“Unwavering” Housing Bull “Grateful” for Wall Street Buyers

其實美國下一代人同香港的差不多, 因為佢地讀完大學難搵工又難儲錢, 所以唔會買樓買車, 而美國似是轉好的房屋數據, 有三份之一是來之投資集團買物業收租 ! 因為好多人失業又邊有錢買物業?

文匯報

美國樓市持續回暖，令市場看好經濟前景，但在鳳凰城及拉斯維加斯等地區，強勁樓價升勢背後其實是投資大行在推波助瀾，在上次樓市崩潰後趁低吸納，大量買入房產，令樓價升幅拋離其他地區。小市民慨嘆樓價被大行搶高，令置業艱難，亦有人警告地區樓市可能衍生泡沫，一旦大行減持物業，樓價恐暴跌。

全球最大私募基金之一百仕通，在美國9個州購入近2.6萬間房產；洛杉磯投資公司Colony Capital每月耗資2.5億美元(約19.4億港元)買樓，現時手持1萬個物業。大部分投行均出租手頭物業，以便隨時出售套利。 

一筆過付現金 按息升另一隱憂 

　即使樓價在2008年泡沫爆破後大跌，一般買家還是無力購買，結果這些物業許多均被投行吸納。全美4月份共有68%上述物業由投資機構買入，只有19%由首次置業人士買入。雖然這情況有利部分損失慘重的地區復甦，但不少人擔心樓價升溫太快，會再次衍生泡沫。

　以加州里弗賽德縣為例，去年樓價大升15%。58歲退休海軍馬丁去年曾向15個物業出價，但大部分均被願意一次過支付現金的投資機構捷足先登。他擔心一旦按揭利率回升，他的置業夢將更難實現。

　評級機構惠譽上周四警告，在美國部分樓市回暖速度最快的地區，單戶住宅價格升幅漸漸超越當地經濟增速，假如大型投資者沽貨，樓價恐會「停滯甚至逆轉」。 

鳳凰城見好收 轉攻加州佛州 

　雖然樓價近期回升，但仍未達2008年金融海嘯前價位，目前里弗賽德縣樓價仍較2006年高位低逾4成。此外，大型投資者現時普遍負債較少，即使樓市漸漸出現過熱跡象，引發如2008年泡沫爆破般嚴重後果的風險亦較低。

　部分華爾街大行已察覺問題，開始從升溫最快的地區樓市撤離，如鳳凰城，3月份成交量已從去年夏季的36%降至25%。數據亦顯示，投資者開始轉攻加州及佛羅里達州等地區。 　

■《紐約時報》

finance.yahoo.com

Recent reports on U.S. housing show a market enjoying a robust recovery, one strong enough to generate fears of another bubble. On the flip side, a conventional critique is the housing market is being driven largely by institutional investors vs. private buyers, as cited here yesterday by The Guardian’s Heidi Moore and today in NYT’s Dealbook.

In other words, the recovery is illusory and another consequence of the Fed's easy money policies, which favor Wall Street speculators vs. Main Street America.

Related: Homeowners Got ‘Screwed’ Once Before, Now It’s Happening Again: Barofsky

Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, addresses both concerns in the accompanying video.
To the idea the housing market is being driven largely by institutional investors vs. private buyers, the economist has a counterintuitive response: “I’m hasty to be dismissive of the investors,” Shepherdson says. “They got the market going and I’m grateful for them.”

Similarly, he turns worries that about one-third of home sales are cash purchases on its head: “If one-third [of buyers] are investors, that means they’re outnumbered 2-to-1 by private buyers,” he says. “Given how high the unemployment rate is, that’s not so bad [and] I would guess as we get into next year the proportion of investors will decline…creating more space for private buyers.”

That’s assuming they have a job and can get a loan, of course.

Shepherdson also notes that other countries with long-term, healthy housing markets have typically had much higher rates of investor activity vs. the U.S. in recent years. “So you could argue this is a normalization of U.S. market by international standards,” he says.
Whether Americans want a housing market with an international flair is another story, but most would surely agree another bubble is best avoided at all costs.
“The last thing the U.S. needs is another crazy house price boom,” says Shepherdson.
Fortunately, that’s unlikely to occur, he says, predicting the recent uptick in prices will bring on more supply of homes previously underwater or merely kept off the market until the sales environment improved.
That time appears to have arrived: The most recent S&P/Case-Shiller house-price index, released last week, was up 10.9% from a year earlier and had its the largest monthly gain since April 2006. Existing-home sales have been higher than year-ago levels for 22 straight months and recently reached the highest monthly level since government home-buyer tax incentives expired in November 2009.

Related: Largest Gains for Home Prices in 7 Years, Forget Bubble Talk for Now

“The whole dynamic [for housing] has changed in a way that’s very positive,” Shepherson says. A combination of tight inventories and restraint by homebuilders has led to solid price appreciation, which in turn is pulling in new buyers. “Nobody wants to borrow money to buy a depreciating asset but everybody wants to borrow money to buy an appreciating asset,” he says.
Shepherson predicts the pace of price appreciation will slow into the 4% to 6% range in the second half of 2013 vs. 8%-10% in recent months, noting a slight uptick in inventory of existing homes for sale as previously reticent (or underwater) sellers put their homes on the market.
“I welcome that supply,” says Shepherdson. “I’m just happy it hasn’t happened so far – that wall of supply in a short period of time could’ve killed the whole [recovery] overnight.”

And, for the record, many of the same people currently decrying the housing recovery as "investor only" or "fake" are the same folks who predicted a "shadow inventory" of homes. If true, these properties would've come on the market long ago and snuffed out any rebound, which is very real judging by the numbers.