2025年4月21日 星期一
2017年1月28日 星期六
Will there be Accountability in 2017
全世界的戰爭都是為咗錢銀利益 !
financearmageddon.blogspot.hkLook into the Military Industrial Complex (MIC). Most of Congress, every president, and every Sec of State is beholden to MIC. MIC controls the Gov from behind the scenes in conjunction with the Federal Reserve Bank. The countries - Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, Egypt, Libya, Syria, & Ukraine were attacked because they borrowed from BRICS instead of IMF. Let the truth be known for why they were really attacked by the US State Dept CIA & Britain MI-6. Who can stop these 2 Black Ops groups?
2016年9月4日 星期日
要財務自由 仲長線投資？傻的嗎？！
富爸爸講的野還是啱的 !
on.cc東網專訊【on.cc東網專訊】 1997年初版發行的投資理財經典書《富爸爸‧窮爸爸》，全球銷量超過3,000萬冊，作者清崎（Robert Kiyosaki）創造提倡「財務自由」，即不用上班卻能有穩定生活，教人投資「被動收入」，如房地產(收租)、股票(收股息)、債券(收利息)。之不過 2012年時，他自己旗下公司卻申請破產！
今年69歲的清崎，最近與外國傳媒搞Live講理財時，他竟然說了句：「今時今日還長線投資？傻的嗎？」他是否「今日的我打倒昨日的我」？以下是他今時對投資的看法。實情如何？你來決定。
想知更多投資智慧，記得Click入http://money18.on.cc/wealth，領悟致富的關鍵！
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●如何致富？
【清崎】你需要明白，有錢人從來不會為「錢」而工作，很多人就是不明瞭這點。如果你是靠讀書畢業找份工作、儲錢、然後買股票，你將會成為輸家。有錢人不為「錢」工作，而是為了「資產」而工作。銀紙是印出來的，我們要的是資產。
●預計2016年出現史上最大全球股災？
【清崎】我們已經站在懸崖邊，是前所未有的險境。面對目前負利率的年代，你還存錢進銀行？你傻的嗎！
●應長線投資股票嗎？
【清崎】股價與現實根本毫無關係，若你仍相信買股票作長線投資，你瘋的嗎。
●目前應投資甚麼？
【清 崎】你要找你自己的答案。我自己愛黃金，在很低價時已買入。有人說金價會升到每安士一萬美元，亦有人看跌至每安士250美元，現實就在這兩者之間。銀幣其 實有三面：公、字、或對沖，你就是要站在銀幣邊緣，同時留意着公、字兩邊。我視黃金為對沖工具，而不是投資工具。我看美元幾年內會偏軟，持黃金較保險。
●美國大選會怎樣影響經濟？
【清崎】控制全球經濟的，不是一個總統，而是美國聯儲局和眾多銀行家。老實說，誰當選總統對經濟也不會有甚麼分別。不過特朗普是我朋友，我會投他一票。
●投資房產又怎樣？
【清崎】房產是長期的投資，我不理會樓市升或跌，我的目標是找「抵買」的，找別人看不見的機會。我愛買住宅實樓，但不會投資房產基金(REITs)或房產證券。緊記，買樓實際要看的是負債、稅務與法律，所以我會選這些方面對投資者有利的地區來置業。
●年輕人初投身職場要注意甚麼？
【清崎】別只向錢看、找高收入工作，這跟妓女賣身沒有分別。我會這樣問年輕人：「不計錢的話你會做甚麼？如果你甚麼都可以做，那就想想有甚麼你想去解決？然後便找辦法去解決。」
●打工vs創業
【清崎】每個人都是天生的創業家，我從沒見過小孩對錢無興趣，只是制度把人的創業心打垮，只為份糧而賣身。現今教育只培育出「員工」，而欠缺「創業家」，要有人創業，才可創造更多就業機會。
●給年輕人的忠告
【清崎】學習「數字」，就是會計、簿記這些。很多人擁有高學歷，但對金融財經一竅不通，要致富，必先懂得「數字」。還有，找個師傅或導師、找個榜樣，從他們身上學習，無論你多聰明，總有值得你學習的對象，這是人生的關鍵。
2016年4月4日 星期一
Robert Kiyosaki And Harry Dent Warn That Financial Armageddon Is Imminent
富爸爸的書好多人都睇過, 而俾佢在投資路上影響的人都唔少, 不過選釋去信某百萬 blogger 的人多過信佢, 真是非解 ! 可能好多人還是在相信世上有神話吧 !
www.silverdoctors.comSubmitted by Michael Snyder:
There will be… and I will stake my entire reputation on this… we are going to see the biggest global bubble burst in history in the next four years…
There’s only one way out of this bubble and that is for it to burst… all this stuff is going to reset back to where it should be without all this endless debt, endless printed money, stimulus and zero interest rate policy.
And of course he is far from alone. Without a doubt, we are currently in the terminal phases of the greatest financial bubble the world has ever known, and it is exceedingly difficult to see any way that it will not end very, very badly.
The Dow, I’m projecting, will hit 5,500 to 6,000 by late 2017… just in the next year and a half or so.
That’ll be most of the damage… then it will rally and there’ll be some aftershocks into 2020… my four cycles point down into early 2020 and then they start one after the other to turn up… I think the worst will be over by 2020, but the worst of that will be by the end of 2017.
If that does happen, it will be a far worse crash than what we experienced back in 2008, and the economic consequences will be absolutely terrifying.
Another highly respected financial expert that is making similar claims is Robert Kiyosaki. My wife is a big fan of his books, and I have always held him in high regard.
But what I didn’t realize is that he had actually predicted that there would be a major financial crash all the way back in 2002…
Fourteen years ago, the author of a series of popular personal-finance books predicted that 2016 would bring about the worst market crash in history, damaging the financial dreams of millions of baby boomers just as they started to depend on that money to fund retirement.I agree with Kiyosaki that one way that investors can shield their wealth is by getting gold and silver. In a recent article, I explained exactly why I believe that silver in particular is ridiculously undervalued right now.
Broader U.S. stock markets are recovering from the worst 10-day start to a year on record. But Robert Kiyosaki — who made that 2016 forecast in the 2002 book “Rich Dad’s Prophecy” — says the meltdown is under way, and there’s little investors can do but buy gold or silver and hope the Federal Reserve slows the slide.
Kiyosaki also believes that the coming crash could be delayed a bit if the Federal Reserve decided to embark on another round of quantitative easing. But even if that happens, Kiyosaki is absolutely convinced that eventually “it’s all going to come down”…
Kiyosaki told MarketWatch that the combination of demographics and global economic weakness makes the next crash inevitable — but the Fed could stave it off with another round of quantitative easing, which might stimulate the economy.
The Fed turned more dovish at its March meeting, with the central bank penciling in fewer interest-rate hikes this year than were previously part of its implied framework. The Fed signaled those hikes would happen more slowly than had been anticipated earlier, owing to a weak global economic environment and a volatile stock market.
“The big question [whether] we do ‘QE4,’” said Kiyosaki. “If we do, the stock market will come roaring back, but it’s not rocket science. If we stop printing money, it crashes; if we print money, it goes up. But, eventually, it’s all going to come down.”
Another voice that I have come to respect is Jim Rickards. He is not quite as apocalyptic as Kiyosaki or Dent, but without a doubt he is deeply concerned about where the global economy is headed…
Global growth is slowing both because of weakness in developed economies like Europe and Japan, and weakness in some of the emerging markets champions such as China, Brazil and Russia. The limits of monetary policy have been reached.
The evidence is now clear that negative interest rates don’t stimulate spending; they are only good for devaluation in the ongoing currency wars. World trade is shrinking; a rare phenomenon usually associated with recession or depression.
And he is exactly right. The economic downturn that we are witnessing is truly global in scope. Brazil has plunged into an economic depression, the Italian banking system is in the process of completely melting down, and Japan has implemented negative interest rates in a desperate attempt to keep their Ponzi scheme going but it really isn’t working. In fact, Japanese industrial production just crashed by the most that we have seen since the tsunami of 2011.
Here in the United States, investors are generally feeling pretty good right now because stocks have rebounded substantially in recent weeks. However, Rickards is warning that this rebound is very temporary…
Stocks are clearly in a bubble. The stock market is ignoring the strong dollar, which in turn hurts exports and devalues overseas earnings. It is also ignoring declining corporate earnings,imminent defaults in the energy sector, and declining global growth in general.
Never mind. As long as money is cheap and leverage is plentiful, there’s no reason not to bid up stock prices, and wait for the greater fool to bid them up some more.
There is so much that we could learn from all these three men.
Sadly, just like we saw in 2008, most Americans are ignoring the warnings.
The mainstream media has conditioned the public to trust them, and right now the mainstream media is insisting that everything is going to be just fine.
So will everything be just fine as the months roll along?
AGXIIK says:
It looks like Kiyosaki and Dent have been getting my emails. As for the 4 years? Harry! This year! Wake up!.What they don’t discuss or note is that far more than the Average Joes and Janes, it’ll be the public pension plans, invested to the gunnels with toxic HY garbage, IPO No-Go’s with zero liquidity and zero value and trillions in BBB- with negative outlook bonds and the riskiest of stocks.
They don’t cover the private pensions, invested with a tad more expertise, but filled with much of the same garbage plus CDOs, subprime bonds and other sludge as they struggle for yield.
What they also do not cover the the fact that every central bank is equally filled with garbage of the worst sort along with speculative stocks that will drop by 50-75% within months Central banks are all leveraged 95 to 1 or higher. The only hope the TBTF and CBs have is they can save themselves with bail-ins and confiscation of financial assets like retirement plans.
When the dam holding back this continent-sized cess pool of toilet paper and digestive track byproducts breaks, it will destroy every institution, every bank, every pension plan and every hope and dream every person on this planet who still have a scintilla of faith in the system. You can either believe in the official (offal) party line and stand in line for a soup bowl of hope. Ir you can break with the official Matrix central MOPE and GOTS!
The crunch will represent a ‘Noah and his ark’ level of devastation. Any one on level ground will be swept away in the deluge. I guess I’ll say it, and it should not need to be said again but if you have a stack you might be able to stand on top of it to keep your head above water Or something to that effect.
Kiyasaki has been going ‘all in’ into physical precious metals for 3 years I doubt if he complains he bought silver at $33 or gold at $1,500.
2013年4月23日 星期二
火燒《富爸爸財務自由之路》投資失利 小巴司機跳樓亡
富爸爸無教人炒賣呀, 富爸爸只叫人買資產收取現金流呀 !
所以選錯投資, 可以輸得好慘 !
蘋果日報
【本報訊】一名小巴司機疑投資失利，昨日在黃大仙鳳德邨住所梯間，焚燒投資理財書籍《富爸爸財務自由之路》、財經雜誌及投資單據掟落街後，再攀越欄河從34樓躍下當場慘死。警方未有發現遺書。
曾懷疑有幻聽
死者姓張（38歲），未婚，獨居鳳德邨碧鳳樓一單位，父母則住在沙田顯徑邨，警方事後聯絡其家人到場助查。家人稱事主並無欠債，但近月曾告知父親懷疑自己 有幻聽。消息稱，事主一向有投資股票，從現場看到他死前燒爛掟落街的股票單據顯示，他12年前已投資股票，在股海浮沉多年，經歷過金融風暴。事發昨日下午3時許，事主被發現從碧鳳樓高處飛墮一樓簷篷，當場頭爆肢折慘死，其間有一批燒着的紙張緊隨其後，飛散落大廈對開公園旁邊，據住在12樓的黃同學稱，突聞墮物巨響，探窗查看，發現有燒着的紙張從高處飄下，。
警員及救護員接報到場，證實該男子已死去，遺在公園旁的一批被燒過的紙張，包括一本投資理財書籍《富爸爸財務自由之路》的多張被撕爛的書頁，另有一頁財經雜誌、一張超速駕駛告票及一張01年以股價0.98元購買8,000股的旭日企業（393）的單據。
34樓梯間躍下
警員在場調查時發現事主雙手有燒過傷痕。警員事後聯絡事主家人到場調查，相信事主從34樓梯間跳下，並估計他墮樓前曾焚燒《富爸爸財務自由之路》書籍、雜 誌、告票與單據，然後雙手捧着燃燒的紙張攀欄墮樓斃命。《富爸爸財務自由之路》是日裔美國人羅勃特．T．清崎所撰寫的投資理財系列叢書，暢銷全球。
2011年11月30日 星期三
Kiyosaki 富爸爸 : I dont like Equities
Yeah, I think so. I’m not a real equities guy because I don’t like equities. I’m a private investor. In other words, I buy my own apartment houses. I buy my own oil wells. I drill my own wells. I don’t like the public markets because they’re manipulated. But, anyway, when I watch people trying to guess the stock market, you better know it’s manipulated. If you’re not into manipulation, then maybe you shouldn’t be in it. So, I think that’s really the thing. And I predict that the bottom of the stock market, a big run off, will probably be 2016, 2017. It’ll clean out all the baby boomers who are in it and then it’ll be time that gold will go through the roof, silver will go through the roof and it’ll be time to exit gold and silver around 2018. That’s my prediction. There’s definitely no fundamentals to what I say. I just – that’s the way I see it going, so for right now, I’m just kind of watching and seeing how it tracks, but so far, I’ve been right on. And the reason I think the stock market hasn’t seen this bottom yet is because all over the world, there’s a group of people called baby boomers, that’s with the stock market like they do in the European market.
2011年11月28日 星期一
Kiyosaki 富爸爸說 : I am a Silver bug
I’m a silver bug, so one year ago, I told my friends, this is when silver was $17.00, I said, “You better buy now, ‘cause you’re never gonna see it again.” So, $17.00 was the magic number to me. And so, they really missed it. Now, as far as above $50.00, I would say that’s probably a given and they don’t understand why they’re getting into this stuff. But, the reason they’re getting into it is because, like, our government’s ripping ‘em off, but they would rather have, you know, a government we trust. And, you know, what I’m sick of right now, personally, is I turn on Fox and I watch the news and all it is is these political shows talking as if these politicians, or whoever’s elected or not elected next year, is gonna make a difference. And they’re talking about taxing the rich. You know, what – that’s not gonna make any difference. And they keep talking about how these regulations impede entrepreneurs. Well, nothing impedes entrepreneurs. So, you know, really, what it is is the individual person really does have very little financial education. And so, right now, this market’s crushing ‘em and I’m afraid if they do nothing, they will be crushed. I have a lot of friends and family who are in very dire straits right now. And no matter how much I talk to them, you know, I say, “You should buy silver now. It’s your last chance”, they didn’t do anything and I think that’s the problem.
2011年6月29日 星期三
How to survive the Coming Economic Collapse
富爸爸說 :
#1 "when the economy crashes as we predict"
#2 "the crowds come rushing in to buy gold and silver"
#3 "we could either go into a depression or we go to hyperinflation"
#4 "or we could also go to war"
#5 "buy a gun"
#6 "I'm preparing"
#7 "I'm prepared for the worst"
#8 "so come to my house and I'm armed and dangerous and I'll welcome you"
#9 "we have food, we have water, we have guns, gold and silver, and cash"
#10 "the credit card system shuts down, the world shuts down"
#11 "the supermarkets have less than 3 days supply"
2011年1月18日 星期二
Sell Gold, Buy Silver
You may have noticed that gold is hovering around $1,360 an ounce (sliding recently after a big run-up) and silver is around $30 an ounce. That means in November of 2010 alone, gold increased in price by 2 percent and silver by 14 percent. Investing in gold and silver beats saving money in a bank earning less than 0.1 percent per month. Once again, this is further evidence that savers are losers as central banks of the world print trillions of dollars.
With paper money declining in value, millions of people are finally climbing on the gold wagon. Everywhere I go, I see signs that say, "We Buy Gold," calling out to people desperate for cash to trade in their gold jewelry.
For years now, I've said that silver is a better investment than gold.
To quickly summarize, here are a few reasons:
• Silver is consumed and gold is hoarded.
• Silver is a precious metal and is also an industrial metal that is used in electronics, medicine, water purification, and jewelry
• Today stockpiles of gold are increasing while stockpiles of silver are decreasing. (This means there's an abundance of gold and a shortage of silver).
• The gold/silver ratio is historically 14:1. This means that if gold were $14 an ounce then silver would $1 an ounce. Today, the ratio is approximately 50:1. Silver is extremely underpriced. If silver held to the historic 14:1 ratio, with gold at $1,400 an ounce then silver should be $100 an ounce -- not the $30 an ounce it is today.
In my opinion, when you combine the fact that there's a shortage of silver and that it's underpriced, silver is the safest and best investment today…but not for long.
A logical question is, "Why is the price of silver suppressed? Why is silver so much lower than gold?"
There are two primary reasons for silver's low price.
Number one, central banks buy gold, not silver. To bankers, gold is money and silver isn't. Today central banks are buying tons of gold, with India being one of the biggest buyers. This elevates the price of gold, leaving silver the bridesmaid but not the bride.
The price of silver is manipulated. The price of silver is intentionally kept low. While this is criminal, it's not illegal. Yet for decades, COMEX, the commodities exchange, has been in cahoots with the biggest silver investors at the expense of the little silver investor. This is about to end, thanks to some regulatory changes that may offer the biggest opportunity for silver investors between January and March of 2011.
What has changed?
Rumors are flying that more than 25 lawsuits have been filed against commercial investors such as JP Morgan and HSBC, accusing them of price manipulation to keep the price of silver artificially low.
The Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which is to the COMEX what the SEC is to the New York Stock Exchange, has passed a new law which will force COMEX to play fair, forbidding such massive short positions on silver.. The actions of the CFTC are one more reason for last November's 14 percent price rise in silver. The price manipulation of silver is about to end.
How was the price of silver kept low?
Big investors short-selling silver have kept the price low. For decades, the biggest players in the silver market, commercial investors such as JP Morgan and HSBC, have taken massive short positions on silver.
What does short selling mean?
Short selling (shorting) means you sell something you don't own. Simply put, you borrow something to sell with the promise you will return what you borrowed.
It's not much different than going to your neighbor to borrow 5 pounds of flour and promising to return 5 pounds of flour in a month.
Shorting is done in all markets: commodities, stocks, bonds, and real estate.
The commercial banks, generally large banks such as JPMorgan and HSBC, sell borrowed silver from the COMEX and pocket the money. The banks use that money to invest in other higher-returning investments such as stocks or bonds.
Meanwhile, COMEX has earned billions of dollars from the interest on the borrowed silver. The commercial banks and the COMEX both profit from this large short position of silver, the larger the better.
Now, with the new CFTC law, the commercial banks will need to buy back silver and return it to the exchange. The problem is not a money problem. The problem is a shortage of silver.
When the commercial banks start buying rather than selling silver, this will cause the price of silver to rise, increasing the costs to replace the silver. It's simple supply and demand.
This massive big short has left the banks with a large margin-call when a broker asks an investor to bring an account up to a minimum position. How big is the margin call in silver? It is estimated that the total net short position on the COMEX is 550 million ounces of silver. And that's just on the COMEX. Worldwide, it's estimated that the short position is 2 billion to 3 billion ounces of silver.
If this is true, that means 2 billion to 3 billion ounces of silver have been borrowed and need to be purchased and replaced.
Again, the problem is not a money problem. The problem is that there's not enough silver to cover the margin-call.
When will this margin-call occur?
The laws passed by the CFTC and Congress take effect by March 2011.
If the laws aren't repealed, the big commercial banks will be forced to buy silver to replace the silver they've been borrowing. When they buy, the price will go up.
And if the price of silver goes up during this buying period, their losses will grow like an atomic mushroom cloud. This means that the big banks and COMEX will be doing everything possible to keep the price of silver low so that they can buy silver to cover their exposed positions. In the next two to three months, you will probably see huge swings, up and down, in the price of silver.
I've been buying silver for years, starting at under $4 an ounce. One year ago, silver was about $17 an ounce. Today it's about $30 an ounce. I believe $50 to $60 an ounce is possible for 2011.
I believe it's possible to see the price of silver gain more in one year than it has gained in the past twenty years.
As I close this column, I advise you to read this great interview of Ted Butler, the person who has for years single-handedly been demanding Congress to force the COMEX and big commercial banks to play fair.
As Ted Butler states, "It is time to sell gold and buy silver."
2010年6月24日 星期四
Think the Gulf Spill Is Bad?
Tuesday, June 22, 2010
The world knows BP is a disaster, a monster of a disaster. Every time a TV news station shows oil gushing from a broken pipe -- one mile below the ocean’s surface -- the audience feels sick. Scenes of oil-soaked pelicans struggling for life angers and saddens us. The financial losses endured by small businesses and fishermen cannot be imagined, let alone conveyed by the media interviews alone. BP is a disaster whose scope is beyond comprehension.
I was in England this month when President Barack Obama blamed and criticized BP for this tragedy. His criticism sparked the anger of the English. Politicians wanted him to tone it down, to be more careful in his choice of words. English Prime Minister David Cameron told Obama “not to go after BP for the sake of it.” Richard Branson said he was “kicking a company when it was on their knees.” Their concern was not for the environment or those suffering the ravages of this disaster. Their concern was for the pensioners who are counting on BP for a secure retirement
On June 17, the UK’s Daily Mail ran a headline screaming, “Bullied Into a £13 Cave-In." Brits are angry with Obama for pressuring BP to suspend dividend payments and set aside $20 billion for the clean up. Obama’s strong-arm position has affected British pensioners, who own 40% of BP, as well as American pension funds that own 39%. In other words, the economic damage of BP goes far beyond the Gulf. The damage is spreading to pensions, pensioners, and portfolios all around the world.
Ground Zero for the Next Disaster
While in London, I decided to go to dinner at London’s Canary Wharf, ground zero for the next BP. Only a few years ago, Canary Wharf was one of the centers of the financial universe. Condo prices were sky high, offices were packed, and high-paid bankers filled Canary Wharf with wealth and excitement. Today Canary Wharf seems to be dying. It has lost its vibrancy. Many restaurants and offices were nearly empty and there were few lights to be seen in those once high-priced condos.
Canary Wharf will be the next BP, and its BP stands for Bomb Production. Canary Wharf is much like AIG, a factory for exotic financial products known as derivatives. The problem is that most people do not know what these murky and mysterious products are -- and that includes the people who make or buy them. It’s why Warren Buffett has called derivatives “weapons of mass financial destruction.” That is how powerful they are.
Back in 1966, when I was a student training to be a ship’s officer, my ship carried bombs from California to Vietnam. During World War II, a ship exploded while loading bombs at Port Chicago, California, the port where the bombs were loaded onto ships. The explosion flattened everything for miles. It is said that the ship’s anchor, which weighed tons, was found more than 60 miles away. Derivatives -- financial bombs -- have the same power if they accidently detonate inside a bank’s balance sheet.
Financial Bombs
The subprime disaster was a result of financial bombs -- derivatives -- exploding in financial institutions such as AIG and Lehman Brothers, as well as banks and financial institution throughout the world. After the bombs AIG manufactured exploded, AIG received $181 billion in taxpayer funding and immediately sent $11.9 billion to France’s Societe Generale, $11.8 to Deutsche Bank, and $8.5 billion to Barclays Bank of Britain. U.S. taxpayer money was going to bail out banks around the world. During the last three months of 2008, AIG was losing more than $27 million an hour. That is how powerful these derivatives can be. The problem I see is this: There are many more such bombs still sitting in balance sheets all over the world.
Military bombs are classified by weight such as 500, 750, and 1,000 pounds, while financial bombs have interesting labels such as CDO (collateralized debt obligations), ABS (asset backed securities), and CDS (credit default swaps). While they sound exotic and sophisticated, when put in everyday language, a CDO is simply debt sold as an asset. And CDS, or swaps, are simply a form of insurance. Since the insurance industry is strictly regulated and the bomb factories producing CDS did not want to comply with insurance industry regulations, they simply called them “swaps,” rather than insurance.
To make matters worse, rating agencies such as Moody’s and S&P (and even Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan) blessed these financial bombs as safe, sound, and good for you. It was almost as good as the pope blessing these products. In 2007 the subprime boom busted, and we know what happened from there.
The problem is that approximately $700 trillion of these financial time bombs are still in the system. While people watch the BP disaster in the Gulf, few people are aware of the other BP -- the financial bomb production -- that is still going on. If this derivative market begins to collapse, we will see another disaster.
Most of us know there is not enough money in the world to fully clean up the Gulf. The same is true with the $700 trillion derivatives market. If just 1% of the $700 trillion derivatives market goes bust, that is a $7 trillion disaster. The entire U.S. economy is only $14 trillion annually. A 10% failure, equating to $70 trillion, would probably bring down the world economy. As with the BP Gulf disaster, there is not enough money in the world to clean up the next disaster.
Could It Happen?
Could such a financial disaster happen? The answer is “Yes.” In fact, just as President Obama pressured BP into doing the “right thing,” so is he pressuring the financial markets to do the right thing. The president and our congressional leaders are pushing through financial reform legislation. My concern is that, if not handled delicately, it is this financial reform that will set off the derivative time bomb -- the next BP.
Currently, derivatives are traded over-the-counter. This mean derivatives are uncontrolled, unregulated, and unsupervised. Proposed financial reform legislation is pushing to have derivatives traded through an exchange. This will bring in greater transparency and controls. My concern is, when this happens, the change to an exchange system will reveal fraud and failures we do not yet know about today. It will be like turning on the light and watching the cockroaches (bankers) run for cover.
While it is commendable that President Obama hold the rich and powerful accountable, I wonder what the price will be? And how many BPs can we afford?
2010年2月18日 星期四
Dead cat bounce
Dow 5,000 in 2010?
In my last column I predicted a “dead cat bounce” in the stock market and a possible Dow plunge to 5,000 this year. Obviously, many readers mocked my prediction.
But understanding the dead cat bounce is vital, especially in today's market.
The market crashes, rebounds, and runs out of steam, then crashes again…unfortunately, and possibly, to a lower low.
When professional investors observe a dead cat forming, many will begin to sell. If their selling leads to a panic, the stock market goes even lower.
Putting today’s numbers to the dead cat diagram gives this topic more meaning.
In 2002, the Dow hit a low of 7,286.
In 2007, the Dow hit a high of 14,164
In 2009 the Dow fell and stopped at 6,547.
Dow 6,547 is where the market stopped falling and the dead cat bounce began. At 6,547 the market was oversold and buyers came rushing back in, looking for bargains. The Dow headed back up, and a bear market rally began.
On February 5, 2010 the Dow closed at 10,012.
On February 12, 2010 the Dow closed at 10,099.
What Does This Mean?
So the question is, “What do these numbers mean to me?” The answer to that question depends upon you. If you are a bullish person, you will be optimistic, reassured by these numbers, and looking forward to the Dow breaking 14,000 soon.
If you are bearish, you will be waiting for the dead cat to finally die and for a double dip recession to begin.
One of the theorists (and writers) I follow is Richard Russell, a wise sage who is in tune with markets and the madness of crowds. He has been in the business for about 50 years, so he has the wisdom and perspective of time. Lately, he has been writing about the ‘50% Rule’ of Dow Theory. I thought I would pass it on to you because it may assist you in seeing the future of the economy, even if --like me -- you do not trade in stocks.
The following is my interpretation of the ‘50% Rule’ using real numbers.
In 2002 the low of the Dow was 7,286.
In 2007 the Dow hit a high of 14,164.
The ‘50% Rule ‘number is 10,725…the halfway point between 7,286 and 14,164.
In 2007, when the market headed down and broke 10,725, professional traders who follow the Dow Theory ‘50% Rule’ knew what was going to happen next. On March 9, 2009, the crash stopped at Dow 6,547.
On that day, what I believe is a ‘dead cat bounce’ began as the market moved up.
On January 19, 2010, the Dow stalled at 10,725 and headed down again. This is spooky. The 50% rule came true.The next interesting point is 7,286, the low of 2002, when the rally began. According to Russell, if the Dow holds at 7,286 and begins a rally, this might be a good time to buy. But if it fails to hold at 7,286 and slides past 6,547, then look out for dead cats dropping from the sky. Russell predicts that Dow 1,000, the number at which the Dow began its rally in the 1970s, may not be out of the question. If that happens, there will be millions of baby boomers joining the dead cats falling from the sky as their 401(k)s and IRAs implode.
Other Markets
This ‘50% Rule’ may apply to other markets such as gold, the hot commodity of this era.
In 1971 gold was $35 an ounce. I began buying gold in 1972 when I was a pilot in Vietnam, watching the Vietnamese panic when they knew the U.S. was not going to win the war.
Gold hit a peak of $850 an ounce in January of 1980.
Gold dropped to a low of $252 in July of 1999. Obviously, I bought a lot of gold in 1999. Gold was at an all-time low because Central Banks, such as the Fed and the Bank of England, were dumping gold in an attempt to protect the value of their counterfeit currencies.
According to the ‘50% Rule’ of Dow Theory, when the price of gold was passing $600 an ounce(halfway between $850 and $252), a rally in gold was on. When gold passed $600, mainstream financial experts began warning of a crash in the price of gold… stating that gold was in a bubble.
Today gold fluctuates between $1,000 and $1,200 an ounce.
Is Gold in a Bubble?
When you factor in inflation and devaluation of the U.S. dollar, $850 gold in 1980 is $2,500 an ounce in today’s dollars. In other words, gold might be at 50% at $1,200, which is the highest of highs. Could there be a run to $2,500?
Your personal answer to that question will depend upon how confident you are in Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, President Obama, and Wall Street. If you have faith in our leaders of commerce, don’t buy gold. If you do not have faith in them, maybe you should buy gold or silver.
If the dead cat bounce dies and the Dow drops to 5,000 in 2010, as I predict, then the price of gold and silver may die with the dead cat of the Dow, as investors cling to cash. The next question you need to answer is, “If the Dow dies and the price of gold and silver drop, what should you invest in at the bottom…stocks, gold and silver, or cash?”
I know what I will do. I will buy more gold and silver. Why? The answer is because I trust gold and silver more than Central bankers, the Oval Office, and Wall Street. Gold and silver have been real money for thousands of years.
The Lost Decade
The people I am most concerned about are the average investors who have bought their financial planner’s advice of “Invest for the long term in a well-diversified portfolio of stocks, bonds, and mutual funds.”
Many investors are calling the past 10 years The Lost Decade. That means those who invested for the long term in stocks, bonds, mutual funds, and cash are long-term losers. Japan has been in a Lost Two Decades.
A ‘lost decade’ means:
1. Zero job creation.
2. Zero economic gains for the typical family. Home values are down and many families owe more on their home than the home is worth.
3. Zero gains in the stock market.
Over the next few months, it is important to watch both the Dow and gold. As I write, the Dow is around 10,000 and gold is at $1,000. If the Dow breaks 7,286, the 2002 low, and continues down below 6,547, the 2009 low, watch out below. If 6,547 is broken and gold passes $2,500 an ounce, you'll have even more to worry about.
2010年1月10日 星期日
2010: The Best of Times or the Worst?
Is the recession over? Are happy days really here again? Paraphrasing Dickens, my answer is, “For people who are prepared, 2010 will be the best of times. For many, 2010 will be the worst of times.”
Pictured above is a graph of mortgage resets. In simple terms, a mortgage reset is when a mortgage comes due. In normal times, refinancing was a simple process…but these are not normal times. Some points of interest:
1. In September 2008, the mortgage resets hit $35 billion that month. That was the exact time the financial crisis hit. When people could not afford to refinance and began to default, the stock market and banking industry crashed.
2. The eye of the storm: In the summer of 2009 mortgage resets were low -- around $15 billion a month. This is when optimists began to see “green shoots” in the economy. The green shoots were the eye of the storm. In 2010, as I see it, the second half of the financial hurricane hits. By late 2011, the resets climb to nearly $40 billion a month. The storm will not end until 2012.
3. The first half of the storm was primarily due to subprime defaults. The second half of the storm will hit more solid homeowners. The question is, can they weather the storm? Will Mac Mansion foreclosures be next?
4. In America, there are over 40 million people who own more than two homes. Can they afford to carry and refinance two or more mortgages?
5. Since home values have gone down, many homeowners will find they owe more than their home(s) are worth. Will the bank be kind to them?
6. The time for using your home as an ATM is over. This is crushing retailers and retail real estate. Shopping centers are in trouble. Strip malls are empyting as shopkeepers close -- permanently. This will lead to the crash of the office, warehouse, and other commercial properties.
My prediction: Obviously these are the best of times if you are a buyer of distressed properties and the worst of times if you are a seller.
Other things I am watching for in 2010:
1. Will China crash? America’s crash has hit China in the gut. The Chinese are laying off millions of workers. Only massive government bailout is keeping the economy afloat. The Chinese boom will eventually go bust…but will it bust in 2010? Only time will tell.
2. When America stopped importing from China, China stopped importing from the rest of the world. This affects Asian countries as well as Australia, Brazil, and other suppliers of raw materials.
3. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is replacing toxic debt with new debt. By protecting his friends in the mega-banks, he is turning the U.S. into a zombie nation. The recession is over, but America is entering an era we will be calling The New Depression, a period when the rich become extremely rich but everyone else becomes poorer. Taxes will kill anyone working for a paycheck.
4. The U.S. dollar will grow weaker. If the dollar strengthens, we will have more unemployment because our goods become too expensive and we will export less.
5. The deficit will increase. The bailouts for the rich are killing the economy.
6. Israel may attack Iran. Israel will not tolerate Iran developing nuclear power, even if Iran claims it is for peaceful purposes. If there is an attack, oil prices will go through the roof.
7. Dead cat bounce. The current stock market rally will probably turn into a dead cat bounce. If the Dow drops below 6500, 5,000 may be the next stop.
The Best of Times
I know I sound painfully pessimistic. I know my predictions are bad news for most people. Yet, for others, bad news is good news.
Prediction #2: Gold, silver, and oil will continue to be safe investments in 2010
By the end of 2010, I predict gold will be at $1,775 an ounce, silver at $24 an ounce, and oil at $85 a barrel. If Israel attacks Iran, these predictions will be blown away.
Prediction #3: The next market to crash will be commercial real estate.
Cash flow positive real estate will be even more affordable. 2010 through 2012 will be a real estate buffet for those with cash and access to credit.
My Personal Investments
As I stated in 2002, “You have up to the year 2010 to become prepared.”
The following are things I have done to prepare myself:
1. I started The Rich Dad Company in 1997 because I saw this crisis coming. For the past three years, I have tightened internal controls and prepared for global expansion via a franchise distribution system. The company is debt free with strong income.
2. 2009 was my best real estate year to date. With the Fed handing out large sums of money and pension funds looking for projects to invest in, my real estate holding company has acquired tens of millions of dollars for acquisition of bankrupt properties and development projects. Development projects are affordable again, as labor, material, and land costs are low and the government is generous with 40-year, low interest, non-recourse loans. People still need a roof over their heads.
3. My oil development projects have done well. We drilled three wells and hit oil on two of them. Government tax breaks for oil exploration remain generous, even for dry holes. Even if the economy crashes, we will still burn oil.
4. I took 90% of my money out of the stock market in 2007. If the Fed raises interest rates, the stock market and real estate market will collapse.
5. I loaded up on gold and silver between 1996 and 2004.
6. With the Fed printing trillions of dollars, cash is trash and savers are losers. As soon as I have excess cash I invest in oil, real estate, gold, and silver.
7. In a zero-interest-rate environment, debtors are winners…but only if you have good debt…debt that’s paid by tenants.
In Conclusion
A few years ago, Japan was ‘King of the Financial World.’ Japan’s economy was the world’s second largest economy -- till the bubble burst in 1990. Japan’s budget went into deficit in 1993. Since then, the deficit has averaged 5.4 percent of GDP per year. As a result, Japanese government debt is now 200 percentof GDP today. The U.S. is following Japan, and China will follow the U.S.
We will not see much inflation because the Fed is not able to print enough money to replace the losses from the burst of the credit bubble. Also, factories have too much excess capacity due to lack of demand, which means prices for consumer goods will remain low and unemployment will remain high. Instead, we will see inflation in gold, silver, oil, some stocks, some real estate sectors, and food -- not because values are going up but because the dollar is going down.
Welcome to The New Depression. And may these times be the best of times for you.
2009年9月7日 星期一
富爸爸 : Preparing for the Worst
"Is the crisis over?" is a question I am often asked. "Is the economy coming back?"
My reply is, "I don't think so. I would prepare for the worst."
Like most people, I wish for a better future for all of us. Life is better when people are working, happy, and spending money.
The stock market has been going up since March 9, 2009. Talk of "green shoots" fill the air. Yet, in spite of the more positive news, I continue to recommend that people prepare for the worst. The following are some of my reasons:
1. I believe the stock market is being manipulated. I suspect the government, banks, and Wall Street are doing everything they can to keep the market from crashing. Our leaders know that nothing makes the world feel better than a raging bull market.
Do I have any proof that the market is being manipulated? No. I just smell a rat, or a pack of rats. I believe greed, self-interest, arrogance, and fear control the financial markets. I suspect those in charge will do anything to keep us all from panicking... and I don't blame them. A global panic would be ugly and dangerous.
2. In my view, this global crisis has been caused by the Federal Reserve Bank, the U.S. Treasury, Wall Street, and the central banks of the world. They caused the problem, profited excessively in doing so, and now profit by being asked to fix the problem.
Every time I hear a politician mention the word stimulus, my mind flashes back to high school biology class, when I touched battery wires to a dead frog to make it twitch. Today, you and I are the dead frogs. Pretty soon the dead frog will be fried frog.
In the 1980s, our government's hot money stimulus was measured only in the millions of dollars. By the 1990s, the government had to ramp the stimulus voltage into the billions in order to get the frog to twitch. Today the frog has jumper cables with trillions in high-voltage hot money pouring through the lines.
While most us feel better when we have more high-voltage money in our hands, none of us feel good about higher taxes, increasing national debt, and rising inflation for the long term. Another old saying goes, "Sometimes the cure is worse than the disease." I say the government stimulus cure is killing us frogs.
3. Old frogs don't hop. Another reason I am cautious about the future is that the Western world has a growing number of old frogs. Between 1970 and 2000, the economy responded to bailouts and stimulus packages because the baby boomers of the world were entering their greatest earning years -- their purchasing power increased, and demand for homes, cars, refrigerators, computers, and TVs boosted the economy.
The stimulus plans seemed to work. But when a person turns 60, their spending habits change dramatically. They stop consuming and start conserving like a bear preparing for winter. The economy of the Western world is heading into winter. Hot wires and hot money will not get old frogs to hop. Old frogs will simply join the bears and stick that money in the bank as they prepare for the long, hard winter known as old age. The businesses that will do well in a winter economy are drug companies, hospitals, wheelchair manufacturers, and mortuaries.
4. The dying frog economy will lead us to the biggest Ponzi schemes of all: Social Security and Medicare. If we think this subprime financial crisis is big, it's my opinion that this crisis will be dwarfed by the crisis brewing in Social Security and Medicare...Medicare being the biggest crisis of all. As old frogs head for the big lily pad in the sky, they will demand young frogs spend even more in tax dollars just to keep old frogs from croaking.
5. The 401(k)Ponzi scheme. A Ponzi scheme, like the scheme Madoff ran, depends upon young money to pay off old money. In other words, a Ponzi scheme needs tadpoles to finance old frogs. The same is true for the 401(k) and other retirement plans to work. If young money does not come into the stock market, the old money cannot retire. One reason so many people my age are worried, not only about Social Security and Medicare, is because they're concerned about getting their money out of the stock market before the other old frogs decide to drain the swamp.
The facts are that the 401(k) plan has a trigger that requires old frogs to begin withdrawing their money at a certain age. In other words, as baby boomers grow older, more and more will be required, by law, to begin withdrawing their money from the market. You do not have to be a rocket scientist to know that it is hard for a market to keep going up when more and more people are getting out.
The reason the 401(k) has this law related to mandatory withdrawals is because the Federal government wants to collect the taxes that they deferred when the worker's money went into the plan. In other words, the taxman wants their pound of flesh. Since they allowed the worker to invest without paying taxes, the government wants their tax dollars when the employee retires. That is why the laws require older workers to sell their shares ¬-- and pay their pound of flesh.
Demographics show that we are entering a battle between young and old. I call it the "Age War." The young want to hang onto their money to grow their families, businesses, and wealth. The old want the tax and investment dollars of the young to sustain their old age.
This war is not coming...it is upon us now. This is one of many reasons why I remain cautious and say, "The worst is yet to come."