2015年2月28日 星期六

1周10大驚奇:金管KO超人? 法興驚言股災

money18.on.cc

本周財經大事排山倒海,除了最貼身的財政預算案派糖340億元外,另一最多人熱議的話題當然是長和系主席李嘉誠對「細價樓爆煲論」的意見,一句就KO紀惠 集團行政總裁湯文亮,成為「細樓爆煲連續劇」重量級角色,滿以為落幕之際,金管局總裁陳德霖出場,祭出3招遏樓火,誰能笑到最後仍是未知數。「1周10大 驚奇」將以李嘉誠的言論貫穿10大驚聞,當中不乏相關性:

1、超人論樓市:拋窒湯文亮 拋唔到政府
李嘉誠:「我不認為細價樓會跌得太多,年輕人有需要而又負擔到,應該置業。」

「細樓爆煲連續劇」在農曆新年後再掀高潮,在周四李嘉誠發表言論前,湯文亮意氣風發,話如果無爆煲論,農曆新年樓價必定再升,那麼預算案或會推出租務管制,由於爆煲論已有阻嚇作用,所以唔會有新辣招,成功拋窒財爺。

在周四李嘉誠言論後,唔好話3個月,市場畀夠6個月,睇死湯文亮一定輸。睇睇佢點回應?「誠哥有沒有講,就算向財務公司借錢都要買,誠哥經常說量力而為, 借財務公司錢買樓就一定不是量力而為......如果每一位細價樓小業主都是向銀行借錢買樓,最多只是申請按揭保險,又符合所有壓力測試,細價樓又怎會爆煲?」

正當大眾站在誠哥那邊時,財爺及金管局出場,推出第7輪「辣招」阻細價樓升溫,令這套「細樓爆煲連續劇」更耐人尋味之餘,更證明冇人可以拋窒政府。

2、超人講通脹:高盛話油價廿蚊全球死梗
李嘉誠:「每年都會有通脹,工資不會比今日低。」

如果有留意開財經新聞,都知道現時連大行都驚中港會通縮,誠哥一於少理,表明通脹年年有。講開通縮威脅,各國央行現時都要睇住油價!市場仍是鬥「熊」,愈來愈多人估「油價每桶20蚊美金」,並表示會有助經濟增長!真睇咁好?唔驚引致通縮呀?

高盛發表報告驚言,如果2015年餘下時間油價仍處低位,這將是全球金融體系的惡夢。若油價低於20美元,全球金融體系「肯定」會崩潰。高盛指出,現時有個怪現象,就是愈多鑽油機停工,原油產量反而愈多。稍微懂點經濟學的人都能看出來,大規模的金融危機就要到來,因這種情況會加劇通縮,把這一狀況與歐亞目前存在的問題聯繫起來後,就能看到一個完美風暴。

高盛慨嘆,讓人難過的是,許多人都是在金融危機到來的一天才願意相信!

3、超人評自由行:濠賭零售羊年變羔羊
李嘉誠:「假如今天說不再需要自由行的話,我相信股票將會下跌1,000點以上。」

農曆新年過後,港澳政府開腔話要檢討自由行,加上農曆新年期間訪港及訪澳旅客一係就跌,一係就放緩,首當其衝當然是濠賭股及零售股。結果本周相關股份跌到七彩,成為羊年開局表現最差的板塊。如果它們是恒指成分股主力,港股又真係有機會跌1,000點以上。

4、超人講經濟:法興話係騙局
李嘉誠:「香港現時經濟相當好,沒有特別事情發生;即使未來1、2年也是這樣說,不會太差。外圍就慢一些。」

財政司司長周三發表預算案,表明本港經濟今年充滿挑戰,充滿憂慮。不過,李嘉誠則大派定心丸,仲要話未來1、2年都會好。

不過,知名大「空軍」,法興銀行首席策略師Albert Edwards則發表驚嚇預測,相信美國經濟復甦是騙局,今年下半年所有資產市場均會出現大逆轉。

他表示,美國企業盈利會大幅走下坡,這不是只因能源或美元因素,以他的研究,2月份美國經濟數據是令人失望,現時市場太專注在表面風光的就業數據,最終會證明是有偏差。

無獨有偶,聯儲局前主席格林斯潘亦驚言,當前全球經濟的有效需求不高於2008至2009年蕭條期間很多。

5、超人講科技:股神話要荒「糖」
李嘉誠:「要睇多一些高科技,我自己都不停睇,鼓勵年輕人在這方面諗,自強不息。」

李嘉誠看好高科技前景,外電本周就對科技與回報做了比較,一齊睇睇跟誠哥定跟數據!

如果你在1968年投資1美元,那麼截至上周五,你的投資價值已高達6,638美元,當中包括股息,在過去47年裏,每年平均回報率達20.6%。這公司 究竟是何方神聖?不是蘋果公司,這家公司名叫Altria,是一家煙草公司。儘管創新、進步,科技日新月異,但沒有任何一個行業的投資回報率高於煙草。

早在1988年,「股神」巴菲特當時說:「我來告訴你為甚麼喜歡香煙行業,香煙的成本只要1美分,但售價可以達到1美元。香煙讓人上癮,而且擁有不可思議的品牌忠誠度。」不過,因這樣的投資充斥社會態度相關問題而被迫放棄。

那怎辦?巴菲特投資「糖」!在最近1份投資報告中,巴菲特的「甜蜜」投資清單包含對含糖飲料製造商可口可樂;口香糖和糖果公司箭牌;番茄醬霸主亨氏(Heinz);以及美國食品商Dairy Queen。

從這層意義來講,「糖」是魚和熊掌兼得的方式,「糖」和香煙有相似之處:它們製作成本很低,而且讓一些人難以抗拒。這是「股神」的另類投資驚喜。

6、超人講交棒:難道學卡恩做到最後
李嘉誠:「這秒鐘都可以退休,但我現在精神幾好,可以做多一陣,希望公司業務更好。」

李嘉誠表達自己會一直工作,退休後亦會打理基金會。剛好在他講話後不久,以在1929年股災中沽空股票大賺一筆而聞名的逆向投資者卡恩(Irving Kahn)周四逝世,享年109歲,他給「長期投資者」賦予了一種新的含義,在華爾街留下印記。

直到去世前,卡恩還擔任Kahn Brothers Group董事長,這家公司成立於1978年,目前管理約10億美元資產。此前有報道稱,卡恩在去世前仍每周3次坐的士回辦公室辦公。據Kahn Brothers資料,該公司持有黑莓、花旗、紐約時報、輝瑞和默克股票。

卡恩有幾叻?除在1929年股災中沽空股票外,卡恩主要從事價值型投資業務,曾是哥倫比亞大學教學助理,有份教出「股神」巴菲特。

約6年以前卡恩被選中參加「長壽基因項目」,該項目的內容是追蹤活到近100歲或100歲以上,卻還能保持相對健康狀況的人的基因。被問及長壽秘訣,他不是如誠哥所說做運動,而是瀟灑地說:「沒有秘訣,這是老天爺給的。」

卡恩活得精彩,最驚奇是最後的「長壽基因」,或許亞洲首富也有。

7、超人談營運:滙控渣打受之有愧
李嘉誠:「有邊間公司派300億股息?股東如果講多謝,我受之無愧,對得住股東。有散戶話10年間多好多錢」。

講開對得住股東,羊年開局都要提一提滙控(00005)及渣打(02888),前者主席及行政總裁落台呼聲高;後者直情在周四已宣布震走。散戶有冇講多謝呢?

先說滙控
基金經理:「唔係我杯茶,唔會買。」
散戶︰「買期權蝕幾萬蚊。」「管理咁亂,成日被人罰錢,唔再留戀佢。」
大行:「預期今年少賺8%,目標價由75元削至60元。」

咁渣打呢?
一話換管理層,倫敦股價當日即刻飆升3.76%。之前有幾差,不用說了。

8、超人講大陸:A股人日不快樂 中央補鑊
李嘉誠:「中央會有效調控,工資升幅亦遠遠高於通脹,一個國家(中國)的GDP一直以高百分比上升,住屋需求亦大。」

A股周三年初七啟市,以為是「人日」人人快樂,可惜紅盤低收,令人失望,失望的股民於是嘆謂:
「節前的七連陽,節後很難啊!」
「很正常,節前高走,年後肯定要調整,搞不好會繼續下行」
「股市的操盤手總是令散戶在期盼中意想不到,措手不及。這是否人為的賭局?」
「紅包沒了?」
「都說漲的時候,跌的時候就開始了。」
「那些股評家不是都紛紛說,今天要開門紅的嗎?怎麼?現在有沒有找到綠草地的理由,春天到了,枯木逢春了。」

又不用咁悲,正如超人所言,中央會有效調控,結果有傳中央準備好招數救樓市,在周四更向特定銀行「降準」,在內房及金融股帶動下,A股輕易收復羊年首日的失地,皆大歡喜盡在掌握之中。

9、超人談加息:耶倫耍太極
李嘉誠:「美國會加息,但不會多亦不會快。」

要論本周初最矚目的市場焦點,非聯儲局主席耶倫莫屬,她是「鴿」還是「鷹」?驚奇在於她的語言藝術造詣之高,充滿體現中國人耍「太極」神功,令全球現時仍摸不到頭腦,對今年年中是否加息仍未有一定共識,成功令當前歐美金融市場、甚至港股也缺乏方向,浮浮沉沉,想升又想跌。

耶倫話,雖然美國就業市場改善,但通脹和工資增長仍然過低;即使當局準備修改利率前瞻前引,也不應被解讀為表明聯儲局一定會在隨後的幾次會議上加息。講得咁玄,難怪中央也學懂說:「市場不要過分解讀。」

10、超人論政改:南韓有條例唔要即贏
李嘉誠:「若政改通唔過,我都係輸家,好耐都唔會再有政改的機會,諗唔明點解唔要。」

李嘉誠再三呼籲要通過政改,否則齊齊輸,冇人贏。南韓本周則有條憲法被廢除,起碼有贏家先!

南韓憲法法院周四裁定以法律處罰通姦行為違反憲法,侵犯公民基本權利,正式廢除這實施長達62年的通姦罪!

得益於法院判決,南韓5,000多名在2008年10月31日後因通姦罪被起訴或判刑的國民將不再受法律制裁,否則按規定,已婚通姦者和通姦對象均可被判 處2年以下監禁。據數據顯示,2009年南韓女性犯罪人數超過40萬人,創5年新高,其中通姦罪最多,比例高達47.2%。夠驚奇未?

姑勿論怎樣,南韓一家知名避孕套生產商的股價當日立即上漲近15%;另一家營銷緊急避孕藥的公司股價亦上漲9.7%,足見廢除通姦罪對成人用品消費市場的振奮作用十分明顯。

舊電腦換假超市現金券 貪平男「中招」

on.cc東網專訊

【on.cc東網專訊】 一名34歲男子,昨晚相約一名網友在深水埗褔華街與欽州街交界一食肆會面,並且用以物易物的方式,以一部約值8,500元的手提電腦,與對方交換130張 面值100元的超市現金券,以為可從中獲利4,500元,當他於晚上10時許,以該批現金券到大埔道168至178號一間超市以現金券購物時,被職員發現 懷疑是偽造,男子始知受騙即時報警,警方暫列以欺騙手段取得財產案件處理。

Real Estate – To Buy or Not To Buy – That is the Question

幫 Martin Amstrong 的說話解碼先:

2015年10月後美國樓價會下跌, 是對美元來計, 但對歐羅和人民幣來計樓價還是上升的, 就是說美元會一路強落去 ?

但到時借到按揭的機會都一樣減少,  所以有現金的人要買都可以等一等,  依家要買的人須做美元對沖 !

armstrongeconomics.com

Two questions about real estate have been asked by many people:

1. Do you think it is wise now to buy a house and get hooked on a mortgage knowing that 2015.75 is around the corner?

2. Do you think residential real estate valuations and interest rates will collapse on the other side of 2015.75 and should I wait until around 2016.8 to buy? 

Mortgage rates are going into a major low. When the economy turns, the availability of mortgages will decline as always with the cycle. If you have cash and want to buy real estate cheap, yes it is wise to wait. If you want to play the game, then you can buy now and hedge this with shorts/puts on bonds. It depends on your expertise.

Depending on the area, those that have seen the sharpest advances will drop the most. There should be some stabilization as foreign capital will still flow into the USA and real estate plotted in dollars may decline while it is still rising in Euros or Yuan.

2015年2月27日 星期五

再出辣招:金管局3招收緊700萬以下樓按

on.cc東網專訊

【on.cc東網專訊】 金管局總裁陳德霖表示,樓市持續升溫,宣布進一步收緊樓宇按揭,推出第7輪逆周期措施,有3點:

1、700萬元以下自用物業最高按揭成數降至劃一的6成

2、第2套物業的按揭供款與收入比率,上限由5成降至4成

3、非自用住宅及工商物業按揭供款與收入比率,上限由5成降至4成

三項措施今日即時生效。

法興:美國復甦是騙局 下半年大冧市

on.cc東網專訊

【on.cc東網專訊】 知名大「空軍」,法興銀行首席策略師Albert Edwards則發表驚嚇預測,相信美國經濟復甦仍是騙局,今年下半年所有資產市場均會出現大逆轉。
他表示,美國企業盈利會大幅走下坡,這不是只因能源或美元因素,以他的研究,2月份美國經濟數據是令人失望,現時市場太專注在表面風光的就業數據,最終會證明是有偏差。

格老唱淡全球經濟 料美今公布GDP數據弱

on.cc東網專訊

【on.cc東網專訊】 聯儲局前主席格林斯潘表示,雖然投資者預期聯儲局將加息,不過美國10年期和30年期國債孳息率下滑,是整個全球經濟狀況仍很疲軟的鐵證。據他測算,當前全球經濟的有效需求可能並不比2008至2009年蕭條期間高很多。

雖然格林斯潘承認,目前經濟危機不會捲土重來,但當前全球總體經濟狀況仍是上一輪經濟危機結束後最糟糕,即使在發達經濟體中表現最好的美國,整體經濟數據亦不強勁。對於美國商務部將公布第4季實際國民生產總值(GDP)修正值,格林斯潘稱,人人預計GDP增長2%左右,較前值向下修訂,但他預期此次數據可能更低。

傳政府出招壓樓市 財爺話一出就會快夾狠

on.cc東網專訊

【on.cc東網專訊】 預算案無招出,不到2日,市傳政府將於今午稍後時間出招,有指政府將由收緊按揭著手,以控制需求。

財政司司長曾俊華今早於電台節目後表示,現在政府很密切留意樓市情況,如有需要,不會猶豫,亦會一如以往幾次,出招都會「快」和「狠」。問及是否將調整控制樓市措施的幅度時,他只回應「屆時你們會知道。」。曾俊華又表示,接下來的3、4年,預計會有7.4萬個單位進入市場,應該可以幫助解決失衡的情況;他指,推出措施是希望可以令樓市平穩發展。同時,更加重要的,就是可以保持金融體系的安全。對 於預算案向受佔領影響的業界提供支援,曾俊華指不是一個補償,並稱佔領行動對營商環境和很多不同行業有影響,認為過去幾個月,很多國際不同地方的刊物等都覺得對香港的看法有些改變,這個香港是要改變的。政府現在會有一些資源給不同部門,包括旅遊發展局、政府新聞處等,就香港到海外去推廣,或邀請外國人到香港看看情況。

on.cc東網專訊

【on.cc東網專訊】 港股在中午收市前一度跟隨A股發威,衝上25,000關口,但在中午休市期間,有消息指出,政府或於短期內推出打壓樓市措施,加上聯儲局前主席格林斯潘唱淡今晚公布的美國去年第4季GDP修訂值,令港股午後升幅收窄。

政府或再出招,地產股分類指數午後「腳軟」,由最高時報32,793點,升1.08%,收窄到現時報32,588點,僅升0.44%,剛好升少截。長實(00001)業績佳,現報155.6元,仍升1.7%,為恒指貢獻172點;即將於收市後公布業績的新地(00016)現報124.6元,升0.81%;領匯(00823)現報49.75元,升0.3%;盈利按年升3成的新世界(00017)現報9.34元,升0.54%;近期獲主席黃志祥增持的信置(00083)現報12.92元,升0.62%;恒地(00012)現報54元,升0.28%;收租股九倉(00004)則下跌1.46%,現報57.4元。

其他藍籌當中以賭股表現較為突出,連跌多日後終見像樣反彈,銀娛(00027)現報39.75元,升3.11%;金沙中國(01928)現報35.7元,升3.18%;和黃(00013)亦做好,現報107.2元,升1.61%;油價又暴跌,航空股國泰(00293)現報17.5元,升1.04%;「3桶油」則齊齊偏軟,跌幅不足1%;內地發4G牌前夕,中移(00941)出現獲利回吐,現跌1.21%,報105.7元,拖低恒指23點。

創銀1年期人幣定存年息4.18厘

money18.on.cc

人民幣定存戰持續升溫,創興銀行(01111)今推新優惠,敘做12個月及6個月人民幣定存,分別可有年息4.18厘及4厘,起存金額為10萬元人民幣(下同)新資金。

短期定存方面,若敘做3個月定存,存款金額50萬元以上可有3.9厘;存款金額5萬元至50萬元亦有3.8厘。

舊樓業主無裝消防設備遭控 呻被榨棺材本

on.cc東網專訊

【on.cc東網專訊】 西灣河一幢樓齡逾40年舊樓的13名業主,被消防處票控沒有依指示設置消防系統罪,案件今(26日)於東區法院提堂。他們應訊後,連同區內其他舊樓業主同在庭外抗議,訴苦指現行法例硬性規定要在舊樓加裝消防設備,惟舊樓結構難以負荷,工程「無肉食」難以覓得承包商外,工程費亦令年老業主難以負擔。

他們控訴消防處及屋宇署等部門各自為政,試過裝好消防水箱後,卻又被屋宇署指屬僭建而須拆掉,完全無視小業主難處:「根本就係榨取我哋嘅棺材本,不同部門幾年來不 斷滋擾我哋,真係畀佢哋搞到有精神病!」有業主甚至憤言要「消防處長引咎辭職」。

13名涉案被告均是堅信樓的業主,他們聯合聘請同一名律師作代表,控方申請將13張傳票合併處理,辯方則申請暫緩答辯。法庭現將案押後至6月25日再提堂,好讓各被告有足夠時間諮詢詳細的法律意見,以及準備相關的專家報告。據了解,眾被告打算成立業主立案法團,亦準備聘請專家研究該大廈的情況,是否合符法例中的合理辯解,即加裝消防設施會危害大廈結構以及技術上的不可行。

堅信樓高6層樓另加天台,只有一條約1米闊的樓梯讓住客出入。消防處早前要求業主們在大廈天台加設水缸,但父親是業主的嚴小姐今受訪時指,天台大部分地方屬 私人擁有,公共地方只有樓梯部分的不多地方。同時,天台的地板單薄,難以承受重達2千公升的水缸,亦會加重滲水問題,而工程需從地下起加裝鋼筋並貫穿各樓層,費用高昂。嚴小姐又指,消防處並要求在大廈部分樓層加裝高達2、3米的消防喉轆,並非觸手可及之處。她曾致電處方詢問如何解決問題,對方竟回應若遇上火警,便自行找摺梯甚至椅子拉喉;她批評處方的回覆荒謬。嚴小姐解釋,附近的大廈作出類似的改建後,竟遭屋宇署控告僭建,她批評政府各部門之間欠缺溝通,互相推卸責任,是 「搵居民嚟搞」;故此有居民高呼要「消防處長引咎辭職」。

The Herbalife Ice Cube Has Almost Melted: Presenting "Cash From Operations"

www.zerohedge.com

Back in July, when we took one quick look at the Herbalife Q2 results, we asked:
So, is Ackman going to have the last laugh? Or will Ichan end up LBOing the company - even if at a huge ultimate loss - just to spite the fellow hedge fund manager with whom he has supposedly kissed and made up? We will find out soon, because if Herbalife is to be LBOed, Icahn knows that the window in which bond investors are willing to take a gamble on this melting ice cube is closing fast.
We repeated the same rhetorical question last quarter, when nothing had changed, and in fact things got even worse.

Moments ago, Herbalife just reported Q4 and full year results, which from 30,000 feet (preferably literally) were ok, with the company smashing non-GAAP EPS expectations:
  • HERBALIFE REPORTS 4Q ADJ. EPS $1.41 , EST. $1.22
That, however, was the only good news. Because the future is no longer so bright for the multi-level marketer, which however suddenly has huge problem not because it is an alleged Ponzi, but because it is being crushed by, drumroll, the strong dollar.
  • HERBALIFE SEES 2015 EPS $4.10-$4.50, SAW $6.10-$6.40
  • HERBALIFE SEES 1Q NET SALES DOWN 12.5% TO DOWN 15.5%
  • HERBALIFE SEES 2015 ADJ. EPS $4.10 TO $4.50, EST. $5.08
  • HERBALIFE SEES 2015 SALES DOWN 6%-9%
In other words, on both a GAAP and non-GAAP basis, the magic is over.
As for shareholders, especially those who are long and are loooking to take advantage of any short squeeze to get out of the stock, this may be the best time to quietly get out of dodge, because as we warned the ice cube has now almost melted. Why?

Because ponzi schemes, alleged or otherwise, can only exist as long as they generate more cash than they burn. Sadly for Herbalife, the tipping point beyond which every pyramid sheme implodes, has almost arrived. Just ask Bernie Madoff.

Presenting cash from operations.

Form which everything else follows: since the company no longer generates exccess cash to spend on buybacks, it had no choice but to halt said stock boosting buybacks.

And the worst news of all: unlike before, when it had a pristine balance sheet which it could lever up with billions in debt and use the proceeds to pay off activist investors like Icahn, Herbalife will now be fortunate if its creditors and lenders allow it to borrow even one more dollar because they, better than anyone, know that the game is almost over.

2015年2月26日 星期四

永隆下周加人幣定存息 1年見4.25厘

money18.on.cc

永隆存款部主管龔志明預告,下星期一該行將再度「加息」,加息後1年期定存最高見4.25厘,重奪同期全城之冠。

他透露,下星期一起,永隆3、6、12個月人民幣定存皆會加息,1年期定存最高息率將達4.25厘,同期年息屬全城最高;惟起存金額需500萬元以上人民幣(下同),及限定新私人銀行客戶。

永隆同時亦有照顧小額存戶,若敘做1年期存款,起存金額只需10萬元,年息亦高達4.1厘。雖然信銀國際現時亦有推1年期4.1厘定存優惠,但門檻卻遠比永隆高,入場費要500萬元。

收銀車共收集6300萬枚硬幣 總面值5900萬

money18.on.cc

金管局今日公布,硬幣收集計劃下2輛「收銀車」新的服務日程表,羅列了直至7月12日的服務地點。日程表及其他有關資訊載於金管局網頁(coincollection.hkma.gov.hk)。

硬幣收集計劃自2014年10月推出以來,2輛「收銀車」已2次巡迴18區,服務共6.9萬名市民,期間收集共6,300萬枚硬幣,總面值5,900萬元。收集到的硬幣會回流市面滿足市民需要。

政府銳意增供應 樓價料橫行回穩

money18.on.cc

香港置業:新界區料「跑出」 港島九龍重建地區看俏

發展局局長陳茂波今日公布2015至16年財政年度土地供應。香港置業高級執行董事 伍創業指出,綜合而言,下年度將有29幅土地可供出售,其中16幅屬新增土地,可建私樓達1.6萬伙,連同其他土地來源,期內出售住宅供應可望達1.9萬 伙,與長策會每年1.88萬伙私樓建屋目標相若。伍創業表示,政府銳意增加土地供應,繼續貫徹其銳意解決本港住宅「供不應求」之決心,令樓價更趨於健康發展,相信未來進一步增加土地供應是勢在必行,料樓價短期將橫行回穩,暫難再現急升的情況。

伍創業表示,綜觀新一個財政年度政府計劃推出 29幅土地,料共可提供約1.6萬伙住宅單位,其中新界區佔22幅,九龍區5幅,港島區2幅,其中16幅為新增地皮。伍創業指出,政府推出的土地之中,已 連續多年以新界區供應最多,九龍區及港島區土地供應則相對緊絀,相信港島區新盤供應持續緊絀之情況將進一步惡化。

至於各地區樓價走勢方 面,伍創業引述差餉物業估價署資料指出,近年新界區單位落成量與日俱增,其中2014年該區落成量更逾1.04萬伙的10年新高,再加上每年土地供應量在 三區居首,新界區成為未來新樓供應「重鎮」的情況是顯然易見。伍創業相信,只要政府肯配合進一步大力發展交通及地區配套,在樓市剛性需求強勁及交投量配合 下,新界區樓價將相對看俏。

另一方面,由於港島及九龍區未來新增供應不多,料樓價表現相對硬淨,尤其看好各重點重建區域,如港島西區、深水埗、啟德重建區等,料未來區內

李嘉誠稱冇個人遊 港股將跌千點

on.cc東網專訊

【on.cc東網專訊】 長江實業集團主席李嘉誠今午在業績發布會,指香港未來一、兩年經濟不會太差,又稱內地是香港的「靠山」,相信如本港沒有個人遊,股市將跌千點以上,而收緊個人遊對香港是有影響,但集團有對外業務,整體影響不大。

李認為,置業需量力而為,而住屋在香港已是多年的問題,只有供應更多,樓價自然不會太高,又指不應借錢買樓再收租。對於昨日布的新一份預算案,李稱無法令每個人滿意,形容預算案「得體」,又稱市民希望政府做很多事,但反問政府可得幾多。另外,李被問及退休一事,他指要留時間同精神做基金會,何時退休則暫未確定,只稱現時冀公司重組及發展到「某台階」,又稱「要對得住股東」。

on.cc東網專訊

【on.cc東網專訊】 長和系舉行業績發布會,主席李嘉誠表示,對於細價樓的供求,如果結婚人士來說,2房1廳是大路;400多呎的細價樓,長遠都有市場,認為市場不太差。

軟件系統能自學 玩遊戲勝過人類專業玩家

on.cc東網專訊

【on.cc東網專訊】 研究人員周三展示一個軟件系統,它可以教自己玩49種不同的電視遊戲,並進而擊敗人類專業玩家,向快速發展的人工智能領域邁進一大步。

Google擁有的研究公司DeepMind的團隊,在《自然》科學雜誌發表報告,指該系統不單只足以匹敵肉血之軀的玩家有餘,更識用連程式員亦不知道存在的詭計。合作開發者哈薩比斯說,這是第一次有人建立了單一個全面學習系統,它可以直接從經驗中學習,以掌握廣泛的挑戰性任務。這次創舉令人更接近由智能及通用的機器人管理的未來,這些機械人能教自己做工作,並把反覆試驗的記憶儲存,以調整行動令下次取得更好的結果。該團隊表示,這些機器可能有能力做所有事情,由駕車、策劃假期和進行科學研究不等。

新iBond 回報較前遜色

money18.on.cc

曾俊華新一份財政預算案推出多項「派糖」措施,更計劃發行第五批通脹掛鈎債券(iBond),規模約100億元。政府發行iBond一直被視為利民紓困措施,並認為可促進本港零售債券市場發展,但隨著通脹預期回落,加息周期來臨,新一批債券回報較低,吸引力將大為遜色,政府每年在庫房撥出數億元派息,幫補 需要定息收入的市民,象徵意義大於紓困作用,而由於iBond二手交投疏落,根本難以發揮刺激本港債市的功能及作用。

政府在2011年開 始先後發行四批通脹掛鈎債券,都屬於三年期,每半年派息一次,回顧過去四批iBond,除第一批iBond認購反應未見熱烈,其後三次發行,市民認購反應踴躍,大部分市民認購最後都只能獲分一、兩手,每年收取的債券利息雖然尚算穩定,但真正紓困作用不大,只顯示政府的小恩小惠而已。

iBond 是保本產品,提供跟通脹掛鈎回報的穩定收入,在過去幾年,由於本港仍處於低息環境,通脹位於較高水平,仍能保持較高的回報,但港元隨美元持續強勢,可以預 期本港進口物價回落,加上人民幣匯價由強轉弱升,亦將進一步壓抑未港物價升勢,通脹掛鈎產品的吸引力勢必低於過去幾年,今年iBond估計的回報率是最低 的一年。因此估計今年的的需求只屬一般,對抗通脹的功效亦成疑。

政府牽頭發債除了為市民紓困外,亦冀望藉此推動本港債市發展,尤其是債券 零售市場,政策的原意是一舉兩得,,但事實上iBond推動債市欠缺成效,港元與美元在聯繫匯率的重重限制下,機構投資者會然選擇市場深度遠勝香港的美元 債券市場,況且不少iBond認購者一心持有直至到期,令iBond在二手市場交易極其疏落,所謂促進本港債市發展已成為政府的政策口號。

2015年2月25日 星期三

伊斯蘭國:傳101成恐襲目標 台有萬全準備

on.cc東網專訊

【on.cc東網專訊】 針對台灣媒體報道指伊斯蘭國擬攻擊台北101大樓,台灣的國安部高層指出,任何最新的情報均未接獲此類訊息,而國防部則表示,台軍對於反恐作為,都有萬全準備。

國安高層指出,台北101為台灣重要地標,早已列為台灣國安與國防單位列為反恐首要防護區,今年1月時,台北市長柯文哲視察台北市政府消防局,要求消防局4月演練巡弋飛彈炸台北101大樓、翡翠水庫等防災。根據經驗,恐怖分子攻擊行動以宣示性、傷害性為主要目的,因此,具有地標意義的建築物及人潮匯集處,都可能成為恐怖襲擊的目標。高層指出,目前無任何情資顯示台灣建築物有被伊斯蘭國鎖定的條件與背景,但對於任何有危害到台灣恐怖襲擊情報,台灣的國安與國防單位都會慎重看待與處理。

on.cc東網專訊

【on.cc東網專訊】 回教極端組織「伊斯蘭國」(IS)手段兇殘,現在更可能將矛頭指向台灣,疑似鎖定台北101大樓為攻擊目標。「伊斯蘭國」日前在官方Twitter帳號之 一,發布一張台北101遭攻擊的畫面,直言「阿拉允諾之日不遠了」,台軍的國防部指照片可信度還有待確認,但台軍有萬全的反恐準備。
據台灣媒體報道,伊斯蘭國透過官方Twitter帳號發布照片,從相中所見,台北101大樓被烈火焚燒,周遭宛如戰場。照片附帶的文字還寫道:「當伊斯蘭國攻擊你的城市,它將不會好看;阿拉允諾之日不遠了」。據 悉,發布該張「台北101遭攻擊」的「伊斯蘭國」相關帳號隨即遭到Twitter關閉。事實上,國際黑客組織「匿名者」(Anonymous)上月曾針對 「伊斯蘭國」發出警告,將持續攻擊與「伊斯蘭國」相關的社群網絡帳號,並在「匿名者」的官方網站上公布已遭到癱瘓的帳號,目前要在網上直接找出「伊斯蘭 國」的官方帳號非常困難。台灣會否被伊斯蘭國視為日本、約旦等美國盟邦的下一個攻擊目標,仍是未知之數,但據美國在台協會(AIT)去年底公開的資料顯示,稱讚台灣「為反制伊斯蘭國的聯盟貢獻一己之力」,說明了台灣除了提供700萬美元援助,捐贈超過3000噸的米,還在伊拉克北部建350座組合屋、在土耳其東部設行動醫院等,幫助遭IS肆虐的伊拉克與敘利亞難民,等同於與美國站在同一陣線。

紙包利賓納含酒精 兩女喉嚨灼傷入院

on.cc東網專訊

【on.cc東網專訊】 衞生署衞生防護中心今日(25日)正調查一宗由醫院管理局呈報的個案,涉及47歲女子和9歲女童。據報兩人曾飲用在中環畢打街購買的利賓納紙包裝果汁。

初步調查顯示兩人於2月18日,在中環畢打街一攤檔購買一包裝果汁並飲用,由於該飲品帶有類似酒精味道,她們只喝了一口後隨即吐出。她們報稱逐漸出現喉嚨痛和飲用後感到喉嚨灼熱,兩人同日到將軍澳醫院急症室求醫並留院觀察。該名女子於翌日出院,而女童則於2月20日出院。  

醫院管理局毒理學參考化驗室進行的初步化驗結果顯示,剩餘的果汁樣本含有乙醇。衞生防護中心將聯同警方及食物環境衞生署就個案進行調查,以確定事件的起因。衞生防護中心表示,中心至今未有接獲和包裝果汁有關的類似報告。

差餉估值平均上升6% 小型住宅升幅最高

on.cc東網專訊

【on.cc東網專訊】 差餉物業估價署完成重估2015/16年度全港物業的應課差餉租值,所有物業租值平均上升6%,當中以工業樓升幅最勁,高達10%。住宅單位方面,以面積 752平方呎以下的小型住宅單位升幅最高,達8%;面積介乎753至1075平方呎的中型住宅單位升幅為5%;1076平方呎以上的大型住宅單位升幅為 2%。
以個別屋苑來說,美孚新邨、嘉湖山莊、沙田第一城、新都城的應課差餉租值平均升幅都達10%,其次是德福花園7%,黃埔花園5%,太古城4%,康怡花園2%。

預算案:中產糖仔 退稅2萬子女減稅免差餉

on.cc東網專訊

【on.cc東網專訊】 今年預算案對中產派「糖仔」,屬「小恩小惠」,包括今年度寬減75%的薪俸稅和個人入息課稅,上限為2萬元,料182萬納稅人受惠。利得稅同樣減75%,上限亦為2萬元,料13萬人受惠。

有子女的中產家庭下年度開始可稍減負擔,子女基本及額外免稅額由7萬元增至10萬元,港府將少收20億元。

有樓在手的中產業主亦有受惠,2015/16年首兩季的差餉將獲寬免,每戶每季上限2500元,估計315萬個物業受惠;但電費卻無任何減免。

耶倫指縱改利率前瞻前引 未必短期內加息

money18.on.cc

美國聯儲局主席耶倫出席參議院銀行委員會聽證會,發表半年貨幣政策報告,她表示雖然就業市場改善,但通脹和工資增長仍然過低,又提到即使當局準備修改利率前瞻前引,惟在未來至少兩次會議都不考慮加息,強調要保持政策彈性。

美股在耶倫發言後變化不大,道指曾升最多35點,報18,152點,納指則跌15點,至4,945點。美元匯價做好,衝上119.84日圓,漲0.87%,紐元兌美元挫1.2%,至74.35美仙。

17人急隔離 揭瑪麗防疫漏招

on.cc東網專訊

【on.cc東網專訊】 香港確診入冬以來第3宗外地傳入人類感染甲型禽流感(H7N9)個案,61歲男病人目前仍在瑪麗醫院深切治療部留醫,須用人工肺(ECMO),並有多重器官衰竭,情況危殆。衞生防護中心總監梁挺雄表示,5名瑪麗醫院醫護人員在插喉過程中未做足100%保護要求,被列為密切監察者。醫管局港島西醫院聯網感染 控制主任鄭智聰續指,5名醫護人員當時為病人插喉時,僅帶N95口罩,而沒戴上規定的面罩。

鄭智聰表示,被列密切監察者的5名醫護人員,包括1名插喉的醫生、1名病房助理、1名手術室助理及2名護士,他們暫時沒病徵,如有不適會作快速測試。當時患者情況突然變差需用呼吸機協助呼吸,醫護人員因心急救人,故未做足保護要求。

由於五名瑪麗醫護有感染風險,已成為首批因H7N9被送往麥理浩夫人度假村檢疫隔離的醫護人員。麥理浩度假村入口今日有警車駐守,據悉較早前已有5人被送入隔離,今日再增7人。新增的7人中,除了5人為瑪麗的醫護人員外,餘下2人未能確認身份。

衞生防護中心截至今日,已追蹤17名與患者有密切接觸者及99名其他接觸者,包括82名瑪麗醫護,其中77名屬其他接觸者,正接受醫學監察。5名醫護因沒做 足防護措施,故列為密切接觸者。梁挺雄指,5人已獲處方特敏福,今日送往麥理浩夫人度假村隔離檢疫。按當局要求,他們須完成5日抗病毒藥物療程,若他們本 周一(23日)開始服藥,最快周五(27日)應可結束隔離。另有77名醫護人員曾接觸患者,被列普通接觸,未來20天上班及下班均會量體溫,若不適同樣會 作快速測試或處方特敏福。

鄭智聰指,男病人上周五(20日)到急症室求診時並無發燒,留醫內科病房後始發燒,醫護人員已即時詢問他曾否去內地,他承認曾到東莞,但否認去過街市。本周日(22日)凌晨,病人情況急轉直下,轉入深切治療部,院方再追問患者家人,始得知老翁不單曾到內地街市,更買了2隻已宰的雞帶返港。
※116人需隔離或醫學監察資料:

17名需隔離的密切接觸者:

-患者1名沒有出現病徵的家人

-5名為患者插喉的瑪麗醫院醫護人員

-7名與患者入住瑪麗醫院同一病區的病人

-3名與患者同於香港仔的鍾子超診所求診的病人及1名陪診人士

99名需接受醫學監察的接觸者:

-1名曾到瑪麗醫院探訪患者的家人

-77名曾接觸患者的瑪麗醫院醫護人員

-鍾子超診所的15名接觸者,包括私家醫生、職員和病人

-患者6名同事

(資料來源:衞生防護中心)

2015年2月24日 星期二

毒蟲入藥:網上搜秘方 醫病變攞命

on.cc東網專訊

【on.cc東網專訊】 以毒攻毒可治療痛症?痛症難頂,網上竟流傳多種以有毒昆蟲入藥的中藥秘方,聲稱有效止痛治病,更有售多種可供入藥的昆蟲藥粉,由蠍子、蜈蚣及斑蝥都有,不過早前一名男子在中醫處方下用蠍子粉沖水服用,豈料用藥無效兼全身抽搐,需到醫院求診。註冊中醫師亦警告,以毒昆蟲作治療涉及高風險,可能會引致過敏甚至 中毒,建議市民勿自行亂試。
不少市民難頂痛症煎熬,除了在市面求醫外,更會在網上搜尋藥方,自行對症下藥。原來網上流傳的所謂中藥秘方亦五花八門,當中很多主治痛症的藥方均含有蠍子 粉、蜈蚣及斑蝥等有毒昆蟲,聲稱有通絡止痛及破血逐瘀等功效。除了藥方,內地的購物網站更有售大量原隻乾蠍子、蜈蚣及斑蝥,另外亦有已磨好的藥粉出售,賣 家指明昆蟲是作入藥之用,可治療偏頭痛、破傷風、淋巴結核,甚至中風,售價由1元至40元人民幣不等。雖 然有毒昆蟲看似「能醫百病」,不過胡亂服用恐有中毒危機。早前《香港醫學雜誌》披露,過去曾有一名患有三叉神經痛的63歲男子,向註冊中醫師求診逾月未見好轉,中醫於是處方含「全蠍」的藥方,將原隻蠍子磨粉後沖水飲用,以治療慢性疼痛,但服藥後十五分鐘就因胸口痛、頭暈及全身顫抖致無法步行,其後需到急症 室求醫,專家估計男子曾服用5至6克蠍子粉末。「用 毒昆蟲入藥可以以毒攻毒,但我自己就唔會用,市民千祈唔好亂食。」註冊中醫師李甯漢表示,昆蟲有通絡之用,在《中國藥典》中亦有記載,而蠍子與蜈蚣藥性相 近,可以息風鎮痛及通絡止痛,兩者皆有毒,用全隻煎藥的建議分量為3至5克,而磨粉後的建議分量則只有0.5至1克,「因為全隻煎唔會食隻蟲,但磨粉用就 會食落肚,所以用量會少好多。」而過量服用可致抽筋、手腳麻痺及呼吸困難等中毒症狀。至 於斑蝥的毒性就更強,李甯漢解釋,根據藥典記載,斑蝥雖可針對血氣不良及淋巴結等症狀,但含有大毒,危險性極高,最多只能服用0.03至0.06克,而且多入丸散用,若服用過量更可能中毒身亡。他指有中醫會以有毒昆蟲為病人治醫,但終究有中毒風險,自己從未試過使用,「醫病有好多方法,唔一定要用毒蟲,萬 一有人食完中毒就大件事。」衞 生署發言人指,全蠍、蜈蚣及斑蝥均含有毒性,而斑蝥亦是《中醫藥條例》附表一列明的31種毒性中藥材之一,必須經註冊中醫處方才能購買,並要遵從中醫指示 的煎煮和使用方法。服用毒性中藥材若藥量稍有不當或誤服可致中毒,嚴重甚至死亡,提醒市民必須遵從中醫師指示的方法使用毒性中藥,另外市民自行購買及使用 中藥前,應先請教中醫,切勿罔自購藥及自行配處方,如病情持續或變得嚴重應盡快求醫。根據當局數據,2012至2014年因服用中藥而中毒的確診及懷疑個 案分別為27、33及29宗。

愛爾蘭Donegal生蠔涉諾如病毒 禁止輸港

on.cc東網專訊

【on.cc東網專訊】 食環署食物安全中心表示,已禁止愛爾蘭Donegal County出產的生蠔入口香港。中心表示,最近跟進由諾如病毒引起的食物中毒個案時,接獲愛爾蘭當局通知,在來自Donegal County一生產生蠔的加工企業內檢出有關病毒,為審慎起見上周二(17日)已禁止所有來自該郡的生蠔入口香港,但今日發現有源自該郡的生蠔經由法國入 口,有關入口商已自願將涉事批次生蠔交予中心銷毀。
除愛爾蘭當局外,中心亦已把決定通報世界衞生組織和聯合國糧食及農業組織,轄下的國際食品安全當局網絡,以及近期從愛爾蘭進口生蠔的入口商。

A New World Currency Is On The Way But Here Is The Biggest Surprise

kingworldnews.com

As the world continues to digest breaking news out of Greece and Ukraine, the Godfather of newsletter writers, 90-year old Richard Russell, warned that a new world currency is on the way but he also spoke about what will be the biggest surprise about this new currency.  Russell also spoke about how this will impact the entire world, including major markets. 

Richard Russell:  On Friday the Dow closed at a new record high. But today it appeared that the market was consolidating its gains. There are two ways to operate in a bull market. When we're early in a bull market, dividends are higher and stocks are relatively cheap, we can take a large position on the thesis that losses are limited.  

Proceed With Caution
 
However, with the market as high as it is, and dividend yields low, if we insist on playing with the bull, it makes sense to move in with a smaller position. If the market continues higher, you can add to your position. But if the market goes belly up, you’re out with a small loss.

Gold Waiting On Greece
 
Gold as I write is holding above its support level of 1200. It appears to be waiting for either the Fed or Greece or both. The Greece situation now looks unsaveable. As usual, any settlement will be put off for as long as possible in the hopes that some miracle will fix the situation.

Russell Prediction – Expect New (Golden) World Currency
 
In the meantime, investors looking for safety and possible appreciation have been pouring into the US dollar. I fear the dollar has been overdone and is overbought. Where to go next? Some will forget the dollar and buy the world’s safest currency, which, as you know, is gold. My prediction – a new world currency will be created. Gold will be an integral part of the new world currency.

 
World Choking On Debt – "Inflate Or Die"
 
The world is choking on too much debt. There are two choices, the debt can be reneged on, or it must be inflated away. The least painful method is the one of inflation. Many years ago, I came up with the slogan "inflate or die." That slogan still applies. Buy physical silver and gold while they are cheap and readily available.


Not So Free Markets
 
For 65 years I've depended on the free markets to discount the future. Today with the central banks intervening in the markets, investing is a much more subjective study.
 
Exter's Pyramid And Gold
 
I recently read a long article on deflation versus hyperinflation. The piece drew attention to my old friend John Exter’s inverted pyramid of asset classes. At the bottom of the pyramid is gold, the safest of all investments. The problem is that the world choking on too much credit. The giant mass of credit and loans is deflationary and is causing deflation.




Gold Repricing And Hyperinflation
 
Nobody is talking about increasing the gold portion of the inverted pyramid (see above). To do that would simply require a reset of the gold price to some higher number. Strangely, nobody mentions the price of gold. Raising the price of gold would overnight expand the basis of the inverted pyramid. This would allow the world to continue on its current path. Ultimately I see hyperinflation in our future; my advice is to buy physical gold while it’s cheap and available.



Buy Gold While It's Still Available
 
I suspect that the US economy is not nearly as good as we are told, and as this information becomes news, there will be a rush out of dollars. The money will be put into the only safe currency, which is gold. In closing, I’ll repeat that my subscribers should buy physical gold while it is cheap and available.
 

收市10大要知:注意耶倫及希臘動向

money18.on.cc

滙控(00005)績差,股價全日徘徊69元水平,收市仍跌逾3%,報69.45元,後市去向惹關注。另邊廂,在明日A股開市前夕,聯儲局主席耶倫今晚將發表講話,勢決定明日中港股市表現,以下為「收市10大要知」新聞:

1、大行爭相唱淡滙控 散戶追call
滙控業績差,大行爭相下調目標價,其中瑞穗非常看淡,目標價僅睇60元。有輪商表示,滙控股價跌穿70元, 已見有散戶入市買Call輪博反彈,行使價主要集中在72至75元,槓桿約10倍,年期集中在今年7至8月到期,買Call輪及Put輪的比例大約為4比 1。今日大部分滙控Put輪價升幅介乎3至4成,已見有部分資金獲利先行離場,但未見有入市追Put輪盤的情況出現。

2、耶倫「扮鴿」定「扮鷹」 今晚11時揭幕
周二市場焦點轉至聯儲局。香港時間今晚11時,聯儲局主席耶倫將會在美國國會參議院作證,她的表態或為金融市場帶來動盪。市場多數分析認為,耶倫證詞可能「偏鴿派」,不會帶來負面訊息,即她所準備的講稿基調不大可能會偏離1月份會議紀錄。
不過,也有分析認為,耶倫講話可能「偏鷹派」,將為聯儲局在年中加息開啟大門。耶倫或表明「耐心」措辭非無限期,當前市場多數經濟學家普遍認為,聯儲局將在 6月加息;此外,美元不斷上升也給聯儲局盡早加息提供支持,因此預計耶倫今日講話中可能會透露聯儲局將盡快剔除「耐心」字眼。

3、港股全日跌86點 靠中移頂住
港股羊年第2個交易日低開低走,主要受滙控與3大油股拖累。恒指全日收報24,750點,跌86點;國指則跌4.7點至12,046點,主板成交579億元。滙控業績差過市場預期,拖累股價失守70元大關,全日跌3.54%至69.45元。3大油股全線下跌,中石油(00857)與中海油(00883)俱跌0.9%,中石化(00386)尾市跌幅收窄,最後收報6.42元。中移(00941)與友邦(01299)逆市表現亮麗,前者全日升1.05%至105.9元,後者更升2.36%至45.6元。

4、傳希臘已提交改革措施
外電引述歐盟消息人士報道,希臘財長已於周一午夜向歐盟、歐央行,以及國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)提交改革措施,改革清單符合歐元區財長要求;歐盟委員會相信希臘改革措施會非常全面,將是經濟重啟的有效起點。希臘股市開市盤大漲7%,創2014年12月9日來最高,銀行股指數大漲14%。

5、歐股靜待耶倫言論
希臘問題漸變明朗,歐盟對改革方案評價正面,市場焦點轉至聯儲局主席耶倫言論,歐洲3大指數今日開市稍作回吐,英國富時 100指數報6,909點,跌2點或0.03%,巴黎CAC指數報4,867點,升5點或0.11%,法蘭克福DAX指數報11,133點,升2點或 0.03%。

6、歐火頭跳至法國削赤 歐盟警告或制裁
希臘問題逐漸淡化,火頭有機會在法國燃燒。據德國《商報》報道,法國希望將預算赤字目標推遲3年至 2018年,該目標為預算赤字佔國民生產總值(GDP)比例少於3%。因法國希望在2017年總統大選中,避開不受歡迎的緊縮措施和結構改革辯論。歐盟執 委會經濟事務執委莫斯可維西更稱,若歐盟和法國無法就法國減赤和改革是否到位達成一致看法,或有必要對法國實施制裁。

7、貨幣大戰:新西蘭降通脹預期 紐元澳元現沽壓
新西蘭央行下調通脹預期,紐元兌美元周二亞洲市見沽壓,拖累澳元也跌至3個交易日低點。新西蘭央 行發表調查顯示,2年通脹預期降至1999年以來最低。最新通脹預期自此前的2.06%下調至1.80%。受數據影響,紐元兌美元大幅下跌,連累「高息孖 寶」澳元亦偏軟,因投資者認為澳洲通脹趨勢與新西蘭類似,可能會逼使澳洲再減息,澳元兌美元最低見0.7763,跌0.5%。

8、電能去年多賺逾4倍 派息2.01元無特別息
電能實業(00006) 公布,截至去年12月底止全年錄得股東應佔溢利按年增長446%至610.05億元,2013年同期錄111.65億元;當中包括去年1月分拆香港電力業 務所得的一次收益529.28億元。每股盈利28.58元,派息2.01元。若撇除這項一次收益,集團溢利80.77億元,較2013年同期111.65 億元,下降28%,主要由於所持香港電力業務股權由100%減至49.9%,以及英國公司稅稅率於2013年由23%下調至20%所帶來的遞延稅項抵免。

9、恒生:目前未有計劃出售煙台銀行
恒生(00011)全年業績未有提及會否就出售5%興業銀行股權而派發特別息,財務總監梁永樂重申,要考慮未來發展需求及當局對銀行的資本要求而決定。該行副董事長兼行政總裁李慧敏重申,對於會否出售餘下的5.87%興業銀行股權,暫未有定案,惟指目前未有計劃出售煙台銀行的投資。

10、中國郵政IPO或籌250億美元 比拼阿里史上最大
《金融時報》引述消息指,中國郵政儲蓄的首次公開募股(IPO)可望集資100億至 250億美元的資金,有望成為史上最大的IPO之一。最高情況下,可能達到去年阿里巴巴IPO的創紀錄250億美元。消息又指,中國郵政儲蓄正和潛在投資者進行磋商,尋求在上市前出售少量股權,最快或在明年初上市;潛在的投資者包括支付寶母公司螞蟻金服。阿里巴巴已經和世界銀行的私營部門國際金融公司 (IFC)達成合作關係,在中國提供小額貸款服務。

去年染愛滋病新增個案共651宗 上升16%

on.cc東網專訊

【on.cc東網專訊】 衞生防護中心去年共接獲651宗感染愛滋病病毒的新增個案,較2013年的559宗多92宗,增加16%。
在去年的651宗新增個案中,378人透過同性或雙性性接觸受感染,124人經異性性接觸受感染,5名為注射毒品人士,1人則在香港以外地區透過輸血或血製品受感染,而餘下143名感染者的傳播途徑因資料不足暫時未能確定。而去年第4季共有152宗愛滋病病毒新感染個案,當中有125名男性和27名女性,其中82人透過同性或雙性性接觸受感染,25人經異性性接觸受感染,餘下 45名感染者的傳播途徑因資料不足暫時未能確定。另外,同季共有21宗愛滋病新增個案,其中38%透過異性性接觸受感染,另38%則經同性或雙性性接觸受感染。

中大斥60億建中產醫院 需向政府貸款

咁正 ?

on.cc東網專訊

【on.cc東網專訊】 中大校長沈祖堯今午在春茗宣布,落實興建中文大學醫院,地點在中大附近,投資總額為60億元,包括興建7.8萬平方米建築大樓,以及添置醫療器材,將會以非牟利形式服務中產人士。
沈祖堯又指,已成立醫院董事局,主席為利乾,威院前行政總監馮康則為執董,醫院料在2016年首季動工,2019年落成,暫時已獲馬會捐款13億元,另亦有其他善長捐款,又承認需向政府借貸;消息指借貸額約為40億元。

荷蘭公司推移民火星 內地媒體質疑是騙局

on.cc東網專訊

【on.cc東網專訊】 荷蘭一家私人公司「火星一號」早前公布並主導的火星探索移民計劃,目標是在火星建立永久殖民地,並計劃在2016年發射衛星前往火星。自計劃徵求志願者時,全球已經有8萬多人報名,其中中國就有1萬多人報名。可是,有國內媒體指這個計劃可能只是一個騙局。
據 《新京報》指,「火星一號」是在2011年6月23日註冊的機構,但該項目負責人日前在接受採訪時卻對計劃打了退堂鼓,他認為這個​​項目的複雜性超出了 他們的想像,2023年恐怕難以成行。目前,中國的報名者已經為該項目貢獻了10多萬美元報名費,有報名者想退費卻被拒。有記者發現該公司註冊地址是荷蘭阿默斯福特的一處民居,也是被諸多媒體稱為「首席執行官」的巴斯‧蘭斯多普的個人登記住址,登記僱員卻只有1人。而現場的辦 公地點也沒有「火星一號」的相關標識,蘭斯多普和他的同事只是在一大片開放辦公區域中佔據了幾張桌子。因此,國內媒體推斷「火星一號」移民計劃很有可能只 是一場商業騙局。

This Is The Biggest Problem Facing The World Today: 9 Countries Have Debt-To-GDP Over 300%

www.zerohedge.com

If anyone has stopped to ask just why global central banks are in such a rush to create inflation (but only controlled inflation, not runaway hyperinflation... of course when they fail with the "controlled" part the money paradrop is only a matter of time) over the past 5 years, and have printed over $12 trillion in credit-money since Lehman, the bulk of which has ended up in the stock market, and which for the first time ever are about to monetize all global sovereign debt issuance in 2015, the answer is simple, and can be seen on the chart below.

It also shows the biggest problem facing the world today, namely that at least 9 countries have debt/GDP above 300%, and that a whopping 39% countries have debt-to-GDP of over 100%!



We have written on this topic on countless occasions in the past, so we will be brief: either the Fed inflates this debt away, or one can kiss any hope of economic growth goodbye, even if that means even more central bank rate cuts, more QEs everywhere, and stock markets trading at +? while the middle class around the globe disappears and only the 0.001% is left standing.
Finally, those curious just how the world got to this unprecedented and sorry state, this full breakdown courtesy of McKinsey should answer all questions.

印度流感肆虐 833人死亡1.4萬人感染

on.cc東網專訊

【on.cc東網專訊】 最新數據顯示,甲型H1N1流感繼續在印度多地肆虐,截至周日已導致833人死亡,感染人數超過1.4萬人。

甲型H1N1流感是豬流感的主要類型,症狀與普通流感相似,世界衞生組織統計顯示該型流感死亡率達6.77%。
  
今年以來,印度西部古吉拉特邦、拉賈斯坦邦等地陸續爆發甲型H1N1流感疫情,官方表示密切關注疫情蔓延情況,並組織醫院、門診、學校等開展預防工作。一些官員認為疫情尚在可控範圍。  

截至目前,印度首都新德里共有8名患者死亡,另有2241人感染。據《印度快報》報道,新德里一些醫院缺乏口罩,醫生們面臨著被感染的風險,而相關防治藥品近期也大幅漲價。  

當地專家警告,印度很可能重現2009年至2010年導致3000人死亡的大規模流感疫情,並且態勢可能更為嚴重。

Nutella朱古力瓶折射陽光 英家庭付諸一炬

on.cc東網專訊

【on.cc東網專訊】 英國倫敦西南部一個家庭日前外出時,家中失火,罪魁禍首竟是一瓶朱古力醬。

戶主墨菲一家四口外出慶祝結婚周年之際,住所遭祝融光顧,受到嚴重破壞,留在家中的寵物犬一命嗚呼。消防調查後認定,放在窗台的一瓶Nutella朱古力醬令陽光折射,燒着窗布,火勢一發不可收拾,波及全屋。

西伯利亞現4巨坑 專家:或與全球暖化有關

on.cc東網專訊

【on.cc東網專訊】 科學家近日在俄羅斯西伯利亞的雅馬半島發現4個巨坑,相信有更多未被發現。科學家擔心,由於地球氣溫不斷上升,可能未來會出現更多類似巨坑。
坑洞最大的有4個,其中一個足足100米乘50米,另外各自附近有數十個較小的坑。其中一個巨坑距離天然氣生產廠不足10公里,當中有兩個巨坑現已形成湖。坑洞形成的原因,相信是由於地底的永久凍土開始融化,當中的甲烷氣爆發所致。科學家現正深入調查這些坑洞,並指可能還有更多巨坑未被發現,數量可達30個。當地近年來也發現過其他巨坑,專家擔心,隨全球氣球暖化,類似的巨坑可能陸續有來。

多按及收緊按揭恐慌 買家趕上車

money18.on.cc

近日市場關注多按盤及細價樓爆煲問題,市傳政府有機會出招收緊細價樓按揭成數;香港仔住宅項目南灣御園一個曾先後承做按揭10次,現餘下3次按揭未還的單位,竟減價至778萬元,低市價約10%沽貨;另外,上車客恐收窄樓按再難上車,在屯門區搵樓半年的買家亦加速入市,睇樓僅數日即以350萬元購入屯門豐景園單位,實用呎價高逾1萬元。

多按住宅有爆煲危機。中原周世康稱,南灣御園低層單位,實用面積684方呎,望全海景,三房間隔,去年7 月承做3次按揭貸款;單位於9月以約818萬元放盤,近期業主急於套現,終減至778萬元沽貨,實用呎價約11,374元,同類單位市價達850萬至 900萬元,是次成交低市價10%。

據土地註冊處資料,上址2009年以約600萬元購入,其後先後承按或借貸共10次,當中3次於去年 的一個月內承做,包括1項40萬元私人名義按揭貸款。市場估計,去年的3次按揭有機會是用作償還再早前的樓按。事實上,同區二手市況不俗。周氏續稱,香港 仔中心Q座高層1室,剛售895萬元,實用呎價13,479元創屋苑新高。

公屋方面,土地註冊處資料,長沙灣李鄭屋邨道德樓中高層10室,過去先後曾承按或借貸5次,上月售230萬元。資料顯示,沙田博康邨博智樓高層14室,售價達330萬元。據悉,單位實用面積343方呎,實用呎價9,621元,料創屋苑新高。

部分上車客恐再出招加快入市。美聯陸家民稱,屯門搵樓半年多上車客,過去年三十晚參觀同區豐景園5座中層5室,擔心政府收緊樓按阻礙上車,為確保可以九成樓 按入市,初四即以350萬元購入單位,實用呎價10,264元。中原黎浚宇稱,沙田第一城羊年亦錄成交,屋苑38座高層F室售420萬元,實用呎價逾 1.47萬元。

該行馬斯力稱,天水圍居屋天祐苑A座中層14室,外區租客「無樓睇」及不講價下承接,自由市場價325萬元,實用呎價7,420元,創同類新高。將軍澳屋苑連錄買賣,市場消息稱,將軍澳廣場3座高層E室,買家睇樓即日以550萬元購入,實用呎價約1.28萬元。

財經事務及庫務局局長陳家強表示,留意到細價樓升幅顯著,他提醒市民若要加按及多按物業,要衡量自己承受風險的能力,政府會不斷監察整體銀行按揭,並會因應市況變化決定是否增加遏抑樓市措施或其他政策。

另置業18主席張肇栓稱,旗下理財18為有「生意」買家,承做最多達十成按揭計劃,為方便買家更靈活調配資金;如市況轉好,旗下置業18及理財18亦會在羊年擴充。

2015年2月23日 星期一

希臘耍賴本色不變 全球股市無法樂觀

money18.on.cc

自希臘左翼聯盟在國會選舉中大勝後,希臘脫歐談得沸沸揚揚,不過,新一輪歐債危機在上星期歐央行,落實給希臘四個月寬限期,同時落幕,環球金融市場,當成一枚金融核彈成功被拆除一樣,德國及美國華爾街股市,創下歷史新高。

打着反歐盟旗號的希臘總理齊普拉斯,以「打贏一場戰役,卻未打贏整場戰爭」形容目前的形勢。馬拉松談判中,希臘擺出又要耍賴,又要伸手態度,逼到歐盟集團在財政紀律的制約上,作出妥協,表面贏得漂亮,事實上,齊普拉斯折起衣袖,打爛仔交的姿態,不單挑起希臘人對德國人的仇恨,甚至以脫歐後,向俄羅斯及中國尋求財政支援作威脅,或者,新一筆72億歐元援助會到手,但代價非輕,得罪歐盟老大哥德國,尤其說了德國人禁語,要求就二次大戰賠償的舊帳,惹來德國政商界 對希臘新政府不滿,向歐盟施壓,不應再縱容希臘政府不負責任行為。

講到底,過去5年,希臘依賴歐盟分階段援助貸款度日,國內經濟是百廢待 興,失業率兩成半,即4個勞動人口就有一個是失業大軍,經濟規模由08年高峰期萎縮近三分一,齊普拉斯亦是看準德國為保持歐盟版圖完整,向遲遲不願入歐的 英國及瑞士,作出親和力示範的心態,不惜付出少少代價,才以缸瓦撼瓷器的心態與歐盟集團談判。

但此險着可一不可再,從德國民間反彈可見一 二,而希臘本身底子太弱,天文數字負債,當地銀行若非歐央行提供流動性,早就關門大吉,齊普拉斯以美國量寬作為例子,認為不應守歐盟集訂下嚴苛的財政紀 律,但作為全球最重要結算貨幣,美元當然有價有市,希臘脫歐用回自身貨幣,百分百可以預見,匯率勁貶與經濟崩瀉。毫無疑問,德國向希臘左翼聯盟先禮後兵, 讓出一小步展現出老大哥氣量,給予希臘4個月時間,可見未來,希臘無可避免步舊任政府後塵,看歐盟面色做人,樂觀的股市最怕希臘左翼三分顏色上大紅,一年半載後重施故技,逼到德國決斷地關上水喉。

滙控倫敦股價瀉逾5% 跌穿70關

on.cc東網專訊

【on.cc東網專訊】 滙控(00005)公布去年全年業績,2014年稅前利潤下降17%至186.8億美元,遠遜市場預期中值215億美元。業績主要反映出售業務利潤及重新分類增益減少,以及罰款、和解開支、英國客戶賠償及相關準備等重大項目對收入和支出產生的負面影響。

業績出爐後,拖累倫敦股價急跌,折合港幣低見67.99元,較本港收市72元跌5.57%。

飛機燃油附加費下月勁減近半

on.cc東網專訊

【on.cc東網專訊】 民航處公布,航空公司3月份獲准徵收的航空客運燃油附加費水平,其中短途航班最高為42元,長途航班最高為187元,減幅各約48%。處方表示,客運燃油附加費是在航油價格出現波動時,幫助航空公司收回部分額外經營成本。

民航處會每月覆檢航空公司的客運燃油附加費,上月公布的附加費水平,短途航班最高為81元,長途航班最高為356元。

Alan Greenspan Warns: There Will Be a “Significant Market Event... Something Big Is Going To Happen”

www.zerohedge.com

Submited by Mac Slavo via SHTFPlan.com,

With the Federal Reserve printing trillions upon trillions of dollars to keep the economic system afloat, many investors and financial pundits have surmised that the fundamental economic problems facing the United States during the crash of 2008 have been resolved. Stocks are, after all, at historic highs.

But the insiders know different. And if there’s any single person out there who understands U.S. monetary policy and its long-term effects on domestic and global affairs it’s former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan. As the head of the world’s most powerful central bank for nearly two decades he’s privy to the insider conversations and government machinations that have brought us to where we are today.

Greenspan recently joined veteran resource analyst Brien Lundin at the New Orleans Investment Conference to share some of his thoughts. According to Lundin, the former Fed chairman made it clear that the central bank is facing a serious problem and one that will have significant ramifications in the future.

We asked him where he thought the gold price will be in five years and he said “measurably higher.”

In private conversation I asked him about the outstanding debts… and that the debt load in the U.S. had gotten so great that there has to be some monetary depreciation. Specially he said that the era of quantitative easing and zero-interest rate policies by the Fed… we really cannot exit this without some significant market event… By that I interpret it being either a stock market crash or a prolonged recession, which would then engender another round of monetary reflation by the Fed.

He thinks something big is going to happen that we can’t get out of this era of money printing without some repercussions – and pretty severe ones – that gold will benefit from.
If we are in fact staring a major market event in the face as Alan Greenspan proposes then wealth preservation should be a key tenet of any preparedness strategy going forward. Greenspan himself, somewhat ironically, was a gold bug and proponent of sound money prior to his appointment as the chairman of the Fed. And though he didn’t discuss it much during his tenure, he is now actively saying that we can expect to see gold markedly higher within the next five years.
His assessment is likely based on concerns over the U.S. dollar which will, as Lundin notes, more than likely suffer a currency devaluation at some point in the future.
The end has to come at some point...  If you look at a chart of the U.S. dollar index it has gone nearly parabolic in the last few months… In any market that is so one sided, that is accelerating so rapidly, that trend will end… it will most likely end in a fairly violent fashion.
And if gold rises as a result, so too will other resource assets in the energy and mining sectors. What it boils down to is that the assets that are necessary to keep our system operating will always have value, and that is especially true in a situation where the U.S. dollar happens to be crashing. Uranium , for example, powers one in five American homes, which means that it will always be a necessary resource, regardless of what the dollar does or doesn’t do. Lundin’s assessment is echoed by Uranium Energy Corp CEO Amir Adnani, who recently said we may well see a “resurgence” in the price of this and natural resources like gold.

The same can be said for oil and agriculture resources.

They will always have value, regardless of whether the dollar is strong or violently collapses under its own weight.

Thus, when we consider ways to preserve wealth and insulate ourselves from the coming destruction of our currency one must consider holding physical assets. For some that means stockpiling food and other supplies in anticipation of Greenspan’s market event that could adversely affect credit flows and delivery of essential goods. For others who may currently hold stocks, U.S. Treasurys, or cash, diversifying your portfolio with well managed resource-based companies will not only preserve wealth during currency volatility, but build it as the value of real, physical assets rises.

The man who is essentially the architect responsible for domestic monetary policy under four U.S. Presidents has now said that a significant market event will take place when the Fed is eventually forced to exit their monetary easing and zero-interest rate policies.

Are you prepared for that day?

開市10大必睇:恒指羊年紅盤有望上試2萬5

money18.on.cc

今日為羊年首個交易日,港股在農曆新年休市期間,外圍焦點落在希臘「續命」問題上,雖然歐盟與希臘在上周五最後關頭達成協議,但德國昨日又再發難,表示本月內國會難以批准方案,令希臘問題仍充滿變數。以下為「開市10大必睇」:

1、恒指有望上試25000點關口
港股迎來羊年首個交易日,在農曆新年長假期間,希臘的債務問題商討初見成果,帶動道指上周五創歷史新高,證券界預期恒指有望上試25,000點關口,待周三內地股市復市後,港股走勢將更趨熱鬧。

2、滙控恒生今公布業績
港股本周開始進入業績高峰期,滙控(00005)及恒生(00011)今日公布業績。長實(00001)周三就重組召開股東會後,周四將與和黃(00013)一同公布業績。
受 炒房表現不濟及龐大合規支出壓力拖累,綜合19名分析員預測,滙控去年稅前盈利中位數為214.49億美元,按年減少4.9%。儘管監管機構及傳媒關注近 日滙控旗下瑞士私人銀行涉嫌協助客戶避稅事宜,惟大行認為對滙控帳目影響不大,法巴更憧憬集團為慶祝成立150周年,會輕微增派中期息至每股11美仙。

3、耶倫周中發表講話成市場焦點
希臘問題暫且緩解,市場今周焦點料落在美國聯儲局身上。聯儲局主席耶倫將在周二及周三於美國參眾兩院發表證詞,如果耶倫強調近來美國就業市場和經濟前景良 好,勢會強化市場對今年加息的看法,這將繼續令美元強勢,從而打壓股市及商品市場。反之,如果耶倫在加息問題上仍然表現謹慎,則有望令股市延續強勢。

4、內地樓價大跌5%創紀錄 減息機會增
內地70個最大城市1月份住宅價格按年下跌5.1%,創下紀錄最大跌幅;1月份平均價格按月亦下降0.4%。值得留意的是,2014年大多數城市取消購房限 制,房貸利率和首付比例亦被調低,但結果並未明顯。據資料顯示,截至2014年底,房貸平均利率6.25厘,僅比2014年初6.54厘略降,故市場仍憧憬中央再度減貸息。

5、希局勢恐變 德揚言月底前不會批准延長援助
希臘「續命」問題又有新進展。外電報道,德國國會不會批准延長原本在2月底到期的希臘救助計劃,並形容國會在2月底前對「過渡協議」能有最終決定是「不可思議」。歐盟財長會原本在上周五與希臘達成延長救助協議,當時得到包括德國在內的國會支持。

6、高盛預警美股現時估值僅次科網爆煲
美 股縱然在上周五再創新高,但亦傳出不少投資名宿紛紛減持美股,當中包括善於「估頂」的索羅斯。如今高盛亦認為,目前美股處於「極度超買」,在過去40年 內,僅有科技泡沫時代出現過更高的估值。高盛表示,現時已很難找到具投資價值的股份,整體標指市盈率已達17.3倍,企業價值倍數為10.2倍。
回顧過去40年,僅1997至2000年的科技泡沫時代出現過更高的估值,當時市盈率和企業價值倍數分別為18和11倍。

7、「同股不同權」第2輪諮詢料難短期出台
面對科網巨企棄港赴美上市壓力愈來愈大,市場關注一直對「同股不同權」態度強硬的證監會,會否放行港交所(00388)建議進行第2輪正式諮詢。消息透露,港交所就不同投票權架構首輪諮詢的回應結果及建議下一步行動已提交證監會審閱,證監會初步態度審慎,需要時間研究,特別關注正式諮詢的具體建議內容,以及投資者保障是否足夠,故第2輪諮詢料未必於短期內出台。

8、內地新股「註冊制」改革傳5月實施
內地證券市場開放速度不斷加快,當中新股「註冊制」改革傳最快5月1日實施,市場認為對本港新股市場最具威脅,因日後審批期短至3個月,部分原計劃來港上市 的內地企業「打退堂鼓」,有意轉投更熾熱及更高市盈率的A股市場,有律師行更估計,往海外註冊後來港申請上市的內地企業,或會較過去減少約1成。

9、湯文亮:銀主盤增加 樓市爆煲不遠
紀惠集團行政總裁湯文亮發表題為「銀主盤將會逐漸增多」的文章,指本來在樓市仍然處於上升情況,銀主盤是不會出現,但最近銀主盤漸漸增多,業界不但不關心,反而那些專業人士三番四次說樓市健康,他感到奇怪,若大家掉以輕心,當發覺銀主盤增加的時候,已離樓市爆煲不遠。

10、市區5球盤僅餘淘大得寶不足20伙
樓價癲升,市區大型屋苑500萬元以下的上車盤勢消失。港島藍籌上車終站鰂魚涌南豐新邨,目前叫價已由530萬元起,而九龍荔枝角美孚新邨及紅磡黃埔花園質 素稍遜的500萬元以下放盤亦沽清,現時市區大型屋苑僅餘九龍灣淘大花園及得寶花園仍有500萬元以下單位,但盤量已跌至約20伙,踏入倒數階段。有學者 認為,上車客將繼續「愈買愈細、愈買愈遠」。

陳家強提醒大家「小心加按」

money18.on.cc

財經事務及庫務局局長陳家強表示,留意到細價樓升價顯著,主要由於目前利息低企,及上車人士需求強。他提醒市民若要加按或多按,要衡量自己承受風險的能力,要注意一旦加息及樓市逆轉的風險。

他又估計,今年的外圍經濟環境與去年相若,但今年有幾個利好因素,包括是油價跌、歐洲經濟復甦及各國央行減息,但他指要視乎歐洲復甦步伐,亦不認為靠貨幣貶值支持復甦。

至於美國何時加息,他表示,要視乎美國的數據,香港則跟隨加息。他又指,若內地央行再減息,對香港是好事。

Clarion Call: Why the American Mall is Dying

www.silverdoctors.com

There is serious trouble brewing for the remaining retail malls in the states, and it isn’t simply due to the “digital shopping revolution”.  

The truth is that something ominous and gruesome is starting to be felt throughout the entire retail sector, and these are just the first casualties.

What is occurring is a tragic but predictable consequence of something sinister, that we’ve entirely allowed to happen, and the pain is only just beginning…

恐怖分子瞄準商場 美加加強保安措施

on.cc東網專訊

【on.cc東網專訊】 在索馬里恐怖分子對商場發出威脅後,美國國土安全部長約翰遜說,會嚴肅看待威脅,敦促民眾前往這些商場時加倍警惕。
與阿蓋德有聯繫的索馬里回教極端組織「青年黨」在網上發放新視頻,號召向西方國家的商場和購物中心發動襲擊。被列為目標的商場包括明尼蘇達州的美國商場 (Mall of America)、加拿大艾伯塔省的西埃德蒙頓商場(West Edmonton Mall),以及英國倫敦的著名購物中心牛津街。

約翰遜周日接受有線電視新聞網絡(CNN)《美國國情》(State of the Union)節目專訪時說,前去明尼蘇達州這家超級購物中心的顧客應當特別謹慎。威脅襲擊西方國家商場的索馬里青年黨,曾承認2013年向肯雅首都西門購物中心(Westgate Mall)發動恐襲。該宗舉世震驚的恐襲歷時4天,攻入商場的多名槍手造成60多人喪生。加拿大警方說,目前無證據顯示加拿大受到即時或特定威脅。英國警方表示,正評估情況。美國商場和西埃德蒙頓商場發表聲明,表示正加強保安措施。

次輪膠袋稅豁免麵包冷凍產品 新例太鬆捱批

on.cc東網專訊

【on.cc東網專訊】 環保署4月1日起實施第二階段膠袋徵費計劃,範圍擴至全港逾九成、約10萬間零售點,在時裝店、書店或是兼售護髮用品的髮型屋購物,索取一個膠袋最少要付 5毫。不過,新例未能打擊麵包店「袋中袋」濫發膠袋問題,罐裝飲品常溫時索袋要付稅,雪凍後卻可拿免費膠袋,隨時引發爭論。環保團體批評新措施仍然寬鬆, 計劃自發到街市或麵包店加強宣傳,呼籲商戶減少派發不必要的膠袋。

環境保護署助理署長黎耀基接受東方報業集團訪問時說,新的膠袋徵費已由登記零售點收費擴展至交易層面,但凡以零售方式出售商品,顧客索取含塑膠成分的購物袋,如平頭袋、手挽袋或膠面紙袋等,每個膠袋最少收費5毫,推算徵費範圍將由現時3千多間零售點大幅增至10萬間。他理解市民有必要用膠袋保障食物衞生, 次階段徵費時,所有冰凍和沒有密封包裝的食品如急凍肉類、保鮮紙包裝的食品,索膠袋並不收費,沒有包裝的食品如蔬果和麵包等更可獲發雙重膠袋。現時麵包店濫發膠袋問題嚴重,所用包裝膠袋隨時是所購麵包的倍數,記者日前在葵芳一間連鎖麵包店視察,店員在15分鐘已向40名客人派發67個膠袋,四成半客人索取2個膠袋以上,高峰期更有「4個麵包、5個膠袋」。黎耀基解釋,因麵包入袋後仍然沒有密封,新例之下仍可再取免費膠袋,他理解環團關注麵包「袋中袋」造成浪費,但若將麵包轉為鮮魚、肉類等濕貨,市民的反應可能截然不同。他強調新例目的是清晰易明和統一收費,免混淆商戶及惹市民反彈,加上環團計劃在麵包店宣傳減廢活動,相信濫發問題會有改善。至於在超市購買貨架上的常溫罐裝汽水,客人結帳時索取膠袋便要繳付膠袋稅,但若汽水放在雪櫃冷藏,是否可獲發免費膠袋?答案是需繳膠袋稅。黎直認法例上確有此分別,「但係你買罐雪凍汽水,理應畀完錢就開嚟飲,冇必要拎個膠袋」,除非客人藉着買少量豁免收費的物品取得免稅膠袋,再把所有物品「袋袋平安」。黎強調盛載豁免物品時才能獲取免費膠袋,若同時盛載徵費的物品便要收取膠袋稅,他強調新例只罰商戶,不罰消費者,認為商戶應衡量利弊,遇到麻煩客人可拒絕派 袋。綠領行動總幹事何漢威慨嘆說,新例未能減少爭拗,亦未能遏止麵包店濫發膠袋問題,證明法例有不足之處,但理解法例在食品「漏汁」上難以劃界,但港府有必要加 強溝通和宣傳,鼓勵商戶減少濫發膠袋。世界綠色組織政策倡議經理黃俊賢認同一刀切豁免冰凍物品做法確較寬鬆,但新的徵費範圍增至10萬間,認為仍有進步, 市民是需時適應細節安排,建議港府是時候着手鼓勵市民外出自備膠盒。

水仙炒牛肉 四口家中毒

on.cc東網專訊

【on.cc東網專訊】 水仙是熱門年花,但全棵植物含毒,只宜觀賞,切勿進食。香港中毒諮詢中心去年錄得三千六百多宗中毒個案,當中二十九人死亡。該中心接獲歷來首宗水仙中毒個 案,有十一歲女童誤把水仙頭當洋葱煮食,炮製「水仙頭炒牛肉」,結果一家四口中毒入急症室。專家提醒,水仙含生物鹼,進食後可致上吐下瀉。英國每年約有二 十宗誤吃水仙的中毒個案,中國人因水仙中毒則非常罕見。

2015年2月22日 星期日

新病毒侵Android機 假關機真監控

on.cc東網專訊

【on.cc東網專訊】 新手機病毒入侵Android手機,即使關機都可暗地控制手機裝置,市民務需慎防!有網上最新資料指出,殺毒軟件公司AVG最近發現名為 「PowerOffHijack」的Android惡意軟件,此軟件令手機看似已關機,但實際上仍對手機進行窺探,即就算用戶關機後,手機的裝置並沒有真 正關機。
據了解,「PowerOffHijack」可控制用戶手機撥打電話、拍照,甚至在用戶不知情的情況下,執行其它任務。一旦用戶關機,它會顯示假的關機畫面,將屏幕關閉,惟手機則仍處於開機狀態。而為避免遭用戶識穿,「PowerOffHijack」亦會控制一切手機通知。香港專業教育學院IVE(青衣)工程系系主任趙炳權指,此類惡意軟件通常透過用戶下載應用程式(Apps)、開啟電郵或WhatsApp檔案時,悄悄安裝到手機上,呼籲市民勿任意安裝來源不明的Apps,亦應安裝可靠防毒軟件保護手機。

預算案公布在即 財爺指難有大改動

on.cc東網專訊

【on.cc東網專訊】 新一份財政預算案本周三公布,財政司司長曾俊華在其網誌撰文「發功」,稱正為預算案做最後準備工作,從不同角度思考社會各階層的關注,但他形容預算案有如 「已放進焗爐的蛋撻,廚師想再調味都會有一定困難。」意味預算案內容難再有大改動。

另外,公眾一直不滿政府官員經常扮演「人肉錄音機」,重複又重複回應了無新意的政策;惟財爺卻「迎難而上」推薦一套名為「Game Change」的外語電影,講述參選美國副總統的候選人,最終以「人肉錄音機」策略,死記硬背成功渡過難關,人氣還愈來愈盛。而在網誌後段,財爺表示他剛開設社交網站Facebook帳號,希望增加與大眾互動的渠道,又指不少海外政府官員和政治領袖經常在社交網站撰文,認為對比自己每周撰寫網誌,他們才是真正的鍵盤戰士。

2015年2月21日 星期六

There Is No Deal…Riots & Chaos In Athens And Markets On Monday

又睇下準唔準先 !


kingworldnews.com

In the wake of the mainstream media desperately trying to sell the public that a deal has been reached between the EU and Greece, today one of the top economists in the world told King World News that there is no deal and we may see riots and chaos in Athens and in global markets on Monday.

There Is No Deal
 
Michael Pento:  “Greece owes the EU 320 billion euros and they have no ability to pay it back.  I know, Eric that the (mainstream) media is touting that there has been some kind of deal constructed between Greece and the European Union, but I will tell you there is no deal.

Riots And Chaos In The Streets Of Athens On Monday
 
Regardless of whatever semblance of a deal that was announced and being happily pushed by the (mainstream) media on Friday, there will most likely be chaos in the streets of Athens on Monday, because if the Tsipras-led government and the Syriza Communist Party do agree to austerity, they will be going against the electorate and there will be riots in Greece.

No Deal – Chaos To Erupt In Markets
 
So there is no deal.  Do not believe the media hype.  I think this deal falls apart on Monday and there will be chaos in markets early next week.”

美現致命波旁病毒 男子蜱咬後不治

on.cc東網專訊

【on.cc東網專訊】 美國疾病控制及預防中心(CDC)周五宣布,發現一種新型病毒,並相信該病毒就是導致一名原本健康的50多歲堪薩斯州男子,去年死亡的元凶。
這種病毒稱為「波旁」(Bourbon),是以該死者居住的縣名命名。CDC在聲明中說,波旁病毒為托高土病毒屬(thogotovirus)的一員,而這也是首度有托高土病毒屬病毒在美國導致人類死亡的個案。當局指,托高土病毒屬與歐洲、亞洲和非洲的蜱或蚊子有關,而波旁病毒也可能以相同方式傳播。據悉,該名堪薩斯州患者,生病前遭蜱咬傷多次,醫生在他肩膀發現有吸滿血液的蜱。據發表於CDC《新興傳染病期刊》(Emerging Infectious Diseases)的研究報告,該男病人出現頭痛與發燒症狀。醫護人員使用抗生素治療該病人,但他的狀況惡化,腎臟出現衰竭,且在沒有協助下無法呼吸。他在症狀發作的11天後身亡。這宗病例是在患者對數種其他傳染病呈現陰性反應下,促使CDC實驗室進一步分析血液樣本後才發現。研究人員使用先進的分子檢測技術,最終判定這名男子死於新型病毒。

印緬邊境出現抗藥性瘧原蟲 威脅全球

on.cc東網專訊

【on.cc東網專訊】 科學家在醫學期刊《熱帶疾病版刺胳針》上發表報告說,在印度和緬甸邊境發現抗藥性瘧原蟲,對全球構成威脅。

這種對瘧疾特效藥青蒿素具有抗藥性的瘧原蟲,自從在東南亞地區首次現蹤之後,一直擴散,如今已經進入印緬邊境,專家指這個發展「驚人」,也是一個「重大威脅」。自2000年以來,瘧疾的感染死亡病例減少近半,不過每年仍有大約58萬人死於瘧疾。具有抗藥性的瘧原蟲的出現,可能令多年來的努力付諸東流。目前已經在柬埔寨、老撾、泰國、越南以及緬甸等數個東南亞國家偵測到這種對青蒿素具有抗藥性的瘧原蟲。協助打擊瘧疾傳播的國際慈善組織和研究機構表示,希望國際間能夠伸出援手,盡快找出對策和新的治療藥物,若果具抗藥性瘧原蟲進入衞生條件欠佳的印度鄉村地區,後果不堪設想。

2015年2月20日 星期五

羊年運程:財星臨 神州禍患未退

on.cc東網專訊

【on.cc東網專訊】 在火旺馬年,中國可說是悲喜交集,反貪腐、經濟改革及區域外交等取得成果,中國穩佔全球第一大經濟體的地位;不過,地震、空難卻奪走多人性命。踏入羊年, 玄學家預測,踏入火焚第3年,火勢漸退,加上羊年中國經濟受惠「八白財星」臨北,繼續穩步發展。政治並不和諧,社會爭拗頻仍,有玄學家預言,黑心食物、流 行病毒及地震等問題,羊年將繼續困擾內地,北上港人需多加留意。

以立春八字為中國預測國運的玄學家方海閱指,羊年立春八字為「乙未、戊寅、辛亥、甲午」,八字五行屬金,但金水較弱,火木土較旺,形成財多身弱之局,身弱不 任財,反映中國經濟下行風險增加。為免經濟硬着陸,中央會放水救經濟,令股票市場波動加劇,升停板及跌停板將較過往出現得更頻更密。方海閱又指,在民生方面,羊年立春八字土較重,代表地產、房屋、基建較興旺,加上外圍環境貨幣寬鬆政策,資金氾濫下,大城市的樓價又再攀升,貧富差距進一步擴大。從立春八字看,五行不調和,代表中國政治並不和諧協調,加上羊年三碧是非星入中宮,對社會震盪更大。 而玄學家黃震宇則以值年卦為中國占出「風雷益」的卦象。他解釋,即損上益下,反映高官有機會仍遭嚴打;配合三碧是非星入中宮,顯示反叛、口舌、是非等問題多多,預示高官受到打壓下,同一派系下屬不甘受欺壓而反擊,羊年出現鬥爭的機會甚高,並且有機會爆發內亂或示威。黃震宇進一步分析「風雷益」這卦象時指出,羊年國家政策或有多方面放寬,令市民受惠,或有更多的保障。再加上八白吉星臨北,中國經濟在羊年的發展空間亦會更強,中國在早2、3年開始進行的所有計劃及建設,在羊年會收到明顯的效果,還會有多元化的發展。配合天時地利人和,中國與鄰國關係亦有改善。同 樣可推算出羊年運程的奇門卦象,玄學家雲文子得出「陽五局,甲申旬」的卦象結果,她指出,卦象顯示中央政府在羊年將推行多方面改革,雖然在短期內未必能全 面改革成功,但亦能有效打造一個良好的制度,肅貪倡廉亦甚具阻嚇作用。雲解釋,卦象中出現的「生門帶值符」預示中國經濟穩步發展,房地產市場雖然承受不少 衝擊,但價格繼續企穩,尤其在大城市如北京、上海、廣州及深圳,樓價升勢持續,而2、3線城市住宅售價則無太大波幅;農產品如稻米、小麥、蔬果及棉花等在 羊年亦將豐收,農業副產品銷情理想,木材基建運勢持續向好。雲補充,而卦象中的「伏吟天庭」格局,則反映中國製食品將連番出現問題,安全系數跌至新低;雲南、四川、廣西等地將接二連三發生嚴重的天災如地震、水災等, 災情破壞力強。她指,中日雙方緊張關係稍有改善,不過雙方就島嶼主權的爭持沒有解決,並且中國對釣魚島的實質掌控更牢固。

玄學家蘇民峰則指,中國運勢最盛時間為1984年至2004年,正值七運,過後仍然會行運至2024年。當中以西南區最旺,「04年之後西南區發展得最好, 好似係成都、昆明同拉薩,經濟發展好快,增長甚至勁過北京,但因為啲人睇大城市,先冇睇細城市。」不過,蘇又指,中國經濟增長開始緩和純屬自然定律,「經濟同香港情況一樣,高增長時候已經過咗,製造業又死吓死吓,又唔升又唔跌。」至於中日關係,蘇認為,14年的爭鬥位在東南,故馬年中日關係僵持,「搞嚟搞 去都係釣魚島、南沙。」而羊年的二黑病符星位於東南,「啲國家唔得閒搞咁多嘢,掛住應付大型疾病,爭鬥會少咗。」

湯文亮擺檔 財仔殺到

money18.on.cc

紀惠集團行政總裁湯文亮近日在維園「擺檔賣書」,會各路英雄;果然,有唔少財務公司的人「殺到」,不過,唔使替佢擔心,因為大家旨在「切磋切磋」,絕非恐嚇。

湯文亮話,到維園會他的「財仔」,都擔心緊他們放出去的款項係咪可以收回。原來近年有唔少財仔都是新成立。去年9月,財務公司大約有1,200間;到今年2 月中,就多了110間,增長幅度驚人。而家,這些新進財務公司老闆都震過貓王,唔知放出去的數是否能夠收回。如果新進或者小型財務公司追數,樓市下跌缺口 亦將會被打開。

蘇格蘭銀行開發指紋識別 專家斥不安全

on.cc東網專訊

【on.cc東網專訊】 蘇格蘭皇家銀行及國民西敏銀行(NatWest Bank)近日開發指紋識別功能,讓iPhone 5或以上型號的用戶,只需將手指按在螢幕主鍵,經過核實後便能登入帳戶,使用銀行服務。專家卻炮轟這功能極容易被黑客攻破,危險程度猶如將鎖匙置於門前的地毯下。
用戶事前只需輸入簡單的個人資料,便能啟動這項指紋識別功能,現有約88萬名用戶合乎資格。專家卻稱,罪犯只需獲得電話用戶的高解像度指紋圖片或製作假手指,便可輕易登入。兩間銀行回覆稱,推出功能前已作充分測試功能安全性,對之有信心,又稱指紋識別功能早在美國及其他國家獲廣泛使用。

希臘總理訪中國軍艦 強調特別重視中國投資

on.cc東網專訊

【on.cc東網專訊】 希臘總理齊普拉斯昨日表示,他相信希臘可以成為中國進入歐洲的一個重要的商業大門。

齊普拉斯訪問一艘希臘比雷埃夫斯港的中國軍艦說,歡迎中國在希臘現有的投資,並指特別重視中國在希臘現有的投資,包括中遠集團在比雷埃夫斯港的重要的經營活動。據悉,中國遠洋運輸集團已經在經營管理比雷埃夫斯港的部分碼頭,但齊普拉斯領導的激進左翼政黨主導的政府上台後,卻宣佈暫停這一港口的私有化進程,而對部分國有資產的私有化是希臘接受歐盟和國際貨幣基金組織援助的條件之一。

2015年2月19日 星期四

兩風暴迫近澳洲 民眾儲糧戒備

on.cc東網專訊

【on.cc東網專訊】 澳洲現正面對兩個強勁暴風威脅,其中一個風暴更迅速加強,所影響民眾需尋找可避風的地方。

其中一個3級風暴拉姆正吹向北領地,預計會造成山泥傾瀉,對當地原住民構成威脅。至於另一個風暴馬西亞,在短時間內由2級風暴發展成4級風暴,並正吹向昆士蘭東南部人口眾多的地區。當地氣象部門預計,當風暴接近岸邊,會更發展成5級風暴,將造成山泥傾瀉。當地的醫院已準備好處理風暴中受傷的人,民眾亦湧往超市購買物資,不少商店的貨架已被清空。

羊年運程:羊年政經動盪 病星纏擾香江

on.cc東網專訊

【on.cc東網專訊】 火焚3年,以馬年「火毒」最重,港人馬年在風雨飄搖中度過,踏入火焚第3年,香港命運何去何從?玄學家預測,雖然羊年「火毒」減弱,但港人亦未解困,政治爭拗仍然頻繁,社會不合作運動連連,佔領運動隨時重臨,政府施政舉步維艱。羊年經濟發展進一步放緩,股市波動,容易大上大落。而樓價在上半年仍會上升,住 屋仍是香港當前最嚴峻的難題。最令人擔心的是,羊年「二黑病符星」入東南,有玄學家預言,伊波拉病毒隨時殺入香港!不過玄學家指,只要港人捱過羊年,猴年 便會漸入佳境,可享「黃金十年」。

馬年佔領行動持續2個多月,佔領行動在羊年會否重臨?玄學家周漢明以易經為香港羊年起卦,得到卦象「澤水困」,周解釋,卦象顯示羊年香港社會仍充滿爭拗、是非及口舌之爭。周指,困卦顯示羊年農曆7、8月的社會爭拗甚至暴力事件會較嚴重,若農曆10月、11月未能平息事件,延至農曆12月的破月,則會較棘手, 佔領行動隨時重臨。玄學家方海閱則指,羊年立春八字五行不調和,代表政治並不和諧協調,政局起伏不定,「立春八字有2個『七殺』,代表有抗爭、打鬥、警民衝突,而代表政府嘅官星較弱,意味羊年仍有好多衝擊政府嘅示威遊行或不合作運動發生,政府施政好困難。羊年火都係比較重,要去到猴年同雞年,香港運勢先會好啲。」再加上羊年主訴訟、對抗紛亂的「三碧是非星」入中宮,影響更甚,可能影響周圍附近地區及國家。上 月施政報告出爐,政府準備大興土木,增建公屋及居屋,民生有望改善?方指,羊年立春「土」重,代表地產、房屋、基建雖然大量興建,但遠水救不了近火,加上 外圍環境貨幣寬鬆政策,資金氾濫下,樓價難以回落,市民仍要捱貴租、捱貴樓。

另一玄學家蘇民峰指,羊年的樓價非常關鍵,「呢十幾廿年經濟循環亂晒龍,98 至03年跌,04至09年升,正常10年至15年跌先啱,但10至14就唔跌反升,所以羊年好關鍵,如果樓價再唔跌,市民根本買唔起樓,咁民生點會好。」至 於股市,同樣不被多位玄學家看好。方海閱指,羊年政治的不穩定,有機會造成經濟波動,「股市容易畀人舞至大上大落,容易財來財去,今年宜短炒為上,見好即 收。屬火嘅股會好啲,例如電子、電訊、影視娛樂、化工、化妝品等。」周漢明亦指,卦象顯示金融及股票市場羊年將風高浪急,波動很大。 蘇民峰則表示,羊年股市難有突破,「單數年通常先升後跌,上半年升少少又跌番落去,指數冇咩大突破。」蘇提醒,羊年屬金的股票「排包尾」,黃金、金屬、鋼 材及機器相關的股票被看低一線,「馬年屬水股票排第尾,今年會有進步,所以賭業、銀行、航運、旅遊等相關股會睇高一線。」羊 年「二黑病符星」入東南,意味位處東南的香港、廣東省及東南亞一帶隨時被病毒「攻陷」!蘇民峰指,今年流行性病毒猖獗,以腸胃相關的疾病最為嚴重,「我最 擔心係伊波拉會殺到,因為徵狀都係會屙嘔。」方海閱提醒,「三碧是非星」屬「木」入中宮,代表今年多自然災害,農作物失收或多毒菜問題,同時引致豬、牛、 羊 相繼出現問題,傳染病橫行,市民要提高衛生意識,對抗病菌。

on.cc東網專訊

【on.cc東網專訊】 「香港島嘅話,暢旺地區就係灣仔、銅鑼灣、天后同北角一帶;九龍就係九龍塘;新界區就係上水、粉嶺、古洞一帶。」玄學家方海閱指,羊年「八白財星」飛臨到正北方,北區成為全港流年最旺的地區,經濟發展有優勢,該區的食肆、店舖生意相信會較興旺。

而另一玄學家蘇民峰指,2004年至2024年間旺西南有水的地區,故港島西及九龍西一帶的樓價在20年間升幅凌厲,而受惠港島線的開通,港島西區發展將更為強勁,「因為買樓唔係買完1年就會轉第2度,所以會長遠啲去睇。04年開始見到香港西、九龍西都升,依家堅尼地城2萬幾蚊1呎,好勁。」至 於流年當旺行業花落誰家?方海閱指,以立春當日計,八字五行火較旺,羊年當旺的行業仍是屬火的行業,如電子、電訊、影視娛樂、化工、化妝品等。立春日五行 中,金、水較弱,屬金的金融、股票、外匯、黃金、鋼材,以及屬水的飲食、酒店、航空、物流及零售行業,或會有機會走下坡。

money18.on.cc

踏入羊年,相信市民對運勢更加關注。李丞責師傅表示,在地理位置來看,香港的水勢由西北入而東南偏南出,在玄學風水上,水為財,羊年則正正代表出水位,加上本港過往數十年中的羊年皆有不穩定發展,包括79年大股災、03年沙士等,故並不看好羊年本港的整體經濟發展,市民不論尋找發展機會或投資皆需看清形 勢,小心為上。

李丞責稱,在各行業流年運程方面,現時香港正行「艮土八運」,地產、醫療、礦藏、保險、資訊、保育及養生等皆為當旺發展的大形勢,不同行業只要牽涉到相關項目,皆會獲得較佳發展。

至於投資方面,李丞責稱,羊年乃出水年份,投資宜「見危後搵機」,先看清形勢,深思熟慮後才可出擊。在星象上來看,來年將會出現2次日全食,分別於新曆4月 4日及9月28日出現,而此現象勢必對金融經濟及投資意欲有所影響,故在日全食前後不宜作大投資,特別是在年尾,即九月的日全食發生後,本港股市有機會出 現大股災,故投資者在相關時段投資應三思而行。

另麥玲玲師傅稱,羊年投資者應理智分析大市,避免受「羊群心理」影響,造成損失。

麥玲玲提醒,犯太歲的讀者今年應該採取保守的投資態度,屬馬的市民則會容易有投資失誤,羊年更加應該小心。

The investing golden age may be over: Robert Shiller

西方人依家先來說儲錢, 是否太遲了 ?
佢地又點及中國人, 由小已灌輸慳錢的概念 ?

finance.yahoo.com

The American economy is changing and we may be overcompensating. That’s one takeaway from Yahoo Finance’s latest discussion with Nobel Prize winning economist, and Yale University professor, Robert Shiller.

In the latest edition of his book, “Irrational Exuberance,” Shiller explains that people may need to move away from the thought that the economy will go back to how it was pre-crisis. “A lot of people are holding on to old facts, old presumptions,” he said.


That has a big impact in how we spend and how we save. It also impacts how we work. “People today are afraid of new technology. They don’t know where it’s going. Computers are replacing jobs all over the place – where will we be in 30, 50 or 100 years?” he said. The end result of this is that people are less willing to take risks at work, thinking instead that if they take bland, less specialized jobs, they’re less likely to be replaced.

“One approach is, ‘I’m going to take the blandest most general career because I’m afraid. I’m not going to build up my human capital because it might be obsolete.’” Shiller said. “That is maybe a rational response to the situation but I think it leaves the economy in a bad state.”

When people think like this they end up in business school trying to get a job in management, since people assume no one will fire managers. “We have too many MBAs. And I teach MBAs somewhat,” said Shiller. “They’ll always need managers, but it’s not good. I think people need to be more risk takers in their careers for the good of society,” he added.

One area where Shiller doesn’t think people should be taking risks is with savings. He says one big misconception in America is that we should all be saving 5% of our incomes. The reason? Interest rates are near zero so yields on treasuries are essentially zero. On the equity side, Shiller doesn’t believe conventional wisdom that the stock market returns 10% a year still holds true. “This is not the golden age for investing and we shouldn’t assume that it’s going to be as it always was,” he said. Plus American stocks may be expensive buys for the average investor.

Related: Why Robert Shiller likes Europe more than the U.S.
So going with the idea that our investment assumptions are no longer true, many Americans are essentially saving 5% a year for 40 years and not necessarily earning any return. Add to that the fact that improvements in medicine have us living much longer post-retirment and it’s feasible that we may be living another 40 on just the principle of our savings. That means we're going to be living on 5% of our current income in retirement. Not good.

“The first solution for an individual is to save more,” said Shiller. In fact, he advises his students to continue living like students even after they’ve entered the real world in order to get used to a high rate of savings. But he knows that that’s not always practical, nor is it good for the economy: “That’s advice which I give to individuals thinking that they aren’t going to take it. If everybody saved more, then we’d have a problem.”

Shiller is referring to the idea that if everyone saved more, they wouldn’t be spending money on discretionary items and the U.S. economy is heavily dependent on consumer spending.

The personal savings rate in this country is hovering below 5% and it has never been more important for Americans to save for retirement. Fewer than 20% of American firms are now offering defined benefit and retirement plans for employees, no wonder some estimates say we’re $7 trillion short of the savings we need to retire.

So Shiller’s advice is to save more… but he knows you probably won’t listen to that advice.

After Global Financial Collapse, US to Back New Global Currency With Massive Secret Gold Reserves!

www.silverdoctors.com

If Marshall Swing is correct, the country that emerges from the coming global financial collapse & introduces a new gold backed currency might not be who you think…

Submitted by Marshall Swing: 

I enjoy being ahead of the game.  Buy low, sell high – they call it or short high cover low…

All those who work diligently to study what is going on around them get to know or suspect what is going to happen before it happens.

3 report’s ago Doc’s headline he gives my article reads this:

“Marshall Swing: US Gov’t Stockpiling Oil to Withstand Complete Systemic Collapse in Fall 2015?”

In that article, I detail some I detail some U.S. government and commercial oil storage numbers as a result of research after discussions with Steve St. Angelo (SRSrocco) and then last week we see this headline in King World News Art Cashin interview:

“DANGER: One Of The Most Heavily Watched Indicators In The World Just Hit An 80-Year High!”
http://kingworldnews.com/danger-one-heavily-watched-indicators-world-just-hit-80-year-high/

A key quote in that article is:

“The International Energy Agency (IEA) released their monthly report today and warned that excess oil supplies will raise global storage to a record 2.83 billion barrels by the end of June. The IEA warning means lower prices ahead but they do expect the supply/demand ratio to be back in balance by the end of 2015. Currently production is 1.5 mbpd over demand and that oil has to be stored somewhere.”

Back in balance by the end of 2015?

Hmmm, no mention of the economic collapse coming round about September 2015.  Guess the boys at KWN do not want to go out on a limb? (Just kidding!)
When we get to September and beyond, remember I told readers here at SD there was an economic crash coming and when it was coming, AND the details of what it is all about – long before anyone else in the economic sector started predicting a 2015 collapse, except Martin Armstrong and his data analysis, even before Jonathan Cahn and Mark Biltz were famously out in print and interviews saying they suspect it will be so based on prophecies and observances of Shemitah.

But, back to oil for a minute…
My friend Steve St. Angelo (SRSrocco) wrote a very good price this week on EROI and I fail to understand why it only gets what appears to be limited view reads.  That article is extremely important to understand the pressures on the U.S. oil industry and one sure aspect of why the U.S. is in such a dire straight energy wise and the only thing holding the U.S. government and economy up IS the fact of its stranglehold on the world economic scene via paper fiat Breton Woods based single currency trade denominated in U.S. toilet paper.
Read, people, read and read it slowly!
http://www.silverdoctors.com/u-s-empire-in-serious-trouble-due-to-the-worst-oil-productivity-in-the-world/
If you missed that article, you are missing key insight into the puzzle of why all this is going to end soon.

Here is my favorite quote from it:
“If it wasn’t for the United States Triple “A” Credit Card Rating, its economy would have collapsed years ago.  Why?  It’s low 4,577 barrels per day of oil per drilling rig is not a sustainable EROI model.  Basically, the U.S. economy could not sustain itself on its own energy production without exploiting the world by exchanging PAPER GARBAGE TREASURIES for real goods and services.

The day is approaching when the producers of the world such as the BRICS countries will no longer take paper IOU’s for goods and services.  The falling EROI is the key fundamental factor that shows the U.S. Empire is indeed in serious trouble.”

The United States took quick action to fill up its storage tanks will cheap oil and countries around the world are doing the same but when everything is full up there is a major problem on the production side of nowhere to go, nowhere to run, nowhere to hide.  And the futures and options on oil are bets based on the production side (far more so than gold and silver) and the bottom will drop out once the game of chicken is realized in the market.  Will OPEC slow production in June/July timeframe to stem the bottom dropping out?  Can they even accomplish that?

Who blinks first?

Then there is gold…

Just look at the headlines on SD today, Monday, and what they are saying is massive gold buying by Central Banks, massive shipments to Shanghai, and gold is a financial nuclear weapon.  Anybody who thinks the BRICS just want to get along with the West are dreaming.

All these countries are building up their gold stores for a purpose not just a reason of maintaining store of value.

Their goal is to flip the switch, at some unknown point, and make the rest of the world pay in physical gold for goods and services.  They want honesty in the world’s markets and the ONLY WAY to get it is to have a hard asset based world economy that credits countries for doing the right and honest thing and not merely being pawns in the West’s economic fiat paper enslavement.

Can you hear Moses saying “LET MY PEOPLE GO”?
He is shouting IT!!!

The bible speaks of just weights and measures and even people who do not believe in God BELIEVE in the wisdom in these Laws:
Leviticus 19:35-36 (NKJV)
35 ‘You shall do no injustice in judgment, in measurement of length, weight, or volume. 36 You shall have honest scales, honest weights, an honest ephah, and an honest hin: I am YHVH (the Lord) your God, who brought you out of the land of Egypt.
Deuteronomy 25:13-16 (NKJV)
13 “You shall not have in your bag differing weights, a heavy and a light. 14 You shall not have in your house differing measures, a large and a small. 15 You shall have a perfect and just weight, a perfect and just measure, that your days may be lengthened in the land which the Lord your God is giving you.16 For all who do such things, all who behave unrighteously, are an abomination to YHVH (the Lord) your God.
Proverbs 20:10 New King James Version (NKJV)
10 Diverse weights and diverse measures, They are both alike, an abomination to YHVH (the Lord).

The entire world, outside of the West knows well the unfair games the Federal Reserve plays at the behest of the elite and how they manipulate currencies and commodity prices so they maintain the slave relationship and indebt the nations with endless paper fiat they do not hesitate a moment to devalue, and in turn rape the natural resources of wealthy hard asset countries at WALMART prices.
See my favorite Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index below, which is a composite against a range of currencies.
What the West has done to the countries of the world, however, is institute a fake, paper fiat currency foundation that is meaningless and regularly causes immense currency wars throughout the SLAVE WORLD.  All you have to do is read the financial news these days and countries all over the world are devaluing the currencies in order to hope to compete economically and maintain a semblance of economic order and not go the Zimbabwe route or the loss of economy stagnation route like Japan.

At the moment they think they can survive on it, a Russia, a China, a Saudi Arabia, or an India is going to require physical gold and/or silver and other hard assets as payment for certain goods and/or services and because of their integral role in the world’s economy they will be able to demand it and get it.
This will cause immense upheaval in the markets but the end is not quite yet.
It leads to the worldwide economic crash, which is completely planned and scheduled and the eventual resolution of that crash is a single world governmental structure and completely accepted one world currency backed with gold and possibly silver hard assets.

The real question is how long will the West allow the world to go on in chaos before they resolve the civil disobedience and death around the world because people do not have food and goods, and institute the global economy with the gold I suspect the U.S. does indeed hold secretly in Hawaii via “Yamashita’s Gold” ? (read Gold Warriors) and confirmed by Karen Hudes, very unexpectedly and almost without reason.

I find it easy to step back from personal wants and needs and look at the world situation, all that is developing, and see it leads right into Daniel’s 70th Week on September 23,2015 just as the prophecies say the world ends up there in the bok of Revelation.  It is just as easy for me when I reviewed all the data analysis and mathematical modeling on gold and silver futures and options and could see 3 years ago the trend was to crash those commodities even when far more well known analysts were saying they were going to rise.
Those analysts are good analysts, don’t get me wrong, but they sometimes lack the ability to step out of the box and see the whole big picture.
And when you step outside and see Islamic State beheading dozens of Christians on beaches and letting their blood run into the ocean of the Mediterranean, you know the end is near.  When you read the prophecy that indicates a generation would not pass in Israel once they became a nation again, then all things would be fulfilled, you know the end is near because a generation in Israel today is 81 years and 1948+81=2029.  But we are not going to make it in this condition until 2029 as I believe that the final Week of Daniel begins on September 23, 2015 and concludes in the Fall of 2022.

That’s my take on it, yes, that is what I believe is going to happen.
I have immense evidence to declare such a thing and I will reveal much more of that evidence soon.

But for now, back to gold and silver!

In silver, remember this statement from my report last week?
Commercials picked up 5,099 new longs into declining price (hint, hint)

Well, those silver Commericals are still holding those longs at the end of the COT Week and may still be holding them as we speak as price has drifted back to the same point as the end of the previous COT, despite price having dropped significantly in between.  Those longs are cards in the hands of a very skillful poker player and when you read my report you begin to understand what they do and no other analyst tells you these things.  And I don’t charge a penny for it.
Now, do they intend to hold them as an anchor for price at this level or let price rise so they can turn a quick profit with their typical short covering raids?
In the price decline and the aftermath Friday of COT Week, we see the usual Large Speculators forced out of 2,132 longs and grabbing 1,577 shorts thinking a huge crash was imminent.  It did not happen for them and their shorts have been decimated to the upside as we will see in the next COT and the one after that.  The Commercials did the obvious short covering raid with a total 3,367 shorts covered.  Some small Speculators picked up some longs in there, hopefully around the $16.54 price low and they are well into the money now.  Since the end of COT Week, silver has seen a steady increase in total open interest so that is very good for those Small Spec longs.  Looking at the disaggregated COT we see a few longs picked up by the Swap Dealer and Managed Money but nothing significant to indicate future price direction.

Going to gold numbers we see a total rape, pillage, and sack of the Large Speculators with those guys forced out of 29,970 longs (almost 3 million long ounces) and the Commercials in an outright raid covering 29,154 shorts!!
Could Congress be more divided along party lines?  NO.

In disaggregated gold, we see both Commercial Houses completely and totally congruent in the short covering raid, equal partners in crime massacring unsuspecting Speculators, their wives, and their children.  They took no prisoners! (Wives and children are the multitude of options as well as the other side of the Lake (Atlantic) bets on gold and silver naked derivatives of longs and shorts in England’s casino games).
At the bottom of bottoms we see the Swap Dealers emerge with 6,189 new longs and after the COT Week there is another short covering raid to even lower prices (and I suspect more longs for the Commercials) so I am going to step out on the plank, blindfolded and predict price may go up a little more than we see now, at 1PM on Monday because these Commercials in gold are doing the very same thing the Commercials in silver did previously!  They are incognito congruent with only a little time separating their paper metal naked longs!

The 2 Years Silver Bottoms is still intact and safe…

And the Sun still revolves around the Earth: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yDWyRjFnYkw

https://www.youtube.com/user/MalcolmBowden

Stay thirsty for physical gold and silver at these ridiculously low prices!

And still reporting from the Wilderness of Southern Illinois,

Marshall
 

IAEA建議 日本把福島放射性污水排大海

on.cc東網專訊

【on.cc東網專訊】 國際原子能機構(IAEA)調查團,檢查日本東京電力福島第一核電站反應堆報廢工程序,周二向日本經濟產業副大臣高木陽介提交報告草案。報告指,鑑於核電站內的放射性污水不斷增加,建議將放射性污水排入大海,並形容是持續對策。

IAEA調查團團長倫蒂霍在東京會見記者時稱,為降低污水造成的風險,在管理而言,將污水排到大海有助提高整體安全性。他強調,雖然污水經過淨化後,仍殘留放射性物質氚但對人體的影響極微。倫蒂霍續稱,期望日本政府和東電,商討包括將污水排入大海等的各種對策。該次是IAEA調查團,第3次到日本驗證福島第一核電站的反應堆報廢程序。調查團將於3月底發表正式報告。

澳洲數百萬蝗蟲大軍傾巢而出 進擊牧場農地

on.cc東網專訊

【on.cc東網專訊】 澳洲昆士蘭省早前遭遇旱災,令當地農民苦不堪言,惟近日恢復降雨,農民鬆一口氣之際,該省中、西和北部卻遭蝗蟲大軍侵襲,數百萬隻黃翼蝗蟲殺入農田,破壞農作物,又將草地夷為平地,情況嚴峻。
該省東部查特斯塔一個牧牛場的主人布雷登形容,蝗蟲數目多不勝數,一周在牧牛場方圓半公里內發現的蝗蟲群,竟然多達12個之多。他又形容這批蝗蟲大軍窮兇極惡,吃草有如「鏟草機」,牧牛場至今有數公頃的草地被毀,損失慘重。查特斯塔市長亦指,蝗蟲可能已經開始繁殖後代,並將蛋埋在地下,只要天氣許可,數百萬隻蝗蟲可能不日就會孵化,令當地禍患無窮。

India Lifts Ban On Bank Gold Imports: Gold Can Again Be Used As Loan Collateral

www.zerohedge.com

One week ago we reported that central bank purchases of gold in 2014 were the second highest in the past 50 years, driven by purchases out of Iraq, Kazakhstan and - most of all - Russia, with no offsetting selling. But what about other more conventional sources of demand? Take jewelry, which while very strong in the beginning of the century, dropped off after the Great Financial Crisis, and then tumbled again after India imposed numerous restrictions on gold imports, which however merely forced the local population to find novel ways of smuggling gold into the country.

This is what the WGC had to say about gold jewelry demand in 2014.

Having suffered weak year-on-year comparisons for much of 2014, jewellery demand rallied to a strong finish, reaching 575t in the fourth quarter – 1% higher than Q4 2013. The sector was buoyed by good festival- and wedding-related demand in India, as well as by the seasonal holiday effect in the US and UK. Global annual jewellery demand of 2,152.9t, although down 10% year-on-year, was above the five-year average by a comfortable 5% margin. 2014 was a standout year for Indian jewellery. Demand reached a record 662.1t, topping the previous year’s total by 8%. This in spite of government measures designed to restrict gold imports being in place for much of the year. Wedding- and festival-related purchases drove robust demand of 179.1t in the fourth quarter, up 19% over Q4 2013. Indeed, the second half of the year was the strongest H2 in our data series (from 2000), up 37% on H2 2013.

US jewellery demand was again notable for its improving trend: Q4 was the seventh consecutive quarter of year-on-year growth and the strongest fourth quarter since 2009. Similarly, 2014 full year demand of 132.4t was the highest for five years. That being said, it clearly has to be acknowledged that the market remains far  below pre-crisis levels of jewellery demand, which between 2000 and 2006 averaged 360t per year.

In considering jewellery demand, it is interesting to look at the contribution that the sector has made over recent years to the accumulation of above-ground stocks. Jewellery is by far the largest component of above-ground stocks of gold – accounting for almost half of the 177,200t of gold estimated to be held by private owners and central banks. Jewellery consumption less recycling provides a fairly good proxy for net demand (as the vast majority of recycled gold will be old jewellery). In years gone by net jewellery demand regularly added as much as 2,000-2,500t per year to above-ground stocks. This plunged to less than 100t during the depths of the global financial crisis as distress selling of gold skyrocketed in tandem with a slump in jewellery demand.

The last two years have seen net jewellery demand recover to exceed 1,000t. This is partly due to a firming of jewellery demand as the world has emerged from the crisis. But by far the greater impact comes from the recycling sector and the sharp reduction in the volumes of gold being sold back onto the market. Above-ground stocks of jewellery should continue accumulating at a similar rate as we expect recycling to remain low in 2015, counterbalancing the recent growth in mine production.

In short, even with extended draconian measures created by India to prevent capital account outflows as a result of uncontrolled gold imports (which still take place only "under the table"), a whopping 1000 tons of gold ended up in the form of gold trinkets in 2014 mostly in India, and to a lesser extend in China.
All of that is about to change: earlier today India's Economic Times reported that the RBI, surely facilitated by the drop in oil prices - a key import for India - has finally lifted its ban on imports of gold coins and medallions by banks and trading houses.  The RBI in a notification also said banks are permitted to import gold on consignment basis. Domestic sales will be, however, permitted against upfront payment only.

"While the import of gold coins and medallions will no longer be prohibited, pending further review, the restrictions on banks in selling gold coins and medallions are not being removed," it said.

The RBI and the government have been receiving requests for clarification on some of operational aspects of guidelines. Aiming to tame the then widening current account deficit (CAD), the central bank in August 2013 had prohibited imports of gold coins and medallions besides restricting inbound shipments of the metal.

Under the 80:20 scheme, which was withdrawn on November 28 last year, gold imports were linked with its exports.

The notification further said the obligation to export under the scheme will continue to apply in respect of unutilised gold imported before November 28, 2014.

"Banks are free to grant gold metal loans," it said, adding that Star and Premier Trading Houses (STH/PTH) can import the metal as per entitlement without any end use restrictions.

And it's not just jewelry: per the RBI announcement:

"Nominated banks are now permitted to import gold on consignment basis. All sale of gold domestically will, however, be against upfront payments. Banks are free to grant gold metal loans."
Why is that important? Because as we wrote in January 2013 in "Don't Show Bernanke This Chart Of Gold Loans In India", before the import ban, gold in India was most certainly money, and the amount of gold loans being created in India was simply exponential.

However, since the importing of gold and its reuse as a money-equivalent collateral meant even more undesired capital outflows, the RBI was forced to halt the practice. Until now.
What all of the above simply means is that the government, tired of fighting a losing war with gold smugglers, has opened up one more avenue by which gold can enter the country on an official, and taxable basis, and as a result physical gold will now resume flowing into India officially, a process which depending on how much gold is being mind out of the ground could mean a rapid depletion of the net available gold in any one period.
It also means that going forward, India's true gold demand will finally be on the books, as banks find numerous loopholes to pass on the imported gold to end consumers - either in physical or loan form - only this time with the total tonnage once again being officially represented, as was the case in previous years.
By way of example, gold imports surged by 8.13% Y/Y to $1.55 billion in January after the initial RBI restrictions were eased. Expect this number to spike that much more in the coming months as banks rush to reload on physical, especially with paper gold prices determined mostly by ETFs and manipulated by central banks, continue to make purchases (in most currencies, and certainly the dollar) increasingly more attractive, just as the CEO of Rosneft explained is happening to oil right now.

Finally, for those who are unaware, India is considered the largest importer of gold - a title it shares on again, off again with China, the bulk of whose gold imports are also undocumented as they end up almost exclusively in some bonded warehouse where the gold is used as (infinitely) rehypothecated collateral for Commodity Funding Deals and/or in the vault of the PBOC.