2013年3月31日 星期日

Australia Wants To Cut Out US Dollar In Trade With China


By | March 29 2013 7:42 PM

Australia is seeking to bypass trading in U.S. dollars with China in an effort to avoid the commercial uncertainties that come with the recent fluctuations in the greenback. For example, just a half a year ago, the dollar traded at about $1.20 to the euro; by February, it had weakened to $1.34 per euro and now it is going for $1.27.

Eliminating the dollar in trade will be the focus of Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard’s trip to Beijing next week. Trade with China, Australia’s primary trading partner, totaled $120 billion in the last fiscal year. China buys nearly one-third of Australian exports.

"The value of such a deal would be substantial for exporters to China, especially those that import a lot from China, like mining companies, as it would remove business constraints including exchange-rate risks and transaction costs," said Australia’s former ambassador to China, Geoff Raby, according to the Australian.

The Australian government has made no secret of its aims to shift away trade from the U.S. dollar, the world’s primary reserve currency used in international commerce.

A government report, titled “Australia in the Asian Century,” discusses Canberra’s efforts to establish direct trading between the Australian dollar and the Chinese renminbi, or RMB, also referred to as the yuan. It also pushes for increasing the prominence of the RMB as a global reserve currency.

“We have held preliminary discussions with the Chinese government to explore how soon direct convertibility can be practicably achieved,” the October 2012 report reads. “We are continuing these discussions, and also exploring other opportunities to work with China to support the internationalization of the RMB.”

Canberra’s aims to build on a $30 billion currency-swap deal with China signed last year that makes funds available for business transactions between the two countries through their respective state-run banks.

The report described the deal as “one of the largest such swaps China has entered into.”
Gillard will meet with the recently elevated Chinese leaders, President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang, as she marks her first official visit to their country as prime minister and sets the tone for bilateral ties with Beijing.

Australia's former prime minister Kevin Rudd has already arrived in Beijing where he delivered an address on security issues in the Asia-Pacific region -- ranging from cyberwarfare to North Korean nuclear threats -- at the Chinese military’s National Defense University.

Storing Silver for the Next Generation

儲實銀代替教育基金 !


March 29, 2013 - 9:53am
Many parents looking to the future and concerned about their children’s financial security have been reframing reasons for owning silver as a long term investment.

Awareness seems to be growing among parents that an outstanding way to provide for their child's future educational expenses is to employ silver ownership as an investment vehicle.

These college expenses typically include tuition, study materials like books and computers, travel, and room and board costs.

Buying Silver Versus Section 529 College Saving Plans

Silver increasingly looks like an excellent private college saving vehicle, especially since many of the pre-funded college tuition savings plans made under Section 529 of the Internal Revenue Code seems to be crashing and not living up to their investors’ expectations. This issue has already sparked a substantial controversy in the State of Alabama.

Also, holding silver for such well-defined future purposes tends to provide long term investors with a better perspective. This helps them avoid getting caught up in an investment world obsessed with day trading for a short term profit, despite those gains being measured in terms of an ever-devaluing paper currency.

Fortunately, at today’s very reasonable prices, it does not take much money or very long to grow a small collection of silver that will be enough to cover a reasonably priced college education.

Avoiding the Student Loan Bubble With Silver

Obviously, the growing costs associated with education — as evidenced by the trillion dollar student loan bubble with an unprecedented and growing 17% default rate — seems unsustainable to say the least.

A seemingly meager investment in silver made at today’s prices could eventually prevent your children from having to rely on student loan debt where they would end up owing a large amount of money by the time they graduate. This logic might even impress those investors who are not otherwise predisposed to understanding or otherwise caring about the white metal.

For example, making just a $30,000 investment in silver today for your children’s education will most likely grow in value many times over a holding period of 15 years. Silver’s future appreciation will very likely outpace both the consumer price inflation index, and will probably even exceed the higher rate of inflation in college education, which is currently running at ridiculous levels.

Furthermore, if your child ultimately decides not to go to college, or gets a scholarship to fund their studies instead, your prudent investment in silver will provide quite a nest egg to help them start out in life, buy their first home, etc.

Effect on the Silver Market

Certainly, the wider use of silver as part of college savings programs would tend to legitimize the currently misunderstood "silver stackers", who often tend to be characterized as hoarders.

The more small, retail investors who start purchasing silver for long term purposes, such as college savings plans, the more the price of silver should rise over time.

This sort of broad grassroots demand should also tend to lessen the downside pressure that the current manipulators of the silver market are able to exert.

遊法頻遇劫 嚇怕中國旅客


專 門接待中國遊客的法國安塞爾旅行社總經理周建防表示,自去年起幾乎每天都有襲擊事件發生,不少中國遊客都受害,本月20日有23名中國人在巴黎落機後在餐 廳遇劫,失去護照、機票和現金;去年10月一日內就有10人遇劫。中國駐巴黎大使館承認,去年收到中國人的求助個案急升。







參加這個商學院的學生年齡介乎7至11歲,一星期上課三小時,課程全與金錢有關,例如只有50元錢,要去歡樂谷玩,該買些甚麼東西,還教他們甚麼叫購物清 單、如何做預算。此外,又要小童想像身處荒島,有甚麼比黃金珠寶更重要。參加課程的8歲小童李其成說:「上課時很輕鬆,課外的練習多好玩!」



2013年3月30日 星期六







I Went To Sleep Friday A Rich Man, I Woke Up Poor

以為手持一千萬至兩千萬就可以財務自由的人須讀以下故事 !


So much has been written of the Cypriot bail-ins and massive haircuts for the uninsured depositors - assumed to be nasty oligarchic Russian money-launderers - that, it appears, the reality for people living in Cyprus has been forgotten. We noted earlier the small business issues, but as the Sydney Morning Herald reports, real lives have been destroyed. 65-year-old John Demitriou retired (back) to the picturesque fishing village of Liopetri, Cyprus, with his life-savings of around $1 million living off the interest it paid from Laiki 'Popular' Bank and spending it on his grandchildren. He was in no hurry to invest it; to spend it on big purchases.
Then, after being told just last week by his bank manager, "there's no problem, nothing to worry about," he so painfully notes, "I went to bed Friday as a rich man. I woke up a poor man," as Laiki's depositors over EUR100,000 were devastated thanks to the bail-in. The Australian Department of Foreign Affairs notes, "there is no need for special measures," to help John (or the other 5000 Cypriot-Australians on the island) as he exclaims, "it's not Russian money; it's not black money; it's my money."

Via Sydney Morning Herald,
''Very bad, very, very bad,'' says 65-year-old John Demetriou, rubbing tears from his lined face with thick fingers. ''I lost all my money.''

John now lives in the picturesque fishing village of Liopetri on Cyprus' south coast. But for 35 years he lived at Bondi Junction and worked days, nights and weekends in Sydney markets selling jewellery and imitation jewellery.

He had left Cyprus in the early 1970s at the height of its war with Turkey, taking his wife and young children to safety in Australia. He built a life from nothing and, gradually, a substantial nest egg. He retired to Cyprus in 2007 with about $1 million, his life savings.

He planned to spend it on his grandchildren - some of whom live in Cyprus - putting them through university and setting them up. There would be medical bills; he has a heart condition. The interest was paying for a comfortable retirement, and trips back to Australia. He also toyed with the idea of buying a boat.

He wanted to leave any big purchases a few years, to be sure this was where he would spend his retirement. There was no hurry. But now it is all gone.

''If I made the decision to stay, I was going to build a house,'' John says. ''Unfortunately I didn't make the decision yet.

''I went to sleep Friday as a rich man. I woke up a poor man.''

His money was all in the Laiki ''Popular'' Bank which was the main casualty of Cyprus' bailout package set by the European Union. Laiki is to be dismantled. Savings of less than €100,000 are to move to the Bank of Cyprus. Anything more than that will almost certainly be wiped out as the bank is wound down, its remaining assets taken by the bank's creditors.

Last week he heard a rumour that the bank was in trouble and went into Aiya Napa to ask his bank manager - a friend - if he should move his life savings.

''There's no problem, nothing to worry about,'' he was told.

Not so. ''I go to bed and I can't sleep. I walk around, I have a coffee. I am thinking about my family.''

John's tears flow. As he chokes up, his son George, who moved to Cyprus in 1990, explains.

''The whole family, we used to work at the markets. I would work at the markets on the weekend to help my parents while my mates were off having fun. Honest work in honest jobs. Now all that hard work is paying the debts of other people and the government. It's disgusting, to be honest.''

George says he can start again - if things get worse he and his family might move back to Australia.

''But not my dad. He can't go back to Australia. He is not allowed to fly because of his heart, and anyway where would he live? He has no house. He will have €100,000 left to live off. Soon he's not going to have a cent to his name.''

John has a thin hope. His money was sitting in the bank in Australian dollars instead of euros, so he wonders if it would be exempt from the bank's collapse. But the bank's doors are closed, so he doesn't even know to whom he should put that argument.

''For the moment I am 'sitting on charcoal', as they say,'' waiting to see if he gets burnt.

''It's not Russian money, it's not black money. It's my money.''

There are almost 5000 Cypriot-Australians on the island. Most are - or were - self-sufficient veterans of the 1950s engineering boom or the 1974 war who came back to retire or to be with family (John is looking after his 90-year-old mother).

This week Britain stopped paying pensions into Cypriot accounts, advising expatriates to open a British bank account instead.

Australia's high commission in Nicosia has already fielded inquiries from dual nationals seeking advice on their pensions. They were told to set up different payment arrangements, a spokeswoman for the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade said.

''We expect the main impact will be for Australians who have invested large sums in Laiki Bank or the Bank of Cyprus,'' she said. ''There is no need for special measures at this stage.''

FDIC & Bank of England Create Resolution Authority for Unlimited Cyprus-Style “Bail-Ins” for TBTF Banks!

放錢入銀行, 不再是儲錢, 而是投資入銀行, 同買股票無分別啦 !

雖然香港有五十萬存款保障, 但如果政府錢用曬, 想救你都難, 所以一定要分散投資, 而實物會有多些保障 !



On Wednesday, SD broke the news that Canada had buried a provision for depositor bail-ins for systemically important banks deep inside its official 2013 budget, and stated that the Cypriot bail-in was not just a one-off event, but is in fact the new collapse template for the entire Western banking system.
We suspected that the same policy change had been made by the US & the UK, but was simply yet to be discovered, buried in the website of a Federal agency. 

We suspected correctly…

In the introduction, the resolution informs readers that the FDIC and the Bank of England have been working together to formulate the new bail-in model for future bank failures:

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) and the Bank of England—together with the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and the Financial Services Authority— have been working to develop resolution strategies for the failure of globally active, systemically important, financial institutions (SIFIs or G-SIFIs) with significant operations on both sides of the Atlantic.
The goal is to produce resolution strategies that could be implemented for the failure of one or more of the largest financial institutions with extensive activities in our respective jurisdictions. These resolution strategies should maintain systemically important operations and contain threats to financial stability. They should also assign losses to shareholders and unsecured creditors in the group, thereby avoiding the need for a bailout by taxpayers.
The joint US/UK resolution states that depositor haircuts are already legal in the UK thanks to the 2009 UK Banking Act:
In the U.K., the strategy has been developed on the basis of the powers provided by the U.K. Banking Act 2009 and in anticipation of the further powers that will be provided by the European Union Recovery and Resolution Directive and the domestic reforms that implement the recommendations of the U.K. Independent Commission on Banking.  Such a strategy would involve the bail-in (write-down or conversion) of creditors at the top of the group in order to restore the whole group to solvency.

And that the legal authority has already been given in the US buried in Dodd-Frank:

It should be stressed that the application of such a strategy can be achieved only within a legislative framework that provides authorities with key resolution powers. The FSB Key Attributes have established a crucial framework for the implementation of an effective set of resolution powers and practices into national regimes. In the U.S., these powers had already become available under the Dodd-Frank Act. In the U.K., the additional powers needed to enhance the existing resolution framework established under the Banking Act 2009(the Banking Act) are expected to be fully provided by the European Commission’s proposals for a European Union Recovery and Resolution Directive (RRD) and through the domestic reforms that implement the recommendations of the U.K. Independent Commission on Banking (ICB), enhancing the existing
resolution framework established under the Banking Act.
The development of effective resolution strategies is being carried out in anticipation of such legislation.
The unsecured debt holders can expect that their claims would be written down to reflect any losses that shareholders cannot cover, with some converted partly into equity in order to provide sufficient capital to return the sound businesses of the G-SIFI to private sector operation. Sound subsidiaries (domestic and foreign) would be kept open and operating, thereby limiting contagion effects and cross-border complications. In both countries, whether during execution of the resolution or thereafter, restructuring measures may be taken, especially in the parts of the business causing the distress, including shrinking those businesses, breaking them into smaller entities, and/or liquidating or closing certain operations.

The resolution states that while the US would prefer large financial institutions be resolved through ordinary bankruptcy, depositor wealth confiscation will be pursued in the case of a systemically important institution (i.e. BOA, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, etc):

As demonstrated by the Title I requirement of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act of 2010 (Dodd-Frank Act), the U.S. would prefer that large
financial organizations be resolvable through ordinary bankruptcy. However, the U.S. bankruptcy process may not be able to handle the failure of a systemic financial institution without significant disruption to the financial system.

The resolution authority states that shareholders would lose all value prior to depositor scalpings:
Under the strategies currently being developed by the U.S. and the U.K., the resolution authority could intervene at the top of the group.  Culpable senior management of
the parent and operating businesses would be removed, and losses would be apportioned to shareholders and unsecured creditors. In all likelihood, shareholders would lose all value and unsecured creditors should thus expect that their claims would be written down to reflect any losses that shareholders did not cover.
Under both the U.S. and U.K. approaches, legal safeguards ensure that creditors recover no less than they would under insolvency.

The banksters plans for a bail-in resolution agency include investment banks and clearing houses as well as deposit bearing institutions!!!
The introduction of a statutory bail-in resolution tool (the power to writedown or convert into equity the liabilities of a failing firm) under the RRD is critical to implementing a whole group resolution of U.K. firms in a way that reduces the risks to financial stability. A bail-in tool would enable the U.K. authorities to recapitalize an institution by allocating losses to its shareholders and unsecured creditors, thereby avoiding the need to split or transfer operating entities. The provisions in the RRD that
enable the resolution authority to impose a temporary stay on the exercise of termination rights by counterparties in the event of a firm’s entry into resolution (in other words, preventing counterparties from terminating their contractual arrangements with a firm solely as a result of the firm’s entry into resolution) will be needed to ensure the bail-in is executed in an orderly manner.
The existing Banking Act does not cover nondeposit-taking financial firms, notably investment banks and financial market infrastructures (clearing houses in particular), the failure of which, in many cases, would also have significant financial stability consequences. The Banking Act also has limitations with regard to the application of resolution tools to financial holding companies. The U.K. is in the process of expanding the scope of the Banking Act to include these firms. This is expected to be achieved through the introduction of the U.K. Financial Services Bill, which is due to complete its passage through Parliament by the end of this year.
Exactly as played out with the Cyprus template, depositors will receive equity shares in the new, bailed-in institution:
The remaining claims of the debt holders will be converted, in part, into equity claims that will serve to capitalize the new operations. The debt holders may also receive convertible subordinated debt in the new operations. This debt would provide a cushion against further losses in the firm, as it can be converted into equity if needed. Any
remaining claims of the debt holders could be transferred to the new operations in the form of new unsecured debt.

Exactly as played out with the Cyprus template, depositor funds will be stolen in whatever quantities are required to keep the TBTF zombie bank afloat:

Once the recapitalization requirement has been determined, an announcement of the final terms of the bail-in would be made to the previous security holders.
This announcement would include full details of the write-down and/or conversion.
Debt securities would be cancelled or written down in order to return the firm to solvency by reducing the level of outstanding liabilities.  The losses would be applied up the firm’s capital structure in a process that respects the existing creditor hierarchy underinsolvency law. The value of any loans from the parent to its operating subsidiaries would be written down in a manner that ensures that the subsidiaries remain solvent and viable.
For now (until the rules are changed when a greater need for funds arises, funds will only be stolen from depositors with more than the FDIC insured $100,000 in their account:
Insofar as a bail-in provides for continuity in operations and preserves value, losses to a deposit guarantee scheme in a bail-in should be much lower than in liquidation.
Insured depositors themselves would remain unaffected. Uninsured deposits would be treated in line with other similarly ranked liabilities in the resolution process, with the expectation that they might be written down.

In order for the resolution to work, the banksters state that the public must be convinced their deposits are safe, when in fact they are subject to bail-in confiscation:

Similarly, because the group remains solvent, retail or corporate depositors should not have an incentive to “run” from the firm under resolution insofar as their banking
arrangements, transacted at the operating company level, remain unaffected.  In order to achieve this, the authorities recognize the need for effective communication to depositors, making it clear that their deposits will be protected.

0.1% interest on savings deposits with the now VERY REAL THREAT OF COMPLETE CONFISCATION in the US & UK doesn’t sound like such a great return to us.

The Fed appears to be making a calculated play to force savings out of the TBTF banks and into stocks and real estate, a move that is likely to backfire spectacularly.


2013年3月29日 星期五

The Short Dollar & The Debt Bubble

Martin Amstrong 說, 因為太多人睇淡美元, 所以美元有機會來緊俾人挾高 !

本人認為, Cyprus 單野已說俾大家知, 太多錢放在銀行是不安全的, 所以來緊會繼績有資金流出銀行體系 !

歐羅、日元、英鎊會繼續跌, 而偏穩的還是人民幣、黃金和白銀 ! 澳元和加元會是慢跌的貨幣 !

所以本人都有少少已改變原來的投資路向, 會減持一些外幣存款, 而在每一個低位買入黃金和白銀, 就如李居明說的, 2014年才是黃金升的時候, 睇怕到時會有好多壞消息出現 !


Everyone keeps touting the demise of the dollar. They seem to be unaware of the global private debt bubble in dollars and how bullish that can be. During the 1980′s, banks in Australia sold Swiss loans on the basis that was the way to save massive interest with no view of the A$ whatsoever. Then the Swiss rallied and A$ fell and the losses to borrowers were massive. This even altered the capital flows confusing the hell out of economists. Back then, there were countless bankruptcies and it was good business for us for we were getting called in among Australia’s top 50 companies all dealing with currency losses on a grand scale.

Well, the short dollar debt bubble has been rising globally and in some respects for perfectly rational reasons in Europe and especially in Asia. Lending and borrowing have been encouraged by super low interest rates and bogus analysts who kept swearing the dollar would move lower, gold would soar, so borrow in dollars and you will pay back with funny money. This attitude has created a global private debt bubble with everyone expecting to profit from a dollar collapse. Unfortunately, as the Euro presses lower because of massive structural problems that have revealed that currency could NEVER rise as a true RESERVE currency displacing the dollar lacking a single national debt, the risks associated with a dollar rally are just off the charts.

Rising debt levels are a natural outgrowth of rising wealth that has been emerging in Asia. As economies advance, financial sectors become more advanced and debt tends to increase. Nevertheless, there are reasons to be concerned about what’s going on in Asia. These economies are requiring more debt to keep going and privately have been following the West down the primrose path of financial indebtedness.

Asia is not as economically healthy as its GDP growth rates suggest. There are growing debt problems with much of the debt in dollars. The economic growth is highly credit-dependent, which in fact provides leverage.Fundamentally, this is a trend we must respect comes with risks because of the cross currency borrowing that introduces massive currency exposure. The dollar has provided incredibly easy money conditions in the entire global economy. This extends far beyond the Fed’s balance sheet and in fact, the Fed looks conservative compared to the rest of the world no less the ECB. Debt has the possibility to rise even further, as financial institutions are under pressure to lend money as evidenced in the USA with mortgage rates dropping below 4%.

The analysis that constantly harp about the Fed and its quantitative easing being massively bearish for the dollar have only helped to create this dollar bubble that is the mirror image of gold. We are beginning to enter the more interesting stage as we await the final break in gold, but the shift in even more capital from Europe that is helping the US share market explode most likely going into a May high, is lining up with a Euro low initially also in May.

The dollar rise into 1985 was similarly fueled by massive dollar bearishness and goldbugs swearing new highs were around the corner. In 1980, the US national debt hit $1 trillion when gold hit $875 and the Eurodollar deposits also reached $1 trillion. Europeans were convinced as all the press there touted the way the USA would get out of its debt bubble was to create a two-tier dollar with green ones still domestic and red ones for Eurodollars. This belief led to huge capital outflows from Eurodollar deposits that collapsed by 50% going into 1985 shifting to domestic dollar deposits that they believed would be worth more. As the bearish dollar view expanded, the dollar rose even further.

This is what has taken place in recent times. The cry that the dollar will collapse because of Fed quantitative easing has been used to both sell gold and dollar loans. The Fed’s $3 trillion expansion was merely offset by the near $6 trillion in capital contraction by the deleveraging. Hence, the net effect fo QE1, QE2, and QE3 have utterly failed to produce the hyperinflation that the majority were forecasting.

This expansion by the Fed helped to create a gold rally, but more significantly, it created a short dollar bubble in debt on a global scale that will cause a dollar rally which will shock the borrowers just as the Australians who were borrowing in Swiss. The extensive short dollar positions through dollar loans counting on its demise, is enough fuel to cause the dollar rally. This is being egged on by the stupidity in Europe at the ECB over this whole Cyprus deal. As geopolitical concerns also rise in Japan with North Korea threatening everyone, the dollar is poised to move higher there. In Britain, the economic decline continues and we may even see negative growth rates there as they become also hunters of the rich and applying their tax laws internationally. The Swiss pegged their currency to the Euro to try to fend off capital flight there but with Russia pissed off over Cyprus, the safer bet is the dollar.

In Australia they called it “the economic equivalent of Mission Impossible” where their burgeoning foreign debt problem was accelerated by a government that did not understand capital flows any more that they do today or most conventional analysts still stuck in the Bretton Woods era of increase money supply must be inflationary ignoring international trends. The Australian Hawke Government at the time claimed to have the answer by tight monetary policy and high interest rates. But the loans were in Swiss. The more they raised interest rates, the greater the A$ rose and this increased the losses in foreign loans. The current account deficit rose because what was included in that is interest payments. The Australian government totally screwed up everything because they were clueless. Meanwhile, academics are focused intensely only on domestic models trying to apply random walks and market efficiency concepts unable to look at anything else like a 12 year old boy who sees his first nude woman unable to even blink.

So hang on to your seat. The press, government, herd of domestically fixated analysts, and most spellbound economists have no clue what has been created because they do not look to the horizon and do not understand the accounting system government are using in any event. As the dollar rises, Washington will call it a currency war, raise interest rates to discourage dollar loans, engage in protectionism, and this will create a feed-back loop sending the currency higher as was the case with the A$ and the Great Depression. Then we have the Sovereign Debt Crisis on top of this mess. So for all those touting the demise of the dollar, the majority are always wrong because that is the fuel that drives the markets. The majority MUST be wrong to create the swings within the economic pendulum. So don’t worry, be happy, we need those people to make money and survive.

When we look at our Dollar Index 1900=Par, we see a starkly bullish chart. The dollar has remained within the uptrend channel for the last century. It has never closed out of it yet. The secondary channel created from the World War I and 1931 high will provide the major technical resistance above the 1985 high when they formed G5 to manipulated the dollar lower creating the 1987 Crash & 1989 Japan Bubble. Even our Energy Model shows the dollar is FAR from over-bought and we can see the flat-line created by Bretton Woods for a brief shining moment. It certainly appears that the US dollar will befuddle everyone as it did before and the A$. We are looking at record highs ABOVE that of 1985 before this flips. So just as the 1980-1985 period when dollar bearishness was at its height yet the dollar rose, we are looking at a similar situation once again.

Both economics and geopolitical trends are conspiring to produce a strong dollar that the majority will never understand until it is too late mumbling - But the Fed increased the money supply! Yes – there is also the other side of that coin, it is called DEMAND!

違約是唯一出路 歐元恐跌至1算







Euro & Cyprus Crisis


The Euro has rebounded but only to retest the Weekly Bearish Reversal. The European Commission fails to understand that they have driven a stake through the heart of the Euro. It will NEVER be a reserve currency without a single debt. This crazy refusal to simply design a normal monetary system will be Europe’s undoing. One could only image what would happen in the USA if all State bonds were reserve quality for banks. How could capital park in the USA? Investors of big money would have to review every State.
Banks would be required to be politically correct and buy all State debts or risk being charged with discrimination. You cannot create a single currency withyout a single debt.

The European Commission on Thursday justified its brain-dead policy publicly saying that the “stability of financial markets and the banking system in Cyprus constitutes a matter of overriding public interest”. I do not know ANY client in Europe of “big” money who is think this secures the banks in Europe. This “overriding public interest” is political talk for simply confiscating you wealth.

As always, politicians and bureaucrats NEVER have any long-term plan. All they focus on is solving the immediate event in front of them and the consequences that they create ahead are never even discussed.

Cyprus was a leading financial center. Europe wanted to SCREW the Russians on top of the German Elections so this is both discrimination as well as political.  They have sentence Cyprus to the stone age. Its financial industry will become extinct. NO international investors will trust Cyprus again and are likely to now begin shifting deposits to the United States and elsewhere such as Singapore, China, and BVI. The Russian should move to Asia for anything now in the West is unstable.

The banks in Cyprus reopened, but under severe currency controls. Checks will not be cashed. Withdrawals are limited to €300 per day. Armed guards had to be stationed at banks to keep order and bank managers are being threatened by Russian. They are lucky they are only Russians. If there were Albanian mobs, they would bulldoze the banks, kill the bank managers, their families, and the and dogs. Even Russian are afraid of the Albanians.

The restrictions are:
  • Daily withdrawals limited to 300 euros
  • Cashing of cheques banned
  • Those travelling abroad can take no more than 1,000 euros out of the country
  • Payments and/or transfers outside Cyprus via debit and or credit cards permitted up to 5,000 euros per month
  • Businesses able to carry out transactions up to 5,000 euros per day
  • Special committee to review commercial transactions between 5,000 and 200,000 euros and approve all those over 200,000 euros on a case-by-case basis
  • No termination of fixed-term deposit accounts before maturity

The restrictions on the free movement of capital represent a profound breach of an EU principle, showing that the Euro is really DEAD on arrival. Reports from Cyprus tell us that foreign depositors had already withdrawn 18% of their cash from the nation’s banks during February. Politicians fail to grasp that people act in anticipation.

Money in a bank is supposed to be safe and Europe has shown that Marxism is still the underlying doctrine of the EU. Cypriots may be orderly under arm guard, but everyone is really very furious with Europe for they feel Brussels has robbed their accounts at gunpoint no different than had the Russians bulldozed the banks. Cypriots are now starting to question their agreement to switch to the euro. They not only got the short straw, they realize this was foolish for they lost their sovereignty and could not compete with Germany economically anyway.

The European Governments are not really interested in saving Cyprus for they see it as a place to hide money they want. However, in Europe’s greed, they have failed to realize to save themselves at the expense of Cyprus, only means nobody in Europe is now safe. There will be no HYPERINFLATION, they will be DEFLATION aided by confiscation.

Cyprus MUST regain its sovereignty and drop the euro returning to the Cypriot Pound. This will be far less painful than most suspect for Cyprus will then be seen as an alternative to the Euro. It has the potential to be the tail to now wag the EU dog. This could be turned around on Brussels.

Cyprus needs to raise only €5.8bn euros ($7.4bn; £4.9bn) to qualify for a 10bn-euro bailout from the European Commission, European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund, the so-called troika. However, Cyprus would be better off telling the European Commission to shove it and put it where the sun does not shine. The European Commission’s actions are despicable, uncivilized, and a shows they are all about them, and never the people.

The European Commission has loss all trust internationally. Our emails and phones have lit up. We have had to keep staff working almost 24 hours. They have shaken the world and shown they are by no means trustworthy. Unless Cyprus turns away from the Euro, it will destroy its own economy to accomplish exactly what? Remain in the Euro that is a failed experiment? Its gas reserves can be used to bridge the gap. It is time for major structural reform and Cyprus can be the focal point if it has the guts. As it stands, these controls will last for months. There is no resolution listening to the European Commission. They are destroying the economic of Cyprus and unemployment will rise dramatically.

2013年3月28日 星期四

Cyprus reopens banks, under strict restrictions

睇下有乜結局 !


(Reuters) - Cypriots are expected to descend in their thousands on Thursday on banks, which reopen with tight controls imposed on transactions to prevent fleeing depositors from cleaning out the vaults in a catastrophic bank run.

The east Mediterranean island fears a stampede at banks almost two weeks after they were shut by the government as it negotiated a 10 billion euro ($12.78 billion) bailout package with the European Union to escape financial meltdown.

The rescue deal is the first in Europe's single currency zone to impose losses on bank depositors, raising the prospect that savers will panic and scramble to get at their cash.
Authorities insist that strict rules imposed to prevent a bank run will be temporary, but economists say they will be difficult to lift as long as the economy is in crisis.

On Wednesday night, container trucks loaded with cash pulled up inside the compound of the central bank in the capital Nicosia to prepare for the reopening, a Cyprus central bank source said. A helicopter hovered overhead and police with rifles were stationed around the compound.

As in all countries that use the euro, Cyprus's central bank supplies cash for its banks from the European Central Bank in Frankfurt. Officials have promised that enough funds will be on hand to meet demand. The ECB did not comment on reports it had sent extra cash to the island.

Strict controls, contained in a Finance Ministry decree, limit cash withdrawals to no more than 300 euros per day, ban the cashing of cheques and bar businesses from transferring money abroad unless they can show it is for imports.

The island's central bank will review all commercial transactions over 5,000 euros and scrutinize transactions over 200,000 euros on an individual basis. People leaving Cyprus can take only 3,000 euros with them.

With just 860,000 people, Cyprus has some 68 billion euros in its banks - a vastly outsized financial system that attracted deposits from foreigners as an offshore haven but foundered after investments in neighboring Greece went sour.

The European Union and International Monetary Fund concluded that Cyprus could not afford a rescue unless it imposed losses on depositors, previously seen as anathema.


Cyprus's financial difficulties have sent tremors through the already fragile single European currency. The imposition of capital controls has led economists to warn that a second-class "Cyprus euro" could emerge, with funds trapped on the island less valuable than euros that can be freely spent abroad.

The authorities say they can avoid that by lifting controls quickly. They have been imposed initially for just four days.

"The rationale is that these measures will be reviewed on a daily basis, so if there is the possibility of relaxing them we will," Yiangos Demetriou, head of internal audit at the Central Bank, told state television.

But many experts are skeptical. A Reuters poll of economists this week showed 30 out of 46 said the controls would last months, while 13 expected they would endure a matter of weeks. Three said they could last years.

"This is a typical set of exchange control measures, more reminiscent of Latin America or Africa," said Bob Lyddon, General Secretary of the international banking association IBOS.

"There is no way these will only last seven days," he said. "These are permanent controls until the economy recovers."
The bailout deal, hammered out in fraught overnight negotiations in Brussels on Monday, looks set to push Cyprus deeper into an economic slump, shrink the banking sector and cost thousands of jobs.

The island's second largest bank, Cyprus Popular Bank will be closed and its guaranteed deposits of up to 100,000 euros transferred to the biggest bank, Bank of Cyprus.
Deposits of more than 100,000 euros at both banks, too big to enjoy a state guarantee, will be frozen, and some of those funds will be exchanged for shares issued by the banks to recapitalize them.

The big depositors will lose money, but the authorities say deposits up to 100,000 euros will be protected, a reversal from an earlier plan that would have hit small depositors as well but was vetoed by Cyprus's parliament last week.

European leaders said the bailout deal averted a chaotic national bankruptcy that might have forced Cyprus out of the euro. Many Cypriots say the deal was foisted upon them by Cyprus's partners in the 17-nation euro zone, and some have taken to the streets to vent their frustration.

On Wednesday, some 2,500 people rallied outside the offices of conservative President Nicos Anastasiades, waving banners and flags. They chanted: "I'll pay nothing; I owe nothing."

For now, residents say they are confused and worried by the capital controls, and wonder how they will affect daily life.

A 42-year-old Romanian hotel maid, who gave her name as Maria, said she was worried she would not be able to cash her pay cheque due on Friday. The hotel, she said, was unable to pay staff in cash because most guests paid by credit card.
"What shall I do?" she asked. "Hold up the cheque and look at it?"

(Additional reporting by Laura Noonan and Costas Pitas; Writing by Matt Robinson; Editing by Peter Graff)

2013年3月27日 星期三


純度 9999
重量 1 oz 31.15 克
寬度 30 毫米
厚度 2.73 毫米
面值 50加元
特徵 小楓葉內有數字[13]

中國銀行買 HKD12,987

Cyprus Debacle Has Turned Into A Disaster For The West


A day after Nigel Farage told King World News the disaster in Cyprus had sparked bank runs in Europe, today acclaimed money manager Stephen Leeb spoke with KWN about what investors around the world should expect next.  Here is what Leeb had to say in this powerful interview:  “Cyprus is truly a disaster for the West.  It basically says to every citizen of the West, if your country runs into trouble the governments can come along and just take your money.  That’s basically what is says.”

“What worries me is if you have an individual who is retired with let’s say 300,000 or 400,000 euros in the bank, and they suddenly find they have had some of their money or a great deal of their money stolen by governments.  Let’s say they are not retired and just run a small business and need to make a payroll.  What happens in that situation?

The funds are frozen and then part of it is stolen.  This is outrageous....

“This could happen now in Spain, Italy, or any of these other countries which are in financial trouble.  It seems like the only country in Europe which is not suffering right now is Germany.

Germany is in a power position in terms of exports because their currency is lower than what it should be because of the eurozone construct.  So they can export like crazy.  People have to remember that what brings about chaos and extremism in countries is depressions.

People think this can’t happen here in the United States, well, I beg to differ.  What would happen if we all woke up tomorrow morning and some disaster has happened and the Suadi oil fields were out of commission?  What’s to say that the US government and the Federal Reserve can’t do the same thing that the ECB, EU, and the IMF just did to Cyprus?  They could end up freezing and seizing our deposits.

What if instead of JP Morgan making a $6 billion bad derivative bet, they make $600 billion in bad derivative bets?  Has anybody asked that question?  All of the sudden there would be no JP Morgan.  Again, what’s to say that they won’t steal our money here in the United States?

This is absolutely the worst precedent that the West could have set.  The fundamental freedom that people in the West enjoy, and that includes Cyprus, Spain, Italy, Ireland, etc, is that the government cannot without any warning confiscate their money.  Call it what it is, this is clear theft and outright confiscation.

That’s the thing to worry about.  I’m incredibly concerned when I see money being confiscated.  This tells me that we are already seeing the makings of totalitarianism in some form.  It’s getting very, very frightening at this stage.”

Leeb had this to say regarding gold:  “Gold continues to see a war going on at the $1,600 level.  It is not in the best interest of the West to see gold do any type of move that would increase its exposure as being an alternative currency.

Once gold begins its next magnificent rise and breaks to new all-time highs there will be even more demand for gold and the people in charge of the West know this.  That’s why they are battling so hard to keep the price suppressed.

This latest series of events in Cyprus just shows how desperate Western central planners have become.  They are not letting the markets trade freely because they would reveal the horror of what has just taken place.  But gold will have its day and so will silver.  Just make sure you have physical gold and silver and not paper.”

資本限制有漏洞 海外可提款 俄資醒目逃出塞國


【本報綜合報道】當人人認為塞浦路斯事件中,俄羅斯富豪商賈是大輸家時,有消息指,他們在塞國銀行關閉並實施資本限制時,靜悄悄將存款調離該國,暫未知有 關金額,但已令人擔心,即使塞國關閉銀行並進行重組自救,恐也因資本急速流走而「湊唔夠數」。 為免國內銀行擠提,財長薩里斯表示銀行將會延至本周四才重開。另逃過關閉命運的塞浦路斯銀行主席Andress Artemis昨突宣佈請辭,外界揣測最大銀行最終亦要關門大吉。

薩里斯表示,資本限制能阻止資金流出該島,估計措施有效期將長達數周。不過,塞國的資本限制形同虛設,據路透社報道,暫時仍未知道究竟在過去一周,逃離塞浦 路斯的資金總額。在塞浦路斯與國際貸款團達成的協議中,該國兩大銀行塞浦路斯銀行(BoC)及大眾銀行(Laiki)被勒令要進行重組,而後者更需要即時 關閉。不過,兩間銀行在海外包括英國的分部,卻在上周繼續營業並未有設下任何提款及資本限制。

資本流走 恐不達標


在塞國經歷了風高浪急一周的時候,幾次傳出有關俄羅斯資金正悄悄流出塞國的傳聞。據報,其中一名與歐盟及國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)磋商的塞國官員,表示大 眾銀行的資本已所剩無幾,暗示即使關閉該行並用存款還債,金額亦難達標。不過,該行前副主席否認,稱銀行的海外客戶存款金額約25億歐元,指即使在銀行關 閉期間亦有資金外流,金額僅數億元。

憂變範例 歐元急挫

相信歐盟及歐洲央行均意識到事態嚴重,德國財長朔伊布勒表示,關閉銀行能限制資金逃離塞國,而歐洲央行正密切注視事態發展,但拒絕提供有關數字。有歐央行 官員與另一歐盟避稅天堂拉脫維亞接觸,指「若他們想加入歐元區,就不要接受俄羅斯從塞浦路斯提走的資金」。

有 報道指,歐元區輪任主席戴賽爾布盧姆於周一表示,今次拯救塞浦路斯的方式,能夠視為救助其他歐洲國家的範例(template),市場擔心要存戶分擔拯救 銀行責任成為常規,令歐元周一急挫1.22%至1.2830美元的4個月低位。雖然戴賽爾布盧姆其後表示,他本人連「template」這個字怎解也不知 道,明顯是將他的說話錯誤解讀。但拯救塞國仍未有細則,不確定性令歐元昨日在低位徘徊,報1.2856。

法兩成樽裝水 含殺蟲藥處方藥 Vittel Volvic有份


不少人對水喉水水質有懷疑,寧願花錢買樽裝水飲用,尤其是法國出品。法國一項礦泉水和樽裝水測試,卻發現這些標榜「天然、健康、純淨」的樽裝水,逾兩成含 微量殺蟲藥或處方藥物殘留物,當中包括本港有售的Vittel和Volvic天然礦泉水。測試機構雖強調水質污染很輕微,可安全飲用,但憂慮長遠可造成 「雞尾酒效應」損害健康。

這次測試是由法國《6,000萬消費者》雜誌和長期關注水源污染問題的「法國自由基金會」合辦,共測試法國市面47個品牌的礦泉水和樽裝水,檢驗是否含有 85種處方藥、殺蟲藥、內分泌干擾物和鄰苯二甲酸酯的殘留物。


測試結果發現,47個品牌中有10個品牌含殘留物,Vittel、Volvic、Cora和Cristaline其中一個水源的樽裝水含微量殺蟲 藥,Saint Amand和Hepar含微量擴血管藥殘留物。最匪夷所思的是,Saint Amand、Mont Roucous、La Salvetat、St Yorre和Carrefour Discount其中一個水源的樽裝水,都驗出微量治乳癌的合成荷爾蒙他莫昔芬(tampxifen)。Perrier、Evian等37個品牌未驗出有殘留物。

驗出雜質的樽裝水,除Vittel和Volvic常見於超市,Saint Amand、Hepar和St Yorre都為本港一些孕婦、媽媽和女士追捧,會網購或遊法時掃貨自用。



Cyprus readies capital controls to avert bank run


(Reuters) - Cyprus is expected to complete capital control measures on Wednesday to prevent a run on the banks by depositors anxious about their savings after the country agreed a painful rescue package with international lenders.

Cypriots have taken to the streets of Nicosia in their thousands to protest at a bailout deal that they fear will push their country into an economic slump and cost many their jobs. European leaders said the deal averted a chaotic national bankruptcy that might have forced Cyprus out of the euro.

With banks due to reopen on Thursday, Finance Minister Michael Sarris said he expected the control measures to be ready by noon (5 a.m. EST) on Wednesday: "I think they will be within the realms of reason," he said, without going into details.

"Banks will open on Thursday ... We will look at the best way to limit the possibility of large sums of money leaving, and not imposing punitive conditions on the economy, businesses and individuals," Sarris said in a Cyprus television interview.

The central bank governor said earlier that "loose" controls would apply temporarily to all banks. Earlier, the finance minister said they could be in place for weeks. Banks have been shut since final bailout talks got under way in mid-March.

Up to 3,000 high school students protested at parliament, the first major expression of popular anger after Cyprus agreed the 10-billion euro ($13-billion) rescue with the European Union, International Monetary Fund and European Central Bank.

"They've just got rid of all our dreams, everything we've worked for, everything we've achieved up until now, what our parents have achieved," said one student, named Thomas.
Outside the central bank, about 200 employees of the country's biggest commercial lender, the Bank of Cyprus, demanded the resignation of the central bank governor, Panicos Demetriades, chanting "Hands off Cyprus" and "Disgrace".

Dimos Dimosthenous, who has worked at the Bank of Cyprus for over 30 years, said: "The bank is being driven to closure.

"That will be the end. Our jobs, our rights, our welfare funds will be lost and Cyprus will be destroyed."


Under the terms of the bailout, the second largest lender, Cyprus Popular Bank, is to be shut down and its accounts of under 100,000 euros combined with those of the Bank of Cyprus. Accounts of more than 100,000 euros at both banks will be frozen, with depositors, many of them rich foreigners, likely to lose much of their investments.

By protecting state-guaranteed deposits of up to 100,000 euros, the bailout reversed a previous deal struck on March 16 that would have imposed a levy on small depositors as well as big ones, which had infuriated Cypriots and was vetoed by parliament. Government officials have estimated big depositors could now face loses of around 40 percent.

Many Cypriots say they do not feel reassured by the new deal, however, and are expected to besiege banks as soon as they reopen after a shutdown that began over a week ago.
The long closure of the banks has hurt business, according to Andreas Hadjiadamou, president of the Cyprus Supermarkets Association, who said consumer confidence had "hit the floor".

Maria Benaki, who runs a family silverware business on Nicosia's biggest shopping street, said she had not had a customer in days.
"The situation is dire," she said. "What will happen at the end of the month when I need to pay my bills?"

2013年3月26日 星期二

A股低殘 藏債務炸彈


上次說過,「2008年底至今,中國的社會融資總量(信貸擴張)佔GDP的比例,也從140%大幅提升到190%……整體國家債務上升速度,比收入增長更 快,而國家整體的收入卻又比生產力增加更快。長此下去,這個國家的經濟泡沫便會形成,外強中乾,最終會把國家經濟推向崩潰。」


有專家就解釋,中國信貸急增不存在大問題,原因有兩個。第一,中國政府的債務佔GDP比例比美國低很多(基於不同的計算方法,中國政府債佔GDP的比例是 19%至30%,美國是87%至100%);第二,如果把總體社會金融融資比例(扣除了股票部份,單看信貸部份,包括了政府債、金融機構債、企業債、銀行 信貸等,見圖),美國的比例是GDP的348%(即是總體金融信貸是一年GDP的三倍多),而中國的比例只是178%(即不足兩倍而已)。不過,筆者認 為,專家之言不無道理,然而「蘋果要與蘋果放在一起比較才叫公平」。
首 先,正如一間上了軌道的企業,發債比例能提高一點,發展中國家的發債比例,一般比已發展國家為低。中國既然自稱為發展中國家,自然要跟其他發展中國家比 較,相對來說,其信貸水平確實高得太多。另外,已發展國家如美國、日本等,金融經濟發展的時間長,而且金融產品相對成熟,金融市場功能化程度甚高,融資活 動、投資及理財產品總量自然佔GDP比例高。
最關鍵的是,信貸相對GDP的增長速度,也是有名的「5-30規則」(即五年內,國家債務佔GDP增 長超過30%)。美國的情況是國家債增,私人債務下降,總體債務持平,中國是國家債表面上不增,企業債(其實包括很多「大得不能倒」的企業,也是有國家包 底,變相是國家債務)卻激增。美國「大得不能倒」的問題,只是限於金融機構,中國卻無論是金融機構,或是龍頭企業,皆是「大得不能倒」的國家負擔!


這解釋了為甚麼,有不少分析認為,A股現水平具一定投資價值,又有不少市場人士大唱反調,警告中國經濟或已出現泡沫。其實,兩大陣營的觀點沒有衝突,A股 價值低殘,其中一個原因是市場已把這個信貸危機的預期,計算在股票的估值裏。
又 有人說,眼見日本的巨型信貸泡沫爆破後迷失20年多,美國次按風暴後的6年多巨型衰退,和現今還沒有出路的歐債危機,中國會有所警惕而不會重蹈覆徹;但事 實擺在眼前,中國的信貸增長已屆危險邊緣,其後遺症正漸漸蠶食實體經濟的發展,使長遠經濟發展付上極大的代價。


歐洲富戶驚打壓搬錢走 熱錢湧亞洲 人民幣新高


【本報訊】兩會後市場對經濟及人民幣走勢,樂觀情緒增加,加上歐洲資金湧向亞洲,人民幣繼上周三見新高後,昨收市再創歷史高位,開盤不久一度升穿每美元兌 6.21人幣水平,為1994年人幣併軌並走向市場化後,19年來最強水平。銀行界指,短期內人幣仍偏強,升破6.2關口指日可待。

塞浦路斯取得解決方案,以免陷於金融崩潰,外圍市場非美元貨幣的走勢皆回勇,但財資界指出,該國對大額存戶採凍結資產激烈手段,可能觸發歐元區尤其是歐豬 國的富戶神經,加快資金向外流竄速度,歐美地區流向美元資產、英國及瑞士,亞洲則分散至大中華市場。今年以來亞洲貨幣強勢(見表),如泰銖升逾4%,人民 幣相對落後,年內只升0.42%,但近期升勢加快。

逼6.2關 年內升值0.42%

人民幣境內在岸價(CNY),昨日開市不久即見每美元兌6.2095人幣,期後一直在6.21邊緣徘徊,收報每美元兌6.2107人幣,亦是2005年實 施滙改以來的歷史高位,年初至今人幣已經升值0.42%,單是自月初兩會開幕以來,人幣亦已升值0.16%;兩會於17日閉幕,上周中人幣亦創 6.2118新高。
恒 生銀行私人銀行及信託服務主管陸庭龍認為,兩會結束後,市場轉而期望短期會否有措施出台支持經濟,「氣氛無咁悲觀」,扭轉經濟下行憂慮,故此短期內人幣走 勢仍會向上,「升破6.2關口應該可以」,介乎6.18至6.19徘徊亦屬合理,但一下子大幅升穿「六算」,則機會不大。


塞 國與歐盟雖達成協議,但以非常手段凍結大戶資產強制重組,他預期可能影響歐豬各國富戶,加速資金環球流竄的速度及密度。陸庭龍亦說,過去一兩年,因「驚抽 重稅」,歐洲富戶已陸續將資金分散至美元區資產,歐洲整個地區的資金則流向英國及瑞士,塞國方案或會進一步觸動西班牙或意大利等國的富戶神經,在環球形勢穩定下,再分散部份資金流向亞洲。

英人聯署 促恢復統治香港

開始搞香港 ! 英國都自身難保, 信佢的香港人會自毀前途 !



英 國政府網上聯署平台e-petition,昨日出現一個要求英國外交及國協事務部介入、協助港人爭取民主的聯署,發起人名為Ethan Turner。聯署內容指,越來越多香港人憎恨中國,不滿中國拒絕給予香港民主,「很多人更加想英國恢復統治香港,英國可以與中國協商取回香港,建立一個 權力下放的政府或者讓香港獨立」。



Where can I put my money for 10 years ?

睇來歐美革命才是唯一出路抗班精英 !


The purpose of the Sovereign Debt Crisis Conference that was filmed for a movie is not to say gee where can I put my money for 10 years and not worry about it. That does not exist. We are facing the meltdown of society as government gets more controlling than ever in history. Switzerland was even respected by Hitler. Today, borders mean nothing and government will do anything for the money. So buying gold presents even more of a problem than at anytime in history. They track everything and buying bullion today leaves a paper trail so if they confiscate gold today, forget bank storage, private storage facilities, for there is no longer any privacy. Americans have been thrown out of everywhere. They cannot store gold in Europe. Electronic money can be seized anywhere. Nothing will escape the greedy hands of government today. They can cancel currencies, outlaw gold, and unplug entire countries like Iran and the Vatican until they comply. They can resort to FORCED LOANS where they just take what you have replacing it with government bonds. In Cyprus, they just confiscated 10% as a tax. So if you really think there is some safe place to put your money, wake up and smell the roses before the close the casket.

As crazy as it sounds, the only way to confront what we are facing as a society is to understand WHAT is actually money for therein lies all the solutions. If we realize that money is never a constant or some fictional store of value but has always fluctuated in purchasing power regardless of what it has been, then we must look at the issue objectively. For money always buys more in times or crisis as assets plummet in value, and money buys less in economic booms as its purchasing power declines. Money was gold between 1921 and 1929 and shares rose in terms of gold during that economic boom, then gold rose in purchasing power as assets declined since it was MONEY during the Great Depression. When gold was NOT money, it rose against dollars between 1971 into 1974, then declined from about $200 to $100 into 1976 with that economic decline. This has historically always been the rise and fall of money regardless of what it has been. Both Marx and Keynes declared the business cycle was dead. The markets have proved both dead wrong.

If we realize that money has become like a share rising and falling in value based upon confidence in the economy, then perhaps we can make the next leap forward in this evolutionary process that will RESTORE our liberty and create a more secure world. Saying where to keep your money for the next 10 years does NOTHING for your future or your posterity if we lose our freedom. Those who only ask that question cannot see the forest for the tree. If you think you can profit from such a situation without confronting the issues or solutions, then you fail to comprehend that there may be no place left to spend your profits on hidden treasure if it is illegal to conduct any trade outside of the recognized systems. We will reach the POINT-OF-NO-RETURN where we either go down the path of full totalitarianism that Marx argued for, or we turn back from the abyss and return to FREEDOM and individual liberty. Think this can be simply address with where do we put our money – good luck. You have missed the real crisis that we face.

It is not just the United States with a debt and in fact we are in the best shape so it is not the dollar. EVERYONE has borrowed year-after-year with no intent of paying anyone back. The amount of accumulative interest expenditures as a portion of the outstanding national debts is about 70% on a global scale. Pictured here is Germany and they are in the best shape within Europe. This is the time bomb that is building and there is no escaping this crisis. The interest expenditures will continue to rise as a total proportion of the national debts and government will aggressively raise taxes and enforce those on the books stupidly trying to keep this game going with no comprehension where it leads. So no matter what you invest in, the idea of making a profit ASSUMES that society survives and you are making the same short-sighted view as politicians. Unless we confront this very serious issue of a Sovereign Debt Crisis, we could end up in world wars where money really becomes worthless in any event. Not even gold will survive if the infrastructure is no longer there.

We must address a basis question. Those who cannot comprehend what is really at stake will just be fixated on “where do I put my money” and could careless that the barn is burning down around them. The core issue is if money is INTANGIBLE and is simply electronic, then we must ask two critical questions:

(1) why do we borrow with no intent of paying anything back, and
(2) why do we need taxes if money is INTANGIBLE?

If government simply created the money it needs to fund itself within a fixed limit of say 5% of GDP annually, then two issues emerge. First, there would be no borrowing so the debts would be about 33% of what they are today meaning that the purchasing power of money right now would be significantly higher. Second, we do not need taxation for it is silly to tax everyone when money is INTANGIBLE. Taxes were necessary ONLY when money was TANGIBLE. We have moved beyond that. If money is INTANGIBLE, then government can also be much smaller for it is pointless to hunt down people to get money in taxes when we create most of that money through borrowing and interest payments anyway. About 70% of all money created is going to bondholders. The higher that rises, the slower the economic growth and the worse the future appears.

Unemployment among the youth on a global scale is simply unsustainable (see Above chart). Even in the USA, kids graduating from college are being forced to create their own jobs. This is warning that we face massive economic problems ahead. Government harassing people, taxing the hell out of everyone, and over-regulating small business while taking handout from the favorite big entities, is destroying our future as a viable society. This corruption is leading to the collapse of Western Society and if we do not blink, then forget investing in anything – for there will be no infrastructure to spend anything in.

The nonsense from people that think gold will save them is unsupported by history. When Rome fell, there was nothing left. Society collapsed into a Dark Age. The population of Rome abandoned the cities becoming almost a Mad Max scenario. This is far more serious than: “Gee, where do I park my money for 10 years?” 

We MUST understand what is MONEY. That is the first question for all things flow from there including debt to monetary reform. We hope to have this session out on a DVD. It was filmed for a movie that independent producers hope to show around the world for this is far more important than simply where to put your money. That alone will not guarantee our survival. Unfortunately, there are those who cannot see beyond their nose and insisting upon a return to the gold standard implies the destruction of banks, collapse of politics, and the need for taxation and the surrender of all personal liberties. We need governmental reform from the ground up and a restoration of no direct taxation. This is just the starting point. The tree is falling. The question is which way will it go – totalitarianism where Homeland Security wants to take us, or Liberty and the original design of the Founding Fathers? That is what confronts us and no strategy for investment will survive if we no longer have a free society.

2013年3月25日 星期一

Switzerland Next


It has been no secret that in the aftermath of the crackdown of the Obama administration on Swiss-based "whale" accounts, Swiss banks promptly gave up on the legacy model of bank secrecy which allowed them to fund a massive banking sector that has assets (and therefore liabilities) six times greater than the GDP of Switzerland. That this has led to a literal Swiss fear and loathing of anything American, is no surprise: after all banks have blamed the informal US accords, in which the US DOJ can now expose any and every Swiss bank client for the massive layoffs that have ensued in the past several years, hitting not only megabanks UBS and Credit Suisse, but all the smaller players as well.

Now, in the aftermath of the deposit tax in Cyprus, it appears that "wealth taxation" in Switzerland is about to be taken up a notch.

As the leading Zurich financial media NZZ reported and Reuters summarized, the country has reached a deal in principle with the United States over undeclared funds hidden by wealthy Americans in Swiss offshore bank accounts. Naturally, the state was quick to deny it - after all, the last thing they need is a prompt exodus of all big offshore accounts held locally as fears of a Cyprus "wealth tax" on big accounts spreads.
Alas, this may be precisely what is happening. From Reuters :

The plan outlined by the NZZ am Sonntag would see each Swiss bank with U.S. clients negotiating individual settlements with the United States for its role in hiding untaxed money.

Most of the 13 banks in the crosshairs of U.S. justice officials, which include Credit Suisse and Julius Baer, have said they are already in settlement negotiations.

What is new is that the remainder of Switzerland's more than 300 banks with U.S. clients would have to seek a U.S. settlement individually, according to the NZZ.

This in itself is not news. This next part, however, is:

Those banks would be required to "motivate" remaining U.S. clients to come clean to U.S. tax officials. If they failed to do so, confidential bank data would be forwarded to U.S. officials. The initial shipment of data from those banks would not include client names but, based on the data, U.S. officials would be able to submit a judicial aid requests to get the names of alleged tax evaders, the newspaper said.

So after all US "whale" accounts, aka alleged tax evaders, have their bank data fully exposed to the US government which will operate under the assumption (hardly too incorrect) that all  US accounts in Switzerland have evaded taxes and thus are subject to the US government's just as forcible wealth re-appropriation, how long until all other European nations, most of them just as broke as the US, follow suit?

The question then is: how many of the oligarchs, Russian or otherwise, who avoided a complete wipe out and total capital controls in Cyprus, will wait to find out if the same fate will befall them in Switzerland? Or Luxembourg? Or Lichtenstein? Or Singapore?
Or any other formerly considered "tax-haven" nation?

Finally, is it clear yet to the world's uber-wealthy that the 2013 hunting season is now open, and that they, or rather their deposits, are the prey of every socialist government in the entire world?




3900億供貸款基建 9300億聯合儲備

消息人士稱,組建全新發展銀行的議案,由印度和南非主導的工作小組提出,至於外匯儲備庫方案,則是巴西領導的工作小組提出。有金磚五國官員稱,這兩個項目的規模尚未落實,但巴西貿易部長皮曼德爾上周五稱,這個全新開發銀行規模將達500億美元(約3882億港元),為特定計劃如基建項目等提供貸款, 至於聯合外匯儲備庫規模最多為1200億美元(約9316億港元),以應付成員國緊急需要,例如在經濟困難時予以資金支持,或用來在全球經濟危機爆發時穩定經濟。目前金磚五國佔全球四分之一GDP和四成人口。

中國外交部官員早前稱,中方期望金磚五國峰會能在開發銀行問題上有新進展,而成員國領袖亦能就設立外匯儲備庫一事積極表態。俄羅斯副外長里亞布科夫 認為,推動上述兩項計劃,是鞏固金磚五國在經濟、國際金融和基建發展作用的一個重要步驟,期望擁有可觀資本量的新銀行,未來能為成員國基建項目融資。

由於這兩項構思的功能,正好與世銀和IMF相近,有西方官員對此抱懷疑態度。有經濟專家指出,金磚成員國中,南非、印度和巴西近期經濟增長緩慢,組建新開發銀行的一部分原因,正是為了注入新血,「那是這些國家生存能力的試金石」。世銀首席經濟師巴蘇(Kaushik Basu)則形容新的開發銀行可做到很多事,但要成立它將是「巨大無比的任務」。



Last-minute Cyprus deal to close bank, force losses

本人見唔到是好消息呀 ! 有錢人會說: 拜拜 Europe !


(Reuters) - Cyprus clinched a last-ditch deal with international lenders to shut down its second largest bank and inflict heavy losses on uninsured depositors, including wealthy Russians, in return for a 10 billion euro ($13 billion) bailout.

The agreement came hours before a deadline to avert a collapse of the banking system in fraught negotiations between President Nicos Anastasiades and heads of the European Union, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund.

Swiftly endorsed by euro zone finance ministers, the plan will spare the east Mediterranean island a financial meltdown by winding down Popular Bank of Cyprus, also known as Laiki, and shifting deposits below 100,000 euros to the Bank of Cyprus to create a "good bank".

Deposits above 100,000 euros in both banks, which are not guaranteed under EU law, will be frozen and used to resolve Laiki's debts and recapitalize Bank of Cyprus through a deposit/equity conversion.

The raid on uninsured Laiki depositors is expected to raise 4.2 billion euros, Eurogroup chairman Jeroen Dijssebloem said.

Laiki will effectively be shuttered, with thousands of job losses. Officials said senior bondholders in Laiki would be wiped out and those in Bank of Cyprus would have to make a contribution.

An EU spokesman said no across-the-board levy or tax would be imposed on deposits in Cypriot banks, although the hit on large account holders in the two biggest banks is likely to be far greater than initially planned. A first attempt at a deal last week collapsed when the Cypriot parliament rejected a proposed levy on all deposits.

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said lawmakers would not need to vote on the new scheme, since they had already enacted a law setting procedures for bank resolution.

"It can't be done without a bail-in in both banks... This is bitter for Cyprus but we now have the result that the (German) government always stood up for," Schaeuble told reporters, saying he was sure the German parliament would approve.

A senior source in the talks said Anastasiades threatened to resign at one stage on Sunday if he was pushed too far. He left EU headquarters without making any comment.

Conservative leader Anastasiades, barely a month in office and wrestling with Cyprus' worst crisis since a 1974 invasion by Turkish forces split the island in two, was forced to back down on his efforts to shield big account holders.

Diplomats said the president had fought hard to preserve the country's business model as an offshore financial centre drawing huge sums from wealthy Russians and Britons but had lost.

The EU and IMF required that Cyprus raise 5.8 billion euros from its banking sector towards its own financial rescue in return for 10 billion euros in international loans. The head of the EU rescue fund said Cyprus should receive the first emergency funds in May.

With banks closed for the last week, the Central Bank of Cyprus imposed a 100-euros per day limit on withdrawals from cash machines at the two biggest banks to avert a run.
French Finance Minister Pierre Moscovici rejected charges that the EU had brought Cypriots to their knees, saying it was the island's offshore business model that had failed.

"To all those who say that we are strangling an entire people ... Cyprus is a casino economy that was on the brink of bankruptcy," he said.

The euro gained against the dollar on the news in early Asian trading.

Analysts had said failure to clinch a deal could cause a financial market selloff, but some said the island's small size - it accounts for just 0.2 percent of the euro zone's economic output - meant contagion would be limited.

The abandoned plan for a levy on bank deposits had unsettled investors since it represented an unprecedented step in Europe's handling of a debt crisis that has spread from Greece, to Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy.


In the Cypriot capital, Nicosia, the mood on Sunday was anxious.

"I haven't felt so uncertain about the future since I was 13 and Cyprus was invaded," said Dora Giorgali, 53, a nursery teacher who lost her job two years ago when the school she worked at closed down.

"I have two children studying abroad and I tell them not to return to Cyprus. Imagine a mother saying that," she said in a central Nicosia square.

Cyprus's banking sector, with assets eight times the size of its economy, has been crippled by exposure to Greece, where private bondholders suffered a 75 percent "haircut" last year.

Without a deal by the end of Monday, the ECB said it would have cut off emergency funds to the banks, spelling certain collapse and potentially pushing the country out of the euro.

Under the bailout agreement, Laiki's ECB funds will pass to Bank of Cyprus and the central bank will "provide liquidity to BoC in line with applicable rules".

Anticipating a run when banks reopen on Tuesday, parliament has given the government powers to impose capital controls.


About 200 bank employees protested outside the presidential palace on Sunday chanting "troika out of Cyprus" and "Cyprus will not become a protectorate".

In a stunning vote on Tuesday, the 56-seat parliament rejected a levy on depositors, big and small. Finance Minister Michael Sarris then spent three fruitless days in Moscow trying to win help from Russia, whose citizens and companies have billions of euros at stake in Cypriot banks.

On Friday, lawmakers voted to nationalize pension funds and split failing lenders into good and bad banks - the measure to be applied to Laiki. The plan to tap pension funds was shelved due to German opposition, a Cypriot official said.

The tottering banks held 68 billion euros in deposits, including 38 billion in accounts of more than 100,000 euros - enormous sums for an island of 1.1 million people which could never sustain such a big financial system on its own.

($1 = 0.7694 euros)

(Additional reporting by Luke Baker, John O'Donnell, Robin Emmott, Philip Blenkinsop and Rex Merrifield in Brussels, Michele Kambas, Karolina Tagaris, Costas Pitas in Nicosia and Lionel Laurent in Paris. Writing by Paul Taylor, editing by Mike Peacock)

2013年3月24日 星期日

The Cyprus Bank Battle: The Long-planned Deposit Confiscation Scheme

the BRIC countries – Brazil, Russia, India and China –

呢四個國家因為有自己的國家銀行, 所以可以保持銀行的獨立性唔俾人溶咗 !


Global Research, March 22, 2013
“If these worries become really serious, . . . [s]mall savers will take their money out of banks and resort to household safes and a shotgun.”    — Martin Hutchinson on the attempted EU raid on private deposits in Cyprus banks
The deposit confiscation scheme has long been in the making.  US depositors could be next …
On Tuesday, March 19, the national legislature of Cyprus overwhelmingly rejected a proposed levy on bank deposits as a condition for a European bailout.  Reuters called it “a stunning setback for the 17-nation currency bloc,” but it was a stunning victory for democracy. As Reuters quoted one 65-year-old pensioner, “The voice of the people was heard.”
The EU had warned that it would withhold €10 billion in bailout loans, and the European Central Bank (ECB) had threatened to end emergency lending assistance for distressed Cypriot banks, unless depositors – including small savers – shared the cost of the rescue. In the deal rejected by the legislature, a one-time levy on depositors would be required in return for a bailout of the banking system. Deposits below €100,000 would be subject to a 6.75% levy or “haircut”, while those over €100,000 would have been subject to a 9.99% “fine.”
The move was bold, but the battle isn’t over yet.  The EU has now given Cyprus until Monday to raise the billions of euros it needs to clinch an international bailout or face the threatened collapse of its financial system and likely exit from the euro currency zone.

The Long-planned Confiscation Scheme

The deal pushed by the “troika” – the EU, ECB and IMF – has been characterized as a one-off event devised as an emergency measure in this one extreme case. But the confiscation plan has long been in the making, and it isn’t limited to Cyprus.
In a September 2011 article in the Bulletin of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand titled “A Primer on Open Bank Resolution,” Kevin Hoskin and Ian Woolford discussed a very similar haircut plan that had been in the works, they said, since the 1997 Asian financial crisis.  The article referenced recommendations made in 2010 and 2011 by the Basel Committee of the Bank for International Settlements, the “central bankers’ central bank” in Switzerland.
The purpose of the plan, called the Open Bank Resolution (OBR) , is to deal with bank failures when they have become so expensive that governments are no longer willing to bail out the lenders. The authors wrote that the primary objectives of OBR are to:
  • ensure that, as far as possible, any losses are ultimately borne by the bank’s shareholders and creditors . . . .
The spectrum of “creditors” is defined to include depositors:
At one end of the spectrum, there are large international financial institutions that invest in debt issued by the bank (commonly referred to as wholesale funding). At the other end of the spectrum, are customers with cheque and savings accounts and term deposits.
Most people would be surprised to learn that they are legally considered “creditors” of their banks rather than customers who have trusted the bank with their money for safekeeping, but that seems to be the case. According to Wikipedia:
In most legal systems, . . . the funds deposited are no longer the property of the customer. The funds become the property of the bank, and the customer in turn receives an asset called a deposit account (a checking or savings account). That deposit account is a liability of the bank on the bank’s books and on its balance sheet.  Because the bank is authorized by law to make loans up to a multiple of its reserves, the bank’s reserves on hand to satisfy payment of deposit liabilities amounts to only a fraction of the total which the bank is obligated to pay in satisfaction of its demand deposits.
The bank gets the money. The depositor becomes only a creditor with an IOU. The bank is not required to keep the deposits available for withdrawal but can lend them out, keeping only a “fraction” on reserve, following accepted fractional reserve banking principles. When too many creditors come for their money at once, the result can be a run on the banks and bank failure.
The New Zealand OBR said the creditors had all enjoyed a return on their investments and had freely accepted the risk, but most people would be surprised to learn that too. What return do you get from a bank on a deposit account these days? And isn’t your deposit protected against risk by FDIC deposit insurance?
Not anymore, apparently. As Martin Hutchinson observed in Money Morning, “if governments can just seize deposits by means of a ‘tax’ then deposit insurance is worth absolutely zippo.”

The Real Profiteers Get Off Scot-Free

Felix Salmon wrote in Reuters of the Cyprus confiscation:
Meanwhile, people who deserve to lose money here, won’t. If you lent money to Cyprus’s banks by buying their debt rather than by depositing money, you will suffer no losses at all. And if you lent money to the insolvent Cypriot government, then you too will be paid off at 100 cents on the euro. . . .
The big winner here is the ECB, which has extended a lot of credit to dubiously-solvent Cypriot banks and which is taking no losses at all.
It is the ECB that can most afford to take the hit, because it has the power to print euros. It could simply create the money to bail out the Cyprus banks and take no loss at all. But imposing austerity on the people is apparently part of the plan.  Salmon writes:
From a drily technocratic perspective, this move can be seen as simply being part of a standard Euro-austerity program: the EU wants tax hikes and spending cuts, and this is a kind of tax . . . .
The big losers are working-class Cypriots, whose elected government has proved powerless . . . . The Eurozone has always had a democratic deficit: monetary union was imposed by the elite on unthankful and unwilling citizens. Now the citizens are revolting: just look at Beppe Grillo.
But that was before the Cyprus government stood up for the depositors and refused to go along with the plan, in what will be a stunning victory for democracy if they can hold their ground.

It CAN Happen Here

Cyprus is a small island, of little apparent significance. But one day, the bold move of its legislators may be compared to the Battle of Marathon, the pivotal moment in European history when their Greek forebears fended off the Persians, allowing classical Greek civilization to flourish.  The current battle on this tiny island has taken on global significance.  If the technocrat bankers can push through their confiscation scheme there, precedent will be established for doing it elsewhere when bank bailouts become prohibitive for governments.

That situation could be looming even now in the United States.  As Gretchen Morgenson warned in a recent article on the 307-page Senate report detailing last year’s $6.2 billion trading fiasco at JPMorganChase: “Be afraid.”  The report resoundingly disproves the premise that the Dodd-Frank legislation has made our system safe from the reckless banking activities that brought the economy to its knees in 2008. Writes Morgenson:
JPMorgan . . . Is the largest derivatives dealer in the world. Trillions of dollars in such instruments sit on its and other big banks’ balance sheets. The ease with which the bank hid losses and fiddled with valuations should be a major concern to investors.

Pam Martens observed in a March 18th article that JPMorgan was gambling in the stock market with depositor funds. She writes, “trading stocks with customers’ savings deposits – that truly has the ring of the excesses of 1929 . . . .”

The large institutional banks not only could fail; they are likely to fail.  When the derivative scheme collapses and the US government refuses a bailout, JPMorgan could be giving its depositors’ accounts sizeable “haircuts” along guidelines established by the BIS and Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

Time for Some Public Sector Banks?

The bold moves of the Cypriots and such firebrand political activists as Italy’s Grillo are not the only bulwarks against bankster confiscation. While the credit crisis is strangling the Western banking system, the BRIC countries – Brazil, Russia, India and China – have sailed through largely unscathed. According to a May 2010 article in The Economist, what has allowed them to escape are their strong and stable publicly-owned banks.

Professor Kurt von Mettenheim of the Sao Paulo Business School of Brazil writes, “The credit policies of BRIC government banks help explain why these countries experienced shorter and milder economic downturns during 2007-2008.” Government banks countered the effects of the financial crisis by providing counter-cyclical credit and greater client confidence.

Russia is an Eastern European country that weathered the credit crisis although being very close to the Eurozone. According to a March 2010 article in Forbes:
As in other countries, the [2008] crisis prompted the state to take on a greater role in the banking system.  State-owned systemic banks . . . have been used to carry out anticrisis measures, such as driving growth in lending (however limited) and supporting private institutions.

In the 1998 Asian crisis, many Russians who had put all their savings in private banks lost everything; and the credit crisis of 2008 has reinforced their distrust of private banks.  Russian businesses as well as individuals have turned to their government-owned banks as the more trustworthy alternative. As a result, state-owned banks are expected to continue dominating the Russian banking industry for the foreseeable future.

The entire Eurozone conundrum is unnecessary. It is the result of too little money in a system in which the money supply is fixed, and the Eurozone governments and their central banks cannot issue their own currencies. There are insufficient euros to pay principal plus interest in a pyramid scheme in which only the principal is injected by the banks that create money as “bank credit” on their books. A central bank with the power to issue money could remedy that systemic flaw, by injecting the liquidity needed to jumpstart the economy and turn back the tide of austerity choking the people.

The push to confiscate the savings of hard-working Cypriot citizens is a shot across the bow for every working person in the world, a wake-up call to the perils of a system in which tiny cadres of elites call the shots and the rest of us pay the price. When we finally pull back the veils of power to expose the men pulling the levers in an age-old game they devised, we will see that prosperity is indeed possible for all.