話咁快就 1550, 美元坐滑梯 !
2011年4月30日 星期六
2011年4月28日 星期四
聯儲局維持利率不變
美元立刻跳水 !
【on.cc 東方互動 專訊】 聯儲局公開市場委員會結束一連兩日的會議，決定維持利率在0-0.25%不變。貼現率維持在0.75%，聯儲局表示，將如期在6月結束量化寬鬆措施。聯儲局在聲明又表示，勞工市場逐步改善，商品和能源價格帶動的通脹只屬過渡性質。
【on.cc 東方互動 專訊】 議息結果公布後，美元匯價持續受壓，歐元報1.4696美元，升0.36%。
【on.cc 東方互動 專訊】 美國聯儲局結束一連兩日議息會議，會後聲明指出，美國經濟正以「溫和」幅度復甦，整體就業市場情況繼續呈改善，但樓市依然低迷。通脹方面，供應憂慮令油價自上次會議以來進一步上漲，而整體通脹近月升溫，但長期通脹預期仍然受控，重申商品價格上升只會是短暫現象，故當局會維持「低息一段時間」，而未來貨幣政策走需向視乎最新數據。
【on.cc 東方互動 專訊】 聯儲局主席伯南克表示，影響第一季度增長放緩的因素可能是暫時性的，相信當前的經濟復甦是可持續的，他不清楚何時開啟緊縮周期，對他來說，低息維持較長一段時期，意味著離加息至少還有幾個月。
【on.cc 東方互動 專訊】 聯儲局主席伯南克估計，第二輪量化寬鬆政策(QE2)如期在6月結束後，只會對市場產生小影響。他指出，QE2從來不是經濟的萬態良藥。
【on.cc 東方互動 專訊】 聯儲局主席伯南克表示，標準普爾對美國債務水平作出的警告並不是甚麼大新聞。早前標普將美國的主權債務評級前景由穩定調低至負面，意味美國有可能失去AAA的最高評級。
2011年4月27日 星期三
2011年4月26日 星期二
倘結束QE2 衝擊大宗商品價
http://paper.wenweipo.com/2011/04/26/GJ1104260004.htm
美國聯儲局若結束QE2，大宗商品市場可能會受到最大的衝擊。流動性的注入已經將金屬、糧食和能源的價格推至多年來的新高，大宗商品對聯儲局的政策尤其敏感，因為價格受到通脹預期的驅動，而通脹預期又與聯儲局的每一步動作緊密相關。另外，這些市場的規模遠遠小於股市和債市，因而它們往往會隨著政策變動產生更大的波動。
在聯儲局準備結束QE2之時，一些基金經理也正為撤退做準備。倫敦大宗商品管理公司首席投資策略師柯瑞根說，若公司認為風險在增加，也許會降低某些周期性更強的大宗商品的敞口，比如能源和基本金屬。柯瑞根說：「我們已賺了6個月，不能太貪心。」
根據巴克萊資本統計，自聯儲局去年8月開始實施QE2以來，互惠基金和交易所買賣基金等機構的大宗商品持倉流入資金達到破紀錄的488億美元(3,793億港元)，截止3月底，大宗商品持倉總額達到4,120億美元(32萬億港元)。
美元反彈在望
美國聯儲局自推出第二輪量化寬鬆貨幣政策（QE2）以來，美元一直持續弱勢，上周兌一籃子貨幣匯價更跌至2008年金融海嘯以來新低。隨著市場預期聯儲局勢將收緊信貸，經濟師預測美元有望反彈。
BMO資本市場的經濟師布施表示，加息對貨幣有利。他指世界各國央行均收緊金融政策以對抗通脹升溫，聯儲局則仍然保持寬鬆貨幣政策。
■《華爾街日報》
http://paper.wenweipo.com/2011/04/26/GJ1104260006.htm
基金經理預測QE3出爐
聯儲局舉行議息會議，一般經濟師認為聯儲局將如期6月結束QE2，更會逐步收緊信貸。但有部分基金經理力排眾議，認為美國經濟和金融市場仍未穩固，聯儲局不但不會退市，相反會推出第三輪量化寬鬆貨幣政策（QE3）。
三藩市對沖基金Passport Capital管理44億美元（約342億港元）資產，基金創辦人伯班克認為，QE2對於撐起股市、商品市場和其他較高風險投資的作用「巨大」，認為QE2結束之後美國股市將下挫10%至20%。面對資產價格大縮水，伯班克認為聯儲局不會坐視不理，所以會推出QE3。
■《華爾街日報》
美國聯儲局若結束QE2，大宗商品市場可能會受到最大的衝擊。流動性的注入已經將金屬、糧食和能源的價格推至多年來的新高，大宗商品對聯儲局的政策尤其敏感，因為價格受到通脹預期的驅動，而通脹預期又與聯儲局的每一步動作緊密相關。另外，這些市場的規模遠遠小於股市和債市，因而它們往往會隨著政策變動產生更大的波動。
在聯儲局準備結束QE2之時，一些基金經理也正為撤退做準備。倫敦大宗商品管理公司首席投資策略師柯瑞根說，若公司認為風險在增加，也許會降低某些周期性更強的大宗商品的敞口，比如能源和基本金屬。柯瑞根說：「我們已賺了6個月，不能太貪心。」
根據巴克萊資本統計，自聯儲局去年8月開始實施QE2以來，互惠基金和交易所買賣基金等機構的大宗商品持倉流入資金達到破紀錄的488億美元(3,793億港元)，截止3月底，大宗商品持倉總額達到4,120億美元(32萬億港元)。
美元反彈在望
美國聯儲局自推出第二輪量化寬鬆貨幣政策（QE2）以來，美元一直持續弱勢，上周兌一籃子貨幣匯價更跌至2008年金融海嘯以來新低。隨著市場預期聯儲局勢將收緊信貸，經濟師預測美元有望反彈。
BMO資本市場的經濟師布施表示，加息對貨幣有利。他指世界各國央行均收緊金融政策以對抗通脹升溫，聯儲局則仍然保持寬鬆貨幣政策。
■《華爾街日報》
http://paper.wenweipo.com/2011/04/26/GJ1104260006.htm
基金經理預測QE3出爐
聯儲局舉行議息會議，一般經濟師認為聯儲局將如期6月結束QE2，更會逐步收緊信貸。但有部分基金經理力排眾議，認為美國經濟和金融市場仍未穩固，聯儲局不但不會退市，相反會推出第三輪量化寬鬆貨幣政策（QE3）。
三藩市對沖基金Passport Capital管理44億美元（約342億港元）資產，基金創辦人伯班克認為，QE2對於撐起股市、商品市場和其他較高風險投資的作用「巨大」，認為QE2結束之後美國股市將下挫10%至20%。面對資產價格大縮水，伯班克認為聯儲局不會坐視不理，所以會推出QE3。
■《華爾街日報》
CME Group Raises Performance Bonds For Comex Silver Futures
http://www.kitco.com/reports/KitcoNews20110425DeC_CME.html
25 April 2010, 4:01 p.m. Kitco News http://www.kitco.com/
(Kitco News) - Margins needed to trade Comex silver futures are being increased by the CME Group and will take effect after the close of business on Tuesday, the exchange said Monday in a press release.
The move by the CME Group to raise the margin needed to trade – also known as performance bonds – silver futures on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange likely won’t come as a surprise given the heavy volume and more than $4 an ounce price swing in the metal on Monday. Futures traders had talked about the possibility this would occur because of Monday’s volatility. The CME Group is the parent company for the Comex and Nymex.
25 April 2010, 4:01 p.m. Kitco News http://www.kitco.com/
(Kitco News) - Margins needed to trade Comex silver futures are being increased by the CME Group and will take effect after the close of business on Tuesday, the exchange said Monday in a press release.
The move by the CME Group to raise the margin needed to trade – also known as performance bonds – silver futures on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange likely won’t come as a surprise given the heavy volume and more than $4 an ounce price swing in the metal on Monday. Futures traders had talked about the possibility this would occur because of Monday’s volatility. The CME Group is the parent company for the Comex and Nymex.
2011年4月25日 星期一
2011年4月24日 星期日
China Imports 245 Tonnes Of Silver In February
www.zerohedge.com
From GoldCore
China Imports 245 Tonnes of Silver in February and Qatar SWF “Interested” in Buying Silver
Gold and silver rose on the open in Asia and have continued those gains so far in European trading with the Libyan military conflict leading to a safe haven bid and falls in the dollar and yen. The all time and multiyear nominal dollar highs set on March 7th ($1,444.95/oz and $36.75/oz) look set to be challenged as gold is less than 1% from its record high and silver less than 2% from its nominal recent high.
Safe haven demand continues especially in Asia and macroeconomic and geopolitical risk remains elevated. The tragedy in Japan and possibility of an ecological catastrophe has clouded the economic picture and created even more uncertainty which will lead to continuing physical demand.
In Japan, many ATMs have not been working for days now and this is leading to safe haven demand for gold. Should efforts to sort out the ATM problem not be resolved this week it could out pressure on the already strained Japanese financial system.
Iran and Other Central Banks Secretly Increasing Gold Reserves
News that Iran and other nations with large dollar currency reserves have greatly increased their gold reserves (see News) will not come as a surprise to our readers. It stands to reason that they would given the degree of exposure which most creditor nations have to the U.S. dollar. It also stands to reason as some of them do not have cordial relations with Washington and may be reluctant to fund the U.S. continuing imprudent fiscal policies.
Gold was not the only precious metal being bought with the FT reporting that the sovereign wealth fund of Qatar, the Qatar Investment Authority is reportedly interested in acquiring both and gold and silver.
The QIA has assets estimated to exceed $65 billion and this one sovereign wealth fund alone could easily corner the very small physical silver market which is worth some $36 billion at today’s prices (1 billion ounces of above ground, investment grade refined silver bullion multiply by $36 per ounce).
China Imports 245 Tonnes of Silver in February and Qatar SWF “Interested” in Buying Silver
Central banks and sovereign wealth funds with massive exposure to the dollar, such as the Russians and Chinese, are not going to shout from the roof tops their intentions to diversify into gold and silver bullion as this would lead to a surge in bullion prices and an even greater depreciation of their dollar holdings.
China imported 245.6 metric tons of silver in February. The figure is close to the 260.6 metric tons imported in February 2010 and suggests that the Chinese are more than willing to buy silver at over $30 per ounce. It also suggests that the record Chinese imports of 3,475,394 kilos seen in 2010 (a massive four fold increase from 2009) may be again attained in 2011.
This demand is likely from the private sector rather than official but it is quite possible that there has been official buying in recent months. This may have come from the Chinese State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) which manages nearly $3 trillion of currency reserves. The Chinese has experienced the collapse of a paper currency and hyperinflation as recently as 1949 and therefore appreciate the value of gold (and silver) as currencies which cannot be debased.
(Financial Times) -- Iran bought gold to cut dollar exposure
Iran has bought large amounts of gold in the international market, according to a senior Bank of England official, in a sign of how growing political pressure has driven Tehran to reduce its exposure to the US dollar.
Andrew Bailey, head of banking at the Bank of England, told an American official that the central bank had observed “significant moves by Iran to purchase gold”, according to a US diplomatic cable obtained by WikiLeaks and seen by the Financial Times.
Mr Bailey said the gold buying “was an attempt by Iran to protect its reserves from risk of seizure”.
Market observers believe Tehran has been one of the biggest buyers of bullion over the past decade after China, Russia and India, and is among the 20 largest holders of gold reserves.
They estimate it holds more than 300 tonnes of gold, up from 168.4 tonnes in 1996, the date of the most recent International Monetary Fund data.
The cable, dated June 2006, is the first official confirmation of Tehran’s buying.
Last year central banks became net buyers of bullion after 22 years of large sales, helping drive gold prices to all-time nominal highs. Trades by central banks are often kept secret.
Bankers said other Middle Eastern countries had also been quietly adding to gold holdings to diversify away from the dollar amid political tensions and volatility in currency markets.
“The totality of central bank reserves is not what is reported to the IMF,” said Philip Klapwijk, executive chairman of GFMS, a precious metals consultancy. “There’s probably another 10 per cent on top of that.”
Cables obtained by WikiLeaks cite Jordan’s prime minister as saying the central bank was “instructed to increase its holdings” of gold, and a Qatar Investment Authority official as saying the QIA was interested in buying gold and silver.
“There is no question some Middle Eastern countries are very interested in buying gold,” said George Milling-Stanley, head of government affairs at the mining industry-backed World Gold Council.
In the past two months, the political unrest in the Middle East has helped propel gold to a record price of $1,444.40 a troy ounce.
The Bank of England declined to comment on the cables, but did not dispute their contents. The central banks of Iran and Jordan and the QIA did not respond to requests for comment.QIA did not respond to requests for comment.
(MarketWatch) -- Mizuho's ATM crash may last to Tuesday or longer
Mizuho Bank's system-wide breakdown, which has led to millions of Japanese ATM users being unable to withdraw cash or receive salary payments, could have far-reaching implications and put a wider strain on Japan's banking system if its efforts to recover from the glitch fail this week.
The outages have affected so many people that Japan's Financial Services Agency, the nation's regulatory watchdog, is considering disciplining Mizuho, a person familiar with the matter said. The FSA was not immediately available for comment.
Mizuho is now facing its biggest system crisis in nearly a decade, amid a surge in demand for cash on hand as fears intensify from possible radiation leaks from a nuclear plant damaged by Friday's earthquake, coupled with the fact that most companies are increasing transactions toward the end of Japanese fiscal year through March 31.
The system crash, which Mizuho blamed on excessive deposit activity following the devastating earthquake, also comes at a time when other banks and industries are struggling to cope with intermittent power outages around the greater Tokyo region. Most banks have been forced to temporarily shut down some of their ATMs due to blackouts, while others are voluntarily shutting down their ATMs to help save power.
The retail banking unit of Mizuho Financial Group Inc. (8411.TO), Japan's third largest bank by market capitalization, said it aims to fully restore the system after the three-day weekend through Monday, but it remains unclear whether operations will return to normal operations on Tuesday.
On Sunday, Mizuho had operational level talks with its archrivals, the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ and Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp., over how they could help Mizuho with transaction settlements, in case Mizuho's troubles drag on, another person familiar with the matter said. Underscoring the gravity of the situation, the FSA has asked Mizuho's rivals to help it through this crisis.
The two lenders are considering shouldering some of Mizuho's load of unprocessed settlements. BTMU and SMBC, the core banking units of Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. and Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp. are looking into how many companies' payments they can handle without overburdening their own systems, the person said. Both banks were not immediately available for comment.
The lender's system glitch, which occurred from Tuesday, affected more than 1 million cash transfer orders worth about Y830 billion ($10.3 billion) so far.
270,000 transactions that were placed at the bank earlier this week, were processed, but 890,000 transactions including salary payments have been not yet processed, Mizuho said Sunday.
All of its 38,000 ATMs at its branches and convenience stores have been shut down between Saturday and Monday to speed up the system's recovery. In its place, Mizuho extended operating hours through the three-day weekend through Monday at its 440 branches for account holders whose salary payments have been delayed by the system problem, allowing them to withdraw up to Y100,000.
Mizuho Bank President Satoru Nishibori earlier said that the bank is still investigating the locations of the branches where the problems originated and establishing why the transactions failed to process, but determining the reason will take some time.
The breakdown is the most serious faced by Mizuho since 2002, when it experienced similar problems that led to delays in processing 2.5 million public utility payments and other account settlements.
(Bloomberg) -- Gold Climbs in New York as Allied Aircraft Attack Libyan Targets
Gold climbed for a fourth day in New York as investors sought a protection of wealth from air strikes in Libya and on concern unrest may spread in the region. Allied officials said two days of missile and aircraft strikes have effectively grounded Muammar Qaddafi’s air force.
The leader denounced the coalition allied against him, which includes the U.S., the U.K. and France, as “the party of Satan.” Yemen’s President Ali Abdullah Saleh fired his cabinet yesterday and faced a growing internal revolt. Gold futures reached a record $1,445.70 an ounce on March 7.
As “tensions in the Middle East and North Africa region increase, the precious metals, particularly gold and silver, could be poised for further gains as investors seek to diversify towards safe-haven asset types,” James Moore, an analyst at TheBullionDesk.com in London, said in a report.
(Bloomberg) -- China’s Silver Imports in February Were 245.6 Tons
China’s imports of silver in February were 245.6 metric tons, the customs agency said. Imports of platinum were 7.3 tons and palladium shipments were 3.3 tons, it said today.
From GoldCore
China Imports 245 Tonnes of Silver in February and Qatar SWF “Interested” in Buying Silver
Gold and silver rose on the open in Asia and have continued those gains so far in European trading with the Libyan military conflict leading to a safe haven bid and falls in the dollar and yen. The all time and multiyear nominal dollar highs set on March 7th ($1,444.95/oz and $36.75/oz) look set to be challenged as gold is less than 1% from its record high and silver less than 2% from its nominal recent high.
Safe haven demand continues especially in Asia and macroeconomic and geopolitical risk remains elevated. The tragedy in Japan and possibility of an ecological catastrophe has clouded the economic picture and created even more uncertainty which will lead to continuing physical demand.
In Japan, many ATMs have not been working for days now and this is leading to safe haven demand for gold. Should efforts to sort out the ATM problem not be resolved this week it could out pressure on the already strained Japanese financial system.
Iran and Other Central Banks Secretly Increasing Gold Reserves
News that Iran and other nations with large dollar currency reserves have greatly increased their gold reserves (see News) will not come as a surprise to our readers. It stands to reason that they would given the degree of exposure which most creditor nations have to the U.S. dollar. It also stands to reason as some of them do not have cordial relations with Washington and may be reluctant to fund the U.S. continuing imprudent fiscal policies.
Gold was not the only precious metal being bought with the FT reporting that the sovereign wealth fund of Qatar, the Qatar Investment Authority is reportedly interested in acquiring both and gold and silver.
The QIA has assets estimated to exceed $65 billion and this one sovereign wealth fund alone could easily corner the very small physical silver market which is worth some $36 billion at today’s prices (1 billion ounces of above ground, investment grade refined silver bullion multiply by $36 per ounce).
China Imports 245 Tonnes of Silver in February and Qatar SWF “Interested” in Buying Silver
Central banks and sovereign wealth funds with massive exposure to the dollar, such as the Russians and Chinese, are not going to shout from the roof tops their intentions to diversify into gold and silver bullion as this would lead to a surge in bullion prices and an even greater depreciation of their dollar holdings.
China imported 245.6 metric tons of silver in February. The figure is close to the 260.6 metric tons imported in February 2010 and suggests that the Chinese are more than willing to buy silver at over $30 per ounce. It also suggests that the record Chinese imports of 3,475,394 kilos seen in 2010 (a massive four fold increase from 2009) may be again attained in 2011.
This demand is likely from the private sector rather than official but it is quite possible that there has been official buying in recent months. This may have come from the Chinese State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) which manages nearly $3 trillion of currency reserves. The Chinese has experienced the collapse of a paper currency and hyperinflation as recently as 1949 and therefore appreciate the value of gold (and silver) as currencies which cannot be debased.
(Financial Times) -- Iran bought gold to cut dollar exposure
Iran has bought large amounts of gold in the international market, according to a senior Bank of England official, in a sign of how growing political pressure has driven Tehran to reduce its exposure to the US dollar.
Andrew Bailey, head of banking at the Bank of England, told an American official that the central bank had observed “significant moves by Iran to purchase gold”, according to a US diplomatic cable obtained by WikiLeaks and seen by the Financial Times.
Mr Bailey said the gold buying “was an attempt by Iran to protect its reserves from risk of seizure”.
Market observers believe Tehran has been one of the biggest buyers of bullion over the past decade after China, Russia and India, and is among the 20 largest holders of gold reserves.
They estimate it holds more than 300 tonnes of gold, up from 168.4 tonnes in 1996, the date of the most recent International Monetary Fund data.
The cable, dated June 2006, is the first official confirmation of Tehran’s buying.
Last year central banks became net buyers of bullion after 22 years of large sales, helping drive gold prices to all-time nominal highs. Trades by central banks are often kept secret.
Bankers said other Middle Eastern countries had also been quietly adding to gold holdings to diversify away from the dollar amid political tensions and volatility in currency markets.
“The totality of central bank reserves is not what is reported to the IMF,” said Philip Klapwijk, executive chairman of GFMS, a precious metals consultancy. “There’s probably another 10 per cent on top of that.”
Cables obtained by WikiLeaks cite Jordan’s prime minister as saying the central bank was “instructed to increase its holdings” of gold, and a Qatar Investment Authority official as saying the QIA was interested in buying gold and silver.
“There is no question some Middle Eastern countries are very interested in buying gold,” said George Milling-Stanley, head of government affairs at the mining industry-backed World Gold Council.
In the past two months, the political unrest in the Middle East has helped propel gold to a record price of $1,444.40 a troy ounce.
The Bank of England declined to comment on the cables, but did not dispute their contents. The central banks of Iran and Jordan and the QIA did not respond to requests for comment.QIA did not respond to requests for comment.
(MarketWatch) -- Mizuho's ATM crash may last to Tuesday or longer
Mizuho Bank's system-wide breakdown, which has led to millions of Japanese ATM users being unable to withdraw cash or receive salary payments, could have far-reaching implications and put a wider strain on Japan's banking system if its efforts to recover from the glitch fail this week.
The outages have affected so many people that Japan's Financial Services Agency, the nation's regulatory watchdog, is considering disciplining Mizuho, a person familiar with the matter said. The FSA was not immediately available for comment.
Mizuho is now facing its biggest system crisis in nearly a decade, amid a surge in demand for cash on hand as fears intensify from possible radiation leaks from a nuclear plant damaged by Friday's earthquake, coupled with the fact that most companies are increasing transactions toward the end of Japanese fiscal year through March 31.
The system crash, which Mizuho blamed on excessive deposit activity following the devastating earthquake, also comes at a time when other banks and industries are struggling to cope with intermittent power outages around the greater Tokyo region. Most banks have been forced to temporarily shut down some of their ATMs due to blackouts, while others are voluntarily shutting down their ATMs to help save power.
The retail banking unit of Mizuho Financial Group Inc. (8411.TO), Japan's third largest bank by market capitalization, said it aims to fully restore the system after the three-day weekend through Monday, but it remains unclear whether operations will return to normal operations on Tuesday.
On Sunday, Mizuho had operational level talks with its archrivals, the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ and Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp., over how they could help Mizuho with transaction settlements, in case Mizuho's troubles drag on, another person familiar with the matter said. Underscoring the gravity of the situation, the FSA has asked Mizuho's rivals to help it through this crisis.
The two lenders are considering shouldering some of Mizuho's load of unprocessed settlements. BTMU and SMBC, the core banking units of Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. and Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp. are looking into how many companies' payments they can handle without overburdening their own systems, the person said. Both banks were not immediately available for comment.
The lender's system glitch, which occurred from Tuesday, affected more than 1 million cash transfer orders worth about Y830 billion ($10.3 billion) so far.
270,000 transactions that were placed at the bank earlier this week, were processed, but 890,000 transactions including salary payments have been not yet processed, Mizuho said Sunday.
All of its 38,000 ATMs at its branches and convenience stores have been shut down between Saturday and Monday to speed up the system's recovery. In its place, Mizuho extended operating hours through the three-day weekend through Monday at its 440 branches for account holders whose salary payments have been delayed by the system problem, allowing them to withdraw up to Y100,000.
Mizuho Bank President Satoru Nishibori earlier said that the bank is still investigating the locations of the branches where the problems originated and establishing why the transactions failed to process, but determining the reason will take some time.
The breakdown is the most serious faced by Mizuho since 2002, when it experienced similar problems that led to delays in processing 2.5 million public utility payments and other account settlements.
(Bloomberg) -- Gold Climbs in New York as Allied Aircraft Attack Libyan Targets
Gold climbed for a fourth day in New York as investors sought a protection of wealth from air strikes in Libya and on concern unrest may spread in the region. Allied officials said two days of missile and aircraft strikes have effectively grounded Muammar Qaddafi’s air force.
The leader denounced the coalition allied against him, which includes the U.S., the U.K. and France, as “the party of Satan.” Yemen’s President Ali Abdullah Saleh fired his cabinet yesterday and faced a growing internal revolt. Gold futures reached a record $1,445.70 an ounce on March 7.
As “tensions in the Middle East and North Africa region increase, the precious metals, particularly gold and silver, could be poised for further gains as investors seek to diversify towards safe-haven asset types,” James Moore, an analyst at TheBullionDesk.com in London, said in a report.
(Bloomberg) -- China’s Silver Imports in February Were 245.6 Tons
China’s imports of silver in February were 245.6 metric tons, the customs agency said. Imports of platinum were 7.3 tons and palladium shipments were 3.3 tons, it said today.
2011年4月22日 星期五
美股可再漲7% 金銀處在井噴階段
news.on.cc
【on.cc 東方互動 專訊】 《巴倫週刊》稱，標普首席技術策略師 Mark Arbeter表示，美國股市的主要指標，已經突破始於4月初高點的下行趨勢。他在周四致客戶的報告中表示，標普技術分析人員目前認為，美國股市短期內有望創出新的反彈高位。
他稱，主要指數的走勢，符合該機構的看漲立場；該機構還認為，那些高貝塔值或週期性類股將再度領漲；又認為，受貨幣、財政以及匯率因素的刺激，股市的漲勢將延續至5月份。
Arbeter目前預計，標普500指數有望再漲7%左右，而後可能會在1,430點附近遭遇較大阻力。
他並認為，黃金和白銀會進一步走高。他稱，鑒於美元已持續走低，黃金、白銀以及其他許多大宗商品的價格，都將迎來井噴，會較目前水平大幅走高。
Arbeter表示，銀價似乎已經進入井噴階段，應突破每安士50美元。又指，銀價在當前週期，即使漲至每安士65美元的高點，也不會感到意外。該機構認為金價或許可以一路上漲至每安士1,650-1,800美元，屆時金價的漲勢將暫告一段落。
【on.cc 東方互動 專訊】 《巴倫週刊》稱，標普首席技術策略師 Mark Arbeter表示，美國股市的主要指標，已經突破始於4月初高點的下行趨勢。他在周四致客戶的報告中表示，標普技術分析人員目前認為，美國股市短期內有望創出新的反彈高位。
他稱，主要指數的走勢，符合該機構的看漲立場；該機構還認為，那些高貝塔值或週期性類股將再度領漲；又認為，受貨幣、財政以及匯率因素的刺激，股市的漲勢將延續至5月份。
Arbeter目前預計，標普500指數有望再漲7%左右，而後可能會在1,430點附近遭遇較大阻力。
他並認為，黃金和白銀會進一步走高。他稱，鑒於美元已持續走低，黃金、白銀以及其他許多大宗商品的價格，都將迎來井噴，會較目前水平大幅走高。
Arbeter表示，銀價似乎已經進入井噴階段，應突破每安士50美元。又指，銀價在當前週期，即使漲至每安士65美元的高點，也不會感到意外。該機構認為金價或許可以一路上漲至每安士1,650-1,800美元，屆時金價的漲勢將暫告一段落。
2011年4月21日 星期四
2011年4月20日 星期三
2011年4月18日 星期一
2011年4月17日 星期日
高 盛 唱 淡 商 品 半 年 內 走 貨
http://www.singtao.com/
(星島日報報道)在通脹升溫，加上歐債危機重燃，刺激金價連升三天，再創歷史新高，周五曾高見每盎司一千四百八十八點一八美元；銀價及油價亦齊創兩年半新高。然而華爾街大行高盛大潑冷水，警告商品升幅過高，投資風險已超越回報，建議客戶在三至六個月內減持商品投資。 現貨金價上周五一度升十四美元，每盎司升上一千四百八十八點一八美元紀錄高位，尾市報每盎司一千四百八十六點七，同樣是收市新高，升百分之零點八五，金價已連升三天，全周計金價升百分之零點八。
銀價尾市攀上每盎司四十二點九九一三美元，升百分之一點九八，續創三十一個月新高，全周升百分之五。
有分析員表示，葡萄牙和愛爾蘭債務危機惡化，而美國聯儲局在政府財赤高企情況下料會維持量化寬鬆，使美元繼續疲弱，令金價繼續被投資者追捧，成為另類保值貨幣的角色，預期金價今年內可見每盎司一七五○美元。
商品價格近期屢創新高，高盛日前發表的報告就指出，一旦全球加息潮展開，黃金需求或受壓，建議客戶在未來三至六個月減持黃金、石油和銅等商品，又把未來十二個月的商品回報預測，由原來的百分之十四調低至百分之十。高盛同時為過高的油價提出警告，認為油價過高，已脫離基本因素，未來或有高位下跌之虞。該行在在上周已撤銷向客戶買入原油、銅和棉等原材料的建議，認為投資原材料的風險，已升越潛在回報。不過，就看好大豆等農產品的短期前景。 紐約期油價格上周一攀上每桶一一三點四六美元的逾兩年半高位後，連續跌兩日，周三又重拾升軌，周五收報每桶一百零九點六六美元，升百分之一點四三，全周計仍跌近百分之三。油商指出，投資者持續看好全球最大石油消費國的經濟復甦前景，令期油回升。
澳元在上周五曾漲見一點○五七九美元，升百分之零點四三，同樣續創紀錄新高。
2011-04-17
(星島日報報道)在通脹升溫，加上歐債危機重燃，刺激金價連升三天，再創歷史新高，周五曾高見每盎司一千四百八十八點一八美元；銀價及油價亦齊創兩年半新高。然而華爾街大行高盛大潑冷水，警告商品升幅過高，投資風險已超越回報，建議客戶在三至六個月內減持商品投資。 現貨金價上周五一度升十四美元，每盎司升上一千四百八十八點一八美元紀錄高位，尾市報每盎司一千四百八十六點七，同樣是收市新高，升百分之零點八五，金價已連升三天，全周計金價升百分之零點八。
銀價尾市攀上每盎司四十二點九九一三美元，升百分之一點九八，續創三十一個月新高，全周升百分之五。
有分析員表示，葡萄牙和愛爾蘭債務危機惡化，而美國聯儲局在政府財赤高企情況下料會維持量化寬鬆，使美元繼續疲弱，令金價繼續被投資者追捧，成為另類保值貨幣的角色，預期金價今年內可見每盎司一七五○美元。
商品價格近期屢創新高，高盛日前發表的報告就指出，一旦全球加息潮展開，黃金需求或受壓，建議客戶在未來三至六個月減持黃金、石油和銅等商品，又把未來十二個月的商品回報預測，由原來的百分之十四調低至百分之十。高盛同時為過高的油價提出警告，認為油價過高，已脫離基本因素，未來或有高位下跌之虞。該行在在上周已撤銷向客戶買入原油、銅和棉等原材料的建議，認為投資原材料的風險，已升越潛在回報。不過，就看好大豆等農產品的短期前景。 紐約期油價格上周一攀上每桶一一三點四六美元的逾兩年半高位後，連續跌兩日，周三又重拾升軌，周五收報每桶一百零九點六六美元，升百分之一點四三，全周計仍跌近百分之三。油商指出，投資者持續看好全球最大石油消費國的經濟復甦前景，令期油回升。
澳元在上周五曾漲見一點○五七九美元，升百分之零點四三，同樣續創紀錄新高。
2011-04-17
2011年4月15日 星期五
2011年4月13日 星期三
宋鴻兵指美國QE2完結後 市場面臨一場豪賭
www.quamnet.com
《貨幣戰爭》作者宋鴻兵今日於微博中寫道，當6月底美國第二波量化寬鬆政策到期，市場將就此面臨一場豪賭，股市、債市、大宗商品及金銀走勢將於6月底見分曉。
宋鴻兵指出，QE2結束後美聯儲將吐出資產回籠貨幣，其後果之一是美債大跌，美元嚴重貶值，這將帶來金銀價格繼續上漲，股票市場將創下危機後新高；後果之二則是流動性收縮，資產價格下跌，同時將伴隨美元大幅升值，所有大宗商品與資產價格齊跌。
那麼大宗商品價格暴漲、風險債券價格回升、股市上揚的資金是從何而來的呢？宋鴻兵於微博中寫道，一種可怕的解釋就是由預期推動的。所有的錢都是從銀行被創造出來的，銀行資產不變而資產價格上漲，意味著存在著非流動性因素。比如，投資機構預期銀行信貸將增加而自行調高債券價格，股市、大宗商品市場亦然。他稱，如真如此，6月將非常凶險。
《貨幣戰爭》作者宋鴻兵今日於微博中寫道，當6月底美國第二波量化寬鬆政策到期，市場將就此面臨一場豪賭，股市、債市、大宗商品及金銀走勢將於6月底見分曉。
宋鴻兵指出，QE2結束後美聯儲將吐出資產回籠貨幣，其後果之一是美債大跌，美元嚴重貶值，這將帶來金銀價格繼續上漲，股票市場將創下危機後新高；後果之二則是流動性收縮，資產價格下跌，同時將伴隨美元大幅升值，所有大宗商品與資產價格齊跌。
那麼大宗商品價格暴漲、風險債券價格回升、股市上揚的資金是從何而來的呢？宋鴻兵於微博中寫道，一種可怕的解釋就是由預期推動的。所有的錢都是從銀行被創造出來的，銀行資產不變而資產價格上漲，意味著存在著非流動性因素。比如，投資機構預期銀行信貸將增加而自行調高債券價格，股市、大宗商品市場亦然。他稱，如真如此，6月將非常凶險。
2011年4月12日 星期二
2011年4月11日 星期一
偷鐵黨遍香江 舊樓剝閘拆喉
文匯報
香港文匯報訊（記者鄭佩琪、曾偉龍）國際金屬價格持續上升，銅鐵「身價」幾乎翻兩番，近期銅價升至每公斤60元，鐵價升至每斤2.5元。廢銅廢鐵有價，偷鐵黨隨即湧現，連現成的金屬製公共設施也成目標，小至鐵線、螺絲帽、水龍頭、莾液盅、廁紙架；大至舊樓鐵閘也遭「閃電式」搶劫，無孔不入。警方去年錄得1,814宗偷鐵案，較前年增加約36%。今年2月旺角區接連多幢舊樓大堂的鐵閘遭偷去，有團體將免費為區內舊樓的鐵閘加裝角鐵，力保鐵閘不失，至今已有10多幢舊樓安裝。
偷鐵賊「足跡」遍布全港，賊人見「鐵」心起，保安措施較差的舊樓，往往成為目標，居民憂心大廈變成「無掩雞籠」，未「中招」的樓宇居民立即「出招」自保。今年2月，旺角發生連環「盜閘案」，區內至少8幢舊樓鐵閘「不翼而飛」，而舊樓林立的深水，也是偷鐵黨的「搵食」地點。周先生居於深水元洲街一幢9層高唐樓，分為前、後座，住戶的水錶、食水銅喉等設於後座。周先生憶述，去年底有天黃昏時分，部分住戶下班回家，開始準備晚飯，豈料開水喉時「滴水不出」。周先生立即往後座檢查，發現約10支銅喉水管失蹤，「搞到水浸」。
匪徒再下手 隔日拆新喉
周先生說，幸好有住戶是五金工人，立即到附近的五金店舖購買銅喉，幫忙重新接駁喉管。但偷鐵賊竟「食髓知味」，隔一天再偷走3、4支新銅喉，再次水浸，住戶再度出資駁喉，並報警求助，「銅喉很值錢，被偷走那幾支，應該可賣到3,000、4,000 元。」為免再次「遭殃」，住戶趁大廈維修，在水錶安裝鐵籠，並在後座換上不鏽鋼門，防止陌生人進入。
旺角居民協會上月初獲得西九動力的資助，推行強化鐵閘計劃，免費為舊樓鐵閘施「小手術」，加裝鐵閘角鐵，把鐵閘固定，冀降低被盜機會。協助推行該計劃的油尖旺區議員黃舒明表示，加裝角鐵費用約700、800元，至今有10多幢舊樓已加裝，分布於新填地街、花園街、通菜街及荔枝角道。
「N無」樓無法團 難組織業主
但黃舒明說，最初預計有逾20幢舊樓法團要求加裝角鐵，計劃暫時未達預期，相信是因為部分「N無」樓宇未成立法團，難以組織業主，另一個原因是部分舊樓設有樓上舖。她表示，曾收到居於樓上舖舊樓的居民反映，指鐵閘不安全，但部分業主擔心加裝角鐵後會影響樓上舖的生意。由於該協會只是居民組織，自發推行計劃，並非官方機構，擔心日後如法團、業主及居民對加強鐵閘保安有爭拗，協會須承擔法律責任。
黃舒明認為，區內舊樓多數保安措施都不足，希望政府除了資助舊樓進行維修之外，同時提供保安設施的資助，「有些舊樓只有一梯兩伙，很難去聘請保安，更難安裝閉路電視、鐵閘密碼鎖」。黃舒明促請政府，因應舊樓狀況提供資助，提升舊樓的保安水平。
香港文匯報訊（記者鄭佩琪、曾偉龍）國際金屬價格持續上升，銅鐵「身價」幾乎翻兩番，近期銅價升至每公斤60元，鐵價升至每斤2.5元。廢銅廢鐵有價，偷鐵黨隨即湧現，連現成的金屬製公共設施也成目標，小至鐵線、螺絲帽、水龍頭、莾液盅、廁紙架；大至舊樓鐵閘也遭「閃電式」搶劫，無孔不入。警方去年錄得1,814宗偷鐵案，較前年增加約36%。今年2月旺角區接連多幢舊樓大堂的鐵閘遭偷去，有團體將免費為區內舊樓的鐵閘加裝角鐵，力保鐵閘不失，至今已有10多幢舊樓安裝。
偷鐵賊「足跡」遍布全港，賊人見「鐵」心起，保安措施較差的舊樓，往往成為目標，居民憂心大廈變成「無掩雞籠」，未「中招」的樓宇居民立即「出招」自保。今年2月，旺角發生連環「盜閘案」，區內至少8幢舊樓鐵閘「不翼而飛」，而舊樓林立的深水，也是偷鐵黨的「搵食」地點。周先生居於深水元洲街一幢9層高唐樓，分為前、後座，住戶的水錶、食水銅喉等設於後座。周先生憶述，去年底有天黃昏時分，部分住戶下班回家，開始準備晚飯，豈料開水喉時「滴水不出」。周先生立即往後座檢查，發現約10支銅喉水管失蹤，「搞到水浸」。
匪徒再下手 隔日拆新喉
周先生說，幸好有住戶是五金工人，立即到附近的五金店舖購買銅喉，幫忙重新接駁喉管。但偷鐵賊竟「食髓知味」，隔一天再偷走3、4支新銅喉，再次水浸，住戶再度出資駁喉，並報警求助，「銅喉很值錢，被偷走那幾支，應該可賣到3,000、4,000 元。」為免再次「遭殃」，住戶趁大廈維修，在水錶安裝鐵籠，並在後座換上不鏽鋼門，防止陌生人進入。
旺角居民協會上月初獲得西九動力的資助，推行強化鐵閘計劃，免費為舊樓鐵閘施「小手術」，加裝鐵閘角鐵，把鐵閘固定，冀降低被盜機會。協助推行該計劃的油尖旺區議員黃舒明表示，加裝角鐵費用約700、800元，至今有10多幢舊樓已加裝，分布於新填地街、花園街、通菜街及荔枝角道。
「N無」樓無法團 難組織業主
但黃舒明說，最初預計有逾20幢舊樓法團要求加裝角鐵，計劃暫時未達預期，相信是因為部分「N無」樓宇未成立法團，難以組織業主，另一個原因是部分舊樓設有樓上舖。她表示，曾收到居於樓上舖舊樓的居民反映，指鐵閘不安全，但部分業主擔心加裝角鐵後會影響樓上舖的生意。由於該協會只是居民組織，自發推行計劃，並非官方機構，擔心日後如法團、業主及居民對加強鐵閘保安有爭拗，協會須承擔法律責任。
黃舒明認為，區內舊樓多數保安措施都不足，希望政府除了資助舊樓進行維修之外，同時提供保安設施的資助，「有些舊樓只有一梯兩伙，很難去聘請保安，更難安裝閉路電視、鐵閘密碼鎖」。黃舒明促請政府，因應舊樓狀況提供資助，提升舊樓的保安水平。
2011年4月10日 星期日
Silver Price "Will Hit $50 Before Correcting"
goldnews.bullionvault.com
THE HEAD of a leading precious metals consultancy believes the Silver Price could continue to rise before a correction sets in.
"I think $50 will probably be taken out this year," said Philip Klapwijk, executive chairman of GFMS, quoted in the Financial Times.
Klapwijk does, however, sound a note of caution.
"When you see prices moving up so fast you have to be careful...I can't help but think that if we hit $50 we could see a significant correction driven by profit-taking."
Silver Prices have risen primarily as a result of strong investment demand, according to figures released by GFMS this week. The Silver Price rose 78% last year, with demand for investment the primary driver, states the World Silver Survey 2011 – produced by GFMS for the Washington-based Silver Institute.
The survey reports that a net $5.6 billion was invested in Silver last year, almost twice the figure for 2009. Industrial and jewelry demand also grew.
Supplies of Silver also rose, up 14.6% to 32,870 tonnes. Scrap supplies, net government sales and producer hedging drove much of this growth, with mine production only rising by 2.5%.
THE HEAD of a leading precious metals consultancy believes the Silver Price could continue to rise before a correction sets in.
"I think $50 will probably be taken out this year," said Philip Klapwijk, executive chairman of GFMS, quoted in the Financial Times.
Klapwijk does, however, sound a note of caution.
"When you see prices moving up so fast you have to be careful...I can't help but think that if we hit $50 we could see a significant correction driven by profit-taking."
Silver Prices have risen primarily as a result of strong investment demand, according to figures released by GFMS this week. The Silver Price rose 78% last year, with demand for investment the primary driver, states the World Silver Survey 2011 – produced by GFMS for the Washington-based Silver Institute.
The survey reports that a net $5.6 billion was invested in Silver last year, almost twice the figure for 2009. Industrial and jewelry demand also grew.
Supplies of Silver also rose, up 14.6% to 32,870 tonnes. Scrap supplies, net government sales and producer hedging drove much of this growth, with mine production only rising by 2.5%.
2011年4月9日 星期六
天将降大任于白银----论白银的国家战略储备
15656605.blog.hexun.com
钱学深
2010-12-02
美国政府曾经拥有世界上最大的白银储备。银币作为货币一直流通到上世纪六十年代末。后来白银的货币功能被废除。美元纸币一统江湖后，白银被当成普通工业原料被抛向市场。现在美国政府的白银储备已经完全耗尽。其他国家政府也基本上不再拥有白银储备。中国政府在2002年时尚有少量白银储备。2000年以前对白银市场控制很严。后来不知被谁灌了迷魂药，从2000年1月起全面放开白银经营，彻底改变了白银原料不许出口的做法，不少白银主要生产企业直接取得了出口经营权，出口企业还可以享受国家规定的退税政策。政府鼓励用白银出口创汇。用不断升值的真钱换回不断贬值的纸钱。中国的白银产量和出口量双双大幅增加。成为世界白银市场的主要货源。客观上为国际银行家打压白银价格帮了大忙。但是短短几年下来消耗巨大，元气大伤。到2010年已经明显力不从心，1至 8月，出口比上一年同期暴跌60%。
白银是电子，电气，航天，国防，能源，环保和医药等高新科技产业不可缺少的重要原材料。随着世界白银供需关系的日益紧张，白银短缺问题迟早会引起各国的高度重视。早晚会像原油和稀土一样，成为各国重要的战略资源加以储备。中国是世界最大的工业生产国。白银资源消耗巨大。如不早做准备，过多地廉价出口，换回不断贬值的美元。也许几年之后，又因产出不足，供不应求，再高价进口。里外里的赔本。两头都吃大亏。这只是从工业用途方面考虑白银的国家战略储备的重要性。但我们不应该忘记，白银和黄金一样都具有货币属性。当前随着美元的逐渐没落，世界各国都在开始思考如何建立一个公平，合理和稳定的全球货币新体系的重大问题。最近世界银行行长佐立克更是公然提出了以改进的新金本位为基础重建世界货币体系的构想。（注1）至于如何改进，这就要看各国根据自己手里的筹码讨价还价的结果了。美国拥有八千多吨黄金，欧盟拥有上万吨黄金，就连印度民间黄金储备也在一万吨之上。一旦启用新金本位，他们都是大赢家。中国央行手里捏着近两万六千亿美元不断贬值的白条，却只有一千多吨黄金。面临着十分被动的局面。美元如果长期垂而不死，中国的外汇储备就会被长期套牢，不断亏损。美元如果有朝一日“驾崩”，新金本位“登基”。中国又因美元过多，黄金过少，血汗白流，成为最大输家。
2007年《货币战争1》出版之时，书中就已大声疾呼要大幅度增加国家的黄金储备。这不是为了低买高卖投机赚差价，而是为了“谋”后美元时代的“万世”。是为人民币争得新世界货币体系的一席之地。可惜中国金融界缺乏长期的战略思维，对美元的迷恋根深蒂固。在金价从每盎司600多美元一直涨到1400 美元这一过程中，反应迟钝，屡失战机。堂堂央行，仅仅增加了500多吨黄金储备。连温州钞房团都不如。其格局之小，目光之短，悟性之差，令人扼腕。几年来形式的发展果然不出书中所料，次贷危机，金融海啸，美元狂印，世界新货币的讨论等等都一一如期而至。现如今“货币战争”一词已频繁出现于世界各大媒体。对 “货币战争”的忧虑更是各国政经首脑关注的焦点。全球“货币战争”已是战云密布，杀声四起，旌旗在望，鼓角相闻。美联储第一轮大印钞票还不过瘾，接着又来了第二轮。谁能保证它不会再来第三轮，第四轮，第Ｎ轮？作为世界储备货币最重要的就是要稳定，要守信用，美元稳定吗？守信用吗？当年尼克松单边废除布雷顿体系，悍然宣布美元与黄金脱钩，美元一口气对黄金狂贬二十多倍。事先不通知，事后不赔偿，连个道歉都没有。有如此信用记录的货币，让世人如何能有信心呢？如今美国的国力已大不如前了。产业空心化掏空了真实财富的创造力。金融魔术又彻底演砸。其结果是经济严重衰退，债务负担极其沉重。只要这些天文数字般地债务问题不解决，美元的贬值就不会停止，与此相应，黄金冲高的过程就不会中断。中国的黄金储备过少的问题就不可能回避。行动得越早就越主动，损失就越小。行动得越晚就越被动，损失就越大。越往后拖，货币当局的处境就越困难。
尽管中国目前在全球货币战争中正处于被动挨打，伤亡惨重的境地。但是扭转战局，化险为夷，跳出包围，反败为胜的机会并不是没有的。这个机会就是白银！白银对于全世界的高新科技产业而言就是一个重要的战略制高点。如果说谁控制了石油谁就控制了传统工业，那么谁控制了白银谁就控制了高新科技产业。中国是当前世界产银量名列前茅的大国。地质储量也相对丰富。这就是中国的资本。在金价每盎司接近1400多美元的时候，白银才每盎司25美元上下。我们决不应该在这样低的价位再继续贱卖这一战略性的宝贵资源。相反应当在此超低价位，集中优势兵力打歼灭战。以最小的成本尽可能多地吃进世界上一切还可以得到的白银现货，以及白银矿石，矿产和优良的相关矿业公司的控股权。以目前的银价，一千多亿人民币就可以买进全世界的所有白银存货。国际银行家们不是要打压白银价格吗？好哇，那就将计就计，给它来个一锅端。我们在鸦片战争后失去的几万万两银子也该夺回来了。中国可以不费吹灰之力轻取世界白银资源的绝对控制权。这对中国而言有三大好处：首先是低价储备了今后我国大力发展高新技术产业所必不可少的大量战略资源。第二是拥有了未来进行资源交换的大量筹码。在购买原油，铁矿，铜矿等资源时，如果被别人恶意抬价，敲竹杠，白银就成了我们手中反制对方的有力武器。中国手上应该多准备几种像白银和稀土这样的点穴武器。才能不受制于人。但最重要的是当供需关系最终不可避免地导致白银价格暴涨时，我们手中的白银就与别人手中的黄金一样成了未来有可能出现的新货币体制下一个重要的货币元素。你手里有八千吨黄金，我手里有几万吨白银。你黄金涨到每盎司一万美元，我白银每盎司也涨到几千美元。这样一来，当将来有一天那些黄金储备大国要搞世界货币新金本位时，我们就可以把银本位与金本位一起捆绑，名正言顺。几千年来，全世界的货币都是既认金也认银。所以如果要恢复金本位，自然而然就会恢复银本位。如此中国虽然在黄金储备上吃了亏，但在白银储备上却可以补回来。这样一来，进可攻世界货币新体系，退可守高新科技产业战略制高点。从而左右逢源，攻防兼备，稳立不败之地。这一战略代价极低，风险极小，收获极大，机不可失，时不再来。天将降大任于白银！
白银是一个非常小的市场，任何一个国家，甚至一些投资基金，如果认识到白银的重大战略意义，抢先下手占领这个制高点都是不难做到的。在我们大量廉价出售自己的白银资源时，一些华尔街的ETF基金正在大举吃进。等我们的白银被贱卖得差不多时，别人很可能立刻杀个回马枪，让白银价格暴涨。这样既可以对中国的高新科技产业一剑封喉，又可以在将来的世界新货币体系建立时更大程度地打压中国对制定新规则的发言权。由此造成的损失将难以估量。
我们在货币战争中的长期被动局面与政出多门，各部门间利益冲突，缺乏长远的金融战略规划和有效的管理机制有很大关系。对此，全国人大《证券法》修改小组专家组成员，全国人大《国有资产法》、《期货交易法》和《证券投资基金法（修订）》起草组成员，中国政法大学资本研究中心主任刘纪鹏教授建议“组建中央金委，打好货币战争保卫战”。他在建议中指出：
“军事战争的目的是掠夺财富，可掠夺财富的最佳手段显然不是军事战争……金融竞争是货币战争被越来越多的人所承认……现代金融具有极强的公司性和国家性。无论四大银行上市还是现代金融的品种设计，岂能交给外国投行和华尔街及香港请来的大顾问们去指挥呢？
我们必须培养又红又专的金融人才队伍。当代国际经济竞争的领域不在’陆军’制造业，而是在’空军和特殊部队’金融业……我们的’一行三会’该形成一个拳头统一指挥了，各大金融方面军的指挥员一定要由中央直接管辖….组建中央金委，与中央军委一起，让中央拥有两杆枪，培养又红又专的金融队伍，方是我们应付现代世界战争的制胜方略……我们应要敢于反思，掌握主动，能够制定出系统的规划和长远的发展战略。” （注2）
如果真的像刘纪鹏教授建议的那样组建“中央金委”（或类似机构），统一领导，组建一支强大的金融国防力量。将金融战略，经济战略，信息战略，与中国的全球发展战略融为一体。统一调研，统一谋划，统一决策，统一指挥，统一行动，那么中国在世界货币战争中的被动局面必将发生根本性的转变。
中国有句老话：“凡事预则立，不预则废”。我们能不能摆脱在国际货币战争中老是遭人暗算，经常疲于应付，一贯被动挨打的局面？能不能变被动为主动，全盘谋划，精心挑选，抢先占领一批对中国经济发展有重大战略意义的制高点？能不能集中优势兵力，找几个紧要环节，打几场关键性稀有资源的歼灭战？能不能高瞻远瞩，未雨绸缪，运筹帷幄，料敌机先，打赢几个漂亮的金融翻身仗，从而树立起敢于斗争，敢于胜利，敢为天下先的自信呢？如果有这个雄心，有这个壮志，那么我们就应当首战攻银，攻银必胜！我们一定能够在白银这个战场上建立起中国金融界的第一座凯旋门！
钱学深
2010-12-02
美国政府曾经拥有世界上最大的白银储备。银币作为货币一直流通到上世纪六十年代末。后来白银的货币功能被废除。美元纸币一统江湖后，白银被当成普通工业原料被抛向市场。现在美国政府的白银储备已经完全耗尽。其他国家政府也基本上不再拥有白银储备。中国政府在2002年时尚有少量白银储备。2000年以前对白银市场控制很严。后来不知被谁灌了迷魂药，从2000年1月起全面放开白银经营，彻底改变了白银原料不许出口的做法，不少白银主要生产企业直接取得了出口经营权，出口企业还可以享受国家规定的退税政策。政府鼓励用白银出口创汇。用不断升值的真钱换回不断贬值的纸钱。中国的白银产量和出口量双双大幅增加。成为世界白银市场的主要货源。客观上为国际银行家打压白银价格帮了大忙。但是短短几年下来消耗巨大，元气大伤。到2010年已经明显力不从心，1至 8月，出口比上一年同期暴跌60%。
白银是电子，电气，航天，国防，能源，环保和医药等高新科技产业不可缺少的重要原材料。随着世界白银供需关系的日益紧张，白银短缺问题迟早会引起各国的高度重视。早晚会像原油和稀土一样，成为各国重要的战略资源加以储备。中国是世界最大的工业生产国。白银资源消耗巨大。如不早做准备，过多地廉价出口，换回不断贬值的美元。也许几年之后，又因产出不足，供不应求，再高价进口。里外里的赔本。两头都吃大亏。这只是从工业用途方面考虑白银的国家战略储备的重要性。但我们不应该忘记，白银和黄金一样都具有货币属性。当前随着美元的逐渐没落，世界各国都在开始思考如何建立一个公平，合理和稳定的全球货币新体系的重大问题。最近世界银行行长佐立克更是公然提出了以改进的新金本位为基础重建世界货币体系的构想。（注1）至于如何改进，这就要看各国根据自己手里的筹码讨价还价的结果了。美国拥有八千多吨黄金，欧盟拥有上万吨黄金，就连印度民间黄金储备也在一万吨之上。一旦启用新金本位，他们都是大赢家。中国央行手里捏着近两万六千亿美元不断贬值的白条，却只有一千多吨黄金。面临着十分被动的局面。美元如果长期垂而不死，中国的外汇储备就会被长期套牢，不断亏损。美元如果有朝一日“驾崩”，新金本位“登基”。中国又因美元过多，黄金过少，血汗白流，成为最大输家。
2007年《货币战争1》出版之时，书中就已大声疾呼要大幅度增加国家的黄金储备。这不是为了低买高卖投机赚差价，而是为了“谋”后美元时代的“万世”。是为人民币争得新世界货币体系的一席之地。可惜中国金融界缺乏长期的战略思维，对美元的迷恋根深蒂固。在金价从每盎司600多美元一直涨到1400 美元这一过程中，反应迟钝，屡失战机。堂堂央行，仅仅增加了500多吨黄金储备。连温州钞房团都不如。其格局之小，目光之短，悟性之差，令人扼腕。几年来形式的发展果然不出书中所料，次贷危机，金融海啸，美元狂印，世界新货币的讨论等等都一一如期而至。现如今“货币战争”一词已频繁出现于世界各大媒体。对 “货币战争”的忧虑更是各国政经首脑关注的焦点。全球“货币战争”已是战云密布，杀声四起，旌旗在望，鼓角相闻。美联储第一轮大印钞票还不过瘾，接着又来了第二轮。谁能保证它不会再来第三轮，第四轮，第Ｎ轮？作为世界储备货币最重要的就是要稳定，要守信用，美元稳定吗？守信用吗？当年尼克松单边废除布雷顿体系，悍然宣布美元与黄金脱钩，美元一口气对黄金狂贬二十多倍。事先不通知，事后不赔偿，连个道歉都没有。有如此信用记录的货币，让世人如何能有信心呢？如今美国的国力已大不如前了。产业空心化掏空了真实财富的创造力。金融魔术又彻底演砸。其结果是经济严重衰退，债务负担极其沉重。只要这些天文数字般地债务问题不解决，美元的贬值就不会停止，与此相应，黄金冲高的过程就不会中断。中国的黄金储备过少的问题就不可能回避。行动得越早就越主动，损失就越小。行动得越晚就越被动，损失就越大。越往后拖，货币当局的处境就越困难。
尽管中国目前在全球货币战争中正处于被动挨打，伤亡惨重的境地。但是扭转战局，化险为夷，跳出包围，反败为胜的机会并不是没有的。这个机会就是白银！白银对于全世界的高新科技产业而言就是一个重要的战略制高点。如果说谁控制了石油谁就控制了传统工业，那么谁控制了白银谁就控制了高新科技产业。中国是当前世界产银量名列前茅的大国。地质储量也相对丰富。这就是中国的资本。在金价每盎司接近1400多美元的时候，白银才每盎司25美元上下。我们决不应该在这样低的价位再继续贱卖这一战略性的宝贵资源。相反应当在此超低价位，集中优势兵力打歼灭战。以最小的成本尽可能多地吃进世界上一切还可以得到的白银现货，以及白银矿石，矿产和优良的相关矿业公司的控股权。以目前的银价，一千多亿人民币就可以买进全世界的所有白银存货。国际银行家们不是要打压白银价格吗？好哇，那就将计就计，给它来个一锅端。我们在鸦片战争后失去的几万万两银子也该夺回来了。中国可以不费吹灰之力轻取世界白银资源的绝对控制权。这对中国而言有三大好处：首先是低价储备了今后我国大力发展高新技术产业所必不可少的大量战略资源。第二是拥有了未来进行资源交换的大量筹码。在购买原油，铁矿，铜矿等资源时，如果被别人恶意抬价，敲竹杠，白银就成了我们手中反制对方的有力武器。中国手上应该多准备几种像白银和稀土这样的点穴武器。才能不受制于人。但最重要的是当供需关系最终不可避免地导致白银价格暴涨时，我们手中的白银就与别人手中的黄金一样成了未来有可能出现的新货币体制下一个重要的货币元素。你手里有八千吨黄金，我手里有几万吨白银。你黄金涨到每盎司一万美元，我白银每盎司也涨到几千美元。这样一来，当将来有一天那些黄金储备大国要搞世界货币新金本位时，我们就可以把银本位与金本位一起捆绑，名正言顺。几千年来，全世界的货币都是既认金也认银。所以如果要恢复金本位，自然而然就会恢复银本位。如此中国虽然在黄金储备上吃了亏，但在白银储备上却可以补回来。这样一来，进可攻世界货币新体系，退可守高新科技产业战略制高点。从而左右逢源，攻防兼备，稳立不败之地。这一战略代价极低，风险极小，收获极大，机不可失，时不再来。天将降大任于白银！
白银是一个非常小的市场，任何一个国家，甚至一些投资基金，如果认识到白银的重大战略意义，抢先下手占领这个制高点都是不难做到的。在我们大量廉价出售自己的白银资源时，一些华尔街的ETF基金正在大举吃进。等我们的白银被贱卖得差不多时，别人很可能立刻杀个回马枪，让白银价格暴涨。这样既可以对中国的高新科技产业一剑封喉，又可以在将来的世界新货币体系建立时更大程度地打压中国对制定新规则的发言权。由此造成的损失将难以估量。
我们在货币战争中的长期被动局面与政出多门，各部门间利益冲突，缺乏长远的金融战略规划和有效的管理机制有很大关系。对此，全国人大《证券法》修改小组专家组成员，全国人大《国有资产法》、《期货交易法》和《证券投资基金法（修订）》起草组成员，中国政法大学资本研究中心主任刘纪鹏教授建议“组建中央金委，打好货币战争保卫战”。他在建议中指出：
“军事战争的目的是掠夺财富，可掠夺财富的最佳手段显然不是军事战争……金融竞争是货币战争被越来越多的人所承认……现代金融具有极强的公司性和国家性。无论四大银行上市还是现代金融的品种设计，岂能交给外国投行和华尔街及香港请来的大顾问们去指挥呢？
我们必须培养又红又专的金融人才队伍。当代国际经济竞争的领域不在’陆军’制造业，而是在’空军和特殊部队’金融业……我们的’一行三会’该形成一个拳头统一指挥了，各大金融方面军的指挥员一定要由中央直接管辖….组建中央金委，与中央军委一起，让中央拥有两杆枪，培养又红又专的金融队伍，方是我们应付现代世界战争的制胜方略……我们应要敢于反思，掌握主动，能够制定出系统的规划和长远的发展战略。” （注2）
如果真的像刘纪鹏教授建议的那样组建“中央金委”（或类似机构），统一领导，组建一支强大的金融国防力量。将金融战略，经济战略，信息战略，与中国的全球发展战略融为一体。统一调研，统一谋划，统一决策，统一指挥，统一行动，那么中国在世界货币战争中的被动局面必将发生根本性的转变。
中国有句老话：“凡事预则立，不预则废”。我们能不能摆脱在国际货币战争中老是遭人暗算，经常疲于应付，一贯被动挨打的局面？能不能变被动为主动，全盘谋划，精心挑选，抢先占领一批对中国经济发展有重大战略意义的制高点？能不能集中优势兵力，找几个紧要环节，打几场关键性稀有资源的歼灭战？能不能高瞻远瞩，未雨绸缪，运筹帷幄，料敌机先，打赢几个漂亮的金融翻身仗，从而树立起敢于斗争，敢于胜利，敢为天下先的自信呢？如果有这个雄心，有这个壮志，那么我们就应当首战攻银，攻银必胜！我们一定能够在白银这个战场上建立起中国金融界的第一座凯旋门！
President Barack Obama and congressional leaders reached a last-minute budget deal
www.reuters.com
With a midnight deadline looming for a government closure, the hard-fought compromise between Obama's Democrats and opposition Republicans requires lawmakers to approve stopgap funding to keep federal agencies running into next week until the budget agreement can be formally enacted.
A shutdown -- the first in more than 15 years -- would have meant furloughs for much of the federal work force, suspension of some key government services and the closing of many national monuments and parks, while potentially undermining the U.S. economic recovery.
But the biggest incentive for a deal may have been the risks that failure would have posed for Obama, his fellow Democrats and the Republicans amid signs of public frustration with the rancorous budget fight as the 2012 presidential election campaign gathers steam.
"Tomorrow, I'm pleased to announce that the Washington Monument as well as the entire federal government will be open for business," a smiling Obama said in a late-night appearance at the White House.
After days of tense negotiations and brinkmanship, Republican lawmakers said agreement was reached on $37.8 billion in spending cuts in a budget for the rest of the fiscal year, which ends September 30.
"I am pleased Senator Reid and I and the White House have been able to come to an agreement that will in fact cut spending and keep our government open," U.S. House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner told reporters.
Obama's aides and U.S. lawmakers had struggled for days to hammer out a deal, making the threat of a government shutdown look ever more possible. The two sides even had a hard time agreeing on what issues were holding up an agreement.
Democrats said they were at odds over federal funding for birth control. Republicans said spending cuts were the issue.
The Senate on Friday night hurriedly approved a short-term funding bill to keep the government running until the longer budget plan can be enacted into law sometime next week. The House was to approve the stopgap measure later and it will then go to Obama to sign into law.
Without an agreement, money to operate the federal government for the next six months would have run out at midnight on Friday and agencies such as the Internal Revenue Service would begin a partial shutdown.
Despite the apparent resolution of the impasse, the bitter political fight raised questions about the ability of Obama and a divided U.S. Congress to deal with bigger issues looming down the road, from raising the federal debt ceiling to reining in budget deficits.
"They've got to be laughing at us right now" in China, said Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman John Kerry. "How terrific that the United States of America can't make a decision."
The leadership of the world's lone remaining superpower has been consumed for days by the budgetary infighting that could bring large swathes of government to a standstill.
With a midnight deadline looming for a government closure, the hard-fought compromise between Obama's Democrats and opposition Republicans requires lawmakers to approve stopgap funding to keep federal agencies running into next week until the budget agreement can be formally enacted.
A shutdown -- the first in more than 15 years -- would have meant furloughs for much of the federal work force, suspension of some key government services and the closing of many national monuments and parks, while potentially undermining the U.S. economic recovery.
But the biggest incentive for a deal may have been the risks that failure would have posed for Obama, his fellow Democrats and the Republicans amid signs of public frustration with the rancorous budget fight as the 2012 presidential election campaign gathers steam.
"Tomorrow, I'm pleased to announce that the Washington Monument as well as the entire federal government will be open for business," a smiling Obama said in a late-night appearance at the White House.
After days of tense negotiations and brinkmanship, Republican lawmakers said agreement was reached on $37.8 billion in spending cuts in a budget for the rest of the fiscal year, which ends September 30.
"I am pleased Senator Reid and I and the White House have been able to come to an agreement that will in fact cut spending and keep our government open," U.S. House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner told reporters.
Obama's aides and U.S. lawmakers had struggled for days to hammer out a deal, making the threat of a government shutdown look ever more possible. The two sides even had a hard time agreeing on what issues were holding up an agreement.
Democrats said they were at odds over federal funding for birth control. Republicans said spending cuts were the issue.
The Senate on Friday night hurriedly approved a short-term funding bill to keep the government running until the longer budget plan can be enacted into law sometime next week. The House was to approve the stopgap measure later and it will then go to Obama to sign into law.
Without an agreement, money to operate the federal government for the next six months would have run out at midnight on Friday and agencies such as the Internal Revenue Service would begin a partial shutdown.
Despite the apparent resolution of the impasse, the bitter political fight raised questions about the ability of Obama and a divided U.S. Congress to deal with bigger issues looming down the road, from raising the federal debt ceiling to reining in budget deficits.
"They've got to be laughing at us right now" in China, said Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman John Kerry. "How terrific that the United States of America can't make a decision."
The leadership of the world's lone remaining superpower has been consumed for days by the budgetary infighting that could bring large swathes of government to a standstill.
2011年4月8日 星期五
母嬰院爆煲 醫護大逃亡
呢樣要記低 !
香港一邊說殺校減班, 一邊發生呢 D 事件, 搞笑 !
政府有無做預計呀 ?
news.on.cc
【on.cc 東方互動 專訊】 婦科爆、兒科危，內地孕婦來港產子潮拖垮本港公營醫院外，引發的骨牌效應，連帶提供嬰幼兒防疫注射及健康發展的母嬰健康院亦告「爆煲」，粉嶺母嬰健康院率 先成為重災區，每日服務的嬰幼兒，近8成為內地孕婦在港所生。有本港家長埋怨，同屬新界區的瀝源母嬰健康院要苦候數小時始獲檢查。前線醫護人員怒斥，工作 量及壓力與日俱增，當局卻懶理不加派人手，勢掀起另一股醫護人員逃亡潮。
news.on.cc
深水埗爭購奶粉多人混戰
【on.cc 東方互動 專訊】 早上10時許，大群市民在大埔道一間連鎖式日用品店排隊購買奶粉，期間有人疑因小故發生爭執並互相推撞，情況混亂，警方接報調派多名警員到場維持袟序。
香港一邊說殺校減班, 一邊發生呢 D 事件, 搞笑 !
政府有無做預計呀 ?
news.on.cc
【on.cc 東方互動 專訊】 婦科爆、兒科危，內地孕婦來港產子潮拖垮本港公營醫院外，引發的骨牌效應，連帶提供嬰幼兒防疫注射及健康發展的母嬰健康院亦告「爆煲」，粉嶺母嬰健康院率 先成為重災區，每日服務的嬰幼兒，近8成為內地孕婦在港所生。有本港家長埋怨，同屬新界區的瀝源母嬰健康院要苦候數小時始獲檢查。前線醫護人員怒斥，工作 量及壓力與日俱增，當局卻懶理不加派人手，勢掀起另一股醫護人員逃亡潮。
news.on.cc
深水埗爭購奶粉多人混戰
【on.cc 東方互動 專訊】 早上10時許，大群市民在大埔道一間連鎖式日用品店排隊購買奶粉，期間有人疑因小故發生爭執並互相推撞，情況混亂，警方接報調派多名警員到場維持袟序。
北上存款高息結構產品恐變迷債翻版
總之又是貪得個貧 !
依家去大陸銀行, 一定有人拉你去旁邊 D 櫃位又是問你是否要做某種定期, 而我同老公一定堅持唔做呢 D, 一定要去 counter 前排隊, 排幾耐都要排 ! 個 D 特種定期, 你可以唔曬排隊就可以幫到你, 當然有野啦 ! 所以做人一定要小心 !
蘋果日報全文
《偵查 NEWS直擊》【本報訊】中國半年內 4度加息，進一步拉闊中港兩地人民幣存款利率差距， 3個月定期存款相距逾兩厘。港人北上做定存賺取高息越來越普及，內地銀行覷準港人好「息」心態，今年開始積極推銷以高息存款包裝的結構性理財產品（由數種金融工具結合而成，回報與相關資產表現掛鈎）。專家提醒，貪一時高息的港人，小心隨時「中招」，因高息結構性產品，恐防是雷曼迷債翻版。
依家去大陸銀行, 一定有人拉你去旁邊 D 櫃位又是問你是否要做某種定期, 而我同老公一定堅持唔做呢 D, 一定要去 counter 前排隊, 排幾耐都要排 ! 個 D 特種定期, 你可以唔曬排隊就可以幫到你, 當然有野啦 ! 所以做人一定要小心 !
蘋果日報全文
《偵查 NEWS直擊》【本報訊】中國半年內 4度加息，進一步拉闊中港兩地人民幣存款利率差距， 3個月定期存款相距逾兩厘。港人北上做定存賺取高息越來越普及，內地銀行覷準港人好「息」心態，今年開始積極推銷以高息存款包裝的結構性理財產品（由數種金融工具結合而成，回報與相關資產表現掛鈎）。專家提醒，貪一時高息的港人，小心隨時「中招」，因高息結構性產品，恐防是雷曼迷債翻版。
2010 Silver Supply Lifted By Mine Output, Scrap And Gov’t Sales, Hedging
www.kitco.com
(Kitco News) - The global supply of silver jumped 14.6% during 2010, boosted not only by increased mine output but also by government sales, silver-scrap recycling and producer hedging, according to the World Silver Survey 2011 released by the Silver Institute Thursday.
Data in the report was compiled by the consultancy GFMS. Philip Klapwijk, executive chairman of GFMS, told Kitco News that he anticipates a further supply increase this year.
The World Silver Survey showed that total supply in 2010 climbed to 1.0568 billion ounces from 922.2 million in 2009. The largest share of supply comes from mine production, which rose by 2.5% to a record 735.9 million ounces. However, the biggest year-on-year increases in total supply came from the categories of government and scrap sales, as well as hedging.
“It’s partly price-related because clearly that’s having an impact on scrap supply,” Klapwijk. “We are seeing more scrap come back into the market, given prices as high as they are.”
For 2010, the World Silver Survey listed old silver-scrap supply of 215 million ounces, up from 188.4 million in 2009. Gains from industrial and jewelry recycling exceeded an ongoing decline in recovery from photographic sources.
Prices also played some role in government sales and producer hedging, Klapwijk said. Net government sales of silver rose to 44.8 million ounces in 2010 from 15.5 million in 2009, primarily the result of increased sales from Russia, said the Silver Survey.
The World Silver Survey showed a swing to net producer hedging of 61.1 million ounces, ending a four-year run of de-hedging. “Renewed enthusiasm to hedge silver was essentially limited to a group of by-product, rather than primary, silver miners,” the report said. These by-product producers were looking to “take advantage of higher prices to hedge non-core revenues over multi-year periods.”
Meanwhile, the 2.5% increase in global mine supply to 735.9 million ounces was aided in large part by new projects in Mexico and Argentina, said the World Silver Survey. This was the eighth straight year of annual increases, said the report.
“Growth was driven by increases from the primary silver and lead/zinc sectors, in both cases a result of significant new production capacity,” said the report. “Most importantly, the start of Penasquito’s sulfide (zinc) operation and the ramp-up of Palmarejo (primary silver) in Mexico together accounted for almost all of the country’s 13% increase last year, promoting Mexico to the position of world’s largest producer once again.”
Mexico’s output was listed at 128.6 million ounces. Other top producing nations included Peru, 116.1 million; China, 99.2 million; and Australia, 59.9 million.
Argentina’s silver-mine supply grew 20% to 20.6 million, helped by a full year of commercial production at Pirquitas, a primary-silver operation.
The report listed the following as the top five silver-producing companies: BHP Billiton, 46.6 million ounces; Fresnillo, 38.6 million; KGHM Polska Miedz, 37.3 million; Pan American Silver, 24.3 million; and Goldcorp, 23 million. Fresnillo and Pan American are primary silver producers.
While mine supply is also supported by high prices, Klapwijk pointed out that decisions on new projects were made some time ago and not during the current run-up to the highest silver prices in 31 years.
Global silver cash costs remained largely flat in 2010, said the report. They fell to $5.27 an ounce from a revised $5.29 in 2009, the report said.
The World Silver Survey looks for silver-mine supply to hit another record in 2011.
“Additions to production will come from both the primary and by-product sectors (gold and lead/zinc),” the report said. “The pipeline of projects is robust, with a significant portion of the growth we anticipate coming from the continued expansion of existing mines from 2010 levels, in addition to ‘ramp-up’ gains from properties recently commissioned.”
In particular, GFMS looks for another double-digit increase in Mexican output. The consultancy cited continued ramp-up of processing plants at Goldcorp’s Penasquito and Minera Frisco’s San Francisco del Oro toward design capacity, as well as expanded activities at Fresnillo’s Saucito and the start-up of Minera Frisco’s Concheno.
Klapwijk said he anticipates total supplies—including those other than mine production—likely will rise as well in 2011, although he also considers this a “tough call” since government sales are difficult to forecast.
“They (government sales) could moderate a bit this year,” he said. “I think scrap supply will be up a little bit and mine production will certainly grow quite significantly. We’re looking for perhaps as much as 14 million ounces more in mine production this year. And there has already been a fair amount of producer hedging in the pipeline.
“I think it’s unlikely supply will fall, and it’s more likely we’re going to see growth in supply, although not on the scale that we saw last year.”
By Allen Sykora of Kitco News; asykora@kitco.com
(Kitco News) - The global supply of silver jumped 14.6% during 2010, boosted not only by increased mine output but also by government sales, silver-scrap recycling and producer hedging, according to the World Silver Survey 2011 released by the Silver Institute Thursday.
Data in the report was compiled by the consultancy GFMS. Philip Klapwijk, executive chairman of GFMS, told Kitco News that he anticipates a further supply increase this year.
The World Silver Survey showed that total supply in 2010 climbed to 1.0568 billion ounces from 922.2 million in 2009. The largest share of supply comes from mine production, which rose by 2.5% to a record 735.9 million ounces. However, the biggest year-on-year increases in total supply came from the categories of government and scrap sales, as well as hedging.
“It’s partly price-related because clearly that’s having an impact on scrap supply,” Klapwijk. “We are seeing more scrap come back into the market, given prices as high as they are.”
For 2010, the World Silver Survey listed old silver-scrap supply of 215 million ounces, up from 188.4 million in 2009. Gains from industrial and jewelry recycling exceeded an ongoing decline in recovery from photographic sources.
Prices also played some role in government sales and producer hedging, Klapwijk said. Net government sales of silver rose to 44.8 million ounces in 2010 from 15.5 million in 2009, primarily the result of increased sales from Russia, said the Silver Survey.
The World Silver Survey showed a swing to net producer hedging of 61.1 million ounces, ending a four-year run of de-hedging. “Renewed enthusiasm to hedge silver was essentially limited to a group of by-product, rather than primary, silver miners,” the report said. These by-product producers were looking to “take advantage of higher prices to hedge non-core revenues over multi-year periods.”
Meanwhile, the 2.5% increase in global mine supply to 735.9 million ounces was aided in large part by new projects in Mexico and Argentina, said the World Silver Survey. This was the eighth straight year of annual increases, said the report.
“Growth was driven by increases from the primary silver and lead/zinc sectors, in both cases a result of significant new production capacity,” said the report. “Most importantly, the start of Penasquito’s sulfide (zinc) operation and the ramp-up of Palmarejo (primary silver) in Mexico together accounted for almost all of the country’s 13% increase last year, promoting Mexico to the position of world’s largest producer once again.”
Mexico’s output was listed at 128.6 million ounces. Other top producing nations included Peru, 116.1 million; China, 99.2 million; and Australia, 59.9 million.
Argentina’s silver-mine supply grew 20% to 20.6 million, helped by a full year of commercial production at Pirquitas, a primary-silver operation.
The report listed the following as the top five silver-producing companies: BHP Billiton, 46.6 million ounces; Fresnillo, 38.6 million; KGHM Polska Miedz, 37.3 million; Pan American Silver, 24.3 million; and Goldcorp, 23 million. Fresnillo and Pan American are primary silver producers.
While mine supply is also supported by high prices, Klapwijk pointed out that decisions on new projects were made some time ago and not during the current run-up to the highest silver prices in 31 years.
Global silver cash costs remained largely flat in 2010, said the report. They fell to $5.27 an ounce from a revised $5.29 in 2009, the report said.
The World Silver Survey looks for silver-mine supply to hit another record in 2011.
“Additions to production will come from both the primary and by-product sectors (gold and lead/zinc),” the report said. “The pipeline of projects is robust, with a significant portion of the growth we anticipate coming from the continued expansion of existing mines from 2010 levels, in addition to ‘ramp-up’ gains from properties recently commissioned.”
In particular, GFMS looks for another double-digit increase in Mexican output. The consultancy cited continued ramp-up of processing plants at Goldcorp’s Penasquito and Minera Frisco’s San Francisco del Oro toward design capacity, as well as expanded activities at Fresnillo’s Saucito and the start-up of Minera Frisco’s Concheno.
Klapwijk said he anticipates total supplies—including those other than mine production—likely will rise as well in 2011, although he also considers this a “tough call” since government sales are difficult to forecast.
“They (government sales) could moderate a bit this year,” he said. “I think scrap supply will be up a little bit and mine production will certainly grow quite significantly. We’re looking for perhaps as much as 14 million ounces more in mine production this year. And there has already been a fair amount of producer hedging in the pipeline.
“I think it’s unlikely supply will fall, and it’s more likely we’re going to see growth in supply, although not on the scale that we saw last year.”
By Allen Sykora of Kitco News; asykora@kitco.com
Investment, Industrial Demand Surge In 2010
www.kitco.com
(Kitco News) - The sharp jump in silver prices during 2010 was the result of big increases in both investment and industrial-fabrication demand, according to the World Silver Survey 2011 released by the Silver Institute Thursday.
Global silver investment rose by 40% last year to 279.3 million troy ounces, said the report, for which data was compiled by the consultancy GFMS. This resulted in a net flow into silver of $5.6 billion, almost double the amount from 2009.
Meanwhile, total fabrication demand rose 12.8% to a 10-year high of 878.8 million ounces in 2010, led by industrial uses, said the report.
“The strength of these two areas of demand is clearly illustrated in their ability to brush aside a quite marked increase in supply,” said the report.
Silver posted an average price of $20.19 per ounce in 2010, a level surpassed only in 1980 and well up from the $14.67 average of 2009, said the report. The strength has continued so far into 2011, with the London silver fixing price averaging $31.86 through the end of the first quarter.
In the Silver Survey, GFMS described itself as “positive” on the outlook for silver prices, but “cautiously so.” The consultancy said the economic backdrop for investment remains supportive since monetary policy is unlikely to be tightened “that much” in 2011 and inflation and sovereign-debt concerns will grow. This will encourage investment demand for silver and gold alike, and ongoing gains in industrial demand should be “solid,” GFMS said.
“We are, however, somewhat concerned by the extent to which the white metal has lately powered ahead of gold,” GFMS said. “We are skeptical, for instance, that there is a ‘new paradigm’ at work that justifies a move even lower in the gold:silver ratio. Moreover, we are conscious of the fact that a fair proportion of the recent investment in silver is from more speculative money that could exit the market rapidly if conditions were to change.”
As a result, GFMS said, “we would be wary of any signs that industrial demand is faltering, as this could be a trigger for a major short-term correction in silver prices that would probably bring silver’s path more into line with that of gold.”
In an interview with Kitco News, GFMS Executive Chairman Philip Klapwijk said he looks for a wide range in silver yet this year from marginally below $30 an ounce to marginally above $50. “It’s really dependent upon the investment flow being sustained or growing, or whether that investment flow for whatever reason diminishes,” he said.
ETF, Retail Investment Climb During 2010
The report said much of the silver-investment demand last year came via exchange-traded funds, which trade like a stock but track the price of the commodity. Metal is put into storage to back ETF shares, creating physical demand.
Global ETF holdings hit 582.6 million ounces last year, an increase of 114.9 million from 2009, said the Silver Survey. The iShares Silver Trust accounted for almost 40% of the increase, with notable gains also achieved by Zurcher Kantonalbank, ETF Securities and Sprott Physical Silver Trust.
There was also a jump in retail investment demand during 2010. Physical bullion bars accounted for 55.6 million ounces of new investment last year. Meanwhile, coins and medals fabrication rose 28% to a record of 101.3 million ounces.
In the U.S., over 34.6 million U.S. Silver Eagle coins were minted, well above the previous record of almost 29 million in 2009. Additionally, the Australian Kookaburra, Austrian Philharmoniker and Canadian Maple Leaf all posted record highs in 2010.
“Implied” net silver investment (which does not include coins) recorded an all-time high last year of 178 million ounces, an increase of 47% and the highest level in GFMS’s 21-year data series. Much of this was due to ETFs, the over-the-counter market and investment in physical bars.
Klapwijk said silver “clearly benefited from investors looking for hard assets which they perceived to be safe havens against the potential for higher inflation in the future.” Furthermore, investors have turned to silver due to currency weakness in general and a lack of trust in major currencies, Klapwijk said.
“Also, the fact that interest rates are low makes putting money on deposit not particularly attractive, and the ‘cost of carry’ of having positions in precious metals is pretty trivial,” he said.
Industrial Demand Climbs 20.7%, Nearly Back To 2007-2008 Levels
Industrial demand accounted for much of the 12.8% rise in total fabrication demand during 2010, the report said. Silver’s use in industrial applications alone grew by 20.7% to 487.4 million ounces. This brought industrial demand nearly back to the levels of 491.1 million in 2007 and 492.7 million in 2008, before it slumped to 403.8 million in 2009 during the global economic slowdown in many Western nations.
“There is restocking and replenishment after the declines suffered in 2009,” Klapwijk said. “There was an element of inventory rebuild going on in the industrial space. Not only that, there was a more sustainable pick-up in industrial production and demand for products that contain silver in one form or another.”
Further, there are secular trends already occurring that means more use of silver in certain applications, including photovoltaic technology (such as solar cells) and electronics, Klapwijk said.
The strong industrial demand continued into the first quarter of this year. Assuming the economy does not tank, GFMS sees this hitting a record in 2011. “I wouldn’t be too surprised if we get above 500 million ounces in industrial demand this year,” Klapwijk said.
Jewelry demand rose 5.1% to 167 million ounces, which the Silver Survey said was the first substantial rise since 2003. This was tied to strong economic growth in emerging-market nations and the improving economic picture in the industrialized world.
The use of silver in photography fell by 6.6 million ounces, which was the smallest loss in nine years as medical centers deferred conversion to digital systems, said the report. Silverware demand fell to 50.3 million ounces from 58.2 million ounces in 2009, mainly due to lower demand in India.
By Allen Sykora of Kitco News; asykora@kitco.com
(Kitco News) - The sharp jump in silver prices during 2010 was the result of big increases in both investment and industrial-fabrication demand, according to the World Silver Survey 2011 released by the Silver Institute Thursday.
Global silver investment rose by 40% last year to 279.3 million troy ounces, said the report, for which data was compiled by the consultancy GFMS. This resulted in a net flow into silver of $5.6 billion, almost double the amount from 2009.
Meanwhile, total fabrication demand rose 12.8% to a 10-year high of 878.8 million ounces in 2010, led by industrial uses, said the report.
“The strength of these two areas of demand is clearly illustrated in their ability to brush aside a quite marked increase in supply,” said the report.
Silver posted an average price of $20.19 per ounce in 2010, a level surpassed only in 1980 and well up from the $14.67 average of 2009, said the report. The strength has continued so far into 2011, with the London silver fixing price averaging $31.86 through the end of the first quarter.
In the Silver Survey, GFMS described itself as “positive” on the outlook for silver prices, but “cautiously so.” The consultancy said the economic backdrop for investment remains supportive since monetary policy is unlikely to be tightened “that much” in 2011 and inflation and sovereign-debt concerns will grow. This will encourage investment demand for silver and gold alike, and ongoing gains in industrial demand should be “solid,” GFMS said.
“We are, however, somewhat concerned by the extent to which the white metal has lately powered ahead of gold,” GFMS said. “We are skeptical, for instance, that there is a ‘new paradigm’ at work that justifies a move even lower in the gold:silver ratio. Moreover, we are conscious of the fact that a fair proportion of the recent investment in silver is from more speculative money that could exit the market rapidly if conditions were to change.”
As a result, GFMS said, “we would be wary of any signs that industrial demand is faltering, as this could be a trigger for a major short-term correction in silver prices that would probably bring silver’s path more into line with that of gold.”
In an interview with Kitco News, GFMS Executive Chairman Philip Klapwijk said he looks for a wide range in silver yet this year from marginally below $30 an ounce to marginally above $50. “It’s really dependent upon the investment flow being sustained or growing, or whether that investment flow for whatever reason diminishes,” he said.
ETF, Retail Investment Climb During 2010
The report said much of the silver-investment demand last year came via exchange-traded funds, which trade like a stock but track the price of the commodity. Metal is put into storage to back ETF shares, creating physical demand.
Global ETF holdings hit 582.6 million ounces last year, an increase of 114.9 million from 2009, said the Silver Survey. The iShares Silver Trust accounted for almost 40% of the increase, with notable gains also achieved by Zurcher Kantonalbank, ETF Securities and Sprott Physical Silver Trust.
There was also a jump in retail investment demand during 2010. Physical bullion bars accounted for 55.6 million ounces of new investment last year. Meanwhile, coins and medals fabrication rose 28% to a record of 101.3 million ounces.
In the U.S., over 34.6 million U.S. Silver Eagle coins were minted, well above the previous record of almost 29 million in 2009. Additionally, the Australian Kookaburra, Austrian Philharmoniker and Canadian Maple Leaf all posted record highs in 2010.
“Implied” net silver investment (which does not include coins) recorded an all-time high last year of 178 million ounces, an increase of 47% and the highest level in GFMS’s 21-year data series. Much of this was due to ETFs, the over-the-counter market and investment in physical bars.
Klapwijk said silver “clearly benefited from investors looking for hard assets which they perceived to be safe havens against the potential for higher inflation in the future.” Furthermore, investors have turned to silver due to currency weakness in general and a lack of trust in major currencies, Klapwijk said.
“Also, the fact that interest rates are low makes putting money on deposit not particularly attractive, and the ‘cost of carry’ of having positions in precious metals is pretty trivial,” he said.
Industrial Demand Climbs 20.7%, Nearly Back To 2007-2008 Levels
Industrial demand accounted for much of the 12.8% rise in total fabrication demand during 2010, the report said. Silver’s use in industrial applications alone grew by 20.7% to 487.4 million ounces. This brought industrial demand nearly back to the levels of 491.1 million in 2007 and 492.7 million in 2008, before it slumped to 403.8 million in 2009 during the global economic slowdown in many Western nations.
“There is restocking and replenishment after the declines suffered in 2009,” Klapwijk said. “There was an element of inventory rebuild going on in the industrial space. Not only that, there was a more sustainable pick-up in industrial production and demand for products that contain silver in one form or another.”
Further, there are secular trends already occurring that means more use of silver in certain applications, including photovoltaic technology (such as solar cells) and electronics, Klapwijk said.
The strong industrial demand continued into the first quarter of this year. Assuming the economy does not tank, GFMS sees this hitting a record in 2011. “I wouldn’t be too surprised if we get above 500 million ounces in industrial demand this year,” Klapwijk said.
Jewelry demand rose 5.1% to 167 million ounces, which the Silver Survey said was the first substantial rise since 2003. This was tied to strong economic growth in emerging-market nations and the improving economic picture in the industrialized world.
The use of silver in photography fell by 6.6 million ounces, which was the smallest loss in nine years as medical centers deferred conversion to digital systems, said the report. Silverware demand fell to 50.3 million ounces from 58.2 million ounces in 2009, mainly due to lower demand in India.
By Allen Sykora of Kitco News; asykora@kitco.com
2011年4月7日 星期四
Silver is Approaching Stage Two of its Bull Market
goldsilver.com
Back in April 2007, I wrote about the three stages that appear in every bull market, and more to the point, that gold was approaching the end of stage one. Gold back then was still trading around $690, and therefore well below its then record high of $850 reached in January 1980. My view was that “gold looks ready to make a new all-time high. When that happens, stage two begins. There will not yet be widespread excitement about gold in the next stage, because that won't occur until stage three. But when gold makes a new record high, and particularly after it breaks into a 4-digit price, people will begin paying attention.”
I wrote a follow-up article in November 2009 entitled Welcome to Stage Two of Gold's Bull Market, just two months after gold broke above $1,000. Focusing on the change in prevailing sentiment, I noted how differently gold was being treated. "During the first stage of a bull market, the media and most investors alike focus on past issues, rather than future potential. Over the past decade one consequently heard all the reasons not to own the gold…But there is a notable difference in this stage compared to stage one. Look how many people are writing and talking about gold. Gold has moved from apathy and neglect – stage one characteristics – to growing attention. But importantly, instead of embracing gold and analyzing it to determine relative value, today’s attention is one of widespread disbelief and skepticism that gold can climb higher. These are exactly the responses one should expect to emanate from stage two." I concluded by noting that at some unpredictable point in the future, gold will enter stage three "when gold no longer is relatively good value."
I did not make any mention of silver in the above two articles. It too has three stages, but silver is still mired in stage one, which began in February 1991 after silver had collapsed to $3.50. It was an astounding 93% decline from its January 1980 peak of $50. But as we can see on the following chart, $3.50 was silver’s low, and its price has been rising ever since.
From its $50 high in January 1980 to its $3.50 low in February 1991, the weak hands were shaken out. At that point, the accumulation by strong hands – who were buying because the recognized that silver was an exceptional bargain – became the dominant force. Their buying power was stronger than the selling pressure of the weak hands, and the price of silver responded by starting to climb. It was classic stage one action, but here’s the important point.
Silver is still in stage one. It won’t advance into stage two until $50 is exceeded, just like gold did not enter stage two until its previous high of $850 was hurdled.
I expect that silver will exceed $50 this year, which is a point of view I first mentioned in my outlook for 2010.
Admittedly, I was a little early with my forecast about when gold would enter stage two. So perhaps I will again be early by forecasting that silver will enter stage two of its bull market this year. Regardless of the accuracy of my timing, one thing is clear. Because it is still in stage one, silver remains good value.
Back in April 2007, I wrote about the three stages that appear in every bull market, and more to the point, that gold was approaching the end of stage one. Gold back then was still trading around $690, and therefore well below its then record high of $850 reached in January 1980. My view was that “gold looks ready to make a new all-time high. When that happens, stage two begins. There will not yet be widespread excitement about gold in the next stage, because that won't occur until stage three. But when gold makes a new record high, and particularly after it breaks into a 4-digit price, people will begin paying attention.”
I wrote a follow-up article in November 2009 entitled Welcome to Stage Two of Gold's Bull Market, just two months after gold broke above $1,000. Focusing on the change in prevailing sentiment, I noted how differently gold was being treated. "During the first stage of a bull market, the media and most investors alike focus on past issues, rather than future potential. Over the past decade one consequently heard all the reasons not to own the gold…But there is a notable difference in this stage compared to stage one. Look how many people are writing and talking about gold. Gold has moved from apathy and neglect – stage one characteristics – to growing attention. But importantly, instead of embracing gold and analyzing it to determine relative value, today’s attention is one of widespread disbelief and skepticism that gold can climb higher. These are exactly the responses one should expect to emanate from stage two." I concluded by noting that at some unpredictable point in the future, gold will enter stage three "when gold no longer is relatively good value."
I did not make any mention of silver in the above two articles. It too has three stages, but silver is still mired in stage one, which began in February 1991 after silver had collapsed to $3.50. It was an astounding 93% decline from its January 1980 peak of $50. But as we can see on the following chart, $3.50 was silver’s low, and its price has been rising ever since.
From its $50 high in January 1980 to its $3.50 low in February 1991, the weak hands were shaken out. At that point, the accumulation by strong hands – who were buying because the recognized that silver was an exceptional bargain – became the dominant force. Their buying power was stronger than the selling pressure of the weak hands, and the price of silver responded by starting to climb. It was classic stage one action, but here’s the important point.
Silver is still in stage one. It won’t advance into stage two until $50 is exceeded, just like gold did not enter stage two until its previous high of $850 was hurdled.
I expect that silver will exceed $50 this year, which is a point of view I first mentioned in my outlook for 2010.
Admittedly, I was a little early with my forecast about when gold would enter stage two. So perhaps I will again be early by forecasting that silver will enter stage two of its bull market this year. Regardless of the accuracy of my timing, one thing is clear. Because it is still in stage one, silver remains good value.
2011年4月6日 星期三
Congress still billions apart on budget deal
傾唔掂數就搞笑了 !
finance.yahoo.com
By Andy Sullivan
finance.yahoo.com
By Andy Sullivan
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Congressional negotiators on Wednesday raced against a looming deadline to agree on billions of dollars in spending cuts and find a budget deal that keeps the federal government operating beyond Friday.
With time running short, Republican and Democratic negotiators struggled to find a compromise that would avert a federal government shutdown that could throw hundreds of thousands of employees out of work.
Senate Democratic leader Harry Reid said the budget talks were "constantly evolving" and accused Republicans of changing the terms of the debate ahead of the midnight Friday deadline.
"Every time we agree to meet in the middle they move where the middle is," Reid said as the Senate opened on Wednesday. "We stand here with fewer than 72 hours on the clock ... It's time to get the job done."
Negotiators had tentatively agreed on a figure of $33 billion earlier this week, but House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner, a Republican, is now pushing for a target of $40 billion.
The two sides also must resolve what programs would go under the knife to satisfy Republican demands for sharp spending cuts in the current fiscal year.
Separate negotiating sessions at the White House and the Capitol on Tuesday failed to produce an agreement between Boehner and Democrats, and they blamed each other for the impasse.
The White House said President Barack Obama could meet with lawmakers again on Wednesday. But aides for Boehner and Reid said there was no meeting with Obama scheduled yet.
The budget showdown is the biggest political test for both parties since Republicans swept to power in the House and made big Senate gains in last year's elections on promises to slash government spending and reduce the federal government.
Obama vowed to keep negotiators at work until they agree on a budget for the remainder of the fiscal year, which ends on September 30. Temporary funding expires at midnight on Friday.
"The only question is whether politics or ideology are going to get in the way of preventing a government shutdown," he told reporters after Tuesday's White House meeting failed to find common ground.
2011年4月5日 星期二
中國人民銀行又加息 0.25%
中國人民銀行網
中国人民银行决定，自2011年4月6日起上调金融机构人民币存贷款基准利率。金融机构一年期存贷款基准利率分别上调0.25个百分点，其他各档次存贷款基准利率及个人住房公积金贷款利率相应调整。
2011年4月2日 星期六
China May Corner Gold Market
goldsilver.com
China has likely begun a campaign to convert its dollars to gold that could end up with the nation cornering the gold market, says Richard Lehmann, editor of the Forbes/Lehmann Income Security Investor newsletter. China is alarmed about potential weakness for the dollar, he says in an interview with Steve Forbes. So “I’m concerned that basically China is probably already on a program to diversify the dollar into gold. I don’t think they want any other fiat currencies or want to minimize that amount.”
China has likely begun a campaign to convert its dollars to gold that could end up with the nation cornering the gold market, says Richard Lehmann, editor of the Forbes/Lehmann Income Security Investor newsletter. China is alarmed about potential weakness for the dollar, he says in an interview with Steve Forbes. So “I’m concerned that basically China is probably already on a program to diversify the dollar into gold. I don’t think they want any other fiat currencies or want to minimize that amount.”
If China buys enough gold, at some point it can simply dictate the price, Lehmann says. And it has the means to do so, given that Chinese currency reserves total almost $3 trillion, and the world’s gold supply is now worth about $5 trillion, he says.
So China could “in one stroke, basically take control of the gold market and tie the dollar to gold so that effectively, if every six months the dollar deteriorates 5 percent, they can just upgrade the stated price at which they wanted to buy gold and thereby upgrade and up-value their gold reserves, but also keep the dollar in check.”
With plenty of other investors buying gold too, many experts expect it to continue rising. Richard Russell, author of the Dow Theory newsletter, says in a commentary obtained by King World News that the precious metal may reach $6,000 an ounce.
Spot gold was at $1,407.40 an ounce near midday Thursday.
Silver to outperform gold in 2011
goldsilver.com
Silver promises to become the nextbig buzzword among investors in 2011 and beyond, according to one of the investment industry's most prescient and successful experts on precious metals.
Eric Sprott is the founder of the Toronto-based investment firm, Sprott Asset Management LP. His renowned hedge fund, Sprott Hedge Fund LP, is heavily weighted in precious metals and has generated an estimated 23% annualized return over the past decade. Other similarly oriented funds under his stewardship have also been stellar performers in recent years.
He's now so bullish on silver that he launched the $575 million Sprott Physical Silver Trust in November of last year as he believes that: "Silver will be the investment of the decade."
"I think that silver could easily get to $50 this year," he tells BNWnews.ca.
This all bodes especially well for publicly traded companies that are already mining silver, he says. Likewise for ones that are developing primary silver deposits or gold deposits with plenty of silver as a byproduct.
"If the price of silver continues to go up, silver stocks are going to perform even better," Sprott adds.
Meanwhile, Sprott says the big catalyst for surging silver prices in the coming years will be exponentially increasing investment demand, which is already beginning to overwhelm existing silver supplies. The mining industry only produces around 800 tonnes of silver per annum. This is a relatively inelastic supply, regardless of silver prices, he adds.
As household investors are becoming increasingly jittery about the debasement of the U.S. dollar and other major currencies, they are loading up in record numbers on silver bars, coins and silver-denominated exchange traded funds, Sprott says.
However, there's also a quantum shift in investment demand taking place among big players in the precious metals market, including India (which is aiming to increase its imports by about 77 million ounces per annum), and of course China.
"China's net imports of silver were 112 million ounces last year. In 2005, they were net exporters of 100 million ounces," he says.
"That's a 200 million ounce shift in an 800 million ounce annual market that seldom ever grows because production hardly ever goes up. So where's it all going to come from? We don't know."
In fact, silver promises to outshine gold over the coming years, Sprott says. "Silver is the poor man's gold. Gold has had a great run for the past 11 years. But I absolutely believe that silver will outperform gold this year. Currently, there's more investment dollars going into silver than into gold."
Such a game-changing scenario should recalibrate the gold to silver pricing ratio in silver's favor, thereby eventually restoring it to its traditional level of about 16 to 1, he says. "It's the easiest call of all time."
"Silver as a currency always traded in a ratio of around 16 to 1 compared to gold, when it was a currency in the U.S. and the U.K. The current ratio is 48 to 1. If we go back to a 16 to 1 ratio, the implied price for silver would be $85.62 (per ounce)." he adds.
"On that basis, if gold goes to $1,600, then that would value silver at $100. And we certainly think that gold is going to $1,600. In fact, I'm willing to bet that this ratio will overshoot on the downside. It might even get to 10 to one."
The only reason why silver is still trading at a 48 to 1 ratio to bullion's spot price is that its price is being "manipulated" by big banks, Sprott says. That's because they don't want precious metals to become a popular alternative currency to Fiat money (currencies that are not backed by hard assets).
"Then there's also a huge short position out there on silver," he adds.
But time is on silver's side, he says, as the sovereignty debt crisis deepens in Europe and a continued policy of qquantitative easing in the U.S. continues to undermine the value of the greenback.
Eric Sprott
The Mechanism Of Chinese Silver Accumulation
goldsilver.com
I was gratified to see how well my recent article (Is China Behind The Big Silver Short Dec 25th, 2010) was received, when over 50 websites worldwide picked it up in the first 24 hours. But I am afraid that a fair bit of confusion was created by that article, which I want to clarify here.
First, I am not presenting this as fact. I am presenting this as a theory that explains the observable facts.
With no transparency in the banking industry, we will never get a chance to see the swap books of JP Morgan or HSBC to find out which of their clients are shorting silver, or how much of the money behind silver shorts comes from JPM's own proprietary trading desk, and this is how it SHOULD be. But the presumption IS that the CFTC is monitoring these books, and would perform their duty to investigate any clearly manipulative and excessively large short positions not being held by legitimate hedgers of mine production. Sadly, we cannot depend on the CFTC to put fair, realistic position limits in place, or even to enforce the unrealistic position limits already in place, which are far too high compared to annual silver production and compared to above ground silver inventories to actually succeed in limiting anything.
Since the CFTC is just another captured "regulatory agency" like the SEC and there will never be any transparency in the shady operations of the mega banks, let's look at the circumstantial evidence available to us and build a case against them, just as any criminal investigator would: using method, means, motive, and opportunity.
METHOD
Last week's article never intended to state that China had a NET SHORT POSITION IN SILVER. The title of the article was in question form, and the body of the article explained my theory that the Chinese have both long and offsetting short positions in silver, WHICH MAY RESULT IN COMBINED NET POSITION OF ZERO. I stated that the Chinese were using these opposing positions, in which China may hold the same exact same number of long COMEX future contracts and short COMEX future contracts resulting in no net long or short position, AS A MECHANISM WHO'S PURPOSE IS TO ACCUMULATE SILVER METAL AND DISPOSE OF EXCESS US DOLLAR RESERVES, which are constantly accumulating in the Chinese Central Bank month after month as a result of the persistent trade deficit. The brilliance of this mechanism is that it could allow the Chinese to secretly drain physical silver metal inventory away from the COMEX without spiking the market price of silver, which would hurt their producers and exporters. They merely need to hold their long contracts to maturity and take delivery of the physical silver, while selling their short contracts before maturity for cash, and using the proceeds to buy more short contracts with maturities further into the future (roll their shorts forward for longer dated shorts). The money they lose on the shorts (paper) as the silver price gradually climbs can just be considered additional acquisition cost on the longs (silver bars).
MEANS
We Americans have been accumulating Chinese produced goods for many years now, about four times the amount of American goods being consumed by the Chinese. We settle the difference in US dollars, a good deal for the US: we trade freshly printed paper for scarce resources and labor. The Chinese already pay for all the American goods they require by exchanging a greater quantity of their own goods, so they are constantly accumulating US dollar reserves in the Chinese Central Bank, and want to find a way to use or invest these dollars so they don't sit idle. As these dollars continue to build up in China, the Chinese have accumulated nearly a trillion dollars worth of US Treasury bonds, and another trillion dollars worth of US Agency bonds (bonds of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae). All these bonds pay a below market rate of interest because they are implicitly or explicitly guaranteed by the US government, but it still amounts to more than allowing the reserve dollars to remain idle in the Chinese Central bank.
MOTIVE
But now the Chinese realize that:
The principal returned on their maturing bonds is worth less and less every time because of the incessant quantitative easing (money printing) by the federal reserve, which is a form of gradual default
Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and even the US Treasury may default outright on their bonds at some point in time
Hard assets and commodities represent a safer store of value than fiat currency
One measure that the Chinese have taken is to reduce their purchases of US Treasury Bonds, even though the trade deficit with the US continues at high levels. In January 2008, China was the single largest buyer of US Treasury Bonds, with purchases totaling $153 billion. In September 2008, the Chinese became the largest holder of US Treasury bonds, surpassing the Japanese for the first time.
By June 2009, China became a net seller of US Treasury bonds, and their purchases have continually moved to the shorter maturities. According the US Treasury Website, Chinese holdings of US Treasury bonds have declined by about 4% year over year from October 2009 to October 2010, even though they have been steadily accumulating treasuries since July 2010.
According to a recent Bloomberg article, China imported 209 metric tons of gold during the first ten months of 2010, compared to 49 tons imported in all of 2009. Even though they are the world's biggest gold producer, they exported zero tons in 2009. Only India consumes more. Although India's gold consumption is mainly in the form of jewelry, this is deceptive. The Indians may wear it around their necks and wrists, but they use it as more of a savings account, especially in rural India. The savings of Chinese citizens amount to about 40% of their personal income, so what more perfect vehicle than gold bullion to protect their savings from inflation and government instability?
In April 2009, China's Central Bank announced that they had covertly accumulated 454 tons of gold since 2003, raising the official figure on Chinese gold reserves from 600 tons to 1054 tons in one day, after remaining unchanged for six years.
Since the Chinese are wisely accumulating gold, why not silver?We have no public announcement by the Chinese Central Bank to go by, or any official figures of their silver holdings (if any), so we need to see if we can base a theory on the available facts.
The Chinese have a long established cultural affinity for silver. Silver began to be used as a currency in Guangdong, China in 1423 when it became legal tender for payment of taxes. Provincial taxes had to be remitted to the capital in silver after 1465. In 1914, the National Currency Ordinance established the Silver Dollar as the national currency of the Republic of China. In 1949 the incoming Communist regime took China off the silver standard, but there are still many Chinese alive today who can remember a time when silver was used as money in China. In 2004, China legalized private ownership of gold and silver bullion for its private citizens, and in 2008 they began actively encouraging their people to invest their retirement savings in gold and silver. The Chinese word for "bank" uses the same symbol as silver.
So the primary MOTIVE of the Chinese Central Bank in accumulating silver is to wisely transfer dollar reserves to tangible assets, as they have already admitted they are doing with gold, to protect themselves against the out of control money printing by the Fed.
Another MOTIVE is to start an asset backed currency at some time in the future.As the US dollar is continually overprinted by the Fed, its days as the world's reserve currency are numbered. The Chinese are just biding their time, trying to cash in as much of their US debt holdings (while they still maintain SOME purchasing power), before the day when the Yuan ultimately becomes the world's reserve currency by default. The first steps have already been put into place, such as the currency swaps and bilateral trade agreements with Brazil, Australia, Indonesia, Turkey and Russia. These countries all have natural resources that China needs, and are markets for exports of Chinese finished products. When the dollar, pound and euro implode from overprinting, the world will need a new reserve currency, and will not trust another one consisting of nothing but unbacked fiat paper. By accumulating a huge cache of gold and silver, the traditional, historical monetary metals, the Chinese will be ready to back the Yuan when the world's oil exporters will be demanding payment in hard assets. The level of gold/silver redeemability chosen for the Yuan will determine the value of all other world currencies from that day forward, by their free market exchange rate with the Yuan.
A third MOTIVE for the Chinese to be accumulating silver now is the increasing necessity of silver as a raw material for high tech goods produced in China.There is no substitute for silver in many applications, and the demand is the most inelastic of any commodity. China would like to dominate future production of solar panels, switches, flat panel TV's, computers, cell phones, GPS units, batteries of all kinds, especially hybrid car batteries, silver bearings, silver solder, and the list goes on. A ready stockpile of silver will protect the productive capacity Chinese industry in the face of expected future silver shortages.
OPPORTUNITY
I now consider it much more likely that the Chinese Central Bank has it's short COMEX silver position with HSBC bank, the largest international bank in China and known to have a huge silver short position, (which is unlikely to be a legitimate producer hedge), and probably have their corresponding long COMEX silver position with JP Morgan, although this might also be with HSBC. I am just speculating that keeping the positions at two different banks, under two different names, would help to camouflage their strategy of accumulating precious metals and dumping US dollars. With all the global banking secrecy, there is never any shortage of opportunity to unload a bunch of US dollars. But their window of opportunity is closing because of the historically low inventory levels of silver at the COMEX.
This opportunity appears to be coming to an end with looming delivery defaults at the COMEX. In September 2010, there were 3002 silver contracts standing for delivery at the COMEX on first notice day, August 30, 2010. Of those, 84% of the holders (2519 contracts totaling 12.595 million oz) actually took physical delivery, In the next delivery month, December 2010, there were were 17,208 contracts standing for delivery on first notice day, November 26, 2010. Using the same 84% ratio of contracts that actually took delivery in September (presumably 16%, probably more, were talked into settling in cash, likely at a hefty premium to the contract's value based on spot), that leaves 72.3 million ounces of silver actually delivered to long contract holders by the COMEX in December 2010, more than six times as many silver bars as delivered three months earlier in September. As of January 6, 2011 the COMEX released inventory figures of only 44.9 million remaining ounces of silver registered for delivery.
There is an internet rumor going around that billionaire hedge funds (on the advice of former JP Morgan traders and in competition with the Chinese) settled their December long contracts at expiration for large cash premiums by posting the necessary cash and demanding (threatening) to take physical delivery on their long contracts. This would help explain the 9% gain in the price of silver during November, on top of a 14% gain in September and a 9% gain in October, never once having fallen below the 20 day, 50 day, or 200 day Moving Average during those three months.
Here is a link to a financial message board where an apparent market insider posted Wednesday that the participants were so happy with their easy COMEX silver profits in December, that they plan to make much larger purchases of COMEX silver long contracts in the last few weeks of February, 2011, and stand for delivery in March, the next delivery month for COMEX silver. I will be looking at the March COMEX silver delivery figures with great interest, and will not be at all surprised to see major gains in the February and March price of silver. The post also warns of a planned takedown of gold (and indirectly, silver) during the month of January in order to cover some of their silver shorts (scare investors into selling their silver) in time to minimize the banksters' pain in March. This is portrayed as a desperate, last resort tactic since there are enough existing gold inventories available for the banksters to work with, but no silver and buying silver on the open market would only spike the price.
I was gratified to see how well my recent article (Is China Behind The Big Silver Short Dec 25th, 2010) was received, when over 50 websites worldwide picked it up in the first 24 hours. But I am afraid that a fair bit of confusion was created by that article, which I want to clarify here.
First, I am not presenting this as fact. I am presenting this as a theory that explains the observable facts.
With no transparency in the banking industry, we will never get a chance to see the swap books of JP Morgan or HSBC to find out which of their clients are shorting silver, or how much of the money behind silver shorts comes from JPM's own proprietary trading desk, and this is how it SHOULD be. But the presumption IS that the CFTC is monitoring these books, and would perform their duty to investigate any clearly manipulative and excessively large short positions not being held by legitimate hedgers of mine production. Sadly, we cannot depend on the CFTC to put fair, realistic position limits in place, or even to enforce the unrealistic position limits already in place, which are far too high compared to annual silver production and compared to above ground silver inventories to actually succeed in limiting anything.
Since the CFTC is just another captured "regulatory agency" like the SEC and there will never be any transparency in the shady operations of the mega banks, let's look at the circumstantial evidence available to us and build a case against them, just as any criminal investigator would: using method, means, motive, and opportunity.
METHOD
Last week's article never intended to state that China had a NET SHORT POSITION IN SILVER. The title of the article was in question form, and the body of the article explained my theory that the Chinese have both long and offsetting short positions in silver, WHICH MAY RESULT IN COMBINED NET POSITION OF ZERO. I stated that the Chinese were using these opposing positions, in which China may hold the same exact same number of long COMEX future contracts and short COMEX future contracts resulting in no net long or short position, AS A MECHANISM WHO'S PURPOSE IS TO ACCUMULATE SILVER METAL AND DISPOSE OF EXCESS US DOLLAR RESERVES, which are constantly accumulating in the Chinese Central Bank month after month as a result of the persistent trade deficit. The brilliance of this mechanism is that it could allow the Chinese to secretly drain physical silver metal inventory away from the COMEX without spiking the market price of silver, which would hurt their producers and exporters. They merely need to hold their long contracts to maturity and take delivery of the physical silver, while selling their short contracts before maturity for cash, and using the proceeds to buy more short contracts with maturities further into the future (roll their shorts forward for longer dated shorts). The money they lose on the shorts (paper) as the silver price gradually climbs can just be considered additional acquisition cost on the longs (silver bars).
MEANS
We Americans have been accumulating Chinese produced goods for many years now, about four times the amount of American goods being consumed by the Chinese. We settle the difference in US dollars, a good deal for the US: we trade freshly printed paper for scarce resources and labor. The Chinese already pay for all the American goods they require by exchanging a greater quantity of their own goods, so they are constantly accumulating US dollar reserves in the Chinese Central Bank, and want to find a way to use or invest these dollars so they don't sit idle. As these dollars continue to build up in China, the Chinese have accumulated nearly a trillion dollars worth of US Treasury bonds, and another trillion dollars worth of US Agency bonds (bonds of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae). All these bonds pay a below market rate of interest because they are implicitly or explicitly guaranteed by the US government, but it still amounts to more than allowing the reserve dollars to remain idle in the Chinese Central bank.
MOTIVE
But now the Chinese realize that:
The principal returned on their maturing bonds is worth less and less every time because of the incessant quantitative easing (money printing) by the federal reserve, which is a form of gradual default
Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and even the US Treasury may default outright on their bonds at some point in time
Hard assets and commodities represent a safer store of value than fiat currency
One measure that the Chinese have taken is to reduce their purchases of US Treasury Bonds, even though the trade deficit with the US continues at high levels. In January 2008, China was the single largest buyer of US Treasury Bonds, with purchases totaling $153 billion. In September 2008, the Chinese became the largest holder of US Treasury bonds, surpassing the Japanese for the first time.
By June 2009, China became a net seller of US Treasury bonds, and their purchases have continually moved to the shorter maturities. According the US Treasury Website, Chinese holdings of US Treasury bonds have declined by about 4% year over year from October 2009 to October 2010, even though they have been steadily accumulating treasuries since July 2010.
According to a recent Bloomberg article, China imported 209 metric tons of gold during the first ten months of 2010, compared to 49 tons imported in all of 2009. Even though they are the world's biggest gold producer, they exported zero tons in 2009. Only India consumes more. Although India's gold consumption is mainly in the form of jewelry, this is deceptive. The Indians may wear it around their necks and wrists, but they use it as more of a savings account, especially in rural India. The savings of Chinese citizens amount to about 40% of their personal income, so what more perfect vehicle than gold bullion to protect their savings from inflation and government instability?
In April 2009, China's Central Bank announced that they had covertly accumulated 454 tons of gold since 2003, raising the official figure on Chinese gold reserves from 600 tons to 1054 tons in one day, after remaining unchanged for six years.
Since the Chinese are wisely accumulating gold, why not silver?We have no public announcement by the Chinese Central Bank to go by, or any official figures of their silver holdings (if any), so we need to see if we can base a theory on the available facts.
The Chinese have a long established cultural affinity for silver. Silver began to be used as a currency in Guangdong, China in 1423 when it became legal tender for payment of taxes. Provincial taxes had to be remitted to the capital in silver after 1465. In 1914, the National Currency Ordinance established the Silver Dollar as the national currency of the Republic of China. In 1949 the incoming Communist regime took China off the silver standard, but there are still many Chinese alive today who can remember a time when silver was used as money in China. In 2004, China legalized private ownership of gold and silver bullion for its private citizens, and in 2008 they began actively encouraging their people to invest their retirement savings in gold and silver. The Chinese word for "bank" uses the same symbol as silver.
So the primary MOTIVE of the Chinese Central Bank in accumulating silver is to wisely transfer dollar reserves to tangible assets, as they have already admitted they are doing with gold, to protect themselves against the out of control money printing by the Fed.
Another MOTIVE is to start an asset backed currency at some time in the future.As the US dollar is continually overprinted by the Fed, its days as the world's reserve currency are numbered. The Chinese are just biding their time, trying to cash in as much of their US debt holdings (while they still maintain SOME purchasing power), before the day when the Yuan ultimately becomes the world's reserve currency by default. The first steps have already been put into place, such as the currency swaps and bilateral trade agreements with Brazil, Australia, Indonesia, Turkey and Russia. These countries all have natural resources that China needs, and are markets for exports of Chinese finished products. When the dollar, pound and euro implode from overprinting, the world will need a new reserve currency, and will not trust another one consisting of nothing but unbacked fiat paper. By accumulating a huge cache of gold and silver, the traditional, historical monetary metals, the Chinese will be ready to back the Yuan when the world's oil exporters will be demanding payment in hard assets. The level of gold/silver redeemability chosen for the Yuan will determine the value of all other world currencies from that day forward, by their free market exchange rate with the Yuan.
A third MOTIVE for the Chinese to be accumulating silver now is the increasing necessity of silver as a raw material for high tech goods produced in China.There is no substitute for silver in many applications, and the demand is the most inelastic of any commodity. China would like to dominate future production of solar panels, switches, flat panel TV's, computers, cell phones, GPS units, batteries of all kinds, especially hybrid car batteries, silver bearings, silver solder, and the list goes on. A ready stockpile of silver will protect the productive capacity Chinese industry in the face of expected future silver shortages.
OPPORTUNITY
I now consider it much more likely that the Chinese Central Bank has it's short COMEX silver position with HSBC bank, the largest international bank in China and known to have a huge silver short position, (which is unlikely to be a legitimate producer hedge), and probably have their corresponding long COMEX silver position with JP Morgan, although this might also be with HSBC. I am just speculating that keeping the positions at two different banks, under two different names, would help to camouflage their strategy of accumulating precious metals and dumping US dollars. With all the global banking secrecy, there is never any shortage of opportunity to unload a bunch of US dollars. But their window of opportunity is closing because of the historically low inventory levels of silver at the COMEX.
This opportunity appears to be coming to an end with looming delivery defaults at the COMEX. In September 2010, there were 3002 silver contracts standing for delivery at the COMEX on first notice day, August 30, 2010. Of those, 84% of the holders (2519 contracts totaling 12.595 million oz) actually took physical delivery, In the next delivery month, December 2010, there were were 17,208 contracts standing for delivery on first notice day, November 26, 2010. Using the same 84% ratio of contracts that actually took delivery in September (presumably 16%, probably more, were talked into settling in cash, likely at a hefty premium to the contract's value based on spot), that leaves 72.3 million ounces of silver actually delivered to long contract holders by the COMEX in December 2010, more than six times as many silver bars as delivered three months earlier in September. As of January 6, 2011 the COMEX released inventory figures of only 44.9 million remaining ounces of silver registered for delivery.
There is an internet rumor going around that billionaire hedge funds (on the advice of former JP Morgan traders and in competition with the Chinese) settled their December long contracts at expiration for large cash premiums by posting the necessary cash and demanding (threatening) to take physical delivery on their long contracts. This would help explain the 9% gain in the price of silver during November, on top of a 14% gain in September and a 9% gain in October, never once having fallen below the 20 day, 50 day, or 200 day Moving Average during those three months.
Here is a link to a financial message board where an apparent market insider posted Wednesday that the participants were so happy with their easy COMEX silver profits in December, that they plan to make much larger purchases of COMEX silver long contracts in the last few weeks of February, 2011, and stand for delivery in March, the next delivery month for COMEX silver. I will be looking at the March COMEX silver delivery figures with great interest, and will not be at all surprised to see major gains in the February and March price of silver. The post also warns of a planned takedown of gold (and indirectly, silver) during the month of January in order to cover some of their silver shorts (scare investors into selling their silver) in time to minimize the banksters' pain in March. This is portrayed as a desperate, last resort tactic since there are enough existing gold inventories available for the banksters to work with, but no silver and buying silver on the open market would only spike the price.
China Buys 47% of the World's Gold
www.wealthwire.com
China is panicking.
Rampant inflation is driving Chinese consumers to buy gold on a massive scale...
In fact China is already set to buy almost half of all the gold that'll be mined this year.
You read that right: The Chinese may buy nearly 50% of total world gold production in 2011.
This incredible demand will no doubt put significant strain on global supplies.
Today I want to talk about how this soaring demand may be the catalyst that pushes gold prices over the $1,500 level in as little as a few weeks.
Over 1.3 billion inflation-nervous Chinese eye gold
In January 2010, China recorded an inflation rate of 1.5%. But just 12 months later, the rate of Chinese inflation has climbed to 4.9%.
Rising inflation has sent food and property prices in China skyrocketing.
The price of food in China, for instance, has increased 10.3% on an annual basis; grain saw an increase of 15.1% and fruit is up 34.8% since January of last year.
China's rising inflation stems from the $585 billion economic stimulus package its leaders pushed through in the depths of the financial crisis two years ago.
In dollar terms, China's stimulus was much smaller than the $800 billion package the U.S. created. But it was much larger as a percentage of the nation's GDP...
And now, all of that money sloshing around the Chinese economy has driven inflation rates to nearly 5%.
The Chinese government has already made some big moves to keep domestic inflation from spiraling out of control:
* raising interest rates multiple times;
* toughening price-fixing rules;
* tightening lending requirements and raising the minimum down payment people need to buy a home.
So far, none of these measures have managed to curb inflation. Fears of uncontrollable inflation — even hyperinflation — are quickly circulating throughout the Chinese economy.
This has prompted a rapidly growing number of China’s 1.3 billion citizens to start devouring gold as wealth protection.
Panic in the East
According to the gold-specializing Swiss Bank UBS, Chinese gold demand exceeded 7.05 million ounces in the first two months of 2011 alone.
This incredible demand is equal to roughly 47% of all the gold produced during the same two months!
The Chinese are buying nearly half of all the gold that is being produced worldwide.
Extrapolated over the full year, Chinese consumers could be in line to buy over 42.3 million ounces of gold just this year.
Let me put that into perspective for you. That's more gold than is being officially stored as reserves by China's Central Bank...
The Financial Times recently quoted a senior executive at the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China ICBC, who spoke of the “voracious” appetite for gold in China...
China's largest bank by market capitalization started a physically-backed gold savings accounts in December with the World Gold Council. Account openings have already surpassed 1 million, with more than 12 tonnes of gold already stored on behalf of investors.
Zhou Ming, deputy head of ICBC's precious metals department, said the nation's largest bank sold nearly 250,000 ounces of physical gold in January — the equivalent of 50% of all the bullion ICBC sold last year.
Zhou also said there was heavy demand for silver, with ICBC selling about 13 tonnes of physical silver in January alone, compared with 33 tonnes in the whole of 2010.
The demand for gold in China is exploding before our eyes. It seems that demand by individuals is reaching almost frightening levels.
And none of this includes what the country's Central Bank may be squirreling away...
We know that China has been buying on gold price dips. Various officials have confirmed this in the past, although we have no idea of the volumes involved.
The People’s Bank of China is almost certainly continuing to diversify their massive $3 trillion currency reserve into gold and precious metals in order to protect themselves from their large exposure to the weakening U.S. dollar.
We also know that China has been accumulating gold surreptitiously through buying up domestic production.
This suggests that increasing gold production was part of a long-term strategic plan to become a global leader in gold investments among governments.
The World Gold Council even reported:
Some market participants believe that China may also be continuing to buy local mine production, which it has done regularly in the past. There is certainly no shortage of experts, both domestic and from overseas, advising China to do so.
The World Gold Council estimates China’s gold demand could double in 10 years as more investors embrace precious metals.
But even in the short term, the expected demand for gold in China over the coming month will be enough to put significant strain on global supplies.
I expect this heavy demand to help push precious metal prices to record highs in 2011.
Prices of $1,500 an ounce for gold and $40 an ounce for silver remain viable short-term targets.
Any price dip should be seen as a buying opportunity.
Greg McCoach is an analyst at Wealth Daily
China is panicking.
Rampant inflation is driving Chinese consumers to buy gold on a massive scale...
In fact China is already set to buy almost half of all the gold that'll be mined this year.
You read that right: The Chinese may buy nearly 50% of total world gold production in 2011.
This incredible demand will no doubt put significant strain on global supplies.
Today I want to talk about how this soaring demand may be the catalyst that pushes gold prices over the $1,500 level in as little as a few weeks.
Over 1.3 billion inflation-nervous Chinese eye gold
In January 2010, China recorded an inflation rate of 1.5%. But just 12 months later, the rate of Chinese inflation has climbed to 4.9%.
Rising inflation has sent food and property prices in China skyrocketing.
The price of food in China, for instance, has increased 10.3% on an annual basis; grain saw an increase of 15.1% and fruit is up 34.8% since January of last year.
China's rising inflation stems from the $585 billion economic stimulus package its leaders pushed through in the depths of the financial crisis two years ago.
In dollar terms, China's stimulus was much smaller than the $800 billion package the U.S. created. But it was much larger as a percentage of the nation's GDP...
And now, all of that money sloshing around the Chinese economy has driven inflation rates to nearly 5%.
The Chinese government has already made some big moves to keep domestic inflation from spiraling out of control:
* raising interest rates multiple times;
* toughening price-fixing rules;
* tightening lending requirements and raising the minimum down payment people need to buy a home.
So far, none of these measures have managed to curb inflation. Fears of uncontrollable inflation — even hyperinflation — are quickly circulating throughout the Chinese economy.
This has prompted a rapidly growing number of China’s 1.3 billion citizens to start devouring gold as wealth protection.
Panic in the East
According to the gold-specializing Swiss Bank UBS, Chinese gold demand exceeded 7.05 million ounces in the first two months of 2011 alone.
This incredible demand is equal to roughly 47% of all the gold produced during the same two months!
The Chinese are buying nearly half of all the gold that is being produced worldwide.
Extrapolated over the full year, Chinese consumers could be in line to buy over 42.3 million ounces of gold just this year.
Let me put that into perspective for you. That's more gold than is being officially stored as reserves by China's Central Bank...
The Financial Times recently quoted a senior executive at the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China ICBC, who spoke of the “voracious” appetite for gold in China...
China's largest bank by market capitalization started a physically-backed gold savings accounts in December with the World Gold Council. Account openings have already surpassed 1 million, with more than 12 tonnes of gold already stored on behalf of investors.
Zhou Ming, deputy head of ICBC's precious metals department, said the nation's largest bank sold nearly 250,000 ounces of physical gold in January — the equivalent of 50% of all the bullion ICBC sold last year.
Zhou also said there was heavy demand for silver, with ICBC selling about 13 tonnes of physical silver in January alone, compared with 33 tonnes in the whole of 2010.
The demand for gold in China is exploding before our eyes. It seems that demand by individuals is reaching almost frightening levels.
And none of this includes what the country's Central Bank may be squirreling away...
We know that China has been buying on gold price dips. Various officials have confirmed this in the past, although we have no idea of the volumes involved.
The People’s Bank of China is almost certainly continuing to diversify their massive $3 trillion currency reserve into gold and precious metals in order to protect themselves from their large exposure to the weakening U.S. dollar.
We also know that China has been accumulating gold surreptitiously through buying up domestic production.
This suggests that increasing gold production was part of a long-term strategic plan to become a global leader in gold investments among governments.
The World Gold Council even reported:
Some market participants believe that China may also be continuing to buy local mine production, which it has done regularly in the past. There is certainly no shortage of experts, both domestic and from overseas, advising China to do so.
The World Gold Council estimates China’s gold demand could double in 10 years as more investors embrace precious metals.
But even in the short term, the expected demand for gold in China over the coming month will be enough to put significant strain on global supplies.
I expect this heavy demand to help push precious metal prices to record highs in 2011.
Prices of $1,500 an ounce for gold and $40 an ounce for silver remain viable short-term targets.
Any price dip should be seen as a buying opportunity.
Greg McCoach is an analyst at Wealth Daily
Ron Paul to Probe U.S. Mint Coin Shortage
www.kitco.com
Texas (Kitco News) -- Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, has one question for the U.S. Mint: why is there a coin shortage?
He is aiming to get to the bottom of this during a scheduled April 7 hearing of his U.S. House Subcommittee on Domestic Monetary Policy to examine the bullion programs at the U.S. Mint.
“We are going to try and find out what the Mint has done so they can give us a better answer as to why there is a shortage. Why can’t they keep the supply of coins up?” said the congressman in an exclusive interview with Kitco News.
Demand for precious metals in the futures markets and in physical gold bullion coins increases as the dollar weakens, which often leads to coin shortages.
Part of the problem lies in manufacturing the blanks, said Paul. The blank planchets are not made at the Mint, which hasn't had the production capacity for this stage of the minting process since the budget cuts of 1981.
“Looks like we don’t even get (all) blank coins made in the U.S. – there is a contract with a foreign company, which makes no sense at all,” said the congressman.
Today there are three refineries that supply planchets to the Mint: VennerBeck Stern Leach in Rhode Island, Sunshine Minting in Idaho and Goldmark in Perth, Australia.
Paul said that a U.S. company may appear at the scheduled hearing with a solution.
“They can help relieve the shortage by providing these blank planchets for the Mint,” he said, not revealing the company.
“I think there is a huge demand and it is being provided by a bureaucracy, and the bureaucracy isn’t responding very well -- but I can’t believe there is any excuse for this,” he said.
The Mint is planning a major overhaul of the metals composition of coins and how they manufacture them. The Coin Modernization, Oversight and Continuity Act of 2010 gives the Mint greater flexibility in meeting the demand for bullion coins as well as meeting the demand for gold and silver numismatic items.
Give Them a Choice: Paul
Paul is a strong advocate of currency backed by precious metals
Paul wants competition in currencies, and to do so, he said the tax on coins needs to be done away with. “Money shouldn’t be taxed with sales taxes or capital gains taxes, that would be my goal,” he said.
In March, Paul introduced H.R. 1098, the Free Competition in Currency Act of 2011, which would repeal legal tender laws in order to prohibit taxation on gold, silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium bullion. The bill has been referred to the House Committees on Financial Services, Ways and Means, and Judiciary.
A staunch critic of the Federal Reserve, Paul said that instead of arguing his case for the Fed to close down tomorrow, he’s arguing the fact it should not hold a monopoly. “They have a monopoly on a type of money that isn’t even constitutional,” he said.
“We would use no force, nobody has to use gold and silver coins,” said Paul. Rather, he said the Fed does use force. “They are a cartel and they make us use Federal Reserve notes,” he said.
The market provides a competition; however, he said there is always the threat of being taxed or the gold and silver being taken away as in the 1930s.
Paul explained that ideally, we should allow the market to pick the currency. “If you deal with international finance, people can use different currencies. Within the U.S., I believe you literally could, especially in this age of computers, that you could calculate two different currencies without difficulty.”
Return to Gold Standard
A common assumption is that Paul is calling for a return to a gold standard. He clarified, saying he is not so inflexible.
“I wouldn’t be overly rigid and say, ‘you must have a gold standard, you must go back to what we had.’ Our gold standard was imperfect, even though it worked better than the paper standard,” he said.
Lawmakers in several states, including Tennessee, Virginia, New Hampshire and South Carolina, have introduced bills to look into minting their own currencies in the event of a complete breakdown of the U.S. Federal Reserve. In Georgia, a bill to make the state only use gold and silver is in committee.
Utah has received the most media attention on this subject as the House and Senate have passed HB317, which would recognize gold and silver coins as legal tender and exempt them from certain state tax liability.
“Governments over the many, many centuries have always demanded monopoly control over money. Even when gold and silver were principally used in the economies, they still wanted monopolies,” Paul said.
Hence, he is not confident that any Utah law would be allowed to stand. “Well, they are going to fight it tooth and nail. They are not going to go along with this even though we have the law and Constitution on our side and it should appeal to all Americans to have competition.”
Interest Rates
Regarding U.S. interest rate hikes, Paul said they are going to be gradual and steady but they are indeed coming. “The next big shoe to fall will be interest rates going up on municipal bonds -- that means a lot of these bonds will start defaulting,” he said.
Presidential Run
Paul has not ruled out a run at the presidency but has not confirmed it either. When asked what would stop him from running, he said: “minimal support.”
“So if there is a receptive audience out there, that is going to influence my decision,” he said. “I have to have a good sense that the message I have will be received well. Last go-around I kept talking about the dangers of the financial and housing bubble. This go-around, I’ve been concentrating on the dangers ahead for the dollar.”
2011年4月1日 星期五
中銀離岸人幣息減0.2厘
不加反減, 問你服沒 ?
文匯報
香港文匯報訊（記者 馬子豪）通脹持續升溫下，處於升值軌的人民幣，成了港人熱門投資工具，2月份本港人民幣存款更突破了4,000億元大關。但由今日(4月1日)起，本港的 人民幣存款利率或將面臨下調。人行予本港唯一人民幣清算行—中銀香港之人民幣資金結算利率，以及由中銀香港給予其他港銀之利率，由今日起將調低逾0.2 厘，減幅約27%。銀行界人士認為，在人行減息下銀行難免要將成本轉嫁予客戶，故人民幣存款利率很有下調的可能。
文匯報
香港文匯報訊（記者 馬子豪）通脹持續升溫下，處於升值軌的人民幣，成了港人熱門投資工具，2月份本港人民幣存款更突破了4,000億元大關。但由今日(4月1日)起，本港的 人民幣存款利率或將面臨下調。人行予本港唯一人民幣清算行—中銀香港之人民幣資金結算利率，以及由中銀香港給予其他港銀之利率，由今日起將調低逾0.2 厘，減幅約27%。銀行界人士認為，在人行減息下銀行難免要將成本轉嫁予客戶，故人民幣存款利率很有下調的可能。
中銀香港(2388)昨日宣布，人民銀行予該行的離岸人民幣存款息口，今日起由0.99厘下調至0.72厘；而對應中銀香港給予各銀行的人民幣存款息口，亦會隨即由0.865厘下降至0.629厘，兩利率跌幅約27%。
中銀離岸息減至0.72厘
根據現行做法，各港銀會將其多餘的人民幣頭寸，存放於中銀香港並獲得0.865厘利率，而各港銀予存戶的人民幣存款利率普遍介乎0.4厘至0.6厘。而隨著港銀從中銀香港所得的利率減少，小存戶所獲利息亦難免面臨被削。
工銀亞洲董事兼副總經理黃遠輝表示，人行是次減息後，將令銀行人民幣定存息率由目前普遍0.7厘， 下調至0.5厘，活期存款則料減0.1厘；又指銀行未必再積極以高息作人民幣存款推廣。黃遠輝強調，存人民幣最主要是看重其升值潛力，而非利率，故料減息 不會影響投資人民幣的大趨勢；但他坦言本港人民幣存款增速會略為放慢，另會吸引更多本港存戶到內地開戶，賺取更多利息。
2月港人幣存款超4000億
金管局昨日公布，2月份人民幣存款按月再增10%，達到4,077億元人民幣；對比去年7月才不過 逾1,000億元，半年間已猛增3,000億元人民幣。礇豐銀行亞太區行政總裁王冬勝認為，調低息率將成趨勢，但相信下調幅度有限，影響本港人民幣業務發 展及存款增長的速度應不會受阻。
但對於是次人行突然調低息率，難免令市場人士感詫異，因內地正處加息周期，反而本港人民幣存息卻被下調，更有銀行界人士揣測，此或反映內地本港的人民幣存款增速過快。
看齊內地超額準備金利率
金管局發言人就調低息率解釋指，現時中銀香港存放於人行的存款，性質與內銀在準備金要求以外存放於 人行的資金相似，故人行所調整至的0.72厘，實為與內地超額準備金的利率看齊；而內地最近一次調整有關利率是於08年10月，由0.99厘調整至現時的 0.72厘，而是次則將本地清算行一同納入此範圍內。
市場早前才剛憧憬人行會上調人民幣清算利率，惟其後金管局證實報道純屬誤傳。
人幣託管帳戶下周五啟用
與此同時，中銀香港宣布，在現行的清算制度以外，再於下周五(8日)成立另一條存放人民幣的渠道， 即為人民幣託管帳戶；由8日起，港銀除可將其人民幣餘額存放於中銀香港內，可將人民幣資金經由中銀香港，轉存中銀於深圳人行所開立的賬戶內，而給予港銀的 架存款利率同為0.629厘。
新措施的最大改善之處，將可解決目前大量人民幣存放於中銀香港，因而出現了授信限額的問題。去年 中銀香港因應坐擁大量人民幣存款，令其資產總額大幅上升37%，中銀香港副董事長兼總裁和廣北上周在業務會直言，此令銀行的資金應用有很大風險；令人民幣 存款更直接拖低了該行的淨息差。如今人民幣可分流至內地人行賬戶，可降低中銀香港與港銀的交易對手風險，紓緩其所面對的授信限額問題。
