孟山都侵入美國麥田！ 日本立禁美國小麥進口

news.on.cc

【on.cc 東方互動 專訊】 美國俄勒岡州農田赫然發現未經核准的基因改造小麥，消息傳出後，日本30日立刻宣布禁止美國小麥進口。其他亞洲主要進口國，如中國、南韓、菲律賓等也正密切注意事態發展。

華爾街日報報道，日本農林水產省掌管小麥進口的官員Toru Hisazome表示，出於安全考量，日本即刻停止進口俄勒岡州生產的美國西部白麥(Western White wheat)，但其他種類小麥不受影響。他並強調，等美國研發出能分辨基改作物的測試劑後，才考慮恢復進口。

美國農業部29日宣布，發現生物科技公司孟山都(Monsanto)研發的基改小麥，污染俄勒岡麥田。美國至今尚未核准任何基改小麥，孟山都1990年代研發4種抗農藥小麥，但各地反對聲浪不斷，計畫最後胎死腹中。

美國食品藥物管理局(USDA)強調，沒有跡象顯示基改小麥已經進入市場，但穀物交易商警告，此一消息將重創美國小麥外銷。新加坡Phillip期貨公司分析師Joyce Liu稱，倘若別的國家跟進，取消或減少購買美國小麥，她不會感到驚訝。

亞洲每年進口4,000萬噸小麥，佔全球小麥交易量的1/3。美國是全球第1大小麥出口國，污染消息恐讓各國將訂單轉向俄國、烏克蘭、澳洲等國。

外國學生湧入中國讀MBA

蘋果日報

中國富二代學生一邊廂熱衷到外國留學，另一邊廂外國人掀起到華留學的熱潮。看好中國市場，事業有成的美國工程師賣樓棄工，來華進修MBA課程。中國教育部統計發現，外國人赴中留學的人數，2011年增長10%，達29萬人。

45 歲的美國IT工程師奧斯丁戴爾賣掉在美國德州房屋，又辭去全球電腦生產商戴爾（Dell）的高薪厚職，銳意來中國進修MBA課程，在她眼中「中國才有真正的機會」。另一位27歲芬蘭女生辭去一間零售公司的經理職位來華讀書，「所有事情都發生在中國」。正如25歲華裔美國人Jonathan Oi也覺是時候回巢，在北京報讀MBA。

隨外國學生赴中國留學的人數不斷增加，中國政府大力發放獎學金和資源吸引海外學生來華，歐美等海外大學也爭相開辦有關中國的課程。香港大學教授白傑瑞（Gerard Postiglione）認為，「海外學生湧至與中國外交有關」，相信中國未來會繼續推廣軟實力。
美國有線新聞網絡

美研退市 渣打中銀齊推新定按

交匯報

香港文匯報訊（記者 陳遠威）美聯儲或提早退市，市場擔心低息環境逆轉，加上辣招令按揭生意大減，多間銀行掉頭減按息，並轉推定按搶客。渣打昨率先宣布推出長達10年期的定息 按揭計劃，首10年定息年利率3.25厘，其後全期按最優惠利率P-2.85厘計算，實際利率2.4厘。中銀香港亦宣佈今日起推出可換樓定按計劃，5年定息計劃首5年定息2.4厘，7年定息計劃首7年定息3厘，其後按中銀香港當時P按利率計算，參考定價介乎P-1.95至P-2.6厘，實際利率3.05厘 至2.4厘。

　除10年定息期計劃外，渣打亦提供定息期3年、5年及7年的定息優惠，定息年利率分別為2.4厘、2.4厘及3厘，定息期後年利率同樣為P-2.85厘。客戶如於定息期間換樓，只須在贖回原有樓宇按揭後6個月內成功提取新貸款，便可沿用原有定息優惠。

渣打10年定息按3.25厘 

　中原按揭經紀董事總經理王美鳳認為，長線用家選擇定按，好處在於若進入加息周期，用家在定息期內可省息及避免未來供款暴增失預算。參考上次本港加息周期，利息加幅達3厘，如20年期按揭日後累計加息3厘，用家每月供款便將增加約30%。

　王美鳳續表示，美國開始減慢買債令定按產品再受關注，有銀行率先推出長達10年定按計劃，加上引入 轉換定息概念，為用家提供新樓按選擇。但近期多間銀行開始調低按息，令部分定按產品息率溢價擴大，短期將削弱定按產品吸引力。她預料定按選用比例將持續增加，但相信只維持在單位數百分點水平。4月定按選用比例增加1.7個百分點至1.9%。 

中原料定按選用比例增 

　經絡按揭轉介首席經濟分析師劉圓圓表示，美國多項數據反映經濟逐步改善，市場注視美國退市步伐，有機會提早加息。用家選擇長年期定按，有助鎖定供款，長遠而言按息將會走向正常化，定息有助降低息口波動風險。相信多間銀行相繼加入，定息按揭潮可延續至次季。

PIMCO：新英央行行長或貶英鎊

文匯報

太平洋投資管理公司(PIMCO)英鎊投資組合主管埃米前日預測，候任英倫銀行行長卡尼上任後，可能會推動英鎊貶值，從目前1英鎊兌1.511美元，回落至1.37美元的4年低位，令英鎊兌一籃子貨幣匯價下跌最多15%，以刺激出口推動經濟復甦。

　PIMCO估計，卡尼7月接替現任行長默文．金後，可能進一步啟動印鈔機。英鎊在2007年至2009年貶值了25%，但刺激出口作用遠不及財政部和央行預期，部分原因是英國企業仍然依賴飽受歐債危機影響的歐元區市場。 　

■《泰晤士報》

West Desperate As Gold Heads East & Silver Set To Soar

Stephen Leeb 說, 西方已到絕望邊緣, 所以唔理 COMEX 倉庫存貨下跌, 係咁禁住金銀價, 而傳媒好努力唱跌金銀叫人唔好買, 唔俾人民知金銀其實是錢, 但都阻止唔到黃金由西向東流 ! 睇來西方會輸呢場仗, 因為黃金會流去中國、 越南和新加坡, 而價格會去到 5,000 至 10,000 美元 !

每次金銀價跌, 咁精明去買貨的就是中國人 !

kingworldnews.com

With gold and silver on the move, today acclaimed money manager Stephen Leeb spoke with King World News about the desperation of the West as gold continues to flow to the East.  Leeb also said investors should be aggressively buying gold and silver right now.  Below is what Leeb had to say in his interview.

Leeb:  “The developed world remains desperate to keep gold down as long as they possibly can, and to keep silver down as well.  Gold is a threat to the developed world.  Of course you don’t sell 400 tons of (paper) gold for no reason, in an asinine fashion.

You don’t watch your COMEX inventories draw down.  There are so many signs of desperation....

“The West is getting more and more desperate.  I hate to say it, but I think we are fighting a losing battle.  Gold is going to end up in the East, in China, Vietnam, and Singapore, and gold is going to be somewhere between $5,000 to $10,000.

And the press has done such a good job in downplaying gold and talking people out of it.  When you see things like this, Eric, it’s desperation.  If there is anything that convinces me that gold and silver are going to go so much higher, it’s the kind of desperation you see on the part of the West to keep these metals down.  To keep people from actually realizing that gold is actually a currency.

From the BIS, to Warren Buffett, to bankers everywhere, they want the dollar to stay the reserve currency.  It won’t.  It can’t.  Not in an economy that is decaying at the rate we are decaying.  

So my message to people that own gold and silver, I would continue to buy it.  I would have a plan where you buy more each month.  A 400 ton sale of gold is an act of utter desperation.  Be prepared for an absolute explosion (in price).  It’s a question of when, not whether.”

Leeb also added:  “The most important (government) number you can verify is median real income.  The average 50th percentile household in this country (the US), how is that household doing?  Well, I’ll tell you how that household is doing.

Since the beginning of this century that household, in real (median income) terms, is down about 10%.  The greatest fall since the Industrial Revolution began in terms of real median incomes.  That’s a number that probably exceeds the fall in real incomes that we saw during the depression.  All of these (types of) things puts the US in a box, and it’s going to make people less willing to accept the dollar.

In the meantime, every time you see a big drop in gold, the people smart enough to buy it are the people you want to bet on.  In this case, those people are the Chinese.”

Billionaires Dumping Stocks, Economist Knows Why

文章說, 多位富豪如巴非特, John Paulson 和索羅斯都在沽出手上股票 ! 美股下跌90%不是不可能的事 !

www.moneynews.com

Wednesday, 29 May 2013 01:05 AM

By Newsmax Wires

Despite the 6.5% stock market rally over the last three months, a handful of billionaires are quietly dumping their American stocks . . . and fast.

Warren Buffett, who has been a cheerleader for U.S. stocks for quite some time, is dumping shares at an alarming rate. He recently complained of “disappointing performance” in dyed-in-the-wool American companies like Johnson & Johnson, Procter & Gamble, and Kraft Foods.

In the latest filing for Buffett’s holding company Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett has been drastically reducing his exposure to stocks that depend on consumer purchasing habits. Berkshire sold roughly 19 million shares of Johnson & Johnson, and reduced his overall stake in “consumer product stocks” by 21%. Berkshire Hathaway also sold its entire stake in California-based computer parts supplier Intel.

With 70% of the U.S. economy dependent on consumer spending, Buffett’s apparent lack of faith in these companies’ future prospects is worrisome.

Unfortunately Buffett isn’t alone.

Fellow billionaire John Paulson, who made a fortune betting on the subprime mortgage meltdown, is clearing out of U.S. stocks too. During the second quarter of the year, Paulson’s hedge fund, Paulson & Co., dumped 14 million shares of JPMorgan Chase. The fund also dumped its entire position in discount retailer Family Dollar and consumer-goods maker Sara Lee.

Finally, billionaire George Soros recently sold nearly all of his bank stocks, including shares of JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Goldman Sachs. Between the three banks, Soros sold more than a million shares.

So why are these billionaires dumping their shares of U.S. companies?

After all, the stock market is still in the midst of its historic rally. Real estate prices have finally leveled off, and for the first time in five years are actually rising in many locations. And the unemployment rate seems to have stabilized.

It’s very likely that these professional investors are aware of specific research that points toward a massive market correction, as much as 90%.

One such person publishing this research is Robert Wiedemer, an esteemed economist and author of the New York Times best-selling book Aftershock.

Editor’s Note: Wiedemer Gives Proof for His Dire Predictions in This Shocking Interview.

Before you dismiss the possibility of a 90% drop in the stock market as unrealistic, consider Wiedemer’s credentials.

In 2006, Wiedemer and a team of economists accurately predicted the collapse of the U.S. housing market, equity markets, and consumer spending that almost sank the United States. They published their research in the book America’s Bubble Economy.

The book quickly grabbed headlines for its accuracy in predicting what many thought would never happen, and quickly established Wiedemer as a trusted voice.

A columnist at Dow Jones said the book was “one of those rare finds that not only predicted the subprime credit meltdown well in advance, it offered Main Street investors a winning strategy that helped avoid the forty percent losses that followed . . .”

The chief investment strategist at Standard & Poor’s said that Wiedemer’s track record “demands our attention.”

And finally, the former CFO of Goldman Sachs said Wiedemer’s “prescience in (his) first book lends credence to the new warnings. This book deserves our attention.”

In the interview for his latest blockbuster Aftershock, Wiedemer says the 90% drop in the stock market is “a worst-case scenario,” and the host quickly challenged this claim.

Wiedemer calmly laid out a clear explanation of why a large drop of some sort is a virtual certainty.

It starts with the reckless strategy of the Federal Reserve to print a massive amount of money out of thin air in an attempt to stimulate the economy.

“These funds haven’t made it into the markets and the economy yet. But it is a mathematical certainty that once the dam breaks, and this money passes through the reserves and hits the markets, inflation will surge,” said Wiedemer.

“Once you hit 10% inflation, 10-year Treasury bonds lose about half their value. And by 20%, any value is all but gone. Interest rates will increase dramatically at this point, and that will cause real estate values to collapse. And the stock market will collapse as a consequence of these other problems.”

See the Proof: Get the Full Interview by Clicking Here Now.

And this is where Wiedemer explains why Buffett, Paulson, and Soros could be dumping U.S. stocks:

“Companies will be spending more money on borrowing costs than business expansion costs. That means lower profit margins, lower dividends, and less hiring. Plus, more layoffs.”

No investors, let alone billionaires, will want to own stocks with falling profit margins and shrinking dividends. So if that’s why Buffett, Paulson, and Soros are dumping stocks, they have decided to cash out early and leave Main Street investors holding the bag.

But Main Street investors don’t have to see their investment and retirement accounts decimated for the second time in five years.

Wiedemer’s video interview also contains a comprehensive blueprint for economic survival that’s really commanding global attention.

Now viewed over 40 million times, it was initially screened for a relatively small, private audience. But the overwhelming amount of feedback from viewers who felt the interview should be widely publicized came with consequences, as various online networks repeatedly shut it down and affiliates refused to house the content.

“People were sitting up and taking notice, and they begged us to make the interview public so they could easily share it,” said Newsmax Financial Publisher Aaron DeHoog.

“Our real concern,” DeHoog added, “is the effect even if only half of Wiedemer’s predictions come true.

“That’s a scary thought for sure. But we want the average American to be prepared, and that is why we will continue to push this video to as many outlets as we can. We want the word to spread.”

Editor’s Note: For a limited time, Newsmax is showing the Wiedemer interview and supplying viewers with copies of the new, updated Aftershock book including the final, unpublished chapter. Go here to view it now.

人人有份的迷魂債

利生講得最岩是呢次 !

蘋果日報

特區每次出iBond，我也要不厭其煩的講多次，美國財政部當初推出通脹掛勾債券（TIPS），目的可不是家長式的管治思維，要為人民提供一個對抗通脹的投資選擇。連市民投資的選擇這個政府也要照顧，而且保證人人都不會蝕，這可算是舉世無雙的政治哲學。下一步，恐怕是連投資也不用，只管人人派錢就好了；名堂是甚麼，到時再想就是。
話說回頭，美國政府推出TIPS，是為了透過市場機制推測出通脹預期。量化寬鬆令到美債孳息長期受壓，追逐回報的壓力令到TIPS也出現負利率，反映貨幣政策不但沒有增加市場活動，相反，資金越是停泊在避險資產，流動性亦隨之下降。不過，自從2012年第二季開始，資金漸漸從債市流出；TIPS的息率其實也在回升。
經濟弱復蘇慢，是聯儲局的難題。要是經濟沒有起色，以官僚的思維，一定不會承認之前的政策有誤，只會因循一貫的方針，擴大規模，加深干預。但現在經濟確實有起色，若說要退，假如經濟又因此回弱，則確立了不可能沒有擴張貨幣政策的客觀現實，也就是說，美國 經濟也不幸地染上了貨幣政策的毒癮。退休在即的伯南克，最不想歷史將他評為令美國染上貨幣政策毒癮的聯儲局主席。

香港人是有福的，至少今天特區沒有可供操控的貨幣政策，否則思歪和陳德霖二人，就足以破壞全香港人的財富。然而，沒有貨幣政策的香港，iBond除了財富轉移，就沒有政策的意義。
記得當天香港剛從通縮走出來，政府第一時間就想發債。建制外，只有非常少數反對聲音。說穿了，是建制內的既得利益，確保就算沒有稅收仍然可以有得分的機制。政府要令眾人表面開心，建制中人才可能以繼續如取如擄，但代價，就留給子孫去還。這筆迷魂債，才是人人有份。

驚提早加息 地產股跳樓 基金經理呻有排捱

蘋果日報

【本報訊】退市陰霾突襲，港股跌凸。港股昨因儲局退市憂慮引發美長債孳息率搶升，在美國或被逼加息陰霾下，恒指狂瀉369點，更趁機狂質低對息口敏感的地 產收租股及房託基金（REITs），其中九倉（004）跌半成；有基金經理嘆：「咁跌法，應該有排捱。」
記者：林　靜

 大市由23500水平瘋狂下挫近900點後，市場今周本來喜見的兩支陽燭，最終在昨日一次過清袋。恒指昨低開97點後反覆，但午後走勢惡化，本地地產板塊 突然遭狂質，拖累大市狂跌1.6%或369點，收報22554點，過去兩日的升幅完全蒸發並且跌凸，10天線更跌穿20天線，出現小型死亡交叉，好友「勁冇癮」。

REITs失守　資金料撤退

昨日地產分類指數更勁瀉近3%，除了退市預期升溫，政府高層放風指不怕港樓價跌兩成的論調，亦罕有被重視，均成跌市誘因。地產板塊以收租股最慘情，除鷹君 （041）外，九倉及會德豐（020）齊齊跌超過4.5%，大型發展商如信置（083）及新世界（017）亦狂挫逾3%；另外，「好息」投資者的資金樂園 REITs亦告失守，置富（778）及領匯（823）跌逾4%，食息族的恐慌升溫。
豐盛金融資產管理董事黃國英昨日表示，昨已先行減磅地產股，指其基本因素有變再配合嚇人跌勢，估計往後「有排捱」，但在收息的角度看，認為REITs長線仍 有吸納價值。騰祺基金管理投資管理董事沈慶洪認為，美國債息上揚或令美國有被逼加息的可能，令高息股受壓，惟資金停泊的最後碼頭REITs也暴瀉下，意味資金有撤走的可能，倘大市失守50天線（昨處22460點），宜先沽貨。

淡友發力　沽空率達一成

事實上，市場的確已出現加息可能的討論，花旗昨發表報告指，假設美國聯邦基金利率重返5厘，港息或在金管局壓力測試要求下作上調，幅度多達2至3厘，但預期本港銀行可能受惠息差擴闊，恒生（011）及中銀香港（2388）料成為贏家。
大市昨成交638億元，沽空率重上一成。內地股市反覆牛皮，在滬綜指牛皮升0.1%下，H指亦偏軟跌1.6%或169點，報10751點。
大跌市下，部份二、三線股炒家照炒可也，比亞迪（1211）及長城汽車（2333）升約4%，再創52周新高；手機股中國無線（2369）及TCL通訊（2618）亦分別漲4.3%及3.9%；內房殼股又落鑊，恒力商業（169）勁飆18%。

美退市陰霾 債市嚇散 OECD憂拖累全球經濟

蘋果日報

【本報綜合報道】美國經濟數據亮麗，加深市場對聯儲局退市的憂慮，令美國國債價格受壓，美國10年期債息昨最高曾升至2.2318厘，為自去年3月以來最高，令歐美股市受壓。經濟合作發展組織（OECD）昨日發表報告指，美國債市波動將成環球經濟最大隱憂。 美國經濟數據反映當地經濟逐步復蘇，周二公佈的樓價指數升幅錄7年最勁，消費信心指數亦升至5年高位，加上儲局近日放風表示有退市可能，令當地債市受挫，債息上揚。

10年期債息逾一年高

美國10年期債息昨最高曾升至2.2318厘，抽升6點子，相較月初的1.6厘，不足一個月抽高半厘，債息亦為去年3月以來最高。5年期債息亦曾升至 1.088厘，升7點子。昨拍賣的350億美元兩年期國債亦失去吸引力，錄得自2011年2月以來最低認購比率，僅錄3.04倍。不過，有投資者趁美債價格周二急挫後趁低吸納，10年期國債孳息其後一度倒跌4點子，報2.13厘。
同樣包括在儲局購買資產計劃內的美國按揭抵押證券（MBS）亦受影響，價格由5月初的高位回落。分析指，MBS價格下跌，推高息率，將增加樓市的借貸成本，不利當地樓市。

市場憂慮儲局退市，除了令美債受壓，債息近月大升外，環球債市亦見受累。美銀美林追蹤環球債市表現的Global Broad Market指數5月下跌1.3%，為自04年4月以來最大跌幅。高盛日前發表報告，指美國10年期債息將於下半年見2.5厘，德國債息則達1.75厘。
事實上，美國債市規模龐大，涉資達11.97萬億美元，由於全球各國央行以至金融市場，都持有大量美債，市況波動勢必影響環球金融穩定。

新興市場不排除勁走資

OECD周三在最新發表的經濟展望報告便預測，環球多間央行退市過程並不順暢，屆時市場情況難以掌握。報告又指當央行選擇收緊貨幣政策，令債息抽升，勢必 打擊新興和先進國家經濟。OECD估算美國長債息率只要一年內升2厘，將影響美國GDP下跌1.5%。歐元區和日本GDP則分別跌0.2%及0.4%。
新興市場將面臨嚴重資金流出，拖冧當地股市。報告又指美國債息飆升，將嚴重影響按揭抵押債券（MBS）和企業債收益。OECD估算，美國10年期零息債券息率只要上升1厘，債價將大跌9%。
不過，ITG Investment Research首席經濟師Steve Blitz則預期美國經濟明年將開始真正加速增長。另評級機構穆迪亦將美國銀行體系前景由負面調高至穩定，指營運環境持續改善，加上銀行受衰退經濟的負面影響減少。
投資者對債息上揚如何影響其他資產表現看法兩極，有人認為債息高企令國債相對股票吸引；但亦有投資者認為債價下跌令資金抽離定息資產，投入股市，可支持股市長遠走勢。
其中財富管理公司Bull and Bear Partners行政總裁Jack Bouroudjian表示，期待已久的資金大轉向終於出現，認為美股今年內仍繼續有運行。

虛擬貨幣洗黑錢466億

一早說網上貨幣唔係好安全, 只有可以拿在手上的實金實銀才是保財富工具 !

文匯報

美國搗破據信是全球最大宗網上洗黑錢案，前日起訴總部位於哥斯達黎加、全球有逾100萬用戶的虛擬貨幣轉賬公司「自由儲備」(Liberty Reserve，簡稱LR)，指控其在全球處理多達5,500萬宗非法交易，清洗多達60億美元(約466億港元)黑錢，所處理交易幾乎全部與犯罪有關。 當局稱LR在俄羅斯、中國內地和香港等地設有空殼公司，足跡遍全球。

　聯邦檢察官起訴書指出，LR自2006年成立以來，每年處理近1,200萬宗交易，涉及金額達 14億美元(約109億港元)。由於交易系統近乎不設防，當局形容它是「全球犯罪集團最喜愛的銀行服務」，成為網絡罪犯對非法金錢進行分發、儲存和洗錢的主要渠道。17國執法部門參與調查，在紐約和哥國等地拘捕包括網站創辦人布多夫斯基在內5名疑犯，另有2人在逃。

毋需證明身份稱買毒品仍可交易

　當局指，LR處理的交易涉及兒童色情、毒品走私和詐騙等罪行。美國早前揭發在全球提款機非法提走4,500萬美元(約3.5億港元)的快閃黑客集團，亦在LR開戶。

　LR不要求用戶證明身份，意味犯罪分子可肆意用假身份交易。當局表示，調查員曾申請名為「Joe Bogus」(Bogus意為偽造)的戶口，地址填上「紐約虛構市假大街123號」，交易時稱是來自「櫃員機詐騙網絡」和「用於購買可卡因」，最終仍能完成交易，可見LR監管系統形同虛設。 

用第三方兌換店 付6元可藏用戶名 

　當局指出，LR創造了同名虛擬貨幣，要求客戶在兌換真錢和虛擬貨幣時使用第三方兌換店，意味客戶真 實銀行戶口不會與LR直接扯上關係。客戶只要在1%手續費以外多付75美仙(約6港元)「私隱費」，網站便會在交易紀錄上遮蔽用戶名稱，令交易幾乎不可能被追查，成為犯罪分子洗錢天堂。

　執法部門目前已查封內地、俄國和西班牙等地共45個與LR有關的銀行戶口，涉及金額達2,500 萬美元(約1.9億港元)。當局並查封LR網站，以及犯罪集團在哥國設立的5個辦公室和6輛汽車。美國當局已要求哥國把在當地被捕的疑犯引渡受審。據報犯 罪集團將被控洗黑錢和無牌經營貨幣兌換，一旦罪成，最高可分別判20年和10年監禁。　　

■綜合外電消息/路透社/彭博通訊社/英國《金融時報》/《紐約 時報》/《華爾街日報》 

「自由儲備」(LR)服務簡單易用兼收費便宜，吸引不少正當商人和民眾使用，他們都擔心LR被查封後，血汗錢能否取回。電腦保安專家克雷布斯表示，當局未透露如何處置LR的剩餘存款，但呼籲用戶應「打定輸數」，認為很大機會無法取回金錢。當局則僅呼籲LR存戶有任何懷疑或質詢應盡快與局方聯絡。

　報道指，美國得州公司ePay-Cards為客戶提供充值虛擬信用卡服務，是其中一間接受客戶用 LR虛擬貨幣付款的企業。其創辦人羅塞蒂透露，目前公司在LR的戶口仍有2.8萬美元(約22萬港元)儲蓄，希望得知資產是否已被查封，以及將來能否取回。羅塞蒂稱「美元可作捐獻亦可買春」，認為當局不應把合法存戶和犯罪分子混為一談。　■《華爾街日報》

股市獲利錢回流 低息火上加油 英德美樓市又炒起

蘋果日報

【本報綜合報道】全球多國央行量寬政策持續刺激股市上揚，資金在股市有斬獲後往往流入樓市，多個利率仍處低水平的國家樓市近期有升溫趨勢，而英德等樓市都受低息之助而開始熱炒；連近年較低迷的日本，亦因近數月股市爆升，令樓市有回暖迹象。 英倫銀行和歐洲央行仍維持低息，令英國及德國樓價均顯著上升。而英國還因受政府推出「幫你買」（Help to buy）首次置業貸款計劃而推升樓價。英國物業分析公司Hometrack資料指，當地5月份樓價創六年來最大單月升幅。

柏林租金五年升三成

德國樓市近期亦見大幅躍升。有市場調查指，首都柏林過去五年租金攀升32%，二手樓價更升41%。但當地人理財較審慎，業主人數未因此增加。德國最大按揭貸款機構LBS指，德國置業人士比例為53%，遠低於意大利的72%及英國的70%。
而美國因聯儲局持續放水，加上近期經濟開始復蘇，令近月樓市數據表現強勁。上月新屋銷售創近五年高位，按月升2.3%，至45.4萬間。當地二手樓市場亦見回勇，4月二手樓銷售創09年11月以來最高，以年率計升0.6%，至497萬間。與此同時，當地銀主盤數目明顯下降，4月時銀主盤拍賣佔二手樓銷售比率 僅11%。亞太區日本首相安倍晉三上任後採取的進取量寬措施，壓低圓滙並推高股市，造成財富效應，亦吸引外資投資當地物業。此外，未來四年推出的住宅稅務 優惠亦會吸引買家入市。

日本地價或見底回升

政府大力泵水，令日本房地產市場終現好轉。當地去年地價按年跌1.8%，跌幅較前一年的2.6%放緩，並且為連續第三年錄得跌幅收窄；投資金額亦於今年第一季按年增加32%，按季則增38%。瑞穗首席房產分析師石澤卓志表示，未來一至兩年，全日本土地價格受大城市帶動，可能會開始上升。

至於澳洲，受當地央行將息率降至歷史低位帶動股市升勢，促進樓市買家的信心。由於當地主要城市樓價仍較三年前高峯期為低，令買家更容易入市。當地政府去年底推出投資移民計劃，亦吸引不少中國買家投資，炒熱樓市氣氛。據研究機構RP的數據，當地大城市樓價截至今年4月底上升2.3%。

利率升樓價落 政府無懼跌兩成

文匯報

香港文匯報訊　

香港樓巿近幾個星期似乎有回升跡象。無铫電視報道昨日引述特區政府高層消息指，當局相信這只是短期的調整，未來利率一定會上升，樓價就會下跌，而即使樓價下跌兩成，政府也不會擔心。不過，當局不會為了爭取民望刻意推低樓市。

料回穩屬暫時調整 

　特區政府推出穩定樓巿雙辣招，即雙倍印花稅以及收緊按揭後，本港的樓價及成交量在過去個多月一直保持平穩：反映二手私樓巿況的中原城巿領先指數，最新數字是為18.7，比對上一個星期，微升0.18點，這是今年3月的高位回落以來，連續5個星期企穩在 118點以上，而在成交量方面，美聯物業的最新樓巿數字顯示，本月的首26日，本港的35個主要屋苑約有350宗成交，連續第三個月回升。

　巿場均認為樓巿回穩，據無铫電視昨日引述特區政府高層消息指，樓價不會直線下跌，現時回穩屬於短暫調整，未來利率一定會上升，樓價就會下跌。報道又指，政府高層稱，即使現樓價下跌兩成，回到去年的水平，政府也不會擔心，認為長遠樓價就算下跌四成，亦有信心不會如1998年及2003年般，出現大量負資產個案。 

不為民望刻意推低樓市 

　該政府高層解釋，當局過去幾次推出樓巿辣招，目的是要將買樓人士的光譜收窄，確保新置業人士有高抗跌能力，配合日後住宅供應增加，樓價就會回落。

　報道又指，政府不會為了爭取民望而推低樓巿，亦會留意樓價下跌，對剛置業巿民以及本港有六成已置業人口的影響。報道又引述該名政府高層稱，留意到部分地區，例如將軍澳區等租金有下調跡象，相信過去的穩定樓巿措施有一定成效。 

業界：白表居屋短暫刺激樓巿 

　財經評論員曾淵滄在接受無铫電視訪問時指出，樓巿近期回升，只是受到短暫因素刺激，「白表居屋的申請者有2,500個，可以買免補地價居屋，相信這免補地價居屋的價錢，會因為這2,500個人入紙而被推高。這些居屋的價錢被推高，對私人住宅來說，都有一定刺激作用」，又指只要雙辣招仍然生效，巿場都不會消化有關措施的影響。

New York markets overwhelmed by physical gold demand

文章說, 雖然資金流出黃金ETF, 但實金的需求還是好大 !

www.mineweb.com

Author: Julian Phillips
Posted: Tuesday , 28 May 2013

JOHANNESBURG (GoldForecaster) -

Gold Today –Asia took the gold price from New York’s close of $1,387 up to $1,394 in London’s morning. London and New York were closed and the price in Asia hardly moved from that level. On Tuesday the gold price slipped just below $1,390 ahead of London’s opening but then fell further to Fix at $1.379 and in the euro at €1,067.42 in London while the euro was €1: $1.2959 up 75 cents against the U.S. dollar. Ahead of New York’s opening gold stood at $1,378.75 and in the euro at €1,065.78.

Silver Today – Silver closed at $22.39 on Friday in New York. Ahead of New York’s opening silver stood at $22.31.

Gold & Silver – Physical demand reached the point last week where it was overwhelming the New York markets slowly but surely. In summary, the gold market is seeing sales from the SPDR gold ETF which have persisted for nearly three months now. The total held in the SPDR fund is expected to fall below 1,000 tonnes this week if the sales continue as before. We do believe there is a core of holders keeping their gold for the very long term, such as Paulson’s funds. What proportion of the fund these comprise is not certain, but we must be getting close to the point where the selling stops. When it does the robust demand, particularly from China, will quickly absorb all available gold. The timing of that event is impossible to say.

But what is becoming more visible is the lack of certainty of equity markets the world over. In 2007 when global financial markets nearly collapsed, confidence fell like a stone, but was restored by the hopes that QE infused into the markets preventing them from collapsing. Since then, aided by a persistently positive media, we have all been waiting for the developed world economies to recover to former levels. But here we are six years on and still struggling to be convinced that the recovery has gained traction. More to the point in markets where QE has been a feature, rising volatility is becoming a feature. This confirms that confidence is falling and the fears that deflation is closer than makes us comfortable.  The falls we are seeing in Tokyo are symptomatic of this. Unless really convincing evidence comes soon, we can be sure that the fall in confidence will spread outwards from Japan.

Meanwhile gold has started the week with a positive tone as it sees record short positions in the U.S. and on COMEX. The big question is, “At what price will cover their short positions?”

The Technical picture is becoming well defined now pointing to a strong move one way or the other.
Silver – The silver price is still steady waiting for a clear direction from gold. 

Regards,
Julian D.W. Phillips for the Gold & Silver Forecasters

農行(01288)：中國降息不如貶值

news.on.cc

【on.cc 東方互動 專訊】 農行(01288)戰略規劃部研究員付兵濤在英國《金融時報》撰文稱，隨著歐元區、澳洲、印度等經濟體先後降息，關於中國降息的預期也在升溫。但目前內外部經濟形勢並不支持中國降息。而與降息相比，更優的政策選擇是貶值。

首先，中國經濟增速並未明顯低於潛在水平。1季度GDP增速為7.7%，儘管低於此前的市場預期，仍高於年初確定的全年7.5%的預期目標；考慮到7.7% 的GDP增速並未明顯低於潛在水平，就很難通過降息來刺激增長。其次，企業融資的實際利率水平並不高。再者，利差並非熱錢流入的主要原因。最後，降息可能將再次刺激房價反彈。

因此，目前下調存貸款基準利率並的必要性並不大。相反，穩定人民幣匯率甚至貶值則是很值得考慮的。第1、有利於緩解熱錢流入壓力。第2、有利於穩定出口。第3、有利於企業走出去。

中石油(00857)印尼14座石油與天然氣井入口被封

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【on.cc 東方互動 專訊】 外電報道，中石油(00857)在印尼蘇門答臘島14座石油與天然氣井的入口，被東丹戎查朋政府封鎖。

中石油印尼的公關經理Novie Latanna稱，東丹戎查朋政府鎖上大門，令公司無法進入維護，亦無法確保該等油井安全運轉，而這些油井仍在每天生產433桶石油，和大約1,100萬標準立方英尺的天然氣。

Novie Latanna解釋，東丹戎查朋政府要求獲得天然氣，去年曾要求每天得到500萬標準立方英尺的天然氣，以滿足當地的電力供應。她稱，達到該等供應規模需漫長過程，東丹戎查朋政府可能是想快點得到，並因此扣留中石油的土地許可證。

印尼中央政府批評東丹戎查朋政府的做法。印尼油氣管理部門發言人Elan Biantoro稱，東丹戎查朋政府的做法已經越權。

歐洲銀行開始提取存放在央行的現金

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【on.cc 東方互動 專訊】 《華爾街日報》對銀行財務信息進行的一項分析發現，歐洲最大12家銀行存放在央行的現金總額，自2010年年底時的7,650億美元穩步增加，去年9月份 達到1.42萬億美元的峰值。此後，這12家銀行存放在央行的現金總額不斷減少，3月底時降至約1.15萬億美元，較峰值減少19%，也是近2年來的最低 水平。

文 章指，歐洲銀行業現在開始降低現金儲備，一改過去幾年不斷在央行存錢的做法；表明儘管歐洲金融危機尚未消除，但銀行業的信心以及風險偏好已有所提升。銀行 此前不斷儲備現金，是因為監管部門要求它們維持較多流動性以防受到金融危機侵襲，同時這也是因銀行資產安全憂慮而起的一輪席捲整個歐洲銀行業的避險風潮。 將現金存放在央行是歐洲銀行最保險的做法。

銀行業人士表示，隨著歐洲金融系統脫離危險、投資者要求銀行提高利潤率，它們正將資金轉出利率基本為零的央行帳戶，並投向風險略高及更具吸引力的資產，包括由政府和其他銀行發行的債券。

但 一些歐洲銀行業人士表示，一些銀行的央行存款減少，是因為開始償還歐洲央行 2011年年底和去年年初發放的1萬億歐元緊急貸款。銀行業人士表示，銀行在獲得這些貸款後沒有對企業、個人或其他銀行放貸，而是又存入歐洲央行。目前， 部分銀行正開始使用這些過剩現金償還歐洲央行貸款。

但其他一些銀行表示，他們從利率為零的央行存款帳戶提出資金，就是為獲得更高收益。消息透露，包括巴克萊在內的一些銀行，正將資金投向具有較高評級和較強流動性的國債。

還有一些銀行正用提取的現金購買其他銀行發行的資產擔保債券。此類債券有抵押貸款和其他資產作為支持，在過去的1年中成為許多歐洲銀行的主要融資工具。

銀行業人士表示，銀行通常購買的是那些有資格作為央行貸款抵押品的資產，這麼做能使他們在市場再次遭遇危機時擁有應對辦法。

蘇格蘭皇家銀行集團和法國農業信貸集團則在繼續增加現金儲備。這2家銀行截至3月底的央行存款額分別為870億英鎊和480億歐元，均為至少自2010年以來的最高水平。消息稱，這2家銀行增加現金儲備的部分原因是為進行重組。[DJ]

COOK ISLANDS 1 Dollar 2013 1oz Silver Bounty

Country of origin: Cook Islands
Nominal value: 2 Dollar
Mint: Bavarian Mint Munich
Quality: BU
Issue: 2013
Weight: 31,103 g
Fineness: Ag 999
Diameter: Ø 40,0 mm

在SCS買285蚊, SCS一推出一晚之間已賣完 !

呢隻銀幣雖然年年設計不變, 但因為少有網店出售, 所以好搶手 !

普製銀幣來說, 美國鷹楊銀幣, 加拿大楓葉銀幣, 奧地利愛樂銀幣, 墨西哥天使銀幣都是大國銀幣, 但因為設計年年不變, 所以價格只會跟純銀價上落, 只是有國家保証, 所以比純銀條值錢 !

而中國熊貓銀幣, 澳洲笑翠鳥銀幣, 澳洲樹熊銀幣, 澳洲生肖銀幣, Somali 大笨象銀幣等等, 因為年年設計唔同, 所以價錢會以圖案, 年份和少發行量而上升 !

歐盟新稅 劍指高頻交易

蘋果日報

英國民間傳說中，羅賓漢是位劫富濟貧、行俠仗義的綠林英雄，難怪市場將歐盟11國計劃在明年起徵收的金融交易稅，稱為「羅賓漢稅」，意指讓高收入族群比貧苦大眾分擔更多經濟包袱。筆者認為，此稅未必是劫富濟貧，但它肯定是將虛擬金融市場與實體經濟距離拉近的金融措施。金融交易稅並非一件新事，早在40年前，諾貝爾經濟學得獎者James Tobin已經提出。而且這也並非是從未實施過的新措施，像香港的印花稅（Stamp duty），已經是金融交易稅的一種。但今次歐洲所提出的，無論是規模和影響層面上，都遠比之前所出現的大很多，會有深遠的影響，包括對買賣雙方和對衍生工具的徵收等。

交易越多　徵稅越重

現時美國和英國對「羅賓漢稅」有所保留，因為此稅不僅是歐洲國家的事，而是凡與歐洲國家有金融交易的，都會牽涉這項交易稅。當你的交易對手是歐洲，交易量過於頻繁，那你繳納的金融交易稅就越多。所以，香港的金融機構也不能倖免。
金融交易稅的理論基礎是，金融市場過於龐大的波動性對實體經濟「弊多於利」，甚至令融資市場與現實經濟產生脫節，帶來負面影響，包括「大到不能倒」的銀行需要納稅人的錢拯救。
不過，今次金融交易稅的目的，可能是「明修棧道，暗渡陳倉」，減低市場的波動性是「棧道」，暗地劍指的卻是「高頻交易」（High-frequency trading, HFT）的隱形禍害。畢菲特曾說，高頻交易是「合法的搶先交易」（Legalized front running）。
Front running是非法的，但是HFT卻可以透過先進的系統，搶先在其他人之前完成交易。由於HFT是「密食當三番」，以極頻繁的交易和極小的股價變化去賺錢，任何交易稅會使之無法進行，所以香港的HFT並不活躍。
HFT的支持者認為有助增加市場的流動性，但反對者認為HFT只是「製造虛假流動性」的工具，對實體經濟與價值投資沒有一點用處。過去因高頻交易出事的金 融事件亦有不少，如2010年5月6日，華爾街股市就因高頻交易導致道指即市下跌近千點，損失市值近乎天文數字。

靠佣搵食　大行反對

筆者同意金融應該用以支持實體經濟，對HFT不會有太大同情，不過，對短期融資市場，尤其是repo market（回購市場）的影響，卻應該深思。Repo market即暫時買賣回購協議，賣方出售抵押品以換來買方資金，但其後賣方承諾將抵押品贖回，這是一種短期融資方法，就像你去「當舖」抵押物品換來資金 周轉。由於該協議在法律上仍算是「交易」，也會受交易稅影響。
不少金融機構如證券商、投資銀行都是靠賺差價和佣金，金融交易稅實施後，自然會對成交金額有負面的影響，它們當然會大力反對。在保護既得利益，和影響短期融 資市場的種種勢力和角力下，金融交易稅能否如期於明年在歐洲實施，又或者會否被大幅修改，看來仍然是未知之數。

黃元山
大學教授、國際投行前董事總經理

Russia, Greece, Turkey, Other Central Banks Buy Gold; China’s PBOC Buying?

四月各國中央銀行繼續買入黃金 !

www.zerohedge.com

Today is a national holiday in the United Kingdom and the USA.
Friday’s AM fix was USD 1,385.25, EUR 1,068.95 and GBP 917.81 per ounce.

Gold climbed $5 on Friday and closed at $1,390.25/oz in London and silver closed at 22.482 in NY. 

Gold rose 0.45% this morning in quiet European trading with UK and U.S. markets closed for holidays. Silver, platinum and palladium also advanced this morning.

Gold’s gains come on the back of the best week in a month last week when gold rose 2%.

Gold is being supported by continued diversification from central banks and signs of increased physical demand which is countering continued outflows in ETF holdings. 

Gold Price (Nominal) and Central Bank Net Buying/ Selling (1971-2013)

Russia, Greece, Turkey, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan expanded their gold reserves for a seventh straight month in April, buying bullion to diversify foreign exchange reserves due to concerns about the dollar and the euro.

Russia’s steady increase in its gold reserves saw its holdings, the seventh-largest by country, climb another 8.4 metric tons to 990 tons, taking gains this year to 3.4% after expanding by 8.5% in 2012, International Monetary Fund data show. 

Kazakhstan’s reserves grew 2.6 tons to 125.5 tons, taking the increase to 8.9% this year after a 41% expansion in 2012, data on the website showed.

Turkey’s holdings rose 18.2 tons to 427.1 tons in April, increasing for a 10th month as it accepted gold in its reserve requirements from commercial banks. 

Belarus’s holdings expanded for a seventh month as did Azerbaijan’s.

Interestingly, Greece’s gold holdings climbed for a fourth month, according to the IMF data. 

This could be a sign of rising economic nationalism in Greece or that the Greek central bank realises that if Greece leaves the euro and is forced back onto the drachma that gold reserves will offer a modicum of protection. Only a modicum, because Greece’s gold reserves remain miniscule especially considering the scale of their debts.  

IMF Greece Gold Reserves, Quarterly 01Jan1956-27May2013, in Mill Fin Troy Oz

Central banks are buying gold as an overall strategy of forex portfolio diversification and the recent price drop will not deter them from a long term policy of diversification into gold. 

Central bank reserve managers are conservative rather than speculative and will ignore the day to day noise and price predictions emanating from certain banks in favour of passive allocations to gold as part of their foreign exchange diversification strategy. 

IMF World Gold Reserves, Monthly 31Mar2007-31Mar2013, in Mill Fin Troy Oz

While not driven by price, some central banks may have made the most of the lower prices by increasing their holdings by more than they would have if prices had risen in value.   

The long term trend for central banks to increase gold reserves remains intact and will support gold.

Central banks bought 534.6 tons of gold last year, the most since 1964, and may add as much as 550 tons in 2013, the World Gold Council estimates. While central-bank purchases fell 5.2 percent in the three months through March, they totaled more than 100 tons for the seventh straight quarter, according to council data.

IMF China Gold Reserves, Quarterly 01Jan1977-27May2013, in Mill Fin Troy Oz

China’s foreign currency reserves have surged more than 700% since 2004 and are now enough to buy every central bank’s official gold supply - twice.

China’s foreign reserves surpassed the value of all official bullion holdings in January 2004 and rose to $3.3 trillion at the end of 2012 and are at $3.4 trillion today.

The price of gold has failed to keep pace with the surge in the value of Chinese and global foreign exchange holdings. Gold has increased just 54% in the last 5 years and 250% since 2004, with the registered volume little changed, according to data based on International Monetary Fund and World Gold Council figures.

China’s Foreign Exchange Reserves vs Gold Monthly (2004-2013)

By comparison, China’s reserves rose 721% from 2004 through 2012, while the combined total among Brazil, Russia and India rose about 400% to $1.1 trillion.

Continuing diversification into gold from the huge foreign exchange reserves by the People’s Bank of China and other central banks is a primary pillar which will support gold and should contribute to higher prices in the coming years.

We are confident that the PBOC is quietly accumulating gold and we expect another announcement from the PBOC, possibly this year, when they again disclose to the market that they drastically increased their gold reserves – possibly from 1,054 tonnes to between 2,000 and 3,000 tonnes.

習奧會 人幣炒風勢飆

文匯報

人民幣今年恢復較快升值態勢，一方面是年初中國經濟復甦加快，另一方面是外圍熱錢不斷湧入，人民銀行副行長易綱早前指央行將考慮放寬匯率波動區間也刺激套利行為。而國家主席習近平將於下月7日至8日在美國加州與美國總統奧巴馬會晤，亦將進一步推升人民幣匯率。

　人民幣波幅的變動一直廣受國內外市場和機構的關注，而珠三角數萬出口企業更是深受影響。易綱指目前適合考慮進一步擴大人民幣匯率波動區間的言論出來後，市場紛紛揣測央行擴大人民幣波動幅度範圍和推出時間，大多數市場人士分析估計，新波幅擴大一倍至2%。 

匯率波動空間頻逼1% 

　市場憧憬擴寬波幅即變相讓人民幣升值，不少機構對這一預期加大炒作，人民幣在一個月來大幅升值，尤其5月以來，多次出現人民幣對美元即期匯價相對於中間價的日均最大波幅超過0.9%、迫近1%漲停幅度上限的現象。

　在深圳羅湖、皇崗口岸設立多家外幣兌換點的深圳外幣兌換網總經理方震，在接受本報記者採訪時表示： 「自4月以來人民幣升值明顯提速。根據國家外管局資料顯示，人民幣中間價一個多月累計升幅已達1.4%，而2012年全年中間價的累計升幅才0.25%， 今年人民幣升幅已較去年全年超出5倍。」

　方震指出，由於市場預期人民幣兌美元波幅將會擴大至2%，許多投資機構紛紛炒作這一預期，令人民幣兌美元不斷地升值。他認為，近期人民幣中間價持續走高，可能是央行通過縮小中間價與即期價的差距，探索即期匯率均衡點在哪一位置較為合適，從而以此為基礎擴大人民幣波動區間，估計屆時人民幣不會持續單邊升值。

擴波幅恐引更多炒作

　對於市場高度關注的央行何時擴大人民幣波幅問題，摩根大通預計，在國家外匯管理局出台打擊外匯投機行為的規定後，人民幣交易區間可能會在今後3個月內擴大至2%。摩通全球新興市場交易部門負責人胡文濤稱，如果外管局沒有採取新的措施就擴大交易區間，將激發更多投機行為。

毒澱粉配方沿用10年 傳已銷陸

中國有毒大米, 台灣有毒[圓]毒糕點, 日本有幅射 .........

文匯報

香港文匯報訊　 綜合媒體消息：

含化工原料「順丁烯二酸」的毒澱粉再為台灣食品安全敲起警鐘！台媒近日聚焦毒澱粉配方始創人「王老師」，有指業內使用毒澱粉已超過10年之久，「王老師」更曾遠赴越南、大陸傳授不法技術！台當地目前共檢出涉毒產品及原料粉超過206噸，並已全部查封回收。本港市面的台灣食品店，部分以澱粉為 主要食材的食品如麻糬等仍受歡迎，暫未見市民因此對台灣食品卻步，但部分供港食品已在包裝上列出所使用的澱粉種類及份量。

　由於港台關係密切，部分台灣澱粉製作的食品在香港有售，香港食物環境衛生署食物安全中心25日表示會密切關注事件，但暫未對任何台灣食品發出「食物警報」。

增口感保質期 多廠交學費

　有「立委」日前收到民眾密函舉報，稱發明將「順丁烯二酸」加入食用澱粉中的，是台南一位退休化學老 師「王老師」。檢舉函中透露，「王老師」每次以新台幣50萬到100萬元(約13萬至26萬港元)代價教導台灣廠商如何添加「順丁烯二酸」以增加食品的口感與保質期，並遠赴越南、大陸傳授不法技術，食品業內使用毒澱粉已超過10年之久，部分因此獲利的廠家不惜向王奉上百萬元「學費」，更尊稱他為「王老師」。

　台媒昨日聚焦「王老師」，並查出可能是目前居住台南市的退休中學化學老師王東清。有指王東清退休後熱衷研究食品技術，台「食藥局食品組組長」蔡淑貞當晚表示，食藥局在2008年4月7日確曾接到「王東清」向政府申請「食品用修飾澱粉之製造方法」的專利技術，其中關鍵成分正是「順丁烯二酸」，但當時申請未獲通過。蔡說，由於未能肯定是否同一人，已要求台南市衛生局與王老師聯繫，希望有助於釐清案情。

專家：多吃肉圓與服毒無異

　有食品業者推算，王東清現今應有70歲、80歲，除一度活躍食品界，還曾憑化學知識跨足美容保健，研究膠原蛋白等化學技術，遊走大陸、東南亞等地，賺了不少錢。

　台「食藥局」表示，日前涉案之澱粉包括：地瓜粉、番薯粉、酥炸粉、黑輪粉、清粉、澄粉或粗粉等，受影響之市售產品包括粉圓、芋圓類、板條、魚肉煉製品類(關東煮)、肉圓、豆花及粉粿等。

　有專家指，以問題肉圓所用的地瓜粉或「再來米粉」計算，只要吃一顆就超過歐盟標準，「多吃與服毒無異」。

Suppliers & Bank Clients Denied Gold As Shortage Intensifies

Egon von Greyerz 說, 愈來愈多投資者在歐洲銀行買黃金收唔到實金 ! 有人去銀行說想睇下自己買個堆黃金, 銀行說不能睇, 而從抽櫃取出一金條說, 你的黃金就是這樣子的 !

如果你去歐洲銀行買黃金, 而單上寫買咗幾多盎司黃金就係紙黃金, 因為實金會用克和公斤計數的 !

試想像, 你有一枚金幣, 而你賣俾一百個人, 因為他們多數唔會取貨, 只會在金價高升時賣返俾你取返現金, 而你可以用收到的錢去東炒炒西炒炒來賺錢, 但有日個一百個人走來取金幣, 你就大鑊啦 !

kingworldnews.com

Today Egon von Greyerz shocked King World News with more stunning news regarding clients having problems getting their physical gold out of Swiss banks as well as other major banks as the gold shortage intensifies.  Greyerz also discussed the fact that suppliers cannot keep up with demand and the reason will surprise KWN readers around the world.  Below is what Greyerz, who is founder of Matterhorn Asset Management out of Switzerland, had to say in this remarkable interview.

Greyerz:  “Eric, at our company we are hearing more and more stories about banks not delivering gold that belongs to the client.  We are talking about Swiss banks here once again.  One client went to a Swiss bank to inspect his gold and the client manager said, ‘You can’t see it, but it looks like this,’ and he took a gold bar out of his drawer.

And the client showed me that he had a statement showing ounces of gold.  Well, you don’t own physical gold in ounces in Europe.  You own gold bars either in grams or in kilos, but not in ounces....

“You know automatically that it was paper gold the client owned because it was in units of ounces from a European bank.  So he didn’t have any physical gold, but the man in the bank told him that he did have physical, but he just couldn’t show it to him. 

Another client went to a major Swiss bank and he wanted to inspect his gold, but the account manager said, ‘I can show you the documents, but we are not allowed to show you the physical.’  And this was a major Swiss bank.

And just today we heard from a client that was going to take his gold out of two major Swiss banks.  This bank told him that he could only take out 200,000 Swiss francs worth of gold per annum.  They started off by telling him 50,000 to 80,000 Swiss francs of gold could be taken out, but eventually they went up to 200,000.  The other bank told him that he could not take out more than 80,000 Swiss francs worth of gold per year.

So clearly these banks don’t have the physical gold.  If they do, it’s very strange they won’t show it to clients and the clients are not allowed to take it out of the bank.  So it’s clear that many banks don’t have the gold. 

The bottom line is the banks don’t have enough physical gold to cover the commitment to their clients, and governments also have a lot less physical gold in the West than they claim to have.  As the paper market is 100 times larger than the physical market, it means that paper market has virtually no physical gold to back it.”

Greyerz also added: “The latest shocking news from suppliers is they are having a very difficult time getting hold of physical gold.  Therefore, this week again they increased their spreads on physical gold.  So again, Eric, my message is very clear:  Investors must hold physical gold outside of the banking system because this paper market will explode one day.”

西國銀行或撥備千億

蘋果日報

【本報綜合報道】西班牙央行一名內部人士向英國《金融時報》透露，西班牙銀行業需要為壞賬撥備高達100億歐元（約1,000億港元）。因該行迫使所有銀 行在9月底前需按更嚴格的標準，重新對他們的再融資貸款進行分類。

再融資貸款有新規定

報道引述西班牙央行一名高級官員指，「我們的銀行業將需要更多撥備。這些撥備將影響利潤，但現時問題是該撥多少。我們不太確定規模有多大，但認為整個銀行 體系撥備將在50億至100億歐元之間。」今次是首次有當地官員對央行的新規定如何影響銀行業作出評估。
最 新數據顯示，由於現時由歐債問題以及當地經濟不景，而無法按時全額歸還貸款企業處境仍然困難，故西班牙銀行業已對上述涉資2,000億歐元的貸款還款時限 作出延期。西班牙央行認為潛在風險來自於銀行這種「延期及假裝」（extend and pretend）的行為，他們認為這些風險未完全被覆蓋，上述新規定令銀行業更難以處理再融資貸款；即使他們按規定正常執行，亦要被迫進行額外壞賬撥備。
一般估計，西班牙央行對再融資貸款的新規定，或會迫使實力較弱、並專攻國內市場的銀行要出售資產來提升資本。

匯控或被禁在美經營

文匯報

香港文匯報訊　(記者 方楚茵、陳遠威)

匯控（0005）就墨西哥洗黑錢案支付19億美元(約148億港元)和解金，與美國司法部和解，惟有英國報章報道指，紐約東區法院正考慮取消匯控與美國司 法部的延後起訴協議，匯控將可能遭受刑事起訴，甚至被吊銷在美國的營運執照。在昨日匯控的英國股東會中，主席范智廉指，在墨西哥及澤西島的問題，集團已盡可能把關，確保客戶在開戶時的資訊是最新的，加上集團進行業務重組中亦會繼續配合環球最高監管標準，未來會持續與美國監管當局合作，加強公司的透明度。

　據《衛報》及《每日電訊報》消息，礇豐控股去年底與美國當局達成協議，有傳紐約東區法院法官格利森正計劃推翻協議，若成事，匯控可能遭刑事檢控，甚至被吊銷在美國的營運執照。上述和解協議名為「暫緩起訴協議」(DPA)，是企業避免檢控的常見應對手法。今次匯控的DPA須由格利森簽署才能生效，但他正考慮不簽字。他在去年12月曾稱，批評法官輕易批出DPA的人已愈來愈多。

匯控可能遭刑事檢控 

　游說團體Global Witness的麥克威廉表示，今次是美國司法部門重新審視礇控罰則的好機會，暗示該行應為監管洗黑錢不力而接受更大懲罰。司法部長霍爾德月前曾稱匯控可能「大得不能起訴」，有傳司法部準備挑戰格利森的權力，令和解協議即使不經他的簽署亦可生效。

　另一法官雷科夫去年亦曾拒絕簽署花旗集團與證券交易委員會(SEC)達成的DPA，他形容這筆2.85億美元(約22.1億港元)的和解協議是「不合理、不公平、不符合公眾利益」，爭議現時仍未解決。

　范智廉昨日承認，過去兩年匯控聲譽受到重大打擊，並付出沉重代價，集團已採取不少措施重組及加強監管，在1月設立新委員會將加強監察風險管理，委員會將直接向英國及美國有關當局匯報。

范智廉：人民幣商機巨 

　中國業務方面，該行行政總裁歐智華指，中國的經濟由過往的高增長達13%，至今年首季有放慢趨勢， 預期今年中國經濟增長為8.2%。中國地方政府債務風險及影子銀行風險等，匯控業務以債市為主，加上現時中國已加強監管影子銀行，故不認為會構成重大風險，認為中國的債券市場仍相對穩定。

　范智廉又指，人民幣是未來長遠發展機遇，預期人民幣在2015年將成繼美元及歐元的全球第三大貿易貨幣，料5年內人民幣將可完全自由兌換，中國金融市場將更進一步融入全球。離岸人民幣市場方面，他認為離岸債券市場發展蓬勃，將帶來人民幣投資機遇。

　范智廉指，集團價值再次高於投入資本，股價由去年514便士上升44%至742便士，市值由1,446億美元增至2,081億美元。礇控股東總回報率按年增長39%，其中7%來自派息，其餘32%來自股價上漲。

Doomsday investors betting on market crash

文章說, 有一班淡友在打賭, 在六個月內美國股市會大跌, 而跌多過20%佢地會得到巨額(60%)回報 ! 呢個玩法就係買期權 !

前日的亞洲跌市是個提示來緊會發生的事 !

finance.yahoo.com

Stocks have had a stellar year so far. In fact, the rally has gotten so heated that some investors are making bets on a big crash.

Universa Investments, which spends hundreds of millions of dollars a year buying crash protection, has attracted a record amount of money into its fund this quarter.

"People are starting to recognize that these market moves are unnatural and distorted," said Universa president and chief investment officer Mark Spitznagel, who declined to say how much is spent on crash protection, citing SEC rules.

Universa's view that a crash is coming is not widely held, making crash protection cheap, he said. Universa buys this protection in the form of options that generate huge returns when the stock market falls by more than 20%. Universa's adviser, economist and former derivative trader Nassim Taleb calls it 'black swan' hedging.

That's apropos considering Taleb coined the phrase 'black swan,' described as an unforeseen event that has an extreme impact, such as the 2008 financial crisis or Japan's 2011 nuclear disaster.
Spitznagel says he's pretty confident that the market will crash, or fall by more than 20%, in the next six months -- a year max.

Related: Is bond bubble losing air?

The sell-off in Asian stocks Thursday, he says, is a "hint at what's going to happen."
"I think there will be a lot of false starts before it does, and this may be one of them," said Spitznagel.
Universa investors, mainly banks and pension funds, use the fund as an insurance policy to protect against a stock market crash.
In 2008, when the S&P 500 dropped nearly 40%, Universa generated returns of more than 115% for investors, according to a source familiar with the fund's performance.
Universa expects returns of at least 60% when the market is down 20%.
Claude Bovet, who runs Lionscrest Capital, has been investing with Universa since it was founded six years ago. He says he has significantly increased his allocation in the past few months.
"It allows me to be bullish. You can participate in all the upside of the stock market but without being complacent," said Bovet.
Tail risk funds like Universa generally suggest that investors put 1% of what they put into stocks into these hedges. A fund that spends $100 million on equities would put about $1 million to $1.5 million into a tail-risk strategy.
When the market is up, Spitznagel and his team try to limit losses. For example, in 2009, when the market gained 30%, Universa investors saw a bleed of only 4%.

Related: Dr. Doom says buy stocks while you still can

The Federal Reserve, with its massive bond buying program, is seeing its actions become less effective, said Spitznagel. The Fed, he says, can continue to forestall a crash but only for so long.

"There are plenty of crazy things Bernanke can do," he said, referring to the Fed chairman. "But it will end badly."

For Universa, a bad market is a good one.

View this article on CNNMoney

Turk - We Are Witnessing Extraordinary Events In Gold & Silver

James Turk 說, 前晚金價的大波動(升去1414後又跌返去1356), 是發生在美國市和倫敦市都開放的時段, 名為 London PM fix, 而在呢個時段, 買賣實金的叫價會得到對盤而成交 !

所以可以見到當時真正的實金交收價格和顯示實金有幾短缺 !

kingworldnews.com

With hedge fund shorts in gold and silver continuing to battle the physical market in London, today James Turk told King World News that the hedge funds will be overrun as the physical market takes down the massively overexposed paper shorts.  Turk also spoke about the wild trading which has centered around the London fix. 

Turk: “We are seeing some extraordinary events in the gold market, Eric.  One of these was yesterday's London PM fix, which people are still talking about.  Gold was trading quietly around $1385 just before the fix.  Then, as the fix commenced, gold rose within roughly 15 minutes to $1414. 

It was a real rocket-shot and caught the shorts by surprise.  But the shorts regrouped, in order to regain control, and gold then dropped lower in the next 30 minutes.  After the fix ended, gold had fallen to below $1370.  We have to consider the significance of this extraordinary event....

“The London PM fix, which takes place every business day at 3 PM London time, is one of the most important daily events in gold.  It occurs when both the London and North American markets are open, so it has deep liquidity.

The London fix is widely misunderstood because of its name, but if you view it in a nautical sense, to 'fix' on a distant point, the term makes sense.  What the fix aims to do is discover the price at which buyers and sellers of physical ‘London Good Delivery’ bars are in balance.  The dealers keep offering bars for sale or bidding on bars for purchase until there is a balance between them in order to clear the market, which is why yesterday's fix was so significant, Eric.

Normally the institutions and other big players in the market can get 400-ounce gold bars delivered to them within 2 days after payment, typically called T+2.  These two days enable the seller of gold to make sure he has received good funds because he is converting hard money - physical gold - into soft money, namely, the national currency the seller accepts in payment.  The currency is usually dollars, but sometimes pounds are used.  Soft currencies may be repudiated because banks can reverse wire transfers, which explains the caution the seller requires before releasing the bars.

In the days leading up to the fix, some of the larger orders to buy bars have been moving out to as long as T+5, which is extraordinary.  These orders, typically 3-to-5 tons in size, are normally handled with no problem.  So to see this lengthy delay in delivery - which is very rare - shows how tight the physical market for gold really is.

Different markets reflect the tightness in physical metal in different ways.  For example, India and Shanghai reflect the tightness with huge premiums.  Futures contracts reflect the tightness by moving into backwardation, but the true extent of the current backwardation between May and June is being distorted by manipulating interest rates. 

But in London, the tightness cannot be distorted or hidden.  We can see the tightness by the shorts delaying delivery, which is happening right now.  So it is clear that the buyer or buyers who pushed the gold price up during the London PM fix yesterday were obviously desperate to get their hands on physical metal and were prepared to pay whatever price it took to obtain it.

The huge premiums over spot in Asia and the long delivery times in London clearly show that this takedown in gold over the past few weeks was all about what was taking place in the paper market.  The same is true for silver, which looks like it had a selling climax on Monday, given the huge upside reversal in its price that day along with gold.  Gold's reversal wasn't as spectacular as silver, but nevertheless it was a solid performance.

There is an old saying that market prices can appear irrational longer than one can stay solvent.  It is one reason I do not recommend trading markets or using leverage, but instead focus on accumulating undervalued assets that are paid for in full.  For the past few weeks, and even now, the precious metals are being given away at bargain basement prices because traders of paper metal have forced the gold price lower by their relentless selling of gold's various derivative instruments.

The hedge funds in particular have been piling on and now have a record short position.  Maybe they foolishly believe that gold's 5,000-year history as money ends here.  The only thing about to end is the hedge fund short positions as the gold and silver prices look ready to blast off from current levels.  KWN readers should expect a major upside move that will panic these hedge funds out of their short positions.  In other words, the physical market is about to take down the paper traders who are massively overexposed on the short side.”

tw.myblog.yahoo.com中文翻釋

Google translate 真是笑死人 :

bars = 酒吧 ? 應該是[金條]

shorts = 短褲 ? 應該是[短倉]

建議大家還是睇英文版吧 !

索羅斯玩埋高速寬頻

news.on.cc

【on.cc 東方互動 專訊】 國際金融大鱷索羅斯話就話退休，但是這位八十二歲的老人家，其實不單止無停過，反而狙擊獵物還比以前頻密。絲絲同佢計計數，包括2月那次沽冧YEN賺了 10億美元後，再趁住英國遭穆迪除掉3條A評級之後，3月隨即再直隊英鎊，搞到鎊紙跌了近一成，之後到4月轉炒金價大跌，果然插到1,350幾美元然之後 又在金價反彈時走人，跟手又短炒一周，沽澳元賺了4,000萬鎊，再一個屈尾拾玩番轉金礦股，賺到盤滿砵滿。等你們不讚佢老而彌堅都不行!

看起來這位老人家似乎沒有諗住抖一抖的意思，剛剛又據聞佢看中了一間科技公司，聽講早前已傳過他有意買入巴西同緬甸的手機牌照，這幾天則被揭發，原來已透過旗下基金公司注資5,000萬英鎊落英國一間小型寬頻供應商，協助公司開拓英國業務。

這 間被索羅斯點石成金的電訊公司叫做Hyperoptic，只有兩、三年年資，成間公司才只有49名員工，寬頻網絡覆蓋僅僅超過二萬個家庭。公司當然 like爆，有了索羅斯這條大水喉，今年有意將業務拓展去多10個英國城市，增加網絡覆蓋至五十萬戶，並且提供網上電視服務，實行互聯網、手機、電視三管 齊下﹗

絲絲原本覺得這間電訊公司真係細了點，無甚麼市場競爭力，但原來索羅斯睇中佢背後的光纖通訊(Fiber-optic)技術，可以提供每秒1GB的網速，係當地電訊公司平均網速的83倍﹗咁有內在發展潛力，唔怪之得索羅斯會睇中佢啦﹗

儲局退市有難度

蘋果日報

聯儲局自推出QE1以來，幾乎每隔一年就傳出討論退市的聲音。但近半年這種聲音變得頻密，音量也越見提高，令越來越多人相信美國真的準備退市。如果退市是指央行減持美債資產，筆者相信在未來好幾年內都不會發生；如果退市只是指減慢買債步伐，以現時美國經濟，要推行將困難重重。
首先，聯儲局不但是美債的最大持有人，也是最大買家，有過半數新發債券由其買入。若要減少買債，美國必須先找到新買家。其次，近年美國財赤平均超過萬億美元，受惠於年初的加稅及削支措施，今個年度赤字或會少於萬億；削赤本來是減少發債的一個可行方法，但持續削赤卻會構成經濟緊縮，需要寬鬆的貨幣措施來填補增長落差。

復蘇未穩仍需刺激

當前的經濟離全面復蘇尚遠，股市及樓市回升雖有助提振消費情緒，但製造業依然疲弱，紐約及費城兩大聯儲銀行的相關指數近月均跌至負數，反映經濟存在收縮壓 力。失業率改善主要是大量人口離開了勞動市場；領取食物救濟人數近月更升至全國人口的15%以上，這些都不是美國媒體樂於報道的消息。整體物價亦有下跌趨勢，現況不但不支持退市的講法，反而更支持進一步放寬銀根來幫助經濟復元。除非日本再次加碼量寬，令全球流動性不致因聯儲局減少買債而降低，即日本印鈔買 入美債，替代一部份的美國量寬，令聯儲局有稍為淡出的機會。這亦解釋了除亞太地緣因素之外，為何美國會默許圓滙貶值。

富邦銀行（香港）第一副總裁兼投資策略及研究部主管　潘國光

股災 ?

NOW財經台: 日本跌近 -900, 而港股跌近 -500

八達通儲值將獲100%保障

蘋果日報

【本報訊】政府擴大對本港零售支付系統監管，日後無論是儲存於八達通卡等實物，或網上虛擬賬戶的儲值金額，皆可受到百分百保障。提供有關服務的機構，更須在經修訂的《結算及交收條例》下，申請儲值支付產品牌照，並受金管局監管。
根據金管局數字，去年本港儲值支付卡數量達2,200萬張，即平均每個港人擁有三張儲值支付卡。當中最為人認識的八達通公司，目前受《銀行業條例》下的多用途儲值卡制度監管，並持有接受存款公司牌照。一旦新例通過，八達通須申請儲值支付產品牌照。
八達通行政總裁張耀堂表示，設立儲值支付產品的牌照制度，可令巿場監管更完善，業界亦可於更公平的環境下競爭，冀更換牌照類型時可順利過渡。
為保障消費者，新條例下，公司收到的儲值金額必須與公司本身的資金分開，並須有保障措施支持，例如由本港銀行擔保，或於銀行設立信託戶口。公司可利用有關資金進行投資，不過投資計劃須先與金管局商討。

網上支付亦受監管

於新制度下，除了以實體形式，例如卡、鎖匙扣或手錶等儲值支付產品外，網上的儲值支付服務，例如港人網上購物愛用的支付寶或PayPal，以至於涉及金錢 的網上遊戲儲值服務，有關機構亦須領牌及受金管局監管。金管局彭醒棠預計，約有10間大型非實體儲值支付機構須領牌。
另政府亦擬將對本港具重要影響性的零售支付系統，如信用卡、扣賬卡及網上支付平台等系統，納入監管範圍。目前僅八間港信用卡及扣賬卡機構，自發性跟隨金管局認可的守則營運。
政府正就以上條例進行公眾諮詢，諮詢期至今年8月22日。完成後將於今個立法年度內，提交立法會審議。

伯南克矛盾談退市 反對收緊卻研減買債 玩殘美股滙

蘋果日報

【本報綜合報道】美國聯儲局主席伯南克昨日出席國會聽證會時，表示儲局寬鬆貨幣政策有利刺激經濟復蘇，若在復蘇未成熟之時收緊該政策反會帶來風險，導致經濟復蘇減慢或終止，同時令通脹回落。伯南克言論明顯地暗示儲局仍未就退市有共識，加上二手樓銷售數據理想，道指飆154點，再創歷史新高。其後有議員問及伯南克有關買債進度時，伯南克亦指可能於未來數次會議減少買債規模或放緩買債速度，令美股升幅收窄。
美股開市後1小時（本港昨晚10時30分），道指升68點，報15455點；納指升15點，報3517點；標普500指數升3點，報1673點。美國4月 二手樓銷售升0.6%，以年率計升497萬間，創逾3年高位，但略遜預期499萬間。美滙指數急跌至低見83.464，最多曾跌0.5%，其後回升至84 水平以上。

高失業率損害經濟

伯南克出席美國國會聯合經濟委員會作證時，指儲局寬鬆貨幣政策對失業率回落及通脹回升至預期的2%之內起正面作用，但現時就業市場仍然疲弱。上次儲局議息 時，已明確表示會在適當時候增加或減少買債，足證儲局仍然掌握經濟形勢。
他又表示，政府及國會仍需努力削減長期財政赤字，因貨幣政策不是全能，需政府以財政政策配合才能令經濟持續增長。他又指，失業率仍高企對經濟起潛在損害。
儲局副主席達德利（William Dudley）昨日較早時表示，現時就調整購債計劃作出決定還太早。由於近期經濟前景面臨不確定，需要多3至4個月時間觀察才能決定是否退市，但他不確定就業市場已出現明顯改善。
達德利又指，儲局已竭盡所能處理銀行業風險，對較高的資本緩衝有信心。他又指，對系統重要的金融機構徵收較高的費用是適當的。
研究機構Bespoke Investment數據顯示，在儲局持續放水大環境下，曾經被沽空、市值小、分析員評級最差的股份，於首季跑輸大市，但今季卻成為市場中表現最佳的股份。如在標普500指數中，50間市值最小的公司，在4月開始表現便超越其他公司，股價大升11%。
S&P Capital IQ環球股票策略師Alec Young表示，全球央行量寬措施越來越進取，加上美國經濟數據向好，較安全、高回報的投資項目估值過高，因此投資者轉向風險較高的股份。

英上月零售遜預期

英國國家統計局昨公佈，當地4月零售銷售按月跌1.3%，按年則增長0.5%，遠遜市場預期分別為持平及增長2%，而當月零售銷售按月跌幅更為一年以來最 大。至於英倫銀行公佈上次會議紀錄則顯示，對如何處理量寬措施仍有分歧，投票時以6比3結果反對進一步購買資產。
國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）其後表示，英國情況令人鼓舞，但距強勁及可持續復蘇仍很遙遠，當地貨幣政策應該維持寬鬆，或考慮買入更多英債，並將手上持有的蘇皇及萊斯銀行股權出售。

摩通招聘廣告晒冷講金

news.on.cc

【on.cc 東方互動 專訊】 絲絲間不中都會留意招聘廣告，睇睇有甚麼荀工可以介紹給朋友。最近摩根大通就出了一個幾特別的招聘廣告，特別之處不在於他們的offer有幾好，而是這個廣告在字行間透露了一些有關倫敦金庫的「冷知識」！

今次摩根大通想招聘的是貴金屬清算專家(Bullion Physical and Clearing Specialist)，廣告都循例介紹了公司在黃金市場的業務同職責。當中就提到，原來摩根大通持有的金條佔成個倫敦黃金清算市場45%，每日要處理 5,000個交易，涉及的金額足足有400億美元！

摩根大通的金庫仲同中國、印度、泰國同土耳其有寄售協議，亦會為客戶提供金條批發同貴金屬運送服務。而這個職位除了負責幫客戶處理一般的貴金屬買賣交易之外，其中一項職責更要求員工幫手協調運金的工作，分分鐘可能要自己落手落腳搬埋一份！

其實講了這麼多內幕，摩根大通無非都是想給一眾求職者知道，這份工一點都不易做，要諗清楚先好來見工啊！

阿伯講完野

市場大波動, 美元先轉弱之後反彈, 還要升突 !

而金銀價先升後跌返 !

1/20盎司澳洲第一期生肖2006年狗年金幣

9999純金普製金幣
直經 14.1 毫米
限量發行(100,000枚), 但只賣咗 15,737 枚
有原廠圓膠盒裝住

早排 SCS 幫手去 apmex 買, 875.67一枚, 但依家無曬貨 !
舊年份小金幣多數好貴, 所以呢個價算平 !
1/20盎司小金幣要平來說, apmex 依家還有賣的是第二期生肖2013年蛇年金幣, 約90美元 !

新疆發現特大金礦 資源儲量達53噸

蘋果日報

經過5年勘查評價，新疆地礦部門近日在地處西北邊陲的伊犁河谷發現一處特大型金礦，可提交金資源儲量53噸，遠景資源量有望達上百噸，潛在經濟價值近200億元人民幣。

新華社

持續買金 儲放地點絕對不會在美國！

news.on.cc

【on.cc 東方互動 專訊】 「末日博士」麥嘉華接受CNBC專訪時指出，他在每安士1,400美元的價位已買進黃金，且每個月都會買一些。麥嘉華稱，他買進的是實體黃金，而儲存的地點也絕對不會選在美國。

在被問到何以不把黃金存在全世界最安全的國家時，麥嘉華表示，他不確定美國在當前政府的執掌下是否還安全。他稱，早在1933年，美國政府就曾向人民以每安士25美元的低價買進黃金，然後再把價格拉抬至每安士35美元。

麥嘉華認為，美國政府有可能會故技重施，刻意壓低價格並宣稱持有黃金不合法，然後再從人民手上強收黃金。舉例說，美國政府可能會把金價壓低至1,000美元，以便用這個價碼收購黃金，然後再將價格抬至10,000美元。

麥嘉華早前接受採訪時曾建議投資者把黃金儲存在美國以外的自由港，例如瑞士、新加坡或香港。

伯南克明赴聽證會 料不輕言退市

文匯報

美國近期經濟數據轉強，外界預期聯儲局可能即將縮減量化寬鬆(QE)規模，紛紛觀望主席伯南克明日出席國會經 濟委員會聽證會的講話。聯儲局同日亦會公布上次議息會議紀錄，市場希望能從中找到局方今後政策方向的蛛絲馬跡。雖然多位聯儲銀行行長近日均放風支持退市， 但太平洋投資管理公司(PIMCO)策略師克雷申齊認為，伯南克在聽證會上最多只會肯定經濟改善，但不會輕言退市。克雷申齊稱，局方此時叫停QE將是太快，只會令經濟失去動力。

　美國10年期國債孳息率過去3周節節上升，創今年最長升勢，帶動美債價格跌至2011年3月以來最低，與德債息差亦是20多年來最小。10年期美債息率昨跌3基點，報1.92厘。扣除通脹後，10年期美債孳息率上周報0.91厘，較英債高 1.77%。另外，新興市場債券孳息率月初升至5.22厘，首次高於美國企業債，吸引PIMCO追捧。　　

■彭博通訊社/CNBC

「貨幣海嘯」殃及德國 日G8峰會有難

文匯報

日圓貿易加權匯率今年累跌12%，不但周邊出口競爭對手受影響，連歐洲經濟火車頭德國亦因日圓兌歐元匯價大挫 16%而遭殃。雖然七國集團(G7)峰會「放生」圓匯下挫，但德國在會上已警告日本應採取結構性改革應對經濟問題，而非一味促貶日圓刺激出口，估計日本在下月17至18日八國集團(G8)峰會上，將面臨更大壓力。除有競爭性貶值的嫌疑外，日本「貨幣海嘯」亦可能衍生資產泡沫及令熱錢流向加速波動，危及周邊小型經濟體。

對美洲出口增 彌補對華出口減 

　由於領土主權爭議升溫，日本對中國出口去年減少12%後，截至今年3月再減近3%，與此同時，對美國及拉丁美洲的出口大增7%及12%，令人質疑日本借日圓下挫來提振其他出口市場，以彌補中日貿易減少的損失。

　有媒體指出，日本在放寬貨幣政策之外，亦積極擴大房屋需求，從而帶動佔經濟產出6成的住宅投資及家庭消費增加；日本人口老化問題極嚴重，令長遠經濟發展乏力，要改變趨勢，政府須將1.37%的生育率提高至2.1%。 　

■CNBC

金銀反摯

Thousands of French Households Taxed 100%

法國超高稅, 唔想經濟死都難 !

點解歐洲可以搞到無得救 ?

因為太好的福利, 而錢要有來源, 羊毛出在羊身上 !

就說荷蘭, 如果做生意借錢買車買房, 利息可以由營業額扣除, 但如果你供完房屋, 在資產上就會有資產稅, 還有銀行存款收息, 收到的利息會加入你收入計稅; 所以結果是, 無人會儲錢, 有錢都花咗佢, 而房屋就永遠唔好供完, 供到咁上下就要加按 !

所以人民的車呀, 船呀, 物業呀全是銀行資產, 一唔小心就死銀行 !
成個制度唔鼓勵人民自力儲養老金或供滿銀行可以享受無按揭物業 !


finance.yahoo.com

More than 8,000 French households' tax bills topped 100 percent of their income in 2012, according to a French newspaper report.

Citing data from France's finance ministry, the business newspaper Les Echos reported on Friday that in addition to those taxed at over 100 percent last year, almost 12,000 households paid taxes worth more than 75 percent of their 2011 income and that a further 9,910 households were taxed at more than 85 percent of their income.

The paper said this was due to a one-off levy imposed on the 2011 incomes of households with assets of more than 1.3 million euros ($1.67 million) . The surcharge was introduced by socialist President Francois Hollande in an attempt to offset the cost of a rebate scheme and taxation cap introduced by former President Nikolas Sarkozy, the paper added.

Gold & Silver Smash & What Soros & Major Players Are Doing

金銀市場牛熊大戰, 手上有實金實銀的當是持有收藏品, 可以坐上十幾廿年都唔會俾人震出來 ! 所以一早說過, 一唔借錢, 二唔訓身, 三只用閒錢, 對生活絕無影響 !

kingworldnews.com

Today one of the savviest and well connected hedge fund managers in the world spoke with King World News about the high volume takedown in the gold and silver markets and what major players such as Soros and other are doing right now.  Outspoken Hong Kong hedge fund manager William Kaye also discussed who is on the buy side of all of this selling.  Kaye, who 25 years ago worked for Goldman Sachs in mergers and acquisitions, had this to say in this tremendous interview.

Kaye:  “This is unusually high volume of trading in gold and silver in Asia.  We have already traded about 45,000 contracts and it’s still very early in the trading day.  But as I said, that’s unusually high volume. 

The suppression of the metals, which became pretty intense during US trading on Friday, has continued in the very thin Asian trading.  So this is a pretty interesting setup.  It’s clear that wherever they want to push the price of gold and silver they are not done yet....

“I’m not sure what their target is, but we are starting to see a bit of a fight break out now between the bulls and teh bears.  The battle is getting joined by major players.  There was evidence of a very large sovereign buyer at the fix in London on Friday.  So there was major interest for physical gold at levels roughly $40 higher than where we are at the moment.

At the same time we have publicly bearish elite such as George Soros, who is still telling everybody to sell their gold, who has personally turned extremely bullish.  He is adding to his positions, including the most leveraged way you could play a recovery in the gold price.  He is buying call options on the listed index for the junior gold miners.

Now, there is no more leveraged way that you could play a recovery in gold price than taking that position.  So what he is saying is he is willing to risk $25 million by leveraging long in the gold market because this is a position that could easily go to zero.

So he’s risking his money in a relatively short period of time.  The disclosure in the filing does not give you the duration of the call option, but it should logically be listed as a warrant if it was more than a year.  And having structured these kinds of products back in my days on Wall Street, and sold them to clients, typically options of this type have anywhere from a 30 day to a six month duration. 

So what Soros is really saying is, ‘Personally I’m bullish, but I would like to buy gold even cheaper than it is today, so please sell it to me.  Meanwhile I’m positioning myself in the very near-term to see a major rally in the price of gold.’  That’s what he is really betting on.”

Kaye also added:  “What’s interesting is that they don’t expend very much ammunition doing these types of raids during thin Asian trading in the gold and silver markets.  Yes, the price action is down and the volume is relatively high, but key players haven’t backed off from the buy side here.

Even in thin Asian trading there are market participants who are willing to buy these contracts, even though they are well aware that the people manipulating these markets can still take the price lower.  Even in those conditions, the bottom line is there are players that are still on the buy side here in both gold and silver.”

伯南克本周或談退市

蘋果日報

【本報綜合報道】美國經濟數據理想，增加市場對該國復蘇前景的信心，帶動美股上周續創新高。但由於市場對聯儲局可能提早退市的憂慮升溫，儲局主席伯南克本 周三出席國會聽證會評論經濟前景時，以至同日出爐的儲局會議紀錄，會否提及退市，將是本周大市焦點。
上周儲局多個「鷹派」官員提出意見，本周輪到「鴿派」官員發言，其中包括芝加哥儲行行長埃文斯，及紐約聯儲銀行主席杜德利。上周「鷹派」代表費城儲行行長普羅索，及三藩市聯儲銀行行長威廉姆斯均表示，儲局可在夏季開始縮減買債行動。
事 實上，市場對儲局應何時退市亦有分歧，摩根大通經濟師認為，儲局將於6月開始商討減慢買債步伐，年底開始實行；高盛經濟師則預期12月開始討論，明年初實 行。BK Asset Management外滙策略部門總管Boris Schlossberg則指，美國經濟數據時好時壞，故極度懷疑儲局短期內會否就退市作出明確的表態。

多項樓市數據將出爐

此外，美國亦將於本周公佈多項樓市數據，包括周三公佈的4月二手樓銷售，周四公佈3月樓價指數及4月新屋銷售；周五將公佈4月耐用品訂單。
另 外，彭博社繼續為「竊密風暴」善後，該公司委任IBM前主席兼行政總裁Sam Palmisano任獨立顧問，檢討該公司處理客戶資料的手法，他將向彭博董事會建議如何加強現時的措施及政策。彭博社行政總裁多克托羅夫（Daniel Doctoroff）重申已就事件道歉，並採取相應行動，今次委任獨立顧問目的是進一步為公司制定新的私隱及保安標準。

黄金的沉默与辉煌

唔怪得中國大媽要買金飾啦 ! 愈跌愈買 !

笑大媽傻的人都唔知邊個傻 ?

blog.sina.com.cn

 我们现在该如何看待黄金？黄金将走向哪里？我们需要对它有更理性的认识。

 本文将黄金分成两大块来看：一大块是实物黄金，一大块是以实物黄金为基础的各种衍生品（黄金衍生品属于金融衍生品的一种）。黄金市场衍生工具分为标准化的场内交易品种和非标准化的场外交易品种。标准化场内交易产品，主要品种包括黄金期货、黄金期权、黄金ETF（交易所交易黄金基金）等。非标准化场外交易主要包括黄金借贷、黄金凭证、黄金投资基金、黄金远期类产品（包括黄金远期、黄金掉期、远期利率协议）等。

 在国际黄金市场中，实物黄金的交易占比是比较小的，而黄金衍生品的占比近年来一直都在90%以上。2010年7月，外管局曾对黄金储备做了明确表态：“过去几年中国增加了400多吨的黄金储备，目前黄金储备已达到1054吨，即使再增加一倍，也仅能分散三四百亿美元的外汇储备投资，黄金储备占外汇储备的比重仅提高一两个百分点。”显然，外管局认为黄金实物市场太小了。

 因此，讨论黄金投资价值的时候，需要把两者分开。接下来将从衍生品与实物黄金两部分来谈黄金。

 对于黄金衍生品的观点，我从2005年起看多黄金，到2011年9月为一个分水岭。

 2011年9月4日，我在《九月的棋局》一文中写道：“显然会加速资金向美国本土的回撤”。“下周起，美元将被走强”（从2011年9月5日起，美元正式步入一个长达4到6年的上涨周期，此观点我在《时寒冰说：欧债真相警示中国》和多篇博文中反复强调。对于那些以短期走势看待长趋势的人，本人表示很无奈）。

 011年9月21日，我在《伯南克会说什么？》中写道：在美国轻松度过主权债评级下调危机，及欧债危机的恶化，强化了美元的霸主地位……美联储比任何主体都更有动力和欲望推出QE3，同样是因为可以累积更多的现金，如果条件允许，伯南克绝不放过这样的机会。美国轻松度过主权债评级下调危机后，黄金的投资价值阶段性削弱。美元与黄金的同步性问题，也明显变弱……无论QE是否推出，美元的趋势都只有一个，它不会因为QE而发生改变。会一直延续到美元“被”走强的阶段结束而走出独立趋势。

 美元步入强势上涨周期和黄金美元同步性的结束，意味着从衍生品角度来看，黄金投资魅力的减弱。而美国经济的复苏，意味着黄金避险功能的再次削弱。

 那么，黄金衍生品辉煌阶段的过去，意味着实物黄金保值价值的结束吗？

 不！它丝毫不减弱实物黄金的固有价值，尤其对于中国人而言！

 这似乎显得矛盾，但却是有内在因素所决定的。我们必须通过表象看到本质，在打压黄金的背后，暗含着对实物黄金的贪婪的掠夺和占有。其背后的意味深长非常值得考量。

 看看这则新闻：2013年4月13日：“塞浦路斯恐怕不卖黄金也不行了，虽然塞政府否认了出售4亿欧元黄金储备的传闻，但这次换欧洲央行行长德拉吉施压。他说，塞央行出售黄金的所有利润都必须用于弥补向国内商业银行提供紧急贷款的损失。”

 有高盛背景的德拉吉和IMF一起逼迫塞浦路斯交出黄金，因为有人想买走它！而且，通过消息的提前散布制造恐惧效应打压黄金价格，以便用更低的价格买走。塞浦路斯政府最舍不得的就是出售它的黄金，所以才立即否认。黄金虽然不再是现在意义上的货币，但它依然具有货币的功能，且是一国货币信誉和稳定之锚。这一基础即使在当今这个时代也依然不动摇。

 近年来美联储可曾抛售过实物黄金？即使那些肆意打压黄金的人，有谁在通过抛售实物黄金打压？为何都通过衍生品市场行动？通过衍生品市场打压，既可以短期实现在这个高杠杆的市场中获取巨额暴利，又可以为未来买到便宜的实物打下基础。作为欧洲央行行长的德拉吉却逼迫塞浦路斯出售黄金，这必然最终伤害到欧元赖以存在的一个基础。从这一点上来看，欧元的结局其实也是一种宿命。

我们再看看另外的数据： 根据世界黄金协会每年发布的《黄金需求趋势报告》： 自2009年第二季度以来，全球央行成为黄金净买家。 2010年，各国央行黄金购买量为77吨。 2011年，各国央行的黄金净买入量为439.7吨，创下1964年以来的最高纪录； 2012年，全球央行购买了534.6公吨黄金，再创1964年以来的最高记录。

 只有像中国央行这样的世界极其罕见的用脚思考用脑袋走路用屁股微笑的极品漂流着的蠢猪才会拼命买欧洲甚至希腊等危机国家的债券、买日本债券却严重轻视黄金等实物储备，所以，中国央行在国际上获得了比千万个萤火虫排列在一起更光彩夺目的荣誉——由于它的超乎人类想象的极端的愚蠢，国际上对它的爱戴已经不能用现有的语言和文字来表述，只能用一个个华丽的证书和奖章串联起来表达他们的敬慕之情，以鼓励和麻痹中国继续在愚蠢的道路上犹如精神病人一样忘我而陶醉的走下去，直到输掉仅有的衣服一丝不挂地步入彻底的原始人般的低碳生活。

 各国央行（不含中国）为什么成为实物黄金的净买家？因为，他们非常清楚货币在以怎样的状态超发！他们同样清楚作为货币之锚的作用，黄金的价值在哪里？

 对于中国而言，实物黄金更具有不可轻视的价值。不妨看看下面这则新闻：

 通过全球主要央行2008—2012年M2数据得出，截至2012年末，全球货币供应量余额已超过人民币366万亿元。其中，超过100万亿元人民币即27%左右，是在金融危机爆发的2008年后5年时间里新增的货币供应量。

 从存量上看，中国货币量已领先全球。至2012年末，中国M2余额达到人民币97.42万亿元，世界第一，全球货币供应总量的四分之一，是美国的1.5倍。增量上，全球范围来看，在新增的货币供应量上，中国已连续4年贡献约一半。金融危机爆发以后的2009—2011年间，全球新增M2中，人民币贡献了48%；在2011年贡献率更是达到52%。这样的增长规模和态势在世界各国经济发展史上都是少有的。

 这对未来意味着什么？

 我们都知道，近阶段美元在升值，人民币对内的实际购买力也一直在下降。人民币对美元等却是升值的，而这种升值对中国的产业又意味着什么？等待中国的，等待人民币的未来又是什么？谁能看到这正在一步步把中国引入史无前例的大萧条之中？看着那些被暂时的假象迷惑的人爆发出愤怒的咆哮和春天母猫般激荡的烈焰，你就很容易理解，阻止愚蠢的人兴高采烈地走向不归之路或者在人们被即将喷发的火焰烧死之前去浇一盆凉水是多么危险的选择。人各有宿命，上帝改变不了的，谁也不可能改变得了。

 因此，即使全世界都轻视实物黄金的价值，中国人也没有任何理由轻视黄金。即使黄金衍生品的价格下跌，考虑到未来要面对的系统性的风险，在下跌动能释放充分后再适当配置一些实物黄金依然是必要的（比例根据个人财产状况和投资偏好而定），至于价位的选择有个人自己选择，或者由每个人的宿命而定。对于国人而言，实物金的作用不在于获取它的升值收益，而在于规避未来的X风险。当然，前提是买的必须是真正的黄金——我自从讲黄金问题开始，就一直强调这一点。在这样一个为一点蝇头小利都敢造假甚至危害他人性命的国家，对黄金的真假必须予以高度重视。 

 那么，未来的黄金趋势如何看？

 4月12日黄金大跌，国际两位对冲基金巨头损失惨重。John Paulson一天就亏损3亿美元。黄金暴跌之际Paulson & Co.公司的合伙人兼黄金策略师John Reade周五接受彭博社采访时说：“近期黄金价格下跌没有改变我们的长期观点。我们从2009年4月开始投资黄金，那时候黄金价格是900美元，尽管现在从峰值跌到了1500美元，但仍远高于我们的成本。”“联邦政府以前所未有的速度印钱，我们预期经济和股票市场走强将造成货币供应增长速度超过真实增长，最终造成通胀。就是这种纸货币将贬值的预期让黄金成为吸引人的投资。”而David Einhorn的绿光资本一季度已经将黄金变成其基金的第三大仓位。在最近一次与投资者沟通时，Einhorn披露了他的五大持仓，其中黄金主要是实物黄金，而不是黄金ETF。新闻来源：http://wallstreetcn.com/node/23818
 
 这些国际巨头对黄金的分析犯下了错误。等待John Paulson的，或将是一个惨烈的悲剧，对于高杠杆的衍生品种，大比例持仓很容易导致严重后果，别忘了，在黄金大牛市中也不断有人爆仓，遑论在下跌阶段？在国际大局势变化的时候，一些分析的着眼点也必须变化。一个最简单的道理：当美元走强，资源品下跌，恰是美国出手收购全球资源的最佳时机。再没有人比美国的掌舵者更清楚资源为王的意义。

 现在对黄金的打压，并不是要抛弃黄金，而是为了获取、掠夺更多的实物黄金资源，那些人比谁都清楚黄金固有的价值和意义！中国央行如果不是买了那么多垃圾债券，将来完全可以趁价格被打到低位之后再大肆收购实物黄金，让那些打压黄金的人变成中国的帮手，这将是一个千载难逢的强化本币之锚并占据资源最高点俯瞰世界的机会！ 

 伴随着大宗商品的下跌，美元很快就将爆发出井喷般的如虹涨势。在完成资源收购以后，美国的债务危机才能够真正得到解决——很多人都没有看到这一点，而这也是我当时坚信美国必定会推出QE3的逻辑依据之一。美联储的行动甚至跟我推出的日期都吻合。我此前认为美联储必须在2012年12月底以前完成量化宽松政策，结果，美国不仅在9月推出了QE3，而且，在当年12月推出了QE4，与我的推导是一致的。

 在很多人盯着美国的债务，认为美国将被债务压垮时，美国却另辟蹊径，超发货币的同时，吸引全球资金回流美国，为其在世界范围内展开大收购做充分准备。当这些资源控制在美国人手里，资源为王的意义对于中国这样的国家将是不寒而栗的恐怖，而美国将彻底化解掉债务危机。而在此之前的这段时间，包括黄金在内的大宗商品仍将处于弱势，继续以下跌摧毁人们脆弱的信心。美国不会在资源贵的时候出手，它耐心等待的是价廉物美。在美国的大鳄们张开资金大网完成收购以后，资源的飞涨之路也随即打开。不管何时，顺势而为永远是明智和正确的选择。（本人观点仅仅是个人看法，为读者作出理智和正确的判断提供一点思路，不作为任何人决策的依据）

China Bubble or Breakout?

以為民主就可以解決一切的人一定要讀 !

以為美國是天堂的人都一樣要讀 !

armstrongeconomics.com

QUESTION:    I’m a reader from China and one of the big fans of you in our country. I want to ask you a question and would be very happy to get your reply. If my memories are correct, you have been a bull of China and praised Chinese leaders for their competence. But in reality, Chinese people are very disapproval of the government, to be more exactly, hate and curse! As you know, aside from problems of severe pollution and food safety,China has a very big housing bubble and the price is well beyond people’s purchasing power. Many young people had to use their parent’s  retirement savings or even borrow the rest from relatives as down payment to buy an apartment so they can get married. On the other hand, most Chinese public servants have many many suites of apartment——to hide their bribery money in many cases. Corruption is widespread in China, everywhere. People are yearning for democracy and election, and not trust one-party politics anymore. Also, many people are expecting a crash of china’s housing market. Sadly enough, they have been expecting for many years but the price just won’t stop rising.
So, what’s your opinion, about china’s politics and housing market? I will be very eager
to wait for your answer. Thank you very much.

Yours,

Beijing,China

ANSWER: Politicians in the USA like to point their collective finger at China for corruption problems while they sanction a legalized system of corruption that ensured the NY bankers will NEVER be prosecuted. Furthermore, in the USA, politicians receive untold millions legally funneled to them by political action committees. The PACs assure that Congress votes the way that those who provide the money want it to. Why is Goldman Sachs above the law? They bought both parties equally. Rubin took charge of the Treasury under Clinton and did away with Glass-Steagall. Paulson took over the Treasury from him and eliminated Lehman and Bear Stearns, but as soon as Goldman’s was getting shorted he outlawed short selling. Nobody in Congress will even investigate Goldman Sachs because they have their hand out under the pretense it is LEGAL.
China should just LEGALIZE the corruption like it is done in all GOOD upstanding Democracies and it will not be an issue regardless what goes on.

All government is what it is. The ONLY form of government that seems to work is the benevolent dictator. But that is rare. Give people power and they all go nuts no matter what form of government. So the people can yearn for democracy, but it will be no better. Where the government of China deserves credit is they saw Communism failed, they changed course without a revolution after Tenamin Square, whereas we have Homeland Security buying tanks for domestic use and 1.6 billion bullets enough to shoot every American 5 times. I wonder if when their tanks roll down our streets, will they stop as they did in Beijing?

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/02/14/homeland-security-bullets_n_2688402.html

So when it comes to government, on this score, I and with Thrasymachus. I see no difference between left or right, the names employed, or the pretended form. It is always just their issue of self-survival. So be very careful what you wish for. Without eliminating a system run by CAREER politicians, there will never be any REAL change in corruption.

As far as the economy some housing prices may have bottomed in 2012. Keep in mind hat it is volatile and that prices were rising from an extremely low level. The government has taken steps to try to suppress the cycle unlike in the United States. The 2010 reforms were.

• The down payment for first-time buyers’ mortgages was increased to 30% from 20%, while for second homes down payment rose to 60% from 50%.
• Mortgages for third home purchases were prohibited.
• There were limitations on home purchases in more areas, credit-quota limits and higher benchmark lending rates.
• New property taxes were introduced in Shanghai and Chongqing – between 0.4% and 0.6% in Shanghai, and between 0.5% and 1.2% on luxury homes and newly purchased high-end homes in Chongqing, plus a special tax on second home purchases by people with no business or employment interest in the city.
• In early-2011, Beijing also banned property purchase to those who have not lived in the province for five years, limited the number of homes a native Beijing family could own to two, and allowed only one home for non-native Beijing families.
• Mortgage discount for first-time homebuyers was eliminated.
• The benchmark interest rate was raised to 6.56% in July 2011, the third interest rate hike last year.

Keep in mind that these measures would NEVER have been taken in the United States when politicians need to be elected. There is always two-sides to a coin. Some of the steps taken in Singapore trying to suppress the real estate boom there once again were sound measures that would never be imposed by elected politicians.

Prices on a percentage basis historically rise more rapidly and sales are at record highs when first beginning in a national cycle. During the land bubble in the United States that burst in 1836 and led to the Panic of 1837, saw 1.2 million acres sold in 1829 at $1.5 million amounting to 80 cents and acre. At the peak in 1836, the government sold 20 million acres at $25 million at still 80 cents. Land speculation was dominant. What caused the bubble to burst was the Specie Circular demanding payment in gold and silver. The Act of 1820 stopped the government financing the land decreeing that the land had to be paid in cash, which was simply banknotes. This only made the banks now the lender so the bubble continued. The politicians failed to create a market economy and wanted to be seen as generous selling land at 80 cents and acre. Speculative market were booming and in some cases land prices reached $2.50. This created a real estate bubble that became nationwide. Mobile saw the land value of the city jump from $1.3 million to $27.5 million between 1831 to 1837. New York City doubled in value from $300 million to $600 million. The government surplus jumped from $8.1 million to $19.9 million annually between 1829 to 1836. The government couldn’t possibly lower taxes fast enough or low enough to prevent budget surpluses even at 80 cents.

Keep in mind it is not a bubble merely because of price. Who wouldn’t pay $3 an acre today for what was a bubble in 1836. It is a bubble because of TIME, not price. We are gathering all the data possible of the real estate in China because it is important to see when the bubble will burst. Second hand house prices are rising. So this requires close attention. One concern is we reached 23 years from 1989. The 26 year target would be 2015. It will not continue beyond that target in TIME.

現貨金七連跌 低見1,355

蘋果日報

【本報綜合報道】近期經濟數據普遍向好，刺激美股接連破頂，道指及標普500指數上周五繼續創歷史新高，並錄得連續第四周上升。道指上周五一度升至 15357點的日中新高，收市升121點，報15354點；標普500指數亦以全日最高位1667點收市，兩者同創歷史收市新高。港股美國預託證券 （ADR）普遍上升。

摩通料美股再升3%

納指則升33點，收報3498點，創2000年以來最高水平。全周累計，道指升1.6%；標普升2%；納指則升1.8%。
美 國當日公佈5月的密歇根大學消費者信心升至近六年高位，反映經濟增長勢頭仍然保持，刺激股市上升。摩通順勢調高標指今年底目標水平，由1580點上調至 1715點，以上周五收市計，指數尚有約3%上升空間。摩通策略師Thomas Lee指，科技、醫健及金融類股份的風險回報仍處於具吸引力的水平。
與此同時，美滙指數急升至近三年高位，上周五最高曾見84.371。強美元令金價及其他貨幣滙價繼續下滑。其中現貨金價更連跌七日，當日最低曾跌2.2%， 至低見1355美元。紐約6月期金價最低報每盎斯1353美元，期金亦已累計七日下跌，是2009年3月以來最長跌浪。
其餘貨幣同樣因強美元而無運行，日圓穿103關，美元兌日圓最高曾見103.31；每百日圓兌港元亦跌至7.5151。歐元則一度跌穿1.28關，最低曾見1.2796，最終收報1.2839。德銀指，雖然歐元應已度過了最黑暗階段，但在商業周期逐步好轉下，資金會轉為外流，加上美元轉強，預期歐元今年年底前，會由目前的1.28美元跌至1.20美元水平。
此外，美國財政部上周五表示，債務上限臨時放寬安排本周屆滿後，已預備了措施令華府有2,600億美元財政空間，短期內不會觸及債務上限。
財政部指，有關措施是以前已經用過，目前最先會應用於禁售供地方政府臨時投資的國債。財政部又指，連同其他三項措施，聯邦政府可以在9月2日前都不會出現違約危機。

商品期貨市場競爭烈

呢些市場是俾專業人士或商家玩的, 所以散戶還是乖乖買市面實金實銀吧 !

文匯報

香港文匯報訊（記者 葉卓偉）香港商交所成立以來，產品集中在黃金及白銀期貨，一直受到本港金銀業貿易場的同類型產品競爭。另外，中國內地致力掌握商品期貨的國際話語權，內地的商品期貨交易所發展亦相當進取。商交所可謂同時面對本港及內地同業的競爭。

金銀期貨交投按年齊挫 

　商交所在2008年宣布成立，但要到2011年才獲證監會批出自動化交易服務牌照，產品亦僅「32金衡盎司美元黃金期貨合約」及「1,000金衡盎司美元白銀期貨合約」兩種。該所去年全年日均成交量5,841張合約，全年成交額718億美元。

　據商交所網頁披露，黃金期貨合約在今年4月的總成交量為12,866張，比3月的45,462張， 按月大跌71.7%，比去年同期的85,730張則跌85%。至於白銀期貨合約，今年4月的總成交量為5,323張，雖然按月增加292%，但對比去年4 月的19,923張，按年減少73.3%。

　事實上，商交所的競爭對手—金銀業貿易場近年來動作多多，其「本地香港銀」現貨合約交易平台剛在5月初啟動，該平台除了現貨白銀交易外，還具備結算機制、現貨交收和國際流通現金交割，為亞洲區首個結合4個功能的現貨白銀交易平台。

人幣計價產品遲遲未推 

　另一方面，本港致力發展人民幣離岸業務。商交所原本計劃於去年推出以人民幣計價的期貨產品，但因技術問題至今仍未推出。相反金銀業貿易場早在2011年推出「人民幣公斤條黃金」，為全球首個人民幣離岸黃金產品，可讓外國或本地金商進行套戥賺取差價，同時亦可透過槓桿買賣人民幣獲利。據金銀業貿易場理事長張德熙早前透露，「人民幣公斤條黃金」日均成交額為50億至60億元人民幣。 

　與此同時，港交所亦銳意進軍商品期貨，該所在去年以167億元收購倫敦金屬交易所（LME）。港交所主席周松崗日前表示，港交所已著手降低LME入場門檻，期望吸納更多內地及本港的機構成LME會員，甚至引入一般散戶也可買賣的小型合約等。

翻查資料，張震遠早在2006年9月已向政府提出建議成立香港商交所。前任特首曾蔭權在2007年1月提出 《「十一五」與香港發展》行動綱領內，倡議發展商品交易所。2008年宣佈成立後亦獲得財爺曾俊華「祝福」，故張震遠亦曾承認政府在商交所成立上扮演很重 要角色。商交所2008年成立初期的資本額約5,000萬美元。

　商交所主要股東包括俄鋁（0486）母公司EN+集團、工商銀行（1398）、中遠（1919）母公司中遠集團股東，各持有10%股權。而張震遠全資持有的離岸公司新效控股，則持有56%股權，為商交所的大股東。

蘋果日報

【本報訊】商交所突爆煲，一眾經紀會員感到愕然，卻未見惋惜，有人更力數商交所產品少、差價闊、每日交投僅15小時三大死因，吸引力遠遜英美同業，因此一直遭冷淡對待，「加入做會員只是一個畀面派對」。
經紀會員今日將以上周四收市價，為相關期貨合約平倉，但本報向多間經紀會員查詢，均表示目前持倉極少，相信今日不會出現混亂。敦沛及耀才更是零持倉，其中耀才行政總裁陳啓峰坦言，該行其實一直未有推出相關產品供買賣，當初加入做會員「係諗住佢哋會有把握做到，搞多啲產品，但市場反應一直都唔大」，他指是「有 少少失望」。

交投弱莊家少差價闊

同為結算會員的輝立表示，該行目前相關產品的持倉僅「幾十手」，並指商交所產品選擇只得期金及期銀兩種，交投弱莊家少，故買賣差價普遍較闊，加上交易時間 僅由早上8時至晚上11時，在環球期貨24小時無間斷交投下，明顯未能吸引投資者，競爭力不及環球金屬產品。凱基證券營運總裁鄺民彬則認為，商交所面向神 州的發展方針，「搞到佢兩頭唔到岸」。

新台幣2500萬現鈔本周運陸

文匯報

香港文匯報訊　

  據中央社報道，台灣銀行董事長劉燈城昨天表示，繼農曆春節前新台幣2500萬元現鈔運往大陸後，第二批新台幣2500萬元現鈔計劃本周運陸，以因應大陸地區新台幣的資金需求。

　「海峽兩岸貨幣清算合作備忘錄」2012年8月31日簽署後，台「中央銀行」在同年9月17日遴選出台灣銀行上海分行為大陸地區新台幣清算行，供應大陸地區新台幣現鈔。

營運開支不足 商品交易所自願放棄牌照

hk.news.yahoo.com

香港商品交易所宣布，自願放棄由證監會發出的牌照，即自動化交易服務認可，原因是收入不足以應付營運開支。

證監會已撤回有關認可，發出正式通知，即時生效。
商品交易所主席張震遠說，今次是暫時安排，正進行配股、重組及發展新產品，希望幾個月後再申請牌照，交易所不會裁員。

文匯報

香港文匯報訊（記者 黃嘉銘）香港拓展商品期貨市場受挫，香港商品交易所（下稱商交所）昨日宣佈，自願放棄由證監會批發的自動化交易服務（ATS）供應商資格，證監會已撤回有 關認可，並發出正式通知，即時生效。商交所解釋，鑑於交易所帶來的收入不足以應付營運開支，決定交回其提供自動化交易服務的認可，將不可繼續提供自動化交 易服務。商交所主席張震遠稱，現時產品不夠競爭力，要集資重組。停止交易後會繼續運作，保留現有員工，希望6月底再申請自動化交易服務的資格。

　根據商交所的退市安排，於今年5月16日交易時間結束時仍未平倉的合約，將會按照商交所及其指 定結算所釐訂的結算價作現金結算，並以美元交收。而投資者將會得到相關的詳細訊息，並將於周一（5月20日）上午將議定的結算價格通知會員。商交所盡快聯 絡會員，確保其自動化交易服務的運作有秩序地結束，證監會將與商交所保持密切聯繫。投資者如有疑問，可致電商交所熱線3900 9733查詢。 

適時再申ATS 不會裁員 

　張震遠接受本地傳媒訪問時表示，商交所自願向證監會交回牌照，原因是未能滿足證監會要求，帳目上資 金不足9個月營運開支。但張震遠強調，商交所會繼續經營，正進行配股行動，6月底前會配股籌集1億美元資金，將有足夠資金應付未來幾年經營。此外，商交所 會重組、優化股東架構、人事及產品，會加強做市商制度，並在適當時機重新申請ATS資格以推出新產品，不會裁員。 

張震遠：確保順利平倉 

　張震遠承認，今次是一個挫折，並指創業總有挫折，但他們並未放棄，仍相信商品交易的前景，現時要優先處理的事宜是保障會員的利益 ，確保平倉活動順利進行。

　此外，被問及事件是否與花太多時間在公職有關，張震遠回應指，公職與交易所的業務並無矛盾，交易所有優秀管理團隊，未來會繼續平衡公職與交易所業務。

　商交所於2008年6月25日宣佈成立。張震遠在任職泰山石化（1192）時已積極研究成立商交 所。而早在商交所宣布成立之前個多星期，當時財爺曾俊華在報章撰文大談香港要發展黃金及燃料油期貨等商品市場，被指為商交所造勢，皆因香港發展燃料油期 貨，可協助中國這個石油入口大國對沖油價風險。而選址在中國境內的香港成立商交所，亦較好管理。

2011年起開市 會員達43家 

　商交所於2011年5月正式開始交易，提供貴金屬、農產品、能源和金融指數的期貨及期權合約。至上周三，商交所宣布新增灝天環球、中國邁科及弘蘇期貨（香港）為經紀會員，交易所會員總數至此達到43家。商交所目前提供兩種產品包括32金衡盎司（1公斤）黃金期貨和1,000金衡盎司白銀期貨合約，均以美元計價並可在香港進行實物交收。

North American Oil Production to Dominate World Supply

因為新技術, 所以北美洲可以在山區地方抽取石油, 而產量可以影響到中東產油國 !

問題是, 呢些油產量, 可以救到美國的龐大赤字嗎 ?

online.wsj.com

May 14, 2013, 4:16 a.m. ET

By SARAH KENT AND JUSTIN SCHECK

North American oil production will dominate world-wide supply growth over the next five years, the International Energy Agency predicted Tuesday, the result of growing production from "fracking" and other technologies that access once-inaccessible reserves.
It is a shift that few predicted five years ago, and will come at the expense of producers like members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries that have for years dominated the industry.
In its most recent analysis, which takes a five-year view of the oil market, the IEA said U.S. production is rising much faster than previously forecast as a result of sustained high prices and more efficient operations.
The latest forecast marks a shift in the IEA's previous thinking, which saw supply growth split between OPEC and non-OPEC countries in the medium term. The fast U.S. supply growth has diminished U.S. demand for oil from OPEC countries like Nigeria, and in the long term, growing U.S. exports of oil and natural gas could further weaken OPEC, says Amy Myers Jaffe, who studies energy and the oil industry at the University of California at Davis but didn't know the contents of the IEA report.
The IEA, which represents the interests of large, energy-consuming countries, last year forecast that the U.S. could become the world's biggest oil producer by 2020, overtaking OPEC giant Saudi Arabia, though possibly only temporarily.
The surprise upswing in North American production in recent years is the result of faster-than-expected development of resources locked in shale and other tight rock formations in the country, and has changed expectations of future supply and demand world-wide.
According to the IEA, average North American production is expected to grow by 3.9 million barrels a day between 2012 and 2018, accounting for more than half of the increase in non-OPEC production for the period.
Meanwhile, the producers that have historically dominated the oil market face a difficult period as demand for OPEC's oil is expected to slip in the coming years.
As of this year, the IEA expects demand for OPEC oil to fall below 30 million barrels a day--the organization's self-imposed production ceiling. IEA expects that trend to endure until 2018.
The ongoing dynamic is "a recipe for crashing prices unless OPEC countries can coordinate in restricting their production in a way they haven't in a long time," said Michael Levi, who studies the effects of growth in U.S. energy production for the U.S.-based Council on Foreign Relations but didn't know the contents of the IEA report.
The IEA also said instability in North and Sub-Saharan Africa will take a toll on production capacity growth in some OPEC states.
According to the IEA's projections, average OPEC production capacity will rise by 1.75 million barrels a day between 2012 and 2018 to reach 36.75 million barrels a day by the end of the period. The previous estimate pegged OPEC production capacity between 2011 and 2017 to grow 3.34 million barrels a day to 37.54 million barrels a day in 2017.
These changes coupled with the ongoing rise in Asian demand will have a profound impact on the market over the next five years, the IEA said.
"There is hardly any aspect of the global oil supply chain that will not undergo some measure of transformation over the next five years, with significant consequences for the global economy and oil security," the IEA said.

美國頁岩油中文文章

下面文章說, 美國的頁岩油出產不夠來填補中東國家減少的原油出產, 而中東國自己消耗的原油也愈來愈多 !

所以唔好信有人說, [美國德州頁岩油由地下嘖出來], 全是誇大謊言 !

因為頁岩油須用好大人力物力和清水, 而唔係掘個井就有油嘖出來, 而說呢個說話的人是大家以為是美國通專家 !

silverdoctors.com全文

Just like the U.S. Retirement Market, the dollar is backed by a huge amount of future liabilities ($16.7 trillion and growing), which are again… Energy IOU’s.  There is no way these debts will ever be repaid, because there will not be the available energy supply in the future to do so.  As I mentioned before, the energy situation has already impacted the debt laden global markets — it only gets worse from here on out.
Even though the United States is bragging about its new Shale Oil Bonanza, this will turn out to be a mere blip in the whole scheme of things.  World conventional oil production already peaked and the only thing saving the day is… shale oil.  While shale oil has helped to bridge the gap from the loss of conventional oil supplies, it is doing so on the heels of very high annual decline rates — averaging 40% per year.  This is not sustainable.
Then of course we have the next SHOE TO DROP, and that is the decline of net oil imports.  If we take a look at the next chart we can see this taking place in the Middle East: