2016年9月30日 星期五

零售寒冬錄18月連挫 8月銷貨值按年跌10.5%

on.cc東網專訊

【on.cc東網專訊】 訪港旅客止跌回升只曇花一現,拖累香港零售業銷售表現在暑假頹勢不止,繼7月跌7.7%後,政府統計處最新公布8月零售業總銷貨值為339億港元,按年下跌10.5%,嚴寒依舊,更是連續第18個月錄得跌幅,再創沙士後最長時間下跌周期紀錄。零售業界相信,本月有中秋傳統節日,又有iPhone 7開售,料下月公布的數據跌幅有望收窄。

統計處又指,扣除期間價格變動後,8月的零售業總銷貨數量的臨時估計,較上年同月下跌12.7%,而今年頭8個月合計的零售業總銷貨數量的臨時估計下跌10.2%。

今年8月與去年8月比較,雜項耐用消費品下跌37.8%,跌幅最大,其次為電器及攝影器材,下跌27.9%,珠寶首飾、鐘錶及名貴禮物的銷貨價值則下跌26.6%。

政府發言人指,8月份零售業銷售的表現仍然欠佳,反映該月訪港旅客數字下跌所造成的拖累,以及市民的消費意欲在經濟前景不明朗的情況下維持審慎,而零售業銷售的前景短期內仍要視乎訪港旅遊業的表現,以及外圍環境的各種不利因素對市民消費意欲的影響。

香港零售管理協會主席鄭偉雄形容8月數據不理想,除食品銷售因今年中秋正日比去年早而受惠外,其他項目全錄得跌幅,連以往表現較穩定的化妝品類別也微跌。對於明日開始的內地十一假期,鄭偉雄認為大家也不要抱太大期望,因為內地旅行團數目較去年少2成,今次十一假期達7日,比往年長,內地客可能改往歐美作中長線遊,因此對香港零售業幫助不大,鄭又相信,零售業總銷售值跌幅未見底,隨時要再多跌12個月或以上才會止跌回升。

旺角先達廣場手機店店主劉志剛指,今年3月至8月的生意十分慘淡,「點止跌咗3成咁少,直頭係跌咗9成」,他指商場亦因生意太少,將租金減半由4萬減至2萬港元,「因為生意真係差咗好多」。劉又補充,9月雖有中秋節及iphone 7開賣,但對生意幫助不大,甚至比預期差,他透露9月生意比之前多了2至3成,但仍沒有以往一半之數。對於十一假期,他坦言有期待但沒有太大寄望,「以前五一、十一好多內地人會落嚟,會特登入多啲貨,但依家少咗好多人」。

夫亡翌日用埋其醫療券 慳家婆婆獲法官開恩

on.cc東網專訊

【on.cc東網專訊】 76歲女子周換珠被控去年12月31日,在將軍澳慧安商場一間醫務所使用他人醫療券,而誘使醫務所向她出售三樽鈣片,導致醫務所蒙受750港元損失。周換珠今日在觀塘法院認罪,獲主任裁判官練錦鴻罕有地無條件釋放。

案情指,被告的80多歲丈夫去年12月30日因病過世,被告見丈夫還有3張醫療券未用,翌日即往診所換來三樽鈣片服用,惟衞生署調查後發現她是用死去的丈夫的醫療券,最終報警將她拘捕。

辯方今求情指,被告為家庭主婦,自從丈夫去世後,現獨居於居屋單位,靠每月2000多港元生果金維生,她有一名40多歲兒子,但兒子現亦失業,被告因為有關節問題,經常服用丈夫用醫療券換來的鈣片,她見丈夫去世後尚有3張券未換,在「唔好嘥」的心態下急往診所換領,在無知下犯了法,她從無刑事紀錄,近80年人生首墮法網。

主任裁判官練錦鴻聽畢案情及求情後忍不住搖頭嘆息,控方一度要求被告賠償涉案750港元的鈣片予診所,練官回應:「公帑嚟啫。」控方遂收回申請,練官想了一會後,最終向被告表示:「無條件釋放,你可以走嘞。」

獨自到庭的被告周換珠婆婆聞判後,一度不知道發生何事,仍呆站庭內,直至記者向她解釋後才明白「咩都唔使罰」,她又一度擔心無法取回700港元保釋金,但其後又自覺「唔好意思攞,算數啦」,後來悉數取回後即驚喜得喜極而泣。

周婆婆在庭外接受訪問,坦言自己「一生無犯過法」,年近80才首次被捕及上法庭,直言:「好驚好驚,未試過,依家仲震緊」,說罷向記者展示不停顫抖的雙手,她表示甘願受罰,承認自己無知「諗住用得唔好嘥」,而判決結果令她喜出望外,不停表示要感謝律師及法官。

控方代表庭外表示,鑑於被告年紀老邁及初犯認罪,辯方的確曾查詢以守行為方式處理本案的可能性,但經諮詢法律意見後,律政司考慮到案件涉及破壞政府福利政策及濫用公帑,故最終決定繼續起訴;不過控方亦指,裁判官可因應個別案件決定是否酌情處理,他承認本案的處理手法是「極少見」。

震撼促銷:君柏推空前12年超長成交期計劃

money18.on.cc

豪宅新盤爭相出籠,長實地產(01113)旗下馬頭角君柏今日推出23伙的全新價單,長實地產執行董事趙國雄表示,是次亦推出空前震撼付款計劃,部分單位可選用Z138先住後付計劃,買家可享總售價折扣達24%,成交期長達12年,買家只須樓價20%首期,180天即可入住,可享138個月先住後付款,期間每月需支付成交金額0.25%,至2028年成交時付成交金額餘款45.5%。

長實地產投資董事黃思聰說,是次價單當中,以1座2樓B室的價單售價為3,323.4萬港元最低,實用呎價19,288元,折實即供售價2,824.9萬元,呎價16,395元。

Financial Capitol of the World & Its Migration

www.armstrongeconomics.com

QUESTION:

I am a great admirer of your Socrates model, but there’s one thing in your personal pronouncements that seem to contain a contradiction. On the one hand you are predicting a decline of the U.S.A. and other western economies, mainly caused by excessive government interference in the economy. However, on the other hand you are predicting a rise in the prominence of China occurring simultaneously with the decline in the Western economies, yet the Chinese economy is still dominated by State-owned enterprises (SOEs) and that is unlikely to change anytime soon. Can you please explain this apparent contradiction?

Also, you (perhaps justifiably) continually put the boot into Western governments for their excessive involvement in their economies and yet you rarely, if ever, criticise the Chinese government’s heavy involvement in the Chinese economy. Why the double standard? Is Socrates is actually predicting a near-term decline in Chinese government involvement in their economy? And is there an allied Socrates prediction for increased democracy in China in the near-term?

Thanks for your great service,
Andrew.

ANSWER:

You are missing the timing and overlap. It is true that the Chinese government is still trying to manage its transition to a free economy. Ultimately, that will happen. However, the difference between the former communist regions such as Europe, Russia, and China, in comparison to Western Europe, such as North America, Australia, New Zealand, and Japan, is significant whereas the former region has people who do not depend on government and the latter still expects government to be there to take care of us until we die. A collapse in government in the former communist regions will not be as devastating to the common people and it would be in the Western developed world. China and Russia learned that Marxism failed. It is simply our turn in the West to experience the same as they did with the collapse of socialism.

After 2032, the financial capital of the world will simply migrate to China. It always migrates. You are assuming that the government of China will survive in its current form. They too will change and alter. In the West, governments are not interested in reform. They are only interested in holding on to power. This is simply how empires, nations, and city-states have always historically failed.
China is moving through its reform stage that began in 1989.95. We should see the first political shake up by 2021/2022. That is simply how long it will take from the beginning in 1989.95. They are simply at a different point in their own cyclical history.

外匯局:中國第2季經常帳順差641億美元

money18.on.cc

外匯局公布,今年第2季度,中國經常帳戶順差4,190億元人民幣(下同),資本和金融帳戶逆差934億元,非儲備性質的金融帳戶逆差3,187億元,儲備資產減少2,255億元。

按美元計價,今年2季度,中國經常帳戶順差641億美元(下同),資本和金融帳戶逆差143億元,資本帳戶逆差1億美元,非儲備性質的金融帳戶逆差488億元,儲備資產減少345億元。

人民幣入籃:IMF成員國怎樣使用SDR?

money18.on.cc

根據國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)的定義,SDR(特別提款權)並非貨幣,而是IMF成員國對可自由使用貨幣的潛在求償權。

換言之,IMF成員國可以用持有的SDR,換取SDR籃子貨幣,即美元、歐元、人民幣、日圓及英鎊,以補充該國的儲備資產。

運作上,可透過成員國之間的自願交換安排,或由IMF指定對外狀況較強的成員國,以可自由使用的貨幣,從有需要的成員國中購入SDR,變相為其提供貨幣流動性。

IMF會據SDR利率,向借款成員國收取的利息,並為提供資金的成員國支付的利息。SDR利率按籃子貨幣,在貨幣市場短期債務工具的代表性利率釐定。

China's Progress Is Killing the Instant Noodle

中國富起來, 少人食公仔麵 !

www.bloomberg.com


A crumpled instant-noodle bowl ground into the mud is an unlikely symbol of economic vitality. But during China's boom years those bowls were as ubiquitous around Chinese construction sites as the high-rise cranes above them.

That was no accident. For millions of Chinese workers, instant noodles were the convenient meal of choice, available for a few cents in every commissary and convenience store. And China's instant-noodle makers prospered. Between 2003 and 2008, annual instant-noodle sales expanded to $7.1 billion from $4.2 billion.
But just as China's economy has slowed, so too has its appetite for instant noodles. Earlier this month, Tingyi, China's biggest noodle maker, was removed as a component of Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index after seeing its noodle profits drop 60 percent. China's instant-noodle sales are down 6.75 percent this year, the fourth consecutive year of decline.

The first problem is demographics. China's instant-noodle makers grew in parallel with an economic boom that was fueled by the migration of low-cost workers from the countryside. But China's working-age population has been in decline since 2010, and in 2015 the migrant population fell for the first time in 30 years. With more workers staying home, the incentive -- and desire -- to eat a prepackaged bowl of noodles was likely to decline, and it has.

There's also the matter of the slowing economy. In 2015, sales growth of inexpensive food and consumer products hit a five-year low, according to a June study from Bain. Declines were particularly steep in products that cater to blue-collar workers, such as cheap beer (down 3.5 percent) and instant noodles -- a phenomenon that Bain partly blames on Chinese jobs migrating to lower-wage countries.

What's bad for noodle makers is great for many others. Rising wages have improved living standards and expectations for millions of Chinese workers. Pay a visit to a southern Chinese factory these days, and the food options are much improved. With employees becoming more scarce, benefits like better food are becoming increasingly important.

China's workers are also able and willing to pay more for their day-to-day needs. According to one recent Chinese consumer survey, half of China's consumers now seek out the "best and most expensive" product. A 25-cent bowl of instant noodles doesn't make the grade.

Then there are health concerns. Instant noodles have developed a nasty reputation in China thanks to scandals and rumors and a 2012 food-poisoning incident. There are long-standing allegations that noodles are contaminated with plasticizers. Legitimate or not, scandals don't help the reputation of a down-market product that's loaded with salt and preservatives.

Even with these problems, instant noodles had the advantage of convenience. Now even that edge is being dulled. The streets of Chinese cities are swarmed by motorcycle and bicycle food-delivery men and women racing to deliver orders that are competitive in price with Chinese fast food. In 2015, the value of those deliveries was $20 billion -- up 55 percent from 2014. Fast, healthier options are just an app away, even for students and factory workers.

China's instant-noodle makers and importers are struggling to re-start growth.

But these days there's competition from South Korea, with its far superior food-safety reputation. One option is to sell noodles to other emerging Asian economies such as Vietnam, where consumption is still growing along with the manufacturing sector. That won't make up for China's shrinking market, but China's new class of consumers don't offer more enticing options.

美勸孕婦避遊寨卡爆發東南亞11國家

on.cc東網專訊

【on.cc東網專訊】 美國衞生官員勸諭孕婦推遲前往東南亞11個國家,因為這個地區爆發寨卡病毒。

旅遊警告目標針對國家為:汶萊、柬埔寨、東帝汶、印尼、老撾、馬來西亞、馬爾代夫、緬甸、菲律賓、泰國和越南。

美國疾病控制及預防中心說,寨卡病毒潛伏東南亞一些地區已經多年,有些居民可能是免疫的。但是,去年很多美國遊客在當地受到感染,因此對遊客構成危險。

考古驚雷 疑似羅馬時代中國人骸骨埋倫敦

on.cc東網專訊

【on.cc東網專訊】 古代文明的交流史一直是一個引人入勝的話題,有英國考古學家近日發表驚人發現,他們宣稱在倫敦薩瑟克區(Southwark)一處羅馬時代墓地所發現的骸骨,其中兩副可能是源自公元2世紀至4世紀的中國。有學者表示,中國文明與羅馬文明的交流遠比想像中密切。

倫敦博物館的考古學家利用先進技術,在葬於倫敦泰晤士河畔旁的22副骸骨中,首次發現其中兩副可能是來自中國,最早更可追溯至接近2000年前。倫敦博物館的考古學家雷德芬(Rebecca Redefern)表示,薩瑟克區在羅馬時代是富裕移民的聚居地,因此當時可能已有中國商人抵達,並定居下來。

不過,雷德芬亦不排除另一可能性,由於羅馬時代奴隸貿易盛行,從中國至印度,印度至羅馬亦有奴隸販賣,因此她不排除兩人可能是奴隸出身。

雷德芬嘗試解釋疑似中國人骸骨出現在倫敦之謎,她稱:「羅馬帝國的擴張,穿越了西歐及地中海,同化了不少部族。羅馬帝國的強大及富裕,令她需要建立貿易連繫,以獲得原材料及產品,連接歐洲、非洲、中國及印度的絲綢之路。大量旅客在絲綢之路作長距離往返,當中既有商人及軍人,亦有奴隸。」

發展至巔峰的羅馬時代,適值是中國的漢代,它是歷史上一個文化及科技璀璨輝煌的時代。

Deutsche Bank – The Meltdown Crisis

www.armstrongeconomics.com

Ten of the large hedge funds are withdrawing from Deutsche Bank. What must be understood here is that Deutsche Bank is the main clearing house for trades in Europe. The problem the hedge funds have is where do they move for clearing? Short-term, they can move to New York or London. With over $60 trillion derivative book at the Deutsche Bank, the government is totally incapable of even understanding how to deal with this crisis. We are looking at a major crisis in confidence.

Merkel is simply out of her mind to adhere to this insane policy of a bail-in. How can hedge funds stay with clearing at Deutsche Bank when she takes this position that would set off a catastrophic global meltdown. It still appears that Merkel will have to blink. Once people realize this is the real crisis, then the German debt market should turn down rather hard.

The pressure is clearly building based upon how my own phone is melting down. This illustration based upon IMF data, illustrates the global contagion. I “BELIEVE” that Merkel will be compelled to blink. We may see an announcement this weekend at the latest where she must address this issue. The implications of a global contagion go far beyond Germany.

Investors in Deutsche Bank are obviously looking to Merkel and whether or not she will step up to the plate here. DB shares have plummeted more than 50 percent this year. The prospect of bailing out Deutsche Bank is particularly a problem when Merkel seeking a fourth term in an election next year. Her view is to hold to what she took as a position. Hence, must the world suffer for her personal political career once again?

The EC attack on Apple has led to a backlash where the US Justice Department in retaliation wants a multibillion-dollar fine from DB. This is also contributing to the problem of DB being in the cross-hairs of US prosecutors who also seek to further their political career not unlike Merkel.

Merkel’s spokesman said the government sees “no grounds” for talk of state funding for DB. This simply cannot stand in the face of a major global contagion. The government would have to step in if Deutsche Bank was really in major trouble and hedge funds reducing exposure are abandoning the bank. You can bet by tomorrow, every bank will be trying to reduce their exposure to DB by the weekend.

John Cryan, Deutsche Bank’s chief executive officer, has come out publicly saying that raising capital “is currently not an issue,” and as far as a bailout from government, he has stated Merkel’s position that such support is “out of the question for us.” This entire crisis is actually set in motion by Merkel who championed to keep taxpayers off the hook in a crisis. She pushed for bail-ins and not bail-outs and this has made it far more difficult for governments to support banks in Europe. The Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive, which is the cornerstone of Europe’s efforts to tackle too-big-to-fail banks, takes the position that the need any such extraordinary public financial support indicates that a firm is “failing or likely to fail,” that will trigger the resolution. Now, support for banks is highly restricted and has devastated Greece, Italy, and Portugal. Consequently, if Merkel now intervenes on Deutsche Bank’s behalf, she is basically saying the law is for everyone else but Germany. That will lead to internal protests within the EU.

Internationally, if Merkel’s governing coalition does not step up to support Deutsche Bank, the political fallout globally will in itself cause a major crisis probably by November.  Clearly, the need for some sort of state intervention would outweigh calculations about the political fallout. Merkel will cause the international chaos if DB fails and it can fail if this bank run continues. DB needs to be restructured but when it is the biggest in Europe, it cannot be merged as a shotgun wedding. Its business must reduce risk for itself and the connection of other banks. The German government could assume a stock investment. The legal restrictions prevents extraordinary support as state aid that would distort competition by favoring one company over another. Under the EU law, the German government could just take an equity stake. That would not be a bailout in the classic terms that Merkel opposed. It must be carried out at current market conditions. They cannot arbitrarily supply money at some agreed upon share price that is away from the market.

One loophole under EU regulation would allow Merkel bailout DB provided it is only to “remedy a serious disturbance in the economy of a member state and preserve financial stability.” This must be only a temporary measure. This would qualify and she can claim that she is following the EU law and it is not different from country to country. However, EU state-aid rules require junior creditors and shareholders to share losses. Therein lies the problem of a global contagion.
If Merkel actually tried to inject government funds into Deutsche Bank or purchase its capital instruments, it may do so only if there is a capital shortfall identified. Still, there must be no advantage to DB from a competition perspective. The interesting problem that would emerge, highlights the clearing crisis. The European Union would then NEED British banks for clearing. In the face of BREXIT, they are not likely to concede that at any time, so there is another nail in the coffin of the euro.

on.cc東網專訊

【on.cc東網專訊】 外媒報道,有「新債王」之稱的DoubleLine Capital行政總裁岡拉克(Jeffrey Gundlach)表示,投資者對金融市場應對金融市場採取防守性取態,因為市場拋售似乎尚未結束。

他續指,其中,德意志銀行的股票及債券或繼續下跌,直至出現一個支持位為止。

Panic In The Kingdom: Saudi Currency, Bonds, Banks Extend Collapse Despite OPEC 'Deal'

www.zerohedge.com

Following Obama's 9/11 bill veto defeat yesterday, and despite a surge in oil prices after a 'deal' was struck by OPEC, Saudi Arabia's markets are signaling panic in The Kingdom. Currency forwards are collapsing, default risk is jumping, and bank stocks are hitting record lows...

Mint's Bill Blain, in his Morning Porridge noted that last nights “surprise” OPEC agreement to agree to agree about talks on cutting oil production is fascinating. Not from the likelihood it may not ever happen, (the earliest we will know is the Vienna meeting in November), but what it tells us about how the sands are shifting around Saudi Arabia. Deliberate Saudi over-production caused the oil glut and was a policy designed to take out expensive US producers.  

Voodoo economics didn’t work – US producers cut and adapted, and the rest of the world hasn’t played along.

Last night’s agreement represents a fundamental shift in Saudi – a wake up and smell the camel-waste moment. The result is the kingdom is suffering rising twin deficits amounting to over 20% of GDP. As global oil revenues have tumbled on the back of crashing prices, Saudi faces a cash and spending crisis for which it’s largely unprepared. Social issues are mounting. The elites “salaries” have been slashed. It’s being forced towards the international debt markets – a massive deal is on the new issue stocks. My colleague Martin Malone expects to see Debt/GDP rise from 15% to 50%.

This is a picture we’ve seen before.

While Saudi won’t become Venezuela overnight.. are there parallels? Perhaps. Meanwhile, last night’s overturn of Obama’s veto on US citizens suing Saudi over 9/11 is very interesting – and potentially further trouble.

However, it does sound like Iran and Saudi are going to try to coordinate on oil supply. Despite the fact these two very different nations will disagree on absolutely everything, it’s in their mutual interest to do so. Oil analysts expecting a $10 rise in prices are pinning their hopes on Sunni/Shia rapprochement.

I’ve been looking at some research suggesting a seismic shift in Middle East investment into the US as a safe-haven on regional fears it won’t happen – meaning Saudi can’t just assume the global investor base will blithely fund its coming debt binge. That adds pressures for them to play nice with other pariah states, including Russia and China. And even the Iranians..

Or, other commentators suggest the big Middle East funds – the SWFs – could be obliged to channel funds to Saudi to preserve regional stability – therefore liquidating current US holdings..

The Saudi riyal fell against the U.S. dollar in the forward foreign exchange market on Thursday after the U.S. Congress voted to allow relatives of victims of the Sept. 11 attacks to sue Saudi Arabia. 

And as Reuters reports, any legal action could take years to wind through the U.S. court system, and analysts said there might be little if any impact on the Saudi economy or state finances. But the decision by Congress was an unwelcome reminder of political and financial pressures on Riyadh as low oil prices strain its budget.

Saudi Arabia has been preparing to make its first international issue of sovereign bonds next month to raise $10 billion or more, but some Gulf bankers said the issue might now be delayed to give investors time to digest the news.

Similarly, the legal threat could make Riyadh less likely to choose New York for a listing of shares in national oil giant Saudi Aramco. An offer of Aramco shares is expected as soon as 2017, possibly raising tens of billions of dollars, and Saudi officials have said they are considering several foreign bourses.

The Senate and House of Representatives voted overwhelmingly on Wednesday to override President Barack Obama's veto of legislation granting an exception to the legal principle of sovereign immunity in cases of terrorism on U.S. soil.

This clears the way for attempts to seek damages from the Saudi government. Riyadh has denied longstanding suspicions that it backed the hijackers who attacked the United States in 2001. Fifteen of the 19 hijackers were Saudi nationals.

One-year dollar/riyal forwards - bets on Saudi devaluation - have soared to near 2016 highs...

And long-term forward points (a proxy for borrowing costs and The Kingdom's stability) have exploded...

Some analysts speculated that trade and investment ties between Saudi Arabia and the United States could be hurt. The kingdom owns $96.5 billion of U.S. Treasury bonds, according to the latest official U.S. data, and is believed to hold at least that sum in other U.S. assets and bank accounts.

"From a Saudi foreign ministry perspective, there will be a review of investment policy and that could move the kingdom down a different path, which could include diversification away from U.S. Treasuries," the Gulf banker said.

In May, Saudi foreign minister Adel al-Jubeir said the proposed U.S. law "would cause an erosion of investor confidence" in the United States, though he added that Riyadh was not threatening to pull its money out of the country.

Certainly, the fact that the largest bank in Saudi Arabia is crashing to record lows (with brokers citing loss of faith in the 2030 reform plans, rising defaults, and on top of the 9/11 bill blowabck, concerns over a possible new income tax)

陳鳳珠:10月市況隨時翻波

on.cc東網專訊

【on.cc東網專訊】 華金研究(國際)研究總監陳鳳珠在東方產經「股海珠璣」專欄中表示,港股於期結日穩守10日線水平,惟港股通於內地十一假期間暫停,在缺乏北水支持下,料港股後市走勢將反覆偏軟,短線或有機會下試23,000點關口。

石油輸出國組織自2008年來首次達成減產共識,油組計劃將每日原油產量縮減至3,250萬桶,但要到11月底油組召開會議時才會商討削減產能的細節,而目前每日產量約為3,324萬桶。今次沙特阿拉伯作出讓步,允許伊朗、阿爾及利亞與利比亞以合理最高水平產油,雖然油組實際減產量可能較預期少,惟心理刺激仍大,料短線油價走勢或趨穩定。

內地持續推出樓市調控措施,早前南京重啟限購政策,包括暫停向擁有一套及以上住房的非南京戶籍居民家庭出售新房及二手房,亦暫停向擁有兩套及以上住房的南京籍居民家庭出售新房後,南京隨即出現離婚潮。估計內地買家仍然傾向相信樓價會上漲,因此即使近日內地不斷推出打遏措施仍未能消除購房意欲。

另外,南京除實施限購外,將進一步增加商品住房供應以及加大商品住宅土地供應等,以穩定樓價,而南京、杭州及蘇州等地亦調整土地公開出讓競價方式,以限制土地最高競價,防止發展商搶高地價。

另外,內地亦針對房地產發展商的資金情況調控樓市,繼中證監限制房企通過再融資作補充流動資產及房地產建設後,上海證券交易所亦為房企發行公司債設立准入門檻,要求發債企業的信貸評訯達到AA級或以上,主要因現時內房企業負債高企。市場估計,今年首8個月房企發債規模超過6,000億元人民幣,一旦樓市逆轉,或令房企面臨財政壓力。

不過,近日內地推出信用違約互換產品,或為其中一個推升樓市的因素。其實信用違約互換將增加金融風險,因此內地樓市的發展情況非常關鍵,除影響內地經濟增長外,樓市走向亦牽動金融體系的穩定,故內地樓市只適宜緩緩地回調,於政策實施上較為困難。

踏入10月,市場將關注內地的六中全會以及美國總統候選人的辯論,政治因素或主導大市表現,預期港股走勢將較為波動。

華金研究(國際)研究總監 陳鳳珠(作者為註冊持牌人士,並沒有持有上述股票)

2016年9月29日 星期四

收市10大要知:觀望美次季GDP 道期微升1點

on.cc東網專訊

【on.cc東網專訊】 石油輸出國組織(OPEC)達成減產共識,油價及油股成環球市場焦點。美國將公布第2季GDP數據、申領失業金人數及8月成屋簽約銷售指數。道期現微升1點,報18,242點。以下為「收市10大要知」新聞:

1、歐股早段揚 英國石油彈約4% 德銀漲3%
油組限產消息刺激,歐股早段上揚,當中,英國富時100指數報6,915點,升65點或0.96%;法國CAC指數報4,492點,升60點或1.36%;德國DAX指數報10,545點,升107點或1.03%。
石油輸出國組織(OPEC)同意將石油產量限制在每日3,250萬至3,300萬桶之間,即每日減產20萬桶至70萬桶。英國石油(BP)及殼牌(Shell)分別升約4%。達道爾(Total)升4.43%;挪威國家石油公司(Statoil)升逾5%;英國圖盧石油(Tullow Oil)飆11%。
德銀股價續彈2.7%:德國商業銀行漲1.7%。

2、恒指升逾百點 油服股大翻身 內銀個別走
期指結算日,港股走勢反覆。恒生指數高開208點,已見全日高位23,828點,之後反覆回落,午後曾倒跌12點,低見至23,607點;尾市抽升過百點,收市報23,739點,升119點或0.51%。國企指數收報9,794點,升74點或0.77%。港股通今日起至10月10日暫停,主板全日成交縮減至590億港元,是1個月來首次不足600億;滬股通餘額124.13億人民幣。
石油股跟隨油價飆升。中國海洋石油收市飆逾5%;中國石油化工升4%,是表現最佳藍籌股;中國石油升3%,「3桶油」合共貢獻恒指53點。(板塊追蹤http://bit.ly/2axLJ99)
久沉的油田服務股大翻身,中海油田服務升逾1成,是表現最佳國指成分股。巨濤海洋石油服務曾飆25%,收市升16%;宏華集團升逾9%;安東油田服務及海隆控股升逾7%。

3、滬指收報2998 煤炭石油走強
外圍做好,內地股市報升。滬深股市高開高走,受惠於石油輸出國組織(OPEC)達減產共識,煤炭及石油股應聲走強,加上券商股做好,滬綜指全日高位曾升0.71%至3,009點,惟收市升幅收窄,3,000關得復失,全日收報2,998點,升10點或0.36%;深成指升45點或0.43%,報10,512點;滬深300指升13點或0.42%,報3,244點;創業板指升6點或0.31%,報2,146點。
滬市成交1,227億元人民幣,深市成交2,006億元人民幣。滬股通現淨餘額逾124億元人民幣。板塊方面,次新股升2.21%;油氣改革概念股升1.92%;生物燃料概念股升1.67%;農藥化肥股升1.56%;煤炭股升1.4%;石油股升1.05%;金融股升0.71%。至於陶瓷股跌1.15%;紡織機械股跌0.72%;石墨烯概念股跌0.55%。

4、太古城錄逾2千萬元成交 做價創今年新高
樓價破頂成交接連湧現,鰂魚涌太古城標準單位做價創今年新高,美聯吳肇基表示,太古城海棠閣中低層A室,實用面積1,114方呎,剛以約2,090萬元售出,實用呎價18,761元。
他指出,上月同屋苑美菊閣高層H室曾以2,100萬元高價成交,但單位現以約2,400萬元叫價再度放售,故相信最終未有完成交易,故剛以2,090萬元售出的海棠閣單位,創今年太古城標準戶售價新高。

5、阿里創業者基金:投資3間香港初創企業
阿里巴巴集團成立的非牟利項目─香港創業者基金公布,再投資3間香港初創企業,包括時裝電商零售商Grana、O2O餐飲速遞企業NOSH,以及亞洲美食生活內容創作平台日日煮(DayDayCook)。

6、新盤專輯:新地南昌站項目命名為匯璽
發展商部署第4季積極開盤,新鴻基地產(00016)副董事總經理雷霆表示,旗下西南九龍南昌站項目命名為匯璽,項目分3期發展,第2A期提供1,050伙,正申請預售樓花同意書,希望年底前開售。
新地代理總經理陳漢麟說,匯璽第2A期由2座高座及5座低密度住宅組成,單位間隔由開放式至4房,項目預計關鍵日期為2018年8月底。

7、網傳iPhone 7「首爆」 蘋果追加零件訂單
蘋果公司(Apple Inc.)的iPhone 7銷量高於預期,該公司追加該手機的零組件訂單。據外媒報道,蘋果的供應鏈報告顯示,iPhone 7零組件訂單急增,包括觸控面板廠商宸鴻光電科技(TPK)的觸摸面板訂單。供應鏈監控人士料,蘋果在今年底前已為8,000至8,400萬部手機訂購零組件。另方面,市傳iPhone 7錄得首宗爆炸事故,並有網民將爆炸圖片上傳。
近日有外國網民於美國的Reddit論壇上傳iPhone 7的爆炸圖片,一旦屬實,將為iPhone 7的首爆。
網民kroopthesnoop未有披露iPhone 7爆炸的具體情況,而據上傳的圖片,爆炸為黑色的iPhone 7,手機燒焦,屏幕裂開,邊框分離。而對於有網民查問何以出現此情況?kroopthesnoop回應指,「本身也不清楚,但肯定是工廠或運送途中出了問題。」報道指,蘋果仍未有回應爆炸傳言。

8、德國商業銀行淨裁員7300人
德國商業銀行預期第3季度出現淨虧損,將暫時停止派息;並料有重組支出11億歐元。
德國商業銀行同時宣布,將裁減9,600個全職工作崗位及將在增長地區設立2,300個新工作崗位;淨裁員人數為7,300人。

9、樓市不敗?湯文亮:財仔焗博 要提高警覺
紀惠集團行政總裁湯文亮撰文指,近日對一件事感到迷惑,就是樓市如此火熱,為何銀行明知可能觸犯金管局底線,仍然不斷減息爭取按揭生意。有人話銀行承做物業按揭的成數非常之低,風險近乎零,減息亦無問題。
然而,財務公司又如何?有中介公司夥拍財務公司為物業提供8至9成按揭,對財務機構來說風險很大,他們這樣做,明顯是生意不足。如果生意火爆,樓價飆升,財仔絕對不會出此下策。
湯文亮指出,財仔這樣做,其實是證明一件事︰即使樓價不跌,但成交量偏低。而樓價不跌是因為業主防守力高,以及辣招令到業主不得不防守;但高成數按揭的置業人士,他們的防守力是非常薄弱,當樓市轉勢,他們的物業就會成為市場上的供應量,如果當時購買力不足,樓市就會有急跌可能性,大家宜提高警覺。

10、深圳千億級人才安居集團 試水香港公屋模式
深圳正承受高房價帶來的隱性損失,其中人才吸引力的下降更是當務之急。壓力之下,深圳市政府成立人才安居集團,提供低成本住房。
據引述深圳住建部門及相關專家消息,深圳正探索一個類似香港公屋和居屋體系的住房保障計劃,為中低收入人群提供住房。據悉,9月20日,深圳市政協6屆17次主席會議上,廣東省省委副書記、深圳市委書記馬興瑞透露,針對有委員提出房子太貴的問題,深圳計劃成立一個1,000億元人民幣資本金的人才安居公司,提供遠低於市場承租價的房子,目的是吸引人才來深圳。
據深圳市住建局有關人士介紹,人才安居住房集團其實已成立,屬國有獨資公司,並已正式投入營運,由深圳市政府出資的300億元人民幣資金已到位,後續還要追加700億元人民幣。人才住房的具體執行與落實由安居集團負責,包括租賃購買的資格;政府住建部門負責監管。

樓市不敗?湯文亮:財仔焗博 要提高警覺

on.cc東網專訊

【on.cc東網專訊】 紀惠集團行政總裁湯文亮撰文指,近日對一件事感到迷惑,就是樓市如此火熱,為何銀行明知可能觸犯金管局底線,仍然不斷減息爭取按揭生意。有人話銀行承做物業按揭的成數非常之低,風險近乎零,減息亦無問題。

然而,財務公司又如何?有中介公司夥拍財務公司為物業提供8至9成按揭,對財務機構來說風險很大,他們這樣做,明顯是生意不足。如果生意火爆,樓價飆升,財仔絕對不會出此下策。

湯文亮指出,財仔這樣做,其實是證明一件事︰即使樓價不跌,但成交量偏低。而樓價不跌是因為業主防守力高,以及辣招令到業主不得不防守;但高成數按揭的置業人士,他們的防守力是非常薄弱,當樓市轉勢,他們的物業就會成為市場上的供應量,如果當時購買力不足,樓市就會有急跌可能性,大家宜提高警覺。

科技園推公司配對 初創企業展實力

on.cc東網專訊

【on.cc東網專訊】 港人創意爆燈,不少初創企業都研發出新技術,不過要突圍而出,獲大企業垂青,就需要一個機會。香港科技園公司去年推出「科學園技術方案業界應用計劃」,安排本港多間大機構分享業界需求,再由初創公司提出解決方案,至今已成功促成8個方案實行。香港科技園期望,計劃可助本港研發的技術,於不同業界應用,甚至能衝向國際。

香港國際機場是全球最繁忙的機場之一,跑道使用率極高,過往要檢測跑道燈是否運作正常,必須靠人手。透過計劃,機管局認識到初創企業PHO-Imaging研發的「速拍」技術,提高檢測效率及準確度,該公司創辦人劉德傑解釋:「速拍係一種高清、高速嘅拍攝技術,只要將儀器安裝喺車後面,再駛經各條跑道,就可以即時拍低影像,分析跑道燈運作是否正常。」

速拍技術已初步完成試驗,結果大致滿意,機管局工程及維修總經理湯遠敬預計,速拍能提升機場跑道燈的維修保養效率,以維持並加強機場航空的安全水平。

除了替代人手工作,科技亦能提升企業營運質素。海洋公園內各個機動遊戲經常出現人龍,初創公司MotherApp就提出解決方案,為海洋公園度身訂造PFlow系統,公司創辦人兼行政總裁羅健麟指,系統能實時蒐集人流數據,協助園方管理團隊按人流,即時調動人手。

海洋公園營運總監吳守堅表示,系統收集得來的數據,有助他們分析遊人的習慣,令他們更準確部署人手,「我哋不斷創新、優化,需要唔同嘅新技術,呢個計劃就好似寶藏咁,嚟緊一定會繼續同科學園合作,發掘更多新嘅技術。」

美心是另一家參與計劃的大企業。透過計劃,美心採用了準誠科技提供的產品控制管理系統,該公司聯合創辦人及總經理伍穎琪解釋,系統利用自動化技術及機器視像系統,作產品檢測及數據收集,提高食品製作生產線的產品質量。美心食品高級總監(製造)繆曉格指,使用系統後,有助公司食品安全標準再提高,「我哋之前有搵過外國科研公司,不過都唔適合,證明香港科研公司不遜色於外國。」

中電亦透過計劃,找到合適的本地方案。由光傳感公司開發的光纖分布式感溫系統,可探測地底電纜的溫度,並提供實時數據,即時評估地底電纜的狀況,中華電力輸電及供電業務部資產管理總監何兆光稱,系統有助及早發現電纜問題,防患於未然。

光傳感有限公司創辦人及行政總裁林兆明認為,不少初創企業因欠缺名聲及實際履歷,向大企業推銷時多以失敗告終,「呢個計劃就令我哋連繫到大企業,了解市場上實際需要,同埋證明到我哋嘅技術。」

香港科技園公司創業培育計劃主管莫偉軒表示,計劃推行至今,已安排18間大機構,向多間科學園內的初創公司,分享行業趨勢和商業需求,吸引190間初創公司參與,並向企業夥伴提交了117項建議,其中八個方案更已獲採納,涉及金額總值340萬港元。他認為計劃取得好開始,稍後更會推廣至中小企及政府部門,「希望更多本港企業,可以應用到本港研發嘅技術,甚至令呢啲技術衝向國際。」

2人染食肉菌1病翁亡 婦遭石斑刺傷入ICU

on.cc東網專訊

【on.cc東網專訊】 存在於海水的創傷弧菌可致壞死性筋膜炎(又稱食肉菌感染)。衞生防護中心最新一期《傳染病直擊》披露2宗食肉菌感染個案,其中1人死亡。該名83歲老翁有長期病患,本月17日起左手肘疼痛及持續發燒,同日到瑪嘉烈醫院求診,抽取樣本化驗證實感染創傷孤菌,臨床診斷為食肉菌感染,即使接受抗生素治療,入院3日後不治。初步調查顯示,病人沒有外遊紀錄,高風險因素未明,個案已轉交死亡庭跟進。

至於另一名78歲、有長期病患的本地婦女,本月14日於元朗大橋街市購買石斑時曾被刺傷,之後左腳持續疼痛,並有嘔吐、腹瀉等不適,送往屯門醫院治理,之後出現敗血性休克,一度入住深切治療部(ICU),接受抗生素治療及傷口清創手術後,現時情況穩定,轉回普通病房。

香港今年至今錄得6宗食肉菌感染個案,其中1人死亡,2015年及2014年分別有18宗及17宗個案,當中死亡個案分別有4宗及2宗。防護中心提醒,食肉菌感染是一種嚴重細菌感染,可破壞身體軟組織及筋膜,市民要小心處理海產,若有傷口應盡量避免接觸海水或海鮮,如出現持續皮膚紅腫、痛楚或有膿,應立即求醫。

另外,防護中心公布一宗鸚鵡熱個案,一名56歲男患者本月8日出現不適,前往屯門醫院求診,數日後病情惡化,一度入住深切治療部,經化驗後證實患鸚鵡熱,獲處方抗生素治療後情況好轉。他表示家中沒有飼養雀鳥,病發前未曾接觸鳥類,亦沒有外遊紀錄。防護中心會繼續調查該個案。香港今年至今錄得5宗鸚鵡熱個案,2015年及2014年分別有2宗及6宗。

翠湖花園2.6億元圍標案 維修商判囚35個月

on.cc東網專訊

【on.cc東網專訊】 沙田翠湖花園早前爆出2.6億港元天價維修工程,東網去年4月已率先報道,及後廉政公署就此展開調查及拘捕行動。而在案中擔任中間人的前工程公司男東主丘瑞田,涉串謀他人在2005至2014年間,向翠湖花園和濱景花園的業主立案法團成員或物業公司職員,提供近4500萬港元賄款,讓有關顧問及工程公司以圍標方式,取得兩個屋苑的顧問及工程合約。被告早前承認4項串謀向代理人提供利益罪,今在區域法院判囚35個月。

辯方求情指被告參與案中的角色有限,要執行圍標的具體動作,非被告的財力及能力可達到,且被告收益微小。被告今次犯案只為貪圖快錢,向廉署舉報,雖為私亦為公義,但他亦作出招認,令社會對圍標這種不法行為的怨氣得以宣洩,並積極為市民申冤,故有逾200名市民為被告撰求情信。辯方續指,被告向廉署投訴至今已4年,去年已認罪,並於年尾被還押至今已9個多月,相等於服刑24個月,又指被告在案件後需就診精神科及服藥,重申被告被定罪,全因被告招認,被告希望計算判刑折扣等,盡快出獄。

辯方又指此案獨特,雖因圍標案件猖獗,但一直未有定罪,直至本宗案件開了一個缺口,希望鼓勵他人出來舉報,若單憑涉案金額判予重刑,可能令人卻步。法官判刑時表示,接納被告為穿針引線的角色,雖有參與討論圍標細節,影響有限;但認為案件控罪嚴重,涉及巨額維修費用,且令競標不能公平進行,而圍標工程商亦會提高工程費用,以支付介紹等參與者的費用,工程亦缺乏適當監管,工程商等可能從中盡量謀取暴利,致業主支付了應有的費用,卻不能獲取應得的維修工程。

法官亦提到,被告的舉報非只為公義,亦為私利,但接納若非被告自招,並向控方提供有資料,否則難以定罪,故將量刑基準下調兩成,另給予刑期四成扣減,但法官強調此扣減只適用於被告,其他圍標參與者的罪責則較被告大。另外,法官指翠湖有關工程仍未完,有關工程公司已收取2.6億港元工程費中的七至八成;另有關建築公司於上月入稟高院控告翠湖業主立案法團,追索3000多萬港元工程費用。

在案件末段出現段小插曲,控方根據《防止賄賂條例》申請下令被告在合理時間內歸還涉案25萬港元,分別歸還濱景及翠湖花園業主立案法團。但辯方隨即表示被告已無能力償還,「(佢)喺呢行神憎鬼厭」,稱沒有人願意聘請,惟法官回應「未必嘅,可能有良心嘅人會請」,在席包括翠湖業主等旁聽人士即會心發笑。法官最後下令被告在30個月內支付款項。

翠湖花園業主陳錦棠庭外表示,暫時得一名被告被控,事件並不尋常,希望廉政公園盡力調查,他對於被告遭判囚35個月表示同情,可能被告認為有關行業已經「爛晒」,又指如果被告是一個會「計算」的人,恐不會出來指證。

另外,一批全港業主反貪腐反圍標大聯盟代表,包括候任立法會議員林卓廷今到法院外聲援小業主。林卓廷認為,今次案件判刑重,具阻嚇性,是業主痛苦的小勝利,他促請政府嚴肅打擊圍標,又希望廉署高調打擊圍標行為。

Why Won’t Hillary Release Her Medical Records? What is She Hiding?

要有科幻知識現會明 !

www.armstrongeconomics.com

The talk behind the curtain is that Hillary has a brain implant to calm her Parkinson’s disease. This way to deal with the disease is becoming more common as the FDA has approved such implants. This video shows the dramatic results of how this technology works. The rumor is that this is why Hillary was not publicly around for a week. Some are saying she was wired with people reading the answers to her.

However, others disagree. She may have had an implant to deal with all the criticism on the web about her having tremors and Parkinson’s disease. Hillary collapsed at the 9/11 memorial from something besides simple dehydration, as she claimed. There are a slew of questions emerging about her health and the strange objects that appear regularly under her pantsuits.

While Hillary says Trump is hiding something by not releasing his tax returns, Hillary may be hiding something by refusing to reveal her medical record. That seems to be the bigger issue.

深圳千億級人才安居集團 試水香港公屋模式

on.cc東網專訊

【on.cc東網專訊】 深圳已成為全球房價第2貴的城市,新房平均單價已突破每平方米7萬元人民幣。據內媒,主打產業創新升級和高端製造業的深圳,正承受高房價帶來的隱性損失,其中人才吸引力的下降更是當務之急。壓力之下,深圳市政府成立人才安居集團,提供低成本住房。

據引述深圳住建部門及相關專家消息,深圳正探索一個類似香港公屋和居屋體系的住房保障計劃,為中低收入人群提供住房;按照計劃,十三五期間,這些政策性住房的數量或將超過商品房。

據悉,9月20日,深圳市政協6屆17次主席會議上,廣東省省委副書記、深圳市委書記馬興瑞透露,針對有委員提出房子太貴的問題,深圳計劃成立一個人民幣(下同)1,000億資本金的人才安居公司,提供遠低於市場承租價的房子,目的是吸引人才來深圳。

據深圳市住建局有關人士介紹,人才安居住房集團其實已成立,屬國有獨資公司,並已正式投入運營,由深圳市政府出資的300億元資金已到位,後續還要追加700億元。人才住房的具體執行與落實由安居集團負責,包括租賃購買的資格;政府住建部門負責監管。

就供地和資金方面,深圳房地產研究中心主任王鋒認為,人才安居房的供地,城市更新將是一個重要渠道。

按深圳市《關於完善人才住房制度的若干措施》文件提到,城中村改造項目、改造後包含商務公寓的城市更新項目,基準配建比例不低於15%;舊工業區、倉儲區或城市基礎設施及公共服務設施改造為住宅的,基準配建比例不低於30%。未來5年,通過城市更新配建提供不少於13萬套人才住房和保障房。
  
而招拍掛出讓的商品住宅項目用地,應配建不少於10%的人才住房;今後深圳每年新增供應的居住用地中,人才住房和保障房用地面積應當不少於60%。
  
《措施》還要求,十三五期間,利用產業園區配套建設人才公寓或宿舍,總建築面積要不少於160萬平方米。
  
政府方面,十三五期間要通過沒收、租賃、徵收歷史遺留建築等方式,籌集不少於8萬套人才住房。
  
資金方面,據了解,在初期市府出資後,人才安居集團後續可通過槓桿撬動6,000億-7,000億元的資金規模,用於人才住房的全過程一體化建設運營管理。由於有政府作背景,人才安居集團亦可以達成一些戰略性股權合作解決運營等問題,收編一些中小型企業或者與他們進行股權合作,也可以通過其他市場渠道,如債券、基金等達到撬動數千億資金的目的。

目前深圳市的住房保障覆蓋率很低。據深圳市住建局不完全統計,截至2015年底,深圳保障性住房及貨幣補貼覆蓋率僅有16%,低於國家《關於新型城鎮化發展規劃》提出的20%的要求。
  
據住建局測算,十三五期末,保守估計,深圳規模常住人口將達到1,200萬,要實現保障人口達到20%,深圳保障房供應缺口30萬到40萬套。這意味未來5年,深圳市保障房供應或將達到與商品房同樣的量級,甚至更高。

HSBC’s Chief of Technical Analysis Just Warned of a Potential 1987-Type Crash

www.zerohedge.com

by Phoenix Capital...

The head of HSBC’s Technical Analysis group just issued a major warning.
Unless the markets can take out their September highs, we could very well see a repeat of the 1987 Crash.

Murray Gunn is head of technical analysis for HSBC. In a recent client note, he pointed out the Head and Shoulders top pattern that presaged the 1987 Crash.
In its simplest forms, the Dow Jones Industrial Average formed a Head and Shoulders top when it violated its neckline. It then had a failed attempt to reclaim the neckline, which resulted in the market rolling over into the famous Crash.

Gunn notes that the Dow is forming a similar pattern today. He also notes that momentum is waning, and Elliot Wave analysis indicates a 1987-type Crash could indeed occur.

The markets are on thin ice. Whether we're heading for just another correction or something BIGGER remains to be seen.

For certain, we have the makings of a REAL disaster with the situation in Deutsche Bank.

As Promised, Cartel Delivers HUGE Gold & Silver Raid- Harvey Organ

金銀價等轉倉結算 !

www.silverdoctors.com全文

AS PROMISED, A HUGE RAID ON GOLD/SILVER ON COMEX OPTIONS EXPIRY…

DEUTSCHE BANK’S STOCK LANDS INTO SINGLE DIGITS/ITS CREDIT DEFAULTS SWAPS RISE AND SIGNALS BIG TROUBLE/DEPT OF JUSTICE IN THE USA SET TO LAND ON VOLKSWAGEN/ANOTHER USA HEDGE FUND BITES THE DUST (PERRY CAPITAL)

I wrote the following yesterday and I guess I was correct:

Tomorrow is options expiry and judging by the open interest reported today, the bankers will surely attack tomorrow.  It seems that they have circled $1340 gold and will do everything possible to keep the price below the level.  As far as silver is concerned, it looks like they want the price below $19.50.

This is criminal behaviour but since our regulators allows this nonsense to continue we can nothing about it and must wait it out.

After comex options expire tomorrow, we have the LBMA/OTC options which expire on Friday.”

Tomorrow the crooks will let paper gold/silver rise as they still have until Friday to whack the LBMA/OTC options.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
In silver, the total open interest FELL by  only 267 contracts DOWN to 203,441. The open interest ROSE DESPITE THE FACT THAT the silver price was DOWN 21 cents in yesterday’s trading .In ounces, the OI is still represented by just MORE THAN 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.017 BILLION TO BE EXACT or 145% of annual global silver production (ex Russia &ex China).
In silver we had 4 notices served upon for 20,000 oz
In gold, the total comex gold ROSE by 6183 contracts as the price of gold ROSE BY $2.50 YESTERDAY . The total gold OI stands at 599,973 contracts.
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD
LAST NIGHT WE HAD A HUGE CHANGE OUT OF THE GLD/ A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.08 TONNES/
Total gold inventory rests tonight at: 949.14 tonnes of gold

SLV
we had no changes with respect to inventory at the SLV
THE SLV Inventory rests at: 364.523 million oz

Saudia Arabia to Sell All US Assets as Congress Overrides Obama Veto

www.armstrongeconomics.com

Congress voted to override Obama’s veto that families of those killed in the terror attacks on 9/11 would not be allowed to sue Saudi Arabia. This is the first time he has been overruled. This will open the courts in New York to some very interesting court battles, but Saudi Arabia will most likely sell off all US assets to prevent any US court from freezing their assets. If they take everything out of the USA, then they can ignore the courts and not defend at all exposing themselves to discovery rules that will be very intrusive.

學者憂人亂借 更憂放貸出事

文匯報

香港文匯報訊(記者 蘇洪鏘)面對金管局對銀行按揭的管控仍牢牢抓緊之際,代理行、財務公司、按揭中介仍然合作推出寬鬆的按揭方案。有學者指,業界推出如此招數,務求將二手潛在購買力迫發出來,目標客路為財力稍遜的置業人士。其憂心倘若財務公司本身實力欠奉,或者一旦出現樓市大幅逆轉,樓市難免出現泡沫爆破。

中文大學劉佐德全球經濟及金融研究所常務所長莊太量表示,目前物業交投焦點落在一手市場,二手一直膠着,代理行、按揭中介及財務公司以預先批核、免壓力測式、高額高成數按揭作招徠,主要想吸納二手成交,高成數按揭則可吸納財力稍不及的客路。

海外「財仔」或成房地美翻版 

他擔心部分本地財務公司未必具足夠實力,而目前外圍經濟前景未明,資金來自海外的「財仔」需承受匯率風險,資金未必足夠承受風險,最終可導致近似美國房地美及房貸美的災難式泡爆。當下入市、考慮採用高成數的置業人士應量力而為。

爭完一手再奪二手商機 

不過亦有學者對業界的按揭方案表示見怪不怪。市場營銷學者冼日明認為,自金管局收緊銀行按揭成數及壓力測試,同時發展商則見招拆招以旗下財務公司借錢予客人上樓後,令二手購買力大幅轉向一手,今次的按揭方案反映業界察覺到市場商機,務求吸納二手潛在客源。

冼日明指,所有借貸都需承受風險,市場預期美國加息周期不會太密、力度不大,大跌市情況難出現,相信今次財務公司亦已計算過自身的承受能力。除非當局加快進入加息周期,並以半厘至一厘的幅度跳升,再遭逢樓市大逆轉,貸款人方會面臨較大的危機。

印尼火山爆發 逾250登山客失蹤

文匯報

印尼龍目島的林賈尼火山前日傍晚開始爆發,火山灰柱高達2公里,導致半空滿佈火山灰。當局截至昨日已疏散超過1,100名民眾,暫未收到傷亡報告,又派救援人員撤離現場附近389名遊客,當中333人為外籍人士。當局已確認約120人的位置,並得悉他們正在下山,但仍有逾250人未能聯絡上,擔心他們被困山上。

今次爆發的是林賈尼火山口內部一座較小的火山錐「巴魯賈尼火山」,當局昨日提高火山警戒級別,但距離最高危險級別仍有2級。現場方圓約3.7公里的鄉鎮暫未受影響,龍目島機場運作如常,但部分往來旅遊勝地峇里島的航班取消。

林賈尼火山每年吸引成千上萬遊客攀登,由山腳攀上山頂一般需時數天,巴魯賈尼火山則是沿路主要景點。印尼國家救災部門發言人努格羅霍指,根據25日以來的記錄,共有389人士試圖登山,大部分是外國人。他又指,雖然大多數遊客根據官方建議路線攀山,但不排除有人自行設定路線。

印尼官員未有發佈失蹤遊客的國籍,美國駐雅加達大使館表示,未知當中有否美國公民。

印尼位處環太平洋火山帶,全國共有130個活火山。由於地殼移動,當地過去多次發生地震及火山爆發。

■美聯社/法新社/美國全國廣播公司

奧巴馬否決控告沙特法案 遭國會兩院推翻

on.cc東網專訊

【on.cc東網專訊】 美國國會兩院周三分別以超過2/3多數票,果斷地推翻總統奧巴馬對容許911襲擊死者家屬控告沙特阿拉伯政府法案的否決,令法案成為法例。奧巴馬及國防部官員曾警告,法案可能使美國軍隊和國家利益面臨風險。

參議院先以97票對1票,推翻奧巴馬的否決,唯一投反對票的是參議院少數黨領袖里德。眾議院稍後亦投票,以348票對77票,推翻奧巴馬的否決,令有關法案會成為法例。奧巴馬就任接近兩任期間,從未試過被國會推翻否決權。該次是他任內第12次動用否決權。

白宮認為,法案會危害主權豁免原則,令美國本身亦面臨訴訟。奧巴馬在周二致參院共和黨及民主黨領袖的信中稱,有關法案有損國家利益,對國防部、美國軍人、使節及情報機構有破壞性後果。他警告法案無助保護國民免受恐襲。

911襲擊的死難者家屬爭取有關立法,認為沙特政府在這宗導致近3000人死亡的襲擊中有一定責任。

賣地計劃:推5幅地及2鐵路項目 涉4600伙

on.cc東網專訊

【on.cc東網專訊】 發展局局長陳茂波公布第3財季(10至12月)賣地計劃,共推出4,600伙單位。當中,包括2個大埔項目,提供660伙;3個啟德項目,提供2,100伙,以及何文田及黃竹坑2個鐵路項目,提供1,800伙。

陳茂波稱,首3財季的供應已達全財年目標87%,達標無問題,而下個年度則努力中。政府全年一手住宅供應目標為1.8伙。

至於今個財政年度計劃推出4個鐵路項目,除第3季會推出何文田及黃竹坑項目,預計第4季推出將軍澳日出康城及元朗錦上路項目。

另外,陳茂波表示,現時由駕駛學院以短期租約租用的鴨脷洲用地,正向城規會申請改劃。他形容,該地塊對政府年內土地供應重要,會迎難而上。但即使相關地塊改劃失敗,但仍有Plan B,會以啟德地頂上。

他重申,無高地價政策,每次賣地會按當時估價定底價,過往賣地的成交價有上也有落,會按目標持續穩定供應土地予市場。

對於香港樓價走勢,陳茂波表示,現時樓價回升,交投熾熱,但坊間的專業機構對樓價走向莫衷一是,對此他不作揣測,僅稱對雙辣招是否能夠達到目的「睇得好緊」。

他又表示,留意到近期市場有「納米樓」供應,但現出售的地皮並沒有加設單位供應量限制,以給予市場彈性,但未來一手供應9.3萬伙,佔7成為中小型單位,故中小單位未來供應相當大,是有好多選擇。

高力國際估價及諮詢服務行政董事張翹楚稱,3財季賣地計劃推4,600伙單位,數目不算高,但相信已經足夠達標,情況理想,而是次亦推出鐵路項目,反映政府與港鐵有一定協調。並料,未來鐵路項目供應充足,仍未推出的朗錦上路及康城等項目,料涉及逾6,000伙。

2016年9月28日 星期三

CRASH SEASON Is Here! – Stewart Thomson

10月股災月 ?

www.silverdoctors.com

The bottom line is that the September – October time frame is crash season for the US stock market, and the situation is grim…

Submitted by Stewart Thomson, Graceland Updates: 
  1.           If gold is to move substantially higher and retain the bulk of those gains, inflation needs to become a significant concern.
  2. Double-click to enlarge this eight hour bars gold chart. An upside breakout seems imminent, but patience is required.
  3.     A breakout from that drifting rectangle pattern I’ve highlighted on the chart is significant, because it creates a much bigger breakout on the monthly chart.
  4. Gold is almost ready to begin a significant leg higher!
  5.     The US presidential debate had almost no effect on the gold price, and that’s because most of the questions had nothing to do with the economy.
  6. Double-click to enlarge this interesting 8 hour bars chart of the Dow.
  7.     The US stock market initially rallied after the debate, but it’s since given back most of those gains.
  8.     There’s a clear bear wedge pattern in play on the chart, and that follows a breakdown from a head and shoulders top pattern.
  9.     The bottom line is that the September – October time frame is crash season for the US stock market, and the situation is grim.
  10.     Who won the debate? Well, mainstream media is essentially socialist, and they say Hillary won.
  11. Social media statistics suggest that Trump won the debate, and that’s because social media was more focused on the economy than mainstream media.
  12.     There are a lot of Trump fans in the Western gold community, and I suggest they focus on social media as much as mainstream media, to keep on top of the pre-election action.
  13.     In regards to the potential for inflation, please click here now.  Merrill analysts have just issued a blockbuster report, suggesting that a multi-year supply output squeeze is coming.
  14.     I think they are correct, and this has significant implications for the price of oil, which is by far the single largest component of most commodity indexes.
  15. Double-click to enlarge this eight hour bars oil chart.
  16.     Oil is coiled in a nice bull wedge pattern, and poised to surge towards the $50 area highs, and perhaps to $53.
  17.     Some oil bears have suggested that electric cars could put pressure on long term oil demand. I agree, but they will put more pressure on oil companies to cancel new mega-projects.
  18.      Electric cars will not produce a lower oil price, but, ironically, a higher one! There are many factors working synergistically to drive inflation higher, and oil is certainly one of them.
  19.      I’m getting a lot of emails from investors who are worried that gold stocks could get hit hard if the US stock market crumbles. Here’s the bottom line:
  20.      There’s no question that there appears to be more margin used in the gold stocks arena than the bullion arena, at the current time.
  21.      It’s a different situation from 2008. In 2008, hedge funds were forced to liquidate gold to meet margin calls caused by the OTC derivatives crisis.
  22.      Now, a loss of confidence theme is brewing, with the focus on central banks and government treasury bonds. That means that institutional money managers are much more likely to buy gold in a market meltdown event. Gold stocks can decline initially if the stock market crashes, but they will soon follow gold, and move higher.
  23. Double-click to enlarge this GDX chart. Note the position of the Stochastics oscillator, at the bottom of the chart.  GDX is more solid here than most investors think.
  24.      While the presidential debate received a lot of attention, I’ll dare to suggest that tomorrow’s COMEX option expiry is much more likely to be the catalyst that produces a fresh leg higher for gold, and for stock in the companies that mine this mighty metal!

收市10大要知:等德拉吉耶倫講話 道期報升

on.cc東網專訊

【on.cc東網專訊】 德意志銀行引發金融危機的憂慮持續,市場觀望歐洲央行行長德拉吉今晚將在德國聯邦議院以「歐元區當前發展」為題的講話;另美國聯儲局主席耶倫亦將向眾議院的金融服務委員會作證,預期將被問及對利率及經濟前景的看法。道期現升26點,報18,161點。以下為「收市10大要知」新聞:

1、歐股開市靠穩 德銀彈逾3%
油國會議暫未見成果,歐股早段靠穩,當中英國富時100指數報6,835點,升28點或0.42%;法國CAC指數報4,427點,升29點或0.66%;德國DAX指數報10,423點,升62點或0.60%。
歐洲銀行股普遍向好,德銀昨一度再創歷史新低後,今日顯著反彈,早段升3.13%;法興及瑞信升逾1%;德國商業銀行及巴克萊銀行分別升不足1%。

2、恒指倒升47點 重磅做好 內銀拗腰
期指結算前夕,港股先跌後升。港股通明日起收爐至10月10日,大市成交縮減至億元。恒生指數低開116點後反覆向下,最多跌201點,低見23,370點。午後逐步收復失地,10天及20天線失而復得,並以全日高位收市,報23,619點,升47點或0.2%。國企指數收報9,719點,跌26點或0.27%。
主板全日成交615億港元,常中包括郵政儲蓄銀行逾46億元。港股通餘額83.13億人民幣;滬股通餘額131.06億人民幣。
郵儲行掛牌力頂招股價,收報4.77元,較招股價高1仙。昨日炒上的大型內銀股先跌後回順,左右大市走勢。中國銀行倒升0.5%;農業銀行及工商銀行無起跌;交通銀行及建設銀行跌幅收窄至0.3%。( 板塊追蹤http://bit.ly/2axLJ99)

3、滬指收跌10點 萬科升2.6%
滬深股市全日反覆偏軟,滬綜指3,000點僅屬蕓花一現,全日低位曾跌0.46%見2,984點,收市報2,987點,跌10點或0.34%;深成指跌9點或0.09%,收報10,467點;滬深300指跌9點或0.3%,報3,230點;創業板指跌1點或0.05%,報2,139點。
滬市成交1,164億元人民幣,深市成交1,888億元人民幣。滬股通現淨餘額逾131億元人民幣。板塊方面,風沙治理概念股跌1.58%;裝飾園林概念股跌1.46%;黃金概念股跌0.97%;水泥股跌0.81%;石油股跌0.52%。不過,摩托車股升0.98%;鋼鐵股升0.82%;智能電網概念股升0.7%;觸摸屏概念股升0.67%;家電股升0.6%。

4、巨無霸登場:郵儲行收4.77元 每手帳賺10元
巨無霸新股中國郵政儲蓄銀行首日掛牌,在保薦人力頂下,全日穩守招股價。郵儲行全平開後,全日於4.76港元及4.77元兩口價上落,收市報4.77元,較招股價高1仙,每手帳面賺10元,全日成交46.15億元。
與4大內銀首日上市表現比較,郵儲行與同於2006年上市的中國銀行及中國工商銀行完全無得比,兩間大行收市均升近15%,工行當時更刷新多達26項紀錄,其中更破單一股份單日最大成交紀錄。

5、李小加:深港通籌備漸近尾聲
香港交易所行政總裁李小加表示,深港通各項準備工作正密鑼緊鼓進行,「逐漸逐漸接近尾聲」,一兩天內會公布細節,數個星期後再選一個「黃道吉日」,希望可以在11月初期告訴大家。

6、央行及銀行連環被黑 SWIFT再加強安全指引
為防網絡攻擊,環球銀行間金融通信系統(SWIFT)周二宣布強制新加一系列安全指引要求,包括16項核心安全標準,及11項客戶可以自願執行的安全建議;客戶必須在明年第2季度前符合標準要求並作聲明,否則SWIFT會從2018年1月起將未作聲明的客戶報告給監管機構。客戶並必須每年證明自己的合規情況。
SWIFT行政總裁Gottfried Leibbrandt承認,剛過去的夏天最少發生了3次銀行遭黑客攻擊事故,顯示情況日趨嚴重。

7、新盤專輯:奧城‧西岸折實707萬起
九龍建業旗下大角咀奧城‧西岸上載1號價單,涉及12個單位,價單售價790.2萬元起,扣除最高10.5%折扣優惠後,折實售價由707.2萬元起,該單位為8樓D室,實用面積443方呎,呎價17,837元,折實呎價約15,964元。
九龍建業市務及銷售部總經理楊聰永表示,奧城.西岸於2013年已火速售出8成半單位。近期樓市逆轉上揚,在英國脫歐公投及人民幣貶值的帶動下,資金趨向流入具發展潛力的地區;環觀全球,香港的物業質素及城市規劃等具有優勢。

8、德銀近10億英鎊售英保險資產
德意志銀行同意向英國Phoenix出售英國保險子公司Abbey Life Assurance,作價9.35億英鎊。德銀股價一度升逾3%;現升幅收窄至2.8%,報10.84歐元。
德銀稱,交易將可補充集團核心一級資本充足率10個百分點;並從中錄得一次過8億歐元稅前虧損。

9、湯文亮:賣自住物業要三思
紀惠集團行政總裁湯文亮撰文指,近日無論工商舖或住宅,大中小額成交,買家大多數是內地人,出價經常較市價高。愈多內地人投資香港物業,代表他們重視香港。如果北水投資香港,但在物業取態是只租不買,就代表他們抱過客心態,當找到更適合投資的地方,就會離開香港。
湯文亮指出,北水選擇在市況淡靜時湧港亦是明智之舉。即使要付溢價,但可以買到較優質的物業。況且他們可以利用各類集資渠道,或者出售部份內地物業套現投資港樓。他擔心日後北水遍布在港插旗後,不少賣走自住物業的港人將要向內地人租樓住,屆時又會出現一些排外情緒。
湯文亮提醒業主,別在無壓力的情況下將自住單位賣走。

10、三星又出事!平板冒煙迫降美航班
三星電子繼旗艦手機Galaxy Note 7出現爆炸事故外,近日亦有平板電腦出事。據外媒報道,一款三星的平板電腦日前因過熱冒煙,導致達美航空(Delta)一架由底特律飛往阿姆斯特丹的航班被迫在曼徹斯特臨時降落。另外,在內地銷售的Note 7再錄得爆炸事故,屬中國地區的第5宗。
報道指,該平板電腦是在航班的飛行途中冒出白煙,並發出難聞氣味,飛機最終要迫降。據悉,平板電腦並非當時機上人士所有,有機會是由上一班航班的人士留下。美國聯邦航空局(FAA)現正對事件展開調查。
三星發聲明指,事件擬因外部因素而導致,與正在召回的Galaxy Note 7無關;公司正展開調查,具體原因尚未確定。

大疆硬撼GoPro 無人機Mavic Pro挑機Karma

money18.on.cc

美國無人機公司GoPro發布新款Karma無人機後,產品仍未上架,就遇到強勁的競爭對手。外電報道,中國無人機品牌大疆創新(DJI)日前推出新款四旋翼飛行器Mavic Pro,由於兩款無人機的性能相似,均具備折疊式螺旋槳、4K鏡頭等,料將互相搶佔市場。

大疆的Mavic Pro內置攝像頭,售價1,000美元,具有一流的飛行性能,接近旗下更昂貴的Phantom 4。至於GoPro的Karma售價為799美元,但鏡頭需要單買,1部Karma無人機配上GoPro的Hero 5鏡頭總售價約1,200美元。

Mavic Pro和Phantom 4都利用來自鏡頭和傳感器的數據避開樹木、建築物等障礙物。兩款無人機還可以跟在用家身後,也可以繞過物體。

Mavic Pro現開始接受預定,將於10月15日開始發貨。

湯文亮:賣自住物業要三思

有人好清高叫人唔好買樓出租, 說是吸小市民的血汗錢和幫上一輩業主托高樓價 !  

可是在一個自由市場, 你唔買, 終會有人買來收租的, 何況歐美樓市愈變愈差, 香港樓市就愈吃香 !

on.cc東網專訊

【on.cc東網專訊】 紀惠集團行政總裁湯文亮撰文指,近日無論工商舖或住宅,大中小額成交,買家大多數是內地人,出價經常較市價高。愈多內地人投資香港物業,代表他們重視香港。如果北水投資香港,但在物業取態是只租不買,就代表他們抱過客心態,當找到更適合投資的地方,就會離開香港。

湯文亮指出,北水選擇在市況淡靜時湧港亦是明智之舉。即使要付溢價,但可以買到較優質的物業。況且他們可以利用各類集資渠道,或者出售部份內地物業套現投資港樓。他擔心日後北水遍布在港插旗後,不少賣走自住物業的港人將要向內地人租樓住,屆時又會出現一些排外情緒。

湯文亮提醒業主,別在無壓力的情況下將自住單位賣走。

World Trade Collapsing On Schedule

www.armstrongeconomics.com

The World Trade Organization (WTO) has warned that there is a “dramatic slowing of trade growth” unfolding. The WTO has revised downward its projections, saying trade is now on track this year to grow at the slowest pace since 2009.

The hunt for taxes is destroying the world economy and on January 1, 2017, all governments will begin sharing info on foreigners. The assumption is that anyone doing anything outside the USA is hiding money from taxes. With this attitude, world trade will continue to collapse into 2020.

WTO:今年全球貿易增速或創金融危機新低

money18.on.cc

世界貿易組織(WTO)周二警告稱,今年全球貿易增速將創下金融危機以來的最低水平。在全球化倒退情緒升溫之際,這應該被視為一個警鐘。

WTO下調了對今、明2年進出口增長的預期。WTO現在預計,2016年進出口將僅增長1.7%,2017年增幅為1.8%。WTO在4月份對今、明2年進出口增長的預期分別為2.8%和3.6%。

致富智庫:讀幾多書最容易做富豪?

唔讀大學, 唔代表你無機會變富豪, 不過唔讀大學, 你可能連似樣的工都無得做 ! 
讀完大學也唔代表你可以目中無人, 睇唔起沒讀過大學的人, 呢樣叫修養 !

on.cc東網專訊

【on.cc東網專訊】 你或許會聽過,許多中途輟學而成功創業的故事,就連微軟創辦人蓋茨、電動車龍頭Tesla創辦人馬斯克等也是輟學創業,這似乎給大家一種印象,就是讀書並沒有那麼重要!不過,事實又真的如此嗎?

當然,做成功企業家,不是只靠學識就得,在職場上如何長袖善舞,避開禍患更加是必須,click入「致富智庫」http://money18.on.cc/wealth,助你領悟理財與職場智慧。

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話說回來,據一份頂級億萬富翁調查,原來成功的創業家中,大多數都有經歷過大學教育,研究生以上學歷的人數更高於沒拿過大學學位的。

GoCompare詳細分析了過去20年間,100份《福布斯》億萬富翁排行榜上有名富翁的教育背景。數據顯示,這些億萬富翁當中76%有大學學位,其中47%為學士,23%為碩士,6%為博士。其背景多與經濟學及工程學有關,尤其是多數攻讀經濟學相關專業,其次是科研、藝術、人文學科。換句話說,讀「經濟」多數發達!這會否對你選讀學科有啟示呢?

也就是說,在這些億萬富翁當中,只有1/4沒有讀過大學或中途輟學。更值得注意的是,這些富翁們所就讀的院校也多是頂尖院校,其中哈佛大學是盛產富翁最多的大學,哈佛大學商學院更是盛產富豪之最;英國大學中則是倫敦政治經濟學院和劍橋大學;法國巴黎綜合理工學院畢業的億萬富翁人數亦多;德國則是卡爾斯魯厄大學;孟買大學是印度出富豪頻率最高的大學。

值得一提的是,雖然正式教育可以鋪出成功之路,但自學更重要!億萬富翁的共同特質是他們都酷愛閱讀,例如「股神」巴菲特一天工作時間的80%用於閱讀,蓋茨則每年讀50本書。

Google無人車與貨車相撞 至今最嚴重車禍

on.cc東網專訊

【on.cc東網專訊】 美國加洲山景城一輛Google無人車在與一輛小型貨車相撞,車門損毀及玻璃窗碎裂,事件中無人受傷。這次事故是目前Google無人車計劃中最嚴重的車禍。

Google公司指當時一輛小型貨車在加洲皇家大道(El Camino Real)十字路口衝紅燈,撞向無人車的右邊車身,導致無人車損毀。Google聲稱當時無人車在交通燈轉為綠燈後6秒才開車,同時一名目擊者亦證實意外是由小型貨車造成,與無人車無關。

Google表示有94%交通意外是人為造成,因此希望研發全自動駕駛汽車,令道路變得安全。Google的無人車之前已發生過不少與傳統汽車相撞的意外,當中不少是追尾事件。

騙徒扮「名城」業主 呃290萬訂金落網

on.cc東網專訊

【on.cc東網專訊】 今年初有騙徒冒充大圍屋苑「名城」一單位業主,並用偽造的身份證開銀行戶口及辦理臨時買賣合約,騙過律師樓和地產代理,收取290萬港元訂金後「人間蒸發」,警方商業罪案調查科探員鎖定目標但遍尋不獲,今晚趁其中一名冒業主開銀行戶口的疑犯,到深水埗探訪女友時將他拘捕,正追緝餘黨。

被捕男子姓彭(40歲),報稱無業,據悉為「癮君子」,他在案中扮業主開銀行戶口收取同黨騙來的訂金。案情顯示,彭取得名城一個單位的業主姓名等個人資料後,再利用該資料,將自己身份證姓名改作業主姓名,再到銀行開戶口,在犯案後再改回自己真姓名。

另一邊廂,其同黨利用業主資料製造一張假身份證,並偽造租約等樓宇文件,去年12月透過地產代理將名城一個單位放盤,並找到準買家,至今年2月,騙徒簽臨時合約後收取訂金約290萬港元,並存入彭所開的銀行戶口,然後齊齊捲款失蹤。其後真業主收到律師樓文件,才知物業被人出售。

警方於今年2月接報,由商罪科接手,並鎖定開銀行戶口收錢的姓彭男子身份,但他過去7個月「無影無蹤」,探員得悉他有一名親密女友,故在深水埗醫局街埋伏監視多日,今晚7時,疑犯現身後,探員以涉嫌「以欺騙手段取得財產」及「洗黑錢」罪名將彭拘捕,同時檢獲少量毒品。至於扮業主同地產代理、律師樓接洽的男子仍被追緝。

地監局早前表示,不宜對個別個案作評論,執業通告已提醒代理須小心核實賣方身份,發放訂金給賣方前,應確保賣方與業主身份是相同的或賣方有權出售物業,或提醒買方安排託管訂金在律師行內。

Options Expiry Gold and Silver Raid! – Harvey Organ

推低金銀價來結算 !

www.silverdoctors.com

Tomorrow is options expiry and judging by the open interest reported today, the bankers will surely attack tomorrow.  It seems that they have circled $1340 gold and will do everything possible to keep the price below the level.  As far as silver is concerned, it looks like they want the price below $19.50.

CHINA’S TOTAL DEBT APPROACHING 300% AS SMALLER BANKERS HAVING TROUBLE WITH FINANCING/MERKEL RULES OUT BAIL OUT FOR DEUTSCHE BANK/DEUTSCHE BANK PLUMMETS ALONG WITH A RISE IN THEIR CREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS/ GERMANY’S SECOND LARGEST BANK FIRING 9,000 WORKERS OR 18% OF ENTIRE WORK FORCE/WAR OF WORDS ESCALATING BETWEEN RUSSIAN AND THE USA/SYRIANS CLAIM THAT THEY HAVE AUDIO OF CONVERSATIONS BETWEEN ISIS AND USA PRIOR TO THE BOMBING OF THE CONVOY/BARRICK IS ORDERED TO SHUT DOWN BIG VELADARO MINE IN ARGENTINA DUE TO CYANIDE LEAK: 600,000 OZ OF GOLD IS NOW OFF LINE

Tomorrow is options expiry and judging by the open interest reported today, the bankers will surely attack tomorrow.  It seems that they have circled $1340 gold and will do everything possible to keep the price below the level.  As far as silver is concerned, it looks like they want the price below $19.50.

This is criminal behavior but since our regulators allows this nonsense to continue we can nothing about it and must wait it out.

After comex options expire tomorrow, we have the LBMA/OTC options which expire on Friday.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
In silver, the total open interest ROSE by 862 contracts UP to 203,708. The open interest ROSE DESPITE THE FACT THAT the silver price was DOWN 29 cents in yesterday’s trading .In ounces, the OI is still represented by just MORE THAN 1 BILLION oz i.e. 1.0185 BILLION TO BE EXACT or 146% of annual global silver production (ex Russia &ex China).
In silver we had 37 notices served upon for 185,000 oz
In gold, the total comex gold ROSE by 7,023 contracts DESPITE THE FACT THAT  the price of gold FELL BY $3.20 ON FRIDAY . The total gold OI stands at 593,835 contracts.
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With respect to our two criminal funds, the GLD and the SLV:

GLD
LAST NIGHT WE HAD NO CHANGES INTO the GLD/
Total gold inventory rests tonight at: 951.22 tonnes of gold

SLV
we had no changes with respect to inventory at the SLV
THE SLV Inventory rests at: 364.523 million oz

2016年9月27日 星期二

美7月20大城市樓價指數漲5.02% 遜預期

on.cc東網專訊

【on.cc東網專訊】 標普/Case Shiller樓價指數顯示,美國7月份20大主要城市樓價指數按年升5.02%,少過市場預期5.1%;按月則跌0.01%,有別於預期的零增長。當中有6個城市,包括紐約及亞特蘭大等的樓價均錄得季節性下跌。

人仔息速遞:南商388天期存息3.38厘

on.cc東網專訊

【on.cc東網專訊】 南洋商業銀行推出最新人民幣定期存款年利率,3個月期、6個月年息分別為3.10%及3.20%,而388天期息口則3.38%,需新資金2萬元人民幣起。

美國年底加息機會大 銀行擬推定按搶客

on.cc東網專訊

【on.cc東網專訊】 市場對美國今年底加息預期高唱入雲,中國工商銀行(亞洲)金融市場部總經理詹偉基預期,明年美國進入加息周期及步伐常規化,港元拆息的抽升幅度或高於美元拆息,籲供樓市民留意定按計劃管理利率風險。有按揭部主管則指,已部署趁加息預期升溫前先行鎖定資金,擬明年推廣新定按計劃。

詹偉基相信明年市場對美國加息預期再升溫,明年可能加息2至3次,港元拆息會明顯上升,儘管現時3個月港元香港銀行同業拆息僅0.58厘,仍低於同年期美元倫敦銀行同業拆息0.86厘,惟相差不足30點子,料明年港元拆息隨時「升凸」,並高於美元拆息,籲供樓市民留意定息按揭計劃,若有適合的定按,用以管理按息上升風險。

市場對定按的採用程度與加息預期密不可分,金管局資料顯示,美國去年底啟動加息後,今年首季息魔陰霾困擾按揭市場,首兩個月定按採用比率均高於7%,3月更升至9.2%,儘管7月因英國脫歐公投而降溫,然而,有香港銀行按揭部主管透露,9月美國聯儲局加息機會回升,再有客戶對定按表示興趣,更趁美聯儲議息前率先提取定按貸款。

銀行界人士預期,今年底美國加息機會大,按揭市場或重現今年初對定按的需求,會與資金部門商討先行鎖定資金,部署明年推廣定按,以多元化產品應客,而且可以臨近議息時對沖成本太高。財資部人士則解釋,銀行的浮息按揭以活期或短期存款資金支持,成本低於需要額外進行利率掉期的定按,所以定按主要是應對市場需要。

中原按揭經紀董事總經理王美鳳表示,定按是由銀行承擔息率上升風險,所以定按息一般會較市場浮息按揭有溢價,借款人在加息前盡早提取貸款,溢價一般較少,屬於「較著數」,由於H按與P按息差已達48點子,王美鳳認為首年定按息的溢價若15點子之內已屬優惠,並指明年市場預期美國加息步伐更常規化,銀行將會更積極推出定按產品。

事實上,現時市場有多間銀行提供定按計劃,主要為首年定息,介乎1.75至1.88厘,與H按的實際按息最少相差不足10點子,用家若要慮較長加息周期的預算,交通銀行香港分行則提供較長年期定按,最長為首兩年定息2.48厘。

帝汶海爭議紛擾多年 未劃永久海上邊界

on.cc東網專訊

【on.cc東網專訊】 東帝汶獨立成國之前,當時的印尼政府就已經與澳洲簽署條約,解決帝汶海海域資源分配問題。後來到東帝汶獨立後,一直仍未有跟澳洲劃定永久海上邊界,兩國02年和06年分別簽署協議,劃定石油共同開發區的資源分配,但東帝汶認為應該獲得比目前更多資源,因此向海牙國際法院提出訴訟。

1989年澳洲跟印尼簽署帝汶海峽條約(Timor Gap Treaty),兩國則分享帝汶海峽的資源。2002年東帝汶獨立,東帝汶和澳洲簽署名叫「帝汶海協議」的臨時協議,協議劃定石油共同開發區,東帝汶可享有90%的石油收入,但兩國沒有劃定永久海上邊界。

在2006年,澳洲和東帝汶再簽署協議,根據協議,兩國各享有石油共同開發區的一半資源。但東帝汶認為,根據《聯合國海洋法公約》,澳洲得到的權益遠遠超過它應該享有的部分,東帝汶亦希望在澳洲與東帝汶之間劃定等距的邊界。然而澳洲政府表示,目前的安排與《聯合國海洋法公約》內容一致,並稱劃定等距邊界實際上將減少東帝汶的收入。東帝汶於是於今年4月向海牙仲裁法院提出申訴。

Insider Warren Buffet “Anticipating The Biggest Buying Opportunity Of His Life”: “$70 Billion On The Sidelines…”

www.silverdoctors.com

From Mac Slavo, SHTFPlan:

With the U.S. stock market near all-time highs and financial pundits touting the miracles of economic recovery, investors would have to be totally insane to not be snapping up as many stocks as they can get their hands on. But if America’s economy is doing so well, why are billionaires and major investment firms warning of rough waters ahead?

Even Warren Buffet, the Oracle of Omaha, known for his investing acumen and foresight, appears to see the writing on the wall. Having made billions in the fallout of the 2008 crash by taking advantage of lucrative government machinations, Buffet now looks to be positioning himself for a very massive buying opportunity. According to analyst Jeff Nielsen, the head of one of the largest investment companies in the world isn’t invested as heavily into stock markets as you may think. In fact, Nielsen says in his latest interview with SGT Report that Buffet has over $70 billion sitting in cash on the sidelines.

And that can mean only one thing: Buffet knows a crash is coming and he is waiting for perhaps the biggest buying opportunity of his lifetime.
Jeff Nielsen explains:

He’s sitting now with over $72 billion in idle capital. He’s 86-years old. He is a long-term value investor, which means by definition that basically all of your money is supposed to be working for you all of the time… and the only time you ever sit with a large amount of dry powder on the sidelines is when you’re expecting a big buying opportunity…

So here is 86-year old Mr. Buffet, who does most of his shopping on the S&P 500, clearly anticipating the biggest buying opportunity in his entire life because he has way more capital sitting aside than at any other time in four decades he has been running Berkshire Hathaway… So, the S&P 500 is sitting in record bubble territory and Warren Buffet is planning on going on a major shopping spree in the near future… what’s going to happen?
Full interview via SGT Report

Buffet has joined other billionaires in recent months to sit on the sidelines and wait for the crash that everyone knows is coming. And given that these insiders have essentially pulled the majority of their money out of risky markets with many shifting to collapse-proof assets like gold and silver, we must be very close to widespread financial and economic disaster.

統計處︰香港8月整體出口貨值按年彈0.8%

on.cc東網專訊

【on.cc東網專訊】 政府統計處對外商品貿易統計數字顯示,2016年8月香港整體出口和進口貨值均錄得按年增長,分別上升0.8%和2.8%。

繼7月份錄得5.1%的按年跌幅後,8月份轉口與港產品出口合計的商品整體出口貨值為3,097億港元,較2015年8月上升0.8%。其中8月份轉口貨值為3,057億元,上升0.8%,而港產品出口貨值為40億元,跌幅為3.4%。

同時,繼7月份錄得3.3%的按年跌幅後,8月份商品進口貨值為3,418億元,按年升2.8%。8月份錄得有形貿易逆差321億元,相等於商品進口貨值的9.4%。

首8個月的商品整體出口貨值較2015年同期下跌3.4%。其中轉口貨值下跌3.3%,而港產品出口貨值則下跌13%。同時,商品進口貨值下跌4.2%。今年首8個月錄得有形貿易逆差2,648億元,相等於商品進口貨值的10.5%。

政府發言人表示,商品出口貨值在8月份按年輕微回升;雖然輸往主要先進市場的出口繼續下跌,但輸往內地和部分亞洲市場的出口則錄得不同程度的升幅。展望未來,香港出口表現仍要視乎全球需求的情況。短期而言,由於部分先進經濟體脆弱的復甦、主要中央銀行的貨幣政策走向分歧、英國「脫歐」所衍生的不確定性,以及不少地區的地緣政治局勢緊張,外圍環境料將仍然不穩定。

James Turk Issues WARNING For Gold & Silver Bull Markets This Week, Also Covers Shrinkflation

kingworldnews.com

As we kick off the final week of trading in September, today James Turk issued a warning to King World News for this week regarding the gold and silver bull markets.

James Turk:  “September has so far been a good month for the precious metals, Eric. As of today’s close in New York, gold has risen 2.5% this month, while silver has jumped 4.7%…

So both metals are continuing the string of good months that we have seen so far this year, in which gold is up 26% and silver has risen an eye-watering 42%. It is amazing that gold and silver are getting so little attention with these fantastic year-to-date results, but that is typically the way new bull moves get started. The bull market train leaves the station with a lot of people waiting on the platform, hoping it returns for them to climb on board. But the odds of gold going back to $1,200 or silver to $18 get slimmer with each passing day.

CAUTION – Option Expiry Week
 

Nevertheless, we have to get ready for the next few days. We face another month-end option expiry, which starts tomorrow on the Comex and ends Thursday in the over-the-counter market. We know from experience that option expiry can be brutal. It looks like the slam down on Friday – particularly in silver – was contrived to set the stage for this week, namely, to keep precious metal prices under pressure so as many call options as possible expire out of the money.

So if this option expiry proves to be similar to just about every other option expiry we have seen for many years, we can forget about prices rising this week. Price manipulation at option expiry is just part of the picture of overall manipulation of the gold price. This manipulation has a couple of aims. First, it takes pressure off government central planners. When the electorate sees a rising gold price, people react. They intuitively know that a rising gold price is a red-flag signaling monetary problems, and policymakers don’t like to see their policies being discredited by market reactions.

Inflation & Shrinkflation
 

Usually these signals mean rising inflation, and we are seeing a lot of that this year. Commodity prices are rising pretty much across the board, and that is resulting in higher prices at the grocery store. There are also disguised price rises with shrinkflation – keeping the price unchanged for a smaller, poorer quality or otherwise inferior product.
 
The second aim of price manipulation is that it gives those bullion banks that act as an agent for the government to front-run trades and use other means to bolster their trading profits, like pressuring the gold price during option expiry to earn the premium on the calls they write. So the gold price manipulation is also a subtle way in which the government is bailing out banks. Instead of taking the money from taxpayers in a visible bail-out, which is politically difficult – particularly in an election year – the banks get bailed out by picking-the-pocket of market participants.

And we all know the banks need bailing out, particularly here in Europe. The share price of some of Europe’s big banks today hit record lows. In other words, their stocks are trading below where they were in the depths of the 2008 crisis. Imagine what it going to happen to bank shares prices when the next banking crisis gets underway, which may be soon. And that brings me back to gold and silver.

Buy The Gift Of The Gold & Silver Price Dips
 

Central planners can huff and puff, and they can fight the market through their ongoing interventions. But they cannot change the reality of insolvent banks and rising commodity prices. Nor can they stop gold, which explains why gold is on a deliberate and resolute one-way road of rising prices since its $20.67 per ounce price when the Federal Reserve was created in 1913.

To wrap up, Eric, gold and silver prices may remain weak during option expiry this week. The precious metals may even take it on the chin. But let’s look beyond this week. There is every reason in the world to keep accumulating physical gold and physical silver. What’s more, the downside pressure we normally see during option expiry is a good time to buy. As the old saying goes, in a bull market, always buy the dips. And gold and silver are in bull markets.

格陵蘭溶雪 恐爆輻射危機

文匯報

冰封半世紀 美軍核基地或重見天日 

全球暖化使格陵蘭的冰雪逐漸溶化,令當地一個遭冰封的冷戰時期美軍基地或重見天日。由於該基地充斥大量含輻射廢料,一旦露出地表,恐令污染物洩漏,引致環境污染甚至生態危機。至於應由誰負責清理基地核廢料的問題,至今仍未有定案。

美國在1959年獲格陵蘭當年宗主國丹麥同意,由美軍工程師建成該個名為「世紀軍營」的基地,可容納200名士兵,內裡的隧道網絡設有研究設施、醫院、戲院及教堂等,全部由一個核反應爐提供能源。官方宣稱基地是用作研究極地的實驗室,但實際上也是美軍部署核彈的秘密基地。

輻射劑重量如30架空巴 

不過科學家在基地建成後3年,發現格陵蘭冰川移動速度較預期快,有機會壓毀隧道,美國遂於1967年放棄基地,並移走核反應爐,但因認為基地將被永久冰封,故沒處理相等於30架空中巴士A320重量的低濃度輻射冷卻劑、用於建築物料的致癌物質「多氯聯苯」(PCBs),以及大量未經處理污水等污染物。研究顯示若情況不變,到2090年格陵蘭的降雪量將無法抵消冰雪溶化量,基地重見天日後溫度將上升,意味內裡的有毒污染物將會洩漏,而之前雪水也可能滲入基地,造成水污染。

丹麥奧胡斯大學研究「世紀軍營」計劃的科學史助理教授尼爾森認為,由於美國是獲丹麥同意後,負責在格陵蘭建造基地,代表雙方均有責任處理廢料,相信美丹兩國將聯手解決問題。

■法新社

澳洲大陸再移動 坐標位置需調整

on.cc東網專訊

【on.cc東網專訊】 地球上的各個大陸在構造板塊上不停移動,位處太平洋板塊的澳洲更以每年約6.9厘米移動。為了讓全球定位系統(GPS)更精準,澳洲的實際位置要再作調整。自1994年至今,澳洲已移動近1.49米。

專門處理地圖繪製的桑達(Damien Saunder)表示,陸地隨着時間的推移顯著轉變,需要修改地球模型,重新計算GPS的座標。雖然大多數市民的手機不具備如此精確水平,不過在農民噴灑農藥和自動導航系統上都需要較為精準的定位系統。

由於澳洲的地質形態獨特,移動速度較快,在過去50年來已經四次更正經緯度,上次調整在1994年。 Saunder指相比之下,北美板塊大約每年只移動2.5厘米,相對某些國家比較「穩定」。

迪泰特尋合作夥伴 或跟美「渡過盧比孔河」

on.cc東網專訊

【on.cc東網專訊】 菲律賓總統迪泰特於於周一透露,他於月初的東協峰會上,曾向俄羅斯總理梅德韋傑夫表示他可能跟美國「渡過盧比孔河」,轉向俄羅斯求助。

迪泰特稱並非真的與作為長期盟友的美國決裂,但會與中國及俄羅斯簽訂長期的貿易協議,更會租賃土地長達120年。他表示將會外訪日本及俄羅斯,在此前亦會前往中國會晤國家領導人。

「渡過盧比孔河」是西方諺語,當時羅馬法律禁止將領領軍越過盧比孔河,一旦越過等同叛變及內戰的不歸路,凱撒大帝曾在渡河前猶豫,最終仍渡過了盧比孔河並成為諺語由來。

德國地下碉堡建成 供超級富豪避核戰末日

on.cc東網專訊

【on.cc東網專訊】 如果你曾經看過災難片,一定會幻想當末日來臨的時候該怎麼辦。美國有一間公司專門為超級富豪建造奢華的地下碉堡,以抵擋核戰爆發及生態災難。他們第一個地下碉堡建在美國印第安那納州,而首個建在歐洲的地下碉堡近日已完成。

位於德國的碉堡名為Vivos Europa One,該巨大的地下建築群是由俄羅斯人在冷戰時期所興建,每道鋼門重40噸。據宣傳小冊子上的資料,該碉堡能夠抵擋核彈的直接攻擊、飛機撞擊、地震、海嘯及幾乎所有的武裝襲擊。

為了吸引超級富豪的青睞,該碉堡的建造堪稱為五星級,入面的設施可與豪華遊輪媲美,並擁有34個獨立的公寓,面積比一間普通的4房獨立屋還要大,可供富豪及其家屬們,甚至寵物一同入住,亦有足夠的食物供他們數年之用,更備有防輻射服、裝甲車及直升機等設備供住客屆時可以外出。

如此豪華奢侈的地下碉堡只供受邀請的超級富豪購買,因此價錢仍是保密,但會提供兒童優惠及第一隻家庭寵物可免費入住。惟不接受現金及信用卡付款,只接受金或銀,以配合他們尊貴的身份。

黑客冒CEO命秘書過數 又寄有毒CV扮見工

on.cc東網專訊

【on.cc東網專訊】 黑客入侵大公司電腦的手法五花八門。有黑客向大公司人事部「埋手」,假扮應徵者呈交的履歷(CV檔案),人事部不為意打開檔案即中招;有黑客更入侵CEO(公司行政總裁)的電腦,借CEO名義以電郵指示秘書或生意夥伴將款項存入另一銀行戶口。黑客近年亦愈來愈聰明,甚至可破解防毒軟件及防火牆,令人防不勝防。 

電郵騙案造成的損失大幅上升,今年首7個月已達12億港元,較去年同期大幅上升七成六,主要原因是以CEO為目標的電郵騙案極速上升,黑客除於事前詳細調查外,更專門向一些進行公司收購的大機構埋手,入侵CEO電腦後,以電郵訛稱「我依家喺中國收購緊一間公司,要秘密進行」,指示秘書或生意夥伴存款到新戶口。

另外,中文大學醫學院去年遭黑客勒索,1萬份病人資料盡失,全因員工不小心打開了釣魚電郵。警方指這些釣魚郵件像真度極高,黑客會向一些公司人事部埋手,假扮應徵者呈交的履歷,由於人事部經常收到應徵者的CV附件,防範意識大減,容易不為意打開附件;另有一些釣魚電郵會問你「開唔開巨集?」或登上超連結,其實亦是勒索軟件,一不小心亦會中招。

警方建議市民一旦發現電腦不幸被綁架或被黑客入侵,應立即停止上網,因黑客正是透過互聯網入侵電腦,最好同時移除連接電腦的USB記憶手指及硬盤,避免擴散入侵範圍,並要第一時間向警方求助,同時不要刪除資料。

扣檔案當人質 網絡綁匪單次擸款數億

所以電腦保安知識好重要, 而 backup 都是好重要 !

on.cc東網專訊

【on.cc東網專訊】 「如果你24小時內唔交贖款,我會每個鐘頭delete(刪除)你一個file(檔案)!」「網上綁架」犯案手法層出不窮,綁匪最近更玩「心理戰」,掌握受害人弱點,利用最新勒索軟件JIGSAW犯案,當受害人親眼目擊檔案每小時被逐一刪除,心裏焦急萬分,自然會立即就範繳付贖款;另有綁匪「扮好心」解除受害人部分被鎖檔案,博取受害人信任,令受害人相信只要繳交贖款便可「贖回」餘下資料,結果上當。

警方數字顯示,今年首7個月共接獲674宗「非法進入電腦系統」案件,較去年同期的747宗下跌,但涉及金額則高達13億港元,較去年同期的7.7億港元大幅上升近七成,當中不少涉及「網上綁架」案件,單一宗最大損失的案件涉款更高達數億港元。

警方表示,以往黑客進行網上綁架,最常見手法是以勒索軟件封鎖受害人的電腦檔案,然後要求受害人繳付贖款,但最近發現綁匪極懂得「捉心理」,今年初便有黑客利用一種名為JIGSAW的勒索軟件封鎖受害人檔案,然後發出通牒,指若24小時內不繳付贖款,便會每小時刪除一個檔案,警方指這種犯案手法無非是令受害人感覺急切,然後交出贖款。

另一種新犯案手法同樣「捉心理」,綁匪會先向受害人發出「你想唔想解鎖?」的訊息,並着受害人「揀三個檔案解鎖」,之後綁匪會守諾解鎖,博取受害人信任,部分受害人「上當」繳交贖款。

綁匪通常會要求受害人以虛擬貨幣如比特幣(BITCOIN)繳付贖款,令執法人員難以追查,現時1個比特幣相等於3000至4000港元,視乎市場價格而定,但綁匪一般不會要求太高贖金,「因明知太高,受害人唔會畀」,綁匪亦會教受害人如何繳付BITCOIN。

另外,警方亦發現有黑客在「暗網」出租勒索軟件,因而吸引「半桶水」綁匪租用,但他們進行網上綁架後,「識一半唔識一半,當勒索完,係完全唔識解鎖」,不少受害人繳交贖款後,最終還是無法取回檔案。

2016年9月26日 星期一

憂巨額訟費拖累 德銀股價瀉逾6%

on.cc東網專訊

【on.cc東網專訊】 市場擔心德意志銀行或受按揭證券違規銷售的巨額訴訟費影響,最後被迫進行集資。德銀曾挫6.88%至10.625歐元。

德銀行政總裁John Cryan指出,該行將會獨力面對挑戰,強調毋須德國政府插手干預,而且增加資本在現時並不急切。德國總理默克爾發言人亦澄清,外界猜測政府資助德銀是「沒有理由」的,並指政府不會參與其中。

德銀上月與美國司法部展開談判,遭要求140億美元和解費。

收市10大要知:觀望美總統辯論 道期挫百點

on.cc東網專訊

【on.cc東網專訊】 美國總統大選候選入今晚舉行首場大辯論,歐洲央行行長德拉吉亦將發話;市場避險情緒升溫,歐亞股市普跌,美元指數回至95.3,道期現顯著跌100點,報18,271點。以下為「收市10大要知」新聞:

1、歐股開市受壓 德銀挫逾4%
歐洲股市早段跟隨亞股向下,當中英國富時100指數報6,865點,跌43點或0.64%;法國CAC指數報4,450點,跌37點或0.84%;德國DAX指數報10,551點,跌75點或0.71%。
德銀挫逾4%,此前有報道指德國總理默克爾已排除向該行提供國家援助;高盛下調萊斯銀行評級至「減持」,並將目標價下調6%至50便士,萊斯銀行跌1.29%。

2、港股一度挫逾400點 騰訊回吐逾2%
美國總統大選殺入直路,市場避險情緒升溫;港股午後跌勢加劇,恒生指數曾挫逾400點,低見23,276點,跌穿10天及20天線;收市報23,317點,跌368點或1.56%。國企指數收報9,629點,跌166點或1.7%。主板全日成交645億港元,港股通餘額75.19億人民幣;滬股通餘額133.31億人民幣。
騰訊控股及建設銀行領跌,收市齊跌近2.4%,已合共拖低恒指100點。中國移動、友邦保險、長和集團及滙豐控股都跌逾1%。香港交易所先升後跌,收市跌近1%。
蘋果概念股捱沽,瑞聲科技跌4.7%,是表現最差藍籌,失守80港元。舜宇光學及高偉電子都跌逾3%。市傳iPhone 7系列銷售反應一般,另日本反壟斷監管部門考慮就蘋果公司壟斷日本手機市場的違法行為作出起訴,拖累蘋果上周五挫1.6%。(板塊追蹤http://bit.ly/2axLJ99)

3、滬指跌穿3000 藍寶石概念跌逾3%
滬深股市低開低走,滬綜指失守3,000關,全日收報2,980點,跌53點或1.76%,以近2個月低位收市;深成指跌217點或2.05%,報10,392點;滬深300指跌55點或1.69%,報3,220點;創業板指跌33點或1.56%,報2,122點。
滬市成交1,622億元人民幣,深市成交2,629億元人民幣。滬股通現淨餘額逾133億元人民幣。板塊方面,陶瓷股跌4.06%;水泥股跌3.49%;物資外貿股跌3.31%;藍寶石概念股跌3.23%;飛機製造股跌3.07%;綠色照明概念股跌3.01%;開發區股跌2.91%;次新股跌2.75%;發電設備股跌2.69%。

4、沙田第一城2房破頂! 癲賣478萬
沙田第一城上車指標的2房單位,終於突破去年樓市最高峰時的癲價,創歷史新高。屋苑本月暫錄約45宗買賣。
美聯翁凱傑稱,沙田第一城26座中層D室,實用面積326方呎,原開價468萬港元,以對上2房標準戶歷史新高價放盤,竟再反價10萬元,以478萬元售出,創下屋苑2房標準戶歷史新高價,實用呎價約14,663元。據了解,原業主2013年以359萬元購入上址,約3年升值約33%。

5、深圳「白鴿籠」涉違規 已取消交易
深圳南山區樓盤僑城尚寓提供的6平方米「白鴿籠」單位高價熱賣,成為近日內房焦點。然而,經當局查證後,相關單位涉嫌違規,而實際銷量為4伙,並已解除買賣協議。
深圳市規劃國土委表示,經核查所涉11套6平方米左右的房產戶型與規劃驗收竣工圖不符,實際在售面積約12平方米,其中1套約20平方米,超過部分佔用了建築公攤面積,涉嫌違法改建銷售。

6、灣仔分區大綱草圖覆核案 希慎終極上訴得直
2010年推出的灣仔、銅鑼灣分區大綱草圖施加多項建築限制,引起該區大業主希慎興業(00014)不滿並提出司法覆核。終審法院今天裁定希慎上訴得直,有關爭議發還城規會再處理。
判詞指,城規會新加設的建築限制牴觸《基本法》第6及第105條對私有財產權予以保護的條文。終審法院同時裁定維持上訴庭之判決,即有關爭議發還城規會再處理。
對於希慎興業就灣仔、銅鑼灣分區大綱草圖施加高限問題上訴得直,理想城市企業估值部主管張聖典表示,有關案例或會釋放部分用地發展密度,而香港地產建設商會等亦一直關注建築物高限問題,故是次分區大綱草圖發還城規會再考慮,城規會有機會一次過作出全面審視,而非等到受到發展商挑戰才個別去做。

7、榊原英資:圓匯掂80底線 就要同美國講數
有「日圓先生」之稱的日本財務省前副大臣榊原英資發表最新言論,指美元兌日圓處於95-100日圓區間時對於日本經濟是不錯的,日圓可能在2017年緩慢升至每美元兌90日圓,日本央行尚未失去對匯率的控制,但日圓一旦觸及每美元兌80日圓,就該與美國討論干預問題了。

8、卓百德:香港樓市已觸底
星級分析員、Portwood Capital主席卓百德表示,香港樓價在本年4、5月經已觸底,並且至今回升6至7%,除非中國或歐美出現重大的金融危機,例如歐盟解體,否則這回復的勢頭暫時不會倒轉。
卓百德又認為,雖然香港樓價仍然高企,但由於低息環境持續,令家庭的供樓負擔比率仍然強勁,而未來加息的次數和幅度亦預期不會多和快,這都對樓市復甦有利。


9、紅米手機3年銷售逾1.1億部 紅米Note 4售1499元
小米香港宣布,推出國際版新產品「紅米Note 4」,售價1,499港元,將在周二(27日)中午12時上市,於mi.com、旺角小米之家、全線csl專門店同步現貨開售。
紅米手機自誕生以來3年銷售超過1.1億部,在紅米手機的發展歷程上,小米公司創始人、董事長兼CEO雷軍重點提到了2款紅米手機,首款就是總銷量達到2,207萬部的紅米手機,另一款則是產品總銷量達到2,753萬部的紅米Note。

10、湯文亮:地產商首要確保不出現撻訂潮
紀惠集團行政總裁湯文亮撰文指,日前傳出有地產商向代理支付天價佣金去促銷數千萬港元的豪宅,如果真有其事,代表市場購買力開始消失。
購買力逐漸消失,但供應量並沒有消失,在供應充足,而購買力不足的情況下,樓價要有突破就非常困難。他指出,現在地產商首要的工作並非銷售,而是確保沒有撻訂潮出現,因為樓花期往往超過2年,如果在這期間出現一些不利樓市因素,令到已經買樓的人情願放棄訂金,這就大事不妙。

湯文亮:地產商首要確保不出現撻訂潮

money18.on.cc

紀惠集團行政總裁湯文亮撰文指,日前傳出有地產商向代理支付天價佣金去促銷數千萬港元的豪宅,如果真有其事,代表市場購買力開始消失,地產商即使付出3至4%佣金,亦不能吸引物業代理將客戶轉送。市場購買力逐漸消失,成交量亦會相應地減少。

購買力經過幾個月的衝刺之後,來自內地的購買力亦隨暑假結束而去,單憑香港本土購買力,是不足以支持樓市升勢。況且本土購買力已顯得審慎,從地產商的認購量就可以看到端倪。由以往大幅超額認購,至今只是足額認購。湯文亮指,足額認購的樓盤,最後賣出一半都算不俗。

雖然不少業內人士預期今年樓價可以升破去年高位,湯文亮就不認同。因為購買力逐漸消失,但供應量並沒有消失,在供應充足,而購買力不足的情況下,樓價要有突破就非常困難。預期樓市將會橫行一段時間,補充了一定的購買力後才會發力再上。

他又指,現在地產商首要的工作並非銷售,而是確保沒有撻訂潮出現,因為樓花期往往超過2年,如果在這期間出現一些不利樓市因素,令到已經買樓的人情願放棄訂金,這就大事不妙。

環球?鬆政策 支撐金價延漲

文匯報

英皇金融集團(香港)營業部總裁 黃美斯

在這個充滿變數的九月,歐洲央行、英國央行選擇按兵不動,而最為環球矚目的當是日本和美國的利率決議。日本央行和美聯儲上周均維持利率不變,各大央行的表現基本都符合預期。美國聯邦儲備理事會(FED)於9月21日的議息會後宣佈維持利率不變,但强烈暗示仍可能在年底前收緊貨幣政策,因就業市場進一步改善。黃金在美聯儲宣佈維持利率不變之後大漲,日內漲幅逾20美元。最活躍COMEX12月期金合約在決定宣佈的一分鐘內成交量達6,056手,價值逾8億美元買盤推升現貨黃金短線暴漲。

日本央行未令日圓貶值 

在低利率或負利率的環境下,金價年初以來已上漲24%。金價自七月起始出現一段向下修正走勢,至9月1日低見1,301.91美元,為6月24日以來最低水平;9月中旬金價再次逼近1,300美元關口,在連日探試下仍見守穩,結果在美聯儲議息結果公佈後,金價大幅走升,成功脫離千三關口,美聯儲推遲加息的市場預期為黃金價格提供支撐。與此同時,因日本央行利率決議未能讓日圓貶值,從而致使美元承壓,最終也助推了黃金價格的上漲。由於美聯儲12月加息的預期已在近月反映在金價弱勢當中,故此隨着美聯儲的加息步伐放慢,迎來第四季走勢,金價料可擺脫第三季的弱勢,重新再踏上升途。

印度黃金旺季 上望1373 

全球主要央行還在印鈔票,而主要經濟體低利率或者負利率橫行,創紀錄低點的全球利率水準,圍繞全球貨幣和主權債穩定性的不確定性增加,作為保值工具和替代投資,金價中期走勢可望繼續走高。傳統意義上,9月份以後,將踏入黃金的需求旺季,尤其印度亦即將迎來排燈節,被印度人視為一年中最重要的節慶,故亦可望會帶動黃金買興,從而帶動金價可在今年秋天再現強勢。

技術圖表分析,金價在過去三個月以來屢次守住100天平均線,在未有破位下,目前有機會探試上方的下降趨向線阻力位於1,349,若然這一道歷時三個多月的下降趨向線破位,則有望金價將見開展新一輪升勢,延伸目標預估為1,373及1,387美元。以黃金比率計算,中期目標可看至1,420水平,為50%的反彈水平。下方支持仍會矚目於100天平均線位置1,306以及1,300美元關口,較大支持參考估計在1,287美元。

倫敦白銀現時圖表上已呈現一組雙底形態,頸線將參考9月7月高位20.13美元,可視為一線關鍵阻力,破位將料會延伸漲勢,目標則會看至20.70及21.00美元。

Ghosting of Japan

www.bloomberg.com全文

By 2040, about half of Japan’s municipalities, or 896 towns and cities, will be on a course to future extinction as their numbers of women of reproductive age drop below levels needed to sustain them, according Japan Policy Council projections.

More than 20 percent of residential areas in Japan will become ghost towns by 2050, Japan’s land ministry forecasts. And data from the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research show a 16 percent population decline country-wide within 25 years, with 20 percent of municipalities experiencing a drop below 5,000 people. The “compact city” solution is being considered as a model for survival by these areas facing depopulation.

Citi Warns on Gold as Bank Boosts Odds of Trump Win to 40%

如果 Trump 贏, 金價大升 ?

www.bloomberg.com

  • U.S. ‘polls have started to tighten,’ Citigroup says in report
  • Presidential contest is ‘increasingly bizarre,’ bank says
Gold may be in for a bumpy ride in the final quarter as Republican candidate Donald Trump now has a 40 percent chance of winning the presidential election and investors will be preparing for the possibility of higher U.S. interest rates, according to Citigroup Inc.

Volatility in bullion and foreign-exchange markets may increase, according to a commodities report from the bank as it raised the odds on a Trump victory over Democrat Hillary Clinton in November from 35 percent. There would probably be a single U.S. hike by year-end, it said.

Bullion has rallied 26 percent in 2016, rebounding from three years of losses, as low or negative interest rates have bolstered demand. Political uncertainty has also played a part, with the U.K.’s vote to quit the European Union spurring haven demand. Forecasters including Singapore-based DBS Group Holdings Ltd. have said that the U.S. contest may buttress prices amid concern about the possible implications of a Trump presidency.

“Polls have started to tighten ahead of the U.S. presidential election, and Citi has raised the probability of a Trump victory,” the bank said in the note. “We expect a Trump win would bring out higher volatility in gold and forex, which in turn should lead to higher volumes in other precious metals.”

Spot gold was at $1,333.32 an ounce at 5:59 a.m. in London from $1,337.56 on Friday, with Citigroup seeing futures at $1,350 on a three-month basis and $1,270 on a six-to-12 month view. Under the bank’s base case it may be at $1,320 in the final quarter, or $1,425 under the bull case, which included the possibility of a Trump win.

Trump has proven to be a resilient if unconventional candidate, courting controversy with blunt remarks throughout his run for the White House to see off a crowded Republican field of contenders and face the former secretary of state. Among policy proposals, he’s attacked U.S. trade policy and threatened to build a wall along the border with Mexico.

The candidates are set to square off at Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York, on Monday, an event forecast to be one of the most-watched television events in U.S. history. Nationally, Clinton leads Trump by an average of 2.5 percent, according to polls tracked by the RealClearPolitics website.

“Citi’s base case is for a Clinton victory and mostly continuity in policies, which would leave U.S. and global growth expectations relatively unchanged,” the bank said, while describing the U.S. contest as “increasingly bizarre.”

“But a Trump victory is a wild card and Citi expects this, among lingering uncertainties from Brexit and elsewhere, may cap the prospects for global growth to pick up in the remainder of the year,” it said.

— With assistance by Jake Lloyd-Smith

Treasury Market’s Biggest Buyers Are Selling as Never Before

www.bloomberg.com

  • Central banks have cut Treasuries for three straight quarters
  • Pullback may be a sign the bond market is at a tipping point
They’ve long been one of the most reliable sources of demand for U.S. government debt.

But these days, foreign central banks have become yet another worry for investors in the world’s most important bond market.

Holders like China and Japan have culled their stakes in Treasuries for three consecutive quarters, the most sustained pullback on record, based on the Federal Reserve’s official custodial holdings. The decline has accelerated in the past three months, coinciding with the recent backup in U.S. bond yields.
 
For Jim Leaviss at M&G Investments in London, that’s cause for concern. A continued retreat could lead to painful losses in a market that some say is already too expensive. But perhaps more important are the consequences for America’s finances. With the U.S. facing deficits that are poised to swell the public debt burden by $10 trillion over the next decade, foreign demand will be crucial in keeping a lid on borrowing costs, especially as the Fed continues to suggest higher interest rates are on the horizon.
 
The selling pressure from central banks is “something you have to bear in mind,” said Leaviss, whose firm oversees about $374 billion. “This, as well as the Fed, all means we are nearer to the end of the low-yield environment.”

To shield his clients from higher yields, Leaviss said M&G has scaled back on longer-term Treasuries and favors shorter-maturity securities.
 
Overseas creditors have played a key role in financing America’s debt as the U.S. borrowed heavily in the aftermath of the financial crisis to revive the economy. Since 2008, foreigners have more than doubled their investments in Treasuries and now own about $6.25 trillion.

Central banks have led the way. China, the biggest foreign holder of Treasuries, funneled hundreds of billions of dollars back into the U.S. as its export-based economy boomed.
 
Now, that’s all starting to change. The amount of U.S. government debt held in custody at the Fed has decreased by $78 billion this quarter, following a decline of almost $100 billion over the first six months of the year. The drop is the biggest on a year-to-date basis since at least 2002 and quadruple the amount of any full year on record, Fed data show.

The custodial data add to evidence that the retreat isn’t simply a one-off. Separate figures from the Treasury Department showed that China pared its stake to $1.22 trillion in July, the lowest level in more than three years. Others, like Japan and Saudi Arabia, have also reduced their holdings this year.
 
Big holders of Treasuries are selling for a variety of reasons, but they’re all tied to each country’s economic woes. In China, the central bank has been selling U.S. government debt to defend the yuan as slumping growth leads to more capital outflows. Japan, the second-biggest foreign holder, has swapped Treasuries for cash and T-bills as prolonged negative rates in the Asian nation pushed up dollar demand at local banks.
 
Oil-producing countries like Saudi Arabia have been liquidating Treasuries to plug their budget deficits following the collapse of crude prices. Saudi Arabia’s holdings have declined for six straight months to $96.5 billion -- the lowest since November 2014.

“Their trade position is markedly worse” because of the slump in oil, said Peter Jolly, the head of market research at National Australia Bank Ltd. That means “their need to purchase Treasuries is greatly reduced.”
 
The decline in central bank demand -- which some models show has cut 10-year Treasury yields by an extra 0.4 percentage point -- points to one reason that U.S. borrowing costs may finally be on the upswing after they fell to a record-low 1.318 percent in July.

What’s more, some measures suggest Treasuries aren’t providing any margin of safety.
 
While 10-year notes yielded 1.62 percent as of 12:10 p.m. in Tokyo, that’s still leaves many overseas investors vulnerable. For yen- and euro-based buyers who hedge out the dollar’s fluctuations -- a common practice among insurers and pension funds -- yields are effectively negative. Meanwhile, a valuation tool called the term premium stands at minus 0.58 percentage point for 10-year notes. In the previous 50 years, it has almost always been positive.

Despite those warnings, the bulls say things like tepid U.S. growth and $10 trillion of negative-yielding government debt will keep Treasuries in demand.
 
“It’s still attractive of course,” said Hideo Shimomura, the chief fund investor at Mitsubishi UFJ Kokusai Asset Management, which oversees about $118 billion. “People might begin to chase yields again.”

Homegrown demand has helped pick up the slack. Excluding short-term bills, U.S. money managers have snapped up 45 percent of the $1.1 trillion in Treasuries sold at government auctions this year, the highest share since the Treasury began breaking out the data six years ago. In 2011, it was as low as 18 percent. U.S. commercial banks, for their part, have also added to their investments of government debt, boosting stakes to a record $2.38 trillion at the end of August.