2016年1月31日 星期日
東網: 南亞匪又搶又偷2日4宗 旺角男中招失1.9萬
中午12時許，49歲姓黃男子與48歲姓李妻子，途經旺角西洋菜南街182號對開，有6名南亞男子走近他們。其中2人曾經觸碰黃的褲管，然後6人一齊離
去。未幾，黃發現褲袋的19000元現金不翼而飛，才醒覺被扒手光顧，妻子致電報警。
文匯報: 避險升溫 金價首季續看漲
紐約期金1月升5% 1年最勁
市場預期美聯儲至少要到3月後才會重啟加息，也利好黃金期價
不過，花旗同時指出，隨着時間的推移，金價與美元反向而行的關係將持續下去，對金價構成下行壓力。
市場預期美聯儲至少要到3月後才會重啟加息，也利好黃金期價
不過，花旗同時指出，隨着時間的推移，金價與美元反向而行的關係將持續下去，對金價構成下行壓力。
2016年1月30日 星期六
Legendary Investor Eric Sprott Shares the Greatest Financial Lesson He’s Ever Learned
就是說, 想金銀價升, 就要俾多幾個月的耐性, 因為日本的負利率是利美元 !
www.silverdoctors.comIn the wake of Japan announcing negative interest rates and chaos in the silver market with Thursday’s LBMA silver price fix smashed .84 below spot prices by the 6 fixing bullion banks, we welcomed The Admiral of the Silver Market, Eric Sprott himself to help us break down all the action.
In Sprott’s words, the sheer brazenness of the silver fix smash “Reeks of Desperation“.
The discussion offers a unique look into the mind of the Billionaire Asset Manager, as Sprott shares insight into the thought process on how he evaluates whether a market is experiencing a bottom, and the legendary investor also shares the greatest financial lesson he’s ever learned…
- Sprott Breaks Down London Fix Silver Manipulation: It Reeks of Desperation! The sheer brazenness to think you can just put out whatever price you want…
- How Does Sprott Evaluate if a Market Bottoming Process is Underway?
- With the Value of the CAD Plunging, Have Canadians Started Turning to Gold & Silver For Wealth Preservation?
- Sprott Warns on Systemic Collapse: We Were Right There in ’08, Here We Are 8 Years Later, & the Situation is Worse!
- Sprott Reveals Gold and Silver Demand is WAY Off the Charts- Shortages Are Popping Up Again!
- COMEX Down to 2 Tonnes of Gold- Will Eric Soon Be Able to Take the Last Physical Gold Bar out of the COMEX?
There’s an old saying on Wall Street. The first five trading days of January often sets the tone for the rest of the year. Think of it as trader folklore, and historically, there is some truth to the pattern.
Well, to heck with the first five trading days. January’s stock market action has been downright ugly! If it wasn’t for the Bank of Japan’s announcement of negative interest rates on Thursday and the Pavlovian ringing of the global liquidity bell, we wouldn’t have seen the S&P 500 gain 2.43 percent on Friday’s close. That gain repaired some of the mauling sustained by the benchmark.
Nevertheless, carnage this January was exceeded only by the downside action of January, 2009.
I’ve warned many times this month on Weekly Metals & Markets as well as on Dr. Dave Janda’s show that we’re most likely going to see an ongoing bear market decline that takes time to unfold, not unlike the 2000 through 2002 and 2007 (in select assets) through the March, 2009 nadir. Spike-down crashes are possible. But an ongoing bear market, with plenty of “normal” bear market rallies is more common than spike down events like Oct., 1987. In fact, don’t be surprised if we see the S&P 500 rise, on balance, during the month of February.
It’s ripe for a bounce, and with the Bank of Japan upping stimulus, the spice will flow; more global liquidity is coming, and “Super Mario” already “surprised” the markets with a doubling down on his “whatever it takes” mantra.
Frankly, while I can’t prove this, I think it’s a reasonable speculation to assume that the Bank of Japan is playing its role, taking its turn drinking from the “currency war canteen,” as Jim Rickards likes to joke. It’s reasonable to assume the BOJ’s action last night is fully coordinated with the ECB, the Fed and the Bank of England. You can probably toss into the mix the Swiss National Bank and the Bank for International Settlements as well.
The strong US dollar has been contributing to global deflationary forces upsetting financial markets. The transmission mechanism takes many forms, including the impact to oil (and in turn, degrading balance sheets of energy companies), and to the dollar denominated debt burden faced by developing countries that piled on debt after the Fed led the world down the path towards our zero interest rate paradigm. This debt doubles as collateral on the balance sheets of energy companies, and the treasuries/central banks of developing countries. In a roundabout way, the rising dollar is sending earthquakes through the global shadow banking system and financial markets.
The dollar took a breather during early January. But as you’d expect, the dollar leaped higher today in relation to the Japanese Yen. Interestingly enough, the Euro also rose against the US Dollar – and has been rising over the last few trading days. There’s every reason to expect the dollar to keep rising in the short-term, and this is going to probably put pressure on precious metals, quoted in US dollar terms. But everywhere one looks, incoming economic data paints a picture of the US having already entered a recession. Even official government stats paint this picture. At some point, the “currency war canteen” is going to be passed to the US and the Fed is going to take a swig. The reality of this transition will start to be priced into markets before Janet Yellen reaches for the liquidity canteen, and I expect this shift to start helping precious metals with a dollar tailwind starting within a couple of months.
But well before the dollar tailwind starts to help, we’ve got plenty of forces countering the dollar’s impact. The laws of economics haven’t been repealed, and the supply/demand trends for physical metal Mr. Sprott discusses will pull the sector higher. But don’t be surprised if we have another few months of cartel management and a generally stronger dollar before precious metals start to make a sustained move higher.
星島日報: 油企告急 中石油料少賺70%
中石油（857）發盈警，預期按中國企業會計準則，2015年股東應佔淨利潤按年將減少60%至70%，與去年上半年淨利潤下跌逾60%相若
中海油田服務（2883）亦發盈警，預期截至去年底止的年度盈利按年將跌85%左右，2014年同期盈利則為74.92億元。
華油能源（1251）亦發盈警，表示受集團主要客戶大幅削減勘探開發投資的影響，初步評估截至2015年12月底止年度將錄得稅後虧損，預計虧損金額逾4億元。
中海油田服務（2883）亦發盈警，預期截至去年底止的年度盈利按年將跌85%左右，2014年同期盈利則為74.92億元。
華油能源（1251）亦發盈警，表示受集團主要客戶大幅削減勘探開發投資的影響，初步評估截至2015年12月底止年度將錄得稅後虧損，預計虧損金額逾4億元。
白銀定價
autumnson-nwo.blogspot.hk
REALIST NEWS -Silver Derivatives were about to blow - Silver Fix Rigged to save them
還以為白銀定價銀行在禁低銀價, 原來佢地為救白銀期貨期權爆煲, 而在出手短暫阻住了銀價爆升 !
www.silverdoctors.com
John Miles of the Zaner Group Brokerage Firm summarized what occurred:
It was a LMBA FIX issue. The silver fix is now called the LBMA Silver Price. The 6 banks that set the price are not allowed to lay off risk at COMEX or anywhere else so when there was a sell order inbalance this morning, the banks had to find a price level where they would buy that imbalance and that price level was much lower than the prevailing spot or futures price. So, once the LBMA Silver price was publicly announced at 6:15am today, the futures market immediately received a sell of ~ 5,000 silver futures contracts within a minute or two, thus we had a mini silver crash.
And there you have it ladies and gents. 6 bullion banks dumped dumped over 25 million oz of paper silver on the market in under 90 seconds in order to set the London Silver Price 84 cents below the current silver spot.
REALIST NEWS -Silver Derivatives were about to blow - Silver Fix Rigged to save them
還以為白銀定價銀行在禁低銀價, 原來佢地為救白銀期貨期權爆煲, 而在出手短暫阻住了銀價爆升 !
www.silverdoctors.com
John Miles of the Zaner Group Brokerage Firm summarized what occurred:
It was a LMBA FIX issue. The silver fix is now called the LBMA Silver Price. The 6 banks that set the price are not allowed to lay off risk at COMEX or anywhere else so when there was a sell order inbalance this morning, the banks had to find a price level where they would buy that imbalance and that price level was much lower than the prevailing spot or futures price. So, once the LBMA Silver price was publicly announced at 6:15am today, the futures market immediately received a sell of ~ 5,000 silver futures contracts within a minute or two, thus we had a mini silver crash.
And there you have it ladies and gents. 6 bullion banks dumped dumped over 25 million oz of paper silver on the market in under 90 seconds in order to set the London Silver Price 84 cents below the current silver spot.
2016年1月29日 星期五
HSBC Halts Mortgage Options To Chinese Nationals Buying U.S. Real Estate
睇來美加樓市要跌啦 !
www.zerohedge.comSubmitted by Mike Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,
Two days ago, I published a post explaining how the super high end real estate bubble had popped, and how signs of this reality have emerged across America.
Here’s an excerpt from that post, The Luxury Housing Bubble Pops – Overseas Investors Struggle to Sell Overpriced Mansions:
The six-bedroom mansion in the shadow of Southern California’s Sierra Madre Mountains has lime trees and a swimming pool, tennis courts and a sauna — the kind of place that would have sold quickly just a year ago, according to real estate agent Kanney Zhang.
Not now.
Zhang is shopping it for a discounted $3.68 million, but nobody’s biting. Her clients, a couple from China, are getting anxious. They’re the kind of well-heeled international investors who fueled a four-year luxury real estate boom that helped pull America out of its worst housing slump since the 1930s. Now the couple is reeling from the selloff in the Chinese stock market and looking to raise cash to shore up finances.
In the Los Angeles suburb of Arcadia, where Zhang is struggling to sell the six-bedroom home, dozens of aging ranch houses were demolished to make way for 38 mansions built with Chinese buyers in mind. They have manicured lawns and wok kitchens and are priced as high as $12 million. Many of them sit empty because the prices are out of the range of most domestic buyers, said Re/Max broker Rudy Kusuma, who blames a crackdown by the Chinese on large sums leaving the country.
Well, I have some more bad news for mansion-flipping Chinese nationals.
From Reuters:
Europe’s biggest lender HSBC will no longer provide mortgages to some Chinese nationals who buy real estate in the United States, a policy change that comes as Beijing is battling to stem a swelling crowd of citizens trying to get money out of China.
An HSBC spokesman in New York told Reuters on Wednesday that the new policy went into effect last week, roughly a month after China suspended Standard Chartered and DBS Group Holdings Ltd from conducting some foreign exchange business and as authorities try to limit capital outflows.
Realtors of luxury property in cities like New York, Los Angeles, and Vancouver, said more than 80 percent of wealthy Chinese buyers have ties to China.
Luxury homes news website Mansion Global, which first reported the HSBC policy change, said it would affect Chinese nationals holding temporary visitor ‘B’ visas if the majority of their income and assets are maintained in China.
Meanwhile…
HSBC’s pivot away from lending to some Chinese nationals abroad comes as other international banks clamor to lend more to wealthy Chinese.
The Royal Bank of Canada scrapped its C$1.25 million cap on mortgages to borrowers with no local credit history last year in a bid to tap into surging demand for financing from wealthy immigrant buyers.
Silver Market In Disarray After Benchmark Price Fix Manipulation
攻摯銀價進行中 ?
www.zerohedge.comAs Bulliondesk.com's Ian Walker reports, the silver market was thrown into disarray on Thursday after the LBMA Silver Price was set 84 cents below the spot and futures price this morning.
The LBMA Silver Price – the crucial daily benchmark used by producers and traders around the world to settle silver products and derivatives contracts – was set at $13.58 per ounce.
At the time of the auction, which begins at 12 noon London time, the spot price was at $14.42 per ounce while the futures price on the CME was at $14.415, leaving a number of market participants extremely confused as to what has happened.
“Unfortunately, it is not [a mistake],” Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy for Saxo Bank, told FastMarkets. “This could be the end of the fix. It took 14 minutes to find a fix – they obviously found a fix way off of the market.”
The difference between the two was nearly six percent but the benchmark cannot be changed, a person familiar with proceedings told FastMarkets.
Another source also suggested that the continued existence of the fix has been put in jeopardy by the huge discrepancy in today’s price, adding that many producers – who still use the price as their daily reference – may have lost significant amounts of money if any contracts have been settled according to the fix.
“A huge number of contracts are still settled on that price,” another said. “This will no doubt cause significant problems.”
The matter is being investigated internally, FastMarkets understands, so CME has no official comment at this time.
As we have detailed previously, the ‘fix’ or ‘benchmark’, as it is now known, is still the global benchmark reference price used by central banks, miners, refiners, jewellers and the surrounding financial industry to settle silver-based contracts.
While some traders continue to use the 24-hourly traded spot price, larger players prefer the snapshot-style daily benchmark to settle bulkier contracts on a traditionally over-the-counter (OTC) market.
The price is set every day by six participants – HSBC, JPMorgan Chase Bank, Mitsui & Co Precious Metals, The Bank of Nova Scotia, Toronto Dominion Bank and UBS – using a system run by CME and Thomson Reuters.
CME and Thomson Reuters won the battle to provide the methodology and price platform for the daily process back in July 2014, replacing the 117-year old fix in August that year under sweeping reforms of the entire precious metals complex.
鸿观 第70期 人民币汇率保卫战
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVavo7NPULY
宋鴻兵講解美元和人民幣的關聯:
1. 美元升不代表美國經濟好 !
2. 人民幣跌不代表中國經濟差 !
3. 人民幣點解要掛一籃子貨幣 ?
還說人民銀行打大鱷的經過, 好精彩 !
所以我地要多謝大鱷為我地帶來高人民幣定期利息 !
東網: 俄羅斯下月或會晤油組傾減產
俄羅斯能源部長表示，油組計劃在2月組織油組和非油組會議，俄羅斯確認可能參與此次會議。他認為，考慮下調石油產量是合理的，但目前很難判定可能會削減多少產量。
油股可以乘反彈減持 !
東網: 日本央行推行0.1%負利率
日本央行金融基金持有的往來帳戶將適用-0.1%負利率，日本央行必要時並將實施更低的存款負利率。
圓匯急跌，美元漲幅一度觸及121.42日圓；歐元升至132.20日圓。日經指數漲幅擴大，由消息前約升1%漲至2.5%。
日本央行推行負利率，港股升幅擴至逾400點。
圓匯急跌，美元漲幅一度觸及121.42日圓；歐元升至132.20日圓。日經指數漲幅擴大，由消息前約升1%漲至2.5%。
日本央行推行負利率，港股升幅擴至逾400點。
鸿观 第67期 美元加息痛剪羊毛
www.youtube.com
宋鴻兵講解, 為何美國加息, 全世界的美元會流去美國 !
所以會導至多美元債務的國家貨幣貶值, 通脹上升, 資產價格下跌 !
只睇俄國和巴西(也有油價跌帶來收入委縮問題), 大家都可以見到會發生乜事 !
港元會否發生同樣的事, 就要睇政府守唔守到聯匯攻摯啦 !
Stocks struggle for gains amid oil surge, biotech plunge
finance.yahoo.com
By Evelyn Cheng
U.S. stocks struggled for gains Thursday, as mixed earnings reports offset gains from a jump in oil prices.
The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB) (IBB) briefly traded more than 5 percent lower, while Facebook leaped more than 12 percent and Amazon (AMZN) gained, pulling the Nasdaq composite between negative and positive territory. Apple (AAPL) struggled for direction.
Amazon.com (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), Visa (NYSE:V) and Electronic Arts (EA) are among companies due to report after the bell.
The Dow Jones industrial average dipped into negative territory as Walt Disney, American Express and UnitedHealth weighed. Earlier, the index added more than 100 points as Chevron (CVX) and Caterpillar (CAT) climbed.
The S&P 500 also struggled for gains as energy held more than 1.5 percent higher, while health care briefly fell more than 2.5 percent. Earlier, energy gained more than 3.5 percent to lead S&P 500 advancers, with the index spiking 1 percent in opening trade.
Dow futures jumped more than 150 points in pre-market trade, shaking off pressure from a sharp miss on durable goods, as oil gained.
Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said Thursday that Saudi Arabia had proposed to cut oil production by up to 5 percent by each country in order to support weak oil prices, Reuters reported.
Facebook (FB) reported earnings after the close Wednesday that blew past estimates, with the firm beating the $1 billion mark in quarterly net income for the first time ever.
Caterpillar (CAT) reported adjusted fourth quarter profit of 74 cents per share, five cents above estimates, though revenue was light. Caterpillar does see full-year 2016 profit above current Street estimates, as it benefits from cost controls and restructuring.
U.S. stocks fell more than 1 percent Wednesday after the Federal Reserve meeting statement renewed concerns about global growth. Disappointing earnings reports from Apple and Boeing also weighed heavily on stocks, despite gains in oil prices.
Earlier, futures came well off session highs, with Dow futures briefly turning negative after December durable goods orders declined far more than expected.
Weekly jobless claims came in at 278,000.
Treasury yields edged lower after the durable goods report, with the 10-year dipping below 2 percent, before mostly turning higher as oil climbed.
The 10-year yield held steady at 2 percent, while the 2-year yield was lower near 0.82 percent as of 10:51 a.m. ET.
In morning trade, the Dow Jones industrial average (Dow Jones Global Indexes: .DJI) gained 117 points, or 0.74 percent, to 16,067, with Chevron leading advancers and American Express (AXP) the greatest of three decliners.
The Nasdaq (^IXIC) composite gained 46 points, or 1.03 percent, to 4,514.
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) (^VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 22.
About four stocks advanced for every decliner on the New York Stock Exchange, with an exchange volume of 128 million and a composite volume of 469 million.
Gold futures for February delivery fell 60 cents to $1,115.20 an ounce as of 9:52 a.m. ET.
By Evelyn ChengU.S. stocks struggled for gains Thursday, as mixed earnings reports offset gains from a jump in oil prices.
The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB) (IBB) briefly traded more than 5 percent lower, while Facebook leaped more than 12 percent and Amazon (AMZN) gained, pulling the Nasdaq composite between negative and positive territory. Apple (AAPL) struggled for direction.
"It's really Facebook and
Amazon that are driving the market but my real concern as we pull back
from the highs is this market is going to run up to resistance on any
rally," said Marc Chaikin, CEO of Chaikin Analytics. "The inability of
the market to hold up on good news (from stocks) like Facebook, which is
a key player, is not good news."
Amazon.com (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), Visa (NYSE:V) and Electronic Arts (EA) are among companies due to report after the bell.
The Dow Jones industrial average dipped into negative territory as Walt Disney, American Express and UnitedHealth weighed. Earlier, the index added more than 100 points as Chevron (CVX) and Caterpillar (CAT) climbed.
The S&P 500 also struggled for gains as energy held more than 1.5 percent higher, while health care briefly fell more than 2.5 percent. Earlier, energy gained more than 3.5 percent to lead S&P 500 advancers, with the index spiking 1 percent in opening trade.
U.S. crude oil futures pared
gains to hold just above $33 a barrel in mid-morning trade. Earlier, WTI
surged above $34.50 to their highest since Jan. 6. Brent traded just
above $34 a barrel after earlier topping $35.50 a barrel. The gains came
on the possibility that major producers may cooperate to cut
production.
"Obviously,
certainly crude is driving the bus," said Jeremy Klein, chief market
strategist at FBN Securities. He also noted support for stocks from some
encouraging earnings reports and expectations the Federal Reserve will
hold off on raising rates in the near-term.
Dow futures jumped more than 150 points in pre-market trade, shaking off pressure from a sharp miss on durable goods, as oil gained.
Celgene (CELG)
posted fourth-quarter earnings that fell short of analysts' estimates,
hurt by higher costs. The company's net profit fell to $561 million, or
69 cents per share, in the fourth quarter, from $613.9 million, or 74
cents per share, a year earlier, Reuters reported.
Facebook (FB) reported earnings after the close Wednesday that blew past estimates, with the firm beating the $1 billion mark in quarterly net income for the first time ever.
Caterpillar (CAT) reported adjusted fourth quarter profit of 74 cents per share, five cents above estimates, though revenue was light. Caterpillar does see full-year 2016 profit above current Street estimates, as it benefits from cost controls and restructuring.
U.S. stocks fell more than 1 percent Wednesday after the Federal Reserve meeting statement renewed concerns about global growth. Disappointing earnings reports from Apple and Boeing also weighed heavily on stocks, despite gains in oil prices.
Earlier, futures came well off session highs, with Dow futures briefly turning negative after December durable goods orders declined far more than expected.
Durable goods fell 5.1 percent in December , far more than expectations for a less-than 1 percent decline. Ex-transportation, the figure declined 1.2 percent.
"That's another indication the economy is continuing to slow and an
indication the Fed is going to hold off in the first half of this year,"
said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at First Standard
Financial.
Weekly jobless claims came in at 278,000.
Treasury yields edged lower after the durable goods report, with the 10-year dipping below 2 percent, before mostly turning higher as oil climbed.
The 10-year yield held steady at 2 percent, while the 2-year yield was lower near 0.82 percent as of 10:51 a.m. ET.
The U.S. dollar traded about
0.3 percent lower against major world currencies, with the euro above
$1.09 and the yen at 118.73 yen against the greenback.
In morning trade, the Dow Jones industrial average (Dow Jones Global Indexes: .DJI) gained 117 points, or 0.74 percent, to 16,067, with Chevron leading advancers and American Express (AXP) the greatest of three decliners.
The S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose 17 points, or 0.89 percent, to 1,899, with energy leading nine sectors higher and health care the only decliner.
The Nasdaq (^IXIC) composite gained 46 points, or 1.03 percent, to 4,514.
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) (^VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, traded near 22.
About four stocks advanced for every decliner on the New York Stock Exchange, with an exchange volume of 128 million and a composite volume of 469 million.
Crude oil futures for March delivery gained $1.67 to $33.98 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Gold futures for February delivery fell 60 cents to $1,115.20 an ounce as of 9:52 a.m. ET.
—Reuters and CNBC's Peter Schacknow contributed to this report
2016年1月28日 星期四
Sling-Shot Move Setting Up?
須要一個突發性的大跌市(跌50%-90%), 股市才可以見底 ?
www.armstrongeconomics.comWe have penetrated last year’s low in the cash S&P500, not the Dow yet. The Yearly Bearish does not come into play until we get to the bottom of the upward channel. Penetrating last year’s low is indeed setting the stage for the Sling-Shot.
Everything on our models is clearly pointing to this trend extending into 2020 and instead of concluding by 2017, that will be the starting point.
We NEED the vast majority to get really bearish calling for the end of the world and declines of 50% to 90%. This is the fuel for the Sling-Shot we need in place just as we saw in 1987.
Gold Stock Champagne – Stewart Thomson
www.silverdoctors.com
Submitted by Stewart Thomson, Graceland Updates:
Submitted by Stewart Thomson, Graceland Updates:
- The gold price rally is accelerating. Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge. That’s the four hour bars gold chart, and the price action is solid. Gold has broken out to the upside, from a second inverse head and shoulders bottom pattern.
- After a sharp pullback to the $1100 – $1108 area, gold should move nicely higher, towards my $1145 target zone.
- Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge. That’s the four hour bars chart for silver, and it’s staging a solid upside breakout from a symmetrical triangle pattern this morning! The target is the $15 area, which is the break-even point for a number of silver mining companies.
- From a fundamental perspective, gold now has a vast array of supportive price drivers. In the immediate term, Chinese New Year buying is a factor.
- Also, India’s finance minister may be poised to unveil a massive gold import duty cut in the upcoming annual budget. That’s because supply-related collapse in oil prices has dramatically cut the nation’s current account deficit, as a percentage of GDP. The gold import duty is no longer a viable scapegoat for that shrinking deficit.
- The El Nino weather system may end as early as May, and La Nina is poised to replace it. La Nina is bad news for US grain and South American crops, and good news for Indian crops, which is good news for Indian farmers, who are the world’s largest buyers of gold.
- Gold peaked near $1923 in 2011, just a few months after the horrific Japanese earthquake occurred. The dollar then began soaring against the yen, but now it has stalled, and yesterday Japan announced the first monthly trade surplus since the earthquake.
- On that note, please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this important dollar versus yen daily bars chart.
- Most amateur technicians follow the USDX (dollar index) chart for cues about gold, but the dollar versus yen chart is vastly more important. Large FOREX traders view the yen, not the dollar, as the world’s safe haven fiat currency.
- When money flows out of the yen, it flows out of gold. When money flows into the yen, it moves into gold. The yen and gold are both poised to begin what will likely be the largest rally of the past five years.
- Janet Yellen and her fellow Fed workers began their next meeting Tuesday, with an announcement expected this afternoon. Please click here now. Goldman Sachs economists feel the US stock market will have another “wet noodle” year, and that’s my view.
- Ben Bernanke was Wall Street’s best friend. He unveiled a bizarre QE program that ravaged Main Street. That program encouraged Wall Street to borrow money and use it for stock buybacks and dividends. In a nutshell, Ben Bernanke helped engineer what I call “marked to model price/earnings ratios” for US companies.
- Over the past seven years, Wall Street arguably spent more money on stock buybacks and dividends than it did on company operations, and the piper must be paid.
- Janet Yellen should not be confused with Ben Bernanke. She is Main Street’s friend. She proved it by tapering Ben’s horrific QE program off the board, exactly as I predicted she would. Now, she is poised to raise interest rates repeatedly, much to Wall Street’s chagrin.
- US citizens (Main Street) will then put money into bank accounts, and banks will lend that money in the fractional reserve system, reversing US money velocity.
- The US stock market will probably experience many more violent sell-offs as Janet hikes again, again, and again. That will fuel more FOREX trader safe haven buying of the yen, and of gold.
- Janet could hike rates this week, but I think she’ll give Wall Street a break. She’ll likely wait until the spring, before hammering global stock markets with her next hike.
- Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this daily bars oil chart. Horrifically, some oil producers are getting less than $20 a barrel for their oil right now. That’s because their oil is not the high quality “West Texas Intermediate” oil that the NYMEX uses for their benchmark pricing.
- Please click here now. Ominously, the storage tanks in Cushing, Oklahoma are in danger of reaching full capacity, and may have already briefly done so last week.
- US frackers are still pumping oil fiendishly, trying to pay substantial debt from unprofitable revenues. OPEC can produce profitably at much lower prices than the frackers, but OPEC governments need high revenues to prevent social unrest.
- While oil could now rally to my $37 – $41 short term target zone, storage tanks are likely to hit full capacity by then, triggering a terrible meltdown to the $10 – $20 zone.
- Civil unrest could occur in OPEC nations as the oil price tumbles, and Iran-Saudi tensions could grow, creating a gold buying frenzy by institutional investors. It’s hard to know how the US stock market would respond to such a horrific event, but I would suggest that the Western gold community may want to seek shelter from that storm, before it happens.
- On that note, please click here now. Double-click to enlarge. Barrick has just staged a solid upside breakout, and where Barrick goes, most gold stocks tend to go.
- Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this key GDX daily bars chart. The massive bull wedge pattern in play suggests than an “institutional awakening” is at hand for the gold stocks sector, as the oil supply glut and Janet’s rate hikes send global stock markets into a financial gulag. I’ll dare to suggest that equity-oriented money managers are soon going to view gold stocks as asset class champagne!
東網: 走資和加息 無得避！
金管局: 美國貨幣政策正常化已展開了，港元趨弱，資金流出港元和利率上升只是時間問題，亦是香港貨幣環境回復較正常狀況的必經階段。金管局將一如既往繼續密切監察市場，大家要小心利率風險，避免過度借貸。
東網: 陳寶明相信大鱷已駐重兵
陳寶明直指，小投資者已無法抽身，只能袖手旁觀，博反彈仍未是時候，因大市一反彈就被沽，大鱷已駐重兵。
國際大鱷可能已借定港元、在離岸市場借人民幣，伺機大舉沽空，令市場信心動搖，感染其他投資早加入沽貨行列。
國際大鱷可能已借定港元、在離岸市場借人民幣，伺機大舉沽空，令市場信心動搖，感染其他投資早加入沽貨行列。
東方日報B1：群鱷數千億伺機攻中港
東驥基金管理董事總經理龐寶林形容市況與1997年金融風暴相似，「風眼」在中港。中國經濟疲弱，香港面對的形勢更複雜、風險更大，當大鱷利用雙邊操控同時狙擊中港股匯，更加難抵擋。
當年有幸參於市場, 大啦啦唔見一百幾萬俾大鱷吸走, 受到教訓, 所以今次可以輕鬆睇金融市場大戰 !
大家一定要識保護自已, 無謂當清兵犧牲 !
S&P turns positive as oil rises; Street awaits Fed statement
歐美股市由跌轉升, 油價升返, 金價偏軟 !
finance.yahoo.comU.S. stocks traded mixed Wednesday ahead of the afternoon Fed statement release, as gains in oil offset pressure from some disappointing quarterly reports.
Brent and U.S. crude oil futures gained more than 2 percent to top $32 a barrel in late-morning trade. Weekly inventories showed a build of 8.4 million barrels, versus a rise of 4.0 million barrels last week, according to StreetAccount.
The Dow Jones industrial average traded about 70 points lower. Earlier, the index fell more than 150 points as both Apple (AAPL) and Boeing (BA) declined sharply. The two stocks were the greatest weights on the Dow, accounting for more than 100 points off the index, while Goldman Sachs (GS) contributed the most to gains as of 11:19 a.m. ET.
"I think it's earnings driving the market today and a disappointing result and outlook by Apple," said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at BMO Private Bank.
Boeing pared losses to hold about 8 percent lower, still on pace for its worst daily loss in more than a decade. The stock initially fell more than 9.5 percent after the firm gave full-year guidance below expectations , although the jetmaker reported earnings that beat on both the top and bottom line.
Shares of Apple fell more than 5.5 percent in late-morning trade after the iPhone maker reported fewer-than-expected unit sales of its flagship product, for the lowest growth in shipments since the iPhone was launched in 2007. Apple also forecast its first revenue drop in 13 years, citing some softness in the critical Chinese market, Reuters reported.
"It's weighing on stocks more broadly given its size and dominance," Ablin said.
The Nasdaq composite briefly fell more than 1 percent in morning
trade, as Apple declined and the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB)
(IBB) turned lower after briefly spiking 1 percent in opening trade.
The Dow transports briefly gained more than 1 percent in morning trade as United Continental (UAL) led advancers.
The Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled to release its meeting statement at 2 p.m. ET as it concludes its two-day meeting.
"If the (statement is) somewhat
dovish I think the market will actually move higher," said Randy
Frederick, managing director of trading and derivatives at Charles
Schwab, citing the gains in stocks after ECB President Mario Draghi's
comments last week raised hopes of further stimulus in the euro zone.
"I find it a little disappointing that the market wants the Fed to ease up," he said.
Analysts don't expect the
central bank to move on rates, but will scrutinize the statement for
signs of how much the Fed is watching recent global market activity and
indications on the future path of tightening.
"I think it's going to be volatile after 2 p.m.. I think people are
going to try to read a lot into the Fed statement," said Omar Aguilar,
chief investment officer of equities at Charles Schwab Investment
Management.
"The wording in the statement (and) when Janet Yellen goes in front of Congress will probably give an indication on the Fed's view on the state of the economy," he said.
Fed Chair Janet Yellen is scheduled to hold her semi-annual testimony before Congress in about two weeks.
In economic news, new home sales jumped to a seasonally adjusted
annual rate of 544,000 from an upwardly revised November figure of
491,000.
Treasury yields held higher, with the 2-year yield (U.S.:US2Y) at 0.87 percent and the 10-year yield (U.S.:US10Y) at 2.03 percent.
The U.S. dollar index traded about 0.4 percent lower, with the euro
edging towards $1.09 and the yen at 118.46 yen against the greenback.
In late-morning trade, the Dow Jones industrial average (Dow Jones Global Indexes: .DJI) declined 84 points, or 0.52 percent, to 16,084, with Boeing the greatest decliner and Goldman Sachs and United Technologies (UTX) the top advancers.
United Technologies, maker of Pratt & Whitney aircraft engines and Otis elevators, reaffirmed guidance but reported a 4.5 percent decline in fourth-quarter revenue as a strong dollar weighed.
The S&P 500 (^GSPC)
fell 5 points, or 0.27 percent, to 1,898, with information technology
leading four sectors lower and consumer staples leading gainers.
The Nasdaq (^IXIC) composite fell 41 points, or 0.90 percent, to 4,526.
Decliners were a step ahead of advancers on the New York Stock
Exchange, with an exchange volume of 306 million and a composite volume
of nearly 1.4 billion in late-morning trade.
Crude oil futures for March
delivery rose 31 cents to $31.75 a barrel on the New York Mercantile
Exchange. Gold futures for February delivery fell $3.90 to $1,116.30 an
ounce as of 11:22 a.m. ET.
—Reuters contributed to this report.
東網: 寨卡病毒殺到 由南美蔓延至歐亞地區
據世界衞生組織（WHO）統計指，美洲55個國家中，有21個國家發現有寨卡病毒感染病例。丹麥1名男子對寨卡病毒呈陽性反應，患者曾到訪拉丁美洲。瑞士
衞生當局周二亦證實，國內有2宗確診病例。疫情最嚴重的南美國家巴西已有超過16,000宗感染個案，哥倫比亞有超過13,000宗。
寨卡病毒肆虐多地，包括亞洲，早前一名24歲從泰國到台灣工作的勞工，亦確診染上寨卡病毒，台灣當局立即提升泰國及馬爾代夫等5個東南亞國家的旅遊警示。
寨卡病毒肆虐多地，包括亞洲，早前一名24歲從泰國到台灣工作的勞工，亦確診染上寨卡病毒，台灣當局立即提升泰國及馬爾代夫等5個東南亞國家的旅遊警示。
2016年1月27日 星期三
東網: 傳索羅斯或斥資25億美元沽空中國
「國際大鱷」索羅斯沽空亞洲市場的資金或涉25億美元(約195億港元), 索羅斯可能聲東擊西，只是說沽空亞幣，沒有說甚麼，只是市場人士直覺沽空人
民幣與港元，另有分析估計索羅斯或沽空馬來西亞幣、印尼盾等。
東網: 對沖大鱷阿克曼
對沖大鱷阿克曼：我正沽空人幣 未收手
傳人行叫停香港個別中資行人民幣銀行間拆借, 以進一步收緊離岸人民幣流動性，打擊離岸人民幣空頭；據指，收到窗口指導的銀行包括中銀香港和工銀亞洲。
傳人行叫停香港個別中資行人民幣銀行間拆借, 以進一步收緊離岸人民幣流動性，打擊離岸人民幣空頭；據指，收到窗口指導的銀行包括中銀香港和工銀亞洲。
人行戰大鱷 !
東網: 假金萡人民幣現深圳 膠製批發價僅2蚊人仔
深圳市市場與品質監管委羅湖局昨到涉事批發市場突擊檢查，現場查獲大量假黃金版百元人民幣，該些金箔人民幣與真人民幣不論圖樣、版型均無異，更附有假證書「證明」金萡人民幣含金量達99.9%。
Something Snapped At The Comex
實金倉減少, 而紙金合約多, 遲早唔夠分 !
www.zerohedge.comThere had been an eerie silence at the Comex in recent weeks, where after registered gold tumbled to a record 120K ounces in early December nothing much had changed, an in fact the total amount of physical deliverable aka "registered" gold, had stayed practically unchanged at 275K ounces all throughout January.
Until today, when in the latest update from the Comex vault, we learn that a whopping 201,345 ounces of Registered gold had been de-warranted at the owner's request, and shifted into the Eligible category, reducing the total mount of Comex Registered gold by 73%, from 275K to just 74K overnight.
This took place as a result of adjustments at vaults belonging to Scotia Mocatta (-95K ounces), HSBC (-85K ounces), and Brink's (-21K ounces).
Meanwhile, the aggregate gold open interest remained largely unchanged, at just about 40 million ounces.
This means that the ratio which we have been carefully tracking since August 2015 when it first blew out, namely the "coverage ratio" that shows the total number of gold claims relative to the physical gold that "backs" such potential delivery requests, - or simply said physical-to-paper gold dilution - just exploded.
As the chart below shows - which is disturbing without any further context - the 40 million ounces of gold open interest and the record low 74 thousand ounces of registered gold imply that as of Monday's close there was a whopping 542 ounces in potential paper claims to every ounces of physical gold. Call it a 0.2% dilution factor.
To be sure, skeptics have suggested that depending on how one reads the delivery contract, the Comex can simply yank from the pool of eligible gold and use it to satisfy delivery requests despite the explicit permission (or lack thereof) of the gold's owner.
Still, the reality that there are just two tons of gold to satisfy delivery requsts based on accepted protocols should in itself be troubling, ignoring the latent question why so many owners of physical gold are de-warranting their holdings.
Considering there are now less than 74,000 ounces of Registered gold at the Comex, or just over 2 tonnes, we may be about to find out how right, or wrong, the skeptics are, because at this rate the combined Registered vault gold could be depleted as soon as the next delivery request is satisfied. Or isn't.
Asian stocks struggle as headwinds grow; gold shines
finance.yahoo.com
By Saikat Chatterjee
By Saikat Chatterjee
HONG KONG (Reuters) - Asian
stocks struggled to hold early gains on Wednesday as several indicators
screamed caution, and a relapse in oil prices made sentiment even more
fragile ahead of a Federal Reserve policy statement due later.
Technology
giant Apple Inc's (AAPL.O) forecast of its first revenue drop in 13
years signalled a risk of diminishing corporate profitability and more
downgrades.
Despite
a weak bounce of 0.6 percent, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific
shares outside Japan was holding near a four-year low hit last week.
Australian shares (.AXJO) fell 0.8 percent.
With Chinese stocks showing
fresh signs of weakness after a 6.4 percent tumble in the previous
session, Asia failed to draw much support from an overnight bounce on
Wall Street, where upbeat earnings results and a bounce in crude oil
pushed up the Dow (.DJI) 1.8 percent and the S&P 500 (.SPX) 1.4
percent.
"There
are concerns Apple is reaching the limits of iPhone growth and China
won’t make up for a slowdown in the rest of the world," Mark Matthews,
head of Asia research and a managing director at Bank Julius Baer &
Co. in Singapore wrote in a note.
"Having
said that, U.S. stocks are still expensive on the whole. But there are
really interesting opportunities elsewhere, in select bombed-out bonds
and currencies."
Benchmark stock indexes in China
were trading between 1 to 2 percent lower in opening trades. China's
markets have slumped about 22 percent so far this year, knocking nearly
12 trillion yuan ($1.8 trillion) off the value of the indexes as of
Tuesday.
Risk
appetite was also subdued as crude oil prices resumed falling and ahead
of the closely-watched Fed policy meeting outcome later in the day.
Correlations between oil (LCOc1) and U.S. stocks (.SPX) have risen
sharply to 0.9 percent.
"The
Fed's assessment of international developments and the implications for
the U.S. economy and financial markets should be focus for discussion,"
wrote Sean Callow, senior currency strategist at Westpac in Sydney.
"With
only a short statement, we expect the Fed to repeat that normalization
will proceed as data allows in 2016, though markets will be watching for
any shift to a more dovish stance."
Prospects
of the two-day Fed meeting concluding with a dovish statement nudged
U.S. Treasury yields down. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield
dipped about 2 basis points overnight. Futures were implying roughly
two more rate hikes this year, lesser than the Fed's own projections.
U.S. crude (CLc1) surged 3.7
percent on Tuesday after OPEC renewed calls for rival producers to cut
supply alongside its members.
But
the bounce proved fleeting for the volatile commodity, which struck
13-year lows this month with a China-led global economic slowdown
expected to curb demand. U.S. crude (CLc1) was last down 2 percent at
$30.85 a barrel.
The
drop in commodities and the ongoing weakness in stocks burnished gold's
appeal (XAU=) with the metal trading at a 12-week high.
In
currencies, the dollar held on to gains made against the safe-haven yen
following the ebb in risk aversion during the U.S. trading session. The
greenback stood a shade higher at 118.11 yen (JPY=) after bouncing
overnight from 117.65.
The euro was nearly flat at $1.0860 (EUR=). The Australian dollar dipped 0.1 percent to $0.7031 (AUD=D4).
(Additional reporting by Shinichi Saoshiro in TOKYO; Editing by Simon Cameron-Moore)
東網: 業績理想 道指高開157點
聯儲局展開兩日議息會議之際，中國股市再插，但油價回升加上美企業績理想，道指開市升157點，報16,042點；納指升23點，報4,542點；標指升8點，報1,885點。
還以為炒QE, 股市、金銀價和油價都升 !
2016年1月26日 星期二
Australian Property in Crash Mode?
www.armstrongeconomics.com
The Australian government has now ordered the sale of residential properties bought in breach of foreign ownership laws. The anti-foreign investor in property in Australia reflects the very high Marxist influence in Australia. The general perception was that housing prices were being driven higher caused by offshore buyers.
Interesting enough, our real estate models on Australia peaked in April and entered a 3 quarter crash mode into the 1st quarter 2016. There should be a little bounce, but this will probably be just a sideways pause.
The interesting part is again this is illustrating that absolutely everything is interconnected. The attack of foreign investors as the sole cause of property rising demonstrates that people are blind to the collapse in confidence in government as capital tries to get off the grid with dangerous banks and tax hungry politicians.
However, the share market has elected THREE MONTHLY BEARISH REVERSALS from the April High of 2015. Note that the Australian government announced it would attack foreign investors in full-blown Marxist spirit in May 2015. That is when the government announced an amnesty of sorts for foreign investors who had breached Australia’s residential property rules. They gave them seven months – until December 1 – to voluntarily come forward and disclose ownership. In return, foreign investors were allowed a prolonged 12 months to sell their property and were protected from criminal prosecution – yes that is CRIMINAL! They would actually imprison a foreigner for daring to buy property in Australia. Unimaginable!
This anti-foreign capital position adopted in Australia is precisely in the opposite direction of the United States which just revoked all restrictions on foreigners buying US property. Additionally, Australia’s anti-foreign capital investment in real estate is having an impact on its stock market as well. Major investors from Asia are simply turning to the USA and so have commented to us that they are writing off Australia as very anti-capitalist country that cannot be trusted as it panders to leftists. Interesting how Australia and Britain are suffering from very strong leftist movements. In the States, we are seeing it to a lessor degree with Bernie Sanders. This is the danger we face globally. The tree is cut, which way does it fall? Freedom or Communism? With so many people claiming the problem is the rich, that leads us to a total loss of freedom.
The Australian government has now ordered the sale of residential properties bought in breach of foreign ownership laws. The anti-foreign investor in property in Australia reflects the very high Marxist influence in Australia. The general perception was that housing prices were being driven higher caused by offshore buyers.
Interesting enough, our real estate models on Australia peaked in April and entered a 3 quarter crash mode into the 1st quarter 2016. There should be a little bounce, but this will probably be just a sideways pause.
The interesting part is again this is illustrating that absolutely everything is interconnected. The attack of foreign investors as the sole cause of property rising demonstrates that people are blind to the collapse in confidence in government as capital tries to get off the grid with dangerous banks and tax hungry politicians.
However, the share market has elected THREE MONTHLY BEARISH REVERSALS from the April High of 2015. Note that the Australian government announced it would attack foreign investors in full-blown Marxist spirit in May 2015. That is when the government announced an amnesty of sorts for foreign investors who had breached Australia’s residential property rules. They gave them seven months – until December 1 – to voluntarily come forward and disclose ownership. In return, foreign investors were allowed a prolonged 12 months to sell their property and were protected from criminal prosecution – yes that is CRIMINAL! They would actually imprison a foreigner for daring to buy property in Australia. Unimaginable!
This anti-foreign capital position adopted in Australia is precisely in the opposite direction of the United States which just revoked all restrictions on foreigners buying US property. Additionally, Australia’s anti-foreign capital investment in real estate is having an impact on its stock market as well. Major investors from Asia are simply turning to the USA and so have commented to us that they are writing off Australia as very anti-capitalist country that cannot be trusted as it panders to leftists. Interesting how Australia and Britain are suffering from very strong leftist movements. In the States, we are seeing it to a lessor degree with Bernie Sanders. This is the danger we face globally. The tree is cut, which way does it fall? Freedom or Communism? With so many people claiming the problem is the rich, that leads us to a total loss of freedom.
東網: 英或6月23日公投應否脫歐 金融市場恐大鑊
英國政府計劃於6月23日舉行公投，以決定應否留在「歐元區」。
據了解，英國首相卡梅倫在決定公投前，仍需在2月18日得到歐盟委員會同意。若結果是不同意，6月23日將很大機會不會有公投，或推延至9月，因6及7月正值暑假；但又不會推至2017年，因法國及德國將舉行大選。
據了解，英國首相卡梅倫在決定公投前，仍需在2月18日得到歐盟委員會同意。若結果是不同意，6月23日將很大機會不會有公投，或推延至9月，因6及7月正值暑假；但又不會推至2017年，因法國及德國將舉行大選。
"Gangs" Of "All-Male" Moroccan Migrant Children “Take Over” Stockholm Train Station; Steal, Grope, Beat Women
根本是有預計的陰招來損毀歐洲 !
www.zerohedge.com
On Sunday, we learned
that despite the best efforts of German cartoonists, some refugees are
still having a hard time understanding how to behave at public pools.
European authorities, increasingly desperate to salvage the
“yes we can” refugee narrative in the face of mounting evidence that it
may be well nigh impossible to integrate two vastly divergent cultures,
have scrambled to put together integration guides and design brochures
and pamphlets aimed at “explaining” Western European societal norms to
the millions of asylum seekers that now call the bloc home.
Most of the integration guides make some reference to the
fact that in polite culture, it’s not appropriate to grope women even if
they appear, by Mid-East standards anyway, to be scantily clad. On New
Year’s Eve, women reported being sexual assaulted by dozens of “Arab”
men in Germany, Finland, and Austria among other countries and since
then, officials have focused increasingly on what certainly appears to
be a kind of “groping” epidemic perpetrated by asylum seekers.
But it’s not just the “groping.” If Bild is to be believed,
some refugees recently engaged in what one might call some
“shenanigans” at the Johannisbad baths in Zwickau. Here are the rather
disconcerting details from a clumsy (yet exceedingly amusing) Google
translation of the original German:
“According bathrooms GmbH have masturbated refugees when visiting swimming baths in pools and emptied their bowels in the water. They are women in sauna harassed and have tried to storm the ladies' locker!”
Needless to say, that won’t do anything to calm Europeans’ frayed nerves.
Far-right Dutch politician Geert Wilders even went so far as to suggest that the “Islamic testosterone bombs” be “locked up” in asylum centers for the sake of “the women.”
On Monday, we get the latest bit of migrant news out of Europe, this time from Sweden where “gangs” of Moroccan migrant children have apparently “taken over” the Stockholm train station where, to let The Daily Mail tell it, they are “stealing, groping” and beating women. Here's the story:
So apparently, dozens of nine-year-olds and preteenagers have effectively taken control of a major transportation hub and transformed it into their own personal crime den where security guards are assaulted on site, women are "groped", and girls are "slapped in the face" for trying to protect themselves.Swedish police warns that Stockholm's main train station has become unsafe after being ‘taken over’ by dozens of Moroccan street children.
The all-male migrant teen gangs are spreading terror in the centre of the Swedish capital, stealing, groping girls and assaulting security guards, according to Stockholm police.
Members of the gangs, some as young as nine, roam central Stockholm day and night, refusing help provided by the Swedish authorities.
Sweden has seen a dramatic increase in the number of Moroccan under-18s who apply for asylum without a parent or guardian in the past four years, with many later running away from the housing provided to live on the streets in the capital.
Stockholm police estimate that at least 200 Moroccan street children move in the area around the main train station in the centre of the capital, sleeping rough, and living off criminal activity.
'These guys are a huge problem for us. They steal stuff everywhere and assault security guards at the central station,' one police officer told SVT.
'They grope girls between their legs, and slap them in the face when they protest. All police officers are aware of this.
"The gangs are made up of orphans who have grown up on the streets of Casablanca and Tanger in Morocco, where authorities estimate there are around 800,000 homeless 'street children," the Mail continues, adding that "Swedish migration authorities first reported and increase in Moroccan unaccompanied minors applying for asylum in 2012, when 145 arrived, a number which more than doubled in 2013."
Some 500 Moroccan children applied for asylum but around a fifth of those who were placed with foster families or put in group homes ran away and "disappeared off the radar."
It would appear that these missing children are now dug in at the train station where they have brought authorities "to their knees."
So far, police have attempted to solve the problem by arresting the children for "public drunkenness" in order to "get them off the streets for a while." Clearly, that isn't a viable long-term strategy and so, Interior Minister Anders Ygeman now says Sweden is set to round them all up Trump style and ship them back to Morocco, or as Ygeman puts it, "we are in agreement that this is a joint problem for us to solve, and that we both need to find ways of identifying these people and achieve repatriation."
U.S. Stocks Extend Losses as Crude Slump Worsens; Bonds Advance
www.bloomberg.com
U.S. stocks halted a two-day rally as renewed declines in the price of crude set the tone on global financial markets, dragging down currencies of resource exporters and stoking demand for havens from gold to Treasuries.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 index extended declines in late-morning trading as American crude’s slide approached 5 percent, undoing part of a 21 percent surge to end last week. U.S. and European followed oil lower after rising in its wake at the end of last week, while yields on 10-year Treasury notes fell three basis points 2.02 percent. The Russian ruble fell against all of its 31 major counterparts, while gold futures jumped 1 percent.
Even after last week’s recovery, crude has fallen about 16 percent this year amid brimming U.S. stockpiles and the prospect of additional Iranian exports. Lower oil prices have amplified concern global growth is slowing as they also point to weaker industrial demand. With energy and commodity companies sliding, a measure of the correlation between global stocks and oil prices over the past 120 days has climbed to 0.5, the highest since 2013.
“A weaker oil market to start the day is going to take a little bit of the bloom off the rose from last week’s rally,” said Michael James, managing director of equity trading at Wedbush Securities Inc. in Los Angeles. “The market’s going down with the price of oil, that’s been the way it’s been trading. We’re certainly due for a little pullback given the massive upside we saw.”
Stock
The S&P 500 fell 0.8 percent at 11:17 a.m. in New York, after a 2 percent rally on Friday. Equities are on track for their worst January since 2009 amid worries that China’s slowdown will weigh on global growth, with plunging oil prices exacerbating those concerns. The S&P 500 sank to a 21-month low last week before rallying.
Halliburton Co. declined Monday after posting a quarterly loss, and Exxon Mobil Corp. slide following crude’s biggest two-day rally in more than seven years. McDonald’s Corp. gained after the fast-food giant’s earnings beat analysts’ forecasts. Tyco International Plc surged 8.6 percent after Johnson Controls Inc. agreed to merge with the company.
In Europe, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA was little changed after a 47 percent rally in the previous two sessions. Greece’s ASE Index climbed 0.6 percent after Standard & Poor’s upgraded the country to B- from CCC+, with a stable outlook.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate dropped as much as 4.1 percent. Saudi Arabian Oil Co. is maintaining investment in oil and natural gas projects as it studies options to sell shares in its parent company and refining and chemical operations, Chairman Khalid Al-Falih said Monday. The state-run producer, known as Saudi Aramco, can sustain low oil prices for “a long, long time,” he told reporters in Riyadh.
Gold advanced as investors weighed the prospects of the metal as a haven. Bullion for immediate delivery rose 0.6 percent to $1,104.40 an ounce, according to Bloomberg generic pricing. The metal climbed 0.8 percent last week as turmoil in global stocks renewed interest in the metal as a store of value.
Copper in London added 0.2 percent to $4,451.50 a metric ton, while nickel dropped 0.7 percent to $8,640 a ton.
Currencies
The yen halted a two-day decline after Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda showed little appetite for an immediate expansion of stimulus as the central bank prepares to set policy this week.
Japan’s currency has gained versus all its 16 major counterparts since the start of the year as a China-led stock selloff and a tumble in oil prices spurred demand for haven assets. Hedge funds and other large speculators raised net bullish yen positions to the highest in almost four years last week. The BOJ is scheduled to meet Jan. 28-29 and announce its monetary-policy decision on Jan. 29.
Kuroda said in an interview on Jan. 22 in Davos, Switzerland, that “we don’t think the current market situation has been affecting corporate behavior unduly.”
The Canadian dollar and Mexico’s peso declined with the ruble as currencies of commodity producers fell with crude. South Korea’s won strengthened 0.5 percent before data forecast to show South Korea’s economic growth quickened.
Bonds
U.S. Treasuries rose for the first time in three days. The Federal Open Market Committee is set to announce its next rate decision on Jan. 27, though traders aren’t pricing in the probability of the next increase until September.
“We saw a pretty simultaneous slump in oil and equity futures,” said John Davies, an interest-rate strategist at Standard Chartered in London. “U.S.
Treasury yields took the cue accordingly and the curve has bull flattened in response,” he said referring to longer-dated bond yields falling faster than those on shorter-maturity debt.
The 10-year note yield fell two basis points to 2.03 percent, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader data. The 30-year bond yield declined three basis points to 2.80 percent. The yield on 10-year German bonds was one basis point lower at 0.48 percent.
The cost of insuring investment-grade corporate debt was little changed, with the Markit iTraxx Europe Index of credit-default swaps holding at 93 basis points. The non-investment grade Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover Index was also little changed at 371 basis points.
Emerging Markets
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose 0.8 percent. Benchmarks in Taiwan, Indonesia and the Philippines climbed more than 1 percent while shares in the Gulf fell with oil.
The Shanghai Composite Index advanced 0.8 percent and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index of mainland shares in Hong Kong also climbed 0.8 percent. The Shanghai gauge, whose gyrations at the start of the year sparked the global selloff, ended up 1.3 percent on Friday as China signaled it would curb overcapacity in industries such as coal that have been dragging down economic growth.
China has lowered steel production by about 90 million tons “in recent years” and will push to cut a further 100 million to 150 million tons, while “strictly controlling” steel capacity increases and halting new coal mine approvals, according to a Sunday statement on the Chinese government’s website, citing a State Council meeting on Jan. 22 chaired by Premier Li Keqiang. No time line was mentioned.
U.S. stocks halted a two-day rally as renewed declines in the price of crude set the tone on global financial markets, dragging down currencies of resource exporters and stoking demand for havens from gold to Treasuries.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 index extended declines in late-morning trading as American crude’s slide approached 5 percent, undoing part of a 21 percent surge to end last week. U.S. and European followed oil lower after rising in its wake at the end of last week, while yields on 10-year Treasury notes fell three basis points 2.02 percent. The Russian ruble fell against all of its 31 major counterparts, while gold futures jumped 1 percent.
Even after last week’s recovery, crude has fallen about 16 percent this year amid brimming U.S. stockpiles and the prospect of additional Iranian exports. Lower oil prices have amplified concern global growth is slowing as they also point to weaker industrial demand. With energy and commodity companies sliding, a measure of the correlation between global stocks and oil prices over the past 120 days has climbed to 0.5, the highest since 2013.
“A weaker oil market to start the day is going to take a little bit of the bloom off the rose from last week’s rally,” said Michael James, managing director of equity trading at Wedbush Securities Inc. in Los Angeles. “The market’s going down with the price of oil, that’s been the way it’s been trading. We’re certainly due for a little pullback given the massive upside we saw.”
Stock
The S&P 500 fell 0.8 percent at 11:17 a.m. in New York, after a 2 percent rally on Friday. Equities are on track for their worst January since 2009 amid worries that China’s slowdown will weigh on global growth, with plunging oil prices exacerbating those concerns. The S&P 500 sank to a 21-month low last week before rallying.
Halliburton Co. declined Monday after posting a quarterly loss, and Exxon Mobil Corp. slide following crude’s biggest two-day rally in more than seven years. McDonald’s Corp. gained after the fast-food giant’s earnings beat analysts’ forecasts. Tyco International Plc surged 8.6 percent after Johnson Controls Inc. agreed to merge with the company.
In Europe, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA was little changed after a 47 percent rally in the previous two sessions. Greece’s ASE Index climbed 0.6 percent after Standard & Poor’s upgraded the country to B- from CCC+, with a stable outlook.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate dropped as much as 4.1 percent. Saudi Arabian Oil Co. is maintaining investment in oil and natural gas projects as it studies options to sell shares in its parent company and refining and chemical operations, Chairman Khalid Al-Falih said Monday. The state-run producer, known as Saudi Aramco, can sustain low oil prices for “a long, long time,” he told reporters in Riyadh.
Gold advanced as investors weighed the prospects of the metal as a haven. Bullion for immediate delivery rose 0.6 percent to $1,104.40 an ounce, according to Bloomberg generic pricing. The metal climbed 0.8 percent last week as turmoil in global stocks renewed interest in the metal as a store of value.
Copper in London added 0.2 percent to $4,451.50 a metric ton, while nickel dropped 0.7 percent to $8,640 a ton.
Currencies
The yen halted a two-day decline after Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda showed little appetite for an immediate expansion of stimulus as the central bank prepares to set policy this week.
Japan’s currency has gained versus all its 16 major counterparts since the start of the year as a China-led stock selloff and a tumble in oil prices spurred demand for haven assets. Hedge funds and other large speculators raised net bullish yen positions to the highest in almost four years last week. The BOJ is scheduled to meet Jan. 28-29 and announce its monetary-policy decision on Jan. 29.
Kuroda said in an interview on Jan. 22 in Davos, Switzerland, that “we don’t think the current market situation has been affecting corporate behavior unduly.”
The Canadian dollar and Mexico’s peso declined with the ruble as currencies of commodity producers fell with crude. South Korea’s won strengthened 0.5 percent before data forecast to show South Korea’s economic growth quickened.
Bonds
U.S. Treasuries rose for the first time in three days. The Federal Open Market Committee is set to announce its next rate decision on Jan. 27, though traders aren’t pricing in the probability of the next increase until September.
“We saw a pretty simultaneous slump in oil and equity futures,” said John Davies, an interest-rate strategist at Standard Chartered in London. “U.S.
Treasury yields took the cue accordingly and the curve has bull flattened in response,” he said referring to longer-dated bond yields falling faster than those on shorter-maturity debt.
The 10-year note yield fell two basis points to 2.03 percent, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader data. The 30-year bond yield declined three basis points to 2.80 percent. The yield on 10-year German bonds was one basis point lower at 0.48 percent.
The cost of insuring investment-grade corporate debt was little changed, with the Markit iTraxx Europe Index of credit-default swaps holding at 93 basis points. The non-investment grade Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover Index was also little changed at 371 basis points.
Emerging Markets
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose 0.8 percent. Benchmarks in Taiwan, Indonesia and the Philippines climbed more than 1 percent while shares in the Gulf fell with oil.
The Shanghai Composite Index advanced 0.8 percent and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index of mainland shares in Hong Kong also climbed 0.8 percent. The Shanghai gauge, whose gyrations at the start of the year sparked the global selloff, ended up 1.3 percent on Friday as China signaled it would curb overcapacity in industries such as coal that have been dragging down economic growth.
China has lowered steel production by about 90 million tons “in recent years” and will push to cut a further 100 million to 150 million tons, while “strictly controlling” steel capacity increases and halting new coal mine approvals, according to a Sunday statement on the Chinese government’s website, citing a State Council meeting on Jan. 22 chaired by Premier Li Keqiang. No time line was mentioned.
2016年1月25日 星期一
Markets Are In The "Eye Of The Storm", Trader Warns
www.zerohedge.com
Echoing that sentiment is FX trader Mark Cudmore who is out this morning warning that while the blizzard of 2016 may have come and gone, markets are likely just in the “eye of the storm.”
* * *
From Mark Cudmore, writing for Bloomberg
While the worst of the U.S.’s epic winter blizzard has officially passed, it’s less likely that the storm in financial markets can also be said to have ended.
Traders on the NYSE clapped and cheered when the closing
bell sounded on Friday as though a couple of green closes somehow made
up for the outright chaos that’s reigned throughout the month.
Oil may technically have entered a new “bull” market and
the yuan may have momentarily stabilized, but a quick look at the
fundamentals for crude and the backdrop for the global economy suggests
any respite will be fleeting.
Echoing that sentiment is FX trader Mark Cudmore who is out this morning warning that while the blizzard of 2016 may have come and gone, markets are likely just in the “eye of the storm.”
* * *
From Mark Cudmore, writing for Bloomberg
While the worst of the U.S.’s epic winter blizzard has officially passed, it’s less likely that the storm in financial markets can also be said to have ended.
- Thursday’s rally continued strongly into the weekend close, resulting in most global assets recording a positive week. But once analyzed in the broader context, it seems likely this may only be a bear-market bounce
- Bear-markets often provide the most extreme moves in both directions because lower risk-appetite reduces liquidity on both sides of the market. Also, technicals gain supremacy over fundamentals which loosens anchors to “value” and encourages out-sized reactions to any changes in sentiment
- Technically, there is little out there for bulls to cling to. While oil may now officially be in a “bull” market after its biggest two-day rally in seven years, it is still down 12% year-to-date and firmly in a medium-term downtrend. That applies even more clearly to other important commodities, such as copper
- Likewise, across longer-term charts for stock markets, emerging-market currencies and high-yield credit, the recent bounce is barely noticeable. And the risk-barometer that is EUR/JPY closed below the critical 200-week moving average for a second straight week
- Fundamentals didn’t drive this year’s weakness, so it will be harder for positive fundamentals to prompt a recovery’’
- Perhaps the two most significant supports for the market have been that the Chinese yuan stabilized and the European Central Bank indicated that further monetary easing is imminent. But both of these are arguably reactions to negatives rather than genuinely new positive drivers
- The relief rally probably has more to run but it’s hard to believe the worst of 2016 is behind us. And there are even reports that Storm Jonas may crop up again in a couple of days – on the other side of the Atlantic
Legend Warns Global Panic Is Coming But Also Exposes What Is Really Terrifying
kingworldnews.com
On the heels of another wild trading week in global markets, today the man who has become legendary for his predictions on QE, historic moves in currencies, and major global events, warned panic is coming in global markets but he also exposed what is really terrifying.
Egon von Greyerz: “Eric, the current deflationary implosion that we are seeing in markets and commodities is soon going to turn into a hyperinflationary explosion. The chaos that is happening now is no surprise to the followers of KWN.
Downside Is Increasing
Draghi gave a clear signal this week that the ECB will need to review their monetary policy by the next meeting in March. As Draghi said, ‘Downside risk is increasing and inflation is significantly lower than the December outlook.’…
Banking Crisis Accelerates In Europe But Who Is In Trouble?…
Egon von Greyerz continues: “Let’s face it, Eric, central banks always get their forecasts wrong. The southern European economy is collapsing and so is the financial system, especially banks in Italy, Greece, Portugal and Spain. Italy now has non-performing loans that total 17 percent of GDP. That figure is absolutely enormous and cannot be sustained.
Among Others – Deutsche Bank
But the European banking system has never recovered since the 2007 – 2009 crisis. Deutsche Bank, for example, has $97 trillion in derivatives exposure, which is 20-times greater than German GDP. And the German stock market has fallen 20 percent since November 2015, so we will have to keep an eye on Deutsche Bank.
The downturn in global markets is now having a major impact on confidence, as fear is coming back into the European economy. This trend is going to accelerate and I would be surprised if the ECB waits until March to launch another stimulus package. It’s absolutely amazing to think of how totally out of synch these central banks are.
But what the Fed did is even stronger proof that central banks don’t know what is happening. The timing of the rate hike could not have been worse. They should have increased rates 2 – 3 years ago in order to choke off the spectacular bonanza in asset markets. Instead, the Fed waited until the economy turned down to increase rates.
But as I said in December, right after the Fed raised rates, there won’t be any further increases in coming months. Instead, there will be a rate reduction very soon, accompanied by QE, and the Fed is likely to join the ECB with negative rates in coming months.
Fed & ECB To Launch Massive QE Programs
So we will see the ECB and the Fed join the central banks of Japan and China with massive money printing programs. The Bank of England and the IMF will also join in, and during 2016 we are likely to see the biggest money printing program in history. Remember that global debt has gone up 10-times since the early 1990s to $230 trillion. The QE that we will see in 2016 and beyond will be at least of that magnitude and probably even higher as the $1.5 quadrillion derivatives bubble bursts.
The problem is that this time the QE won’t have any lasting effect. To pile a few hundred trillion dollars of debt onto a world that can neither finance nor repay the existing debt can only exacerbate the inevitable implosion. But before that the world will experience the most incredible hyperinflation. This will of course have nothing to do with demand for goods and services, but only with collapsing currencies.
In my KWN article last week, I showed that hyperinflation is already on its way in many countries such as Argentina, Brazil and Russia. When the dollar soon collapses, we will see the same thing happening in the United States as well as many other countries. In the last 20 years, central banks have exploded their balance sheets 10-times by printing $20 trillion. But in coming years their balance sheets will expand much more than 10-times and the world will drown under its own debt.
Panic Is Coming But Here Is What Is Really Terrifying
We have not yet seen panic in markets but that is likely to happen this year and it will be on a much larger scale than 2007 – 2009. What is really terrifying this time is that we will have large-scale social unrest and civil war in many countries.
I believe that most followers of KWN know that physical gold and silver will be one of the ways to protect assets from total destruction. It’s irrelevant whether or not gold briefly hits a new low or not. What is critical is that precious metals are the most important insurance to hold during the global financial meltdown that is already under way.”
On the heels of another wild trading week in global markets, today the man who has become legendary for his predictions on QE, historic moves in currencies, and major global events, warned panic is coming in global markets but he also exposed what is really terrifying.
Egon von Greyerz: “Eric, the current deflationary implosion that we are seeing in markets and commodities is soon going to turn into a hyperinflationary explosion. The chaos that is happening now is no surprise to the followers of KWN.
Downside Is Increasing
Draghi gave a clear signal this week that the ECB will need to review their monetary policy by the next meeting in March. As Draghi said, ‘Downside risk is increasing and inflation is significantly lower than the December outlook.’…
Banking Crisis Accelerates In Europe But Who Is In Trouble?…
Egon von Greyerz continues: “Let’s face it, Eric, central banks always get their forecasts wrong. The southern European economy is collapsing and so is the financial system, especially banks in Italy, Greece, Portugal and Spain. Italy now has non-performing loans that total 17 percent of GDP. That figure is absolutely enormous and cannot be sustained.
Among Others – Deutsche Bank
But the European banking system has never recovered since the 2007 – 2009 crisis. Deutsche Bank, for example, has $97 trillion in derivatives exposure, which is 20-times greater than German GDP. And the German stock market has fallen 20 percent since November 2015, so we will have to keep an eye on Deutsche Bank.
The downturn in global markets is now having a major impact on confidence, as fear is coming back into the European economy. This trend is going to accelerate and I would be surprised if the ECB waits until March to launch another stimulus package. It’s absolutely amazing to think of how totally out of synch these central banks are.
But what the Fed did is even stronger proof that central banks don’t know what is happening. The timing of the rate hike could not have been worse. They should have increased rates 2 – 3 years ago in order to choke off the spectacular bonanza in asset markets. Instead, the Fed waited until the economy turned down to increase rates.
But as I said in December, right after the Fed raised rates, there won’t be any further increases in coming months. Instead, there will be a rate reduction very soon, accompanied by QE, and the Fed is likely to join the ECB with negative rates in coming months.
Fed & ECB To Launch Massive QE Programs
So we will see the ECB and the Fed join the central banks of Japan and China with massive money printing programs. The Bank of England and the IMF will also join in, and during 2016 we are likely to see the biggest money printing program in history. Remember that global debt has gone up 10-times since the early 1990s to $230 trillion. The QE that we will see in 2016 and beyond will be at least of that magnitude and probably even higher as the $1.5 quadrillion derivatives bubble bursts.
The problem is that this time the QE won’t have any lasting effect. To pile a few hundred trillion dollars of debt onto a world that can neither finance nor repay the existing debt can only exacerbate the inevitable implosion. But before that the world will experience the most incredible hyperinflation. This will of course have nothing to do with demand for goods and services, but only with collapsing currencies.
In my KWN article last week, I showed that hyperinflation is already on its way in many countries such as Argentina, Brazil and Russia. When the dollar soon collapses, we will see the same thing happening in the United States as well as many other countries. In the last 20 years, central banks have exploded their balance sheets 10-times by printing $20 trillion. But in coming years their balance sheets will expand much more than 10-times and the world will drown under its own debt.
Panic Is Coming But Here Is What Is Really Terrifying
We have not yet seen panic in markets but that is likely to happen this year and it will be on a much larger scale than 2007 – 2009. What is really terrifying this time is that we will have large-scale social unrest and civil war in many countries.
I believe that most followers of KWN know that physical gold and silver will be one of the ways to protect assets from total destruction. It’s irrelevant whether or not gold briefly hits a new low or not. What is critical is that precious metals are the most important insurance to hold during the global financial meltdown that is already under way.”
The Insanity of Government & Socialism – Complete Failure
Martin Amstrong 都說鳳凰, 金融須死才能翻生 !
www.armstrongeconomics.comThere is NO WAY OUT of this mess. We simply have to crash and burn. The Phoenix is the image of this process. The rising from the ashes. This is ultimately the symbol of the cycle. The phoenix comes from Greek mythology, and is reputed to be a long-lived bird that is cyclically regenerated or reborn.
The phoenix obtains new life by rising from the ashes of its predecessor.
According to some texts, the phoenix could live over 500 years before rebirth. According to the people of Heliopolis in Egypt, the Phoenix came to that city once in five hundred years to bury his father. By that they did not mean an actual father, for this creature was the only creature capable of renewing and reproducing its own being; the process of self-referral – the perfect cycle.
now新聞台德銀預言】聯匯或2047年前結束
德意志指，聯繫匯率制度有本港外匯儲備支持，但預期制度不會維持至2047年，估計在經濟停滯及通縮壓力下，或會令當局自願讓港元貶值。
里昂表示，港元風險在於市場炒作當局或因通縮壓力而放棄聯匯，觀乎實際有效匯率，港匯亦會偏高，若資金持續外流導致金管局需要入市，將會令拆息抽高，不利股市及樓市。
外資不死心, 繼續唱淡 !
2016年1月24日 星期日
東網: 大媽空軍殺到 港股後市添危
大量大媽參終沽空, 交易金額平均每宗沽空交易都有二、三百萬元,目標主要是他們熟悉及受歡迎的中資股，例如內銀股等 !
搞乜呀, 大媽對大鱷 ?
真係要靠邊站睇大戲 !
Norway's Biggest Bank Demands Cash Ban
愈來愈多國家轉用電子銀行, 而禁人民用現金, 說是說可以慳造現金的成本, 又可以防止人趒脫, 其實是在財富管制 !
如果香港和大陸都跟隨, 真係要認真考慮下有乜野風險先 !
依家去銀行開人民幣戶口都自動幫你開網上銀行戶口, 己預咗俾你地轉形 !
www.zerohedge.comThe war on cash is escalating faster than many had imagined. Having documented the growing calls from the elites and propagandist explanations of the "benefits" to their serfs over the last few years, with China, and The IMF entering the "cashless society" call most recently, International Business Times reports that Norway - suffering from its own economic collapse as oil revenues crash - has joined its Scandi peers Denmark and Sweden in a call to "ban cash."
By way of background, as we explained previously, What exactly does a “war on cash” mean?
It means governments are limiting the use of cash and a variety of official-mouthpiece economists are calling for the outright abolition of cash. Authorities are both restricting the amount of cash that can be withdrawn from banks, and limiting what can be purchased with cash.
These limits are broadly called “capital controls.”
Why Now? Why are governments suddenly so keen to ban physical cash?
The answer appears to be that the banks and government authorities are anticipating bail-ins, steeply negative interest rates and hefty fees on cash, and they want to close any opening regular depositors might have to escape these forms of officially sanctioned theft. The escape mechanism from bail-ins and fees on cash deposits is physical cash, and hence the sudden flurry of calls to eliminate cash as a relic of a bygone age — that is, an age when commoners had some way to safeguard their money from bail-ins and bankers' control.
Forcing Those With Cash To Spend or Gamble Their Cash
The conventional answer voiced by Mr. Buiter is that recession and credit contraction result from households and enterprises hoarding cash instead of spending it. The solution to recession is thus to force all those stingy cash hoarders to spend their money.
And the benefits of a cashless society to banks and governments are self-evident:
1. Every financial transaction can be taxed.2. Every financial transaction can be charged a fee.
3. Bank runs are eliminated.
In fractional reserve systems such as ours, banks are only required to hold a fraction of their assets in cash. Thus a bank might only have 1 percent of its assets in cash. If customers fear the bank might be insolvent, they crowd the bank and demand their deposits in physical cash. The bank quickly runs out of physical cash and closes its doors, further fueling a panic.
The federal government began insuring deposits after the Great Depression triggered the collapse of hundreds of banks, and that guarantee limited bank runs, as depositors no longer needed to fear a bank closing would mean their money on deposit was lost.
But since people could conceivably sense a disturbance in the Financial Force and decide to turn digital cash into physical cash as a precaution, eliminating physical cash also eliminates the possibility of bank runs, as there will be no form of cash that isn’t controlled by banks.
So, when the dust has settled who ultimately benefits by this war on cash - government and the central banks, pure and simple.
Which explains why Norway's biggest bank, DNB, has called for the country to stop using cash which is just the latest move in a country that has been leading the global charge toward electronic money in recent years, with several banks already not offering cash in their branch offices and some industries seeking to cut back on paper currency.
DNB's proposal suggests eliminating the use of cash would cut down on black market sales and crimes such as money laundering.
“Today, there is approximately 50 billion kroner in circulation and [the country’s central bank] Norges Bank can only account for 40 percent of its use. That means that 60 percent of money usage is outside of any control. We believe that is due to under-the-table money and laundering,” Trond Bentestuen, a DNB executive, told Norwegian website VG, the Local reported.
“There are so many dangers and disadvantages associated with cash, we have concluded that it should be phased out,” he added.
The country has already moved in this direction. Bentestuen estimated that only about 6 percent of Norwegians use cash on a daily basis, with the numbers higher among elderly people.
Norway’s Ministry of Finance is opposed to the proposal, however, and other critics have raised concerns about privacy issues as well as how the change would affect tourists. Privacy advocates in Norway have expressed worries for years that, without cash, there would be no way for an individual to purchase something without being tracked.
In 2014, Finans Norge, a financial industry organization in Norway, said the country was on pace to be a cashless society by 2020, Ice News reported. While DNB said its proposal will take time to complete, executives suggested the country start phasing out cash by discontinuing the 1,000 kroner note so it could focus on updating its banking system.
“Eighty-five percent of our customers say that they never or only very rarely go to the bank. Therefore we think it is a mistake to maintain a very old structure with local branch offices. It is better to follow the customers and improve the offers where the customers are: digital,” Bentestuen said.
In the meantime, DNB and Norway’s second largest bank, Nordea, have already stopped using cash in their branch offices. And the movement toward a goal of no cash has been going on for a while. The Norwegian Hospitality Association pushed to eliminate consumers’ right to pay cash at all stores and restaurants in 2013, The Local reported.
Other countries including Denmark and Sweden have made similar pushes as their populations also rely largely on electronic money.
If allowed to continue, state wealth control will exist.
And thus, as we concluded previously, if you can’t withdraw your money as cash, you have two choices: You can deal with negative interest rates...or you can spend your money. Ultimately, that’s what our Keynesian central planners want. They are using negative interest rates and the War on Cash to force you to spend and “stimulate” the economy.
If you ask us, these radical and insane measures are a sign of desperation.
The War on Cash and negative interest rates are huge threats to your financial security. Central planners are playing with fire and inviting a currency catastrophe.
How Billionaires Are Investing In 2016: "The Only Winning Move Is Not To Play The Game"
www.zerohedge.com
Ever since 2009, when we first showed how broken the capital markets are first at the micro level, thanks to the pervasive spread of parasitic, frontrunning algos, and then at the macro, as a result of constant, artificial central bank intervention and levitation, we have advised readers that the best option is to simply avoid rigged, manipulated markets altogether. Now, 7 years later, the world's richest people agree.
Remember when we warned virtually every single day for the past 7 years that constant central bank and HFTs manipulation will lead to a market so broken nobody will have any faith in price discovery or asset valuation until everything collapses and is rebuilt from scratch? Well, we are delighted to announce that this is now conventional wisdom, and as a result every so-called "prominent investor" is now resistant to putting on fresh positions and expected asset prices to head downward, according to the WSJ.
It's not just that: according to WSJ reporting from the just concluded symposium of billionaires, prominent investors and other hypocrites in Davos, the consensus is that "the world’s central banks can’t save us anymore."
The next WSJ sentence is absolutely epic: "Their mood here was irritated, bordering on affronted, with what they say has been central-bank intervention that has gone on too long."
Oh yeah, they had no problem with central bank intervention for 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or even 6 consecutive years... but seven? Now that's just absurd!
The WSJ goes on to vindicate all so-called tinfoil fringe websites by admitting that "from this anecdotal sampling, at least, that has created growing distortions in nearly all asset prices—from stocks to bonds to real estate."
But... fundamentals?
Great job central bankers and other central planners: the one thing you just had to save at any cost, the market, pardon the "market", even if it meant crushing the middle class, is no longer credible - not even to the smartest people in the room.
Or much more: after all the S&P is only in the vicinity of 1900 instead of 666 thanks to 7 years of central bank intervention. Pull the rug, and you get a 70% collapse.
Srinivasan said the central banks in the U.S. and Europe have done all that is possible, bringing rates to historic lows, and in Europe weakening the Euro to help sustain exports. Markets need to “stop expecting miracles,” he said, “now it’s time for the fiscal side to do its job.”
Actually, all central banks have done is delay mean reversion by injection trillions in liquidity which not only did not end up in the economy where it was not requested due to a complete collapse in demand, but simply inflated asset prices to record levels. Now even the wealthiest admit that the day of reckoning is coming.
The sentiment was the same for Axel Weber, the chairman of UBS AG. He said in a panel at Davos that: “There may be no limit to what the ECB is willing to do but there is a very clear limit to what QE can and will achieve,” he said, referring to the European Central Bank. “The problem is that monetary policy has largely run its course.”
Which is funny considering the only reason for the market rebound of the past two days was promises and hopes of more stimulus. Monetary policy may have "run its course" but the same billionaires will be delighted to get a few extra final hits before it all comes crashing down.
He is, of course, right, and incidentally this "thought scenario" is precisely what will happen because as we have repeatedly said, not a single economy or fiat system in the history of the world has disintegrated from deflation: governments and their central bank owners will always find a way to reflate, even if it means dropping money out of helicopters, even if it means destroying a reserve currency. And, as Venezuela most recently found out the very hard way, in the end, only hard assets remain - assets such as gold, which have preserved their value across the centuries.
As for these "prominent investors" who were anything but and merely rode the central bank wave for over half a decade, the fun is over. For him, “we call it the new abnormal and we better get used to it.”
What a coincidence that even the world's richest are suddenly using terms first coined on this website all the way back in 2010, almost as if we were right from day one.
Now, anyone interested in a nice game of chess?
Ever since 2009, when we first showed how broken the capital markets are first at the micro level, thanks to the pervasive spread of parasitic, frontrunning algos, and then at the macro, as a result of constant, artificial central bank intervention and levitation, we have advised readers that the best option is to simply avoid rigged, manipulated markets altogether. Now, 7 years later, the world's richest people agree.
Remember when we warned virtually every single day for the past 7 years that constant central bank and HFTs manipulation will lead to a market so broken nobody will have any faith in price discovery or asset valuation until everything collapses and is rebuilt from scratch? Well, we are delighted to announce that this is now conventional wisdom, and as a result every so-called "prominent investor" is now resistant to putting on fresh positions and expected asset prices to head downward, according to the WSJ.
In short, they say, the only winning move is not to play the game.
It's not just that: according to WSJ reporting from the just concluded symposium of billionaires, prominent investors and other hypocrites in Davos, the consensus is that "the world’s central banks can’t save us anymore."
The next WSJ sentence is absolutely epic: "Their mood here was irritated, bordering on affronted, with what they say has been central-bank intervention that has gone on too long."
Oh yeah, they had no problem with central bank intervention for 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or even 6 consecutive years... but seven? Now that's just absurd!
The WSJ goes on to vindicate all so-called tinfoil fringe websites by admitting that "from this anecdotal sampling, at least, that has created growing distortions in nearly all asset prices—from stocks to bonds to real estate."
But... fundamentals?
Great job central bankers and other central planners: the one thing you just had to save at any cost, the market, pardon the "market", even if it meant crushing the middle class, is no longer credible - not even to the smartest people in the room.
"The trade now is to hold as much cash as possible,” said Nikhil Srinivasan, chief investment officer for Generali, a European insurer with $480 billion in assets. "Equity markets could go down 15% to 20%."
Or much more: after all the S&P is only in the vicinity of 1900 instead of 666 thanks to 7 years of central bank intervention. Pull the rug, and you get a 70% collapse.
Srinivasan said the central banks in the U.S. and Europe have done all that is possible, bringing rates to historic lows, and in Europe weakening the Euro to help sustain exports. Markets need to “stop expecting miracles,” he said, “now it’s time for the fiscal side to do its job.”
Actually, all central banks have done is delay mean reversion by injection trillions in liquidity which not only did not end up in the economy where it was not requested due to a complete collapse in demand, but simply inflated asset prices to record levels. Now even the wealthiest admit that the day of reckoning is coming.
The sentiment was the same for Axel Weber, the chairman of UBS AG. He said in a panel at Davos that: “There may be no limit to what the ECB is willing to do but there is a very clear limit to what QE can and will achieve,” he said, referring to the European Central Bank. “The problem is that monetary policy has largely run its course.”
Which is funny considering the only reason for the market rebound of the past two days was promises and hopes of more stimulus. Monetary policy may have "run its course" but the same billionaires will be delighted to get a few extra final hits before it all comes crashing down.
One person who has also been warning about this terminal outcome for years is Elliott Management chief Paul Singer who said that "if central banks double down on their policies of QE, ZIRP and NIRP, it could cause a loss of confidence in central bankers, paper money in general, or one or more currencies, and lead to a collapse in bonds and stock prices."Added one other CEO of a major global financial firm: “The sickness is not inflation, it’s the mispricing of assets.”
The realization that Western economies will be growing slowly—and there was little that the central banks may do to aid—put financial executives here in something of a stupor.
The Netherlands, for instance, is experiencing negative interest rates. "We have limited opportunities to lend on the other side” of customer deposits because of those negative yields, said Ralph Hamers, the chairman of Dutch bank ING NV. “The only thing we can do is extend credit we would normally not do, and that leads to an accident waiting to happen.”
For Mr. Hamers and others, a shift in sentiment seemed to be taking hold. Annual growth of the old order—3% to 4% for the U.S. and other Western economies, is far away. Absent structural changes led by governments, there was little reason to be cheered.
He is, of course, right, and incidentally this "thought scenario" is precisely what will happen because as we have repeatedly said, not a single economy or fiat system in the history of the world has disintegrated from deflation: governments and their central bank owners will always find a way to reflate, even if it means dropping money out of helicopters, even if it means destroying a reserve currency. And, as Venezuela most recently found out the very hard way, in the end, only hard assets remain - assets such as gold, which have preserved their value across the centuries.
As for these "prominent investors" who were anything but and merely rode the central bank wave for over half a decade, the fun is over. For him, “we call it the new abnormal and we better get used to it.”
What a coincidence that even the world's richest are suddenly using terms first coined on this website all the way back in 2010, almost as if we were right from day one.
Now, anyone interested in a nice game of chess?
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