世上實金和紙金的比例, 一個人為吹出來的驚嚇埸面 !
kingworldnews.com
Earlier today King World News published the extraordinary chart sent exclusively to KWN by Egon von Greyerz. In part II of his interview, Greyerz, who is founder and managing partner at Matterhorn Asset Management, discusses the incredible chart, and gives readers a shocking price for gold which is based on that ‘cubed’ chart.
Here is what Greyerz had this to say in Part II, along with his comments about the fascinating chart: “I discussed the real over-the-counter derivatives earlier, which stand at $1.1 quadrillion, and this is worldwide. Every time there is a problem in a bank it seems to be derivatives related, such as what happened with JP Morgan which recently lost $5.6 billion, and UBS which lost $2.3 billion.”
Egon von Greyerz continues:
“They
have young people, many times in their 20s, coming in and having
derivatives positions of tens of billions or even one hundred+ billion
dollars, and these young people have no idea what they are doing. The
individual from UBS, who is now defending himself, said, ‘I just came
in to run these positions. I had no idea about this market.’ He is
only 27 years old.
“Every time we look at these positions
closely and value them, which is when there is a problem, the banks
realize the positions are not worth anywhere close to what they
believed they were. The real, underlying problem is that even
management at the banks don’t understand these derivatives. They don’t
know how to value them, so they have no understanding of the true value
of the positions.
Many
times they are virtually impossible to understand, therefore the
traders can value them at whatever they want. Of course they are
unregulated and they are not traded on any exchange, and most all of
this is held off-balance-sheet. Meaning they are not included on the
banks balance sheet.
What
the banks do is net down the positions to a very small total because
they assume that counterparties will pay. Well, we know when something
happens in the banking world, take Lehman as an example, and we will
have many more Lehmans in the future, the counterparty doesn’t pay or
isn’t able to pay.
What
that means is the gross remains the gross, and again, we have an
outstanding exposure, worldwide, of an unfathomable $1.1 quadrillion.
You also have to realize that there are virtually no reserves against
these enormous positions.
This is the reason, as I’ve said, that
investors have to hold assets outside of the banking system. Let’s
take a look once again at the cube chart, just to look at the
proportion of outstanding derivatives to gold:
You have $1.1 quadrillion of derivatives,
and all of the gold ever produced, which is in one corner of the chart,
is $9 trillion. If you take the gold said to be held by central banks,
which assumes the central banks physically possess the 30,000 tons and
I don’t believe they have anywhere near that, but hypothetically
speaking, if they did, it is only $1.6 trillion worth of gold.
You
can see in the above chart that the central bank gold only fits into a
tiny corner of the cube. So what I am saying with this chart is if
there is a derivatives blow up, you can only imagine the amount of
money that would need to be printed. And, again, I think there is a
very high probability of a derivatives blow up taking place.
If
you then related the enormous derivative position to the percentage of
gold allegedly held by central banks, if gold were to reflect that, you
are not talking about gold at $10,000 or $20,000, you are talking about
gold well above $100,000 an ounce. This is what investors must focus
on in terms of the bigger picture for gold.”
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