2013年2月28日 星期四

美釋非法移民抗削支 被批做騷

文匯報

——明自動減6600億 奧巴馬共和黨續口水戰 

 美國聯邦政府850億美元(約6,594億港元)自動削支機制將於明日啟動,總統奧巴馬前日警告, 削支將嚴重損害美軍應變能力,形容是「不必要的自殘行為」,敦促國會拿出替代方案。移民和海關執法局(ICE)同日宣布,將數百名非法移民由「拘留」轉為 「監視」,以集中資源應付嚴重犯罪,共和黨怒批這是為奧巴馬做的「危險政治騷」。 

 自動削支機制迫在眉睫,但由於過去「財政懸崖」、「債務上限」等危機事前被大肆炒作卻沒真正發生,民眾以至投資者這次都不太關心。政府近兩周接連警告削支會造成的後果,試圖鼓動民意逼共和黨讓步,但似乎不太見效。 

未削支已威脅美軍及軍工 

 奧巴馬前日到弗吉尼亞州紐波特紐斯船廠發表演說,指出削支是「錯誤、愚蠢和不公平」,稱削支威脅已導致海軍取消派遣部分軍艦執勤,多項建造及維修工程亦被迫停止。他批評共和黨反對白宮收緊稅制漏洞增加稅收的提議,是不願共同承擔削赤責任。 

 共和黨籍眾議院議長博納批評奧巴馬將軍人作為「人質」,並怒轟民主黨控制的參議院毫無貢獻,稱「參院的懶蟲們是時候坐言起行」。據悉,共和黨無意縮減削支措施規模,但計劃賦予奧巴馬內閣分配削支配額的權利,企圖將制訂削支細節責任及推行削支的惡名推到白宮身上。 

 據悉部分聯邦政府部門已先行制訂對策,應對削支。參院少數黨領袖麥康奈爾稱,奧巴馬當年有份簽署削支案,現在卻將它當作世界末日,假扮自己無力阻止削支。
 評級機構惠譽昨表示,即使美國自動削支及引致政府停運,也不會導致美國信貸評級下降,但會削弱各方對美國經濟的信心,警告若繼續就預算及削赤內鬥,最終將賠上AAA光環。 

 奧巴馬明日會晤國會兩黨領袖,討論自動削支機制。 

三成人斥 兩黨奧巴馬罪魁 

 兩黨去年底為解決「財政懸崖」,將原定元旦生效的自動削支措施推遲兩個月,以爭取談判時間,但至今未有進展。路透社/Ipsos前日民調顯示,25%受訪者認為共和黨應負責、23%歸咎奧巴馬、5%指責民主黨,30%則認為兩黨和奧巴馬均是罪人。 

 ■綜合外電消息/綜合外電消息/路透社

2013年2月27日 星期三

稱遭詐騙 涉款5,000萬港元 41港人買新西蘭爛尾樓

蘋果日報

【本報訊】41名港人疑受高回報率吸引,前年越洋購買新西蘭「樓花」,總涉款達5,000萬港元。惟近月得悉該樓盤爛尾,發展商將土地轉售並申請公司清盤;為免血本無歸,當中逾10名買家昨午往灣仔警署報案,聲稱懷疑遭詐騙,盼警方跟進。

據其中一名買家林小姐表示,於2011年9月,新西蘭一家地產發展商來港,在報章刊登廣告及在多個酒店開展銷會,由香港一家公司作代理。
其 間代理游說指,位處新西蘭奧克蘭的洋房項目「Albany Heights Villas」,屬中密度三層別墅,臨近市中心及校網,呎價由1,300港元起,每個單位約售200萬港元;買家除可以6%的優惠價購買外,亦可先付一至 兩成首期,待樓宇落成後,買家可轉賣圖利,或作長線收租。

發展商正申請清盤

做小販的林小姐指,因見當地治安及法制良好,加上回報率可達兩成,在無考慮投資風險下,付了40多萬港元作首期;惟最近有新加坡準業主往當地視察,卻發現 該土地並無興建樓宇,並生滿雜草。經了解,原來發展商已在去年6月將土地轉售,公司正申請清盤,香港的代理亦已清盤,有關人士不知所終。

有關準業主擔心會「一毫子無剩」,遂兵分多路求救,有人更向當地警方報案;而本港41名買家,在去年11月開始亦先後向警署報案,到昨午12時許,13名買家亦往灣仔警署報案。據悉,警方將接手調查,並設法尋找相關人士了解事件。

執業大律師陸偉雄指,案中新西蘭發展商已收取了買家首期,卻沒有兌現承諾,甚至將該土地轉售,已構成虛假陳述及詐騙行為;他指投資者進行這種「隔山買牛」有一定風險,建議需額外小心,及跟足有關細節。

Why Gold Is Going To $20,000 & Silver Into The Stratosphere

kingworldnews.com

With gold and silver surging strongly on Bernanke’s Congressional testimony, today acclaimed money manager Stephen Leeb explained to King World News why gold is headed to $20,000 and silver into the stratosphere.  Here is what Leeb had to say:  “There is no question that Bernanke pulled the rug out from under the gold bears today.  Their argument has been that the Fed is starting to turn a little bit more hawkish.  We had some propaganda coming out which indicated the Fed was going to end QE at some point this year.”

Stephen Leeb continues:

“All of the sudden Ben Bernanke is in front of Congress today basically saying, ‘Hey, wait a minute, this (QE) thing is working.  Risks of deflation have gone down dramatically, and we don’t see any major risk of getting out of these bonds.’  Well, give me a break. 

The Fed is going to continue with its easy money policy for as long as the eye can see.  This is important when looking at the recent action in gold....

“90% to 95% of the smash in gold was related to the propaganda coming out of the Fed that they would end QE, and that is complete nonsense.  It’s just not going to happen no matter how much disinformation and propaganda comes out of the Fed.

But Bernanke is also trying to say, ‘We have a plan for getting rid of it (QE).’  Well, I’d love to have a dollar for every politician that’s said they have a plan.  There is no plan.  Who is going to buy $3 trillion worth of US debt?  There is an old saying, ‘You can always get out if you want to.  The question is, what’s the price?’  The price in this case will most likely be 20% interest rates and inflation that goes through the roof.  The Fed can fool some of the investors some of the time, but not all of them all of the time.

I think the gold market is waking up to this.  There is no plan for getting out of this.  There can’t be a plan for getting out of this.  The reality is the Fed is getting deeper and deeper into trouble here.  So the Fed will continue doing what it’s doing, and that’s a recipe for some sort of Armageddon, meaning some sort of point where the Fed ultimately can’t sell their bonds.  At that point we will see massive inflation.  I hate to say it, but that’s where we are headed.

This is when the real bull market in gold will start.  If you look at gold as a percentage of reserves, it has remained at only about 1.5% of reserves since the beginning of the century.  If you go back to the 1970s, gold was about 10% of overall reserves.  This time around, because the conditions are much worse than in the 1970s, it’s possible that gold could reach 20% of reserves. 

Because there is a compounding effect each year from the money printing, this takes gold to levels you don’t even want to talk about.  We are talking about $20,000 gold, and possibly more.  This is why when people look back on this gold correction it will just be a blip on a chart that you will need a magnifying glass to see.”

Leeb had this to say regarding silver: “Right now photovoltaics is only 5% of consumption.  That’s it.  I am looking for silver demand in photovoltaics to grow at about a 35% rate each year from now until the early part of the next decade.  As you compound that rate going forward, silver demand for photovoltaics will end up requiring a tremendous percentage of global silver production in coming years.

The only thing the silver bulls have to worry about is will there come a time when governments say, ‘You can’t buy silver for investment because it is such a critical strategic resource.’  My message to all of the silver bulls is the price of silver is going to be in the stratosphere in coming years as a result of both industrial and investment demand.  Just keep accumulating.”

金銀價反彈中


金價目標1637, 大阻力位在 1713



銀價目標30.6, 大阻力位在 33

2013年2月26日 星期二

CASH GRAB: Inactive bank accounts to be seized

本人說過好多次, 香港銀行搶錢, 收不動戶口手續費至戶口錢用曬, 而在外國的人就無啦啦唔見錢 !

依家澳洲政府用呢個橋搶錢, 會收掉銀行三年不動戶口內的錢 !

如果你在澳洲有銀行戶口而不常用, 快些在5月31日前取消啦 !


www.news.com.au

HOUSEHOLDS face losing up to $109 million from their family savings as the Federal government moves to seize cash from inactive bank accounts.
After legislation was rushed through parliament, the government will from May 31 be able to transfer all money from accounts that have not been used for three years into their own revenues.

This will mean that accounts with anything from $1 upwards that have not had any deposit or withdrawals in the past three years will be transferred to the Australian Securities and Investment Commission.

The law is forecast to raise $109 million this year as inactive accounts for three years or more are raided by Treasury.

The money can be reclaimed from ASIC but the process can take months.

Experts warn this will have a negative impact on people that may have put money away in a special account for their children's education or decided to put an inheritance in a separate account for a rainy day.

The previous legislation allowed for bank accounts to remain inactive for up to 7 years before the money was transferred to ASIC.
Do you have a bank account you haven't used for three years? If so, contact us at stephen.mcmahcon@news.com.au

Australian Bankers Association chief executive Steven Munchenberg said there is no benefit for consumers from the changes.

"It is very hard to see why this needed to be rushed through but there have been suggestions it was done more for the government's own financial circumstances rather than customers needs," he said.

Mr Munchenberg warned that unaware customers face having accounts frozen and could face months of delays trying to reclaim their won money from ASIC.

This cash grab comes as economists warn the government is on track to hand down a $15 billion budget deficit in May as company tax receipts collapse.

Before Christmas, Treasurer Wayne Swan junked the government's previously "rock solid" promise to produce a surplus in 2012-13.

The government had also been committed to surpluses in future financial years, too.

But despite the introduction of some tough cost-cutting measures, the latest research from global bank UBS forecasts the May budget will show a $12 billion black hole in revenues and cost overruns of about $3 billion. The biggest pain is coming from the expected $8 billion fall in taxes from the corporate sector.

Rothschild targets China’s 12th Five-year plan a golden investment opportunity

www.morningwhistle.com

Speaking in a breakfast meeting of British activity with Chinese entrepreneurs, Jacob Rothschild, the England Rothschild Capital Partners President, specifically pointed out that China’s 12th Five Year Plan will bring a golden investment opportunity.

Jacob indicated his optimistic aspect about the BRIC countries, especially China’s prospects, although he admitted clearly difficult challenges ahead. He believes the next stage of development needs for new strategies and approaches. He said he studied with great interest to China’s 12 five-year plan, and very fortunate with Vice Premier Wang Qishan.

The foresight of the file, indicating that the leaders of this country determined to economy-driven transition from export to domestic consumption, and policy-making dedicated to the development of emerging industries, these industries will be a period of ten to become the spine, such as biotechnology , new energy, high-tech equipment, energy saving and environmental protection, clean energy, transport, new materials and next-generation IT industry. The seven industries accounted for 3 percent of China’s GDP, while in 2020 this figure increased to 15 percent, to accomplish this goal is bound to need in the field of Chinese enterprises to expand overseas markets and has achieved global success.

He added that he believes there are mutually beneficial and win-win cooperation space between the global economic integration.

 Here was learned that Corey Group Mr. Zheng Yuewen is active cooperation, as our first fund, we plan to invest in Western companies have an advantage in health care, technology and energy, while these companies also from the Chinese consumer’s net income growth and rising standard of living needs benefit.

Moreover, he also pledged potential investment opportunity in green technology of a number of Western companies in the field of renewable energy, to ensure that profits at the same time also reduce resource requirements can bring a win-win situation.

 By allowing these companies in China to build a production base, reduce costs and open the Chinese market, also offers growth stent to optimize the cooperation between East and West.

In june, the Rothschilds of Europe and the Rockefellers in the U.S., have decided to put their names together to buy other asset managers or their portfolios and develop wealth management services in overseas, including China.

Edmond de Rothschild, member of the Rothschild family disclosed on July 19 its investment figure on A-share market totaled $700 million

 The Rockefeller family and Rockefeller Foundation, and China has a long-term assistance, we will and Rockefeller financial firms more active in the Chinese market.

中國不可以忘記的歷史

www.silverdoctors.com

Vast amounts of Chinese and Indian silver must have been in the COMEX whirlpool before silver trading migrated to Canada after the Silver Purchase Act of 1934 and FDR’s EO 6814 on August 9, 1934 due to a 50% profits tax. Today the Hong Kong Mercantile Exchange has the usual names found at its site—Bache, Warburg, Morgan, HSBC; and Rothschild in the background

Submitted by Charles Savoie, Silver-Investor.com

In “The Double Whammy of Geopolitical Gold Games reposted in February 2013 (from January 31, 2008) by Antal Fekete http://www.24hgold.com/english/news-gold-silver he stated some errors of fact! Marco Polo, guide us on this excursion to China! Bruce Lee, help our reflexes to be as fast as yours! May we not be slap happy like Jackie Chan! Wo Fat, do not mislead us! Antal mentioned China’s silver money system going back to the 16th century, then stated—

CHINA’S EXTERNAL TRADE WAS INSIGNIFICANT, but the volume of silver currency for domestic use must have been enormous. There was an avalanche of silver from abroad raining on China.”

China’s external trade was insignificant? Where did they get the silver from for their silver system? Primarily from mines in Mexico and Peru; probably 85% of it or more. Some also came from the Iwami Ginzan silver mine in Japan which operated for 397 years. He says there was an avalanche of silver from abroad raining on China. Why should other nations send enormous volumes of silver to China? What would their motive be, something for nothing? Resolving this we find Mister Fekete in serious error claiming that “China’s external trade was insignificant.”

At http://afe.easia.columbia.edu/china (visit the page, read the article) we find mention (16th to 19th centuries) of China’s—

“STAGGERINGLY LARGE EXPORT SECTOR”

Export of silks, spices, artistic porcelain, jade carvings, tea, rice and other trade goods was paid for by Europe and Britain in silver. Insignificant and staggeringly large don’t reconcile; one of them is wrong; Fekete is wide of the mark. Why don’t people check for certification before making claims? Before the silver mines of Mexico and Peru opened and large amounts of silver flowed to Spain, England and Europe, China had copper and bronze coins, and its own paper currency debacle.

Fekete rolled his off balance dice again—

“As far as it is known, SILVER NEVER FIGURED IN CHINA’S EXPORTS (except re-exporting foreign-owned refined silver). China is the only country in the world that has consistently run trade surpluses since 1950. WHY SHOULD THE CHINESE EXPORT SILVER, WHEN THEY COULD EXPORT ALMOST ANYTHING ELSE?”

Gee! We already saw that Chinese trade goods were paid for in silver; we’ll see more of this as we progress. Silver was most of what China used to pay for imported goods over a multi-century span, after they had accumulated meaningful stores of silver; their silver system ran from sometime in the year 1571 when it started out on a smaller scale to an official end on November 3, 1935. The New York Times, November 4, 1935, speaking of China going off the silver standard, said—

“Banknotes issued by the government owned Central Bank of China become legal tender—debts payable in silver may be settled in the new legal tender and all holders of silver must surrender it to the Central Bank and accept notes in exchange at face value.”
First China had to accumulate silver in exchange for goods they had to offer, which they did; secondly, they were able to use silver acquired for exports to pay for imported goods.
Here’s some historical data on the silver for opium business the British were leaders of (some Americans like the very dirty fur trader, central banker and real estate magnate John Jacob Astor, and French were involved) —

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opium_Wars

“In 1729, its import was 200 chests, and by 1790 it amounted to over 4,000 chests (256 tons) annually. In 1858, about twenty years after the first opium war, the annual import rose to 70,000 chests (4,480 tons).”

Next we see http://piperbayard.files.wordpress.com/2011/06/opium-chests.jpeg


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It seems incredible that Fekete didn’t mention the British opium “trade” run out of British India, which was a scheme the British hatched to “recover” British silver, and silver paid to China by other nations. Speaking of the early 18th century http://afe.easia.columbia.edu/main

“Western nations are experiencing an outflow of silver bullion to China as a result of the imbalance of trade in China’s favor, and they bring opium into China as a commodity to trade to reverse the flow of silver.”

China banned opium in 1726, but that was some 35 years before the British East India Company, with a charter from the Crown, undertook to initiate mass exportation of opium into China. Opium addiction soon spread to other areas of China as more ports opened to trade with Westerners. Imports of opium rose from 15 tons in 1730 to over 75 tons in 1773 http://yubanet.com/regional/The-Rise-of-the-Opium-Trade which also mentions—

“By 1830-31, the number of chests of opium brought into China increased fourfold to 18,956 chests. In 1836, the figure exceeded 30,000 chests. In financial terms, trade figures made available by both the British and Chinese governments showed that between 1829-1840, a total of 7 million silver dollars entered China, WHILE 56 MILLION SILVER DOLLARS WERE SUCKED OUT BY THE SOARING OPIUM TRADE.

Opium once supported the economies of several nations and that Britain in particular was responsible for the enslavement of millions of Chinese through their addiction to opium. It’s hard to imagine that not one, but two wars were fought to force a sovereign nation to open its ports to accept opium. In one of the more shameful episodes of the British Empire, opium was used to balance their trade deficit with China – regardless of the human toll caused by their imports. The Emperor did not want European goods in exchange for tea, porcelain, silks and spices that the English imported from China. The only form of trade that China would accept was silver; but because Britain operated on the gold standard, they had to buy silver on the open market at great expense. This created a trade imbalance that was heavily weighted toward the Chinese. One of the largest opium traders of the day was Jardine-Matheson, a company still in existence today.”

This huge conglomerate is today a $60 billion + annual enterprise in luxury hotels, supermarkets, real estate, auto parts, financial services and other sectors. The company has an impressive skyscraper in Hong Kong. It’s controlled by various Pilgrims Society dynasties—the Keswicks, Sassoons, Rothschilds and Warburgs of Federal Reserve fame. The Sassoons were originally opium dealers from medieval Persia who linked by marriage to the Rothschilds. It has banking relationships with the old Hong Kong & Shanghai Banking Corporation—now known as HSBC, a top tier global banking powerhouse whose U.S. subsidiary has been listed on the roster of the Silver Users Association! The Jardine emblem, by God, is that of an opium poppy!

According to John Francis Davis in “The Chinese—A General Description of the Empire of China and its Inhabitants” (London, 1857), page 24—

“The rapid growth of the trade in opium, and the CONTINUED DRAIN OF SILVER, have greatly alarmed the government.”

The New York Daily News, October 15, 1858 made reference to the “Parliamentary Blue Book” which claimed that British export-import trade with just the two cities of Canton and Shanghai, for the years 1844 through 1856, amounted to more than 437,700,000 pounds sterling, a truly fantastic sum on the part of certain antecedents of founders of The Pilgrims Society of Great Britain, who are the paper money cartel! British opium exports into China peaked in 1880 with 105,580 chests! An opium chest weighed 150 pounds according to the aggressively bigoted http://www.victorianweb.org/history/empire/opiumwars None of these figures are as verifiable as the silver Mr. XYZ investor has in his personal vault; but then, only he can verify it and that’s as it should be. The point is, however, there was AN ENORMOUS DELETION OF SILVER FROM CHINA due to the opium trade. Chinese called opium the “heavenly demon.”

With typical tea and crumpets British arrogance, the terms of the Treaty of Tientsin after the second opium war included China allowing foreign missionaries in the country for purposes of “converting the heathen Chinese;” more likely, peddling more dope!

The Chinese eventually took large scale action against the “traders;” this led to the “gunboat diplomacy” of the Opium Wars (1839-1842 and 1856-1860) under which the British, who remain as of 2013 of the persuasion that their destiny is to rule the world through the United Nations organization, got control of Hong Kong.
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From the University of Wisconsin Press http://homepages.uwp.edu/boute001/secondpage.html we note—

“The main catalyst for this downfall of the economy was THE LOSS OF SILVER TO BRITAIN. In 1839, Lin sent a memorial to the Emperor that explained the amount of taels spent on opium, an estimated 100 million annually. The Qing government functioned on annual revenue of approximately 40 million taels; this demonstrates the extreme amounts of silver leaving China. The Qing treasury took an enormous hit from the opium trade. In 1793, it contained roughly 70 million taels of silver. By the year 1820, the treasury was reduced to a mere 10 million taels of silver. This large export of Chinese silver and depletion of the Qing reserves ballooned the exchange rate. GREAT AMOUNTS OF SILVER FLOODED OUT OF THE EMPIRE TO PAY FOR THE FOREIGN DRUG.”

Apart from wanting the world to be poor so as to be in control of the globe, the power crazed British wanted the silver back so as to have hard currency to pay troops in wartime, and Britain—not Germany— is easily history’s leading warmonger. In “The Opium Trade,” which appeared in Merchants Magazine & Commercial Review, New York, August 1850 (pages 147-159) in particular we see in reference to China—

“…a heavy drain of silver—the VAST QUANTITY OF SILVER THAT LEFT THE TERRITORY to pay for opium.”

According to John Francis Davis in “The Chinese—A General Description of the Empire of China and its Inhabitants” (London, 1857), page 24—

“The rapid growth of the trade in opium, and the continued drain of silver, have greatly alarmed the government.”

It’s well established that British “merchants” forced Chinese into opium addiction at gunpoint—

The Bombay Telegraph & Courier for May 17, 1852 remarked—
“We sell them opium, whereby sooner or later they destroy themselves. As an article of commerce opium stands out without a parallel. From the skilful management and cultivation of about 100,000 acres of land, the East India Company produces an article which, sold at a profit of several hundred per cent, yields to them net revenue annually, of nearly three millions sterling. We do not here include the Malwa opium, seventh of the whole revenue of the country, raised from an extent of more than a million of square miles. From the transport of this drug by a few vessels named opium clippers, a few mercantile houses are also realizing magnificent profits, while the Chinese themselves, the grand consumers of the drug, part with five or six millions pounds sterling per annum. The most astounding fact of the opium trade needs yet to be specified, that Christian sensibilities have not yet been adequately roused in relation to its iniquities and horrors.

That a professedly Christian government should, by its sole authority and on its sole responsibility, produce a drug which is not only contraband, but essentially detrimental to the best interests of humanity; that it should annually receive into its treasury crores of rupees, which, if they cannot, save by a too licentious figure, be termed the price of blood, yet are demonstrably the price of the physical waste, the social wretchedness and moral destruction of the Chinese; and yet that no sustained remonstrances from the press, secular or spiritual, nor from society, should issue forth against, the unrighteous system, is surely an astonishing fact in the history of our Christian ethics. This fact can, however, be easily explained. There is a prestige about this great trade which serves to hide its intrinsic repulsiveness. On the principle whereby the slayer of an individual is execrated as a murderer, and the slayer of ten thousand is treated as a hero and half deified, we can understand how a trade, which, if carried on by one or two of the baser sort, would be denounced as smuggling and piracy, is divested of its illegal and immoral characteristics by the patronage which emblazons it, the numbers connected with it, the immense capital embarked in its prosecution, the glittering private fortunes realized by it, and more than all, the immense addition to government finances. We find it very difficult to entertain the idea that a traffic whose mainspring is in government regulations, whose affairs are conducted by government officials, whose sales are in the flush of day, at public auctions in a city of palaces, whose dealers are princely merchants; which employs as its transports splendid clippers, whose commanders are educated men, and, still more, WHOSE RETURN FREIGHTS ARE SOLID, WEIGHTY SILVER; and, to crown the whole, whose operations from beginning to end are sanctioned by the explicit enactments of the Imperial Parliament, can best we dare venture to say it may be demonstrated to be commercially suicidal, politically inexpedient, nationally dangerous, judicially contrary to the law of nations, ethically unjust, and, in relation to that God who desires mercy and not sacrifice, wholly iniquitous and abominable.”

Let’s evaluate some possible statistics based on the figures referenced in the Bombay Telegraph—

5 or 6 million pounds Sterling = 60 to 72 million ounces x Sterling conversion factor of .925 = 55.5 to 66.6 million ounces per year x how many years? Over a period of just under 16 and one half years (until the opium trade allegedly eased off), at an average silver outflow of 61 million ounces per annum, gives the figure of over 1 billion ounces! Certainly the rate of silver lost from China because of opium would not have been constant, but then the opium trade was ongoing for over two generations as of 1852, and it positively extended on a large scale past 1870. The year 1881 is referenced here http://www.sycee-on-line.com/Opium_tax.htm in regard to opium taxes payable in silver and 20 years later we still find—

4

The Boxer Protocol of September 1901 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boxer_Protocol resulted from China again being invaded by Westerners who imposed reparations on them—
“450 million taels of silver were to be paid as indemnity over a course of 39 years to the eight nations involved. Under the exchange rates at the time, 450 million taels was equal to US$ 335 million gold dollars or £67 million, approximately equal to US$6.653 billion today. The Chinese paid the indemnity in gold on a rising scale with a 4% interest charge until the debt was amortized on December 31, 1940.”

Part of the reparations from the second opium war that ended in 1860 http://www.chinaknowledge.de/History was forfeiture of 16 million silver bars (“taels.”) A measure of weight, the tael varied. The Canton tael was 37.5 grams (1.20565oz troy) whereas the Shanghai tael was 33.9 grams (1.08991oz). The thrifty British would not have missed the trick of holding China to heavier silver taels. By way of flashback in this chronology, the site mentioned the 1830’s—

“The export of tea, silk and chinaware was not able to cover the costs for opium imports: the Chinese trade balance tended negative, silver money left the country. The economical impact of the Opium Wars and the penetration of the Western powers in the Chinese trade system was mainly seen in currency problems. The huge amount of opium import could not be balanced by an equal amount of exports of Chinese goods. According to the treaties, China had to pay tens of millions of silver Dollars as war damage reparations to the Western powers. China’s trade balance was critically endangered by these facts, and moreover by an inflation of the silver currency against the gold standard that was adopted by the Western countries.”

I sincerely hope we’ve answered Fekete’s question, “Why should the Chinese export silver, when they could export almost anything else?” Drug addicts will do anything to get a fix; and silver was the only payment the British accepted! However, there’s another reason totally apart from opium as to why China should export silver since the Maoist takeover; we’ll cover this also, with documentation.

Sucking silver out of China, pushing opium over there!
Demonetize silver in America, Rothschild’s a billionaire!
Let all the world’s little people sink into despair!
We’re the world’s bankers, you’re in our crosshair!

This film from 1934 is of interest, as is the fact of a Rothschild being on the governing board of the silver trading New York Commodity Exchange (New York Times, July 5, 1933, page 27). No question vast amounts of Chinese and Indian silver must have been in the COMEX whirlpool before silver trading migrated to Canada after the Silver Purchase Act of 1934 and FDR’s EO 6814 on August 9, 1934 due to a 50% profits tax. Today the Hong Kong Mercantile Exchange has the usual names found at its site—Bache, Warburg, Morgan, HSBC; and Rothschild in the background.

http://www.rothschild.com/china-japan-korea/ the Rothschilds established a presence in China in 1838, and again in 1953 less than 4 years after the Red takeover. See the image of the silver bar cast with Chinese lettering, at this page! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franco Franco Bernabe, chairman of Telecom Italia, is a director of Petro China (552,810 employees) and is vice chairman of Rothschild Europe.

We won’t cover details of the Latin Monetary Union except to note that as of 1870, only Britain wasn’t on a silver standard. But, with British subversion ever attacking silver, in 1871-1872 a series of European nations demonetized silver. One excuse was that the Papal States debased silver coins and exchanged them elsewhere in the continent for standard silver coins. To amend Fekete’s statement about silver being rained down on China; more correctly, China was a silver sponge that Britain and Europe first exported silver to; then recaptured much of it by turning tens of millions of Chinese into opium addicts at gunpoint; then China was hit by recurring waves of silver demonetization, 1871-1878; it’s highly likely that after the Spanish American War of 1896 when we took over administration of the Philippine Islands, that Philippine silver started being dumped on world markets, especially since Charles Conant, a highly placed man, advised the Philippines to “go cold” on its circulating silver money http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/01.11/silverstealers.html ; and before that silver already took another hit from New York banks who boycotted Morgan dollars in 1878; then in 1920, the British debased their own silver coins from .925 to .500, and dumped a flood of silver onto the Shanghai market, seriously shrinking prices. In “Silver At The Crossroads,” Mining Congress Journal, February 1947, pages 85-86 we see—

“The effect of this unfortunate move was to REDUCE THE WORLD PRICE OF SILVER BY AT LEAST 50 PERCENT within a period of about a year. THE SHANGHAI SILVER MARKET WAS SWAMPED WITH BRITISH SILVER. Auction sales of silver followed which had a far-reaching effect upon the economy of China, then on a silver standard. THE MOMENTUM OF THE PRICE DECLINE THAT ENSUED CARRIED THE WORLD PRICE TO AN ALL TIME LOW OF 24.5 CENTS PER OUNCE.”

The all time low wasn’t 25 cents as Fekete says in 1932; it was 24.5 cents and occurred in February 1931. Silver may have even pushed lower than this! See Commercial & Financial Chronicle, New York, February 14, 1931, page 1136; the British Valentine’s Day gift to silver was a nightmare from hell. Nevada Senator Pittman also referenced the all time low silver price as 24.5 cents at a speech in Denver at the Metals Mining Convention (Mining Congress Journal, February 1937, start page 38). The next huge hit to silver, and larger still, was when Britain demonetized Indian silver in 1926 and commenced dumping melted silver rupees on world markets, especially China, by 1928. The New York Evening Sun, August 6, 1926 reported that world silver markets plunged into panic on news on England’s intent to dump 400 million ounces onto world markets! By early 1930 China was suffering terribly due to the British attack against silver. The China Weekly Review (Shanghai) January 11, 1930, page 200 reported—

“The entire business machinery of China is in chaos.”

Chinese export trade was devastated by the drop in the silver price; then, pretending to come to silver’s rescue, in summer 1934 Congress passed the Silver Purchase Act of June 19, 1934 (it did help Western states mining interests) which had the larger outcome of sucking so much silver out of China in alarming quantities, that the Commercial & Financial Chronicle, April 13, 1935, page 2453, said the loss “disrupted China’s entire monetary system.” The C & FC, May 18, 1935, page 3307 stated—

“The Chinese Ministry of Finance said on May 12 from Shanghai, that the silver purchasing policy of the United States is causing a severe drain on China’s silver reserves and a sharp contraction of the nation’s currency and credit.”

In the Commercial & Financial Chronicle, March 23, 1940, we note on page 1859, in testimony of Secretary of the Treasury Henry Morgenthau Jr. before the Senate Committee on Banking and Currency on March 19, 1940 —
“As you know, the Treasury has made special arrangements with various foreign countries relating to the purchase of silver. The first and most important of such arrangements was made with China. In June 1936 and from time to time thereafter the Treasury entered into arrangements with China pursuant to which it acquired approximately 565,855,000 ounces of Chinese silver.”

Over a 46 month period—all of it AFTER China hemorrhaged so much silver that it was shoved off its silver standard—the United States Treasury continued TO VORTEX ANOTHER HALF BILLION PLUS OUNCES of the element with 61 neutrons out of China. This was also referenced in China Weekly Review, January 15, 1938, page 183, “Huge Sales of Silver Under Kung-Morgenthau Agreement.” Before this period, the Treasury during 1935 absorbed 494MOZ from foreign sources, and we are fair to assume this was predominantly Chinese silver (Mining Congress Journal, December 1943, page 22). In the first 36 months after the Silver Purchase Act of 1934, the Treasury took in from all sources a per annum average of 426,892,333 fine ounces (Mining Congress Journal, November 1937, page 45). That’s an average of 179,316,333 ounces more than world production of 247.576MOZ in 1936. Another point— according to Frank Fetter in “China And the Flow of Silver” (Geographical Review, New York, January 1936) page 40—

“Shanghai stocks of silver reached an all time high of 449,840,000 ounces in June 1934.”
The Shanghai was China’s largest silver market; the peak figure for its hoards of silver was LESS THAN 80% of the 19,409 tons of silver (565.855MOZ) referenced by Morgenthau that he sucked from China in just ONE particular episode he became specific about! Frank Fetter of the anti-silver money American Economic Association (secretary-treasurer 1901-1906, president 1912) and held professorships at such Pilgrims Society universities as Cornell, Stanford and Princeton, received a Guggenheim fellowship (grant) in 1937-1938 and was an “economic advisor” to the Central Bank of Ecuador in 1940; with the Lend-Lease Administration in 1943-1944 then with the State Department till 1946. Fetter was also a member of the American Commission of Financial Advisors, a banker front through which he had direct dealings with China in 1929, possibly touring its silver vaults. If we could know roughly how much silver— (in Indian crores, Chinese taels and sycee—bullion bars shaped like a boat— or any other measurement) was drained out of China by Hong Kong & Shanghai bank from the close of the second Opium War to the end of 1935, it would be very revealing. Fetter was a member of the elite Cosmos Club in D.C., facilitating discreet meetings of politicians with Wall Streeters. See Fetter in Who’s Who, 1947, page 751.
H.H. Kung was an agent of the Anglo-American bankers who became Finance Minister of China, 1933-1944. In 1935 he declared private ownership of silver officially illegal (so as to be able to export more to the U.S. Treasury) and he started issuing the “pinyin” paper note; the word means “legal tender.” The British-American financiers, who formally organized themselves into “The Pilgrims Society” in 1902-1903 for world monetary cartelization, literally played silver ping-pong ball with China for generations! There was nothing wrong with Britain and Europe originally paying for Chinese exports with silver. Certainly however the opium addiction stratagem for recovering silver from China, with probably over 100 million Chinese over the years suffering the torments of the damned and passing away early because of it, was as immoral as “business” gets. For long periods, the Anglo-American financiers sucked immense volumes of silver out of China; then suddenly dumped titanic amounts, whipsawing their silver system; then finally, sucking silver out of China again with the Silver Purchase Act of 1934 and still later, by other means, which we shall touch on with documentation, unlike professor (?) Fekete. I don’t get the validity of scholarship without documentation! Neither should you! They destabilized silver in China by wicked intent!

There was a “popularity champ” I knew in high school who insisted that Greenland was a Canadian province; that it was larger than Brazil; and that George Wallace was governor of Georgia. I countered that Denmark owned Greenland; that it equals less than a third Brazil’s territory and that Wallace was governor of Alabama. The onlookers sided with the popular fellow and dismissed my counter claims due to mere personality issues. He was a football player and I was not! And did I ever get looks of condemnation! One of his pals even showed me a world map depicting Greenland as larger than Brazil (many maps show this distortion!) I sincerely hope, friends, that documentation matters more to you than the cult of metals personalities. Greenland became quasi-independent in 1979 but when I had the dispute in 1971 I was 100% correct. I hope being correct in this presentation doesn’t get me exiled like the Dalai Lama due to irrational popularity issues.

The World Monetary Conference in London in 1933 allowed the British to continue dumping silver out of India over a four year span into 1937 at an average rate 35 million ounces per annum (New York Times, Sunday, July 23, 1933, page 16, “Text of Silver Treaty Concluded at London.”) The vast majority of that undoubtedly arrived in United States Treasury vaults due to the Silver Purchase Act and would not necessarily have been trans-shipped from China. The back and forth actions in silver against China used by Britain and later greatly assisted by their “Pilgrim Partners,” the soulless American financiers and their subalterns in government, had the desired effect of forcing China and the entire Far East, including India, off silver money systems. The Anglo-Americans dragged the world to full fiat! The Mining Congress Journal, February 1957, page 114 attributed the second World War and the fall of China to Communism to the British/American refusal to restore silver as a monetary medium in world trade. The object of the Silver Purchase Act of 1934, from these conspirators viewpoint, was to concentrate into Treasury vaults the single largest stockpile of silver in history, which they intended to use for global price management objectives; this worked magnificently until just after the start of the new millennium.

Fekete tells us “the Chinese central bank had to take all the silver offered to it…this situation lasted right up to 1949 when the Communists took over. Several Western historians blame the Communist victory on the unprecedented silver inflation that Western governments inflicted on the Chinese economy by their insane silver dumping policy before World War II.”

How does this claim on Fekete’s part square with the facts? Could an alligator snapping turtle wake him up? His presentation contained not one documented reference (zero); the reader is just expected to take his word for everything he says, because he wraps himself in the aura of an alleged authority with titles like doctor and professor and is cited by sites and suit and tie groups who organize metals conferences; yet, certain of his key points are demonstrably incorrect as documented in the public record. Please REFER TO HIS DISCLAIMER at the end of his opinion piece! It’s damn unlikely the Chinese “had to take all the silver offered” when the United States Treasury was sucking in at least hundreds of millions of ounces of silver annually, and I do mean stoutly beyond then current mining output.
This reminds me of another “expert” who on January 27, 2010, at http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/ told readers, apparently with no research background, that “silver was never made illegal to own.” On January 27, 2010, I contacted SilverSeek with a correction to this well intending fellow who is by now widely read on the silver subject. His incorrect statement was made against a background of expertise in an entirely unrelated field (fallacy of erroneous appeal to authority). The error was promptly corrected, but could I get mention as supplying the correction? Of course not, because many arbitrarily excluded me from the metals community’s panel of experts, notwithstanding the fact that I’ve presented far more silver historical research—all documented and cross-referenced— than anyone else see http://www.silver-investor.com/archives/index.html and http://silverstealers.net/tss.html and www.nosilvernationalization.org The fact that prominent metals longs haven’t mentioned The Pilgrims Society as being the central threat to precious metals investments is simply because of absence of awareness. Please don’t fall for the “ad populum” fallacy; that is since someone isn’t mentioned by this or that commentator, site or organization, that therefore, findings presented are unimportant. The error of fact at Silver Seek was at any rate promptly corrected after the site operators notified the gentleman of his mistake. Now to return to Fekete’s errors; he butted heads several years ago with Jason Hommel and came out poorly as Jason said http://silverstockreport.com/2009/free-market-hindered.html
“Antal is living in a fantasy land.”
To which I may ask by way of addenda—
“In an Antal Fekete deal, do you get to ha ha ha?”
To be certain, we have no way of knowing exactly how much silver flowed into China for export purchases by Colonial powers from circa 1560-1571 to the start of the opium trade; and we cannot be certain how much silver that vile business removed from China; but we do know the amount removed was colossal and may have reduced China’s silver holdings by over half; we also know that substantially more silver was raked into the United States Treasury via the 1934 Silver Purchase Act, than the amount of silver the British conspirators dumped out of India. One of today’s titans of world banking, HSBC, was built on the opium business. We also can’t be certain how much silver dumped by European nations beginning at the start of the 1870’s ended up in old Cathay, the archaic Western term for China. In the 1920 event, Britain dumped 70MOZ silver that came from debasing its coins from .925 to .500 under Sir Austen Chamberlain, Pilgrims Society (The Times, London, January 15, 1931, page 18). It was in any case far overreached by Treasury absorption of silver off the world market less than a generation later. Fekete is correct that significant amounts of silver have been smelted in China and returned as bullion to Western sources; this transpired well past the year he mentioned (1950.) But before any Chinese refineries engaged in this, he asks—

“Why should the Chinese export silver, when they could export almost anything else?”

Was this question asked to achieve misdirection, or just out of lack of perception of the big picture? Why would China export silver after the Red takeover in 1949? One of the most likely reasons would be to acquire military technology. Western bankers panting obsession to suppress silver was and remains so great that they’d export weapons technology to have silver to feed to industrial users to hold prices low so as to suggest innate value to the paper banknotes they inject, like viruses, into the economy. Fekete admits that—

“China’s primitive economy under Mao was in no position to put that silver to industrial use.”

Didn’t he answer his own question as to why China would export silver? This was 1950 to roughly at least the late 1960’s, that the best export the West would accept from China was silver itself; for purposes of Western assistance to industrialize and acquire military tech! Another wave of silver exports from China, as in leasing, seems to have commenced in 1999. As silver leasing has never been a publicly accountable activity, other episodes are likely to have transpired. Silver exports from China to the West since 1950 aren’t the easiest thing to document, but they took place and varied from the Red takeover to just after Y2K.

For documentation, in The Economist (London), September 16, 1961, page 1097, we find—

“China is expected to sell about 40 million ounces of silver in western markets this year. These sales have delayed considerably the expected exhaustion of “free” silver held by the United States Treasury. Under an Act of 1946, the United States Treasury can sell non-monetized silver at a price of not less than 90.5 cents a troy ounce, but only to American users. For many years, production of silver has fallen far short of demand, but the gap has been filled by demonetizing coinage and, to a certain extent, by sales of Russian silver. It is one of the impenetrable mysteries of the East how much more silver China has to sell, in what form it is held and where it originated. China produces little or no silver, but as in most Eastern countries large quantities of silver would formerly have been distributed among its population in one form or another. The cause of the urgent sales at a time when many are forecasting a significant rise in the price of silver is obviously China’s pressing need for currency with which to pay for its increased imports, particularly of grain, from the West.”
For cross-referencing, in the Wall Street Journal, November 29, 1961, page 3, under a subtitle paragraph, “Red China Could Affect Market,” we read—

“One mining executive noted that a big factor in the market could be Red China, which is estimated to have sold at least 40 million ounces of silver in world markets in the first 10 months of this year. A spokesman for Handy & Harman, silver fabricators, asserted—”There will be no shortage of silver.”

In 1965 President Johnson formed the President’s Special Committee to Study East-West Trade, naming among others to this panel, Charles Englehard of Englehard Industries and the Silver Users Association (Who’s Who, 1971, page 667). No surprise; in 1960 Englehard was national co-chairman of Businessmen for Kennedy/Johnson. He was chairman of Englehard Industries as of 1953 and as of 1971 a director of Rand Mines (Johannesburg, South Africa); International Silver Company (sterling tableware sets); Hudson Bay Mining & Smelting; American South African Investment Company (gold); National Newark & Essex Banking; Prudential Insurance (listed a few years ago in the Silver Users Association); and others. He was a commissioner of the Port of New York Authority and was a trustee or director of Committee for Economic Development; U.S. Committee for Refugees; American Museum of Immigration; John F. Kennedy Memorial Library; American Heritage Foundation; Eleanor Roosevelt Memorial Foundation; Atlantic Council; Foreign Policy Association. His office was at 113 Astor Street in Newark, New Jersey. Englehard was literally bristling with connections overseas, especially with China, and showed extraordinary interest in foreign policy. Even his office location suggested interest in China, silver and paper money! John Jacob Astor was part of the opium trade; he was the main domestic power in the second United States Bank (1816-1836) and he was a silver manipulator. The Delanos, Roosevelts and others were up to their necks in opium! Englehard, who was the inspiration for the “Goldfinger” character in the James Bond film, died in 1971. His wife Jane was born in Qingdao, China; their daughter Sally has been a major Democrat campaign funder (more silver users influence!) Englehard perennially issued bearish statements about silver to damage longs.

Englehard was a director of Eurofund, set up by Pilgrims Society member James Russell Forgan of 45 Wall Street, who had strong ties to the silver using Du Ponts (Pilgrims Society). Fay, author of an attack on the Hunt silver play (see below) also said that Charles Englehard imparted a “buccaneering” spirit to Englehard Corporation! With his involvement in the East-West concept, Englehard must have been thinking about raids on Fu Manchu’s last silver! I’m glad I have some Englehard silver, rather than his sorry hide, in storage!

Again as to Chinese silver exports the Wall Street Journal, May 22, 1967, page 4 had this to say—

“Typical of the relative unconcern shown by most large scale users in the U.S. was International Silver Company, Meriden, Connecticut, which said it doesn’t expect to ever see a time when there’s insufficient silver to meet our needs. An official noted that there are “staggering amounts of silver above ground in the hands of hoarders and others and this will become available when the price moves up.” The halting of sales of government owned silver overseas is expected to work a serious hardship on purchasers in Britain and Japan, and may possibly draw Red China into the world silver market as a major supplier. Some observers claim soaring prices may draw Red China—until a few years ago, a leading contributor to the world market—back into the picture. CHINA IN RECENT YEARS HAS APPEARED TO IGNORE CONSIDERATIONS OF PRICE, offering metal for sale in the West as a means of securing foreign exchange or as a political tool to influence neutral countries.”

The Wall Street Journal can be trusted to not mention crucial facts, such as China trading silver for U.S. technology; that’s why China would “ignore considerations of price” and why they’d export silver versus other things, Western bankers wanted it for price suppression! At http://isbndb.com/d/book/selling_technology_to_china.html prepared for members of the National Council for U.S./China Trade, we see technological transfer to China. No, I can’t show you direct references to China trading silver for technology. Sensitive info is tough to come by! But it seems inevitable to have happened often and on a large scale. Chairing the NCUSCT as of 1975 was a Pilgrims Society member with many globalist connections— William A. Hewitt, who married into the John Deere agricultural machinery fortune, who was also a member of the visiting committee of Harvard University’s East Asian Studies department. He was a director of Continental Illinois Bank, which had connections to the Chicago Board of Trade; the bank was mentioned by Stephen Fay (1982) in “Beyond Greed—The Hunt Family’s Bold Attempt to Corner the Silver Market.” Hewitt was also a director of the U.S./U.S.S.R. Trade & Economic Council (Who’s Who, 1979, page 1483)—

In 1957 the Pugwash Conferences were established by Cyrus Eaton Sr., a Rockefeller family associate, named after his home at Pugwash, Nova Scotia. At http://www.pugwash.org/about.htm they say they’re interested in disarmament issues; but the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace is known as a warmongering entity. I believe Pugwash has been used as a vehicle for transferring military technology to China in exchange for hard silver. A look at the 2002 participants at the Pugwash Conference is an eyebrow raiser; including mainland Chinese http://www.pugwash.org/reports/pic The Rockefeller Brothers Fund and the Carnegie Corporation are key sponsors of the Pugwash Conferences. In other words—silver price suppressors! Also supporting Pugwash events is the Cyrus Eaton Foundation, in the Rockefeller Building at Cleveland, Ohio.

There is currently a Pakistani retired General in Pugwash management; Pakistan is allied with China http://www.pugwash.org/organization/council.htm

The Trilateral Commission, a Pilgrims Society subsidiary/front organization, has been heavily interested in U.S./China trade see http://www.trilateral.org/download/doc/east_west_trade_crossroads.pdfdated 1982 with anti-monetary silver activist Robert V. Roosa (Harriman/Rockefeller interests) of 59 Wall Street (Pilgrims Society). It’s likely the deindustrialization of America, with the huge manufacturing shift to China, was handled by the Trilaterals, under David Rockefeller’s supervision.

The East-West Center (founded in 1960) at the University of Hawaii recently saw appointments to its board by former Secretary of State Clinton http://www.eastwestcenter.org/news-center/ who is a close flunky of major gold suppressor David Rockefeller. Silver is a major reason why our elites are so active in maintaining organizations linking us to China; and the Governor of the People’s Bank of China, Zhou Xiaochuan, is a “former” member of Rockefeller’s Trilateral Commission (noted member as of 2003). I admit disappointment reading Ted Butler, in a letter to Xiaochuan, http://www.investmentrarities.com/ted_butler_comentary05-24-04.shtml telling him (IF he read the letter) —

“It has been reported that your bank has sold or leased more than 300 million ounces of silver, since 1999. I know that your Bank’s silver sales were not done with your full knowledge or approval.”

Disappointment, because the realists among us grasped very early on that there is a monumental “fix” in against silver, with governments around the world and all their regulatory agencies, legislatures and courts! The head of the bank was unaware of its silver leasing? No chance, Ted. And no way at any nanosecond of its existence since 1975 was the CFTC or anyone in it ever going to allow silver longs an even set of rules! Gensler is as bizarre as the Irish demon in “Rawhead Rex” (1986).

In his May 24, 2004 article on China and the commercial Comex silver shorts http://www.investmentrarities.com/ted_butler Butler said most of silver to satisfy deficit since 1999 comes from China; in other posts he mentioned the AIG involvement http://www.silverseek.com/commentary/manipulation-timeline-7831
Other major globalist groups linking China with the West include the United States/China Business Council https://www.uschina.org/board_of_directors.html showing Maurice Greenberg, long associated with American International Group (AIG) which Ted Butler used to allege to be involved with removing silver from China and the National Committee on U.S./China Relations http://www.ncuscr.org/ which also shows Greenberg as a director. These groups cited are highly influential in international business, totally connected to the huge silver suppressing banks, and form a powerful community of interest. The NCUSCR has as officials Henry Kissinger (Pilgrims Society); Madeleine Albright (Pilgrims Society); Tom Kean (Pilgrims Society) of the 911 Commission; and retired Admiral Joseph Prueher (very likely a Pilgrims member). According to http://rense.com/general9/mod.htm

Admiral Prueher “has been helping the Chinese climb all over U.S. defence secrets for years.”

It may widen your eyes to discover that Albert Helmig, who was president of the Hong Kong Mercantile Exchange 2009-2012 was on the NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) board, 1991-2000 and chaired no less than seven committees; COMEX merged with it in 1994; Helmig was a director (1994-1997) of International Precious Metals Institute, which is heavily interlocked with the infamous Silver Users Association; and Helmig was a member of the National Committee for U.S. China Relations, 1993-2000. Now we see definite linkage of silver suppressors with Chinese trade with the U.S. —

Technology is why the Chinese “would export silver, when they could export almost anything else.”

Remember also that Butler named the Central Bank of the Philippines as being a significant source of silver leasing some years ago (January 10, 2002) http://www.butlerresearch.com/silver-leasing.html

The Asia Society was founded in 1956 by John D. Rockefeller 3rd http://asiasociety.org/about/mission-history and certainly includes mainland China in its focus. Today it features two Rockefellers, a Speyer and Harold McGraw III as trustees http://asiasociety.org/about/people/trustees The Rockefellers have been at the heart of precious metals suppression since at least the 1870’s. In “How To Trade With Communists—Interview With David Rockefeller,” U.S. News & World Report, August 13, 1973, showing him posing with an interested Chou-En-Lai, Red Chinese Premier, with Rockefeller commenting we note—
“China is developing a broadly diversified industrial structure. It’s quite impressive.”
8

(New York Times, August 10, 1973). Rockefellers and Rothschilds, working together, but who is more powerful? Take your pick! The Independent, London, April 16, 2004, said industry insiders count Rothschild wealth “not in billions but trillions;” the 1973 expose by William Hoffman, “David—Report on a Rockefeller” said “The power he wields crosses all borders, can make or destroy governments, start and stop wars, profoundly influence everyone’s life.” What these sources haven’t said is that the R & R clans aren’t alone in the world power structure. The other dynastic families are represented with them in The Pilgrims Society of London and New York; and combined they may be worth more than both of these.

We see Western globalization organizers deeply involved with the industrialization of China (and the former Soviet Union) and believe they’re the reason China has indeed dumped lots of silver onto world markets after Mao Tse-tung seized power in 1949. Antal Fekete’s idea that China hasn’t had silver exports since 1950 is out of touch with facts. Where he stated—

“Nobody knows how much silver the Chinese Communists found in bank vaults and in the safe deposit boxes of Chinese merchants who fled the country, when they took over the mainland. Nobody knows how much silver is still hidden in the mattresses of Chinese peasants. The amounts must be enormous. The best estimate is that most of that silver has never been consumed and still exists in monetary form.”

He was sort of correct; we’d have to be psychic to be aware how much silver fled China ahead of Mao’s troops nor how much they captured probably for bargaining purposes with the West for technology transfer. Silver hidden in mattresses? No; that’s where you’d hide paper currency. Past small amounts, silver becomes too uncomfortable to sleep on. Whose best estimate is Fekete talking about? That also would demand someone, even Chinese authorities, to be clairvoyant. Antal said gold was demonetized “100 years after silver, in 1873.” Whoops! The rest of us thought that Nixon closed the gold window at 1500 Pennsylvania Avenue Northwest in August 1971! Two years off may not sound like much, but see how far you get with Civil War historians if you say Fort Sumter was attacked on April 12, 1863! If we allow cult status figures in our community, they must still be accountable to facts! That applies no matter who references them http://www.gata.org/node/12211 Finally Fekete commented—

“This crisis has been in the making for over a century, involving the so-called demonetization of both monetary metals. The move was inspired and led by the United States.”

No, the crisis dates way back before the last century, and the United States neither inspired nor led the moves against monetary metals—the British get that credit, and the Americans, though militarily stronger, are junior partners financially. Will this correction to Fekete be posted by all the sites that linked his article? Absolutely not; ask them why! Fekete says after the dollar and paper currencies fail, China will run the world. Not a bad thesis; however, I believe the Anglo-Americans are conspiring to draw China and Russia into head on conflict over Middle East petro and other resources including the entire Caspian Sea region, after which the New World Order of the Anglo-Americans could again leap forward. Maneuvring nations to fight each other has been a hallmark of international finance since the Rothschilds perfected it centuries past; but don’t kid yourself, they aren’t the only major private financial power and are in league with the others via The Pilgrims Society!

I present you here with 50+ references to back up my case, not including links to any of my original work nor to those of one brief similar issue to this; Fekete supplied no references. What kind of learned professor is he? Here’s one I won’t include on the scoreboard but it’s of interest http://www.silverinstitute.org/site/supply-demand/silver-production/ in 2011 China was the world’s third largest silver producer at 103.9 million ounces. Are they exporting most silver mined on their territory anymore? Not a chance! Any miners sending concentrate or dore to China for smelting into three niner could abruptly find their metal has been seized if wartime returns. Meantime some business is as usual, from June 21, 2012, we find “Rothschilds and Rockefellers team up, target rich Chinese at http://www.morningwhistle.com/html/2012

Is China actually the “big silver short?” I dearly doubt it; more likely, it’s The Pilgrims Society and the banking entities it operates. How nice for our megabankers if blame could be shifted elsewhere! And as with the flow of silver to China over a multi-century span, the camarilla of Anglo American power plans to recoup gold and silver that has shifted to China and Russia in recent years. I worry much less about Brazil, Russia, India and China (“BRIC” countries) than our own leadership who, with the British, remain the main threat to our metals ownership, to our sovereign individual liberties as expressed in the Bill of Rights, and are the world’s leading warmongers. They have to warmonger; for you see, this is intimately connected to synthetic money creation. But with the Internet’s many uncensored sites, risk to the Anglo American bankers is revving up! They marched all over silver for centuries like General Sherman marching through Georgia; now the General is ready to march all over them!

Banxter metal manipulator, what the hell are you?
Always prowling for someone to lay waste to,
More of a nasty demon, with each turn of the screw,
Beware! This time you ain’t gonna breeze through!
“While it is recognized that silver has had its day, there is a certain reluctance to celebrate the last rites.”—The Economist, London, October 13, 1962, page 145
To close, here’s a tragically comical quotation from Newsweek, June 25, 2007, page 35—

“Foreigners prize dollars—especially $100 bills—as a store of value.”
Recommended reading on China and Silver—

“Silver Users And Opium” http://www.silver-investor.com/charlessavoie/cs_mar04.htm

“China’s Empty Silver Vault” http://www.silver-investor.com/charlessavoie/cs_july04.htm

“Silver Tour of China 1930” http://www.silver-investor.com/charlessavoie/cs_nov07_silvertourofchina

“Silver Tour of China 1931” http://www.silver-investor.com/charlessavoie/cs_dec07

2013年2月25日 星期一

For silver, being cheap is a good thing

www.marketwatch.com

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Silver’s free fall may be coming to an end. 

After a nearly 9% dive in silver prices this month, investors should be able to breathe a sigh of relief as growth in industrial and investment demand gains pace, and calls of “oversold” conditions and “bargain” prices for the precious metal intensify. 

“Silver is grossly oversold at current levels, more so than any time in the past five years,” said James Carrillo, senior portfolio adviser for precious-metals investment firm Swiss America Trading Corp. 

Silver futures prices have lost $2.65 an ounce, or 8.5%, this month, after closing at $28.70 Thursday on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Year to date, they’ve lost over 5%. That compares with gold’s month-to-date loss of around 5% and a nearly 6% decline for the year. 

“Fundamentally, silver should be rising,” as physical demand remains strong, said Carrillo. “However, the technical side of the market is dictating direction currently.”

Before Thursday’s 0.3% gain, silver prices had fallen for five sessions in a row—dropping nearly 8% during that losing streak and breaking a key support level by settling below $30 on Feb. 15. Prices closed Wednesday at their lowest since Aug. 20. The iShares Silver Trust , which holds silver bullion, is down nearly 6% this year. 

The absence of China last week due to the Lunar New Year celebrations “set the ball rolling and left the silver price at the mercy of the technical picture,” said Julian Phillips, a South Africa-based contributor to SilverForecaster.com. “I would expect a snapback just as surprising as the fall.”

Good signs 

Analysts have been pointing out silver’s growing popularity as an investment asset, but many are starting to tout its prospects for use in industrial applications again, as sentiment over global economies improves. Read: Silver gains favor as an investment asset.
Jeffrey Wright, managing director at Global Hunter Securities (GHS), said he likes silver more than gold this year because of silver’s “industrial utility” and “true expansion” in industrial uses. 

“The slide in silver could be coming to a close relative to gold because demand and usage fundamentals are expanding regardless of investment demand,” he said. “Demand in silver for industrial uses is driven by industrial activity in the U.S. and China.”
Last week, HSBC said it expects silver prices to rise to an average of $33 an ounce this year. It also predicted a significant recovery in 2013 industrial demand for silver based on forecasts for growing industrial production in some key silver-consuming economies. Read The Tell blog: HSBC polishes silver outlook, sees demand rise in 2013, 2014.
Of those key consumers, China is a standout when it comes to investment as well as industrial demand. 

In a December 2012 report, the Silver Institute said China’s retail investment demand for silver is forecast to grow “robustly” in the short to medium term as more of the nation’s population gains access to physical silver. Read the Jan. 25 Commodities Corner: If China likes silver, maybe we should too.
 
“The Chinese have to hedge themselves against the continuous debasement” of their U.S. dollar reserves and “the opposite of the U.S. dollar is gold and silver,” said Gijsbert Groenewegen, a managing partner at Silver Arrow Capital Management.

Despite that, silver prices have suffered along with gold since the start of the year — and even more so this month, as is usually the case for the white metal, whose smaller trading market makes it much more volatile than gold. 

The “massive shorting in the futures market is warping supply and demand and at some point, the shorting will fail and silver will have a spectacular rise,” said Paul Mladjenovic, author of Precious Metals Investing for Dummies. “Whether this happens in a few months or a few years, that remains to be seen.” 

Meanwhile, the lower silver prices go, “the more it will be a bargain going forward unless you can tell me that the debasement of the currencies or the threat of inflation will be no problem in the future,” Groenewegen said. 

And economic signs are good. 

China’s economy grew by 7.9% in the fourth quarter of last year, compared with a year earlier and manufacturing activity was strong in January. Read: China’s economy grows more than expected.Also see: China’s manufacturing improves, surveys show.
 
China’s economic and manufacturing growth, combined with the country’s automotive demand will “help silver in the medium term,” said Wright of GHS.

Price levels 

That said, silver’s not necessarily headed for a significant rally right now.

Technical signals point to silver “basing solidly” in the $26 to $28 range, said Mladjenovic. “Physical demand is very strong right now” so going forward, it is likely to “zigzag upward from here.” 

Wright’s worst-case scenario for 2013 silver prices is $25 an ounce. He expects prices to average $30 this year. 

Prices are “more likely to trade higher after rush-to-exits selling is over and fluctuate between $30-$35 for most of the year,” Wright said.

Silver “may or may not fall in the short term, but its long-term trajectory is definitely bullish,” said Mladjenovic. 

Prices have climbed from around $5 in 2003 to near $30 an ounce so far, he said. “The big moves upward are yet to come.”

@MktwSaefong

「強迫金」可揀人幣產品

蘋果日報

銀聯信託將於3月4日推出人民幣債券強積金,最多70%資產投資於點心債,由景順管理,收費為1.195%。銀聯信託行政總裁劉嘉時表示,正研究推出其他低收費基金。此外,她又稱,半自由行後銀聯信託錄得淨流入,並會繼續積極吸客,將早前推出的基金收費優惠延長至今年底。

她又表示,積金局現正檢討精簡申請及轉換基金程序,料行政費用開支有望減少,預計強積金收費將有下調趨勢。

日核污染 美藍鰭吞拿含輻射

蘋果日報

日本311大地震和核災距今近兩年,但核污染災害仍未消弭。美國最新研究報告顯示,40%在福島核電廠捕獲的深海魚仍含有高劑量的放射性銫,連遠至加州海 岸附近捕獲的藍鰭吞拿魚(bluefin tuna)也被銫污染,反映核電廠至今仍有核洩漏。

反映福島仍有核洩漏

不少老饕嗜吃藍鰭吞拿魚,但別以為在太平洋對岸加州出產的藍鰭吞拿魚就一定安全。史丹福大學霍普金斯海洋研究站發表研究,發現即使事隔兩年,現時在加州捕獲的藍鰭吞拿魚體內,仍含有來自日本核災的銫。
專家強調,這些銫含量屬於安全水平,沒必要刻意避吃。但要留意的是,在福島核電廠附近捕獲、主要棲息在日本海域的深海魚中,多達40%至今仍含高劑量的放射性銫,反映核電廠仍有輕微核洩漏。日政府仍禁售福島沿岸魚穫。
美國《赫芬頓郵報》

地產泡沫爆 江蘇湖北現「鬼城」

買樓一定要選旺區易租出 !


蘋果日報

內地面臨房地產泡沫破滅,繼鄂爾多斯、貴陽和營口等城市,「鬼城」現象蔓延到江蘇常州、湖北十堰及河南鶴壁等地。常州買家六成都是外省炒家,新盤夜晚的亮 燈率只有兩三成,資金鏈隨時斷裂。

新區亮燈率不足三成

江蘇常州十年前打造新城,新區有10多個大樓盤,總建築面積超過500萬平方米。但商住項目均供大於求,外地買家佔六成,本地打工者卻買不起房,多個新盤 夜晚的亮燈率只有兩至三成。而湖北山城十堰自2006年起開發8,000多萬平方米山地,商品房價約每平方米6,000元(人民幣.下同),當地人月薪平 均只2,000元;現時房產量需未來12年消化,新區晚間亮燈率不足三成,95%以上的地產企業依靠高利貸生存。不少三四線城市,如鶴壁、唐山、揚州也有 「睡城」風險。

北京《中國經營報》

簽約前擔心受騙 雍澄軒買家報警

蘋果日報

【本報訊】長實分拆雍澄軒酒店房風波越鬧越大,數名買家於簽定正式買賣合約前夕報警求助,指長實未有清楚交代買家所需承擔的風險,要求延遲交易期,「諗住 信李嘉誠,咁有錢唔會呃人!如果一早知責任喺自己到,一定唔會買!」長實介紹的律師也要求買家簽署免責聲明才肯協助處理交易。據悉有買家為求趁簽約前盡快甩身,以平手甚至微蝕趕出貨。
記者:譚靜雯 程俊華 陳雪玲

長實上周一拆售雍澄軒酒店,兩天內售出360個連租約房間,大部份簽訂臨時買賣合約的買家,最快今、明兩天簽署正式買賣合約。不過,有數名原定明天簽約的 買家,昨到葵涌警署報案求助。其中一名不願具名的買家稱,本月18日接獲地產代理通知,指長實將分拆出售雍澄軒酒店項目,兩房售價只需約400萬元,更向 她說:「唔使畀BSD(買家印花稅),轉售又唔使交稅,租畀自己住,租畀其他人住都得。」

律師行要求簽免責聲明

她與兩名友人於兩日後,各自買入一個約660呎單位,分別繳付20萬元定金,並簽署臨時買賣合約。但過去數天政府高官不斷「警告」買家要小心風險,她們開 始擔心墮入買樓陷阱,於是翻閱買賣文件,「原來長實有份買家注意事項,簽約前冇畀我哋睇,簽完先夾埋啲廣告塞埋嚟。」

該份買家注意事項列明,雍澄軒只可作短期住宿,不可作私人住宅用途。而雍澄軒每名買家必須與發展商簽署一份條款苛刻的酒店營運合同,賦予酒店營運人極大權力,甚至室內裝修亦要得到酒店營運人批准;相反業主如要更換酒店營運人,條款列明除非是營運人犯錯,否則業主要取得75%業權人同意才可更換營運人,比現時一般法團換管理公司的50%門檻更高。

三名買家如夢初醒,「我哋覺得有問題,長實冇交代清楚,到底我哋買咗可以點?依家乜都唔清楚。」她們曾向相熟律師行查詢及做樓契,但均被拒絕,「律師話有風險、有問題,唔會幫你哋做,嗰單位唔可以自己搵客、唔可以租畀人。」因無律師願做樓契,長實就介紹一 間律師行給她們,但律師要求買家簽署免責聲明,表示清楚知道買入的物業可能違反地契,以及有可能在2018年時不獲續酒店牌。

「諗住李嘉誠唔會呃人」

信李嘉誠,咁有錢唔會呃人!如果一早知道責任喺自己到,一定唔會買!」她們質疑交易時間太短,又批評即使已付定金,長實也拒絕讓她們睇樓,「要畀晒所有錢先可以睇!」她們今日會去特首辦求助。

警方表示,昨午4時接獲兩名分別51歲鄧姓女子及52歲岳姓女子,就葵涌區一建築物銷售事宜到葵涌警署報案,警方了解後列雜項事件處理,並建議報案人向相關機構求助。長實回覆指,目前雍澄軒交易一切進展順利,暫未收到買家有特別查詢,如買家有疑問可主動與長實聯絡。

雍澄軒於上周五起安排買家分批簽定買賣合約,並付一成樓價,今明兩天是簽約高峯期,但據悉有不少仍未簽定買賣合約的買家,已希望趁簽約前盡快甩身,個別買家 更焗輸錢離場。消息指,一中層單位上周五已簽定買賣合約兼付大定,首日開賣當天以350萬元購入,昨以350萬元摩出,並由業主向新買家代付新雙倍印花稅、律師費及佣金,料蝕逾20萬元。因原業主已簽約兼付約35萬元定金,若選擇撻定損失更慘重,寧願蝕賣。

另一個661呎低層四室單位,買家上周以303.5萬元購入,現以303萬元放售,未計及佣金及律師費賬面已蝕5,000元。

免責聲明摘要

•買家清楚物業之發展商可能違反地契訂明的「酒店」用途,不排除有違規情況,引致有收回物業的可能

•買家清楚物業現只可作旅館用途,受旅館牌照管制,並非住宅用途,有可能不容許買方作長期自住用途

•買家清楚知道物業現有牌照在2018年到期,若屆時不獲續牌,物業將不能再入住,政府更有權充公物業

•買家清楚知道物業用途存在爭論,在法律上未必被視作住宅用途,因此買方應繳付的印花稅或額外印花稅之金額亦有可能變動

2013年2月24日 星期日

Gold And The Potential Dollar Endgame Part 3: Backwardation And Gold

www.zerohedge.com

Authored by Joe Yasinski and Dan Flynn of Gold Bullion International,

In part one of our series we discussed stock to flow dynamics and their impact on the gold price. To briefly refresh, the stock to flow ratio is simply what percentage of the total stock (all the gold ever mined) is available for sale and this ratio is what determines gold’s price. This is the only relevant ratio when determining gold’s supply.

Most analysts myopically stare at mining and scrap supply, yet these are a mere afterthought compared to the existing, and readily saleable gold already spread throughout humanity. The greater the “flow” the greater gold’s availability for purchase and ostensibly, the lower the price and vice versa. In part two of our series we discussed how “paper gold” meaning ETF’s, futures and various derivatives simulate flow where none actually exists. It is our contention that the very existence of this paper flow, rather than metal flow, gives the false impression that there is much more metal available for sale than there actually is. This by definition makes the stock to flow ratio appear to be much lower (more gold available for sale) than actually is and therefore suppresses the price. In the final segment of this series we want to explore an important signal that could identify the demise of paper gold and/or signal a loss of confidence in the $US Dollar and cause an abrupt increase in the stock to flow ratio and the physical gold price.

Before we delve into why backwardation in gold has some very unique and stark implications, let’s first take a moment to understand exactly what backwardation is. While we are at it, we’ll define backwardations mirror twin, contango. Let’s start with contango, since it seems to be the natural state of most commodities not in extremely short supply. The easiest way to visualize contango is to visualize a standard upward sloping yield curve where yield rises as maturity extends. Now visualize the same upward sloping graph but this time representing the price of any particular commodity for delivery out in time. There is first the “spot” price which represents the price paid for any commodity immediately. The farther out you want delivery of your commodity while locking in the price, the higher the cost to do so. Typically, this increase in costs represents a variety of factors of varying influence such as storage costs, time value of money (opportunity cost) etc.

The mirror image of contango is the real subject of this article, and this is called backwardation. Backwardation is the condition where the spot price is higher than the forward price. Backwardation often exists in perishable commodities, right before the harvest. This happens because even though demand is constant throughout the year for a commodity like wheat, the harvest only happens once a year. If you demand delivery right before the harvest, it will be more expensive than taking delivery one month later, after all the grain silos are full. Backwardation is usually a fleeting phenomenon, occurring only when a particular commodity is in short supply and there is great demand for immediate delivery, not in the future.

As discussed in parts 1 and 2 of this series, gold is a unique commodity in that it is not consumed. Gold is certainly not in short supply. Essentially every ounce mined since the dawn of man is scattered around civilization in governmental and private hands. Gold isn’t consumed, it’s hoarded. Estimates of world gold supplies are north of 170,000 tons. So what would backwardation mean in the gold market? If the gold market ever entered backwardation it would offer a seemingly risk free profit opportunity for an arbitrageur. One so inclined would simply sell their gold in the spot market, as it would demand the highest price, and then simultaneously buy a futures contract at a lower price for delivery at a future date. Logically, in an efficient and functioning market enough people would “sell spot gold” and “buy future gold” that the spot price would go down, future prices would go up and the backwardation would disappear. That’s how markets are supposed to work, they take advantage of risk free profits and they disappear. So if and when we see gold in backwardation, it should be considered something like a fire alarm for the system. Something serious is happening.

Investors would be rejecting what should be a “risk free” profit opportunity. We would like to suggest two (not mutually exclusive) causes: 1) the threat of counterparty failure and/or 2) loss of confidence in the $US Dollar. 

The first implication of gold in backwardation is straightforward and easy to understand. The market is pricing in significant counterparty risk of failure to deliver gold in the future. The paper gold market is highly leveraged and functions as long as participants have confidence in the ability of counterparties to deliver on their contractual obligations. It is interesting to note that the gold market has experienced brief periods of backwardation dating back to the mid-1990s. It is easy to identify the factors of market stress that caused those incidents of gold backwardation in the first place. Several academics as wells as gold analysts and commentators have pointed to these events. Of the several periods of backwardation in the gold market, two of the most interesting and significant followed the September, 1999 Central Bank “Washington Agreement” on Gold and more recently during the dark days of the 2008 financial crisis. In both instances we believe the primary force causing gold backwardation was near catastrophic collapse in counterparty viability. 

The Washington Agreement (European Central Bank , 1999) was announced on September 26, 1999 by 15 European Central Banks. As summarized by the World Gold Council, “… they stated that gold would remain an important element of global monetary reserves, and agreed to limit their collective sales to 2,000 tonnes over the following five years, or around 400 tonnes a year. They also announced that their lending and use of derivatives would not increase over the same five-year period. The signatory banks later stated that the total amount of their gold they had out on lease in September 1999 was 2,119.32 tonnes. (World Gold Council, 2013). There is strong anecdotal evidence (VtC, 2012) that for the decade prior or longer, Central Banks had been the primary suppliers of gold and therefore served as a backstop to the rapidly expanding paper gold market. Based on the market reaction immediately following the WAG, the evidence is even more compelling. Given that the signatories of the WAG controlled approximately 45% of global gold reserves, it’s not surprising that in announcing a formal reduction of supply/flow into the market, the price of gold to exploded higher. Real supply was constrained impacting the STF ratio. Further, leveraged paper gold participants scrambled as they realized the previous implied Central Bank backing was going away. Counterparty Risk became real and gold went into backwardation. A large holder of paper gold had to question whether or not his counterparty (bullion bank) would really be able to deliver without official support. What would have previously offered a “risk free” arbitrage opportunity was now a rapidly unwinding collapse. There is wide speculation and some documentation that the panic was not contained until the US (who did not sign the WAG) and the UK stepped forward to supply the market with the needed physical gold to meet the run:

“In front of 3 witnesses, Bank of England Governor Eddie George spoke to Nicholas J. Morrell (CEO of Lonmin Plc) after the Washington Agreement gold price explosion in Sept/Oct 1999: George said "We looked into the abyss if the gold price rose further. A further rise would have taken down one or several trading houses, which might have taken down all the rest in their wake. Therefore at any price, at any cost, the central banks had to quell the gold price, manage it. It was very difficult to get the gold price under control but we have now succeeded. The US Fed was very active in getting the gold price down. So was the U.K." (GATA, 2003)

Now fast forward to the dark days of the 2008 financial crisis. After the September 15, 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers, a daisy chain of bank defaults seemed inevitable. As paper gold is only as good as the bullion bank selling it, it’s no surprise that again the gold market went into backwardation. This time, however, the price of (paper) gold was not rising. It was falling – and falling fast. During October and November of 2008, the price of gold fell by 20%. Is it possible that this falling gold price was signaling something deeper than potential bank failure? (FOFOA, 2013) We think it is certainly possible, and believe the second implication for gold backwardation is a collapse in confidence in the $US Dollar itself. As pointed out in an April 2011 interview with legendary gold, currency, and commodity investor Jim Sinclair, the Lehman collapse changed the game forever and may have set the stage for the final act in US Dollar hegemony:

“Before the failure of Lehman Brothers, OTC derivatives losses would have almost netted out to zero. You can consider derivatives like a string in a circle with various knots representing all the derivatives transactions. When Lehman went broke, the string broke. When Lehman couldn’t meet its obligations on derivatives, they could no longer be netted out to zero. That’s why the banks went down, and that’s why you had the government bailouts and quantitative easing.” (Sinclair, 2011)

Given the nature of today’s gold market with paper dominating physical flow, it makes sense to us that backwardation driven by a failing $US Dollar could initially coincide with a rapidly falling price of gold. Although this statement may seem counterintuitive, it is important to remember what we discussed in part 2 of this series. The paper gold market dwarfs the physical gold market in size, perhaps 15 or 20 to 1. Today, there is no meaningful separation in the price of physical gold and paper gold. Because paper gold supplies the marginal flow in the gold market, it sets the price. And consider for a moment Exter’s Pyramid:


If true that Lehman was the tipping point that put the global financial system on the brink, a rational response on the part of a paper gold holder (a derivative/financial contract) is not to wait and hope for an allocation or delivery of physical. Instead, the response is to sell immediately and move lower on the inverted pyramid. From central banks to individual savers, we see this happening every day. As the price of paper gold (and physical as there was no Comex/LBMA collapse) fell, real estate, corporate and muni bonds, and stocks fell. Even if the endgame is a dollar collapse, we would expect to first see a rally in US Treasuries and demand for cash, which we did. Further, towards the inverted apex of the pyramid there is ample anecdotal evidence that premiums on physical gold had begun to widen and in some local markets there was very tight supply – so perhaps we were witnessing what many physical gold advocates have been suggesting would ultimately occur. We believe that there were some interesting differences between the gold backwardation of 1999 and 2008. 

Academics such as Professor Antal Fekete made a call for the imminent demise of the international monetary system. (Fekete, 2008) and based on his studies of the gold basis believed that gold was entering permanent backwardation. So what would extended or permanent backwardation imply? According to Prof Antal Fekete, “gold going into permanent backwardation means that gold is no longer for sale at any price, whether it is quoted in dollars, yens, euros, or Swiss francs. The situation is exactly the same as is has been for years: gold is not for sale at any price quoted in Zimbabwe currency, however high the quote is. To put it differently, all offers to sell gold are being withdrawn, whether it concerns newly mined gold, scrap gold, bullion or coined gold.” 

Dollars would be bidding for gold, but gold simply wouldn’t be accepting dollar bids. This would imply a gold price of zero or infinity, take your pick. Since physical gold would no longer be convertible into dollars.

But as we know, 2009 brought a massive effort on the part of Central Banks and Governments the world over in order to restore confidence in the system. Only through this massive intervention were the markets able to steady themselves. Although damaged, things on the surface seemed to recover and Fekete’s and others calls for $US Dollar collapse seemed premature at best. It seemed that backwardation had subsided.

Today, we encounter investors and speculators that believe many of the issues facing the markets in 2008 have been resolved. To the extent that they have a position in gold, it tends to be a trade with paper gold. Some believe that they will be able to look at various metrics measuring the level of stress in the gold market or even backwardation and “know” when it is time to move to physical. Whether it is evaluating swaps, gold leases, or various versions of calculating the gold basis – they all have their crystal balls. One way of monitoring this is what’s called the GOFO (Gold Forward Offer Rate.) The GOFO rate is defined by the London Bullion Metal Association (LBMA) as… “Gold Forward Offered Rate - these are rates at which contributors are prepared to lend gold on a swap against US Dollars.”

In layman’s terms, the GOFO is the rate someone will loan you dollars on gold collateral. The GOFO rate will be lower than the rate of an uncollaterized loan and should always be positive, meaning costs more to borrow US Dollars than it does gold. If this rate were to ever go negative it would mean that gold is more precious than dollars.

Essentially gold would be removing its bid for dollars. For physical gold owners searching for clues to tightness and demand in the physical market, they would be wise to keep a sharp eye on these metrics. It is our belief that this is happening, right now. Money is moving down Exter’s pyramid and while the final denouement may be days, weeks, months or years off, we are certain it would be preferable to be years early as opposed to a day late. 

What do you view as a risk-free asset? The US Dollar? If the next global financial fire is coming, how confident are you that your alarm is working?