希臘今日大選，反緊縮政策的激進左翼聯盟在選前民調繼續領先，有望造就40歲領袖齊普拉斯上台執政。這名左翼政客承諾上台後廢除緊縮政策，推出補貼改善民生，獲得不少選民支持，但被對手質疑錢從何來，揶揄他是「懂用魔法變出財富的哈利波特」。外界擔心齊普拉斯上台後，希臘或脫離歐元區，更可能促使歐洲其他
地區的反緊縮勢力乘勢崛起，扭轉歐盟此前政策方向，釀成新一輪經濟危機。
競選活動最後一天的民調結果顯示，激進左翼聯盟支持率領先執政新民主黨達5.2至6.7個百分點，要
勝出大選應不成問題，但相信未必能取得國會過半議席，需與其他政黨合組聯合政府。報道指，由新民主黨變節黨員組成、反對國際救助的獨立希臘人黨，與齊普拉
斯的反緊縮立場一致，被視為潛在選擇之一。
大選投票由當地時間今早7時至晚上7時(香港時間今午1時至明天凌晨1時)進行，之後隨即公開票站調查結果。初步點票結果預計在晚上9時半(香港時間明天凌晨3時半)出爐。
希臘債務危機「爆煲」後，政府為了換取國際援助，實施嚴苛的緊縮措施，民生百上加斤，民怨四起。齊普
拉斯一直批評國際債權人給出的條件過於苛刻，堅持重新商討援助條款，甚至揚言要求再次取消希臘部分債務，又承諾提升最低工資、創造職位、補貼食物和電費開
支等，引起不少選民共嗚，造就他成為當地政壇一顆急速冒起的新星。
未婚不打呔 演講變身貓王
齊普拉斯與希臘傳統政客形象迥異，他不喜歡打領呔，又愛與支持者打成一片，有傳媒便形容他在演講台上就像「舞台上的貓王」。家庭背景方面，齊普拉斯與女伴交往廿載仍未結婚，兩人育有兩子，幼子更以已故古巴革命家哲古華拉起名。若齊普拉斯當選，他將成為希臘史上首位未婚總理，對於保守的希臘社會可說是一大轉變。
執政經驗淺 被譏魔法救經濟
齊普拉斯前日表示，歐盟與國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)要求以緊縮換取援助是對希臘的「侮辱」，揚言已準備好與國際債權人「作正面衝突」，為希臘人尋回「尊嚴」。希臘副總理韋尼澤洛斯批評激進左翼聯盟執政經驗淺，並指齊普拉斯許下無法兌現的承諾，諷刺他像
哈利波特般，想用魔法來挽救經濟。韋尼澤洛斯又稱，目前希臘繳付的債息已較2010年減少40%，理論上並非無法償還。
■美聯社/法新社/路透社/《獨立報》/《每日電訊報》
文匯報
希臘6年前陷入衰退至今，經濟仍未有顯著起色，打工仔平均月薪跌至600歐元(約5,213港元)，全國一半年輕人失業。有母親為了養家，不惜瞞覑家人賣淫。有情侶不敢結婚生子，即使懷孕也選擇墮胎，導致生育率愈來愈低。
一家合法妓院的老闆指，過去5年來求職的已婚婦女增加一倍，但由於聘請已婚婦人當妓女屬違法，因此她
們不獲聘用，不少人淪為流鶯。女醫生喬治婭便是一例，其私人診所每周只有3人應診，每逢夏天、色情行業旺季，喬治婭瞞覑家人，私下賣淫賺錢，為家人付租金
及年邁雙親的醫療費。她形容自己過覑雙重生活，正尋找國外的醫護工作，希望早日有回音。
無能力置業 不敢結婚生仔
在目前經濟環境下，希臘年輕人無能力置業或租屋，需與父母同住，令結婚生育的意慾下降。希臘簽署首份
國際援助貸款協議後，當地出生率加速下降，從2010年有11.5萬新生嬰兒，至前年已跌至9.4萬。婦產科醫生帕帕佐普洛斯認為長此下去會缺乏年輕勞動
力，沒人支付養老金，觸發連串社會問題。
■英國廣播公司
www.zerohedge.com
Left-wing anti-EU party Syriza has extended its lead over incumbent Nea Dimokratia (ND) to 7 percentage points in the polls ahead of tomorrow's crucial Greek election. As Keep Talking Greece reports, To Potami and Golden Dawn (the neo-Nazi party that is facing charges for being a "criminal organization") are running 3rd with 6-7% of the vote (Syriza 33.5%, ND 26.5%) and with 20% admitting they had changed their opinion about which party to vote for in the pre-election period, it appears ND incumbents have taken up the "Scotland" strategy - fearmongery. Speaking on Greek TV, just 48 hours before the elections, ND-candidate Sofia Voultepsi implied that if Syriza wins the elections and forms a government on Monday Greeks will run out of toilet paper... and with JPMorgan noting that deposit outflows hit EUR8bn last week (double the previous 2 weeks combined), the "bank run" could easily morph into Venezuelan "toilet paper runs."
As Keep Talking Greece explains,
As Bloomberg notes, Syriza's success (or failure) will foreshadow the future of anti-austerity movements elsewhere in Europe.
The Greek vote is being closely watched in Spain,
where the anti-austerity Podemos party is now running ahead of Prime
Minister Mariano Rajoy's party before a general election later this
year. Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias even joined Tsipras at a rally in
Athens this week. The government in Madrid has been scrambling to
reassure markets that the situation in Greece won't spread to their
country. Spain and Greece are "totally different," Spanish Economy
Minister Luis de Guindos told Bloomberg Television today in Davos.
The Greek vote is being closely watched in Spain,
where the anti-austerity Podemos party is now running ahead of Prime
Minister Mariano Rajoy's party before a general election later this
year. Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias even joined Tsipras at a rally in
Athens this week. The government in Madrid has been scrambling to
reassure markets that the situation in Greece won't spread to their
country. Spain and Greece are "totally different," Spanish Economy
Minister Luis de Guindos told Bloomberg Television today in Davos.
The bailed-out economies of Ireland and Portugal also have growing anti-austerity movements. "If a new Greek government wins concessions, then Ireland and Portugal would be first in the queue looking for similar treatment, and other countries would be looking for leeway in meeting EU targets," columnist Cliff Taylor wrote in the Irish Times earlier this month. But leaders of those movements will have a hard time making their case to voters if Tsipras, Europe's No. 1 anti-austerity poster boy, steps back from confrontation.
www.zerohedge.com
Left-wing anti-EU party Syriza has extended its lead over incumbent Nea Dimokratia (ND) to 7 percentage points in the polls ahead of tomorrow's crucial Greek election. As Keep Talking Greece reports, To Potami and Golden Dawn (the neo-Nazi party that is facing charges for being a "criminal organization") are running 3rd with 6-7% of the vote (Syriza 33.5%, ND 26.5%) and with 20% admitting they had changed their opinion about which party to vote for in the pre-election period, it appears ND incumbents have taken up the "Scotland" strategy - fearmongery. Speaking on Greek TV, just 48 hours before the elections, ND-candidate Sofia Voultepsi implied that if Syriza wins the elections and forms a government on Monday Greeks will run out of toilet paper... and with JPMorgan noting that deposit outflows hit EUR8bn last week (double the previous 2 weeks combined), the "bank run" could easily morph into Venezuelan "toilet paper runs."
As Keep Talking Greece explains,
And JPMorgan is seeing the other type of "run" accelerating...If SYRIZA wins the elections and forms a government on Monday Greeks will run will run out of toilet paper. This is what ND-candidate Sofia Voultepsi implied just 48 hours before the elections.
“bank run” vs “toilet paper run”?
Speaking to Mega TV on Friday morning, former government spokeswoman Sofia Voultepsi claimed:
“People believe that bankruptcy is what we experience now. Bankruptcy is when imports, fuel, raw materials and medicines are being immediately stopped. This is something we have seen in Cyprus, in Venezuela, in Argentina.”
When one of the news magazine anchors intervened and commented that “what you say sounds as if we will not have toilet paper,” Voultepsi replied:
“No, there is no toilet paper in Argentina and Venezuela. Therefore, I recommend, you do your supplies.”
...
In spite of the Nea Dimokratia fear-mongering elections strategy of “SYRIZA = default”, it is not helping the party of PM Antonis Samaras to raise its rates in polls, ND seems to have run out of convincing arguments and keeps chewing the same old candy...
* * *As election looms, Greece sees large €8B deposit outflow this week vs €4B in first two weeks of January and €.3B in December.
As Bloomberg notes, Syriza's success (or failure) will foreshadow the future of anti-austerity movements elsewhere in Europe.
The bailed-out economies of Ireland and Portugal also have growing anti-austerity movements. "If a new Greek government wins concessions, then Ireland and Portugal would be first in the queue looking for similar treatment, and other countries would be looking for leeway in meeting EU targets," columnist Cliff Taylor wrote in the Irish Times earlier this month. But leaders of those movements will have a hard time making their case to voters if Tsipras, Europe's No. 1 anti-austerity poster boy, steps back from confrontation.
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