2017年9月26日 星期二

Is This Why The Rally In Gold & Silver Is Happening? A Shocking Game-Changer For Gold & Silver Is Now Unfolding…


With gold rallying above the key $1,300 level and silver breaking back above $17, is this why the rally in gold and silver is happening?  Today King World News is reporting on a shocking game-changer in the gold and silver markets that is now unfolding.

Eric King:  “Keith, as you know the mid-cycle correction in the gold bull market ended last year.  It was more brutal in terms of duration (over 5 years) vs what we saw in the mid-cycle correction in the 1970s.  I don’t know what it is about this leg of the secular bull market in gold where we are having this correction, but some people are losing it and these are people who have been in the market for 20, 30, 40 years.  There is just something about sentiment in the gold and silver markets right now where some market veterans can’t handle the normal pullbacks, shakeouts, whatever you want to call them, and the usual drama that you see in the gold market.  What are your thoughts on what’s happening?”

A Game-Changer For Gold & Silver Is Now Unfolding

Keith Neumeyer:  “The 5-year bear market was hard on everyone and I think the mining executives are probably the most resilient executives out of any industry in the world.  But 5 years is a long time and it was hard on everyone, especially the investors.  The bottom line was the mining sector had to change during that 5-year period and they have done a pretty good job to reduce costs, return to profitability and move with the tide.

The 5-year bear market really pushed everyone in the industry to make the necessary changes, and all the sudden early 2016 comes along and many high-quality mining stocks went up 300, 400, 500 percent….  

Keith Neumeyer continues:  “Everyone was pretty excited and said, ‘Oh my God, finally the bull market is back again!’  And then, boom, in July/August of 2016, the surge ended.  Now stocks are down 50, 60, 70 percent from those highs.  There was a lot of optimism at that peak and now there is a lot of pessimism. Some are worried that no one really knows where we are.  They wonder, ‘Was that a fake out or the beginning of a new bull market?’  That’s the question everyone is asking right now.

The Beginning Of A New Bull Market

I believe we are at the beginning of a new bull market.  Investors are short-sighted.  People don’t remember what it was like going back to 2001, 2002, when gold hit $250 and silver was trading in the $4 area.  Then all the sudden the market lit up from 2002 to 2011.  But I would urge people to go back and look at the charts from that time period because there were some gut-wrenching corrections during that period of time.

I remember that 2006 was an absolutely brutal market.  In fact, we had several brutal markets over that 10-year period, yet silver hit $50, up more than 10-times in price, and gold went over $1,900, up 8-times in price.  So these kinds of moves are happening all over again and I think we are going into another 5 to 10 year bull market, and right now, Eric, we are just in one of those normal corrections.”

Eric King:  “There has been such an enormous amount of money printing across the globe.  This has created a moving target for the price of gold, whether it’s $3,000, $4,000, $5,000, or even some calls for $10,000 and higher.  Where are gold and silver prices headed?”

$8,500 Gold And $140 Silver

Keith Neumeyer:  “If you just look at the math from the previous bull market where the price of gold went from $250 to $1,900, up roughly 8-times in price, and you call $1,050 the low and gold goes up 8-times, that puts the price of gold near $8,500.  If you do the same kind of math for silver, we will see $130 to $140 silver.  Those are the kinds of price levels I’m expecting to see over the next 5 to 10 years.

And the mining sector is tiny, so when the money starts flowing into the sector again, the sector will absolutely start to fly just like it has many times in the past.  But what happens to most investors is they wake up one morning and they realize the mining share market is already up 100 or 200 percent and they missed the move.  For me, I love to buy things that are on sale.  I love to buy things when no one wants them.  That’s what I’ve done throughout my career building companies.  In all those cases I acquired projects when nobody wanted them.

An Opportunity For Those Brave Enough To Act

And circling back to how bad the sentiment is in the gold and silver markets, Eric, let me just give you one example:  First Mining Finance (symbol FF in Canada and FFMGF in the US) just put out a remarkable press release.  First Mining’s Springpole project is one of the largest undeveloped gold projects on the entire planet.  This project is going to be a 300,000 ounce per year producer and it’s got a Net Present Value (NPV) of over a billion dollars.  And on a post-tax basis, it’s around $800 million with a 26 percent internal rate of return.  Those are unheard of numbers, and yet the market cap of First Mining Finance is under $300 million.  Well, the value of just this one asset is close to 3-times the current value of the entire company.  And the stock has basically been trading flat since that news was released.  This is just one example of where this a great opportunity for investors who aren’t afraid to act.”

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Hurricane Maria Has Transformed Puerto Rico Into A "Cash Only" Economy

當無電力時, 現金是皇 !


Electricity, internet access and cell phone service have been offline in parts of Puerto Rico for a whole week. And with the island still struggling to rescue people stranded in remote villages, those managing the emergency recovery effort have yet to focus their attentions on the monumental task that looms ahead: Rebuilding the island’s devastated infrastructure, from communications to sewers and water treatment plants that have been damaged by flash flooding and 155 mph winds that Hurricane Maria visited upon the island.

The damage, as Bloomberg reports, has essentially knocked Puerto Rico’s economy back into the 1950s. For locals who’re struggling to begin the process of rebuilding their damaged homes, shops across the island are only accepting cash.

The cash economy has reigned in Puerto Rico since Hurricane Maria decimated much of the U.S. commonwealth last week, leveling the power grid and wireless towers and transporting the island to a time before plastic existed. The state of affairs could carry on for weeks or longer in some remote parts of the commonwealth, and that means it could be impossible to trace revenue and enforce tax rules.

The situation further frustrates one of the many challenges already facing a government that has sought a form of bankruptcy protection after its debts swelled past $70 billion: boosting revenue by collecting money that slips through the cracks.

The cash-only economy could create problems for the island’s cash-strapped government, as business owners will no doubt be tempted to avoid declaring some of their revenues, depriving PR’s government of badly needed revenue.

 In fact, the power blackout only exacerbates a situation that has always been, to a degree, a fact of life in Puerto Rico. Outside the island’s tourist hubs, many small businesses simply never took credit cards, with some openly expressing contempt for tax collectors and others claiming it was just a question of not wanting to deal with the technology.

But those were generally vendors of bootleg DVDs, fruit stands, barbers - not major supermarkets. Now, the better part of the economy is in the same boat.

And after a week without power, the few ATMs on the island that still work have run dry, while most others are simply out of service.

As Bloomberg reports, many Puerto Ricans were still living off what money they thought to withdraw ahead of the storm. When a branch of Banco Popular in San Juan opened on Monday morning, the line stretched about 200 people deep for banking and ATM services. People fanned themselves with whatever they could find and held umbrellas against the sun. At the back stood Giddel Galliza, 64, a music teacher.

“I didn’t want to come because of the lines,” he said. “I need money for basic needs, food, gas - my tank is full but it won’t be forever. I normally pay with my card.”

A similar situation unfolded at a Banco Santander across the street. Erasmo Santiago, a 63-year-old mailman, said he was actually a Popular client but opted to pay a fee and go for the slightly shorter line. “I have my mom living with me, she’s 83,” he said. “So I need money.”

Some store owners, even those in areas of San Juan that are heavily policed, worry that carrying so much cash could leave them vulnerable to a robbery.

In post-hurricane San Juan on Monday, commerce picked up ever so slightly. With a little effort, you could get the basics and sometimes more: diapers, medicine, or even a gourmet hamburger smothered in fried onions and gorgonzola cheese.
But almost impossible to find was a place that accepted credit cards.
“Cash only,” said Abraham Lebron, the store manager standing guard at Supermax, a supermarket in San Juan’s Plaza de las Armas. He was in a well-policed area, but admitted feeling like a sitting duck with so many bills on hand. “The system is down, so we can’t process the cards. It’s tough, but one finds a way to make it work.”

Ultimately, turning the ATMs back on probably ranks lower on the island’s list of priorities than, say, keeping the diesel generators that are powering hospitals in operation, or evacuating 70,000 people from a river valley in danger of being flooded after a nearby dam failed.

Depending on how long outages persist, Puerto Ricans in some areas may need to resort to bartering for essential goods, as residents find ever more creative ways to transact in the absence of modern technology.

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