on.cc東網專訊
【on.cc東網專訊】
為應對核電站老化問題及恐襲風險，比利時日前宣布，計劃向1100萬名國民分發碘片。鄰國荷蘭昨日亦稱，已訂購1500萬塊碘片派給住在核電站附近的民眾，以防萬一發生核事故，可用以減低輻射在甲狀腺的累積。
比利時核電站早前接連出現洩漏和裂縫等事故；自巴黎及布魯塞爾恐襲發生後，有核電站人員疑與恐怖分子有關，亦引起保安方面的憂慮。德國上周要求比利時關閉兩
個已運作40年的反應堆，直至解決保安問題後才重開，惟比利時拒絕，指核電站符合最嚴格安全要求。比利時之後宣布，計劃向1100萬名國民分發碘片，以防
出現核事故，並將於明年落實詳情。
荷蘭國內雖然只有一個核電站，但鄰國德國及比利時卻有3個核電站在其邊境，故衞生部門亦於昨日宣布，已訂購1500萬塊碘片，屆時會先派給方圓100公里內的18歲以下人士及孕婦，餘下的再分給其他有可能受影響的人，包括遊客及工人。衞生部門稱，會跟隨比利時分派方法，在藥房或健康中心領取。
2016年4月30日 星期六
Freddie Mac may need another taxpayer bailout next week
美國的債務計時炸彈 !
www.marketwatch.comBy AndreaRiquier
Freddie Mac FMCC, -1.21% is expected to report a loss when it announces first quarter earnings before the bell on Tuesday. That’s bad news for any public company, but especially critical for the mortgage provider because of its tangled history with the federal government.
Freddie and its counterpart, Fannie Mae FNMA, -0.58% were put into conservatorship in 2008 as the mortgage meltdown ensnared the financial system. They have lingered as wards of the state ever since. The Treasury department modified the deal in 2012, requiring Fannie and Freddie to send all quarterly profits to the government — and shrink their reserves to zero by 2018.
As Mel Watt, the chairman of Fannie and Freddie’s regulator, put it in a speech in February, Fannie and Freddie are quickly approaching the point where they won’t be able to weather quarterly losses without going back to the Treasury for taxpayer dollars.
There are many reasons Freddie and Fannie could lose money in any given quarter, Watt noted, including the fact that the enterprises now stand to make less income on the portfolios they’re required to shrink. What many analysts are watching for this time, though, is the use of interest rate derivatives.
Freddie has used such instruments to hedge against big swings in interest rates, and their value can fluctuate unpredictably. (Fannie relies more on the issuance of longer-term debt to guard against short-term interest rate swings.)
Derivatives have gone bad for Freddie before. In the third quarter of last year, it reported a $475 million loss, the first negative quarter in four years, when rates plunged. Freddie did not need to tap Treasury for more funds, but neither did it remit money to the government.
Noted bank analyst Richard Bove speculated about the possibility of a first quarter loss in a recent note. “It is impossible for an outsider to predict what this will do to Freddie Mac earnings but it is not unrealistic to assume a loss of $2.0 billion plus in derivatives (it could be as high as $4.0 billion or more). At the $2.0 billion plus level, Freddie Mac’s pretax earnings would be negative $749 million,” Bove, vice president of equity research at Rafferty Capital Markets, wrote.
Spokeswomen for Freddie and its regulator, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, declined to comment.
A Treasury draw is a possibility, Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi told MarketWatch, although he thinks the chance of one is “less than 50-50.”
The 10-year Treasury declined 49 basis points in the first quarter, far more than the 29-basis point drop that caused Freddie’s loss last year, noted Laurie Goodman, director of the Housing Finance Policy Center at the Urban Institute. (A basis point is one one-hundredth of a percentage point.)
More important than the results from one quarter are Freddie’s steadily shrinking reserves, according to Goodman and Zandi.
Freddie will hold $1.2 billion in 2016, $600 million in 2017, and zero by 2018, its fourth-quarter earnings release noted.
“As capital continues to go down it makes it more likely that they end up with a draw,” Goodman said.
Zandi, who co-wrote a proposal for reforming Freddie and Fannie in March, thinks a loss will help make the case that change is needed. “It may light a fire under lawmakers,” he said. “They clearly don’t want to be in the position of giving Fannie or Freddie…another handout from taxpayers.”
But both he and Goodman think a real overhaul of Fannie and Freddie that would get them out of the current limbo isn’t in the cards for some time. It may even take a crisis to spur lawmakers to act, Goodman said. That may be too late, Zandi noted, making another bailout — and more housing market pain — inevitable.
“The catalyst can’t be the next recession because [Fannie and Freddie] will be out of capital by then.”
Fannie Mae reports its first quarter earnings on Thursday, May 5.
This chart paints a discouraging picture of the stock market today
www.marketwatch.com
By Adam D. Koos
Have you ever been driving down the road and felt something strange that made you think there might be a problem with your car? Most of us have. Imagine taking your car in to a mechanic who listens to you describe the problem, tells you it's no big deal, and then sends you on your way before even glancing at the vehicle, let alone starting it up or taking it out for an investigative test drive. This might seem absurd, but many investors jump to similar conclusions when it comes to the stock market. They take a peek at their portfolio or the stock market, and as long as it's going up, they assume everything is fine without any further examination.
The S&P 500 is up more than 15% since the Feb. 11 intraday lows, and if investors aren't careful, they're going to get caught sleeping. Not that I'm predicting a market crash because my job is not to predict what the market is going to do tomorrow, but to observe the current conditions of the market and maintain the correct level of risk, as determined by the current market landscape.
In either case, markets take time to crash, when in fact they do crash. As such, it's easy for investors to become complacent when they see the market go up. They think, "My financial adviser said to stick with it and that it'll always come back, and by golly, it did." Of course, markets do come back ... eventually. But this assumption ignores the possibility that the current bear market isn't finished clawing money out of the hands of investors.
When I look at the market in the chart below, I see three things:
A. The market has continued its rise as of late
B. It is doing so on overbought and negative-trending momentum
C. It has done so on weakening volume.
In a healthy, northward trending market, we would see momentum
indicators — such as the moving-average convergence/divergence (MACD) at
"A" — trending up along with the market. Instead what we see here is
negative divergence with momentum pointing southward, against the trend.
This unfavorable signal against the grain of prevailing market prices
indicates probable near-term trouble for the market.
Additionally, in a strong market, we would see robust volume accompanying the up-trend. Instead, what we see here is a Price Volume Oscillator (at "C") telling us that, from February through early April, volume actually receded while the market forged ahead. It is important to avoid confusing this action as being resilient. Again, stable volume that tags along with a trend indicates strength of the trend in place, and observing the chart above, it seems to me that momentum is shifting negative all while volume is starting to pick up some steam.
Human beings suffer from a serious case of recency bias, which results in investors quickly forgetting the pain once felt when markets drop. It took almost two years (from 2007-2009) for the market to ransack investors of more than 50% of their wealth. In 2008, there were exactly the same number of positive trading days as there were negative ones, but still the market fell 37%. People kept saying, "The bottom has to be behind us at this point," but it wasn't.
Today we look in the rear-view mirror at a 15% market rebound off the Feb. 11 lows, led primarily by laggard energy, materials and metals stocks. A good portion of this rebound has been carried by large caps, and since the S&P 500 is a cap-weighted index, of course "the market" is going to look good when the largest of the 500 stocks are pulling all the weight while an abundance of middle and small-sized companies remain in the shadows, marinating in bear market territory.
When markets get mature, the small caps go first and then the mid caps fall as investors flee to "blue chips" for safety and dividends. But when the large caps roll over and there aren't as many buyers remaining to buy the shares you're selling, all of a sudden things go parabolic. At least, that is what's at risk today if you look at nothing more than the value of your portfolio today and then walk away.
By Adam D. Koos
Have you ever been driving down the road and felt something strange that made you think there might be a problem with your car? Most of us have. Imagine taking your car in to a mechanic who listens to you describe the problem, tells you it's no big deal, and then sends you on your way before even glancing at the vehicle, let alone starting it up or taking it out for an investigative test drive. This might seem absurd, but many investors jump to similar conclusions when it comes to the stock market. They take a peek at their portfolio or the stock market, and as long as it's going up, they assume everything is fine without any further examination.
The S&P 500 is up more than 15% since the Feb. 11 intraday lows, and if investors aren't careful, they're going to get caught sleeping. Not that I'm predicting a market crash because my job is not to predict what the market is going to do tomorrow, but to observe the current conditions of the market and maintain the correct level of risk, as determined by the current market landscape.
In either case, markets take time to crash, when in fact they do crash. As such, it's easy for investors to become complacent when they see the market go up. They think, "My financial adviser said to stick with it and that it'll always come back, and by golly, it did." Of course, markets do come back ... eventually. But this assumption ignores the possibility that the current bear market isn't finished clawing money out of the hands of investors.
When I look at the market in the chart below, I see three things:
A. The market has continued its rise as of late
B. It is doing so on overbought and negative-trending momentum
C. It has done so on weakening volume.
Additionally, in a strong market, we would see robust volume accompanying the up-trend. Instead, what we see here is a Price Volume Oscillator (at "C") telling us that, from February through early April, volume actually receded while the market forged ahead. It is important to avoid confusing this action as being resilient. Again, stable volume that tags along with a trend indicates strength of the trend in place, and observing the chart above, it seems to me that momentum is shifting negative all while volume is starting to pick up some steam.
Human beings suffer from a serious case of recency bias, which results in investors quickly forgetting the pain once felt when markets drop. It took almost two years (from 2007-2009) for the market to ransack investors of more than 50% of their wealth. In 2008, there were exactly the same number of positive trading days as there were negative ones, but still the market fell 37%. People kept saying, "The bottom has to be behind us at this point," but it wasn't.
Today we look in the rear-view mirror at a 15% market rebound off the Feb. 11 lows, led primarily by laggard energy, materials and metals stocks. A good portion of this rebound has been carried by large caps, and since the S&P 500 is a cap-weighted index, of course "the market" is going to look good when the largest of the 500 stocks are pulling all the weight while an abundance of middle and small-sized companies remain in the shadows, marinating in bear market territory.
When markets get mature, the small caps go first and then the mid caps fall as investors flee to "blue chips" for safety and dividends. But when the large caps roll over and there aren't as many buyers remaining to buy the shares you're selling, all of a sudden things go parabolic. At least, that is what's at risk today if you look at nothing more than the value of your portfolio today and then walk away.
黑客洩3600紐約市民資料 籲恐怖分子殺人
on.cc東網專訊
【on.cc東網專訊】 一個與極端回教組織「伊斯蘭國」（IS）有關的黑客組織，本周日在網上披露美國紐約3600名市民的資料，呼籲恐怖分子殺死他們。當局正嘗試聯絡有關人士，但相信事件沒有實際威脅。
該黑客組織「網絡哈里法軍」（Caliphate Cyber Army）發放的名單，據指以國務院及保安部門的公務員為目標，但當中大部分人其實都是與政府無關的一般市民，並非政治活躍人士。美國情報人員指，由於有關市民的年齡層廣泛，相信是被黑客隨機抽選出來。
施襲名單上披露了3600名市民的名字、住址及電郵等私隱，當局正嘗試通知他們有關威脅。一名88歲老翁從聯邦調查局（FBI）得悉自己在名單之上，但他表示並不擔心，認為只是心理戰，圖令紐約市民人心惶惶。
【on.cc東網專訊】 一個與極端回教組織「伊斯蘭國」（IS）有關的黑客組織，本周日在網上披露美國紐約3600名市民的資料，呼籲恐怖分子殺死他們。當局正嘗試聯絡有關人士，但相信事件沒有實際威脅。
該黑客組織「網絡哈里法軍」（Caliphate Cyber Army）發放的名單，據指以國務院及保安部門的公務員為目標，但當中大部分人其實都是與政府無關的一般市民，並非政治活躍人士。美國情報人員指，由於有關市民的年齡層廣泛，相信是被黑客隨機抽選出來。
施襲名單上披露了3600名市民的名字、住址及電郵等私隱，當局正嘗試通知他們有關威脅。一名88歲老翁從聯邦調查局（FBI）得悉自己在名單之上，但他表示並不擔心，認為只是心理戰，圖令紐約市民人心惶惶。
Vogue慶英版創刊百年 百歲女人瑞任模特兒
一百歲, so easy !
on.cc東網專訊【on.cc東網專訊】 提起時裝模特兒，一般人腦海中都立刻想到年輕可人、身材高挑的美女，但國際著名時裝雜誌《時尚》（Vogue）為慶祝英國版創刊100周年，特別與英國高 級百貨公司夏菲尼高（Harvey Nichols）合作，請來一名全無模特兒經驗的百歲人瑞，為5月出版的一期擔任模特兒，藉此帶出高尚品味沒有年齡界限的信息。
獲《時尚》青睞的是現獨居於伯明翰一間長者屋的寡婦吉貝爾（Majorie Gilbert）。她早前在當地一份報章撰文，談自己如何慶祝100歲壽辰，繼而被夏菲尼高的廣告代理發掘，邀請她擔任該公司SS16系列時裝的代言人。
吉貝爾1916年1月12日於威爾斯的阿伯德爾（Aberdare）出生，11歲時隨家人搬到伯明翰，並在當地結婚生女，不過其夫及女兒已過世，女婿和孫兒仍不時探望她。
夏菲尼高除了為吉貝爾拍攝硬照刊登於五月號的《時尚》外，亦為她拍攝了一段短片，讓觀眾一睹這位《時尚》歷來年紀最大的模特兒風采。
吉貝爾在短片中表示，雖然從未擔任過模特兒，但扮靚和穿着時尚一直是她的喜好，即使現時已年過百歲，每天仍要化妝、穿高跟鞋和梳個靚髮型才見人。她又指，扮靚是為自己而扮，絕不是為了討好男人。
談到自己的時尚偶像，吉貝爾指最推崇已故美國女星柯德莉夏萍，因為對方總能呈現出自己最美麗的一面。她又認為，追求美非常重要，她慨嘆現在的人已很少注意這方面，例如現在已很少見女性戴帽子。
吉貝爾表示，她從沒想過會被發掘作模特兒，但稱很榮幸能獲邀。在短片中，吉貝爾雖然沒有分享養生之道，但她說：「我經常做一般人以為我這年齡不會做的事。」或許這就是她已屆百歲，仍能活得精彩的原因。
電子課本爛尾 議員責政府目標短淺欠持續
想買俾孫仔孫女學中文都突然無得賣 !
on.cc東網專訊【on.cc東網專訊】 教育局早前宣布無意展開新一輪，由前特首曾蔭權於2012和2013年力推的「電子教科書市場開拓計劃」(EMADS)，有電子書商今早舉行「免費共享中 文教科書」研討會，冀集合社會力量在今年6月開始籌資200萬港元，目標在2019年向大眾提供一套免費小學、初中及非華語小學生的中文印刷教科書，並再 以特價約60港元，吸引家長購買，為學生提供更多學科上的資料。
研討會其中一名講者、立法會議員(資訊科技界)莫乃光批評，計劃非為每科、每級提供電子書「細眉細眼」，港府亦沒為計劃訂下參與學校數目等長遠目標，欠缺持續性，冀當局提供更強誘因予學校推廣電子書。
研究會吸引逾20名教師參加。舉辦方行政總裁巫偉光指出，過往電子書市場一直被傳統書商壟斷，且開發電子書成本貴，令其他書商卻步。但他認為使用電子書是科技社會發展的必然趨勢，故多年前早已為200多間中、小學自行製作中文電子書及電子教育平台。
莫乃光補充，當初港府推出EMADS時沒有周詳統籌，一方面害怕干預傳統書商市場，僅資助部分沒有經驗的電子書商開發電子書，實際上卻非為每科、每級提供電子書，亦沒有向學校提供資助等誘因使用，令家長仍抱有「用實體書安心啲」觀感，結果令計劃「爛尾」。
對於現時有個別電子書商籌資推免費教科書，莫認為港府不能獨善其身，應提供更多資源予學校及發展商形成一個可持續供給系統，長遠幫助港府減省書簿津貼支出。
憂「高危」企債爆煲滬綜軟
hk.finance.yahoo.com
滬綜指昨高開0.07%，惟午後曾跌至2,916點，跌1.26%，收市仍跌0.27%，收報2,945點；深成指昨亦輕微高開，收報10,149點，跌0.24%。兩市成交額微增4,314億元（人民幣‧下同）。深圳創業板指數昨逆市升，收報2,155點，升0.4%。
滬股通昨錄淨流入，昨日每日額度餘額為128.48億元，即淨流入1.52億元。
深交所修訂四項《交易規則》，包括深交所交易主機九時二十五分至九時三十分期間，不再接受競價交易申報，與香港交易時間看齊，上交所亦曾於滬港通開通前修改競價申報時間。
規模超7600億破紀錄
內 地債市風險再引發市場關注，外媒報道指，內地債市今年將迎來天量「高危」行業信用債到期，投資者正面臨史無前例的的信用違約風險。報道指，處於煤炭、金屬 和礦業此類產能過剩行業的公司，在今年第二至四季度累計債券到期規模超過7,600億元，為紀錄以來最高，亦較去年同期增34%、較一四年同期增逾一倍。
報道亦指，整體債券市場在年內到期規模亦將攀升至頂峰，料最高到期規模總量將達4.12萬億元，較去年同期增長23%。
內銀「排雷」 研推CDS
面對債券市場的剛性兌付被進一步打破，內媒報道指，各類投資債券的金融機構近期積極「排雷」，盡早拋出可能出現違約的債券，以免「踩雷」。報道指，目前已有銀行向管理人發出不再新配置信用債的指令，並亦下調業績基準，從原先4.8至5%，降至3.5%左右。
【東方日報專訊】滬深股市反覆偏軟，滬綜指跌0.27%，深成指跌0.24%。外媒報道，今年中國債市將迎來天量「高危」行業信用債到期，投資者面臨史無前例的信用違約風險，故市場正積極「排雷」。
滬股通昨錄淨流入，昨日每日額度餘額為128.48億元，即淨流入1.52億元。
深交所修訂四項《交易規則》，包括深交所交易主機九時二十五分至九時三十分期間，不再接受競價交易申報，與香港交易時間看齊，上交所亦曾於滬港通開通前修改競價申報時間。
規模超7600億破紀錄
內 地債市風險再引發市場關注，外媒報道指，內地債市今年將迎來天量「高危」行業信用債到期，投資者正面臨史無前例的的信用違約風險。報道指，處於煤炭、金屬 和礦業此類產能過剩行業的公司，在今年第二至四季度累計債券到期規模超過7,600億元，為紀錄以來最高，亦較去年同期增34%、較一四年同期增逾一倍。
報道亦指，整體債券市場在年內到期規模亦將攀升至頂峰，料最高到期規模總量將達4.12萬億元，較去年同期增長23%。
內銀「排雷」 研推CDS
面對債券市場的剛性兌付被進一步打破，內媒報道指，各類投資債券的金融機構近期積極「排雷」，盡早拋出可能出現違約的債券，以免「踩雷」。報道指，目前已有銀行向管理人發出不再新配置信用債的指令，並亦下調業績基準，從原先4.8至5%，降至3.5%左右。
在違約事件頻生及信用風險逐漸被暴露下，外媒指內地正考慮推出平抑對沖信用風險的工具，包括信貸違約掉期（CDS）及信用聯結票據（CLN）。報道指，中國銀行間交易商協會近期就銀行間市場信用風險緩釋工具試點業務向部分機構徵求意見，考慮推CDS和CLN。
摩通料日圓年底見103
hk.finance.yahoo.com
摩根大通預期，日圓年底將升至103兌1美元水平。而中金則認為，日央行或需更多時間，觀察負利率的不良影響，故今次選擇按兵不動。中金指，即 使再加碼寬鬆，亦有機會被市場解讀為對經濟已黔驢技窮，因持續三年，每年接近80萬億日圓的巨額購買資產計劃，未能成功讓日本擺脫通縮，再擴大寬鬆亦未必可以成功推高通脹。
對於日央行行長黑田東彥的決定，外界繼續議論紛紛，有指市場對日央行的信心盡失，《華爾街日報》引述交易員表示，原本不少對沖基金押重注於日本加大量寬，因而沽空日圓，但議息結果令市場嘩然，繼而觸發大量淡倉的平倉盤，導致日圓急升。
現時市場普遍相信，日央行已沒有板斧刺激當地經濟，應由政府出手收拾殘局，而日本的經常帳盈餘亦對日圓帶來支持。
日圓強勢下，美匯指數跌至93.2的八個月低位。（nc）
【星島日報報道】日本央行昨爆冷未有擴大貨幣寬鬆措施，日圓自111水平急升逾3%。日圓匯價今日延續強勢，升上年半高位，每百日圓兌港元升至7.24以上水平。
日圓延續昨日強勢，一度升至106.9兌1美元水平，升上2014年10月以來高位，而每百日圓兌港元升至7.24水平。摩根大通預期，日圓年底將升至103兌1美元水平。而中金則認為，日央行或需更多時間，觀察負利率的不良影響，故今次選擇按兵不動。中金指，即 使再加碼寬鬆，亦有機會被市場解讀為對經濟已黔驢技窮，因持續三年，每年接近80萬億日圓的巨額購買資產計劃，未能成功讓日本擺脫通縮，再擴大寬鬆亦未必可以成功推高通脹。
對於日央行行長黑田東彥的決定，外界繼續議論紛紛，有指市場對日央行的信心盡失，《華爾街日報》引述交易員表示，原本不少對沖基金押重注於日本加大量寬，因而沽空日圓，但議息結果令市場嘩然，繼而觸發大量淡倉的平倉盤，導致日圓急升。
現時市場普遍相信，日央行已沒有板斧刺激當地經濟，應由政府出手收拾殘局，而日本的經常帳盈餘亦對日圓帶來支持。
日圓強勢下，美匯指數跌至93.2的八個月低位。（nc）
美國財政部點名台灣干預匯市
美國控制利率, 就干預唔到匯率 ?
hk.finance.yahoo.com
【星島日報報道】美國財政部向國會提交半年度匯率報告，將人民幣列入外匯觀察名單。報告同時再次點名台灣，干預匯率。
外匯局官員表示，央行尊重市場決定匯率，但台灣是小型經濟體，若市場不理性導致匯率波動過大，將不利台灣經濟穩定，央行本於職責，必須穩定新台幣匯率。
美國財政部報告認定，台對美的經常帳呈現順差，而這和過去一年的多數時間，在外匯市場採取「持續且單向的干預」有關。
港股險守21000 五窮料難捱
來緊, 可能會是[價值投資]者難捱的月份 !
hk.finance.yahoo.com
【星島日報報道】日圓持續上升、美國經濟增長放慢，加上重磅國企的季度業績未有驚喜，影響大市氣氛，恒生指數昨天下挫320點，收報21067點。整個4月份港股仍有291點進帳，但外圍市況動盪，證券界認為港股在「五窮月」將備受考驗。
5月期指昨收市報20854點，低水213點，低水幅度較大，主要反映藍籌股在5月派息除淨的因素。
藍籌表現方面，中移動（941）昨挫2.7%，收報88.95元，失守90元大關。騰訊（700）跌1.3%，收報158.9元。單計騰訊及中移動已推低恒指76點。
中石油（857）上市以來首度單季勁蝕過百億元，股價全日受壓，收報5.71元，挫3.6%。至於中石化（386）業績雖然理想，首季盈利增長逾兩倍，但在能源股全線下跌下，股價昨仍跌1.3%，收報5.53元。
另外，蚊型股恒生（兆保）（3626）今日低調開招，招股價介乎1.1至1.36元，每股2000股入場費2747元，5月18日掛牌。該公司擬發行4600萬股，集資最多6256萬元。
金利豐證劵研究部董事黃德几認為，美國市場不少重磅股業績欠佳，美股有機會繼續回吐；加上日圓急升令金融市場波動，港股在「五窮月」相信會繼續調整，初步支持在20800點，但有機會跌至20400點。
耀才證券（1428）研究部經理植耀輝指出，中國即將公布4月份製造業採購經理指數（PMI）等經濟數據，如果表現未如理想，港股或會下試20500點水平。
As The Price Of Gold Soars, Legend Warns That The World May Now Be Facing Catastrophic Consequences
文章說, 小心美股市走入熊市, 也要小心通脹的來臨 !
kingworldnews.comToday a legend who oversees more than $170 billion warned that the world may now be facing “catastrophic consequences.”
Eric King: “Rob, your firm helps to oversee $170 billion globally. What has you worried going forward? What has you concerned?”
Rob Arnott: “We are overdue for a U.S. equity bear market and if we get a bear market it will have ripple effects across other asset classes. But the other thing that worries me even more than that is the central banks losing credibility and losing control.
Massive Wealth Expropriation
Let’s suppose that headline inflation, already up to 2.3 percent in the last 6 – 8 months, hits 3 percent in the next 6 or 8 months. All the sudden the central bank (the Fed) has lost control. The central bank can’t keep interest rates down at zero when inflation is running around 3 percent. That winds up being a massive wealth expropriation from anyone with savings.
The government is intentionally engaging in wealth destruction for the affluent savers. That’s the essence of negative real interest rates. But if you are trying to carry zero interest rates in a 3 percent inflation environment, it stimulates all sorts of crazy behavior on behalf of the general public, and it winds up defeating the purpose of low interest rates, which is to stimulate the macroeconomy.
The Hairy 1970s
So, ironically, you could have the Fed’s efforts to stimulate the economy with low interest rates having the unfortunate effect of stimulating hoarding instead of stimulating inflation in the macroeconomy. And you could have inflation get out of hand anyway so that you wind up with the worst of both worlds — a stagnation in the macroeconomy and outright recession, paired with renewed inflation. It’s called stagflation. We had that in the 1970s and it was brutal. That’s a risk. It’s certainly possible and if the Fed loses control, watch out.”
King World News note: Off the air Arnott warned me that if the above scenario unfolds it will have “catastrophic consequences.”
The last time Rob Arnott was interviewed on KWN he recommended a specific fund to the global listeners, including the ticker symbol. In less than 3 months that fund has returned more than a staggering 26 percent! Arnott again gave specific recommendations for the global listeners and he also discussed the coming inflationary carnage that is in front of us.
Commercial Short Positions In The Silver Market Hit All-Time Record!
文章說, 金銀市場的空倉己累積, 所以大家要小心, 金銀價可以俾人推落去, 不過高手過招, 不知鹿死誰手 !
只要保留一手現金在手, 不怕價格跌, 因為又可以買到平貨 !
kingworldnews.com全文After a large decline in the dollar this week, both gold and silver continued to surge on Friday, with gold gaining close to $30 and silver rising 30 cents. On the heels of that trading, below is an important update on the war that is raging in the gold and silver markets.
Commercial Short Positions In Silver Hit All-Time Record High!
King World News note: Below you can see the commercial hedgers position in the silver market market. Note that commercial hedgers been adding aggressively to their short positions and have hit a new high in terms of their overall shorts (see multi-year chart below).
The commercial shorts are at a level that raises serious concern. In fact, the commercials now have their largest short cumulative short position in history. The last time the commercials held this large of a short position in silver was in 2004. Again, that does not mean that the price of silver cannot head significantly higher in the short-term.
King World News note: Sometimes it’s important to take a step back and look at the big picture in the silver market. Looking at the 23-year chart below, the commercials are now the most short silver that they have ever been in history (see fascinating 23-year chart below).
What is important to note on the chart above is that the last time the commercials were this short silver there was a brief 12.7 percent pullback in the price of silver, but over the next 18 months the price of silver more than doubled from the low of that pullback in 2004. So from late November of 2004, when the price of silver fell to about $6.70, the price of silver soared to $14.31 by early May of 2006. Nevertheless, the commercials now have historic short bets against silver and that is something that traders and investors should watch closely.
King World News note: Below you can see the commercial hedgers position in the gold market. There was essentially no change in commercial short positions reported for this week (see 10-year chart below). That does not mean that the price of gold cannot continue heading significantly higher in the short-term, but it does raise a caution flag.
梁志堅：難道叫發展商跳樓？
文匯報
香港文匯報訊（記者 梁悅琴、
蘇洪鏘）
政府持續增加土地，首季新樓施工量創1.33萬伙紀錄新高，按季升3.7倍，幾乎追平去年全年總數。惟同期新盤銷售減慢，樓花貨尾量增至6.5萬
伙，破紀錄之餘，更推高未來三年至四年一手樓潛在供應達9.2萬伙新高，按季增加5,000伙。雖然政府及市場看跌樓市，但地產建設商會仍死撐樓價不會大跌，該商會執委會主席梁志堅昨直指：「難道叫發展商跳樓？發展商會計成本來賣樓。」
對於本港未來3至4年一手盤潛在供應達9.2萬伙新高，地產建設商會執委會主席梁志堅昨指出，新盤落
成期有規定，發展商很難因應市況隨便加快或減慢施工，並認為即使供應多，
樓價都未必下跌。他指出，政府認為供應多樓價便下跌，令買家不用心急入市置業，然而，建築費一直上升，難道叫發展商跳樓？大家都會計成本來賣樓。他稱，地
產建設商會一直有向政府就批則及預售樓花提出意見，認為政府審批雖有進步，但過程仍較緩慢。
林達民料樓價已經見底
恒地營業(一)部總經理林達民認為，今年初已預計今年將有逾100個新盤，因為供應多，令今年首兩季
發展商加快尋底覓平衡價格，相信現在已成底。「未來開盤只要合理價，其實都會售得好，相信第二、三季都係推盤好時間，預計樓價會回穩。」不過他認為仍要視
乎發展商營造氣氛、以及香港和內地經濟因素。對於潛在供應創新高，他認為，未來4年有9.2萬伙的供應，亦接近市場吸納量。
中原地產亞太區住宅部總裁陳永傑表示，未來住宅供應升破9萬伙，創歷史新高，是政府回應社會對住屋需
求的結果，包括推出限呎、限量地，令中小型住宅大增，但此舉對後市影響深遠，尤其是如今面對經濟轉差，失業率上升，市場能否消化亦成問題，供應壓力大過
天。近期所見，現樓盤銷情較好，原因為住屋需求，但樓花期長的新盤因有遲買會平的壓力，銷情只是一般，令貨尾量上升，當此批新盤於未來兩至三年入伙時，發
展商要面對現實大劈價賣樓，這些供應主要來自細單位，未來中小型住宅樓價壓力最大。
發展商照賺 二手業主愁
他認為，供應增對發展商的賣樓部署不會造成問題，因現時一手盤利潤仍高，今日賣平些，日後亦可賣貴
些，反而面對一手盤的競爭，二手樓業主可能要自求多福。他又指，未來供應多，經濟又轉差，樓市3D辣招已不合時宜，政府應檢討3D辣招政策，預計今年第三
及四季整體樓價會跌5%，細價樓則跌約5%至8%。
美聯物業住宅部行政總裁布少明亦指，住宅新供應上升，加上現有萬伙貨尾，明年多個新盤入伙亦會令樓市造成壓力，若經濟持續轉差，失業率上升，明年樓價或會下跌10%。
期金漲近2% 創15個月新高
on.cc東網專訊
【on.cc東網專訊】 得益於美元大幅走低，貴金屬價格向上。COMEX 6月黃金期貨全日漲24.1美元，漲幅1.9%，收報每安士1,290.5美元，創15個月收盤新高，4月份累漲4.4%。COMEX 7月白銀期貨漲0.231美元，漲幅1.3%，收報每安士17.819美元，4月份累漲約15%。
【on.cc東網專訊】 得益於美元大幅走低，貴金屬價格向上。COMEX 6月黃金期貨全日漲24.1美元，漲幅1.9%，收報每安士1,290.5美元，創15個月收盤新高，4月份累漲4.4%。COMEX 7月白銀期貨漲0.231美元，漲幅1.3%，收報每安士17.819美元，4月份累漲約15%。
中央政治局：經濟下行壓力仍然較大
on.cc東網專訊
【on.cc東網專訊】 據內地傳媒報道，中央政治局日前召開會議，會議強調，經濟下行壓力仍然較大，一些實體企業生產經營仍然困難，市場風險點增多。對存在的突出矛盾和問題，必須高度重視，冷靜分析，有針對性採取措施，做好打攻堅戰、持久戰的準備，紥實做好工作。
又指，宏觀經濟政策要增強針對性，要保持股市健康發展，充分發揮市場機制調節作用，加強基礎制度建設，加強市場監管，保護投資者權益。
另外，亦要保持人民幣匯率基本穩定，逐步形成以市場供求為基礎、雙向浮動、有彈性的匯率運行機制。
同 時也要按照加快提高戶籍人口城鎮化率和深化住房制度改革的要求，有序消化房地產庫存，注重解決區域性、結構性問題，實行差別化的調控政策。要堅持基本經濟 制度，深化國有企業改革，促進非公有制經濟健康發展，擴大對外開放，吸引外國資本來華投資，穩定發展預期，增強市場信心。
【on.cc東網專訊】 據內地傳媒報道，中央政治局日前召開會議，會議強調，經濟下行壓力仍然較大，一些實體企業生產經營仍然困難，市場風險點增多。對存在的突出矛盾和問題，必須高度重視，冷靜分析，有針對性採取措施，做好打攻堅戰、持久戰的準備，紥實做好工作。
又指，宏觀經濟政策要增強針對性，要保持股市健康發展，充分發揮市場機制調節作用，加強基礎制度建設，加強市場監管，保護投資者權益。
另外，亦要保持人民幣匯率基本穩定，逐步形成以市場供求為基礎、雙向浮動、有彈性的匯率運行機制。
同 時也要按照加快提高戶籍人口城鎮化率和深化住房制度改革的要求，有序消化房地產庫存，注重解決區域性、結構性問題，實行差別化的調控政策。要堅持基本經濟 制度，深化國有企業改革，促進非公有制經濟健康發展，擴大對外開放，吸引外國資本來華投資，穩定發展預期，增強市場信心。
美股收市向下 蘋果再跌逾1%
on.cc東網專訊
【on.cc東網專訊】 美元維持走弱，且市場仍在消化多間企業首季業績，美股3大指數收市向下。道指盤中一度跌逾170點，全日跌57點或0.32%，收報17,773點；標指 跌10點或0.5%，收報2,065點；納指跌29點或0.62%，收報4,775點。
總結4月份，道指累升88點或0.5%；標指累升6點或0.3%；納指則累跌94點或1.9%。
10年期美債收益率下跌1.7個基點，至1.821%。該收益率於4月份累計上漲4個基點；惟年初至今仍累計下跌45個基點。
由於市況波動，有恐慌指數之稱的芝加哥期權交易所波動性指數(VIX)急升逾10%至17.09，為自3月中以來最高。
日本央行意外地不加額放水，令日圓匯價升至18個月新高，美元匯價續跌。美元兌日圓跌穿107，現報106.49，單日大跌1.51%。其實上，日圓今年以來已升值達12%。
醫療股及科技股為主要領跌板塊。生物科技藥廠Gilead首季收入及盈利均遜預期，縱使公司提高股息9.3%至每股47美元，但股價全日挫逾9%。蘋果公司(Apple Inc)連跌兩日後跌勢未止，今日再挫1.15%，收報93.74美元。
兩大油股公布季績後個別發展。埃克森美孚(Exxon Mobil)上季盈利倒退63%至18億美元，每股盈利43美仙，好過預期的31美仙，股價升0.42%；雪佛龍(Chevron)上季由盈轉虧，蝕 7.25億美元，扣除特殊項目後，每股盈利11美仙，遜於市場預期，股價微跌0.21%。
【on.cc東網專訊】 美元維持走弱，且市場仍在消化多間企業首季業績，美股3大指數收市向下。道指盤中一度跌逾170點，全日跌57點或0.32%，收報17,773點；標指 跌10點或0.5%，收報2,065點；納指跌29點或0.62%，收報4,775點。
總結4月份，道指累升88點或0.5%；標指累升6點或0.3%；納指則累跌94點或1.9%。
10年期美債收益率下跌1.7個基點，至1.821%。該收益率於4月份累計上漲4個基點；惟年初至今仍累計下跌45個基點。
由於市況波動，有恐慌指數之稱的芝加哥期權交易所波動性指數(VIX)急升逾10%至17.09，為自3月中以來最高。
日本央行意外地不加額放水，令日圓匯價升至18個月新高，美元匯價續跌。美元兌日圓跌穿107，現報106.49，單日大跌1.51%。其實上，日圓今年以來已升值達12%。
醫療股及科技股為主要領跌板塊。生物科技藥廠Gilead首季收入及盈利均遜預期，縱使公司提高股息9.3%至每股47美元，但股價全日挫逾9%。蘋果公司(Apple Inc)連跌兩日後跌勢未止，今日再挫1.15%，收報93.74美元。
兩大油股公布季績後個別發展。埃克森美孚(Exxon Mobil)上季盈利倒退63%至18億美元，每股盈利43美仙，好過預期的31美仙，股價升0.42%；雪佛龍(Chevron)上季由盈轉虧，蝕 7.25億美元，扣除特殊項目後，每股盈利11美仙，遜於市場預期，股價微跌0.21%。
貨運量連跌：工人司機保險砸飯碗 物流業危
on.cc東網專訊
【on.cc東網專訊】 香港貨運吞吐量連跌21個月，導致最新全球貨櫃吞吐量排名跌至第6位，令身為香港經濟4大支柱之1的物流業，岌岌可危。貨櫃吞吐量下跌已造成骨牌效應，拖 冧3大行業。第1，部分貨櫃碼頭工人收入較去年同期大跌3成；第2，中港貨櫃車司機每星期僅開工3至4日；第3，貨物保險業生意也較去年下跌約10%，業界估計近年有15%從業員已「跳船」。
「好多貨櫃碼頭工人嘅工資，係逐日計算，上年，工人每月開工日數約25日，但喺今年1至3月，平均 得17日，跌幅逾30%，收入少咗6,000幾蚊，好難捱!」貨櫃運輸業職工總會主席陳迪手指出，貨運吞吐量下滑，令3,000多名吊機手、工程人員及橋 邊理貨員等的貨櫃碼頭工人，生計大受影響。
運送貨櫃往來香港及大陸的中港貨櫃車司機，更是吊鹽水。「往年，自3月起喺踏入香港貨櫃出入口 旺季，但今年截至4月，港口貨櫃量仍未見有顯著回升，令司機嘅收入，較去年少咗3成。」落馬洲中港貨運聯會主席蔣志偉無奈說，「呢行約有40,000名貨 櫃車司機，數年至今，已有約3成司機因生計無法維持，黯然轉行。」
中港貨櫃車司機標哥稱，「去年1星期可以接到5至6個貨櫃，但喺今年，每個星期只係接得2兩至3個櫃，每星期開工2、3日，收入少咗約6,000蚊。」
骨牌效應下，貨物保險業也受影響。香港保險業總工會理事長張偉良透露，以1個40呎標準貨櫃，內含10萬美元(約78萬港元)價值的貨物為例，貨物險保費達 萬多港元。有1間保險公司，往年1星期的貨物險保費逾60億港元，但在今年，每個星期的貨物險保費，蒸發約5億港元。「喺過去3年，保險業正面臨重大挑 戰，因為佣金減少，有公司近年約有15%保險從業員已經『跳船』。」
香港中文大學市場學系教授冼日明謂，「新加坡同大陸，喺軟硬件配套設施上，比香港優勝，如果港府不思進取，未來1、2年，貨櫃相關行業將會雪上加霜。」
【on.cc東網專訊】 香港貨運吞吐量連跌21個月，導致最新全球貨櫃吞吐量排名跌至第6位，令身為香港經濟4大支柱之1的物流業，岌岌可危。貨櫃吞吐量下跌已造成骨牌效應，拖 冧3大行業。第1，部分貨櫃碼頭工人收入較去年同期大跌3成；第2，中港貨櫃車司機每星期僅開工3至4日；第3，貨物保險業生意也較去年下跌約10%，業界估計近年有15%從業員已「跳船」。
「好多貨櫃碼頭工人嘅工資，係逐日計算，上年，工人每月開工日數約25日，但喺今年1至3月，平均 得17日，跌幅逾30%，收入少咗6,000幾蚊，好難捱!」貨櫃運輸業職工總會主席陳迪手指出，貨運吞吐量下滑，令3,000多名吊機手、工程人員及橋 邊理貨員等的貨櫃碼頭工人，生計大受影響。
運送貨櫃往來香港及大陸的中港貨櫃車司機，更是吊鹽水。「往年，自3月起喺踏入香港貨櫃出入口 旺季，但今年截至4月，港口貨櫃量仍未見有顯著回升，令司機嘅收入，較去年少咗3成。」落馬洲中港貨運聯會主席蔣志偉無奈說，「呢行約有40,000名貨 櫃車司機，數年至今，已有約3成司機因生計無法維持，黯然轉行。」
中港貨櫃車司機標哥稱，「去年1星期可以接到5至6個貨櫃，但喺今年，每個星期只係接得2兩至3個櫃，每星期開工2、3日，收入少咗約6,000蚊。」
骨牌效應下，貨物保險業也受影響。香港保險業總工會理事長張偉良透露，以1個40呎標準貨櫃，內含10萬美元(約78萬港元)價值的貨物為例，貨物險保費達 萬多港元。有1間保險公司，往年1星期的貨物險保費逾60億港元，但在今年，每個星期的貨物險保費，蒸發約5億港元。「喺過去3年，保險業正面臨重大挑 戰，因為佣金減少，有公司近年約有15%保險從業員已經『跳船』。」
香港中文大學市場學系教授冼日明謂，「新加坡同大陸，喺軟硬件配套設施上，比香港優勝，如果港府不思進取，未來1、2年，貨櫃相關行業將會雪上加霜。」
2016 1oz Australia Wedge Tailed Eagle Silver Coin BU
Denomination: $1.00
Mint Mark: P - Perth Mint
Edge Reeded
Metal Content: 1 troy oz
Purity: .999
Thickness: 4 mm
Diameter: 40.6 mm
Manufacturer: Perth Mint
Comes in original protective plastic capsule
Limited mintage of 50,000 coins
前天在LPM買191蚊1枚, 普製1盎司澳洲麻鷹銀幣, 有原廠透明膠盒附送 !
2016年4月29日 星期五
USDJPY Plunges As Dollar Drops To 11 Month Lows, Commodities Rise
www.zerohedge.com全文
Following yesterday's Yen surge in the aftermath of the disappointing BOJ announcement, the pain for USDJPY long continued, with the key carry pair tumbling as low as 106, the lowest level since October 2014 before stabilizing around 107, and is now headed for its biggest weekly gain since 2008, which in turn has pushed the US dollar to to its lowest close in almost a year as signs of slowing growth in the U.S. dimmed prospects for a Federal Reserve interest-rate increase. As a result, global stocks fell and commodities extended gains in their best month since 2010.
The yen strengthened against all 16 major peers for the second day in a row, climbing as much as 1.1 percent to 106.91 a dollar, the strongest level since October 2014. It surged 4.3 percent this week as the Bank of Japan defied economists’ expectations that stimulus would be stepped up.
The sliding dollar is proving beneficial for raw materials, helping lift gold and silver to 15-month highs. Crude oil has jumped 21 percent this month to more than $46 a barrel in New York. European equities trimmed their biggest monthly advance since November.
As Bloomberg writes, the dollar’s third straight monthly drop and the prospects for the Fed moving gradually on interest rates are spurring the outlook for inflation, with the 10-year U.S. break-even rate at the highest since July. Reports today on consumer confidence and personal spending will provide clues on the trajectory of the world’s largest economy after data on Thursday showed the slowest pace of expansion in two years.
Looking at regional markets, Asia traded mixed amid holiday thinned trade and a cautious tone following Wall St. losses, where an Apple sell-off and weak US GDP dampened sentiment. However, ASX 200 (+0.4%) edged higher underpinned by commodity strength in which WTI broke above USD 46/bbl.
Elsewhere, the Shanghai Comp (-0.3%) was subdued after further discouraging earnings in which PetroChina posted its first ever quarterly loss and ICBC reported lacklustre growth as well as an increase in NPL's, while the PBoC also conducted a net CNY 290b1n drain. Finally, Japanese markets were shut for Showa Day public holiday.
In Europe, despite the upside in the energy complex today, sentiment is firmly dampened after the soft close in the US yesterday and the risk off trading seen overnight. Although Asia saw thin trade due to the Japanese holiday, the upside seen in both JPY and precious metals illustrated the uncertainty felt across asset classes, with this filtering through to Europe.
Equities have traded in the red throughout the morning, with Euro Stoxx lower by 1.2%, although with the downside in equities failing to filter through to any significant price action in fixed income. Bunds are flat on the day and continue to trade in the tight range between 162.50 and 162.25.
In Fx, it has been a mixed session in FX, but one which again is to the detriment of the USD as the index is pressed down to fresh 6 month+ lows on the back of another down-leg in USD/JPY. Losses in London saw 107.00 taken out, but ahead of 106.50, exotic protective bids are helping contain the sell-off, albeit temporarily so as yet. EUR/USD has been propelled higher accordingly, having adopted a strong bid tone in recent sessions. Earlier gains extended through the pre 1.1400 top seen over the ECB press conference last week, and despite running into strong offers above here, the pullback is contained ahead of 1.1350, with better than expected Q1 GDP in the Euro zone now aiding the bid. This has also helped EUR/GBP recover a little, with Cable now only managing to match the early Feb high at 1.4667 before retracing back through 1.4600. Bids in the mid 1.4550's supporting for now. Commodities still recovering amid the backdrop of recent jitters in equity markets. Oil continues to power north to help maintain USD/CAD pressure on 1.2500. Strong bids coming in ahead of this but sellers keen ahead of 1.2550.
Looking at regional markets, Asia traded mixed amid holiday thinned trade and a cautious tone following Wall St. losses, where an Apple sell-off and weak US GDP dampened sentiment. However, ASX 200 (+0.4%) edged higher underpinned by commodity strength in which WTI broke above USD 46/bbl.
Elsewhere, the Shanghai Comp (-0.3%) was subdued after further discouraging earnings in which PetroChina posted its first ever quarterly loss and ICBC reported lacklustre growth as well as an increase in NPL's, while the PBoC also conducted a net CNY 290b1n drain. Finally, Japanese markets were shut for Showa Day public holiday.
Following yesterday's Yen surge in the aftermath of the disappointing BOJ announcement, the pain for USDJPY long continued, with the key carry pair tumbling as low as 106, the lowest level since October 2014 before stabilizing around 107, and is now headed for its biggest weekly gain since 2008, which in turn has pushed the US dollar to to its lowest close in almost a year as signs of slowing growth in the U.S. dimmed prospects for a Federal Reserve interest-rate increase. As a result, global stocks fell and commodities extended gains in their best month since 2010.
The yen strengthened against all 16 major peers for the second day in a row, climbing as much as 1.1 percent to 106.91 a dollar, the strongest level since October 2014. It surged 4.3 percent this week as the Bank of Japan defied economists’ expectations that stimulus would be stepped up.
The sliding dollar is proving beneficial for raw materials, helping lift gold and silver to 15-month highs. Crude oil has jumped 21 percent this month to more than $46 a barrel in New York. European equities trimmed their biggest monthly advance since November.
As Bloomberg writes, the dollar’s third straight monthly drop and the prospects for the Fed moving gradually on interest rates are spurring the outlook for inflation, with the 10-year U.S. break-even rate at the highest since July. Reports today on consumer confidence and personal spending will provide clues on the trajectory of the world’s largest economy after data on Thursday showed the slowest pace of expansion in two years.
Looking at regional markets, Asia traded mixed amid holiday thinned trade and a cautious tone following Wall St. losses, where an Apple sell-off and weak US GDP dampened sentiment. However, ASX 200 (+0.4%) edged higher underpinned by commodity strength in which WTI broke above USD 46/bbl.
Elsewhere, the Shanghai Comp (-0.3%) was subdued after further discouraging earnings in which PetroChina posted its first ever quarterly loss and ICBC reported lacklustre growth as well as an increase in NPL's, while the PBoC also conducted a net CNY 290b1n drain. Finally, Japanese markets were shut for Showa Day public holiday.
In Europe, despite the upside in the energy complex today, sentiment is firmly dampened after the soft close in the US yesterday and the risk off trading seen overnight. Although Asia saw thin trade due to the Japanese holiday, the upside seen in both JPY and precious metals illustrated the uncertainty felt across asset classes, with this filtering through to Europe.
Equities have traded in the red throughout the morning, with Euro Stoxx lower by 1.2%, although with the downside in equities failing to filter through to any significant price action in fixed income. Bunds are flat on the day and continue to trade in the tight range between 162.50 and 162.25.
In Fx, it has been a mixed session in FX, but one which again is to the detriment of the USD as the index is pressed down to fresh 6 month+ lows on the back of another down-leg in USD/JPY. Losses in London saw 107.00 taken out, but ahead of 106.50, exotic protective bids are helping contain the sell-off, albeit temporarily so as yet. EUR/USD has been propelled higher accordingly, having adopted a strong bid tone in recent sessions. Earlier gains extended through the pre 1.1400 top seen over the ECB press conference last week, and despite running into strong offers above here, the pullback is contained ahead of 1.1350, with better than expected Q1 GDP in the Euro zone now aiding the bid. This has also helped EUR/GBP recover a little, with Cable now only managing to match the early Feb high at 1.4667 before retracing back through 1.4600. Bids in the mid 1.4550's supporting for now. Commodities still recovering amid the backdrop of recent jitters in equity markets. Oil continues to power north to help maintain USD/CAD pressure on 1.2500. Strong bids coming in ahead of this but sellers keen ahead of 1.2550.
Looking at regional markets, Asia traded mixed amid holiday thinned trade and a cautious tone following Wall St. losses, where an Apple sell-off and weak US GDP dampened sentiment. However, ASX 200 (+0.4%) edged higher underpinned by commodity strength in which WTI broke above USD 46/bbl.
Elsewhere, the Shanghai Comp (-0.3%) was subdued after further discouraging earnings in which PetroChina posted its first ever quarterly loss and ICBC reported lacklustre growth as well as an increase in NPL's, while the PBoC also conducted a net CNY 290b1n drain. Finally, Japanese markets were shut for Showa Day public holiday.
日岩手縣兩牌子乾冬菇含微量輻射
on.cc東網專訊
【on.cc東網專訊】 食物環境衞生署食物安全中心今日在進口層面，發現兩個品牌共4個日本進口乾冬菇樣本含微量輻射，有關產品沒有流入市面，中心正與有關進口商跟進事件。
涉事產品包括均來自日本岩手縣的丸晶牌及玉花牌乾冬菇，兩款產品均為每包3公斤裝。
食安中心發言人表示，輻射檢測結果顯示4個乾冬菇樣本中，其中3個樣本分別每公斤含6至10貝可的銫-134及37至64貝可的銫-137，另一樣本則每公斤含40貝可的銫-137。
不過，有關樣本檢出的輻射水平，沒有超出《食品法典委員會》突發性核事故或放射性事故後受污染食物中，放射性核素每公斤1000貝可銫-134及銫-137的指引限值。
【on.cc東網專訊】 食物環境衞生署食物安全中心今日在進口層面，發現兩個品牌共4個日本進口乾冬菇樣本含微量輻射，有關產品沒有流入市面，中心正與有關進口商跟進事件。
涉事產品包括均來自日本岩手縣的丸晶牌及玉花牌乾冬菇，兩款產品均為每包3公斤裝。
食安中心發言人表示，輻射檢測結果顯示4個乾冬菇樣本中，其中3個樣本分別每公斤含6至10貝可的銫-134及37至64貝可的銫-137，另一樣本則每公斤含40貝可的銫-137。
不過，有關樣本檢出的輻射水平，沒有超出《食品法典委員會》突發性核事故或放射性事故後受污染食物中，放射性核素每公斤1000貝可銫-134及銫-137的指引限值。
埃利安：日央行墮「塔西陀陷阱」 股市等死
on.cc東網專訊
【on.cc東網專訊】 日本央行昨日又一次令市場驚嚇，令日圓匯價大幅上揚，據外國傳媒報道，早於去年4月已高呼「現金為王」、去年7月呼籲投資者不要再買股、言論一直較中肯的 安聯集團首席經濟顧問、Pimco前第2把手埃利安表示，日本央行陷入了一個陷阱，其政策判斷一再失誤，政策信譽也因此不斷受損，這可能令日本的經濟困境進一步加深。
埃利安指出，現時投資者最值得留意的是，無論日本央行採取甚麼措施，市場的反應也是顯示央行做錯了。上次會議日本央行採取過多措施，反而導致日圓升值，這次日本央行維持利率不變，但還是出現了相同結果。何解會這樣？
埃利安表示，日本央行明顯已陷入了政策措施效果適得其反的魔咒，這主因是其政策信譽不彰，陷入了所謂「塔西陀陷阱(Tacitus Trap)」，下一個掉進這個陷阱的可能是歐央行，緊隨其後就是聯儲局。所謂「塔西陀陷阱」，即政府或公共機構在一再失信喪失公眾信譽之後，其任何政策措 施都會招致民間的反向回應，即使這樣的措施本身是正確的。
埃利安警告，不要輕視今次日圓上漲，日本是全球的縮影，未來市場將逐漸不相信其他央行的行動，股市勢必大幅動盪，而不是波動，呼籲投資者繼續「現金為王」。
回顧埃利安早於3月發表驚人預測，指出全球經濟處於「丁字路口(T-junction)」，料未來3年內50%機會崩潰；50%機會重生，當時已呼籲投資者持現金。
【on.cc東網專訊】 日本央行昨日又一次令市場驚嚇，令日圓匯價大幅上揚，據外國傳媒報道，早於去年4月已高呼「現金為王」、去年7月呼籲投資者不要再買股、言論一直較中肯的 安聯集團首席經濟顧問、Pimco前第2把手埃利安表示，日本央行陷入了一個陷阱，其政策判斷一再失誤，政策信譽也因此不斷受損，這可能令日本的經濟困境進一步加深。
埃利安指出，現時投資者最值得留意的是，無論日本央行採取甚麼措施，市場的反應也是顯示央行做錯了。上次會議日本央行採取過多措施，反而導致日圓升值，這次日本央行維持利率不變，但還是出現了相同結果。何解會這樣？
埃利安表示，日本央行明顯已陷入了政策措施效果適得其反的魔咒，這主因是其政策信譽不彰，陷入了所謂「塔西陀陷阱(Tacitus Trap)」，下一個掉進這個陷阱的可能是歐央行，緊隨其後就是聯儲局。所謂「塔西陀陷阱」，即政府或公共機構在一再失信喪失公眾信譽之後，其任何政策措 施都會招致民間的反向回應，即使這樣的措施本身是正確的。
埃利安警告，不要輕視今次日圓上漲，日本是全球的縮影，未來市場將逐漸不相信其他央行的行動，股市勢必大幅動盪，而不是波動，呼籲投資者繼續「現金為王」。
回顧埃利安早於3月發表驚人預測，指出全球經濟處於「丁字路口(T-junction)」，料未來3年內50%機會崩潰；50%機會重生，當時已呼籲投資者持現金。
恒指收跌320點 內銀捱沽 油股跳水
on.cc東網專訊
【on.cc東網專訊】 港股在4月最後一個交易日跌超過300點，全個月就累升291點，連升2個月。恒生指數跟隨外圍低開172點後跌幅擴大，最多跌過365點，低見 21,023點，逼近20天線(20,986點)有支持，大市跌幅收窄，並於21,000點樓上橫行，收市報21,067點，跌320點或1.5%。國企 指數跌穿9,000點，收報8,939點，跌121點或1.34%。主板全日成交606億元，港股通餘額99.61億人民幣；滬股通餘額125.19億人 民幣。
恒指全個星期跌400點，跌幅1.86%。4月就累升291點，升幅1.4%，連升2個月。國指全周跌181點或1.98%；4月累跌64點或0.7%。
金利豐證券研究部執行董事黃德几表示，基於「五窮六絕」，加上日本央行出乎意料未有再放水，對市場構成負面影響，相信港股仍有回落空間，恒指有機會試穿20天線，而較大的支持將會在100天線，約20,400點至20,500點水平。
對於近日相繼公布的內銀股業績，他認為無甚驚喜，並指現階段主要關注板塊前景及盈利能力。由於內銀股不良貸款的上升趨勢未見改善，加上欠缺盈利增長動力，故估值難有上升空間。
多隻股份公布季績後都回吐，工行(01398
)及中行(03988)撥備覆蓋率齊跌穿150%的紅線水平，收市跌1.4%及1.6%。收市後派成績表的建行(00939)跌1.6%。交行(03328)就跌近3%。季績較佳的招行(03968)反彈2.1%。
石油股公布季績後回吐，中石油首季勁蝕137億人民幣，收市跌3.5%；中海油(00883)首季收入跌逾3成，跌2.3%；中石化(00386)多賺2倍，但跟跌近1.2%。中海油服(02883)就跌近4%。
香港私樓潛在供應量達9.2萬伙創有紀錄新高，地產股有沽壓，恒地(00012)收市跌3%；九倉(00004)跌2.6%；信置(00083)跌2%；長實地產(01113)跌1.5%；新地(00016)跌近1%。
【on.cc東網專訊】 港股在4月最後一個交易日跌超過300點，全個月就累升291點，連升2個月。恒生指數跟隨外圍低開172點後跌幅擴大，最多跌過365點，低見 21,023點，逼近20天線(20,986點)有支持，大市跌幅收窄，並於21,000點樓上橫行，收市報21,067點，跌320點或1.5%。國企 指數跌穿9,000點，收報8,939點，跌121點或1.34%。主板全日成交606億元，港股通餘額99.61億人民幣；滬股通餘額125.19億人 民幣。
恒指全個星期跌400點，跌幅1.86%。4月就累升291點，升幅1.4%，連升2個月。國指全周跌181點或1.98%；4月累跌64點或0.7%。
金利豐證券研究部執行董事黃德几表示，基於「五窮六絕」，加上日本央行出乎意料未有再放水，對市場構成負面影響，相信港股仍有回落空間，恒指有機會試穿20天線，而較大的支持將會在100天線，約20,400點至20,500點水平。
對於近日相繼公布的內銀股業績，他認為無甚驚喜，並指現階段主要關注板塊前景及盈利能力。由於內銀股不良貸款的上升趨勢未見改善，加上欠缺盈利增長動力，故估值難有上升空間。
多隻股份公布季績後都回吐，工行(01398
)及中行(03988)撥備覆蓋率齊跌穿150%的紅線水平，收市跌1.4%及1.6%。收市後派成績表的建行(00939)跌1.6%。交行(03328)就跌近3%。季績較佳的招行(03968)反彈2.1%。石油股公布季績後回吐，中石油首季勁蝕137億人民幣，收市跌3.5%；中海油(00883
)首季收入跌逾3成，跌2.3%；中石化(00386)多賺2倍，但跟跌近1.2%。中海油服(02883)就跌近4%。香港私樓潛在供應量達9.2萬伙創有紀錄新高，地產股有沽壓，恒地(00012
)收市跌3%；九倉(00004)跌2.6%；信置(00083)跌2%；長實地產(01113)跌1.5%；新地(00016)跌近1%。
Money Honey：港人痛苦高到「數」唔掂
money18.on.cc
香港人生活有幾艱苦？最簡單而可量化的答案，是將通脹加上失業率，得出痛苦指數(Misery Index)。以香港3月份通脹3%，以及首季失業率3.4%來推算，指數是6.4%，但上月失業情況較年初已明顯惡化，港人近月的痛苦程度已提高，但未來日子或更苦。
明年是97年亞洲金融風暴廿周年，香港經濟於97年中還未正面受襲，痛苦指數已高達8.6%，當時失業率雖低至2.2%，但單是通脹已高達6.4%，即是目前整體痛苦指數水平。單從數字來看，香港現時的痛苦程度遠不及金融風暴的前夕，但港人已嗌晒救命。
香港上月住宅樓價指數跌至270.2點，較去年9月高位的306.1點，累跌近12%，跌幅唔細，但港人交租和買樓壓力減輕了嗎？沒有，或唔多覺。只要回溯至97年10月樓市「高位」，當時港人炒樓炒到天昏地暗，但其實樓價指數只有172.9點，港樓價現時較當月高出56%！
經濟學家用痛苦指數去量度痛苦，得出按年的變化，卻沒有考慮到痛苦是可以積累的，當橫跨10年，甚至20年去計算，港人整體財富即使膨脹起來，但痛苦也與日俱增。數字是充滿盲點的工具，港人有苦自己知。
財經分析員Money Honey
香港人生活有幾艱苦？最簡單而可量化的答案，是將通脹加上失業率，得出痛苦指數(Misery Index)。以香港3月份通脹3%，以及首季失業率3.4%來推算，指數是6.4%，但上月失業情況較年初已明顯惡化，港人近月的痛苦程度已提高，但未來日子或更苦。
明年是97年亞洲金融風暴廿周年，香港經濟於97年中還未正面受襲，痛苦指數已高達8.6%，當時失業率雖低至2.2%，但單是通脹已高達6.4%，即是目前整體痛苦指數水平。單從數字來看，香港現時的痛苦程度遠不及金融風暴的前夕，但港人已嗌晒救命。
香港上月住宅樓價指數跌至270.2點，較去年9月高位的306.1點，累跌近12%，跌幅唔細，但港人交租和買樓壓力減輕了嗎？沒有，或唔多覺。只要回溯至97年10月樓市「高位」，當時港人炒樓炒到天昏地暗，但其實樓價指數只有172.9點，港樓價現時較當月高出56%！
經濟學家用痛苦指數去量度痛苦，得出按年的變化，卻沒有考慮到痛苦是可以積累的，當橫跨10年，甚至20年去計算，港人整體財富即使膨脹起來，但痛苦也與日俱增。數字是充滿盲點的工具，港人有苦自己知。
財經分析員Money Honey
樓市噩夢重臨 首季負資產暴升14倍
on.cc東網專訊
【on.cc東網專訊】 負資產宗數按季大幅飆升！金管局公布，今年首季負資產住宅按揭貸款宗數為1432宗，按季大增14倍；涉及住宅貸款金額為49.19億港元。當局表示，這些個案主要涉及按揭保險計劃的貸款和銀行職員的住屋按揭貸款。
近月樓價拾級而下，令負資產再度重臨。事實上，在去年第4季，負資產住宅按揭宗數為95宗，為自2014年第3季以來再次出現；其時涉及的金額為4.18億港元。
【on.cc東網專訊】 負資產宗數按季大幅飆升！金管局公布，今年首季負資產住宅按揭貸款宗數為1432宗，按季大增14倍；涉及住宅貸款金額為49.19億港元。當局表示，這些個案主要涉及按揭保險計劃的貸款和銀行職員的住屋按揭貸款。
近月樓價拾級而下，令負資產再度重臨。事實上，在去年第4季，負資產住宅按揭宗數為95宗，為自2014年第3季以來再次出現；其時涉及的金額為4.18億港元。
翹楚論樓：經濟寒冬零售物業無運行？
money18.on.cc
最近看到零售市道持續轉差，1月份零售業總銷貨值按年跌幅達2成，成為近17年以來最差，而1至3月份失業率亦升至3.4%。雖然零售業統計數據和失業率都強差人意，再加上一、二線零售物業租金不斷下跌，預計全年跌幅達10%。
縱然如此，但民生商鋪及商場的買賣就不絕於耳，最近領展成功賣出7項商用物業就是一個好的例子。
那究竟怎樣解讀市場對零售物業的看法？其實，以往大部分商場不是發展商就是房地產信託基金所擁有，即使是商鋪，也往往落入本地投資者手上，很多機構投資者或海外投資者都只能望梅止渴，難得現在有機會入市，當然不會放過。
可能會問不怕蝕？筆者覺得是兩睇，現在零售市道差是鐵一般的事實，但租金回調下，連帶售價也下跌也是事實，再者，民生商店都是照顧附近居民的日用消費，當中又以餐飲為主，即使外送服務可以線上化，但總不能只有中央廚房，沒有餐廳吧。
其 實，近年很多線上公司都轉戰線下，如大家熟悉的流動應用程式供應商Line，就在世界各地，包括香港開設線上動畫人物的精品店，而內地的健康海鮮餐飲「虎 奔夜送」及時尚休閒百貨連鎖店「2358」也紛紛跑到線下，往後希望零售物業能有複式增長確實很難，但餐飲、線上服務機構，以致體驗店等都將會是往後零售 物業客戶的新主流。
高力國際估價及諮詢服務亞洲區行政董事 張翹楚
最近看到零售市道持續轉差，1月份零售業總銷貨值按年跌幅達2成，成為近17年以來最差，而1至3月份失業率亦升至3.4%。雖然零售業統計數據和失業率都強差人意，再加上一、二線零售物業租金不斷下跌，預計全年跌幅達10%。
縱然如此，但民生商鋪及商場的買賣就不絕於耳，最近領展成功賣出7項商用物業就是一個好的例子。
那究竟怎樣解讀市場對零售物業的看法？其實，以往大部分商場不是發展商就是房地產信託基金所擁有，即使是商鋪，也往往落入本地投資者手上，很多機構投資者或海外投資者都只能望梅止渴，難得現在有機會入市，當然不會放過。
可能會問不怕蝕？筆者覺得是兩睇，現在零售市道差是鐵一般的事實，但租金回調下，連帶售價也下跌也是事實，再者，民生商店都是照顧附近居民的日用消費，當中又以餐飲為主，即使外送服務可以線上化，但總不能只有中央廚房，沒有餐廳吧。
其 實，近年很多線上公司都轉戰線下，如大家熟悉的流動應用程式供應商Line，就在世界各地，包括香港開設線上動畫人物的精品店，而內地的健康海鮮餐飲「虎 奔夜送」及時尚休閒百貨連鎖店「2358」也紛紛跑到線下，往後希望零售物業能有複式增長確實很難，但餐飲、線上服務機構，以致體驗店等都將會是往後零售 物業客戶的新主流。
高力國際估價及諮詢服務亞洲區行政董事 張翹楚
陳德霖︰資金遲早外流 香港樓市仍需觀察
money18.on.cc
金管局總裁陳德霖預計，今年宏觀經濟不確定性加大；考慮到美國的利率決定，資金遲早會外流。
陳德霖稱，香港金融系統有足夠的彈性來應對資金流動，港元銀行間利率變化不應過快；金管局將密切監控銀行貸款組合資產的質量；並敦促銀行在管理信貸風險時保持警惕。
他又指，需要更長時間觀察香港房地產市場；將密切監控房地產市場。
金管局總裁陳德霖預計，今年宏觀經濟不確定性加大；考慮到美國的利率決定，資金遲早會外流。
陳德霖稱，香港金融系統有足夠的彈性來應對資金流動，港元銀行間利率變化不應過快；金管局將密切監控銀行貸款組合資產的質量；並敦促銀行在管理信貸風險時保持警惕。
他又指，需要更長時間觀察香港房地產市場；將密切監控房地產市場。
Peter Boockvar – Got Gold?
kingworldnews.com
With gold surging more than $20 and silver up more than 30 cents, today Peter Boockvar asks the all-important question to investors, “Got gold?”
Peter Boockvar: So let me get this straight, on January 29th the BoJ surprised markets by moving to a negative interest rate of .1% on bank deposits and the move completely back fires as the yen goes from 121 to 108 in the following months. The Nikkei cracks by 15% in two weeks. The only beneficiary were JGB’s. The BoJ then decides overnight not to push deeper with this policy in a show of patience to see how the January move plays out and maybe not to panic the markets again and the yen rips further and the Nikkei falls almost 4%…
Peter Boockvar continues: The pain trade in particular from January were in the Japanese banks due to the crushing of their margins and the penalty rate so what does Mitsubishi UFJ do overnight on a pause in negative rate policy, it falls 6% on top of the 5% drop in the two prior days. Mizuho Financial plunged by 6.5%. I GIVE UP! JGB’s had the muted but mixed response as the 10 year yield rose 2.5 bps while the 30 year yield fell by 5.5 bps.
Bottom line, markets are now behaving worse than spoiled little children as now it’s getting even tougher to gauge what they really want from our central bankers that are losing credibility with their monetary reputations every day. I’ll venture to guess that many are realizing that we are at the end of the road in this cycle of modern day monetary extremism notwithstanding Kuroda’s belief that he doesn’t “think there are limits to monetary policy measures.”
For the action in Japanese banks today, investors were likely disappointed the BoJ didn’t go the way of the ECB in paying them to lend. Got gold?
As for the Fed after yesterday’s statement, I’ll say to them: Your mandate isn’t to have a perfect world. That only exists in fairly tales, dreams and in your econometric models.
Japan also reported important economic data overnight. Headline CPI for March fell .1% m/o/m vs the estimate of unchanged. The core rate was higher by .7% y/o/y, also one tenth less than expected and down from .8% in February. The core rate has been in a .7-.9% range for the past 8 months which is the highest level since the late 1990’s not including the VAT related spike in ’14-‘15. The BoJ doesn’t realize that inflation is a symptom, not the disease.
The Japanese unemployment rate fell one tenth to 3.2%, matching the lowest level since 1997 but the composition was not good as the number of employed fell by 130k and 180k left the labor market. The jobs to applicant ratio rose to 1.30 vs the estimate of 1.28 and that is the most since 1991. The labor market is tight as a drum based on this figure but the mix remains an issue due to the many part timers who face off against the entrenched full timers.
Overall household spending in Japan in March fell 5.3% y/o/y, worse than the estimate of down 4.1%. Industrial production on the other hand improved by 3.6% m/o/m in March which was better than the forecast of up 2.8%. The economic data out of Japan today remains very uneven.
Economic confidence in the eurozone in April improved to 103.9 from 103 in March, 103.9 in February and 105 in January. That was a touch above the estimate of 103.4 as manufacturing, services, construction and the consumer rose m/o/m. Retail sentiment fell slightly. The European economy is slow but steady. The euro is higher but likely being dragged by the move in the yen and European stock markets are certainly moving in concert with Japan and the S&P futures.
Germany reported better than expected labor market data as the number of unemployed in April fell by 16k instead of remaining unchanged as expected. The unemployment rate held at the lowest level since reunification. The Germans we know are dealing with a massive influx of migrants and a high absorption rate of them into the work force would do wonders for their economy. Unfortunately, non European refugees saw a rise in joblessness in April but hopefully this will change and domestic demand can offset the challenges of soft global trade that their export heavy economy is so reliant on.
After seeing a modest fall in the bull/bear spread off the widest since August in the weekly II measure of stock market sentiment, the individual investor AAII survey got very neutral. Bulls fell 6 points to 27.4 after rising by 5.5 points last week. Bears rose by 4.7 points to 28.6, the most since March 3rd while those that are Neutral rose by 1.4 points to 44 and has been above 40 for 7 straight weeks. With the US stock market very expensive again and seemingly only reliant on the lack of rate hikes from the Fed in the face of falling earnings and an economic growth rate that will likely have a one handle this year, there is very little margin of safety.
King World News note: Many investors have been waiting for a major pullback to buy the high quality mining shares. Others have been selling into the rallies and losing their positions. This bull market is doing what bull markets do, it’s shaking out weak hands and not letting people in by giving them anything more than very short and shallow pullbacks (see early stages of the mining stock bull market advance on the chart below).
It’s also important to note that the public is not invested in the mining space in any way.
As for silver, there is trouble ahead in terms of global supply. This should make silver’s advance quite exciting in terms of future price gains (see chart below).
The bottom line is that there is an enormous amount of money that is still due to enter this bull market in gold, silver and the high quality mining shares, it will just have to do so at much higher price levels.
With gold surging more than $20 and silver up more than 30 cents, today Peter Boockvar asks the all-important question to investors, “Got gold?”
Peter Boockvar: So let me get this straight, on January 29th the BoJ surprised markets by moving to a negative interest rate of .1% on bank deposits and the move completely back fires as the yen goes from 121 to 108 in the following months. The Nikkei cracks by 15% in two weeks. The only beneficiary were JGB’s. The BoJ then decides overnight not to push deeper with this policy in a show of patience to see how the January move plays out and maybe not to panic the markets again and the yen rips further and the Nikkei falls almost 4%…
Peter Boockvar continues: The pain trade in particular from January were in the Japanese banks due to the crushing of their margins and the penalty rate so what does Mitsubishi UFJ do overnight on a pause in negative rate policy, it falls 6% on top of the 5% drop in the two prior days. Mizuho Financial plunged by 6.5%. I GIVE UP! JGB’s had the muted but mixed response as the 10 year yield rose 2.5 bps while the 30 year yield fell by 5.5 bps.
Bottom line, markets are now behaving worse than spoiled little children as now it’s getting even tougher to gauge what they really want from our central bankers that are losing credibility with their monetary reputations every day. I’ll venture to guess that many are realizing that we are at the end of the road in this cycle of modern day monetary extremism notwithstanding Kuroda’s belief that he doesn’t “think there are limits to monetary policy measures.”
For the action in Japanese banks today, investors were likely disappointed the BoJ didn’t go the way of the ECB in paying them to lend. Got gold?
As for the Fed after yesterday’s statement, I’ll say to them: Your mandate isn’t to have a perfect world. That only exists in fairly tales, dreams and in your econometric models.
Japan also reported important economic data overnight. Headline CPI for March fell .1% m/o/m vs the estimate of unchanged. The core rate was higher by .7% y/o/y, also one tenth less than expected and down from .8% in February. The core rate has been in a .7-.9% range for the past 8 months which is the highest level since the late 1990’s not including the VAT related spike in ’14-‘15. The BoJ doesn’t realize that inflation is a symptom, not the disease.
The Japanese unemployment rate fell one tenth to 3.2%, matching the lowest level since 1997 but the composition was not good as the number of employed fell by 130k and 180k left the labor market. The jobs to applicant ratio rose to 1.30 vs the estimate of 1.28 and that is the most since 1991. The labor market is tight as a drum based on this figure but the mix remains an issue due to the many part timers who face off against the entrenched full timers.
Overall household spending in Japan in March fell 5.3% y/o/y, worse than the estimate of down 4.1%. Industrial production on the other hand improved by 3.6% m/o/m in March which was better than the forecast of up 2.8%. The economic data out of Japan today remains very uneven.
Economic confidence in the eurozone in April improved to 103.9 from 103 in March, 103.9 in February and 105 in January. That was a touch above the estimate of 103.4 as manufacturing, services, construction and the consumer rose m/o/m. Retail sentiment fell slightly. The European economy is slow but steady. The euro is higher but likely being dragged by the move in the yen and European stock markets are certainly moving in concert with Japan and the S&P futures.
Germany reported better than expected labor market data as the number of unemployed in April fell by 16k instead of remaining unchanged as expected. The unemployment rate held at the lowest level since reunification. The Germans we know are dealing with a massive influx of migrants and a high absorption rate of them into the work force would do wonders for their economy. Unfortunately, non European refugees saw a rise in joblessness in April but hopefully this will change and domestic demand can offset the challenges of soft global trade that their export heavy economy is so reliant on.
After seeing a modest fall in the bull/bear spread off the widest since August in the weekly II measure of stock market sentiment, the individual investor AAII survey got very neutral. Bulls fell 6 points to 27.4 after rising by 5.5 points last week. Bears rose by 4.7 points to 28.6, the most since March 3rd while those that are Neutral rose by 1.4 points to 44 and has been above 40 for 7 straight weeks. With the US stock market very expensive again and seemingly only reliant on the lack of rate hikes from the Fed in the face of falling earnings and an economic growth rate that will likely have a one handle this year, there is very little margin of safety.
King World News note: Many investors have been waiting for a major pullback to buy the high quality mining shares. Others have been selling into the rallies and losing their positions. This bull market is doing what bull markets do, it’s shaking out weak hands and not letting people in by giving them anything more than very short and shallow pullbacks (see early stages of the mining stock bull market advance on the chart below).
It’s also important to note that the public is not invested in the mining space in any way.
As for silver, there is trouble ahead in terms of global supply. This should make silver’s advance quite exciting in terms of future price gains (see chart below).
The bottom line is that there is an enormous amount of money that is still due to enter this bull market in gold, silver and the high quality mining shares, it will just have to do so at much higher price levels.
Top Money Manager Says Gold And Silver Are Destined For A Historic Mania!
kingworldnews.com
Today one of the top money managers in the world told King World News that gold and silver are destined for a historic mania!
Stephen Leeb: “Right now I am focused on gold and silver, particularly gold and silver stocks. Many of these stocks have already tripled in price and some have gone up much more than that. I understand that the massive gains in the high quality mining companies give people pause, and they worry about whether or not to sell. But if I’m right, Eric, about there being a massive bull market in gold, can you imagine how high these stocks will go?
Meaning, you haven’t seen anything yet when it comes to the shares. By the time this bull market is near its conclusion it will be an internet mania type of atmosphere for the mining shares…
As far as silver goes, Eric, silver is not only a monetary metals but it’s also an industrial metal. And the move to solar all over the world, especially in China, is going to create massive demand for physical silver. China in the next 5 or 6 years will probably need more silver just for their solar panels than the world is able to mine each year.
Eric, I’m so excited that this is all coming together now for long-term investors. King World News has really encouraged people to hang on to their positions and not lose them in the early stages of this new bull market. Once people lose their positions, sometimes it’s really hard for them to get back in because prices are so much higher.
The Best Performing Asset This Century
But I also get angry because why are financial planners and Wall Street ignoring the best performing asset this century, which has been gold? Yes, gold had a huge correction but I’m counting that correction. If you look at gold from the year 2000 to now, it has killed the stock market, it has killed bonds, and every other asset class. Yet gold is not on anyone’s radar.
King World News readers and listeners are the exceptions.
But it’s not too late for investors to purchase anything gold and silver related. As I said earlier, we haven’t seen anything yet. Before this bull market is over, it will be one for the history books.”
Today one of the top money managers in the world told King World News that gold and silver are destined for a historic mania!
Stephen Leeb: “Right now I am focused on gold and silver, particularly gold and silver stocks. Many of these stocks have already tripled in price and some have gone up much more than that. I understand that the massive gains in the high quality mining companies give people pause, and they worry about whether or not to sell. But if I’m right, Eric, about there being a massive bull market in gold, can you imagine how high these stocks will go?
Meaning, you haven’t seen anything yet when it comes to the shares. By the time this bull market is near its conclusion it will be an internet mania type of atmosphere for the mining shares…
As far as silver goes, Eric, silver is not only a monetary metals but it’s also an industrial metal. And the move to solar all over the world, especially in China, is going to create massive demand for physical silver. China in the next 5 or 6 years will probably need more silver just for their solar panels than the world is able to mine each year.
Eric, I’m so excited that this is all coming together now for long-term investors. King World News has really encouraged people to hang on to their positions and not lose them in the early stages of this new bull market. Once people lose their positions, sometimes it’s really hard for them to get back in because prices are so much higher.
The Best Performing Asset This Century
But I also get angry because why are financial planners and Wall Street ignoring the best performing asset this century, which has been gold? Yes, gold had a huge correction but I’m counting that correction. If you look at gold from the year 2000 to now, it has killed the stock market, it has killed bonds, and every other asset class. Yet gold is not on anyone’s radar.
King World News readers and listeners are the exceptions.
But it’s not too late for investors to purchase anything gold and silver related. As I said earlier, we haven’t seen anything yet. Before this bull market is over, it will be one for the history books.”
Are the Metals & Dow Aligning?
Sling-Shot 要來了, 解為大波動 ! 大家要坐穩了 !
本人認為來緊3個月是股跌金銀價升 !
www.armstrongeconomics.comQUESTION:
All three are moving together since mid-January. Does that mean all three are already aligned and a lift is now possible? Or do we go to retest the January lows first?
ANSWER:
This is the preparation for the Sling-Shot Move which is coming. Everything is pushing it to the limit. We are carrying the weight of the world around on this move. This is how you will trap people buying highs or selling the lows. They will make their judgment based upon emotions. You will see extreme moves in both directions. Markets are NEVER that forgiving. They strive to wipe everyone out on both sides and the more arrogant they are, the bigger the loss.
We should see the metals push higher trying to get closer to their 2015 highs. The question becomes; can they exceed 18.50 in silver and 1307 in gold? If not, then they two have done what the Dow has done. We achieved a minor Daily Bullish Reversal in silver and gold today, but a sell signal in the Dow. They are trending together, but still in opposite directions. So we can see that they are starting to align. The process is not yet finished.
Just look at this logically. It appears to be the four major elections coming (BREXIT, US President, French President, & Germany) hold the potential to turn that world we are carrying around completely upside down. If the British vote to exit, that can be devastating to the Euro and set off a wave of civil unrest demanding also to exit. That would benefit the dollar in a big way. What would that do to the metals? Would the Dow then recover from another retest of the support? The Euro begrudgingly holds on, but here too, trying to retest its 2015 high or at least the target reversal at the 11600 zone, is difficult to say the least.
We are getting there. What it takes is that collapse in confidence and we can see that where Bernie is frustrating Hillary and Trump leads the pack no matter what they cry about or conspire. People are just losing it when it comes to government. Trump and Sanders are bringing more people out to vote than ever before. Why? They all know something is wrong. They may disagree at to what it is. But the universal knowledge here is that something is just not right. This is the seed we need to fertilize to get that Sling-Shot.
滬金交所黃金持倉22噸
文匯報
香港文匯報訊（記者 李昌鴻 深圳報道）
上海黃金交易所副總經理宋鈺勤昨天出席活動時透露，2016年以來，隨着黃金價格的階段性上漲，內地金價從2015年12月31日的每克220.86元人民幣，一直到2016年4月26日，升至每克258.4元，漲幅超過了15%。
金價今年累漲15%
今年以來全球經濟形勢不佳，黃金投資成為熱點。宋鈺勤表示，包括中國在內的各個中央銀行都在加速增設
黃金儲備，截至今年3月底，中國的黃金儲備為1,797噸，比2015年6月底公佈的1,658噸增加了139噸，全球各地的投資者也踴躍購買和配置黃
金。世界最大的黃金ETF SPDR今年以來規模也增長了近170噸。
黃金持倉年增1.2倍
截至2016年4月26日，上海金交所黃金總持倉量已經達到了22噸，較2015年增長120.24%。博時基金總裁江向陽表示，今年3月，博時黃金ETF規模逾22億元人民幣，是全市場規模最大的黃金ETF產品基金。
樓價跌勢料未完 負資產年底或增至400宗
on.cc東網專訊
【on.cc東網專訊】 金管局將於今日公布首季負資產數據，由於負資產個案於去年底重現，首季數據令人關注。隨樓價下跌，分析預計首季及未來數季的負資產個案會繼續增加，料到年底上攀到300至400宗，但數量仍處於低水平，對實質經濟影響不大。
截至去年底，香港負資產住宅按揭貸款宗數有95宗，涉資4.18億元，是自2014年第3季後，負資產個案首次重臨香港。
2003年沙士肆虐，香港負資產個案曾高達10.56萬宗，涉及未償還貸款達1,650億元，共耗時近10年，至2012年底第3季才被完全消化。
上商研究部主管林俊泓表示，近期樓市跌勢加速，相信首季負資產個案會加快上升，且會是中長期趨勢。現時市場普遍估計樓市今年跌10%，樓價由年初至今下調約 4%，即樓價仍有下跌空間，預期負資產個案將隨市步升，料至年底至少有300宗至400宗。不過，由於大部分業主已完成按揭供款，故相信1997年樓市與負資產的惡性循環難重現。
【on.cc東網專訊】 金管局將於今日公布首季負資產數據，由於負資產個案於去年底重現，首季數據令人關注。隨樓價下跌，分析預計首季及未來數季的負資產個案會繼續增加，料到年底上攀到300至400宗，但數量仍處於低水平，對實質經濟影響不大。
截至去年底，香港負資產住宅按揭貸款宗數有95宗，涉資4.18億元，是自2014年第3季後，負資產個案首次重臨香港。
2003年沙士肆虐，香港負資產個案曾高達10.56萬宗，涉及未償還貸款達1,650億元，共耗時近10年，至2012年底第3季才被完全消化。
上商研究部主管林俊泓表示，近期樓市跌勢加速，相信首季負資產個案會加快上升，且會是中長期趨勢。現時市場普遍估計樓市今年跌10%，樓價由年初至今下調約 4%，即樓價仍有下跌空間，預期負資產個案將隨市步升，料至年底至少有300宗至400宗。不過，由於大部分業主已完成按揭供款，故相信1997年樓市與負資產的惡性循環難重現。
港私樓未來3年供應達9.2萬伙 創紀錄新高
on.cc東網專訊
【on.cc東網專訊】 運輸及房屋局數據顯示，首季止，香港私樓施工量達1.33萬伙；未來3至4年的潛在供應量，由之前8.7萬伙升至9.2萬伙，創有紀錄以來新高。至於落成量則有1800個，按季少47%。
數字反映未來3至4年可提供私樓單位包括已落成樓宇但仍未售出單位6,000伙，建築中單位76,000伙，減去已預售11,000伙，以及已批出土地並可隨時動工的項目21,000伙。
【on.cc東網專訊】 運輸及房屋局數據顯示，首季止，香港私樓施工量達1.33萬伙；未來3至4年的潛在供應量，由之前8.7萬伙升至9.2萬伙，創有紀錄以來新高。至於落成量則有1800個，按季少47%。
數字反映未來3至4年可提供私樓單位包括已落成樓宇但仍未售出單位6,000伙，建築中單位76,000伙，減去已預售11,000伙，以及已批出土地並可隨時動工的項目21,000伙。
2016年4月28日 星期四
Stock Market – What Next?
www.armstrongeconomics.com
QUESTION:
Mr. Armstrong; At the WEC you said stay in cash not debt. You also said the stock market would dive in the first quarter the turn back up. I have followed the reversals all the way up and caught probably 80% of the move. Thank you. My question is simply are knocking of heaven’s door? Is it time to breakout or are we consolidating? I have found the Socrates preview for attendees a real asset for it has no agenda but forecasting.
Cheers;
B from UK
ANSWER:
Well put. Stay in mostly cash far away from fixed income. Yes we are knocking on heaven’s door as they say in the Dow. The GMW has done a pretty good job for this rally. The Daily Bullish Reversal in the Dow that is important stands at 18137.50. We reached 18167,63 intraday, but could not close about that Reversal. It is possible to break through to new highs on the cash index. However, to do so we need that daily closing just to test the former high established last May at 18351.36. We need to exceed that high here in 2016 to imply we will continue to push higher.
Nevertheless, it is never wise to ANTICIPATE such breakouts because that is how people buy the high and lose a fortune. A daily close above 18010 will help warn that we may press high for a day. Keep in mind we are at the threshold in many markets. If we press higher after April,then we can see an early rally into June/July. But lift-off still appears to be next year in almost everything.
The issue seems to be CONFIDENCE. That must crack and when it does, this will be confirmed by the breakout in everything.
QUESTION:
Mr. Armstrong; At the WEC you said stay in cash not debt. You also said the stock market would dive in the first quarter the turn back up. I have followed the reversals all the way up and caught probably 80% of the move. Thank you. My question is simply are knocking of heaven’s door? Is it time to breakout or are we consolidating? I have found the Socrates preview for attendees a real asset for it has no agenda but forecasting.
Cheers;
B from UK
ANSWER:
Well put. Stay in mostly cash far away from fixed income. Yes we are knocking on heaven’s door as they say in the Dow. The GMW has done a pretty good job for this rally. The Daily Bullish Reversal in the Dow that is important stands at 18137.50. We reached 18167,63 intraday, but could not close about that Reversal. It is possible to break through to new highs on the cash index. However, to do so we need that daily closing just to test the former high established last May at 18351.36. We need to exceed that high here in 2016 to imply we will continue to push higher.
Nevertheless, it is never wise to ANTICIPATE such breakouts because that is how people buy the high and lose a fortune. A daily close above 18010 will help warn that we may press high for a day. Keep in mind we are at the threshold in many markets. If we press higher after April,then we can see an early rally into June/July. But lift-off still appears to be next year in almost everything.
The issue seems to be CONFIDENCE. That must crack and when it does, this will be confirmed by the breakout in everything.
五一咩境況：金行救亡 減免手工費等優惠齊出
去買飾金要留意每間店的飾金價格 !
on.cc東網專訊【on.cc東網專訊】 為吸引「五一」假期顧客消費，金飾商紛紛推出優惠救亡。繼六福(00590
)、周大福(01929)及周生生(00116)後，太子珠寶鐘錶亦擬推假期優惠，包括豁免金飾手工費。太子珠寶鐘錶主席鄧鉅明對《東網》記者表示，「推出較多優惠刺激銷情是在所難免，公司日內會開股東會傾假期優惠，包括豁免金飾手工費，又或者以送禮物形式回贈予顧客」。
他預計，五一假期銷情會較平日生意好，不過較往年的五一銷情仍要跌20%至30%，更指未來2至3年都難以見到零售有反彈機會。
周生生早前率先宣布，於五一假期間亦豁免金飾手工費，以吸引消費。
周大福則於4月22日推出足金手鐲、金條、金章手工費38折優惠，同時亦推出其他優惠，如母親節購物回贈、抽獎等。
六褔亦宣布，由4月22日至5月4日，所有黃金手鐲工費全免，其他黃白金手飾工費35折優惠。
收市10大要知：美今晚有GDP 道期現跌143
money18.on.cc
港股收市後，市場目光轉至香港時間今晚8時30分公布的美國首季GDP數據，道指期貨現跌143點。以下為「收市10大要知」新聞：
1、日本央行：維持量寬規模不變 圓匯急升
日 本央行以8:1的投票結果維持貨幣政策不變，貨幣基礎年增幅目標維持在80萬億日圓，另以7比2投票維持存款利率維持在-0.1%不變。美元兌日圓在日本 央行利率決定後，由111水平急跌至108.77日圓。每百日圓兌港元由6.9水平彈至7.1。現時美元兌日圓更低見107.92；每百日圓兌港元升至 7.14。
日本央行同時推後實現2%通脹目標的預期時間，日本央行表示，核心CPI可能在本財年上升0.5%，原先預期為上升0.8%，但有望在2017財年實現2%通脹目標；2017財年核心CPI料升1.7%，原預測為上升1.8%；2018財年核心CPI或升1.9%。
日本央行又下調經濟增長預期，當前財年實際GDP或增1.2%，此前預期為增1.5%；2017財年實際GDP可能增加0.1%，原先預期為增加0.3%；2018財年實際GDP料增長1.0%。
2、美首季GDP料僅增長0.7%
繼 聯儲局及日本央行公布議息結果後，市場今晚焦點落在香港時間晚上8時30分公布的美國首季經濟增長，經濟學家預計GDP僅增0.7%。市場尤其關注美國消 費者支出是否嚴重削減、商業投資可能連續第二季出現下滑、企業庫存會否過多。數據顯示，美國經濟衰退結束以來第一季GDP增長平均達0.8%，今次或許低 於平均數。
3、結算日恒指反覆靠穩 騰訊支撐大市
聯儲局不加息，惟日央行意外維持貨幣政策不變。港股期指結算日先升後回，恒生指 數高低波幅399點；午後在10天線水平窄幅整固，收市報21,388點，升26點或0.12%。國企指數收報9,060點，升23點或0.26%。主板 成交677億元，港股通餘額101.4億人民幣。
第一上海首席策略師葉尚志認為，港股短期走勢反覆偏穩，若能守穩21,000點水平，將會上望去年收市位21,914點。
4、滬綜指收跌8點 滬股通淨流入
人行今日放水1,100億元人民幣，內地股市先高後低，滬綜指全日跌8點或0.27%，收報2,945點；深成指跌24點或0.24%，以10,149點收市；滬深300指跌5點或0.17%，收報3,160點；而創業板指收市則獨升8點或0.4%，報2,155點。
2市主板成交跌2%，至逾4,300億元人民幣；滬股通錄餘逾128.48億元人民幣或98%，而每日額度為130億元人民幣，意味資金流入。
5、歐股跌近1% 空中巴士跌約半成
日本央行維持利率不變，拖累日股大跌，而油價從今年高位回落，歐股早段受壓，英國富時100指數報6,273點，跌46點或0.73%；法國CAC指數報4,518點，跌40點或0.89%；德國DAX指數報10,224點，跌75點或0.73%。
多 家歐洲銀行業績「走樣」，德銀首季純利按年跌58%至2.36億歐元，股價早段靠穩升0.51%；西班牙BBVA首季純利跌54%至7.09億歐元，股價 大跌5.86%；萊斯銀行股價跌2.73%，此前公司公布首季稅前溢利跌46%。另外，空中巴士跌近半成至4.84%，此前公司指首季純利按年跌50%； 奢侈品牌愛馬仕報告首季收入升6.1%，股價升2%。
6、工行首季盈利僅增0.59%
中國工商銀行(01398) 公布今年第一季業績，期內收入1,689億元人民幣，按年增加1.92%，錄得淨利潤747億元人民幣，按年增長0.59%。利息淨收入1,188.1億 元人民幣，按年下降5.17%；非利息收入501.82億元人民幣，按年增長23.83%，其中手續費及佣金淨收入434.85億元人民幣，按年增長 16.86%。
期內核心一級資本充足率12.87%，一級資本充足率13.45%，資本充足率14.66%，均滿足監管要求。不良貸款餘額為2,046.59億元；不良貸款率為1.66%；撥備覆蓋率為141.21%。
7、中海油首季收入跌30%
中國海洋石油(00883)公布，2016年第1季度營業收入258.19億元人民幣(下同)，按年跌29.68%；公司實現總淨產量1.243億桶油當量，按年增5.1%，主要受惠於中國海域2015年以來新投產油氣田帶來的產量貢獻。
同 期，公司未經審計的油氣銷售收入達約246.4億元，按年降30.7%，主因國際油價大跌。期內，公司的平均實現油價為每桶32.54美元，按年降 39.1%，與國際油價走勢基本一致。首季公司資本支出約96.9億元，按年跌39.2%，主因公司為應對低油價環境，進一步削減全年資本支出預算。
8、新盤專輯：SHOUSON PEAK新增置業優惠
新地(00016)旗下壽山村道Shouson Peak新增優惠，引入Premier House特選現金優惠付款計劃，按售價減4.5%，該優惠只適用於19E號屋的買家。
發展商昨日上載新銷售安排，周日(5月1日)將於先到先得發售19E號屋，該單位實用面積3,218方呎，價單售價逾2.774億元。
9、亞洲樓王：天匯銀主盤1.083億拍出
亞洲分層住宅呎價樓王的西半山天匯銀主盤，由世紀21測量師行負責拍賣，該天匯單位為30樓以上海景戶，4房雙套房間隔，實用面積約2,476方呎，現為銀行令及法院令單位，連1個車位開價9,800萬元。
單位每口叫價200萬元，獲承價5口至1.08億元，其後3度調減每口叫價，獲買家承價至1.082億元，最終以1.083億元售出，較開價高逾10%。據了解，該單位連車位購入價為1.377億元，跌價逾2成。
10、劈價瘋潮：雅利德樺臺劈6球 美孚削61萬
九龍屋苑連環劈價，更不乏豪宅物業，有新盤推售的何文田區，二手業主腳軟求售，荔枝角美孚新邨6期蘭秀道21號低層A室，實用面積701方呎，3房連套房間隔，2月底開價758萬元，放盤2個月累減61萬元，以697萬元易手，實用呎價9,943元。
何文田雅利德樺臺中層D室，實用面積1,116方呎，3房連套房間隔，以1,265萬元易手，實用呎價11,335元。上址去年以1,890萬元放盤，终累減625萬元，減幅達33%。
港股收市後，市場目光轉至香港時間今晚8時30分公布的美國首季GDP數據，道指期貨現跌143點。以下為「收市10大要知」新聞：
1、日本央行：維持量寬規模不變 圓匯急升
日 本央行以8:1的投票結果維持貨幣政策不變，貨幣基礎年增幅目標維持在80萬億日圓，另以7比2投票維持存款利率維持在-0.1%不變。美元兌日圓在日本 央行利率決定後，由111水平急跌至108.77日圓。每百日圓兌港元由6.9水平彈至7.1。現時美元兌日圓更低見107.92；每百日圓兌港元升至 7.14。
日本央行同時推後實現2%通脹目標的預期時間，日本央行表示，核心CPI可能在本財年上升0.5%，原先預期為上升0.8%，但有望在2017財年實現2%通脹目標；2017財年核心CPI料升1.7%，原預測為上升1.8%；2018財年核心CPI或升1.9%。
日本央行又下調經濟增長預期，當前財年實際GDP或增1.2%，此前預期為增1.5%；2017財年實際GDP可能增加0.1%，原先預期為增加0.3%；2018財年實際GDP料增長1.0%。
2、美首季GDP料僅增長0.7%
繼 聯儲局及日本央行公布議息結果後，市場今晚焦點落在香港時間晚上8時30分公布的美國首季經濟增長，經濟學家預計GDP僅增0.7%。市場尤其關注美國消 費者支出是否嚴重削減、商業投資可能連續第二季出現下滑、企業庫存會否過多。數據顯示，美國經濟衰退結束以來第一季GDP增長平均達0.8%，今次或許低 於平均數。
3、結算日恒指反覆靠穩 騰訊支撐大市
聯儲局不加息，惟日央行意外維持貨幣政策不變。港股期指結算日先升後回，恒生指 數高低波幅399點；午後在10天線水平窄幅整固，收市報21,388點，升26點或0.12%。國企指數收報9,060點，升23點或0.26%。主板 成交677億元，港股通餘額101.4億人民幣。
第一上海首席策略師葉尚志認為，港股短期走勢反覆偏穩，若能守穩21,000點水平，將會上望去年收市位21,914點。
4、滬綜指收跌8點 滬股通淨流入
人行今日放水1,100億元人民幣，內地股市先高後低，滬綜指全日跌8點或0.27%，收報2,945點；深成指跌24點或0.24%，以10,149點收市；滬深300指跌5點或0.17%，收報3,160點；而創業板指收市則獨升8點或0.4%，報2,155點。
2市主板成交跌2%，至逾4,300億元人民幣；滬股通錄餘逾128.48億元人民幣或98%，而每日額度為130億元人民幣，意味資金流入。
5、歐股跌近1% 空中巴士跌約半成
日本央行維持利率不變，拖累日股大跌，而油價從今年高位回落，歐股早段受壓，英國富時100指數報6,273點，跌46點或0.73%；法國CAC指數報4,518點，跌40點或0.89%；德國DAX指數報10,224點，跌75點或0.73%。
多 家歐洲銀行業績「走樣」，德銀首季純利按年跌58%至2.36億歐元，股價早段靠穩升0.51%；西班牙BBVA首季純利跌54%至7.09億歐元，股價 大跌5.86%；萊斯銀行股價跌2.73%，此前公司公布首季稅前溢利跌46%。另外，空中巴士跌近半成至4.84%，此前公司指首季純利按年跌50%； 奢侈品牌愛馬仕報告首季收入升6.1%，股價升2%。
6、工行首季盈利僅增0.59%
中國工商銀行(01398) 公布今年第一季業績，期內收入1,689億元人民幣，按年增加1.92%，錄得淨利潤747億元人民幣，按年增長0.59%。利息淨收入1,188.1億 元人民幣，按年下降5.17%；非利息收入501.82億元人民幣，按年增長23.83%，其中手續費及佣金淨收入434.85億元人民幣，按年增長 16.86%。
期內核心一級資本充足率12.87%，一級資本充足率13.45%，資本充足率14.66%，均滿足監管要求。不良貸款餘額為2,046.59億元；不良貸款率為1.66%；撥備覆蓋率為141.21%。
7、中海油首季收入跌30%
中國海洋石油(00883)公布，2016年第1季度營業收入258.19億元人民幣(下同)，按年跌29.68%；公司實現總淨產量1.243億桶油當量，按年增5.1%，主要受惠於中國海域2015年以來新投產油氣田帶來的產量貢獻。
同 期，公司未經審計的油氣銷售收入達約246.4億元，按年降30.7%，主因國際油價大跌。期內，公司的平均實現油價為每桶32.54美元，按年降 39.1%，與國際油價走勢基本一致。首季公司資本支出約96.9億元，按年跌39.2%，主因公司為應對低油價環境，進一步削減全年資本支出預算。
8、新盤專輯：SHOUSON PEAK新增置業優惠
新地(00016)旗下壽山村道Shouson Peak新增優惠，引入Premier House特選現金優惠付款計劃，按售價減4.5%，該優惠只適用於19E號屋的買家。
發展商昨日上載新銷售安排，周日(5月1日)將於先到先得發售19E號屋，該單位實用面積3,218方呎，價單售價逾2.774億元。
9、亞洲樓王：天匯銀主盤1.083億拍出
亞洲分層住宅呎價樓王的西半山天匯銀主盤，由世紀21測量師行負責拍賣，該天匯單位為30樓以上海景戶，4房雙套房間隔，實用面積約2,476方呎，現為銀行令及法院令單位，連1個車位開價9,800萬元。
單位每口叫價200萬元，獲承價5口至1.08億元，其後3度調減每口叫價，獲買家承價至1.082億元，最終以1.083億元售出，較開價高逾10%。據了解，該單位連車位購入價為1.377億元，跌價逾2成。
10、劈價瘋潮：雅利德樺臺劈6球 美孚削61萬
九龍屋苑連環劈價，更不乏豪宅物業，有新盤推售的何文田區，二手業主腳軟求售，荔枝角美孚新邨6期蘭秀道21號低層A室，實用面積701方呎，3房連套房間隔，2月底開價758萬元，放盤2個月累減61萬元，以697萬元易手，實用呎價9,943元。
何文田雅利德樺臺中層D室，實用面積1,116方呎，3房連套房間隔，以1,265萬元易手，實用呎價11,335元。上址去年以1,890萬元放盤，终累減625萬元，減幅達33%。
澳洲留學生財困 25%人翻垃圾桶搵食
on.cc東網專訊
【on.cc東網專訊】 能到外國留學是難得的人生體驗，很多人一般都認為留學生都是富有。不過，在全球第3大留學目的地國家澳洲，當地25%外國留學生處於嚴峻的財困境況，有留學生甚至要靠翻廢棄食物垃圾桶找食物過日。
墨爾本大學高等教育研究學系副教授阿可蒂斯（Sophie Arkoudis）表示，過去10年澳洲在國際留學市場上非常成功，澳洲亦成了全球第3大留學目的地國家。阿可蒂斯指出，很多人誤以為留學生全都很富有， 但她最近對澳洲高等教育及澳洲留學生的研究發現，近25%澳洲的留學生面臨嚴峻的財務困境。
塔斯馬尼亞州多元文化協會主席穆倫巴 （Alphonse Mulumba）亦有同樣看法，他指出人們普遍認為留學生都很富有，但從他曾幫助過的學生來看，卻完全不是這回事。在塔斯馬尼亞，有專為流浪漢服務的餐車，現在每周都會到塔斯馬尼亞大學，不少留學生會前來領取免費食物，有學生甚至翻廢棄食物的垃圾桶找食物。
來自馬來西亞的留學生EJ Yeoh，認同很多澳洲的留學生正面臨嚴峻財困境況，她指澳洲很多東西都很貴，不少留學生朋友因沒有收入來源，經常一天只吃一、兩頓飯，把省下的錢用來付房租或其他用途。
【on.cc東網專訊】 能到外國留學是難得的人生體驗，很多人一般都認為留學生都是富有。不過，在全球第3大留學目的地國家澳洲，當地25%外國留學生處於嚴峻的財困境況，有留學生甚至要靠翻廢棄食物垃圾桶找食物過日。
墨爾本大學高等教育研究學系副教授阿可蒂斯（Sophie Arkoudis）表示，過去10年澳洲在國際留學市場上非常成功，澳洲亦成了全球第3大留學目的地國家。阿可蒂斯指出，很多人誤以為留學生全都很富有， 但她最近對澳洲高等教育及澳洲留學生的研究發現，近25%澳洲的留學生面臨嚴峻的財務困境。
塔斯馬尼亞州多元文化協會主席穆倫巴 （Alphonse Mulumba）亦有同樣看法，他指出人們普遍認為留學生都很富有，但從他曾幫助過的學生來看，卻完全不是這回事。在塔斯馬尼亞，有專為流浪漢服務的餐車，現在每周都會到塔斯馬尼亞大學，不少留學生會前來領取免費食物，有學生甚至翻廢棄食物的垃圾桶找食物。
來自馬來西亞的留學生EJ Yeoh，認同很多澳洲的留學生正面臨嚴峻財困境況，她指澳洲很多東西都很貴，不少留學生朋友因沒有收入來源，經常一天只吃一、兩頓飯，把省下的錢用來付房租或其他用途。
冷凍牆包圍福島核電站 非百分百阻隔地下水
on.cc東網專訊
【on.cc東網專訊】 日本於2011年發生311大地震後，福島發生嚴重核災。為了防止地下水流入受損的福島第一核電站反應堆內，東京電力公司及當局正建造冷凍牆包圍反應堆。不過，負責這個項目的工程師承認，冷凍牆不能完全阻隔地下水流入反應堆。
負責建造冷凍牆的總工程師岡村雄一本周初受訪，承認冷凍牆不能百分百阻隔地下水流入反應堆。為了防止受損的反應堆過熱，工人不斷向反應堆射水降溫，但結果產 生了大量受輻射污染的水。有見及此，東電早前決定建造長1.5公里的冷凍牆，包圍福島第一核電站，防止地下水流入反應堆及核污水洩漏。
不過，由於牆身有空隙及下雨，導致冷凍牆未能完全阻隔地下水流入反應堆，並於每日產生最多50噸的核污水。岡村雄一形容：「這是惡性循環，就像貓捉老鼠的遊戲。我們已經想出很多方法，來應對出乎意料之外的問題。
【on.cc東網專訊】 日本於2011年發生311大地震後，福島發生嚴重核災。為了防止地下水流入受損的福島第一核電站反應堆內，東京電力公司及當局正建造冷凍牆包圍反應堆。不過，負責這個項目的工程師承認，冷凍牆不能完全阻隔地下水流入反應堆。
負責建造冷凍牆的總工程師岡村雄一本周初受訪，承認冷凍牆不能百分百阻隔地下水流入反應堆。為了防止受損的反應堆過熱，工人不斷向反應堆射水降溫，但結果產 生了大量受輻射污染的水。有見及此，東電早前決定建造長1.5公里的冷凍牆，包圍福島第一核電站，防止地下水流入反應堆及核污水洩漏。
不過，由於牆身有空隙及下雨，導致冷凍牆未能完全阻隔地下水流入反應堆，並於每日產生最多50噸的核污水。岡村雄一形容：「這是惡性循環，就像貓捉老鼠的遊戲。我們已經想出很多方法，來應對出乎意料之外的問題。
供港內地豬大減 排骨價飆4成賣70蚊斤
on.cc東網專訊
【on.cc東網專訊】 曾幾何時，豬肉被視為下等人的肉食，但目前情況已大不同。受內地供港活豬數量大幅減少拖累，活豬批發價由年初每擔1500港元升至本月近1800港元，今 個月更單月勁升7%。鮮肉大聯盟副主席關國華形容，豬價升幅得人驚，對民生影響嚴重，一斤排骨年初只售50港元，近日已要賣近70港元，升幅近4成：「代 理都唔積極攞豬，非超市肉檔捱得好辛苦。」
食物環境衞生署數字顯示，昨(27日)只有3958隻內地活豬供港，而本月至今，每日內地供港豬量一直在3500至4200隻之間徘徊，4月2日清明節前的周末，更只得不足3300隻供港，迫使豬價直線向上。
關國華指，每日要有4400至4500隻內地豬供港才能穩定豬價，可是內地市場也求「豬」若渴，代理寧願把豬隻留在內地出售多賺取利潤，加上大部分內地供港 豬肉被超市瓜分，使供應更緊張，平均拍賣價由1月約1500港元一擔，升至本月初近1700港元，到近日更升至約1800港元，非超市肉檔幾近蝕住做，更要被迫加價影響民生：「50蚊斤瘦肉、70(元)斤排骨，基層市民仲食得起咩？」
【on.cc東網專訊】 曾幾何時，豬肉被視為下等人的肉食，但目前情況已大不同。受內地供港活豬數量大幅減少拖累，活豬批發價由年初每擔1500港元升至本月近1800港元，今 個月更單月勁升7%。鮮肉大聯盟副主席關國華形容，豬價升幅得人驚，對民生影響嚴重，一斤排骨年初只售50港元，近日已要賣近70港元，升幅近4成：「代 理都唔積極攞豬，非超市肉檔捱得好辛苦。」
食物環境衞生署數字顯示，昨(27日)只有3958隻內地活豬供港，而本月至今，每日內地供港豬量一直在3500至4200隻之間徘徊，4月2日清明節前的周末，更只得不足3300隻供港，迫使豬價直線向上。
關國華指，每日要有4400至4500隻內地豬供港才能穩定豬價，可是內地市場也求「豬」若渴，代理寧願把豬隻留在內地出售多賺取利潤，加上大部分內地供港 豬肉被超市瓜分，使供應更緊張，平均拍賣價由1月約1500港元一擔，升至本月初近1700港元，到近日更升至約1800港元，非超市肉檔幾近蝕住做，更要被迫加價影響民生：「50蚊斤瘦肉、70(元)斤排骨，基層市民仲食得起咩？」
Harvey Organ: Silver Sets Another NEW Open Interest Record!
www.silverdoctors.com全文
Today we got a little surprise in that gold rebounded from its lows to close at $1249.20 at comex closing time and silver was up 18 cents at $17.29 The comex options expiry had little effect on both metals. In silver, we now have an all time high in silver OI at 206,748 which represents 1.03 billion oz. Generally when you get a record high OI, you also have high prices for your commodity.
Today we got a little surprise in that gold rebounded from its lows to close at $1249.20 at comex closing time and silver was up 18 cents at $17.29 The comex options expiry had little effect on both metals. In silver, we now have an all time high in silver OI at 206,748 which represents 1.03 billion oz. Generally when you get a record high OI, you also have high prices for your commodity.
Please remember that even though comex options have expired we still have London’s LBMA and OTC to contend with. They expire on Friday morning.
In silver, the open interest rose by
another 711 contracts up to 206,748 despite the fact that the price
was silver was up only by 11 cents with respect to yesterday’s trading.
In ounces, the OI is still represented by 1 over BILLLION oz (1.03
BILLION TO BE EXACT or 147% of annual global silver production (exRussia
&ex China)We are now at multi year highs in OI with respect to
silver
In gold, the total comex gold OI ROSE by 2448 contracts, UP to 497,884 contracts AS the price of gold was UP $3.00 with TUESDAY’S TRADING(at comex closing).
1. Today, we had the open interest in
silver rise by 711 contracts up to 206,748 despite the fact that the
price of silver was UP by only 11 cents with TUESDAY’S trading. The gold open interest ROSE by A LARGE 2,448 contracts AS gold ROSE by $3.00 YESTERDAY. Somebody
big is standing FOR SILVER and surrounding the comex with paper longs
ready to ponce once called upon to take out physical silver.
Silver Warning
Martin Amstrong 睇銀價要大跌 ?
www.armstrongeconomics.comWe will do a Private Blog tonight on Silver. We have generated a – P E R F E C T – Double Daily Bearish Reversal which is very rare. We will provide details tonight.
聯儲局：不排除6月加息可能
on.cc東網專訊
【on.cc東網專訊】 美國聯儲局香港時間凌晨一如預期按兵不動，聯邦基金利率維持0.25至0.5厘，當局表示，美國經濟平穩增長，並且不再提及環球經濟及金融情況對美國構成風險，重申未來加息步伐緩慢，似乎未有排除6月加息的可能。
聯儲局一連兩日議息後發表聲明，稱美國經濟以溫和步伐擴張，樓市進一步改善，家庭開支以溫和步伐增長，但出口及商業固定投資轉弱。此外，多項指標顯示，強勁職位增長反映就業市場進一步增強。
物價方面，通脹近月呈回升，但仍低於當局目標，部分反映早前能源價格和非能源入口價格下跌，市場通脹指標進一步下跌，惟長期通脹預期近月來變化不大。
投票取向方面，公開市場委員會（FOMC）成員以九票贊成對一票反對通過決議，堪薩斯城聯儲銀行行長喬治連續兩次會議要求加息0.25厘。是次議息後不設記者會，亦不會發表最新利率預測。
交銀香港首席經濟及策略師羅家聰表示，美國聯儲局未有加息，屬於市場預期之內，由於並無記招，亦無委員會的加息預期變化，所以對市場不會有很大的驚喜。
羅家聰認為，聯儲局主席耶倫在聲明中的措辭中，可留意對「加息」的陳述會否如15年10月的聲明般具體，當時聲明措辭為「raise the target range」。他指出，是次議息近期的數據，以失業率走勢與之前分別較大，已經再無直線下跌的現象，即是接近全民就業的橫行。
【on.cc東網專訊】 美國聯儲局香港時間凌晨一如預期按兵不動，聯邦基金利率維持0.25至0.5厘，當局表示，美國經濟平穩增長，並且不再提及環球經濟及金融情況對美國構成風險，重申未來加息步伐緩慢，似乎未有排除6月加息的可能。
聯儲局一連兩日議息後發表聲明，稱美國經濟以溫和步伐擴張，樓市進一步改善，家庭開支以溫和步伐增長，但出口及商業固定投資轉弱。此外，多項指標顯示，強勁職位增長反映就業市場進一步增強。
物價方面，通脹近月呈回升，但仍低於當局目標，部分反映早前能源價格和非能源入口價格下跌，市場通脹指標進一步下跌，惟長期通脹預期近月來變化不大。
投票取向方面，公開市場委員會（FOMC）成員以九票贊成對一票反對通過決議，堪薩斯城聯儲銀行行長喬治連續兩次會議要求加息0.25厘。是次議息後不設記者會，亦不會發表最新利率預測。
交銀香港首席經濟及策略師羅家聰表示，美國聯儲局未有加息，屬於市場預期之內，由於並無記招，亦無委員會的加息預期變化，所以對市場不會有很大的驚喜。
羅家聰認為，聯儲局主席耶倫在聲明中的措辭中，可留意對「加息」的陳述會否如15年10月的聲明般具體，當時聲明措辭為「raise the target range」。他指出，是次議息近期的數據，以失業率走勢與之前分別較大，已經再無直線下跌的現象，即是接近全民就業的橫行。
Gold & Silver Are Behaving Differently… Charts Smell of Desperation – Fund Manager
www.silverdoctors.com
Submitted by PM Fund Manager Dave Kranzler:
Silver continues to trade DIFFERENTLY, in a positive manner that it has not done in YEARS. The potential for the silver price to explode in the very near future is all there. The shares continue to maintain their own positive tone and refuse to give up much ground on corrections. – Bill Murphy from GATA’s Midas report
Nearly the entire precious metals investing community looks at the Comex options expiration and the Fed’s FOMC meetings with trepidation, as historically those two events have triggered a massive Comex paper attack on the price of the metals. Having both events back to back in the same week elicits even more fear. Of course, Goldman Sachs commodities clown, Jeffrey Currie, was on CNBC again today calling for $1000 gold. This guy has absolutely no shame about continuously making an idiot of himself with his price predictions for gold.
I exchanged emails with Bill Murphy on Tuesday morning because the precious metals, especially silver, were unexpectedly buoyant in the morning. I wrote last week that the Comex bullion banks, based on the put/call open interest for May silver, were incentivized to make sure silver closed below $17 today for options expiry.
I emailed Bill asserting that “they” can’t keep the metals down. Gold spiked at 9:00 EST
on no news or event that would have triggered a spike The 5-minute graph indicates that it started to move up and then short-covering kicked in. Silver started to move and then there’s a red bar and then silver pops. That tells me that they tried to hit silver to keep it from popping but short-covering still kicked in. (click on image to enlarge)
The 60 minute bar chart of silver shows silver oscillating between $16.80 and $17.30 since
last Tues, with a move up that was slammed with a paper hit on Thursday. But silver refuses to go lower at the direction of the Fed/bullion banks. At this point silver could break either way. They are very desperate to keep it from breaking up, but they seem incapable, at least for now, of forcing it lower. (click on image to enlarge)
The charts smell of serious desperation. Most gold commentators are pointing at the COT structure and sweating bullets. That side of the ship is too crowded in my opinion. We may well get another surprise move higher later today after the FOMC’s Cirque du Merde show is over. Gold and silver are definitely behaving differently than we’ve seen over the last 5 years. The criminal bullion banks seem to be having trouble pushing them lower.
Submitted by PM Fund Manager Dave Kranzler:
Silver continues to trade DIFFERENTLY, in a positive manner that it has not done in YEARS. The potential for the silver price to explode in the very near future is all there. The shares continue to maintain their own positive tone and refuse to give up much ground on corrections. – Bill Murphy from GATA’s Midas report
Nearly the entire precious metals investing community looks at the Comex options expiration and the Fed’s FOMC meetings with trepidation, as historically those two events have triggered a massive Comex paper attack on the price of the metals. Having both events back to back in the same week elicits even more fear. Of course, Goldman Sachs commodities clown, Jeffrey Currie, was on CNBC again today calling for $1000 gold. This guy has absolutely no shame about continuously making an idiot of himself with his price predictions for gold.
I exchanged emails with Bill Murphy on Tuesday morning because the precious metals, especially silver, were unexpectedly buoyant in the morning. I wrote last week that the Comex bullion banks, based on the put/call open interest for May silver, were incentivized to make sure silver closed below $17 today for options expiry.
I emailed Bill asserting that “they” can’t keep the metals down. Gold spiked at 9:00 EST
on no news or event that would have triggered a spike The 5-minute graph indicates that it started to move up and then short-covering kicked in. Silver started to move and then there’s a red bar and then silver pops. That tells me that they tried to hit silver to keep it from popping but short-covering still kicked in. (click on image to enlarge)
The 60 minute bar chart of silver shows silver oscillating between $16.80 and $17.30 since
last Tues, with a move up that was slammed with a paper hit on Thursday. But silver refuses to go lower at the direction of the Fed/bullion banks. At this point silver could break either way. They are very desperate to keep it from breaking up, but they seem incapable, at least for now, of forcing it lower. (click on image to enlarge)
The charts smell of serious desperation. Most gold commentators are pointing at the COT structure and sweating bullets. That side of the ship is too crowded in my opinion. We may well get another surprise move higher later today after the FOMC’s Cirque du Merde show is over. Gold and silver are definitely behaving differently than we’ve seen over the last 5 years. The criminal bullion banks seem to be having trouble pushing them lower.
2016年4月27日 星期三
香港經濟寒冬臨 2成中小企或一年內結業
on.cc東網專訊
【on.cc東網專訊】 香港生產力促進局公布今年第2季「渣打香港中小企領先營商指數」調查，綜合指數按季下跌2.4點至40.4，降至三年多以來的最低點，當中5項分項，包括 招聘意向、盈利表現、營業狀況、環球經濟及投資意向，其中招聘意向首次跌穿50分界線，反映中小企今季或凍結人手。
調查共訪問806家香港中小企，普遍看淡前景，近20%受訪企業表示，若經濟持續低迷，或於一年內結業。其中，零售、進出口貿易及批發以及製造業三大行業中，受影響最深的為零售業，達27.8%零售企業稱如不景情況持續一年，將面臨結業危機。
渣打香港高級經濟師劉健恆指出，今次調查數據持續疲弱及全面轉差，可見金融市場不明朗因素，包括油價放緩、美國加息等為經濟放緩帶來持續性問題，雖然中國經濟及人民幣匯價趨回穩，及市場對美加息預期逐降，但料指數至少要一、兩季後才見谷底。
劉健恆續稱，香港銀行經歷過不同「上上落落」周期，會以合適的信貸監管協助中小企，強調銀行會持審慎態度的同時，不會對企業審批過分敏感。生產力局副總裁老少聰亦認為，銀行放寬融資審批、加大信貸額度等有助企業「撐落去」。
on.cc東網專訊
【on.cc東網專訊】 訪港旅客減少，香港零售業陷寒冬，餐飲業亦不能幸免。飲食業職工總會上月11日至今，接獲18間酒樓及食肆結業消息，較去年同期多2.6倍，涉及1075 名員工。去年大部分食肆在母親節前一周的訂枱量已爆滿，今年卻急跌至只有20%。
工會過去3個月進行的調查又發現，86%受訪飲食業工友憂慮未來一年公司會裁員或縮減人手；59%人今年沒有加薪，反映業內發展有倒退迹象。工會呼籲僱主採用薄利多銷手法，減輕經營壓力，與僱員共度時艱；及促請港府就標準工時立法。
工會今年1月至3月問卷訪問323名飲食業工友，發現23%受訪者預期今年加薪3%或以下，43%對香港經濟前景抱悲觀態度。
飲食業職工總會主席郭宏興表示，經濟市道疲弱及港府限制個人遊旅客數目，直接影響飲食業從業員生計，由上月中至今已有18間中式酒樓、日式餐廳及快餐廳等食 肆結業，較去年同期的3至5間多2.6倍。即使以往是消費檔期的五‧一假期，業界普遍亦不看好行情，「去年(食肆)一晚大約做(生意額)十三四萬港元，今 年料最少跌一半！」他又補充，以往大部分食肆在母親節前一周的訂枱量已爆滿，但今年僅得20%。而酒席定價亦較去年跌8%至10%至2200港元，本地客 以往一圍的消費額達6000港元，內地客則達8000至1萬港元；但今年本地客及內地客的消費額均下降2000港元，及少吃海味、花膠及鮑魚等貴價食材。
有年資逾30年的酒樓廚房工友鄧志堅慨嘆，業內生意「淡咗好多」，直指僱主在生意淡靜下會首先向員工「開刀」，「請少啲人，退咗休嘅(職位)唔會再請，變咗 10個人嘅工作量，得8個人做」，導致三輸情況，「僱主對員工唔好，員工為趕時間，菜都唔洗就煮畀人食，食客感受到咪少幫襯，到最後僱主都係搵少咗 (錢)」。
工會建議僱主檢討人手安排，提供足夠休息時間予員工，又呼籲發展商與食肆經營者協商租金，共度時艱。
【on.cc東網專訊】 香港生產力促進局公布今年第2季「渣打香港中小企領先營商指數」調查，綜合指數按季下跌2.4點至40.4，降至三年多以來的最低點，當中5項分項，包括 招聘意向、盈利表現、營業狀況、環球經濟及投資意向，其中招聘意向首次跌穿50分界線，反映中小企今季或凍結人手。
調查共訪問806家香港中小企，普遍看淡前景，近20%受訪企業表示，若經濟持續低迷，或於一年內結業。其中，零售、進出口貿易及批發以及製造業三大行業中，受影響最深的為零售業，達27.8%零售企業稱如不景情況持續一年，將面臨結業危機。
渣打香港高級經濟師劉健恆指出，今次調查數據持續疲弱及全面轉差，可見金融市場不明朗因素，包括油價放緩、美國加息等為經濟放緩帶來持續性問題，雖然中國經濟及人民幣匯價趨回穩，及市場對美加息預期逐降，但料指數至少要一、兩季後才見谷底。
劉健恆續稱，香港銀行經歷過不同「上上落落」周期，會以合適的信貸監管協助中小企，強調銀行會持審慎態度的同時，不會對企業審批過分敏感。生產力局副總裁老少聰亦認為，銀行放寬融資審批、加大信貸額度等有助企業「撐落去」。
on.cc東網專訊
【on.cc東網專訊】 訪港旅客減少，香港零售業陷寒冬，餐飲業亦不能幸免。飲食業職工總會上月11日至今，接獲18間酒樓及食肆結業消息，較去年同期多2.6倍，涉及1075 名員工。去年大部分食肆在母親節前一周的訂枱量已爆滿，今年卻急跌至只有20%。
工會過去3個月進行的調查又發現，86%受訪飲食業工友憂慮未來一年公司會裁員或縮減人手；59%人今年沒有加薪，反映業內發展有倒退迹象。工會呼籲僱主採用薄利多銷手法，減輕經營壓力，與僱員共度時艱；及促請港府就標準工時立法。
工會今年1月至3月問卷訪問323名飲食業工友，發現23%受訪者預期今年加薪3%或以下，43%對香港經濟前景抱悲觀態度。
飲食業職工總會主席郭宏興表示，經濟市道疲弱及港府限制個人遊旅客數目，直接影響飲食業從業員生計，由上月中至今已有18間中式酒樓、日式餐廳及快餐廳等食 肆結業，較去年同期的3至5間多2.6倍。即使以往是消費檔期的五‧一假期，業界普遍亦不看好行情，「去年(食肆)一晚大約做(生意額)十三四萬港元，今 年料最少跌一半！」他又補充，以往大部分食肆在母親節前一周的訂枱量已爆滿，但今年僅得20%。而酒席定價亦較去年跌8%至10%至2200港元，本地客 以往一圍的消費額達6000港元，內地客則達8000至1萬港元；但今年本地客及內地客的消費額均下降2000港元，及少吃海味、花膠及鮑魚等貴價食材。
有年資逾30年的酒樓廚房工友鄧志堅慨嘆，業內生意「淡咗好多」，直指僱主在生意淡靜下會首先向員工「開刀」，「請少啲人，退咗休嘅(職位)唔會再請，變咗 10個人嘅工作量，得8個人做」，導致三輸情況，「僱主對員工唔好，員工為趕時間，菜都唔洗就煮畀人食，食客感受到咪少幫襯，到最後僱主都係搵少咗 (錢)」。
工會建議僱主檢討人手安排，提供足夠休息時間予員工，又呼籲發展商與食肆經營者協商租金，共度時艱。
Keith Neumeyer: Silver, More Rare Than the Market Understands
www.sprottmoney.com
By Rory Hall - The Daily Coin
April 25, 2016
For the past three plus years I have been asking how silver and gold have always been available when we can see stress in the markets all through the supply chain. According to several prominent analyst, and producers, global silver and gold production declined in 2015. In Mexico alone silver production is down approximately 6%. According to some of the information that we reviewed, here at The Daily Coin, silver production increased due to the low price of silver.
Silver has become a just-in-time product. With Eric Sprott, Sprott Assets, recently announcing a $5 billion addition of physical silver to the PSLV ETF we shall see what is happening with the silver market at the institutional level.
Keith Neumeyer also explains how a large electronics manufacturer recently contacted his company, First Majestic, regarding the acquisition of silver for their manufacturing processes. This screams of a very, very tight supply of silver in large quantities. Where is metal coming from?
I sat down with Keith Neumeyer, CEO, First Majestic and Chairman, First Mining Finance, to get his take on Duestche Bank admitting to rigging the silver and gold markets and naming both HSBC and Scotia-Mocatta as being involved with the scheme. The important part is Duestche Bank naming other bullion banks as being part of the scheme.
Keith also shares with us how the gold/silver ratio is so far out balance that when it begins to correct that it will be breathtaking in the way it unfolds. Can you imagine a 8:1 gold/silver ratio price? Currently, the ratio is 75:1. Meaning the price of gold is 75 times higher than silver even thought silver is mined at a 10:1 ratio to gold.
Let’s listen to Mr. Neumeyer and allow him to explain the current condition of the market and how the mining production will continue to decline, thereby, putting quality mining operations in the drivers seat for the unfolding next leg of the precious metals bull market.
By Rory Hall - The Daily Coin
April 25, 2016
For the past three plus years I have been asking how silver and gold have always been available when we can see stress in the markets all through the supply chain. According to several prominent analyst, and producers, global silver and gold production declined in 2015. In Mexico alone silver production is down approximately 6%. According to some of the information that we reviewed, here at The Daily Coin, silver production increased due to the low price of silver.
Silver has become a just-in-time product. With Eric Sprott, Sprott Assets, recently announcing a $5 billion addition of physical silver to the PSLV ETF we shall see what is happening with the silver market at the institutional level.
Keith Neumeyer also explains how a large electronics manufacturer recently contacted his company, First Majestic, regarding the acquisition of silver for their manufacturing processes. This screams of a very, very tight supply of silver in large quantities. Where is metal coming from?
I sat down with Keith Neumeyer, CEO, First Majestic and Chairman, First Mining Finance, to get his take on Duestche Bank admitting to rigging the silver and gold markets and naming both HSBC and Scotia-Mocatta as being involved with the scheme. The important part is Duestche Bank naming other bullion banks as being part of the scheme.
Keith also shares with us how the gold/silver ratio is so far out balance that when it begins to correct that it will be breathtaking in the way it unfolds. Can you imagine a 8:1 gold/silver ratio price? Currently, the ratio is 75:1. Meaning the price of gold is 75 times higher than silver even thought silver is mined at a 10:1 ratio to gold.
Let’s listen to Mr. Neumeyer and allow him to explain the current condition of the market and how the mining production will continue to decline, thereby, putting quality mining operations in the drivers seat for the unfolding next leg of the precious metals bull market.
世界金銀比例 !
Commodities Futures Expert Warns Commercial Signal Failure May Be In Progress
又要推低銀價俾大家買平貨 ?
不過作者說, 行動可以失敗 !
www.silverdoctors.com
Submitted by JB Slear, Fort Wealth:
We have a New World Record with Silver’s Open Interest being above 205,000 contracts… Go Cartel, you can do it !!…
Drive that price lower, that will scare all of us buyers … yup, it’s worked before hasn’t it??
LOLOL … for those of you that do not or have not been in a futures contract that had a Commercial Signal Failure in it, you missed out on the Corn, Wheat, and Soy Beans markets of the 1990’s, when very bad weather struck the bread basket.
This Silver market has all the proper elements that dictate the commercials being on the wrong side of reality, especially after Deutsche Bank’s admittance to the manipulations ….
I’ve been on a few Commercial Signal Failures in the past, plan on being on another one soon enough … this may be happening right now, it depends on what unfolds in the next few days, so stay tooned!
JB Slear
Fort Wealth Trading Co LLC.
It’s A Gold Bull Era-Time For Gold Community To Embrace It! – Stewart Thomson
www.silverdoctors.com
Submitted by Stewart Thomson, Graceland Updates:
Submitted by Stewart Thomson, Graceland Updates:
- All institutional analyst eyes are on this week’s central bank announcements from Japan and America. Most gold community analysts seem to have a difficult time grasping the idea that Japan’s fiat currency is viewed by top FOREX money managers as a safe haven, albeit less of one than gold.
- The Japanese government is a huge debtor, but the citizens are even bigger creditors, and the bottom line is that the weakness of the debtors is superseded by the strength of the creditors.
- It’s possible that the Bank of Japan fires a “bazooka” this week, but how that will affect the Japanese stock market, the dollar-yen trade, and gold… is unknown.
- Goldman Sachs analysts believe that a Kuroda bazooka shot will strengthen the dollar and make the Japanese stock market surge higher.
- In contrast, Morgan Stanley believes the bazooka shot will have the opposite effect; the Japanese stock market rally will fail, and the dollar will fall against the yen.
- On that note, please click here now. For more detail on Morgan Stanley’s view, please click here now. I think Morgan Stanley’s team will likely prevail. Here’s why:
- Kuroda is attempting to send the stock market higher just as the seasonally weak month of May arrives, and that’s a tall order, especially when powerful money managers at Morgan Stanley are going to use any strength to exit the market.
- The US central bank is also in an interesting position right now. The NIRP policies adopted by Japan and Europe are viewed as failures by more and more top money managers around the world, yet just one small US rate hike caused a huge global stock market sell-off, and a safe haven surge into the yen and gold.
- If Janet Yellen raises rates at any time this year, an even bigger global stock market tumble than the last one is likely. If she leaves rates unchanged, or joins “Team NIRP” and actually cuts rates, it could cause a loss of confidence event with central banks in general, and an enormous institutional gold buying binge is quite likely to happen.
- In terms of the fear trade, gold is clearly sitting in the best win-win position of many years.
- Please click here now. I’ve been emphatic that India is entering a one hundred year “gold-oriented bull era”. Stock market enthusiasts in the Western gold community should focus on Indian stock market ETFs, rather than on “hail Mary” plays with the aging empire of America.
- Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge. From a technical perspective, the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) index looks truly spectacular.
- I think the BSE is likely beginning the greatest bull move in the history of global stock markets. Eager investors can use INDA-NYSE to get in on the upside action.
- Interestingly, as Indian markets soar, the US stock market rally is likely to drift aimlessly, and a crash to below the 2009 lows cannot be ruled out.
- That’s because US stock buybacks have massively distorted price/earnings ratios, and without the QE lifeline, large money managers are showing real concern about being invested in American markets.
- Please click here now.
- Sizable volatility is likely as the Fed and the BOJ make their announcements. After a likely pullback towards $1190, gold should rise towards my $1305 target price, and then onto $1320, $1350, and $1380.
- Fear needs to be tossed aside. Short term pullbacks offer superb entry points for all ultimate asset enthusiasts!
- Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this hourly bars oil chart. Oil is the largest component of most commodity indexes, and there’s a nice bull wedge pattern in play.
- Chinese demand for commodities is rising again, and many large US money managers believe an upcycle for inflation lies just ahead. I don’t think they will stop allocating money to the sector because of any short term concerns, and most gold stock charts look somewhat like the “oil chart on steroids”.
- Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this GDX hourly bars chart. The bull wedge pattern is almost identical to the oil chart wedge. All ten percent price corrections in gold stocks should be bought aggressively. Stock market investors can’t avoid India just because they lost money in US markets after Y2K. Likewise, Western gold stock investors can’t focus on past gold stocks losses. It’s a new era. It’s a gold bull era, and it’s time for the Western gold community to embrace it with open arms.
- Please click here now. This is a nice Chinese commodity exchanges volume chart. I predicted a soft landing for the transition of the Chinese economy from an exports-orientation to domestic consumption, followed by a surge in gold buying. That’s exactly what has happened, and I’ll dare to suggest the upside fun has only just started!
- Please click here now. Western mainstream media is beginning to note the growing power of Chinese exchanges in major commodity price discovery.
- Please click here now. Russia’s central bank continues its relentless monthly gold buy program, as does the PBOC, the central bank of China. Western gold and silver community investors should be modest buyers of all small pullbacks, and bigger buyers of any “price correction” that ultimately appears. It’s time to say good-bye to tears and fears, and say hello to about one hundred years of bull era fun!
收市10大要知：全球等聯儲 道期現跌43點
on.cc東網專訊
【on.cc東網專訊】 港股收市後，全球焦點落在香港時間周四凌晨2時的聯儲局議息結果，加上蘋果公司業績差，市場亦注視其股價在美股開市後去向，道指期貨現跌43點。以下為「收市10大要知」新聞：
1、港股收跌45點 大摩叫忍手
恒指收市跌0.21%或45點，報21,361點；國指微升0.24%或21點，報9,037點。聯儲局議息前 夕，大市窄幅徘徊，連日缺乏方向，成交僅549億元。摩根士丹利認為，H股已自低位反彈兩成，不可高追；維持恒指及國指未來基本目標20,500點及 8,250點。
重磅的騰訊(00700)跌1.4%，由中移(00941)及滙控(00005)抵銷；中國平安(02318)季績後略升，但中銀香港(02388)跌3%。季績遠勝預期的渣打集團(02888)急漲5%，計劃配股集資的中國環境資源(01130)炒高48%。電力板塊連日受壓後回穩，水泥類股各異。
2、滬綜指收跌11點 滬股通未見資金流入
滬深股市高開後窄幅上落，尾市跌幅擴大，滬綜指全日收報2,953點，跌11點或0.37%；深成指跌35點或0.35%，報10,174點；滬深300指跌13點或0.42%，報3,165點；創業板指跌9點或0.42%，報2,146點。
滬市成交1,502億元人民幣；深市成交2,775億元人民幣。滬股通現淨餘額逾130億元人民幣，與每日額度130億元人民幣差不多，意味資金未流入。
3、歐股個別發展 巴克萊升逾3%
市場繼續等待日美央行議息結果，亞洲主要股市受壓，歐股早段個別發展，當中英國富時100指數報6,277點，跌7點或0.11%；法國CAC指數報4,540點，升7點或0.17%；德國DAX指數報10,284點，升24點或0.24%。
多間銀行公布業績，股價向好，當中巴克萊升3.88%。巴克萊公布1財季稅前利潤7.93億英鎊，按年跌25%，但集團核心稅前利潤按年升18%至16.1億英鎊。集團稱非核心業務的裁減仍在進行中，不會改變之前的預期。
4、7成打工仔曾帶病返工 令香港損失306億
你有冇試過帶病返工？原來好多打工仔為了不影響花紅及不想同事給予負面評價，都帶病返工，打工真艱難。保柏一項調查發現，有90%打工仔舊年曾患病，當中 68%都曾帶病返工。平均而言，香港打工仔舊年平均有64日帶病返工，約佔全年工作日數1/4！員工咁辛苦，僱主又知唔知？原來僱主估計，員工帶病返工日 數只有19日，哇，足足差成45日！
究竟帶病返工的生產力係點呢？原來計番條數，由於帶病返工影響生產效率，令生產力損失高達306億港元。即係有幾多？約佔香港本地生產總值的1.3%！
5、營商調查：2成香港中小企或1年內結業
香港生產力促進局公布今年第2季「渣打香港中小企領先營商指數」調查，綜合指數按季下跌2.4點至40.4，降至3年多以來的最低點，當中5項分項，包括招 聘意向、盈利表現、營業狀況、環球經濟及投資意向，其中招聘意向首次跌穿50分界線，反映中小企今季或凍結人手。中小企看淡前景展望，近20%受訪企業表 示，若經濟持續低迷，或於1年內結業。
6、英國第一季GDP初值增2.1%
英國公布，今年第一季國內生產總值(GDP)按年初值增2.1%，稍好於預期2%，與去年第4季增長2.1%一致；按季則增長0.4%，符合預期0.4%。這意味英倫銀行或延至明年才加息。
另外，全球最大博彩公司之一威廉希爾公布數據顯示，將英國「脫歐」的賠率從1賠3下調至1賠2.5，英國「留歐」賠率從1賠0.25上調至1賠0.3，意味「脫歐」機會升溫。
7、湯文亮：急賣樓唔多 樓價難大跌
紀惠集團行政總裁湯文亮撰文指，細價樓樓價雖然只是跌了2成多，但樓市跌勢似乎已經緩和，樓價指數連升2個星期，升幅輕微但義意重大。目前難以肯定樓價已止跌回升，但再大跌的機會不大，最多只會反覆向下調整。
湯文亮相信，很多人不同意其看法，並且引用某些專家的言論，指樓價尚有3成跌幅。他直指那些專家只是空口講白話，預測缺乏說服力。他指出，若要樓價再跌3成，一定要有非常多人賣樓，同時買樓的人又突然減少。問題是，現在甚麼人會賣樓呢？
8、帝峯．皇殿車位308萬摸出 10日賺78萬
這 機會不時屬於「你」的！如何鍊成約10日即賺70萬元？答案係「炒車位」...約10日前拆售的西南九龍帝峯．皇殿車位，每個車位閒閒地都賣逾200萬 元，消息稱，市場已錄首宗摸貨個案，帝峯．皇殿L1層雙號車位，剛以308萬元摸出，1星期有多，帳面已賺78萬元，售價料創奧運站車位新高，成交價可購 天水圍嘉湖山莊2房戶。
9、減價潮擴大：逸瓏園優惠逾26% 推30伙
西貢新盤折實呎價跌穿1萬元！信置(00083)
營業部聯席董事田兆源表示，旗下西貢逸瓏園昨晚原價加推全新價單，涉及30伙，價單平均呎價14,945元，連同各項新增優惠，總折扣連同回贈等總優惠共
佔售價逾26%，較舊有總優惠佔售價14.5%，優惠增加佔售價超過10%，折實平均呎價11,070元，當中數伙單位折實呎價僅低於1萬元。
他指出，該盤新推30伙中，以5座1樓E室呎價最低，該單位實用面積666方呎，價單售價908.8萬元，折實售價665.24萬元，呎價僅9,989元。新價單30伙將於星期六發售。
10、劈價風潮：太古城2日減17萬 碧湖削33萬
二手市略為回暖，交投回升，惟市場仍不乏減價成交個案。鰂魚涌太古城南海閣中層E室，實用面積488方呎，2房園景戶，業主叫價700萬元，放盤2日，減至683萬元易手，實用呎價13,996元。
粉嶺碧湖花園3座高層H室，實用面積400方呎，2房間隔，業主開價368萬元，減價33萬元，以335萬元沽出，實用呎價8,375元。
【on.cc東網專訊】 港股收市後，全球焦點落在香港時間周四凌晨2時的聯儲局議息結果，加上蘋果公司業績差，市場亦注視其股價在美股開市後去向，道指期貨現跌43點。以下為「收市10大要知」新聞：
1、港股收跌45點 大摩叫忍手
恒指收市跌0.21%或45點，報21,361點；國指微升0.24%或21點，報9,037點。聯儲局議息前 夕，大市窄幅徘徊，連日缺乏方向，成交僅549億元。摩根士丹利認為，H股已自低位反彈兩成，不可高追；維持恒指及國指未來基本目標20,500點及 8,250點。
重磅的騰訊(00700
)跌1.4%，由中移(00941)及滙控(00005)抵銷；中國平安(02318)季績後略升，但中銀香港(02388)跌3%。季績遠勝預期的渣打集團(02888)急漲5%，計劃配股集資的中國環境資源(01130)炒高48%。電力板塊連日受壓後回穩，水泥類股各異。2、滬綜指收跌11點 滬股通未見資金流入
滬深股市高開後窄幅上落，尾市跌幅擴大，滬綜指全日收報2,953點，跌11點或0.37%；深成指跌35點或0.35%，報10,174點；滬深300指跌13點或0.42%，報3,165點；創業板指跌9點或0.42%，報2,146點。
滬市成交1,502億元人民幣；深市成交2,775億元人民幣。滬股通現淨餘額逾130億元人民幣，與每日額度130億元人民幣差不多，意味資金未流入。
3、歐股個別發展 巴克萊升逾3%
市場繼續等待日美央行議息結果，亞洲主要股市受壓，歐股早段個別發展，當中英國富時100指數報6,277點，跌7點或0.11%；法國CAC指數報4,540點，升7點或0.17%；德國DAX指數報10,284點，升24點或0.24%。
多間銀行公布業績，股價向好，當中巴克萊升3.88%。巴克萊公布1財季稅前利潤7.93億英鎊，按年跌25%，但集團核心稅前利潤按年升18%至16.1億英鎊。集團稱非核心業務的裁減仍在進行中，不會改變之前的預期。
4、7成打工仔曾帶病返工 令香港損失306億
你有冇試過帶病返工？原來好多打工仔為了不影響花紅及不想同事給予負面評價，都帶病返工，打工真艱難。保柏一項調查發現，有90%打工仔舊年曾患病，當中 68%都曾帶病返工。平均而言，香港打工仔舊年平均有64日帶病返工，約佔全年工作日數1/4！員工咁辛苦，僱主又知唔知？原來僱主估計，員工帶病返工日 數只有19日，哇，足足差成45日！
究竟帶病返工的生產力係點呢？原來計番條數，由於帶病返工影響生產效率，令生產力損失高達306億港元。即係有幾多？約佔香港本地生產總值的1.3%！
5、營商調查：2成香港中小企或1年內結業
香港生產力促進局公布今年第2季「渣打香港中小企領先營商指數」調查，綜合指數按季下跌2.4點至40.4，降至3年多以來的最低點，當中5項分項，包括招 聘意向、盈利表現、營業狀況、環球經濟及投資意向，其中招聘意向首次跌穿50分界線，反映中小企今季或凍結人手。中小企看淡前景展望，近20%受訪企業表 示，若經濟持續低迷，或於1年內結業。
6、英國第一季GDP初值增2.1%
英國公布，今年第一季國內生產總值(GDP)按年初值增2.1%，稍好於預期2%，與去年第4季增長2.1%一致；按季則增長0.4%，符合預期0.4%。這意味英倫銀行或延至明年才加息。
另外，全球最大博彩公司之一威廉希爾公布數據顯示，將英國「脫歐」的賠率從1賠3下調至1賠2.5，英國「留歐」賠率從1賠0.25上調至1賠0.3，意味「脫歐」機會升溫。
7、湯文亮：急賣樓唔多 樓價難大跌
紀惠集團行政總裁湯文亮撰文指，細價樓樓價雖然只是跌了2成多，但樓市跌勢似乎已經緩和，樓價指數連升2個星期，升幅輕微但義意重大。目前難以肯定樓價已止跌回升，但再大跌的機會不大，最多只會反覆向下調整。
湯文亮相信，很多人不同意其看法，並且引用某些專家的言論，指樓價尚有3成跌幅。他直指那些專家只是空口講白話，預測缺乏說服力。他指出，若要樓價再跌3成，一定要有非常多人賣樓，同時買樓的人又突然減少。問題是，現在甚麼人會賣樓呢？
8、帝峯．皇殿車位308萬摸出 10日賺78萬
這 機會不時屬於「你」的！如何鍊成約10日即賺70萬元？答案係「炒車位」...約10日前拆售的西南九龍帝峯．皇殿車位，每個車位閒閒地都賣逾200萬 元，消息稱，市場已錄首宗摸貨個案，帝峯．皇殿L1層雙號車位，剛以308萬元摸出，1星期有多，帳面已賺78萬元，售價料創奧運站車位新高，成交價可購 天水圍嘉湖山莊2房戶。
9、減價潮擴大：逸瓏園優惠逾26% 推30伙
西貢新盤折實呎價跌穿1萬元！信置(00083
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營業部聯席董事田兆源表示，旗下西貢逸瓏園昨晚原價加推全新價單，涉及30伙，價單平均呎價14,945元，連同各項新增優惠，總折扣連同回贈等總優惠共
佔售價逾26%，較舊有總優惠佔售價14.5%，優惠增加佔售價超過10%，折實平均呎價11,070元，當中數伙單位折實呎價僅低於1萬元。他指出，該盤新推30伙中，以5座1樓E室呎價最低，該單位實用面積666方呎，價單售價908.8萬元，折實售價665.24萬元，呎價僅9,989元。新價單30伙將於星期六發售。
10、劈價風潮：太古城2日減17萬 碧湖削33萬
二手市略為回暖，交投回升，惟市場仍不乏減價成交個案。鰂魚涌太古城南海閣中層E室，實用面積488方呎，2房園景戶，業主叫價700萬元，放盤2日，減至683萬元易手，實用呎價13,996元。
粉嶺碧湖花園3座高層H室，實用面積400方呎，2房間隔，業主開價368萬元，減價33萬元，以335萬元沽出，實用呎價8,375元。