2008年11月30日 星期日

恒指 15000 阻力大


雖然這文章是說印度, 但在世上任何國家都一樣可以發生 !


Sunday, November 30, 2008
By Faryal Najeeb

KARACHI: Manipulation and cheating is on the rise in gold markets as customers return to jewellery shops with the onset of wedding season and an added incentive of softening gold prices.

Market sources informed that the dealers mix other elements in pure gold to gain more weight. The mixing in the ramshackle workshops is done with such expertise that shine, lustre and weight remains similar to the precious metal and yet the value is far less than quoted. A gold chain or bangle for instance sold as 22 carat gold may turn out to be only of 18 carat gold and rest being impurities.

A dealer who did not want to be named said that he has been in the business for almost 30 years and while cheating customers of their money is not an unusual practice amongst gold dealers, the recent financial crises and inflation have increased the occurrence of this illegal practice seems to be on the rise.

The dealer said that with the absence of hallmarking in local gold jewelleries, the illegal practice is easy to follow and in fact is one of the major reasons of trade malpractice.

Hallmarking is a mark showing that something is of high quality whereas the act of hallmarking is where precious metals such as gold, silver and platinum are stamped/ branded with the weight and purity (the carat) hence signifying the authenticity of the precious metals.

President All-Pakistan Supreme Council of Jewellers Association, Alhaj Haroon Rashid Chand also referred to the lack of hallmarking in the country and said that apart from local customers even international trade was being influenced by the lack of the practice. He said that local gold was often wrongly evaluated which led to either a loss for Pakistan or mistrust amongst foreign counterparts.

Citing an example, he shared that Americans wear 9k, 12k and 18k gold jewelleries more popularly and there had been a case where 9k gold items were labelled as 12k and 12k as 18k gold items. Needless to say, the incident had brought much shame to our trade� he added.

All over the world hallmarking is carried out and verified by authentic associations and only then the final product is sent out into the market which helps to reduce fraud cases but in our country we do not even have an official representative organisation�, he informed.

Sources within the gold markets informed The News that malpractice is on the rise amongst gold smiths and dealers as they dupe customers by charging them for 22k (carats) gold jewelleries while providing them accessories of a much lower value as it is often mixed with copper and silver metals.

The dealer said that it was the first time in several years that the market had seen such an appalling decline in customers and traders in his business were getting desperate to prevent their businesses from failure.

He said that his family had been goldsmiths for centuries and his grandfather had brought the trade to Pakistan from India following the partition. He shared that even when learning the trade as a child from his masters, he had often witnessed malpractice in form of mixing copper with gold to give it the full look� that a 22k gold item has.

I am ashamed to say that even my forefathers have played their game to survive in the market, but they never cheated loyal customers� he was quick to add. He explained that cheating in the value of gold jewelleries is common when customers order designs and collect it at a later date.

During the melting and remaking process that other elements are mixed in. At other times the weight of the final accessory is also often tampered with as very few customers recheck on the weight of the jewelleries during the time of collection� he expressed.

Haroon Rashid, on the other hand, explained the more technical aspects of jewellery making and how gold are mixed with other alloys which give them pure-gold look and weight.

He explained that to provide hardness and shine to gold of a dull yellow colour similar to 22k gold items, one masha (0.98g) gold is mixed with 6 rati (0.73g) copper and 2 rati (0.24g) silver. For 18k gold which is of a brighter yellow colour, one masha (0.98g) gold is mixed with 6 rati (0.73g) silver and 2 rati (0.24g) copper.

Chand informed that this was the basic fundamental calculation for mixing gold to form various forms of carats and parallel ratios were used for greater amounts of the precious metal.

He further elaborated that it was during this mixing process when higher levels of copper and lower levels of gold were substituted to form a manipulated final product. Chand articulated that nowadays with gold becoming increasingly expensive, people preferred 21k gold sets which encouraged illegal mixtures as it helped to bring the prices of the accessories further down.

The expert went on to inform that earlier customers used to buy jewelleries as heavy as 10 tolas but now following the steep hike in gold value within a year, the trend has shifted towards lighter weight jewelleries commonly ranging between 3-5 tolas only.

He said that slowly the trust that customers had in their jewellers had faded mainly due to those dealers in the industry who seek maximised profits and care little about customer-dealer relationship. The expert advised public to trust only old gold smiths who have a recognised name or ones that have been in the family for years. He said that their charges may be high but their work is authentic.

Any jeweller offering lower charges especially for you� is definitely cheating you� he continued. To matter how much he tries to convince you by saying that the lower charges are to make you a permanent customer, its manipulation as a businessman who never run into a loss himself� he added.

2008年11月28日 星期五




其 實,數年前尖子與此交易主管及其剛剛離職的上司曾有數面之緣,相信他們是約10年前為該澳資銀行在香港建立股票衍生業務的開荒牛。上司擁有法律學位,代表 作是以Equity Linked Investment(一種等同股票掛鉤票據,但可以大大降低其銷售數額限制的怪胎)開拓零售銀行這個銷售渠道;至於向舊公司作巨額索償的交易主管,似乎 就未見其金融市場或衍生產品之見識有特別的過人之處。

所謂時勢造英雄,此澳資銀行把握了香港監管機構對零售衍生產品監管寬鬆的機遇,以較 其他同業進取、針對大眾宣傳模式,在過去10年創造了一個神話,令一家不見經傳的外資銀行,一度躍升為佔有香港窩輪市場成交近三成的主要窩輪發行商,其香 港股票衍生部門盈利,佔該銀行全球投資銀行業務盈利(連澳洲在內)的一半有多。

一家紮根澳洲的銀行,其香港的股票衍生業務,居然超越其在 澳洲的本業,反映了香港優越的盈利環境。除了香港的宣傳監管及銷售限制較為寬鬆外,澳洲政府一向鼓勵股票期權市場的發展,讓散戶以股票期權作為槓桿投機及 風險管理的工具,亦是令投資銀行在澳洲難以賺取它們在香港所獲暴利之理由。


大家要留意,此澳洲投資銀 行在香港的窩輪及牛熊證之成交,已於近年跌至市場的一成以下,但其剛離職的僱員依然有條件索償5000多萬港元。尖子估計,外資行提供給香港投資者的衍生 金融產品,發行商與分銷機構每年就瓜分了近百億港元的利潤。特區政府實應評估此巨額利潤的實際數字,為衍生市場輔以適當的監管。假設政府在不影響市場參與 者所投入的資源下,改變經營環境,讓本地的公眾投資者能省回一半現在被一小撮機構所賺取的暴利,其所達致的經濟效益,有機會等同創造數萬個職位,故此政府 不應對此掉以輕心。


2008年11月27日 星期四

Thanksgiving Gifts

www.kitco.com 全文

Nov 24 2008 12:34PM


It was a very volatile week but in the end the shorts and option writers won the day smashing gold down below $750 when price blew through that mark as quickly as it went up it went down. It’s unfortunate and obvious. Friday was a new day and with option expiry over the price was allowed to move since there was nothing at stake. And move it did up a whole $57. When gold is allowed to trade the strong demand is obvious as price moves explosively. I expect to see more of that on the upside over the course of the next couple of weeks.

The DOW escaped narrowly from closing below the physiologically important 8,000 level and only lost 5.31% on the week. The Nasdaq was less fortunate and lost 8.74% while the S&P 500 lost 8.39% and closed right on the important 800 mark.

Up north in Canada the TSX lost a terrible 9.94% and the Vancouver exchange was slaughtered to the tune of 12.16. It just keeps getting worse and worse.

When the pain for metals will end is still up in the air, but I remain convinced that December tax loss selling will give us the climax we have been waiting for. If a default happens on the Comex in that month it will be all she wrote and the good times will be rolling. The Vancouver index will very likely double overnight and shock the world.

Gold ended up for a change to the tune of 6.64%. Although the price was capped to maximize gains by option writers on Thursday the price traded freely and very strongly on Friday rising $57. I expect the shorts to lose the battle in December and possibly call a force majeure if the Comex ends up defaulting. I am not getting my hopes up, but it is a real possibility.

RSI finally moved above 50 marking a real possibility of a trending move up. The 20 day moving average was smashed on Friday and even the 50 day was bested. Both averages are flat and about to turn up and the 100 day is close to being flat. The first Fibonacci line was beat but gold needs to stay above that line for another day before this move can be called more than a one day aberration. Resistance above here is not that strong so a follow through move all the way up to $841 could be fast and furious.

MACD is very low but moving up strongly with momentum above 0. Slow STO is above 50 now breaking the previous high at 50. I think this is it. With December delivery beginning soon we could be in for some spectacular fireworks to the upside.

On the gold supply front it is seen to likely be reduced by 15% to 20% over the next two years as credit conditions slow growth. The crisis is seen as an opportunity by majors to acquire great development assets on the cheap over that timeframe. I don’t think that problem will persist quite that long. Seeing how gold moved up today (Friday) $57 shows how explosive price can move making projects economical literally overnight. Credit is not hard to find if your project is of high quality.

The Perth Mint had to stop taking orders after demand could simply not be met. The mint is working three shifts 24/7 and cannot output enough metal to meet the demand tsunami. 80% of the demand is coming mainly from Europe then Russia, Ukraine, the Middle East and the US. One $30 million order was filed for a European customer.

Demand for silver is surging in Russia although a small amount but considering its only one bank the countries total must be far higher. Six tonnes of silver was purchased in the first ten months of 2008, triple the total for all of 2007. Gold demand from the bank was up 150% over last year’s total.

The recent 1998 crisis is fresh in their memory and they have learned their lesson and know better. As the saying goes, fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me. They will not be fooled again. Banks in general are seeing large amounts of withdrawals lately so expect precious metal demand to continue to pick up strongly. On CNBC this week commentators were in Russia and saying how people were buying new cars and other real commodities to store value rather than holding cash. Metals must be hard to come by if they are buying new cars and expecting them to hold their value.

There seems to be quite a stir brewing over the potential of Chinese raising their gold reserves. The talk on the street is that they would raise the reserves from 600 tonnes presently to 4,000 tonnes to diversify their increasingly unstable dollar reserves. This story may just be a veiled warning to the west and other interests who would rather see gold stay lower to shape up or the threat will be carried out sending reverberations through western central banks.

If the Chinese are to acquire gold they will not want to pay up and will accumulate it as slowly and as stealthily as possible. China is on track to produce 285 to 300 tonnes of gold this year up from 270.49 tonnes in 2007. They will need to shop for gold in the open market rather than take more than ten years to grow reserves internally.


最好吾好多過五隻, 太多隻股票在手, 到時走貨難又太分散,
但散戶弊病是愈買愈多, 因為自己買個隻多數吾多升, 所以會追升個隻, 到追到就倒跌或吾陏 !
如果你本人出現呢個情況, 就勸你停一停, 少炒股為妙, 因為運氣吾會成日有 !

我睇呢十二月和一月如大市跌, 就是買貨時 !
但須選好前景的股來買 ! 哪些是好前景股 ? 自己做功課啦 !


還是太早, 須等十二月表現先 !

2008年11月26日 星期三


全世界須填數 !
又去返無利息時代, 先可以見到人債的好處 !



(明報)11月26日 星期三 18:15

人民銀行 宣布,由明日起,下調金融機構一年期人民幣存貸款基準利率各1.08個百分點。



人 行同時從12月5日起,下調工商銀行、農業銀行、中國銀行 、建設銀行 、交通銀行 、郵政儲蓄銀行等大型存款類金融機構人民幣存款準備金率1個百分點,下調中小型存款類金融機構人民幣存款準備金率2個百分點。同時,繼續對汶川地震災區和 農村金融機構執行優惠的存款準備金率。


2008年11月25日 星期二

美元轉弱 ?



(明報)11月25日 星期二 15:50







(明報)11月25日 星期二 11:00

一項對沖基金 經理人的調查顯示,對沖基金可能仍再出售約2000億美元 資產。

Sanford C. Bernstein & Co.的調查顯示,63%的對沖基金經理人稱,拋售資產、降低槓桿的工作至少已完成一半,23%稱這個部分已完成約四分之三。


根據Hedge Fund Research Inc.,今年至10月止,標普500指數跌38%,對沖基金平均虧損約16%。


2008年11月22日 星期六

Ignore the Stock Market Until February


Friday, November 21, 2008

provided by

Down in the morning, up in the afternoon. Or is it the other way around? The topsy-turvy stock market is tough to read.

In the last year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has briefly been over 13,000 and below 8,000. The past month has felt like the Cyclone roller coaster on Brooklyn's Coney Island -- lots of ups and downs, the whole rickety thing feeling like it's going to crash at any minute.

Great investors are taught to listen to the market. Each tick of the tape has something to say about expectations for growth, inflation, policy changes and looming recessions. The stock market is like a giant mass of pulsing plasma doing price discovery and a game of hot potato, getting stocks into the correct hands with the right risk profile. It's way too big for any one person to manipulate, let alone touch directly. Instead, millions of us provide input with our buying and selling decisions.

When it's at its most efficient, with buyers and sellers neatly matched up at the right price, it's a pretty good predictor. The Crash of 1929 announced a recession, and the wake-up call unheeded might have caused many of the bad policies leading to the Great Depression. The Crash of 1987? Not so much.

You see, the market is a great manipulator. In September, the Dow dropped 700 points intraday after the House of Representatives voted down the Treasury's TARP bank-rescue bill. Spooked, the House passed the bill the next week. Or how about this? The Dow was up 300 points on Election Day applauding an Obama victory and then down 1,600 points since.

The market can also be a bold-faced liar. On Jan. 22, the Fed announced an emergency 75-basis-point rate cut in response to huge drops in European markets. A few days later, it came out that a rogue trader at Société Générale lost them $7 billion and the bank was unwinding his positions. Oops.

So which is it now: an efficient mechanism or a manipulating liar? Should you listen to it warning of doom or anticipating renewal? I'd say stick wax in your ears and don't listen to the market until February.

Don't get me wrong. The freezing of the credit markets is wreaking havoc on the world economy. Corporate profits are dropping. Central banks are fighting off deflation and may not turn off the spigots fast enough -- which could ignite runaway inflation. But because of the credit mess, I am convinced the stock market is at its least efficient today. Don't read too much into any move. Here are the five biggest dislocations taking place:

- Tax-loss selling: Whenever you have a loss in a stock -- and who doesn't -- it's always tax smart to sell it, take a tax loss and either buy something similar or wait 30 days and buy the original one back. December can be an ugly month of indiscriminate selling. The December effect will be huge this year.

- Mutual-fund redemptions: Mutual funds are also dumped for tax losses. When the stock market is down in the morning, it's usually because of mutual-fund redemptions.

Fidelity's giant Magellan fund, down 56%, is one of many in the $6 trillion stock-fund business having an awful year. As investors call or click to get out of these funds, Fidelity and the others have to unload shares the next morning to raise cash. This forced-selling overwhelms the system. New York Stock Exchange specialists, who are supposed to maintain an orderly market, stop buying and back away. You get huge drops, which can unnerve even more investors and cause them to redeem.

- Mutual fund cap-gain distributions: To make matters worse, in December mutual funds do capital-gains distributions. In a down year like 2008, you would think there are no taxes to pay. Think again. Legg Mason's Value Trust, run by Bill Miller, outperformed the market for 15 years by buying many "unvalue" names like Amazon. As investors redeem, he is forced to sell many of these stocks originally purchased at very low prices, triggering huge capital gains in a year his fund is down 62%. You can almost guarantee investors also will sell more of these funds to pay their unexpected tax bill.

- Hedge-fund redemptions: Instead of overnight selling like mutual funds, hedge funds typically require 45 days' notice for investors to get out of a fund. They've been furiously selling since September to raise cash to pay investors. This usually shows up as a set of stocks that just go down and down and down with no obvious explanation.

Rubbing salt in hedge-fund wounds is the fact that Lehman Brothers was a prime broker to many hedge funds, holding their shares. While Lehman's bankruptcy was not a problem in the U.S., in England the policy is to freeze accounts until the mess can be sorted out. There are billions in assets locked in this bankruptcy, and hedge funds are forced to sell positions in the U.S. and elsewhere to raise cash, exacerbating the downside here.

By the way, when hedge funds are down for the year, they work practically for free until they make up the loss. We'll see hedge funds close and stocks liquidated as -- no surprise -- hedge-fund managers like to get paid.

- Margin calls: Whenever stocks go down sharply, you quickly find who owns them with debt. We have seen spectacular margin calls, a requirement for more capital to cover share losses. Chesapeake Energy CEO Aubrey McClendon unloaded 33 million shares to cover losses. Viacom CEO Sumner Redstone had a forced sale of $400 million in Viacom and CBS shares because of a margin call on other stocks. You can bet many not-so-public margin calls are behind many huge price drops. These usually take place in the last 30 minutes of trading.

So won't January be alright once these dislocations weighing on the market are lifted? The January effect is supposed to be positive.

Well, often money managers are fired at the end of disastrous years. A new manager comes in, looks at the existing positions and dumps them all and remakes the portfolio with new stocks that he likes, thus generating more selling. My favorite Wall Street adage suggests that the stock market trades to inflict the maximum amount of pain. Remember, you can only ignore the stock market for so long. Once everyone thinks it can only go down . . . it might go up.

Mr. Kessler, a former hedge-fund manager, is the author of "How We Got Here" (Collins, 2005).

2008年11月21日 星期五

金價今晚最高 801

本來 hold 住三分之一資金, 在金跌破 700 樓下才加碼, 睇來買吾到平金了 !


金升油跌 !

2008年11月20日 星期四


吾睇市, 出去消費好過,
及在 hyper inflation 沒殺到來之前, 剩商店大減價買夠日用品 !


之後外幣和金跟美股跌返落去; 金在 760 遇好大阻力 !
睇來股市低位沒算低, 都還須忍忍手 !

2008年11月19日 星期三


金發威 !

2008年11月18日 星期二


近來同身邊朋友舊客提起炒金, 得吾到回應 !
有人說在高位九百幾出佐金飾, 有人說在六百幾已沽曬 !
說要五百幾才會買返 !

睇怕, 美在等 Obama 上台


WASHINGTON (AP) -- The two top salesmen for a $700 billion financial bailout are in for a grilling by Capitol Hill lawmakers just one week after the administration officially ditched the original strategy behind the rescue.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson are expected to provide greater insights into the shift when they testify Tuesday before the House Financial Services Committee.

In a profile published Tuesday in The Washington Post, Paulson, who is overseeing the bailout program for the Bush administration, said he was also working on a proposal that would allow the government to take over a wide range of financial institutions -- not just banks -- that are in danger of collapse.

Last week, Paulson changed course and announced that the government would not use any of the $700 billion to buy rotten mortgages and other bad assets from banks. That had been the centerpiece of the plan when Paulson and Bernanke originally pitched it to lawmakers.

"Our assessment ... is that this is not the most effective way" to use the bailout money, Paulson said at that time.

Instead, Paulson said the department would focus on rolling out a capital injection program to pour $250 billion into banks in return for partial ownership stakes in them.

It would also search for new ways to boost the availability of auto loans, student loans and credit cards, which have been become harder to get due to the credit crisis, he said.

Specifically, the department, along with the Federal Reserve, is exploring using some of the bailout money to bankroll a new loan facility. The aim: helping companies that issue credit cards, make student loans and finance car purchases.

The idea behind the capital injection program is for banks to use the money to rebuild reserves and lend more freely to customers. However, banks do have the leeway to use the money for other things, such as buying other banks or paying dividends to investors. That has touched a nerve with some lawmakers.

Locked-up lending is a prime reason why the United States is suffering through the worst financial crisis since the 1930s. All the fallout from the housing, credit and financial crises have badly hurt the economy, which is almost certainly in recession, analysts say.

The administration, however, has remained opposed to using some of the bailout money to help troubled U.S. automakers or to provide guarantees for mortgages at risk of falling into foreclosure, another huge source of distress for the economy.

Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass., chairman of the panel, has been tapped by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to draft an aid package for Detroit. The auto companies are seeking $25 billion for emergency loans.

In a break with the administration stance, Sheila Bair, chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., who also will testify Tuesday, recently proposed using $24 billion of the bailout money to help some American households avoid foreclosure.

So far, Treasury Department has pledged $250 billion for banks and has agreed to devote $40 billion to troubled insurer American International Group-- its first slice of funds going to a company other than a bank. That leaves just $60 billion available from Congress' first bailout installment of $350 billion.

Congressional officials said Paulson indicated he is unlikely to tap the remaining $350 billion before the administration leaves office on Jan. 20. That would mean the incoming Obama administration would decide whether and how the money should be spent. The congressional officials spoke on condition of anonymity, saying they were not authorized to disclose the developments.

2008年11月16日 星期日



【 本 報 綜 合 報 道 】 美國 股 神 畢 菲 特 繼 續 在 疲 弱 的 股 市 中 尋 寶 , 其 投 資 旗 艦 巴 郡 上 季 增 持 美 國 第 三 大 油 公司 康 菲 石 油 ( ConocoPhillips ) 股 份 , 成 為 最 大 股 東 ; 並 增 持 德 州 第 二 大 電 力 公司 NRG Energy 股 權 , 反 映 他 看 好 能 源 業 長 遠 前 景 。 不 過 , 巴 郡 已 減 持 美 國 銀 行 ( BOA ) 股 份 。

巴 郡 減 持 美 銀 股 份

據巴 郡 上 周 五 向 當 局 申 報 的 資 料 , 截 至 9 月 30 日 止 , 該 公 司 共 持 有 8396 萬 股 康 菲 石油 , 佔 股 5.6% , 現 市 值 約 40 億 美 元 , 較 3 月 底 時 所 持 1751 萬 股 多 出 3.8 倍 。 期內 巴 郡 亦 增 持 NRG Energy 股 份 54% 至 500 萬 股 , 令 持 股 量 增 至 2.2% ; 據 悉 , NRG 早 前 被 Exelon 公 司 提 出 收 購 , 但 已 拒 絕 收 購 建 議 。
除 上 述 投 資 外 , 巴 郡 於 2000 年 亦 收 購 能 源 公 司 MidAmerican Energy , 反 映 畢 菲 特 看 好 能 源 業 長 遠 前 景 。事 實 上 , 國 際 能 源 機 構 ( IEA ) 估 計 , 全 球 原 油 消 耗 量 到 2030 年 會 激 增 約 25% ,至 每 日 1.06 億 桶 。 分 析 師 稱 , 儘 管 現 時 股 市 低 迷 , 但 畢 菲 特 著 眼 於 未 來 數 十 年 的 投 資 前 景 。
巴 郡 同 時 披 露 , 已 持 有 工 業 設 備 製 造 商 Eaton 的 1.8% 股 權 , 後 者 為 美 國 波 音 飛 機 和 德 國 福 士 汽 車 供 應 零 件 。

2008年11月15日 星期六



(星島日報 報道)金價由高位回落近三成,新興國家對黃金的需求顯著上升。繼中國有意增加黃金儲備後,波斯灣地區的Gulf News日前亦報道,沙地近兩周合共增持了三十五億美元 (約二百七十三億港元)黃金,以近期黃金價徘徊於每盎司七百三十美元計,即每噸黃金約兩億港元,沙地於短短兩周合共增持高達一百三十六點五噸黃金。

  據Gulf News網站本周三報道,沙地對黃金出現了空前的需求,於過去兩周沙地合共斥資一百三十億元沙地利雅(沙特阿拉伯 的貨幣單位)(約三十四點七一億美元),大舉掃入黃金。雖然不排除有投資者因當地股市回落,金融海嘯肆虐,把資金轉移投放於黃金避險,不過,市場人士估計,在短短兩周時間,能斥巨資大舉掃入黃金,相信沙地政府是幕後最大的買家。

  據World Gold Council的資料顯示,沙地九月份持有黃金一百四十三噸,佔其儲備約一成。以黃金儲備量排名,沙地排名全球第二十四位。在過去兩周增持後,估計其黃金儲備量將高逾二百七十九噸,排名將躍升至第二十位。同為石油出口國的委內瑞拉,排名高踞十五位,黃金儲備達三百五十六點八噸,黃金佔其儲備比例高達百分之二十九點三。

  俄羅斯 亦掃近70噸



  據彭博引述中國黃金協會副會長侯惠民表示,中國需要最少數千噸黃金作為儲備,以現時六百噸計,便要增加五至六倍。現時美元上升而黃金價格回落,為中國把儲備由美元轉至黃金造就了一個很好的時機。彭博報道表示,中國人民銀行 北京 發言人拒絕回應中國將增持黃金作儲備的消息。

  雖然中國當局沒有正面回應,但眾多市場人士皆認為,中國增持黃金儲備極為合理,金價目前已回落至相當吸引的水平,中國持金量較日本 的七百六十五點二噸還少,與美國 的八千一百三十三點五噸一比,更是小巫見大巫。



2008年11月14日 星期五



【鉅亨網謝淑娟.綜合報導】 美國政府的7000億美元救市計畫必須大舉發行國債 及印鈔以應付資金需求,勢必令美國財政赤字加劇,長期下來將對美元構成貶值壓力。而中國持有大量美元外 匯儲備,為保值,北京政府有意增加黃金儲備,減低美 元貶值帶來的損失。市場人士則認為,中國持有 3000- 4000噸左右的黃金較為適當。

據《星島日報》報導,中國目前黃金儲備僅 600噸,佔該國外匯儲備約1%,遠低於美國儲備近 8成的8000 噸。今年至 9月底,中國外匯儲備達 1.9兆美元,其中 有超過 60%為美元資產,包括5000億美元以上的美國國 債、3000-4000 億美元的「兩房」相關債券,是美國主 要債權國。

雖中國答應支持美國共禦金融海嘯,但仍未決定是 否要大舉購買美國國債,主要便是因為美元若嚴重貶值,中國將反受其害。美國政府的7000億美元救市計畫必 大舉發行國債及印鈔以應付資金需求,如本季便將發行 550億美元國債;主要買家不外乎就是中國、印度、中 東 3國。美國2008年財政赤字已達4550億美元,佔總體經濟3.2%;2009年更可能突破 1兆美元,佔總體經濟高 達 7%。

大舉發債,美元必將無可避免地貶值。因此為不受 美國財政赤字影響,加以商品有價,中國政府傾向增持 黃金,以平衡外匯儲備。

當前中國黃金儲備僅 600噸,還有很大的增持空間 。敦沛金融期貨部高級副總裁周燕珊指出黃金保值度高 ,故短期內當市場穩定下來後,各國應會增加黃金儲備 ;這也是為何油價狂跌,金價仍支持在 700美元的理由。

她表示,中國在2、3年前金融危機未現之時便已有 意增持黃金,而在目前的環境下,增持需求更強烈。她 認為中國的黃金儲備量介於 3000-4000噸最為合適。

中國黃金協會副秘書長萬國利則表示,中國黃金儲 備不多,適量增持是好事;且現時金價約 710-720美元 ,是買入良機。此外,政府一旦增持必會購入一筆不小 的數目,對金價也有利好作用。

據了解,中國大型金融機構最近在美國債券外增持 黃金,中國央行也容許銀行及保險公司的作法,反映出 內地對黃金投資的態度。

世界黃金協會遠東區董事總經理鄭良豪則表示,國 家亦應分散投資組合,而黃金正是個好工具。以歐洲為 例,歐洲央行會員國的黃金儲備比例為 15%。


把個幾千股中海油轉名長線持有, 有好多人排隊 (超過五十人); 轉名須時兩個星期, 証明有好多人提股票出來轉名 !

2008年11月13日 星期四


只有日元強 !

2008年11月12日 星期三



LONDON (AP) -- The International Energy Agency on Wednesday predicted world energy demand will rise 1.6 percent per year on average between 2006 and 2030 and called for massive investment in energy infrastructure to prevent a supply squeeze.

The IEA's base scenario for energy demand has fallen due to the global economic slowdown and higher oil prices, but the agency stressed that a delay in spending on new projects due to the credit crisis could lead to a "supply crunch that could choke economic recovery."

The IEA expects demand for oil to rise from 85 million barrels per day currently to 106 million barrels per day in 2030 -- 10 million barrels per day less than projected last year.

China and India continue to be the main drivers, accounting for more than half of incremental energy demand to 2030, but the Middle East, a longtime supplier, also emerges as a major new demand center.

The agency said that these trends call for energy supply investment of $26.3 trillion to 2030, or more than $1 trillion a year, but it noted that tight credit conditions could delay spending.

"While the situation facing the world is critical, it is vital we keep our eye on the medium to long term target of a sustainable energy future," Nobuo Tanaka, the Paris-based agency's executive director, told reporters at the release of its annual World Energy Outlook report in London.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, which pumps around 40 percent of the world's oil, cut output by 1.5 million barrels per day from Nov. 1 to counter a recent fall in the price of crude from a high of $147 in July to under $59 on Wednesday.

OPEC has also warned that crucial downstream investment -- in refining and distribution -- will be curtailed if the oil price is not maintained at a reasonable level.

The IEA has nearly doubled its forecast for the price of oil over the next twenty years, because of rising demand in the developing world as well as surging costs of production as oil needs to be sourced from more expensive offshore fields and state-run companies.

It hiked its forecast for the price of a barrel of oil in 2030 to just over US$200 in nominal terms, compared to its forecast last year of US$108 a barrel. Measured in constant dollars, it pegs oil at US$120 a barrel in 2030, up from last year's forecast of US$62.

Over 2008 to 2015, it predicts the price to average $100.

Tanaka said that "while market imbalances will feed instability, the era of cheap oil is over."

Fatih Birol, the IEA's chief economist, warned that even if growth in oil demand remained static in the years to 2030, production would need to increase by 45 million barrels per day, "which means bringing four new Saudi Arabia's on stream."

Saudi Arabia is OPEC's top producer and most influential member, and Birol said that the cartel would be increasingly central to the industry in coming years with its share of output likely to rise to just above 50 percent.

And while Birol believes that oil demand has peaked in the OECD, he expects primary energy demand in the Middle East to surge by 3.2 percent from 2006 to 2030.

Tanaka said that a fundamental change was underway in the upstream oil and gas industry -- exploration and extraction -- with international oil companies facing dwindling opportunities to increase their reserves and production.

In contrast, national oil companies are expected to account for 80 percent of the increase in both oil and gas production to 2030.

However, Tanaka said it was "far from certain" those companies would be willing to make the necessary investment themselves or to attract sufficient capital to keep up the necessary pace of investment."

The report also highlighted the expected rapid growth of renewable energy resources. It predicts that world renewables-based electricity generation -- mostly hydro and wind power -- will overtake gas to become the second-largest source of electricity, behind coal, before 2015.


www.reuters.com 全交
LONDON (Reuters) - A number of deals designed to cure the global financial crisis were in danger of unraveling on Wednesday, with losses mounting at banks and economies showing further signs of serious deterioration.

The euro zone, Britain, China and South Africa reported data supporting the arrival of a global recession and prompting expectations of further interest rate cuts.

"We are certainly prepared to cut ... again, if that proves to be necessary," Bank of England Governor Mervyn King told a news conference after UK inflation was forecast to be minimal.

The International Monetary Fund withheld official backing for a $6 billion bailout plan for Iceland, the Financial Times reported, putting loans to the North Atlantic island nation under threat.

Some of British banking giant Barclays' biggest shareholders have threatened to vote against a planned 7 billion pound ($10.83 billion) capital raising unless it improves the terms of the deal, British newspapers said.

The latter follows a row over the crisis-driven planned purchase of British lender HBOS by Lloyds TSB with leading banking figures arguing a more competitive deal should be sought.

Aides to U.S. President-elect Barack Obama, meanwhile, were playing down reports of tension with the Bush administration over help for the stricken car industry.

A feud within Japan's cabinet over whether rich people should get payouts as part of a stimulus package looked set to be put aside after delaying the plan for weeks.

Questions were also beginning to be asked about just how much help governments can give.

"The U.S.' financial resources are already stretched and a flood of new demands may overwhelm a government already staring down at a record budget deficit next year," UBS economists said in a note.


Financial markets seesawed again under the combined pressure of a global economic downturn and the worst financial crisis in 80 years.

Wall Street looked set for a flat to negative start and European shares dipped in and out of positive territory after losing more than 4 percent on Tuesday.

There were more corporate profit warnings with General Motors shares falling on Tuesday to levels not seen since World War Two.

"Whether it's economic indicators or company news, it's just too awful," said Takashi Ushio, head of the investment strategy division at Marusan Securities in Tokyo.


有錢都係須忍手 !



NEW YORK (Reuters) - For most of the past century, Goldman Sachs was top of the heap among Wall Street's investment banking firms, but its prospects as a heavily regulated bank are not so bright.

After months of fretting about capital and liquidity levels at banks, the market has turned its focus from Goldman's survival prospects to its earnings potential. Investors clearly do not like what they see.

"The days of getting 35 percent (returns) on equity are over -- much of that was achieved with leverage," Mendon Capital President and Chief Investment Officer Anton Schutz told Reuters on Monday.

Brokers and banks, he said, must change their ways. "There is no doubt their balance sheets are seen as weaker. They're trying to get leverage ratios down," Schutz said.

Investors may get some answers when Goldman Chief Executive Lloyd Blankfein speaks at a Merrill Lynch investor conference after the closing bell on Tuesday.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc shares on Monday fell to their lowest levels since 2003 as a growing chorus of analysts forecast plunging markets will produce a fourth-quarter loss -- the firm's first quarterly loss since it went public in 1999.

The stock has plunged 71 percent since reaching a record high last October and is down nearly two-thirds since the end of July. It stood at $72.04 in Tuesday morning trade.

Investors are questioning the firm's ability to retain its famed Midas touch, where an elite army of traders and bankers generated the industry's biggest profits year after year.

The question now is where Goldman will seek new sources of revenue and which businesses it will abandon as it goes through the transition from broker to bank.

"I don't know what Goldman and Morgan Stanley will look like after they re-size," Oppenheimer & Co banking analyst Meredith Whitney said. "I'm agnostic on those names right now. There is a lot they have to go through."


In previous year presentations, Blankfein laid out a blueprint for a firm boldly betting its own capital across markets and companies, taking on more risk than its peers.

He also made no apologies for Goldman's combination of advisory businesses with investment activities. Twelve months ago, he emphasized expansion into fast-growing markets like China and building a private wealth management business.

Since announcing its conversion to a bank and plans to seek a New York state banking charter two months ago, Goldman has been typically mum about its intentions for deposit-gathering and how it would reorganize.

Two months ago, investors made it clear they had little confidence in companies that relied on volatile capital markets for funds needed to run their businesses. Gathering deposits from individuals is now the preferred model.

Banks are expected to maintain higher levels of capital and cash and take on less risk. That has forced Goldman and Morgan to reconsider how to participate in credit intensive businesses such as prime brokerage, deal financing and commodities.

Goldman addressed some of those concerns by selling $5 billion of preferred stock to Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc, $6 billion of stock in a public offering, and $10 billion of preferred stock to the U.S. Treasury.

Last week Goldman fired more than 3,200 employees, or 10 percent of its workforce, the latest in a series of layoffs. And like its peers, it is shedding assets and paying down debt.

That has not stemmed a drumbeat of rumors about the bank's next moves. In recent weeks traders have speculated Goldman will pursue a management buyout or combine with a big bank, perhaps Citigroup.

At the behest of government officials, Blankfein called Citi CEO Vikram Pandit to discuss a potential deal, people familiar with the matter said. Pandit dismissed the idea and the call ended within a minute, the sources said.

For the foreseeable future, debt and mortgage markets remain in disarray. Merger and underwriting activity has slowed to a crawl. Plunging markets are eroding money management fees and generating portfolio losses.

On Tuesday, Fox-Pitt Kelton's David Trone became the latest analyst to forecast a fourth-quarter loss at Goldman. He expects the firm to absorb a $2.7 billion drop in principal investments and a record $2 billion of credit writedowns.

2008年11月11日 星期二

諗下如果港元再俾人衝勢會發生乜事 ?

1. 港元大跌, 資金會流去邊隻貨幣 ?
2. 港元利息大升。
3. 股市, 樓市大跌。
4. 物價大升。

我地可以做乜來防範 ?

一些銀行 promotion

大新銀行[有升有息]高息三個月定期, 2008年12月13日載止 :http://www.dahsing.com

中國建設銀行[息得自在]活期高息戶口, 每月新資金才有高息, 戶口最少保持 5,000 蚊 :
(網頁好差, 只可以用 IE開, 無得用其他 browser ! 須改善 !)
有熊仔 speaker/radio 兩用送, 在上水分行開戶, 11月29日前, 每日首50位還有 50蚊百佳 coupon 送 !
另外在任何分行, 100,000 蚊三個月定期新資金有 200蚊百佳 coupon 送 (息就睇當日息率, 昨天只有 1.9%)!

嘉華銀行和渣打銀行都有高息活期戶口, 不過最少須保持 10,000 蚊在戶口, 吾係會扣錢 !


我講股, 講樓, 講外幣, 講黃金, 講基金, 但好少講保險, 因為買的保險吾多 !

以前在荷蘭做生意借錢, 銀行要我地買壽險, 所以買了, 但好似成日希望自己快些死, 可以有得賠, 之後生意賣了, 就無再買過壽險 !

在荷蘭規定一定要買醫療保險, 自顧人士自付款, 工人就有老闆俾錢 !
後 來回來香港定居後無再買了, 只在返證券行工初初幾年, 公司有代買醫療保, 但在 2000 年出強積金, 公司要我們全班經紀轉自顧, 醫療保險須自己買, 所以無買無了醫療保 !去過銀行睇醫療計劃, 樣樣都要供好多錢, 賠得又少, 不如自己儲起錢備用好過 !

在香港和大陸買樓做按揭, 都要買火險, 一清按揭就無再買了 !
現只有自住呢層樓, 管理處有買火險外, 其餘無買 !

因為前兩年突然浴窒漏水落樓下, 又爆廁所污溝, 要俾錢維修, 所以諗諗下, 呢次小事姐, 但下次可能會有更嚴重事發生, 所以買了家居保險; 又包第三保, 所以幾岩用 !

雖然身邊好多朋友, 舊客戶都是做保險的, 收的卡片都不少, 但覺得, 買佐到時吾知有無得賠, 不如自己儲多些錢保障自己好過 。依家証明我直覺無錯, 連甘大間保險公司都保吾到自己, 又點保你呢 ?

加多句 :
買保險吾好貪平, 吾好選最平保費個間公司, 而要預計間公司信吾信得過, 將來有無得賠錢俾你 !

2008年11月10日 星期一


還以為可以在 700 樓下買到實金 !


www.reuters.com 全文

LONDON (Reuters) - Economic gloom swept through Japan and several emerging nations on Monday and U.S. authorities bailed out struggling insurer AIG, buying $40 billion in new shares to prevent its collapse.

European bank results also bore the scars of the worst financial crisis since the 1930s.

Rating agency Fitch cut Romania's credit rating to "junk" status in one of four emerging market downgrades and said the global financial crisis had put the ratings of South Korea, South Africa, Russia and Mexico in jeopardy.

Foreign investors have dumped east European assets, fearing that many in the region may not be able to handle large foreign debt burdens.

Fitch also cut the ratings of Bulgaria, Kazakhstan and Hungary.

The AIG rescue deal was announced as the insurer, once the world's largest insurer by market value, posted its biggest-ever quarterly loss -- $24.47 billion -- hurt again by writedowns on assets linked to subprime mortgages and capital losses.

The new package will allow the Fed to cut to $60 billion from $85 billion the total available to AIG under a credit facility set up in September.

"These new measures establish a more durable capital structure, resolve liquidity issues, facilitate AIG's execution of its plans to sell certain of its businesses in an orderly manner, promote market stability, and protect the interests of the U.S. government and taxpayers," the Fed said.

In Asia, Japanese manufacturers suffered their biggest quarterly slump in machinery orders in a decade, official data showed, boding ill for capital investment as the economy teeters on the brink of recession

Even fast-growing China has not proved immune.

Beijing approved a 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) government spending package to boost domestic demand and help the world's fourth-largest economy ride out the crisis.

China's stimulus comes on top of more than $4 trillion in government pledges around the world for bank bailouts, credit guarantees and fiscal spending to contain the damage from the worst financial turmoil in 80 years.


剛才去恒生把一個月澳元定期轉做兩個月澳元定期, 另外有個職員在 teller 旁加口 :
職員 : 要吾要做三個月, 息會高 d ?
我 : 我見到(網上)三個月低過二個月息啊 !
職員 : 可以俾高 d 息妳的; 一個月有 1.x%, 第二個月有 2.x%, 第三個月可以有 4.x%, 須睇澳元波動 ......
我 : 呢個吾係掛鉤哇 ?
職員 : 吾係, 係睇澳元到時升定跌...
我 : 甘, 政府保吾保先 ?
職員 : 吾保, 呢 d 吾保.
我 : 甘就係掛鉤囉, 我想只做普通定期, 要做二個月的 !
對在我旁邊的老公說 : 有無搞錯, 依家總 sell 呢 d 野 ! 所以入來都要打起十二分精神 !

2008年11月8日 星期六


至到經濟好返為止 !

97金融風爆, 輸錢的是炒家, 炒股炒樓者都輸錢,
我當時在股市都輸佐一大筆 !
沙士期間, 經濟低迷, 全民一齊捱,
依家金融海嘯, 全世界輸錢, 就連不炒賣的老人家都輸棺材本, 有錢人輸 Accumulator, 廠家,商家都要輸, 雖然我可以避呢劫, 但心中吾好過 !

2008年11月7日 星期五





錯估嚴重性 遭批反應遲緩

 英倫銀行上月才與其他中央銀行協調,緊急把利率從5厘減到4.5厘。英倫銀行今次減息幅度遠超市場預期,是1981年來最大的減幅,3厘的利率是1955年來最低。Charles Stanley的經濟師梅納什稱﹕「外界越來越感到英倫銀行錯估今次衰退的嚴重性,所以反應遲緩。」



丹麥瑞士捷克 各減0.5-0.75




2008年11月6日 星期四



【明報專訊】政府在2002年終止首次置業貸款計劃後,總數3.3萬宗個案中仍有1.5萬宗尚在清還,當中有三成曾拖欠還款,另有1473名欠債業主最終破產收場,令負責貸款的房屋協會面對4.88億元壞帳。運輸及房屋局 長鄭汝樺 昨日表明,金融海嘯下物業市場非常不明朗,市民置業時需要更謹慎,政府不會重推首置貸款鼓勵置業。


半數完成還款 三成曾拖欠

運輸及房屋局長鄭汝樺昨日接受立法會 質詢時指出,3.3萬宗申請中,約1.6萬宗已完成還款,另有1.5萬宗正在還款,但當中有三成人曾拖欠款項,房協正就360宗個案循法律途徑追討。另有1473宗屬破產個案,房協需要撇帳,佔總個案數目的4.4%。房協發言人表示,仍在還款的首置貸款個案總額約為40億元,房協過去為約1500宗壞帳個案已撇帳達4.8億元。





立法會議員馮檢基 指出,過去3個月股市進一步下挫,憂慮房委會投資進一步虧損,他促請房委會「斬纜」,不要再把儲備拿來投資。








 油價上升及美元下跌,刺激金價於4日上升4%,紐約12月期金收市升30.5美元,每盎司報 757.3美元,最高見過766.7美元。市場對全球經濟衰退的憂慮減退,美股造好,投資者更願意承受風險,沽出手頭的美元轉投商品及股市帶動金價上升,白銀及鉑金期貨都上升超過3%。截至昨晚10:14,紐約12月期金最新報753美元,跌0.57%或4.3美元。






2008年11月5日 星期三


轉港元活期 !

感覺上香港是沽美元的好地方, 政府係甘接 !

美元大升有陰謀 ?


美 國 總 統 選 舉 昨 日 投 票 , 希 望 今 晚 能 公 佈 結 果 , 希 望 看 熱 鬧 的 人 會 希 望 奧 巴 馬 當 選 , 開 創 美 國 歷 史 先 河 , 選 出 第 一 位 黑 人 總 統 。
但 是 , 儘 管 奧 巴 馬 在 競 選 時 不 斷 的 說 要 改 變 美 國 、 改 變 世 界 , 但 是 , 面 對 全 球 金 融 海 嘯 , 在 整 個 競 選 過 程 , 我 們 看 不 到 奧 巴 馬 有 甚 麼 解 決 金 融 海 嘯 的 方 案 , 最 後 , 相 信 是 跳 不 出 凱 恩 斯 的 方 法 ─ ─ 加 強 國 家 干 預 , 狂 印 鈔 票 。
過 去 三 個 月 , 全 球 外 匯 炒 家 最 無 法 理 解 的 , 就 是 為 甚 麼 美 元 匯 價 會 轉 強 。 人 人 都 說 美 國 會 狂 印 鈔 票 , 狂 印 鈔 票 之 後 , 市 值 點 解 不 貶 值 ? 但 是 , 偏 偏 美 元 在 過 去 三 個 月 的 匯 價 走 勢 是 上 升 , 而 且 上 升 速 度 驚 人 , 可 以 一 口 氣 使 到 多 種 國 家 貨 幣 兌 美 元 的 幣 值 跌 至 5 年 新 低 、 10 年 新 低 , 這 內 頭 是 不 是 正 隱 含 著 一 個 驚 人 的 陰 謀 ?
甚 麼 陰 謀 ? 試 想 想 , 如 果 全 球 大 小 炒 家 眼 見 美 元 轉 強 、 紛 紛 搶 購 美 元 , 這 不 正 中 美 國 下 懷 ? 美 國 不 正 正 可 以 利 用 全 球 追 捧 、 搶 購 美 元 的 同 時 努 力 印 美 鈔 , 賣 給 這 些 瘋 狂 的 美 元 追 捧 者 ? 這 多 美 好 啊 , 狂 印 鈔 票 而 不 會 導 致 貨 幣 貶 值 , 那 麼 , 就 可 以 多 印 一 些 。 等 到 人 們 發 現 到 美 元 供 應 原 來 增 加 的 這 麼 多 時 , 美 元 匯 率 可 能 又 突 然 地 一 口 氣 狂 瀉 , 已 經 太 遲 了 , 這 群 目 前 追 捧 美 元 的 人 , 很 可 能 又 是 滿 手 美 元 蟹 貨 , 不 知 如 何 是 好 。

中 國 應 以 美 鈔 收 購 資 源

現 在 , 人 人 都 說 美 國 經 濟 衰 退 、 消 費 減 少 、 石 油 、 銅 、 鐵 … … 等 天 然 資 源 的 需 求 會 大 幅 下 跌 , 但 是 , 長 遠 一 點 來 說 , 13 億 中 國 人 的 消 費 、 10 億 印 度 人 的 消 費 , 天 然 資 源 的 需 求 不 可 能 長 期 下 跌 , 也 許 現 在 正 是 中 國 政 府 最 佳 的 機 會 , 利 用 手 上 大 量 的 美 元 在 收 購 海 外 油 田 、 銅 礦 、 鐵 礦 … … 從 1971 年 美 國 宣 佈 放 棄 金 本 位 之 後 , 美 元 兌 日 圓 長 期 下 跌 , 絕 不 是 簡 單 的 所 謂 日 圓 斬 倉 活 動 而 引 起 的 。 1971 年 , 1 美 元 兌 360 日 圓 , 美 國 可 能 永 遠 也 沒 有 機 會 回 復 1971 年 時 的 幣 值 , 因 為 從 1971 年 至 今 , 美 元 供 應 的 數 量 太 驚 人 了 。 美 國 人 印 鈔 票 到 全 球 收 購 、 投 資 , 美 國 人 印 鈔 票 來 消 費 。
但 是 , 相 當 矛 盾 的 是 , 全 球 都 擔 心 美 國 人 不 再 消 費 , 擔 心 美 國 人 不 再 印 鈔 票 來 消 費 。
由 多 位 重 量 級 人 物 組 成 的 經 濟 機 遇 委 員 會 開 了 第 一 次 會 議 , 特 首 曾 蔭 權 在 會 後 說 會 協 助 推 動 銀 行 放 鬆 借 貸 。 如 何 推 動 ? 美 國 已 兩 次 減 息 而 香 港 銀 行 不 追 隨 , 特 區 政 府 無 計 可 施 , 手 上 現 金 最 多 的 香 港 非 正 式 中 央 銀 行 匯 豐 都 不 願 借 錢 出 去 , 餘 者 更 是 有 心 無 力 。

曾 淵 滄
作 者 為 城 市 大 學 MBA 課 程 主 任

2008年11月4日 星期二

2008年11月2日 星期日


www.reuters.com 全文

SYDNEY (Reuters) - Media magnate Rupert Murdoch said on Sunday that Australians were poorly prepared to live in a global economy and may "learn the hard way" what it means.

Speaking amid the most severe economic downturn since the Great Depression of the 1930s, Murdoch cited the recent fluctuations in the value of the Australian dollar as evidence of Australia vulnerability to world markets.

The rise of China and India as economic superpowers, each with a new, vast and ambitious middle class, posed special challenges for Australia, and the country would need to adapt.

"Over the next 30 years or so, two or three billion people will join this new global middle class," Murdoch said at the Sydney Opera House. "The world has never seen this kind of advance before. These are people who have known deprivation.

"These are people who are intent on developing their skills, improving their lives and showing the world what they can do. And they live right in Australia's neighborhood."

The Aussie has lost 15 percent this month as investors unwound carry trades and dumped commodity currencies on expectations that a global recession would hurt demand for natural resources. Australia is a big exporter of commodities.

經濟全球化, 玩共產 ?

www.reuters.com 全文

RIYADH (Reuters) - British Prime Minister Gordon Brown on Sunday called for billions of dollars in extra funding for the International Monetary Fund to prop up struggling economies, while Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said maintaining China's strong domestic growth was his priority.

Leaders from Mumbai to Moscow and Berlin moved to support their own economies on Saturday, with India's central bank cutting interest rates for the second time in two weeks, Russia putting 170 billion roubles ($6.4 billion) into a state bank and German Chancellor Angela Merkel pledging support for a big investment package to boost Europe's largest economy.

Brown, speaking in Riyadh, said oil-producing Gulf States and China should contribute money for the IMF to lend to countries at risk of financial collapse.

"If we are to stop the spread of the financial crisis, we need a better global insurance policy to help distressed economies," Brown said.

Chinese Premier Wen, writing in the ruling Communist Party's ideological journal, warned of growing domestic social risks from a global economic downturn.

"Against the current international financial and economic turmoil, we must must give even greater priority to maintaining our country's steady and relatively fast economic development," Wen wrote.

"We must be crystal-clear that without a certain pace of economic growth, there will be difficulties with employment, fiscal revenues and social development...and factors damaging social stability will grow."

China cut interest rates on Wednesday for the third time in six weeks to help the world's fourth-largest economy ride out the reverberations of the global financial crisis.

In India -- like China, a magnet for foreign investment in recent years as their economies roared -- the central bank on Saturday cut its main lending rate for the second time in as many weeks to ease a cash squeeze and spur economic growth.


Analysts said the surprise move showed Indian concern that strains on its economy were quickly becoming more severe.

"These actions were necessary (and had) to be taken on the liquidity front...the situation was getting worse," said Vikas Agarwal, a strategist at JP Morgan.

The central bank cut the repo rate, its main short-term lending rate, by 0.5 percentage point to 7.5 percent and banks' cash reserve requirements by 1 percentage point to 5.5 percent.

Policymakers around the world have slashed interest rates in recent weeks and injected huge amounts into their banking systems to try to combat the spillover effects of the global crisis, which has caused credit markets to freeze up and threatens to plunge the world economy into recession.

In Riyadh, Brown said the IMF needed hundreds of billions of dollars to protect struggling economies from the crisis.

2008年11月1日 星期六



【 本 報 記 者 直 擊 】 消 費 者 委 員 會 迄 今 接 獲 逾 3,638 宗 涉 及 雷 曼 迷 你 債 券 投 訴 , 炮 轟 銀 行 不 良 銷 售 手 法 。 本 報 最 近 到 多 間 銀 行 查 詢 儲 蓄 計 劃 , 職 員 已 轉 為 推 銷 與 保 險 公 司 掛 的 儲 蓄 人 壽 保 險 , 部 份 聲 稱 回 報 率 高 達 9 厘 , 又 強 調 沒 有 如 雷 曼 倒 閉 血 本 無 歸 的 風 險 。 有 學 者 提 醒 巿 民 選 購 該 等 產 品 同 樣 存 在 風 險 , 輕 則 供 款 完 結 後 「 都 係 得 番 個 本 」 , 更 甚 的 是 假 如 保 險 公 司 倒 閉 , 客 人 隨 時 「 乜 都 冇 晒 」 。   記 者 : 鄧 愷 欣

記 者 日 前 以 顧 客 身 份 分 別 往 涉 及 雷 曼 迷 你 債 券 事 件 的 大 新 、 渣 打 、 星 展 及 南 洋 商 業 銀 行 , 查 詢 儲 蓄 計 劃 。 銀 行 職 員 已 改 為 推 銷 儲 蓄 人 壽 保 險 , 受 保 人 供 款 年 期 由 3 至 24 年 不 等 。 職 員 聲 稱 回 報 率 由 3 至 9 厘 不 等 , 身 故 可 獲 賠 償 , 部 份 計 劃 更 有 退 休 收 入 、 特 別 花 紅 等 。

職 員 又 即 時 向 記 者 索 取 個 人 資 料 , 做 儲 蓄 人 壽 計 劃 建 議 書 , 但 未 有 提 及 風 險 問 題 。 記 者 主 動 問 及 保 險 公 司 結 業 會 否 如 雷 曼 苦 主 般 血 本 無 歸 , 職 員 表 示 : 「 呢 類 儲 蓄 保 險 好 穩 陣 , 保 險 公 司 已 經 有 幾 百 年 歷 史 , 可 以 放 心 ! 」
中 文 大 學 工 商 管 理 學 院 財 務 學 系 副 教 授 蘇 偉 文 指 出 , 銀 行 以 中 介 人 角 色 為 保 險 公 司 推 銷 , 保 險 公 司 一 旦 倒 閉 , 顧 客 同 樣 會 「 乜 都 冇 晒 」 , 「 情 況 同 雷 曼 一 樣 , 如 果 執 笠 隨 時 本 利 冇 晒 ! 選 購 時 一 定 要 考 慮 呢 個 風 險 」 。 而 建 議 書 列 出 的 特 別 紅 利 、 回 報 利 率 及 回 報 金 額 均 是 假 設 性 , 應 以 保 證 可 得 金 額 作 考 慮 , 「 就 算 佢 話 派 5 厘 息 , 到 時 派 唔 到 你 都 冇 佢 符 。 供 完 晒 款 有 可 能 都 係 得 個 本 」 。
蘇 偉 文 續 稱 , 供 款 年 期 也 十 分 重 要 , 如 部 份 銀 行 計 劃 的 供 款 年 期 長 達 12 年 , 供 滿 10 年 才 能 回 本 , 「 咁 即 係 蝕 10 年 息 , 擺 去 定 期 存 款 都 有 20 幾 萬 啦 」 。 相 反 , 部 份 3 年 供 款 8 年 回 報 的 計 劃 就 最 快 回 本 。

「 唔 好 睇 贏 唔 睇 輸 」

國 際 專 業 保 險 諮 詢 協 會 會 長 羅 少 雄 指 出 , 銀 行 職 員 推 銷 產 品 時 趨 於 報 喜 不 報 憂 , 以 求 成 功 簽 定 合 約 取 得 佣 金 , 「 只 講 有 幾 多 回 報 , 唔 講 風 險 」 。 他 建 議 市 民 在 購 買 時 多 作 比 較 及 查 問 清 楚 , 「 貨 比 三 家 , 問 清 楚 有 乜 風 險 , 唔 好 只 睇 贏 唔 睇 輸 」 。

話 你 知 : 購 個 人 保 險 有 竅 門

銀 行 推 銷 個 人 保 險 主 要 分 儲 蓄 人 壽 、 投 資 相 連 及 純 保 障 三 種 , 巿 民 必 須 因 應 自 己 的 需 要 選 擇 。 中 大 工 商 管 理 學 院 財 務 學 系 副 教 授 蘇 偉 文 表 示 , 投 資 相 連 保 險 又 稱 為 「 101 」 , 即 投 保 人 身 故 時 會 有 101% 賠 償 , 「 但 如 本 身 冇 諗 住 買 保 險 , 只 係 想 投 資 , 選 擇 投 資 相 連 保 險 就 會 影 響 你 投 資 回 報 」 。 他 說 , 若 本 身 「 上 冇 高 堂 下 冇 妻 兒 」 , 毋 須 選 擇 含 身 故 賠 償 的 儲 蓄 人 壽 , 可 考 慮 保 障 自 己 的 純 保 障 保 險 。

考 慮 可 承 受 風 險

國 際 專 業 保 險 諮 詢 協 會 會 長 羅 少 雄 表 示 , 購 買 時 要 考 慮 自 己 可 以 承 受 風 險 、 年 齡 、 能 力 、 目 的 , 「 如 果 你 本 身 買 好 多 外 匯 、 股 票 , 咁 就 唔 使 買 投 資 相 連 保 險 , 購 買 純 保 障 醫 療 保 險 好 過 」 。