
不過只驚央行出來干擾 !
一位在阿聯酋工作的讀者問我,他應該選擇以美元還是歐元出糧較化算?我之所以帶出這個話題,原因是我有一些讀者都在外國工作,以當地貨幣消費,但工資卻是以另一種貨幣計算。換句話說,他們要承擔滙率風險。
以上述那位讀者情況為例,假如他以美元出糧,基本上將不用承擔滙率風險,因為阿聯酋貨幣迪拉姆( Dirham)與美元掛鈎。反之,如果他選擇以歐元出糧,即是他需要承受滙率風險,並意味着打賭歐元兌美元或迪拉姆將有升值潛力。
我會建議他選擇收取美元作工資,然後在生活開支鬆動和滙市條件合適的情況下,不定時把部份美元兌換成其他貨幣。事實上,我不認為歐元有能力大升,而《經濟學人》編制的「巨無霸指數」( Big Mac Index)正顯示歐元滙率稍為偏高。
教科書理論告訴大家,經濟強,股市會漲,債息也會上升;相反來說,經濟弱,股市會跌,債息亦會跌。 然而,美國花旗銀行的全球股市總策略師Robert Buckland早前發表的研究報告指出,自上月以來,反映全球股市變化的大摩全球股票指數上升了8%,但同一時期,花旗銀行的全球10年期國家債券的指 數不升反跌,亦即出現了「不正常的背馳」。以美國10年期國家債券的孳息率為例,目前已跌至2.5厘以下,除了2008年金融海嘯期間曾出現類似的低位 外,這是美債孳息60年來的最低水平。更矚目的是,不單美債如此,環球主要債券市場,如德國國債,也呈現類似罕見的低息情況。
最新一期的美國財經周刊《巴倫》解釋謂,這陣子股市與債息「反常地」背道而行,正是因為債市投資者認定了環球經濟會陷入一次嚴重衰退,而股市投資者則繼續看好經濟。誰對誰錯,對於世界資產價格將會有重大衝擊。
股債背馳 資金大角力
《巴倫》指出,若日後經濟走向證實了債市投資者是對的,那麼環球股市恐怕要來一次深度調整。報道引 述加拿大皇家銀行的策略師指出,以美股為例,其跌幅恐怕會多達11%至21%不等。相反,若股市投資者的判斷證實是對的,債市便會出現一次大崩潰,以10 年期美債為例,其價格恐怕會下跌近四分之一!
花旗的上述研究報告更指出,今次的股債背馳現象在過去10年一共出現過10次,其中有8次正是像 這回的「股市與債息同步上升背馳」。最值得大家注視的是,在這8次「背馳」裡,有5次證明是股市猜對了,亦即債息隨後急升;債市猜中的次數只有2次,1次 則兩者不分高下。該研究續稱,今次股市有很大機會猜中,亦即意味著該行認為債息會飆升。
過去一年裡,流入債市的避險資金已高達4,000億美元,這是一場何等巨大的賭注,由於香港與內 地的外匯儲備大多投資於外國的國債,所以一旦債市出現大波動,勢必禍及港人的身家。更值得熱中炒樓的港人留意的是,一旦債市出現拋售潮,市場利率必然會攀 升,後果如何不言而喻。
筆者認為美股美債現水平皆欠長線的吸納價值,加上南中國海對峙局勢及伊朗政局等,皆為潛在利好具避險價值的黃金。所以,我認為新一輪的黃金升浪已近在眼前,樂觀點說,不排除下月每盎司黃金便可再創歷史新高,今年底至明年第一季更可挑戰1,500美元大關!
上周五美股高收與本周日本央行將宣佈有利股市的消息,料港股將跟隨反彈,建議投資者趁反彈減持。(www.upway18.com)
金榮財富管理首席基金經理 中國北方金銀業策略顧問 史理生
被視為「國際大鱷」索羅斯幕後軍師的對沖基金奇才德魯肯米勒(Stanley Druckenmiller),上周突然宣布結束現值一百二十億美元的Duquesne基金,從此金盆洗手,退出江湖,令國際金融界嘩然。這條「鱷後之 鱷」最知名一役,是在九二年策動狙擊英鎊(他時任索羅斯旗下量子基金的投資總監),最後狂賺十億美元。而與香港直接有關的,則是九八年參與對香港金融市場 的世紀進攻,最後觸發政府捍衛金融體系的「官鱷大戰」,戰況之激烈可說空前。
當年風雲激盪,如今人面全非,德魯肯米勒黯然收山,索羅斯垂垂老矣,那時候領軍決戰大鱷的曾蔭權現肩負特首之責(時任財政司司長);另外兩位大將,任志剛 已離任金管局總裁,展開人生新階段,許仕仁(時任財經事務局局長)也於年前退休,逍遙天地間。是非成敗轉頭空,這段歷史已成過去,但留下的慘痛教訓,卻必 須深記,特別是最近香港再現「九七陰影」,更應以前車為鑑,避免歷史重演。
當時香港經濟穩步增長,公共財政政策保守謹慎,港元因有聯繫匯率甚為穩定,政府持有的儲備逾九百億美元,加上銀行體系健全,以這樣穩固的基礎,為何一受到對沖基金進襲,即出現巨大波動,甚至瀕臨分崩離析的生死關頭?
期間擔任金管局副總裁的沈聯濤(後出任證監會主席),在《十年輪迴——從亞洲到全球金融危機》一書指出了問題的關鍵:「對沖基金通常把危機看成機遇,特別 是,如果看到難以持續的資產泡沫赫然出現時,他們拋售估值過高的資產和有關貨幣,就能輕易獲利,要是他們是比竭力捍衛本國貨幣的中央銀行更厲害的大炒家, 贏取暴利就猶如囊中取物。」
當時香港的資產泡沫正正愈脹愈大,一來國際熱錢大量流入亞洲,香港更是主要目標;二來香港對房地產需求日大,供應卻不足,以致樓價急升,加上通脹高於美國形成負利率,促使更多投資者買入物業保值,將樓市炒熱,地產股與銀行股亦不斷飆升。
大鱷看準機會,一方面大量沽空港元,迫使金管局接貨,同業拆息因銀根收緊而上升,股市隨之下跌;另一方面大手沽空期指,藉股市急瀉獲取暴利。大鱷把股市、 港匯與利率玩弄於股掌之中,恒指跌至六千六百點的危險低位,政府知道不能不果斷反擊,毅然以雷霆之勢運用儲備入市干預,大舉購入成分股,與大鱷展開生死搏 鬥。
作為幕後主謀的德魯肯米勒,當時囂張地指港府的反擊必以落敗告終:「不論他們在市場做甚麼,當他們星期一早上睡醒時,他們仍會陷於沮喪之中!」幸而他沒言中,政府強力出擊令炒家措手不及,加上俄羅斯爆發金融危機,大鱷在歐洲市場嚴重損手,終於倉皇撤退。
我們從這場戰役吸取的最大教訓有二:一是資產急速泡沫化必誘使大鱷進擊;二是銀行信貸過度膨脹,規管機制因經濟過熱變得鬆懈,是爆發金融危機的底因。最近 政府再度出招,顯然是記取當年的慘痛經歷,及早把爆煲危機降低,從目前情況看,此舉實屬必要,亦開始對穩定市場起到作用。
沈聯濤總結當年經驗說,對這樣的危機,採取預防措施愈早愈好,並時刻警惕「問題總比預期的糟」;此外,在非常之時一定要採取非常之策。面對新的危機,這兩點經驗仍然適用。
人均黃金需求比印度、中國還高的越南,黃金需求可能會升溫,主要是過去1年間越南盾3度貶值,以及股市回檔。
國家金融監督委員會副主席、總理顧問Le Xuan Nghia表示:「大家轉向黃金,規避風險。越南盾的走勢促使人們增持黃金。」
為了增加出口,政府上周讓越南盾貶值,造成越南盾大貶至歷史低點。越南股市已經進入所謂的熊市,相較於5月高點,拉回20%以上。在擔憂全球經濟復甦步伐可能不穩的情況下,6月以美元計價的黃金創歷史新高。
Vietnam Gold Business分析師Nguyen Hoang指出:「黃金和美元等強勢貨幣,吸引越南人投資,特別是在近來股市拉回與越南盾走弱的走勢下。」
由於憂心歐美經濟回暖漸失動能,6月21日,即期交割黃金寫下1盎司1265.30美元的新紀錄。新加坡時間27日下午3:17,報1235.90美元。因為央行買進與投資人增持,金價可能寫下連漲10年的紀錄。
Texas (Kitco News) -- U.S. Rep. Ron Paul , R-Tex., plans to introduce a new bill next year that will allow for an audit of US gold reserves, he told Kitco News in an exclusive interview.
Paul dropped the news in the interview, indicating that the bill still does not have an official name yet but will be unveiled at the start of the new U.S. Congress.
“If there was no question about the gold being there, you think they would be anxious to prove gold is there,” he said of the Federal Reserve.
This is not the first time the congressman has made his pitch. “In the early 1980s when I was on the gold commission, I asked them to recommend to the Congress that they audit the gold reserves – we had 17 members of the commission and 15 voted not to the audit,” said Paul. “I think there was only one decent audit done 50 years ago,” he said.
Though Paul did not say whether there is any truth to claims that there is no gold in Fort Knox or the New York Federal Reserve, he said, “I think it is a possibility.”
“If we ever get around to deciding we should use gold in relationship to our currency we ought to know how much is there,” said Paul. “Our Federal Reserve admits to nothing and they should prove all the gold is there. There is a reason to be suspicious and even if you are not suspicious why wouldn’t you have an audit?” he said.
The gold audit follows his crusade last year looking to audit the Federal Reserve, which he says is the chief culprit behind the economic crisis.
“I don’t think the Federal Reserve should exist – it would be best for congress to exert their responsibilities and that is find out what they are doing”' said Paul. "It is an ominous amount of power they have to create money out of thin air and being the reserve currency of the world and be able to finance runaway spending whether it is for welfare or warfare; it seems so strange that we have been so complacent not to even look at the books. If we knew exactly what they were doing, who they were taking care of, there would be a growing momentum to reassess the whole system,” he told Kitco News.
Before the creation of the Federal Reserve however, the US saw 16 recessions from 1850 to 1910; they averaged 22 months long. During this time, the U.S. was in recession 60 out of 91 months. Many would argue that the severity of these recessions led to the creation of the Federal Reserve System.
“I think they would be exaggerating what happened before 1913,” Paul responds. “We had some panics …they were usually short and there were no long depressions,” he said. “The Fed creates the bubbles and they are much worse since 1913, if you think of the size of the government and the valuation of the dollar, we are down to about a 2 cent dollar from the 1913 dollar.”
Paul said everyone accuses him of wanting the gold standard but he said he doesn't accept that. “I accept the idea of a gold coin standard and I think we can do much better than what we had," he said. "There was a lot that they did pre-Fed that was not exactly right but we never had a disastrous loss of purchasing power long-term, we didn’t have a great depression, we didn’t have the 1970s with stagflation and we wouldn’t have what we have right now.”
Since the Fed’s creation in 1913 the dollar has lost more than 96% of its value, and by inflating the money supply the Fed continues to distort interest rates and intentionally erodes the value of the dollar said Paul.
Paul’s solution is to not replace the Fed with anything. “It would make the dollar strong… who wants money to be devalued? I want a strong dollar and if it were equivalent to gold it would remain strong.”
Paul also said he wants to legalize the freedom for people to choose. “My proposal for now is to legalize the constitution to use gold and silver as legal tender in a parallel standard and have it compete with paper money. If people get tired of using the paper standard they can deal in gold or silver,” he said.
On the topic of gold price manipulation, Paul said, “I think it is probably true.”
“I am not the one to lay out proof of this, others have done a lot of investigation. One of the reasons I don’t dwell on that is they are not going to listen to us" he said. "But I think it is very important somebody talks about it and emphasizes it just as a warning to be careful; you don’t have to only anticipate what the markets are doing, but you have to anticipate what the government is doing.”
The best example of manipulating the ratio of gold to paper would have been from the late 1950s to 1971, said Paul. “We printed money like currency, we printed too many dollars against the gold, so they said, ‘we will take your gold.’ …if they are capable of that they are capable of doing this as well, because they don’t want their cover blown, ” said Paul. If the markets are saying not to trust paper money, they have to do everything they can to “destroy gold,” said Paul.
Recounting a visit with Paul Volcker, former Chairman of the Fed Reserve, Rep. Paul said the Chairman walked straight into the room, went immediately to his staffer and asked what the price of gold was. “They know gold is important. I think they are quite willing to manipulate it. That is the only way they can maintain this false illusion about gold.”
“If they are involved isn’t it pretty amazing what has happened in past year? What will happen if they throw in the towel?” said Paul.
The current economic situation is very healthy for gold, said Paul. “You see people rushing just to put their money in any place …they don’t even care about making money.”
New Regulations
When asked what regulations the Congressman is currently worried about, he said, “All of them.” However, Paul specifically points to the 1099 provision, a portion of the health-care act, passed earlier in the year. “For every transaction of over $600, gold dealers have to fill out a form, it is a lot of paperwork,” said the congressman. Entities must file a Form 1099 with the Internal Revenue Service whenever they make transactions paying out $600 a year to another party.
US economy
It is going to continue to go downhill said Paul on the US economy. “I don’t believe in a double dip, I believe we have single-dip and it has been continuous.”
“The only reason it doesn’t look so bad is if you spend $2 trillion dollars and you have a $5 hundred billion increase in some GDP figures, you didn’t get much for your trillion dollars but it might improve your statistics, so it was a fake recovery.”
As for another presidency run, Paul says it is too early to tell.
By Daniela Cambone dcambone@kitco.com
近日環球股市偏軟,美、日國債及金價卻節節上升,反映在成熟國家經濟可能出現二次探底的憂慮下,環球資金視這 三種資產為避險工具。然而,美、日兩國的負債和赤字問題甚為嚴重,筆者認為上述兩債絕非理想避險工具,雖然短線來說資金或許仍會被迫流進兩債暫避風頭,惟 隨着兩國經濟進一步收縮,兩國央行勢將加推新一輪量化寬鬆行動( QE II),長遠對兩國幣值及通脹預期有負面影響。
美國加州大學理察.興堡( Dr.Richard Heinberg)教授及其他學者曾做過研究,推測石油在見頂之後會有新的社會秩序,在 100年內,世界會出現四個黑暗階段:第一階段為油價一路上升( 2003年中已出現)、地區停電日多,燃料、煤、原材料價上升,通脹隨之而來,經濟衰退導致失業人數多,加上中東政局不穩,恐怖活動頻生( 911就是序幕)。
第二階段為石油及能源配給,能源價格高昂,股市衰落,導致滯脹出現,第三國家出現饑荒及死亡,全球停電無日無之,能源爭奪戰揭開序幕,人口必須由城市搬往郊區,減少對能源依賴。
第三階段為石油非常短缺,交通停頓,農作物失收,流行病毒泛起,全球出現饑荒,人類生活極度困難,人口因死亡而下降,全球陷入動亂不穩。
第四階段為整個人類社會重組,全新國際秩序及優先剩下的人口重新分配餘下的能源,人類將要面臨並適應「非石油支持」的新時代,我們將生存在現時無法想像的新生活方式。
全球最大外匯對沖基金FX Concepts主席John R. Taylor在年初看淡歐元,兌美元在1.33水平時看8月前歐元見1.2,一語中的。他在6月中時仍然看淡歐元,豈料歐元兌美元由6月7日低位1.1877一路反彈向上,並曾上試1.33水平。
8月開始大跌至來年1月
John R.Taylor在7月29日當天仍然看淡,以「反彈正在完結」(The Rally is Ending)為題,他堅信歐元會再下跌,商品貨幣會受到很大壓力,其周期分析認為「現在」—7月29日是外匯市場重要的轉向日子,亦是股市和信貸市場中 線轉向的日子。不過,他也認為股市和信貸市場的大跌浪會在8月最後一個星期才會到臨,屆時股市向下,信貸差價擴闊,政府債券會升至新高。
根據其技術周期分析,9月、10月是黑暗的降臨,資金緊縮及資不抵債的問題會急速推低大市,亦會將世界推回衰退之路。較遠之路不清楚,但重要的風險周期底將在1月出現,更厲害的風險周期底則在2011年第3季出現。
歐元區經濟不可能承受來年的經濟衰退,歐洲銀行壓力測試只用於銀行的炒賣組合而非長期持有組合,銀行一級資本偏低,毆元區發生債務重整的機會很大。
John R.Taylor在外匯市場有不少影響力,大家要留心的是他的觀點看法和與市場走勢的關係。如他的立論距離事實不遠的話,歐洲債務危機將會促使有避險功能的美元及黃金同步上升。
黃金吸納位為1,195至1,198美元。www.upway18.com
聯儲局主席伯南克早前表示仍有3大「彈藥」在手:第1招,將商業銀行在聯儲局的超額準備金利率,由 現有0.25厘降至0,鼓勵銀行取出超額準備金,增加商業放貸。但分析認為,美國信貸投放量萎縮,主因是需求不足,而非供應緊張,加上有關利率已處於較低 水平,即使降至0,影響也不大。
伯南克提出的第2招,是聯儲局向市場發放更多信息,影響投資者對維持超低息政策時期的預期。如在 利率政策措辭上,不再使用維持低息「多一段時期」的用語,代之以明確的時間。但此舉有損聯儲局利率政策的靈活性。伯南克的最後一招,是聯儲局恢復購買國債 等債券,以降低其孳息率,從而影響整體息口。但美國國債孳息率已處於較低水準,下調空間有限。
分析又指,聯儲局增加國債持有量,相當於通過印鈔為聯邦政府債務融資,或損害其貨幣政策的可信度,而且單靠貨幣手段刺激經濟,很容易陷入「流動性陷阱」,即減息或增加貨幣供應量,並未刺激需求增加。在這種情況下,再寬鬆的貨幣政策也無法改變市場利率。
■新華社
M86 Security滲入黑客位於東歐的伺服器,揭發事件,並已於2周前通知警方和有關銀行,但沒有透露受影響銀行的名稱;相關黑客活動現時似未停止。M86 Security表示,「宙斯3代」是3年前出現的銀行木馬病毒「宙斯」的改良版,專門針對視窗系統。
匿藏普通網站 《紐時》也中招
過往的電腦病毒一般匿藏在賭博和色情網站中,但「宙斯3代」等新型病毒卻在普通網站也能匿藏,美國 《紐約時報》的網上廣告也曾受同類病毒感染。「宙斯3代」利用微軟網絡瀏覽器Internet Explorer和文件閱讀器Adobe Reader等軟件的保安漏洞,感染個人電腦。
結餘近萬即被盜 銀行束手無策
「宙斯3代」侵入個人電腦後會先蟄伏,只有用戶登入網上理財網站後才發難,可騎劫用戶理財活動。 「宙斯3代」不但能盜取銀行用戶的登入名稱、密碼和其他重要資料,還可以「查詢」用戶的結餘,如超過800英鎊(約9,817港元),便會直接將帳戶結餘 轉到另一個被盜用的銀行帳戶中,再轉到黑客控制的國外帳戶。「宙斯3代」然後在被盜帳戶顯示假結餘,使用戶全然不覺存款被盜。使用「雙編碼」認證(包含一 個只能使用一次的編碼)的銀行,亦對「宙斯3代」束手無策。M86 Security建議銀行用戶向銀行申請,關閉允許轉帳給第三者的設定。有銀行界人士指出,各大銀行對這種新攻擊方式全無所聞。
■《泰晤士報》/Cnet.com
10:00 am : The dollar's role as a safe haven from economic uncertainty has sent it 1.2% higher this session. That's its best percentage move in two months and enough to put the greenback at a one week high.
An interest in the safety of gold has trumped concerns about implications of a stronger dollar on precious metals prices. Futures contracts for gold currently price the yellow metal at $1202.50 per ounce, up 0.5%.
Despite the relative strength of gold prices, market participants are dumping shares of diversified metals and miners, which are currently down more than 4%, collectively. That has undermined the materials sector, which has plummeted to a 2.4% loss.
Let me restate some economic principles:
Inflation is first and foremost a monetary phenomenon. Monetary inflation is the real threat caused by creating money out of nothing. Price inflation is not real “inflation” but merely the
natural consequence of monetary inflation and tends to follow with a time lag.
Gold and silver are performing their usual predictive function in anticipation of future price inflation. They have risen steadily for several years.
From a price-inflation perspective, we are in a deflationary period. From a monetary inflation point of view, the government is still printing money and monetary inflation will continue. It will not be reflected in price inflation until the money gets into circulation.
The Velocity of Money
The banks where the money has been deposited will have to start lending the money to get it into circulation. The government produced the money and gave it to the banks, and the banks must loan it into circulation.
Because of all the uncertainties created by the Obama Administration about the future of taxes and the economy, banks are afraid to loan money for fear of losing it. Businessmen are logically afraid to borrow because they don’t know what the future looks like, so they won’t invest and expand their businesses, keeping the economy in the doldrums.
Until the banks realize they can’t make much money if they don’t loan the money they are sitting on and just deposit it in interest-bearing accounts yielding under two percent at the Federal Reserve, the money won’t get into circulation and cause price inflation.
Always distinguish monetary inflation from price inflation. Monetary inflation is caused by creating more currency; price inflation is caused by the velocity of money or currency getting into circulation.
Despite the fact that we are in a price-deflationary period, gold and silver are holding up under forces that theoretically should be bearish for the metals, but it isn’t bearish for the metals because the markets are looking ahead to the inevitable future price inflation When price inflation shows up, they will take off.
Also, Socialism always causes inflation. The Soviet Union tried to control price inflation with price controls, which inevitably created horrendous shortages with people standing in line if a rumor spread that a store had something to sell. Even if they didn’t know what it was and didn’t want it, they knew they could barter it or sell it for rubles which they could spend to support their families.
We will see the same thing. When price inflation breaks out, government will eventually try to control price increases, which will create inevitable shortages. I don’t know when it will happen, as the timing is beyond my pay grade. It is inevitable. We simply need to wait it out and use the current pause in the markets to load up on gold and silver to protect our assets from the coming price inflation.
Two Functions
The metals serve two basic functions. One is insurance. When you own coins and bullion, you are insuring against the potential loss of the purchasing power of the dollar. Money is supposed to be a medium of exchange and a store of value. The dollar is still an important medium of exchange, but many years ago ceased to be a store of value.
You need to own some actual bullion or bullion-type coins for insurance. Not for profit, but for insurance. It will be profitable, but that’s not your primary objective. If you want to make big money with gold and silver, the best way is gold and silver in the ground.
That’s why I recommend mining stocks after you have insurance. The fundamentals that apply to any corporation apply to mining stocks. I have listed many of them in my Maverick Ala Carte Investment Menu.
The mining stocks are the place to make money. It will not be the place ultimately for insurance protection.
The day will probably come when liquidity in the stock market is a real problem. When I see that coming, I will recommend you liquidate your mining stocks and transfer your assets into gold and silver coins and bullion.
By Howard Ruff
The Ruff Times
定期存款設計簡單,是保守派投資者的最愛。近期各銀行為爭取人民幣存款,紛紛調高定存息率吸客。當 中以中信國際銀行(下簡稱信銀)最高,12個月定存利率按階段遞升,如存入金額達50萬元人民幣以上,可獲額外0.2%現金回贈,計及所有優惠,年利率高 達1.8厘。根據現時的百分百存款保障條款,市民於持牌銀行存款10萬元或以下,可獲百分百保障保本,算是風險最低。
另外,有3家銀行推出人民幣存款證,持有人可按季、年或於贖回日獲派發預先保證的利息回報,而且 可於到期日全數取回本金。除信銀只限投資者認購外,礇豐及恒生均接受零售客認購,入場費為5萬元人民幣,投資期為6個月,平均年利率為2厘。不過,存款證 亦有分記名及不記名,後者不包括在存款保障計劃之內。
結構性存款不受百分百保障
隨著簽訂人民幣《清算協議》,各類人民幣保單即蜂擁而出,主要為儲蓄壽險,潛在回報率最高達2.8厘。不過,人民幣儲蓄壽險計劃年期較長,一般為5至10年,資金被鎖死,可能會錯過更佳的投資機會。
與利率或貨幣掛鹇的結構性投資存款亦大受歡迎,入場費僅1萬元人民幣,年利率最高達3.5厘,部分 銀行如信銀及東亞更設有最低回報,即使投資者看錯走勢,仍有利息落袋。不過,投資者要留意,雖然有關產品名為存款,而且保本,但不受百分百存款保障;如銀 行資不抵債或倒閉,投資者可能會賠上本金。
基金入場費低 可隨時贖回
海通資產日前推出全港首隻以人民幣計價及交付的基金,不過礙於小QFII仍未開通,只可投資中國境 外的人民幣定息或浮息債務產品,投資選擇不多,並需繳付多項費用,例如認購費及管理費。此外,基金表現要視乎基金經理「功力」,投資可能虧損,屬高風險產 品。不過,該基金勝在入場費不高,僅1萬元人民幣,加上沒有投資期限,可隨時贖回,較為靈活。
有基金經理透露,一般中國或大中華債券基金主要投資以美元為單位的債券,如內地企業的可換股債 券,或者是政府機構的外匯債券選擇較多,可達分散風險之效。不過,上述人民幣基金如未能取得小QFII額度,只可買境外發行的國債或是小量人民幣企債,例 如合和公路(0737),選擇相當有限。
現只有建銀(亞洲)以私人配售方式推出人民幣股票掛鹇票據(ELN),投資者可按個人對個別股票的走勢及表現作預測,從而選擇掛鹇對象,投資金額起碼要50萬元人民幣。若一旦看錯股票走勢,即會錄得賬面虧損,風險極高。
NDF或涉借孖展 留意時間值
以往多為商企買賣的人民幣不交收遠期合約(NDF),是一種無本金交收遠期外匯合約,雙方於合約到 期日時,只需交收雙方議定的匯率與即期匯率差額,而不需交收本金。近日,有銀行將該種產品推至零售層面,以交銀為例,最低入場金額為1萬美元,投資者可選 擇1、2、3、6或12個月的合約期,且可與銀行協議遠期匯率。
浸會大學財務及決策系副教授麥萃才表示,不同的NDF有溢價或折讓,但在人民幣升值預期下,以溢 價為主,雖然入場門檻稍降,但要留意部分可能涉及孖展借貸,而且要留意時間值損耗,合約價值越近到期日就越低。他強調,NDF多數是企業商家用作對沖人民 幣升值風險,當中要付出成本,散戶入場要留意。
【時報-台北電】全球股市大盤下跌,連「股神」巴菲特也遭殃。巴菲特主持的柏克夏海瑟威公司公佈季報指出,上季受到全球股市盤整影響,所投資的衍生性商品產生巨額帳面虧損,造成獲利暴跌40%。
柏克夏海瑟威第2季財報指出,儘管該公司旗下的鐵路與保險等事業表現強勁,仍不敵股票指數衍生性商品的帳面虧損,淨利降至19.7億美元,或A股每股1,195美元。相較之下去年同期淨利有33億美元,每股2,123美元。
芝加哥權威投資研究機構晨星(Morningstar)分析師柏格曼(Bill Bergman)指出,衍生性商品在柏克夏第2季財報中確實是個問題,也明顯反映在最終的損益數字上。
柏克夏所投資的股票指數衍生性商品合約在這段期間帶來18億美元的虧損,信用違約交換則損失3.2億美元。
若排除衍生性合約及投資的損益,其營運獲利則是勁升73%,達到31億美元。巴菲特曾強調營運獲利才能真正反應公司業績。
《永遠的價值:華倫.巴菲特的故事》一書作者吉爾派翠克(Andy Kilpatrick)亦認為,整體而言柏克夏仍舊體質強健,只是因為帳面數字而遭到掩蓋。
柏克夏的衍生性商品投資組合包含與4大股市指數相連、按名義價值計算達359億美元的各項合約,由於4大指數在第2季同現跌勢,自然也就構成其帳面損失。
這批合約大多是由巴菲特在2007年時開始訂立,當時巴菲特即曾示警其現值可能劇烈變化,真正價值須待最後幾年才會浮現。相關合約平均期限為11年。
柏克夏目前尚不需兌現任何虧損,因為巴菲特當初在合約中便明文寫定,唯有這批合約從2018年起陸續到期後,假設屆時指數較最初合約訂立之時為低,柏克夏才需要付錢。
此外合約也未要求柏克夏提供抵押擔保,但6月底時該公司仍為此提列1.73億美元。
標普500指數在4到6月間下挫12%,是1年多以來首見的季度下跌,而柏克夏股價同期則滑落1.5%。(新聞來源:工商時報─記者林佳誼/綜合外電報導)
據悉,深港跨境繳費服務主要面向頻繁往返於深港兩地的銀聯標準卡持卡人,他們可用在香港發行的銀聯標準的信用卡、借記卡支付相關費用。其中,港幣、人民幣及雙幣信用卡繳費業務今日起正式開通投入使用,而港幣借記卡計劃在年內可以使用,人民幣借記卡計劃在2011年使用。
信用卡先行 借記卡稍後跟隨
這樣,在深圳置有物業或登記使用公共事業服務的香港居民,持此類卡即可在香港繳納深圳的多項費用, 如電費、管道燃氣費、天威有線電視費、天威有線寬帶費、中國電信業務費以及中國移動(全球通)和中國聯通的手機費等。跨境繳費的實現,為滿足深港兩地日益 增長的跨境支付需求提供了新的選擇,將更好地服務於兩地的經濟往來和人員交流。
本身也是該商會理事的周生生珠寶金行營運總監劉克斌則表示,未有聽聞該集團旗下分店在今次假金事件中中招。但該集團早前也接獲商會的相關通告,得悉有來歷不明的金飾在本港金行變賣。
劉克斌說,據其了解,今次滲入雜質的金飾,成色也有 93%以上,「只係比正常嘅足金成色低約 7%,都唔算好低」。該集團暫未有計劃停收金飾,「最重要本身件金器真定假,有時啲客戴過有汗或其他配件影響,令金飾成色有少許偏差,咁我哋都會照收」。
不過,該集團上周已向全線分店發出通告,提醒前線員工要特別留意商會提及的特別形狀首飾,「主要都係手鏈、頸鏈,款式都係普通嘅級花手鏈,或者普通嘅圓珠頸鏈,並非龍鳳鈪呢類貴重首飾」。
有金行曾要求顧客帶單據
此外,有業內人士稱另有連鎖珠寶金行曾嘗試要求賣金飾的顧客帶同單據作證明,才肯交易,但由於單據易被偽造,而且首飾若為親友送贈,未必附有單據,對顧客造成不便,最終取消這項規定。金(Au) : | 51.08% |
銥(Ir) : | 20.85% |
鋨(Os) : | 18.75% |
釕(Ru) : | 7.82% |
鐵(Fe) : | 0.87% |
鎳(Ni) : | 0.32% |
銅(Cu) : | 0.25% |
銠(Rh) : | 0.24% |
由於高科技假金中,含黃金量仍達五成或以上,令人懷疑涉案者會以此洗脫罪名。
不過律師黃國桐卻指出,八四年港府頒布《黃金及黃金合金標註法令》,已規定飾金的含黃金量,必須達百分之九十九點九九,故客人到金行出售金飾,法律上已假設他知道成色達到法定水平,若成色不足,可被控行騙罪,最高刑罰監禁十四年。
黃國桐提醒市民,如欲出售早於八四年前購入、或長輩留下的舊金飾,必須向金行說明,並要求檢驗成色,方可避免法律責任。