www.armstrongeconomics.com
Back on November 13th, 2015, we reported: “The
Dow is pulling back on schedule. We do not see a breakout to the
upside. This should tread water for a bit, waiting for everything to
align. A closing today below 17785 will signal that this is not ready to
breakout and a retest of support is likely. Key support lies down at
16500.” We have breached that support level now which brings us to focus on 15900-16100 area.
Here is the Weekly Array we published back then. Note that this past
week of January 4th, was showing as a Panic Cycle even back in November
2015. Next week was highlighted as the turning point and we had a
Directional Change coming into play next week as well.
The initial support at 16500 has given way and we Elected a Weekly
Bearish Reversal today. That report was written just after the November
high was made. We elected the first Weekly Bearish at that time which
signaled a test of the next would unfold. Now we are focusing on the
monthly support and if that gives way, then we see the Sling Shot move is most likely unfolding.
A Sling Shot differs from a Phase Transition whereas the former you go down FIRST
and then swing around and make new highs. This was accomplished from
both the 2007 top as well as the 1998 high no less 1987. A Phase Transition is simply an explosion to the upside which typically lasts at most 2 years or about 13 months.
Keep in mind that the MAJORITY must be wrong – ALWAYS.
That is the very fuel which drives the markets. The best we have are
the Reversals and the Arrays. Opinion fills the air. But opinion is not a
forecast. The market will tell us what we face now. Next week is likely
to see a lower low for it is the timing target and the Directional
Change.
The November high implies a decline for the First Quarter. Everything will hinge now on the Monthly Bearish Reversals. The Global Market Watch finished the year also warning that we had a temporary high. The year-end closing was LOWER and it even closed below the OPEN of 2015. These were warning signs that we would retest support BEFORE making any new highs.
我唔會完全跟,因為馬田都係見跌就給你可能出現的跌幅的意見,反之亦然。看準大方向後,咩位入都看自己判斷。
回覆刪除我就估個市向下行多D, 或有少少反彈, 只為拉高個RSI, 之後跌到你唔信, 要年尾11月後才會向上行 !
回覆刪除