2010年5月8日 星期六

當無人叫股災時, 股災就來臨

在今年二月幾, 股市跌過去約 19486, 個個都以為大市調整完而續升浪, 所以好多人都買滿倉 ! 個個都說牛二回吐唔怕買貨等牛三來臨, 點知就挾個金融海嘯第二波在中間 !
我一早已說過, 市場是互動的, 當你以為經濟差唔敢買貨, 就升到你唔信, 而到你以為經濟轉好時飛身買貨, 就來個大調整收你貨 ! 好多人在研究什麼財務報表是多餘的 !
市場大鱷做的市, 你又點會睇透 ? 上一次亞洲金融風暴, 之後美國次按風暴, 呢次來個歐洲金融風暴, 大鱷實有辦法搵大錢 !
我已講過成十幾年 : 小魚兒, 只可以在大鱷身邊偷食, 但小心變大鱷點心 !


news.on.cc

【on.cc專訊】 「商品大王」羅傑斯表示,周四晚美國股市崩盤事件,不能歸咎於故障問題,「應該有人把這個紐交所絞死。」

羅傑斯說,這個號稱是全球資本體系、全球金融市場的中心,「你大概會認為,紐交所在今年可以解決像電子設備這樣簡單的事情。」但他警告,如果紐約證券交易所要保住其世界頂尖金融中心的聲譽,就應該解決導致華爾街加速拋售的故障問題。

他又說,市場是時候進行調整了,調整發生之時總是會有原因,市場已經連續13個月上漲,現在應稍作調整。「依我來看,這次調整本來應該更早就開始」。

9 則留言:

Kai 提到...

永遠都係跌市出錯盤, 又唔見買錯升10%俾散戶食?
我唔太相信咁大個盤唔需要double approval, 又或者無WARNING就可以直出街.

每次出現呢D野時, 往往就快見底 (但唔代表一定升返上去), 不過呢次感覺上出現得太早了 ~

andy 提到...

HI Lisa,

SO you are saying getting into 財務報表是多餘??

I think the other way, if the market falls, everything falls too. But those company with a sold 財務報表 climbs up faster and goes to higher price if the company makes a profit, good dividend payout and good expectation on future.

DOnt you agree??

Lisa 提到...

回 andy,
我寫個句個時已知會有人唔同意的啦 ! 我只是想說, 就算你點做功課, 睇完幾本厚厚的財務報告, 但買股的 timing 唔岩, 一個股災都可以打沉你的股票組合 !
長揸死牛派個 D 股票組合由 2007高峰後都無乜進展, 失咗好多賺錢機會 ! 如果分散用來買樓買金, 一早賺多 D 啦 ! 但我不否認, 如果 timing 岩, 股票是最賺錢的工具, 因為我 2009 從股票買賣得來的 profit 都有成六成幾 ! 不過我唔會貪, 因為我持股票唔會過流動資金的 15%, 因為股市波動同風險是好大 !

Andy 提到...

Dear Lisa,

I agreed timing is very important when buying stocks. Some stocks is highly potential buy the market gives them a too high expectation, therefore the price need a long time to reflect it.

I very think that person should read the financial statement before buying stock. NOt the whole book: but a basic fundamental of income statement, balance sheet and cash flow is the basic matter to understand when buying stock.

If you are thinking like a long term investment (5 years or more and you can hold on to any risks in the market), buy a potential company at anytime is ok. (of course, when the price is ok and the price is not over expected in the market).

Today, there are so much stocks that the market give a so high expectation that attracts people to buy it. WHen the company financial statement isnt going right, the prices drop to a point it never reaches back.

So i suggest people buy stock to read the financial statement, at least for the stock you buy. With a good fundmental basic for a company, the price drops when the market drops. But that company price will go back up and to a higher point.

Dont you agree?

Lisa 提到...

回 Andy,
我本人唔會曬時間在讀財務報告, 因為我無意去搵將來的十倍股; 自知無呢個能力, 而也唔會幻想在股市發達, 只賺少少閒錢就可以啦 ! 我買 883是因為睇好將來的油價, 不過驚個公司失驚咁做錯誤決定, 所以也唔會持太多股份 ! 一間公司幾時變質, 無人會知 !
我買金礦股是因為睇好金價的走勢 ! 當初買瑞金, 因為是新股, 可以炒一炒, 後來轉紫金, 因為紫金是國企, 唔怕會破產 ! 幾驚瑞金炒完玩財技 ! 因為我做過股票經紀, 所以知莊家點用財技搵散戶的錢 !
我買 323 因為睇將來通漲會升, 所以網鐵也會起價, 雖然依家鋼鐵過剩 !
我唔沽出手上 525 IPO 貨, 是因為 525 是公用股, 睇來無咁易破產 !
呢 D 就係我選股票的方法 !

andy 提到...

Dear Lisa,

Nice to talk to you about the investment tactics.

I dont think investment can become millinoare too, but it is a good way to expand your wealth and better yet, a good and stable company provide good dividend for those retire people.

In my mind, I think 883 is a company can do for long. I also agree that one should never hold 100% of their porfolio because you never know the company change.

For me, I think 1398, 993 and 3398 can be also do for long. As Chinese people getting rich and wealthy, their demand for wealth management is so strong that if each person gives 500CNY monthly to do their financial management, that is lot of expansion. Not including other needs for financial need such as borrowing money for houses, business loans and car loans.

Lisa 提到...

回 Andy,
點解我唔買銀行和保險股 ?
因為金融海嘯後, 我對金融體系有保留, 見到 Bear Sterns, 雷曼和 AIG 的結果, 我也把 2800 沽掉了, 因為 2800 有好多金融股 ! 除非金融體系回返正常, 而唔係大鱷搵食的地方 ! 就係咁簡單 ! 我手上個少少實金和實銀, 一定會長揸, 預咗留俾下一代 ! 呢樣才是我真正的價值投值, 物業都係 !

andy 提到...

Agreed,

For those american financial companies, most of them are not really "banking" industry instead they are playing a game in the market so they could have a profit.

It is one of the reason i dislike HSBC and SC because they can be a target for shorting.

I know nothing is guarantee safe, but for those chinese banks, their biggest shareholder is chinese government. It gives me a better secure in this case.

Lisa 提到...

回Andy,
我覺已有太多散戶持有銀行和保險股, 因為我最怕人迫, 所以唔會買住 !
買股最能賺到錢是 timing, 所以要等時機 :)
要記住, 貨在散戶手是炒唔起的 !