The Outlook For Gold

就連 Martin Amstrong 都要睇支持和阻力位, 金價低過 1522 就還會跌, 高過 1684 就會升 !

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Gold fell rather nicely into our target week bottoming at 1532.30 testing the Weekly Bearish Reversal at 1522.00. As was warned, the weekly closing below our 1599 Weekly Bearish Reversal for the week of May 7. This indicates that ensured that decline. Only a weekly closing now below this Weekly Bearish Reversal at 1522 will signal a drop to 1407 and a weekly closing beneath that level would point the to a retest of last year’s low at 1310.5. As I have been warning, this is the 13 year. The best possible outcome was for a low this year rather than a high.

It is still possible that a May low appears possible with a rally into July and a panic to the downside in Aug/Sept. However, the absence of a Directional Change in this period also warns that we could simply continue lower into July and that would tend to make the Aug/Sept time period pointing up rather than down. So caution is still NECESSARY!!!! Keep in mind that cycle targets are TURNING POINTS rather than specific events.
Normally, each target produces the opposite effect of the previous. On occasion, two such targets can produce the same event during strong moves.

Gold is still pointing to high volatility in August and a major turning point in September, which should be the most important this year. The monthly Bearish Reversal still lies at 1465.7 and a monthly closing beneath that level could send this market down to 1158.9 at the most extreme. Ideally, we should just fade last year’s low at 1310. With gold making a pause in the uptrend at this time, we are extending the cycle long-term point to the record highs after 2015.75. The Monthly Bullish Reversal stands at 1924.30 and unless that is exceeded on a monthly closing basis, then there is no hope of avoiding the retest of support.

The Weekly Bearish Reversal lies at 1522.7 followed by 1405.8. Clearly, a weekly closing below last year’s low of 1310 will point to support at 1234.5 and 1199.8 followed by 1158.9. It appears that the next important weekly turning point will be the week of June 11th/June 18th. If the May low holds, then a rally into June is possible. That would imply we should see the primary target thereafter fall the week of September 3rd. We have initial closing resistance at 1597. Our Weekly Bullish Reversals stand at 1684, followed by 1742.

On the Daily level we see rising volatility into the end of this week 05/24-25. Volatility will rise again on May 29th. Keys days appears to be 05/23, 05/25, and 05/30 this month. The Daily Bullish Reversal stands at 1609.80. The key Daily Bearish Reversal lies at 1526.9. Minor Daily Bearish Reversal is to be found at 1544.5 and only closing back beneath this would signal a resumption of the decline.