Market Update for Gold

買實金實銀唔同買股票, 因為實金實銀有好多種類, 普通的金銀條或年年都出同一款的金銀幣少咗收藏價值, 所以可以同股票比, 幾時買都無乜所謂, 因為佢地價格跟隨金銀價上落 !

所以如果想買來跟金銀價格炒上落, 就要買條或普製投資幣 !

但有收藏價值的金銀幣就不同啦, 因為是限量, 而賣完就唔可以用平價再買到, 想買就會貴好多, 而年份愈舊或發行量愈少和圖案愈受歡迎, 就愈值錢 !

www.armstrongeconomics.com

Gold has been backing off with the prospect of rising interest rates, but a weekly closing below 1225 will signal that the high is possibly in place. However, a weekly closing below 1205 will signal that a serious decline is likely.

Technically, we can see critical points at 12434.47 and 1202.13 and a closing below 1202 will signal serious trouble for gold. Gold need to close above 1265 today to keep it alive near-term. Closing below that is neutral and a close below 1230 is bearish just from a tech perspective. A close below 1225 will warn correction ahead.

To answer all the questions coming in how the gold promoters are burning people at the stake, they cheer every rally. They pitch each time this is real but lack any sense of where gold fits within the global scheme of market movement. Everything has its time and place. Gold will breakout, but it requires the collapse in public confidence. We are just not there yet.

Nothing has taken place to negate the prospect of new lows. Markets typically have to move to extremes in both sides to trap people. That is the nature of markets – ALL MARKETS. It is human nature we are talking about. My dispute with gold promoters is they use the same nonsense stock brokers did during the Great Depression – just buy and hold, it will eventually make new highs. In the case of the Dow, it took 25 years of 1954 to exceed the 1929 high. In rel terms, it was 1966 adjusted for inflation.

Gold has not broken-out in real terms and that may not arrive until 2023. Gold broke-out through the 1980 high in 2008 looking at dollars and 2006 in Swiss francs for example. So monitoring any instrument in a basket of currencies is critical.

Back in the 1980s we ran full pages ads in Barrons’ warning gold would collapse. Then we saw a dollar rally in motion and I even appeared on FNN (now CNBC) to deliver a forecast that the British pound would fall to PAR.

Then in 1985 at the start of this current Private Wave, we took the bank page of the Economist Magazine for 3 weeks in July to announce that the Economic Confidence Model was turning and the age of deflation would end.
Everything has its time and place. If you do not monitor the world, you are not going to see when that time is coming due.

No markets should ever become some dogma. This is about understanding how the world works, not about propaganda in how you want it to work.

Opinion has now place in forecasting. It just doesn’t.