2019年6月30日 星期日

30專家聯署公開信 籲特朗普棄敵視中國政策

巴士的報

公開信指,美國把中國當成國安威脅,削弱了北京溫和派的影響力
包括美國前外交官和軍方將領在內的多位亞洲專家,聯署公開信,呼籲美國總統特朗普重新思考「視中國為敵」的政策,警告此舉會損害美國利益與全球經濟。據悉聯署者包括美國國務院前代理亞太助卿董雲裳(Susan Thornton)及前駐華大使芮效儉(Stapleton Roy)等人。

特朗普政府2018年的美國國家安全策略,把中國訂位為戰略競爭者,指其尋求取代美國成為全球強權。這封公開信約有30位專家聯署,寫給特朗普和國會。公開信的草稿指出:「雖然北京近來的行徑令我們深受困擾,但我們也認為,美國許多行動造成雙方關係急轉直下。」

這封公開信草稿說:「美國把中國視為敵人,要讓中國從全球經濟脫鈎,此舉將損害美國的國際角色與名聲,破壞所有國家的經濟利益。美國認為中國將取代美國成為全球領袖的憂慮,根本言過其實。」

公開信草稿還寫道,中國政府增加國內鎮壓和對私人企業的控制,「無法履行貿易承諾,還更積極地要控制外國意見,採取更加進取的外交政策」,「對世界其他地方都構成重大挑戰」;然而,美國近來的反應卻適得其反,因為美國把中國當成國安威脅,削弱了北京溫和派的影響力,而這些人「深知與西方合作才符合中國利益」。

草稿又說,美國亦會孤立自己,因為盟友不願視中國為「經濟和政治敵人」。聯署的專家呼籲採取新政策,讓美國與盟友透過「防衞主導」的姿態,阻止中國的軍事野心;美國亦應與盟友合力「創造一個較開放和繁榮的世界,並給予機會讓中國參與其中」。

信件草稿指出,他們列出「七大建議」,這是簽署者對「中國、美國對中國政策的問題、以及更有效的美國政策」的集體意見。

暫時未知這封公開信的定稿會在何時發出。根據公開信草稿的頁面說明,他們正聯絡更多人聯署,而定稿將交由一份主要報章刊登。

這封信正值美中兩大世界經濟體因一些議題而緊張關係日益升高之際。這些議題包括互相對進口產品課徵報復性關稅、美國起訴大量中國間諜、中國軍事現代化計畫威脅美國在西太平洋地位等。

特朗普和中國國家主席習近平周六在20國集團(G20)於日本大阪舉行高峰會的場邊會面,同意重啟談判。

特朗普:美日安保條約不公平須修改

NOW財經

【Now新聞台】美國總統朗普重申,美日安保條約條文不公平,有必要修改。

特朗普在離開日本,轉往南韓之前召開記者會,總結出席二十國集團峰會成果。他提到美日安保條約,重申要美國單方面承擔日本防衛義務並不公平,認為條約有必要修改。特朗普過往亦曾對條約提出質疑,批評條約不公。

日本共同社的報道指,日美安保條約是兩國關係支柱,展現美國在亞太地區的存在感,認為特朗普質疑條約極其罕見。報道又引述分析指,特朗普從安保方面向日本施壓,意在動搖日本等同盟國之間的貿易談判,日方將確認特朗普的真實意圖,並會試圖迫使他改變看法。

日本政府就指,特朗普與首相安倍晉三星期五舉行首腦會談時,未有就相關議題展開溝通。

貿談利好 GRAND MONTARA首日沽清504伙

文匯報

香港文匯報訊(記者 馬翠媚、梁悅琴)中美重啟經貿磋商,加上特區政府下季賣地的住宅土地供應減少,美聯儲又暗示或減息,投資者以至換樓客置業信心增強,新盤銷情回暖。貼市價推出、主攻三房戶且累收7,800票的日出康城新盤GRAND MONTARA昨開售全盤504伙,消息指,首日全數沽清,套現超過48億元,有大手客斥逾7,000萬元拆飛連掃6伙。

GRAND MONTARA昨日分A、B組揀樓,早上大手客A組報到時間,排隊登記人龍較以往新盤開售稍為遜色,市場消息指A組時段沽出82伙,佔全盤約16%。而下午B組排隊登記情況則相對墟冚,有數百準買家在海港城售樓處樓下等待上樓,人龍絡繹不絕。

黃光耀:投資者佔大手客4成 

發展商會德豐地產常務董事黃光耀表示,GRAND MONTARA大手客A組時段銷售情況理想,買家中投資者佔30%至40%,當中有大手客豪言要買夠10伙下,在A1時段分別抽到頭籌及6號籌的買家斥資7,200萬元連掃6伙,創區內最大手紀錄,另有大手客斥3,000萬連掃3伙3房單位。雖然項目收票不及MONTARA,他指滿意收飛情況,超購紀錄為年內第2高,又指是次項目以3房為主,有別於MONTARA以細單位為主。

GRAND MONTARA全盤504伙,實用面積366至789方呎,平均呎價19,261元,扣除最高22.5%折扣後,平均折實呎價14,928元,折實價572.9萬至1,351萬元 ,當中逾一半單位為三房戶。若全盤沽清,以價單計可套現約61.23億元,折實價約47.46億元。

本月一手成交料1500宗 

中原地產亞太區副主席兼住宅部總裁陳永傑表示,由於GRAND MONTARA 屬鐵路上蓋項目,料吸引不少大手投資者入手作收租用途,而該行有大手客以公司名義斥逾7,000萬元拆飛連掃6伙。他預期,本月一手盤成交量約1,500宗。

美聯物業住宅部行政總裁布少明表示,該行客戶於GRAND MONTARA 出席率達80%,當中有40%屬投資者,較以往一般新盤投資者佔約20%為高,主因投資者預期項目租金回報逾3厘,以及樓價有機會跑贏大市。他亦認為最近兩星期樓市氣氛好轉,主因中美貿易緊張局勢稍為紓緩,加上股市回升,帶動樓市成交,如中美再無重大壞消息傳出,料下半年樓價將趨穩。
新地旗下屯門御半山II期昨開售第三輪38伙,消息指,單日售出13伙,去貨比例逾34%,該盤已累售152伙,套現逾9.5億元。綜合市場消息,全港一手盤昨日售出540伙,比上周六上升1倍。

OMA OMA累收逾800票 

永泰地產旗下屯門掃管笏OMA OMA昨日截票,累收逾800票,以今日公開發售193伙計,超額認購逾3倍。永泰地產發展執行董事兼銷售及市務總監鍾志霖對登記數字表示滿意。該盤今日亦會推出另外36個特色戶招標發售,並同日起至9月底逐日截標。

2019年6月29日 星期六

Trump To Unleash Hell On Europe: EU Announces Channel To Circumvent SWIFT And Iran Sanctions Is Now Operational

美國太霸道, 就來無人同佢玩了 !


www.zerohedge.com

With the world waiting for the first headlines from the Trump-Xi meeting, the most important and unexpected news of the day hit moments ago, when Europe announced that the special trade channel, Instex, that will allow European firms to avoid SWIFT and bypass American sanctions on Iran, is now operational.

Following a meeting between the countries who singed the Iran nuclear deal, also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which was ditched by US, French, British and German officials said the trade mechanism which was proposed last summer and called Instex, is now operational.

As a reminder, last September, in order to maintain a financial relationship with Iran that can not be vetoed by the US, Europe unveiled a "Special Purpose Vehicle" to bypass SWIFT. The mechanism would facilitate transactions between European and Iranian companies, while preventing the US from vetoing the transactions and pursuing punitive measures on those companies and states that defied Trump. The payment balancing system will allow companies in Europe to buy Iranian goods, and vice-versa, without actual money-transfers between European and Iranian banks.

The statement came after the remaining signatures of JCPOA gathered in Vienna for a meeting that Iranian ministry spokesman Abbas Mousavi called  "the last chance for the remaining parties...to gather and see how they can meet their commitments towards Iran."
Until today, Tehran was skeptical about EU's commitment to the deal and threatened to exceed the maximum amount of enriched uranium allowed it by the deal after US had imposed a series of sanctions on the country.

Meanwhile, opponents of Instex - almost exclusively the US - have argued that the mechanism is flawed because the Iranian institution designated to work with Instex, the Special Trade and Finance Instrument, has shareholders with links to entities already facing sanctions from the U.S. 

The announcement sent oil sharply lower, with crude futures falling about $1/bbl in closing minutes before settlement, extending daily loss, as it means Iran now has a fully functioning pathway to receive payment for oil it exports to anyone it chooses.

The announcement will likely send president Trump off the rails, because in late May Bloomberg reported that as part of Trump's escalating battle with "European allies" over the fate of the Iran nuclear accord, he was "threatening penalties against the financial body created by Germany, the U.K. and France to shield trade with the Islamic Republic from U.S. sanctions" including the loss of access to the US financial system.

According to Bloomberg, the Treasury Department’s undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence, Sigal Mandelker, sent a letter on May 7 warning that Instex, the European SPV to sustain trade with Tehran, and anyone associated with it could be barred from the U.S. financial system if it goes into effect.

“I urge you to carefully consider the potential sanctions exposure of Instex,” Mandelker wrote in an ominous letter to Instex President Per Fischer. "Engaging in activities that run afoul of U.S. sanctions can result in severe consequences, including a loss of access to the U.S. financial system."

Germany, France and the U.K. finalized the Instex system in January, allowing companies to trade with Iran without the use of U.S. dollars or American banks, allowing them to get around wide-ranging U.S. sanctions that were imposed after the Trump administration abandoned the 2015 Iran nuclear deal last year.

“This is a shot across the bow of a European political establishment committed to using Instex and its sanctions-connected Iranian counterpart to circumvent U.S. measures,” said Mark Dubowitz, the chief executive officer of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington.

Here is a simpler summary of what just happened: this was the first official shot across the bow of the USD status as a global reserve currency, and not by America's adversaries but by its closest allies. And once those who benefit the most from the status quo openly revolt against it, the countdown to the end of the USD reserve status officially begins.
* * *
When asked to comment on the letter, the Treasury Department issued a statement saying “entities that transact in trade with the Iranian regime through any means may expose themselves to considerable sanctions risk, and Treasury intends to aggressively enforce our authorities.”

The US ire was sparked by the realization - and alarm - that cracks are appearing in the dollar's reserve status, opponents of Instex argue - at least for public consumption purposes - that the mechanism is flawed because the Iranian institution designated to work with Instex, the Special Trade and Finance Instrument, has shareholders with links to entities already facing sanctions from the U.S.

Separately, during a visit to London on May 8, Mike Pompeo also warned that there was no need for Instex because the U.S. allows for humanitarian and medical products to get into Iran without sanction.

“When transactions move beyond that, it doesn’t matter what vehicle’s out there, if the transaction is sanctionable, we will evaluate it, review it, and if appropriate, levy sanctions against those that were involved in that transaction,” Pompeo said. “It’s very straightforward.”

In conclusion, one month ago we said that "In 2018, Europe made a huge stink about not being bound by Trump's unilateral breach of the Iranian deal, and said it would continue regardless of US threats. But now that the threats have clearly escalated, and Washington has made it clear it won't take no for an answer, it will be interesting to see if Europe's resolve to take on Trump - especially in light of the trade war with China - has fizzled. "

The answer, it appears is that Europe felt unexpectedly emboldened, just hours before Trump's meeting with Xi, and that it is ready and willing to call Trump's bluff; it goes without saying, that if the US does indeed retaliate and proceed with sanctions against European banks, than the global trade war is about to turn far, far uglier.

習特會面雙方同意重啟經貿談判 美方不加徵關稅

壞消息中的好消息 !


巴士的報

習特會面80分鐘,達成重要成果。

美國總統特朗普與中國國家主席習近平再次舉行會面,習特會原定於香港時間早上10時30分開始,但最終延遲了約20分鐘,習特會舉行約80分鐘後結束,雙方同意重啟貿易談判。

新華社報道,在6月29日舉行的中美元首會晤中,國家主席習近平和美國總統特朗普同意,中美雙方在平等和相互尊重的基礎上重啟經貿磋商。美方表示不再對中國出口產品加徵新的關稅。兩國經貿團隊將就具體問題進行討論。

預料雙方曾談及華為、貿易等重要議題。

習近平在會晤前稱,一項基本事實始終沒有變,就是中美合則兩利,鬥則俱傷,合作比磨擦好,對話比對抗好。

特朗普說,以往曾認為已接近達成共識,但其後有事發生,倒退了一點,然後又接近了一點,但若雙方能達成公平貿易協議,這一切將成為歷史,美國對達成協議完全持開開放態度,也認為中國亦持開放態度。

巴士的報

美國總統特朗普表示,華為可從美國企業購買零件,又稱,與中國國家主席習近平的會面中,未談及孟晚舟的問題。

特朗普在G20峰會後的記者會指,在中美峰會上有談及中國科技企業華為的問題,美企可繼續向華為銷售零件;但未有提及華為首席財務官孟晚舟在加拿大被扣事宜。

談及中美貿易問題,特朗普指雙方進行良好對話,指美方雖不會撤銷對華貨品關稅,但亦暫時不會額外加徵關稅。他又透露,中方短期內購買大量美國食品及農產品,又說將「交出希望他們購買的物品清單。」特朗普指美方未來將與中國共同合作,希望達成貿易協議。

Austria Sell 100-Year Bonds – But Who Are the Buyers?

www.armstrongeconomics.com

Austria was able to sell its second 100-year bond in history at just a yield of just over 1.00%. Some argue that capital has been forced to buy anything that has a yield which the ECB has been forcing negative interest rates. Why would anyone in their right mind buy a 100-year bond for 1%? The buyers appear to be pension funds who MUST own government debt as a matter of law.

Austria launched the sale of a 100-year bond on Tuesday after overwhelming investor interest gave its debt officials confidence it could become the first Eurozone country to sell a “century” bond publicly through a group of banks. There has been no paper on this part of the yield curve. Because of comments by Draghi, it is also expected that positive yielding paper will vanish in the Eurozone. As it stands, it will take investors 44 years to recoup their original capital. That will surely be a huge loss.

Austria is planning to sell the bonds via syndication to help access a wider base of investors. The banks involved are Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Erste Group, Goldman Sachs, NatWest Markets and Societe Generale. There is a serious problem brewing where as a matter of law pension fund must buy government paper and at low rates, the pension funds face massive failures going into the next 6 years.

2019年6月28日 星期五

2019-06-28



市場變動要睇明天 G20 的結果 !


Gold At Risk Of Sharp Pullback Before Higher Again – David Brady

www.silverdoctors.com

by David Brady via Sprott Money News

Open interest in Gold futures on the COMEX bottomed at 430k contracts on April 30. They have since risen to 526k on June 18. That’s an increase of 96k contracts.

At the same time, the Swaps (aka the “Banks”) have increased their net short position from 37k to 122k, or 85k contracts. This means that a full 88% of the increase in open interest has gone straight to the Banks’ net short position.

Open interest on Tuesday, June 25, closed at 578k, an increase of 52k in just one week. A huge move. Using 88% as a guide for the corresponding increase in the Banks’ net short position, we get an increase of 46k contracts to 168k contracts. While this is just an estimate (it could be higher or lower), this would mean Banks have the biggest net short position since September 2016. It would also be just 23k contracts shy of their record net short position in July 2016, when Gold peaked at 1377 and subsequently fell 253, or 18%, to 1124 in just the next five months.

At the same time, using a similar methodology, the Funds have increased their net long position to 232k contracts. This would be their biggest long position since the peak in September 2017 at 1362 and just 41k contracts below their record long position in July 2016.


While these are estimates and we won’t have the definitive data until tomorrow, they make sense in light of the increase in price from 1351 on June 18 to their peak of 1443 on June 25. Funds tend to chase the price higher by adding longs, something they have done the whole way up from the low of 1267 on May 2. Banks, of course, take the other and add shorts at the same time.

Could we be about to see a repeat of what happened post the summer peak of 2016, when Funds were record long and Banks were record short? Possibly. The Banks are all about making a quick and sizeable profit, and they would like nothing more to squeeze out all of the weak and late longs to this rally.

This weekend we have the G20 and trade negotiations between Trump and Xi. While we don’t know what the outcome is going to be, there is a high risk that the negotiations fail yet again and new tariffs are imposed on $300bln, or the majority of China’s exports to the United States. Should this occur, the Chinese could respond by allowing USD/CNY to rise above the critical 7 threshold relative to the dollar. Unless there is a commensurate rise in XAU/CNY, Gold in dollar terms would fall. Given the size of Funds’ longs and Banks’ shorts, this could be sizeable.

Alternatively, if we’re surprised by some kind of deal, however insubstantial, and the stock market rallies to new highs, expectations for rate cuts from the Fed may subside, causing Gold to fall (and given the relative positioning, fall hard).

Furthermore, next week is the week of the July 4 th holiday in the U.S., when many traders are out of the office on vacation, making it a more illiquid, low volume week. To the extent we get any kind of momentum on the sell side and longs are forced to cover, this could exacerbate the speed and size of any decline in price. Of course, the same could be said on the upside, but given the positioning of the Funds relative to the Banks, history tells us that the risk is greater that we see a significant fall rather than a further rally higher.

Courtesy of Marketwatch.com:


Looking at indicators other than positioning alone, this just reinforces the downside risk. Sentiment is clearly extremely bullish. One just has to spend an hour on Twitter to understand just how bullish everyone is. Money is flowing into Gold ETFs again. If that weren’t enough, Citibank, the second biggest owner of derivatives on the COMEX, second only to JP Morgan, is calling for $1600 Gold. Bloomberg, Reuters, CNBC, and the rest of the mainstream financial media are all cheerleading Gold recently. Sentiment is a contrarian signal. When everyone is bullish, it’s a good sign that the market is going to reverse, even if just a pullback in the short-term, or something much worse. The risk is that everyone is caught wrong-footed, only looking up to higher prices, and the market falls instead.

From a technical perspective, Gold is clearly extremely overbought according to several indicators and across multiple time frames:
  • The daily RSI just peaked at 84, its highest level since February 2016, and is still at 81.
  • The daily MACD Line is now higher than the peak in July 2016, at its highest since March 2016.
  • The weekly RSI is at 77, its highest since the peak at 1923 in August 2011.
  • The weekly MACD Line is at its highest level since September 2016, echoing the positioning data above.
In conclusion, when we consider that Gold is extreme overbought and bullish in conjunction with the extreme positioning data, ahead of the G20 this weekend and an illiquid holiday week, there is a high risk of a pending reversal in Gold after a $276, or near 20%, rally from the low of 1167 in August.

To be clear, having broken key resistance at the 2016 peak of 1377 and 1400 also, we now have a long-awaited higher high, so the trend has turned UP. But an upward trend is defined by higher highs and higher lows. The data suggests we are going to get a healthy pullback to a higher low before the next stage of this rally continues to higher highs.

Support for such a higher low is ~1375, the 38.2% retracement of the entire rally from 1167 to 1443, ~1335, the 61.8% retracement, or ~1270, just above the prior low of 1267.

Silver is likely to fall too, but I expect it to outperform Gold both on the upside and the downside given its superior technicals, sentiment, and positioning data: The Banks are still relatively neutral in Silver.

Gold miners are a beta play on Gold, and one should expect them to decline in tandem with Gold, but to a greater degree in percentage terms, if this scenario plays out.

At the end of the day, if we do get a pullback, and possibly a significant one, I would consider this a gift in anticipation of the rally to follow. Only a break of 1167 would cause me to reconsider the bullish potential for metals and miners going forward. With this in mind, BTFD until proven otherwise, imho.

縮表失敗 金價蠢動

AM730

C觀點: 施永青

近日金價又再蠢蠢欲動,其中一個重要原因是聯儲局似乎已放棄原先的縮表安排,美國經濟看來難走得出不斷舉債的惡性循環。

聯儲局需要縮表,是之前QE太多,導致聯儲局買入了很多債券,聯儲局的資產負債表因而膨脹到一個不正常的水平。為了令美國的貨幣系統可以恢復正常,所以聯儲局要縮表,把手上太多的債券退還給市場。

QE的目的是向市場注入更多的資金,手法是透過向市場買入債券。這樣做生意的人就容易籌集資金去擴充業務。另一方面QE亦可以令消費者容易以較低的利息借錢消費。這樣企業擴充業務後才有回報,經濟才可以有增長。

然而,靠QE製造出來的經濟增長是不正常的,遲早會出事的。所以聯儲局想將市場上過多的資金抽走,令利率可以回復到一個正常一些的水平——不是低到接近負利率,而是升至靠近經濟增長與通貨膨脹的水平。

由QE帶動的經濟增長是人為的。正常的經濟增長應該是有機的,可以透過自體生發不斷延續的。譬如,有人投資一筆錢去做生意,透過工作人員的一番努力後,扣除成本還有錢賺,可以向投資者派股息,可以在來年提升工作人員的待遇。這樣,工作人員可以增加消費,投資者可以增加投資,經濟就可以持續發展。這才是經濟發展的理想模式。聯儲局最希望看到的,是在聯儲局抽走市場過多的資金後,經濟仍可以憑這種正常的模式不斷有機增長。

問題是聯儲局一縮表,市場的資金成本就上升,人們的消費意欲就下降,汽車銷量與房屋交投就隨即下降。產能過剩與庫存過多的問題就立即湧現。經濟前景因而變得黯淡。結果聯儲局不敢再加息,甚至要考慮減息。人們開始懷疑,聯儲局今後繼續縮表的能力。

現實是美國的分配制度不公平,在1比99的情況下,少數富裕階層拿走了經濟增長的主要得益,普羅大眾分不到一杯羹,無力靠自己的收入去增加消費。聯儲局唯有放水讓他們可以借錢消費,以維持民間的需求,讓經濟可以持續發展。

現時,大部分美國人身上除了債務之外,手上都沒有多少現金,要他們拿一千元美金救急也沒有多少人拿得出。他們不借錢就沒法增加消費,但借了錢就不知道何時才有條件還。

不但人民如是,政府亦如是。無論是聯邦政府還是州政府,都欠債纍纍,唯有不斷借新債去還舊債,情況比希臘好不了多少。關鍵是希臘得向外間借錢,別人可能不肯借,借也要收高息;但美國可以靠聯儲局放水,可以長期享受低息貸款。只是長此下去,美國的債務一定會越來越大,永無解決的一天。

為了抒解政府與民間在債務上的負擔,唯有依賴美元的不斷貶值。這樣,美國人就可以趁錢還好使好用的時候借來花,等錢已貶得七七八八的時候才還給債權人,變相以鄰為壑。

正正因為市場發覺聯儲局已沒法縮表,除了走美元貶值的路之外,根本沒有其他選擇,所以只好增持黃金,希望可以減低美元貶值所帶來的損失。

【G20峰會】習特會前先「過招」

高手過招 !


NOW財經

【Now新聞台】二十國集團(G20)峰會在日本大阪開幕。

峰會東道主日本首相安倍晉三跟一眾與會領袖拍攝大合照,之後舉行工作午餐會,今屆峰會其中一個焦點議題是推動自由貿易,以及制定數碼經濟規則。

國家主席習近平強調,要捉緊數碼經濟發展機遇,需營造公平公正,非歧視市場環境。美國總統特朗普則再度提醒各國,發展5G網絡時必須審慎。

收市速遞:恒指跌78點收28542 成交717億元

星島日報

港股下跌,恒指收報28542,跌78點或0.28%;國企指數收報10881,降15點或0.14%;紅籌指數收報4446,跌3點或0.07%,成交金額717.83億元。

十大成交金額股份方面,騰訊(00700)跌0.06%,收報352.6元;建行(00939)逆市漲0.75%,收報6.73元;中國平安(02318)微跌0.27%,收報93.8元;友邦保險(01299)倒升0.06%,收報84.25元;美團點評(03690)無升跌,收報68.5元;盈富基金(02800)跌0.34%,收報29.1元;小米集團(01810)無起跌,收造10元;招商銀行(03968)跌1.14%,收報38.95元;港交所(00388)下滑0.43%,收報275.8元;工行(01398)升0.35%,收報5.7元。(sl)

【逃犯條例】浸大副校直指 連串示威屬「顏色革命」

星島日報

浸會大學協理副校長楊志剛昨日在報章以「『洋紫荊革命』的白手和黑手」為題撰文,直指近日針對修訂《逃犯條例》的一連串示威實屬「顏色革命」。

楊志剛指出,近日在港發生的大規模示威行動,「放諸世界任何地方,都足以宣布進入緊急狀態並調動軍隊維持秩序」。他續指,綜合影片所見,在連串大規模示威中,「有極少數人隱藏於人群之中,然後像收到信號似的突然同時發難,衝擊時身手敏捷,行動利落,面對警方鐵馬一躍即過,擲磚時手法純熟,衝擊時冷靜兇狠,攻擊完畢便迅速從人群中消失。他們絕非我日常在大學遇見的學生,亦非我平時在街頭地鐵遇到的港青。」質疑那些人是誰?有何背景?

楊志剛在文章中點明:「以預謀的挑撥對立,從而引起大規模的自發行動,然後是預謀和自發有機結合,使這次抗爭有了自己的生命力,遍地開花,這是顏色革命的一貫套路。」

他還引述研究顏色革命的暨南大學新聞與傳播學院吳非教授指出:「『現在改變政權已經不是西方國家……的目的,因為風險太大,顏色革命已經成為西方國家與爭議國家談判的底牌。』這是香港身處的大背景。」楊志剛認為,西方勢力已公開把香港變成和中國交手的底牌之一。

Universal Basic Income & Gaming the System

 社會福利的濫用 !


www.armstrongeconomics.com

COMMENT:

I was just reading your post, Universal Basic Income, and I feel the need to respond. I have always worked, always found whatever work I could. I have worked on market stalls and also on installation of Active Directory in a government institution. I managed to graduate with honours from uni. I am now retirement age. I brought my children up single handed and have never had any wealth but I have to point out that people who are living in poverty don’t automatically become criminal. There’s so much talk about playing the system, but we have to ask why so many people need support. It’s because industry has disappeared and we have developed a class system where the difference between haves and have nots has widened. I live in UK and it’s an industrial wasteland, we had jobs to go around not all that long ago but now there are none for the majority, except in self-policing call centres. It isn’t due to population increase alone, there is nothing for us. Closing the pits was a mistake. There’s no significant increase of carbon and when it becomes Cold which it will in a few years, we’ll be scratching for surface coal to cook and be warm, trees will be decimated. We import things that we used to make, steel, textiles etc, and we gave away our ship building and our fishing waters. Governments are using surveillance to protect themselves from our scrutiny of them, and putting the blame on the people for everything they have done wrong. I know this is simplistic but this is my perspective.

K

REPLY:

I place most of the blame on Socialism. The unions became greedy and abused their power. New York City was once the major port. They chased all the shipping out to other ports who were more competitive. Today, no ships go to New York City. Then add the greed of politicians. Before World War II, yes the woman stayed home and raised the kids and managed the house. I knew European men who married Eastern European girls when the wall came down and they retained those old values and did not understand they were expected to go out and work. Taxes kept increasing so today, women lost the right to stay home and raise the kids. It now takes TWO incomes to do what one used to do prewar. In Europe, you pay unbelievable taxes not just on income, then 20% VAT on average. Taxes lower the standard of living for you will NEVER get your money’s worth in service in return.

As they say, the road to hell is paved with good intentions. If you create a network with social services, there will ALWAYS be people who game the system. Prisons have plenty of doctors for Medicare fraud in the USA submitting bills for people that did not exist.

Julius Caesar also confronted the abuse of welfare rolls in ancient Rome. He conducted a census and found that out of 320,000 pretend people getting free bread, only 150,000 were real.

“Caesar changed the old method of registering voters: he made
the City landlords help him to complete the list, street by street,
and reduced from 320,000 to 150,00 the number of
householders who might draw free grain. To do away with the
nuisance of having to summon everyone for enrolment
periodically, he made the praetors keep their register up to date
by replacing the names of the dead men with those of others
not yet listed.”

(Suetonius, The Twelve Caesars, Julius Caesar 41,3)
(Penguin Classics ed., translation by Robert Graves)

Therefore, people have been gaming the system for thousands of years. It is just part of human nature.

【料出價保守】七啟德待售地皮被削估值5%

NOW財經

【Now新聞台】會德豐表示,將會入標下月中截標的啟德地皮。此外,有測量師下調待售的七幅啟德地皮估值約5%。

華潤置地夥拍保利置業投得的啟德第4C區1號住宅地皮,每平方呎地價較上月批出的啟德地皮低近9%,但無損發展商對下月中截標啟德地皮的興趣。

已在舊機場跑道內投得三幅地皮的會德豐,對市況看法樂觀,更表明會入標下月中截標的啟德地皮。

不過,有測量師下調七幅待售啟德地皮估值,由年初合共最高1030億元,下調至介乎約870億至980億元。

下月中截標的啟德4A區1號住宅地皮,屬於機場跑道區內暫時推出招標的最大型地皮,最高可建樓面面積逾100萬平方呎,其中逾30000平方呎樓面須用作社福設施。

2019年6月27日 星期四

李小龍Bruce Lee為華為全球首款5G手機發聲

巴士的報

李小龍為獲得中國首張5G許可證的華為手機Mate 20 X發聲,並指出更加眾不同之處在於這也是全球首款支持5G雙卡手機。

大家在搞清楚什麼是5G雙卡模式之前,大概很有興趣知道這位洋名Bruce Lee的李小龍是什麼來頭。原來這位活躍於國內手機界的科技人,是華為手機產品線副總裁,畢業於華南理工大學。至於雙卡是指Mate 20 X支持「非獨立組網」(NSA, Non-Standalone)和「獨立組網」(SA, Standalone)兩種模式。

華為李小龍表示, Mate 20 X支援SA/NSA 雙模5G網絡的同時,也相容4G、3G、2G多重網絡制式,這是世界獨一無二的雙卡手機,其他的只能做到單卡。目前,率先推出5G商用的韓國和美國所用的都是NSA,這是一個可稱為「快捷簡潔」版本,發射基站是以4G核心網為基礎,加建5G上去。由於是「加建」的,所以功能未能達到最高要求,只用來下載電影、打電遊問題不大,應用在真正的5G場景,就難以勝任。

李小龍為用戶進行5G知識科普︰「在5G NSA組網方式下,運營商可以4G 、5G共用核心網,節省網絡投資,但缺點是無法支援低延時等5G新特性。而且手機在NSA網絡下需要同時連接4G和5G網路,耗電也比SA網絡為高。為節省開支,部分運營商會在5G建網初期採用NSA方式,但SA才是5G的最終演進方向。」

為什麼SA才是最終的5G方向?因為5G將是萬物智聯的全新時代,是進入「第四代工業革命」的超級公路,搭載一個世代的變更,這裡將實現智慧城市、智能化工廠,交通、醫療、商業、教育等可藉由5G躍進到無人化、遙控化階段。中國聯通總經理李國華日前表示︰「5G不是簡單的升級換代,也是世界數位化時代的全新機遇。早前國家發佈5G牌照,標誌2019年是中國5G商用元年,5G發牌後將帶動經濟總產出1.5萬億美元。」

令美國和歐洲工業強國感到不適應的《中國製造2025》,實際就是利用十年時間讓中國邁入「第四次工業革」的計劃,由於中國目前擁有一定程度的5G領先優勢,加上全力發展的人工智能(AI),中國有望率先進入工業新世代,除了增加數以十萬億計美元經濟產出、直接製造數以百萬計高級工作職位之外,更重要的是基於「贏者全取成果」的高科技遊戲規律下,美國一旦被中國「彎位超車」的話,就會做成財富與領先地位的「雙失」,是以美國力阻這個現象出現。

儘管中美仍未達成一個合作雙贏的協議,科技戰的對抗氣氛依然高漲,不過,除華為推出象徵性的首款5G雙卡模式手機之外,工信部最近也發放首個視頻宣傳片《未來已來,The Future is now》,預告中國明天的5G生活。總的來說,中方的5G保持樂觀和正能量,完全無形化解美國的科技極限施壓。華為李小龍在微博如是說︰「這是一個最艱難的時代,也是一個最好的時代!」

深藍

恒生東亞取消低結餘戶口收費

文匯報

香港文匯報訊(記者 馬翠媚)繼三大發鈔行取消個人戶口低結餘收費後,恒生、東亞銀行昨亦跟隊取消。

恒生銀行昨宣佈,由8月起取消優進理財、綜合戶口,以及個人港元儲蓄戶口的低結餘服務月費,同時取消ATM 存摺或結單儲蓄戶口現時轉賬及現金提款櫃位服務費每項20元,以及取消所有個人戶口客戶每曆月透過分行櫃位辦理多於50宗交易每宗收30元的戶口交易費。

東亞銀行亦宣佈,由8月起取消一般個人賬戶及i-Account現時每日平均理財總值若低於5,000元分別被收取60元及50元月費,然而顯卓理財及至尊理財賬戶的每日平均理財總值要求及服務月費不變。

【遊日注意】熱帶低氣壓橫掃日本 G20峰會或受影響

星島日報

20國集團領導人陸續抵達日本大阪,日本氣象廳預測,九州東南面一個熱帶低氣壓逐漸增強成熱帶風暴,並預料從西向東橫掃日本四國、本州地區。大阪28、29日將舉行G20峰會,大阪今晚至明日早上的風勢和雨勢將會增強,可能對大阪交通産生影響。

日本西部多處已經出現狂風大雨,在岐阜縣下午更出現龍捲風。日本氣象廳表示,熱帶低氣壓下午集結在九州東南面海域,中心最高持續風速為時速54公里,預料以每小時45公里向東北偏北移動,並逐漸增強成熱帶風暴,預料今晚最接近四國、關西地區,明日橫掃東京一帶關東地區,趨向日本東面太平洋。

日本氣象廳發出大雨警報及土砂災害警報,呼籲民眾警惕因暴雨導致的山泥傾瀉、水浸及山洪暴發,提醒注意強風和大浪。

收市速遞:恒指升399點收28621 成交784億元

星島日報

港股上升,恒指收報28621,升399點或1.42%;國企指數收報10897,漲131點或1.22%;紅籌指數收報4449,升55點或1.25%,成交金額784.31億元。

十大成交金額股份方面,騰訊(00700)升1.09%,收報352.8元;建行(00939)升1.67%,收報6.68元;中國平安(02318)漲0.86%,收報94.05元;美團點評(03690)急升6.45%,收報68.5元;盈富基金(02800)漲1.57%,收報29.2元;金沙中國(01928)上揚3.16%,收報37.5元;友邦保險(01299)升1.94%,收報84.2元;招行(03968)反彈1.94%,收報39.4元;中行(03988)升1.23%,收報3.29元;中煙香港(06055)急升5.98%,收報10.98元。(ky)

《泰晤士》全球年輕大學排名 科大蟬聯榜首

星島日報

英國《泰晤士高等教育》雜誌公布最新的世界年輕大學排名,以5大範疇共13個指標,評核創立50年或以下的大學,上榜大學增至逾350所,來自60個國家及地區,本港3所大學躋身全球20強。當中科技大學蟬聯榜首,城市大學和理工大學分別排第5及15位;澳門大學、中國南方科技大學亦位列百大,後者更是首次參與排名。

《泰晤士高等教育全球年輕大學排名榜》按教學環境、研究、論文引用影響力、國際視野和知識轉移5大範疇、共13個指標,如研究數量、收入和聲譽等,評核創立50年或以下的大學,結果今晨揭盅,來自全球60個國家或地區、共351所大學上榜,較去年250所為多。

本港3所大學榜上有名,當中科大在國際視野及論文引用影響力兩大範疇,得分均逾90分,研究範疇得分連續兩年全球第一,力壓瑞士洛桑聯邦理工學院及新加坡南洋理工大學,令科大繼去年再次位列榜首。校方回應稱,一向視排名為參考,以助了解學校的表現,掌握需要完善的地方;又指將一如既往,不斷求進,以提供優質教育及創新科研。

城大排第5位,較去年升2位,校方表示會以教研合一的理念,推動科研創新,培育人才,貢獻社會,實力獲得國際肯定,希望各界繼續給予支持;理大由全球第18位,連升3位至全球第15位,校方對排名感高興,認為學校在教學與研究工作上的努力得到認同,未來將繼續努力不懈,精益求精。

首次參與評核的中國南方科技大學,排第55位,論文引用影響力得分接近90分;澳門大學由去年第60位升至今年第52位,是澳門唯一上榜的大學。韓國有4所大學上榜,其中韓國科學技術院及浦項工科大學保持去年的排名,分別排第6及第8位。

最新英國《泰晤士高等教育》全球最佳年輕大學榜10大

1)香港科技大學
2)瑞士洛桑聯邦理工學院
3)新加坡南洋理工大學
4)法國巴黎文理研究大學
5)香港城市大學
6)南韓科學技術院
7)意大利聖安娜高等研究學院
8)南韓浦項工科大學
9)法國索邦大學
10)荷蘭馬斯特里赫特大學

華為推昆侖量子計算 絞殺微軟與英特爾聯盟

巴士的報

美國一邊加強對中國的科技禁制,華為就一邊推出新科技,繼5G通訊領域,最新發布是昆侖量子計算,意圖爭取新一世代電腦的主導權。

華為公布速度比傳統電腦更快、應用層面更廣的昆侖量子計算技術,並已經製作出產品原型,華為還提供一個量子程式設計框架和一個圖形化使用者介面,為生產量子電腦作好準備。若如順利成推出,對傳統的個人電腦(PC)技術產生重大衝擊。

上世紀80年代,PC產業為微軟的視窗作業系統,配合英特爾的芯片,一軟一硬的Wintel (Windows + Intel)架構控制,直到2000年移動互聯網興起,智能手機使用普及,PC地位一跌再跌再跌,兩大公司被新興互聯網公司的光芒掩蓋。不過,進入5G通訊時代,個人電腦又出現生機,微軟與英特爾又積極走在一起,希望藉5G高速連網功能,打造全新的「5G個人電腦」概念。早前傳言,為阻止華為染指PC領域,微軟和英特爾將加入美國禁制行動,封鎖華為產品使用WinTel。據悉,華為最新筆記簿型電腦Matebook被迫擱置推出,Wintel似乎重拾當年聲威。

 Wintel在國內又叫「文泰來」聯盟,名稱大有來頭,是來自習近平的講話。話說2016年4月19日,習近平發表題為《在網絡安全和資訊化工作座談會上的講話》文章,指導國家科技發展方向,他首先點出中國的不利處境所在︰「核心技術受制於人是我們最大的隱患。一個互聯網企業即便規模再大、市值再高,如果核心元器件嚴重依賴外國,供應鏈的『命』掌握在別人手裡,那就好比在別人的牆基上砌房子,再大再漂亮也可能經不起風雨,甚至會不堪一擊。」

習近平馬上提到微軟與英特爾的存在︰「我們同國際先進水準在核心技術上差距懸殊,一個很突出的原因,是我們的骨幹企業沒有像微軟、英特爾、谷歌、蘋果那樣形成協同效應。美國有個所謂的『文泰來』聯盟,微軟的視窗作業系統只配對英特爾的芯片。在核心技術研發上,強強聯合比單打獨鬥效果要好,要在這方面拿出些辦法來,徹底擺脫部門利益和門戶之見的束縛。」

習近平希望中國也有一個強強式的組合,如WinTel一樣,掌握往後的核心技術,不必再受制於人。這方面華為很配合,從4G開始就立定決心擁有自主技術,與此同時,低調著手研發芯片和操作系統的所謂「備胎」方案,符合習近平提出的「提防隱患」精神。想不到的是邁進5G時代不久,美國針對中國的科技戰打響,全面技術封鎖殺到來,幸好華為早有準備,所以是役沒有如中興去年被美國技術封鎖的狼狽,反而陸續有「估你唔到」的驚喜性反擊。

 關於華為昆侖量子計算細節未有全面公布,幾時推出、幾時量產也沒有進一步透露。即使華為是擺空城計,但已經做到與美國針鋒相對,達到「輸人不輸陣」的進取態勢。

深藍

2019年6月26日 星期三

恒生銀行取消戶口最低結餘服務月費等收費

星島日報

繼三大發鈔銀行取消最低結餘的收費後,恒生銀行亦宣布,自8月1日起取消優進理財、綜合戶口以及個人港元儲蓄戶口的低結餘服務月費。

恒生銀行取消「優進理財」客戶的全面理財總值5萬至20萬元的30元月費、5萬元以下的120元月費;取消綜合戶口客戶的全面理財總值1萬元以下的60元月費;取消港元存摺或結單儲蓄戶口每日平均結餘少於5000元的50元月費;

另外,恒生銀行取消ATM存摺或結單儲蓄戶口現時每項20元的轉賬及現金提款櫃位服務費;以及所有個人客戶現時每月透過分行櫃位辦理多於50宗交易,所收取的每宗30元交易費。

恒生執行董事兼零售銀行及財富管理業務主管關穎嫺表示,大部分個人銀行客戶,將可受惠於有關收費的取消。

收市速遞:恒指升36點收28221 成交648億元

星島日報

港股上升,恒指收報28221,升36點或0.13%;國企指數收報10766,漲23點或0.22%;紅籌指數收報4394,跌2點或0.06%,成交金額648.35億元。

十大成交金額股份方面,騰訊(00700)跌0.11%,收報349元;建行(00939)升0.92%,收報6.57元;工行(01398)跌0.18%,收報5.6元;招行(03968)反彈0.39%,收報38.65元;中國平安(02318)漲0.65%,收報93.25元;盈富基金(02800)漲0.17%,收報28.75元;友邦保險(01299)升0.24%,收報82.6元;美團點評(03690)升1.18%,收報64.35元;錦欣生殖(01951)收造9.78元,升5.39%;中國移動(00941)漲0.14%,收報70.3元。(ky)

【大灣區專線】惠州「軟」、「硬」兼施吸港專才

NOW財經

【Now新聞台】位於大灣區邊陲的惠州,有不少港資廠商在當地設廠生產。有廠商表示,中央及香港政府援助及支持企業創新轉型。

惠州與廣州、深圳及東莞連接,並有「粵東門戶」之稱,是大灣區9+2城市中佔地第二大,不少港商在當地設廠。

一間去年4月被上市公司建滔集團收購的電子廠,主要客戶包括惠而浦及西門子等。

公司表示,中央支持企業技術研發項目,加上港府協助港資廠商增加資源,提升自動化設備,以達致升級轉型目標。

建業科技電子董事何建芬表示,隨著大灣區發展,當地及鄰近城市的交通配套發展會更便利,增加惠州的優勢,相信有助吸引更多香港人才到當地工作。

嘉湖山莊3房655萬成交

星島日報

中原區域營業經理伍耀祖表示,天水圍嘉湖山莊美湖居5座高層B室,面積623方呎,採3房套房間隔,以655萬沽出,呎價10514元。

原業主於1999年1月以238.1萬買入單位,是次轉手帳面獲利416.9萬,單位20年內升值約1.8倍。

他又指,由於近日中美貿易戰及政治事件等不明朗因素漸散,買家入市意欲增,加上不少業主願意增加議價空間,刺激嘉湖山莊下旬交投加快,本月累計錄得30宗成交,並已超越上月同期23宗成交。

VERY IMPORTANT WEEK FOR GOLD: Where Is The Price Heading?

文章說金價的阻力/支持位在:  $1,050, $1360, $1,550 (or $1,600), and $1,800


如果依家見1400回吐後可以企穩 1360, 就下一個升勢會去到 1550-1600  !


www.silverdoctors.com

by Steve St Angelo of SRSrocco Report

What happens to the gold price this week will likely set the trend for the foreseeable future.  While many precious metals investors disregard technical analysis and key chart formations, you can bet your bottom dollar that large traders and institutions are watching the price action of the yellow metal quite carefully.  And if you think that these large traders and institutions don’t believe in market intervention, then you are sadly mistaken.

The entire market is rigged, so we should get past the notion that only the gold and silver prices are controlled. Furthermore, one of the reasons that the gold and silver prices have languished over the past 5+ years has to do with the “Grand Trading Market Casino.” For example, one of the new trendy stocks is ROKU.

ROKU, a TV streaming platform company, has seen its stock price surge from $26 to $105 over the past six months.  That’s a 300% increase from the December 2018 lows.  Why would anyone want to mess around with gold, that may go up or down 5-10%, when you can make triple-digit gains on ROKU?

As we can see, ROKU enjoyed two extensive BREAKOUTS during the days of positive earnings release.  When these positive earnings releases occurred at key technical levels, the stock price shot up 15-20% in a single day.  You will also notice how ROKU is trading off the upward blue channel (blue dashed lines).

There is no coincidence that ROKU is trading this way.

Moreover, ROKU is trading close to 10 million shares a day, the same as the GLD ETF.  So, traders, hedge funds, and institutions are focusing on stocks like ROKU because the share price action is providing excellent returns in a very short period of time. It doesn’t matter that the markets are rigged, or that central banks are providing trillions of dollars of liquidity.  What matters to those who play in these markets, are the NICE RETURNS that can be made in the “Grand Market Casino.”

While ROKU’s stock is certainly hitting all-time highs, the company still hasn’t made a profit in the past four years.  Of course, Wall Street analysts say not to worry because it will take the company 5+ years to be profitable.  But what if that fifth or sixth year takes place during the next big recession??  Just look what happened to ROKU’s stock from October to Dec 24th, 2018.  Do you honestly believe ROKU’s financials and revenues fell that much to push the stock down by 65% in three months??  No, ROKU’s share got BUSHWACKED because the entire market was in freefall.  That is, until the central banks came to the rescue.
Unfortunately, for many investors, ROKU is just another high-tech over-valued stock that will crash along with the markets when the lousy economic fundamentals finally kick in.

And what about the recent IPO of Beyond Meat (BYND)?  The stock price opened at $25 on May 2nd and reached $200 on June 19th, less than two months later.  Talk about a COOL 700% return in a lousy seven weeks.  Again, why on earth would investors pay attention to the precious metals market when they can get rich on stocks like ROKU and BYND??

These crazy stock prices become even more insane when we compare them to “Real companies.”  How does Beyond Meat’s present stock price of $154, based on Q1 2019 total revenues of pitiful $40 million compare to Tyson Foods trading at $79 a share with $40 billion in Q1 2019 revenues?  Where is the fundamental logic behind Beyond Meat’s valuation????  There isn’t any.  But, the flow of funds focused on high-flying stocks in the market keep investors from paying much attention to gold… up until now.

So, getting back to gold.  The problem with many precious metals investors is that they don’t believe technical analysis works in a rigged market.  What they fail to understand is that most participants in the market realize that central bank intervention is taking place.  It’s not a state secret any more.

However, there is some METHOD to the MADNESS when it comes to the gold price action over the past 40 years.  Here is a monthly chart of the gold price going back until 1981:

Now, there is no coincidence that gold enjoyed a nice BREAKOUT in 2007 when it finally surpassed the long-term $700+ resistance level.  And then when gold surpassed the $1,000 level, it had another BREAKOUT to $1,400. Of course, there were important “Fundamental factors” that pushed gold above that $700 level, but when it finally surpassed it, it shot up to $1,000 quite quickly.

If we look at the 20-year gold monthly chart, we can see some interesting trends:

After gold surged to $1,900, like with all stocks, it experienced a typical correction. Normally, stocks will correct back down to prior support-resistance levels.  After gold fell back to the $1,350-$1,360 level in 2013, it continued lower to $1,050.  Now, once again, there is no coincidence that the gold price bottomed at $1,050 in late 2015 right at the very same level it that peaked in 2008.  You can see that black dashed line at $1,050.  Furthermore, the Ascending Triangle baseline (blue dashed line) was another bottoming area for gold when both key technical levels converged.

However, the technical $1,050 level where gold bottomed was also based on fundamental data on the gold production cost.  At that time, the top gold miners were producing gold at $1,025-$1,100 an ounce.  The declining production gold cost was due to the oil price falling to a low of $26 from a high of $110 in 2011.  So, technical analysis in the chart also provided a clue as to the bottom in the gold price.

If we look at the weekly gold chart, we can see the Key Technical levels:

It has been more than five years since the gold price reached $1,400.  So, it’s an important milestone. According to gold’s price action, the important technical levels are $1,050, $1360, $1,550 (or $1,600), and $1,800.  There is a reason the gold price has traded off these technical levels.  Traders and institutions are trained to use these technical levels as a guide.

So, are the central banks using these technical levels to control the gold price?  Likely.  However, when the fundamentals of the market get to the point where the central banks are no longer able to keep the gold price capped under a certain level, like the Fed announcing interest rate cuts, then the traders, hedge funds, and institutions in the market take over.  And when the gold price surpasses certain key technical levels, then BREAKOUTS occur.

IMPORTANT NOTE:  Years ago, I did not pay attention to Technical Analysis, so I did not understand the value of these key technical levels or how to spot them.  Even though gold will become one of the best assets to own in the future, its price rise will likely take place at these key technical levels, regardless if precious metals investors believe it or not.

For gold to continue a BULLISH TREND, it will need to close above the $1,360 level at the end of the month, shown in the top two charts.  If it closes below that $1,360 level, then it will just take more time for the trend to push above that level for an extended period.  But, if we do see continued buying of gold next week, then we will likely be in a new Bull Market for gold.

The last chart is the Gold Daily Chart.  It clearly shows how gold shot above that critical $1,360 level:

While gold is overbought on the Daily chart (shown at the top right part of the chart, 81 RSI), it isn’t on the first Monthly gold chart above.  Even if the gold price falls to the $1,370-$1,380 range by the end of the week, that could still be a positive sign, because it’s still above the key $1,360 by the end of the month.

If we continue to see more “Iran War News” in the media this week, the gold price may head to the $1,410-$1,425+ level.  Regardless, for gold to finally break above its 5-year $1,360 is a crucial milestone for traders and investors.  A significant close above $1,360 for June could be very Bullish for the yellow metal.

Lastly, if we do see gold close above the key level and move higher in July, it will likely retest the $1,360 level before doing so.  Then look for the next technical level of $1,550-$1,600 for gold to find serious resistance.

In conclusion, technical analysis provides traders, hedge funds, and institutions, key levels to focus on.  When these technical levels are breached, either to the upside or downside, then we can see significant movement in the price action. So, for gold to head to $2,000 and higher, it will likely do so in and around these key technical levels.

Chris Vermeulen: Next Bull And Bear Markets Are Now Set-Up

Chris Vermeulen  預測今年金價升, 股市跌 !


www.silverdoctors.com

by Chris Vermeulen of The Technical Traders

Sharing market analysis and my opinions every day is far from easy and sometimes I feel like a song on repeat. My focus and goal has always been to try to alert fellow traders and investors of what is unfolding now in the financial markets around the globe because it appears we are about to experience another financial life-changing event much like the 2000 stock market top, and the late 2007 bull market top which will play out over the next 24+ months

If you lost money during the last bear market then you need a new game plan to take advantage of falling prices and the solution is not just to by gold, silver, and miners. In fact, you could lose a lot buying and holding them over the next year if you are not careful. We all know what the precious metals sector did during the last equities bear market (they crashed 64% with the stock market before starting to rally).

From a technical analysis standpoint, we are still a long ways away from a confirmed bear market. We do need a see a rather larger drop to break the December low we saw in the SP500 index. But, each month more warning signs pop up to confirm we would be in a full-blown bear market by the end of 2019.

MINERS ARE OUTPERFORMING US EQUITIES – TOP IS NEAR!


Last month I talked about how I have been waiting for gold miners to start outperforming the US stocks market. Once miners start outperforming in a big way (just like we saw in 2007), we know the stock market is topping out and something really bad is about to happen.

In the last couple of weeks, the gold miners index is up over 16% while the SP500 is up only 6%, this feels like the start-of-the-end if you know what I mean.

It’s a known fact that stock market prices lead earnings, news, and the economy. Stock prices start to flatten, chop sideways, and sell off typically 3-6 months or more before negative data starts to become daily headline news.

I have been predicting a top for form since early 2018 with the book I co-authored called “The Crash of 2019 and 2020 – How You Can Profit” only available to subscribers of the Wealth Building Newsletter.

近親轉讓物業對按揭的影響

信報財經新聞

自2016年11月起,政府提高住宅買賣印花稅至樓價15%,由於稅率偏高,措施推出後,市場關注的是什麼情況下可豁免繳交新稅率。當中香港首置人士仍可以舊稅率支付印花稅,即第二標準稅率;而漸漸受市場關注的是近親轉讓物業的稅項豁免,不論近親是否已持有物業,近親即配偶、父母、子女、兄弟姊妹之間轉讓物業業權,不但豁免額外印花稅,亦只需繳交稅率較低的舊印花稅。

近親轉讓物業的豁免方式逐漸被市場解讀為一個避稅方法,例子是買家已擁有一個住宅物業,他想再買物業作為長線投資或收租之用,根據現行稅制,他需為新購物業繳付新印花稅率15%;但他先把自己市值800萬元的唯一物業轉讓予近親,自己再以首置客身份入市另一個價值1000萬元單位,買家需付的印花稅總共是近親轉讓物業的印花稅及新購物業的印花稅,同以首置印花稅率3.75%計算,總數是67.5萬元,若不先轉讓物業回復首置身份,以新稅率計算的新購物業印花稅便是150萬元。透過以上方法,買家省回稅項共82.5萬元,達樓價的8.25%;買家更可重覆以相同方法入市,即是再轉讓物業予近親,再回復首置買家身份購買物業。

從以上例子看來,似乎令人聯想近親轉讓是否一個措施漏洞,讓買家可以透過此方法避開繳付新印花稅率;但實際上,基於按揭借款的限制,以及轉讓物業予近親的風險,透過此方法慳稅的買家佔比不大。若然上述例子的買家資金實力非常雄厚,交易不涉及按揭上會,他確實可以多次透過近親轉讓物業的方式節省相當多的稅項。

不過,實際上,對於一般買家需要借取按揭完成交易而言,雖然買家可以轉讓物業予近親,惟一般情況下買家仍然是該物業的供款人,那麼買家已有按揭在身,新購物業的貸款便會成為二套房按揭,即使以首置身份買入單位,按揭成數仍需降低一成,而壓力測試下的供款佔入息比率上限亦需降低10個百分點,兩層樓加起的每月總供款增加但壓力測試要求提高,買家需要很充裕還款能力及足夠首期資金方可上會完成交易。

再者,近親轉讓物業涉及家庭成員的共識及對他們的信賴,買家亦需承擔相關風險,例如家庭糾紛、真正收益分配等問題。由於新舊印花稅率的差距確實太大,故此在某程度上透過此方法減省稅項亦似乎是無可厚非。而此方法更加有利於資金財力雄厚的買家,故此亦開始有人提出是否應在豁免方式加以修訂,例如是限制次數及轉讓時間等。

另一款近親轉讓方式涉及除名,印花稅措施推出前,夫婦愛聯名買入物業以共同擁有業權,但現時來說便等如少了一個首置買家的身份配額,故此近年漸多除名個案出現,即是原本是夫婦或近親聯名的物業,透過轉讓一半或有關分額的業權,把單位轉為一人名持有,例如太太買入丈夫佔50%的業權,物業由太太持有,丈夫則回復首置身份。

由於除名只涉及轉讓一半或有關分額的業權,故此印花稅的計算方式只是以有關業權分額的市值計算舊印花稅,例如物業市值600萬元,夫婦轉讓一半業權即只需以300萬元計算較低的舊印花稅率1.5%,繳付4.5萬元便可讓丈夫回復首置身份再入市。這種近親轉讓除名方式在市場上的個案較多,因為主要涉及夫婦之間決定,較為容易處理,印花稅亦只需一半。

王美鳳
中原按揭經紀董事總經理

半契樓按揭難

信報財經新聞

聯名買樓方式分為聯權共有(Joint Tenancy)或分權共有(Tenancy in Common),以往兩夫婦愛以聯權共有方式持有物業,俗稱長命契,兩夫婦共同擁有業權,將來如果其中一方先離世,另一半可自動擁有全部業權。

分權共有並不相同,兩位或以上業主可按照訂立的業權份額持有物業,例如是兩人各佔一半業權,三人以三、三、四比例又或均等比例分配業權,萬一有其中一位業主離世,業權不會自動轉移至其他業主,而是根據遺產承辦或遺囑處理業權。

不過,在現行稅制下,現時很多夫婦都改以單人名持有物業,以便保留另一半的首置身份再購入物業。

業主若以分權共有方式持有物業,原則上可自由處理有關業權份額的轉讓,所以較多時由兄弟姊妹、親戚、朋友共同持有物業,萬一意見分歧,業主之間亦可對於所持業權份額擁有決定權。若果幾位業主未能達成共識一致同意賣出單位,其中一方卻決定出售自己持有的業權份額,又或其中一位業主以自己的業權份額抵押予財務公司,以獲取貸款,但最終因拖欠還款而遭財務公司拍賣業權份額,這類承接部分業權的交易,市場稱為半契樓或碎契樓買賣。

一般來說,半契樓或碎契樓成交價只能低於市值,折讓幅度可達兩至三成,驟眼看十分「着數」,但潛在風險卻甚大。半契樓的賣方一般無法提供樓契,由於沒有完整樓契可作抵押,銀行不會願意提供按揭貸款,故此買家基本上需有足夠資金全數支付樓價。那麼轉投財務公司借貸樓款又是否可行?部分財務公司或會承接這類半契樓貸款,但信貸高風險較高的關係,利息約達10厘以上,若買家未能拿掐何時可清還貸款,入市成本相當高。

購買半契樓一般為投資人士,主要是心儀其價格明顯低於市值,但由於買家只有半份樓契又或碎契如三分一或四分一業權,買家需要找得擁有餘下業權的業主並達成共識,方可出售單位,又或商談出租單位的租金分配。

除了半契樓,市場上亦有俗稱無契樓或缺契樓,意思是業主已遺失整份或部分樓契,又或賣方在交易過程中不會向買方提供樓契,例如是沒有樓契在手的財務公司因業主拖欠還款而拍賣單位。無契樓的買家雖然未能從賣方取得樓契正本,但由於各項物業相關契約一般會在土地註冊處登記,業主可委託律師透過宣誓而申請補回核證副本。

無契樓與半契樓的分別是,無契樓的買家是購買物業全部業權,若然取得完整的樓契核證副本,個別銀行仍會接受按揭申請,但當中的按揭息率及條件較遜色;然而,部分銀行仍然難以接受補契物業,尤其若銀行未能確定補回的樓契是否完整,擔心業權有瑕疵;又或即使補回的樓契已齊全,但亦有銀行乾脆認為業權不屬完好而拒絕承按。

購買半契樓並非獲得全部業權,買家即使買下部分業權亦未有全權處置物業,包括居住權及出租物業等,例如單位已由其他業權人居住,新買家基本上難以取得居住權,過往亦有案例指出原居於單位的業主即使只持有一半業權,另一半業權已轉至新買家,居於單位的業主仍可按意願一直擁有居住權。故此,半契樓的買家若果未能和其他業權人達成處置或出租物業的方案,基本上難施計策,若想出售單位獲利,買家亦需與其他業權人成功協訂出售單位全部業權,方可於市場以市值價放售單位。

王美鳳
中原按揭經紀董事總經理

鮑威爾重申聯儲局不受政治因素影響 減息預期降溫

巴士的報

美國總統特朗普近期不斷施壓要求聯邦儲備局減息,聯儲局主席鮑威爾重申,局方決策不會受政治因素影響。

鮑威爾在美國外交關係協會的座談會上表示,聯儲局不會受到短期政治壓力影響,這即是經常說的「獨立性」。

他說,他和局內其他官員正反覆研究,貿易和其他問題的不確定性,是否支持減息。指聯儲局很多官員相信,放寬貨幣政策的理據已經增強,但他們亦明白,貨幣政策不應該對單一數據或市場情緒短期波動,有過大反應。

此外,美國聯邦儲備局有官員認為,下月即使減息,減幅亦毋須達到半厘,而主席鮑威爾則重申,局方決策不會受政治因素影響。

上星期對維持利率不變決議投反對票的聖路易聯邦儲備銀行行長布拉德,接受《彭博》訪問時表示,美國下半年經濟增長率預料會下降到低於2%,但這並不是世界末日。在目前經濟狀況下,減息半厘將會是太多,「預防性」地減四分之一厘已經足以防止,經濟以遠較預期大的幅度放慢。布拉德發表這番講話後,市場對聯儲局下月減息半厘的預測降溫。

利率期貨價格反映,市場人士預期,下個月減息半厘的機會率為35%,較上日低7個百分點,但減息四分之一厘的機會率,則由57%升至65%。

另一方面,有美國政府高層官員表示,總統特朗普認為美元太強,而歐元則太疲弱,假如聯儲局減息,這個狀況就可能會改善。這名官員又說,白宮沒有計劃將鮑威爾降職,指白宮法律顧問對總統是否有權這樣做意見分歧。

2019年6月25日 星期二

今日金價 2019-06-25


早上11點時金價在1427-1428美元, 之後抽上去, 到下午2點又跌反去1424-1425, 所以本人趕咗出去放金粒在13350港幣/1両 !

伊朗總統魯哈尼狠批美國新一輪制裁

NOW財經

【Now新聞台】美國總統特朗普簽署行政命令,向伊朗實施新一輪制裁,伊朗總統魯哈尼批評特朗普失去理智,又指針對最高領袖哈梅內伊的制裁措施是離譜和愚蠢。

伊朗總統魯哈尼回應美國新一輪制裁,他批評特朗普失去理智,又指針對伊朗最高領袖哈梅內伊和其他相關人員的行為是離譜和愚蠢。

他解釋80歲的哈梅內伊在國外沒有資產,從來沒有計劃到美國旅行,所以制裁根本沒有用,亦顯示白宮是「智障」,美國表示想談判是謊言。伊朗外交部亦表示,美國徒勞無功的制裁等同永遠關閉對話的大門。

美國總統特朗普早前簽署行政命令,制裁伊朗最高領袖哈梅內伊、他的辦公室以及革命衛隊,八名高層指揮官切斷他們重要的財政收入來源,報復伊朗擊落美軍無人偵察機。

到訪以色列的美國,國家安全顧問博爾頓表示,華府一直願意同伊朗談判。

證監會向14家經紀行發限制通知書 凍結涉中國智能操控市場帳戶

巴士的報

證監會公布,向14家經紀行發出限制通知書,禁止它們處置或處理在其客戶帳戶內持有的若干資產。該等帳戶與2018年10月至2019年3月期間中國智能集團(395)的涉嫌市場操控活動有關。

該等經紀行包括長江證券經紀(香港)、中州國際證券、中國銀河國際證券(香港)、富昌證券、廣發證券(香港)經紀、國信證券(香港)經紀、國泰君安證券(香港)、國元証券經紀(香港)、橫華國際証券、盈透證券香港、凱基證券亞洲、越秀証券、雲鋒證券及中泰國際證券。

證監會指相關經紀行並非今次進行調查的對象,而它們已就有關調查作出配合。限制通知書並不影響該等經紀行的運作或它們的其他客戶。

【收市總結】內銀腳軟 招行插近8% 拖低恒指收挫327點

星島日報

據外媒報道,美國法官裁定三間大型中資銀行可能因違反美國對北韓禁令,而被禁止不能再涉足美國金融體系,甚至包括不能再使用美元進行任何交易。有關三間涉事內銀發表聲明澄清,均表明未有因違反制裁而遭調查,但其負面消息仍觸發內銀股急滑,同時拖累恒指明顯回吐,先後失守28500關口及50天線( 28409),最多挫446點見28066低位,其後於低位反覆上落,收報28185,回吐327點或1.15%;國指走弱,收報10742,下降210點或1.92%。

投資者入市意欲偏低,大市成交僅得823.7億元。 內地股市全線偏軟,滬指跌穿3000關。上證指數結束連續六日的升勢,收報2982,跌0.87%;深成指數收報9118,降1.02%;兩市成交合計增至5133億元人民幣。 受壞消息嚴重影響,觸發內銀股全線受壓。招行(03968)最多跌過10.07%見37.5元,收瀉7.67%,報38.5元,為包尾內銀股;交行(03328)挫3.71%,收報5.95元,跑輸一眾藍籌股。工行(01398)跌1.32%,收報5.61元;中行(03988)降1.22%,收報3.23元;農行(01288)跌1.22%,收報3.24元;建行(00939)下滑1.21%,收報6.51元。

藍籌股普遍向下,騰訊(00700)連升五日後回吐,收低1.8%,報349.4元;友邦(01299)連升六日後亦回吐,回落0.54%,收報82.4元;匯控(00005)跌0.39%,收報64.1元;平保(02318)挫1.33%,收報92.65元;惟港鐵(00066)再創上市高,高見52.55元,收升0.96%,報52.35元,錄得九連升;九置(01997)升1.35%,收報56.35元,兩者為表現最好藍籌股頭兩位。

多隻創業板股份慘遭洗劫,星亞控股(08293)瀉96.48%,收報0.172元,單日接近蒸發近60億元;CHI HO(08423)插66.82%,收報0.73元;永耀集團(08022)急滑66.35%,收報0.35元。 市場繼續憧憬全球多國央行將減息,

金價曾升穿1420美元,刺激金礦股逆市向上,山東黃金(01787)急升6.13%,收報22.5元;中國黃金國際(02099)急揚6.05%,收報10.16元;招金(01818)抽高5.09%,收報8.88元;紫金(02899)升2.22%,收報3.22元;SPDR(02840)漲2.13%,收報1055元。

手機股顯著跑輸大市,比亞迪電子(00285)挫3.6%,收報10.72元;舜宇(02382)挫2.98%,收報76.5元;中興(00763)跌2.49%,收報21.5元;瑞聲(02018)跌2.18%,收報42.7元;小米(01810)跌1.81%,收報9.77元。

周一收市後發盈喜的李寧(02331)獲資金追入,股價一度抽升19.11%,最高見過18.2元,最後炒高18.32%,收報18.08元,成交金額7.7億元。 波司登(03998)反駁沽空機構博力達思研究(Bonitas Research)指控,周二復牌後大幅反彈,急飆15.03%,收報1.99元,成交4.58億元。

耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝表示,市場預期本周大市走勢以觀望為主,但受內銀壞消息拖累下,恒指明顯受挫,加上「習特會」會面在即,建議投資者以觀望為主,避免過分進取,並指出大市短期關鍵支持位為27800水平。至於內銀股方面,他認為兩國元首會晤前,突然傳出相關負面消息,是巧合還是美方給中方的「下馬威」呢?即使內銀股日後稍為喘定,都不用急於吸納,因為違反禁令屬實,其後果可謂「可大可小」,影響深遠。(sl)

渣打銀行八月起 取消個人戶口最低結餘收費

星島日報

繼匯豐銀行和中銀後,渣打銀行(香港)宣布,由今年8月1日起,取消個人綜合理財服務「Premium 理財」及「快易理財」的最低結餘服務費,而非綜合理財個人客戶存款戶口之小額存款收費及Click-a-Count 存款客戶之櫃台交易服務費亦會取消。

渣打指,一直支持本港普及金融及智慧銀行的發展,亦是首批成功取得營運虛擬銀行牌照的銀行,今次取消個人客戶最低結餘服務費,可為普羅大眾提供基本銀行服務。

雲南楚雄發生4.7級地震 暫無傷亡報告

星島日報

雲南楚雄州楚雄市周一(24日)晚上9時24分發生4.7級地震。地震震央距楚雄市14公里,目前暫無人員受傷情況報告。

據中國地震台網正式測定,6月24日21時24分在雲南楚雄州楚雄市發生4.7級地震,震源深度10千米,震中位於北緯24.98度,東經101.67度。

雲南省地震局通報稱,此次地震震央距楚雄市14公里,距昆明市105公里。楚雄州地震部門報告,初步統計,楚雄州楚雄市震感強烈,楚雄州其餘9個縣均有震感,昆明市有震感。目前,暫未收到人員受傷情況報告,其他災情正在進一步統計中。

地震發生後,雲南省地震局立即響應,組織召開緊急會商會。同時,迅速派出4人工作組連夜趕赴震區,開展災情調查等工作,指導開展現場應急處置。

有當地網民表示,「昆明有震感」、「嚇死我了我以為宜賓又來了嗚嗚嗚嗚」、「我的天啊,這是怎麼了」、「嚇死了」、「昆明表示有明顯震感,而且還打雷暴雨加閃電,嚇死人了」。

雲南金水河鎮突發山泥傾瀉 村莊被淹沒多人受困

星島日報

雲南紅河州金平縣23日凌晨突降大雨,導致山洪暴發,期間多人受困。救援人員抵達現場後,為防止二次受災,進行了拉網式排查,並對現場人員進行疏散。截至報道前,已救出19名被困者,疏散群眾50人。

據報,周日(23日)夜間,金平縣部分鄉鎮普降中到大雨,導致山洪爆發、河水突漲,部分鄉村道路塌方,民眾房屋不同程度受損。受強降水影響,周一(24日)凌晨,該縣金水河鎮南科村委會聯防村發生山泥傾瀉。

災害發生後,當局啟動災害救助應急預案,成立工作組,趕赴受災現場開展救援、調查及現場處置工作。金水河鎮黨委政府接報後立即啟動應急預案,於凌晨3點10分許組織全鎮幹部職工30餘人趕赴現場救援。

目前,南科小學師生和受災民眾已安全轉移,並得到緊急安置;救援工作正有序開展;受災情況正在核實統計之中。

柬埔寨中資大樓倒塌 增至少28死

星島日報

柬埔寨西南部濱海西哈努克城(Sihanoukville)一幢正在施工的7層高中資大樓上周六(22日)倒塌,截至目前已經造成28死多人受傷,目前災害現場仍在清理當中。由於肇事樓宇涉非法興建,引發柬埔寨總理洪森(Hun Sen)震怒,除了當地省長請辭獲准外,亦以失職為由開除國家災害管理委員會副主任。同時,宣佈成立一個委員會,全面撤查所有中資在當地的興建工程。

據報,西哈努克城本是漁港,擁有柬埔寨最大港口,也是中國一帶一路計畫的重鎮之一,設有一個中國經濟特區(Chinese Special Economic Zone),以接納中資,當地中資重點投資在賭場、地產和觀光產業,目前約有中資50座興建中的賭場和數十家酒店,在這次事件中,將全部遭到撤查。

倒塌意外發生在本月22日凌晨4點,當時約60多名工人驚慌奔逃,但大部分因為正在睡覺中,來不及逃脫遭到活埋,救災單位積極搶救,昨天奇蹟救出兩名生還者,累計至25日清晨,死亡人數已增至28、24人傷,而當局相信在堆積如山的扭曲鋼筋和瓦礫下,還有失蹤者待挖掘。

由於這棟倒塌大樓,屬無牌施工,施亞努省長雲明已經為此道歉並辭職。昨天,總理洪森再於社交網絡宣佈,國家災害管理委員會副主任寧萬達謊報災情,受到革職處分。洪森還決定將成立特别委員會,審查當地中國建築工程質量;在此之前,已有4位倒塌大樓的中國籍人員遭到逮捕。

The Dollar Decline

www.armstrongeconomics.com

The Fed meeting this week has triggered a turn in the dollar as US rates dipped on the 10-year to their lowest since Trump took office. As a result, the greenback is the weakest among the majors for the week thus far as we should expect for a decline near-term. Although there has been an impressive rally in EUR/USD, that currency has significant overhead resistance. The euro has not gained nearly as much as its major counterparts such as the Swiss and the C$.

While everyone will focus on interest rates, at the end of the summer we will see a refocus back on the structural problems in the Euro. Trump will be jumping for joy with a lower dollar for that will help in trade issues. The lower interest rates will also help to reduce interest expenditures on the national debt. So once again, we are looking at the calm before the storm.

The Next 8.6-Year Wave will be Inflationary

www.armstrongeconomics.com

All the real science is warning that there is a reasonable chance that we are headed into a much colder period ahead. This will have an impact on food prices and out computer models have been warning that the next wave of the Economic Confidence Model should be an inflationary wave. Even a new study from  nature.com said: “The recent prolonged solar minimum and subsequent weak solar cycle 24 have led to suggestions that the grand solar maximum may be at an end.”



The next 8.6-year wave beginning in January should produce a collapse in confidence in governments which will result in a shift from Public to Private assets, but then on top of this, we see a shortage in agricultural markets adding to the inflationary wave coming. Then add the Monetary Crisis and Sovereign Debt Crisis cycles and we end up with some very interesting impacts during the next wave.

2019年6月24日 星期一

熱浪襲歐洲 多國發高溫預警

星島日報

熱浪席捲歐洲,持續上升的氣溫很可能超過攝氏40度,巴黎、馬德里和慕尼黑等熱門旅遊城市將受影響。西班牙、法國、德國及荷蘭等國已經發布高溫預警。

歐洲本周將籠罩在熱浪之中,氣象預報員警告6月可能出現破紀錄高溫,氣溫料於本周中期來到高峰。

西班牙國家氣象局周日發布天氣惡劣的「黃色警戒」,但也表示預計在本周稍後氣溫會攀升至超過40度巔峰,特別是在內陸地區。其中西班牙東北部埃布羅河谷地區從本周四至周六,溫度可能飆破42度。

法國氣象預報員警告,熱浪於周日開始,尤其是在東部,全國大部分地區的氣溫將達到35至40度。當局嚴防2003年夏季酷暑熱浪事件重演,當時近15,000人在兩周內喪命,他們大多為長者。巴黎已有官員承諾開放公共建築內部的「冷氣房」、搭建臨時噴泉,讓城市停車場和花園於夜間保持開放通暢。

在德國,氣象預報員表示,他們預計熱浪將持續一周,也將突破2015年40.3度的高溫紀錄,並將高溫歸咎於「來自撒哈拉的暖空氣」來臨前的現象。

英國氣象局則指出,特別擔憂熱浪可能引發「激烈風暴」,並警告英國民眾將面臨「濕熱且不穩定」的天氣,周一及周二會出現大雷雨的惡劣天氣,而本周稍後可能出現最高溫度,於英國中部與西南部達30多度。

比利時的皇家氣象研究所也發布極度高溫炎熱警戒,並指出溫度預料從周二開始達到34至35度之間,瑞士也預期出現類似炎熱天氣。荷蘭官員周日也在12省中的7省發布天氣炎熱的警告。希臘本周末預估將記錄到極熱高溫,氣象預報員警告有些地區可能逹39度。

【逃犯條例】衝突減旅客意欲 姚思榮:酒店入住率房價下跌

星島日報

修訂《逃犯條例》引發連場大規模示威,旅遊界立法會議員姚思榮指,部分旅客擔心香港安全,酒店入住率較去年同期下跌5%,房價也下跌約5%,酒店收入總計減少約10%。

姚思榮指,和平遊行集會影響不大,但激烈衝擊則會打擊旅客信心。他指,七月中前都是旅遊淡季,酒店目前採取觀望態度,會調低價錢,吸引散客。

姚思榮指,據旅遊業議會數字,本月每日約有100多個內地旅行團,按年上升3成,相信因事前須預訂酒店和交通,若貿然取消會有損失,暫時影響尚未浮現。

另外有海外旅行社查詢香港情況,本港旅行社已解釋情況穩定,有些示威或影響中環、灣仔的交通,但前往傳統景點可避開交通要道,可按原訂行程來港。

大摩指中美元首G20若無共識 恆指一年瀉逾7000點

巴士的報

摩根士丹利認為,若中美元首G20峰會沒有共識,恒指未來一年可能跌超過7000點。

中美領導人本周將於二十國集團峰會見面,市場觀望會晤對投資市場的影響。

摩根士丹利指,若果雙方未能解決分歧,而美國又如期最快在7月2日,向額外3000億美元中國進口貨加徵兩成半關稅,在最差情況下,恒指未來一年可能下試21080點。

摩根士丹利新興市場股票首席策略員郭強盛稱,這是最悲觀的看法。當(貿易風險)升溫的假設,或其他情況可能出現,如油價上升令下半年環球衰退,大概較有可能出現最悲觀的情況。

另一方面,領航投資策略及研究部亞太區首席經濟學家王黔表示,中美貿易戰顯然已成雙輸局面,相信兩國都不希望爭端升級,或會在G20峰會上達成部分協議,或短期休戰,利好消息有望刺激市場氣氛,但相信中美仍需要繼續談判,貿易戰可能持續至2020年或更久。

王黔預計,受政治壓力影響,中美貿易談判期間,人民幣不會大幅貶值,但一旦談判破裂,人民幣有機會進一步受壓,跌破七算。

她又說,受各方面不明朗因素影響,美國在未來12至18個月內衰退的機會由30%上升至40%,聯儲局或最快於下月減息50個基點,部分亞洲央行或會跟隨減息。

領航預測,今年年底前美國經濟增長1.7%,低於早前預測的2%,中國的GDP增長則為6.2%,低於趨勢增長水平。

中國匯市:人民幣連兩日走弱 對一籃子跌勢明顯;G-20峰會前市場謹慎

hk.finance.yahoo.com

【彭博】-- 人民幣日內走勢偏弱,在新興市場貨幣中排名靠後,繼盤初跌破6.87元後,下午續跌破了6.88元關口,交易員稱日內在岸市場客盤購匯偏多;下午4點前後在美元指數回落之際,人民幣一度自日低小幅反彈。

三位交易員稱,盤初和下午人民幣走弱都有客盤購匯推動因素,其中包括石油企業和海外上市公司的分紅購匯需求。上述交易員不願具名接受採訪,因未被授權公開評論匯市。

人民幣兌美元走弱之際,美元指數也在震盪下行,這使得人民幣對一籃子指數走勢偏軟。彭博根據即期匯率編制的人民幣籃子指數今天明顯下跌,勢創去年11月末以來的近半年新低。

在進入G-20關鍵周之時,全球市場謹慎情緒濃烈,FXTM富拓市場分析師陳忠漢表示,投資者關注美國將對伊朗實施新一輪制裁、美國總統川普和中國國家主席習近平的會晤。中國股市方面,資金也在小幅撤出A股市場,根據彭博匯總數據,外國投資者今日通過滬股通和深股通淨賣出19.1億元(折合2.78億美元)中國股票,扭轉前一日持續淨買入趨勢。

市場表現

北京時間17:25,在岸人民幣兌美元下跌0.18%,報6.8802元16:30官方收盤價報6.8788元,下跌0.06%人民幣成交額減少22%,報239.48億美元香港時間17:26,離岸人民幣兌美元下跌0.2%,報6.8793元香港時間17:26,在岸與離岸人民幣價差報9點美元/在岸人民幣一個月隱含波動率上漲0.5個基點,報4.605%人民幣兌美元1年期NDF下跌0.14%,報6.9266元一年期境內美元兌人民幣掉期點下跌1點,報229人民幣兌美元中間價下調31點或0.05%,報6.8503元據中間價計算,今日交易波幅上限為6.7133,下限為6.9873

重點關注

中國商務部副部長王受文在北京表示,繼美國總統川普和中國國家主席習近平同意在日本G-20峰會期間舉行會晤後,美中兩國經貿團隊正在就下一步溝通問題進行商討中國金融觀察:監管借大券商紓困非銀,增短融額度解流動性分層之憂新興市場進入關鍵一周,投資者密切關注美中兩國領導人在日本會晤期間能否找到通往貿易協議的道路貝萊德:聯儲會向鴿派傾斜,金價年底或以更高水平收市。

收市速遞:恒指升39點收28513 成交697億元

星島日報

港股上升,恒指收報28513,升39點或0.14%;國企指數收報10952,漲31點或0.29%;紅籌指數收報4426,升9點或0.22%,成交金額697.82億元。

十大成交金額股份方面,騰訊(00700)升0.4%,收報355.8元;中國平安(02318)跌0.05%,收報93.9元;建行(00939)升0.3%,收報6.59元;友邦保險(01299)漲0.18%,收報82.85元;工行(01398)升0.67%,收報5.97元;美團點評(03690)跌0.86%,收報63.75元;中國鐵塔(00788)下滑0.95%,收報2.08元;盈富基金(02800)無升跌,收報29元;南方A50(02822)升0.54%,收報14.98元;港交所(00388)跌0.14%,收報276.4元。(ky)

【金市直擊】現貨金升0.46%新報1406.10美元

剛又沽出金粒在1404美元, 13200 港幣/1両, 價格同星期五差不多 !

 

見到有人沽出成盤剪斷的龍鳳鈪 !

 

昨天差啲買咗間二房單位 490萬, 後來諗諗下都係太細 !


巴士的報

現貨金新報1406.10美元一盎司,升6.47美元或0.46% 。
期金新報1410.20美元一盎司,升10.1美元或0.72%。
(al)


【一手趕散貨】

NOW財經

【Now新聞台】在剛過去的周末,樓市由一手主導,錄得約300宗成交,而多個新盤亦趁勢加推。有學者認為,樓市不明朗因素仍未消退,估計發展商短期內會加快推盤散貨。
兩個新界全新樓盤在剛過去的周六開售,推高周末的一手交投,其中,新鴻基地產屯門御半山II期,上周六推售130伙,售出逾90%單位,呎價最高近20000元,當中包括最少八組大手客,發展商趁勢加推68伙,折實平均呎價約16000元,周三會率先推出18伙。
至於元朗新盤瑧頤,在剛過去的周末推130伙,售出120個單位,平均成交呎價逾16000元,發展商新世界發展緊接於周三加推85伙應市。
對於過去兩日一手承接力不俗,有學者表示,主要是樓價略為回落,帶動成交反彈,並指樓市不明朗因素仍未消退。
此外,部署本周六開售的日出康城大型新盤GRAND MONTARA兩度加推,累計推出303伙,市傳該盤連日收逾5000票。
新盤成交回升,但二手買賣持續偏淡,綜合代理數據顯示,十大屋苑過去兩日最多錄得九宗買賣。有代理表示,受社會氣氛及中美貿易談判影響,市場仍普遍觀望樓價走向。
此外,嘉湖山莊有業主劈價逾60萬元賣樓,單位面積約440平方呎,屬兩房間隔,成交價523萬元,呎價逾11000元。
至於沙田河畔花園一個面積約240平方呎的兩房戶,以523萬元沽出,呎價逾21000元,創該屋苑同類單位今年新高。

【拆息扯高】

NOW財經

【Now新聞台】本港銀行同業拆息普遍上升。此外,滙豐銀行宣布上調港元定期存款利率。

臨近半年結,港元拆息上升,其中隔夜拆息連升第四日,升0.16厘至2.42厘水平,升上逾兩個半月高位,1個月拆息三連升,升至2.49厘水平。

此外,因應近日市場利率變動,滙豐上調3個月至12個月港元定存息0.2厘,港元3個月定存息介乎1.8厘至2.1厘,6個月及12個月最高2.15厘及2.2厘,起存金額為新資金10000元。

【大行透視】金價走勢看中美會談結果

文匯報

恒生銀行投資顧問服務主管 梁君馡

美國聯儲局於經濟數據未有明顯轉壞的情況下暗示將打開減息大門,令市場憧憬局方或將很快作出防範性減息行動。加上,英國硬脫歐機會增加及中東地緣政治局勢呈惡化跡象,帶動金價走勢,上周突破2013年9月以來高位曾穿1,400美元。

經濟衰退風險升將抑制油價

從歷史角度看,當央行政策傾向寬鬆時,預示未來經濟衰退風險將會上升。自70年代起,「金油比率」被市場視為風險結構變化的前瞻指標。「金油比率」是指金價對國際石油價格的比例,於2008、09及14年間,當該比率急劇攀升時,均出現引發經濟衰退疑慮的危機事件。故除「美債孳息曲線」外,投資者亦可留意「金油比率」這個衡量風險的指標。近期所見「金油比率」由4月低位大幅攀升達2成,反映於經濟衰退風險升溫及央行政策傾向寬鬆情況下,傳統上具保值能力的黃金料將較受市場青睞。相反,油價受需求趨向疲弱影響,預期走勢將不如金價。

中東局勢緊張料僅短期因素 

正當伊朗遭受美國加強制裁之際,伊朗外海的阿曼灣運油航道上,屢次有運油輪遇襲。中東地緣政治局勢呈惡化跡象,市場對美國與伊朗關係緊張的憂慮,亦帶動金價走勢向上。不過,由於地緣政治風險很可能是短期因素,對金價刺激作用未必能持續。至於未來金價走勢,筆者估計這主要受中美貿易爭端、環球經濟前景,以及各國央行的貨幣政策影響。現時市場焦點將轉移至本周舉行的G20峰會及中美元首會晤之上,料中美會談結果將影響金價及美元走勢。

(以上資料只供參考,並不構成任何投資建議)

2019年6月23日 星期日

美元走弱 港匯見今年新高

文匯報

香港文匯報訊(記者 馬翠媚)美減息預期升溫,美元走弱,港匯持續逞強,最高曾升至7.8025水平,為踏入2019年的新高。港元拆息昨普遍上升,其中與供樓按息相關的1個月港元拆息昨升至2.48179厘。但有分析認為,港元拆息進一步大漲空間有限,因此預期港匯未必輕易重返7.75至7.8算的強區間內。

短息升 1個月拆息超2.48厘

港元拆息昨呈短息升長息跌格局,其中隔夜息升穿2厘,報2.26214厘,單日升近38點子,1星期及2星期拆息昨分別升至2.415厘及2.62321厘,而反映銀行短期資金成本的3個月拆息昨微升至2.40842厘。長息方面,半年期拆息昨報2.37893厘,1年期拆息昨微跌至2.40196厘。

港元拆息普遍上揚,加上美聯儲暗示最早將於下月減息,美元兌主要貨幣下跌,而港匯則連日走強,昨更一度高見7.8026,在聯匯制度下,距離進入7.8強區間只差26點子。而截至昨晚7時,港匯報7.8115。

李若凡:美是否減息看數據 

華僑永亨銀行經濟師李若凡表示,美聯儲議息後釋放鴿派訊號,令市場對美年內減息預期升溫,並導致美元全面走弱,然而由於其他主要央行也是紛紛釋放鴿派訊號,美元指數的下行壓力或有所緩和。市場預期美聯儲最快將於7月減息,她則認為美聯儲會否如預期7月減息,將取決於經濟數據和貿易戰發展,因此市場正密切關注中美元首即將在G20峰會上會面,以及美國下月公佈一系列經濟數據。

拆息再升有限 港匯難上強區 

至於香港方面,李若凡預期在季節性因素、大型新股招股效應消退之前,未來1、2個月內港元拆息將繼續在高位徘徊,另一邊廂,美聯儲釋放鴿派訊號,推升市場對港美息差收窄的預期,從而驅使港元短倉平盤,並支持港匯進一步反彈,然而她提醒在市場參與者做好了初步資金部署、加上環球央行持續釋放鴿派訊號下,料港元拆息進一步大升空間有限,因此港匯未必輕易重返7.75至7.8算強區間內。

2019年6月22日 星期六

李居明星期六電台 2019-06-22

李居明說, 新曆6月6日至7月7日是最差的一個月, 7月7日至8月8日會好少少, 要到8月8日後才會向好, 但9月和10月會回一回, 要到11月才會向好, 而2020年2月4日後市場是向好, 似是2020年是好年 !


李居明也說, 往後2年半, 春天、夏天和秋天出生的人多數會行好運, 冬天出生的人就要守不宜攻 !

One Bank Warns Direct US Currency Intervention Is Increasingly Possible

www.zerohedge.com

Here's a "shocker": Donald Trump is right about the dollar being overvalued.

In attempt to answer the ongoing debate about whether the USD is overvalued relative to its peers, in a lengthy report from Bank of America's Ben Randol and Adarsh Sinha we read that the simplest gauge is to compare the real effective exchange rate (REER) to its long-run history, which shows that it is about 13% above its long-term average...

While according to more sophisticated techniques from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) show that the dollar is overvalued by 8-16%. In the recently published Semiannual Report to Congress, the Treasury cited the IMF research and pointed out that the 4.5% dollar appreciation over 2018 is concerning, and that sustained dollar strength would likely exacerbate persistent trade and current account imbalances.

Taking a step back, BofA notes that a classic textbook definition of long-run valuation is that the exchange rate is in 'equilibrium' if it does not cause internal and external imbalances. That is, there is no output gap or inflationary pressures domestically, and the current account is sustainably financed via capital flows externally. In the short- to medium-term, however, exchange rates can deviate from equilibrium by considerable magnitudes and for a period of many years.

Thus, while the dollar might be overvalued, it may not be necessarily out of line with fundamentals. The US is growing at a faster pace than many of its trading partners, therefore supporting dollar strength. In addition during times of heightened uncertainty - owing in part to the threat of tariffs - the dollar is underpinned by safe-haven flows. It is therefore important to understand the reasons for short-run fluctuations around the long-run fair value.
* * *
Whatever measures one uses, however, it is clear that the dollar is currently "overvalued" and Trump is clearly pissed about it, arguing time and again that the strong dollar is "unfair" for one simple reason: the strong dollar stands in the way of his goal to boost exports and support the US manufacturing sector. 

So what can Trump do about it? 

For one, he could encourage the Federal Reserve to ease policy - something has has been doing rather deliberately on his twitter account and in other media - thereby weakening the dollar. The Fed has shifted and is guiding toward cuts but with limited impact on USD so far.

Another option is to "talk" the markets into weakening the dollar. In the beginning of his administration, this proved to be successful but there appears to be diminishing effects as the chart below shows.

So if verbal intervention is no longer an option, BofA cautions that the risk is that the focus moves to formal currency intervention, and while this is not Bank of America's baseline expectation, "the risks are rising."

If not Trump, what would the Treasury do?

At its simplest, BofA writes, "the US Treasury - which is responsible for international financial policy and therefore managing USD - will guide the NY Fed's market desk to intervene." So, if the goal is to weaken the dollar, the NY Fed would sell dollars and buy the other currency. The currencies that are used for intervention come from the Fed's holdings and the Exchange Stabilization Fund of the Treasury, which largely consist of euros and Japanese yen.

There are two types of interventions: sterilized and unsterilized. 

When the intervention is sterilized, the NY Fed will buy or sell other securities (e.g. sovereign bonds) through open market operations. This prevents the intervention from changing the monetary base and interfering with monetary policy. The composition of the Fed's portfolio is altered, however. When the intervention is unsterilized - which is more typical - it has the ability to influence the money supply and impact interest rates.

What is the history of US currency intervention?

From the 1970s to the mid-1990s, the US frequently intervened in the FX market in an attempt to stabilize an otherwise volatile dollar, especially against the DEM.

The late-1970s marked a period of aggressive intervention given that the dollar was under heavy pressure and depreciated on the back of high oil prices, high US inflation and widening deficits.

There was also a strong case for intervention in the mid-1980s when the G5 countries (the US, Germany, Japan, Britain, France) met at the Plaza Hotel in New York, and decided that the US dollar was "overvalued", agreeing to bring the dollar down by 10-12% through coordinated central bank action (aptly known as the "Plaza Accord"). The intervention following the meeting was successful: by the end of 1986, the yen, deutschmark, and British pound had all appreciated by 40-50% vs the dollar.

The 1990s marked the final stage of big dollar interventions. Between 1991 and 1992, the Treasury and the Fed intervened in the face of a weakening dollar on the back of the Gulf War. Once again, the US was faced with a weak dollar in 1994 and the US intervened repeatedly, coordinating with the Japanese and individual European central banks to support the US currency. Since 1996, however, the US has only intervened three times, according to NY Fed data: buying Japanese yen in June 1998, buying euros in September 2000, and selling Japanese yen in March 2011.

Is US currency intervention legal from an international perspective?
The most recent G20 Communique from earlier this month, to which the US is a signatory, reaffirmed commitments made in March 2018 regarding exchange rates. That statement reads as follows.
Flexible exchange rates, where feasible, can serve as a shock absorber. We recognise that excessive volatility or disorderly movements in exchange rates can have adverse implications for economic and financial stability. We will refrain from competitive devaluations, and will not target our exchange rates for competitive purposes. - Communique, G20 Finance Ministers & Central Bank Governors, March 20, 2018
While the G20 countries have agreed not to target exchange rates for the purpose of competitive devaluation, the text recognizes undesirable effects that could be caused by volatile exchange rates. This means that temporary intervention for the purpose of stabilizing FX is permitted. So while the statement provides possibility for intervention under the auspices of countering volatile markets, the currently low level of FX volatility would argue against this being a relevant argument at this point. If risk-off conditions precipitate a legitimately disorderly rise in USD, however, BofA thinks "the probability of intervention by the Trump Administration increases significantly."

What do other countries do?

The geographically smaller and economically open financial centers such as Switzerland, Macao, Singapore and Hong Kong have been the most active in currency intervention. This is because exchange rates in these areas have an outsized impact on the economy because of their importance to overall financial conditions. Among these, Switzerland intervened in its currency for all three years between 2015 and 2017, with net official flows averaging 14% of its GDP. This was conducted entirely by its central bank. Meanwhile, Singapore's action materialized through its public pension system by investing income taxes entirely overseas through a sovereign wealth fund. Japan also increased the share of public pension fund investment in foreign assets between 2012 and 2016, resulting in a net financial flow of more than 4% of GDP.

Outside of financial hubs, currency intervention is also commonly found among manufacturing exporters to boost their competitiveness. For example, both Taiwan and Israel intervened in their currencies for all three years between 2015 and 2017, according to Peterson Institute research.

Emerging markets' central banks also have a history of intervening, largely with the goal of smoothing FX volatility. In good times, they have tended to accumulate USD reserves (pushing down the value of their currencies) to self-insure against periods of infrequent but severe global risk aversion, where capital-flight risks necessitate selling USD to prevent currency depreciation that would jeopardize their inflation-targeting mandates. Although China had been the largest currency intervenor a decade ago, it actually did the opposite in 2015 and 2016. Instead of buying, China sold large amounts of foreign assets to prevent its currency from depreciation on the back of capital flight.

Finally, the all important question: Does intervention work?

The answer will depend on the intention of the intervention. If the goal of intervention is to stabilize exchange rates, the evidence suggests that intervening proves successful. This is particularly the case in emerging market countries where the financial system is less developed. Moreover, token or temporary interventions can generate meaningful signaling effects, helping to underscore easier monetary policy and support the economy.

However, if the goal is to achieve a targeted long-term level of competitiveness, the literature generally finds that unsterilized intervention does not work because the increase in relative inflation offsets nominal FX depreciation (just look at Japan's decades of failed direct intervention which eventually became targeted by the amrket). It also could have negative side effects as it creates distortions and could work against other policies if not coordinated properly with the central bank.

History shows that currency intervention is a useful tool for emerging market countries which need to stabilize exchange rates. But there is little evidence that it works for advanced economies with the intention of targeting long-term FX competitiveness. Which may be precisely why Trump will try it...

深圳購物公園

好多年前同老公坐深圳地鐵見到一個叫[購物公園]的站, 以為是一個好多小店的公園, 所以走去睇下, 原來是一個圓形商場, 但當時商場還在裝修, 只有在外面開咗間Starbuck, 所以當時我地唯有在Starbuck食野 !


呢次去見到的是一個長長的商店街, 叫[連城新天地](Link City), 我地由A區行去B區, 再行去C區 ! 一路都有好多食店, 最後我地在C區大快活食野 !
















食完午餐繼續向前行, 轉入去[中心城廣場]行咗一個圈, 唔敢上二樓和三樓, 因為唔知要行幾耐 !


由Starbuck行咗出去睇下外面是乜情景 ! 唔知呢個Starbuck是否以前個個 ?





最後行返入去[連城新天地]由C區直行到[會展站]上返地鐵返羅湖口岸 !


原來由[連城新天地]可以行去福田高鐵站商店街 ! 

上次坐高鐵去廣州南站返來時, 老公見到有1號地鐵線牌, 但本人說沒行過, 驚迷路, 所以跟返4號地鐵線去落馬州口岸, 但依家就知點樣行啦 !