Crude Bullish or Bearish?

買油股的人要睇位啦 !

www.armstrongeconomics.com

We had THREE Yearly Bearish Reversals in Crude and the first was $41, the next $35 and $32 but then there was also $25. We achieved the first one, but not $35. This still warns of lower lows here in 2016, but it does not imply $12. Typically, when you are trading BELOW a Yearly Bearish like $35 and you rally to closing above it, it is NOT a buy signal since we are still electing the $41, but it is warning that a complete collapse is not likely.

This is most likely reflecting what is coming after 2017. This in part is also intermingled with the Sling Shot v the Phase Transition. The former would EXTEND the cycle and suggest that 2017-2020 will be the chaotic period and a Phase Transition would imply a conclusion by 2017. That is the difference. Neither one is yet confirmed as we have been stating. Therefore, it is curious that this seems to be lining up with Crude.

We have technical support during 2016 in Crude at the $30.75 level. Our model should resistance at $40 and support at $25. Therefore, it does not appear that we would see crude collapse to the $10-$15 level some have been calling for. This is most likely why crude rallied to close above the $35 number. It merely avoided a devastating sell signal where at least $25 would have been guaranteed.