2017年11月23日 星期四

“President Trump May Need To Look At A New US Treasury Gold Buy Program…”


by Stewart Thomson of Graceland Updates

Nov 21, 2017
  1. Gold surged higher on Friday.  Then it gave all the gains back yesterday.  Looking beyond this short term noise, gold is not an exciting market right now. What could make that change?
  2. See this gold chart. Gold is trading in a rough sideways trend with an upside bias.  This bias continues to strengthen, albeit very slowly.  The technical action reflects the fundamentals and liquidity flows and clearly, patience.
  3. On that note, please click here now. I jokingly refer to the SPDR fund as “Spider Man”.  Chindian demand is decent, but Spider Man looks like he’s caught in his own web; while there’s no significant selling, buying has come to a standstill.
  4. If Chindian demand is solid, gold doesn’t really need a lot of Western fear trade buying to move higher, but it must have some.  That’s just not happening right now.
  5. The winds of change may be in the air, with US wage inflation pressures intensifying, an approaching debt ceiling debate, and a new Fed chair who stands ready to significantly reduce bank regulation.
  6. Without a bull cycle in money velocity, gold stocks and silver stocks will have a very hard time outperforming bullion on a consistent basis.
  7. The good news: these winds of change (especially the small bank deregulation favoured by Fed chair Powell) mean there is a very high probability that US money velocity ends its two decade bear market in 2018.
  8. Like Reagan, Trump’s administration is decreasing regulation and taxes while increasing debt.  The main difference is that Reagan operated at the start of a business up cycle and at the end of an inflationary era.  So, the Reagan administration could deflect government debt growth concerns with positive economic growth accolades.
  9. In contrast, the Trump administration is operating in the tail end of the business up cycle and in the tail end of a deflationary era.  The bottom line: US GDP can grow for another year or two and hit 4% to 6% on the upside, but liquidity is going to flow from Wall Street and government bonds into the fractional reserve banking system as that happens.
  10. That’s because of quantitative tightening and rate hikes.  Elderly American savers have essentially been nuked by QE and interest rates that are at multi-generational lows.  Goldman predicts nine rate hikes in 2018 – 2019.  I predict six, and the Fed dot plot suggests there will be seven.
  11. Whatever the number turns out of be, with a tail wind of tax cuts and bank deregulation, significant liquidity flows are going to move into thousands of America’s small banks.
  12. From there, it won’t be wasted on government bonds, which is deflationary.  It won’t be used for stock market buybacks to give scummy corporate fat cats giant bonuses instead of giving American workers a pay raise.
  13. That money is going to go to Main street small business loans, and money velocity stands to make a significant reversal as that happens.
  14. As the business cycle peaks, even more money is going to flow into these banks… and into gold.  In an economic downturn, Trump may need to look at unconventional policy like a new US Treasury gold buy program and high tariffs to manage the huge US government debt.
  15. See this dollar-yen chart.  Different price drivers drive the gold price at different times.  Sometimes gold leads a market, and at other times it follows.  Currently, gold is playing follow the dollar-yen leader.
  16. An important head and shoulders top is forming on the dollar against the yen.  I told my intestinally fortified readers to prepare for some gold market pain early yesterday morning, and the “reign of pain” arrived just hours later, exactly on cue!
  17. Nothing is out of order here.  The dollar is rallying to form a right shoulder high against the yen, and that’s putting annoying but modest pressure on gold.  Without the institutional support for gold stocks that comes with rising money velocity (particularly M2), the stocks get hit a lot harder than bullion.
  18. Fund managers like Ray Dalio recommend keeping 5% to 10% of assets in gold.  Ray owns a lot of gold stocks as well.  In the gold community, gold is generally owned more aggressively, often representing 40% in an investor’s portfolio, and more!
  19. I have no issue with the higher percentages (and partake in them myself).  To build retained wealth (and maintain emotional stability) in the sector though, gold bugs need to buy significant price weakness.
  20. Holding some assets besides bullion and the miners is also important.  Just as gold is a stock/bond investor’s tool to maximize returns and reduce drawdowns, mainstream stocks and bonds serve a gold investor in the same way.  
  21. On that note, please click here now.  Double-click to enlarge.  I coined the term “gold bull era” to describe the long term growth of gold demand related to growth in China, India, and other Asian and mid-East markets.
  22. Please click here now.  Double-click to enlarge. I’ve highlighted a solid upside breakout from a massive triangle pattern on this South Korean stock market ETF chart.  I urge all gold bugs to buy and hold some China, India, South Korea, and Japan stock market ETFs and individual stocks.  The bottom line: The Asian stock market upside breakouts represent stage one of the gold bull era.  Don’t miss out on the wealth building fun!
  23. Please click here now. Another great holding for gold bugs is bitcoin.  A lot of investors ask me how bitcoin staged a “forty bagger” move while gold has gone nowhere.  The answer is simply that the supply of bitcoin is only 21 million coins.  My long term (not that long) target for bitcoin is $500,000.  If the supply of gold was only 21 million ounces, gold would already easily be at $500,000, but the demand-supply balance for gold is much more even (for now) than it is for bitcoin.  Bitcoin shouldn’t be viewed as a competitor to gold.  I’ve labelled bitcoin a positive member of the precious metals asset class family,and predicted it will play a major role in the gold bull era.
  24. Please click here now.  Double-click to enlarge this exciting Chow Tai Fook chart. Chow is the largest gold jewellery retailer in China.  I cover the wealth building action for Chow in my www.gracelandjuniors.com newsletter.  Chow’s price action is also a truly vital indicator of what lies ahead for the Western gold mining stocks.  It looks set to usher in the new year with an upside blast higher from a broadening consolidating pattern which should send the miners higher too!

聯儲局擔心低通脹 美元兌日圓下挫1%





2018 Australia 1/10 oz Gold Kangaroo BU

2018年1/10盎司澳洲普製鴻運金幣在LPM買, 現LPM賣1199一枚, Kitco 賣1199.13一枚 !

星期二取貨時經過恒生問過沒返貨 !


2017 Australia 1/10 oz Gold Kangaroo BU

恒生銀行今年早咗來貨, 所以昨天去咗買2017年1/10盎司普製鴻運金幣, 有 capsule 附送, 1155蚊 !


2016 Australia 1/10 oz Gold Kangaroo BU

Year:     2016
Grade:     Brilliant Unc
Denomination:     $15
Mint Mark:     P - Perth Mint
Metal Content:     0.1 troy oz
Purity:     .9999
Thickness:     1.3 mm
Diameter:     16.1 mm
Mintage of 200,000 coins
Manufacturer:     Perth Mint

2016年1/10盎司澳洲袋鼠普製金幣, 在 Kitco 買1108.91蚊, 因為恒生沒咁快有貨, 所以乘 Kitco 近來有小金幣買住先, 因為沒知金價會點走 !

英財相夏文達下調GDP預測 房策干預力度加大









投資乜都好, 一定要先識基本知識, 所以最好先睇完本網誌成個[投資金銀手冊]後先好落場買野 !
投資實金實銀, 一唔訓身, 二唔借錢, 三只用閒錢買貨 !

想易套現就買實金(註:實金差價大, 也不大適宜短炒的), 而實銀是長線投資 !!

實銀心急放就拿去上環忠記溶金舖一定可以套現, 不過只拿回純銀價, 可能靚野會俾返多少少錢你, 而想高價放就拿去網拍 !

世上無 sure win, 也無不勞而獲, 唔經分析亂投資後果自負, 到時輸錢唔好怨任何人 !


本人已開多個[收藏幣介紹]分區來貼收藏幣, 唔係個[投資金銀手冊]會變得太長, 導致想睇實金實銀知識的人須睇多好多文貼 !

低溢價幣如楓葉/鷹楊/愛樂和增值幣如澳洲生肖會留在[投資金銀手冊]分區, 雖然收藏幣也可以變為增值幣, 而低溢價幣和增值幣也可以變為收藏幣 !

新人開始買實金實銀時, 多數會去計價買邊隻實貨會最平, 但之後買下買下就會愈買愈高溢價金銀幣, 而最後只為靚而買不再理價錢 !

近來發現, 原來有一班人是由收藏開始才接觸金銀幣, 所以收藏幣是有出路的, 不過一定要限制自己唔好中曬收藏毒癮買太多和太貴的金銀幣, 因為自己出發點是投資 !

所以買收藏幣, 只會選又有特色而又唔太貴的金銀幣來買 !

2017年11月22日 星期三


呢枚2018索馬里非洲象普製1盎司銀幣在Kitco 買, 現Kitco 賣175.54蚊一枚, 一筒20枚賣159.87蚊/1枚 ! 須自買燈塔牌39mm capsule 和玻璃膠袋來裝 !

2017索馬里非洲象普製1盎司銀幣在LPM買, 177蚊1枚, 須自買燈塔牌39mm capsule 和玻璃膠袋來裝 !

2016索馬里非洲象普製1盎司銀幣在LPM買, 148蚊1枚, 須自買燈塔牌39mm capsule 和玻璃膠袋來裝 !

須留意的是, 索馬里非洲象普製1盎司銀幣由2016年開始, 純度已由999轉為9999 !



又是買新發行的大笨象銀幣的時候啦, 在SCS Apmex 團買, 189.60蚊, 愈買愈平, 真開心 !



在 SCS 買240蚊一枚, 跟貼銀價 !



2013 1 oz Silver Somalian African Elephant
Minted in Germany, the Silver Elephant Coin has a denomination of 100 shillings and is struck in .999 fine silver.

Denomination:       100 Shillings
Diameter:     39 mm
Thickness:     3 mm
Bavarian State Mint

呢隻銀幣比網上流傳的圖靚, 而立體感強過之前個幾年發行的 !
在 SCS 買298蚊, 好貼銀價所以好快賣完, 而 SCS 好快會有第二批貨, 所以大家唔好錯過購買機會 ! www.silvercoinstory.com/shop

新出大笨象銀幣不嬲都好貼銀價, 所以當銀價在 34樓下就唔曬300蚊, 不過銀價己升破34, 而歐羅也升回10蚊之上, 所以新貨要貴些啦 ! 舊年份的大笨象銀幣就只會愈來愈貴啦, 一早變咗收藏幣 !

大笨象銀幣返貨是無盒的, 但本人會第一時間放入39mm燈塔牌膠盒(SCS或東洋有賣) 和用玻璃袋(SCS或東洋有賣)封實, 為保唔氧化和膠盒唔變花或入塵 !

2012年版 287.88 2011-12-28收貸, 在第一次團購買, 訂貨時銀價在約30美元
2011年版 280.67 2012-04-08收貨, 在 SCS 團購買, 訂貨時銀價在約27美元 
2013年版 298    2012-11-24收貨, 在 SCS 買,訂貨時銀價在約33美元



2004     5,000
2005     5,000
2006     5,000
2007     5,000
2008     5,000
2009 130,000
2010 120,000
2011 170,000
2012 120,000
2013 140,000
2014  ?
2015  ?
2016  ?
2017 ?
2018 ?  

【市後重點睇】觀望聯儲議息紀錄 油價續上



-21:30 美國11月18日當周首次申請失業救濟人數、10月耐用品訂單
-23:00 美國11月密歇根大學消費者信心指數終值
-23:30 美國能源信息署(EIA)發布政府版原油庫存周報
-02:00 美國油服貝克休斯發布美國11月24日當周總鑽井數
-周四凌晨03:00 美國聯儲局發布上一次議息紀錄






●【板塊分析】「北水」密密吸 航空股有勢飛更高?





●金融機構處置機制 銀行目前仍於諮詢及摸索階段。





The Hidden Risk of Broker/Clearer

太多人唔知真正的金融危機係邊, 要發生咗到時喊都喊唔返 !



Dear Mr. Armstrong, Thank you for your work in “educating” us in your “University of the Conscious Investor”! My question relates to your “Trading a Vertical Market” report. I am slowly digesting this report which is truly fascinating and a must read for any rational minded investor. My experience tells me (and you have reaffirmed this within your report) that being able to trade correctly for the market is critical. In analyzing the correct actions we must take I have reached the conclusion that we must also investigate deeply the trading company we use and how any wild ride will impact their ability to actually fund the successful trades we have managed to get into and out of. I recently was issued new T&C’s for my accounts to accept and that makes for scary reading in the light of any major reset or mammoth gap or moves we anticipate. How would you recommend we evaluate the companies actually holding the bag to be able to pay up at the end of the day? This appears to me to be a most crucial question in the light of what Socrates is pointing out.

Be Well,


Yes, you are absolutely correct. Your broker/clearer is an additional risk.

The kind of market conditions we are about to face will force questions beyond extreme volatility, no bids and the gapping of price and trade. What Traders must realize is that these extreme price actions themselves trigger increased margins, which again could trigger a liquidity crisis. Under such panic moves, prices can gap ‘without’ a trade and is worth remembering people sell what they can not what they should. This forces other markets to move just to raise cash. If market movements are violent everyone is pulled into the mix.

This is when you have to hope that every one of your fellow account owners (under the broker/clearer you are using) is liquid enough to honor margin requirements. This type of information is rarely going to be available to all and so makes many remain vulnerable.

Just to make you aware, it is possible that your money is vulnerable even if you do not have an open position and is just sitting with your clearer if they were to fail.

A lot of people lost money in the MF Global Scandal.

人幣香港同業拆息創近半年高 曾觸10厘





銷售外國樓不須領牌 政府推稱問題複雜難管







樓價UPDATES:業主惜售 轉賣為租個案增







灣仔大洋金幣可以用長城抽籤價預訂中國2018年狗年金銀幣 ! goldcoins.hk/2018-dog-coins-promotion

每人只限一枚和一套, 月尾到貨 !

耶倫:應對未來潛在負面衝擊 加息是關鍵











在灣仔大洋買, 現大洋網上報價: 185蚊一枚, 一排15枚賣2640蚊 !

182蚊一枚, 一排15枚賣177蚊/1枚 !

【港股收市】恒指急漲557點 成交達1570億!










2017年11月21日 星期二









瞞擁逾240萬申公屋 申請人罰1.3萬判囚獲緩刑




Bitcoin Tumbles Then Rebounds After Hackers Steal $31 Million Tethers


The rise in Bitcoin’s price was approaching "warp speed" above $8,200 overnight when, as so often happens, it went into another sharp reversal. After hitting an intra-day high of almost $8,265 in early trading on Tuesday, the price crashed more than $400 to $7,827, its biggest drop since November 13. This time it wasn’t another Dimon-esque rant, or the prospect of another fork (technically, these are bullish) but an old-fashioned theft in another cryptocurrency, Tether. Tether is a controversial crpto-business which provides a wallet service allowing crypto exchanges to store and convert fiat currencies to "safe" tokens (not to be confused with an ICO token) and vice versa.

Tether has a market cap of roughly $673 million and is the world’s nineteenth largest cryptocurrency, based Coinmarketcap.com data. Regarding the theft, Tether alleges that $31MM of USDT tokens (Tethers trading at parity with the dollar) were stolen on 19 November 2017.
From the Tether press release:

Tether Critical Announcement

Yesterday, we discovered that funds were improperly removed from the Tether treasury wallet through malicious action by an external attacker. Tether integrators must take immediate action, as discussed below, to prevent further ecosystem disruption.

$30,950,010 USDT was removed from the Tether Treasury wallet on November 19, 2017 and sent to an unauthorized bitcoin address. As Tether is the issuer of the USDT managed asset, we will not redeem any of the stolen tokens, and we are in the process of attempting token recovery to prevent them from entering the broader ecosystem. The attacker is holding funds in the following address: 16tg2RJuEPtZooy18Wxn2me2RhUdC94N7r. If you receive any USDT tokens from the above address, or from any downstream address that receives these tokens, do not accept them, as they have been flagged and will not be redeemable by Tether for USD.

What is especially troubling, is how easy it was - in retrospect - to "steal" over $30MM worth of cryptos and send them on to a "non-extradition" address. As per Tether’s announcement, the $31MM was simply sent to "an unauthorised Bitcoin address." While likely futile, the company took steps to recover the loast money: as The Crunch reports:

In response Tether said it has flagged the tokens — meaning that it will track them and prevent the holder from exchanging them through its service — and that it is working to recover them. For partners, the back-end wallet service has been suspended. Tether said it will investigate the incident while it rolls out an update to Omni Core — its software for partners — that will prevent the stolen coins from recirculating into its ecosystem by essentially locking them into the alleged hacker’s wallet.

Where things begin to get murky, is the extent to which there may or may not be a relationship between Tether and another controversial player in the cryptocurrency space, Bitfinex. The latter is the major crypto exchange which was famously hacked in 2016, after which the Bitcoin price fell 20%. The Crunch notes that some crypto players are already expressing concern about a potential “inside job”.

One of the partners that uses Tether is crypto exchange Bitfinex, which itself lost 119,756 bitcoin — then worth $72 million but valued at over $950 million today — in a hack over a year ago. As Coindesk reports, the incident is sure to throw up more questions about the relationship between Tether and the secretive exchange Bitfinex. The duo are rumored to share owners, and have been accused of leaning on each other to manipulate the market. Already, there are theories circulating that suggest this new attack could be an inside job.

This latest hit to Bitcoin is likely to prompt more discussion of the relative advantages of gold versus Bitcoin. In a recent post On Zero Hedge, John Rubino cited an article on the Risk Hedge website “All the Reasons Cryptocurrencies Will Never Replace Gold as Your Financial Hedge” in which security was highlighted as one of the key risks for cryptos.

#4: Lack of Security Undermines Cryptocurrencies’ Effectiveness.

Security is a major drawback facing the cryptocurrency community. It seems that every other month, there is some news of a major hack involving a Bitcoin exchange.  In the past few months, the relatively new cryptocurrency Ether has been a target for hackers. The combined total amount stolen has almost reached $82 million.

Bitcoin, of course, has been the largest target. Based on current prices, just one robbery that took place in 2011 resulted in the hackers taking hold of over $3.7 billion worth of bitcoin—a staggering figure. With security issues surrounding cryptocurrencies still not fully rectified, their capability as an effective hedge is compromised. When was the last time you heard of a gold depository being robbed? Not to mention the fact that most depositories have full insurance coverage.

In another recent post, “Doomsday Preppers Are Switching Allegiance From Gold To Bitcoin”, the issue of security was also prominently discussed.

However, for preppers, the main issue was what would happen if the grid failed. As we’ve suggested, it’s hardly surprising given Bitcoin’s performance that investors and preppers alike have switched their allegiance towards the pre-eminent crypto-currency. However, more events like this, will only add to the view that there is a place in portfolios (and bunkers) for both. After Bitcoin topped $8200 yesterday, we noted the following amusing comment from currency brokerage ForexTime.

“I find it remarkable and somewhat frightening how, no matter how much Bitcoin is pummeled by sellers, it simply bounces back even stronger.”

We’re not there yet, but the price is already closing in on the pre-theft record high of $8,300 as we write.

And, as Bloomberg adds, the incident is the latest in a long list of hacks which while denting confidence in the security of cryptocurrencies, "typically have fleeting market impact: bitcoin has surged to one record after another during the past few years despite major thefts from exchanges including Bitfinex and Mt. Gox."

2017年11月20日 星期一

【市後重點睇】歐元向下 留意德拉吉講話



-22:00 歐洲央行行長德拉吉對歐洲議會的經濟委員會作證詞
-23:00 美國10月諮商會領先指標
-周二凌晨00:00 歐洲央行行長德拉吉在歐洲議會經濟委員會聽證會上作介紹性聲明










●又破頂!屯門The Parkville高層四房近1250萬沽。




ECB & the Coming Banking Crisis



Mr. Armstrong; Your post of November 16th where you state that the ECB is looking to freeze accounts in a banking crisis, does that mean they will no longer honour the claimed insurance of €100,000 per account?



No. They will not pretend to eliminate that insurance, they just will “suspend” it as a bank holiday. But you gloss over another problem. The insurance of  €100,000 is NOT per account, but PER PERSON. So taking €1 million euro and spreading among 10 banks does not thereby provide insurance for the whole lot.

The same is true in the USA. The ECB is proposing supplementing it with discretionary powers to suspend bank withdrawals. To say that the entire program will be terminated is an exaggeration. Nevertheless, it reflects the realization that the European banking system is in serious trouble.

I recommend that Europeans should have a stash of cash, and if you have a lot of cash in your account, put some into dollars in the States before it is too late.






明年4新項目 4400居屋應市






2017年11月19日 星期日

日商界代表團訪華 為日企在一帶一路尋定位




港怡夥保險公司 推醫保全繳套餐吸客


港怡醫院於今年3月正式開業,是全港首家引入全包醫療套餐的醫院。該院行政總裁Dirk Schraven表示,港怡同時與保險公司合作,令病人有機會以醫保全數繳付醫療套餐費用,而且保險公司有大量數據,可以幫助醫院度身制定解決方案,港怡未來仍會跟保險公司緊密合作,希望以高透明度及合理的價格,為中產市民提供創新及高質素的醫療服務。











新西蘭向華客開放自助通關 全程僅需10秒




新西蘭海關部長Meka Whaitiri當天出席儀式並剪綵後,在致辭中表示,中國是新西蘭第二大遊客來源國,中國遊客去年在新西蘭消費便達23億紐元(約122.4億港元),未來5年更有望達到50億紐幣;為中國遊客實現自助通關,將有效提升中國遊客出入境體驗,從而吸引更多遊客來新西蘭。


備戰星期一:潘梓生話美股跌 VIX跳升響警





2017年11月18日 星期六

大灣區建設為合作重點 粵歡迎港議員考察






內地客買虛擬貨幣疑受騙 原來公司都係虛擬






Ethereum Cryptocurrency – Almost $400 Million Vanishes


Thanks to a string of screw-ups and bugs, an unsuspecting developer recently took possession of an estimated $US390 million worth of the Ethereum cryptocurrency by accident. In an attempt to give back the money, however, the guy ended up locking up the funds permanently. Essentially, the money has just evaporated.

It turns out that hackers started the trouble getting into the cryptocurrency wallet service stealing about $42 million. To then patch the vulnerability to their block-chain technology, they introduced a bug that affected multi-signature wallets.

These are wallets which require several people to enter keys before funds get transferred. This was intended to be top security for Ether which is the second largest cryptocurrency. Somehow, a guy called “devops199” triggered the bug and took control of all multi-sig wallets unintendedly. Then devops199 attempted to reverse the process to give back the money which then triggered the bug. The result was the destruction all of the funds. The bug caused a chain reaction of events that locked all multi-signature wallets that cannot now be unlocked.

Welcome to the world of Cryptocurrency.

BTW: Blockchain can be hacked, in case you did not know.

美稅改前景不明朗及美元下跌 金價升逾1%













美股收市:道指挫100點 納指全周升0.47%




個股方面,通用電氣(GE)獲主席John Flannery增持6萬股。通用電氣股價全日由升轉跌,收市微跌0.25%。電動車生產商特斯拉(Tesla)「踩過界」,宣布開發電動重型貨車Semi,預計於2019年投產,2020年面世,刺激股價全日升約0.8%。





樓貴都照搶 新盤買家諗緊乜?





●準買家李女士:幫阿仔上車 冀樓價下跌



沙特反貪填國庫? 傳王子商家獻7成身家換自由





2017年11月17日 星期五

Bill Blain: "Stock Markets Don't Matter; The Great Crash Of 2018 Will Start In The Bond Market"


Blain's Morning Porridge, Submitted by Bill Blain of Mint Partners

The Great Crash of 2018? Look to the bond markets to trigger Mayhem!

I had the impression the markets had pretty much battened down for rest of 2017 – keen to protect this year’s gains. Wrong again. It seems there is another up-step. After the People’s Bank of China dropped $47 bln of money into its financial system (where bond yields have risen dramatically amid growing signs of wobble), the game’s afoot once more. The result is global stocks bound upwards. Again. It suggest Central Banks have little to worry about in 2018 – if markets get fraxious, just bung a load of money at them.

Personally, I’m not convinced how the tau of monetary market distortion is a good thing? Markets have become like Pavlov’s dog: ring the easy money bell, and markets salivate to the upside.

Of course, stock markets don’t matter.

The truth is in bond markets. And that’s where I’m looking for the dam to break. The great crash of 2018 is going to start in the deeper, darker depths of the Credit Market.

I’ve already expressed my doubts about the long-term stability of certain sectors – like how covenants have been compromised in high-yield even as spreads have compressed to record tights over Treasuries, about busted European regions trying to pass themselves off as Sovereign States (no I don’t mean the Catalans, I mean Italy!), and how the bond market became increasingly less discerning on risk in its insatiable hunt for yield. Chuck all of these in a mixing bowl and the result is a massive Kerrang as the gears of finance explode!

Well.. maybe..

I’m convinced bond markets are the REAL bubble we should be watching. 

I’m convinced it’s going to start in High Yield.. so let’s start by talking about Collateralised Loan Obligations – the CLO market. Did you know that since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2008 only 20 out of 1392 deals have seen their riskiest tranches default? (I pinched the numbers from a Bloomberg article.) When I quoted these numbers in the office everyone was surprised.. Surely losses were greater?

Of course not.

It wasn’t just banks that benefitted from Too-Big-To-Fail. (TBTF) Most CLOs did very well. In 2008 smart credit funds realised they would benefit on the back of TBTF and did exceeding well out buying cheap CLOs from panicked sellers. As the GFC unfolded in the wake of Lehman’s default, the global financial authorities pulled out the stops to stop contagion. Banks were unwilling to realise further losses, interest rates plummeted, meaning the highly levered companies issuing the debt backing CLOs survived and were better able to repay their existing debt.

The 2008 GFC was about consumer debt – triggered by mortgages. We still have consumer debt crisis problems ahead (in credit cards, autos and student loans). There is also the fact Consumers have suffered most these past 10-yrs as massive income inequality has left them paid less and paying more for everything – which is most definitely going to come back and haunt markets at some point.

But, I do think the next Financial Crisis is likely to be in Corporate debt, and will be an credit market analogue to the consumer debt crisis of 2008. The Hi-yield market is the likely source - as markets recovered banks started lending again, and low rates forced investors out the credit-risk curve to buy returns. The funds who used to buy nothing but AAAs are now buying speculative single B names. Such is the demand for assets, these companies have been able to lever up and refinance, increase leverage and refinance further, at ever faster rates.

It’s been exacerbated by private equity fuelling returns through debt.  As demand has increased exponentially, borrowers have been able to slash Covenants, making it easier and simpler for over-indebted companies to raise more and more dosh.

Where does it end?

As rates rise we’re going to see the “Toys’R’us” moment repeated on a grand scale. The rise of and fall of Zombie companies that simply can’t meet debt payments is bound to contage not just the rest of the credit market, but also stocks. 

More immediately, the realisation a crisis is coming feels very similar to June 2007 when the first mortgage backed funds in the US started to wobble. (The first few pebbles rolling down the hill before the landslide?) It explains why we’re seeing the highly levered sector of the Junk bond markets struggle, and companies correlated to struggling highly levered consumers (such as health and telecoms) also in trouble.

Basically, the very little is really fixed since the 2008 financial crisis. 10-years later, here we are with the next bubble about to burst. Corporate debt watch out.

Which leads us to the UK Housing Sector…

A few days I commented on how UK house prices have risen 50% over the last 5-years – a period which has seen incomes stagnate. The result is its practically impossible for anyone on a normal salary to even contemplate ever affording their own house – a very good article in the FT yesterday saw the author explain he’d have to save 20% of his gross income for 60 years to be able to put down a deposit on the bed-sit he lives in!

In short, the great myth of the Thatcher generation is dead. The dream of home ownership in the UK won’t happen for our children’s generation.. They will be forced to rent, and that’s a very expensive market here in London. At the moment a mortgage is far cheaper than renting – but as rates rise that will correct a little. 
Somehow we have to create decent rental accommodation at a cost comparable or below mortgages. After all, if you own a house you save money on accommodation, and you get all the upside from appreciation of the asset.

Historically, housing has been a better performing asset to own than even stocks - so perhaps there is even a tax angle there, but one no sane politician would date to broach. 

To make it happen we need to encourage public and private landlords with the where-with-all to build new quality rentals - and surprisingly this may be possible under current government polices announced yesterday such as privatising the Housing Associations. As this point regular readers will be in shock – “Blain praising the government? Pass the smelling salts”!

Insurance and pension funds will fund the assets - they know house are literally "safe as houses"!  There is a clear role for Housing Associations to become even more important quality providers of rental/social accommodation.

The big risk is some political fool will decide to enhance their electoral prospects with some ill-conceived "right-to-buy" policy which will simply fuel expectations, drive up consumer borrowing, and fuel a boom market once more putting property out of reach for the masses. 

Meanwhile, I suppose we should be worrying about the fact Merkel still can’t put a government together, the fact it’s now pay to get out of jail in Saudi, and all the other noise. Will anyone be listening to Theresa Maybe in Brussels today?

Putin: New World Order Are in Final Stages Of Their European Master-Plan.

政府指長生津將優化 非迫長者工作不靠福利







BOE Warns Weekly Fund Redemptions Of 1.3% Would Break Corporate Bond Market


The Bank of England has done some timely and truly eye-opening research into the resilience of corporate bond markets. The research is contained in the Bank of England Financial Stability Paper No.42 and is titled “Simulating stress across the financial system:  the resilience of corporate bond markets and the role of investment funds” by Yuliya Baranova, Jamie Coen, Pippa Lowe, Joseph Noss and Laura Silvestri.

The starting point of the analysis is to revisit the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) which saw $300 billion of related to subprime mortgages amplified to well over $2.5 trillion of write-downs across the global financial system as a whole. One of the problems was that the system was structured in a way that did not absorb economic shocks, but amplified them. The amplification came via a feedback loop. As the crisis unfolded, fears about credit worthiness of banks led to the collapse of interbank lending. Weaker banks had their funding withdrawn, which led to a downward spiral of asset sales and the strangling of credit in the broader economy.

The paper notes that, since then progress has been made and the Bank of England’s stress tests now include the feedback loop created by interbank loans.

Indeed, the 2016 test showed that the potential for solvency problems to spread between UK banks through this channel has “fallen dramatically” since the crisis. Furthermore, interbank lending has been cut back and is more often secured against collateral.

The report cautions that other feedback loops might be present, especially since banks only account for about half of the UK financial system. Indeed, a key objective for regulators is to assess how the non-bank part of the system – termed “market-based finance” in the paper, responds to economic shocks. In particular, could the non-bank system, which trades “market-based finance” (principally bonds), amplify shocks in a similar way to the banking system during the last crisis? The report characterises market-based finance and the related risks as follows.

The system of market-based finance includes, among other parts, investment funds, dealers, insurance companies, pension funds and sovereign wealth funds. It supports the extension of credit and transfer of risks through markets rather than banks. It has expanded rapidly since the crisis.  At the global level, assets held by non-bank financial intermediaries increased by more than a third since the financial crisis. The potential spillover effects in market-based finance centre on ‘fire sales’ of assets, which affect prices of financial assets and functioning of markets.  Participants in this part of the system can face incentives, or be forced into, sudden asset sales.

The report sees the potential for another dangerous feedback loop developing from falling asset prices which lead to declines in net worth, prompting a withdrawal of funding which leads to more asset sales and further falls in prices. They are hardly reinventing the wheel here and what they’re really describing is the evidence that investors often behave pro-cyclically. It raises the valid concern that pro-cyclical behaviour is most dangerous in less liquid assets with short-notice redemption – the classic liquidity mismatch. The post-Brexit problem in 2016 in UK commercial property funds was a great example.

These dynamics were illustrated clearly in 2016 in funds investing in UK commercial property.  With the property market in hiatus following the United Kingdom’s referendum on membership of the European Union, these open-ended funds faced redemption requests from investors concerned about the prospect of future price falls and fearing that other redemptions would force the funds to suspend.  The process was self-fulfilling and many funds were forced to suspend redemptions.

The report goes on to highlight the challenges for broker-dealer liquidity and hedge funds if asset managers aggressively sell securities in a crisis. It’s obvious stuff, i.e. that broker-dealer are less able to warehouse securities and less able to provide funding to hedge funds, which might be buyers, and could become forced sellers. The BoE models what would have when one type of shock - redemptions by open-ended funds - trigger selling by the funds with spillover effects for broker-dealers and hedge funds.

The paper that follows seeks to model how the aggregate behaviour of several sectors within the system of market-based finance, including investment funds and dealers, could interact to spread and amplify stress in corporate bond markets.  That focus stems from the growing importance of bond markets to the financing of the economy, alongside the rapid growth in holdings of such bonds in fund structures.  It does not focus on individual companies; the analysis is conducted at a sector level.  It is not concerned with the capacity of the sectors to absorb losses.

Basically, the model estimates the sensitivity of investment grade corporate bonds yields in Europe if funds sell the equivalent of 1% of their total assets on a weekly basis – which was similar run rate to the redemptions in October 2008 (4.2% over the month – see below). Since then, however, broker-dealer capacity has contracted and investment grade issue issuance risen sharply. Importantly, it also addresses the scale of redemptions which might overwhelm the ability of broker-dealers and hedge funds to absorb the selling. The model assumes that there is a shock leading to an initial round of redemptions which prompts investment funds to make asset sales. Broker-dealers require lower prices to compensate them for absorbing the selling which leads to a second round of redemptions and selling. After that, further selling “breaks” the market and leads to dislocated prices on the downside.

The paper explains the market-breaking points as follows.

The level of redemptions at which the second-round price impact line ends is where dealers reach the limit of their capacity to absorb those asset sales by funds not purchased by hedge funds.  We assume that market liquidity is tested at this point and refer to it as the market-breaking point. Transactions could still occur beyond this point — for example, if a dealer can immediately match a buyer and seller or if it sells other assets to purchase corporate bonds — but are assumed to take place at highly dislocated prices.

The BoE paper estimates that a weekly level of redemptions from funds equivalent to 1% of their assets would increase investment grade corporate bond yields by 40 basis points. However…this is the key…it estimates that initial redemptions equivalent to only 1.3% of assets on a weekly basis would be “needed to overwhelm the capacity of dealers to absorb those sales, resulting in market dysfunction”, i.e. the market-breaking point. It describes this as an “unlikely but not impossible event.”

We disagree, we are in a far bigger bubble than 2007-08.











2017年11月16日 星期四

科學園8億建創新斗室招人才 要政府注資7成








-17:30 英國10月核心零售銷售
-18:00 歐元區10月CPI終值
-21:30 美國11月11日當周首次申請失業救濟人數、11月費城聯儲製造業指數
-22:10 美國克利夫蘭聯邦儲備銀行總裁梅斯特(Loretta Mester)講話
-22:15 美國10月工業產出
-23:00 美國11月NAHB房產市場指數
-次日02:10 美國達拉斯聯邦儲備銀行行長卡普蘭(Robert Kaplan)講話
-次日04:00 歐洲央行副行長Vitor Constancio講話
-次日04:45 美聯儲理事布雷納德(Lael Brainard)在會議發表演說
-次日05:45 三藩市聯邦儲備銀行行長威廉斯(John Williams)在亞洲經濟政策會議上講話


























利嘉閣按揭代理董事總經理 黃詠欣

積金局:有63個強積金基金減價 最多減54%





中國9月減持美債197億美元 年初以來首次












中世紀寶藏法國修院出土 有金幣戒指


法國里昂大學的學古學家團隊周二(14日)宣布,成功於本年9月在位於中部勃艮第大區的克呂尼修道院(Cluny Abbey),發掘出一大批有逾800年歷史的中世紀珍貴寶藏,當中包括不少金銀珠寶。



全球大學就業能力榜出爐 科大亞洲屈居第二







1. 美國加州理工學院
2. 哈佛大學
3. 哥倫比亞大學
9. 東京大學
12. 香港科技大學
16. 新加坡國立大學
71. 香港大學
82. 中文大學
134. 城市大學


【歷史重演?】接連誕地王 樓市恐見頂







2017年11月15日 星期三

【市後重點睇】日圓跌穿113關 道期挫近百



-16:00 美國芝加哥聯儲銀行行長埃文斯(Charles Evans)在瑞銀歐洲會議發表演說
-17:30 英國10月失業金申請人數變動、失業率和9月三個月ILO失業率
-21:30 美國10月CPI、10月零售銷售和11月紐約聯儲製造業指數
-23:00 美國9月商業庫存
-23:30 美國能源信息署(EIA)發布政府版原油庫存周報
-周四凌晨05:10 美國波士頓聯儲銀行行長羅森格倫(Eric Rosengren)發長講話
















朱凱廸怪招拉布失時效 一地兩檢議案通過










【午市重點睇】美匯低企 布油跌至61水平






















倘沙特與伊朗開戰 油價恐短期飆上200美元







美國10月PPI按年升2.8% 5年半最勁



中國超級電腦數量破新高 超美國踞榜首





2017年11月14日 星期二

Turks Just Bought The Most Gold Ever As Lira Tumbles


Since President Recep Tayyip Erdogan installed himself as 'Sultan for life', the Turks appear to have had a dramatic change of heart towards the barbarous relic...

The Turks have never imported a greater value of gold than in the last 12 months...

Addditionally, as Bloomberg reports, Bar and coin purchases, a measure of investment demand, were 47 metric tons so far in 2017, compared with 14.8 tons in the same period a year ago, according to a report from the World Gold Council published Thursday.

The weak lira and “President Erdogan’s pro-gold comments in November last year continued to lend support to the market,” the gold council said.

But it's not just the average Turk who is buying gold, Turkey’s central bank is also buying gold, increasing purchases by 30.4 tons during the third quarter.

While the central bank has cited a good old-fashioned diversification policy, some analysts speculated that the country could be shoring up reserves amid rising tensions between Turkey and its traditional Western allies.

A year ago, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan urged Turks to prefer gold to the U.S. dollar as a savings vehicle, and asked the central bank to support that policy.

And gold is doing exactly what it should do as faith in fiat falters.

The question is - just like in India - how long before Erdogan 'dictates' an end to gold imports, imposes tariffs, or confiscates the precious metal?

China Open Gold Trade in Yuan as Proxy for the Yuan


China keeps moving gradually to open up their economy to international forces. The People’s Republic of China has expanded the trade in gold in yuan and thus the internationalization of the national currency is moving closer. Gold merchants from the industrial metropolis of Shenzhen have been trading their yuan gold at the Hong Kong Stock Exchange since last week. Previously, this was only possible for Hong Kong gold traders. While some immediately claim this is China attacking the dollar, they are completely ignorant of international capital necessities.

This new connection between Shenzhen and Hong Kong follows the Hong Kong-Shanghai agreement reached in July 2015, which allowed Hong Kong dealers to trade gold in mainland China for the first time. Trading gold in yuan has one primary advantage. It is not going to unseat the dollar, it is all about trying to make the currency free-floating on the world market. Because gold can be traded in yuan, the common converter becomes gold between that and the dollar. It is NOT really a gold trade as much as it is an indirect means to trade the currency.

To unseat the dollar requires a place to PARK big money in yuan. That does not exist right now. That day is coming after 2031. This is another step in moving toward a free-floating yuan contract. Essentially, this is a formal proxy for a free-floating yuan and will replace the Bitcoin trading that has been used as the proxy to get money out of China.

MAJOR ALERT: Remarkable Commercial Trading Moves In Silver & Crude Oil!


With the price of silver moving back to $17 and crude oil hanging near $57, look at these remarkable commercial trading moves in silver and crude oil!

Here is an update on how commercials are positioning themselves in crude oil and silver…

The chart below shows commercials very close to all-time record short positions in the crude oil market.

Near All-Time Record Short Positions In Crude Oil

NEAR RECORD: 23-Year Chart Of Commercial Oil Shorts

Commercials Increase Short Positions In Silver

Below is a 23-year big picture look at the commercial short positions in the silver market (see chart below).

23-Years Of Commercial Short Positions In Silver

Also of importance…

There is one other chart of commercial short positioning that is extremely important…

If we take a look at what is happening in the “Total Energy” market it is quite fascinating.  For the past couple of weeks commercial short positions have increased in the Total Energy market and have now hit an all-time record (see 23-year chart below).

Commercial Total Energy Short Positions Hit All-Time Record!

If you  look closely at the chart above, commercials have piled in aggressively short “Total Energy.”  This suggests that there may be a great deal of downside in the energy market.  As for crude oil, a major danger signal is being flashed.  In the silver market there is a warning flag being waved as well.  Commercial short positions did not change noticeably in the gold market, where they remain short, but well off record levels.  KWN will keep a close eye on commercial positions and update when major changes occur.  In the meantime, it will be very interesting to see how these key markets trade in the coming weeks, particularly crude oil, which may see significant downside action.

【市後重點睇】四大央行舵手講話 道期跌32點



-17:00 IEA公布月度原油市場報告
-17:30 英國10月CPI
-18:00 歐洲央行舉辦央行溝通會議,美國聯儲局主席耶倫、歐洲央行行長德拉吉、英倫銀行行長卡尼及日本央行行長黑田東彥發表講話
-18:00 歐元區三季度GDP修正值
-21:30 美國10月PPI
-周三凌晨 2:02 美國亞特蘭大聯儲主席博斯蒂克就經濟前景和貨幣政策發表演講
-周三凌晨 5:30 上周API原油庫存變化(萬桶)





●搶攻影音串流 亞馬遜重金拿下《魔戒》電視劇版權!










比特幣下月推期貨 分析預警「鬱金香爆泡」慘劇


虛擬貨幣「龍頭」比特幣恐臨泡沫爆破風險!芝加哥商品交易所(CME)董事長Terry Duffy周一表示,在12月第2周,即不足1個月時間,投資者就會看到比特幣期貨上市。換句話說,比特幣即將接受「賭跌」的沽空。

瑞銀分析員Paul Donovan預警,比特幣瘋潮已愈來愈似17世紀時的「鬱金香泡沫」,恐怕爆破在即。Donovan表示,就在1636年,市場推出了鬱金香期貨,等如現今比特幣期貨市場一樣,買賣雙方定下某日子成交的價格。結果「鬱金香泡沫」在翌年即1637年6月就爆破。




美國收緊高血壓定義至130/80 近半數成年人超標




新指引的首席撰寫人韋爾頓(Paul Whelton)表示,如果血壓達130/80,患上心血管疾病的風險已比血壓正常的人高一倍。他指,被診斷出高血壓不等於必須服藥,但卻是提醒人們要開始降血壓的警號,主要以非藥物方法,如多做運動、健康飲食、戒酒戒煙戒鹽、減壓等。 






內地規模工業增加值增速放緩 民間固投佔比升











2017年11月13日 星期一









① 政府主导,全程参与

② 国企实施,总包管理

③ 规划先行,统筹实施

④ 统一标准,方式多元

⑤ 以人为本,公益为先


① 集中成片、用地面积不少于10000平方米;用地面积少于10000平方米,但全体权利人同意异地安置的;

② 房屋使用年限在20年以上;

③ 全体权利人同意实施改造的书面证明材料。









新政施行 钉子户还能拖吗?