睇來大鱷想金價跌, 人民幣升值 !
蘋果日報
【本報綜合報道】黃金價格連續九年向上，並屢創新高，不少專家深信金市前景非常秀麗，國際著名投資者索羅斯遂警告，全球低息環境孕育不少資產泡沫，當中黃金市場更會是當中的「終極泡沫」。
面對各國不斷印銀紙救市，市場擔心通脹會捲土重來，加上對政府債券信心動搖，刺激金價過去一年狂飆 40%，上月更升至每盎斯 1225美元新高。索羅斯於瑞士舉辦的世界經濟論壇時警告，在大量熱錢流入下，資產泡沫不斷形成，當中最大的泡沫是黃金，意味金市泡沫終會爆破。
分析員認為，儘管金價已從上月高位回落約 11%，但走勢仍處於 1年升勢線上，除非跌穿 200天移動平均線，否則近期回落只是升市調整，亦是趁低入市機會。金價昨低見每盎斯 1081.2美元，下跌 6.7美元。商品大王羅杰斯早前則表示，黃金不存在泡沫，金價於今年可突破 2000美元。
索羅斯又指各國未完全步出衰退，有必要推出更多政策支持增長，假如過早退市、加稅或縮減開支，明年或之後出現「雙底」衰退的可能性勢增。
他贊成美國總統奧巴馬限制銀行進行高風險投機活動的建議，但認為方案未夠完善，因為沒有解決銀行「大得不能倒下」的問題。此外，他認為華府向銀行徵費時機未成熟，原因是銀行業未完全脫困，貿然徵稅與救市方針背道而馳。
索羅斯又指，各國在金融及貿易方面嚴重失衡，當中以中國和美國情況較嚴峻，若不妥善處理，可能會引發新的資產泡沫，因此呼籲中國立即容許人民幣兌美元再升值，更直言人民幣的升值壓力已越來越大。
2010年1月29日 星期五
2010年1月27日 星期三
伯南克料可留任 聯儲局難免削權
文匯報
美國參議院料最快周四表決聯儲局主席伯南克的連任提案，雖然現在看來，他應可有驚無險獲得連任，但他領導的聯儲局將面對被削權的另一場危機。這場連任風波亦折射出一場美國政經風雲：總統奧巴馬和民主黨在民意劣勢下，轉行民粹路線，結果誘發一場白宮與商界的角力，很可能為年底國會中期選舉增添更多變數。
白宮官員透露，議員們已向奧巴馬保證，伯南克能夠獲得所需的60票，得以連任。但參院銀行委員會的資深共和黨成員謝爾比呼籲，應重新界定聯儲局的角色，力挺伯南克的參院銀行委員會主席多德，也支持把聯儲局的監管銀行責任移交一個新的監管機構。
分析指，上周五突然爆發的伯南克「連任危機」，反映美國當前微妙的經濟和政治形勢。由於就業與復甦脫節、華爾街大行巨額花紅，主導救市政策的伯南克成了公憤的目標，部分民主黨議員擔心民怨殃及自身，紛紛轉ɜ反對伯南克連任。
民主黨人添危機感
實際上，民怨針對的並不只是伯南克，在參眾兩院佔優勢的民主黨亦陷入困境。自去年底至今，民主黨已經連敗3場重要選戰，許多面臨中期選舉的民主黨人均萌生危機感，就連奧巴馬本人民望亦一路下滑。為平息公眾不滿，華府決定加大對華爾街大行的監管力度。
短短一星期內，奧巴馬先後宣布兩項針對華爾街大行的新政策，先是宣布開徵900億美元「救市稅」，之後更重納大蕭條時法規，建議禁止大型銀行兼理商業銀行和投資銀行業務，防範風險投機行為，但同時亦直接打擊大行收入。
消息傳出，美股狂瀉，有調查甚至顯示77%投資者認為奧巴馬有「反商」傾向。美國媒體注意到，奧巴馬近期談論金融監管改革時，「戰鬥」一詞頻繁出現，暗示白宮與華爾街大行的關係，已從一年前的救贖關係驟變成對抗關係。
金融界將在選戰反擊
與眾議院去年12月通過的金融改革議案相比，新的改革建議更具強制性，並引起巨大爭議。共和黨認為，新建議只是轉移公眾注意力，不利於爭取銀行增加貸款以支持經濟復甦。
來自金融業的反彈更加不容小覷。就在奧巴馬宣布新建議的同一天，美國最高法院裁定，解除1940年代末期實行的企業政治獻金限制，變相允許企業在聯邦及州選舉中，不受限制地支持或反對某一候選人。
換言之，假如金融業對華府新監管措施感到不滿，它們大可在未來選戰當中，投入無限的資金，為反對奧巴馬金融監管改革的候選人助選造勢。除非國會採取快速行動，再對政治獻金施加限制，否則支持奧巴馬的候選人會變得更加弱勢，商界對政治的影響則會前所未有地膨脹。
由於裁決關係到中期選舉的選戰格局，奧巴馬批評裁決是對「特殊利益集團的資金大開綠燈」。有輿論認為，這場白宮和華爾街的角力，將使中期選舉變得異常激烈。
■綜合報道
美國參議院料最快周四表決聯儲局主席伯南克的連任提案，雖然現在看來，他應可有驚無險獲得連任，但他領導的聯儲局將面對被削權的另一場危機。這場連任風波亦折射出一場美國政經風雲：總統奧巴馬和民主黨在民意劣勢下，轉行民粹路線，結果誘發一場白宮與商界的角力，很可能為年底國會中期選舉增添更多變數。
白宮官員透露，議員們已向奧巴馬保證，伯南克能夠獲得所需的60票，得以連任。但參院銀行委員會的資深共和黨成員謝爾比呼籲，應重新界定聯儲局的角色，力挺伯南克的參院銀行委員會主席多德，也支持把聯儲局的監管銀行責任移交一個新的監管機構。
分析指，上周五突然爆發的伯南克「連任危機」，反映美國當前微妙的經濟和政治形勢。由於就業與復甦脫節、華爾街大行巨額花紅，主導救市政策的伯南克成了公憤的目標，部分民主黨議員擔心民怨殃及自身，紛紛轉ɜ反對伯南克連任。
民主黨人添危機感
實際上，民怨針對的並不只是伯南克，在參眾兩院佔優勢的民主黨亦陷入困境。自去年底至今，民主黨已經連敗3場重要選戰，許多面臨中期選舉的民主黨人均萌生危機感，就連奧巴馬本人民望亦一路下滑。為平息公眾不滿，華府決定加大對華爾街大行的監管力度。
短短一星期內，奧巴馬先後宣布兩項針對華爾街大行的新政策，先是宣布開徵900億美元「救市稅」，之後更重納大蕭條時法規，建議禁止大型銀行兼理商業銀行和投資銀行業務，防範風險投機行為，但同時亦直接打擊大行收入。
消息傳出，美股狂瀉，有調查甚至顯示77%投資者認為奧巴馬有「反商」傾向。美國媒體注意到，奧巴馬近期談論金融監管改革時，「戰鬥」一詞頻繁出現，暗示白宮與華爾街大行的關係，已從一年前的救贖關係驟變成對抗關係。
金融界將在選戰反擊
與眾議院去年12月通過的金融改革議案相比，新的改革建議更具強制性，並引起巨大爭議。共和黨認為，新建議只是轉移公眾注意力，不利於爭取銀行增加貸款以支持經濟復甦。
來自金融業的反彈更加不容小覷。就在奧巴馬宣布新建議的同一天，美國最高法院裁定，解除1940年代末期實行的企業政治獻金限制，變相允許企業在聯邦及州選舉中，不受限制地支持或反對某一候選人。
換言之，假如金融業對華府新監管措施感到不滿，它們大可在未來選戰當中，投入無限的資金，為反對奧巴馬金融監管改革的候選人助選造勢。除非國會採取快速行動，再對政治獻金施加限制，否則支持奧巴馬的候選人會變得更加弱勢，商界對政治的影響則會前所未有地膨脹。
由於裁決關係到中期選舉的選戰格局，奧巴馬批評裁決是對「特殊利益集團的資金大開綠燈」。有輿論認為，這場白宮和華爾街的角力，將使中期選舉變得異常激烈。
■綜合報道
富達兩港基金經理停職受查
蘋果日報
富達昨以電郵回應本報查詢時，以事件尚在調查中，以及僱主/僱員保密協議為由，拒絕核實涉及的兩名基金經理身 份，以及因何事違規作進一步評論，但透露已聯絡有關執法機構，並將隨時就調查進展為他們提供最新資訊。富達指，被停職的兩位基金經理職務已由其他具備亞太 區投資經驗的基金經理負責。
《亞洲投資人》引述富達一名客戶表示，遭停職的基金經理於香港均已服務超過 10年，主要負責亞太區相關股票基金，兩人職務暫時由另外三名基金經理負責。
根據富達網站資料，旗下亞太區及大中華基金，十大持股中皆以重磅藍籌為主，包括近月受加息及集資困擾的三大內銀股，另外，昨日成交十大的國壽（ 2628）、港交所（ 388）及騰訊（ 700）亦是熱門組合持股。
【本報迅】管理全球超過 3000億美元資產的基金公司富達投資（ Fidelity）證實，已暫停旗下兩位基金經理職務，並就他們有否違反內部守則展開獨立調查，兩人職務暫時由主管亞太區投資的基金經理負責，相關安排已向大部份客戶交代及聯絡有關執法機構。
已聯絡執法機構
港交所資料顯示，富達以 Fidelity International Ltd及 FIL名義，曾持有 5%以上股權的股份達到 71家，截至昨日止，仍有 19隻港股持股量超過 5%，包括近期沽壓甚大的濰柴（ 2338）及創科（ 669）。富達昨以電郵回應本報查詢時，以事件尚在調查中，以及僱主/僱員保密協議為由，拒絕核實涉及的兩名基金經理身 份，以及因何事違規作進一步評論，但透露已聯絡有關執法機構，並將隨時就調查進展為他們提供最新資訊。富達指，被停職的兩位基金經理職務已由其他具備亞太 區投資經驗的基金經理負責。
《亞洲投資人》引述富達一名客戶表示，遭停職的基金經理於香港均已服務超過 10年，主要負責亞太區相關股票基金，兩人職務暫時由另外三名基金經理負責。
根據富達網站資料，旗下亞太區及大中華基金，十大持股中皆以重磅藍籌為主，包括近月受加息及集資困擾的三大內銀股，另外，昨日成交十大的國壽（ 2628）、港交所（ 388）及騰訊（ 700）亦是熱門組合持股。
倘涉問題股 或觸發大洗倉
一名美資基金經理透露，違反內部守則 原因孰輕孰重，可能不小心打開機密檔案亦會被查，不過他指富達已有其他基金經理接手管理，基金運作料維持正常。雖然基金重磅股皆為大藍籌，惟相對整體市 場，影響很微，「沽極有限」，反而如組合內持有「有問題」細價股，調查後倘發現是違規原因，其他基金經理接手「善後」，股價或出現洗倉式暴瀉。
2010年1月25日 星期一
舊酒新瓶倫敦金
hk.news.yahoo.com
倫敦金「陷阱」 藉頻交易賺佣
(星島日報 報道)倫敦金「陷阱」最近利用電話及街頭易拉架誤導推銷，「大小通吃」，令受害人數目增加，包括長者、新移民 及教師等。工聯會 共接獲十三宗類似倫敦金騙案的求助個案，涉及金額總逾一百六十萬元，當中有人損失高達五十四萬元，有人則在短短四天內蒸發了近九萬元。該會促政府須盡快就倫敦金投資訂立發牌制度，杜絕不良分子繼續破壞本港作為國際金融投資中心的形象。記者：陳意婷
以往的倫敦金騙案手法，多設局誘騙事主「夾份投資」，每宗騙案涉及銀碼高達數十萬元。不過，工聯會發現由去年十一月至今，所接獲的十三宗倫敦金受騙個 案，不法分子均是透過電話或街頭易拉架推銷的方式，誘騙事主投資倫敦金，投資時間由四天至三個月不等，而損失金額則介乎僅萬多元至五十四萬元不等，四分一 苦主的投資損失率足達百分之一百。
要求「斬倉」遭拖延
苦主B女士透露，誘使她投資倫敦金的公司坐落中環 某商業大廈全層，極具規模。「那經紀就cold call了我三個月，說話好有道理咁，說甚麼『黃金是世界性投資，不如股票市場，升跌可操縱於幾個大戶，好穩陣！』」直至去年九月八日，金價升穿每安士一千美元 ，她便決定注入十萬元本金開始投資。但四日後當她要求「斬倉」離場，卻遭經紀一度拖延，最終只能取回一萬八千元。另一名苦主H先生，亦有遇上經紀蓄意拖延「斬倉」，導致他一小時間投資利潤由二萬三百元急挫至只剩本金三百元。
九日買賣74次
工聯會香港財務策劃人員總工會副理事長陳慶生指出，近期發現的倫敦金騙徒手法明顯較以往「高明」，「會利用法律保障自己，誤導買家簽署合約協議，授權 予中介公司或經紀全權負責買賣交易」，而經紀每進行一宗買賣就可賺取一百五十至三百九十元佣金，故個案中廣泛出現不尋常的「頻密交易」情況。有苦主在短短 九個交易日中，其經紀就進行了七十四次買賣，以賺取佣金圖利，當中兩個交易相距最短時間的只差一分鐘。
立法會 議員潘佩璆早前曾聯同多位受害人先後到過警署，去信金銀業貿易場、消委會 及證監會 作 出申訴，唯多個部門均以監管範圍所限，拒絕接見或採取進一步調查，「這是不能接受的……政府應盡快立法規管倫敦金買賣及經紀操守問題，防止更多市民誤墮騙 案」。陳慶生就補充，政府可透過訂立發牌制度，規範經營倫敦金的公司、營業員及核准介紹代理人必須使用良好的銷售手法。
2010年1月23日 星期六
2010年1月22日 星期五
美加強監管銀行 禁坐盤交易
如果落實, 睇來資金會繼續流出市場返去銀行實體 !
所以買貨都係等低位, 因為手上還有貨 !
文匯報
美國總統奧巴馬於今日凌晨公布加強銀行業監管方案，限制大型金融機構規模和業務範疇，尤其是禁止商業銀行「坐 盤交易」，與投資銀行劃清界線，意味重新採納大蕭條時期的法規，以免金融海嘯重臨。奧巴馬在麻省參議員補選民主黨敗陣翌日，對華爾街又一次重拳出擊，分析 指是大打民粹牌。
所以買貨都係等低位, 因為手上還有貨 !
文匯報
美國總統奧巴馬於今日凌晨公布加強銀行業監管方案，限制大型金融機構規模和業務範疇，尤其是禁止商業銀行「坐 盤交易」，與投資銀行劃清界線，意味重新採納大蕭條時期的法規，以免金融海嘯重臨。奧巴馬在麻省參議員補選民主黨敗陣翌日，對華爾街又一次重拳出擊，分析 指是大打民粹牌。
奧巴馬在經濟復甦顧問委員會主席沃爾克以及證券交易委員會前主席唐納森陪同下，宣布新監管方案，當中採納了沃爾克的建議，將商業銀行和投資銀行分家，禁止前者涉足高風險投機活動，例如對沖基金和坐盤交易。
防鹵莽押注 拖垮金融體系
所謂坐盤交易，是指金融機構用自己的資本在市場買賣，而非代表客戶執行交易。華府批評有關交易鹵莽押注美國樓市，令銀行虧損巨大，險些拖垮整個金融體系，迫使華府動用7,000億美元(約5.4萬億港元)公帑拯救。
建議如獲通過，美國大型銀行包括高盛集團、摩根士丹利、摩根大通、花旗集團、美國銀行和富國銀行都將受到影響。其中，高盛集團去年逾90%的稅前盈利都來自金融交易和本金投資(即動用高盛本身資金進行投資)。
早在大蕭條時期，美國便通過「格拉斯－斯蒂高爾法案」，要求涉足資本市場的金融機構與主要提供傳統客戶服務(如存款和借貸)的銀行區分，直至1999年才撤銷。花旗前行政總裁里德認為，議員廢除該法的決定是錯的。
擬增設機構 保障客戶利益
奧巴馬的提議還將對全美最大的金融機構規模設置限制，防止出現「大得不能倒下」的銀行威脅整個經濟，目前還不清楚政府認可的確切規模限制。方案亦可能提高資本金要求。
此外，華府擬設立新的消費者保障機構，保障銀行客戶利益。此建議受到銀行說客反對，但華府強調絕不妥協。兩黨正討論在銀行監管機構下增設部門，有權訂立消費者監管規章，但執法權就交由監管機構代辦。
美國失業率維持10%以上水平，民眾對華府救助華爾街非常不滿，是民主黨於麻省參議員補選落敗的原 因之一。奧巴馬上周亦宣布向50家金融機構徵費，望10年內收取1,170億美元(約9,090億港元)，以收回部分「問題資產紓困計劃」的成本，企圖紓 減民憤。
■綜合外電消息/路透社/彭博通訊社
2010年1月20日 星期三
2010年1月14日 星期四
唐煒臻自封「華人巴菲特」，自誇專研股神理論
http://hk.news.yahoo.com/article/100107/4/g0f4.html
【明報專訊】唐煒臻自封「華人巴菲特」，在多倫多的華人圈子中頗有名氣，包括資助農曆新年表演節目及舉辦投資峰會。他著有《我的巴菲特財富之路》一書，自稱專研和應用巴菲特理論十多年。
唐煒臻祖籍湖南，1990年代移民並入籍加國。他出生於農民家庭，1978年入讀中南林學院，之後赴美進修，1990年前往加拿大，於滑鐵盧大學進修生物系，並於多倫多總醫院及兒童醫院從事研究工作。之後他轉戰投資界，自稱發現自己的投資天分。他在1995年以自己名字成立投資公司，開始為同事和朋友代理互惠基金投資，奉行「不賺錢不收費」的經營原則，建立融資渠道，逐漸積累財富與社會地位。
曾應邀赴胡錦濤晚宴
在事業高峰期，他曾受邀出席中國國家主席胡錦濤訪問加拿大的晚宴，並獲得「多倫多華人社區傑出貢獻獎」。他最著名的宣傳口號是「每周回報1%」。他宣稱，自己管理的資金99%以上並不在市場，每天只用不到1%的資金從市場賺取利潤，不管是牛市還是熊市，都保持連續穩定盈利，2007年回報率高達90%以上，比「股神」巴菲特的年均24%回報率高近4倍。
去年宣布蝕錢 堅稱無私吞
即使在2008年9月雷曼兄弟破產全球恐慌之際，他仍以「每周賺1%」的神話把許多投資者蒙蔽，直至去年2月底的客戶大會上，他才當眾宣布投資出現巨大虧損，公司帳面上只有逾千元。但他堅稱自己是合法投資，雖然損失了投資人一部分金錢，但絕沒有拿入自己囊中。
美國證監會去年4月已控告他和他操控的8家公司進行龐茲詐騙。該民事訴訟指出，唐煒臻至少從2004年起通過其對冲基金等，由200多位投資者手中，集資5000萬至7500萬美元。他在美國公司的資金已被凍結。
【明報專訊】唐煒臻自封「華人巴菲特」，在多倫多的華人圈子中頗有名氣，包括資助農曆新年表演節目及舉辦投資峰會。他著有《我的巴菲特財富之路》一書，自稱專研和應用巴菲特理論十多年。
唐煒臻祖籍湖南，1990年代移民並入籍加國。他出生於農民家庭，1978年入讀中南林學院，之後赴美進修，1990年前往加拿大，於滑鐵盧大學進修生物系，並於多倫多總醫院及兒童醫院從事研究工作。之後他轉戰投資界，自稱發現自己的投資天分。他在1995年以自己名字成立投資公司，開始為同事和朋友代理互惠基金投資，奉行「不賺錢不收費」的經營原則，建立融資渠道，逐漸積累財富與社會地位。
曾應邀赴胡錦濤晚宴
在事業高峰期，他曾受邀出席中國國家主席胡錦濤訪問加拿大的晚宴，並獲得「多倫多華人社區傑出貢獻獎」。他最著名的宣傳口號是「每周回報1%」。他宣稱，自己管理的資金99%以上並不在市場，每天只用不到1%的資金從市場賺取利潤，不管是牛市還是熊市，都保持連續穩定盈利，2007年回報率高達90%以上，比「股神」巴菲特的年均24%回報率高近4倍。
去年宣布蝕錢 堅稱無私吞
即使在2008年9月雷曼兄弟破產全球恐慌之際，他仍以「每周賺1%」的神話把許多投資者蒙蔽，直至去年2月底的客戶大會上，他才當眾宣布投資出現巨大虧損，公司帳面上只有逾千元。但他堅稱自己是合法投資，雖然損失了投資人一部分金錢，但絕沒有拿入自己囊中。
美國證監會去年4月已控告他和他操控的8家公司進行龐茲詐騙。該民事訴訟指出，唐煒臻至少從2004年起通過其對冲基金等，由200多位投資者手中，集資5000萬至7500萬美元。他在美國公司的資金已被凍結。
2010年1月13日 星期三
中國突然宣布調高存款準備金率
http://inews.mingpao.com/htm/INews/20100112/ea21945c.htm
中國突然宣布調高存款準備金率後，歐洲股市的跌幅擴大，商品價格也受壓。
http://inews.mingpao.com/htm/INews/20100112/ea21934c.htm
中國人民銀行宣布調升存款準備金率半個百分點後，澳元兌美元和日圓應聲下跌，幅度超過1%。
中國突然宣布調高存款準備金率後，歐洲股市的跌幅擴大，商品價格也受壓。
http://inews.mingpao.com/htm/INews/20100112/ea21934c.htm
中國人民銀行宣布調升存款準備金率半個百分點後，澳元兌美元和日圓應聲下跌，幅度超過1%。
2010年1月10日 星期日
2010: The Best of Times or the Worst?
http://finance.yahoo.com/expert/article/richricher/211091
Is the recession over? Are happy days really here again? Paraphrasing Dickens, my answer is, “For people who are prepared, 2010 will be the best of times. For many, 2010 will be the worst of times.”
Pictured above is a graph of mortgage resets. In simple terms, a mortgage reset is when a mortgage comes due. In normal times, refinancing was a simple process…but these are not normal times. Some points of interest:
1. In September 2008, the mortgage resets hit $35 billion that month. That was the exact time the financial crisis hit. When people could not afford to refinance and began to default, the stock market and banking industry crashed.
2. The eye of the storm: In the summer of 2009 mortgage resets were low -- around $15 billion a month. This is when optimists began to see “green shoots” in the economy. The green shoots were the eye of the storm. In 2010, as I see it, the second half of the financial hurricane hits. By late 2011, the resets climb to nearly $40 billion a month. The storm will not end until 2012.
3. The first half of the storm was primarily due to subprime defaults. The second half of the storm will hit more solid homeowners. The question is, can they weather the storm? Will Mac Mansion foreclosures be next?
4. In America, there are over 40 million people who own more than two homes. Can they afford to carry and refinance two or more mortgages?
5. Since home values have gone down, many homeowners will find they owe more than their home(s) are worth. Will the bank be kind to them?
6. The time for using your home as an ATM is over. This is crushing retailers and retail real estate. Shopping centers are in trouble. Strip malls are empyting as shopkeepers close -- permanently. This will lead to the crash of the office, warehouse, and other commercial properties.
My prediction: Obviously these are the best of times if you are a buyer of distressed properties and the worst of times if you are a seller.
Other things I am watching for in 2010:
1. Will China crash? America’s crash has hit China in the gut. The Chinese are laying off millions of workers. Only massive government bailout is keeping the economy afloat. The Chinese boom will eventually go bust…but will it bust in 2010? Only time will tell.
2. When America stopped importing from China, China stopped importing from the rest of the world. This affects Asian countries as well as Australia, Brazil, and other suppliers of raw materials.
3. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is replacing toxic debt with new debt. By protecting his friends in the mega-banks, he is turning the U.S. into a zombie nation. The recession is over, but America is entering an era we will be calling The New Depression, a period when the rich become extremely rich but everyone else becomes poorer. Taxes will kill anyone working for a paycheck.
4. The U.S. dollar will grow weaker. If the dollar strengthens, we will have more unemployment because our goods become too expensive and we will export less.
5. The deficit will increase. The bailouts for the rich are killing the economy.
6. Israel may attack Iran. Israel will not tolerate Iran developing nuclear power, even if Iran claims it is for peaceful purposes. If there is an attack, oil prices will go through the roof.
7. Dead cat bounce. The current stock market rally will probably turn into a dead cat bounce. If the Dow drops below 6500, 5,000 may be the next stop.
The Best of Times
I know I sound painfully pessimistic. I know my predictions are bad news for most people. Yet, for others, bad news is good news.
Prediction #2: Gold, silver, and oil will continue to be safe investments in 2010
By the end of 2010, I predict gold will be at $1,775 an ounce, silver at $24 an ounce, and oil at $85 a barrel. If Israel attacks Iran, these predictions will be blown away.
Prediction #3: The next market to crash will be commercial real estate.
Cash flow positive real estate will be even more affordable. 2010 through 2012 will be a real estate buffet for those with cash and access to credit.
My Personal Investments
As I stated in 2002, “You have up to the year 2010 to become prepared.”
The following are things I have done to prepare myself:
1. I started The Rich Dad Company in 1997 because I saw this crisis coming. For the past three years, I have tightened internal controls and prepared for global expansion via a franchise distribution system. The company is debt free with strong income.
2. 2009 was my best real estate year to date. With the Fed handing out large sums of money and pension funds looking for projects to invest in, my real estate holding company has acquired tens of millions of dollars for acquisition of bankrupt properties and development projects. Development projects are affordable again, as labor, material, and land costs are low and the government is generous with 40-year, low interest, non-recourse loans. People still need a roof over their heads.
3. My oil development projects have done well. We drilled three wells and hit oil on two of them. Government tax breaks for oil exploration remain generous, even for dry holes. Even if the economy crashes, we will still burn oil.
4. I took 90% of my money out of the stock market in 2007. If the Fed raises interest rates, the stock market and real estate market will collapse.
5. I loaded up on gold and silver between 1996 and 2004.
6. With the Fed printing trillions of dollars, cash is trash and savers are losers. As soon as I have excess cash I invest in oil, real estate, gold, and silver.
7. In a zero-interest-rate environment, debtors are winners…but only if you have good debt…debt that’s paid by tenants.
In Conclusion
A few years ago, Japan was ‘King of the Financial World.’ Japan’s economy was the world’s second largest economy -- till the bubble burst in 1990. Japan’s budget went into deficit in 1993. Since then, the deficit has averaged 5.4 percent of GDP per year. As a result, Japanese government debt is now 200 percentof GDP today. The U.S. is following Japan, and China will follow the U.S.
We will not see much inflation because the Fed is not able to print enough money to replace the losses from the burst of the credit bubble. Also, factories have too much excess capacity due to lack of demand, which means prices for consumer goods will remain low and unemployment will remain high. Instead, we will see inflation in gold, silver, oil, some stocks, some real estate sectors, and food -- not because values are going up but because the dollar is going down.
Welcome to The New Depression. And may these times be the best of times for you.
Is the recession over? Are happy days really here again? Paraphrasing Dickens, my answer is, “For people who are prepared, 2010 will be the best of times. For many, 2010 will be the worst of times.”
Pictured above is a graph of mortgage resets. In simple terms, a mortgage reset is when a mortgage comes due. In normal times, refinancing was a simple process…but these are not normal times. Some points of interest:
1. In September 2008, the mortgage resets hit $35 billion that month. That was the exact time the financial crisis hit. When people could not afford to refinance and began to default, the stock market and banking industry crashed.
2. The eye of the storm: In the summer of 2009 mortgage resets were low -- around $15 billion a month. This is when optimists began to see “green shoots” in the economy. The green shoots were the eye of the storm. In 2010, as I see it, the second half of the financial hurricane hits. By late 2011, the resets climb to nearly $40 billion a month. The storm will not end until 2012.
3. The first half of the storm was primarily due to subprime defaults. The second half of the storm will hit more solid homeowners. The question is, can they weather the storm? Will Mac Mansion foreclosures be next?
4. In America, there are over 40 million people who own more than two homes. Can they afford to carry and refinance two or more mortgages?
5. Since home values have gone down, many homeowners will find they owe more than their home(s) are worth. Will the bank be kind to them?
6. The time for using your home as an ATM is over. This is crushing retailers and retail real estate. Shopping centers are in trouble. Strip malls are empyting as shopkeepers close -- permanently. This will lead to the crash of the office, warehouse, and other commercial properties.
My prediction: Obviously these are the best of times if you are a buyer of distressed properties and the worst of times if you are a seller.
Other things I am watching for in 2010:
1. Will China crash? America’s crash has hit China in the gut. The Chinese are laying off millions of workers. Only massive government bailout is keeping the economy afloat. The Chinese boom will eventually go bust…but will it bust in 2010? Only time will tell.
2. When America stopped importing from China, China stopped importing from the rest of the world. This affects Asian countries as well as Australia, Brazil, and other suppliers of raw materials.
3. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is replacing toxic debt with new debt. By protecting his friends in the mega-banks, he is turning the U.S. into a zombie nation. The recession is over, but America is entering an era we will be calling The New Depression, a period when the rich become extremely rich but everyone else becomes poorer. Taxes will kill anyone working for a paycheck.
4. The U.S. dollar will grow weaker. If the dollar strengthens, we will have more unemployment because our goods become too expensive and we will export less.
5. The deficit will increase. The bailouts for the rich are killing the economy.
6. Israel may attack Iran. Israel will not tolerate Iran developing nuclear power, even if Iran claims it is for peaceful purposes. If there is an attack, oil prices will go through the roof.
7. Dead cat bounce. The current stock market rally will probably turn into a dead cat bounce. If the Dow drops below 6500, 5,000 may be the next stop.
The Best of Times
I know I sound painfully pessimistic. I know my predictions are bad news for most people. Yet, for others, bad news is good news.
Prediction #2: Gold, silver, and oil will continue to be safe investments in 2010
By the end of 2010, I predict gold will be at $1,775 an ounce, silver at $24 an ounce, and oil at $85 a barrel. If Israel attacks Iran, these predictions will be blown away.
Prediction #3: The next market to crash will be commercial real estate.
Cash flow positive real estate will be even more affordable. 2010 through 2012 will be a real estate buffet for those with cash and access to credit.
My Personal Investments
As I stated in 2002, “You have up to the year 2010 to become prepared.”
The following are things I have done to prepare myself:
1. I started The Rich Dad Company in 1997 because I saw this crisis coming. For the past three years, I have tightened internal controls and prepared for global expansion via a franchise distribution system. The company is debt free with strong income.
2. 2009 was my best real estate year to date. With the Fed handing out large sums of money and pension funds looking for projects to invest in, my real estate holding company has acquired tens of millions of dollars for acquisition of bankrupt properties and development projects. Development projects are affordable again, as labor, material, and land costs are low and the government is generous with 40-year, low interest, non-recourse loans. People still need a roof over their heads.
3. My oil development projects have done well. We drilled three wells and hit oil on two of them. Government tax breaks for oil exploration remain generous, even for dry holes. Even if the economy crashes, we will still burn oil.
4. I took 90% of my money out of the stock market in 2007. If the Fed raises interest rates, the stock market and real estate market will collapse.
5. I loaded up on gold and silver between 1996 and 2004.
6. With the Fed printing trillions of dollars, cash is trash and savers are losers. As soon as I have excess cash I invest in oil, real estate, gold, and silver.
7. In a zero-interest-rate environment, debtors are winners…but only if you have good debt…debt that’s paid by tenants.
In Conclusion
A few years ago, Japan was ‘King of the Financial World.’ Japan’s economy was the world’s second largest economy -- till the bubble burst in 1990. Japan’s budget went into deficit in 1993. Since then, the deficit has averaged 5.4 percent of GDP per year. As a result, Japanese government debt is now 200 percentof GDP today. The U.S. is following Japan, and China will follow the U.S.
We will not see much inflation because the Fed is not able to print enough money to replace the losses from the burst of the credit bubble. Also, factories have too much excess capacity due to lack of demand, which means prices for consumer goods will remain low and unemployment will remain high. Instead, we will see inflation in gold, silver, oil, some stocks, some real estate sectors, and food -- not because values are going up but because the dollar is going down.
Welcome to The New Depression. And may these times be the best of times for you.
2010年1月4日 星期一
Vietnam orders gold-trading floors shut by end-March
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2010%5C01%5C03%5Cstory_3-1-2010_pg5_20
HANOI: Vietnam, where many people see gold as a safe haven against economic uncertainty, has ordered public gold-trading floors shut by March 31 because they rest on a “fragile foundation”.The order affects about 20 gold-trading houses operated by banks and other firms, which have been running for more than two years, the state-run Vietnam News reported. Retailing of gold jewellery will still be allowed, it said.The gold-trading floors have offered heavily-leveraged trading in which investors pay a security deposit of only seven percent of the net asset value of their trades while banks back the rest, the report said.“It’s very risky for traders involved in such highly leveraged operations,” a Hanoi-based investment analyst, Bui Kien Thanh, told Dow Jones Newswires. The government will need to reorganise the gold-trading floors as part of efforts to stabilise domestic financial and money markets, Thanh said. A government statement said transactions at the gold-trading firms total up to thousands of billions of dong a day (hundreds of millions of dollars) but occur “on a fragile foundation that lacks legal, economic and technical frameworks and knowledge.”In an early-December report the World Bank said Vietnam experienced a severe shortage of foreign exchange between May and July, and again in November.“Uncertainty regarding the level of international reserves also encouraged a precautionary demand for gold and dollars,” putting significant depreciation pressures on the exchange rate, it said.After burning through its official dollar reserves, Vietnam in November devalued the dong in a bid to bolster trade, which has suffered during the global financial crisis. The World Bank has said Vietnam was the world’s biggest importer of gold in 2008, when the country’s inflation reached 23 percent for the year.On Thursday the government reported a yearly trade deficit of 12.2 billion dollars, down 32.1 percent year-on-year but still too high, an analyst said.
HANOI: Vietnam, where many people see gold as a safe haven against economic uncertainty, has ordered public gold-trading floors shut by March 31 because they rest on a “fragile foundation”.The order affects about 20 gold-trading houses operated by banks and other firms, which have been running for more than two years, the state-run Vietnam News reported. Retailing of gold jewellery will still be allowed, it said.The gold-trading floors have offered heavily-leveraged trading in which investors pay a security deposit of only seven percent of the net asset value of their trades while banks back the rest, the report said.“It’s very risky for traders involved in such highly leveraged operations,” a Hanoi-based investment analyst, Bui Kien Thanh, told Dow Jones Newswires. The government will need to reorganise the gold-trading floors as part of efforts to stabilise domestic financial and money markets, Thanh said. A government statement said transactions at the gold-trading firms total up to thousands of billions of dong a day (hundreds of millions of dollars) but occur “on a fragile foundation that lacks legal, economic and technical frameworks and knowledge.”In an early-December report the World Bank said Vietnam experienced a severe shortage of foreign exchange between May and July, and again in November.“Uncertainty regarding the level of international reserves also encouraged a precautionary demand for gold and dollars,” putting significant depreciation pressures on the exchange rate, it said.After burning through its official dollar reserves, Vietnam in November devalued the dong in a bid to bolster trade, which has suffered during the global financial crisis. The World Bank has said Vietnam was the world’s biggest importer of gold in 2008, when the country’s inflation reached 23 percent for the year.On Thursday the government reported a yearly trade deficit of 12.2 billion dollars, down 32.1 percent year-on-year but still too high, an analyst said.
2010年1月1日 星期五
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