2012年9月28日 星期五

Traveling With Precious Metals

唔好帶金銀幣進出美國, 好大機會俾美海關充公 !


By Robert E. Bauman
Offshore Confidential
Imagine you are docilely going through the long security line at John F. Kennedy International Airport, headed for your overnight flight to London Heathrow. As your carry-on bag goes through the X-ray, a burly TSA agent is called over to confer with the machine operator. He then looks at you and says: "Please come with me, sir."
As you are led to a small cubicle, you nervously try to think of what you might have done wrong. While you open your bag as instructed, the stern-faced TSA agent points to a small package and demands to know what it contains. Inside are antique, collectible gold coins that you intend to sell to the same British dealer from whom you bought them years ago, but now they are worth much more.
Now the agent says: "I'm sorry, sir, I will have to confiscate them, but I will give you a receipt. You have the right to file an appeal."
You stand there dumbfounded, the whole purpose of your journey destroyed.

Safely Transporting Your Coins or Precious Metals

Serious problems can arise when gold or silver coins (or any precious metals) are transported personally out of the U.S. to other countries by auto, airplane, boat or public transportation - or the reverse, when entering the U.S.
In May 2010, the Houston reported that U.S. Immigration and Customs (ICE) agents and Border Protection officers at Houston's George Bush Intercontinental Airport confiscated more than $250,000 in cash and almost $160,000 in gold and silver in 14 separate seizures from individual travelers during that one month alone.
At the time, I checked with several precious-metal experts and none had ever heard of government agents doing what these ICE agents did. It was news to them - and to me. And Houston, of course, is one of many international airports and entry and exit points in the U.S. So those figures could be multiplied many times over.
Because of the confiscations that already have occurred, I urge you not to travel with precious metals in any form, including coins. Any border crossing with more than $10,000 or more in U.S. dollars or foreign equivalent in any form must be reported on U.S. Customs Declaration Form 6059B. If you're moving U.S.-issued gold or silver coins, some advisors claim that you need to declare only the face value; $50 for a one-ounce gold Eagle, for instance, but that may cause trouble. Your friendly Homeland Security Administration agent isn't likely to be terribly sympathetic to this argument, and just might seize your coins.
Also, when you arrive in your intended foreign country you may face another Customs gauntlet. However, if you declare the gold as "cash," you'll hopefully be permitted to proceed.
If you must personally carry coins, my advice is to contact the nearest office of the U.S. Customs and Border Protection Agency, well ahead of travel, and explain what you propose to do and ask them how you can conform to the law. You should ask for and receive a written response so that you can show it if questioned by ICE agents. Also ask Customs if you need to notify them of your date and departure flight as a precaution against the very real possibility that a local Customs agent at the airport may not know the rules that cover this situation.
You will need to complete and bring with you a Census Bureau Form 7525-V, Shipper's Export Declaration. This form is required for exported commodities with a value exceeding $2,500. At current silver and gold prices, many coins would exceed this reporting threshold. Failure to file this declaration can result in seizure. The consequences for stating incorrect information are severe, including confiscation. They may also result in a fine of up to $10,000 and/or imprisonment.
If you have difficulty dealing with the U.S. Customs office, call the office of your local Member of the U.S. House of Representatives or one of your U.S. Senators and ask for their assistance. They should be pleased to help you.
There probably will be reporting formalities and Customs duties payable when you enter a foreign country. Most require you to fill out, sign and submit Customs Declarations upon entry, asking if you are importing currency or the equivalent. You should contact your destination country's embassy or consulate here in the U.S. to determine how they deal with silver and gold imports or exports.
Don't give them any definitive identification or travel information in case they put you on a travelers watch list.
If you intend to import gold or silver coins from offshore, it is advisable to hire a U.S. customs broker in advance of your travel. The customs broker can appraise the value of the coins and arrange for payment of the foreign country's Customs or other goods and services taxes. Your local FedEx or UPS office can advise you about how to contact customs brokers in your area. Of course, you should also bring with you proof of your ownership of specific coins or precious metals, as well as a statement of appraised value from a recognized appraiser.
[An even better way to avoid the dangers of transporting your gold and precious metals is to keep them stored overseas to begin with. For his Offshore Confidential subscribers, Bob Bauman is constantly doing due diligence on the best places to safely and legally keep your money overseas, as well as retirement and residency strategies to help you find a secure future around the globe.

南非礦業動盪升溫 銀價料跑贏黃金


【本報綜合報道】近期美國聯儲局再推量化寬鬆措施(QE),各國央行近年亦不斷囤積黃金,加上南非金礦工人大罷工;市場人士對貴金屬、特別是黃金及白銀的 價格未來的走勢仍充滿信心。分析指金價今季表現有可能是兩年以來最佳;對冲基金則看好銀價,相信未來三季銀價會跑贏金價。近期最影響貴金屬價格的因素,相信是銷售額位列世界第三的黃金生產商AngloGold Ashanti宣佈,因數萬名工人罷工而停產,意味南非礦業動盪局面將進一步升溫。


今次是當地採礦公司於1994年結束白人統治後,遇到的最嚴重危機。AngloGold Ashanti稱,南非國內3.5萬員工當中,大部份已罷工,工人不接受傳統的勞資調解機制。該公司在南非的產量佔其今年上半年產量的約三分一。
有 分析指,抗議將加劇投資者擔憂。消息指,自上月起位於南非的鉑金礦帶勞資糾紛正在蔓延,同時已鼓動了另一家於倫敦上市的公司Lonmin工人近期抗爭力度 加大。據悉,罷工目前涉及勞動力最密集的金礦及鉑金礦領域,但市場擔憂將蔓延至其他礦業。SBG證券分析師David Davis表示,黃金採礦業正「迅速陷入僵局」,非法罷工的蔓延「可能席捲整個行業」。
連跌三個交易日後,黃金價格周三首度回升,有指金價在今季 將出現逾兩年來最大升幅,除南非金礦罷工外,全球投資者與各國央行都因QE3及環球經濟下滑而湧入黃金市場。據資料顯示,各國央行仍持續買金,其中中國去 年向北韓購入逾兩噸黃金,而南韓更於7月份增加黃金儲備達30%。


現貨金價昨再升近1%,最高曾見每盎斯1768美元;金價上周五觸及2月底以來高位1787美元,與6月底比較已上升近一成,令今季有望出現自2010年 次季以來最大季度升幅。有技術分析指,金價短線調整後,市場等待下一個壞消息或央行推寬鬆措施令金價衝上1800美元。
據 美國商品期貨交易所數據,押注商品價格上升持倉自6月以來勁升十倍,投資者第三季在交易所買入717.2公噸市值7.72億美元商品期貨產品,創一年新 高。銀價昨再升逾1%,最高報34.401美元。




去LPM 好驚啊, 還諗住搵日同老公去行下 !


【本報訊】全港最高建築物(ICC)環球貿易廣場,2樓通往「天際100」香港觀景台的其中一部升降機,昨晨發生故障突然停頓,兩名遊客被困40分鐘才獲 救,事後驚魂未定在網上留言:「嚇死我了!」


廣場2樓共有四部升降機通往「天際100」香港觀景台,昨晨11時許,兩名遊客乘搭其中一部升降機,準備以60秒直登100樓,但至10樓左右突然停頓, 兩人被困。香港觀景台發言人稱,升降機承辦商迅達升降機(香港)有限公司的駐場人員,於接報後即時到場處理。
發 言人稱,升降機系統基於安全設計,該停止運作的升降機改為手動程序,其間控制室人員一直透過對講機與兩位乘客保持溝通,花了約40分鐘終在10樓將兩位乘 客救出,他們並無受傷。發言人稱對於今次事件深表抱歉。事後職員立即向兩人提供飲品及座椅休息,再陪同他們繼續前往天際100參觀。今年3月,ICC升降 機承辦商亦被揭涉嫌違規,沒有向機電署報告ICC其中一部升降機未關門便上升的事故。

2012年9月27日 星期四


樓市已行緊牛市三期, 所以已無人驚樓價會跌, 只恨自己買唔到樓, 還叫政府快些起多些樓和壓低樓價 !


樓市進入瘋狂狀態,是當前本港最熱門的話題。2012年9月5日筆者舉辦了一個小型研討會,邀請施永青及曹仁超向39位與會的財經界朋友,發表有關樓市的 演講。曹仁超說本港樓價沒有下調空間,施永青當日則指出本港樓市有調整壓力,但調整幅度可能只有4%至5%。筆者看法比較悲觀。樓價飛升影響民生,已必須 正視。2012年9月20日沙膽虹於《蘋果》專欄說:
「升 得高的終於都會低墮,資產價格始終會下跌,泡沫必會爆破,但摸頂永遠最困難,沒有人知道頂在哪裏,直至見頂後大跌才知道!目前樓價天天創新高絕不正常,但 不正常的狀況可以維持一段時間,問題是多久而已!香港經過這次繁榮之後,可能有排衰,若然美國經濟見底復蘇,美國瘋狂關水喉,美國亦唔會理得香港人死活, 到時資產價格可能跌到七個一皮。投資者或置業人士惟有自求多福。」
「任 何投資或商品都不可能長期脫離經濟現實及買家的負擔能力,任何資產泡沫都有爆破的一天。2006年的時候,絕大部份投資者預期美國樓市明天會更好。上世紀 80年代末日本房地產市道最瘋狂時,東京天皇御苑所在的一小片土地的地價就足以買起加州。但殘酷的事實說明,樓價地價絕不會長升長有,資產泡沫也不會無止 境膨脹。一旦泡沫爆破時,走避不及的買家及投資者將會損失慘重,整體經濟也久久難以復原。當前香港樓價因非理性亢奮及恐慌再次急升,意味樓市泡沫正快速膨 脹至難承受的地步,爆破的風險也隨之而增加。像這樣的市況怎能不是危機四伏呢?」


客 觀因素分析,以樓價及收入中位數的比率衡量,全球最昂貴城市當中,香港獨佔鰲頭,其餘澳洲佔了五席,加拿大佔兩席,見附圖二。香港、澳洲及加拿大樓價急升 都是中國人熱愛置業造成的不合理現象。澳洲及加拿大地大人稀,樓價飛升,不是泡沫是甚麼?香港樓價趨於泡沫化更是昭然若揭。


假手機真電槍 電暈人劫掠


【本報訊】真、假手機變兇器,港人又要小心了!近年在內地公安極力打擊下,沉寂一段時間的電槍打劫、傷人案又再度出現,事緣電槍變成了手機,一部65萬至 120萬伏特電壓的手機電槍,可以肆無忌憚地握在手中,成為隨意傷人的兇器。《蘋果》記者在深圳店舖直擊偽裝諾基亞手機的電槍,同時亦發現,iPhone 都變成了電槍。

「呢部諾基亞手機型勁啲;有成120萬伏特。」50歲店主霍太從其消防器材商舖暗格中拿出四部手機型的電槍時說:「iPhone先得65萬伏特,冇乜威 力。攞咗貨冇人要就退番去。」


「65萬伏特至多可以電暈一隻狗,但電人就只會麻痹;120萬伏特就唔同啦,可以電暈人囉。」霍太滔滔不絕地向記者講解電槍的威力時說:「你睇似唔似諾基 亞N95呀;就算你攞響手行街,都冇人估到係電槍啦。」霍太強調,該款手機電槍銷量甚好,故鐵價不二,180元一個。
過 往內地及本港發生多宗涉及電槍案件,本港警方在行動中亦撿獲多款不同的電槍,但從未撿獲手機型的電槍。05年,網上曾流傳一名港人在廣州被人用諾基亞 6150手機型電槍搶劫的案件,言之鑿鑿,但未能證實真偽。至今年1月至5月,內地發生多宗電槍傷人劫案後,類似短訊又透過手機WhatsApp流傳,內 容指有不法之徒向路過的港人搭訕,指新買的手機不會操作,藉故問路人「部機點開㗎?」,希望港人教開機,港人不虞有詐被人電暈,身上財物盡失;有人更報 料,指在荃灣亦發生同類事件,令市民人心惶惶。


理工大學機械工程學系工程師盧覺強指,汽車的火嘴只輸出4萬伏特,人觸及就會感到麻痹;電槍是高電壓低電流,所以一個成年人若被120萬伏特的電槍擊中, 心臟至少會停頓一至兩秒,人因此而暈倒,就算迅速蘇醒也因身體麻痹、虛脫而難有反抗能力;若心臟病患者被擊中,分分鐘喪命。

投資者入市審慎 金價需整固或調整


歐美之後日本央行亦宣布擴大購買資產規模10萬億日圓,大家表面繼續以貨幣政策來刺激經濟,實情是貨幣貶值競賽,歐洲央行有沖銷機制,日本有其獨特因素仍然 會吸引資金流入,因此短期仍然是美元受壓機會較大,但從基本面卻是歐元區最弱,而且是否通過央行買債就能解決歐債危機?央行自己都認為不可能,指出透過財 政改革方為正路,但過程將痛苦而漫長,恐怕享受慣福利主義的西方國民不易亦不願接受,總之債息高企情況可以短期獲得紓緩,但不代表危機已過,大家仍然要小 心,步入10月相信西班牙及希臘問題將逐步明朗化,短線維持1.28/1.33區間上落,低位可吸納但高位不宜急進。

由歐洲央行開啟放水序幕至今兩個多星期,市場氣氛確實有好轉,但投資者入市態度相當審慎,相信是吸取了美國QE1及QE2之後市況發展的經驗,而且 歐洲央行亦未入市買債,大家都採取較為觀望的態度。過去兩次QE的藥力可以說越來越快消散,因此今次除了央行指明吸納的資產會肯定受投資者追捧外,其它的 會是見步行步的居多,由於實體經濟表現有相當的不確定性,特別是中國的情況較難預估但影響性甚大,因此股市也好、原材料商品也好,不宜過份樂觀,仍然有明 顯優勢的還是黃金白銀,貨幣購買力下跌跟潛在通脹風險皆有利金銀,加上受到供應的限制,基本因素亮麗已吸引資金重新蜂擁流入貴金屬市場。上星期五金價已至 1787美元,跟對上兩個重大高位1791及1803美元只是一步之遙。無疑金銀早已擺脫以前岌岌可危的下行之勢,技術走勢已大幅轉好,但短期似乎有可能 需要整固甚至深度調整,始終1800美元的阻力有相當的重要性,調整應是給予大家低位買入的好時機,相信近期低位1750美元跟20天平均線的1724美 元會是最接近的支持位,筆者更希望能在1680/1700美元之間買入,不過現時距離尚遠,可留意市況變化,尋找低位吸納的機會。


MACD 已向下, 調整市

RSI 高低位在 70-30, 而依家去返 60, 可以去返 30 但唔一定, 可以彎個腰又升返去 !
陰陽燭在 Bolinger 通道頂行緊好耐, 所以會向下行去到通道底, 但也不一定, 可以去到中間線就反彈 !

所以圖表只是用來參考, 而唔可以信到足, 因為走勢都係估估下 !

圖來之 www.kitco.com

2012年9月26日 星期三

RAID!! Gold Smashed to $1738


Gold and silver were greeted with waterfall declines on today’s COMEX open, as surprisingly, gold received the brunt of the cartel’s attack.
Silver was smashed from $33.90 under $33.25, while gold was driven down more than $25 in minutes from $1765 to $1738.

Now that the metal’s upward momentum has stalled after large rallies over the past few weeks, the cartel is throwing everything but the kitchen sink at the futures market to keep silver under $35 and gold under $1780.

An inverse head and shoulders formation has already formed in the wake of the attack on silver:

2012 Crux Southern Sky 1oz Proof Silver Coin

Silver Content (Troy oz)     1
Monetary Denomination (AUD)     5
Fineness (% purity)     99.9
Minimum Gross Weight (g)     31.135
Maximum Diameter (mm)     39.62
Finish     Proof
Mintage     10000
Mint Royal Australia Mint
Designer     Aaron Baggio
Package     Presentation case with custom-designed shipper for vertically lifted, with COA

The Crux constellation, otherwise known as the Southern Cross, is among the smallest and brightest of the eighty eight modern constellations. One of the most visible features of the southern night sky, its name is the Latin word for cross as it is predominantly a cross-shaped cluster. Its famous shape now adorns Australia's first domed coin, crafted by the Royal Australian Mint.

This innovative dome-shaped coin is packaged in a presentation tin. The insert for the case has been designed in such a way that the coin can be presented standing upright for all to see.

點解東西倒轉咗 ?

是因為自己訓在地上望天空, 北在頭頂, 南在腳下, 左手是東而右手是西, 所以東西倒轉了 !

2012年9月25日 星期二


早排搵到的假金條, 來源來之一間中國鎢廠, 原本用來當導具, 竟然俾人當真金賣 !

(好多月前見到大陸有間商埸展出金條俾人偷走, 報導說, 五條金條只有一條是真金條)

所以大家買實金實銀要小心, 唔想買到假野 :

1. 唔好買太大塊的實金實銀, 就算買到假野都無咁傷 !

2. 買新上市產品好過買好流行的舊款式, 因為新上市無咁快有假野(2012中國1盎司銀熊貓沒上市已有假, 而 PM 2012 1盎司銀龍在半年後都出假幣, 所以PM可能防假唔俾沒上市的幣流出圖案), 所以第一時間由可靠來源買到的新幣是安心好多的 ! 少有的新款式更加可靠, 但唔可以在 ebay 買從來沒見過的款式, 而賣家又有大量貨賣  !

3. 多留意網上訊息, 避大量買入已知有假貨的款式, 就算價錢好優惠 ! YouTube 有好多 fake silver coins 影片 !


Yesterday news broke that at least 10 tungsten filled 10 oz PAMP gold bars have been discovered in Manhattan’s jewelry district.

Apparently Louis Vuitton & Coach bags aren’t the only thing being counter-fitted by the Chinese, as thanks to Microsoft translator, SD has discovered a Chinese firm SPECIALIZING IN PRODUCING TUNGSTEN FILLED GOLD BARS & COINS!!

Not only will the firm openly mint fake gold coins and bars, but they will apparently mint them to order by request!: ‘Chinatungsten could offer gold-plated tungsten alloy coin by different gold with engraving or stamping. Clients can forward their own design, then Chinatungsten could design and make mold accordingly
The firm states that the fake gold coins and bars are ‘only for gift, present, handicraft, and never could be used for any illegal purpose‘ .  Yes, obviously the fake gold products could never be used fraudulently because they kindly ask their customers not to use their tungsten filled gold products illegally.

The firm explains how fake gold bars are made, and goes so far as to claim that tungsten gold has many advantages over gold, which we suppose is true for those wishing to scam others into purchasing fake gold.

內地人收地 天平山村民被迫遷

乜內地人, 香港人 ? 

香港在沒俾英國管時, 是中國土地, 而一個邊境, 就把新界分開咗, 其實兩邊地本來是同鄉 ! 就好似釣魚台是中國的一樣 ! 

好多寶安藉人都是本來住深圳, 而好多後代都來咗香港生活成六十幾年或在香港出生, 就如本人老公家族 ! 而佢地祖先在新界(本來是中國)買咗地, 不過經幾代人後, 好多後生都唔多理或業權有少少爭拗, 搞唔清要點分法, 所以擱置咗好多年 ! 

現香港政府收地, 當然地主後代人會去同政府搞手續, 而名當然是阿爺名, 所以變咗大陸人收香港地 !

所以沒知真相的人, 以為去支持用緊人地的村民是好正義 !


【記者鄭啟源報道】政府新界東北發展計劃,令村民慘變犧牲品。被納入規劃的粉嶺北天平山村,區內原居民地主原來早於發展計劃公佈前,已組團帶內地人到村內 買農地,內地資金早已在區內「落釘」。政府對發展區的發展模式猶豫未決,更加速內地人地主收地。有在天平山村居住超過50年的村民,昨遭執達吏臨門迫遷, 大嘆︰「真係俾政府害死,唔通要瞓天橋底?」

入稟敗訴 有理說不清

天平山村村民何寶鵬從小在村內生活,父親一輩在60年代從內地偷渡來港定居,在村內過着耕住合一的生活。何寶鵬的兩名子女均在村內出生,現與母親及懷孕七 個月的妻子,同住在一萬呎的地皮上,50年來從未有地主收租。
何 家堅持地權由家人擁有,選擇與地主對簿公堂,入稟申請逆權侵佔,「住咁多年都冇人收租,家塊地無端端有個登記地址係深圳寶安區嘅大陸地主」。惟在上訴庭 上,上水圍前村長廖駿駒供稱,數十年前曾與何父定下年租600元的口頭租約,何被判敗訴。何寶鵬無奈說︰「家父去世已20年,根本有理說不清。」

2012年9月23日 星期日


報紙已開始大大版寫, 而也見到兩位好心網友走去親子王國教媽媽買實金和推展我地幾個講金講銀網誌, 所以來緊大家已進入銀行難買到實金時代啦 !


【本報綜合報道】環球央行相繼放水刺激經濟,令市場憂慮通脹升溫及美元轉弱,推動現貨金價格連升5周至近7個月新高;市場預期金價的升勢未完,其中巴克萊 資本預期金價將於第四季升至每盎斯1810美元。不過,油價表現則未受推動,紐約期油下跌4日後雖見回升,但仍未能收復本周初的失地,兩類商品走勢兩極。
美 國聯儲局推出第三輪量化寬鬆措施(QE3),另歐洲央行及日本央行亦推出放水計劃,以刺激經濟。投資者紛紛買入黃金,以對冲通脹及弱勢美元,推動黃金需求 及價格,現貨金周五收報每盎斯1773.1美元。Atyant Capital基金經理Pratik Sharma表示,由於各國政府注入大量資金刺激增長,通脹憂慮重燃,投資者轉投黃金市場。


市場普遍預期金價升勢未止,其中巴克萊資本預期,現貨金將於第四季升至每盎斯1810美元,而2013年平均價格更升至每盎斯1860美元。巴克萊指,黃 金相關的交易所交易產品持有黃金續創新高,加上實際負利率情況持續,吸引投資者轉投黃金市場,支持金價上揚。

2012年9月22日 星期六

Greyerz - Gold, Silver, The US, Europe & The Tungsten Scare

世界經濟暗淡, 所以大家更加要儲實金實銀, 低溢價金銀條又好, 靚靚金銀幣又好, 只要可以保財富和購買力 !


Today Egon von Greyerz spoke with King World News about  the US, Europe, the tungsten scare, what is happening in the gold and silver markets and what to expect from the latest rounds of QE.  Greyerz, is founder and managing partner at Matterhorn Asset Management out of Switzerland.

Here is what Greyerz had to say:  “I just wanted to say a few words because we’ve had another tungsten scare.  Physical gold is the best way to protect investors from the destruction of their wealth.  This is the ultimate form of wealth protection.”

Egon von Greyerz continues:  

Now there are many things to consider.  You should only have physical, and you must buy from reliable sources.  We’ve seen many of these tungsten scares, and in our view you should buy gold from within the LBMA system.  That is a guarantee for getting real gold.

I know many people inside the LBMA system and no one has ever seen a tungsten bar within that system.  We certainly have never seen a tungsten bar.  What we do regularly is melt down bars for clients.  Clients that purchase the 400 ounce LBMA gold bars will ask for them to be made into smaller bars.

If we get hyperinflation and gold goes up the way we think it will, you don’t want to have the big bars.  You want to break them down into smaller units.  So we regularly send bigger bars back to the refiners to melt down, in order to get smaller bars for the clients....

“In all the time we have been doing this we have never, ever had a problem with the quality of a gold bar.  But smaller bars such as one ounce units are good to have.  Also, be very careful about storing gold at home.  This is something to consider with the amount of crime we are going to see going forward.

Don’t store it at banks either.  The gold can either be encumbered, which we have seen, or not be there at all.  We have had many cases where the gold that banks were supposed to be storing for their clients, even in ‘allocated’ accounts, was not at the banks.  They just didn’t have it.

We have gone to move ‘allocated’ gold out of accounts at banks and the banks simply didn’t have it.  So banks are dangerous when it comes to the storage of gold.  Then you have the problems we have seen at MF Global and Sentinel, where the banks have used client assets, which was supposed to be segregated, to actually finance their trading lines.  So investors have to be careful, and make sure they purchase their gold from reputable sources.”

Greyerz also added: “The action in gold has been very good.  We are going to have one of these moves which is going to be relentless to the upside.  Gold and silver will just go up, consolidate, and continue going up.

Today we had a little bit of volatility.  We made new highs, and then corrected a bit, but that’s just minor.  The trend will continue.  In euro terms, gold is at a new all-time high.  It is very significant that gold is making new highs in the euro. 

If gold finishes the day with good strength, it will obviously be a new weekly closing high as well.  Silver will continue to outperform gold, but in a much more volatile fashion.  So investors in silver have to exercise patience, and continue to ride the trend, regardless of how many bumps in the road they experience.

I would also like to add that a couple of days ago we had Japan’s decision to come out with a massive QE package.  That really completes the round of all of the central banks.  We had been saying for quite some time that there would be coordinated action, and that’s exactly what we have seen take place.  They all made their moves within a week of each other.

So we’ve had the Fed, the ECB, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan, all coming in with additional QE.  Other countries like India and Sweden have also come in with stimulus.  So this is worldwide and it is concerted action.  This was the only thing they could do to save the system, but in the end they are not going to be able to save the current system.

No one is capable of cutting their deficits.  Spain is now having a structural reform package.  Austerity doesn’t work.  The people won’t have it.  Instead they will throw out the governments.  So Spain, being bankrupt, is going to get more money, and this is how it will continue in country after country.

Greece is the same.  Italy, they are having massive problems.  The US is now on their third round of QE, but the third round of QE is not going to help the economy at all.  The US is lending unlimited amounts of money and charging nothing for it.  This sounds like a new ‘Goldilocks’ economy.  It sounds wonderful, but it doesn’t work because the money you are lending is becoming worthless.

In 2008 the world printed, guaranteed or lent $25 trillion.  We did see a couple of years of a bounce after that, but that bounce is over and everything is now turning down.  This time what are they doing?  They are actually issuing more fake money.

They are just printing money by pushing a button and doing it electronically.  If you look at the central banks balance sheets, just in the last five years, the UK balance sheet is up four and a half times, same with the Swiss.  The Fed and the ECB’s balance sheet is up over three times, and that is nothing compared to what they will do in the next few years.

The only thing this will lead to is not an improvement of the economy, it will lead to a collapse of the currencies and a hyperinflationary depression.  The protests will get much worse as the economies turn down and unemployment increases.  This will create massive problems, that is a major concern for all of us, Eric.”


金價阻力 1780, 而銀價阻力 35 !
呢次是第二次衝, 可能要等第三次先能企穩阻力位之上 !



【本報綜合報道】有「債王」之稱的PIMCO聯席投資總監格羅斯(Bill Gross)認為,除非美國失業率降至6%,否則聯儲局不會終止新推出量化寬鬆措施(QE3)。他又指,聯儲局、歐洲央行及日本央行相繼開閘放水,將引發 高通脹問題,籲投資者改變部署,轉移高增長的發展中國家,增持抗通脹債券,以及短線投資實質資產。

料失業率見6% QE3才結束

格羅斯周四出席加州一論壇時表示,聯儲局主席伯南克上周宣佈推出QE3,以每月400億美元購買機構按揭抵押證券(MBS),此舉猶如簡易版的「滴流效 應」經濟(trickle-down economics)。他表示,聯儲局期望股市上升,同時迫投資公司離開國債債市,轉投高息債券;高收益投資者則轉到股票市場。
格 羅斯指,儲局目前根本不打算退出QE3,因為伯南克曾表示,若QE3無效就會有更多措施。他相信美國失業率回落至6%,QE3才會結束。此外,歐洲央行及 日本央行亦先後推寬鬆措施,美國經濟將步入通脹周期,估計未來數年通脹料屆乎3%至3.5%之間。格羅斯認為,債務危機不能單靠「開機印銀紙」解決,並指 歐央行和聯儲局放水行動,只能刺激通脹多於經濟。
雖 然格羅斯指QE3引發高通脹,但同時他亦是QE3最大受惠者。聯儲局決定無限量購買MBS前,格羅斯管理的太平洋投資管理(PIMCO),大幅重組旗下總 回報基金的資產分配,並於上月減持三分一美國長債,並持近五成MBS。


此外,「末日博士」麥嘉華(Marc Faber)預測,美國經濟在QE3之下步向衰退的機會是「百分百」,並會觸發超級通脹問題。

2012年9月21日 星期五



香港文匯報訊  根據台灣健康部門一項調查顯示,台灣人罹患牙周病比例高達99%,成為亞洲比例最高的「嘴最髒」地區,牙醫師就警告,十之八九都是挑錯牙刷惹的禍,刷毛太 硬,刷牙方式不當,才導致牙齦萎縮、牙齒磨耗,甚至有人貪小便宜,直接把飯店附贈的便宜牙刷帶回家,結果刷出一口問題。



2012年9月20日 星期四

Embry - We’re Witnessing A Historic & Frightening End Game


Today John Embry gave a stunning interview to King World News.  In it he made some rather frightening predictions.  Embry believes, “... we are in the early stages of a global ‘Weimar’ event.” Embry stated, “This is very historic what’s happening here,” as we have now entered “the end game.” 

Here is what Embry, who is Chief Investment Strategist at Sprott Asset Management, had to say:  “I think the attempts to restrain the gold and silver prices here are the most intense they’ve been in the last 15 to 18 years.  This is because we are now in the end game.  Everybody has now stated they will have QE to infinity.”

John Embry continues:

“We started the money printing in Europe, then the US followed, and today Japan has now joined the counterfeiting spree.  The Chinese are also in trouble.  Their economy is far weaker than anybody acknowledges.  So on a worldwide basis we are in the early stages of a global ‘Weimar’ event.

This is remarkably bullish for gold and silver.  So consequently, in order to just kick the can down the road, these guys are engaging in a historic suppression of both gold and silver....

“You can see evidence of this in the blowout of the open interest in gold on the COMEX. 

Also, the open interest on the TOCOM, over in Japan, they are really shorting that market as well.  There is a big blowout in the open interest on the TOCOM.  There has been a massive increase in the open interest, a lot of shorting there as well, the levels are the highest they’ve been in the last four years.

As I said earlier, we are truly in the end game now.  We are coming up to the fiscal cliff in the United States, there are no solutions in Europe, China’s economy is imploding faster than anybody wants to acknowledge, and Japan is a train wreck.  These are all signs that we have now entered into the end game.

The money printing is absolutely essential to keep the end game from occurring yesterday.  There are two aspects to this.  The banking system is for all intents and purposes bankrupt.  But more importantly, if you superimpose the virtual banking system on top of the already bankrupt banking system, there is no other option but for central planners to print money into the hereafter to try to keep the system from totally collapsing.

Remember the virtual banking system is monopolized by the stunning quadrillion dollars worth of notional derivatives, many of which are not worth the paper they are printed on.  This is astoundingly bullish for precious metals, but incredibly bearish for virtually the entire rest of the world.”

Eric King: “John you mentioned the massive shorting that is taking place in both the gold and silver markets.  Obviously there could be a spasm higher, but at some point the commercials are going to try to harvest that money by smashing the price of both gold and silver.”

Embry: “Absolutely.  That’s a very good point, Eric, because I’m always nervous when the COMEX open interest blows out by almost 100,000 contracts like it has over the past three or four months in gold.  That has always been a condition in which players become fearful about what is going to happen to the gold price in the short to intermediate-term.

But on the other hand, there is always this possibility of a commercial signal failure, where the commercials get overrun.  This time there is so much interest in physical buying, around the world, that any attempt to smash the price and eliminate the paper longs out of the market is going to be used as an opportunity for the physical buyers to step in and accumulate. 

This does limit the downside.  But having said that, I am always uncomfortable when the open interest has gone up as much as it has.  In the fullness of time, this price suppression scheme will be seen as one of the stupidest things the West has ever done.”

Eric King:  “Is the West destroying itself with this gold price suppression policy?”

Embry:  “I’d like to say no, but I’m afraid I can’t really, in all honesty, say that.  There’s an old adage that ‘gold goes where the wealth is being created.’  And the wealth is not being created in the West anymore.  We’re consuming ourselves into bankruptcy. 

The money and the wealth are being created in the East, and that’s where the gold is going.  This is very historic what’s happening here.  The West is losing more and more of their gold reserves to the East.  We are about to publish a piece here at Sprott titled, ‘Do Western Central Banks have any gold left?’  I wonder how little they have left?

People believe there are 30,000 or so tons of gold in the Western central bank vaults.  I don’t think there is even a fraction of that left.”

Embry also warned:  “The world’s largest bond fund manager, Bill Gross, he’s finally come out and said, ‘Look, you’ve got to buy gold and real things.’  He said, ‘This thing is going down the path of the destruction of money.’ 

If Bill Gross says something like that, people should pay attention.  But I don’t think many people are listening.  Before this is over, this end game concludes, this is going to be the greatest wealth transfer in the history of mankind.”

2012年9月19日 星期三



Last March, SilverDoctors broke news that quickly went viral throughout the PM community that a tungsten filled gold bar had been discovered in the UK.
Apparently Manhattan jewelry dealer Ibrahim Fadl caught the SD story, because he apparently decided to drill into his 10oz PAMP Suisse gold bar because he had heard rumors of tungsten filled gold bars.   Rather than $18,000 worth of gold, Fadl discovered a beautiful $10 slab of tungsten.
Fadl ‘had heard counterfeit gold bars were going around, so he drilled into several of his gold bars worth $100,000 and saw gray tungsten — not gold. The bar was filled with tungsten, which weighs nearly the same as gold but costs just over a dollar an ounce.
We now have our 2nd official confirmation of tungsted laced gold, and while still not a 400oz London bar, we seem to have a more professional counterfitting situation on our hands.

The local FoxNY broke the story tonight:
What makes so devious is a real gold bar is purchased with the serial numbers and papers, then it is hollowed out, the gold is sold, the tungsten is put in, then the bar is closed up. That is a sophisticated operation.
MTB, the Swiss manufacturer of the gold bars, said customers should only buy from a reputable merchant. The problem, he admits, is Ibrahim Fadl is a very reputable merchant.
Raymond Nessim, CEO Manfra, Tordell & Brookes, said he has reported the situation to the FBI and Secret Service.
The Secret Service, which deals with counterfeits, said it is investigating.

2012年9月18日 星期二

新加坡 2012 Giant Panda 1oz Silver Proof coin


Silver Coin Story 搞呢隻精製熊貓銀幣團購, 認購價 830 HKD

如果自己上網訂貨, 運費高和 PayPal 收費和匯價都高, 所以呢個價是超值 !

有意認購可以去 e-mail Ivan 認購 : silvercoinstory@gmail.com

因為唔夠數, 所以團購暫時停辦, 等有機會先買呢隻幣 !

2012年9月16日 星期日

Texas School District To Begin RFID Chip Tracking Of All 100,000 Students


Northside Independent School District plans to track students next year on two of its campuses using technology implanted in their student identification cards in a trial that could eventually include all 112 of its schools and all of its nearly 100,000 students.

District officials said the Radio Frequency Identification System (RFID) tags would improve safety by allowing them to locate students — and count them more accurately at the beginning of the school day to help offset cuts in state funding, which is partly based on attendance.
Northside, the largest school district in Bexar County, plans to modify the ID cards next year for all students attending John Jay High SchoolAnson Jones Middle School and all special education students who ride district buses. That will add up to about 6,290 students.
The school board unanimously approved the program late Tuesday but, in a rarity for Northside trustees, they hotly debated it first, with some questioning it on privacy grounds.
State officials and national school safety experts said the technology was introduced in the past decade but has not been widely adopted. Northside’s deputy superintendent of administration, Brian Woods, who will take over as superintendent in July, defended the use of RFID chips at Tuesday’s meeting, comparing it to security cameras. He stressed that the program is only a pilot and not permanent.
“We want to harness the power of (the) technology to make schools safer, know where our students are all the time in a school, and increase revenues,” district spokesman Pascual Gonzalez said. “Parents expect that we always know where their children are, and this technology will help us do that.”
Chip readers on campuses and on school buses can detect a student’s location but can’t track them once they leave school property. Only authorized administrative officials will have access to the information, Gonzalez said.
“This way we can see if a student is at the nurse’s office or elsewhere on campus, when they normally are counted for attendance in first period,” he said.
Gonzalez said the district plans to send letters to parents whose students are getting the the RFID-tagged ID cards. He said officials understand that students could leave the card somewhere, throwing off the system. They cost $15 each, and if lost, a student will have to pay for a new one.
Parents interviewed outside Jay and Jones as they picked up their children Thursday were either supportive, skeptical or offended.
Veronica Valdorrinos said she would be OK if the school tracks her daughter, a senior at Jay, as she always fears for her safety. Ricardo and Juanita Roman, who have two daughters there, said they didn’t like that Jay was targeted.
Gonzalez said the district picked schools with lower attendance rates and staff willing to pilot the tags.
Some parents said they understood the benefits but had reservations over privacy.
“I would hope teachers can help motivate students to be in their seats instead of the district having to do this,” said Margaret Luna, whose eighth-grade granddaughter at Jones will go to Jay next year. “But I guess this is what happens when you don’t have enough money.”
The district plans to spend $525,065 to implement the pilot program and $136,005 per year to run it, but it will more than pay for itself, predicted Steve Bassett, Northside’s assistant superintendent for budget and finance. If successful, Northside would get $1.7 million next year from both higher attendance and Medicaid reimbursements for busing special education students, he said.
But the payoff could be a lot bigger if the program goes districtwide, Bassett said.
He said the program was one way the growing district could respond to the Legislature’s cuts in state education funding. Northside trimmed its budget last year by $61.4 million.
Two school districts in the Houston area — Spring and Santa Fe ISDs — have used the technology for several years and have reported gains of hundreds of thousands of dollars in revenue for improved attendance. Spring ISD spokeswoman Karen Garrison said the district, one-third the size of Northside, hasn’t had any parent backlash.
In Tuesday’s board debate, trustee M’Lissa M. Chumbley said she worried that parents might feel the technology violated their children’s privacy rights. She didn’t want administrators tracking teachers’ every move if they end up outfitted with the tags, she added.
“I think this is overstepping our bounds and is inappropriate,” Chumbley said. “I’m honestly uncomfortable about this.”
Northside has to walk a tightrope in selling the idea to parents, some of whom could be turned off by the revenue incentive, said Kenneth Trump, president of National School Safety and Security Services, a Cleveland-based consulting firm.
The American Civil Liberties Union fought the use of the technology in 2005 at a rural elementary school in California and helped get the program canceled, said Kirsten Bokenkamp, an ACLU spokeswoman in Texas. She said concerns about the tags include privacy and the risks of identity theft or kidnapping if somebody hacks into the system. Texas Education Agency spokeswoman DeEtta Culbertson said no state law or policy regulates the use of such devices and the decision is up to local districts. source – My San Antonio

Embry - We Are Seeing Mounting Shortages Of Gold & Silver


With gold on the move once again, today John Embry told King World News, “I’m still of the mind that we will be in record territory before year end.”  Embry also said, “We did our bit by buying another $392 million worth of gold for the Sprott Physical Gold Trust.” Embry spoke about silver, “I’m wildly bullish on silver.  I don’t think the physical market has ever been this tight.”  

Here is what Embry, who is Chief Investment Strategist at Sprott Asset Management, had to say:  “I think the action is positive, but at the same time I’m infuriated by the continued interference with the markets by the powers that be.  There is tremendous manipulation going on in both gold and silver right now.  Two days before the QE announcement they dropped the price of silver about $1.50 in a nanosecond.”
John Embry continues:

“It’s the same games being played by the same people, and it’s going to end horribly because all the manipulation is doing is creating wonderful buying opportunities for the Chinese, the Russians, and the rest of the central banks that know full well what’s going on.

In the fullness of time, this group of manipulators will be seen to have eclipsed the blunders and the folly of the original London Gold Pool....

“I’m still of the mind that we will be in record territory before year end.  I don’t see any abatement in this monetary easing.  Now that the Americans and the Europeans have shown their colors, it won’t be long until the Japanese are going to have to do something.  They are drowning because their currency is infinitely too high.

The Japanese are going to have to go to the printing press as well.  So this is a global phenomenon, and this is very supportive, over time, of dramatically higher precious metals prices.  You have a perfect confluence of tremendous fundamentals.  You’ve got mounting physical shortages of the metals.  We did our bit by buying another $392 million worth of gold for the Sprott Physical Gold Trust.

But nobody owns gold and silver outside of the true believers, and the sentiment is remarkably negative considering how positive things are at this point.  If you look at the longer-term charts, they are spectacular.  They are supportive of dramatically higher prices. 

The fuse was lit yesterday, but the bottom line is the manipulators will try to keep the gold and silver markets trading in a counterintuitive manner in order to keep as many people away from these markets as possible.”

Embry also added:  “Jeff Christian appeared on Canadian BNN on Monday, which is the Canadian version of CNBC, and Christian had the unmitigated gall to say that he didn’t expect there would be any quantitative easing of any significance when Bernanke came forward, and the commodity complex would be crushed.

He suggested that everybody short gold and silver and everything, and he was looking for $1,550 on gold.  How long does this guy get a free pass?”

Embry had this to say about silver: “I’m wildly bullish on silver.  I don’t think the physical market has ever been this tight.  I see ever greater demand for precious metals, and more and more of it will go to silver because gold will become increasingly expensive.

Consequently, I see the gold/silver ratio declining precipitously, which means if gold is going a lot higher, silver is going to rise multiples of the gold increase.  So I couldn’t be much more bullish.”

Embry has this to say regarding the mining shares:  “Finally the mining shares have rallied.  We had been saying they were grotesquely oversold, and you know my view that it was not natural selling.  There was financial repression, in a huge way, going on in that sector.

Now the unnatural selling we have seen is starting to be relieved.  If I’m right on my gold and silver call, and I’m confident I am, the explosion in the share prices is going to be historic.”

2012年9月15日 星期六

限按30年 殃及上車客


香港文匯報訊(記者 顏倫樂、黃嘉銘)金管局昨推三項調控措施,首度針對買第二套房的人士。金管局統計指,兩個以上未償還貸款宗數一般佔整體未償還貸款宗數約30%至40%, 截至7月底數據統計為佔36%。以地產代理資料計算,今年首7月涉「二套房」按揭宗數約2萬宗。業界指,此舉雖有效壓抑投資需求,但36%的統計基數還包 括樓換樓、商廈等的按揭,實際影響範圍其實不多,加上買第二套房的買家實力相對較強,措施打擊這批投資者的成效有限;反而將按揭年限由40年收緊至30 年,則連首次置業人士亦受影響。

投資者彈藥足 影響有限 

 美聯物業首席分析師劉嘉輝表示,金管局今次主要針對收緊多過一個物業的按揭貸款申請上限,對首次置 業及樓換樓的用家影響不大。目前樓市主要以用家及長線投資者為主,不少長線投資者實力較強,有充足資金入市,措施對他們影響有限。不過,部分實力較弱的長 線投資者可能因新措施而卻步,故預期二手物業交投將減慢。 

防危險族上車 學者讚好 


 關焯照並指,用家如果選擇於現在換樓,其實只是「貴賣貴買」,問題不大,但若再買一個單位投資,則 需提防泡沫風險。他強調,息口有周期性,一旦上升將面對更大危機。而目前已存在資產泡沫的問題,市民需有危機感,目前樓價是年薪的17倍,應降至10倍, 或供款數額佔月薪40%以下方為健康及安全的水平,他補充,若果按照20年來平均利息水平計算,現時的供款數額已經高達月薪的77%。

美轉嫁危機 QE3流毒新興國


美國聯儲局前日結束議息會議後,宣布推出無限量的第三輪量化寬鬆(QE3)政策,雖令市場大為鼓舞,但通脹風 險亦隨之增加,令期油及黃金等避險資產價格急升。巴西政府批評美國此舉是將自身問題轉嫁至其他國家,衝擊發展中國家及新興市場經濟;有專家亦指,QE3恐 引發貨幣貶值戰,造成通脹壓力,長遠而言可能弊多於利。

新一輪印鈔或達3年 涉萬億美元 

 有經濟學家指出,QE3可能長達3年,令規模趨近2008年QE1的水平,達上萬億美元。另外,有 指當買長債、沽短債的「扭曲操作」在年底到期後,當局或會視情況擴充計劃,在按揭抵押債券(MBS)外加買國債。伯南克強調,假如政府無法解決明年初來臨 的「財政懸崖」,美國將被迫自動增稅削支,負面影響將大得連QE3亦無力抵銷。 

 量寬措施料推升市場的通脹預期,利好黃金等避險資產,紐約期金前日收報每盎司1,772美元,創 近7個月新高,較前一日升2.21%。市場憂慮QE3恐引爆通脹,令10年與30年期美債孳息率差距一度擴大至1.21個百分點,創近一年來新高;對通脹 較敏感的30年期債息一度升8基點,報3厘,為5月以來最高。 

紐元韓圜急升 創半年新高 


 市場預期經濟向好,帶動原料需求上揚,由24種商品組成的標準普爾GSCI指數前日一度升至 689.22點,創4月5日以來新高,亦是連續6個交易日上揚。分析認為,QE3有助刺激投資者趨向高風險投資,大量資金因此湧入石油及股票等領域,推高 價格。紐約10月份期油收報每桶98.31美元,升1.34%;10月份布蘭特期油收報116.9美元,升0.81%。

 聯儲局前日公布經濟預測,下調今年美國經濟增長介乎1.7%至2.0%,低於6月尾時預測的 1.9%至2.4%,但上調明年及後年的經濟預測,預計明年增長2.5%至3%,高於先前預測的2.2%至2.8%;2014年增長為3至3.8%,多於 先前估計的3%至3.5%。

 美國財政部前日公布數據顯示,上月聯邦政府財赤為1,905億美元(約1.5萬億港元),2012 財年首11個月的財赤總額達1.16萬億美元(約9萬億港元),雖低於上個財年同期的1.23萬億美元(約9.5萬億港元),但已是連續第四個財年突破萬 億美元大關。 


2012年9月14日 星期五

$150 Silver & An Ocean Of Paper Money To Flood The System


Today acclaimed money manager Stephen Leeb told King World News, “There is no doubt that the Fed is going to print hundreds of billions of additional dollars.”  Leeb also said, “They (the Fed) will have created multiple trillions of dollars and it won’t stop.”  Leeb also said that in this environment, “... silver is easily going to $150.”

But first, here is what Leeb had to say about the situation in Europe: “I think the German high court decision was expected.  It won’t have any effect on Europe’s ability to reflate.  Bond purchases will take place, and Europeans now recognize they are all interrelated.  If something happens to any of those big economies, Spain, Italy, etc., they all go down.”

Stephen Leeb continues:

“That’s a big deal, Eric.  That’s the big takeaway from the last couple of months.  Europe, they are going to be creating a great deal of money.  The implications for precious metals, gold, etc., are very, very positive.  They’ve printed a ton of euros already, but guess what?  The euro today, at 1.29, is higher by about 5% vs its average since the beginning of the century.

This is with Europe experiencing tremendous problems.  Now what does that say about the US dollar?  It says that it’s a terrible currency....

“If our currency is underperforming the euro, it means there aren’t any other (paper) currencies you can turn to.  And if there are no paper currencies you can turn to, you have to turn to gold.

I don’t know if gold is going to shoot up to $2,000 in the next month, but I know that the direction over the next several years is going to be dramatically higher.  The bottom line here is that the dollar has underperformed the euro, even with all of the problems Europe faces, and that does not bode well for the future.

There are very serious reasons why the dollar has underperformed.  Data released today showed that median incomes in the US have fallen about 10%, and median income for the middle class have probably fallen by about 12% to 13%.  Almost 50 million people in the US are now on food stamps. 

So the Fed is forced to print more money, and the more they print, the stronger the case for the precious metals becomes.  Also, I keep bringing up the junior gold shares, but I believe they have already started what will be one of the greatest, if no the greatest bull market of our lifetimes.  I also think silver is easily going to $150.

Circling back to Europe, their money printing is only going to accelerate.  So you will start to see higher commodity prices impacting overall inflation rates.  As that begins to unfold, you will really see the bull markets in the gold and silver bull markets accelerate.

Investors should ask themselves, how much do I have to invest in gold, silver, and the quality junior gold and silver shares, so that I can cover up all of the other investment mistakes I might make?  And to make sure I have plenty left over if inflation does go to 10% or 15% per year.  That is the question all investors should pose to themselves at this point.”

Leeb also added: “There is no doubt that the Fed is going to print hundreds of billions of additional dollars.  A hundred billion dollars here and there and before you know it you have $1 trillion.  They will have created multiple trillions of dollars and it won’t stop.  And Investors should understand that it’s going to continue.”


佢幾時開始睇好黃金 ?


「對 香港有甚麼影響呢?」經濟關係,有時雖然是間接,一樣可以好大影響。香港經濟,教科書都有講,屬極度開放形;影響最大的因素,莫過於滙率。所以,世界局勢 一亂,香港資產價格插水,除了一般所講的「信心動搖」;另外一個解釋,就是因為美元滙率上升帶來的自然調節。


當前的地緣政治的緊張氣氛,屬冷戰後首次。不過,暫時為止,美元仍然在非常低的水平。其中一個原因,相對美元的最主要貨幣歐元,有冲銷的寬鬆下,變相增加 美元的供應。悲觀一點看,表面上風平浪靜的投機市場,其實是掩飾了箇中的風險因素。
作 為一般的散戶,坦白講,可以做的事情不多。就算我們保得住資產,收入也未必保得住。不過,原則上,分散資產,增加流動資產的比例,減少負債以及借貸,策略 上錯不了。從這個方向想,持有一定的現金和黃金,雖然保守,但永遠都必要。就算從進取的角度想,也應該留點子彈待機出擊吧。阿拉伯國家的問題,恐怕只會繼 續劇化。已經40年沒有重要武裝衝突的遠東,情緒也緊張起來。歐洲各國又有極端地方及民族主義抬頭。別忘了,各國的經濟環境仍然疲弱。悲觀點,準備充份 點,是負責任的做法。


美推無限期QE 每月購債3102億


美國聯儲局於香港時間今日凌晨宣布,推出新的第三輪量化寬鬆(QE3)政策,以不設期限方式進行,每月購買 400億美元(約3,102億港元)的按揭抵押債券(MBS),直至就業市場顯著改善。聯儲局又維持息口在零至0.25厘不變,並將超低息政策期限從 2014年底延長至2015年中期,又會繼續推行「扭曲操作」至今年底。
 QE3出台的消息帶動美股昨日中段顯著上升。道瓊斯工業平均指數中段報13,459點,升126 點;標準普爾500指數報1,448點,升11點;納斯達克綜合指數報3,149點,升35點。歐股個別發展。英國富時100指數收報5,819點,升 37點;法國CAC指數報3,502點,跌41點;德國DAX指數報7,310點,跌33點。
 聯儲局公開市場委員會(FOMC)發聲明指出,將緊密注視未來數月的經濟發展,若就業市場沒顯 著改善,將繼續購買MBS和其他資產,並採取其他適當的政策工具,直至在維持物價穩定的情況下,達到改善就業的目標。至於資產購買計劃的規模、速度和資產 的組合,則視乎相關措施的效果和成本而定。
 美國勞工部昨公布,上周新申領失業救濟人數為38.2萬人,較對上一周增加1.5萬人,多過市場預 期的37萬人。4周移動平均數則升至37.5萬人,是7月中以來高位。當局指,受颶風「艾薩克」影響,令新申領人數增加約9,000人。上月生產價格指數 較7月上升1.7%,高於市場預期上升1.2%,撇除食品及能源價格波動的核心指數則升0.2%,符合預期。
 一些經濟學家則認為,聯儲局資產購買計劃的有利影響是間接的。Decision Economics, Inc.行政總裁西奈表示,資產購買計劃對市場信心、資金成本、家庭財富效應和資本增值的主要影響,會借助於美國股市體現出來。



美國聯儲局主席伯南克任期於2014年1月屆滿,但投資者仍押注接近零息政策將延續至伯南克任滿後翌年。「美 元隔夜指數掉期」(OIS)顯示聯邦基金利率在2015年中前不會上升,而美國2年期及5年期債息差距,比2008年以來平均值減少逾50%,反映市場預 期基準利率將維持不變。


Fed Pulls Trigger, to Buy Mortgages in Effort to Lower Rates

金銀股匯大反彈 !


The Federal Reserve fulfilled expectations of more stimulus for the faltering economy, taking aim now at driving down mortgage rates.
The Fed said it will buy $40 billion of mortgages per month in an attempt to foster a nascent recovery in the real estate market. The purchases will be open-ended, meaning that they will continue until the Fed is satisfied that economic conditions, primarily in unemployment, improve.

Enacting the third leg of quantitative easing will take the Fed's money creation past the $3 trillion level since it began the process in 2008.
"The Committee is concerned that, without further policy accommodation, economic growth might not be strong enough to generate sustained improvement in labor market conditions," the Open Market Committee said in a statement. (More: Read the Fed's Full Statement Here.)

In addition, the Fed said it will continue its program of selling shorter-dated government debt and buying longer-term securities, a mechanism known as Operation Twist. It also will continue its policy of reinvesting principal payments from agency debt and mortgage-backed securities back into mortgages.
The Fed left its funds rate unchanged at near-zero but offered one change in that regard, saying the rate would stay at "exceptionally low levels" until at least mid-2015.

2012年9月13日 星期四




2012年9月12日 星期三


睇來要修定 RSI !


圖來之 恒生銀行

外幣愈升愈高, 所以外國金銀幣都會變貴 !

有平貨就好買啦 !

2012年9月10日 星期一

Gerald Celente - Gold, Silver & A Major October Surprise

小心十月市 !!


Today top trends forecaster Gerald Celente told King World News, “They (central planners) are going to destroy the money, and they are going to do everything to try to keep the gold and silver markets down.”  Celente warned about a major “October surprise.” He cautioned, Anything could happen at any time. There are a lot of wild cards, and in a wild card environment like this, I want gold and I want silver ... on Friday, I just bought (gold) again.”

Celente is the founder of Trends Research, and the man many consider to be the top trends forecaster in the world.  Here is what Celente had to say:  “What’s shaking out is that the European Central Bank, in their arcane language, has basically said, ‘We are going to buy up all of the worthless sovereign debt that Italy, Spain, Ireland, Portugal, and any other country in the eurozone that gets in trouble, we will continue to buy up that worthless debt.’  Now where are you going to get the money?”

Gerald Celente continues:

“‘Well, we stole it all from the people already through austerity measures.  They don’t have much to give us anymore.  I tell you what we’re going to do, get those printing presses rolling.  That’s right, heat them up and let them go.’  They said they are going to do it continually to keep propping up the falling eurozone from collapsing.

You can listen to the French President, Hollande, and the British Prime Minister, Cameron, even though the UK is not in the euro, they are pushing for more worthless bond buying as well....

“So as long as they keep printing money abroad, and at home, gold prices keep going up. 

You look at the jobs being created, they are poverty level or barely making it level jobs.  What you are going to see at all levels is lower wages.  So regardless of whether the prices are going up, wages are going to keep going down, and it’s going to cost you more to buy whatever you need.

So what are they doing in the states?  They are all talking QE3.  It’s all getting ready for the elections.  So what they are going to do is they are going to do their best to make things look good before the election.

They are real concerned about an October surprise.  An October surprise, not necessarily terrorism, but a financial crisis.  This thing is unraveling worldwide.  Now they are talking about going back on the gold standard.  Just talking about it.

But even that they are talking about it is significant.  I believe, depending on what happens on Thursday (with the German high court decision), if there is a crisis in Europe, I think you are going to start hearing more and more about a gold standard.”

Celente also added: “They (central planners) are going to destroy the money, and they are going to do everything to try to keep the gold and silver markets down.  You see what’s going on in India, how they are making it more and more difficult for people to buy gold because the rupee is collapsing.

So the governments around the world are going to do everything they can to stop people from buying (gold).  Anything could happen at any time.  There are a lot of wild cards, and in a wild card environment like this, I want gold and I want silver.  And I have to tell you, on Friday, I just bought (gold) again.” 

2011 Niue Island Love Forever 1oz Proof Silver Coin

Country Niue Island
Mint New Zealand Mint
Metal.999 Coloured Silver
Finish Proof
Diameter 40mm
Edge Milled Milled
Denomination  $2
Year of Issue  2011
Mintage  20,000

見到 Silver Pocket Club 會再去 NZM 買第二批的風水魚, 就乘機叫旺旺和 Samuel 幫手買呢隻銀幣, 因為有中文字, 好岩中國人 ! Samuel 說可以做到的優惠唔多, 所以唔打算搞團購, 而只收本人成本價 850蚊 !

大家如有興趣, 可以問 SPC 或 SCS 可否訂貨, 不過因為新西蘭幣升咗, 可能價錢會高些 !

2012年9月9日 星期日

澳洲 Perth Mint 蛇年1盎司銀幣

澳洲 Perth Mint 2013 蛇年1盎司銀幣, SPC 賣 330蚊, 而 SCS 賣 338蚊, 現兩間都存貨已賣完; LPM 和 Kitco 價格跟隨銀價上升中 ! 好彩 SPC 和 SCS 都醒目一早買定貨益咗網友買到平貨 !

因為高 spot 唔係太多, 所以呢些銀幣可以當投資幣來儲 !

澳洲 Perth Mint 2001 蛇年1盎司銀幣(第一期生肖銀幣), 700蚊2011年在旺角東洋買, 而呢隻就要當收藏幣來儲啦 !

Mint of Poland 925銀幣

Lucky Coins – Ladybird

Face value:    1 Dollar New Zealand Legal Tender
Metal:    Ag 925
Size :   41.00 mm
Weight :   28.28 g
Mintage :   Up to 10,000 pcs
Issuer  :  Niue Island
Quality:    Proof
Decoration:    pad printing, shiny flower and filigree insert
Date of issue:    November 2011
Country: Niue Island
Mint: Mint of Poland
Box: No
CoA: Yes

銀幣用 capsule 裝住, 可以從卡上面取出來另存 !
特別之處是, 在銀幣中有個小膠盒, 內有小小蟲仔, 可以自由活動 !
在 Silver Coin Story 買 559蚊 !

APOLLO Butterfly Parnassius Silver Proof Coin 1$ Niue 2010 斑貉灰蝶
Country Niue
Year 2010
Face Value 1 Dollar
Metal Silver
Fineness (purity) 925/1000
Weight (g) 28.28
Diameter (mm) 38.61
Quality Proof
Mintage (pcs) 8.000
Certificate (COA) Yes
Presentation case (box) No
Mint Mint of Poland

LARGE BLUE Butterfly Silver Proof Coin 1$ Niue 2011 大藍蝶
Face value    1 Dollar New Zealand Legal Tender
Metal    Ag 925
Size    38.61 mm
Weight    28.28 g
Mintage    Up to 8,000 pcs
Issuer    Niue Island
Quality    Proof
Decoration    Pad printing
Date of issue    January 2011
Mint Mint of Poland
Certificate (COA) Yes
Presentation case (box) No

Gollath Ornlthophera Silver Proof Coin 1$ Niue 2012 翼鳳蝶

波蘭蝴蝶銀幣用 capsule 裝住, 有証書跟隨, 無特製盒裝 !
在 Silver Pocket Club 買 600蚊, 而綠色蝶 550蚊 !
買咗因為覺得蝴蝶靚 !

呢些925銀幣愈出愈多, 買來當收藏幣還可以, 不過用來投資就要買低些溢價的幣啦 !
大家如有興趣, 可以問 SCS 或 SPC 有無貨 !

當初是 Kitco 先推出來賣, 不過價格高, 所以本人無諗住要買, 之後 SCS 推出來, 平成百幾蚊一枚, 所以唔買好似好輸蝕, 所以最後選兩款來買 !

2012年9月7日 星期五

Gold & Silver EXPLODE on NFP to $33.50 and $1730!!


Gold and silver just made their best Old Faithful impersonations on this morning’s NFP disappointment, as bad news is now good news for the chances of Bernanke announcing unlimited QE next Thursday.
Silver EXPLODED VERTICALLY to $33.50, a full $1.50 move higher from it’s overnight lows.  Gold exploded to $1730, a full $50 from it’s overnight lows.

As we recommended last night during the sell-off, all corrections are being met with MASSIVE PHYSICAL BUYING, and we recommend responding immediately to corrections by backing up the truck and STACKING THE SMACK!!

金價升穿1700 半年最高





美國1700萬饑民 左右大選



 共和黨總統候選人羅姆尼前日拉票期間,將申領食物券人數創新高的問題,歸咎總統奧巴馬的經濟政策。 他表示,奧巴馬任內令華府總負債由10萬億美元(約77.6萬億港元)飆升至16萬億美元(約124萬億港元),同時令申領食物券人數急增1,500萬 人。羅姆尼稱,這兩個「大數字」顯示美國人在這4年來生活都沒有變好。  


2012年9月6日 星期四



【本報訊】Wi-Fi上網方便快捷,原來市面一款台灣出產的Wi-Fi解碼器,利用強力天線及軟件,也可以「方便快捷」盜用他人Wi-Fi密碼上網,若被 人進行不法用途,Wi-Fi戶主分分鐘一身蟻。警方昨掃蕩深水埗鴨寮街兩個檔口,拘捕兩檔檔主,起獲33套非法解碼器。記者:黎家駒 歐文瀚

警方兩個月前接獲情報指,鴨寮街有專門出售電子產品的檔口,疑非法出售Wi-Fi解碼器,用可覆蓋近千米的強力天線及軟件非法盜取他人Wi-Fi密碼以供 使用,鑑於首次出現有關問題,警方向律政司徵詢法律意見後,昨下午3時許派人放蛇,兩名探員假裝顧客,分別在兩個檔口購得有關解碼器。


在人贓並獲下,探員表露身份當場拘捕兩名分別姓雷及姓林檔主,兩人同42歲,涉嫌觸犯「有犯罪或不誠實意圖而取用電腦」罪名被捕。行動中警方共撿獲33套 解碼器,兩檔出售不同型號,其中一檔每套售價400元,另一檔每套則售900元,包裝盒均標明台灣出產。據悉,涉案兩檔出售該解碼器約兩個月。

劉 續稱,有三個方法防止遭人盜用Wi-Fi,一是路由器(Router)的SSID模式中隱藏個人電腦(IP)地址;其二是設定密碼時刁鑽一些,編排一個包 含英文、數字及符號的複雜密碼;最後是MAC位址上多做工夫,其實每部電腦都有一個IP位址,每個網絡位置會有一個專屬於它的MAC位址,設定只接受住所 內電腦的IP位址,拒絕其他非這些IP位址的電腦使用其Wi-Fi。根據本港法例,觸犯有犯罪或不誠實意圖而取用電腦,經定罪最高刑罰可判監五年。

食杯麵重口味 洗腎度餘生

一茶匙咁多 ?

本人煮野食已少用鹽, 改用生抽和老抽調味(已夠鹽份), 而口味都比以往清淡好多 ! 也已戒咗好多 junk food 如可樂、薯片 !


香港文匯報訊  中新網電:

65歲的鄭女士年輕時偏愛重口味,辣椒、沙茶醬是她的最愛,每隔兩三天就以泡麵果腹,加上少喝水。某次健康檢查,發現尿液潛血,診斷後才知罹患 慢性腎臟病,須洗腎度過下半生。台灣「國泰」醫院腎臟內科主任馮祥華說,都是重口味飲食害了鄭女士,島內洗腎患者至少有七萬人,且每年以五六千人的速度持 續增加,患者的特色之一就是口味「重鹹」。


2012年9月4日 星期二

Turk - A Remarkable & Historic Breakout In Gold & Silver


Today James Turk told King World News, “This breakout (in gold and silver) is very important historically because it is not only ushering in the next great move in the metals, but it also signals the beginning of the next leg of the destruction of fiat money.” Turk also said, “Given that silver is still in stage 1, the media attention won't begin until silver hits a new record high over $50 per ounce, and I think this is coming in just a few months.”

Here is what Turk had to say: “Even though the US is closed for the Labor Day holiday market, Eric, gold and silver are on fire over here in Europe. Silver has hurdled $32 while gold looks ready to take on resistance at $1700, which is a key level the bears have been defending since last March.”

James Turk continues:

“This breakout in gold and silver over the last two weeks is exactly what we have been expecting and waiting for. It is very bullish that we are seeing good follow-up buying from last week's strength. Some of that mountain of money sitting on the sidelines is coming into the market, but so far it is only a trickle.

That will probably soon change to a torrent as people come back from their summer holidays and realize that the interrelated sovereign debt and bank insolvency crises have not gone away....

“So things are falling into place for new record highs in both gold and silver within the next few months. I expect that gold will make a new record high before the end of the year, and silver's new high will follow soon thereafter.

I updated the long-term weekly silver chart that I have been sharing with KWN readers to illustrate silver's major uptrend. We can see that the huge flag pattern has been broken to the upside, which of course is bullish. This breakout is very important historically because it is not only ushering in the next great move in the metals, but it also signals the beginning of the next leg of the destruction of fiat money.

But this pattern was only of secondary importance to the resistance level I began discussing last October. That level was $36, but given the slight penetration and subsequent reversal back below that level in February, I would now say that the key resistance level for silver is the $36-to-$37 area.

But you will recall my original comment, Eric, which still applies. When that resistance level in silver is finally hurdled, I expect to see $68-$70 in 2-to-3 months.

However, the more important point is a move like that will mean silver is finally entering stage 2 of its bull market. That is when it will really get exciting, Eric. The first stage of a bull market, which is the one we are now in for silver, is always the boring part.

Gold went into stage 2 when it cleared $1,000 a few years ago. Look at the price appreciation it has achieved since that event. Another characteristic prevailing in stage 2 is increased media attention, and that surely applies to gold. It also explains why so few people are paying attention to silver.

Given that silver is still in stage 1, the media attention won't begin until silver hits a new record high over $50 per ounce, and I think this is coming in just a few months.”

 When asked about the mining shares, Turk responded: “In the KWN interview we did a couple of weeks ago, I said that the XAU needs to clear 170 while the HUI has to move above 465. Those levels are now just a chip-shot away. When these resistance levels are finally hurdled, it will be further confirmation that everything is in gear for a major move in gold, silver and the mining shares.

We have been going through a long correction, Eric. But there is now enough evidence emerging to suggest that this correction has ended. So we should be getting ready for some spectacular rocket shots in gold, and particularly silver, over the next several months, taking both precious metals to new record highs.”



< 【本報訊】繼早前推出在廣州地區應用的「嶺南通」後,八達通卡公司與深圳通合作,推出於深圳及香港專用的「互通行」智能卡,限量版3800套卡將於今日起 至本月10日發售。


八達通行政總裁張耀堂表示,「互通行」同樣採用一晶片兩個錢包模式,惟港幣錢包須於香港地區增值,人民幣錢包則要在深圳增值。限量版售價為298港元(香 港購買)及238元人民幣(深圳購買),而在本月11日發售的普通版售價分別為98港元及80元人民幣;首批「互通行」共發行2.5萬張,而嶺南通在過去 兩個月銷量約1萬張。

2012年9月3日 星期一

Gold to Break $1,700/Ounce Level


Gold will break out of a narrow band of trading in which the precious metal has been stuck for 12 months and will head towards $1,700 an ounce or higher as central bank moves and production problems increase the demand for gold, analysts told CNBC.
Priced in euro terms, gold posted its highest close of 2012 on Friday after the Federal Reserve's Chairman Ben Bernanke left the door open for a further round of quantitative easing (explain this) in a highly-anticipated speech on Friday.
As investors pinned their hopes on hints of further QE, spot gold (Exchange:XAU=) rose nearly 5 percent over the past two weeks, hitting a five-month high of $1,692.71 on Friday, a rise of up to $40.
Gold has risen 70 percent between December 2008 and June 2011, after two rounds of QE by the Fed totaling $2.3 trillion, according to Reuters.
Phil Roberts, technical analyst at Barclays Capital told CNBC that while central banks in Europe and the U.S. don't act to further stimulate their economies, gold remained attractive as a safe haven.
After a 12-month consolidation phase, we should expect the gold price to continue on its upwards trend, he said.
"Last Friday, priced in euro terms, gold posted its highest close of the year," he told CNBC, emphasizing his point on an "Ichimoku Cloud", a chart used in technical analysis which identifies market trends and direction.
"What we're seeing now is gold pushing against the top of the cloud (above the middle of the range) pushing beyond $1,700 an ounce and there's another 100 dollars to the topside quite easily," Roberts said.
"This is a good time for gold," he added, agreeing with analysts' predictions that a breakout for precious metals was imminent.
"There is one more level to break out, a couple of retracement levels and the top of the weekly cloud [to break out], but once you get above that $1,700 level you've got a bit of clear water and there should be some follow-through."
Ned Naylor-Leyland, Investment Director at asset management firm Cheviot, told CNBC he was surprised at the rally, but believed it would continue.
"Personally, I was a little surprised at the size of the move but it's now in technical breakout mode."
Gold's rebound in the face of further monetary stimulus, still 20 percent off highs seen in 2011, has been forecast as short-lived, though Naylor-Leyland disagreed for several reasons.
"I'd say the rebound is just starting," he said. "If you look at the charts we're literally just back into a technical rally phase. In fact, we haven't been solidly for a year...so let's see where we go from here."
He added that the higher gold price would also be sustained by the rising costs facing mining companies in terms of extraction and wage labor costs.
"There's no doubt there's a big problem. Input costs have been rising [and] the gold price hasn't kept up with it...The marginal cost of production is not at all helpful for the major gold producers [as well as] wage input problems for the big companies."
Speaking about a potential return to a gold standard - to link the dollar (Exchange:.DXY) to gold - that the Republican party are making a part of their policy (a standard that was last axed by President Nixon (link)during the oil crisis in 1971) Naylor-Leyland said it would need serious consideration and could "open up a can of worms untouched for 40 years".

2012年9月2日 星期日
















2012年9月1日 星期六


金銀價似已突破, 後市睇好 !

金支持位在 1680, 而銀 31 !

PM 重鑄問題

原來驚咗一排都多餘的, 因為以下網指出, The other sizes (1/2oz, 2oz, 5oz, 10oz) are unlimited in mintage, but production ends at the end of the year they are dated,

所以在金銀幣發行年完結後, 唔會再出新鑄的, 公斤幣除外 !

笑翠鳥重鑄是因為早排, 限量發行的 300,000 沒達標, 所以新鑄鑄夠限量額 ! 2011年和2012年的笑翠鳥發行量是 500,000, 不過2013年的笑翠鳥發行量會加大去到一百萬枚 !


The Lunar Series Gold & Silver Bullion Series Coins (Year of the Snake) will come with the usual 30,000 limit for 1oz Gold coins and 300,000 limit for 1oz Silver, although as pointed out on my blog they have used Privy Marks to work around these imposed mintage limits. The other sizes (1/2oz, 2oz, 5oz, 10oz) are unlimited in mintage, but production ends at the end of the year they are dated (2013), except for the kilo bullion Snake which can be produced until the Series 2 Lunar Coin set is finished later this decade.
The Kookaburra Series Bullion Coins are minted in various sizes, the 1oz coin is limited to 1,000,000 this year, where in 2011/2012 it was limited to 500,000 and 1990-2010 it was limited to 300,000 coins. Earlier this year to the dismay of collectors who weren't aware of Perth Mint's ability to do so, they started re-minting previous years up to their set limit, I covered this on the blog here. While you can continue to buy this earlier years (which have mintage less than a third of the 2013 coin) it would make more sense to be buying these while they are available.

The Koala Series Bullion Coin is unlimited in mintage, but can only be produced up to the end of the year it's dated, so once they've announced the final mintage for the year you know it won't change. Earlier years have started attracting a premium due to the low number minted, but 2011 saw sales go mental (as covered on the blog here). Sticking with the lower mintage Lunar & Kookaburra coins while they are available seems like a smarter move than buying the 1oz 2013 Koala whose mintage won't be known until after the end of 2013.