannot find them. If such data exists, a British lawyer or someone knowledgeable enough about UK regulations and bureaucracy would be needed to ferret it out.
Even in the absence of London data, however, investors should find this incomplete article enlightening. It is useful to obtain a general picture of the risk of investing in shares of the five big derivatives dealers. Here’s how the dollar amounts break down, as of December 31, 2011 in thousands of dollars.
JPMorgan Chase (JPM)
April 17, 2012
The entire US GDP is less than $15 trillion each year. The gross notional amount of derivatives issued in the USA is more than $291 trillion. Does that sound like a lot? Apologists for derivatives dealers don’t like it when we talk about derivatives in terms of the notional totals. Large numbers, like these, discussed publicly, frighten too many people. According to the apologists, gross "notional" is misleading, because it does not include "hedges," offsets and the limits on interest rate risk.
In fact, the total amount of derivatives cannot be accurately presented in any other form but gross notional obligations. The risk to society cannot be judged in any other way. That’s why the FDIC, US Comptroller of the Currency and the Bank for International Settlement (BIS) all use gross notional.
Final net obligations can only be determined when and if derivatives are triggered. The net can be significantly lower, but neither we, nor the banks themselves actually know exactly what that is. It depends upon the balance sheets of every counter-party, and the extent to which interest rates will change in the future. Not even the banks have full information about either topic..
There is another number called the "net current credit exposure" (NCCE) that some erroneously claim represents the risk imposed by derivatives. According to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), the NCCE for American bank derivatives amounts to about $370 billion. That’s a huge amount of money, but it’s not $291 trillion.
Unfortunately, NCCE provides no information about ultimate exposure to loss. It merely measures the net cost of unwinding the contracts, before the occurrence of any trigger event. NCCE is the current market value of the contracts, and nothing more.
There are also a number of "value at risk" calculations that the banks provide. These are not standardized, and are based upon vastly different models and assumptions, from bank to bank. Unfortunately, a very high level of inconsistency and lack of any standards for measurement causes such models to be highly unreliable. For example, during the 2008 credit crisis, similar proprietary models used to determine subprime credit risk failed, in the infinitely smaller subprime mortgage market.
In reality, it is impossible to know the true risk of $291 trillion in New York issued derivatives (ignoring the additional $417 trillion issued out of London). A sudden very large increase in interest rates, alone, could trigger trillions of dollars in payments. One could argue that the Federal Reserve could force interest rates down at any time, but that is not entirely true.
If the US dollar came under heavy selling pressure, for an extended period of time, as has happened to the British pound, Chinese yuan, Japanese yen, German mark, Austrian shilling, Argentine peso, and a host of other currencies in the course of history, the Fed would be able to defend the dollar only at the risk of inducing widespread systemic failure.
That is why interest rates cannot rise for many years, regardless of whether that destroys its status as the world’s reserve currency, and/or creates extreme levels of inflation or hyperinflation. It is also one more reason for the government to lie about the true inflation rate, to avoid pressure to raise interest rates (see shadowstats.com.)
All the too-big-to-fail (TBTF) banks, with the exception of Morgan Stanley (which uses its SIPC-insured division) are using FDIC-insured depository divisions to house derivatives. That provides them with lower collateral requirements because FDIC depositary units usually have higher credit ratings than investment banks and/or bank holding companies. It also means that, ultimately, the American people will pay for losses.
While no one can determine the exact exposure, it is safe to say is that the risk is astronomical, and imposes a grave risk upon American taxpayers. It is not surprising that FDIC staff is not thrilled with US bank derivative exposures. In fact, Sheila Bair, who until recently ran the FDIC, is as disgusted with the Federal Reserve slush fund and the banking cartel as you and I. A few days ago, she penned a satirical article heavily critical of Fed policy and published it in the Washington Post.
The FDIC staff doesn’t like the fact that the Federal Reserve keeps allowing banks to put their derivatives inside insured depositary institutions. This is mostly for the same reason the banks want to put them there. Insolvency laws provides priority to derivatives counter-parties over the FDIC. If and when a bank is liquidated, the FDIC will be on the hook to repay depositors, but the failing bank will be stripped of all assets.
The US government’s full faith and credit guaranty means massive amounts of new US Treasuries will need to be sold, massive numbers of new counterfeit dollars will need to be printed under color of law, and significant tax hikes will need to be levied to pay the bill.
FDIC opposition, however, has had little to no effect on keeping derivatives out of insured units. The Federal Reserve, and not the FDIC, has the authority to approve the practice and it keeps doing so. The FDIC staff can complain privately, and issue regulations forcing disclosures, but little more. But, because of the disclosure requirements, more detailed information than ever is now available concerning derivatives.
In fact, FDIC has made far more information about derivatives public, over the last 3 years, than the Fed and OCC ever disclosed over decades. The numbers reveal a frightening concentration of risk. Five large "TBTF" US banks hold 96% of derivatives issued in the United States.
But the Bank for International Settlements in Switzerland reports that about $707.6 trillion worth of derivative obligations have been issued worldwide as of the end of 2011. That leaves about $417 trillion worth of derivatives that are not accounted for, in the FDIC records.
The surplus derivatives have been written mostly in London. Part of the exposure is held on the balance sheets of foreign, mostly European banks, including Deutsche Bank, PNB Paribas, Credit Suisse, UBS et. al. But, a large number of seemingly foreign derivatives is also hidden inside bank divisions, owned by American institutions, who do business in London. Such derivatives are not reported to the Fed, the OCC or the FDIC. Lenient British banking laws insure that these opaque obligations are not subject to public scrutiny.
Ultimately, if London-issued derivatives eventually cause massive losses to a UK bank division, the US based bank that owns it would end up being closed or bailed out. Ultimately, just like the derivatives issued in New York, the American taxpayer and dollar-denominated saver will pay the bill. Unfortunately, in spite of this, details about London-issued derivatives are not publicly disclosed or I cannot find them. If such data exists, a British lawyer or someone knowledgeable enough about UK regulations and bureaucracy would be needed to ferret it out.
Even in the absence of London data, however, investors should find this incomplete article enlightening. It is useful to obtain a general picture of the risk of investing in shares of the five big derivatives dealers. Here’s how the dollar amounts break down, as of December 31, 2011 in thousands of dollars.
JPMorgan Chase (JPM)
2012年4月16日 星期一
S.A Reserve Bank Admits Underweight Krugerrands Were Produced in 2011
2011 krugerrands(南非富格林金幣) 過輕唔好買, 銀行賣出的可以回收 !
www.silverdoctors.com
The Reserve Bank of South Africa has admitted that it produced underweight gold Krugerrands in April and May of 2011.
Perhaps they should have used a little tungsten rather than simply minting the coins underweight.
We’d like to know our readers’ thoughts on this:
Is this occurrence merely a production glitch, an intentional attempt by the South African Reserve Bank to skim some extra gold off each coin, or combined with the recent salted tungsten gold report, are the banksters attempting to condition the sheople that physical precious metals cannot be trusted?
Johannesburg – Some Krugerrands have been found to be underweight with too little gold used in their manufacture, the Sunday Times reported in its first edition on Saturday evening.
The newspaper said the SA Mint Company, a subsidiary of the Reserve Bank, had admitted that it made underweight proof or collector Krugerrands.
In a statement on Friday the Reserve Bank confirmed that the coins in question were produced in April and May 2011.
A Krugerrand sells for about R14 000 and is the world’s most popular gold coin and one of South Africa’s most famed collector’s items. According to the Sunday Times, coin dealers were called to the SA Mint Company last year and told about the problematic coins. Apparently they had to sign a confidentiality agreement that forbade them from talking about what they knew.
The Reserve Bank had told dealers that suspect coins would be exchanged by the SA Mint Company.
www.silverdoctors.com
The Reserve Bank of South Africa has admitted that it produced underweight gold Krugerrands in April and May of 2011.
Perhaps they should have used a little tungsten rather than simply minting the coins underweight.
We’d like to know our readers’ thoughts on this:
Is this occurrence merely a production glitch, an intentional attempt by the South African Reserve Bank to skim some extra gold off each coin, or combined with the recent salted tungsten gold report, are the banksters attempting to condition the sheople that physical precious metals cannot be trusted?
Johannesburg – Some Krugerrands have been found to be underweight with too little gold used in their manufacture, the Sunday Times reported in its first edition on Saturday evening.
The newspaper said the SA Mint Company, a subsidiary of the Reserve Bank, had admitted that it made underweight proof or collector Krugerrands.
In a statement on Friday the Reserve Bank confirmed that the coins in question were produced in April and May 2011.
A Krugerrand sells for about R14 000 and is the world’s most popular gold coin and one of South Africa’s most famed collector’s items. According to the Sunday Times, coin dealers were called to the SA Mint Company last year and told about the problematic coins. Apparently they had to sign a confidentiality agreement that forbade them from talking about what they knew.
The Reserve Bank had told dealers that suspect coins would be exchanged by the SA Mint Company.
2012年4月15日 星期日
人民幣市場化加速 匯率波幅倍增至1%
文匯報
香港文匯報訊 (記者 王曉雪 北京報道) 內地匯率改革再現「大動作」。央行14日發佈公告稱，將外匯市場人民幣兌美元匯率浮動幅度由原先的千分之五擴大至百分之一。這是自2005年7月匯改以來，央行第三次調整匯率，也是幅度最大的一次。學者表示，今年人民幣料升值3%，此次擴大人民幣匯率浮動幅度後，人民幣不會出現大幅升值。
公告顯示，銀行間即期外匯市場人民幣兌美元交易價浮動幅度擴大至百分之一，外匯指定銀行為客戶提供當日美元最高現匯賣出價與最低現匯買入價之差不得超過當日匯率中間價的幅度由1%擴大至2%。
業界看好 邁向自由浮動
對於此次擴大人民幣匯率浮動幅度，相關專家反應相當積極，財經專家魯政委就表示，現在是1%，未來就會是2%、2.5%，相信未來人民幣匯率將形成自由浮動。
而擴大匯率浮動幅度，無疑是加速人民幣匯率形成機制更快向市場化轉變的重要一步。中國銀行戰略發展部高級經濟師周景彤認為，人民幣國際化必然需要更為靈活的匯率機制，第一步就是增加匯率彈性，而將人民幣對美元的匯率波動區間由0.5%擴大到1%，符合「雙向波動」的政策方向。
六成網民 憧憬升值機會
在央行公告發佈之後，內地民間多數認為人民幣會加快升值速度。新浪財經一項關於人民幣匯率走勢的網調顯示，58%的網民表示看好人民幣升值。而騰訊網相關調查也顯示，約63%的網民認為人民幣會因波動區間擴大而大幅升值，而認為今年人民幣將升值5%以內的網民最多，佔接受調查人數的30%。
事實上，自05年7月匯改以來，人民幣匯率已有較大幅度升值。央行數據顯示，去年人民幣對美元升值5.11%，而從2005年人民幣匯率形成機制改革以來到去年底，人民幣對美元匯率累計升值已經超過30%。
中央財經大學金融學院教授郭田勇向本報表示，央行可以在此時擴大人民幣匯率浮動幅度，就意味著人民幣這種單向升值或者單向貶值的一致性的預期在降低，與去年和前年相比，人民幣一致性的升值預期已經大大弱化，而當前中國經濟下滑，也並沒有大幅升值的條件。他並預計，今年人民幣升值約為2%到3%之間。
雙向波動 接軌國際貨幣
瑞穗證券亞洲首席經濟學家沈建光也認為，今年人民幣最多升值3%，並會出現升值和貶值的雙向波動。華僑銀行中國區資金業務部總經理張方田此前也表示，2012年全球政治經濟潛在風險因素很多，今年人民幣升值幅度不會、也沒有必要超過去年。
中國人民大學經濟學教授、博士生導師李義平表示，央行主動將匯率浮動空間擴大，說明中國經濟對人民幣升值的承受力已經加強。不過，他也提醒，這並不意味著人民幣立刻就會大幅升值，還需取決於對外貿易和貨幣供應情況。但可以肯定的是，這將有利於人民幣幣值更加均衡，更加接近市場化，與國際貨幣進一步接軌。
對於人民幣未來走勢，中國社科院金融重點實驗室主任劉煜輝認為，未來階段，人民幣貶值預期將會加強，同時也會導致央行強烈干預市場的壓力減輕，貨幣投放自主性也將增強。
香港文匯報訊 (記者 王曉雪 北京報道) 內地匯率改革再現「大動作」。央行14日發佈公告稱，將外匯市場人民幣兌美元匯率浮動幅度由原先的千分之五擴大至百分之一。這是自2005年7月匯改以來，央行第三次調整匯率，也是幅度最大的一次。學者表示，今年人民幣料升值3%，此次擴大人民幣匯率浮動幅度後，人民幣不會出現大幅升值。
公告顯示，銀行間即期外匯市場人民幣兌美元交易價浮動幅度擴大至百分之一，外匯指定銀行為客戶提供當日美元最高現匯賣出價與最低現匯買入價之差不得超過當日匯率中間價的幅度由1%擴大至2%。
業界看好 邁向自由浮動
對於此次擴大人民幣匯率浮動幅度，相關專家反應相當積極，財經專家魯政委就表示，現在是1%，未來就會是2%、2.5%，相信未來人民幣匯率將形成自由浮動。
而擴大匯率浮動幅度，無疑是加速人民幣匯率形成機制更快向市場化轉變的重要一步。中國銀行戰略發展部高級經濟師周景彤認為，人民幣國際化必然需要更為靈活的匯率機制，第一步就是增加匯率彈性，而將人民幣對美元的匯率波動區間由0.5%擴大到1%，符合「雙向波動」的政策方向。
六成網民 憧憬升值機會
在央行公告發佈之後，內地民間多數認為人民幣會加快升值速度。新浪財經一項關於人民幣匯率走勢的網調顯示，58%的網民表示看好人民幣升值。而騰訊網相關調查也顯示，約63%的網民認為人民幣會因波動區間擴大而大幅升值，而認為今年人民幣將升值5%以內的網民最多，佔接受調查人數的30%。
事實上，自05年7月匯改以來，人民幣匯率已有較大幅度升值。央行數據顯示，去年人民幣對美元升值5.11%，而從2005年人民幣匯率形成機制改革以來到去年底，人民幣對美元匯率累計升值已經超過30%。
中央財經大學金融學院教授郭田勇向本報表示，央行可以在此時擴大人民幣匯率浮動幅度，就意味著人民幣這種單向升值或者單向貶值的一致性的預期在降低，與去年和前年相比，人民幣一致性的升值預期已經大大弱化，而當前中國經濟下滑，也並沒有大幅升值的條件。他並預計，今年人民幣升值約為2%到3%之間。
雙向波動 接軌國際貨幣
瑞穗證券亞洲首席經濟學家沈建光也認為，今年人民幣最多升值3%，並會出現升值和貶值的雙向波動。華僑銀行中國區資金業務部總經理張方田此前也表示，2012年全球政治經濟潛在風險因素很多，今年人民幣升值幅度不會、也沒有必要超過去年。
中國人民大學經濟學教授、博士生導師李義平表示，央行主動將匯率浮動空間擴大，說明中國經濟對人民幣升值的承受力已經加強。不過，他也提醒，這並不意味著人民幣立刻就會大幅升值，還需取決於對外貿易和貨幣供應情況。但可以肯定的是，這將有利於人民幣幣值更加均衡，更加接近市場化，與國際貨幣進一步接軌。
對於人民幣未來走勢，中國社科院金融重點實驗室主任劉煜輝認為，未來階段，人民幣貶值預期將會加強，同時也會導致央行強烈干預市場的壓力減輕，貨幣投放自主性也將增強。
2012年4月14日 星期六
Caesar Bryan - Suspicious $1.5 Billion Gold Dump & Bank Runs
kingworldnews.com
With continued volatility in gold and silver, today King World News interviewed 25 year veteran Caesar Bryan. Gabelli & Company has over $31 billion under management and Caesar Bryan has managed the gold fund since its inception in 1994. Caesar told KWN the European banking system is stil on fire, and we are now seeing bank runs in both Spain and Italy. He also stated that today’s trading at the end of the day in gold was very “odd.” Here is what Caesar had to say about the situation: “We had been having a recovery in the price of gold recently, but then gold was taken down around 1:15 pm today. There was quite significant volume in the last 15 minutes, before the COMEX closed.”
Caesar Bryan continues:
“There were 10,000 contracts traded, which is something like $1.5 billion, and gold fell precipitously, from about $1,665 to about $1,650. This is very odd trading on a Friday afternoon when there was no other discernible movement in other markets.
This made for a disappointing end to the week, but the backdrop for gold is still very solid. However, for investors, it’s hard to ignore the day to day movements.
As you know, we have been talking about what is going on in Europe. The latest news is that tension remains high in places like Spain....
“Spanish yields today were about 5.94, which is up 21 basis points relative to German 10-Year bonds. That spread has now grown to about a 420 basis point spread.
If you go back and look at the history of that spread, since the introduction of the LTRO, where Spanish banks were very active participants, Spanish rates briefly came down to about 320 basis points. Now they are back up to 420. So, rates are back to levels seen just prior to the December introduction of the LTRO.
Also, the Spanish banking system borrowing from the ECB rose to about 370 billion euros in March, relative to about 170 billion euros in February. The bottom line here is the Spanish banks are very reliant on the ECB, and this is very dangerous.
According to Bloomberg, in March, 65 billion euros left the Spanish banking system for ports in Northern Europe. So, there is major capital flight out of both Spain and Italy, into places like Germany, the Netherlands and places like Luxembourg.
We are hearing from many European leaders that the crisis in Europe is over. I don’t believe that is the case. There’s going to have to be decisions made in Europe, and I think the obvious one is the central bank there is going to be much more active.
They are going to have to do another long-term LTRO, and maybe purchase Spanish bonds in an attempt to keep Spanish yields under control. This is a very serious situation in Europe, and there will be more monetary easing, as there is in Japan, here, the UK and, of course, Switzerland. All of this is positive for gold.
Here, in the US, we had a couple of dovish speeches from members of the Federal Reserve. But that doesn’t matter. It’s what the Fed does, not what officials of the Fed say. And the fact of the matter is that interest rates cannot be allowed to rise in this country because of the massive deficit.”
When asked about silver, Caesar stated, “I think silver is fine. It will tend to follow what’s going on in the gold market. Today it was hit, down 2.5% or 85 cents. We had a better day yesterday, but silver companies are very profitable at this price. Silver, like gold, is poised to move higher.”
With continued volatility in gold and silver, today King World News interviewed 25 year veteran Caesar Bryan. Gabelli & Company has over $31 billion under management and Caesar Bryan has managed the gold fund since its inception in 1994. Caesar told KWN the European banking system is stil on fire, and we are now seeing bank runs in both Spain and Italy. He also stated that today’s trading at the end of the day in gold was very “odd.” Here is what Caesar had to say about the situation: “We had been having a recovery in the price of gold recently, but then gold was taken down around 1:15 pm today. There was quite significant volume in the last 15 minutes, before the COMEX closed.”
Caesar Bryan continues:
“There were 10,000 contracts traded, which is something like $1.5 billion, and gold fell precipitously, from about $1,665 to about $1,650. This is very odd trading on a Friday afternoon when there was no other discernible movement in other markets.
This made for a disappointing end to the week, but the backdrop for gold is still very solid. However, for investors, it’s hard to ignore the day to day movements.
As you know, we have been talking about what is going on in Europe. The latest news is that tension remains high in places like Spain....
“Spanish yields today were about 5.94, which is up 21 basis points relative to German 10-Year bonds. That spread has now grown to about a 420 basis point spread.
If you go back and look at the history of that spread, since the introduction of the LTRO, where Spanish banks were very active participants, Spanish rates briefly came down to about 320 basis points. Now they are back up to 420. So, rates are back to levels seen just prior to the December introduction of the LTRO.
Also, the Spanish banking system borrowing from the ECB rose to about 370 billion euros in March, relative to about 170 billion euros in February. The bottom line here is the Spanish banks are very reliant on the ECB, and this is very dangerous.
According to Bloomberg, in March, 65 billion euros left the Spanish banking system for ports in Northern Europe. So, there is major capital flight out of both Spain and Italy, into places like Germany, the Netherlands and places like Luxembourg.
We are hearing from many European leaders that the crisis in Europe is over. I don’t believe that is the case. There’s going to have to be decisions made in Europe, and I think the obvious one is the central bank there is going to be much more active.
They are going to have to do another long-term LTRO, and maybe purchase Spanish bonds in an attempt to keep Spanish yields under control. This is a very serious situation in Europe, and there will be more monetary easing, as there is in Japan, here, the UK and, of course, Switzerland. All of this is positive for gold.
Here, in the US, we had a couple of dovish speeches from members of the Federal Reserve. But that doesn’t matter. It’s what the Fed does, not what officials of the Fed say. And the fact of the matter is that interest rates cannot be allowed to rise in this country because of the massive deficit.”
When asked about silver, Caesar stated, “I think silver is fine. It will tend to follow what’s going on in the gold market. Today it was hit, down 2.5% or 85 cents. We had a better day yesterday, but silver companies are very profitable at this price. Silver, like gold, is poised to move higher.”
2012年4月13日 星期五
CME says to cut silver, copper, palladium margins
又來減期銀按金, 睇來又想禁個銀價落去 !
af.reuters.com
SINGAPORE, April 13 (Reuters) - The CME Group will cut margins for silver, copper and palladium futures after close of business on April 16, it said in a statement late on Thursday.
The initial margin for COMEX 5000 silver futures <0#SI:> will be cut by 12.5 percent to $18,900 per contract, and the maintenance margin will be lowered to $14,000 from $16,000 per contract.
CME plans to decrease the margins on NYMEX palladium futures <0#PA:> by 9.5 percent. The new initial margin will be $5,225 per contract, and the maintenance margin $4,750.
COMEX copper futures <0#HG:> initial margins will be cut by 20 percent to $5,400 per contract, and the new maintenance margin will be $4,000. (Reporting by Rujun Shen; Editing by Sugita Katyal)
af.reuters.com
SINGAPORE, April 13 (Reuters) - The CME Group will cut margins for silver, copper and palladium futures after close of business on April 16, it said in a statement late on Thursday.
The initial margin for COMEX 5000 silver futures <0#SI:> will be cut by 12.5 percent to $18,900 per contract, and the maintenance margin will be lowered to $14,000 from $16,000 per contract.
CME plans to decrease the margins on NYMEX palladium futures <0#PA:> by 9.5 percent. The new initial margin will be $5,225 per contract, and the maintenance margin $4,750.
COMEX copper futures <0#HG:> initial margins will be cut by 20 percent to $5,400 per contract, and the new maintenance margin will be $4,000. (Reporting by Rujun Shen; Editing by Sugita Katyal)
2012年4月11日 星期三
2012年4月9日 星期一
台灣銀章和銀幣
2008年一盎司銀幣, 發行量 20,000枚, 背景台灣玉山, 前面彩色杜鵑花, 大洋賣 760蚊
母親節一盎司精造銀章, 發行量 10,000枚, 大洋賣 860蚊
上一次去大洋買咗枚藏羚羊在櫃台前俾錢時, 才見到身後有個飾櫃賣台灣幣, 而睇到幾靚的花朵銀幣, 價錢在700多800蚊沒算太貴, 所以星期五去, 買咗呢兩枚 !
上圖個枚送俾自己, 而下圖個枚諗住送俾本人媽媽 !
2012年4月8日 星期日
一套2011年澳洲兔年銀幣
2oz+1oz+1/2oz2011年3月在東洋買的 !
本人也有一套2009年牛和一套2012年龍, 而2010年虎就還欠半盎司的(希望isvzaen 快返貨啦), 2008年鼠就睇來儲不成一套啦, 因為2盎司鼠已升上天價 !
內地「香甜」豆漿 毒香精沖調
毒奶後又毒豆漿, 人生真可悲 !
文匯報
香港文匯報訊 據《揚子晚報》報道，許多忙碌的都市人早晨都會選擇街頭賣的現磨豆漿，但最近網上瘋傳的一個鮮豆漿製作公式卻讓人膽戰心驚：白開水+豆漿香精=鮮豆漿。記者採訪後發現，江蘇南京不少早餐店售賣的豆漿或是用香精調製，或是用豆漿加水和添加劑，以獲取更大的利潤。有業內人士表示，豆漿香精食用過多會引起頭痛、噁心等不適反應。
在一家食品添加劑店，女老闆聽說記者要做「做豆漿生意」便拿出一種1公斤重的桶裝豆漿香精，售價 40元。豆漿香精為白色粉末，打開包裝桶就能聞到一股濃重的香甜味。而在包裝顯著位置標註著「本品不可直接食用」。此外，記者了解到，豆漿香精、增稠劑、甜味素這三大豆漿「伴侶」，是目前南京市場上部分豆漿店常用的添加劑。此外，還有消泡劑可以防止加工豆漿時產生大量氣泡。
賣香精的女老闆更稱，10斤豆漿在豆漿香精的作用下能擴成60斤，產量變成6倍！「按這種方法做出來的豆漿聞起來香，但喝起來稀，所以可以買點增稠劑和甜味素，調和一下。豆漿可以賣得貴一點，利潤還是很可以的。」女老闆說。隨後記者暗訪中，有豆漿店老闆稱，賣豆漿的，大多都往裡面「添了東西」。有的大牌豆漿店，添加的香精和增稠劑都是企業內部專門配置的。
早餐店豆漿多數「加料」
對於豆漿香精的危害，一位業內人士表示，食用過多會有不良影響。「比如豆漿香精裡的香蘭素，是一種人工合成香精，大劑量使用可以導致頭痛、噁心、嘔吐、呼吸困難。」但記者了解到，目前有關部門並未對此進行相應監管。
文匯報
香港文匯報訊 據《揚子晚報》報道，許多忙碌的都市人早晨都會選擇街頭賣的現磨豆漿，但最近網上瘋傳的一個鮮豆漿製作公式卻讓人膽戰心驚：白開水+豆漿香精=鮮豆漿。記者採訪後發現，江蘇南京不少早餐店售賣的豆漿或是用香精調製，或是用豆漿加水和添加劑，以獲取更大的利潤。有業內人士表示，豆漿香精食用過多會引起頭痛、噁心等不適反應。
在一家食品添加劑店，女老闆聽說記者要做「做豆漿生意」便拿出一種1公斤重的桶裝豆漿香精，售價 40元。豆漿香精為白色粉末，打開包裝桶就能聞到一股濃重的香甜味。而在包裝顯著位置標註著「本品不可直接食用」。此外，記者了解到，豆漿香精、增稠劑、甜味素這三大豆漿「伴侶」，是目前南京市場上部分豆漿店常用的添加劑。此外，還有消泡劑可以防止加工豆漿時產生大量氣泡。
賣香精的女老闆更稱，10斤豆漿在豆漿香精的作用下能擴成60斤，產量變成6倍！「按這種方法做出來的豆漿聞起來香，但喝起來稀，所以可以買點增稠劑和甜味素，調和一下。豆漿可以賣得貴一點，利潤還是很可以的。」女老闆說。隨後記者暗訪中，有豆漿店老闆稱，賣豆漿的，大多都往裡面「添了東西」。有的大牌豆漿店，添加的香精和增稠劑都是企業內部專門配置的。
早餐店豆漿多數「加料」
對於豆漿香精的危害，一位業內人士表示，食用過多會有不良影響。「比如豆漿香精裡的香蘭素，是一種人工合成香精，大劑量使用可以導致頭痛、噁心、嘔吐、呼吸困難。」但記者了解到，目前有關部門並未對此進行相應監管。
2012年4月7日 星期六
9北極熊染怪病 毛脫落皮滲瘡
是中核幅射嗎 ?
hk.news.yahoo.com
（路透阿拉斯加州安克拉治6日電）美國地質調查所（USGS）今天表示，1種怪病導致阿拉斯加州外海數十隻海豹死亡，多隻海象感染，如今北極熊也出現症狀。
USGS發布聲明表示，近巴羅（Barrow）鎮的波弗特海（Beaufort Sea）區域，9隻北極熊有毛髮脫落、外皮滲瘡現象，症狀和之前患病的海豹與海象類似。
USGS阿拉斯加科學中心（Alaska Science Center）生物辦公室主任迪甘吉（Tony DeGange）表示，不過和之前感染的海豹與海象不同的是，染病北極熊看來還算健康，沒有任何1隻北極熊死亡。
迪甘吉表示，生物學家在北極海岸線從事例行研究所捕獲與採樣的33隻北極熊中，發現9隻感染。
迪甘吉說，過去也看過北極熊毛髮參差脫落，但這次過於普遍，加上海豹與海象同時出現這個問題，更添隱憂。
USGS正和研究其他動物的單位合作，調查北極熊和海豹海象的感染是否有關。
中央社（翻譯）
hk.news.yahoo.com
（路透阿拉斯加州安克拉治6日電）美國地質調查所（USGS）今天表示，1種怪病導致阿拉斯加州外海數十隻海豹死亡，多隻海象感染，如今北極熊也出現症狀。
USGS發布聲明表示，近巴羅（Barrow）鎮的波弗特海（Beaufort Sea）區域，9隻北極熊有毛髮脫落、外皮滲瘡現象，症狀和之前患病的海豹與海象類似。
USGS阿拉斯加科學中心（Alaska Science Center）生物辦公室主任迪甘吉（Tony DeGange）表示，不過和之前感染的海豹與海象不同的是，染病北極熊看來還算健康，沒有任何1隻北極熊死亡。
迪甘吉表示，生物學家在北極海岸線從事例行研究所捕獲與採樣的33隻北極熊中，發現9隻感染。
迪甘吉說，過去也看過北極熊毛髮參差脫落，但這次過於普遍，加上海豹與海象同時出現這個問題，更添隱憂。
USGS正和研究其他動物的單位合作，調查北極熊和海豹海象的感染是否有關。
中央社（翻譯）
Gainesville Coins give away
www.facebook.com/note.php?note_id=380410765314901
Congratulations to Raymond Chan! With an amazing guess of $31.81 on Wednesday at 6:08 PM, Raymond is the winner of our first Weekly Silver Spot On Giveaway Promotion. Join us next week for our Spot On Giveaway starting Monday. Winner will receive a Wildlife Series 2012 1 oz Canadian Silver Cougar.
Congratulations to Raymond Chan! With an amazing guess of $31.81 on Wednesday at 6:08 PM, Raymond is the winner of our first Weekly Silver Spot On Giveaway Promotion. Join us next week for our Spot On Giveaway starting Monday. Winner will receive a Wildlife Series 2012 1 oz Canadian Silver Cougar.
2012年4月5日 星期四
2012年4月4日 星期三
Jim Sinclair - Fed Minutes, Gold Manipulation & Fool’s Play
多謝沽家, 大家又可以買到平金銀幣啦 !
kingworldnews.com
On the heels of the release of the Fed minutes, today legendary trader and investor Jim Sinclair told King World News the release of the Fed minutes and subsequent market reaction in gold was orchestrated. Sinclair also said this is government manipulation against the tide of the bull market and it will be overrun. Here is what Sinclair had to say about what transpired today in the gold market: “The tactic is always the same. The gold banks enter the COMEX and offer more gold for sale at the market than has been mined in the last five years. Immediately, the locals (pit traders) try to run in front and hit any bids they happen to have on their book or are out there in order to get the price down.”
Jim Sinclair continues:
“Gold tanks down to the $1,640 level and now the brokers for the gold banks begin to enter the market to cover shorts to reduce the short position taken, and most likely to completely flatten it on the day. This has been going on from 1968 to 1980 and it’s also been going on from 2001 to today.
The net effect is absolutely nothing. The idea that there is a significant, improving economy directly in front of us is absolutely, completely and utterly a fabrication. The only reason car sales are firm is because they are giving away easy credit out there, so much so that even my dogs could buy a Cadillac Escalade....
“The markets are being run right in front of your eyes. Trading gold has never been easy and if you can’t stand the heat, you have to get out of the kitchen. You have to have courage and know that you are right. You have to look at today as a fool’s play.
This was completely orchestrated and enhanced by mainstream financial media. It was operated on the exchange and covered by the close. Shame on them. QE to infinity is as sure as death and taxes and all the way through this saga of QE to infinity there will be denial of its use.
You have had, right up to now, many and different modes of QE, including filling the holes created prior to the default by Greece. The whole thing is a play working its way out. You have to remember there is no way in the world that management of perspective economics will be able, even with coercion in the market, to turn around the business cycle which continues relentlessly to the downside.
I’ve been doing this for 50 years and it was almost obvious today when the standard list of gold shares got hit around noontime. The setup was known in advance and this was such a farce. It’s totally transparent. This was so technically and perfectly timed that anyone who thinks what took place is happenstance, is lacking vision. This was executed almost without camouflage.
This is pure manipulation, but the one thing the gold banks know is that you cannot manipulate a market, for any length of time, in the direction it does not want to go. You can only manipulate a market in the direction it wants to go.
So all of this fighting has been very profitable in the short-term and is a result of the government thinking in terms of a ‘weak gold policy.’ The ‘weak gold policy’ being to make sure that gold didn’t roar up when things were going wrong.
This is manipulation against the tide of the market and it’s going to fall back on its face because the institutions that will make the most money in this gold market are the gold banks and they will accomplish this by being long of gold. Any true professional knows what is going to happen, gold is going to go to Alf’s number of $4,500.”
kingworldnews.com
On the heels of the release of the Fed minutes, today legendary trader and investor Jim Sinclair told King World News the release of the Fed minutes and subsequent market reaction in gold was orchestrated. Sinclair also said this is government manipulation against the tide of the bull market and it will be overrun. Here is what Sinclair had to say about what transpired today in the gold market: “The tactic is always the same. The gold banks enter the COMEX and offer more gold for sale at the market than has been mined in the last five years. Immediately, the locals (pit traders) try to run in front and hit any bids they happen to have on their book or are out there in order to get the price down.”
Jim Sinclair continues:
“Gold tanks down to the $1,640 level and now the brokers for the gold banks begin to enter the market to cover shorts to reduce the short position taken, and most likely to completely flatten it on the day. This has been going on from 1968 to 1980 and it’s also been going on from 2001 to today.
The net effect is absolutely nothing. The idea that there is a significant, improving economy directly in front of us is absolutely, completely and utterly a fabrication. The only reason car sales are firm is because they are giving away easy credit out there, so much so that even my dogs could buy a Cadillac Escalade....
“The markets are being run right in front of your eyes. Trading gold has never been easy and if you can’t stand the heat, you have to get out of the kitchen. You have to have courage and know that you are right. You have to look at today as a fool’s play.
This was completely orchestrated and enhanced by mainstream financial media. It was operated on the exchange and covered by the close. Shame on them. QE to infinity is as sure as death and taxes and all the way through this saga of QE to infinity there will be denial of its use.
You have had, right up to now, many and different modes of QE, including filling the holes created prior to the default by Greece. The whole thing is a play working its way out. You have to remember there is no way in the world that management of perspective economics will be able, even with coercion in the market, to turn around the business cycle which continues relentlessly to the downside.
I’ve been doing this for 50 years and it was almost obvious today when the standard list of gold shares got hit around noontime. The setup was known in advance and this was such a farce. It’s totally transparent. This was so technically and perfectly timed that anyone who thinks what took place is happenstance, is lacking vision. This was executed almost without camouflage.
This is pure manipulation, but the one thing the gold banks know is that you cannot manipulate a market, for any length of time, in the direction it does not want to go. You can only manipulate a market in the direction it wants to go.
So all of this fighting has been very profitable in the short-term and is a result of the government thinking in terms of a ‘weak gold policy.’ The ‘weak gold policy’ being to make sure that gold didn’t roar up when things were going wrong.
This is manipulation against the tide of the market and it’s going to fall back on its face because the institutions that will make the most money in this gold market are the gold banks and they will accomplish this by being long of gold. Any true professional knows what is going to happen, gold is going to go to Alf’s number of $4,500.”
2012年4月3日 星期二
2012年4月2日 星期一
Gold, Silver Morning Update: Silver Explodes Through $33
silverdoctors.blogspot.com
Gold and silver have exploded higher in early COMEX trading this morning, with silver leading the way. Silver shot through resistance at $32.60 and has blasted nearly a dollar higher on the day to $33.19.
Really not much to say about this rally as it is classic action post options expiry. Time and again the cartel suppresses, caps, and raids silver (and gold) into options expiry, then allows the metals to run throughout the next week or two.
Also helping out this morning's rally is the first trading day for Q2, meaning we are likely seeing big inflows from hedge funds who had taken profits last week prior to the close of Q1.
Silver is likely to see resistance in the $33.30-$33.50 range today, and should it clear that, more significant resistance in the $34.50-$35 zone.
Gold has also broken higher, adding nearly $20 from $1665 to $1683. Look for gold to attempt to regain the $1700 level this week, a level that has seen gold consistently capped below over the past 2-3 weeks. At some point the bullion banks will have to retreat to higher ground, and set up camp again in the $1750-$1800 zone.
The $1800 level is the point of no return for the bullion banks, as should gold take out $1800 again to the upside, new all-time nominal highs are locked in. Look for this to happen later in the month should the Fed hint at QE3 at their April FOMC meeting, as is expected by PIMCO's Bill Gross.
Gold and silver have exploded higher in early COMEX trading this morning, with silver leading the way. Silver shot through resistance at $32.60 and has blasted nearly a dollar higher on the day to $33.19.
Really not much to say about this rally as it is classic action post options expiry. Time and again the cartel suppresses, caps, and raids silver (and gold) into options expiry, then allows the metals to run throughout the next week or two.
Also helping out this morning's rally is the first trading day for Q2, meaning we are likely seeing big inflows from hedge funds who had taken profits last week prior to the close of Q1.
Silver is likely to see resistance in the $33.30-$33.50 range today, and should it clear that, more significant resistance in the $34.50-$35 zone.
Gold has also broken higher, adding nearly $20 from $1665 to $1683. Look for gold to attempt to regain the $1700 level this week, a level that has seen gold consistently capped below over the past 2-3 weeks. At some point the bullion banks will have to retreat to higher ground, and set up camp again in the $1750-$1800 zone.
The $1800 level is the point of no return for the bullion banks, as should gold take out $1800 again to the upside, new all-time nominal highs are locked in. Look for this to happen later in the month should the Fed hint at QE3 at their April FOMC meeting, as is expected by PIMCO's Bill Gross.
施羅德料中國增持黃金
蘋果日報
【本報訊】自金融海嘯後，環球央行為分散投資風險及對抗美元貶值，積極增加黃金儲備，過去兩年各央行更成為淨買金者，去年佔黃金總需求約 10%。施羅德投資管理新興市場債券及商品產品經理 Christopher Wyke相信，中國等新興國家未來會繼續提高黃金儲備，央行佔黃金總需求比重將不斷上升。
民間揸實金興趣濃
世界黃金協會（ WGC）資料顯示，中國持有約 1000噸黃金，相當於其總儲備約 1.5%，遠低於歐美等發達國家的 70%至 80%，意味中國有增持黃金的空間。該協會投資部門總經理 Marcus Grubb亦證實，去年內地黃金進口數量與當局估算出的居民黃金消耗量存在很大差異，主因人民銀行在第四季大舉買金。
中國黃金協會稱，世界經濟復蘇遲緩及歐債危機不斷升溫，更加凸顯黃金對抗金融風險及保障資產安全的作用，故不僅各國政府紛紛加大黃金儲備的力度，民間對持有實物黃金的興趣亦趨濃厚。
參考當局去年數據，中國民間黃金消耗量 761.05噸，按年增 33.2%，無論是金飾或金條均出現大幅增長，當中投資金條數量大增 50.7%至 213.85噸，反映中國人對黃金的熱切追求。
供過於求可能性低
金價不斷上漲，金飾業首當其衝，去年印度對金飾的需求亦罕有減少，惟 Wyke認為，金價上升對金飾業的衝擊僅屬短暫，去年印度減少買金，主因印度盧比兌美元貶值，金飾漲價反屬次要，他相信，隨着盧比及人民幣升值，中印兩國對金飾的需求有增無減。
對於有投資者擔心金價連年上漲，投資金礦的人將越來越多，未來數年黃金恐供過於求， Wyke直言，這種情況發生的可能性相當低，截至 2010年的十年間，開採金礦成本持續上揚，打擊開採意欲，加上來自回收黃金的供應不斷減少，以致全球黃金產能僅升 2%。
【本報訊】自金融海嘯後，環球央行為分散投資風險及對抗美元貶值，積極增加黃金儲備，過去兩年各央行更成為淨買金者，去年佔黃金總需求約 10%。施羅德投資管理新興市場債券及商品產品經理 Christopher Wyke相信，中國等新興國家未來會繼續提高黃金儲備，央行佔黃金總需求比重將不斷上升。
民間揸實金興趣濃
世界黃金協會（ WGC）資料顯示，中國持有約 1000噸黃金，相當於其總儲備約 1.5%，遠低於歐美等發達國家的 70%至 80%，意味中國有增持黃金的空間。該協會投資部門總經理 Marcus Grubb亦證實，去年內地黃金進口數量與當局估算出的居民黃金消耗量存在很大差異，主因人民銀行在第四季大舉買金。
中國黃金協會稱，世界經濟復蘇遲緩及歐債危機不斷升溫，更加凸顯黃金對抗金融風險及保障資產安全的作用，故不僅各國政府紛紛加大黃金儲備的力度，民間對持有實物黃金的興趣亦趨濃厚。
參考當局去年數據，中國民間黃金消耗量 761.05噸，按年增 33.2%，無論是金飾或金條均出現大幅增長，當中投資金條數量大增 50.7%至 213.85噸，反映中國人對黃金的熱切追求。
供過於求可能性低
金價不斷上漲，金飾業首當其衝，去年印度對金飾的需求亦罕有減少，惟 Wyke認為，金價上升對金飾業的衝擊僅屬短暫，去年印度減少買金，主因印度盧比兌美元貶值，金飾漲價反屬次要，他相信，隨着盧比及人民幣升值，中印兩國對金飾的需求有增無減。
對於有投資者擔心金價連年上漲，投資金礦的人將越來越多，未來數年黃金恐供過於求， Wyke直言，這種情況發生的可能性相當低，截至 2010年的十年間，開採金礦成本持續上揚，打擊開採意欲，加上來自回收黃金的供應不斷減少，以致全球黃金產能僅升 2%。
2012年4月1日 星期日
芭蕾舞銀幣
一套五幣, 發行量 2500套 www.perthmint.com.au
Proof Quality 99.9% Pure Silver
介紹完兩套男仔銀幣後, 須介紹呢套舊年買的女仔銀幣, 雖然貴(約720蚊一枚), 不過好靚 !
乘還有貨而澳元又跌咗, 手快有手慢無 !
李小加，民企已死，你玩夠未？
都說股市好多人為因素, 你玩股定股玩你 ? 每一個浪都出一樣的結果, 無數散戶輸錢 !
蘋果日報
民企股越爆越大鑊，股榮知道企業有心造假，避也避不過，但令人惱火的，是作為負責維持秩序的港交所（ 388），對事件不聞不問。 CEO李小加一個多星期前指，「（博士蛙， 1698）是個別的特殊情況，並非制度上出現系統性問題，不會因為個別公司而修改資料披露的守則，但若果發現機制上存在問題，才會作出改善。」
博士蛙爆完，輪到大慶乳業（ 1007），然後民企股一隻接住一隻停牌，又或者跌到阿媽都唔記得。請問李小加，這是否仍然是個別情況？是否要等到民企股全部停晒牌，你先肯出手？
綜合過去半個月幾隻民企股出事，我發覺原來一直自誇與全球股市接軌，跟足國際監管模式的港交所，其實虛有其表。只是單單停牌機制，已經令萬千股民中伏。單睇博士蛙上月 15號開市前發通告，指核數師劈炮而毋須停賽，已經荒謬絕倫，更離譜係，午後到 12點半，先再補充資料話四億數有問題，中午又毋須停牌，等午後開市 38分鐘先落閘。
一個上午加午後 38分鐘，基金走得到，散仔以為執到寶，點知一個個變晒儍仔。我相信當日低撈博士蛙的散仔都係衰貪心，但時到如今，大部份恐怕輸得唔甘心。點解？同屬德勤核數的大慶，上月 22號開市前指核數師跳船，開市前已宣佈停牌。李小加，請你解釋點解同樣係核數師辭任，一個要停牌，另一個毋須停，究竟你搞邊科？
股份停牌無劃一準則
另一個例子仲激氣，歲寶（ 312）上月 21號話核數師須更多時間做嘢，放榜日期延至上周五（ 30日），殊不知 29號中午話停牌就停牌，聲稱有敏感消息， 30號晚反口指出唔到業績。同樣 30號放榜的宇陽（ 117）， 29號喪插兩成後、未有提及周五不能放榜即停牌，反觀華保（ 810）較早前亦指核數師須更多時間審核，未能 3月底前放榜，毋須停牌。
問過核數師，除非是公司未能提供資料，否則一定能在死線前一星期，大致完成核數工作，因此部份公司如寶姿（ 589）、澳優（ 1717）臨放榜前一日先話核數師要更多時間，完全難以令人信服。更可怕是貨源歸邊的喜尚（ 8179），五日跌八成，居然唔知原因毋須停牌。
民企冰封三尺，非一日之寒。港股加時無啖好食，我可以忍；偏幫烏輪輸打贏要，最多唔買輪唔買動物，但現時連遊戲規則都左搖右擺，停牌機制名存實亡，股榮真的忍受不了。李小加，今日係愚人節，但以上的說話卻很認真，我相信普羅投資者要的，是公平的制度，並非甚麼新股集資王、衍生工具王等，請認真好好由基本步出發。
股榮
蘋果日報
民企股越爆越大鑊，股榮知道企業有心造假，避也避不過，但令人惱火的，是作為負責維持秩序的港交所（ 388），對事件不聞不問。 CEO李小加一個多星期前指，「（博士蛙， 1698）是個別的特殊情況，並非制度上出現系統性問題，不會因為個別公司而修改資料披露的守則，但若果發現機制上存在問題，才會作出改善。」
博士蛙爆完，輪到大慶乳業（ 1007），然後民企股一隻接住一隻停牌，又或者跌到阿媽都唔記得。請問李小加，這是否仍然是個別情況？是否要等到民企股全部停晒牌，你先肯出手？
綜合過去半個月幾隻民企股出事，我發覺原來一直自誇與全球股市接軌，跟足國際監管模式的港交所，其實虛有其表。只是單單停牌機制，已經令萬千股民中伏。單睇博士蛙上月 15號開市前發通告，指核數師劈炮而毋須停賽，已經荒謬絕倫，更離譜係，午後到 12點半，先再補充資料話四億數有問題，中午又毋須停牌，等午後開市 38分鐘先落閘。
一個上午加午後 38分鐘，基金走得到，散仔以為執到寶，點知一個個變晒儍仔。我相信當日低撈博士蛙的散仔都係衰貪心，但時到如今，大部份恐怕輸得唔甘心。點解？同屬德勤核數的大慶，上月 22號開市前指核數師跳船，開市前已宣佈停牌。李小加，請你解釋點解同樣係核數師辭任，一個要停牌，另一個毋須停，究竟你搞邊科？
股份停牌無劃一準則
另一個例子仲激氣，歲寶（ 312）上月 21號話核數師須更多時間做嘢，放榜日期延至上周五（ 30日），殊不知 29號中午話停牌就停牌，聲稱有敏感消息， 30號晚反口指出唔到業績。同樣 30號放榜的宇陽（ 117）， 29號喪插兩成後、未有提及周五不能放榜即停牌，反觀華保（ 810）較早前亦指核數師須更多時間審核，未能 3月底前放榜，毋須停牌。
問過核數師，除非是公司未能提供資料，否則一定能在死線前一星期，大致完成核數工作，因此部份公司如寶姿（ 589）、澳優（ 1717）臨放榜前一日先話核數師要更多時間，完全難以令人信服。更可怕是貨源歸邊的喜尚（ 8179），五日跌八成，居然唔知原因毋須停牌。
民企冰封三尺，非一日之寒。港股加時無啖好食，我可以忍；偏幫烏輪輸打贏要，最多唔買輪唔買動物，但現時連遊戲規則都左搖右擺，停牌機制名存實亡，股榮真的忍受不了。李小加，今日係愚人節，但以上的說話卻很認真，我相信普羅投資者要的，是公平的制度，並非甚麼新股集資王、衍生工具王等，請認真好好由基本步出發。
股榮
Cartel Wearing Out All But the Most Diehard Silver Investors
呢篇文說, 白銀走勢會跟黃金, 而買完實銀就要坐穩唔好俾價格波動震出去 !
依家是整固期, 所以大家唔理銀價波動, 而去尋靚靚銀幣也是一個好策略; 反而手持銀條的人就會坐到發呆 !
silverdoctors.blogspot.com
When asked about silver’s current supply and demand fundamentals, David replied:
Industrial demand for silver has been increasing rather significantly over the last decade or so. If you go back a decade or so the total demand on the industrial side was about 38% of the market, and if you look at more recent studies, it’s grown to about 54% of the market.
During that 10 year time-frame the silver production from mining has gone up significantly, and that’s primarily been driven by the commodities boom overall, and that’s primarily been driven by China. That means that the demand side on industrial uses has increased.
As far as the investment demand goes, on the supply side, it’s increased from the year 2000 to present. Investment demand has been steadily increasing over time. If you look at the supply/demand from 1990 to 2006 we were in a structural deficit. That was about 100 million ounces a year for 15 years, so roughly 1.5 billion ounces of silver were depleted from 1990 to 2006.
At that time, the production curve crossed over the demand side (counting recycling), so there’s now actually more supply than there is demand, and that’s based on studies from the Silver Institute and the CPM Group.
So the low point in the total supply of silver was roughly in 2006, and the supply at that point was probably only 500 million ounces, and today we’ve probably got double that at least (and this is in only commercial bar form that I’m talking about now, I’m talking about 1,000 ounce bars- in that form only). We were at 500 million ounces in 2006, today we’re probably at a billion ounces.
The investment demand has increased steadily from that point- in April of 2006 the SLV was started, the first major ETF for silver. At inception it held 130 million ounces at the offset, now we’re about triple that at 300 million ounces in the SLV- purportedly the largest holder of silver in industrial form (in 1,000 ounce bars).
The demand in all the ETFs, holding companies, anything that holds silver in 1,000 ounce bars as an investment, has gone roughly from that point in April 2006 till now to about 800 million ounces that we can see in the public domain.
So the supply side has increased, but the demand side has increased. The demand side for the retail portion of the market, which is best looked at in the silver eagles (or silver liberties as they’re actually named) has been increasing substantially over the past few years.
When you look at the inception of the program in 1986 through about 3 years ago the average amount of off-take was about 10 million ounces. Then a few years back it doubled to 20 million ounces, then last year it was up to 40 million ounces.
Now we are seeing it probably wane off a bit. These markets are volatile as we all know, and I think right now we’re in a flat period, a consolidation period, and I believe that a lot of people that are really savvy about the silver and gold story are in. In other words, they bought their silver over the last few years, at some point from the beginning of the bull market till now. They’re in the market ,and they really aren’t in a position to add to their holdings, or if they are, they’re waiting for a pull-back, and there aren’t a lot of new buyers in the market right now on the retail side.
On the professional side, the money managers, professional managers, hedge fund types, they’re slowly coming back to the market. What’s interesting is that they’re coming into the market primarily on the physical side of the market- truly the physical side of the market- buying monster boxes or commercial bars for investment.
Bottom line, I think we still have a consolidation period ahead of us, I think we have several months, probably until September-October of this year before really we break through this consolidation level and get silver up to the $40 level or so. I could be wrong obviously, but I think that a lot of the people that are in the silver market and the gold market- and they pretty much track together, there’s an 84% correlation between the two metals, so the argument that silver is a lot different than gold is erroneous. It isn’t exactly like gold, but it’s very, very close.
Regardless, I think you’re going to see more consolidation and more people that are in the scare you out or the wear you out mode.
The scare you out mode is when you get these huge sell-offs like we saw on the 29th of February in the silver market. That scares a lot of people, and a lot of people that are waiting on the sidelines for a pull-back see that pull-back, and although a week before told themselves that if they ever saw a pull-back like that they’d jump in, they don’t. They get scared and they don’t get into the market.
Or, they get worn out. They’ve been holding silver let’s say above the $30 level- let’s say they’re holding it around $35, which is approximately where we are now, and they’ve watched it run to $48 and they’ve watched it come down to $26, and they’ve watched it come back and consolidate around the $30-$35 level, and they’re worn out! They’re saying silver isn’t as good a thing as I thought it was, and I’ve been holding it now for month after month after month and it doesn’t seem to be going anywhere, and I’ve got this other opportunity, so they sell their silver and they’re out of the market.
They’re probably correct for a few more months, but then of course once it starts to go back up and hits the $35, $40, $45, $50 level, and they wish they would have held. That’s how markets work. That’s the psychology behind it.
依家是整固期, 所以大家唔理銀價波動, 而去尋靚靚銀幣也是一個好策略; 反而手持銀條的人就會坐到發呆 !
silverdoctors.blogspot.com
When asked about silver’s current supply and demand fundamentals, David replied:
Industrial demand for silver has been increasing rather significantly over the last decade or so. If you go back a decade or so the total demand on the industrial side was about 38% of the market, and if you look at more recent studies, it’s grown to about 54% of the market.
During that 10 year time-frame the silver production from mining has gone up significantly, and that’s primarily been driven by the commodities boom overall, and that’s primarily been driven by China. That means that the demand side on industrial uses has increased.
As far as the investment demand goes, on the supply side, it’s increased from the year 2000 to present. Investment demand has been steadily increasing over time. If you look at the supply/demand from 1990 to 2006 we were in a structural deficit. That was about 100 million ounces a year for 15 years, so roughly 1.5 billion ounces of silver were depleted from 1990 to 2006.
At that time, the production curve crossed over the demand side (counting recycling), so there’s now actually more supply than there is demand, and that’s based on studies from the Silver Institute and the CPM Group.
So the low point in the total supply of silver was roughly in 2006, and the supply at that point was probably only 500 million ounces, and today we’ve probably got double that at least (and this is in only commercial bar form that I’m talking about now, I’m talking about 1,000 ounce bars- in that form only). We were at 500 million ounces in 2006, today we’re probably at a billion ounces.
The investment demand has increased steadily from that point- in April of 2006 the SLV was started, the first major ETF for silver. At inception it held 130 million ounces at the offset, now we’re about triple that at 300 million ounces in the SLV- purportedly the largest holder of silver in industrial form (in 1,000 ounce bars).
The demand in all the ETFs, holding companies, anything that holds silver in 1,000 ounce bars as an investment, has gone roughly from that point in April 2006 till now to about 800 million ounces that we can see in the public domain.
So the supply side has increased, but the demand side has increased. The demand side for the retail portion of the market, which is best looked at in the silver eagles (or silver liberties as they’re actually named) has been increasing substantially over the past few years.
When you look at the inception of the program in 1986 through about 3 years ago the average amount of off-take was about 10 million ounces. Then a few years back it doubled to 20 million ounces, then last year it was up to 40 million ounces.
Now we are seeing it probably wane off a bit. These markets are volatile as we all know, and I think right now we’re in a flat period, a consolidation period, and I believe that a lot of people that are really savvy about the silver and gold story are in. In other words, they bought their silver over the last few years, at some point from the beginning of the bull market till now. They’re in the market ,and they really aren’t in a position to add to their holdings, or if they are, they’re waiting for a pull-back, and there aren’t a lot of new buyers in the market right now on the retail side.
On the professional side, the money managers, professional managers, hedge fund types, they’re slowly coming back to the market. What’s interesting is that they’re coming into the market primarily on the physical side of the market- truly the physical side of the market- buying monster boxes or commercial bars for investment.
Bottom line, I think we still have a consolidation period ahead of us, I think we have several months, probably until September-October of this year before really we break through this consolidation level and get silver up to the $40 level or so. I could be wrong obviously, but I think that a lot of the people that are in the silver market and the gold market- and they pretty much track together, there’s an 84% correlation between the two metals, so the argument that silver is a lot different than gold is erroneous. It isn’t exactly like gold, but it’s very, very close.
Regardless, I think you’re going to see more consolidation and more people that are in the scare you out or the wear you out mode.
The scare you out mode is when you get these huge sell-offs like we saw on the 29th of February in the silver market. That scares a lot of people, and a lot of people that are waiting on the sidelines for a pull-back see that pull-back, and although a week before told themselves that if they ever saw a pull-back like that they’d jump in, they don’t. They get scared and they don’t get into the market.
Or, they get worn out. They’ve been holding silver let’s say above the $30 level- let’s say they’re holding it around $35, which is approximately where we are now, and they’ve watched it run to $48 and they’ve watched it come down to $26, and they’ve watched it come back and consolidate around the $30-$35 level, and they’re worn out! They’re saying silver isn’t as good a thing as I thought it was, and I’ve been holding it now for month after month after month and it doesn’t seem to be going anywhere, and I’ve got this other opportunity, so they sell their silver and they’re out of the market.
They’re probably correct for a few more months, but then of course once it starts to go back up and hits the $35, $40, $45, $50 level, and they wish they would have held. That’s how markets work. That’s the psychology behind it.