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美國股市周一早場大幅下跌，道瓊大跌逾160點。日本干預匯市，壓低日元，美元因而上漲，為股市帶來壓力。
台北時間22:05
道瓊工業平均指數下跌156.97點或1.28%至12074.14。
Nasdaq指數下跌38.69點或1.41%至2698.46。
S&P 500指數下跌17.96點或1.40%至1267.13。
周一稍早，日本政府干預匯市，壓低日元。這是今年以來，日本領袖第三度抑制日元漲勢。日元走強使得日本出口商更難具有競爭力。
該行動使得美元兌全球主要外幣應聲上漲，亦使得以美元計價商品，如原油與黃金，受到壓力。
美元兌日元大漲2.9%。
2011年10月31日 星期一
索羅斯緊盯香港樓市
蘋果日報
特首曾蔭權臨走前才有大動作，最後一份施政報告提出重新建立土地儲備並推出居屋，繼而財爺曾俊華上周警告，慎防香港樓市泡沫，然後金管局公佈負資產數目急升。我哋知有一知名投資者，正密切留意香港地產市道的走向，想從中搵大錢，它就是量子基金的索羅斯。
在香港招兵買馬
索羅斯的對冲基金公司 Soros Fund Management，其香港分支 SFM HK Management的基金經理，在曾蔭權發表施政報告後，近兩星期四出與本港地產發展商和地產代理的部門主管會面，積極收風攞數據，似乎正部署大茶飯。
據我哋了解， SFM基金經理在會面中的提問，既仔細又尖銳，但絕口不提自己的想法和 SMF的投資部署。究竟他們睇好抑或睇淡香港樓市，沒有漏半句口風。
SFM 去年第四季來港，既在香港招兵買馬，今年上半年也陸續從美國調來多名基金經理，如今單是向證監會攞咗資產管理代表牌照的，都有 21人，在香港對冲基金中已是十分龐大的一支隊伍。資產規模與量子基金不相伯仲的 Highbridge，在香港僅僱用 7名持牌人士，活躍香港多年，規模不遜於量子基金和 Highbridge的 Och-Ziff，在香港僱有 31個持牌人士，是人手最多的對冲基金。 SFM香港領軍的是美林自營交易部前董事總經理蔡篤昀，由美國調來香港的海歸戴霽昕和 Schabel Walter Friedrich三人。
今年 81歲的索羅斯，近年投入慈善事業，基金表現不過不失，聲勢不及當年，但 Soros Fund Management管理的旗艦基金量子基金（ Quantum Endowment），資產值接近 260億美元，仍然是全球 10大對冲基金之一。
手持現金追回報
由於收緊規管要求，量子基金為免麻煩，月前宣佈不再接受「街外錢」，今年底前將會把 10億美元資金退回客戶，日後只會管理索羅斯家族的資金。但計計條數，索羅斯自己人的資金都有近 250億美元，規模依然驚人。
量子基金 07年錄得 32%回報， 08年有 8%，勝過大市和不少同業。但去年表現一般，回報只有 2.5%，跑輸標普 500的 13%。今年上半年則跌 6%，回報率同樣比標普 500低逾 10個百分點（標普 500上半年升 7.5%）。它在第二季大手減磅，現金比率增至七成以上。
根據它向美國證監會提交的資料，截至今年 6月底，量子基金持有超過 500隻美股股份，市值 56億美元。佔組合較大比例的（ 1%-5%），主要是科技股和傳媒股，包括 Motorola Solutions、 Seagate、 Time Warner Cable等，也有時裝股 Ralph Lauren。
量子基金目前現金多，要追回報。如果它認為香港樓市已到達一個轉捩點，可以作一次重大的投資部署從中獲利，相信深受樓市和財富效應影響的本地零售和銀行股，都會進入量子基金的 Radar範圍。
中美紮馬害苦核數師
中美近期就人民幣又再火花四濺，令好多問題都變得無偈傾，其中一樣被殃及的池魚，就係民企的核數問題。有核數師同我哋講，擔心兩國爭拗擦槍走火，會連累香港的核數師難再接民企到美國上市的 Jobs。
從去年中，研究機構混水發佈了一系列篤爆民企報告開始，市場便不時詬病這些民企的核數師為何對問題視而不見，監管美國核數師的組織美國上市公司會計監管委員會（ U.S. Public Company Accounting Oversight Board，簡稱 PCAOB）見狀當然要「做嘢」，過去數月來一直試圖安排複檢員進入中國，實地複核當地的核數機構，並就此於 7月時與中國監管機構在北京會談。不過中方對於美國派人來評核其核數師有很大抗拒，雙方存在重大分歧，甚至連下一輪協商的日期也沒有時間表。
PCAOB再出招 中方還拖
若果一直無法達成複檢協議， PCAOB可能被迫對不能複檢的核數機構採取行動，注銷其登記，令其不能再替民企核數，也令內地民企無法到美國上市。目前四大會計師行在內地的核數工作，都是透過其中國分支進行，而這些分支目前並不受 PCAOB的查核。
在談判陷僵局下， PCAOB再出招，要求核數師公開外判核數工作予那些機構的名單。中方亦「還拖」，進一步收緊民企到海外上市的控股安排，同時間又要求四大行提供，給予海外監管機構的詳盡資料。
本地核數師最擔心的是，中美在核數問題上紮行馬，一個不小心擦槍走火，真的吊銷中國所有的核數師在美國的註冊，到時如果一時沒有留意到一國兩制，連一向容許 PCAOB複評的香港也牽連在內，則香港不少二線行便無法接民企到美國上市的生意，很多人會因此無啖好食。
特首曾蔭權臨走前才有大動作，最後一份施政報告提出重新建立土地儲備並推出居屋，繼而財爺曾俊華上周警告，慎防香港樓市泡沫，然後金管局公佈負資產數目急升。我哋知有一知名投資者，正密切留意香港地產市道的走向，想從中搵大錢，它就是量子基金的索羅斯。
在香港招兵買馬
索羅斯的對冲基金公司 Soros Fund Management，其香港分支 SFM HK Management的基金經理，在曾蔭權發表施政報告後，近兩星期四出與本港地產發展商和地產代理的部門主管會面，積極收風攞數據，似乎正部署大茶飯。
據我哋了解， SFM基金經理在會面中的提問，既仔細又尖銳，但絕口不提自己的想法和 SMF的投資部署。究竟他們睇好抑或睇淡香港樓市，沒有漏半句口風。
SFM 去年第四季來港，既在香港招兵買馬，今年上半年也陸續從美國調來多名基金經理，如今單是向證監會攞咗資產管理代表牌照的，都有 21人，在香港對冲基金中已是十分龐大的一支隊伍。資產規模與量子基金不相伯仲的 Highbridge，在香港僅僱用 7名持牌人士，活躍香港多年，規模不遜於量子基金和 Highbridge的 Och-Ziff，在香港僱有 31個持牌人士，是人手最多的對冲基金。 SFM香港領軍的是美林自營交易部前董事總經理蔡篤昀，由美國調來香港的海歸戴霽昕和 Schabel Walter Friedrich三人。
今年 81歲的索羅斯，近年投入慈善事業，基金表現不過不失，聲勢不及當年，但 Soros Fund Management管理的旗艦基金量子基金（ Quantum Endowment），資產值接近 260億美元，仍然是全球 10大對冲基金之一。
手持現金追回報
由於收緊規管要求，量子基金為免麻煩，月前宣佈不再接受「街外錢」，今年底前將會把 10億美元資金退回客戶，日後只會管理索羅斯家族的資金。但計計條數，索羅斯自己人的資金都有近 250億美元，規模依然驚人。
量子基金 07年錄得 32%回報， 08年有 8%，勝過大市和不少同業。但去年表現一般，回報只有 2.5%，跑輸標普 500的 13%。今年上半年則跌 6%，回報率同樣比標普 500低逾 10個百分點（標普 500上半年升 7.5%）。它在第二季大手減磅，現金比率增至七成以上。
根據它向美國證監會提交的資料，截至今年 6月底，量子基金持有超過 500隻美股股份，市值 56億美元。佔組合較大比例的（ 1%-5%），主要是科技股和傳媒股，包括 Motorola Solutions、 Seagate、 Time Warner Cable等，也有時裝股 Ralph Lauren。
量子基金目前現金多，要追回報。如果它認為香港樓市已到達一個轉捩點，可以作一次重大的投資部署從中獲利，相信深受樓市和財富效應影響的本地零售和銀行股，都會進入量子基金的 Radar範圍。
中美紮馬害苦核數師
中美近期就人民幣又再火花四濺，令好多問題都變得無偈傾，其中一樣被殃及的池魚，就係民企的核數問題。有核數師同我哋講，擔心兩國爭拗擦槍走火，會連累香港的核數師難再接民企到美國上市的 Jobs。
從去年中，研究機構混水發佈了一系列篤爆民企報告開始，市場便不時詬病這些民企的核數師為何對問題視而不見，監管美國核數師的組織美國上市公司會計監管委員會（ U.S. Public Company Accounting Oversight Board，簡稱 PCAOB）見狀當然要「做嘢」，過去數月來一直試圖安排複檢員進入中國，實地複核當地的核數機構，並就此於 7月時與中國監管機構在北京會談。不過中方對於美國派人來評核其核數師有很大抗拒，雙方存在重大分歧，甚至連下一輪協商的日期也沒有時間表。
PCAOB再出招 中方還拖
若果一直無法達成複檢協議， PCAOB可能被迫對不能複檢的核數機構採取行動，注銷其登記，令其不能再替民企核數，也令內地民企無法到美國上市。目前四大會計師行在內地的核數工作，都是透過其中國分支進行，而這些分支目前並不受 PCAOB的查核。
在談判陷僵局下， PCAOB再出招，要求核數師公開外判核數工作予那些機構的名單。中方亦「還拖」，進一步收緊民企到海外上市的控股安排，同時間又要求四大行提供，給予海外監管機構的詳盡資料。
本地核數師最擔心的是，中美在核數問題上紮行馬，一個不小心擦槍走火，真的吊銷中國所有的核數師在美國的註冊，到時如果一時沒有留意到一國兩制，連一向容許 PCAOB複評的香港也牽連在內，則香港不少二線行便無法接民企到美國上市的生意，很多人會因此無啖好食。
小行星擦肩地球 200年來最接近
文匯報
地球再次面臨小行星的威脅！美國太空總署(NASA)表示，下周二將有巨型小行星跟地球「擦肩而過」，科學家認為毋需憂慮地球受撞擊，反而應把握這難得的機會，研究這位「過路人」，以幫助了解太陽系的歷史，拆解地球誕生的秘密。
這顆名為「2005 YU55」的小行星，體積相當於一艘航空母艦，正逐漸逼近地球，預料將於地球與月球之間掠過，與地球最近只相距30萬公里，以銀河概念而言就等於一髮之差。小行星被NASA分類為「近地球物體」，是200年來最接近的一次。上一次有如此巨型的小行星接近地球已是1976年，當時未有引起哄動，皆因 NASA看漏了眼。
NASA把握機會研究
NASA計劃以雷達天文望遠鏡追蹤小行星，藉以取得小行星的近照，發掘如小行星形狀、直徑、表面特質等細節。
小行星將於2028年再次接近地球，NASA計劃在未來20年內派人登陸小行星。太空人本月在NASA的水底實驗室進行訓練，研究執行任務期間可能遇到的問題。
■《星期日泰晤士報》
地球再次面臨小行星的威脅！美國太空總署(NASA)表示，下周二將有巨型小行星跟地球「擦肩而過」，科學家認為毋需憂慮地球受撞擊，反而應把握這難得的機會，研究這位「過路人」，以幫助了解太陽系的歷史，拆解地球誕生的秘密。
這顆名為「2005 YU55」的小行星，體積相當於一艘航空母艦，正逐漸逼近地球，預料將於地球與月球之間掠過，與地球最近只相距30萬公里，以銀河概念而言就等於一髮之差。小行星被NASA分類為「近地球物體」，是200年來最接近的一次。上一次有如此巨型的小行星接近地球已是1976年，當時未有引起哄動，皆因 NASA看漏了眼。
NASA把握機會研究
NASA計劃以雷達天文望遠鏡追蹤小行星，藉以取得小行星的近照，發掘如小行星形狀、直徑、表面特質等細節。
小行星將於2028年再次接近地球，NASA計劃在未來20年內派人登陸小行星。太空人本月在NASA的水底實驗室進行訓練，研究執行任務期間可能遇到的問題。
■《星期日泰晤士報》
利比亞近8千古幣被盜 考古史上最大竊案
文匯報
利比亞經歷戰火洗禮，更有盜賊趁火打劫，班加西今年5月發生「考古歷史中最大的盜竊案」，有「班加西寶藏」之稱的大批古代錢幣不翼而飛，懷疑是內鬼所為。這批重要的歷史遺產可追溯至亞歷山大大帝時代，價值難以估量。失竊事件不但是利比亞的損失，對全球考古學而言，亦失去一個探索古代歷史的機會。
失竊的珍貴收藏品有「班加西寶藏」之稱，共有7,700枚金、銀及青銅錢幣，另有50個小型紀念碑，以及銅、玻璃及象牙雕像，還有一大批寶石、珠寶首飾、獎章及金臂章等古物。很多被盜寶物的歷史更可追溯至亞歷山大大帝時期，部分銀幣早於公元前570年鑄成。
放火掩飾 疑監守自盜
據報一批專業竊匪鑿開班加西國家商業銀行地下金庫的混凝土牆，再打開金屬貯藏櫃，收藏這批古物的木箱上火蠟印也被破壞。盜賊「非常識貨」，目標全都是價值高昂的古代寶物，而且行動組織精密，盜竊案發生前銀行被人放火，原本以為是受戰火波及，其後相信是盜賊所為。
倫敦大學國王學院的利比亞考古學家瓦爾達表示，是次行動屬於專業盜竊組織所為，而且盜匪目標明確，似乎有人監守自盜。就在本月，1枚來自迦太基的古希臘錢幣在巴黎拍賣會就以26.8萬英鎊(約335.7萬港元)高價賣出，利比亞這批失竊寶物的天價可想而知。
據班加西大學考古學教授哈達爾指出，當地黃金市場近日出現一批伊斯蘭及希臘金幣。有埃及報章報道，1名農民嘗試從利比亞偷運503枚金幣及一尊3吋高黃金雕像到埃及，懷疑是失竊寶物一部分。
考古學家擔心寶物流出國外，將難以追查和追回。該批失物的描述已被分發至全球海關及警方，聯合國教科文組織正派發失竊藝術品的清單，呼籲拍賣行、商人及收藏家密切注意寶物下落。
■《星期日泰晤士報》
利比亞經歷戰火洗禮，更有盜賊趁火打劫，班加西今年5月發生「考古歷史中最大的盜竊案」，有「班加西寶藏」之稱的大批古代錢幣不翼而飛，懷疑是內鬼所為。這批重要的歷史遺產可追溯至亞歷山大大帝時代，價值難以估量。失竊事件不但是利比亞的損失，對全球考古學而言，亦失去一個探索古代歷史的機會。
失竊的珍貴收藏品有「班加西寶藏」之稱，共有7,700枚金、銀及青銅錢幣，另有50個小型紀念碑，以及銅、玻璃及象牙雕像，還有一大批寶石、珠寶首飾、獎章及金臂章等古物。很多被盜寶物的歷史更可追溯至亞歷山大大帝時期，部分銀幣早於公元前570年鑄成。
放火掩飾 疑監守自盜
據報一批專業竊匪鑿開班加西國家商業銀行地下金庫的混凝土牆，再打開金屬貯藏櫃，收藏這批古物的木箱上火蠟印也被破壞。盜賊「非常識貨」，目標全都是價值高昂的古代寶物，而且行動組織精密，盜竊案發生前銀行被人放火，原本以為是受戰火波及，其後相信是盜賊所為。
倫敦大學國王學院的利比亞考古學家瓦爾達表示，是次行動屬於專業盜竊組織所為，而且盜匪目標明確，似乎有人監守自盜。就在本月，1枚來自迦太基的古希臘錢幣在巴黎拍賣會就以26.8萬英鎊(約335.7萬港元)高價賣出，利比亞這批失竊寶物的天價可想而知。
據班加西大學考古學教授哈達爾指出，當地黃金市場近日出現一批伊斯蘭及希臘金幣。有埃及報章報道，1名農民嘗試從利比亞偷運503枚金幣及一尊3吋高黃金雕像到埃及，懷疑是失竊寶物一部分。
考古學家擔心寶物流出國外，將難以追查和追回。該批失物的描述已被分發至全球海關及警方，聯合國教科文組織正派發失竊藝術品的清單，呼籲拍賣行、商人及收藏家密切注意寶物下落。
■《星期日泰晤士報》
2011年10月30日 星期日
Norway’s Sovereign Wealth Fund Sold All U.S. Mortgage Bonds
www.bloomberg.com
Norway’s $570 billion sovereign wealth fund sold all its holdings in U.S. mortgage-backed securities as part of a shift of its fixed-income portfolio.
The fund holds no mortgage bonds issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the U.S.-controlled mortgage financiers, and an “insignificant” amount of private home loan-backed bonds, said Yngve Slyngstad, chief executive officer of Norges Bank Investment Management, today in an interview in Oslo.
“We’ve reduced our holdings of mortgage-backed securities,” he said. “MBS has been taken out of our internal policy benchmark. This means that we don’t have mortgage-backed securities issued by Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae any longer.”
The debt was sold primarily because of the refinancing risk, he said. In the U.S., when a borrower refinances a mortgage it can cut short the maturity of the bond backed by the loan and reduce the expected interest over time, so-called prepayment risk. The fund held 36 billion kroner ($6.6 billion) in bonds from Fannie Mae at the end of the second quarter and 11.5 billion kroner from Freddie Mac at the start of the year.
The change doesn’t include European covered bonds, Slyngstad said.
The fund’s bond holdings, which totaled $216 billion at the end of the third quarter, returned 3.7 percent in the third quarter, helped by gains in German and U.S. government bonds, the fund said today. The fund’s securitized debt, which was 18 percent of the portfolio, gained 0.3 percent as measured in international currencies.
Pimco Positive
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgage bonds fell earlier this week as the U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency announced changes to guidelines for the government-supported companies’ refinancing program affecting so-called underwater borrowers.
The decline prompted Pacific Investment Management Co., manager of the world’s biggest bond fund, to call for investors to buy the bonds. Pimco boosted mortgage securities to 38 percent of assets in its $242 billion Total Return Fund in September, the most since January, from 32 percent the prior month, according to data on the firm’s website.
The spread Fannie Mae’s 6 percent 30-year mortgage bond and three-year U.S. Treasuries widened three basis points to 189 basis points as of 9:45 a.m. in New York.
Benchmark Changes
The fund announced today it has changed its internal benchmark portfolio, reducing it to 4,000 bonds from 11,500 bonds and keeping primarily corporate and government debt. The fund also weighted its euro government bond holding according to gross domestic product rather than the size of the market, which it had earlier proposed as a way of reducing its holdings in nations with increasing debt.
The investor, which is part of the central bank and gets guidelines from the government, held 55.6 percent in stocks, 44.1 percent in bonds and 0.3 percent in real estate at the end of the quarter. It’s mandated to hold 60 percent in stocks, 35 percent in bonds and 5 percent in real estate, which it first bought this year.
It got its first capital infusion in 1996 and has been taking on more risk as it expands globally, raising its stock portfolio from 40 percent in 2007. It first added stocks in 1998, emerging markets in 2000 and this year real estate to boost returns and safeguard wealth.
Norway, a nation of 4.9 million people, generates money for the fund from taxes on oil and gas, ownership of petroleum fields and dividends from its 67 percent stake in Statoil ASA (STL), the country’s largest energy company. Norway is the world’s second-largest gas exporter and the seventh-biggest oil exporter. The fund invests outside Norway to avoid stoking domestic inflation.
To contact the reporter on this story: Josiane Kremer in Oslo at Jkremer4@bloomberg.net
Norway’s $570 billion sovereign wealth fund sold all its holdings in U.S. mortgage-backed securities as part of a shift of its fixed-income portfolio.
The fund holds no mortgage bonds issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the U.S.-controlled mortgage financiers, and an “insignificant” amount of private home loan-backed bonds, said Yngve Slyngstad, chief executive officer of Norges Bank Investment Management, today in an interview in Oslo.
“We’ve reduced our holdings of mortgage-backed securities,” he said. “MBS has been taken out of our internal policy benchmark. This means that we don’t have mortgage-backed securities issued by Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae any longer.”
The debt was sold primarily because of the refinancing risk, he said. In the U.S., when a borrower refinances a mortgage it can cut short the maturity of the bond backed by the loan and reduce the expected interest over time, so-called prepayment risk. The fund held 36 billion kroner ($6.6 billion) in bonds from Fannie Mae at the end of the second quarter and 11.5 billion kroner from Freddie Mac at the start of the year.
The change doesn’t include European covered bonds, Slyngstad said.
The fund’s bond holdings, which totaled $216 billion at the end of the third quarter, returned 3.7 percent in the third quarter, helped by gains in German and U.S. government bonds, the fund said today. The fund’s securitized debt, which was 18 percent of the portfolio, gained 0.3 percent as measured in international currencies.
Pimco Positive
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgage bonds fell earlier this week as the U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency announced changes to guidelines for the government-supported companies’ refinancing program affecting so-called underwater borrowers.
The decline prompted Pacific Investment Management Co., manager of the world’s biggest bond fund, to call for investors to buy the bonds. Pimco boosted mortgage securities to 38 percent of assets in its $242 billion Total Return Fund in September, the most since January, from 32 percent the prior month, according to data on the firm’s website.
The spread Fannie Mae’s 6 percent 30-year mortgage bond and three-year U.S. Treasuries widened three basis points to 189 basis points as of 9:45 a.m. in New York.
Benchmark Changes
The fund announced today it has changed its internal benchmark portfolio, reducing it to 4,000 bonds from 11,500 bonds and keeping primarily corporate and government debt. The fund also weighted its euro government bond holding according to gross domestic product rather than the size of the market, which it had earlier proposed as a way of reducing its holdings in nations with increasing debt.
The investor, which is part of the central bank and gets guidelines from the government, held 55.6 percent in stocks, 44.1 percent in bonds and 0.3 percent in real estate at the end of the quarter. It’s mandated to hold 60 percent in stocks, 35 percent in bonds and 5 percent in real estate, which it first bought this year.
It got its first capital infusion in 1996 and has been taking on more risk as it expands globally, raising its stock portfolio from 40 percent in 2007. It first added stocks in 1998, emerging markets in 2000 and this year real estate to boost returns and safeguard wealth.
Norway, a nation of 4.9 million people, generates money for the fund from taxes on oil and gas, ownership of petroleum fields and dividends from its 67 percent stake in Statoil ASA (STL), the country’s largest energy company. Norway is the world’s second-largest gas exporter and the seventh-biggest oil exporter. The fund invests outside Norway to avoid stoking domestic inflation.
To contact the reporter on this story: Josiane Kremer in Oslo at Jkremer4@bloomberg.net
收藏幣炒到癲曬
唔係中國人的專利, 就連美國人都癲一份 !
silverdoctors.blogspot.com
Price: $299.95
Product will be available for shipping 11/10/2011
Add to Cart
To commemorate the 25th Anniversary of the American Eagle Silver Coin Program, the United States Mint is proud to present this unique limited-edition set of five one-ounce American Eagle Silver Coins. This special American Eagle Silver Five-Coin Set is an exquisite collection that captures the essence and beauty of these cherished coins – in stunning proof, reverse proof, uncirculated and bullion qualities minted by the Department of the Treasury, United States Mint facilities at West Point, San Francisco and Philadelphia. The set contains one each of the following 2011 dated coins:
* American Eagle Silver Uncirculated Coin – mint mark: “W” (West Point)
* American Eagle Silver Proof Coin – mint mark: “W” (West Point)
* American Eagle Silver Reverse Proof Coin – mint mark: “P” (Philadelphia)
* American Eagle Silver Bullion Coin – no mint mark
* American Eagle Silver Uncirculated Coin – mint mark: “S” (San Francisco)
All five coins are encapsulated and packaged in a single custom-designed, highly polished, lacquered hardwood presentation case and accompanied by a Certificate of Authenticity.
2011 American Eagle 25th Anniversary Silver Coin Set – Product Limit: 100,000
12 comments:
Anonymous said...
Yep, Mint shop has crashed and APMEX is sold out already.
October 27, 2011 12:26 PM
Anonymous said...
I got mine! I was on the site just before 12, then hit refresh at 12 and ordered them. I don't remember this big of a frenzy at a US Mint release before. They're selling on eBay for over $400 a set as of a few minutes ago...
October 27, 2011 12:47 PM
Anonymous said...
http://www.ebay.com/itm/2011-AMERICAN-EAGLE-25TH-ANNIVERSARY-SILVER-COIN-SET-A25-/120797478337?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item1c20173dc1
This one is going for $1625?!?!? People are crazy!
October 27, 2011 12:52 PM
Anonymous said...
The $1625 is not all that crazy. That price is for 5 sets of 5 coins each. That's 25 coins @ $65 each. High priced, yes; but not crazy considering the demand.
October 27, 2011 1:21 PM
Anonymous said...
Eh. Rather buy bullion.
October 27, 2011 1:25 PM
Anonymous said...
Nah, you should buy these limited sets. I buy British Silver coins that are limited to a run of up to 250,000, sometimes less are minted, and while silver was smashed down to $26 those british coins were valued at $70-$180 a piece.
October 27, 2011 1:45 PM
Anonymous said...
@Anonymous RE: $1625 - you are right - I read that as 1 set not 5 - DUH. Now, 1 set @$1625 would be a jaw-dropper, no? :-D
@Anonymous RE: bullion - some stackers are also collectors, so allow us some enjoyment. I plan to sell my extra sets for a premium and by some bullion with the extra fiat!
October 27, 2011 1:49 PM
Anonymous said...
buy the 5 sets. sell to a silver dealer and get phyz for the profit... pay the card with cost $.
you should be able to get 5-10 oz pf phyz from the profit of flipping 5 sets
October 27, 2011 4:28 PM
Anonymous said...
$300 for 5 eagles??? What a rip off!!!
October 27, 2011 4:47 PM
Anonymous said...
"$300 for 5 eagles??? What a rip off!!! "
and yet they still manage to sell out!!! and then sell for a premium over even that in the aftermarket---you probably should have grabbed some---instant fiat gain.
October 27, 2011 5:02 PM
Anonymous said...
The 2006 Reverse Proof Silver Eagle sells for over $200 easy and they made 250,000 of those. This set is limited to $100,000. So I am guessing that just the Reverse Proof coin will be selling for over $300 in the not too distant future.
October 27, 2011 5:24 PM
Teg HardinAlvin said...
APMEX is already saying that they will buy them for $425.00. 5 1/2 hours and the set already appreciated $125.00. that can get you 11 or 12 Ounces right off the bat, but I'm guessing the set will go much higher since it is such a small run.
October 27, 2011 5:28 PM
silverdoctors.blogspot.com
Price: $299.95
Product will be available for shipping 11/10/2011
Add to Cart
To commemorate the 25th Anniversary of the American Eagle Silver Coin Program, the United States Mint is proud to present this unique limited-edition set of five one-ounce American Eagle Silver Coins. This special American Eagle Silver Five-Coin Set is an exquisite collection that captures the essence and beauty of these cherished coins – in stunning proof, reverse proof, uncirculated and bullion qualities minted by the Department of the Treasury, United States Mint facilities at West Point, San Francisco and Philadelphia. The set contains one each of the following 2011 dated coins:
* American Eagle Silver Uncirculated Coin – mint mark: “W” (West Point)
* American Eagle Silver Proof Coin – mint mark: “W” (West Point)
* American Eagle Silver Reverse Proof Coin – mint mark: “P” (Philadelphia)
* American Eagle Silver Bullion Coin – no mint mark
* American Eagle Silver Uncirculated Coin – mint mark: “S” (San Francisco)
All five coins are encapsulated and packaged in a single custom-designed, highly polished, lacquered hardwood presentation case and accompanied by a Certificate of Authenticity.
2011 American Eagle 25th Anniversary Silver Coin Set – Product Limit: 100,000
12 comments:
Anonymous said...
Yep, Mint shop has crashed and APMEX is sold out already.
October 27, 2011 12:26 PM
Anonymous said...
I got mine! I was on the site just before 12, then hit refresh at 12 and ordered them. I don't remember this big of a frenzy at a US Mint release before. They're selling on eBay for over $400 a set as of a few minutes ago...
October 27, 2011 12:47 PM
Anonymous said...
http://www.ebay.com/itm/2011-AMERICAN-EAGLE-25TH-ANNIVERSARY-SILVER-COIN-SET-A25-/120797478337?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item1c20173dc1
This one is going for $1625?!?!? People are crazy!
October 27, 2011 12:52 PM
Anonymous said...
The $1625 is not all that crazy. That price is for 5 sets of 5 coins each. That's 25 coins @ $65 each. High priced, yes; but not crazy considering the demand.
October 27, 2011 1:21 PM
Anonymous said...
Eh. Rather buy bullion.
October 27, 2011 1:25 PM
Anonymous said...
Nah, you should buy these limited sets. I buy British Silver coins that are limited to a run of up to 250,000, sometimes less are minted, and while silver was smashed down to $26 those british coins were valued at $70-$180 a piece.
October 27, 2011 1:45 PM
Anonymous said...
@Anonymous RE: $1625 - you are right - I read that as 1 set not 5 - DUH. Now, 1 set @$1625 would be a jaw-dropper, no? :-D
@Anonymous RE: bullion - some stackers are also collectors, so allow us some enjoyment. I plan to sell my extra sets for a premium and by some bullion with the extra fiat!
October 27, 2011 1:49 PM
Anonymous said...
buy the 5 sets. sell to a silver dealer and get phyz for the profit... pay the card with cost $.
you should be able to get 5-10 oz pf phyz from the profit of flipping 5 sets
October 27, 2011 4:28 PM
Anonymous said...
$300 for 5 eagles??? What a rip off!!!
October 27, 2011 4:47 PM
Anonymous said...
"$300 for 5 eagles??? What a rip off!!! "
and yet they still manage to sell out!!! and then sell for a premium over even that in the aftermarket---you probably should have grabbed some---instant fiat gain.
October 27, 2011 5:02 PM
Anonymous said...
The 2006 Reverse Proof Silver Eagle sells for over $200 easy and they made 250,000 of those. This set is limited to $100,000. So I am guessing that just the Reverse Proof coin will be selling for over $300 in the not too distant future.
October 27, 2011 5:24 PM
Teg HardinAlvin said...
APMEX is already saying that they will buy them for $425.00. 5 1/2 hours and the set already appreciated $125.00. that can get you 11 or 12 Ounces right off the bat, but I'm guessing the set will go much higher since it is such a small run.
October 27, 2011 5:28 PM
2011年10月28日 星期五
2011年10月27日 星期四
100%抵押防「衍商」爆煲
在動盪市場中, 少炒賣才是明智行為 !
文匯報
香港文匯報訊 (記者 周紹基) 港府進一步加強對衍生工具的監管，防範風險。證監會要求合成交易所買賣基金(Synthetic ETF)提供最少100%抵押品的新規定，下周一正式實施。市場人士表示，新規定實施後，部分合成ETF的溢價會上升，以平衡成本；對投資者而言，好處是 有更多保障，壞處則是要更高價才能買入ETF。據悉，證監會下一步將會要求輪證發行商在發行衍生工具時，同樣也要有抵押品。
文匯報
香港文匯報訊 (記者 周紹基) 港府進一步加強對衍生工具的監管，防範風險。證監會要求合成交易所買賣基金(Synthetic ETF)提供最少100%抵押品的新規定，下周一正式實施。市場人士表示，新規定實施後，部分合成ETF的溢價會上升，以平衡成本；對投資者而言，好處是 有更多保障，壞處則是要更高價才能買入ETF。據悉，證監會下一步將會要求輪證發行商在發行衍生工具時，同樣也要有抵押品。
對於證監會要求合成ETF提供最少100%的抵押品，道富環球資深董事總經理Jim Ross認為監管合適，有利投資者更了解基金，相信本港的ETF成交量未來持續上升。他又表示，近期市況波動，令ETF的成交量增加，但認為不會大幅增加 人民幣計價的ETF，因為人民幣在港的流通量不高，回報又要以人民幣匯價計算。
合成ETF審批工作將重啟
據了解，在全面提升抵押品水平後，證監會認為已加強了ETF的投資者保障，預期於短期內會重啟暫停了15個月的合成ETF審批工作。
投資者學會主席譚紹興指出，市場上的ETF分歐式及美式，美式的ETF是需要買實貨股票，運作就如 盈富基金(2800)，但由於操作及對沖成本高，故現時市場普遍流行歐式ETF，如A50(2823)、標普印度(3015)、新華富時中國 25(3007)及領先印度(2810)等。
海嘯涉雷曼窩輪變廢紙
以A50為例，投資者買入A50 ETF單位，基金公司就要買入A50的相關衍生工具，即基金組合內股票的相關窩輪，或股票期權、期指等，由於發行有關窩輪的發行商，有本身的信貸風險，如 果像當年雷曼兄弟般倒閉的話，A50基金將遭受沉重打擊，手上資產有機會變「廢紙」。故此，在08年金融海嘯後，證監會要求基金要採用多個發行商所發行的 窩輪，分散風險，至今更決定要輪商有100%的抵押品。
譚紹興指出，抵押品不外乎增持現金，或直接在新加坡買入A50的指數期貨、期權等，由於期權、期貨有交易對手，比較安全，但這些增資的動作，無可避免會增加合成ETF的經營成本，「羊毛出自羊身上」，合成ETF的溢價將會上升，投資者要給予更高價才能買入ETF。
窩輪牛熊證料跟隨實施
他又認為，一旦新規定落實，下一步將會要求窩輪及牛熊證發行商在發行衍生工具時，也要提供100%的抵押品，尤其是現時在輪證場合活躍的發行商，正是飽受歐債危機困擾的歐資大行，故他贊成證監會的新措施，因為此舉有助保障投資者。
他預計，證監會重批合成ETF的工作已進入最後階段，短期內仍可望有新一批合成ETF上市，當中可能包括追蹤外匯表現的ETF新產品。
2011年10月26日 星期三
The US Is Fast Becoming a Third World Police State
唔好去美國 !
www.dollarvigilante.com
As a P.T. (often referred to as perpetual traveller, permanent tourist or prior taxpayer), I have travelled to nearly 100 countries. During those travels there has always been one defining moment, upon entry into a country, which shows that the country is what is generally thought of as a "third world country".
It is the moment when, upon arrival, you are charged a fee to enter the country. The reason generally being that the government of the country has so destroyed the economy and/or they have so little understanding of what creates wealth that they think that the way to make their country prosperous is to charge a fee upon entry rather than allowing people to enter freely and transact, trade and spend their money in the economy. Either that or the government is so desperate for money that it uses this as a significant source of revenue.
They have this in Cambodia, Indonesia, Bolivia and numerous other similar countries. And now, they have it in the US.
The US has long-used "visa application fees" to bilk money from people in countries like Thailand as a way to raise money but now the US has announced that they are going to charge a $5.50 fee to Canadians upon entering the US.
The fee is ludicrous and counterproductive for many reasons. Not least of which is making it five dollars and fifty cents, ensuring that payment of the transaction will take twice as long as normal to make the extra change. Canadians who are one of the only large groups of people still bringing some economic activity into the US will both be turned off by having to pay to enter the US but also by the extra long lines to enter as they make change for this fee.
Not to mention the hilarity of calling it an "inspection fee". Does this mean that if we would not like to be inspected then we don't have to pay?
CHECKPOINTS POPPING UP EVERYWHERE IN THE US
Checkpoints have recently gone up in Flint, Michigan and TSA VIPR (Visible Intermodal Prevention and Response) teams have spread our across Tennessee to stop drivers and "check their documents".
As well, at the recent Libertopia conference I attended in San Diego I met three young freedom-lovers who told me that on their drive from Phoenix to San Diego they encountered three different checkpoints.
HARD TO GET IN - EVEN HARDER TO GET OUT
I have just returned from the US and, as usual, I had to make it through a plethora of government people to get out.
Luckily, I didn't try to leave via one of the airports, like Boston Logan where the TSA has begun to conduct "chat-downs" where TSA goons will slime their way through crowds in the airport and chat with you! Should you refuse to chat with them you will be taken away for extra-screening!
However, I did go for my standard TSA patdown and, as is becoming more and more common, when you walk down the gangplank to the airplane there are a number of other government people hiding around the corner who stop you and ask if you are taking more than $10,000 with you. I snapped a photo of them on my way down.
As I walked down the runway, one of the men with guns told me, "go to the third man down, he can take care of you there." Oh, is that what they are doing, taking care of us? It doesn't feel that way.
CHRONIC NERVOUS SYSTEM DISORDER INJECTIONS ALSO NOW AVAILABLE
Things in the US just get more and more bizarre.
As though all the government harassing isn't enough, as I was about to leave the San Diego airport I spotted this "H1N1 vaccination station".
H1N1 (remember the Swine Flu hoax?) has been shown to be nearly harmless yet still to this day, in the USA, there are places offering to give you H1N1 vaccinations. Those vaccinations, by the way, have been proven to cause chronic nervous system disorders. I, tragically, had this hit very close to home last year when my mother, unbeknownst to me, got talked into taking a Swine Flu vaccine shot. A few days later and she couldn't walk anymore. She still, to this day, cannot walk.
本人老公的同鄉都在香港打咗流感針, 她說病咗大半年差些死咗, 依家行動不便 ! 好彩本人認為流感會變種打來都無用, 所以無去打 !
THE POLICE STATE CONTINUES
The photos coming out of the US continue to look like something you'd see in a country like North Korea or in the old Soviet Bloc.
This photo, from a small gathering of Occupy Wall Street protesters in Phoenix, shows that not only the police outnumbered the protesters but showed the level of intimidation and force used against just a few people sitting in a park. Their crime? They were there after "curfew". I've been searching my copy of the US Constitution for any reference to curfew but have yet to find anything.
MY DAYS VISITING THE US ARE NUMBERED
I have already stated that I will never bring my family to the US until I see major changes and the TSA stop their radiation baths and groping. However, it is now getting very close to the point where I will stop going altogether.
For anyone who has their eyes open and are paying attention, the writing is on the wall as to what is going to happen in the US. All it will take is another 9/11 event or for the US Government to default on its debts or for the dollar to enter hyperinflation and the US will be locked down like a prison.
In many ways, it already is.
For those who live in the US, it is imperative to begin making moves now to protect yourself. Action items like attaining a foreign passport, moving your assets outside of the country and owning precious metals are just some of the things that all rational people in the US should be doing now.
睇怕美國人想帶資產出國會愈來愈難 !
www.dollarvigilante.com
As a P.T. (often referred to as perpetual traveller, permanent tourist or prior taxpayer), I have travelled to nearly 100 countries. During those travels there has always been one defining moment, upon entry into a country, which shows that the country is what is generally thought of as a "third world country".
It is the moment when, upon arrival, you are charged a fee to enter the country. The reason generally being that the government of the country has so destroyed the economy and/or they have so little understanding of what creates wealth that they think that the way to make their country prosperous is to charge a fee upon entry rather than allowing people to enter freely and transact, trade and spend their money in the economy. Either that or the government is so desperate for money that it uses this as a significant source of revenue.
They have this in Cambodia, Indonesia, Bolivia and numerous other similar countries. And now, they have it in the US.
The US has long-used "visa application fees" to bilk money from people in countries like Thailand as a way to raise money but now the US has announced that they are going to charge a $5.50 fee to Canadians upon entering the US.
The fee is ludicrous and counterproductive for many reasons. Not least of which is making it five dollars and fifty cents, ensuring that payment of the transaction will take twice as long as normal to make the extra change. Canadians who are one of the only large groups of people still bringing some economic activity into the US will both be turned off by having to pay to enter the US but also by the extra long lines to enter as they make change for this fee.
Not to mention the hilarity of calling it an "inspection fee". Does this mean that if we would not like to be inspected then we don't have to pay?
CHECKPOINTS POPPING UP EVERYWHERE IN THE US
Checkpoints have recently gone up in Flint, Michigan and TSA VIPR (Visible Intermodal Prevention and Response) teams have spread our across Tennessee to stop drivers and "check their documents".
As well, at the recent Libertopia conference I attended in San Diego I met three young freedom-lovers who told me that on their drive from Phoenix to San Diego they encountered three different checkpoints.
HARD TO GET IN - EVEN HARDER TO GET OUT
I have just returned from the US and, as usual, I had to make it through a plethora of government people to get out.
Luckily, I didn't try to leave via one of the airports, like Boston Logan where the TSA has begun to conduct "chat-downs" where TSA goons will slime their way through crowds in the airport and chat with you! Should you refuse to chat with them you will be taken away for extra-screening!
However, I did go for my standard TSA patdown and, as is becoming more and more common, when you walk down the gangplank to the airplane there are a number of other government people hiding around the corner who stop you and ask if you are taking more than $10,000 with you. I snapped a photo of them on my way down.
As I walked down the runway, one of the men with guns told me, "go to the third man down, he can take care of you there." Oh, is that what they are doing, taking care of us? It doesn't feel that way.
CHRONIC NERVOUS SYSTEM DISORDER INJECTIONS ALSO NOW AVAILABLE
Things in the US just get more and more bizarre.
As though all the government harassing isn't enough, as I was about to leave the San Diego airport I spotted this "H1N1 vaccination station".
H1N1 (remember the Swine Flu hoax?) has been shown to be nearly harmless yet still to this day, in the USA, there are places offering to give you H1N1 vaccinations. Those vaccinations, by the way, have been proven to cause chronic nervous system disorders. I, tragically, had this hit very close to home last year when my mother, unbeknownst to me, got talked into taking a Swine Flu vaccine shot. A few days later and she couldn't walk anymore. She still, to this day, cannot walk.
本人老公的同鄉都在香港打咗流感針, 她說病咗大半年差些死咗, 依家行動不便 ! 好彩本人認為流感會變種打來都無用, 所以無去打 !
THE POLICE STATE CONTINUES
The photos coming out of the US continue to look like something you'd see in a country like North Korea or in the old Soviet Bloc.
This photo, from a small gathering of Occupy Wall Street protesters in Phoenix, shows that not only the police outnumbered the protesters but showed the level of intimidation and force used against just a few people sitting in a park. Their crime? They were there after "curfew". I've been searching my copy of the US Constitution for any reference to curfew but have yet to find anything.
MY DAYS VISITING THE US ARE NUMBERED
I have already stated that I will never bring my family to the US until I see major changes and the TSA stop their radiation baths and groping. However, it is now getting very close to the point where I will stop going altogether.
For anyone who has their eyes open and are paying attention, the writing is on the wall as to what is going to happen in the US. All it will take is another 9/11 event or for the US Government to default on its debts or for the dollar to enter hyperinflation and the US will be locked down like a prison.
In many ways, it already is.
For those who live in the US, it is imperative to begin making moves now to protect yourself. Action items like attaining a foreign passport, moving your assets outside of the country and owning precious metals are just some of the things that all rational people in the US should be doing now.
睇怕美國人想帶資產出國會愈來愈難 !
2011年10月24日 星期一
Fukushima: a Radioactive Graveyard in the Pacific Ocean?
goldsilver.com
No one wants to think about the massive aqueous deposition of radioactive materials into the Pacific Ocean, that much is now clear.
By September estimates of released contamination had risen to over 3,500 terabecquerels of cesium-137 released into the sea directly from the plant between March 11 and the end of May. Another 10,000 terabecquerels of cesium fell into the ocean after escaping from the reactors in the form of steam.
Initially reports had quieted concerns by stating that the materials would be diluted so vastly that the radioactivity would not be able to accumulate, and would not affect the environment. The experts claimed they would track the deposition and floating radioactive debris field making its way on a trans-Pacific trip to the United States.
Apparently, the experts in Japan didn't get the message. The Japanese regularly tested the seawater only for 'popular' Iodine and Cesium isotopes instead of all known fission-produced radioactive materials, for the first 3 months after the disaster. By March 31st, radioactive contamination concentration was 4,385 times the legal limit, up from 3,355 times on Tuesday, according to Kyodo.
In response, the government had pledged to increase radiation monitoring on land and by sea and to consider increasing the evacuation zone — however time has shown little action would follow these vows.
Experts Don't Fear A Radiation Graveyard
Water was constantly required for the workers to be able to get any cooling into Reactors 1-4, when water went in, steam came out. The ocean quickly became the radiation dumping ground, as untold tonnes of contaminated water has been confirmed to have directly flowed into the ocean, and TEPCO continually assured Japanese citizens that the majority of dispersal would occur over the Pacific.
TEPCO intentionally dumped radioactive materials into the ocean, as they had no additional room for storage, the levels showed no signs of decreasing, and all desalination hopes were falling woefully short. It would also be found that many leaks around, and inside of the reactors were also finding their way into the Pacific, but the public was told that there would not be any risk to them, or the living creatures in the sea.
After 7 months however, impact can be found all over the island nation, and spreading throughout the ocean, despite the expectations it would merely be diluted exponentially.
In September, scientists from the government's Meteorological Research Institute and the Central Research Institute of the Electric Power Industry announced their findings at a meeting of the Geochemical Society of Japan, adding that some of the cesium will also flow into the Indian Ocean and, eventually, reach the Atlantic.
Floating Radioactive Debris Reaching Hawaii Sooner Than Expected
The researchers believed that the cesium had initially dispersed into the Pacific from the coast of Fukushima Prefecture but would be taken to the southwest by the prevailing currents at a depth of around 1,300 feet.
Researchers thought it would take years to reach the islands. But now, according to a University of Hawaii researchers, the debris will arrive sooner than expected.
....Since the March 11th earthquake and tsunami, researchers have been predicting it would take about two years for the debris from Japan to hit Hawaii's west-facing beaches.
“We have a rough estimate of 5 to 20 million tons of debris coming from Japan,” said UH computer programming researcher Jan Hafner.
...Their path back to Russia crossed exactly across the projected field of the debris. Soon after passing the Midway Islands on Sept. 22, they hit the edge of the tsunami debris. “They saw some pieces of furniture, some appliances, anything that can float, and they picked up a fishing boat,” said Hafner. It was a 20-foot fishing boat with the word "Fukushima" on it. “That's actually our first confirmed report of tsunami debris,” said Hafner... Source: kitv.com
The Public Concern Was Never Really An 'Official' concern
In the first few days after the March 11 earthquake and tsunami that damaged the Fukushima Daiichi power plant, government authorities and the company were criticized for not providing information in a timely fashion. A Kyodo News survey released Sunday found that 58% of respondents did not approve of the government's handling of the crisis at the nuclear plant.
More than two weeks later, updates provided via news conferences, press releases, data charts and Twitter feeds have become very frequent and very technical. To a lay person, the onslaught of numbers and unfamiliar terms can feel indecipherable.
"The question is, what is a reasonable interval to give people information?" said Dr. Robert Peter Gale, an American physician and expert on radiation who consulted on the 1986 nuclear disaster in Chernobyl and is now advising Japan's government. "Instead of just releasing each data point you get, sometimes it's better to base things on an average of readings over a period of time."
Source: LA Times
This ruse would only work, if the officials could hold off on monitoring and tracking the deposition as long as possible, until the plume had finally moved away from the coastline.
TEPCO had intentionally dumped over 11 tons of water in the first few weeks, all of which contained high concentrations of radioactive materials. There would be further reports that would be difficult to quantify, including unknown amount of contaminated water leaked into the ocean from a damaged reservoir, and a plethora of uncharted and un-monitored leaks from the reactors.
After dealing with the spring, the tsunami season arrived and even more contamination entered the sea through fallout from the air, and through precipitation runoff.
By March 26th, the news broke that levels near the reactor were 1,250 times the legal limits, as the levels of I-131 reported just a few hundred meters offshore boomed to ten times the already increased levels in a matter of days. Tepco also reported levels of caesium-137 - which has a longer half life of about 30 years - almost 80 times the legal maximum.
Findings throughout the summer challenged experts and officials however, as radiation levels found contamination in some parts had risen over 3,000 times the normal levels.
"This is a relatively high level," nuclear safety agency official Hidehiko Nishiyama said in a televised news conference.
Drinking 500ml of fresh water with the same concentration would expose a person to their annual safe dose, Mr Nishiyama said, but he ruled out an immediate threat to aquatic life and seafood safety.
"Generally speaking, radioactive material released into the sea will spread due to tides, so you need much more for seaweed and sea life to absorb it," Mr Nishiyama said.
Pledges to Monitor and Track Contamination Left Unattended
Japanese officials said they would check the seawater about 20 miles (30km) off the coast for radiation back in March, yet even though finding contamination, resumed testing withing 20 km, and downplayed the effects by stating they expected it to show there is no need to be concerned about any possible effect to fish.
“By the time that current reaches the Central Pacific, there are branches heading more towards Alaska and the South—that gets harder to predict,” said Ken Buesseler, a senior scientist with the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute told Jeff McMahon, a reporter for Forbes.
“But that’s one of the things that several people hope to do by measuring these isotopes even at levels when they’re not harmful. We could actually track those ocean currents and better understand the circulation pattern in the Pacific.”
Japanese Science and Fisheries Agencies Late Decision to Expand Testing On Marine Products to Weekly Testing 20-30 km Around Fukushima Daiichi
The science ministry and the Fisheries Agency will strengthen testing on marine products and widen the survey for seawater for radiation contamination from the damaged Fukushima No.1 nuclear power plant.
The tests on marine products will be conducted once a week, in principle, depending on the size of the fish hauls, in Fukushima, Miyagi and Ibaraki prefectures.
The government eased restrictions on land use outside the 20-kilometer no-entry zone around the plant in September. It will now test waters 20-30 km from the plant for radiation, and eventually survey seawater beyond 280 km from the coast using more accurate instruments, officials said.
Sources:
* ajw.asahi.com, via Nuclear News | What The Physics?
* Forbes.com
* SkyNews
* TEPCO
* IAEA
Lucas Whitefield Hixson is a frequent contributor to Global Research. Global Research Articles by Lucas Whitefield Hixson
No one wants to think about the massive aqueous deposition of radioactive materials into the Pacific Ocean, that much is now clear.
By September estimates of released contamination had risen to over 3,500 terabecquerels of cesium-137 released into the sea directly from the plant between March 11 and the end of May. Another 10,000 terabecquerels of cesium fell into the ocean after escaping from the reactors in the form of steam.
Initially reports had quieted concerns by stating that the materials would be diluted so vastly that the radioactivity would not be able to accumulate, and would not affect the environment. The experts claimed they would track the deposition and floating radioactive debris field making its way on a trans-Pacific trip to the United States.
Apparently, the experts in Japan didn't get the message. The Japanese regularly tested the seawater only for 'popular' Iodine and Cesium isotopes instead of all known fission-produced radioactive materials, for the first 3 months after the disaster. By March 31st, radioactive contamination concentration was 4,385 times the legal limit, up from 3,355 times on Tuesday, according to Kyodo.
In response, the government had pledged to increase radiation monitoring on land and by sea and to consider increasing the evacuation zone — however time has shown little action would follow these vows.
Experts Don't Fear A Radiation Graveyard
Water was constantly required for the workers to be able to get any cooling into Reactors 1-4, when water went in, steam came out. The ocean quickly became the radiation dumping ground, as untold tonnes of contaminated water has been confirmed to have directly flowed into the ocean, and TEPCO continually assured Japanese citizens that the majority of dispersal would occur over the Pacific.
TEPCO intentionally dumped radioactive materials into the ocean, as they had no additional room for storage, the levels showed no signs of decreasing, and all desalination hopes were falling woefully short. It would also be found that many leaks around, and inside of the reactors were also finding their way into the Pacific, but the public was told that there would not be any risk to them, or the living creatures in the sea.
After 7 months however, impact can be found all over the island nation, and spreading throughout the ocean, despite the expectations it would merely be diluted exponentially.
In September, scientists from the government's Meteorological Research Institute and the Central Research Institute of the Electric Power Industry announced their findings at a meeting of the Geochemical Society of Japan, adding that some of the cesium will also flow into the Indian Ocean and, eventually, reach the Atlantic.
Floating Radioactive Debris Reaching Hawaii Sooner Than Expected
The researchers believed that the cesium had initially dispersed into the Pacific from the coast of Fukushima Prefecture but would be taken to the southwest by the prevailing currents at a depth of around 1,300 feet.
Researchers thought it would take years to reach the islands. But now, according to a University of Hawaii researchers, the debris will arrive sooner than expected.
....Since the March 11th earthquake and tsunami, researchers have been predicting it would take about two years for the debris from Japan to hit Hawaii's west-facing beaches.
“We have a rough estimate of 5 to 20 million tons of debris coming from Japan,” said UH computer programming researcher Jan Hafner.
...Their path back to Russia crossed exactly across the projected field of the debris. Soon after passing the Midway Islands on Sept. 22, they hit the edge of the tsunami debris. “They saw some pieces of furniture, some appliances, anything that can float, and they picked up a fishing boat,” said Hafner. It was a 20-foot fishing boat with the word "Fukushima" on it. “That's actually our first confirmed report of tsunami debris,” said Hafner... Source: kitv.com
The Public Concern Was Never Really An 'Official' concern
In the first few days after the March 11 earthquake and tsunami that damaged the Fukushima Daiichi power plant, government authorities and the company were criticized for not providing information in a timely fashion. A Kyodo News survey released Sunday found that 58% of respondents did not approve of the government's handling of the crisis at the nuclear plant.
More than two weeks later, updates provided via news conferences, press releases, data charts and Twitter feeds have become very frequent and very technical. To a lay person, the onslaught of numbers and unfamiliar terms can feel indecipherable.
"The question is, what is a reasonable interval to give people information?" said Dr. Robert Peter Gale, an American physician and expert on radiation who consulted on the 1986 nuclear disaster in Chernobyl and is now advising Japan's government. "Instead of just releasing each data point you get, sometimes it's better to base things on an average of readings over a period of time."
Source: LA Times
This ruse would only work, if the officials could hold off on monitoring and tracking the deposition as long as possible, until the plume had finally moved away from the coastline.
TEPCO had intentionally dumped over 11 tons of water in the first few weeks, all of which contained high concentrations of radioactive materials. There would be further reports that would be difficult to quantify, including unknown amount of contaminated water leaked into the ocean from a damaged reservoir, and a plethora of uncharted and un-monitored leaks from the reactors.
After dealing with the spring, the tsunami season arrived and even more contamination entered the sea through fallout from the air, and through precipitation runoff.
By March 26th, the news broke that levels near the reactor were 1,250 times the legal limits, as the levels of I-131 reported just a few hundred meters offshore boomed to ten times the already increased levels in a matter of days. Tepco also reported levels of caesium-137 - which has a longer half life of about 30 years - almost 80 times the legal maximum.
Findings throughout the summer challenged experts and officials however, as radiation levels found contamination in some parts had risen over 3,000 times the normal levels.
"This is a relatively high level," nuclear safety agency official Hidehiko Nishiyama said in a televised news conference.
Drinking 500ml of fresh water with the same concentration would expose a person to their annual safe dose, Mr Nishiyama said, but he ruled out an immediate threat to aquatic life and seafood safety.
"Generally speaking, radioactive material released into the sea will spread due to tides, so you need much more for seaweed and sea life to absorb it," Mr Nishiyama said.
Pledges to Monitor and Track Contamination Left Unattended
Japanese officials said they would check the seawater about 20 miles (30km) off the coast for radiation back in March, yet even though finding contamination, resumed testing withing 20 km, and downplayed the effects by stating they expected it to show there is no need to be concerned about any possible effect to fish.
“By the time that current reaches the Central Pacific, there are branches heading more towards Alaska and the South—that gets harder to predict,” said Ken Buesseler, a senior scientist with the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute told Jeff McMahon, a reporter for Forbes.
“But that’s one of the things that several people hope to do by measuring these isotopes even at levels when they’re not harmful. We could actually track those ocean currents and better understand the circulation pattern in the Pacific.”
Japanese Science and Fisheries Agencies Late Decision to Expand Testing On Marine Products to Weekly Testing 20-30 km Around Fukushima Daiichi
The science ministry and the Fisheries Agency will strengthen testing on marine products and widen the survey for seawater for radiation contamination from the damaged Fukushima No.1 nuclear power plant.
The tests on marine products will be conducted once a week, in principle, depending on the size of the fish hauls, in Fukushima, Miyagi and Ibaraki prefectures.
The government eased restrictions on land use outside the 20-kilometer no-entry zone around the plant in September. It will now test waters 20-30 km from the plant for radiation, and eventually survey seawater beyond 280 km from the coast using more accurate instruments, officials said.
Sources:
* ajw.asahi.com, via Nuclear News | What The Physics?
* Forbes.com
* SkyNews
* TEPCO
* IAEA
Lucas Whitefield Hixson is a frequent contributor to Global Research. Global Research Articles by Lucas Whitefield Hixson
世紀末全球人口150億 人類瀕滅亡
滅減人口的藉口 ?
文匯報
聯合國人口基金會（Unfpa）本周將公布最新報告，預測全球人口或在本世紀末時倍增，突破150億。該趨勢若得不到遏制，地球資源將供不應求，人類將遭受災難性滅亡。
聯合國原先估計目前全球人口約70億，到2100年將超過100億。新數據遠超預期，令許多專家大為震驚。英國人口控制運動（Population Matters）主席馬丁稱，地球已邁入危險新階段，「地球正面臨人口增長、氣候變化和石油過度開採等，實際上我們的星球已承擔不起70億人口的壓力。」
■《衛報》
文匯報
聯合國人口基金會（Unfpa）本周將公布最新報告，預測全球人口或在本世紀末時倍增，突破150億。該趨勢若得不到遏制，地球資源將供不應求，人類將遭受災難性滅亡。
聯合國原先估計目前全球人口約70億，到2100年將超過100億。新數據遠超預期，令許多專家大為震驚。英國人口控制運動（Population Matters）主席馬丁稱，地球已邁入危險新階段，「地球正面臨人口增長、氣候變化和石油過度開採等，實際上我們的星球已承擔不起70億人口的壓力。」
■《衛報》
2011年10月23日 星期日
破解牛熊證三大陷阱
蘋果日報
大市「 Chok」過林峯，正股難炒，股民齊齊化身賭仔，索性買大細炒牛熊證，連過大海船飛都慳番，又因毋須付印花稅，速食一兩格快閃。牛熊證成交近月佔整體成交比例大幅飆升，上周平均達 18.4%，其中兩日更超過兩成，「賭風」較海嘯後約 12%有過之而無不及。不過，牛熊證先天有強制收回機制，即是到收回價即打靶，更有三大投資陷阱，散戶如果瞇埋眼當賭大細咁買，學政府戒賭宣傳廣告話齋：「等於倒錢落海」，兼夾打靶冇仇報！
玩法似窩輪 無引伸波幅
牛熊證簡單講是毋須按金的期指，為衍生工具的一種，透過槓桿效應，將利潤放大。牛熊證的玩法與窩輪非常相似，買入牛證等於看好後市，看淡後市則選熊證；雖然兩者同樣具備刀仔鋸大樹的功能，但牛熊證不受引伸波幅影響，故不存在因「縮 vol」令 Call輪 Put輪齊跌的屈機現象，故較受散戶歡迎。
觸及收回價 即時打靶
不過，針無兩頭利，牛熊證的強制收回（俗稱打靶）特性，卻令散戶聞風喪膽。倘相關指數或股票觸及收回價，該證便會立即停止買賣。
舉例說，恒指牛證收回價為 16900點，恒指一旦跌穿 16900點，該牛證便會即時死亡，就算大市其後重上 16900點，投資者亦無仇報，最多只可收回少量剩餘價值；剩餘價值按結算價與行使價間的差額，再除以換股比率去釐定。
另一樣與窩輪不同的，就是牛熊證並無時間價值，其價格由內在值及財務費用組成，而牛熊證的溢價亦正反映其財務費用的多寡。簡單而言，散戶可視牛熊證為孖展投資，財務費用相當於發行商向散戶收取的利息，財務費用正正包含相關成本。
陷阱 1：街貨重倉區 易變死亡塚
牛熊證實際上是一場散戶與大戶博弈遊戲。牛熊證的特點是設有強制收回價（俗稱打靶價），而每日公佈牛熊證街貨量，等同將散戶底牌盡現大家眼前，街貨重倉區其實是最多散戶認為不會升穿或跌破的區域，在近日大市缺乏深度之下，大戶容易舞高弄低，令牛熊證打靶獲利，重街貨區遂變成散戶的死亡陷阱。
發行商購期指對冲
再者，當散戶買指數牛熊證，發行商會買入相關數目期貨作對冲。當散戶買入恒指牛證，發行商會買入期指作對冲，一旦牛證觸及收回價打靶，發行商須沽出期指平倉，加劇跌勢，變相助造淡大戶一把，殺落下一個重倉收回價牛證。近期市況中，屢見大戶質穿街貨重貨區，殺盡牛熊證後，才掉頭而行。
以 9月 26日為例，當日牛證重貨區 17000點穩守不失，殊不知午後指數在 1秒內被質落至 16999點後，立即重上 17000點樓上，尾市更迅速 V彈。一秒內失守 17000點，結果 7隻牛證「歸西」，涉及街貨 4.55億份。無獨有偶， 10月 4日恒指當時牛證重倉收回價介乎 16200至 16500點，下午 3時恒指仍處約 16700點水平，一句鐘內淡友發功將恒指質低逾 500點，恒指低見 16170點，將博反彈好友全數趕盡殺絕， 30隻牛證最後 40分鐘被「閃殺」。其後大市迅速見底，短短兩星期，恒指反彈 2500點。
陷阱 2：睇成交揀證 恐隨時中伏
現時市場牛熊證數目超過 1000隻，單是恒指牛熊證已經接近 600隻，同一收回價、換股比率的牛熊證，動輒有數十隻，散戶眼花繚亂，惟有睇成交揀證，結果恐會墮入成交陷阱。
谷大交投後「快閃」
成交多，絕非揀選牛熊證的有利條件。個別發行商忽然將牛熊證成交谷大，然後「快閃」，即日鮮散戶可以走得切，但短炒變長揸的散戶，入貨數天後想沽出時買賣盤欠奉，買賣差價擘開幾格，明明贏錢都可能變了蝕差價，長玩邊有辦法唔輸。
以牛證 65952為例， 10月 10日成交 16億元破晒健力士紀錄，但成交每況愈下，翌日跌至 4000餘萬，上周日均更只有 200萬，收市買賣差價由正常的 0.001元擴闊至 0.002元。再舉另一例子，熊證 67464上周三成交暴增至 11億元，不過隨後兩日已跌至 1200萬及 400萬元，收市買賣差價更足足有 0.003元。滿以為賺一格走，隨時倒輸 2格。
瑞信認股證及牛熊證銷售主管何啟聰解釋，發行人可能同時發行多隻牛熊證，不可能同時兼顧所有牛熊證的流通量，因此便出現同一隻牛熊證成交忽高忽低的現象。投資者買牛熊證前，宜先留意發行人的慣常做法，會否經常擘闊買賣差價。
陷阱 3：莊家開價慢 可無限增發
無論窩輪或牛熊證，皆奉行莊家制，發行商有責任為牛熊證提供買賣價。不過隨住市面上近千隻牛熊證，發行商未必能準時逐一開價。正所謂你急佢唔急，散戶爭分奪秒落盤之際，卻可能碰上發行商嘆慢板，遲遲不肯開價。若交投暢旺街貨多，投資者還可以自行對盤，搵對手接貨。最慘是牛熊證快要打靶，作為市場上唯一買家的發行商不開價或開衰價，投資者只能乾着急。
價格或偏離資產變化
有讀者李先生向本報投訴，指出個別發行商開市後 15分鐘仍未開價，「如果揸住牛仔的話，跌市（發行商）一定跟到足有餘，升市則嘜闊買賣價，嗰頭止蝕放咗，擰轉頭個價就立即升番，真係激到吐血……試過打電話嘈佢，佢就話賣晒貨，叫我自己喺場內對盤。」
成交疏街貨少，怕莊家開價唔理想，就算成交活躍街貨多，投資者一樣要面對街貨越來越多越失控的問題，事關與窩輪一樣，發行商沽清貨後，可申請增發，街貨隨時倍增。高街貨的牛熊證，容易受市場氣氛影響，價格亦會偏離相關資產變化的現象，任由散戶互片，有時甚至出現股市升、牛證跌的怪現象。
牛熊證街貨量 與恒指成反比
牛熊證街貨比例，與恒指存在密切相反關係，是市場按經驗歸納出來的共識。按近日數據， 9月 19至 26日期間，牛證街貨遠超熊證，大市同期勁瀉一成；而在本月 6日熊證街貨量明顯強勢後，恒指至今卻反彈 11%。
于正人：值得留意
由於「相反理論」屢獲應驗，故一直被視為「大市明燈」。雖然理論看似無根無據，但投資者普遍相信是大戶借操控市場獲利。
相反理論的準繩，就連發行商也嘖嘖稱奇。瑞銀股票風險管理產品銷售部董事總經理于正人認為，理論可以參考，他稱投資者倘今年不理會任何資訊，只參考牛熊證街貨量，將資金投放重街貨區的相反方，便已經可以贏錢，「你以為無理由，但事實又發生咗，係值得留意。」
不過，瑞信認股證及牛熊證銷售主管何啟聰則持保留態度，指恒指走勢僅反映市況，理論成立與否純粹個人選擇，「總有投資者會選擇將大市變動歸究重貨區。」
大市「 Chok」過林峯，正股難炒，股民齊齊化身賭仔，索性買大細炒牛熊證，連過大海船飛都慳番，又因毋須付印花稅，速食一兩格快閃。牛熊證成交近月佔整體成交比例大幅飆升，上周平均達 18.4%，其中兩日更超過兩成，「賭風」較海嘯後約 12%有過之而無不及。不過，牛熊證先天有強制收回機制，即是到收回價即打靶，更有三大投資陷阱，散戶如果瞇埋眼當賭大細咁買，學政府戒賭宣傳廣告話齋：「等於倒錢落海」，兼夾打靶冇仇報！
玩法似窩輪 無引伸波幅
牛熊證簡單講是毋須按金的期指，為衍生工具的一種，透過槓桿效應，將利潤放大。牛熊證的玩法與窩輪非常相似，買入牛證等於看好後市，看淡後市則選熊證；雖然兩者同樣具備刀仔鋸大樹的功能，但牛熊證不受引伸波幅影響，故不存在因「縮 vol」令 Call輪 Put輪齊跌的屈機現象，故較受散戶歡迎。
觸及收回價 即時打靶
不過，針無兩頭利，牛熊證的強制收回（俗稱打靶）特性，卻令散戶聞風喪膽。倘相關指數或股票觸及收回價，該證便會立即停止買賣。
舉例說，恒指牛證收回價為 16900點，恒指一旦跌穿 16900點，該牛證便會即時死亡，就算大市其後重上 16900點，投資者亦無仇報，最多只可收回少量剩餘價值；剩餘價值按結算價與行使價間的差額，再除以換股比率去釐定。
另一樣與窩輪不同的，就是牛熊證並無時間價值，其價格由內在值及財務費用組成，而牛熊證的溢價亦正反映其財務費用的多寡。簡單而言，散戶可視牛熊證為孖展投資，財務費用相當於發行商向散戶收取的利息，財務費用正正包含相關成本。
陷阱 1：街貨重倉區 易變死亡塚
牛熊證實際上是一場散戶與大戶博弈遊戲。牛熊證的特點是設有強制收回價（俗稱打靶價），而每日公佈牛熊證街貨量，等同將散戶底牌盡現大家眼前，街貨重倉區其實是最多散戶認為不會升穿或跌破的區域，在近日大市缺乏深度之下，大戶容易舞高弄低，令牛熊證打靶獲利，重街貨區遂變成散戶的死亡陷阱。
發行商購期指對冲
再者，當散戶買指數牛熊證，發行商會買入相關數目期貨作對冲。當散戶買入恒指牛證，發行商會買入期指作對冲，一旦牛證觸及收回價打靶，發行商須沽出期指平倉，加劇跌勢，變相助造淡大戶一把，殺落下一個重倉收回價牛證。近期市況中，屢見大戶質穿街貨重貨區，殺盡牛熊證後，才掉頭而行。
以 9月 26日為例，當日牛證重貨區 17000點穩守不失，殊不知午後指數在 1秒內被質落至 16999點後，立即重上 17000點樓上，尾市更迅速 V彈。一秒內失守 17000點，結果 7隻牛證「歸西」，涉及街貨 4.55億份。無獨有偶， 10月 4日恒指當時牛證重倉收回價介乎 16200至 16500點，下午 3時恒指仍處約 16700點水平，一句鐘內淡友發功將恒指質低逾 500點，恒指低見 16170點，將博反彈好友全數趕盡殺絕， 30隻牛證最後 40分鐘被「閃殺」。其後大市迅速見底，短短兩星期，恒指反彈 2500點。
陷阱 2：睇成交揀證 恐隨時中伏
現時市場牛熊證數目超過 1000隻，單是恒指牛熊證已經接近 600隻，同一收回價、換股比率的牛熊證，動輒有數十隻，散戶眼花繚亂，惟有睇成交揀證，結果恐會墮入成交陷阱。
谷大交投後「快閃」
成交多，絕非揀選牛熊證的有利條件。個別發行商忽然將牛熊證成交谷大，然後「快閃」，即日鮮散戶可以走得切，但短炒變長揸的散戶，入貨數天後想沽出時買賣盤欠奉，買賣差價擘開幾格，明明贏錢都可能變了蝕差價，長玩邊有辦法唔輸。
以牛證 65952為例， 10月 10日成交 16億元破晒健力士紀錄，但成交每況愈下，翌日跌至 4000餘萬，上周日均更只有 200萬，收市買賣差價由正常的 0.001元擴闊至 0.002元。再舉另一例子，熊證 67464上周三成交暴增至 11億元，不過隨後兩日已跌至 1200萬及 400萬元，收市買賣差價更足足有 0.003元。滿以為賺一格走，隨時倒輸 2格。
瑞信認股證及牛熊證銷售主管何啟聰解釋，發行人可能同時發行多隻牛熊證，不可能同時兼顧所有牛熊證的流通量，因此便出現同一隻牛熊證成交忽高忽低的現象。投資者買牛熊證前，宜先留意發行人的慣常做法，會否經常擘闊買賣差價。
陷阱 3：莊家開價慢 可無限增發
無論窩輪或牛熊證，皆奉行莊家制，發行商有責任為牛熊證提供買賣價。不過隨住市面上近千隻牛熊證，發行商未必能準時逐一開價。正所謂你急佢唔急，散戶爭分奪秒落盤之際，卻可能碰上發行商嘆慢板，遲遲不肯開價。若交投暢旺街貨多，投資者還可以自行對盤，搵對手接貨。最慘是牛熊證快要打靶，作為市場上唯一買家的發行商不開價或開衰價，投資者只能乾着急。
價格或偏離資產變化
有讀者李先生向本報投訴，指出個別發行商開市後 15分鐘仍未開價，「如果揸住牛仔的話，跌市（發行商）一定跟到足有餘，升市則嘜闊買賣價，嗰頭止蝕放咗，擰轉頭個價就立即升番，真係激到吐血……試過打電話嘈佢，佢就話賣晒貨，叫我自己喺場內對盤。」
成交疏街貨少，怕莊家開價唔理想，就算成交活躍街貨多，投資者一樣要面對街貨越來越多越失控的問題，事關與窩輪一樣，發行商沽清貨後，可申請增發，街貨隨時倍增。高街貨的牛熊證，容易受市場氣氛影響，價格亦會偏離相關資產變化的現象，任由散戶互片，有時甚至出現股市升、牛證跌的怪現象。
牛熊證街貨量 與恒指成反比
牛熊證街貨比例，與恒指存在密切相反關係，是市場按經驗歸納出來的共識。按近日數據， 9月 19至 26日期間，牛證街貨遠超熊證，大市同期勁瀉一成；而在本月 6日熊證街貨量明顯強勢後，恒指至今卻反彈 11%。
于正人：值得留意
由於「相反理論」屢獲應驗，故一直被視為「大市明燈」。雖然理論看似無根無據，但投資者普遍相信是大戶借操控市場獲利。
相反理論的準繩，就連發行商也嘖嘖稱奇。瑞銀股票風險管理產品銷售部董事總經理于正人認為，理論可以參考，他稱投資者倘今年不理會任何資訊，只參考牛熊證街貨量，將資金投放重街貨區的相反方，便已經可以贏錢，「你以為無理由，但事實又發生咗，係值得留意。」
不過，瑞信認股證及牛熊證銷售主管何啟聰則持保留態度，指恒指走勢僅反映市況，理論成立與否純粹個人選擇，「總有投資者會選擇將大市變動歸究重貨區。」
2011年10月22日 星期六
Sovereign Silver Buying, Middle-East Shortages
kingworldnews.com
On the heels of KWN reporting the Chinese buying massive amounts of gold yesterday, King World News has now interviewed the “London Trader” to get his take on the situation in silver. The source stated, “The price of silver has no reality to the paper market at all, absolutely zero reality there anymore. There is extraordinarily tight supply right now in Asia. When you order silver there is so little available at these prices, that’s the trouble. You can order it all day long, but you are going to have to wait for it.”
The London Trader continues:
“Chances are you are not going to get quantity at this price. If people have physical silver they are not selling it at these levels. Supply/demand is tight and you know there is a big wait involved in getting your silver. If I put in an order for tonnage, I have to find a wholesaler that actually can source it at this price and then there is the significant wait time.
On a side note, there is a man in the United States stating publicly that there is no shortage in silver and to go to his silver group where he can get buyers all the silver they need. That is patently false. This same individual said silver was overvalued at $14. I deal in the physical market every day and I can tell you what he is saying is false.
Much of this misinformation is out there because they do not want to have panicked buying from end users because it would send the price of silver skyrocketing. The end users only use a fraction of silver in their products so it is not an issue of cost, but rather if there is a delay in delivery....
“As soon as we see a delay in shipments to end users they will race each other to stock up. This will send the price of silver through the roof and break the backs of the silver shorts. It has already been made public that a firm in Canada had to wait three months for a 15 million ounce order. It was also made public that much of the silver they received was refined after the initial order was placed. So that is the actual fact, that is how tight the silver market is today and has been for some time.
All of the sudden the game has changed because you have actual investment demand increasing exponentially vs industrial demand, competing against industrial demand to buy. All of these sovereign entities buying silver know it's manipulated. There are shortages in the Middle-East in silver, generally it's an incredibly tight market on the physical side. In Shanghai we are seeing $1.50 premiums on silver and that's every single day consistently.
The tightness in the market is the reason why when the Chinese buy massive tonnage of silver they have a long wait to receive physical delivery. The end users are in line in front of them. So now the silver market is on a razor’s edge because they are trying to make sure the industrial users get their silver, otherwise all hell breaks loose.”
On the heels of KWN reporting the Chinese buying massive amounts of gold yesterday, King World News has now interviewed the “London Trader” to get his take on the situation in silver. The source stated, “The price of silver has no reality to the paper market at all, absolutely zero reality there anymore. There is extraordinarily tight supply right now in Asia. When you order silver there is so little available at these prices, that’s the trouble. You can order it all day long, but you are going to have to wait for it.”
The London Trader continues:
“Chances are you are not going to get quantity at this price. If people have physical silver they are not selling it at these levels. Supply/demand is tight and you know there is a big wait involved in getting your silver. If I put in an order for tonnage, I have to find a wholesaler that actually can source it at this price and then there is the significant wait time.
On a side note, there is a man in the United States stating publicly that there is no shortage in silver and to go to his silver group where he can get buyers all the silver they need. That is patently false. This same individual said silver was overvalued at $14. I deal in the physical market every day and I can tell you what he is saying is false.
Much of this misinformation is out there because they do not want to have panicked buying from end users because it would send the price of silver skyrocketing. The end users only use a fraction of silver in their products so it is not an issue of cost, but rather if there is a delay in delivery....
“As soon as we see a delay in shipments to end users they will race each other to stock up. This will send the price of silver through the roof and break the backs of the silver shorts. It has already been made public that a firm in Canada had to wait three months for a 15 million ounce order. It was also made public that much of the silver they received was refined after the initial order was placed. So that is the actual fact, that is how tight the silver market is today and has been for some time.
All of the sudden the game has changed because you have actual investment demand increasing exponentially vs industrial demand, competing against industrial demand to buy. All of these sovereign entities buying silver know it's manipulated. There are shortages in the Middle-East in silver, generally it's an incredibly tight market on the physical side. In Shanghai we are seeing $1.50 premiums on silver and that's every single day consistently.
The tightness in the market is the reason why when the Chinese buy massive tonnage of silver they have a long wait to receive physical delivery. The end users are in line in front of them. So now the silver market is on a razor’s edge because they are trying to make sure the industrial users get their silver, otherwise all hell breaks loose.”
China Bought Massive Amount of Gold Today
kingworldnews.com
Gold and silver bounced off of the lows today because of massive buying from the Chinese. A trader out of London told King World News, “The price discount in gold is the most welcome thing to the entire Eastern Hemisphere. The Chinese are buying very relentlessly because they know what is going to happen. We had a major, major physical buy order today. The Chinese bought a massive amount of physical today at the lows.”
The London Trader continues:
“They (the Asians) are aware of how tight physical supply is and they buy in London towards the fix because they know there is an 80% chance the commercials will take it down and they will get a better price. The Asians sit there and say, ‘Bring it on because we’ve got some orders to fill.’ They just want out of their dollars.
The commercials are doing some surgical moves at key times during the day. This is an attempt right now to get the tech funds and momentum traders into going short. But guess who’s down there competing to buy along with the physical orders? The commercials, the same ones who kicked off the selling. The commercials want out of their shorts....
“What we are seeing now is this consolidation pattern where the commercials are getting out of their short positions whenever possible. All the while they are squeezing fresh shorts. They take the metals down, make the charts look bearish to bring in fresh shorts and later they squeeze them out of their positions on a rally and pocket the money.
As I said earlier, we had a major physical buy order today. The Chinese bought a massive amount of physical today at the lows and that is why the market turned where it did because of the intensity of Chinese buying.
Having said that, most of the physical orders are sitting under the market now. There are major buy orders that did not get triggered yet and they sit between $1,585 and $1,605. We are talking about massive tonnage.”
Unbelievably this is part of a continued transfer of wealth from the West to the East. While our central planners try to figure out how to keep the broken system functioning, the cost to the West is we keep emptying our vaults of gold and shipping it to the vaults in the East.
Gold and silver bounced off of the lows today because of massive buying from the Chinese. A trader out of London told King World News, “The price discount in gold is the most welcome thing to the entire Eastern Hemisphere. The Chinese are buying very relentlessly because they know what is going to happen. We had a major, major physical buy order today. The Chinese bought a massive amount of physical today at the lows.”
The London Trader continues:
“They (the Asians) are aware of how tight physical supply is and they buy in London towards the fix because they know there is an 80% chance the commercials will take it down and they will get a better price. The Asians sit there and say, ‘Bring it on because we’ve got some orders to fill.’ They just want out of their dollars.
The commercials are doing some surgical moves at key times during the day. This is an attempt right now to get the tech funds and momentum traders into going short. But guess who’s down there competing to buy along with the physical orders? The commercials, the same ones who kicked off the selling. The commercials want out of their shorts....
“What we are seeing now is this consolidation pattern where the commercials are getting out of their short positions whenever possible. All the while they are squeezing fresh shorts. They take the metals down, make the charts look bearish to bring in fresh shorts and later they squeeze them out of their positions on a rally and pocket the money.
As I said earlier, we had a major physical buy order today. The Chinese bought a massive amount of physical today at the lows and that is why the market turned where it did because of the intensity of Chinese buying.
Having said that, most of the physical orders are sitting under the market now. There are major buy orders that did not get triggered yet and they sit between $1,585 and $1,605. We are talking about massive tonnage.”
Unbelievably this is part of a continued transfer of wealth from the West to the East. While our central planners try to figure out how to keep the broken system functioning, the cost to the West is we keep emptying our vaults of gold and shipping it to the vaults in the East.
十年黃金夢已醒
多謝唱淡, 叫人沽金買美債, 佢都傻得好可愛 !
明報財經網
施政報告已過，筆者繼續評述黃金去留。
黃金的需求多年來頗為穩定，世界黃金協會的數據顯示，2001至2010年的需求上下波動範圍只是約3200噸至3800噸。黃金實際用途不多，工業用黃金只佔總需求約10%，黃金的主要角色是作為投資及儲蓄的工具(首飾用金當然不少，但它們同時也是投資，可隨時變賣)。黃金的產量多年來都非常平穩，除了 2008年產量稍低外(約2250噸)，過去10年產量一直維持在約2400至2600噸的水平，變動不大。其實，金礦供應的黃金只佔黃金總供應約 60%，另外40%的供應則來自其他不同途徑如個人投資者、央行及工業等的循環再做黃金(recycle gold)。這些來源靈活性高，對黃金供應的影響舉足輕重。2009和2010年黃金供應量分別為4034和4108噸，但需求只得2493和3812 噸，顯示黃金並不存在供不應求的情。
現時世界各國央行持有大量黃金儲備，但黃金實際用途有限，除了有升值的可能外，不會提供收益。過去約20年，各發達國央行都逐漸減少黃金的儲存量，為黃金的淨供應者。但由於歐洲央行於2008年金融海嘯後近幾年大幅減少賣金，加上各新興國家如印度、韓國等增加購進黃金，2010年為21年來各國央行首次成為黃金的爭購進者，支持金價上升。同時全球推出寬鬆貨幣政策引致資金氾濫，通脹飛升，熱錢追逐商品和其他貴重資產，加上歐債危機惡化，黃金頓成對抗通脹和避險工具的新寵兒，金價近2年突然飛升2倍。但是，現時歐債危機的主因是歐洲多個國家債務負擔太重。黃金價格高企，債台高築的歐洲諸國自然會考慮沽售手頭上的黃金以減少債務，故歐洲各國的賣金行動應很快又會再開始，而國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)也許需要沽金來增加資金流動性去拯救各財困國和銀行。
另外，金價急升的主要原因之一是美元持續弱勢，有利商品價格，加上歐美相繼出現主權債務危機，黃金成為主要的避險資產。現時美元經10年熊市後轉勢，未來出現牛市機會極大，投資者對歐洲能成功解決債務問題的看法亦已變得較為正面。當歐債問題得到解決，投資者無險要避的時候，處於高位的黃金能不成為沽售對象嗎？如明年全球經濟出現衰退，商品還有運行嗎？聰明的投資者是應該追逐10年內升值7倍的黃金，還是會購入較10年前價格低逾三分之一，而還享有3厘回報的美元資產(30年美國國債)呢(美匯指數由2002年的121高位跌至80以下)？
另一個會令黃金價格回落的潛在原因是近年冒起甚速的黃金ETF(交易所買賣基金) 持貨甚重。由於黃金價格近幾年大幅上升，吸引愈來愈多的投資者投資黃金，而買入黃金ETF便是其中一個方便的途徑。根據世界黃金協會的數據顯示，黃金 ETF發行商持有的黃金「好倉」由2007年的700噸水平升至2010年的超過2100噸水平。這些投資者在最近的大升浪中獲利甚豐。黃金價格一旦出現轉勢，ETF持有者或會大手獲利回吐以鎖定利潤，導致ETF莊家需要相應地平掉好倉，故此現在黃金中長線下行風險極高。
現階段黃金未來還有2個上升機會，一是美國在逼不得已下將會推出最後的QE3(第三輪量化寬鬆措施)去挽救疲弱的經濟，二是當希臘最終違約而被迫退出歐盟組織時，黃金好友將會作出最後一擊，但如金價未能再創新高或未能守穩於1700美元(雙頭頸線)之上，則黃金10年大牛市氣數已盡！小心，小心！
杜冠雄
英皇證券集團研究部執行董事
明報財經網
施政報告已過，筆者繼續評述黃金去留。
黃金的需求多年來頗為穩定，世界黃金協會的數據顯示，2001至2010年的需求上下波動範圍只是約3200噸至3800噸。黃金實際用途不多，工業用黃金只佔總需求約10%，黃金的主要角色是作為投資及儲蓄的工具(首飾用金當然不少，但它們同時也是投資，可隨時變賣)。黃金的產量多年來都非常平穩，除了 2008年產量稍低外(約2250噸)，過去10年產量一直維持在約2400至2600噸的水平，變動不大。其實，金礦供應的黃金只佔黃金總供應約 60%，另外40%的供應則來自其他不同途徑如個人投資者、央行及工業等的循環再做黃金(recycle gold)。這些來源靈活性高，對黃金供應的影響舉足輕重。2009和2010年黃金供應量分別為4034和4108噸，但需求只得2493和3812 噸，顯示黃金並不存在供不應求的情。
現時世界各國央行持有大量黃金儲備，但黃金實際用途有限，除了有升值的可能外，不會提供收益。過去約20年，各發達國央行都逐漸減少黃金的儲存量，為黃金的淨供應者。但由於歐洲央行於2008年金融海嘯後近幾年大幅減少賣金，加上各新興國家如印度、韓國等增加購進黃金，2010年為21年來各國央行首次成為黃金的爭購進者，支持金價上升。同時全球推出寬鬆貨幣政策引致資金氾濫，通脹飛升，熱錢追逐商品和其他貴重資產，加上歐債危機惡化，黃金頓成對抗通脹和避險工具的新寵兒，金價近2年突然飛升2倍。但是，現時歐債危機的主因是歐洲多個國家債務負擔太重。黃金價格高企，債台高築的歐洲諸國自然會考慮沽售手頭上的黃金以減少債務，故歐洲各國的賣金行動應很快又會再開始，而國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)也許需要沽金來增加資金流動性去拯救各財困國和銀行。
另外，金價急升的主要原因之一是美元持續弱勢，有利商品價格，加上歐美相繼出現主權債務危機，黃金成為主要的避險資產。現時美元經10年熊市後轉勢，未來出現牛市機會極大，投資者對歐洲能成功解決債務問題的看法亦已變得較為正面。當歐債問題得到解決，投資者無險要避的時候，處於高位的黃金能不成為沽售對象嗎？如明年全球經濟出現衰退，商品還有運行嗎？聰明的投資者是應該追逐10年內升值7倍的黃金，還是會購入較10年前價格低逾三分之一，而還享有3厘回報的美元資產(30年美國國債)呢(美匯指數由2002年的121高位跌至80以下)？
另一個會令黃金價格回落的潛在原因是近年冒起甚速的黃金ETF(交易所買賣基金) 持貨甚重。由於黃金價格近幾年大幅上升，吸引愈來愈多的投資者投資黃金，而買入黃金ETF便是其中一個方便的途徑。根據世界黃金協會的數據顯示，黃金 ETF發行商持有的黃金「好倉」由2007年的700噸水平升至2010年的超過2100噸水平。這些投資者在最近的大升浪中獲利甚豐。黃金價格一旦出現轉勢，ETF持有者或會大手獲利回吐以鎖定利潤，導致ETF莊家需要相應地平掉好倉，故此現在黃金中長線下行風險極高。
現階段黃金未來還有2個上升機會，一是美國在逼不得已下將會推出最後的QE3(第三輪量化寬鬆措施)去挽救疲弱的經濟，二是當希臘最終違約而被迫退出歐盟組織時，黃金好友將會作出最後一擊，但如金價未能再創新高或未能守穩於1700美元(雙頭頸線)之上，則黃金10年大牛市氣數已盡！小心，小心！
杜冠雄
英皇證券集團研究部執行董事
食肆旺場的怪現象
蘋果日報
歐債危機席捲全球，經濟衰退相信在所難免。其實香港經濟早已陷入滯脹，工資不升，通貨膨脹，打工仔生活越來越艱難。不過，香港人消費卻不見得因此節儉起來，起碼筆者與很多朋友都發現一個怪現象，就是不少食肆仍出奇旺市，排隊等位是基本動作，出名的餐廳酒樓若不預早訂位，休想光顧。
料經濟衰退滯後作用
以為食肆門庭若市全賴內地同胞刺激消費，但筆者較早前到銅鑼灣世貿中心一家日本食肆吃午飯，埋單每位四百多元，光顧的多是香港人。通脹影響下，食材價格上升，加上最低工資及舖租飆升，各食肆已相繼加價維持毛利。不受加價影響，莫非香港人真的「民以食為天」，食咗先算？抑或經濟其實未如大家想像般差？筆者估計很大機會是滯後作用。
這種怪現象，在 03年沙士後亦曾出現，筆者記得，當年很多海外客戶查詢，疫潮退卻後的香港面貌，市民信心如何？筆者特別跑到銅鑼灣，拍下市民在食肆外排隊等位的情況，還記得利園停車場張貼「滿」的告示。雖然市面人流增加，但當時香港仍面對失業率上升、經濟及物業市場不景，最深印象是時代廣場外那個的士站，仍見的士大排長龍。反映飲食業復蘇超前於整體經濟。
究竟今次是滯後抑或超前？筆者主觀願望當然是這興旺的現象持續，因為可以直接有利經濟，但這畢竟是一個怪現象。
張一鳴
歐債危機席捲全球，經濟衰退相信在所難免。其實香港經濟早已陷入滯脹，工資不升，通貨膨脹，打工仔生活越來越艱難。不過，香港人消費卻不見得因此節儉起來，起碼筆者與很多朋友都發現一個怪現象，就是不少食肆仍出奇旺市，排隊等位是基本動作，出名的餐廳酒樓若不預早訂位，休想光顧。
料經濟衰退滯後作用
以為食肆門庭若市全賴內地同胞刺激消費，但筆者較早前到銅鑼灣世貿中心一家日本食肆吃午飯，埋單每位四百多元，光顧的多是香港人。通脹影響下，食材價格上升，加上最低工資及舖租飆升，各食肆已相繼加價維持毛利。不受加價影響，莫非香港人真的「民以食為天」，食咗先算？抑或經濟其實未如大家想像般差？筆者估計很大機會是滯後作用。
這種怪現象，在 03年沙士後亦曾出現，筆者記得，當年很多海外客戶查詢，疫潮退卻後的香港面貌，市民信心如何？筆者特別跑到銅鑼灣，拍下市民在食肆外排隊等位的情況，還記得利園停車場張貼「滿」的告示。雖然市面人流增加，但當時香港仍面對失業率上升、經濟及物業市場不景，最深印象是時代廣場外那個的士站，仍見的士大排長龍。反映飲食業復蘇超前於整體經濟。
究竟今次是滯後抑或超前？筆者主觀願望當然是這興旺的現象持續，因為可以直接有利經濟，但這畢竟是一個怪現象。
張一鳴
兩個不買樓的原因
蘋果日報
話咁快 10月份已過去一大半，距離 2012年尚不足 3個月，對於新盤而言，傳統上一到 11月底，基本上已可以收爐，大部份重量級的新盤會押後至明年第一季先會開售。
今年樓價先高後低，跌市周期開始，上半年賣了樓的發展商，也毋須急於賤賣，但買家明年肯定要食定驚風散。
今年政策左右大局，先有去年底實施的額外印花稅，再有滙豐四次調高按息，本月施政報告公佈重推新居屋計劃，若是年初買樓的市民肯定不好受，仍要面對明年可能出現的下跌周期，唔知道層樓還要跌多少。
銀行收緊按揭增成本
老樓肯定同大家講，明年樓市較今年更為波動，樓價易跌難升，向來睇好本港樓市的大老友先後轉軚，最保守評估明年樓價跌一成，最激的預期兩年跌兩成，即每年平均跌一成，這幅度亦是老樓的最壞估計，要跌破三成則好多人唔掂，銀行壞賬率必定很多，這亦不是政府希望見到的事實，若重現 97年歷史，香港再有 100萬人上街都唔定。
上期講到投資者買樓花將會受壓，預期入伙盤將受到過去數年最大的打擊，撻定潮持續。好簡單就有兩個主因：第一是當時賣樓花與現價出現三至四成的溢價，那恃住以兩成首期建築期付款的買家，買樓成本將會因銀行收緊按揭上限而大為增加，無能力上會者，被迫蝕了兩成樓價定金亦在所不計。
明年土地供應有增無減
另外，明年上半年土地供應有增無減，即使減慢勾地申請，但政府仍會持續以主動推地機制，來維持每年提供 2萬伙單位的承諾；再加上港鐵尚有三幅合共 7000伙單位鐵路上蓋地皮在 4月前推出招標，絕不手軟。
旺市時，這批單位消化力毋庸置疑，但市道正從高位回落，調整期剛剛開始，發展商為求不影響銷售盈利，在淡市時減慢推盤策略，實際上背後亦有大量賣樓現金支持，待樓價跌定後才會轉守為攻。
除非有住屋需要，今年實不宜入市，少做少錯，留回現金也是最佳防守策略。
劉兆昌
http://www.HKLau.com
話咁快 10月份已過去一大半，距離 2012年尚不足 3個月，對於新盤而言，傳統上一到 11月底，基本上已可以收爐，大部份重量級的新盤會押後至明年第一季先會開售。
今年樓價先高後低，跌市周期開始，上半年賣了樓的發展商，也毋須急於賤賣，但買家明年肯定要食定驚風散。
今年政策左右大局，先有去年底實施的額外印花稅，再有滙豐四次調高按息，本月施政報告公佈重推新居屋計劃，若是年初買樓的市民肯定不好受，仍要面對明年可能出現的下跌周期，唔知道層樓還要跌多少。
銀行收緊按揭增成本
老樓肯定同大家講，明年樓市較今年更為波動，樓價易跌難升，向來睇好本港樓市的大老友先後轉軚，最保守評估明年樓價跌一成，最激的預期兩年跌兩成，即每年平均跌一成，這幅度亦是老樓的最壞估計，要跌破三成則好多人唔掂，銀行壞賬率必定很多，這亦不是政府希望見到的事實，若重現 97年歷史，香港再有 100萬人上街都唔定。
上期講到投資者買樓花將會受壓，預期入伙盤將受到過去數年最大的打擊，撻定潮持續。好簡單就有兩個主因：第一是當時賣樓花與現價出現三至四成的溢價，那恃住以兩成首期建築期付款的買家，買樓成本將會因銀行收緊按揭上限而大為增加，無能力上會者，被迫蝕了兩成樓價定金亦在所不計。
明年土地供應有增無減
另外，明年上半年土地供應有增無減，即使減慢勾地申請，但政府仍會持續以主動推地機制，來維持每年提供 2萬伙單位的承諾；再加上港鐵尚有三幅合共 7000伙單位鐵路上蓋地皮在 4月前推出招標，絕不手軟。
旺市時，這批單位消化力毋庸置疑，但市道正從高位回落，調整期剛剛開始，發展商為求不影響銷售盈利，在淡市時減慢推盤策略，實際上背後亦有大量賣樓現金支持，待樓價跌定後才會轉守為攻。
除非有住屋需要，今年實不宜入市，少做少錯，留回現金也是最佳防守策略。
劉兆昌
http://www.HKLau.com
大鱷重傷 敗走香港
文匯報
香港文匯報訊 （記者 黃詩韻）港股大波動，連大鱷也受重傷，敗走香港。總部設於紐約的對沖基金Perry Capital決定關閉香港辦事處，並將裁減30名基金經理。有研究數據顯示，亞洲對沖基金單是9月份已流走19億美元，為17個月來首次出現資金淨流出。
香港文匯報訊 （記者 黃詩韻）港股大波動，連大鱷也受重傷，敗走香港。總部設於紐約的對沖基金Perry Capital決定關閉香港辦事處，並將裁減30名基金經理。有研究數據顯示，亞洲對沖基金單是9月份已流走19億美元，為17個月來首次出現資金淨流出。
據路透社消息，自8月及9月地區對沖基金虧損以來，陸續已有大型國際公司倒閉，而Perry Capital是次裁減全部16名香港員工，包括亞洲業務合夥人Alp Ercil。據指，Alp Ercil拒絕調去倫敦及紐約，不過已經辭職，擬將與部分Perry Capital員工於明年開設自己的對沖基金公司。
集中發展美國歐洲業務
是次被裁員工有約30名投資組合經理、分析員及3名合夥人，亦包括另外2名合夥人，集中於私募基金 的George Broka及房地產投資的Andy Isikoff。Perry Capital紐約及倫敦辦事處將會大大減少房地產及私募基金業務。Perry Capital管理約80億美元資金，而裁員乃為調撥資源，專注發展美國及歐洲市場業務。
全球經濟不景加上歐債危機拖累，9月季度的全球股票市場資金已經損失約5.29萬億美元，資料顯示，7至9月是史上第4差表現的季度。大約80隻亞洲對沖基金今年已經關閉，原因是投資者不再注入資金到該地區。
全球鱷資減370億美元
基金產業調查公司Eurekahedge的資料顯示，受9月份全球經濟疑慮及歐債危機衝擊，全球市 場大跌，該機構估計全球對沖基金業資產9月減少370億美元，降至1.76萬億美元。偏重亞洲的對沖基金9月資金淨流出19億美元，為17個月來首次單月 淨流出。9月淨流出金額抵銷了先前三個月的淨流入，使得今年以來流入這類對沖基金的資金降至約50億美元。
Eurekahedge的亞洲對沖基金指數9月下跌4.31%，為2000年開始編纂指數以來的第四大單月跌幅。摩根士丹利資本國際(MSCI)亞太股指的9月跌幅為9.5%，創2010年5月以來最大跌幅。
2011年10月21日 星期五
今日恒生買2012年1/4盎司袋鼠金幣
因為今日有親戚尖沙咀請食飯, 所以唔會放過在低位去銀行買金幣的機會, 而拉咗老公去中環恒生買咗2012年的靚仔袋鼠金幣 ! 我揀咗1/4盎司的賣3429蚊 ! 當然又俾老公哦咗成條街 !
www.perthmintbullion.com/Blog/Blog.aspx
We will release up to 350,000 1oz coins, 100,000 1/2oz coins, 150,000 1/4oz coins and 200,000 1/10oz coins featuring a new kangaroo design by Wade Robinson showing our most famous marsupial and a windmill.
2011年10月20日 星期四
假PM半盎司金銀龍
www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=91450&page=24
Just be careful; a seller in England is selling 1/2oz silver bullion dragons coins that have been gilded.
SILVER 24K Gold Gilded Half Ounce 2012 Lunar Year of the Dragon PM Encapsulated
FYI there's no 1/2 oz gilded coins produced by Perth.
The only official gilded coin is the, 2012 Silver Australian Lunar Year of the Dragon – 1oz, Gilded Coin
Just be careful; a seller in England is selling 1/2oz silver bullion dragons coins that have been gilded.
SILVER 24K Gold Gilded Half Ounce 2012 Lunar Year of the Dragon PM Encapsulated
FYI there's no 1/2 oz gilded coins produced by Perth.
The only official gilded coin is the, 2012 Silver Australian Lunar Year of the Dragon – 1oz, Gilded Coin
Perl Mint 11月一日新幣
www.perthmint.com.au/forthcoming-releases.aspx
- 2012 Year of the Dragon Gold Coloured Proof Coins
- 2012 Year of the Dragon 1oz Silver Proof Rectangular Four-Coin Set
- H.M. Queen Elizabeth II - Diamond Jubilee - 2012 Gold and Silver Proof Coins
- Baby Dragon - 2011 1/2oz Silver Proof Coin
- Ships That Changed the World - Mayflower 2012 1oz Silver Proof Coin
- Australian Sea Life II - The Reef - Surgeonfish 2012 1/2oz Silver Proof Coin
- Australian Bush Babies - Kangaroo 2011 Stamp and Coin Cover
- 2012 1oz Silver Koala in Card
- 2011 Christmas Stamp and Coin Cover
Release dates subject to change without notice.
金銀價又試支持位
金價睇 1600, 而銀價睇 30 !股市再試低位 !
都唔明點解咁多人鍾情於股市 ?
如果世界已變, 金融要返去沒出咁多衍生工具之前, 而恒指有機會跌去10000點之後橫行十年都升唔去一萬二, 試問依家買股票有何用 ?
係唔係都叫人全資買股票長揸的人害己害人 !
伯南克轉軚 擬加息抗泡沫
文匯報
聯儲局主席伯南克前日在波士頓聯儲銀行會議上表示，金融危機改變了全球央行運作方式，在經濟回歸正軌及短期利率政策空間增大後，未來聯儲局可能更明確地為利率政策制定期限。他又改變聯儲局一貫立場，稱未來可能透過加息對抗資產泡沫。
這番言論與聯儲局一向論調不同，2008年金融海嘯前，包括前主席格林斯潘在內的聯儲局官員均主張，貨幣政策並非打擊資產泡沫的適當工具。分析指，伯南克的話顯示未來聯儲局或會使用新的監管權力，打擊市場過度炒作或信貸增長。
伯南克承認，金融危機為美國經濟、社會、政治，以及央行的運作模式都帶來深遠影響，但聯儲局於金融危機後推出的一系列貨幣政策，包括減息、量化寬鬆(QE)、以及更明確的利率政策執行期限，均對整個金融體系以至穩定市場情緒發揮重要作用。
波士頓會場遭遇示威
他表示，聯儲局會繼續尋求進一步提高經濟預測及利率政策制定透明度的方法，又指當經濟恢復正常後，調整資產負債表等非常規政策工具可能將較少使用。聯儲局將於11月1至2日舉行下次議息會議，伯南克在會上未有提及未來息口走勢和當前經濟狀況。由於波士頓聯儲銀行大樓外有示威者舉行「佔領波士頓」活動，故伯南克當天選擇了在另一個門口進入會場。
■新華社/綜合外電消息
聯儲局主席伯南克前日在波士頓聯儲銀行會議上表示，金融危機改變了全球央行運作方式，在經濟回歸正軌及短期利率政策空間增大後，未來聯儲局可能更明確地為利率政策制定期限。他又改變聯儲局一貫立場，稱未來可能透過加息對抗資產泡沫。
這番言論與聯儲局一向論調不同，2008年金融海嘯前，包括前主席格林斯潘在內的聯儲局官員均主張，貨幣政策並非打擊資產泡沫的適當工具。分析指，伯南克的話顯示未來聯儲局或會使用新的監管權力，打擊市場過度炒作或信貸增長。
伯南克承認，金融危機為美國經濟、社會、政治，以及央行的運作模式都帶來深遠影響，但聯儲局於金融危機後推出的一系列貨幣政策，包括減息、量化寬鬆(QE)、以及更明確的利率政策執行期限，均對整個金融體系以至穩定市場情緒發揮重要作用。
波士頓會場遭遇示威
他表示，聯儲局會繼續尋求進一步提高經濟預測及利率政策制定透明度的方法，又指當經濟恢復正常後，調整資產負債表等非常規政策工具可能將較少使用。聯儲局將於11月1至2日舉行下次議息會議，伯南克在會上未有提及未來息口走勢和當前經濟狀況。由於波士頓聯儲銀行大樓外有示威者舉行「佔領波士頓」活動，故伯南克當天選擇了在另一個門口進入會場。
■新華社/綜合外電消息
2011年10月19日 星期三
2011年10月18日 星期二
港金場首推離岸黃金產品 人幣公斤條可套戥
文匯報
香港文匯報訊（記者 周紹基）金銀業貿易場昨日正式推出全球首個離岸人民幣黃金產品，理事長張德熙表示，現階段設定交收上限每日300公斤，初步估計，每日交收量涉1億至3億 元人民幣。昨日該產品的首天交易量為322公斤，結算價為每克346.95人民幣，相等於1.11億人民幣，交易額符合貿易場的原先預期。他又預計，金價 於今年第四季或明年首季，可以挑戰每安士2,000美元。
香港文匯報訊（記者 周紹基）金銀業貿易場昨日正式推出全球首個離岸人民幣黃金產品，理事長張德熙表示，現階段設定交收上限每日300公斤，初步估計，每日交收量涉1億至3億 元人民幣。昨日該產品的首天交易量為322公斤，結算價為每克346.95人民幣，相等於1.11億人民幣，交易額符合貿易場的原先預期。他又預計，金價 於今年第四季或明年首季，可以挑戰每安士2,000美元。
張德熙指，現時每日涉及本港的整體黃金公斤條（包括現貨、期貨，以及與本港有關的倫敦金）成交額 約2,000億元，他希望人民幣公斤條產品，能於一個月內成交額佔該貿易場的整體成交5%至10%，半年內期望提升至30%。他續表示，黃金可作為投資者 的避險資產，人民幣亦屬於平穩增長的貨幣，因此人民幣公斤條黃金，是具有雙重避險功效的工具，預計未來會愈來愈受投資者歡迎。
套戥操作成本達7萬
張德熙解釋指，現時內地官方人民幣定價(CNY)與香港離岸中心人民幣定價(CNH)有價格差別， 機構及投資者可通過貿易場的人民幣公斤條黃金計價產品，間接或直接持有人民幣。同時，本地投資者亦可先沽人民幣公斤條黃金合約，後交實金收取人民幣，賺取 較港元高息並同時兼享人民幣升值。
金銀業貿易場理事馮廉表示，目前黃金價格已累升至相當高的水平，買賣黃金存在的風險頗大，因此， 投資者可選擇沽出人民幣公斤條黃金合約，這等同買入人民幣，獲得人民幣的升值得益。若擔心金市波動，可同時買入期金沽出美元，以套戥金市上升的風險。但他 說，這類套戥操作的成本十分高昂，沽出一張美國商品期貨交易所的期金的費用達7萬港元，只適合金商或專業投資者參與。
或再推人幣計價銀條
張德熙表示，歡迎散戶、本地金商及珠寶商和國際投資者參與，希望未來散戶佔比能達40%至60%。隨著人民幣公斤條黃金產品發展成熟，往後不排除會推出人民幣計價的銀條產品。
金價方面，早前金價於每安士1,900美元水平急速調整，張德熙認為，黃金會於1,500至1,700美元水平整固，當整固期過後，黃金將再進入另一次牛市的第一期，故預計金價可在今年第四季或明年首季挑戰2,000美元水平。
貿易場的人民幣公斤條黃金，為9999成色公斤條，規格與上海黃金交易所劃一。投資者可透過貿易場的25個會員買賣，每一公斤持倉按金暫定為1.6萬元人民幣，交易時間由早上8時至翌日凌晨3點半，並可以實金交收。永亨(0302)和中銀(2388)為產品的結算銀行。
2011年10月17日 星期一
Derivatives: The $600 Trillion Time Bomb That's Set to Explode
moneymorning.com
October 12, 2011
By Keith Fitz-Gerald, Chief Investment Strategist, Money Morning
Do you want to know the real reason banks aren't lending and the PIIGS have control of the barnyard in Europe?
It's because risk in the $600 trillion derivatives market isn't evening out. To the contrary, it's growing increasingly concentrated among a select few banks, especially here in the United States.
In 2009, five banks held 80% of derivatives in America. Now, just four banks hold a staggering 95.9% of U.S. derivatives, according to a recent report from the Office of the Currency Comptroller.
The four banks in question: JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM), Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C), Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC) and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS).
Derivatives played a crucial role in bringing down the global economy, so you would think that the world's top policymakers would have reined these things in by now - but they haven't.
Instead of attacking the problem, regulators have let it spiral out of control, and the result is a $600 trillion time bomb called the derivatives market.
Think I'm exaggerating?
The notional value of the world's derivatives actually is estimated at more than $600 trillion. Notional value, of course, is the total value of a leveraged position's assets. This distinction is necessary because when you're talking about leveraged assets like options and derivatives, a little bit of money can control a disproportionately large position that may be as much as 5, 10, 30, or, in extreme cases, 100 times greater than investments that could be funded only in cash instruments.
The world's gross domestic product (GDP) is only about $65 trillion, or roughly 10.83% of the worldwide value of the global derivatives market, according to The Economist. So there is literally not enough money on the planet to backstop the banks trading these things if they run into trouble.
Compounding the problem is the fact that nobody even knows if the $600 trillion figure is accurate, because specialized derivatives vehicles like the credit default swaps that are now roiling Europe remain largely unregulated and unaccounted for.
Tick...Tick...Tick
To be fair, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) estimated the net notional value of uncollateralized derivatives risks is between $2 trillion and $8 trillion, which is still a staggering amount of money and well beyond the billions being talked about in Europe.
Imagine the fallout from a $600 trillion explosion if several banks went down at once. It would eclipse the collapse of Lehman Brothers in no uncertain terms.
A governmental default would panic already anxious investors, causing a run on several major European banks in an effort to recover their deposits. That would, in turn, cause several banks to literally run out of money and declare bankruptcy.
Short-term borrowing costs would skyrocket and liquidity would evaporate. That would cause a ricochet across the Atlantic as the institutions themselves then panic and try to recover their own capital by withdrawing liquidity by any means possible.
And that's why banks are hoarding cash instead of lending it.
The major banks know there is no way they can collateralize the potential daisy chain failure that Greece represents. So they're doing everything they can to stockpile cash and keep their trading under wraps and away from public scrutiny.
What really scares me, though, is that the banks think this is an acceptable risk because the odds of a default are allegedly smaller than one in 10,000.
But haven't we heard that before?
Although American banks have limited their exposure to Greece, they have loaned hundreds of billions of dollars to European banks and European governments that may not be capable of paying them back.
According to the Bank of International Settlements, U.S. banks have loaned only $60.5 billion to banks in Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy - the countries most at risk of default. But they've lent $275.8 billion to French and German banks.
And undoubtedly bet trillions on the same debt.
There are three key takeaways here:
* There is not enough capital on hand to cover the possible losses associated with the default of a single counterparty - JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM), BNP Paribas SA (PINK: BNPQY) or the National Bank of Greece (NYSE ADR: NBG) for example - let alone multiple failures.
* That means banks with large derivatives exposure have to risk even more money to generate the incremental returns needed to cover the bets they've already made.
* And the fact that Wall Street believes it has the risks under control practically guarantees that it doesn't.
Seems to me that the world's central bankers and politicians should be less concerned about stimulating "demand" and more concerned about fixing derivatives before this $600 trillion time bomb goes off.
October 12, 2011
By Keith Fitz-Gerald, Chief Investment Strategist, Money Morning
Do you want to know the real reason banks aren't lending and the PIIGS have control of the barnyard in Europe?
It's because risk in the $600 trillion derivatives market isn't evening out. To the contrary, it's growing increasingly concentrated among a select few banks, especially here in the United States.
In 2009, five banks held 80% of derivatives in America. Now, just four banks hold a staggering 95.9% of U.S. derivatives, according to a recent report from the Office of the Currency Comptroller.
The four banks in question: JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM), Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C), Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC) and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS).
Derivatives played a crucial role in bringing down the global economy, so you would think that the world's top policymakers would have reined these things in by now - but they haven't.
Instead of attacking the problem, regulators have let it spiral out of control, and the result is a $600 trillion time bomb called the derivatives market.
Think I'm exaggerating?
The notional value of the world's derivatives actually is estimated at more than $600 trillion. Notional value, of course, is the total value of a leveraged position's assets. This distinction is necessary because when you're talking about leveraged assets like options and derivatives, a little bit of money can control a disproportionately large position that may be as much as 5, 10, 30, or, in extreme cases, 100 times greater than investments that could be funded only in cash instruments.
The world's gross domestic product (GDP) is only about $65 trillion, or roughly 10.83% of the worldwide value of the global derivatives market, according to The Economist. So there is literally not enough money on the planet to backstop the banks trading these things if they run into trouble.
Compounding the problem is the fact that nobody even knows if the $600 trillion figure is accurate, because specialized derivatives vehicles like the credit default swaps that are now roiling Europe remain largely unregulated and unaccounted for.
Tick...Tick...Tick
To be fair, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) estimated the net notional value of uncollateralized derivatives risks is between $2 trillion and $8 trillion, which is still a staggering amount of money and well beyond the billions being talked about in Europe.
Imagine the fallout from a $600 trillion explosion if several banks went down at once. It would eclipse the collapse of Lehman Brothers in no uncertain terms.
A governmental default would panic already anxious investors, causing a run on several major European banks in an effort to recover their deposits. That would, in turn, cause several banks to literally run out of money and declare bankruptcy.
Short-term borrowing costs would skyrocket and liquidity would evaporate. That would cause a ricochet across the Atlantic as the institutions themselves then panic and try to recover their own capital by withdrawing liquidity by any means possible.
And that's why banks are hoarding cash instead of lending it.
The major banks know there is no way they can collateralize the potential daisy chain failure that Greece represents. So they're doing everything they can to stockpile cash and keep their trading under wraps and away from public scrutiny.
What really scares me, though, is that the banks think this is an acceptable risk because the odds of a default are allegedly smaller than one in 10,000.
But haven't we heard that before?
Although American banks have limited their exposure to Greece, they have loaned hundreds of billions of dollars to European banks and European governments that may not be capable of paying them back.
According to the Bank of International Settlements, U.S. banks have loaned only $60.5 billion to banks in Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy - the countries most at risk of default. But they've lent $275.8 billion to French and German banks.
And undoubtedly bet trillions on the same debt.
There are three key takeaways here:
* There is not enough capital on hand to cover the possible losses associated with the default of a single counterparty - JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM), BNP Paribas SA (PINK: BNPQY) or the National Bank of Greece (NYSE ADR: NBG) for example - let alone multiple failures.
* That means banks with large derivatives exposure have to risk even more money to generate the incremental returns needed to cover the bets they've already made.
* And the fact that Wall Street believes it has the risks under control practically guarantees that it doesn't.
Seems to me that the world's central bankers and politicians should be less concerned about stimulating "demand" and more concerned about fixing derivatives before this $600 trillion time bomb goes off.
2011年10月14日 星期五
Foreigners Dump $74 Billion In Treasurys In 6 Consecutive Weeks
www.zerohedge.com
Over the weekend, we observed the perplexing sell off of $56 billion in US Treasurys courtesy of weekly disclosure in the Fed's custodial account (source: H.4.1) and speculated if this may be due to an asset rotation, under duress or otherwise, out of bonds and into stocks, to prevent the collapse of the global ponzi (because when the BRICs tell the IMF to boost its bailout capacity you know it is global). We also proposed a far simpler theory: "the dreaded D-day in which foreign official and private investors finally start offloading their $2.7 trillion in Treasurys with impunity (although not with the element of surprise - China has made it abundantly clear it will sell its Treasury holdings, the only question is when), has finally arrived." In hindsight the Occam's Razor should have been applied. Little did we know 5 short days ago just how violent the reaction by China would be (both post and pre-facto) to the Senate decision to propose a law for all out trade warfare with China. Now we know - in the week ended October 12, a further $17.7 billion was "removed" from the Fed's custodial Treasury account, meaning that someone, somewhere is very displeased with US paper, and, far more importantly, what it represents, and wants to make their displeasure heard loud and clear. Whether it is China - we do not know: we may have a better view in two months when the September/October TIC data hits, but even then it will be full of errors, as Direct Bidder purchases by the UK usually end up being assigned to China at the yearly TIC audit. And the sellers know this all too well. What they also know is that over the next few days (or weeks - ZH tends to be a little "aggressive" in its estimates for popular uptake), as soon as the broader population understands what has transpired, concerns about the reserve status of the greenback will start to resurface, precisely as many have been warning. And what has happened is that in six consecutive weeks, foreigners have sold $74 billion, or more government bonds in a sequential period of time than ever before.
So... perhaps it is time to reevaluate US intentions for a trade war with any of its "evil" mercantilist, UST-recycling partners. Unless, of course, they want $74 billion to become $740 billion, and to force the Fed to have no choice but to intervene, only this time not with a duration sterilized procedure, but one where the Fed has to buy everything that China et al are selling.
On the other hand, judging by the traditional reaction of various precious metals to this kind of fiat suicide, perhaps it is not such a bad idea after all...
Over the weekend, we observed the perplexing sell off of $56 billion in US Treasurys courtesy of weekly disclosure in the Fed's custodial account (source: H.4.1) and speculated if this may be due to an asset rotation, under duress or otherwise, out of bonds and into stocks, to prevent the collapse of the global ponzi (because when the BRICs tell the IMF to boost its bailout capacity you know it is global). We also proposed a far simpler theory: "the dreaded D-day in which foreign official and private investors finally start offloading their $2.7 trillion in Treasurys with impunity (although not with the element of surprise - China has made it abundantly clear it will sell its Treasury holdings, the only question is when), has finally arrived." In hindsight the Occam's Razor should have been applied. Little did we know 5 short days ago just how violent the reaction by China would be (both post and pre-facto) to the Senate decision to propose a law for all out trade warfare with China. Now we know - in the week ended October 12, a further $17.7 billion was "removed" from the Fed's custodial Treasury account, meaning that someone, somewhere is very displeased with US paper, and, far more importantly, what it represents, and wants to make their displeasure heard loud and clear. Whether it is China - we do not know: we may have a better view in two months when the September/October TIC data hits, but even then it will be full of errors, as Direct Bidder purchases by the UK usually end up being assigned to China at the yearly TIC audit. And the sellers know this all too well. What they also know is that over the next few days (or weeks - ZH tends to be a little "aggressive" in its estimates for popular uptake), as soon as the broader population understands what has transpired, concerns about the reserve status of the greenback will start to resurface, precisely as many have been warning. And what has happened is that in six consecutive weeks, foreigners have sold $74 billion, or more government bonds in a sequential period of time than ever before.
So... perhaps it is time to reevaluate US intentions for a trade war with any of its "evil" mercantilist, UST-recycling partners. Unless, of course, they want $74 billion to become $740 billion, and to force the Fed to have no choice but to intervene, only this time not with a duration sterilized procedure, but one where the Fed has to buy everything that China et al are selling.
On the other hand, judging by the traditional reaction of various precious metals to this kind of fiat suicide, perhaps it is not such a bad idea after all...
本港網民號召明日佔領中環
明報即時新聞網
美國「佔領華爾街」運動透過互聯網，蔓延至亞洲城市，本港有網民號召明日發起「佔領中環」行動。
有網民在臉書成立「佔領中環 Occupy Central」專頁，呼籲民眾在10月15日到中環交易廣場集合。
召集人聲稱會在下午2時舉行一次公開論壇，討論「佔領」的意義、外國佔領的經驗、為何要反資本主義等，從而商討佔領的具體行動。至今已有逾2200多人按「讚」以示支持。
台灣方面，有網友在月初透過臉書發起「佔領台北 Occupy Taipei 運動」，邀請民眾一同在10月15日早上10點，在台北101大樓前門口集合，一同進行和平示威活動。
新加坡亦有人在網上發起在金融區示威，但警方警告這是違法的。警方表示，任何人不能參加該示威，因這是違法的。有人在網上發起於本周六，在金融區萊佛士坊示威，然後遊行到新加坡交易所。
主辦者在網上稱，即使受到警告，他們仍會繼續行動。他們要求問責及改變，並批評主權基金淡馬錫及新加坡政府投資公司。
2011年10月13日 星期四
2011年10月12日 星期三
Physical silver running out
news.silverseek.com
By: Peter Cooper, Arabian Money
Several readers of ArabianMoney have written to us over the past two weeks to express their astonishment at the current price of silver because demand where they live is so high that stocks have run out.
By: Peter Cooper, Arabian Money
Several readers of ArabianMoney have written to us over the past two weeks to express their astonishment at the current price of silver because demand where they live is so high that stocks have run out.
Consider this comment: ‘I used to buy silver from a shop in Kobar in Saudi. From the last four weeks they said they ran out of silver. I cannot find anyone who sells silver in Saudi now. I asked them from where do they get their silver. They said the UAE. The problem is they only have 1kg bars…and I still cannot find any supplier.’
No stock
Well don’t bother coming to the UAE. Our information is that the 1kg bars mentioned here and featured in a video on the website last month (click here) are all sold out too. We’ve also had feedback about low or no stock in Texas and Australia from big private bullion dealers there.
Now what would normally happen when a commodity is in short supply is that the price would go up to encourage sellers to put some more into the market. That is presently not happening because the silver price is being artificially suppressed in the Comex futures market by the bullion banks acting on instructions from the Fed presumably, so why would you sell that silver cheaply if you happened to own some?
But something has to give and it is the price of physical silver rather than the Comex price of the shiniest of metals. If you can find any silver these days you will pay quite a substantial premium over the spot price. But pay it because that is probably still a bargain compared to where silver prices are going.
The truth is that silver is a rare metal, more rare than gold. Silver reserves have been estimatated at one-hundredth of gold reserves. Silver is after all consumed by industrial processes and reserves have dwindled over the years because the price has been kept so low for so long by market manipulation. Why is that?
Silver price fixing
This market manipulation dates back to the last silver boom of the late 70s and the spectacular $50 spike in the price in 1980. The central banks then saw suppression of the silver and gold price as a part of their war on inflation. They clearly lost that war but kept gold and silver prices down until this decade.
Thirty-one years later and we are still not back to those silver prices despite a seven-fold increase in the global money supply. On that reckoning silver ought to be $350 an ounce, not $30 today.
However, the snap back for silver prices now has the capacity to be sensational, and far beyond the mini-spike in the first few months of this year from $30 to almost $50 again. So those who go seeking out physical silver to buy at current prices are going to be very well rewarded and soon, not in 31 years!
ArabianMoney continues to stick with silver as our top tip for 2011 and that means a big rebound in the price before the end of the year.
$15,000 Gold as Bull Market Pace Accelerates
kingworldnews.com
With continued volatility in the gold and silver markets, today King World News interviewed acclaimed money manager Stephen Leeb. When asked what he sees happening, Leeb responded, “The talk about letting inflation rise is gaining momentum and is seeping through the cracks in the Federal Reserve. That is an extraordinary sign for gold. If the Fed really does come to the conclusion that fighting unemployment is more important than inflation, for the short-term, I think that you are into the second part of the gold bull market which should be even more dynamic than the first.”
Stephen Leeb continues:
“We’ve had some clues. I have spoken recently about Evans, from the Chicago Fed, who said explicitly, ‘The Fed should stop targeting inflation in the short-term and start targeting unemployment. More interesting is the fact that Fisher, who heads the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank and has been one of the three dissenters in the last two FOMC meetings, he’s been very much in favor of inflation fighting in the past.
He (Fisher) commented recently that, ‘Inequality in the United States had been increasing recently.’ What’s intriguing to me is that the only time in recent history in which inequalities have lessoned in the country has been in the 1970’s when we did have inflation. I think the Fed is coming to the conclusion that this whole thing of defending 2% inflation is really ridiculous and is inconsistent with ever getting unemployment down.
History shows that after every war, from the Civil War to the Vietnam War, inflation spikes and often spikes to over 20%. My bottom line is we’re getting closer and closer to the point where the Fed says we are going to have to tolerate more inflation. When that point comes you will definitely see the next leg of this bull market in gold....
“Since the last ten or eleven years have already seen a lot of upside for gold, this next ten or eleven years in which inflation does take off in a big way will make the decade look very, very tame. I’m talking about this accelerating into the next leg for gold and silver over the next three to six months.
This is simple, once inflation is out of the bag, once the Fed is saying forget about 2 %, either implicitly or explicitly, you will see velocity of money and everything else take off. But more importantly you will really see the precious metals take off to the upside.
At that point you will see your three digit price in silver and gold is going to go much, much higher once inflation takes off at an accelerated pace. I think you will see a manic phase later on with $10,000 gold, $12,000 gold, $15,000 gold, pick a number, because with inflation in the drivers seat you will certainly see a repeat of what you saw in the 70’s.
Here is an interesting fact, gold bottomed almost exactly when inflation bottomed in the 70’s. In 1976 the CPI hit 4% and then the CPI went into double digits. When that was happening to inflation gold went up over eight fold in price. If you take the recent low and multiply over eight fold you are talking well over $12,000 for the price of gold. We are about to head into the inflationary phase and that phase alone will create an extraordinarily huge move for the price of gold.”
With continued volatility in the gold and silver markets, today King World News interviewed acclaimed money manager Stephen Leeb. When asked what he sees happening, Leeb responded, “The talk about letting inflation rise is gaining momentum and is seeping through the cracks in the Federal Reserve. That is an extraordinary sign for gold. If the Fed really does come to the conclusion that fighting unemployment is more important than inflation, for the short-term, I think that you are into the second part of the gold bull market which should be even more dynamic than the first.”
Stephen Leeb continues:
“We’ve had some clues. I have spoken recently about Evans, from the Chicago Fed, who said explicitly, ‘The Fed should stop targeting inflation in the short-term and start targeting unemployment. More interesting is the fact that Fisher, who heads the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank and has been one of the three dissenters in the last two FOMC meetings, he’s been very much in favor of inflation fighting in the past.
He (Fisher) commented recently that, ‘Inequality in the United States had been increasing recently.’ What’s intriguing to me is that the only time in recent history in which inequalities have lessoned in the country has been in the 1970’s when we did have inflation. I think the Fed is coming to the conclusion that this whole thing of defending 2% inflation is really ridiculous and is inconsistent with ever getting unemployment down.
History shows that after every war, from the Civil War to the Vietnam War, inflation spikes and often spikes to over 20%. My bottom line is we’re getting closer and closer to the point where the Fed says we are going to have to tolerate more inflation. When that point comes you will definitely see the next leg of this bull market in gold....
“Since the last ten or eleven years have already seen a lot of upside for gold, this next ten or eleven years in which inflation does take off in a big way will make the decade look very, very tame. I’m talking about this accelerating into the next leg for gold and silver over the next three to six months.
This is simple, once inflation is out of the bag, once the Fed is saying forget about 2 %, either implicitly or explicitly, you will see velocity of money and everything else take off. But more importantly you will really see the precious metals take off to the upside.
At that point you will see your three digit price in silver and gold is going to go much, much higher once inflation takes off at an accelerated pace. I think you will see a manic phase later on with $10,000 gold, $12,000 gold, $15,000 gold, pick a number, because with inflation in the drivers seat you will certainly see a repeat of what you saw in the 70’s.
Here is an interesting fact, gold bottomed almost exactly when inflation bottomed in the 70’s. In 1976 the CPI hit 4% and then the CPI went into double digits. When that was happening to inflation gold went up over eight fold in price. If you take the recent low and multiply over eight fold you are talking well over $12,000 for the price of gold. We are about to head into the inflationary phase and that phase alone will create an extraordinarily huge move for the price of gold.”
2011年10月11日 星期二
2011年10月10日 星期一
回應[黃金喪鐘已經敲響]
本人一早說過, 世上無 sure win 的投資, 乜投資都有風險的, 所以才提議一定要分散投資唔好一鑊熟 !
黃金是否會玩完或是陷阱無人知, 不過大家須保持冷靜頭腦去分析 !
所以本人以為, 手持一些實金實銀為長線策略是無壞的, 而本人實金加實銀都只是流勳資金的29%, 所以還可以承受到下跌的風險 ! 但想短炒的人就要小心啦, 唔好炒ETF, 唔好買紙金紙銀 !
作者:海嘯後的希望全文
最近在中國無數的經濟學家的唱多黃金，有人近乎瘋狂說黃金到10000美元也不奇怪，有人更是畢恭畢敬的叫 黃金 先生站起來。輿論一邊倒的唱多黃金，曾經預言黃金下跌的人，就成為恥笑的對象，當然包括本人。但是，我今天依然要唱空黃金，打醒那些被黃金征服和為黃金瘋狂的人。
黃金是否會玩完或是陷阱無人知, 不過大家須保持冷靜頭腦去分析 !
- 大家都知美國不想見到資金流去黃金而唔去買美債, 所以使出種種手段去打壓黃金的升勢 !
- 世上資源也愈來愈少, 所以實物只會愈來愈貴, 而唔係愈來愈便宜 !
- 各國政府在亂印銀紙只會加大通脹的壓力, 所以惡性通脹遲早會來 !
所以本人以為, 手持一些實金實銀為長線策略是無壞的, 而本人實金加實銀都只是流勳資金的29%, 所以還可以承受到下跌的風險 ! 但想短炒的人就要小心啦, 唔好炒ETF, 唔好買紙金紙銀 !
作者:海嘯後的希望全文
最近在中國無數的經濟學家的唱多黃金，有人近乎瘋狂說黃金到10000美元也不奇怪，有人更是畢恭畢敬的叫 黃金 先生站起來。輿論一邊倒的唱多黃金，曾經預言黃金下跌的人，就成為恥笑的對象，當然包括本人。但是，我今天依然要唱空黃金，打醒那些被黃金征服和為黃金瘋狂的人。
「佔領華爾街」 美兩黨攻防
明報新聞網
【明報專訊】反金融霸權的「佔領華爾街」運動擴展至美國全國近900個城巿，更掀起民主共和兩黨攻防戰。兩黨爭相利用示威互相攻擊，希望左右明年總統大選選情。民主黨領袖公開表態支持示威，並趁機炮轟共和黨；但共和黨反指示威挑起「階級戰爭」，斥奧巴馬政府故意支持示威「轉移視線」。
「佔領華爾街」行動日益壯大，在運動「發祥地」紐約，由於集會者愈來愈多，原來大本營自由廣場水泄不通，示威發起組織表示有需要組織另一個「人民大會」大本營。奧巴馬上周表示，理解「佔領華爾街」示威者對金融系統運作的不滿與憤怒，並藉機批評共和黨屢次阻撓金融改革。但眾議院民主黨領袖佩洛西（Nancy Pelosi）周末則明確表示支持示威者，表示支持「佔領」運動擴展全國，認為可向金融界及建制表明必須改革。她藉機批評共和黨擬阻撓奧巴馬推行的 4470億美元製造就業法案，妨礙復蘇。
示威者憂政黨騎劫抗爭
選民冷淡本是民主黨明年總統大選一大阻力，但有分析相信，「佔領華爾街」會一如茶黨幫助共和黨選情一樣，刺激民主黨明年選情。副總統拜登上周亦稱，「佔領華爾街」跟茶黨有很多雷同之處。諾貝爾經濟學獎得主克魯明（Paul Krugman）亦對運動表示支持，「經過漫長等待，我們可能得見一場民眾運動冒起，而且不像茶黨，他們向正確的對象發怒」。
但共和黨人則猛烈批評。紐約眾議院議員彼德．金（Peter King）批評示威「可恥」，奧巴馬支持行動的言論「不負責任」。共和黨總統參選人亦批評示威，參選人凱恩（Hermen Cain）更指示威者不應將自己的失敗怪罪於獲得成功的金融界，反而應當自省。熱門羅姆尼（Mitt Romney）更形容示威是旨在分化美國的「階級戰爭」。雖然民主黨政客支持，但示威者並不買帳。西雅圖示威者Ted Lang稱，今次示威跟茶黨相似，但茶黨最後被右翼政客「騎劫」，他不希望「佔領華爾街」被民主黨騎劫」。
美民40年來最憎金融業
紐約市長彭博在每周電台廣播中，指摘示威「試圖破壞這個城市的就業」，無建設性。對於公共機構工會參與示威，他說﹕「他們的薪水正正來自他們要詆譭的人所交的稅」。美國史丹福大學社會學博士候選人歐文斯（Lindsay A. Owens）發表研究，指出現時美國人對金融業界的憎惡度是40年來最高。她指出，過去美國人因相信社會規則公平，較接受精英制度，少發生社會運動。但隨覑華爾街以不當手法謀利的現象曝光，令民眾感覺制度不公平，加上經濟差，民眾對華爾街態度大變，上街抗爭。
（有線新聞網絡/路透社）
【明報專訊】反金融霸權的「佔領華爾街」運動擴展至美國全國近900個城巿，更掀起民主共和兩黨攻防戰。兩黨爭相利用示威互相攻擊，希望左右明年總統大選選情。民主黨領袖公開表態支持示威，並趁機炮轟共和黨；但共和黨反指示威挑起「階級戰爭」，斥奧巴馬政府故意支持示威「轉移視線」。
「佔領華爾街」行動日益壯大，在運動「發祥地」紐約，由於集會者愈來愈多，原來大本營自由廣場水泄不通，示威發起組織表示有需要組織另一個「人民大會」大本營。奧巴馬上周表示，理解「佔領華爾街」示威者對金融系統運作的不滿與憤怒，並藉機批評共和黨屢次阻撓金融改革。但眾議院民主黨領袖佩洛西（Nancy Pelosi）周末則明確表示支持示威者，表示支持「佔領」運動擴展全國，認為可向金融界及建制表明必須改革。她藉機批評共和黨擬阻撓奧巴馬推行的 4470億美元製造就業法案，妨礙復蘇。
示威者憂政黨騎劫抗爭
選民冷淡本是民主黨明年總統大選一大阻力，但有分析相信，「佔領華爾街」會一如茶黨幫助共和黨選情一樣，刺激民主黨明年選情。副總統拜登上周亦稱，「佔領華爾街」跟茶黨有很多雷同之處。諾貝爾經濟學獎得主克魯明（Paul Krugman）亦對運動表示支持，「經過漫長等待，我們可能得見一場民眾運動冒起，而且不像茶黨，他們向正確的對象發怒」。
但共和黨人則猛烈批評。紐約眾議院議員彼德．金（Peter King）批評示威「可恥」，奧巴馬支持行動的言論「不負責任」。共和黨總統參選人亦批評示威，參選人凱恩（Hermen Cain）更指示威者不應將自己的失敗怪罪於獲得成功的金融界，反而應當自省。熱門羅姆尼（Mitt Romney）更形容示威是旨在分化美國的「階級戰爭」。雖然民主黨政客支持，但示威者並不買帳。西雅圖示威者Ted Lang稱，今次示威跟茶黨相似，但茶黨最後被右翼政客「騎劫」，他不希望「佔領華爾街」被民主黨騎劫」。
美民40年來最憎金融業
紐約市長彭博在每周電台廣播中，指摘示威「試圖破壞這個城市的就業」，無建設性。對於公共機構工會參與示威，他說﹕「他們的薪水正正來自他們要詆譭的人所交的稅」。美國史丹福大學社會學博士候選人歐文斯（Lindsay A. Owens）發表研究，指出現時美國人對金融業界的憎惡度是40年來最高。她指出，過去美國人因相信社會規則公平，較接受精英制度，少發生社會運動。但隨覑華爾街以不當手法謀利的現象曝光，令民眾感覺制度不公平，加上經濟差，民眾對華爾街態度大變，上街抗爭。
（有線新聞網絡/路透社）
2011年10月9日 星期日
樓市步入寒冬 房產股好快燶
好多人說, 要投資物業, 不如投資地產股或REITs, 不過本人一路都在說, 有實力的唔曬點借錢的人可以投資物業收租好過買股票 ! 自己的REIT組合可以控制手上借貸, 但買人地的REIT, 就係買人地的負債, 可以是無底深潭 !
蘋果日報全文
港股風雨飄搖時，樓市亦悄悄步入寒冬。北水乾塘、按息抽升，一二手成交全線癱瘓，地產代理日曬雨淋爭客，幾個月都未必開到一張單，真係有苦自己知。特首曾 蔭權本周三將公佈任內最後一份施政報告，那些年，我們一起住過的居屋將會復建，住宅供應有增無減，地皮自動波狂推，樓市想有運行都幾難。現在買地產股、收 租股抑或 REITs，無異於摸頂買樓，肯定輸鑊甘！
蘋果日報全文
港股風雨飄搖時，樓市亦悄悄步入寒冬。北水乾塘、按息抽升，一二手成交全線癱瘓，地產代理日曬雨淋爭客，幾個月都未必開到一張單，真係有苦自己知。特首曾 蔭權本周三將公佈任內最後一份施政報告，那些年，我們一起住過的居屋將會復建，住宅供應有增無減，地皮自動波狂推，樓市想有運行都幾難。現在買地產股、收 租股抑或 REITs，無異於摸頂買樓，肯定輸鑊甘！
歐盟通牒：10天內齊救銀行
風暴沒過, 大家須小心啦 !
文匯報
歐債危機未解，市場焦點由希臘轉移到歐洲銀行業的歐債風險敞口問 題。歐洲國家忙於搶救本土銀行之際，歐盟執行委員會前日發出「最後通牒」，給各國政府10天時間協調出共同行動計劃，讓遭受歐元區債務危機重創的各銀行， 重新調整資金結構。另一邊廂，法德首腦今日將舉行峰會，以求彌合為歐洲銀行資本重組提供資金的分歧。
文匯報
歐債危機未解，市場焦點由希臘轉移到歐洲銀行業的歐債風險敞口問 題。歐洲國家忙於搶救本土銀行之際，歐盟執行委員會前日發出「最後通牒」，給各國政府10天時間協調出共同行動計劃，讓遭受歐元區債務危機重創的各銀行， 重新調整資金結構。另一邊廂，法德首腦今日將舉行峰會，以求彌合為歐洲銀行資本重組提供資金的分歧。
歐盟訂出這個最後期限，對各國政府施加壓力。歐盟領袖本月17至18日在布魯塞爾開會，屆時他們 必須就多項計劃達成共識，以處理希臘違約憂慮引爆的信貸危機；他們同時必須共同合作，以避免為各國援助本國銀行而爆發爭吵。會議結束後，歐盟執委會將在 「數天內」提出指導方針，供各國遵守。
料需2萬億助陣
在德國總理默克爾日前的支持講話力挺下，歐盟消息人士說，執委會明日將批准新一輪各國援助本國銀行 的管理規則，之後將讓各國有一周時間，與倫敦的歐洲銀行管理局(EBA)共同擬定計劃。EBA將嘗試估計，要將歐洲銀行業穩定下來需要多少經費。國際貨幣 基金組織(IMF)暗示約需1,000億至2,000億歐元(約1.04萬億至2.08萬億港元)。
然而，默克爾認為財困銀行須先向投資者尋求融資，然後才求助國家及歐洲；政府亦應先動用自己的資 源，之後才能求助EFSF。法國則據稱希望通過公共資金穩住銀行業，一個國家投資基金更已訂立計劃，拯救法國和比利時合資銀行德克夏。有外交人士更指，法 國擔心喪失AAA最高評級，故希望由歐洲金融穩定措施(EFSF)注資。
法銀行業傳最傷
外界普遍認為，法國銀行業對希、意和西班牙等財困國的債務敞口最大，歐元區領袖擔心，倘若其中一個財困國違約，不但為歐洲銀行業帶來災難，更會重演2008年雷曼兄弟倒閉後的信貸緊縮。
今日在柏林的會議，默克爾和法國總統薩科齊將尋求化解分歧，不管是使用EFSF，或是在國家層面用納稅人金錢，就像2008年美國信貸緊縮時一樣。
■路透社/綜合外電消息/英國《金融時報》
九旬婦藏到忘 百萬鈔票發霉
紙幣和金銀幣的分別 !
文匯報
香港文匯報訊 據台灣《聯合報》報道，台灣一位90多歲李姓阿嬤不習慣把錢寄存銀行，兩年前把一捆百萬元（新台幣，下同）鈔票藏放在櫥櫃底下，結果忘了，家人日前打掃時發現，但成捆鈔票已發霉難辨，7日上午送新竹縣調查站請求鑒定。
文匯報
香港文匯報訊 據台灣《聯合報》報道，台灣一位90多歲李姓阿嬤不習慣把錢寄存銀行，兩年前把一捆百萬元（新台幣，下同）鈔票藏放在櫥櫃底下，結果忘了，家人日前打掃時發現，但成捆鈔票已發霉難辨，7日上午送新竹縣調查站請求鑒定。
李姓阿嬤沒有銀行賬戶，認為「放在身邊最安全」，但因年事已高，經常記不得放在哪裡。家人表示，最近打掃家裡在櫥櫃底下發現這捆鈔票，因發霉了，鈔票全黏成一塊，估計至少放了兩年。
家人表示，他們跑了幾家銀行請求兌換新鈔，銀行都不受理。新竹縣調查站初步檢視，成捆鈔票雖然發霉，但大致完整，還可看出塑料捆鈔帶有「渣打銀行」字樣。
"Rats" and "black mouths" gnaw at China stocks
呢樣是學國際大鱷的手段, 在股價低迷時收集, 而左手交右手炒高股價後散貨, 死就跟風的散戶, 錢就落大鱷袋 ! 中國人呢次只是以牙還牙, 以眼還眼 ! 不過睇來呢個遊戲遲早玩完, 所以聰明的你會遠離股市 !
www.reuters.com
By Jason Subler
SHANGHAI | Thu Sep 29, 2011 9:39am EDT
SHANGHAI (Reuters) - Even before China's great stock market bull run of 2006-2007, Wang Jianzhong had become known as China's "god of stocks" for his prescient picks.
Such was his influence at the market's peak that reports by his company, Beijing Shoufang Investment Consulting, republished in dozens of influential newspapers and websites, were themselves often cited as a reason for a particular share price rising.
By late 2006, it was generally expected that whichever companies Wang recommended in his columns would be among the biggest gainers the next trading day in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets.
Wang knew it as well, and put that knowledge to use.
Between January 2007 and May 2008, Wang bought shares in 38 companies, wrote reports on them, and then unloaded the stocks after his recommendations helped lift their share prices.
It was a lucrative ramping scheme. In 55 separate transactions during that time, Wang earned 125 million yuan ($19.5 million), according to regulators.
The financial sleight of hand has now given him the dubious distinction of being China's first convicted stock market manipulator. He was sentenced in August to seven years in prison and fined 125 million yuan, on top of having illicit earnings of the same amount confiscated.
While his case went hardly noticed in the Western media, Wang is now known as China's most famous "black mouth" -- a Chinese expression for a commentator who manipulates the market by talking up companies in which they have taken stakes.
Wang's case is just one high-profile example of widespread wrongdoing in China's capital markets, according to eight industry insiders interviewed by Reuters. The shady practices not only hurt millions of retail investors but create challenges for the foreign money managers and investment banks that invest their clients' cash in mainland Chinese equities.
Employees of Chinese brokerages, fund managers, and company executives are among those engaged in illicit activities, ranging from falsifying numbers on listing prospectuses to insider trading, the industry sources said.
These disclosures about how the markets are being manipulated follow a Reuters investigation into accounting fraud at Chinese companies listed in North American exchanges.
The accounting scandals exposed a subculture of bookkeeping shenanigans in Chinese finance, underscoring the dark side to the explosive growth of China's nascent financial markets and the risks to investors entering them.
FALSE IPO DATA
One of the most common of the illegal stock trading practices is including false figures for revenue and other data on IPO prospectuses, said one senior manager with a brokerage firm based in eastern China.
"It's just a bunch of bosses meeting up and filling in the forms. 'What kind of price do you want? We'll get you that price,'" said the source, who asked not to be identified for fear of repercussions.
"Often it's because someone's kid is doing a certain business, so if I help him with an IPO now, he might help me with something else down the road."
Another practice involves collusion between company executives and major institutional investors. They get together ahead of a planned secondary share offering, and agree to ensure the company's share price performs well enough to attract demand for the offering.
The investors then dump the shares after the offering when the share price has reached a high enough level. Along the way, commentators help talk up the stock among retail investors amid well-timed releases of positive news on the company, said another industry source, again on condition of anonymity.
"We'll set it up for them. Everyone will get together in a room and work out a schedule," the source said. "We'll know when the stock will reach a certain point, and set a target for when those involved will aim to get out."
The source declined to give names of particular companies affected by such practices for fear of incriminating his firm. But it is not uncommon to see share prices of some listed companies, especially smaller firms listed in the southern boomtown of Shenzhen, experience massive run-ups followed by precipitous falls after a secondary offering.
To be sure, that type of scheme is facilitated by the herd mentality of China's retail investors, who account for some two-thirds of stock market turnover and are known to trade on very short-term horizons based less on fundamentals than on daily rumors about policy support for certain sectors or deals by individual companies.
The sheer amount of effort the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has devoted to combating the problem of insider trading is one indication of the extent of the problem.
The CSRC has in the past year published more than half a dozen statements about insider trading on its website, in addition to holding symposiums on the issue, after China's cabinet ordered a crackdown late last year.
The CSRC declined repeated requests for comment. But the regulator said in a statement on its website (www.csrc.gov.cn)
this month that it had taken on 83 new cases of market malpractice in the first half of this year, including 45 cases of insider trading.
"In the second half, with changes happening in market conditions and uncertainty in the external environment, illegal activities will take on new forms," CSRC warned in the statement. The regulator said "it will continue to prioritize the crackdown on insider training ... 'rat trading' and illegal information disclosure."
RATS' NESTS
The misuse of private trading accounts by mutual fund managers is a practice, which like that of "black mouths," is common enough to have been given a colorful nickname in Chinese: "rat trading."
The rats are fund managers who buy securities in their own personal trading account ahead of large purchases of the same security by their fund house, hoping to profit from a rise in the share price from their firm's larger transactions.
The CSRC has been especially cracking down on this practice because it is holding back the development of the mutual fund industry. In one illustrative case, the regulator meted out punishment to Huang Lin, former money manager at Franklin Templeton Sealand Fund Management Co in Shanghai.
Using an account in an associate's name, Huang, 32, bought or sold stocks from May 2007 to July 2008 ahead of transactions in the same stocks by the mutual fund he managed, the CSRC said.
Ironically, the 15 illegal transactions, which involved eight stocks, including Ningbo Huaxiang Electronics and Huafa Industrial, resulted in a loss for Huang of 54,000 yuan, according to the watchdog, which said it collected evidence from trading and chatroom records.
The regulator barred him from working in the fund industry and fined him 300,000 yuan.
In the mutual fund industry, perhaps more than anywhere else, investor distrust is holding it back. The fund industry's assets under management have fallen steadily, to the point their equity holdings now account for only 19 percent of China's total trade able share capitalization, down from a third in 2007, according to Huatai United Securities.
"I suspect 'rat trading' has been quite rampant in the industry and only a fraction of such malpractices have been caught," said Zhang Haochuan, head of research at fund consultancy Z-Ben Advisors. "This has certainly hurt the industry's growth."
The reluctance of small retail investors to entrust their cash with professional money managers has, in turn, helped perpetuate a speculative investment culture that almost guarantees a volatile market, with amateurs engaged in herd-like day trading.
With distrustful investors avoiding mutual funds, the market is starved of stable long-term stock investments, the type that has helped support more mature markets.
That is at least one reason why China's stocks have not performed in line with record corporate profits and booming economic growth, which has averaged in the double digits for most of the last decade, analysts say.
The Shanghai Composite Index fell 14 percent in 2010, when it was one of the world's worst performers despite the more than 10 percent growth in the economy. It is down another 14 percent so far this year.
CAUGHT IN OWN TRAP
Sometimes the rats get caught in their own trap.
In one example, real estate executive Qing Shaoqiu bought more than a million shares in the company he chaired, Shanghai Xingye Resources Holdings, just hours ahead of a share suspension, betting a merger his company was planning to announce would lead to a jump in share price.
It ended up being scrapped due to adverse market conditions, leading to sharp falls in Xingye's share price. When trading resumed, Qing was stuck with a 2 million yuan loss.
Not only that, last November the CSRC fined Qing, now 40, 200,000 yuan for insider trading, barred him for life from China's capital markets and banned from serving as an executive on any listed company for five years.
Such practices pose huge headaches for the 116 foreign institutions allowed to trade on China's equity and bond markets through the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) program.
Smaller companies can be especially challenging, many of them listed on the small- and medium-sized enterprise board and Nasdaq-style "innovation board" in Shenzhen, bordering Hong Kong. Their share prices are easier to influence by virtue of their smaller size, analysts say.
The CSRC has strict reporting requirements for the more than 2,200 companies listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen, but many analysts question the quality of the data, especially that of the smaller companies.
"You have some pretty creative accounting techniques that Chinese companies often use," said Kent Kedl, managing director of Greater China and North Asia with consultancy Control Risks.
"Some will have one set of books internally, one set of books for the tax authorities, and another one to potentially show investors. It's a pretty common thing."
That makes it essential for foreign investors to have an on-the-ground presence to oversee investment targets, said Ching Shao, chief executive and co-founder of the SMC China Fund in Shanghai.
"You really need to do your own due diligence," she said. "Not only talking to the companies, but going to talk to their competitors, their enemies, their suppliers -- the people who conduct business with them," she said. "That's really the very reliable source."
TOUGHER PENALTIES
Companies have gone to unusual lengths to corner any "rat traders."
"When you come in at 8:30 in the morning, you hand over your mobile phone. Then from the time you walk into your office to the time you sit down at your workstation, you're on camera," one fund industry source said.
"Once you log in, you're getting screen shots of your desktop every three or seven seconds. But what's the reality? Everybody's got three mobile phones because their line is recorded, so they use their mobile phones. And it happens a lot."
The problem is part of a much larger China syndrome. Whether it's food safety or rampant counterfeiting, those who want to cheat or cut corners will usually find a way around any restrictions, because enforcement resources are so woefully inadequate.
Industry participants have called for stiffer penalties for offences, and some point to the increasing trend of criminal penalties, including jail terms such as Wang's, as a sign of progress.
In many ways, the problems with China's markets are growing pains. The stock markets were established just over 20 years ago, and some of the problems of manipulation and insider trading that have cropped up also plagued more developed markets, especially when they were at a similar stage of development.
FAIR PLACE TO GAMBLE
Many retail investors shrug off the inherent disadvantage they face, with so many insiders privy to so much information that they are not. That includes the chronic leaking of important economic data, prompting the statistics agency to crack down on the practice this year.
"This market isn't healthy, it isn't fair, but what can I do?" said Ms. Xu, a 56-year-old retired worker, monitoring the prices of shares she had bought at a brokerage in the eastern city of Hefei, in Anhui province.
"I'm retired, and don't have much else to do. At least this way I can come here every day, have something to do, and the chance of making a little money," she said, surrounded by other retail investors, many of whom passed the time by knitting sweaters and playing cards.
While some individual investors might be resigned toward the market manipulations, the Chinese government itself has much higher expectations, announcing plans to turn Shanghai into a global financial center by 2020.
"Things have actually been improving quite a lot, especially for larger enterprises," said Geng Xiao, an economist who formerly worked for the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission and is now director of research for the Fung Global Institute in Hong Kong.
But, he added, regulators need to do more to stamp out insider trading and other market malpractices. They need to provide better oversight, particularly of smaller companies, if they hope to make China's capital markets serve their ultimate function of channeling investment to the most deserving ends.
They will never be able to erase the rambling-gambling nature of China's markets, he said.
"I'm not against it being a casino, because it is in a way," he said. "But it has to be a fair, efficient casino. And then you can use that to diversify risk and allow people to help the real sector."
www.reuters.com
By Jason Subler
SHANGHAI | Thu Sep 29, 2011 9:39am EDT
SHANGHAI (Reuters) - Even before China's great stock market bull run of 2006-2007, Wang Jianzhong had become known as China's "god of stocks" for his prescient picks.
Such was his influence at the market's peak that reports by his company, Beijing Shoufang Investment Consulting, republished in dozens of influential newspapers and websites, were themselves often cited as a reason for a particular share price rising.
By late 2006, it was generally expected that whichever companies Wang recommended in his columns would be among the biggest gainers the next trading day in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets.
Wang knew it as well, and put that knowledge to use.
Between January 2007 and May 2008, Wang bought shares in 38 companies, wrote reports on them, and then unloaded the stocks after his recommendations helped lift their share prices.
It was a lucrative ramping scheme. In 55 separate transactions during that time, Wang earned 125 million yuan ($19.5 million), according to regulators.
The financial sleight of hand has now given him the dubious distinction of being China's first convicted stock market manipulator. He was sentenced in August to seven years in prison and fined 125 million yuan, on top of having illicit earnings of the same amount confiscated.
While his case went hardly noticed in the Western media, Wang is now known as China's most famous "black mouth" -- a Chinese expression for a commentator who manipulates the market by talking up companies in which they have taken stakes.
Wang's case is just one high-profile example of widespread wrongdoing in China's capital markets, according to eight industry insiders interviewed by Reuters. The shady practices not only hurt millions of retail investors but create challenges for the foreign money managers and investment banks that invest their clients' cash in mainland Chinese equities.
Employees of Chinese brokerages, fund managers, and company executives are among those engaged in illicit activities, ranging from falsifying numbers on listing prospectuses to insider trading, the industry sources said.
These disclosures about how the markets are being manipulated follow a Reuters investigation into accounting fraud at Chinese companies listed in North American exchanges.
The accounting scandals exposed a subculture of bookkeeping shenanigans in Chinese finance, underscoring the dark side to the explosive growth of China's nascent financial markets and the risks to investors entering them.
FALSE IPO DATA
One of the most common of the illegal stock trading practices is including false figures for revenue and other data on IPO prospectuses, said one senior manager with a brokerage firm based in eastern China.
"It's just a bunch of bosses meeting up and filling in the forms. 'What kind of price do you want? We'll get you that price,'" said the source, who asked not to be identified for fear of repercussions.
"Often it's because someone's kid is doing a certain business, so if I help him with an IPO now, he might help me with something else down the road."
Another practice involves collusion between company executives and major institutional investors. They get together ahead of a planned secondary share offering, and agree to ensure the company's share price performs well enough to attract demand for the offering.
The investors then dump the shares after the offering when the share price has reached a high enough level. Along the way, commentators help talk up the stock among retail investors amid well-timed releases of positive news on the company, said another industry source, again on condition of anonymity.
"We'll set it up for them. Everyone will get together in a room and work out a schedule," the source said. "We'll know when the stock will reach a certain point, and set a target for when those involved will aim to get out."
The source declined to give names of particular companies affected by such practices for fear of incriminating his firm. But it is not uncommon to see share prices of some listed companies, especially smaller firms listed in the southern boomtown of Shenzhen, experience massive run-ups followed by precipitous falls after a secondary offering.
To be sure, that type of scheme is facilitated by the herd mentality of China's retail investors, who account for some two-thirds of stock market turnover and are known to trade on very short-term horizons based less on fundamentals than on daily rumors about policy support for certain sectors or deals by individual companies.
The sheer amount of effort the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has devoted to combating the problem of insider trading is one indication of the extent of the problem.
The CSRC has in the past year published more than half a dozen statements about insider trading on its website, in addition to holding symposiums on the issue, after China's cabinet ordered a crackdown late last year.
The CSRC declined repeated requests for comment. But the regulator said in a statement on its website (www.csrc.gov.cn)
this month that it had taken on 83 new cases of market malpractice in the first half of this year, including 45 cases of insider trading.
"In the second half, with changes happening in market conditions and uncertainty in the external environment, illegal activities will take on new forms," CSRC warned in the statement. The regulator said "it will continue to prioritize the crackdown on insider training ... 'rat trading' and illegal information disclosure."
RATS' NESTS
The misuse of private trading accounts by mutual fund managers is a practice, which like that of "black mouths," is common enough to have been given a colorful nickname in Chinese: "rat trading."
The rats are fund managers who buy securities in their own personal trading account ahead of large purchases of the same security by their fund house, hoping to profit from a rise in the share price from their firm's larger transactions.
The CSRC has been especially cracking down on this practice because it is holding back the development of the mutual fund industry. In one illustrative case, the regulator meted out punishment to Huang Lin, former money manager at Franklin Templeton Sealand Fund Management Co in Shanghai.
Using an account in an associate's name, Huang, 32, bought or sold stocks from May 2007 to July 2008 ahead of transactions in the same stocks by the mutual fund he managed, the CSRC said.
Ironically, the 15 illegal transactions, which involved eight stocks, including Ningbo Huaxiang Electronics and Huafa Industrial, resulted in a loss for Huang of 54,000 yuan, according to the watchdog, which said it collected evidence from trading and chatroom records.
The regulator barred him from working in the fund industry and fined him 300,000 yuan.
In the mutual fund industry, perhaps more than anywhere else, investor distrust is holding it back. The fund industry's assets under management have fallen steadily, to the point their equity holdings now account for only 19 percent of China's total trade able share capitalization, down from a third in 2007, according to Huatai United Securities.
"I suspect 'rat trading' has been quite rampant in the industry and only a fraction of such malpractices have been caught," said Zhang Haochuan, head of research at fund consultancy Z-Ben Advisors. "This has certainly hurt the industry's growth."
The reluctance of small retail investors to entrust their cash with professional money managers has, in turn, helped perpetuate a speculative investment culture that almost guarantees a volatile market, with amateurs engaged in herd-like day trading.
With distrustful investors avoiding mutual funds, the market is starved of stable long-term stock investments, the type that has helped support more mature markets.
That is at least one reason why China's stocks have not performed in line with record corporate profits and booming economic growth, which has averaged in the double digits for most of the last decade, analysts say.
The Shanghai Composite Index fell 14 percent in 2010, when it was one of the world's worst performers despite the more than 10 percent growth in the economy. It is down another 14 percent so far this year.
CAUGHT IN OWN TRAP
Sometimes the rats get caught in their own trap.
In one example, real estate executive Qing Shaoqiu bought more than a million shares in the company he chaired, Shanghai Xingye Resources Holdings, just hours ahead of a share suspension, betting a merger his company was planning to announce would lead to a jump in share price.
It ended up being scrapped due to adverse market conditions, leading to sharp falls in Xingye's share price. When trading resumed, Qing was stuck with a 2 million yuan loss.
Not only that, last November the CSRC fined Qing, now 40, 200,000 yuan for insider trading, barred him for life from China's capital markets and banned from serving as an executive on any listed company for five years.
Such practices pose huge headaches for the 116 foreign institutions allowed to trade on China's equity and bond markets through the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) program.
Smaller companies can be especially challenging, many of them listed on the small- and medium-sized enterprise board and Nasdaq-style "innovation board" in Shenzhen, bordering Hong Kong. Their share prices are easier to influence by virtue of their smaller size, analysts say.
The CSRC has strict reporting requirements for the more than 2,200 companies listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen, but many analysts question the quality of the data, especially that of the smaller companies.
"You have some pretty creative accounting techniques that Chinese companies often use," said Kent Kedl, managing director of Greater China and North Asia with consultancy Control Risks.
"Some will have one set of books internally, one set of books for the tax authorities, and another one to potentially show investors. It's a pretty common thing."
That makes it essential for foreign investors to have an on-the-ground presence to oversee investment targets, said Ching Shao, chief executive and co-founder of the SMC China Fund in Shanghai.
"You really need to do your own due diligence," she said. "Not only talking to the companies, but going to talk to their competitors, their enemies, their suppliers -- the people who conduct business with them," she said. "That's really the very reliable source."
TOUGHER PENALTIES
Companies have gone to unusual lengths to corner any "rat traders."
"When you come in at 8:30 in the morning, you hand over your mobile phone. Then from the time you walk into your office to the time you sit down at your workstation, you're on camera," one fund industry source said.
"Once you log in, you're getting screen shots of your desktop every three or seven seconds. But what's the reality? Everybody's got three mobile phones because their line is recorded, so they use their mobile phones. And it happens a lot."
The problem is part of a much larger China syndrome. Whether it's food safety or rampant counterfeiting, those who want to cheat or cut corners will usually find a way around any restrictions, because enforcement resources are so woefully inadequate.
Industry participants have called for stiffer penalties for offences, and some point to the increasing trend of criminal penalties, including jail terms such as Wang's, as a sign of progress.
In many ways, the problems with China's markets are growing pains. The stock markets were established just over 20 years ago, and some of the problems of manipulation and insider trading that have cropped up also plagued more developed markets, especially when they were at a similar stage of development.
FAIR PLACE TO GAMBLE
Many retail investors shrug off the inherent disadvantage they face, with so many insiders privy to so much information that they are not. That includes the chronic leaking of important economic data, prompting the statistics agency to crack down on the practice this year.
"This market isn't healthy, it isn't fair, but what can I do?" said Ms. Xu, a 56-year-old retired worker, monitoring the prices of shares she had bought at a brokerage in the eastern city of Hefei, in Anhui province.
"I'm retired, and don't have much else to do. At least this way I can come here every day, have something to do, and the chance of making a little money," she said, surrounded by other retail investors, many of whom passed the time by knitting sweaters and playing cards.
While some individual investors might be resigned toward the market manipulations, the Chinese government itself has much higher expectations, announcing plans to turn Shanghai into a global financial center by 2020.
"Things have actually been improving quite a lot, especially for larger enterprises," said Geng Xiao, an economist who formerly worked for the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission and is now director of research for the Fung Global Institute in Hong Kong.
But, he added, regulators need to do more to stamp out insider trading and other market malpractices. They need to provide better oversight, particularly of smaller companies, if they hope to make China's capital markets serve their ultimate function of channeling investment to the most deserving ends.
They will never be able to erase the rambling-gambling nature of China's markets, he said.
"I'm not against it being a casino, because it is in a way," he said. "But it has to be a fair, efficient casino. And then you can use that to diversify risk and allow people to help the real sector."
2011年10月7日 星期五
Top 5 Ways to Avoid Fake Coins on eBay
無咗誠信, 無咗生意 !
呃人呃得一兩次, 之後唔曬再有生意啦, 還連累成個中國人的社會 !
coins.about.com
呃人呃得一兩次, 之後唔曬再有生意啦, 還連累成個中國人的社會 !
coins.about.com
Thousands of fake coins are sold every month on eBay. If coin collectors would follow these five simple steps, not only would they not get saddled with fakes, they'd help put the counterfeiters out of business!
Never Buy Coins From Chinese Sellers
When you buy coins, look to see where the person is shipping the coin from. If it is China or Hong Kong, do not bid! No matter how appealing the coin looks, no matter how great a deal you think you are getting, no matter how good the sales pitch is, do not buy any coins from China or Hong Kong based sellers. Following this one guideline will prevent you from becoming a victim 90% of the time, since 90% of all fake coins on eBay come from Chinese sellers.
印銀紙不能解決問題
只是推遲去面對問題, 希望得多些時間而問題會自行解決 !
以前有人說匯豐只值16蚊我絕對信, 只是銀行後來改入數方式, 唔再即市計毒資產的價值, 所以才可以贏返信心, 而盤數靚返, 不過手上毒資產還在, 終要在結算日去計數 ! 銀行就希望在呢幾年中可以做多些生意賺多些錢去面對 !
一日毒資產沒消除, 一日唔好信困境已過去 !
本人相信印銀紙將來一定會帶來嚴重的通脹, 所以堅持持有一些實金實銀為保護自己的購買力 !
以前有人說匯豐只值16蚊我絕對信, 只是銀行後來改入數方式, 唔再即市計毒資產的價值, 所以才可以贏返信心, 而盤數靚返, 不過手上毒資產還在, 終要在結算日去計數 ! 銀行就希望在呢幾年中可以做多些生意賺多些錢去面對 !
一日毒資產沒消除, 一日唔好信困境已過去 !
本人相信印銀紙將來一定會帶來嚴重的通脹, 所以堅持持有一些實金實銀為保護自己的購買力 !
2011年10月6日 星期四
2011年10月5日 星期三
股災燃起新火頭 歐洲銀行股全線急挫
銀行唔掂, 股市又點會好呢 ?
蘋果日報全文
【本報綜合報道】希臘再被指無力還債，令一眾持有希臘債券的歐洲銀行不論規模大小都風聲鶴唳。昨有指 Dexia、法巴及法興等銀行需為希臘債多撇賬兩倍，歐洲銀行股價全線勁挫；有消息人士更指，不排除 Dexia銀行最終或要進行分拆，將有毒資產剝離。
比利時一哥 Dexia 美債市大戶
Dexia SA於 1996年由法資銀行 Credit Local de France及比利時銀行 Credit Communal de Belgique SA合併組成，為目前比利時按資產計最大的銀行，多年來一直向法國及比利時提供最多借貸的機構。於 08年雷曼風暴中，法國及比利時政府曾聯手以 30億歐元入股 Dexia，另再加上其股東提供的額外 30億歐元才能避過倒閉一劫。雖然 Dexia於 2010年 6月已開始停止發行政府支持的債券，不過，截至上月底銀行的總負債額仍高達 290億歐元，而且 Dexia同時於美國政府債券市場亦佔有很大比重，一旦 Dexia破產，將會令其發行的債券頓變廢紙，對美國銀行業將會造成嚴重打擊。
蘋果日報全文
【本報綜合報道】希臘再被指無力還債，令一眾持有希臘債券的歐洲銀行不論規模大小都風聲鶴唳。昨有指 Dexia、法巴及法興等銀行需為希臘債多撇賬兩倍，歐洲銀行股價全線勁挫；有消息人士更指，不排除 Dexia銀行最終或要進行分拆，將有毒資產剝離。
比利時一哥 Dexia 美債市大戶
Dexia SA於 1996年由法資銀行 Credit Local de France及比利時銀行 Credit Communal de Belgique SA合併組成，為目前比利時按資產計最大的銀行，多年來一直向法國及比利時提供最多借貸的機構。於 08年雷曼風暴中，法國及比利時政府曾聯手以 30億歐元入股 Dexia，另再加上其股東提供的額外 30億歐元才能避過倒閉一劫。雖然 Dexia於 2010年 6月已開始停止發行政府支持的債券，不過，截至上月底銀行的總負債額仍高達 290億歐元，而且 Dexia同時於美國政府債券市場亦佔有很大比重，一旦 Dexia破產，將會令其發行的債券頓變廢紙，對美國銀行業將會造成嚴重打擊。
預期央行將減息 澳元下試92美仙
文匯報
澳元上周受制於99.85美仙附近阻力後，其走勢已迅速趨於偏弱，在先後跌穿97及96美仙水平後，更一度於 本周二反覆下滑至94.15美仙附近的1年來低位。由於澳洲央行於本周二宣布維持澳元利率不變後，卻暗示往後將可能有寬鬆其貨幣政策的傾向，因此市場已不 排除澳洲央行將有機會於今年第4季作出降息活動的情況下，澳元於周二時段的跌幅遂進一步向下擴大至94.15美仙水平。
澳元上周受制於99.85美仙附近阻力後，其走勢已迅速趨於偏弱，在先後跌穿97及96美仙水平後，更一度於 本周二反覆下滑至94.15美仙附近的1年來低位。由於澳洲央行於本周二宣布維持澳元利率不變後，卻暗示往後將可能有寬鬆其貨幣政策的傾向，因此市場已不 排除澳洲央行將有機會於今年第4季作出降息活動的情況下，澳元於周二時段的跌幅遂進一步向下擴大至94.15美仙水平。
另一方面，受到希臘已表示未能達到削赤目標的影響下，歐盟以及國際貨幣基金會於本月與希臘商討新 一輪的緊急救助貸款協議將可能會出現變數，因此投資者在憂慮希臘主權債務違約問題將可能會衝擊歐洲銀行業的情況下，高風險資產以及商品貨品已是持續遭遇到 沉重沽壓，該情況亦將會繼續不利於澳元的短期表現。
此外，市場在擔憂全球經濟將可能進一步放緩之下，紐約期油於本周二已反覆下滑至每桶76美元水 平，這亦對其他商品價格形成相應的下調壓力，所以澳元暫時將不容易往上作出較大幅的反彈，反而在部分投資者於現階段仍較為傾向逢高沽出商品貨幣的影響，預 期澳元將續有反覆下調空間。受到澳元兌日圓交叉匯價急挫至72.20附近的16個月以來低位的帶動下，預料澳元將反覆跌穿92.00美仙水平。
資金避險 金價呈強
市場在憂慮歐債危機將持續惡化的情況下，部分避險資金已進一步吸納黃金，而12月期金更一度於本周二向上反彈至1,681.50美元水平。預料現貨金價將暫時徘徊於1,600至1,700美元之間。
金匯錦囊
澳元：澳元將反覆跌穿92.00美仙水平。
金價：現貨金價將徘徊於1600至1700美元。
2011年10月4日 星期二
Bullion Coin and Proof Coin
上圖是Bullion Coin 或 Uncirculated Coin, 而下圖是 Proof Coin
lynncoins.com
"What is an un-circulated coin?"
Uncirculated means a coin has not had any wear, such as the wear a coin might experience when it is used in commerce. Handling a coin, as well as improperly storing a coin, can result in wear on the surface of the coin. This wear, even if very minor, will cause a coin to no longer grade uncirculated.
(Uncirculated Coin 不可有花痕, 而有花痕的新幣可以俾降級不可叫 Uncirculated)
What's a proof coin?
A newly minted proof coin is also Un-circulated, however it is the way it is made that causes a difference in appearance and qualifies it as a "proof". To understand this, let's look at how coins are made. Coins are produced when two dies strike a blank piece of metal with tremendous force. One die is engraved with the front (obverse) design for the coin. The other die has the back (reverse) coin design on it.
(Proof Coin 因為是用特別支術製造, 所以表面會滑如鏡, 而價格也會貴過 Bullion Coin. 因為Proof Coin 價格貴, 所以多數有禮盒和証書跟隨)