文匯報: 金價將現技術調整

英皇金融集團（香港）總裁　黃美斯

SPDR 持金量增至762噸

倫敦黃金上周五下跌，因美元和全球股市上漲，但基金持續增持黃金，因投資者預計二十國集團(G20) 峰會可能不會在協調刺激措施方面達成共識。金價一度跌見1,211美元，尾盤回返至1,222美元水平。金價本月料大有機會上漲逾9%，為2012年1月 以來的最大月度漲幅，避險買盤在2月11日將金價提升至一年高位。儘管周五金價下跌，黃金仍再次受到避險投資者的青睞。全球最大上市交易黃金基金SPDR Gold Trust持金量周五升見至762.40噸，達到2015年3月以來最高。

展望本周，央行方面有澳洲央行召開政策會議，此外還有其他國家央行官員講話。而經濟數據方面，可關注多國PMI、PPI、GDP以及國際貿易數據，周五公佈的美國非農就業報告對判斷美聯儲3月政策方向也至關重要。

金價阻力1260美元

技術圖表所見，自2011年高位1,920美元起始的下跌浪，其61.8%反彈水平為1,260美 元，於今年2月11日觸及此區後回挫，而上周三亦在1,250區域受阻回落，預計短線仍會以1,260美元為重要參考水平，倘若金價後市可升破此區，才示意着新一輪升勢的啟動，其後目標可先看1,278美元；至於目前即市阻力於1,240及1,246美元。另一方面，較近支持在10天平均線1,220及短 期上升趨向線1,212，關鍵則在1,200美元關口。

白銀失守支持偏弱 

倫敦白銀方面，在過去兩周多均見守穩200天的平均線，在上周五卻出現失守，低見至14.64美元的三周低位。目前200天平均線處於14.95美元，將成為反制阻力參考；較大阻力見於15.60及15.90美元。下方則暫見於100天平均線14.62水平尋獲支撐。

東網: 人行決定下調存準率0.5個百分點 夜期倒升

人民銀行公布，自2016年3月1日起，普遍下調金融機構人民幣存款準備金率0.5個百分點，以保持金融體系流動性合理充裕，引導貨幣信貸平穩適度增長， 為供給側結構性改革營造適宜的貨幣金融環境。人民銀行表示，降準有助於信貸借貸及貨幣供應的適當增速。人行上次放水為去年10月23日，當時降準兼減息並 行。

Why Is The Dutch Central Bank Suddenly Moving Its Gold? And Why Is ABN Amro Becoming Bullish?

www.zerohedge.com

An interesting fact has hit the newswires earlier this week, as the Dutch Central Bank confirmed it was looking to (temporarily?) move its gold reserves to another secure location. The DNB claims it has to renovate its vaults and thus needs to store the yellow metal elsewhere and that’s quite surprising as the central bank repatriated a large part of its gold reserves less than 18 months ago.

If this renovation has been scheduled a long time ago, why were the Netherlands so anxious to bring its gold back home? And why is the central bank using ‘renovations’ as the official reason even though some officials have indicated the DNB might be looking to permanently store the gold elsewhere?

Of course, as it’s a government institution, ‘poor planning’ always is a very valid excuse and even though it would make more sense to first think where the DNB would store the gold, politicians and commissioners appointed by the political system aren’t really known to make the best decisions. But there’s another possibility here. Officially, the Dutch central bank is no longer leasing its gold to commercial counterparties, but the possibility the central bank has been forced into a corner by the other central banks is not impossible.

Source: Vossen.info

The demand for physical gold is booming, and it’s a very big coincidence the Dutch Central Bank is considering to move its gold again during these volatile times. After all, we can’t imagine the bank will find a suitable place to store almost 200 tonnes of gold within the next few quarters or years so if the renovation of the bank is really necessary, where do you think the DNB will have to store its gold again? Yes, indeed, in the vaults of another foreign central bank.

This could indicate two things. First of all, it’s possible the DNB has been asked to do certain other market participants a favor by delivering physical gold upon their request as some parties on the futures-market might be unable to effectively deliver the gold their futures are representing. There obviously is no hard evidence to support this theory but even by looking at just the retail sales of the US Mint, the gold sales have more than doubled compared to last year. In the first 7 weeks of this year, the total amount of American Eagles minted and sold consisted of almost 200,000 ounces gold whereas the total demand for gold in January and February (full month) was less than 100,000 ounces in 2015 and just 120,000 ounces in 2014. So the demand for bullion is definitely there, both from retail and from central banks.

China still remains the largest net purchaser of gold as the country acquired 128 tonnes of the precious metal (4.1 million ounces) in just December and January so the total amount of physical gold available for other market parties is very low. In fact, we estimate China took delivery of a total amount of gold in 2015 equivalent to 40% of the annual world production and that should tell you a lot, as India also imported a total of 1,000 tonnes of the yellow metal. So, the total demand for physical gold from India and China combined is the equivalent of in excess of 70% of the total gold production in the world, and that’s massive.

Source: 24hgold.com

Throw in the fact the total amount of registered gold at the COMEX (the gold that is available for physical delivery) has reached multi-year lows (see the previous image), and the decision of the Dutch Central Bank to think about ‘relocating’ the gold again is very intriguing.

On top of that, ABN Amro, which has been extremely bearish on the gold price, predicting we would see $800-900 soon has now completely changed its mind and is now predicting to see $1300  before the end of this year.
An acute outbreak of gold fever? Time will tell!

東網: 人民幣利息

中銀香港(02388)繼上周初加息後，今日掉頭減人民幣存款年息，該行下調3及6個月期新資金團購優恵，其中6個月期年息減15點子後穿4厘關，僅3.95厘，起存金額2萬元人民幣

渣打香港1個月期狠劈2.5厘至2厘，入閘門檻10萬港元

東網: 差估署：1月私樓售價4連跌 細單位累跌9%

差餉物業估價署最新數據顯示，本港今年1月私人住宅租售價指數均呈4連跌。其中，1月私人住宅樓價指數報278.7點，按月跌2.24%，按年跌2.07%。1月私人住宅租金指數報168.8點，按月跌1.45%，按年則升0.89%。

1月樓價指數為連續4個月下跌，跌幅為8.95%。其中面積逾1,722方呎以上的大單位跌幅最急，累跌9.16%，其次面積753至1,075方呎的中型單位累積跌幅9.01%，而面積約430方呎以下的細單位則累跌8.95%。

1月租金指數亦為4個月連續下跌，跌幅4.9%。其中面積約430至752方呎的中小型單位跌幅最大，累積7.09%。其次為細單位累積3.68%。

東網: 億元六合彩明日揭盅 市民湧投注站瘋購彩票

史上最高彩金的1億元六合彩金多寶明日(3月1日)開彩。而根據賽馬會網頁，現時億元六合彩的投注額已經破2億，達208,706,920元。位於中環天 星投注站，午後持續有大批市民到場購買彩票，人龍伸延到投注站外。至於曾售出42次六合彩頭獎彩票的中環士丹利街投注站，至少300名市民在場買彩票，人龍綿延至威靈頓街。

今日行過見好多人排隊, 問排乜野, 原來是買六合彩 !

今早聽電台說, 大陸打蛇餅為買樓, 真是同香港呢刻來比, 一天一地!

東網: Money Honey：八達通是「劣幣」？

Honey上周去了上海數天，在Airbnb訂了位於徐匯區的一間老房子，在小區較多見的是中年或老人，但附近一間連鎖超市已可用Apple Pay來付款。當丹麥將成為全球首個無現金國家，中國雖距離尚遠，但香港的電子錢包發展停滯不前。

在上海及蘇州坐了不下10趟的士，所有司機都裝了滴滴打車等類似軟件，沿路不停收到周邊用戶call車的語音提示，不停讀出上、落客地點，令人不勝其煩，但聽得出民眾已高度習慣手機call的士，街上大量「吉車」也不載客，應該準備接客，現金在內地已少了支付車費的功能。

Honey在星巴克及超市等「數散紙」時，見到唔少人用手機付款，概嘆香港幾時可以一機在手，世界通行。支付寶及微信支付在內地的滲透度高，加上Apple Pay兩周前正式「登陸」，小米也揚言要在手機支付市場分一杯羹。

然而，WeChat Pay(微信支付海外版)目前在港只提供線上購物服務，還未推出線下商戶付款，港人等Apple Pay等到頸都長。

有 說在「井底」的港人慣性倚賴八達通，消費者及商戶改用手機支付的動力不大，但英國人也慣用Oyster Card(等同八達通)出入，但Apple Pay一出，大家都非常樂意使用(雖出現有人用Apple Watch入閘，iPhone出閘等技術問題)。科技應用上若持續落後，恐怕會出現「劣幣」驅逐「良幣」？

財經分析員Money Honey

東網: 港珠澳橋挖海床 大澳湧現毒海產

港珠澳大橋工程於大澳鄰近水域加緊施工，隨時變相製造「毒海產」。本報記者聯同專家於大澳購入多款聲稱產自附近水域的魚類及貝殼類海產進行化驗，結果發現 重金屬超標；其中鰂魚含鎘量超標近一倍，其餘大部分樣本含鉛量亦超標，至於含鎘量最高的扇貝，現時本港並未制訂最高准許濃度，但以魚類同一標準計，超標亦 達四倍。學者認為，海產重金屬含量超標，不排除與挖掘海床揚起沉積物有關；市民攝取過量，會對肝、腎及腦部造成損害，孕婦腹中胎兒腦部發育會出現障礙，就 算將有關魚類加工製成鹹魚或曬乾，亦未能令所含重金屬減少，遺害依然。

東網: 澳洲假50蚊紙泛濫 商家銀行心慌慌

偽鈔泛濫令人真假難分，澳洲近日有面值50澳元的偽鈔充斥巿面，其質量之高連銀行的驗鈔系統亦不能分辨。不少商店和餐廳員工難以分辨真偽，造成的經濟損失達數以百萬澳元，當地賭場對偽鈔亦提高警覺。

維多利亞省偽鈔問題嚴重，今年發現的偽鈔數量是2010年的8倍。有當地傳媒就教導民眾如何分辨偽鈔，例如在紫外光燈照射下，真鈔會顯示「50」的字樣；真鈔是塑膠印刷，難以撕爛及在擠壓後會彈回。

東網: 日本梅毒女患者倍增 或與性伴侶增多有關

根據日本國立感染症研究所數據，日本的梅毒患者於1948年接近22萬人，之後因開發治療藥物令人數大減。1990年代後，患者人數下降至1000人以 下。然而，自2010年起，梅毒患者開始增加，去年超過2600人。其中，女性患者的增加特別明顯。截至去年10月，女性患者人數是前年同期的2倍，達 574人，而15至35歲患者佔76%。

報告顯示，在歐美、加拿大、澳洲及中國等地，也出現梅毒患者增加的趨勢。國立感染症研究所細菌第一部部長大西真表示，目前尚未有報告顯示，梅毒細菌的傳染力突然增強或藥物失效，只能推測不論是同性間還是異性間，增加與非固定性伴侶發生性行為是原因。

Dow Outlook – Month End February 2016

www.armstrongeconomics.com

Technically, the Dow Jones Industrials was almost set up to make a “Channel Move” between two channels. But they interestingly over-lapped instead with no gap between. This is one reason the SP500 could break last years low but not the Dow. We made a new high for the month on Friday closing at 16639.97. We elected a minor Monthly Bullish Reversal in the Dow last month at 16175. Here the low remains the week of January 20th. We really need a monthly closing above 17800 to signal a breakout to the upside is likely. We have a Directional Change in March and the target for a turning point comes in April and then June.

Keep in mind that is the Euro starts to give way, more and more capital will flee Europe into the USA. The smart money will buy the equity rather than government bonds.

A month-end closing ABOVE 16934 will be bullish. A closing beneath this level is will still bearish near-term.

東網: 張建宗：料低收入津貼惠及70萬人

勞工及福利局局長張建宗出席活動時表示，今年5月將推出低收入在職家庭津貼，撥款29億元，預料70萬人可受惠，即20萬家庭，當中17萬人為兒童或青年。

另外，2元乘車優惠計劃分階段擴展至綠色專線小巴，目前每日約95萬人次長者及合資格殘疾人士使用該計劃，其中83萬人次為長者。

Harvey Organ: Options Expiration RAID!

真係禁住金銀價來個期權結算, 所以想買平貨要乘機啦 !

www.silverdoctors.com全文

Posted on February 26, 2016

We are now entering the last week of the month and you all know that it means with respect to keeping the price of gold/silver in check until March 1
options expiry:
for the Comex:  Wednesday Feb 24   expired
for OTC and LBMA: Monday, Feb 29.

Generally the bankers get their way during options expiry week.  Yesterday lease rates went dramatically lower on silver and gold.  That told me that today, the bankers would try and raid.  During last night and early this morning, they used every “paper” muscle they could but instead they came up against huge physical demand and lo and behold gold basically finished unchanged.  Today was a huge victory for us in gold.  The bankers will regroup and again try and raid tomorrow or on Monday.

Dear Warren, Nothing Lasts Forever

www.zerohedge.com全文

In his latest letter to investors, Cherry-Coke-sipping Warren Buffett went full fiction-peddle-tard. As the man who perhaps best rode the coat-tails of an ever-increasing wave of American credit expansion exceptionalism (only to come undone in recent times as that game ends), it is no surprise that he explains "for 240 years it’s been a terrible mistake to bet against America, and now is no time to start." We don't mean to rain on his parade too much, but the following charts suggest "nothing lasts forever" and time is ticking.

For a man who runs a massive, highly-levered portfolio of assets exposed to 'Murica, it is hardly surprising Buffett would utter the following:

"For 240 years it’s been a terrible mistake to bet against America, and now is no time to start.

America’s golden goose of commerce and innovation will continue to lay more and larger eggs.

America’s social security promises will be honored and perhaps made more generous.

And, yes, America’s kids will live far better than their parents did."

The trouble is - taking each statement...

Nothing lasts forever...

History did not end with the Cold War and, as Mark Twain put it, whilst history doesn’t repeat it often rhymes. As Alexander, Rome and Britain fell from their positions of absolute global dominance, so too has the US begun to slip.  

America’s global economic dominance has been declining since 1998, well before the Global Financial Crisis. A large part of this decline has actually had little to do with the actions of the US but rather with the unraveling of a century’s long economic anomaly. China has begun to return to the position in the global economy it occupied for millenia before the industrial revolution. Just as the dollar emerged to global reserve currency status as its economic might grew, so the chart below suggests the increasing push for de-dollarization across the 'rest of the isolated world' may be a smart bet...

If you don't think these apply, please check back in at the end of the year. We'll have a firmer grasp of social depression in December 2016... and so will Warren!

東周網: 猴年香港動盪 警察壓力大

香港猴年不太平，新春伊始，即發生旺角騷亂，更有警察遇襲受傷。

李丞責師傅在《談笑豐猴2016生肖運程》書中，早就預測到香港運勢在這個猴年並不簡單順利，更會有很多大型示威活動，而香港警察在這個猴年，更會遇上各種問題，壓力特別大。

大型死傷事件

李丞責師傅預測猴年，香港地運受到「驛馬」星會合凶神來沖動，所以以往只發生在其他地區的事，猴年有機會在香港出現。

「從凶而言，猴年香港滿街都是孤單寂寞人。當然一部分是上街的示威群眾，包括政治要求與一般民生要求，但人數是比以往的多，多得不得了，大型的抗議示威活動更見頻繁。

此外，今年更會出現有一股令人更難堪的景象，就是街上有機會發生龐大數目的死傷事件。當年的高雄大爆炸，猴年會換作另一種事情或方式出現在香港。總之，這種苦楚會令人有種痛得『入骨入肉』的感覺。」

不過，李師傅亦指出，香港會在猴年進入新時代。

「從吉而論，變幻反而會給香港進入另一個新時代，新天地，是一失還一得的局面。不少的比賽或競爭容易揚威海外，能得外地或外國人支持。」

政治陷害

不過，說到香港的政治氣氛，李丞責師傅就指出，猴年是失運年，是有人被迫進死角之年，或許與二○一七選舉年有關。

「猴年的『殺戮』、『討價還價』、『恐嚇』、『強奪』的氣氛特別濃厚，從政者或參與運動或相關的人士，更要小心，星宮顯示這類人最易惹來麻煩，會受困，或監禁，或被殺，有意進行活動，或表達訴求的人，如果感覺自己是處於弱勢，必須事前做風水化煞，或祈福祭祀才可辦事，這有利減低遇上意外的風險。」

「香港的政壇，政治操作陷於一片『殺戮』氣氛，虛假事、不能兌現的事層出不窮。猴年更是正宗的政治陷害年，誰擁有豐厚資源，就有能力把對手陷害。」

警察對手多 

二○一六猴年，可能是香港警察精神最緊張的一年，壓力超乎過往之大，警務人員要面對以下幾種問題。

（一）拔出「武器」的次數特別多，隨時誤「射」的機會率亦比以前增多。
（二）由於事態嚴重又頻繁出現，能分辨現場環境，或事件的細節與始末，一點都不容易。
（三）警方會為某些死去的人作出評論或解畫，但隨時越描越黑，初期令人難以置信，有苦自己知。
（四）警方內部，尤其面對社會人事，猴年的對手特別多，而且會一窩蜂出現。例如思想極端份子、恐怖份子、精神病人、黑社會等等。

東網: 內地不良信貸資產證券化 首宗或達10億人幣

內地不良貸款率連升10個季度，最新傳出不良信貸資產證券化有新進展，為壞帳減壓。內地媒體報道，經過1年籌備後，中國銀行(03988)不良資產證券化(ABS)首期方案已於近日上報監管部門，若能順利獲批，即可在銀行間市場發行，首批發行規模或達10億元人民幣(下同)，招商證券為牽頭主承銷商，與多家機構組成承銷團。

報道又指，中行首單不良ABS原計劃於今年3月發行，但監管部門認為中行上報方案擬發行規模近3億元「太小」，要求擴大發行規模，故最終擴大至10億元左右，連帶發行時間也要進一步延後。截至2015年底止，內地商業銀行不良貸款餘額達到1.27萬億元，不良率上升至1.67%，為連續10個季度攀升。

東網: 華爾街日報：中國正過渡至幾乎沒現金的生活

中國政府最近發布報告顯示，去年3.58億中國人——佔該國網民大約一半——曾使用移動設備進行支付，比2014年增加了將近三分之二。正如很多中國人直接從個人計算機跳躍至智能手機，他們的支付習慣也發生了類似跳躍。

在迅速發展的移動支付市場中，200多家公司在展開競爭。總部設在北京的研究公司易觀國際稱，阿里巴巴集團的支付寶佔據主導地位，佔2015年總交易額的73%。騰訊公司的產品微信支付排在第二，約佔13%。

分析人士估計，去年，中國人使用移動設備進行支付和轉賬總額達16.4萬億元人民幣，約為2014年的兩倍、2013年的12倍多。

報道稱，阿里巴巴和騰訊起到了推動作用。除了 將其支付系統與各自的電子商務網站以及送餐、叫車、通訊和提供其他商品和服務的應用軟件連接起來，他們還與數以百萬計傳統零售商簽約，從餐館、夫妻店到沃爾瑪。

報道指，日常購物，中國消費者會在社區超市或京東和一號店等在線零售商處購買很多食品雜貨。他們用微信向這些零售商付款，也用微信向附近一家街邊商店訂購生鮮產品、讓店家送貨上門並付款。嬰兒紙尿褲和貓糧都從阿里巴巴公司旗下淘寶網上購買，用支付寶付款。

水電煤氣繳費。他們用支付寶支付電話費、電費和水費。只有煤氣費仍需要通過銀行繳納。

就餐。他們用訂餐軟件訂外賣，用支付寶或微信付款。在外出就餐時，很多餐館，包括小麵館以及肯德基和麥當勞等大型西式快餐連鎖店也接受支付寶或微信付款。理財。他們在支付寶的貨幣市場基金中存了大約10萬元，年收益約為2.6%，高於國有銀行的0.3%。但是，樸建峰也說，他沒有投資支付寶的共同基金和保險產品，因為收益低於他們的預期。

大宗購物。很多中國人也聽說過關於信用卡欺詐的恐怖故事，例如，店員刷兩次卡或持卡人在退款方面遇到問題，因此，他和妻子更願意在有信譽的連鎖店購買大宗商品。去年，他們的最大宗購物是，在一家電器連鎖店買了一台1萬多塊錢的空氣淨化器——通過支付寶。

商用用品採購。此前，為了不被收取信用卡手續費，樸建峰向供應商支付現金。現在，供應商也接受移動支付了。

原來反而信用卡是最信唔過, 真係跌眼鏡 !

London Luxury-Home Prices Reduced at Highest Rate Since 2013

倫敦樓價跌啦 !

www.bloomberg.com

Sellers of luxury London homes are cutting asking prices on the largest proportion of properties in at least three years as high values, commodity-price declines and new taxes damp demand.

Vendors have cut the asking prices on 39 percent of homes in central London’s best districts since they were first offered for sale, according to data compiled by researcher Lonres in January. That’s up from 33 percent a year earlier, the data shows.

The reductions come ahead of an increase in the stamp-duty sales tax in April to as much as 15 percent for the costliest homes for landlords and second-home buyers. The number of properties sold in the boroughs of Westminster and Kensington and Chelsea fell more than 25 percent from January through October 2015 compared with a year earlier, broker Knight Frank LLP said this month.

“We have lost a whole chunk of the typical investment buyers,” said Roarie Scarisbrick, a partner at Property Vision Ltd., a broker that advises prime-home buyers.“They are put off by stamp duty.”

Values in London’s best districts rose 5 percent in the 12 months through January to a median of more than 932,000 pounds ($1.3 million), according to an analysis of preliminary Land Registry data by Bloomberg. The most expensive home sold in January was a townhouse in Mayfair that fetched 15.7 million pounds. The eight-bedroom property has a roof terrace, cinema room, gym and plunge pool, according to an Internet listing for the property.

Prices across London postcodes rose 12.7 percent in the 12 months through January and the median value is now almost 505,000 pounds, the Land Registry data shows. The average purchaser borrowed 339,000 pounds when buying a home in the U.K. capital in the fourth quarter, according to government statistics.

東網: 印尼火山噴發 村民膠袋笠頭急撤

印尼北蘇門答臘錫納朋火山昨日爆發，噴出大量火山灰及碎屑，瀰漫附近多條村落，逾一萬名村民需要疏散避難。照片可見，民眾戴上口罩，部分甚至以膠袋笠頭，紛紛駕車或步行撤離，到庇護中心暫避。

東網: 未能埋林鄭身 退保諮詢示威者衝台掟標語牌

扶貧委員會今午就退休保障舉行第二場公眾諮詢會，身兼扶委會主席的政務司司長林鄭月娥有份出席，約147名市民出席。約於下午3時半，當林鄭月娥完成其開 場發言時，出席諮詢會的數名爭取全民退休保障聯席及社民連成員，包括主席吳文遠，約四五人手持標語牌，企圖衝到台前示威及與林鄭月娥理論，惟遭保安上前阻 止。

林鄭月娥則表示，留意到大部分退休人士均支持有經濟審查的方案，反而年輕人卻支持不論貧富方案，她稱讚退休人士與香港一同成長、拼博，珍惜香港，非常值得尊敬，但她重申，退休保障政策影響香港深遠，要細緻研究，明言今屆政府難以落實任何方案。

“Buy Gold” As “Insurance Is Warranted” – Deutsche Bank

www.zerohedge.com

Buy gold as "insurance is warranted", Deutsche Bank have advised in a note issued today.

The embattled German bank has said that rising economic risks and market turmoil mean investors should buy gold for insurance.


Market Performance - 2016 YTD via Finviz.com 

"There are rising stresses in the global financial system; in particular the rising risk of a U.S. corporate default cycle and the risk of a sharp one-off renminbi devaluation due to the sharp increase in China's capital outflows," Deutsche Bank added." Buying some gold as 'insurance' is warranted," as reported by CNBC.

Presenting America's Own "Ghost Cities"

笑中國 ?
美國也有鬼城 !

www.zerohedge.com

We’ve written quite a bit about the decline of America’s once proud manufacturing industry which is now but a shadow of its former self and long ago ceded its place in the public’s heart and mind to the service industry, as US citizens are far more concerned with whether they can get a $6 latte than with whether the economy provides enough breadwinner jobs to keep the majority of the population from having to... well, serve $6 lattes for a living.

And if it was already bad, it's getting worse.

In fact, as we noted just days ago, the last time manufacturing was this bad in the US, Ben Bernanke introduced QE3.

In other words, no populist presidential candidate promising to “make the country great again” is going to turn this around - and it won't be for lack of effort. It's just economics. The jobs aren’t coming back from China and the “made in America” stamp is a relic a bygone era. The American economy is now a bartender and waiter creation machine and it's come at the expense of the still declining manufacturing sector. 

Needless to say, this has gutted America's Rust Belt, which is now nothing more than a now desolate reminder of a golden era in America's history that has long since passed and as RealtyTrac reports, "among 147 metropolitan statistical areas with at least 100,000 residential properties, those with the highest share of vacant properties were [unsurprisingly] Flint, Michigan (7.5 percent), Detroit (5.3 percent), Youngstown, Ohio (4.4 percent), Beaumont-Port Arthur, Texas (3.8 percent), and Atlantic City, New Jersey (3.7 percent)."

Port Arthur has never been a bastion of stability and the decline of Atlantic City has been well documented, but the malaise in Flint, Detroit, and Youngstown clearly reflects the decline in American industry and suggests the pain (exacerbated by China's acute overcapacity problem) is only beginning. In Flint, for instance, one in six houses is vacant and in the metro area, the vacancy rate is 7.5%. In all, some 9,800 homes are empty in Flint. Some of this is attributable to the water scandal. “The water crisis did not cause the high vacancy rate in Flint, but it will certainly exacerbate it,” RealtyTrac VP Daren Blomquist said. Here's more:

"Distressed cities like Flint struggle to generate enough revenue locally to reinvest back into critical infrastructure, such as water systems. Decades of disinvestment and job and population loss have led to a phenomenal erosion of the tax base, both in terms of the number of taxpayers and in terms of the value of the land. As a result, cities with high levels of abandonment, like Flint, are faced with the financial challenge of needing to maintain and reinvest in a scale of infrastructure that was once supported by a tax base more than twice its current size.

In Detroit, there are 53,000 empty homes - that's one empty home for every five.

 

Blame China? Maybe. But some officials say other factors are at play.

"There’s a philosophy of government that has been writing these places off -- places like Flint get written off,” Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Mich.) previously told HuffPost. “And, to me, even though those people making those decisions might not see it this way, it’s hard for me to accept the fact that race is not the most significant factor.”

One bank CEO outlines what will happen to your bank account if the Fed takes interest rates negative

如果美國負利率, 到時港元都會負利率嗎 ?

以為唔關自已事, 好快就殺到門口 !

finance.yahoo.com

By Bob Bryan 

Since the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan moved their interest rates negative, a debate has swirled over the practical and theoretical impacts of the move.

But according to the CEO of a major US bank, if the US Federal Reserve were to do the same, it would have a serious practical impact on customers' bank accounts.

Analysts at Deutsche Bank hosted meetings with PNC Bank's chairman and CEO, Bill Demchak, last week and addressed the possibility of negative rates.

The answer was simple: "If rates go negative, consumer deposit rates go to zero and PNC would charge fees on accounts."

This means that customers who hold accounts at the bank would have to pay PNC, the 10th-largest bank in the US by assets, a fee to hold the money in the bank instead of vice versa.

And while today's interest rates may be paltry, customers can at least earn something for parking their cash at the bank.

For example, in New York City a PNC savings account with under $2,500 earns 0.01% interest monthly — 0.05% if you have a PNC checking account — according to the company's website. Standard savings accounts with over $2,500 earn 0.10% interest with a PNC checking account.

In terms of fees, a PNC savings account with under $300 in average monthly assets is charged a $5-a-month service fee. This is waived if the balance is above that threshold.

But based on Demchak's remarks, however, these fees seem likely to increase.

Earlier this month during congressional testimony, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen was asked extensively about negative interest rates. She said that while the Fed was investigating the impact of such a move it was unlikely to happen anytime soon, saying, "We have work to do to judge whether they would be workable here."

And with the Fed seemingly intent on raising interest rates, a cut to negative territory is very much speculative at this point. But the market is certainly asking about it.

So while the initial market-based evidence suggests negative interest rates have been bad for the global economy, this is among the first evidence on how this move could affect regular consumers in the US.

Aggressive Silver Capping Continues – Huge Commercial Raid Coming?

大鱷繼續追摯白銀價, 是想推低個價來買實貨銀嗎 ?

www.silverdoctors.com

Submitted by Craig Hemke, TFMetals Report:

That’s truly the $64MM question. Why are The Silver Banks shorting so aggressively here? What’s the difference in holding price below $16 versus $18 or $20? We’ll get a look at the latest CoT data tomorrow but, for now, consider this:

There was a CoT survey taken on Tuesday, December 29, 2015. The closing price of silver that day was $13.93. The data showed that the Silver Commercial NET short position was just under 30,000 contracts as they were long 52,149 contracts and short 82,027.

The most recent CoT data released last Friday was surveyed back on Tuesday, February 16. That day, silver closed at $15.33. Versus December 29, price had risen by $1.40 or almost exactly 10%. And how had the Silver Commercial NET short position changed? They were now long 44,638 contracts and short 114,700 for a NET short position of 70,062 contracts. Again, this is the largest Silver Commercial NET short position since 2008.

Additionally, look at what has transpired in the six days since that last CoT survey. Total Comex silver open interest has risen by another 7,000 contracts, which very likely increases the Silver Commercial NET short position to over 75,000 contracts…all the while, price has actually fallen by 4¢.

Therefore, it isn’t very difficult  to predict what’s likely to come next. A price raid. Do you recall this chart from last October?

It is abundantly clear that JPM and their fellow Big Shorts on the Comex are intent upon attempting to enforce lower prices. Otherwise, why would they be so adamant about selling into and capping every attempted rally? And this latest capping effort is the most egregious yet! It’s perfectly fine for any entity, Commercial or Spec, to liquidate longs into an ongoing rally and, as noted above, the Silver Commercials have dumped nearly 7,500 contracts so far in 2016. However, what is definitely NOT fine is to allow the unlimited creation of paper silver in order to meet Speculator paper demand.

Again, note that the Silver Commercial gross short position back in late December was 82,027 contracts. That’s a contractual obligation to deliver up to 410MM ounces of silver if called upon to do so. As of last Tuesday February 16, the Silver Commercial gross short position had grown to 114,700 contracts or 573MM ounces of silver. That’s 60% of all the silver the world will mine in 2016!

So the questions must be asked again:

1. Where would price be today if the Silver Commercials had not sold and shorted so many contracts into this 2016 rally?
2. And if the buyer/seller equilibrium price was $18 instead of $15, what would be the difference?
3. And why are the Commercials so intent upon capping silver? Over the same time period, gold has risen 17% but the Gold Commercial NET short position remains below levels seen at price peaks in 2014 and 2015.

So, we’ll have to see what happens next. Logic dictates that a price raid is coming that will allow the Commercials to buy back and cover some of their short position while the Specs stream for the exits. But then what? The chart above shows an increasingly untenable position for JPM and their friends. Paper price seems to have been driven as artificially low as possible, thus the effort made to hold it back is increasing. And we haven’t even mentioned the gold:silver ratio!

What’s the best strategy for dealing with all of this? For me, it’s the continued, gradual stacking of physical silver. Predicting the precise date of the failure of the silver manipulation scheme is a fool’s errand. But, fail it will, just as all price manipulations before it have similarly failed. And, WHEN it fails, the events will be spectacular to behold.

TF

東網: 陳家強希望拖延港府出現赤字時間

財經事務及庫務局局長陳家強出席一電台節目時表示，財政預算案小組推算在2020年後，政府會出現赤字，政府成立未來基金，是希望利用盈餘及儲備投資，以拖遲出現赤字的時間。

東網: 迷你倉執笠照收費 負責人涉違商品例被捕

海關首次破獲迷你倉涉及違反商品說明條例的案件。一名在觀塘偉業街一幢工廈租用迷你倉的事主，早前到上址取回物品時，發現迷你倉已結業，惟他事前並無收到通知，一直繳付租金，事後他未能聯絡迷你倉負責人，遂向海關不良營商手法調查課報案。

海關人員經深入調查後，晚上在偉業街附近，以涉嫌違反商品說明條例，拘捕一名相信為迷你倉負責人的40餘歲男子。海關表示，現階段未知案件是否涉及更多受害人。該迷你倉已經營數年，去年10月結業。

東網: 大國各懷鬼胎 難望合力扶危

二十國集團(G20)會議目的是讓各個經濟強國齊心維繫全球金融穩定，但現今各行其是，歐洲和日本實施負利率，美國處於加息周期，分化日益嚴重。現於上海 召開的G20會議，能拉攏各國達成政策協調具體措施的機會渺茫，往往留下一紙會後空言，承諾亦淪為泛泛之談。然而，正如人行行長周小川所言，每個國家的貨 幣政策均是以自身經濟作考量，但也應該互相討論「外溢效應」，免得讓危機幅射擴散。

中國確定今年G20峰會為「構建創新、活力、聯動、包容的世界經濟」，可惜的是，我們看到的是中國和美國兩大經濟體為南海針鋒相對，TPP將中國分割孤立 起來，歐美日政策各走極端，各國或明或暗在打貨幣戰，油國各懷鬼胎，即使英國內部亦為脫歐或留歐爭議不休。在2009年4月破天荒攜手救市後，G20已變得各家自掃門前雪，甚至互責不是；惟全球經濟並非零和遊戲，待危機發生才展開合作，恐為時已晚。

Asia shares nudge up as G20 talks, oil holds gains

finance.yahoo.com

By Wayne Cole

SYDNEY (Reuters) - Asian shares made guarded gains on Friday as a gathering of world finance leaders provided a welter of reassuring comments, but little in the way of actual policy stimulus.

Spreadbetters expect the positive momentum to extend to Europe, forecasting a higher open for Britain's FTSE (.FTSE), Germany's DAX (.GDAXI) and France's CAC (.FCHI).

Setting the tone for the Shanghai meeting of the Group of 20, China's central bank chief, Zhou Xiaochuan, said Beijing still had the room and tools to support the world's second largest economy.

Yet, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble was quick to declare that the scope for monetary and fiscal policy was exhausted globally and called for more structural reform.

The reaction in share markets was cautious. Shanghai stocks (.SSEC) added 0.5 percent, but the bounce looked unconvincing against Thursday's 6-percent slump.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan gained 0.8 percent, while South Korea (.KS11) rose 0.2 percent. Japan's Nikkei (.N225) gained 1 percent but could not quite sustain a two-week top.

The S&P 500 had already scored its highest close since early January after oil staged a turnaround to end Thursday 3 percent higher on speculation a March meeting of major producers might stabilize prices.

U.S. crude (CLc1) was trying to hold those gains on Friday, dipping just 3 cents to $33.04 a barrel. Brent (LCOc1) was 16 cents lower at $35.13.

On Wall Street, the Dow (.DJI) rose 1.29 percent, while the S&P 500 (.SPX) added 1.14 percent and the Nasdaq (.IXIC) 0.87 percent. Data showing a 4.9 percent rebound in U.S. durable goods orders underpinned the better mood.

FORLORN HOPE

With the recent market turbulence front and center, the G20 is under pressure to agree a coordinated stimulus program that could stop a global slowdown from turning into something worse.

Yet, G20 meetings have a long history of disappointing and analysts see little reason why this one should end differently.

"Amidst market turbulence there is a call to arms for the G20 to get the global economy back on track," said David Cannington, a senior economist at ANZ.

"While we can hope for a substantive policy prescription, it's a forlorn one. There is simply too much self-interest globally and that dominates group interest."

Europe would seem to need the help as long-term inflation expectations fell to record lows, piling pressure on the European Central Bank for more aggressive easing.

The closely-watched measure of inflation (EUIL5YF5Y=R) slid to 1.38 percent, having dived 35 basis points in just three months even as the ECB expanded its asset buying campaign.

As a result, yields on German 10-year paper closed at their lowest since last April and contributed to a drop in U.S. yields .

That kept the euro pinned at $1.1060 (EUR=) and far from the February top of $1.1375. The dollar was steady on the yen at 112.865 (JPY=), almost two yen higher from this week's trough.

Sterling was still nursing its wounds near a seven-year low against the dollar (GBP=) and on track for its heaviest weekly fall since 2009 on worries about a possible British exit from the European Union.

(Additional reporting by Shinichi Saoshiro in Tokyo; Editing by Eric Meijer & Shri Navaratnam)

東網: 日本總人口1.2億 首次出現負增長

日本總務省今日發布全國人口普查，初步數據顯示截至2015年10月1日，包括外國人在內日本總人口有1億2711萬人，較2010年對上一次調查時，大 減了94萬7000人，減幅為0.7%，是日本自1920年實施人口普查以來，人口首次出現負增長的情況，再次凸顯日本人口减少問題的嚴重性。

 根據最新的人口普查，日本人口增加的8個都縣中，以沖繩縣增幅最大，有3%，主要是由於當地出生率高與遷入者增加。東京的增幅為2.7%，之後是愛知、埼 玉、神奈川、福岡、滋賀及千葉縣。人口減少的39個道府縣中，33個道府縣的降幅擴大，其中秋田縣最多，達5.8%；其次為福島、青森和高知縣。總務大臣 高市早苗今早在內閣會議上表示，這是自1920年實施國情調查以來，人口第一次出現減少，而且老人的死亡人數大幅增加，自然減少率不斷擴大。

東網: 恒生：內地一線城市房價或續升

展望今年，他預期整體房地產市場有溫和復甦，但仍將繼續面臨分化。一線城市及部分二線城市房價或因補庫存而繼續上漲，銷售亦將維持較快增長，房地產新開工 面積料超過銷售面積。但大部分二線、三線以及四線城市房價將因去庫存而缺乏上漲動力，銷售或維持溫和增長，房地產新開工面積料低於銷售面積。此外，他預計 整體房地產投資增長或在房地產市場溫和復甦下低位企穩。

Is China Ready To Launch Yuan-Gold Fix By April?

www.kitco.com

(Kitco News) - While there are still a lot of unknowns and question in the marketplace, it appears that the Shanghai Gold Exchange is preparing to launch a yuan-denominated gold fix within two months.

According to media reports, quoting unnamed sources, China is planning to launch its yuan gold fix April 19 and draft rules have been sent to 10 participating banks.

However, there has been no official comment from the SGE on the new Chinese gold benchmark. News reports from the summer said that the SGE was planning to have a yuan gold fix up and running by the end of 2015.

Although there is no confirmed fixed date analysts are not surprise of an approaching yuan-gold fix as China fulfills its goal to become an international gold-trading hub.

Jeffrey Nichols, senior economic advisor for Rosland Capital LLC, said that the fix topic came up during a recent conference in Shanghai earlier in the week.

However, he said that no fixed date was actually mentioned.

“I think the plan is to launch something by the middle of April,” he said. “But the date of the launch is not actually that important. The fact is, it is coming soon.

There is a definite shift in power in the gold market towards China and this is just another part of it.”

The media reports named the 10 banks that will be the market makers for the fix: ICBC, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Bank of Communications, China CITIC Bank, China Merchants Bank, Industrial Bank Co., Bank of Ningbo and ANZ (China). If accurate, ANZ would be the only international bank participating in the new auction process.

Bernard Dahdah, precious metals analyst at Natixis, said that although the idea of a yuan-gold fix has been talked about since early 2015, he has not heard of any official launch date.

However, he added that he is not surprised that China is moving forward with its plans to create its own benchmark.

“China is the number one gold producer in the world, they are number one in consumption; they clearly have ambitions to be a gold hub,” he said.

Dahdah added China, even if it does launch a yuan-gold benchmark, will still have a long way to go to overtake the influences London and New York have in the global gold market. He added that he doesn’t see a lot of international financial institutions participating in the yuan fix.

“I think this is going to be more of a domestic market,” he said. “International companies will be hesitant to join the fix as there are still some legality issues in China and question of how potential disputes would be resolved,”

Nichols added that not only is China continuing to develop its own benchmark but Chinese banks are also trying to broaden their international reach, which could eventually lead to arbitrage opportunities between the East and the West.

“I think the creation of a yuan-gold fix will make the world gold market a lot more efficient,” he said.

By Neils Christensen of Kitco News; nchristensen@kitco.com
Follow me on Twitter @neils_C

文匯報: 觀望轉濃 歐元炒上落

馮強

金價有力上試1260美元

周三紐約4月期金收報1,239.10美元，較上日升16.50美元。現貨金價周三表現偏強，反覆重 上1,253美元水平，不過美國本周四公佈1月份內用品訂單數據前，現貨金價略為遇到獲利沽壓，一度回落至1,221美元附近。原油供應過剩，油價反彈乏 力，全球股市走勢依然動盪，高風險資產繼續受壓，若果G20會議結果未能令市場避險情緒顯著降溫，則不排除避險資金進一步流入金市。預料現貨金價將反覆走 高至1,260美元水平。

金匯錦囊

歐元：歐元將暫時活動於1.0950至1.1150美元之間。

金價：現貨金價將反覆走高至1,260美元水平。

東網: 周小川指內地個人住房加槓桿邏輯是對的

人行行長周小川表示，個人住房加槓桿邏輯是對的，住房貸款應該有大力發展的階段。個人住房貸款在銀行總貸款的比重還是偏低的，有的國家佔到40%至50%，內地只有百分之十幾。房地產市場時冷時熱，所以要進行逆周期調節。首付比例原來是30%，現在仍有空間降低。

蘋果日報: 曹仁超辭世 遺作未刊登 「恒指可能跌至8576點」

著名財經專欄作家曹仁超本周日（2月21日）離世。

即將刊登的三月刊，曹SIR對市況不感樂觀。指大市熊市二期最高點是去年4月的28588點，至今年2月中旬，已大跌10269點或36%，很可能已步入熊市三期。他直言，現時很難估向下跌有幾多，淡市莫估底，可能是40%，亦可能是70%，以去年4月高位計，恒指可能要跌至17152點，甚至8576點

他更稱，自己於2008年損失慘重後，不再相信「價值投資」，改信「趨勢投資」，並指出成功投資者必須有良好分析能力、Innovation和紀律（止蝕不止賺），但自己曾因為2009年Innovation甚差，因而錯失投資新經濟的機會。

真正經歷過股災而輸過錢的人才知真章, 所以聽一些剛起步以為自已財商好高的人說話/教學是行衰運跌入「價值投資」陷阱中 !

東網: 南亞扒手肆虐 港鐵車廂偷銀包

下午約4時，一名男子乘搭港鐵東鐵線一列前往九龍方向列車，當列車接近大圍站時，發現自己身上一個內有5000元人民幣現金的銀包不翼而飛，懷疑是早前兩名借故靠近的南亞裔男子所為。事主在大圍站落車後慌忙報警求助。警方接報到場調查，將案件列盜竊處理，暫未有人被捕。

東網: 港府統計：內地1月從港進口黃金37405公斤

港府統計數字顯示，中國內地1月從香港進口黃金37,405公斤；中國內地1月向香港出口黃金19,808公斤。

東網: 應對中國亞太崛起 澳洲增1670億港元軍費

澳洲總理特恩布爾在首都坎培拉表示，為了應對中國在亞太地區的崛起，澳洲將在未來十年增加300億澳元（約1670億港元）國防預算，到2021至 2022年國防開支將增至1950億澳元（約1.09萬億港元）。澳洲軍方並計劃採購大量新的軍備，包括72架F-35s戰機、12艘潛艇等。

特恩布爾表示，中國與越南、馬來西亞、汶萊、菲律賓和台灣等在南海島礁主權問題上存在爭議。近來，由於中國在南海部分爭議島礁上進行填海造地活動，令南海緊張關係升級。

Collapse of the EU – Is it Inevitable?

www.armstrongeconomics.com

QUESTION:

Mr. Armstrong; The World Economic Conference was outstanding. Your theme that Europe was the focal point for the coming chaos has been proven valid with each passing day. You have mentioned this is the time that will begin the collapse in public confidence within the EU even surviving. I must ask. Do you believe if they call you in and followed everything you have said, is it just too late to save Europe?

Thank you so much
PB

ANSWER:

Unfortunately, I know how to restructure Europe so it would function, but I do not believe that would even be sufficient at this stage in the game. We have probably reached the point of no return. All that is now left is the crash and burn. Only then will society reform. I simply believe we crossed that line last year. We began a new declining cycle in 2008 and that was the peak in the Euro as well. The start of the real decline in the Euro where mainstream capital begins to question when negative rates can really reverse or stimulate the economy unfolds after 2016.202. This comes into play March 13/14, 2016. This is not my personal opinion. This is just the modeling.

This seems to be so important we will try to put together a video on this matter.

東網: 美國政府警告華爾街投行：勿碰俄羅斯發債交易

據外電消息透露，美國政府已警告一些大型美國銀行不要參與俄羅斯發債交易，否則將破壞西方對俄羅斯的國際制裁。美國政府官員稱，幫助俄羅斯進行債券融資將違背制裁的目的。

據指，華爾街投行對於是否繼續推進相關事宜尚未達成共識，花旗集團人士表示不會參與。高盛和摩根大通等仍在權衡中。

Gold rises on safe-haven demand, fund purchases

finance.yahoo.com

By A. Ananthalakshmi

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Gold reversed early losses on Thursday as volatility in stock markets stoked safe-haven demand, with bullion funds seeing fresh buying from investors.

Asian shares got off to a shaky start as investors remained cautious in the face of a fragile recovery in crude oil. Safe-haven assets, including the Japanese yen, gained across the board.

Spot gold had risen 0.3 percent to $1,232.90 an ounce by 0322 GMT after earlier falling as much as 0.7 percent.

On Wednesday, gold had climbed 2 percent to $1,252.91 as lower oil prices dragged down stocks. But the metal gave up most of its gains as crude turned higher, lifting stocks.

"The volatility in oil prices and stock markets, and 'Brexit' fears are all contributing to the rising risk averse sentiment in the market," said Mark To, head of research at Hong Kong's Wing Fung Financial Group.

Sterling was near a seven-year low against the dollar and a 2-1/2 year low versus the yen on Thursday on worries Britain may exit the European Union after Prime Minister David Cameron's announcement of a June 23 referendum on Britain's membership of the EU. [USD/]

"I think there will be a stronger momentum for gold in the coming few weeks," To said.

Gold's 16-percent rally this year has been fuelled by safe-haven bids as global equities tumbled on lower oil prices and fears of an economic slowdown. The metal hit a one-year top of $1,260.60 two weeks ago.

An increase in assets of bullion-backed exchange traded funds (ETF) has also supported the rally.

Inflows into SPDR Gold Trust, the top gold ETF, since the beginning of the year have already surpassed outflows for the whole of 2015. The increase in assets so far is also the highest since 2010.

On Wednesday, holdings of the fund rose further to 760.32 tonnes, the highest since March 2015.

"The ETFs are a good indicator that money is definitely flowing into gold," said a Hong Kong-based bullion trader. "More money will start to flow in if we hold above $1,250 convincingly." 

Gold is also finding support from increasing expectations that the Federal Reserve will not raise U.S. interest rates this year after hiking rates for the first time in nearly a decade in December.

(Reporting by A. Ananthalakshmi; Editing by Michael Perry and Joseph Radford)

The Week of February 29th

www.armstrongeconomics.com

The markets have been churning back and forth. The trading range for key support and resistance in the Dow resides at 17406 and 16215. A closing outside that range on a daily basis will pick the direction.

In Gold Nearest Futures that is 1237 and 1162. Monday we will have our month-end numbers coming into play which we will address prior to.

文匯報: 避險轉濃 日圓上望110關

馮　強

金價急彈挑戰1250

周二紐約4月期金收報1,222.60美元，較上日升12.50美元。現貨金價周二在1,207美元 附近獲得較大支持後呈現反彈，周三曾走高至1,238美元附近，收復本周初所有跌幅。英國6月23日舉行脫歐公投引發市場不安，而歐洲央行將於下月加碼其 寬鬆規模之前，英國央行率先在本周二表明有機會加入寬鬆行列，引致避險資金繼續流入金市，有助金價短期表現。預料現貨金價將反覆重上1,250美元水平。

金匯錦囊

日圓：美元兌日圓將反覆下試110.00關位。

金價：現貨金價將反覆重上1,250美元水平。

東網: 北京招攬港澳專才 下月起准攜配偶子女落戶

北京近日推行新政策，容許港澳居民特殊人才帶同配偶及子女在北京定居落戶，其中創新創業人才和港澳高層人才等，更可享有聘用外籍家傭等20項出入境政策措施。新政策將於下月1日起實施，並在位於海淀區中關村「國家自主創新示範區」先行先試。

對於符合認定標準的外籍高層人才及其配偶、未成年子女，經中關村管委會推薦，可直接申請在華永久居留資格，相關的審批期限，亦由現行規定的180日，縮短為50日。

東網: 傳5大內銀聯手加強帳戶管理 推進銀行間開放合作

據內媒，工農中建交5大銀行罕見聯手共推多舉措加強帳戶管理。5大銀行承諾，將對客戶通過手機銀行辦理的境內人民幣轉帳匯款免收手續費，對客戶5,000元人民幣以下的境內人民幣網上銀行轉帳匯款免收手續費，以降低客戶的費用支出。

此外，5大銀行將推進銀行間開放合作。在系統改造後，5大銀行將率先在相互之間開展客戶銀行帳戶信息驗證，並願意與其他有意向的商業銀行機構一起，就客戶跨銀行帳戶服務開展合作。

東網: 傳深圳限購抬門檻

據內媒，深圳已計劃調整非本地戶籍人口的購房準入條件，購房人士社保繳納年限由1年變成3年，並於短期執行

另消息指廣東全省除深圳外，推「跨區首套」新政。廣東天河、海珠、越秀、黃埔、番禺、荔灣及增城區稅局通知，買家只要在該區無房就按首套房交契稅；地稅部門工作人員透露，廣東全省除深圳外，都將執行這一政策。

深圳擬調控房價　房產股受壓

格力地產(600185.SH)跌1.3%報17.03元人民幣(下同)，金地集團(600383.SH)跌1.3%報14.54元，保利地產(600048.SH)跌1.1%報9.27元。

傳廣州已暫停跨區首套契稅優惠

明報: 官永義老貓燒鬚 ELN蝕逾千萬

官永義(圖)鍾情炒股，最近卻老貓燒鬚。佢早排透過永義實業(0616)及永義國際(1218)分別買咗港交所(0388)同南方A50(2882)嘅ELN(股票掛鈎票據)，依家兩邊都輸到要接貨，帳面合共勁蝕1014萬元。

永義國際喺上個月就分別局住買入X安碩A50(2823)、建行(0939)同工行(1398)嘅股份，合共錄得未變現虧損1630萬元

當大眾勇炒股票衍生工具時, 就是股市大跌時, 小心小心 ! 

Financial Reset to Occur THIS WEEKEND?

金融改革, 不可不防 !

www.silverdoctors.com 全文

They told us the financial and economic world would reset, they just didn’t tell us when. 
 
This weekend’s upcoming G-20 meeting is a potential platform for massive change.  Were the world to turn their backs collectively on the dollar, what would it accomplish?

First, we would see a massive devaluation in the dollar and an easing of the synthetic dollar short squeeze…

Submitted by Bill Holter, JSMineset:
 
Are the Chinese being truthful? I believe they are speaking out of both sides of their mouth but can support either case, let me explain. If you will notice, many foreign currencies are trading near lows versus gold (the equivalent of being devalued). Another way to say this is gold is trading close to all time highs in many various currencies. For the yuan to be pegged to these depreciating currencies would mean the yuan will simply go with the flow so to speak and trade down against gold. On the other hand, we have the trade versus the dollar.

In this case the yuan has stalled its gradual strengthening and has instead weakened. This move to change the peg by the Chinese has giant implications but very little has been said in the press to this point.

Another piece of news yesterday, the Chinese are buying U.S. companies at a record pace China is buying up American companies fast, and it’s freaking people out . These deals are all reported in dollars and I would assume dollars are being used for purchase. This would amount to what we have talked about for a long time, “selling dollars for stuff”! It is said this action is scaring people, maybe so but can you imagine what would happen should the Chinese be told “no, you cannot use your dollars to buy U.S. companies”? Tying this together, I just wanted to point out China is the clear leader in the G-20, they are now admitted as part of the SDR basket, their forex reserves have been dropping (they are said to be defending the yuan, are they?), they are spending dollars on “stuff” and foreign companies …and they no longer want to peg the yuan directly to the dollar? (Just as a reminder, they are also the largest buyer of gold on the planet).

Now, lets fast forward to next Monday and the aftermath of the G-20. It is obvious there are huge stresses both economically and financially on a globe wide basis. Has the rest of the world “had enough”? Are they tired of being forced to settle in a currency that is now artificially strong due to synthetics yet freely printed by a nation increasingly viewed as the world’s bully? I would definitely say the answer is yes they are. The next question is; “ARE THEY TIRED ENOUGH”?

I don’t know the answer to this but I do know this upcoming G-20 meeting is a potential platform for massive change. Were the world to turn their backs collectively on the dollar, what would it accomplish? First, we would see a massive devaluation in the dollar and an easing of the synthetic dollar short squeeze. It would also serve to “defund” the bully’s military ability …at exactly the same time it looks like U.S. so called allies Turkey and Saudi Arabia are set to invade Syria.

If you recall last fall, I think we were even given a tip off to something like this happening. A meeting between President Xi, the Pope and president Obama ended with sound bites of “wealth equality” around the world. What do you suppose they meant by this? They told us the financial and economic world would reset, they just didn’t tell us when. This upcoming G-20 finance meeting may be nothing at all or it may be the big one! Either way, it is certainly a convenient and may I say “likely” stage as it will be held in China!

東網: 倘油價續徘徊30美元 英石油業恐崩潰

隨着虧損不斷擴大及投資崩潰，英國離岸石油行業命懸一線！

英國石油天然氣協會最新發布的報告預計，倘若油價仍保持在每桶30美元左右，43%英國北海油田今年將會虧損，直言行業正處於崩潰邊緣。

英國產油商每生產1桶油需耗費52美元左右；相比之下，沙特阿拉伯和俄羅斯的產出成本低很多，分別為每桶9.9美元和17.2美元。

英國禍不單行 !

東網: 倘英「脫歐」 鎊匯隨時跌到你唔信

西證國際期貨董事劉艷玲指，現時距離6月的英國公投仍有4個多月，認為事件仍「有排煲」，她又指英鎊之前已失守1.384支持位，未來繼續看淡英鎊，中長線或見1.35水平。

東網: 當前經濟困難 財爺稱如08金融海嘯

曾俊華又指，現時確實見到世界環境惡劣，非香港一地之事，美國最近發展環境欠佳，歐洲、日本亦正經歷衰退，港作為外向小型經濟體，每逢外圍有這些事情發生，需求減少，對香港影響都會大。

曾俊華續說，自2008年金融海嘯至今，未見過一年經濟環境正常，故本港推出不同措施提振經濟，但估不到如此壞的環境，會持續到今日，如何應對的確很困難，又相信現時的困難不少於當年。

東網: 港確診H7N9首例 166接觸者需醫學監察

本港確診入冬以來首宗H7N9甲型禽流感人類感染個案，六旬男子本月初由內地蘇州回港後出現發燒、咳嗽等病徵，覆驗痰液樣本下證實「中招」，衞生署其後展開流行病學調查和追蹤接觸者。署方今指該名男病人仍在瑪嘉烈醫院的醫院管理局傳染病中心接受隔離治療，情況穩定。衞生防護中心至今確認病人的43名密切接 觸者及123名其他接觸者。

43 名密切接觸者包括病人兒子、妻子、與病人在東區醫院同一病區的12名病人、該院4名相關訪客及另外25名診所接觸者，其中病人兒子曾有喉嚨痛，但其鼻咽分泌樣本經化驗後，證實對甲型流感病毒呈陰性反應；一名同病區病人亦曾出現病徵，化驗後證實對H7呈陰性反應，對H1流感呈陽性反應，其餘人士沒有病徵。

Risk Off: US Equity Futures Tumble To 1,900 Support; Sterling Crashes, Gold Soars

股市跌, 英鎊和歐羅都跌, 油價跌, 金銀價升 !

www.zerohedge.com全文

While the prevailing dour (or perhaps sour) overnight mood was a continuation of the weak oil theme launched yesterday after Iran said the production freeze proposed by Saudi and Russia as "ridiculous", while Saudi oil minister Al-Naimi said that high-cost producers should bear the burden of reducing the current surplus (as in go out of business), risk sentiment was further dented when BOJ Governor Kuroda says he won’t target FX rates or stocks, which is clearly nonsense, and further spooked Japanese asset prices (Nikkei -0.85), while sending JGB yields to fresh record lows as follows: 10-year at -0.055%, 20-year at 0.600%, 30-year at 0.915% and 40-year at 1.035%. 

As Bloomberg adds, with the introduction of negative-rate policy, investors particularly banks are investing excess cash in govt bonds yielding more than zero, says Hideo Suzuki, chief manager, forex and financial products trading at Mitsubishi UFJ Trust & Banking, in an interview; says there’s a sense among investors that unless they buy positive-yielding debt now, they won’t be able to purchase them. Well there are always positive yielding US Treasurys, though maybe not for much longer.

Going back to oil, it seems that finally the headline chasing algos have run out of steam: "the Saudi comments stating the obvious that the output deal was really not a deal” is weighing on prices, says Global Risk Management oil risk manager Michael Poulsen, with API also pulling prices lower. It’s "maybe an overreaction to things that were clear days ago, so might be some bargain hunters cashing in their chips."

"Once again we are seeing lower oil prices halting the emerging confidence in global markets," added Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank A/S. "Lower oil prices continue to raise concerns about EM growth, a credit event among weak oil producers and selling from sovereign wealth funds."

So with the marketwide short squeeze now officially over, global selling of stocks has resumed, dragging down everything from banks to commodity producers as well as emerging markets, while in the US S&P futures have tumbled back down to just above the psychological support level of 1900 (and below DeMark's breach level) driven by another day of tumbling USDJPY, but also by the latest surge higher in gold - something which according to Goldman which has by now been stopped out of its gold "short" means systemic risk is once again rising.

Indeed, the bullish euphoria that had gripped markets as recently as Monday is all gone: "It will take some time before market sentiment does turn,” Kerry Craig, global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, told Bloomberg TV in Melbourne. “It’s still very pessimistic. Most investors are very risk averse.

You need catalysts or triggers such as an oil price stabilization, clarity about what the Fed is actually going to do and what we see happening with the Chinese currency and economic data."

How much changes in just 48 hours based on nothing but HFT algo stop hunting price action and a confirmation of what everyone already knew: that there will be no oil production cuts.

While the rest of the risk moves have seen the now all too familiar correlations (Treasuries in Europe and US surging as stocks tumble), another notable plunge has taken place in cable which continues to sell on Brexit fears and overnight dropped below 1.3900. Effectively Boris Johnson has had a more favorable impact on the British currency than a few hundred billion in BOE QE - the local stock market should be cheering on Brexit.

Oh, we almost forgot the key event of the night: Trump's juggernaut in Nevada virtually assures him the GOP presidential nomination barring some calamity. The market is desperately trying to infer if this is bullish or bearish for risk.
In summary: European shares dropped the most in two weeks and U.S. stock-index futures also sank. Crude fell through $31 a barrel in New York, after sliding last session, when Iran’s oil minister derided a plan forged by Saudi Arabia and Russia to lock production at January levels. The Russian ruble retreated with Malaysia’s ringgit and the pound weakened below $1.40 for the first time since 2009 on concern the U.K. may exit the European Union. The cost of insuring investment-grade corporate debt rose for the first time in three days, while Treasuries and the yen advanced.

Gold Could Scortch Its Way to $1400 – Stewart Thomson

www.silverdoctors.com

Submitted by Stewart Thomson, Graceland Updates: 

1. All lights for gold are green, and rather than beginning a correction, gold may be poised to intensify its rally.
2. Investors with widely differing views on gold all seem to be pressing their buy buttons at the same time. That’s something that has not happened in a long time. The bottom line is this:
3. Key bank economists are forecasting a new upcycle for commodities, which will begin later this year, India may cut the import duty on Sunday night (February 28), Shanghai prepares to launch its gold price fix, gold ETFs are adding serious tonnage, the chartists are happy, and most discussion of US interest rate policy (whether hawkish or dovish) is bullish for gold.
4. Gold is arguably entering a period of time that is best termed as, “fundamental and technical nirvana”.
5. Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge. That’s a key gold chart, using two hour bars.
6. There’s a beautiful symmetrical triangle in play, with a rough upside target of $1310.
7. Mainstream chartists are also watching gold with great interest. Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge. Bloomberg News is covering a “golden cross” event, which occurs when the 50 day moving average crosses the 200 day moving average.
8. The widespread interest in gold is creating even more demand for this mightiest of metals! Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge. Investors have added an incredible amount of gold to the SPDR fund over the past few days, taking the total tonnage to over 750 tons.
9. Indian demand has dropped dramatically in February, but that’s actually good news! To understand why I say that, please click here now. The country’s national budget is scheduled for release on Sunday, and most of India’s top jewellers are predicting a cut in the import duty, which will be a key part of that budget.
10. If the duty cut happens, jewellers may buy gold aggressively, helping push the price to the triangle pattern target of $1310.
11. Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge. This dollar-yen chart is arguably the world’s most important chart for gold investors, in the intermediate term.
12. There’s a massive head and shoulders top pattern in play for the dollar, and if the dollar can’t stage even a modest rally against the yen, gold will not suffer the major correction that most analysts are waiting for.
13. If the dollar declines further against the yen, while an Indian duty cut occurs, gold could stage a powerful “overshoot” move, well beyond the $1310 target zone, and closer to $1400.
14. It’s likely an unspoken truth in the Western gold community, that almost every analyst was caught off guard by the enormous gold price rally that followed Janet Yellen’s interest rate hike. In contrast, I calmly predicted it. Most of these analysts are now trying to claim some kind of “final low” has appeared, and they are waiting to buy a correction.
15. Unfortunately, they may be left behind, holding little or no exposure to gold, as the rally not only continues, but intensifies.
16. If Janet Yellen doesn’t raise rates in March, it will cause institutional investors to buy gold, based on their view of a more dovish Fed.
17. If she does raise rates, it will cause an even bigger rally in gold, because it will cause a panic out of the dollar and global stock markets, into the yen and gold safe haven markets.
18. Please click here now. The good news for gold is starting to arrive faster than rabbits make babies. Hong Kong is a huge market, and one that is highly trusted by institutional investors.
19. As Hong Kong creates more partnerships with China, Western institutional investors will be keen to participate, creating even more demand for gold, as mine supply remains quite static.
20. Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this spectacular GDX daily chart. I’m predicting that the inverse head and shoulders pattern that is forming now will probably come to be viewed as one of the greatest chart patterns of all time.
21. The $200 gold price rally has been a “game changer” for the bottom line profits of many gold and silver mining companies. There are a myriad of junior stocks that have rallied 100%, 200%, and more, just since December.
22. From an Elliot Wave Theory (EWT) perspective, gold, silver, and related stocks may now be rallying in a “C wave”. Of all the Elliot waves, the C wave moves the price by the largest amount, in the shortest amount of time.
23. The C wave is like a siren on the rocks for investors who are not invested, but want in. It tends to “goad” investors into expecting a correction, when rally intensification is the theme in play. When a C wave process begins to unfold, shorting needs to be held to a “bare bones minimum”, particularly when the market in play is gold.
24. The bottom line for gold stocks is this: GDX may pause in the $21 area, but investors should not be booking anything other than very light profits, until my $27 – $30 target zone is acquired!

iMoney: 萬八伙私宅動工 供應量逆市增 考驗樓市

撰文︰符廣全

 短期撤辣機會微乎其微

「即使近期股市波動之前，也不覺得股市有多旺，始終現在貨幣供應好厲害，是各國量化寬鬆的作用，現在貨幣供應比1997年多了起碼5至6倍以上，在貨幣供應很強情況下，股票卻無相應升幅，每次只要少少升浪，就被投資者cut去，投資者應審慎股市多過樓市。」

「今年內如果加息等樓市陰霾退去，加上失業率低位等數據不變，其實已經算是利好因素，但有沒有更好的樓市訊號，目前真的找不到。可以肯定的是，港人經歷過數次金融風暴，很少人現在是『瞓身式』買股票，即使恒指單日跌500點好、1,000點又好，港人反應漸漸無咁大，不像以前升市立即食魚翅，行為上不會有暴發消費，故對樓市影響也不太 大。」

撤辣之時, 就是買樓之時, 因為代表樓市跌到好殘 !

華爾街日報: 黃金和原油走勢為何背道而馳？

通常而言，原油和黃金的價格並肩而行。油價上漲會令通脹擔憂升溫，提振黃金需求，因為黃金作為一種保值工具頗具吸引力。油價下跌和通脹下降通常意味著制造商利潤率更高，對股票的需求上升，而黃金需求則下滑。

這次不同的一點可能是油價跌幅很大，足以改變投資者對風險的看法：上市石油公司及向其提供貸款的銀行似乎處於破產的危險中。BMI Research大宗商品研究主管戴維斯(John Davies)稱，油價下跌通過幾個渠道給股市造成短期不利影響。他還說，隨著石油出口國國際儲備下降，全球流動性減少，給全球風險資產帶來打擊，波及到股市以外的美國垃圾債市場。

簡而言之，市場陷入了動盪。這種時候，黃金的避險吸引力都會吸引投資者紛紛買入。

多數分析師都上調了他們對金價的預期。貴金屬零售公司Anthem Blanchard預計，金價在今年9月份有可能觸及每盎司1,500美元，之前的預計是每盎司1,300美元。盡管BMI Research稱該公司預計金融市場不會出現更大范圍的下挫，但該機構仍然預計金價會達到每盎司1,300-1,400美元。

Biman Mukherji

東網: 預算案：派糖措施懶人包

－薪俸稅及個人入息稅退稅75%，上限提高至2萬元

－利得稅退稅75%，上限提高至2萬元

－個人免稅額及單親免稅額由12萬元增至13.2萬元，已婚人士免稅額由24萬元增至26.4萬元。

－提高供養父母及祖父母免稅額，60歲或以上由4萬元增至4.6萬元，55至59歲由2萬元增至2.3萬元，入住安老院舍開支扣除上限由8萬元增至9.2萬元

－差餉寬免4季，每戶每季上限為1000元

－領取綜援、生果金、長者生活津貼及傷殘津貼人士可多發1個月津貼

－寬免商業登記費1年，食肆、酒店旅館、旅行社等會獲免牌費1年

－撥款2.4億元加強旅發局宣傳－5億元推「科技券先導計劃」，資助中小企購買資訊科技服務及產品

－再發行100億元與通脹掛鈎債券(iBond)

－首次發行以長者為對象的銀色債券(Silver Bond)，首批為期3年

－延長電費補貼結餘的使用限期2年

－研究將「安老按揭」(逆按揭)計劃擴展至未補地價居屋及已出售公屋

文匯報: 澳元升破72美仙走強

馮　強

金匯錦囊 

澳元：澳元將暫時活動於71.30至73.30美仙之間。

金價：現貨金價將暫處於1,200至1,230美元之間。

文匯報: 鋰電池4月起 禁寄艙

鋰電池已是人類日常生活最重要物品之一，但這種電池一旦過熱或損毀，便容易引致火警甚至爆炸，航空業界對運送 鋰電池一直極為謹慎，不少航空公司更禁止備用鋰電池寄艙。聯合國國際民航組織(ICAO)前日宣佈，由今年4月1日起，禁止在民航客機以貨物形式運送鋰電 池，直至2018年設立鋰電池防火包裝新標準為止。

現時國泰、英航、法航及新航等航企均禁止備用鋰電池寄艙，例如俗稱「尿袋」的流動充電器等，但若電池預先安裝於電子器材內，則仍可當作寄艙行李。

易自燃達600度 恐釀爆炸

ICAO估計除36個成員國外，全球大部分國家均會跟隨禁止運送鋰電池。新措施生效後，乘客及機組人員仍可把鋰電池以手提行李形式帶上機，貨機上的鋰電池則要保持電量在3成或以下。

鋰電池容易因短路自燃，引致接近攝氏600度的火警，幾可熔掉用作製造飛機的鋁。由2006年至今， 全球已有3架貨機在運送鋰電池期間爆炸。波音787客機大量採用鋰電池，2013年1月接連發生兩宗涉及鋰電池的意外，其中全日空一架787在載客期間需 緊急降落，導致同款客機需全球停飛3個多月。

東網: 多隻股仔遭斬倉暴瀉 證監擬檢討

近期多隻細價股爆出大股東押股並遭斬倉，令股價大瀉，引起市場關注有關大股東押股披露是否足夠及對投資者是否公平。證監會主席唐家成表示，考慮檢討有關控股股東押股的披露要求規定。

根據《證券及期貨條例》有關披露權益條文，現時控股股東押股予非銀行機構（非認可借貸人），若超過5%要於3日後公布，但並非即日公布；若抵押予銀行，更可獲豁免而不用公布。

唐家成認為，值得檢討有關規定。至於《上市規則》就規定，如控股股東質押股份，是為擔保發行人的債務，則公司必須在合理切實可行情況下盡快公布。市場人士認為，如控股股東押股只是為個人財務融資，未必需要公布，認為押股披露有檢討空間。

東網: 27年來業績首度見紅 渣打去年蝕184億

收入不足加上油企類貸款需增加巨額撥備，渣打(02888)自1989年來業績首次見紅，去年全年錄得23.6億美元(約184億港元)的股東應佔虧損，令市場大跌眼鏡。集團確認早前不派末期息決定，雖然今年經營環境仍然悲觀，但主席莊貝思承諾今年恢復派息。

不過，莊貝思的派息言論止不住股價跌勢，渣打倫敦股價一度瀉12%至低見42元，其後回穩至45.884元，較港收市低1.866元。

東網: 沙特石油部長發表講話 紐油即挫近4%

沙特阿拉伯石油部長納伊米發表講話指出，石油市場比石油輸出國組織(OPEC)要大得多，當前石油市場的工作是要實現再平衡，相信參與穩定油價者會較分離 者多，由於原油需求仍然強勁，沙特對此並不擔心。他強調，沙特並未向頁岩油宣戰，亦沒有爭取更多市場份額，只是滿足自身客戶需求，對美國能夠出口原油感到 高興，對合作持開放態度。

東網: 人民幣利息

中銀香港(02388)新資金團購優惠6個月期加30點子至4.1厘，3個月期則由3.6厘上調至3.9厘，入閘門檻2萬元人民幣(下同)。

交銀香港一般客戶6個月期亦加30點子至3.75厘。

華僑永亨及大眾香港1個月期均減30點子，分別至4.1及4.2厘，起存金額2萬元。

華爾街日報: 當心中資銀行CoCo債的投資風險

當心，中國也有應急可轉債(contingent convertible bond, 簡稱：CoCo債)。

由於對銀行業（尤其是歐洲銀行業）的信心大幅下降，全球市場上周銀行業CoCo債出現拋售潮。由美國銀行(Bank of America Co., BAC)編制的一個CoCo債指數暴跌至其創立以來的最低水平，令其今年迄今為止的跌幅達到10%。

中資銀行是CoCo債的發行大戶，他們發行的CoCo債也沒能躲過此輪市場拋售。中國銀行股份有限公司(Bank of China Ltd., 3988.HK)的CoCo債收益率上升了近1個百分點。

Are We About To See A Massive Short Squeeze In Silver?

解讀為: 因為白銀三月期權就來到期, 所以白銀價呢幾日會俾人推跌, 大波動可能會發生 !

kingworldnews.com

Despite the large commercial short positions, are we about to see a massive short squeeze in silver?

James Turk:  “This is an option expiry week for gold and silver, Eric. The Comex options go off the board Wednesday, February 24th. Then the over-the-counter options expire later in the week…

The last week of February is a particularly important one for silver. That’s because March is an actively traded month for silver, and all the March silver options will be reaching their maturity over the next few days.

You and I have discussed many times over the years how the price of gold and silver weakens during option expiry. The consistency of this pattern is clear evidence that gold and silver markets are rigged. So it is not surprising that gold and silver prices were both driven lower last night in Asia on thin trading volumes. Someone was painting the tape.

But what was particularly interesting to me was the way that silver was pummeled in the early morning here in London just before the markets opened. At 7:30am London time, spot silver was $15.20, yet 45 minutes later it had been beaten down to as low as $14.90 before stabilizing. What happened? 

It was an attempt to force some panic selling so that traders, who were just coming into their office, would dump their physical silver when they saw it under pressure when they turned on their screens. There was also some forced margin selling.

Nervous Silver Shorts
 
The buyers in that little silver takedown were writers of silver call options. They were in there buying under $15 to cover their option positions even before those options expire later in the week, which is the important point.

There is a lot of nervousness out there by the silver shorts as well as the longs owning the March silver calls. 

The shorts are nervous because of their commitments to deliver physical silver for options that expire in the money. The availability of physical silver remains tight. So they used this morning’s head-fake to scoop up whatever silver they could find.

But interestingly, the longs are also nervous because they wonder if they will receive physical silver if their options expire in the money. They are wondering whether the sellers will force them to take a cash settlement.

Trading In Silver Is The Key
 
The obvious pressure points are $1,200 for gold and $15 on silver, but silver is the more important. Silver at the moment is where the real nervousness can be found. 

The sellers of calls want silver to be under $15 by the end of the week. So they will pull out of their bag of tricks whatever they can do to achieve that target. They may succeed, but what will really matter is the result if they don’t keep silver capped.

A Silver Squeeze
 
Silver has the potential for a short squeeze over the next few days going into the end of the month. If that happens, the potential exists for silver to have one or more daily moves of greater than $1, which is a rare event that we last saw over a year ago.

東網: 黃金ETF大幅流入 金價向1400進發

永豐金融集團研究主管Mark To表示，今年金價的大幅上漲，只是整齣戲的開端；金融市場的混亂將會推動黃金需求，在未來幾個月內，1,300至1,400美元水平的金價很可能出現。

Gold dips 2 percent on strong dollar

以為金銀價回吐, 又可以買平金銀啦, 點知又跌唔落 !

finance.yahoo.com

By Clara Denina

LONDON (Reuters) - Gold fell 2 percent on Monday as the dollar strengthened and investor appetite for risk increased, but the metal remained above $1,200 an ounce after a rally that pushed prices to one-year highs this month.

Concern over financial instability and the repricing of expectations for U.S. interest rate rises, has helped the metal outperform most assets so far this year with a 15 percent gain.

Spot gold, which posted small losses last week on profit-taking after rallying to $1,260.60 on Feb. 11, was down 2 percent at $1,204.30 by 1113 GMT.

"We have seen very strong moves higher, almost non-stop buying for 11 weeks and quite a dramatic increase in ETFs and futures investment," Saxo Bank senior manager Ole Hansen said. 

"But the dollar weakness seems to have run its course and is not providing the support that we saw earlier this month ... in the short term I would favour a move towards $1,168."

The dollar rose 0.7 percent against a basket of leading currencies, supported by strong U.S. data on Friday, and European shares jumped to multi-month highs.

"Gold has had such a strong build in a relatively short period of time that if there is a bit of a change in the surrounding markets, gold will be exposed," Hansen said.

ETF INFLOWS

But investor sentiment remained largely bullish and was evident in fund flows. 

SPDR Gold Trust, the world's top gold exchange-traded fund, on Friday recorded the biggest single-day inflow since August 2011.

The fund's inflows since the beginning of the year have already surpassed the outflows for the whole of 2015. 

Other data showed that speculators increased their bullish bet in COMEX gold futures and options to their highest in nearly four months in the week to Feb. 16.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch said on Friday investors shovelled $3.2 billion into gold, the biggest two-week gold inflow since May 2010.

"Increases in ETF (exchange-traded fund) holdings continue to support gold higher, while we have seen some of this buying momentum offset by reductions in TOCOM positioning and recent selling in China," said MKS Group trader Sam Laughlin, referring to the Tokyo Commodity Exchange.

Top consumer China has been selling gold since its return from a week-long holiday last Monday, a sign Chinese investors do not expect prices to go much higher and cannot be counted on to support the market.

Silver rose 2.1 percent to $15.02 an ounce, while spot platinum climbed 2.2 percent to $922.76 and palladium slipped by 0.1 percent to $497.95.

(Additional reporting by A.Ananthalakshmi in Singapore; Editing by David Goodman)

星島日報: 摩通：匯控業績表現差 予「減持」

摩根大通表示，匯控(00005)去年第四季盈利較市場預期低，主要因收入疲弱，以及撥備較高。經調整收入130億美元，較市場預期少8%，因為歐洲及北 美地區業務疲弱。期內撥備升至16億美元，部份是因為涉及油氣相關貸款。一級資本比率改善至11.9%，派息21美仙，符合市場預期。摩通預期，市場會因應業績，下調對匯控2016/2017預期。評級「減持」，目標價430便士，折合約47.5港元。

太陽報:  大媽買滙控帳蝕5億

「中國大媽」去年十二月積極追入滙控（00005），今年繼續受「大媽」歡迎，一月八日至二月三日期間，連續十九日榮膺港股通十大成交股份之一，可惜「大媽」築起「血肉長城」依然未能撐起股價，粗略統計帳面虧蝕約5億元。

東網: 人民幣利息

中建行亞洲3個月期加10點子至4.75厘，同期全城最高，需申請指定信用卡及為理財客戶，存款金額10萬元人民幣(下同)。

花旗香港6個月期年息則由3厘躍升至4厘，3個月期亦加30點子至4.3厘，最低起存金額5萬元。

華僑永亨1至3個月期均由4.3厘上調至4.4厘。

上海商業銀行逆市減息，6個月期減20點子至4.1厘，入閘門檻10萬元。

Is Any Asset that is Safe?

Martin Amstrong 終於都認為, 持銀幣會安全過金幣, 因為你可以說是用來收藏 ! 說的是歐美, 因為黃金驚有一日會俾政府允公 !

www.armstrongeconomics.com

QUESTION:

Hi Marty, I have been following your blog for several years and attended your “Cycles of War” presentation in Philadelphia. It has been rewarding and very educational. My question, is there any one investment that is a safe haven in the chaos that approaches? I recently sold my company and placed the proceeds into “Certificates of Deposits” at several large FDIC banks laddering over several years. Are these safe or will it all be for naught? Meanwhile, I look forward to utilizing Socrates “traders” software when it comes available.

Thanks,
RZ

ANSWER:

Certificates of deposits are ok for now.  Keep in mind this will change probably in 2017, but by 2018 for sure. The risk is government paper where they can by decree convert short-term to long-term. The USA is probably less likely to do that compared to Europe. But with people like Larry Summers shooting off his mouth, all bets on that are a 50/50 game.

There is no investment that survives. If you look at the Great Depression, absolutely EVERY asset class was hit. Nothing survived intact. This means we will have to stay on top of this more closely than ever before because liquidity is also declining and that means volatility will increase, which is often what hurts people. The vast majority assume whatever trend in motion will stay in motion. They are incapable of seeing the turns.

We still show that equities will probably be the safest place moving forward insofar as they are recognizable and liquid. Cash is still king, but the war on cash itself is disturbing. Silver coins will be useful, perhaps even more so than gold, since they are tracking gold but not old, common date, silver coins. This may replace cash, which they are desperately trying to destroy.

東網: 憂英「脫歐」 鎊匯挫1.6%退守1.41

倫敦市長Boris Johnson表明支持英國「脫歐」，觸發市場憂慮，英鎊兌美元現跌1.6%，報1.4176，創逾一年最大跌幅，價位則瀉至3周最低。

恒生錯價 ?

1盎司鴻運金幣貴到飛起 !

Greek Attempt To Force Use Of Electronic Money Instead Of Physical Cash Fails

www.zerohedge.com

While the "developed world" is only now starting its aggressive push to slowly at first, then very fast ban the use of physical cash as the key gating factor to the global adoption of NIRP (by first eliminating high-denomination bills because they "aid terrorism and spread criminality") one country has long been doing everything in its power to ween its population away from tax-evasive cash as a medium of payment, and into digital transactions: Greece.

The problem, however, is that it has failed.

According to Kathimerini, "Greek businesses are not ready for the expansion of plastic money through the compulsory use of credit and debit cards for everyday transactions."

Unlike in the rest of the world where "the stick" approach will likely to be used, in Greece the government has been more gentle by adopting a "carrot" strategy (for now) when it comes to migrating from cash to digital. The government has told taxpayers that they will have to spend up to a certain amount of their incomes via bank and card transactions in order to qualify for an annual tax-free exemption.

This appears to not be a sufficient incentive however, as a large proportion of stores still don’t have the card terminals, or PoS (Points of Sale), required for card payments, while plastic is accepted by very few doctors, plumbers, electricians, lawyers and others who tend to account for the lion’s share of tax evasion recorded in the country.

Almost as if the local population realizes that what the government is trying to do is to limit at first, then ultimately ban all cash transactions in the twice recently defaulted nation as well. It also realizes that an annual tax-free exemption means still paying taxes; taxes which could be avoided if one only transacted with cash.

For the government this is bad news, as the lack of tracking of every transaction means that the local population will pay far less taxes: a recent study by the Foundation for Economic and Industrial Research (IOBE) showed that increasing the use of cards for everyday transactions could increase state revenues by anything between 700 million and 1.6 billion euros per year, and that the market’s poor preparation means that the tax burden has been passed on to lawful taxpayers. As a reminder, in Greece, the term "lawful taxpayers" is not quite the same as in most other countries.

What is more surprising is that according to data seen by Kathimerini, PoS terminals in Greece amount to just 220,000, and that despite the fact these were effectively forced on enterprises with the imposition of the capital controls, an estimated half of all businesses do not have card terminals.

Almost as if the Greeks would rather maintain capital controls than be forced into a digital currency by their Brussles overlords.
According to Finance Ministry calculations , the number of terminals the market requires for a satisfactory geographical coverage in the basic categories of small enterprises and of the self-employed to 450,000-500,000, which appears impossible for 2016.

As for consumers, the increase in the number of debit cards after the government imposed the capital controls has brought their total to 1.7 million across Greece.
And yet, despite the aggressive push to force everyone out of physical cash and into digital money, the experiment has so far failed. How long until the IMF, Troika, or Quadriga or whatever it is called these days, uses Greece as the Guniea Pig for the next monetary experiment, and "advises" the Syriza government that if it wants the bailout money to flow, it will have to do away with all physical cash within its borders. A successful implementation, first in Greece, would then mean that the global decashification process can continue in other western nations.

東網: 莫家強：裂口頻現暗藏殺機

元大證券(香港)經紀業務部營業副總監莫家強在太陽財經專欄「股市圖強」中表示，16年只是開始了不足2個月，但恆指就已經出現了超過十個「裂口」，平均 每三個交易日就有一個，數量非常驚人。裂口，不論是「上升裂口」或者「下跌裂口」，都是市況不穩定的表現，對於進行Short Call、Short Put，以賺取時間值作為目標的投資者來說，尤其不利。

東網: 蘇子：美匯短期未跌夠

美匯指數觸及此低位後便在日線圖以錘頭利好形態止跌回升，但到上周升至200日平均線阻力(96.97)附近便遇上巨大阻力，並有兩個交易日在此平均線阻 力以下以十字星等待變形態收市，上周五美匯指數仍未能有效突破此阻力後便顯著低收，已反映本周有機會進一步回落。本周早段美匯—旦失守10日平均線 (96.39)，料會重拾弱勢，並會帶動日圓及金價向上作出重大突破。

東網: 三大供應重災區 租金恐冧25%

新一年新盤入伙潮爆發，今年料有至少26個新盤交樓，連同將軍澳緻藍天今年交樓單位計，全年料有逾1.6萬個單位入伙，當中將軍澳料佔逾4,300伙，續 成供應重災區，其次的東涌區亦佔3,758伙，元朗區則料佔2,493伙。業界估計，三大入伙重災區的租盤搶客情況勢加劇，區內二手租金今年有機會暴跌 25%。

A World On The Edge Of Chaos

kingworldnews.com

With a wild start to 2016, today a legend in the business sent King World News a powerful piece about a world on the edge of chaos.


By John Ing, Maison Placements
 
February 20 (King World News) – Gold bullion and gold stocks came back from the dead, attracting new money defying the rout in commodities. Gold held its value better than other assets. That previous haven, the dollar plunged sparking a scramble for safety, amid the demise of bullish market sentiment, the peaking of every market from Shanghai to Nasdaq, Middle East turmoil and concerns over the health of the global financial outlook. Although this long overdue correction was well advertised, the markets now view the glass as half empty, rather than half full…

Fear has replaced optimism. Until recently, the market has ignored red flags for months, including oil sliding for much of last year, China’s slowdown and Japan’s adoption of negative interest rates joining the ongoing currency war. Nothing new here. 

What is new is China’s use of its massive foreign exchange hoard to prop up the renminbi amid the massive selling of US debt by Russia, China and Middle East players resulting in a “cashing out” of the billions of IOUs printed by the Fed. Those dollar-denominated debts once languishing in the vaults are now coming home to roost, causing the US dollar to finally fall. The lack of growth in the US only reaffirms that the “pushing on a string” quantitative easing is not working. Expanding central bank balance sheets to lower rates has become less effective over time. And, of course the prospect of another socialist president or even The Donald was enough to send gold higher. 

The rate hike? It was a non-event, partly because it was the most well-advertised event for much of the past couple years. Nevertheless, few recall that between 2005 and 2006, interest rates went up 17 times, yet gold soared 50 percent. Meantime, central banks continue to buy the yellow metal. China is buying 50 tonnes a month joining Russia and other central banks. Even the gold ETF attracted almost a billion in only a month in contrast to the $2 billion of withdrawals over the last year.

Near term, gold is technically overbought, and a brief pullback would present another attractive buying opportunity for those who missed the boat by listening to Goldman’s economists. Following that, we expect a bull run to $1,300 per ounce and then a target to the old high, yes $2,000 per ounce. Gold will be a good thing to have. 

Politicization of Policy
 
When Mr. Obama took office, the US deficit was $10 billion and with less than a year left in his term, it is now $19 trillion or more than 75 percent of GDP, which does not include growing entitlements and Medicare bills. Debt has grown twice as much as GDP, which is unsustainable. And despite numerous government shutdowns, congressional stalemates and promises, Mr. Obama has brought out another Keynesian $4.2 trillion budget, leaving a fiscal time bomb for his successor.

However, in addition to the growing entitlement burden, the ratcheting up of debt leaves little room to maneuver in a stressed credit environment. And elsewhere? Brazil might miss a debt repayment. Venezuela is bankrupt. Puerto Rico defaulted. Despite the politicization of the budget deficit, reality must set in and bills must be paid, even though the Fed is studying following Japan and Europe into negative interest rate territory. The first rate increase in almost 10 years is an example of the politicization of monetary policy.

Unlike Alexis de Tocqueville’s concern that the biggest danger to US democracy was the tyranny of the majority, today he would have been concerned about the tyranny of the minority. It seems mainstream politics is under attack with the populist uprising a backlash against the one percenters or a Robin Hood solution of taking from the rich to give to the poor.

Although the populists’ solution of Trump and Sanders are different, the popularity of their message is not the message itself but a consequence of the politicization of economic and monetary policy such that they have become so intertwined, that the Trump/Sanders success validated the politicization of government policy. This failure has created unrealistic expectations that inevitably disappoint and thus the thirst for change. Ignoring the majority, politicians have simply created their own monster. Capitalism is under fire and policy uncertainties have created a risk premium.

How Low Can They Go?
 
Worries about growth prompted Japan to introduce a new stage of quantitative easing by adopting negative yields, lowering rates into negative territory. In other words you pay the bank to hold your money. This experimental policy follows Switzerland, Sweden and Denmark and a quarter of government bonds today, trade below zero. Negative interest rates were last seen in the Dirty Thirties. 

However, the impact on commercial banks is considerable, introducing distortions in the financial markets ruining spreads. The implications of the negative cost to holding currencies is widespread and reflects that fiat money has been constantly debased by central banks. Money is no longer money. Purchasing power is gone. On the other hand, corporate borrowers and in particular, the junk players have been paying higher rates such that the spread is the largest since the Lehman Brothers’ collapse of 2008. This is the start of an upside world. That investors are willing to accept negative rates suggests that today they are more concerned over the safety of their money and whom they have left their deposits with.

An example of the central banks’ waning credibility is that running out of options, they are caught up in a competitive currency war, a zero sum game exacerbated by negative rates. We believe that this next stage of quantitative easing reflects the shifting of the enormous surplus of money that was created and the sloshing around suggests that investors are reluctant to invest in long term projects, or even today, buy bonds. And, dividend models are about to be thrown out the window as investors become concerned that stocks are now too expensive, having been declared only too cheap, a year ago. Consequently, investors have become super-cautious seeking that safe haven, gold. 

Central banks’ rock bottom interest rates policies, cannot be relied upon as the ultimate backstop, having singularly failed to resurrect their flagging economies with trillions of stimulus. The market has called Chairwoman’s Yellen’s bluff. Central bankers have lost the markets’ confidence. Quantitative easing allowed the central banks to purchase massive amounts of debt with newly printed money in order to depress interest rates which in turn was to stimulate borrowing and revive the economy. Wrong.

Instead central banks threw more money at the problem, such that their balance sheets became top heavy with debt. Those bloated reserves have crippled the banking system. Banks traditionally make money on the spread however with those assets now in negative territory, these “too big to fail” players have experienced difficulties in an “illiquid negative rate environment”. And, as China unwinds their stockpile of foreign exchange reserves in support of the renminbi, that money is beginning to work itself through the system, with dangerous implications.

Contagion is Back
 
An unintended consequence and not so lucky are the financial institutions that funded the oil and gas boom, in particular the shale players. Too big to fail Deutsche Bank, Credit Suisse and Wells Fargo are trading at a fraction of their peaks over concerns that non-performing losses will swamp their capital. These banks were at the epicenter of the 2008 collapse. The move to negative interest rates will squeeze bank profits and upsets the traditional banking model, removing their safety net. To no surprise the price of insurance went up again in a déjà vu moment of 2008. Wall Street lent billions to junk rated borrowers and now have worthless oil rigs and leases as collateral.

Of course Wall Street offloaded some of those liabilities in newly created structured products to their clients. Wells Fargo has $17 billion of exposure. Bank of America has $21.3 billion exposure. Italian banks are carrying almost 20 percent non-performing loans. For these ailing banks, who is going to bail them out? Last time, it was the central banks but after the Cyprus bank debacle they shifted that responsibility to the depositors in a “bailing in” move. And now the Germans have a “bail-in” plan for government bonds that could impose “haircuts” on holders, imperiling the eurozone itself. Caveat Emptor!

Regulatory Reform
 
Money continues to be debased. Cash itself was targeted by governments closing tax havens in the quest for revenues. Central banks are even getting rid of highly valued denominated currency. Capitalizing on this vacuum, entrepreneurs have introduced alternatives. In reaction to the increasing regulatory burden, technology has revolutionized fund raising. Bitcoin is the latest digital currency. 

Blockchain technology has taken the bitcoin one step further, allowing fund raising, back office payments, and eliminating due diligence all in one click. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) itself issued its first white paper on virtual currencies. In simple terms, the use of blockchain technology is a glorified ledger enabling electronic payments giving banks huge advantages. Central banks have climbed aboard as blockchain transactions can eliminate tax avoidance, money laundering, fraud and terrorist transfers.

In other words, the old school banks are giving way to the cyberbanks. Similarly, technology could help the old stock exchanges. The truth however, is that the ultimate currency is waiting. We believe gold, which is time tested over thousands of years, will outlast the bitcoins and blockchain technology because today’s paper currencies are found wanting. History shows that stores of values are to be highly prized when there is a lack of monetary discipline. Alternatives to the dollar will gain in value. Gold anyone? 

China Rising?
 
In the nineties, many Asian countries pegged their currencies to the dollar. This summer, China dropped the peg to the dollar in order to make the renminbi more independent and market oriented which resulted in a six percent decline. China spent more than $100 billion to support the renminbi and there are talks of capital controls. China dipped into the world largest reserves which was accumulated from years and years of trade surpluses.

While capital controls would slow the outflow, China’s growing ambitions have dictated a “going out policy” to secure needed resources via larger and larger M&A deals such as ChemChina’s $43 billion bid for Switzerland’s Syngenta. With the largest reserves in the world, China is using its financial heft to pursue a “one belt, one road” initiative of building global trade links, assisted by Chinese led financial institutions like the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. 

While China limits renminbi outflows, one of five cross border deals totaled $157 billion. China remains the world’s largest importer of oil and the collapse in oil prices is a windfall and better than a super tax cut. The Chinese are simply capitalizing on the lower prices by stockpiling their strategic reserves and, of course becoming the world’s largest market for gas guzzlers last year. And while many point to the decline in luxury goods, the drop was due more to the ongoing crackdown on corruption and wasteful spending.

Growth in car sales, year over year are still at the highest levels in the world. China’s monthly gold purchases are a step towards making the “redback” a major currency, rivaling the greenback. We believe the authorities move to make the redback independent and break the de facto link to the American financial hegemony was because of concerns over the dollar’s long term value.

US slow growth and huge debt burdens ultimately raises questions about the repayment of that debt. The age old discipline of supply leaves the dollar only one way to go. Vast amounts of dollars are held everywhere. Gold will continue to rise in value as long as the United States keeps drifting towards fiscal instability. Their system is so debt clogged that not even a one percent yield could coax buyers. 

Gold’s new bull market has just begun. As long as America consumes much more that it produces and owes much more than it owns, the avalanche of dollars will keep coming. What damages trust in the dollar, damages the world. Gold is an alternative to the dollar for central banks. We thus believe gold will continue to outperform stock markets this year, as it has for the first part of this year. Gold is that new/old global currency.