World Famous Squares 2013 1oz Silver Proof Four-Coin Set

Silver Content (Troy oz)     1
Monetary Denomination (TVD)     1
Fineness (% purity)     99.9
Minimum Gross Weight (g)     31.135
Maximum Diameter (mm)     33.20 x 33.20
Maximum Thickness (mm)     4.00
Maximum Mintage     1,000
Designer     Aleysha Howarth

2013年1月18日收到 Perth Mint 寄來的一套四幣, 連信用卡用費 3226.75港幣 !
四枚銀幣有硬膠盒裝住放在個架內, 有薄膠膜封住 !
沒知個膠膜可否保銀幣不變色 ?
呢套幣發行量雖然是1,000 套, 不過單幣計可以去到 5,000枚 !

YouTube 計劃收費

YouTube Whatsapp 都收費, 睇來遲下無免費午餐啦 !

如果網上免費網誌都收費, 到時本網誌就會停寫 !

蘋果日報

影片分享網站YouTube將掀開收費新時代。據美國《華爾街日報》報道，YouTube正跟一些影片創作人商討今年內開始就部份內容收費的計劃，希望增加收入及吸引廣告影片製作人加入行列。

YouTube發言人前天（周二）表示：「我們一向相信，不同影片類型應採取不同收費模式。」消息指YouTube正考慮幾種收費方式，包括要用戶付費訂閱頻道，或付費換取優先收看影片，這樣頻道就可維持免費公開。

這模式曾於2007及08年由一個網上遊戲商試行，訂戶付50美元（390港元）年費或9.95美元（77.6港元）月費，可讓公眾早兩天收看影片，但計劃不成功，原因之一是影片被黑客盜用到其他影片分享網，後來遊戲商決定集中賣廣告而中止收費。

分析師預期，YouTube今年會有50億美元（390億港元）收入，當中一半是分給影片製作人的廣告收入。新收費模式會沿用採取YouTube與製作人分拆收入的做法。
美國《華爾街日報》

全球央行搶金 俄哈最勁

文匯報

國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）數據顯示，各國央行去年11月存金量繼續上升，共購入10.2億盎司，按年增加1.4%。12月初步數據顯示，俄羅斯與哈薩克斯坦購金量位居前列，土耳其黃金儲備增幅則最高，只有墨西哥與法國存金量下跌。

　分析指，各國追求外匯儲備多元化，令黃金受到青睞。IMF數據顯示，俄國12月黃金儲備增2.1%，至3,080萬盎司，全年增240萬盎司；哈國12月持金量增1.7%，至370萬盎司，全年增110萬盎司；土國黃金儲備增15%，至1,160萬盎司。 

瑞銀瑞信增存金收費 

　另外，瑞士兩大銀行瑞銀和瑞信決定提高黃金儲藏收費，普遍增加約兩成，以削減資產負債表規模。分析 指，目前客戶傾向使用「未分配賬戶」存金，意味銀行需為此增加資本儲備，故各行希望趕在《巴塞爾協議III》生效前，減少資本密集型活動。　

■《華爾街日 報》/英國《金融時報》

七成九人贊成徵「吉樓稅」

如果想實行, 政府須定意, 什麼是「吉樓」先 !

例如, 本人想置多層樓俾仔女不定時返來住下, 咁樣點計 ?

唔好到時本人同老公要一、三、五住呢間, 二、四、六住另一間 ?

又在外國的人, 會回港住幾個月又點計 ?

但好多時, 上有政策下有對策, 又是搞唔掂 !

文匯報

香港文匯報訊（記者 鄭治祖）香港樓價貴、置業難問題備受關注，香港研究協會最新調查發現，73%市民期望政府再出招遏抑樓價，79%贊成開徵樓宇空置稅以打擊囤積住宅行為。 協會促請政府積極研究進一步穩定樓市「加碼」措施，在有需要時果斷推出遏抑樓市需求措施，並積極研究優化現行土地政策，以配合社會可持續發展的需求。

　香港研究協會於1月24至28日電話訪問了1,073名市民，以了解市民對樓市現況的意見，又與 2010年3月下旬進行的同類調查作比較。結果顯示，71%受訪者認為現時樓市「有」出現泡沫，較上次調查跌2個百分點；表示「沒有」的則佔15%，較上 次升3個百分點，可見大部分市民依舊認為近期樓市已上升至一定風險的水平。 

　財政司司長曾俊華表明如果樓市再次熾熱亢奮，會毫不猶豫地推出其他措施。調查發現，73%受訪者認為，現時政府「應該」再出招遏抑樓價，而認為「不應該」的則佔16%。

　至於近期被廣泛討論的樓宇空置稅，79%受訪者對此表示「贊成」，當中認同「只向發展商擁有空置住 宅徵收」的佔39%，「向所有空置住宅徵收」的佔29%，而「只向個人擁有空置住宅徵收」的佔11%；而表示「不贊成」的則佔14%，反映大部分市民期望 透過新稅項以打擊囤積住宅行為。

Coming Short Squeeze In Gold To Shock The World

已愈來愈多人加入掃實金實銀行動, 所以將來會愈來愈難買到金銀幣 !

kingworldnews.com

Today the outspoken hedge fund manager out of Hong Kong, who recently lit the gold world on fire with his comments about a coming short squeeze in gold, told King World News that managed money around the world is already beginning to convert paper claims on gold into physical metal.  Kaye, who 23 years ago worked for Goldman Sachs in mergers and acquisitions and who is now the founder and principal shareholder of Pacific Group in Hong Kong, strongly believes that “only a small fraction of investors in the world need to do what we are doing to create an enormous short squeeze” in gold.

KWN will be releasing a series of written interviews today with Kaye which discuss the coming global systemic meltdown, and how it will impact investors and key markets around the world, including gold and silver.  Here is what Kaye had to say in part I of this exclusive interview:  “We know the claims on gold in the marketplace exceed, depending on various estimates, 100 to 150 times the amount of physical gold known to exist.  So when a credible country like Germany has sufficient concerns about whether they can get physical possession and safe storage of fully allocated gold, it’s our contention that any prudent investor should be concerned.”

William Kaye continues:

“When the music stops, what the leverage in the system should tell you is there aren’t going to be enough chairs.  So Germany, as a credible country, is saying, ‘We’re reserving our chair.’  Now this is exactly the type of catalyst that, as investors, we look for as owners of fully allocated gold ourselves.

We share many of Germany’s concerns....

“We want our gold in a safe location, fully allocated, (where) no one else can have a claim on it.  We can go and touch it, and we know it’s there.  That’s exactly the process that Germany has going on currently, and it’s something that should be getting the attention of every investor.”

Eric King:  “Bill, do you think that other fund managers in your position are going to move in this direction going forward, to get the physical gold in their possession so they are not left with pieces of paper (claims)? 

Kaye:  “It’s already happening.  It’s happening quietly for the most part at the moment.  I think the potential here is what is starting as a trickle could become a flood.”

Eric King:  “Bill, is that your vision of this?  When you talk about this becoming a flood, you see people panicking eventually that are running money, countries as well, and saying, ‘We’re done with the pieces of paper (claims) at the LBMA, at the Bank of England, at the Fed, we want our gold and we want it right now.’  Is that what you see happening?”

Kaye:  “I do see that happening eventually.  Most people who think they own gold don’t own physical.  They own some piece of paper.  People who have that piece of paper, and therefore the false security that they have the underlying wealth, if even a small fraction of them start doing what we are doing and what others are doing, it will create the biggest short squeeze in any financial instrument in the history of the world.

Credible countries such as Germany continue to convert their assets (and paper claims) into physical, fully allocated gold.  It can’t be hypothecated.  It has very unique serial numbers.  It’s for their use only.  (As I said), only a small fraction of investors in the world need to do what we are doing to create an enormous short squeeze (in gold).  That short squeeze, when fully under way, would likely take gold to at least $5,000 to $10,000 an ounce.”

美元又玩完

金 1681
銀 32.024
歐羅 1.3563
英鎊 1.57849
加幣 1.00342
澳元 1.04155
日元 91.022

今日及時買到2013熊貓金幣, 但中環永安大廈中銀得返1枚1/4盎司, 而長城只剩 1盎司的 ! 睇來想用中銀牌價買2013熊貓小金幣要考你運氣啦 !

貸評山下：各國央行變身大莊家

蘋果日報

今時今日，全球金融市場最大的莊家不是甚麼對沖基金，而是全球的中央銀行；這些莊家的一舉一動，卻又會是未來全球金融市場的最大風險。

為求走出迷宮，日本央行與日本政府共同發表聲明，聯手對抗通縮以及振興經濟至持續增長，宣佈通脹目標訂於2%，承諾在明年1月起，每月買入日圓的國債及票據 合共13萬億日圓。明顯地，今次日央行是被日本首相安倍晉三「霸王硬上弓」，筆者認為，政府如此過火的行為，無疑令日央行的獨立性受到干擾，讓它身陷兩難 局面。

權力越大　出錯傷害越深

如果你問筆者，全球各國央行應否擁有獨立性？傳統智慧，央行獨立性，毋庸置疑，不過，大家可先從兩方面去進行討論。

首 先，若央行完全擁有獨立性，即不受任何機構包括政府所監管，那它在制訂貨幣政策時，便可免受政治及人為因素影響，並能以公眾利益出發，讓物價保持穩定，但 央行的「問責性」便下降。權力越大，出錯時的傷害性就越深。諾貝爾獎經濟學家Milton Friedman便強力指控聯儲局是美國上世紀30年代「大蕭條」的元凶。如何防止「獨立」變成「無王管」，考驗全球政府的智慧。

反過來說，若央 行是非獨立的政府機構，即其貨幣政策會受到政府及政客所干預，而當政府不理會公眾利益，一意孤行要推行對經濟存在風險的貨幣政策時，此舉就會令央行失去公 信力。正如現時安倍晉三為求日本經濟高速增長，決定推行QE（量化寬鬆），谷高通脹率，此舉明顯就是干擾或挑戰日央行的獨立性。

然而，現時日本的 經濟底子薄弱，當QE一出，其物價預期上升，即貨幣預期下降，資金難免會大量流走，再加上人口老化結構問題，過於積極的貨幣政策只會令日本債務問題加深。 而安倍晉三把通脹目標訂於2%，只能說他是「玩命之舉」，要麼成功，要麼就會是推倒日本這個「龐氏騙局」的最後一根稻草。

屈從政治　會喪失公信力

事實上，現時不止日央行處於兩難局面。早前，德國央行行長魏德曼就警告，近年多國央行的獨立性正被削弱，令滙率變得政治化，不排除未來全球將陷入貨幣戰爭，觸發各國爭相將本國貨幣貶值的危機。

其 實歐洲央行（ECB）的獨立性也好不到哪裏，這也是ECB跟歐元成立前，與德國央行的最大分別，亦解釋了為甚麼這幾年來德國央行行長，久不久就出來批評一 下。歐央行背後充斥不同國家的政客，各懷鬼胎；現時歐央行的救市政策，就是無限量買歐債，這招不就是削弱貨幣政策，並有損獨立性之行為嗎？當然，從某個程 度來說，如果去年中歐央行沒有提出無限買債，歐元區可能已經離分裂不遠了。
獨立與否，央行都進入了一個新紀元。央行的資產負債表、銀根擴張已去到歷史罕見水平。央行如何善後，免得車毀人亡，才是金融市場未來最大的風險。


黃元山
大學教授、國際投行前董事總經理

沙膽虹手記： 初見劉夢熊

原來當年正達破產係咁一回事 !

蘋果日報

沙膽虹第一次見劉夢熊是在九八年初，當時他任職的正達證券公司面臨財務危機，債權人已準備入稟追數。大家相約在正達灣仔辦公室旁的世紀酒店咖啡室，劉夢熊 表示自己本來已找到中資公司當白武士，注資拯救正達，但銀行卻要入稟追數，大嘆可惜。後來揭發這家由有「太子」之稱的王正平兄弟打骰的全港第三大華資證券 公司，賬目原來爛到不堪，又怎可能有中資機構願意落叠？

該公司當時只有一千六百萬元資本，卻將客戶存放在孖展戶口的二十多億股票盡按給銀行，取得 五億多的貸款，轉了給控股公司及個別人士炒樓和其他投資。該公司過萬名客戶中，不少以為自己開了現金股票賬戶，真金白銀畀足錢買賣股票，卻原來是填了孖展 戶口的表格，手頭股票都被按了給銀行。九七金融風暴後，股市大跌，正達按給銀行的股票不斷貶值，銀行自然向正達追數，再加上銀行要收緊股票的按揭成數，正達財政才百上加斤。客戶出售股票要求取回現金，正達那有能力付錢給客戶，最後惟有倒閉，客戶損失慘重，王正平弟及弟婦被控造假賬罪成，被判入獄兩年，緩刑 三年。

沙膽虹

投資大陸舖位 信錯商場醫生 財經名人損手

蘋果日報

【本報訊】香港舖價超越國際，不少投資者將目標轉向內地，有「商場醫生」之稱的沈永年近年亦轉戰內地，為國內大財團擔當策劃人，大搞展銷會力銷港人北上買舖。但《蘋果》發現，他兩年前有份策劃、曾創下一日售出1.8億元（人民幣．下同）商舖記錄的「台山地王廣場」，現已十室九空儼如死城，約500名港人業主損失估計約2億元，連財經名人「陸叔」陳永陸和「曾Sir」曾志英等都損手。
記者：關震海　林熊　黃學潤

位於廣東的台山地王廣場約有1,700個商舖，超過500個舖位的業主是港人，其餘是內地投資者。眾業主收不到租金後，紛紛向當地發展商追討，但不得要 領。苦主先後到過台山市政府、廣東省政府及香港中聯辦示威，亦無結果。

四層樓商場僅五舖營業

記者日前到台山地王廣場實地查看，發現該商場共有四層樓，另有一層地庫；除了三樓電影院仍營業外，其餘全是「吉舖」；二樓全層數百個舖位全部關門大吉，僅地下十多間商舖有租戶，但只有四家照常開門。

去 年五月，發展商將地王廣場交給有「商場醫生」之稱的沈永年管理，希望他能夠將變成「死城」的商場救活，廣場內多個角落貼着「商場醫生沈永年來接管地王廣 場」的廣告。沈接手後，將二樓僅有的數間租戶集中到地下，租戶只需每月交二千多元管理費就可免租半年，延遲至下午二點才開門，以節省水電費。然而，六個月 過去，該商場仍是水盡鵝飛，但距離20分鐘路程的台山步行街則人山人海。

距商場200米外，萬方置業一名地產職員指，商場變死城主要原因是租金貴，沒有名店進駐，商舖又走低下價貨路線，也沒有食肆酒樓。職員說，現時約有數十個放盤，但無人問津。
當 年與沈永年一起到台山睇舖的「陸叔」陳永陸，承認購買台山地王廣場是一個失敗的投資，他認為失敗原因是商場管理不善及市場定位調查做不好。他當時以400 萬元購置了三間商舖，除了收取一萬多元租金後，就一無所獲。他曾向沈永年求助，但得到的答覆：「依家冇人買，等多幾年啦。」

投資80萬元買了一 個舖位的「曾Sir」曾志英，其商舖至今仍未取得房產證及國土證，他四處查詢才得悉是因發展商缺乏資本，所以有關當局暫不發出商舖產權證。曾Sir認為是 次投資失利，是因為撞上一個不好的發展商。

租金回贈保證貨不對辦

與財經精英一起損手的還有約500多名港人業主，其中一名損失139萬元的李先生指，當年買地王純粹靠名人效應，「沈永年、麥玲玲、蔡瀾都話買，我喺內地冇投資經驗，完全係跟呢班名人買舖。」
據 了解，當年發展商有十年的租金回贈保證，李先生的舖位以7.6厘息做56萬按揭，月供約1萬元。他當時以為每月有8千多元的租金回贈可封蝕本門，怎料 2012年的上半年發展商只肯給一半，後半年更是零回贈，現在發展商更失蹤，他被迫斬纜，由銀行接收其舖位。

陳永陸（獨立股評人）【蝕四百萬】

人稱「陸叔」的獨立股評人陳永陸直言，最初相信地王廣場落成後，人流會十分興旺，09年以10%折扣價、約400萬（人民幣．下同）買下三個舖位，怎料商 場入伙後人流減少，「兩個舖曾租出去，收過萬幾蚊租金後，之後就冇收過。」陸叔亦試過將舖位放售，但無人問津，曾經找沈永年幫手，「佢都話市道好差，好少 買賣。」陸叔承認這次投資失敗，希望幾年後環境好轉，將舖位賣出去。

風險高過回報 股票唔抵博

蘋果日報

基於美股每年11月到翌年4月慣常有好表現，我上月指出美股在總統選舉後應會有一波升浪，但由於多隻龍頭股均出現明顯調整，所以我不認為主要美股指數有能 力再攀上近期的高峯。對於美股好友們高呼股票不算貴，我不能百分百否定，可是這並非事實的全部。如果按照目前「水份」很多的企業盈利來推算，美股才稱得上 是便宜。

企業盈利水份多

我之前解釋過，財政赤字加上央行狂印銀紙，將會帶來通脹，最終會推高消費品、商品、物業以至股票價格。關於盈利含有「水份」這個問題，我的一位朋友另有一 番見解。他說，正常情況下，當許多打工仔飯碗不保時，企業的每股盈利理應下跌才對，原因是職位減少會削弱消費意欲，到最後會殃及企業生意收入。
現時政府透過「洗腳唔抹腳」的用錢方法去「補貼」企業營業額，配合企業減省人手節省了一筆支出，企業的毛利反而升到「不自然」的水平。
在失業率那麼高的日子，企業每股盈利卻彈升，過往鮮有發生這樣的事。誠言，政府動用公帑去增加公共開支，對股市的幫助較量化寬鬆政策（QE）有過之而無不及。
美國政府沒有條件長期增加公共開支來救市，我擔心盈利到時候會停滯不前，甚至是倒退兩至三成。與此同時，歐洲經濟在2013年難望有增長，甚至會呈現倒退，新興市場實質經濟增長，與已發展國家的經濟息息相關。
我可以頗肯定地推斷，新興經濟增長步伐將放慢，令企業僅錄得溫和增長甚至出現盈利倒退。
補充一點，在2009至2012年美股牛市期間領導群雄的蘋果公司，其股價從高峯下挫，但元兇並非財政懸崖或美國總統奧巴馬連任，而是市場嗅到蘋果盈利將未必能達到投資者目標。與去年9月高位相比，蘋果股價迄今已回吐了差不多三成。
我不是認定蘋果將無法再闖新高峯，但先決條件是該公司業績須明顯優於市場預期，或者聯儲局繼續推行極度寬鬆的貨幣政策。我相信聯儲局繼續奉行超寬鬆貨幣政策的機會，將會較蘋果獲得優異成績表的機會高，可是這亦不能保證蘋果股價會再次一飛衝天。
投 資者還要留意一點，就是目前美國經濟擴張周期已長達42個月，而在1900至1990年期間的擴張周期，平均月數為37個月；雖然對上三個經濟擴張周期平 均達到95個月，當中卻涉及人為因素：兩代儲局主席格林斯潘和伯南克先後推行寬鬆貨幣政策。

看淡美國科技股

伴隨着這些擴張周期而來的，很多時就是股市下沉，故縱使個別公司的股價在未來數月裏或可以輕微升破紀錄高位，之後恐怕也難逃一跌。
眼見股票因業績令人失望而備受狙擊，我認為投資股票的風險已經超過其潛在回報，我尤其看淡美國的科技股。
標準普爾500指數升越去年9月的1474點高位後，大多數股票卻乏力衝破去年9月期間錄得的高位。對於不少股民近期爭先恐後地追捧股票，我確實存有戒心，趁高出貨的想法依然未有動搖。


麥嘉華
末日博士

三央行「決堤」 炒（殸+火）英美樓價

文匯報

置業安居，是願景也是噩夢。全球打工仔大半生營營役役當樓奴，亦有人輕易錢搵錢。踏入2013年，歐美日央行推行量化寬鬆(QE)政策，全球樓市有望水漲船高。歐債問題曠日持久，相對上政治較穩定、監管制度健全和文化獨特的「歐洲邊緣人」英國，以及地產市道復甦的美國，順理成章吸引投資者進駐樓市，炒高當地樓價，當中不乏在港澳的中國內地熱錢。然而專家指出，當聯儲局退市，就是資產泡沫爆破之時。■香港文匯報記者 曾憲龍

　去年英國住宅物業價值升570億英鎊(約6,984億港元)，重返2009年水平；當中英格蘭升 1.2%，蘇格蘭及威爾斯分別跌0.3%及3.1%。但10年來，蘇格蘭及威爾斯住宅價值累升84%及57%，跑贏英格蘭的43%。相比樓價急升一大截的港澳，英國物業投資價值較高。

港炒家愛熱錢 英人憂成避難所

　金融海嘯系列作者楊衛隆指，內地熱錢一直集結港澳，推高樓價，要政府出手遏抑，香港徵收巨額買家印花稅(BSD)後，熱錢開始轉到英國。

　楊衛隆稱，不少港人歡迎熱錢推高樓價，但英人不願英國成為歐元區富人資金避難所，更不想承擔歐元區呆壞賬，用納稅人的錢為歐元區糊塗賬埋單。首相卡梅倫近日多次揚言脫歐，正是避免歐元區崩潰「火燒連環船」。

　歐債沒完沒了，間接令倫敦豪宅成搶手貨。楊衛隆稱，法國今年可能爆發經濟危機，英國作為國際金融中心，是非歐元區歐盟成員國，堪稱歐元區富豪避險天堂。若有國家脫歐，「核心歐元」會大升，打擊出口，引發衰退，避險情緒令英國樓市一枝獨秀；俄羅斯富豪眼看歐洲人搶購英國豪宅，當然不執輸，即使「窮到踎」的歐豬國還有不少有錢人，湧入英國的潛在資金不容小覷。

　楊衛隆表示，美國QE資金湧全球，推高股樓價格，低息最多持續4年，只要一日不退市，情況不會太壞；當聯儲局決定退市，利率上升，資產泡沫就會爆破，影響程度視乎資產錯誤升幅有多大。

　2008年美國爆發次按風暴，樓市崩潰，拖累全球經濟。5年後「財政懸崖」及國債上限風險未除，但經濟活動稍見起色，樓價有望谷底反彈。美國海外房地產投資協會(AFIRE)月初調查顯示，今年地產投資者最感興趣的5大城市中，美國獨佔4個，外資湧入有望帶動樓市復甦。當中紐約最受青睞，三藩市及華盛頓分列第3、4位，休斯敦首次躋身5強，倫敦排第2位。55%受訪者認為美國是全球最穩定投資地，遠勝 2009年的43%。

華客垂涎 學者：美樓市復甦是假象

　中原地產項目部(中國及海外物業)營業董事許大衛表示，公司業務集中洛杉磯及三藩市，港客投資額介乎數萬至十數萬美元，大多抱尋寶心態，看準收租吸引，打算長線持有；內地投資者則通常一筆過付款100萬至數百萬美元購入獨立屋，自住為主，優質校網地段更非常搶手。

　數據亦顯示，加拿大退休基金3年來向美國商業樓市投放近90億美元(約698億港元)，填補樓市泡沫爆破後本土資金撤出的空缺，成為美國風險較高的大規模建築項目關鍵推動力。不過，美國耶魯大學教授、標普/Case-Shiller綜合樓價指數創辦人之一席勒認為，美國樓市復甦只是假象，極低按揭利率及樓價回落表面看來是入市好時機，但按揭主要由政府承擔，加上聯儲局買債計劃，塑造出一個極不正常的市場，令樓市未來很不穩定。  

3 Incredibly Key Charts For Battered Gold & Silver Bulls

kingworldnews.com

Today Egon von Greyerz sent King World News exclusively 3 incredibly important charts for battered gold and silver bulls.  This is an extraordinary interview and sequence of charts that all KWN readers globally must see.  Here is what Greyerz, who is founder of Matterhorn Asset Management in Switzerland, had this to say in this exclusive interview:  “Eric, last week we talked about all of the storms on the horizon.  Now we see that currency war discussions have broken out again.  Abe, the Japanese Prime Minister, is doing everything he can to suppress the value of the yen, and therefore he’s going to have Japan print unlimited amounts of money.”

Egon von Greyerz continues:

“Of course the President of the Bundesbank, Weidmann, has now begun criticizing Japan about starting currency wars.  He also said its monetary policy was totally unacceptable.  Many others have joined in this criticism.  We have the UBS Chairman, who was the former President of the Bundesbank, and Mervyn King from the Bank of England also did the same thing.

They all say we can’t have a deliberate policy to destroy a nation’s economy through currency debasement.  But that’s exactly what every country is doing.  This is just posturing by politicians because the game is to destroy the currencies....

“Debt in most countries has been growing exponentially.  Last year in Europe almost every single country grew its debt.  If they don’t grow the debt the political leaders will be thrown out of office.  Rajoy, the Prime Minister of Spain, had a landslide victory a year ago.  Now with austerity his approval rating is down to 15%.  So we know austerity will not work.

As long as these countries continue to run deficits, it’s guaranteed the currencies will continue to decline in real terms, which is against gold.  In 1965, Charles De Gaulle gave a superb speech in which he said most countries accepted that the dollar was as good as gold.  He said that will lead to the US going massively into debt.

De Gaulle, stated that “A currency system must be based on an indisputable money base that doesn’t bear the mark of one country.”  He said that “There is only one standard that meets those criteria and that must be gold.”  That was back in 1965, Eric.

A few years later De Gaulle demanded the US pay all of their debts to France in gold.  Of course as we all know that forced Nixon to close the gold window in 1971.  That was the start of the monetary experiment and explosion in money printing in the world, and this is only going to accelerate in the next few years.

I’ve included the gold chart below which shows that gold is up almost 7-fold since 1999. During the last 13 years gold has reached overbought situations a few times.  We saw it in 2006, 2008, and again in 2011.  Every time gold has reached those overbought situations we’ve seen a consolidation.

Compared to the previous rises this has been a relatively mild consolidation.  This last consolidation has finished in my view.  All of the major moving averages have caught up nicely to the price of gold and it is now preparing for liftoff.

The balance sheets of all central banks are continuing to grow and I’ve included a chart of the Fed’s balance sheet (see chart below).  The Fed’s balance sheet has now gone over $3 trillion.  $3 trillion is an absolutely massive amount.  The total borrowings are now actually over $3.1 trillion.

So the Fed continues to print money to finance the deficits.  They are also there to finance and backstop the precarious nature of the banking system.  We’ve seen the balance sheet of the Fed consolidating in the last year, just like gold.  But now as you can see on the chart above that it’s breaking out again and I think we are ready for the next move higher in the Fed’s balance sheet.

What we are witnessing right now is a perfect Ponzi scheme with the central banks buying up the government debt.  But like all Ponzi schemes it will fail and it will fail badly.  They will be constantly printing up new money to finance the debt and as this accelerates we will see the hyperinflation I have been predicting for quite some time.”

Greyerz also added: “Not only are currencies racing to the bottom, but so are rates.  I’ve included another very interesting chart that shows bond yields for the US, Germany and Japan.  This is a 200 year chart and it shows that rates are now at an all-time low (see chart below).

This breaks every single economic law there is.  You can’t have unlimited credit expansion and record low rates.  This is totally unreal and unsustainable.  When borrowings are high, the rates must be high as well.  This the law of supply and demand.

But governments and central banks have temporarily suspended economic laws by artificially manipulating rates.  This will not last, that much is absolutely guaranteed.  Since governments can’t repay their debts in today’s money, bond prices will fall dramatically.

So yields will go higher and they will go a lot higher than what we see on the above chart, even at the peak where interest rates were in the mid teens.”

Greyerz had this to say regarding gold: “Looking at gold and silver we are seeing another small pullback as both of these metals prepare to launch.  So the manipulation short-term continues.  But the continued rise of both of these metals is inevitable.

Everyone who deals in the physical market sees strong demand whether it’s in coins or bars.  I have mentioned previously that the next target for gold will be $4,500 for gold and $150 for silver.  Eventually there will be many zeros in the price due to the hyperinflation we will see.

So investors are buying gold and silver to protect themselves against the destruction of paper money.  By now investors should know they must buy physical gold and silver and they must store it outside the banking system.”

金槍不倒 樓價不跌之謎

蘋果日報

發展商轉軚與特首施政報告有莫大關係，對於實施買家印花稅（BSD）後三個月態度軟化，乃因明知鬥不過政府，為免節外生枝，觸怒政府再施辣招，但這只是公 眾的演繹，老樓卻認為今天以本地客為主的地產市場，既然未能吸引內地大款，就來個順水推舟，大家好下台。
樓價不跌、金槍不倒，萬變不離其宗。息口低，供應遠水難救近火以及看升者多過看跌，還有下列三項的觀察，引證了不跌之謎。

真正用家主導市場

（1）基本樓價上升因素不變，一直以來，低息、低供應和熱錢太多，使人們預期樓價升幅向上，今次是政府出手打擊炒家，官府多次強調不是打擊樓價，既然打擊 炒家，只是把炒家活躍程度大大減低，並未影響到真正用家的入市意欲，買家在選擇多了後比較利好因素不變，難有大跌的期望，只是把升幅減慢，增加他們入市的 機會，過去三周入市者分別以用家主導便可見一斑，這批有能力兼有需要的買家，按實際需要入市，量力而為。既然有入市行動，當然是評估樓市中長期走勢升多於 跌後的判斷。

（2） 出貨者為小部份對後市有保留或持貨過多的投資者，先止賺離場；相同道理，看升者多過看跌，早前成交量不多難以拖低樓價，過去兩周出貨者縱然調價最多一成仍 有承接，以及業主選擇撻定重售，售價更高過撻定前的價位，這表明樓市承接力強勁，成交量持續每周錄得升幅，使其他有意出貨的業主收窄減價，樓價自然亦會原 地踏步，待好友入市。

（3）隨着內地通脹回升，預期將影響到香港通脹率，尤其是衣食行的漲幅刺激了樓價租金，市民為防資產貶值，買樓收租抗通脹仍然是最直接的方法，每月租金可抵銷供樓支出，還遠高於把現款存入銀行得不足一厘的利息，相對下收租客仍對買樓誘因未改變。
利好因素多於利淡因素，如以現時情況不變，樓價爆升可期。


劉兆昌
資深地產傳媒人

歐羅升, 日元跌

金 1658
銀 31.169
歐羅 1.3459
英鎊 1.5795
加幣 1.00523
澳元 1.042
日元 90.886

默克爾轟日本掀貨幣戰

蘋果日報

【本報綜合報道】日本央行要推無上限量寬措施，以圖拯救一蹶不振的出口及國內經濟，不過卻受各界人士「圍攻」。其中，德國總理默克爾（Angela Merkel）批評日本以貨幣政策提升經濟競爭力，指20國集團（G20）會關注滙率操控等問題。曾經舞弄滙市的大炒家索羅斯亦指出，日本等國採取寬鬆政 策與德國主張的緊縮政策不同，可能引起貨幣戰爭。圓滙昨繼續尋底，每美元對日圓曾穿91關。

默克爾出席達沃斯世界經濟論壇時表示，並非對日本現時情況完全放心，又認為央行並非用作處理壞政策及欠缺競爭力的問題。分析指出，歐元區債務危機稍為放鬆，默克爾的言論顯示，正處於衰退邊緣的德國，憂慮貨幣戰將破壞環球經濟。

德國財長朔伊布勒（Wolfgang Schaeuble）上周表示，全球均指摘歐元區拖累經濟，但日本及美國的寬鬆政策向金融體系注入過多資金，對環球經濟造成新威脅。德國央行行長魏德曼早前亦警告日本央行，不要將貨幣政策政治化。

索羅斯：日本或損德經濟

索羅斯則表示，美國聯儲局推行的量寬政策是正確的，但德國認為需要透過緊縮政策處理財赤，取向與其餘國家不同，可能引起貨幣戰爭。他表示，日本透過更進取 的量寬壓低圓滙，歐元已經會因為歐元區沒有採取量寬而被動地升值，令德國經濟衰退或增長放緩。
圓 滙雖曾於本周一開始「死貓彈」並連升三日，但周四公佈去年貿赤按年增加近兩倍、創6.93萬億日圓歷史新高後，隨即令圓滙再回落，反映當地出口受圓滙強勢 打擊。日圓昨更曾穿91水平，美元兌日圓高見91.2，升0.96%。每百日圓兌港元昨曾低見8.5034；歐元兌日圓則曾見121.75。
面對各界的批評，財務大臣麻生太郎繼續為日本央行的行動護航，指採取量寬措施是為了令日本脫離通縮，而非操控滙率。
日本副財務大臣西村康稔則表示，圓滙未跌至100水平仍毋須擔心。

英經濟回跌 恐陷第3次衰退

tw.money.yahoo.com

（中央社記者黃貞貞倫敦2013年1月25日專電）英國國家統計局今天公布2012年第4季國內生產毛額（GDP）報告，結果下跌0.3%，經濟學家警告，如果今年第1季經濟再無起色，恐陷入第3次衰退。

2012年第3季在倫敦奧運推助下，英國GDP成長0.9%，走出2次衰退，原本分析師預估第4季GDP下跌0.1%，結果跌幅達0.3%，2012全年經濟零成長。

統計局說，經濟發展道路崎嶇不平，速度也遲緩。製造業生產跌1.5%，服務業零成長，營建業成長0.3%。

專家指出，如果今年第1季再出現負成長，連續2個季度負成長，將使英國第3次陷入經濟衰退，一旦如此，將是自1955年統計局開始進行經濟統計以來，史上首次出現3次衰退。

如果出現3次衰退，可能影響目前英國保有的AAA債券評等。標準普爾公司（Standard & Poor's）最近將英國的評等列為「負面觀察」（negative watch），主要是擔心英國疲弱的經濟復甦力道及政府財政。

IHS環球透視公司（IHS Global Insight）經濟學家阿契爾（Howard Archer）指出，英國經濟情勢十分嚴峻，如果經濟要回復到2008年第1季的水準，必須等到2015年上半年。

財政大臣歐斯本（George Osborne）表示，今天公布的報告再次提醒大家英國面臨非常艱難的經濟情勢，2012年尤其險峻，不僅國內有多年累積的鉅額債務，英國主要出口市場歐元區的經濟也陷入衰退。

他說，面對艱難的環境，政府決心勇於面對，才能繼續創造就業機會。

部分經濟學家批評英國政府的撙節措施力道過大，速度也太快，應該調整，國際貨幣基金（IMF）專家也呼籲英國宜考慮放緩撙節措施，並將今年英國經濟成長率下修到1%，但歐斯本與首相卡麥隆都堅持，絕不停止撙節計劃。

歐債危機緩 銀行紛償歐央行款

tw.money.yahoo.com

（中央社法蘭克福2013年1月25日綜合外電報導）歐洲中央銀行（ECB）今天表示，歐元區銀行已開始紛紛提前償還向長期再融資操作（LTRO）機制借得的款項，而這種新的跡象顯示歐元區最終可能脫離自己的危機。

在歐洲爆發主權債務危機，導致銀行同業停止拆款後，歐洲央行1年前以兩批總額超過1兆歐元的長期再融資操作（LTRO）向金融市場大舉注資。

歐洲央行的LTRO機制提供銀行3年超低利率貸款，避免歐元區銀行面臨信貸緊縮。銀行可選擇在1年後還款。

歐洲央行今天發出聲明稿公布，約278家金融機構將在30日償還1372億歐元（1844億美元）。歐洲央行首批3年期貸款總額4890億歐元，銀行業可在接下來幾週繼續提早還款。

雖然在歐債危機顯現緩和跡象之際，這份數據可能讓外界得知銀行業的健全狀態，但經濟師卻警告不要作過度解讀。

部分分析師認為，償債速度與額度可視為金融市場狀態改善的跡象，因為這代表銀行受惠於融資狀態改善。

不過其他觀察家對未來問題提出警告。他們表示，若只有德國等主要核心國家償債，義大利與西班牙等邊緣國家沒有償債，義西等國就可能會被冠上「污名」。（譯者：中央社蕭倩芸）

索羅斯預期 利率即將上升 歐元將會轉強

tw.money.yahoo.com

億萬財富金融家索羅斯參與了在Davos舉行的世界經濟論壇，他警告，美國經濟正在復甦，Fed的量化寬鬆政策的確有所助益，但投資人必須注意，一旦經濟成長明顯確認，利率便可能上升。

「一旦經濟啟動，那麼利率就會大幅上升，」索羅斯於周四接受訪問時，告訴CNBC說。

索羅斯說，此一行動在2013年可能出現，也可能已經開始。一旦聯邦預算的不確定性獲得克服，投資人開始投資，「我認為這種情況就會發生，」他說。

曾於1992年押空英鎊獲利數十億美元而聲名大噪的索羅斯並說，由於其他國家，如日本，採取行動，讓其貨幣貶值，歐元將有升值空間。

索羅斯於9月曾抨擊德國，將緊縮措施強加於歐元區，並說該區最大經濟體亦可能邁向蕭條。

周四，索羅斯說，德國只會以最少的行動保護歐元，未來二年，歐元區仍將面臨緊繃情勢。他依舊認為，進一步緊縮措施的時機，完全不對，他說，緊縮的財政與貨幣政策將會讓歐元升值，而其他國家則追求較寬鬆的政策。

「過去幾年，匯率異常穩定，」他說。「現在，則更多的火花，更多的動盪，正在蘊釀。」

船闖島被截 兩岸首合作保釣 台日水炮戰 陸海監船聲援

蘋果日報

台灣民間保釣船「全家福」號昨再闖釣魚台宣示主權，台海巡署派四艦護航。接近釣魚台海域時遭日海上保安廳八艘巡邏艦阻攔，以水炮攻擊，台海巡艦也以水炮還 擊。雙方互射糾纏時，三艘中國海監船突然駛到，跟在台艦後面，作聲援助威之勢，但未有加入對日水戰。此為多年兩岸官方保釣所罕見。事件引起外界關注，更令 日方高度緊張。
全家福號昨日凌晨從新北深澳港前往釣魚台，擬去島上安放媽祖像並宣示主權，船上有保釣人士及漁工等七人。台海巡署派出四艦護航，分別為排水量1823噸的 「和星艦」、668噸的「連江艦」及兩艘100噸的快艇。上午9時40分，保釣船抵近釣魚台28浬時，遭日本海上保安廳八艘巡邏艦攔截，日艦以蛇行、造 浪、噴黑煙等，阻撓保釣船前進。

台艦後方突出現海監船

保釣船避開干擾全速駛前。上午10時32分，日艦向保釣船射水炮攻擊；台方海巡艦立即趨前保護，介入日艦與保釣船之間，以廣播、LED燈等方式，警告日艦 勿阻中方船舶航行；日艦也向台艦喊話警告，並向台艦射水炮，台艦以水炮還擊。雙方在海上大混戰。
10 時50分，台艦後方突然出現三艘中國海監船，分別是「海監23」、「海監46」和「海監137」。三船直駛現場，先跟在台方「和星艦」後約2.5浬。為免 引起日方「兩岸攜手保釣」疑慮，台「和星艦」一度以廣播及LED燈警示，要中方海監船離去，但中方未被理睬，仍跟隨其後，只是沒有加入對日水戰。

台、日艦船邊混戰邊靠近釣魚台，最近只有17浬，日方拚命阻攔台方接近所謂12浬的「領海範圍」。中國三艘海監船也一路跟進，最近時距離台灣「和星艦」只 有約500米左右。因日方全力圍堵阻攔，保釣船無法再前，繞島一圈後決定放棄登島，於11時30分在海巡艦護衞下返航，中國三艘海監船亦離去。

這是兩岸保釣多年來，官方船隻首度在釣魚台海域同場現身與日方對峙。內地學者指，大陸海監船雖未介入對日水戰，但對台聲援助威意味不言而喻。台官方四艦與日方八艘一、兩千噸的艦艇比較，絕非對手，但有中國三艘海監船出現，對日方無疑形成震懾，不敢太過份。
學者認為，台方喊話要中國海監船離去，只是做樣子，因為台日是戰略盟友關係，日方最忌諱兩岸聯手保釣，目前台方並不希望出現這種局面。
日本新聞網/《蘋果》記者

三方艦船比拼

日本
•共出動八艘巡邏艦，包括PL63、PL42、PL51等
•排水量1,000-2,000噸，配機關炮，部份艦配直升機


台灣
•和星艦：排水量1,823噸；配機關炮
•連江艦：排水量500噸；配機關炮
•10018號快艇：排水量100噸
•10050號快艇：排水量100噸


中國
•海監137：排水量3,000噸（原海軍保障船，去年退役移交海監）
•海監46：排水量1,100噸（配輕武器）
•海監23：排水量1,000噸（配輕武器）

美元反彈, 歐羅跌唔落

金 1671
銀 31.80
歐羅 1.337
英鎊 1.579
加幣 1.00289
澳元 1.0468
日元 89.97

Silver Bars Being Secured By HSBC – Buy $876 Million Worth From Poland

www.goldcore.com

Today’s AM fix was USD 1,692.25, EUR 1,268.84, and GBP 1,066.19 per ounce.
Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,692.50, EUR 1,268.17, and GBP 1,068.36 per ounce.
Silver is trading at $32.33/oz, €24.32/oz and £20.46/oz. Platinum is trading at $1,700.50/oz, palladium at $725.00/oz and rhodium at $1,200/oz.

Gold climbed $6.40 or 0.4% in New York yesterday and closed at $1,690.50/oz. Silver slipped to $31.79 in London, but it then climbed to a high of $32.34 in New York and finished with a gain of 1%.

Gold hovered near a 1 month high on Wednesday supported by loose monetary policies of central banks. There are renewed hopes regarding U.S. debt ceiling talks and the U.S. House of Representatives plans to pass a bill on the almost 4 month extension of the borrowing limit.

Silver has now rallied for 7 days due to the flood of inflows into silver backed ETF’s and investment demand for coins and bars internationally. Analysts polled by Reuters expect silver to rise in 2013.

Holdings of iShares Silver Trust, the world's largest silver ETF, stood at 10,689 tonnes on Jan. 22, up 604.9 tonnes, or nearly 6 percent, from the end of 2012.
By comparison, SPDR Gold Trust, the world's top gold ETF, saw an outflow of nearly 15 tonnes so far this year.

This has helped silver prices rally over 6% so far this year and 4.5% last week alone. The close above $32/oz yesterday was bullish technically and could lead to silver testing the next level of resistance which is at $34/oz.

The U.S. Mint has sold out of 2013 American Eagle silver coins and will resume sales the week of January 28 when the US Mint said inventory would be replenished.
Chinese silver turnover surged to 2,200 tonnes on Friday and analysts say Chinese investor’s interest in silver is continuing to rise as many are looking at silver as a cheaper alternative to gold.

Hence, trading volumes for the precious metal on the SGE soared in 2012.
Silver bullion imports by China remain robust too. Silver imports were 228 metric tons in December, according to data released by the customs agency.

There are also rumours that Apple is experiencing delays in producing the new iMac due to difficulty in sourcing industrial silver in volume in China. More silver than is typically used is utilised in the new 21.5" Apple iMacs.
  
HSBC Buying KGHM Silver Bars 

HSBC has quietly moved into acquiring large amounts of silver bullion.
The bank has secured another deal to buy silver bars from KGHM which brings their total purchases of silver from KGHM alone in the last 12 months to $876 million or PLN 3.65 billion.

KGHM is one of the largest producers of silver in the world and is the second-largest producer of refined silver in the world.

They produce silver bars registered under the brand KGHM HG that are attested to by “Good Delivery” certificates issued by the London Bullion Market Association and the Dubai Multi Commodities Centre.

Listed metals producer KGHM signed an estimated PLN 1.67 billion deal on 2013 sales of silver to HSBC, KGHM said in a market filing yesterday.
The deal puts the total value of deals between KGHM and HSBC in the last 12 months to PLN 3.65 billion or $876 million, the filing read.

The Management Board of KGHM announced that on 21 January 2013 a contract was entered into between KGHM and HSBC Bank USA N.A., London Branch for silver sales in 2013.

The estimated value of the contract is PLN 1,672,260,469.66. As a result of entering into this contract, the total estimated value of contracts entered into between KGHM and HSBC Bank USA N.A., London Branch over the last 12 months exceeded 10% of the equity of the Company and amounts to PLN 3,654,120,061.59.

The highest-value contract signed during this period is the above-mentioned contract. The criteria used for describing the contract as significant is that the total estimated value of the contracts exceeds 10% of the equity of KGHM.

KGHM is one of the largest companies in Poland and one of the largest mining & metallurgy companies in the world.

The main customers of Polish silver in recent years have been the United Kingdom, Germany and Belgium.  HSBC appears to be one of their main customers now.
Respected and erudite, James Steel, the chief commodity analyst at HSBC Securities (USA) Inc. continues to be bullish on silver and recently said how “silver tends to track gold, except it over performs in a bull market”  and how he was “moderately bullish on silver” in 2013.

HSBC did not comment on the deal and it only came to light as KGHM is a listed company and had to report the deal which was then picked up in Polish media.
The massive deal could simply be HSBC securing supply for the NYSE listed ETFS Physical Silver as they are the custodian.

Or it could be that senior people in HSBC are concerned about securing supply as they expect robust investment demand to continue and possibly increase resulting in higher prices.

本身住公屋 女租霸居屋一劏四掠錢

蘋果日報

【本報訊】小業主要小心，近年有租霸擅自將單位劏成板間房出租牟利。上水區有「女租霸」，自己住公屋，卻租了居屋翠麗花園一個兩房單位，擅自多間兩房，若 四房全部出租，女租霸每月可賺近一倍租金；她在區內合共租了最少三個住宅單位和一個舖位，當中三個因欠租遭業主入稟強制收樓。
記者：梁御和


涉事女租霸姓陳，年約40多歲，活躍於上水區。去年7月下旬，她以7,800元租了上水翠麗花園一個600多呎的居屋單位，向業主交付2.3萬元按金及上 期後，再花費估計約萬餘元，將單位的廳以白色薄木板「劏」成兩個房間，令原本的兩房兩廳，變成四個房間。

三房租出月袋11400元

之後，陳託朋友放租，在11月中將主人房（月租3,500元）、客房（月租4,000元）及其中一間板間房（月租3,900元）租出，合共月租 11,400元，尚有一房未租出。換言之，若四房全部租出，陳每月可收的租金，將接近原來她付給業主的租金7,800元的一倍。
由於陳一開始就拖欠租金，並換了門鎖，業主梁小姐決定收回單位，在11月下旬爆鎖入屋，赫然發現單位被劏。她找裝修師傅拆除僭建房間，但簇新的裝修經已遭破壞。
陳卻報警，指控業主擅闖民居及偷竊。警方發言人證實，去年12月1日曾接獲姓陳女子報案，初步列作求警調查，未有人被捕。

梁小姐指，陳「外表斯文，又話自己去過美國留學」，更預先寫好一份「退租書」交給她，指如有欠租，業主可以憑退租書收回單位。豈料在陳欠租時，梁小姐才發現所謂退租書根本無用。
若非遭撞破，三個房間的按金及上期，已足以讓租霸「回本」。主人房的租客桃婆婆已繳付10,500元按金及上期，並已遷入；其餘兩名租客則合共付了定金7,900元，尚未遷入。
律師梁永鏗表示，如未經業主同意，租客擅自劏房出租，可被收回單位，並面臨民事索償。
陳本身住公屋，居於上水清河邨；相信也有領取綜援，去年初她曾被社署追討涉嫌多領的約8,500元綜援金。其單位信箱塞滿信，包括房署追討欠租的信件。另有資料顯示，她曾被財務公司追討欠款。
此 外，她2008年成立了一間裝修公司；而所租的新樂街舖位，曾經營時裝，去年初遭業主入稟收樓。至於陳租的另外兩個唐樓單位，分別位於新康街及新成路，一 個於去年底被業主入稟收回，另一個則有四個劏房，她曾發過分租單。

聲稱財困交不起屋租

記者追訪陳時，陳否認是租霸、否認有劏房、否認有分租，但言論似有矛盾（詳見另稿）。她聲稱有財務困難，「我依家銀行剩番幾多錢你知唔知呀？……清河邨 （公屋）嘅租都未交得掂！」至於公司，她指是早年成立並蝕錢的。

婦墮買樓騙局 42萬誤購銀主盤

樓市一到高位, 就出呢些新聞啦, 所以買樓不能急 !

文匯報

香港文匯報訊　(記者 杜法祖) 一名中年女子，去年底在上水東閣圍村以超筍價買入一個村屋單位自住，早前付出42萬元訂金後，即大肆裝修並擇吉入伙，不料原來其所購村屋竟是銀主盤，且被 銀行職員揭發有人冒認業主賣樓騙去買家首期，警方已列作詐騙案，正通緝該單位一名前戶主助查，暫無人被捕。

正通緝該單位前戶主助查 

　案發在東閣圍某號一幢3層高簇新村屋，據附近村民表示，該幢村屋落成以來未見有人入住，側聞有買家買入後發覺無水無電撻訂，已數度易主，至早前有水有電後，再見有人前來睇樓，料不到物業已是銀主盤。 

　疑遭詐騙女事主姓凌(50歲)，據說於去年底經人介紹，私下與一名姓何男子洽購其位於上水東圍閣的村屋，疑有人因心急入市，早前付出42萬元「大訂」後，在等候安排律師辦理買賣手續期間獲給予門匙，乃匆匆安排裝修工人為新居大肆裝修，並準備擇吉入伙。 

　近日，銀行方面發覺有人擅闖銀主盤物業進行裝修工程，昨晨9時46分，派出40歲姓梁職員到場查證屬實，於是報警。警員到場透過裝修工人聯絡上姓凌「準業主」助查，揭發是一宗懷疑詐騙案。警方根據臨時買賣合約資料，發覺姓何賣家並非別人，正是有關物業其中一名前戶主。

First-Hand Account of Gold & Silver Mania in China- Black Friday Style Mobs Scrambling for Bullion

大陸咁快為實金實銀瘋癲啦 ?

幾時輪到香港 ?

www.silverdoctors.com

With the recent claims from an Apple contractor that a Chinese silver shortage is the culprit for the production delay in the new I-Macs, an SD reader who has recently moved to China has given SilverDoctors a MUST READ first-hand account of the retail gold and silver mania underway in mainland China. 

With the Chinese New Year less than a month away, Ichban describes Chinese demand for gold and silver in Beijing as a tidal wave, and states that the demand for gold and silver is more intense than Thanksgiving/ Black Friday mobs in the US, despite the nearly 60% premiums retail dealers are asking for silver bullion!!

Ichban gives readers a glimpse of what to expect when the mania stage of the gold and silver bull markets finally reaches the US, as he describes the scene at Chinese retail bullion stores: 
Despite these high premiums, I have never seen such frenzied buying in my life!  I am a young adult male and 40 year old Chinese women are shoving me out of the way because they are trying to buy some gold and silver!

Ichban’s full first-hand account of China’s gold and silver mania below:

Doc,
I have been in China for the past few months and I have been witnessing the silver and gold demand first hand at ground zero. Let me tell you. At first, I was quite stunned to see the small silver and gold shops that sell everything but the bullion rounds we are used to seeing back in the states like ASEs, Maples, Krugerrands, and even Chinese Pandas (these are only legally sold at the National Chinese Banks like Bank of China, ICBC, etc).

The reason I was stunned is that I did not witness the typical scene described back in Western websites about the massive PM demand in China when I first arrived in October. Of course there is a lot of retail demand in China for silver and gold but the bulk of this retail demand appears to comes around the Chinese new year (which is Feb 9 this year).  The typical scene at a silver/gold store did not impress me. This changed very quickly as the Chinese buying habits according to a Western mind (me) are not very predictable and appear to be lemming like or Giffen-good esque. In other words, if they see that something will increase their prestige or esteem and people are catching on, then all of a sudden like a tidal wave, everyone will start buying it, wearing it, or doing whatever “it” is. This is a common trait in South Korea, where 1 product or musician can become very popular out of no where. One has to keep in mind that in general, Asia, which is not based on Judeo-Christian norms, is an area all about perception, prestige, and not losing face.

I just wanted to tell you that the last couple weeks, these retail shops which are often found around big box stores like Carrefour or Wal-Mart in China, have been absolutely swamped with buyers. I was not impressed with the traffic a couple months ago but there is a lot of money flowing to gold and silver the last couple weeks here and it isn’t showing any signs of abating soon. I have never witnessed anything like it before, and this is comparing it to Thanksgiving shopping in the US, where people get stabbed over the newest Iphone that is released on Thanksgiving.

For a little background: The Chinese New Year is the biggest holiday celebration in China of the year and it is based of the Lunar calendar (but it is usually sometime in February or early March according to the Gregorian calendar). This is the only time of the year that every Chinese person has some time off to visit with family, similar to our Christmas but even bigger in my opinion because of the magnitude of people moving around in China and the amount of time off (usually 1 month). With that in mind, gift giving is a very important thing in China because of something called guanxi (pronounced gwan she) and mianzi (pronounced meon zuh).

The Chinese are the ultimate source when it comes to presentation and perception. Because of this, the children will buy the parents a gift of something that they can wear, and it is almost always in the form of Gold and/or Silver. Silver and Gold signify money and wealth to all Chinese and this is just a basic concept to them. Anyways, instead of buying your mother a vacuum cleaner for Christmas a typical Chinese son or daughter would prioritize spending 500-1500 yuan on gold/silver for their parents (focusing on the mother first). This is $80 to $240 in USD.But the buying doesn’t stop with the children. Usually the mother and father will go out and buy gold and silver on their own in addition to their son or daughter buying them gold and silver. Just today while I was at Carrefour, I saw multiple grandmas, fathers, and mothers wearing gold necklaces that were 20 karat  or above and weighed around 70-85 grams. One such necklace I saw was $5000. I took a good notice at what clothes the man was wearing. He had some old tennis shoes, and just a t-shirt with some basic jeans. I know judging a book by its cover is wrong but he did not appear to be ultra wealthy. You would not see this sort of buying back home in the states which is why this is absolutely stunning to any Westerner. I also saw numerous older women wearing traditional silk Chinese shirts with similar necklaces that looked to have cost around $2500, as I would look at their necklace and compare it to the one in the shop (as they are all pretty easy to look at and compare because they are sort of standardized here).

Next time I go, I will take photos for you and you can post them on SilverDoctors… Furthermore, I was shoved numerous times out of the way by 40 year old women who wanted to get a gander at the newest necklaces and bracelets….. I am not a big guy but I am a young adult male nonetheless and these are women that are shoving me out of the way because they are trying to buy some gold and silver. This just gives you the idea the sort of frenzy that is going on over here. I won’t make price predictions, but I do expect silver and gold to go higher from here over the next 3 weeks, with a small correction by the end of February.

Here is a breakdown on the prices:

The gold at most of these small silver gold stores were selling anywhere between 388-420 yuan per gram (or $62.47 to $67.63 per gram, using a 6.21 exchange rate). With a current gold spot of $1685, the per gram cost is $54.18. China’s retail precious metals scene is currently putting only a 15% to 25% premium above spot prices. This of course is higher than premiums in the west but relative to Chinese premiums, this is pretty cheap. All of the PM retail shops in China lower the premiums significantly leading up to the Chinese New Year (Feb 9) in order to attract more buyers. I’ve witnessed premiums well above 50% a couple months ago for gold.

The silver was anywhere between 8.8 yuan to 20 yuan per gram (depending on the significance of the artwork, and other factors). However, there were .999 50 gram art bars that were selling for 10 yuan per gram or 500 yuan per bar. These art bars have each of the 12 zodiac animals on them. So, one 50 gram art bar is $80.51 or $1.61 per gram…. whereas at the current spot price of $32 equals $1.02 per gram. So in other words, China has a street silver premium of 57% on a typical art bars…. If this 50 gram Chinese Zodiac art bar were to only weigh a troy ounce (31.1 gram) it would cost $50.07…. a much higher premium than the art bars you can buy at your local dealer, SD Bullion, retail shop, or on eBay.

Anyways, despite these high premiums, I have never seen such frenzied buying in my life before. I must take pictures and/or a video next time I go to the Carrefour in Beijing just to show everyone in the West what the mania stage will look like when it finally arrives in the states. In the meantime, I am going to take care of those bruises I received today from the 40+ year old women who shoved me out of their way. Cheers from Beijing.

金幣閃爆 投資者熱捧

報紙都開始介紹實貨啦, 睇來市場好快會熱爆 !

 蘋果日報

【本報綜合報道】全球五大投資貨幣之一的鷹揚金幣，今年1月銷量大升67%至12.7萬盎斯。美國鷹揚銀幣更因銷量太好，導致供不應求，美國鑄幣局需在本 月底前要暫時停售該款銀幣。此外，備受投資者追捧的澳洲鴻運金幣的批發和零售銷售按年分別躍升35%及40%。分析指，投資者追捧金幣反映市場對實體金有 需求，而且投資者非獨沽一味捧黃金，並瞄準現貨銀或其他貴金屬。 美國鑄幣局指，截至1月18日止，美國鷹揚金幣1月銷量12.7萬盎斯、共24.1萬枚；遠多過上月的7.6萬盎斯。美國鷹揚銀幣1月銷量601萬盎斯， 接近去年創下歷史高位611萬盎斯，也遠高過上月的164萬盎斯。

鷹揚銀幣缺貨需停售

由於市場對鷹揚銀幣需求過盛，美國鑄幣局出現貨源短缺，要暫停發售，冀本月28日或之前恢復發售鷹揚銀幣。
世 界五大著名投資貨幣之一的澳洲鴻運金幣，其市場需求亦有增無減。澳洲柏斯鑄幣廠的報告指，自2013年澳洲鴻運金幣於去年10月推出至今，銷售按年升 40%。報告指，澳洲鴻運金幣需求大升，除了北美和中國兩大客戶外，香港、新加坡和台灣對該金幣的需求同樣殷切。而澳洲鴻運金幣在環球金幣市佔率由前年的 7%倍增至14%。
此外，有分析指投資者熱捧金幣主要因為金價升幅越來越少。金價雖保持連續12年升浪，但目前現貨金價格較前年9月創下的歷史高 位每盎斯1900美元水平低12%。此外，去年現貨金全年累積升幅僅7.1%，創08年以來最少升幅。而按現貨金目前每盎斯1685美元水平計，一盎斯鷹 揚金幣最新報1745美元，對現貨金的溢價達3.5%，故令投資者認為買金幣更保值。

較現貨金溢價達3.5%

在金價升勢疲軟下，德銀分析報告認為，驅使投資者轉移至買現貨銀。而券商Lear Capital行政總裁Scott Carter則指，市場擔心美國債務上限和擔心美元回落，推動了市場對現貨金或現貨銀需求，而且投資者更不再只追捧黃金，投資貴金屬更講求多元化。巴克萊 表示，雖然今年銀供應仍充裕，並足以支持6441噸的市場需求，預測投資者對現貨銀需求可持續。

地產代理：買家要癲過業主先買到樓

記住呢個瘋狂畫面, 好多人又要交學費了 !

 蘋果日報

【本報訊】運輸及房屋局長張炳良表示，市民「不應該恐慌性買樓」，現實卻是「嘥氣」；梁振英（CY）的施政報告一出，累積的購買力即時爆發，二手樓成交量 勁升近五成，創近八個月新高，全城破頂價湧現，畸形樓市無藥醫。代理都話現在樓市是癲的，太理性反而難買樓。皆因業主叫價是瘋狂，「（買家）一定要癲過佢 先買到樓」。
記者：朱連峰　湯家明

【二手勁旺】
十大屋苑　成交升50

施政報告一出，二手樓價量即升。世紀21聯誠表示，藍田居屋康雅苑A座高層1室，實用面積640方呎（建築面積877方呎），剛以360萬元售出，實用呎 價5625元，創屋苑綠表價新高。鑽石山龍蟠苑D座高層1室實用面積353方呎（建築面積480方呎）一房戶，以345萬元成交，實用呎價9773元，創 屋苑一房新高。將軍澳新都城2期11座高層B室，實用面積363方呎，成交價425萬元，呎價高達11708元，創屋苑新高。
中原地產統計的十大屋苑，施政報告後首個周六及日的成交量即爆升近五成至46宗，成交量更創出八個月新高﹔其中鰂魚涌太古城及天水圍嘉湖山莊分別錄5宗及6宗，按周升67%及兩倍。美聯物業統計的十大屋苑亦有34宗成交，按周升近一成。
中原地產亞太區住宅部總裁陳永傑表示，新一年樓市氣氛轉佳，加上剛公佈的施政報告沒特別調控樓市措施，市場重拾信心。

【業主心雄】
反價封盤　賣貴一成

樓市瘋狂，業主不反價「不正常」。大圍文禮閣有單位儘管在短短兩周內三度反價，其間更封盤。單位最後反價一成癲賣，有代理以「直頭黐線」形容現時樓市的瘋 狂景象。

文禮閣三次反價兼封盤

該單位為1座低層H室，實用面積622方呎（建築面積736方呎），本月1日叫價都只是540萬元，10日已加至560萬元，隔兩日再加20萬元至580 萬元。施政報告公佈後，該業主更驚死平賣蝕底，翌日即封盤不賣，要重新估算叫價。之後亦不設底價，價高者得。至昨天，竟然有客畀到596萬元，有指業主這 口價都不想賣，但在代理積極游說下才肯此價售出。原業主05年6月僅以242萬元購入。
祥益地產分行經理蕭嘉偉亦稱，天水圍嘉湖山莊賞湖居2座高層A室，實用面積636方呎（建築面積824方呎），反價15萬元至365萬元售出。

【買家搶盤】
上車熱點　400萬絕迹

施政報告無新招打擊樓市，二手再轉火熱，並重現樓市熾熱時市民「盲搶樓」情況。代理表示，由於不少業主反價或封盤，盤源驟減下，買家「焗買無樓睇連租約 盤」，令該類連約戶成交比例逐步增加。

連約戶成交大增

美聯助理區域經理陳惠玲表示，馬鞍山新港城向來是年輕客上車熱門屋苑，本月截至18日，已有19宗買賣，高出上月全月才錄14宗成交36%。本月成交中， 連約戶至少5宗，佔總數26%；上月該類連約戶只佔21.4%。她預期，受上車熱潮影響，區內400萬元以下私樓料在農曆新年後絕迹。
中原分行經理馮子峰也指，施政報告措施溫和，買家急速起步，尤其上車盤，買家「冇樓睇」都照買。沙田中心為例，本月至少錄16宗成交，40%屬連約貨，單位全部有租約在身，買家無得親身實地睇樓。

【反價成風】
老實業主　被指儍人

有人大貪賺盡，但仍有「菩薩心腸」不求賺盡的業主。黃大仙鳴鳳街伯德大樓一個實用面積352方呎（建築面積451方呎）高層單位，業主竟將單位賣給出價最低的買家。
據 地產代理透露，該單位於上周六同時被三個客睇中，第一位買家於上午出價288萬元，並得到業主口頭應承，有趣的是，即使其後有人於傍晚出價295萬元，該 業主竟然不反口，以288萬元賣予第一位買家。其中一名代理笑言，「都唔知話佢（業主）儍定係聖人，我有個客畀多7萬佢賺，佢就話應承咗人，唔想失信於人 喎……」正當全城業主驚蝕底紛紛反價封盤，但估不到仍有人不求賺盡，是真是假，讀者自行判斷。
雖然這名老實業主不賺盡，但成交價已是物業新高，較去年8月對上一宗成交245萬元貴18%。此單位01年11月購入價亦僅80萬元，舊樓都勁賺逾二百萬元，足見樓市的瘋狂。

【網民洗版】
瘋狂樓市惹人討厭

老拎土：「業主到價就反，反完就封盤，搞到自己放賣嗰層都要跟住反，幾時先換到樓呀？」

嘔泡果奶：「頭先agent打嚟話個客好慘，搵咗幾個賣盤都反晒價，其中一個約咗噚日簽約又反埋，問我可唔可以confirm到，連樓都唔使睇。」

b02：「香港人嗰種驚執輸法，跌勢明確時只會人踩人。」

打不死火鳳凰：「好想樓市個泡沫快啲爆，咁就有平樓買。」

黑玉斷續膠：「有排升，以後窮人恩物要一千萬以上。」

資料來源︰網上討論區

麥基疑墮騙局 高息投資輸光60萬積蓄

自己財, 自己理, 唔好假手於人 !

蘋果日報

【本報訊】粵語長片中以飾演「飛仔」聞名的資深演員麥基，疑錯信世姪介紹投資計劃，貪圖每月5%回報，60萬現金積蓄付諸流水，昨天召開記者會交代詳情； 涉事投資公司負責人卻聞風而至，「直踩」記者會搶着解畫，聲稱信錯人，亦已積極籌錢向麥基還款，對他堅持報警感無奈。
記者：馬志剛
麥基昨日在民主黨立法會議員涂謹申陪同下，召開記者會詳述懷疑被騙經過。麥基說，早年一位生死之交過身後，協助將其遺產分配予該友人的三名子女，其中一人 名叫阿偉；2011年，阿偉向麥提及一位名叫陳英鳴的好友「好識搵錢」，存錢給他投資，可享每月5%高息。麥基去年7月不敵游說，到陳位於灣仔的「兆容創 富」聽其講解投資計劃，「係咪貪便宜？我承認，投資梗想搵番多少錢」。

涂謹申：投資須簽訂協議

麥基憶述，陳的「高息保本投資/借貸計劃」，每月可得5%利息，三個月期滿可以取回本金或繼續收息。麥開出50萬元支票，陳要求將抬頭留空，麥照辦；陳同 時將同等金額的三個月期票交給麥，由兆容創富簽發作為本金保證，但沒簽署任何合約或文件。8月份麥再加碼10萬，本金合共60萬。
此後麥基每月如常收到5%利息，合共約11萬，直至某日麥得知陳並非兆容創富員工，感到不妥，擬11月到期取回本金，至此才獲陳告知60萬已輸清。麥嘗試到銀行兌現期票不果，更查出當日開出的支票，抬頭寫上陳的英文名。麥基懷疑受騙，上月底報案。
在麥基召開記者會之時，兆容創富負責人莊先生卻與阿偉親到記者會向記者解畫。莊說，兆容創富並無聘用員工，只作自己投資之用，也幫陳英鳴與阿偉等幾個朋友投資，且陳已將60萬轉到兆容創富名下作投資，否認陳涉行騙。
他 更說誤信「期權大師」、蒙能前高層潘東凱，去年9月讓潘操盤，誰知半個月便使他損失慘重。莊日前也向警方報案，指有人涉作出虛假陳述，但拒進一步透露詳 情。阿偉則說，莊表示一直設法籌款還給麥基，又欲與麥商討如何善後，惜對方不理睬，堅持報案及向傳媒披露，對此感到無奈。
涂謹申表示，外國近年漸多向熟人埋手的投資陷阱，利用獨特關係影響受害人基本判斷，呼籲市民投資時必須簽訂投資協議，並細閱條款保障利益。

Something Substantial Has Just Changed In The Silver Market

銀價大升 ?

等睇戲吧 !

kingworldnews.com

On the heels of KWN receiving more reports that available retail silver products are disappearing from wholesaler and dealer inventories, acclaimed trader Dan Norcini told King World News that something substantial has also just changed in the paper silver market.  Here is what Norcini had to say:  “Most of the time shortages don’t mean there is not a lot of the commodity around, it just means there is not a lot of it available at that particular price.  In other words, silver is sitting out in the vaults of investors.  There are guys with 1,000 ounce bars, and quite frankly, they are not interested in selling that metal at prices down near $30.”

Dan Norcini continues:

“As a matter of fact, when we look at that weekly price chart now, Eric, 4 out of the last 5 weeks preceding this one the silver has dipped down to $30 or below $30, and it has encountered very substantial buying down at those levels.  The bears could not crack the market below that ($30 level).

What that means is if there is a demand for silver out there and it can’t be met by the available supply on the market, the price is going to have to go higher.  It’s going to have to get to a level where people where people who are holding these big bars are willing to relinquish it in size or part with their metal.”

Eric King:  “Dan, moving the price of silver from $30, to $32-$33 is not going to get rid of a shortage.  So they are going to have to move silver a lot higher, and that’s going to create that breakout you have been talking about in silver.”

Norcini: “That’s a good point, Eric.  Look at what’s happened in the platinum and palladium markets.  There was a legitimate shortage of platinum and palladium, particularly in palladium.  Palladium was a very strong price chart.  The price of that metal just surged higher, and the same thing now with platinum.  Platinum (recently) moved from $1,500 to $1,700.  The point here is these metals moved (significantly) higher because there was a genuine shortage out there.

As you said, if the price of silver is around $30, and you’ve got very strong demand down there, for the price to move $1 or $2, we’re not talking about enough of an incentive to satisfy that kind of demand.  And certainly not enough of an incentive to induce guys holding the metal in bar form to release it into the market.”  

Eric King:  “Dan, I think we are going to see a pretty big move in the price of silver.  If we do see that, what’s the breakout level?”

Norcini:  “Right around $31.50 this week was a big test.  When it went through $31.50, something changed in the (paper) silver market.  There is now a very real possibility, I would say a strong possibility, that silver is going to try to make a run up toward the $34 level.

If silver gets through $32.50, Eric, I think you could easily see silver put on (another) $2 very quickly and run up to $34.50.  If the supply shortage is real out there we are going to see it reflected in the price action, and that price action will happen sooner rather than later.  We will know if silver shoots up to $34.50 there is substantial truth to that (supply shortage).”

2013年熊貓銀幣已出現假幣

honsonyip.blogspot.hk

不過不是包銀爛銅爛鐵, 而是 999銀幣(正確是假冒銀幣, 因為不是人民銀行發行的)!

所以大家要小心貨源, 唔好亂買, 唔係只值純銀的價值 !

海關撿442萬元白銀磚

白銀有價, 不過要運去大陸一定要報關 !

蘋果日報

【本報訊】海關人員前日在深圳灣管制站截查一輛報稱未有載貨的入境私家車時，在車廂後排座椅地下，發現11個尼龍手提包，內藏33塊共重515公斤白銀 磚，總值442萬元。49歲男司機及44歲女乘客，涉嫌觸犯《進出口條例》輸入未列艙單貨物被捕，為海關最近一年破獲的最大宗陸路口岸走私白銀案件。海關 稱農曆新年臨近，會在各口岸加強執法，打擊走私活動。

內地官員急拋樓 穗滬甩賣近萬套

文匯報

香港文匯報訊（記者 劉坤領北京報道）內地反腐勢頭近來強勁，不斷有官員落馬，這其中包括多名利用職務之便或受賄所得購買多處房產的「房叔」、「房嬸」被查辦，這令擁有多處房產的內地官員心存焦慮，不少官員開始向市場拋售多餘住房。有消息稱，中紀委日前向中央通報「反腐新動向」，去年11月以來，45個大中城市出現拋售豪宅、別墅等新情況，一些一線城市的拋售房產市價動輒千萬。其中，廣州和上海拋售豪華住宅情況最厲害，兩地合共近萬套房。

　據內地《經濟觀察報》報道稱，中紀委的通報稱，去年11月中旬以來，內地45個大中城市出現一股拋售豪華住宅、別墅等新動向，12月以來，拋售豪華住宅、別墅等情況繼續擴大，更改物業業主情況數以百倍上升，狀況空前，且部分業主為國家公職人員和國有企業高層。報道指這一說法得到接近中紀委人士證實。

60%業主匿名 須現金交易

　據中紀委的通報顯示，內地11個城市拋售情況最嚴重，分別為南京、上海、杭州、天津、瀋陽、廈門、福州、濟南、廣州、深圳、成都。官員拋售豪華住宅最厲害的是廣州和上海，分別為4,880套和4,755套，福州和濟南以1,240套和1,210套居末位。而別墅則以杭州412棟居首，天津112棟墊底。

　在拋售過程中，出現若干極不正常情況：拋售住宅業主中60%是匿名、假名或以公司掛名；業主物業大多數空置或出租給親屬、朋友，沒有租住合約；業主物業出售都要求現金交易，不經金融機構；業主物業出手都委托律師全權處理，業主在交易過程中不露面。

非法資金外流破萬億美元

　一名中介機構負責人表示，從去年11月開始，各地官員急於拋售房產的現象增多，這些房產往往是豪宅，一些一線城市的房產市價動輒千萬。中介手中的房源僅僅是一部分，出於各種原因，一些房源還會委托給國有機構或者有熟人認識的機構，甚至委托專業代理人來全盤操作，自己自始至終都不會出面。

　通報還列出北京、天津、江蘇、山東、上海、浙江、廣東、福建、湖北9個省、直轄市黨政、國家機關、部門高中級公職人員及家屬提取外幣的情況。其中最高為廣東17.92億元，最低為3.7億元。

　文章稱，通報還顯示，據不完全統計，2010年內地非法資金外流是4,120億美元，2011年達到6,000億美元，2012年估計已突破10,000億美元。2013年規模或將擴大。

住房信息聯網引官員恐慌

　住建部牽頭推進的個人住房信息系統聯網擴大，被認為給各地官員造成了一定的恐慌情緒，致使各地拋售房產的現象持續出現。通過個人住房信息系統，可以查詢到公民名下擁有的住房數量、地址、面積等信息。目前該系統已實現內地40個城市聯網。報道稱，近期河南、廣州等地官員擁有多處房產被媒體曝光，也加重了這種擔憂。

　據去年底住建部工作會議透露，獲國務院同意，住建部即將下發《關於進一步加強城市個人住房信息系統建設管理的通知》。2013年，住建部或將逐步擴大個人住房信息聯網的覆蓋範圍，並最終將聯網覆蓋約500個內地大中城市。

　北京市紀檢監察學會人士表示，此次住建系統全國聯網後，將進一步推動官員財產公示的步伐。中央黨校教授王貴秀表示，應做到真正的公示，以震懾那些腐敗的官員。

Greyerz - We Are Now Seeing Massive Shortages Of Silver

kingworldnews.com

Today Egon von Greyerz told King World News he is now seeing massive shortages of silver.  Greyerz went on to warn about a frightening series of global storms which are set to collide, which will create an enormous hurricane in 2013.  He also spoke about gold and included a tremendous chart that all KWN readers will want to see.

Here is what Greyerz, who is founder of Matterhorn Asset Management in Switzerland, had this to say in this remarkable, exclusive interview:  “Eric, I see storm clouds gathering everywhere.  We have currency storms, economic, political, and geopolitical storms.  But short-term we may see some optimism in the economy as global stock markets make their final top.”

Egon von Greyerz continues:

“But that top in global stock markets is the final top before a major long-term collapse.  Thereafter, I see these storm clouds developing into serious problems for the world.  Every country is running a deficit and they all keep borrowing and printing incredible amounts of money.

Central bank balance sheets have exploded to extraordinarily dangerous levels in recent years....

“Governments continue to apply the only solution they know which is to print money in order to prevent their economies from completely collapsing.  But money printing will not save any of these desperate countries.

I’ve included a chart for this interview(below), and this shows the growth in GDP over five years, compared to the balance sheet of the major central banks.  As you can see there is virtually zero growth in GDP, but there is massive growth in the balance sheets of these central banks.

That growth in central bank balance sheets is of course money printing.  So this graph clearly shows that all of this unbridled money printing has had no effect whatsoever.  It will not have any effect in the future either, in terms of helping GDP.  More and more money will continue to be printed and borrowed, but the economies of the developed will continue to be in shambles going forward.

I mentioned the political storm.  Politicians around the world can’t seem to agree on virtually anything except money printing.  US and European politicians are simply worried about the pressures in their own countries.  The next countries to have problems in Europe will be France, and that will be followed by the UK and other European nations.

When it comes to geopolitical storms, we have seen problems in the Middle-East and North African countries.  These conflicts are becoming more and more escalated.  This could become extremely serious for the entire world.  So we are now reaching a point in 2013, Eric, where all of these storms will be colliding and coming together to form a hurricane.  The combination of these factors will be very detrimental for the world economy. 

We are also seeing an increase in global hunger, as well as dwindling food supplies.  It’s not only in the developing world that people are starving.  In the United States now, 46 million people can’t get sufficient food.  That’s a staggering 30% increase from 2011 to 2012.  The same thing is happening in southern Europe.  Also, in the UK, many families can no longer afford the food for their children.  This is just the beginning, Eric.  We have a major social disaster in the making here.”

Greyerz had this to say regarding gold: “These storm factors I’ve described will lead to the precious metals exploding over the next couple of years.  The falling currencies, the deficits, the political and geopolitical problems will all fuel gold’s rise. 

Up to this point the paper market has managed to hold the gold price down, but that time is now ending.  The fundamental and technical picture is now in a perfect position for gold to surge.  The real gold market is the physical gold market, and this is the only market that will count in the long-run.  Not only will countries want to have possession of their physical gold, but investors will as well.  Germany is just one example of this.

If you look at Switzerland, where about 70% of the world’s gold is refined, we are seeing incredibly strong demand.  The refiners are seeing it, the Swiss banks are seeing it, and we are seeing it from our customers also.  We are seeing major investors now buying physical gold, and in increasing amounts.  We are also seeing gold moving out of the banking system and into companies like ours that vault gold outside of the banking system.

Interestingly, we have just seen a break-in in a German bank.  The burglars dug a 45-meter long tunnel and emptied all of the safe deposit boxes.  Of course the contents of these boxes are not insured, and banks take no responsibility for the contents in private boxes.  This is yet another example of why gold must be stored outside of the banking system in safe vaults, and of course it must be insured.

The point I’m making, Eric, is we are seeing major increases in demand from people either buying or transferring gold to us.  And this is happening before any major increase in the price of gold.  Investors are sensing the dangers here and they are concerned.  I expect to see a massive rush into gold as the price begins rising.”

Greyerz also warned of severe shortages in silver: “We are now seeing major shortages of silver.  It’s much, much harder to get hold of silver than it is to get gold.  As soon as people get silver inventory to sell, it’s gone straightaway. 

I agree with John Embry who talked about silver going up hundreds of dollars.  Silver will absolutely explode in price.  Silver does have a much greater potential than gold, there’s no question about that.  As an investment silver will be spectacular. 

But the bottom line is we are having real problems getting silver because of these massive shortages.  We are now seeing very lengthy delays in getting physical silver.  You can still find gold, but silver is simply not around, and we expect the situation to get much worse.  We are now to the point where we are going to begin to see a massive breakout in the price of silver.”

供應趨降 金價勢衝高

蘋果日報

金價2012年上升7.1%，保持連升12年的紀錄，今年避險需求有可能下降，但抗通脹及投資需求依然強勁，金價大有機會保持上升。
2012年首九個月全球黃金產量錄得1%的跌幅，而有生產黃金的公司亦預料現時黃金產量已到達頂峯，業界認為由於生產成本不斷上漲，以現時金價的上升速度，遠不及成本上漲的速度，所以已沒有擴張產量的空間，反而會有下降的趨勢。
另外，近年礦業不斷出現罷工事件，除影響正常運作令產量下降外，資方為滿足勞方的加薪要求，亦加重生產成本，生產商陸續將部份礦場關閉，而市場亦預料情況將會持續。
中 國第四季國內生產總值增長7.9%，優於市場預期的7.8%，國內生產總值由第三季7.4%（三年新低）止跌回升，令市場進一步確認中國的經濟已回復上升 動力，除有助加強投資者的信心外，亦有助刺激國內的資金需求，可進一步鞏固黃金的升勢。

闖阻力位1700美元

日本中央銀行亦大有機會於下星期的議息會議中進一步擴大量化寬鬆的規模，有可能加劇通脹升溫的憂慮，有助刺激買金抗通脹的需求。
美元轉弱亦有助加速金價的升勢，美國議會的角力情況有可能會阻礙解決問題的進度及拖慢經濟復蘇的速度，若然美國的復蘇進度放慢，將會減低今年內結束量化寬鬆的機會，令美元進一步轉弱。
於技術層面方面，金價正形成雙底形態，底部支持位於1620美元，而現正測試初部阻力頸線位1700美元，綜合各項利好因素，相信金價有能力衝破頸線阻力上望第一目標1750美元及第二目標1800美元。

周燕珊
敦沛金融集團

消費者權利

近來見到網上有多人說, 去某幣店買銀幣, 要先俾錢後俾貨, 但銀幣有花有白點都唔會換, 只說 bullion coin 就係咁啦 !

先說本人經驗 :

Kitco 是隔住玻璃做買賣, 而佢地會把貨放在你面前先, 會把幣一個個轉俾你睇, 滿意就可以俾錢, 佢就俾貨你, 就好似在銀行買幣咁 !

LPM 我上去時, 佢是先俾幣我, 我咁易望下, 包在透明膠筒的幣無一個個取出來睇, 只睇面和底就收貨俾錢 !

新人可能會俾某人嚇到, 因為佢公司設計是封閉式, 如果佢唔開門你就走唔到的 !
不過你有權利唔收唔滿意的貨品, 何況小小收藏者, 咁辛苦先可以買到個一枚銀幣, 本來開開心心, 點知一盤冷水當頭淋 ! 好多朋友都說唔會再上去啦, 所以呢樣變 bad 口碑 ! 希望某人可以改善下 !

為避免有人誤會, 本人指的某大公司是以前運作好好, 點知近來可能忙得太累或遇到好多煩客, 所以轉咗經營方式 !

樓市又癲 上車客加快入市

蘋果日報

【本 報訊】施政報告令無樓族失望，樓市再亢奮，業主反價，買家趁樓價再「發癲」前，迅速入市。青衣昨一日內連錄至少三宗成交，美景花園兩房戶剛SSD「刑滿」 免打稅，業主即以318萬元沽出，兩年速袋逾百萬元。一名80後恐樓價再升，施政報告公佈後深宵時分買入天水圍嘉湖山莊。
記者：湯家明　朱連峰

祥益地產分行經理蕭嘉偉表示，施政報告無辣招，嘉湖山莊有上車客前晚8時許開始睇樓，至昨日凌晨2時許終拍板，以316萬元購入樂湖居10座高層H室一個 實用面積549方呎（建築面積714方呎）單位。該上車客原本上周六已睇中同座樓上一個同面積單位，可惜被人截糊，前後睇過15個盤才入市。

樓市瘋狂，凶宅同層戶竟以市價成交。消息稱，沙田中心嘉寧大廈高層A室，實用面積390方呎（建築面積509方呎），成交價390萬元，實用呎價高達1萬元。有指同層一單位有人失足墮樓身亡。

第一城本月成交料達百宗

施政報告未能即時解決住宅供應緊張困局，期望政府「打救」的希望落空，買家加快腳步入市。美聯高級營業經理林振聲表示，施政報告着眼長遠供應，同時又鼓勵 中產置業，部份用家觀望過後，已加快買樓決定。施政報告公佈當日，將軍澳中心11座中層B室，建築581方呎，實用438方呎，上車客以約458.8萬元 承接，建築呎價7897元，實用呎價10475元。
儘管市場缺盤，買家入市步伐急起動下，搶盤情況趨嚴重。美聯營業經理溫浩華表示，沙田第一城本月首17日，成交彈升至66宗，上車客趕緊入市。按目前走勢，屋苑本月大有機會直逼100宗成交，再現旺勢。

中 原分行經理招錦昌指，沙田第一城39座低層C室，建築410方呎，實用304方呎，投資者預計大部份業主將進一步封盤反價，昨寧追價6萬元，落實以316 萬元連租約買入單位，因屬投資物業，須付半數樓價即158萬元，建築呎價7707元。

美景花園SSD「刑滿」賺百萬

青衣區昨更單日錄至少三宗買賣。利嘉閣市務經理陳志傑表示，美景花園11座高層B室，建築532方呎，實用424方呎，單位剛於本月SSD「刑滿」，業主 見單位鬆綁，毋須付任何額外印花稅，即以318萬元沽出，建築呎價5977元，創同類兩房新高價。原業主2011年1月以201.8萬元買入，當時政府已 實施首輪SSD，豈料期內樓價有升無跌，是次沽出，兩年賺116.2萬元，升58%。

利 嘉閣市務經理陳志傑表示，青衣藍澄灣1座高層F室易主，實用面積487方呎，建築面積約683方呎，業主放盤6小時閃賣，以430萬元售出，實用面積呎價 折合8,830元，建築面積呎價折合6296元。另世紀21奇豐李嘉文指，青衣曉峰灣畔3座低層B室，建築面積862方呎，實用面積653方呎，553萬 元成交，建築面積呎價6415元和8469元，買家為外國回流客，須繳82.95萬元買家印花稅。

法國官員促歐元貶值 恐爆全球貨幣戰

文匯報

歐元持續高企，兩名法國官員日前警告，歐元強勁拖累該國工業復甦。輿論擔心要求歐元貶值的呼聲高漲，一旦成事恐觸發全球貨幣戰。歐元兌美元昨升至1.3356美元。

　安倍晉三上台後大灑金錢又狂印銀紙，自去年7月歐元兌日圓已累升兩成。摩根士丹利分析員雷德克表 示，日圓貶值有利日本出口，歐元區尤其德國首當其衝。他指，歐洲銀行為符合更嚴格資本規定，紛紛縮減外國資產，將資金調回歐洲，預測歐元今年初升勢持續， 明年則可能跌至1.08美元。 

　巴克萊分析指，歐元自去年第3季累升6%，若升勢持續，陷入衰退的歐元區經濟今年會收縮 0.4%。外界認為，歐元匯價偏高，不利歐洲財困國；大摩早前計算出「合適」各國的歐元匯率，分別是德國1.53美元，荷蘭1.23美元，意大利1.19 美元，希臘1.06美元。 　　

■《每日電訊報》

今晚金銀大波動

先落後升突, 殺曬唔少好倉 !

金 1688  最高 1690 最低 1666

銀 31.75

日元 89.49

澳元 1.0534

加元 0.9851

美國不可信 德收回黃金

文匯報

德國央行昨宣布正式收回部分存放在美國及法國的黃金儲備，有分析認為，德國此舉反映西方各國央行之間可能存在 信任危機；美國債務上限逼近威脅美元貶值，也促使德國寧願以黃金「保本」。但有意見指出，德國當局長久以來對冷戰時期存放海外的黃金不聞不問、缺乏監管， 惹來猛烈批評，央行為平息眾怒，遂決定運回黃金進行審計。

　德國央行將在2020年前，從法國巴黎運回全數374噸寄存黃金，另會從美國紐約運回300噸黃金，即德國屆時將自行保管一半黃金。餘下的海外黃金儲備將繼續由美國及英國保管。

罕見行動 或方便審計

　美國債務上限問題仍未解決，假如真的「爆煲」，美元將成廢紙，有人擔心德國此舉反映對美國前景缺乏信心。資產管理公司Cumberland Advisors投資總監科托克則指，德國央行可能只想審計海外黃金，但因行動罕見，才會引來各種猜測。

分析︰新金本位時代將臨

　不少分析師認為，隨著中國及俄羅斯等儲備大國紛紛提高儲備多元化，以免過度仰賴美元及歐元，全球正邁向新金本位時代，中國政府早前也計劃增加黃金入口。著名黃金交易商辛克萊指出，德國此舉與法國在1970年代召回海外黃金同出一轍，其時刺激金價勁升。

　現時德國擁有3,991噸黃金，約值1,770億美元(約1.37萬億港元)，是繼美國之後的第2 大「黃金國」，但大部分黃金均在冷戰時期運至海外儲存；紐約聯邦儲備銀行的德國黃金儲量約為該國總量的45%，法國央行及英倫銀行分別持有11%及 13%。

■路透社/綜合外電消息/《每日電訊報》/《華爾街日報》/英國《金融時報》

Top UBS Analyst Predicts Carnage For The US Dollar & Equities

kingworldnews.com

On the heels of Germany looking to repatriate their gold, today King World News spoke with top UBS analyst Peter Lee about his rather frightening forecasts for the US dollar and equities.  Interestingly, his call for the dollar to plunge comes right after Germany expressed that it wants its gold out of the Fed and back inside German vaults.  If Lee is right in his outlook, this will have massive global ramifications.  Lee also provided KWN with some incredible charts to back up his rather ominous predictions for both the dollar and equities.

Here is what top UBS analyst Peter Lee had to say, along with powerful charts:  “We are nearing a couple of inflection points coming up in the markets.  There is a distinct possibility that all of this converges in the upcoming two-year window between 2013 and 2014.  This will be greatly impacting equities, bonds, and currency markets.

We are about to enter this convergence period, and we suspect in the second half of this year and into 2014 we will see a great deal of major movements in these financial markets.  The charts below go back to the Great Depression when we had an 85% drop in the S&P.

What is very interesting about these particular charts is the debate between the bulls and the bears as to where the market gets ‘cheap.’  So the question is, at what level will the market have to fall in order to create a buying opportunity?

The bears are claiming the market has to go down to the green line, which is the 1932 trendline (this would represent a catastrophic 72% decline).  We believe the market doesn’t have to go that low.  Currently the 1932 trend line is at 414 on the S&P.  Two years from now that number will be higher, somewhere between 450 and 500 on the S&P because it is a rising trendline.

We believe the right call is, we are going to do a ‘mean reversion’ towards the red line.  The red line represents the trendline back to 1942.  The reason we believe this is the correct call is because you can see a series of successful tests of that red trendline at various points covering the 85-year charts.

The most recent test was the March 2009 low at 666 on the S&P.  At that time the trendline was up into the low 600s, at 620, 630.  So we were within striking distance during that panic.  This 1942 trendline should be somewhere in the 850 area or above by 2014 (this would represent a horrendous drop of roughly 42% on the S&P).

Eric King:  “Either way we are in for one hell of a rough ride for equities.”

Lee: “We’re not done yet.  Everyone thinks that we’re nearing the end of the bear market, or structural sideways trading market.  We suspect we probably have another 5 to 8 years of this.  No one wants to hear this call because investors have already been frustrated by the last 13 years.

We have run a number of internal studies dating back to 1800, and the track record has been 100% accurate.  Every single time we have overextended market to the upside, we see a ‘mean reversion’ back to normal levels.  Again, this is 100% accurate going back to the 1800s.”

Lee also issued this ominous warning regarding a 20-year head and shoulders pattern which has developed on the US dollar: “Head and shoulders patterns are significant.  The tremendous amount of time, in terms of developing this head and shoulders pattern on the US dollar, means the drop will be quite significant.

When you look at the roughly 25-year chart on the dollar below, you can see the head forming in 2001.  The left shoulder formed in the early and late 1990s.  In the last five years we have seen the right shoulder form.  Again, because of the duration of this top, it suggests to us that any collapse below the neckline in the low 70s would indicate a very serious drop on the US dollar.

Eric King:  “It looks like you are targeting 50 on the dollar index (which would equal a nearly 40% plunge).”

Lee:  “That would represent extreme conditions as to the completion of this head and shoulders top on the dollar.  This drop in the dollar would have massive ramifications for the bond market and commodities prices.”

King World News note:  For readers around the world, this type of plunge in the US dollar will light the gold and silver markets on fire.  The belief that the dollar was headed into oblivion in the 1970s helped launch gold into a mania which culminated in gold rising 25-fold.  Silver was up 38-fold during that time frame as well.

A similar loss of confidence in the dollar would surely create a launching pad for stage III of the next mania in gold and silver.  The corresponding decline in equities Lee forecasts could also move the Dow/Gold ratio back to 1:1.

影子銀行風險升溫

蘋果日報

【本報訊】隨着市場上越來越多複雜的衍生產品推出，而影子銀行所帶來的風險亦日益加劇，有監管機構官員表示，需要全球通力合作，密切監察金融市場系統性風險，以防金融危機重臨。
所謂影子銀行，是有別於傳統銀行，主要包括投資銀行、對沖基金、債券保險公司、結構性投資工具等非銀行金融機構，通常從事放款，也接受抵押，通過槓桿操作持有大量證券、債券和複雜金融工具。
香港證監會主席唐家成昨出席亞洲金融論壇時指出，在金融危機過後，金融監管無論在結構、範圍及過程都沒有太大轉變，令金融監管面對的挑戰越來越大；現時各 國仍維持自我監管的形勢，惟當市場越趨全球化，傳統銀行業務的重要性不斷下降，取而代之是各類型複雜的金融產品，為監管帶來更大衝擊。
他 指出，現時並無任何單一機構能夠監管來自整個金融體系的系統性風險，惟市場上卻出現越來越多在監管範圍以外的影子銀行活動。他認為，各國政府需要加強合 作，以強化金融系統，惟相信在實施執行上仍會面對不同挑戰及壓力。

陳德霖：解危須削赤

出席同一場合的迪拜金融服務局主席賽義卜．艾格納表示，英美等地相繼出現佔領華爾街運動，反映市場對銀行體系失去信心，惟監管機構進一步收緊對銀行監管只 會適得其反，令更多原屬於銀行體系的業務轉移到影子銀行身上。他認為，現時影子銀行活動已成為各地監管當局的頭號威脅，惟監管者在進行規範時要小心制定政 策，以免弄巧反拙。
另外，金管局總裁陳德霖亦表示，全球不同的國家、機構及個人在過去幾十年負債不斷攀升，令金融體系潛藏危機。他說，要避免問題爆發，各國就要從削減債務、縮減開支及加稅三方面着手。
他指出，目前《巴塞爾資本協定三》已經限制銀行可用信貸額度，可達到減債成效；而各國實行量化寬鬆的「放水」政策，亦可引導資金流入實體經濟，降低負債佔國民生產總值的比重。

勁差的匯錢服務

早前介紹大家匯錢用x隆服務, 因為佢地平過其他銀行, 150蚊, 而佢信用卡客戶可以俾130蚊, 但原來愈平服務就變差 ! 

上次匯錢俾 G記, 聽漏本人說會俾對方銀行的用費, 好彩 G記 wave 咗本人要俾的匯費, 但呢次無咁好彩啦 ! 

話說, 本人上星期走去匯錢, 搵到一張 2010年的匯單, 以為照炒一定唔會錯的啦, 點知上次都填漏 sort code, 而呢次俾收錢銀行彈返轉頭 ! 

本人問職員, 是否銀行唔知要填 sort code ? 答:知 

為何填漏野都可以寄出去 ? 答:是收錢銀行突然唔收 ! 

本人後來搵到一張 2009年匯去同個銀行的匯單, 是本人親手填的, 而上面有 sort code. 

本人還記起, 當時拿咗張紙仔去匯錢, 但說無 sort code 唔可以匯, 所以要走多次帶 sort code 上去 ! 

為何 2010年個張會無咗 sort code ? 

以前匯錢都會問, 是否要俾對方銀行的費用, 因為扣除後, 收款人收到的錢會少咗 ! 

依家同客講多兩句都多餘啦 ! 

依家本人貪平變貴, 成個匯費是 : 2x130蚊, 再加對方銀行的 3x20英鎊 ! 

本來唔想用網上銀行, 但睇來都要轉去 Sonia 早排介紹的中銀網上銀行, 匯錢只須 100蚊 !

大新手機碌卡吸小商戶

蘋果日報

大新銀行（2356）早前宣佈，推出商戶專用的手機流動收款服務，可以智能手機代替沉甸甸的碌卡機，替小商戶節省空間之餘，亦可開拓流動收費。目前該行正透過合作夥伴Visa為有關服務爭取國際認證，料2月將正式接受申請，最快3月可推出。
所 謂流動收款服務，即是在智能手機上插上讀卡裝置，再透過手機程式，便可進行信用卡收費。大新銀行零售銀行處信用卡業務主管莊麗蓮表示，開放預先登記後收到 不少查詢，當中主要是小商戶，「細舖好似時裝店佔多，甚至有診所。」她指由於診所空間較少，難以容納傳統的碌卡機，「姑娘多數放喺腳底，要用先拎出嚟，好 唔方便。」

正爭取國際認證

除了「阻碇」，她指出，傳統碌卡機收費亦較高，影響他們提供收卡服務的意願。「小商戶怕影響營運，寧願唔收信用卡。」而新推出的手機讀卡裝置，費用是傳統 碌卡機的十分之一，「只係幾百蚊」，相信會有更多小商戶樂意使用。而服務推出初期，為了鼓勵商戶採用，銀行收費將會「十分實惠，接近傳統的收卡服務」。

對商戶及顧客而言，最關注的仍是安全問題。目前該行仍在透過Visa取得國際信用卡收款的認證，料2月便可完成所有程序。莊麗蓮稱，手機碌卡與使用傳統碌卡機無異，「讀取信用卡資料後，會直接連接中央資料庫，信用卡資料唔會喺手機留底。」
安 全性得到肯定後，她預計有更多商戶願意採用流動收費，例如外送服務。「有商戶覺得店內收錢先安全，外送又有機會唔見錢或者單據。」利用手機進行信用卡收 費，則不會發生上述問題。她說，目前已跟部份流動收費行業，例如保險及自動道路繳費服務商討論，待服務正式推出後作為試點公司，試用有關服務。


Visa北亞區商戶業務總經理辛瑋達表示，過去已於不少巿場推出流動收款服務，當中以韓國使用率最高。「因為韓國人喜愛光顧食肆外賣，服務可讓顧客在任何 地點及時間都能以信用卡付款。」他相信，流動收款可為本港帶來全新的消費模式，「以人壽保險為例，從業員與客戶確認保單後，可即場透過手機為客戶以信用卡 收款，不用再到銀行入款或郵寄支票。」
流動收款服務目前共適用於iPhone4及4S，由於裝置插頭只適用於以上機種。大新指目前正申請國際認證，以手機上的耳筒插口作為裝置插口，若成功便可適用於所有手機。
記者：關穎欣

金銀陷爭持 待消息突破

文匯報

英皇金融集團(香港)總裁 黃美斯 

　倫敦黃金上周延續著自去年12月中旬以來之反覆行情，於周四曾最高觸及1,678水平，因跡象顯 示，歐洲央行短期內不會減息，提振黃金買盤。此外，中國出口數據令人鼓舞，令工業商品和股市全線上漲。歐洲央行總裁德拉吉在議息會後表示，歐元區經濟在 2013年仍然疲弱，他預期在2013年稍後經濟僅逐漸復甦。歐元兌美元上升逾1%，穀物和原油價格走強，進一步提振黃金的升勢。 

　然而，周五金價又一度退回周四的漲幅，探低至1,653水平。中國12月消費者物價指數年率攀升至7個月高位25%，使中國推出更多刺激舉措的希望降溫。此外，1,780關口未能進一步作出突破，亦引發平倉盤壓力，但尾盤亦見金價逐步削減跌幅，重返1,660關口上方。

　預料整體金價走勢仍處於待變爭持的局面，向下仍見低位買盤支撐，但向上則缺乏進一步利好因素刺激。然而，隨著中國農曆新年前的黃金實盤需求增加，以及圍繞美國債務上限危機的不確定性，則令金價最終仍有重返升軌之傾向。 

若突破1679有望持續探高 

　在技術走勢而言，金價上周止步於1,679水平，為自去年11月末延伸至今之下降趨向線，後市需突 破此區後才可望持續探高，下一目標訂於年初曾觸近的1,695水平，同時亦視為雙底形態之頸線；連同1,700美元關口亦為關鍵阻力區，再而衝破，應見黃 金又會展開新一浪強勁升勢。另一方面，下方支撐則會先回看1,649水平，下一個重點關注將為100周平均線位置，自2008年金融海嘯以來，金價一直保 持在此技術指標上方，目前100周平均線處於1,639水平。 

　此外，月線圖則見25個月平均線在1,625水平，正正為今年低位觸及之位置，當然亦為後市所矚 目。而由去年5月份低位1,527水平起始之上升趨向線，延伸至目前亦建立一個重要支撐於1,623水平。由於目前價位與中短期平均線交集於1,665水 平附近之區間，當前將視為一個爭持局勢，直至金價有著明顯脫離此區，才會衍生較明確之走向。故短期策略上建議作區間上落買賣。

　上周銀價未可回破25周平均線阻力，目前處於31.65美元；短線較近阻力預估在30.90及 31.30，關鍵則在25周平均線31.65美元，需回破此區才可確認銀價擺脫疲勢，進一步則會看至32.50美元。另一方面，下方支持則預估在 29.80及29.20美元，若然跌破今年低位，銀價亦告脫離自去年12月中旬以來之爭持區間，有機會將伸展一輪弱勢走向，下個關鍵將為28.10美元。

美國控制實金實銀買賣 ?

美國有個省想出法例控制實金實銀買賣 !

其實加拿大有間網上實銀公司, 一早已須交私人資料和身份証明文件先可以買貨, 所以睇來會是將來指定條例 !

www.ilga.gov

97TH GENERAL ASSEMBLY 
State of Illinois 
2011 and 2012 SB3341 

Introduced 2/7/2012, by Sen. Kirk W. Dillard

SYNOPSIS AS INTRODUCED:

Creates the Precious Metal Purchasing Act. Provides that a person who is in the business of purchasing precious metal shall obtain a proof of ownership, create a record of the sale, and verify the identity of the seller. Provides that a person who is in the business of purchasing precious metal shall not pay for the precious metal in cash and shall record the method of payment. Requires the purchaser to keep a record of the sale for one year or, if the purchase amount is over $500, for 5 years. Provides that a person who violates the Act is guilty of a petty offense and subject to a fine not exceeding $500. Provides that the Attorney General may inspect records, investigate an alleged violation, and take action to collect civil penalties.

A BILL FOR 

1. AN ACT concerning business. 
2. Be it enacted by the People of the State of Illinois, 
3. represented in the General Assembly: 
4. Section 1. Short title. This Act may be cited as the 
5. Precious Metal Purchasing Act. 
6. Section 5. Definitions. As used in this Act: 
7. "Precious metal" means any item containing, in whole or in 
8. part, gold or silver or any alloy of gold or silver. 
9. "Proof of ownership" includes a bill of sale, an affidavit 
10. of ownership, or other credible evidence showing that the 
11. person possessing the precious metal is the lawful owner. 
12. Section 10. Requirements applicable to the sale of precious 13. metal. 
14. (a) A person who is in the business of purchasing precious 
15. metal, before purchasing an item containing precious metal from 
16. the same person exceeding $250 in value regardless of form or 
17. quantity shall: 
18. (1) obtain from that person: 19. (A) proof of ownership for the precious metal; and 20. (B) a record that contains: 
21. (i) the name, address, and telephone number of 
22. the person or the person's authorized 

1. representative; 
2. (ii) a description of the item containing the 3.precious metal, including the number of items to be 4. sold; and 5. (iii) the date of the transaction; and 
6. (2) verify the identity of the individual selling the 
7. precious metal or representing the seller from a driver's 
8. license or other government-issued identification card 
9. that includes the individual's photograph and record the 
10. verification. 
11. (b) A person who is in the business of purchasing precious 12. metal shall: 
13. (1) not pay for the purchase of precious metal with 
14. cash; and 
15. (2) for each transaction in which the person purchases 
16. one or more item of precious metal, record the method of 
17. payment used to purchase the precious metal. 
18. Section 15. A person shall retain a record 
19. obtained or made under this Act for one year after the date the 
20. precious metal is purchased or, if the purchase amount is over 
21. $500, for 5 years after the date the precious metal is 
22. purchased. 
23. Section 20. Penalty; enforcement. 
24. (a) A person who violates this Act shall be guilty of a 

1. petty offense and shall be fined an amount not exceeding $500 2. for each violation. 
3. (b) The Attorney General may: 
4. (1) inspect a record retained by a person under this 
5. Act; and 
6. (2) investigate an alleged violation of this Act.

Chinese To Increase Gold & Silver Storage A Staggering 180%

kingworldnews.com

Today acclaimed money manager Stephen Leeb told King World News the West is becoming even more desperate as the Chinese are going to increase storage a staggering 180% this year for gold, silver and other metals.  Leeb continues to  believe that when the Chinese eventually have gold underlying their currency the game is over.  Here is what Leeb had to say:  “I’m focused on this battle between the West and the East right now, and the Basel III situation.  The Basel III ratios that discuss liquidity ratios the BIS want the banks to maintain so they can survive a bank run are utterly baffling.  The puzzling thing was what they said banks could hold in the event of a run on the banks or a liquidity squeeze.”

Stephen Leeb continues:

“The last time we had a run on the banks was in 2008 when liquidity became a major issue.  In 2008, companies like GE were really having trouble turning over their commercial paper, so this was impacting everybody.  The first of these Basel III requirements say that you can hold equities or BBB- bonds.  Even with a haircut of 50%, this is ludicrous.  Who is going to take a BBB- bond as satisfaction for liquidity in a true liquidity crunch?

What was left out was gold.  Gold hold up well during the entire crisis.  It looked like it had a normal correction during that period.  It didn’t look like GE, which crashed and burned....

“Incredibly, the Basel III accord also allow banks to hold mortgage-backed securities as a liquidity cushion.

Gold held its own in 2008, better than virtually anything else in the world.  So of course gold should have been included as an option amongst those junk assets.  So why don’t they include gold?  Imagine if they had mentioned gold as a liquidity cushion in the event of a major catastrophe.  Gold would probably be trading at $2,200 or $2,300.

What would that say about the value of the dollar as a currency?  It would mean the asset which would be the ultimate hedge in a liquidity crunch really is gold.  But for them to say it would basically cause gold to shoot up, and that would devalue all of the global fiat currencies across the board.

Now, ironically, to cause gold to up that much and that quickly could hurt the Chinese because they are nowhere near buying the amounts of gold they ultimately want to possess.  So the Chinese are just sitting there and saying, ‘Thank you,’ to the West because they are buying the hell out of gold and they really don’t want to pay $2,400 for gold when they can pay $1,600 or $1,700 for it.

Gold trading in Shanghai is also picking up, and they will probably have an ETF in gold in the next couple of weeks.  Where are they going to get the gold to put into the ETF?  They are doing everything they can to get as much gold as they can without totally disrupting the market.

The reality is, and this upsets the hell out of me, but they are getting a tremendous assist from none other than our BIS.  I mean what would any sensible person rather have in a liquidity run?  Would you rather have a BBB- bond, mortgage-backed securities, or gold?  Obviously it’s gold.

Why didn’t the BIS say it?  I’ll tell you why, it’s because they are scared to death.  What you are seeing on the part of the West is ever-increasing desperation.  Now, is it a coincidence that Warren Buffett, right after these ridiculous Basel III regulations came out on liquidity, said, ‘He guarantees us that US banks are in great shape?’

How great a shape are the banks in when fiat currencies eventually collapse and gold, silver and other commodities go to the moon and the economy stops functioning?  They’re not.  So everything we are seeing right now is desperation on the part of the West.  The West is losing their head in terms of strategic moves because of this increasing desperation.

All of this is playing right into what the Chinese would like the West to do.  They are giving the Chinese all the time they need to get their yuan backed by gold.  There was a news release last night out of China stating, ‘Gold is going to become an ever greater part of our reserves.  We are going to try to do it in a measured way.’

What do you think, that the Chinese are going to hold BBB- bonds and MBS as a liquidity cushion?  It’s preposterous.  Either the people heading the West have cumulatively lost their minds, or they are just completely desperate.

The message for investors is you better own gold.  You better own some of those junior gold mines.  You better own silver.  Yes, the Chinese are accumulating silver for their energy needs.  Right now the Chinese have 50,000 square meters of space to store metals.  The Chinese are going to add another 90,000 square meters (a 180% increase) this year.

This is a country that is literally going to spend trillions of dollars to build out, urbanize, modernize, and put together an energy grid that is second to none.  They know they will need a stable currency to do that.  The only way to accomplish this is to own a great deal of gold to back their currency.

What the BIS and Basel III people just did was say to them, ‘Take your time China.’  Well, it’s almost game over.  That’s what you are seeing play out right now.  Gold probably has a downside of $1,600 here, and the upside is the moon.  That’s just he way this is going to end and nothing can stop it now.”

月入4萬買不起樓

文匯報

香港文匯報訊（記者 卓建安）香港富豪受惠樓價升，身家大躍進，但一眾受薪階層，過去10年來工資僅升9%，同期樓價升了1.16倍。中信證券國際執行董事、企業及高資產值客 戶銷售及業務發展主管林一鳴(見圖)昨日慨嘆，以目前的樓價及工資水平，即使月入4萬的家庭，也買不起樓。

貧富兩極化情況趨嚴重 

　林一鳴昨日出席午餐會時表示，目前港人的貧富兩極化情況趨嚴重，富者由於財富增長勁，會繼續買樓， 令樓價跌不下來。他說，過去十多年整體香港人的平均收入並沒有大幅上升，由2001年至2011年，本港個人每月收入的中位數只由11,000元升至 12,000元，升幅僅9%；同期本港家庭每月收入中位數也僅由18,710元上升至20,500元，升幅為10%；但在1999/2000年納稅年度至 2010/2011年納稅年度，最高收入的兩組納稅人，分別為最高收入的前10,000名和第10,001名至50,000名，其年收入則分別由 377.4萬元和129.9萬元升至885.9萬元和219.7萬元，其升幅分別達135%和69%。 

　林一鳴續稱，本港高收入人士收入上升的幅度偏高，是樓市的主要買家，足以支撐樓價上升；至於在首50萬個最高收入家庭之外，即使每月收入達到購買居屋的要求，即收入約4萬元或以下，其收入的升幅也追不上樓價的升幅，買樓就更困難了。

應增公屋居屋助中低層 

　他認為，由於目前本港樓市問題是中低收入人士買不起樓，因此政府的政策重點應該是提供較低價的住宅 供應，即增加公屋和居屋供應，而私人住宅的供應則未必需要增加。不過，由於從03、04年政府減少土地供應，因此從現時政府開始規劃新的住宅用地，到新的 公屋和居屋推出，需要4、5年的時間，這段時間樓宇仍供不應求，為樓價提供支持。 

若加息3厘 樓價料跌20% 

　至於近期有一些美國聯儲局官員提出在今年底前逐步退出量化寬鬆貨幣政策，對本港樓市的影響？林一鳴 認為，出於政治的考慮，奧巴馬政府在今年底退市的機會很小，而最快要到明年才會逐步退市。他預計若未來本港跟隨美國加息2、3厘，本港樓價下跌的幅度約 15%至20%，而去年本港樓價就上升約20%，因此加息對本港樓市不會產生根本性影響，即引起樓價的大幅下跌。要等到4、5年後本港住宅供應大幅增加之 時，才會對樓市產生較大影響。

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