2012年11月30日 星期五

What Japan Is Going To Do To Light The Gold Market On Fire


Today 25-year veteran Caesar Bryan told King World News that the Japanese are getting ready to enter the gold market in size.  Here is what Bryan, from Gabelli & Company, had to say about this fascinating situation:  “Last time we spoke we talked a little bit about what was going on in Japan.  Two days ago a former advisor to the LDP, Abe, came out with some advice that the Bank of Japan should add another $60 trillion yen, which is about $750 billion, to the monetary base.”

Caesar Bryan continues:

“He then said this would cause the yen to fall to 100 yen to the dollar, from its current value of 82.  This in turn would raise the CPI inflation rate to Abe’s target zone of 2% to 3%.  So this was more talk about what Abe would do should he become Prime Minister following the election in Japan on December 16th.

Now if the yen falls back to 100, we believe that would be very positive for the Japanese equity market....

“But certainly taking the yen back to where it was in 2009 would not only be very good for the equity market, but also extremely positive for the gold market. 

The bottom line is that a weakening yen will encourage Japanese investors to buy gold.  So we can expect more monetary easing in Japan and that’s the continuing investment theme as we look into 2013. 

Coming back to the United States, all of this deficit and fiscal cliff talk, the obvious conclusion is that it’s going to be really hard to cut spending.  The US will also have a difficult time raising revenues so it will have to continue with an extraordinarily loose monetary policy.  The path of least resistance is for continued Fed easing.

Moving on to Europe, there is a quasi-religious fervor or belief behind this euro project.  There again, they sort of patched up the Greek situation with a scheme for them to buy back their bonds at 28% of par, and for the rest of the eurozone to finance that.

But meanwhile, the underlying competitive issue remains.  The Greek economy is not competitive so there is going to have to be an internal devaluation.  Workers in Greece are going to have to be prepared to make less money in order to be competitive with the rest of Europe.  This is going to be a hard reality for the Greeks, and to a lessor extent in Spain as well.”

Bryan also added:  “As I mentioned previously, we are going to see continued high deficits here in the United States, financed by the central bank.  This is going to be incredibly constructive for the gold market and other hard assets.

There has been some volatility in the gold market, and I think that is its job, to frustrate buyers and holders.  But there is absolutely no question in my mind that it is going to be heading higher.  We sort of had that break in October, but I should point out that gold will divorce itself from the dollar index at some point.

Investors should no longer concern themselves with the action in the dollar or other currencies.  This is a case of owning gold as a hedge against all fiat currencies because they will all continue losing value vs gold.”

Clean a tarnished 1990 Kookaburra?

收藏幣唔可以清理, 會減收藏價值 !

舊版笑翠鳥的深色邊圈, 是正貨的保正 !


it would ruin any collector value and NO - DONT CLEAN IT!!!!

Do not clean Perth mint coin's, ever

1990 Kooks weren't restruck - the full run of 300,000 were minted that year. Presumably there's been substantial population shrinkage over the years. I would never clean a 1990 Kook. Even toned they still attract very good premiums over spot - and because of the capsule lack of seal, i reckon 99% would have significant edge toning. Key date for a collection.

貴金屬低水 買ETF長線釣大魚

不嬲叫人, 為安全起見, 唔好買紙資產, 因為如果全球金融體系出事, 你手上的紙資產一樣可以變為零 !

自己財自己理最安全 !

有人說, 銀行紙金紙銀, 只要銀行唔關閉, 是好安全的 !

一但金融大亂, 金銀價格大升, 唔好說銀行可以改條例, 只要你個時才去銀行取錢去買實貨, 如太多人做呢個動作, 可能你會買唔到實貨啦 !

實貨的好處是可以慢慢儲, 唔可以一次過大手買入, 第一因為貨源短缺, 而第二因為貨重, 除非你揸車去取貨 !

就算俾你一次過大手買入紙金紙銀, 一個大浪, 可以嚇到你中途沽貨離場, 好難持貨到高峰 ! 而實金實銀, 因為較難炒出炒入, 所以你會坐定定, 睇浪花, 持貨到終點 !

有人問為何只買金銀, 唔買鉑金 ?

因為金銀是錢, 而鉑金是工業金屬 !




  今日上市的實物貴金屬ETF包括 ETFS黃金 (02830)、ETFS白銀 (03117)及ETFS鉑金(03119),是ETF Securities (Hong Kong) Limited首批在聯交所推出的ETF,全部以相關金屬的倫敦市場的定價作基金計價基準。




  而黃金因有投資用途及央行增持,所以可穩步上升,形成一個獨特的現象。她認為上月出現短暫下跌,是因為「黃金大國」印度就買金作出規限,但未幾 中國的增持量已經追過印度,金價又復獲支持。而且市場上的投資者仍然對金價走勢持非常樂觀的態度,她以金價回落時SPDR仍然大手增持黃金為例,說明投資 市場對金的需求之殷。

  至於白銀方面,劉氏認為它的作用介乎鉑金及黃金之間,當金額達至一定高位之時,白銀便成了黃金的替代品,「以最愛買金保值的印度人為例,他們不 是人人有足夠的錢不斷買入黃金,所以亦會買入白銀作保值,始終銀都是貴金屬。」她指,白銀的價格一般波動較細,料未來一段時間亦會窄幅上落為主,但白銀走 勢容易分析,技術上如可突破每盎司35美元的,即可望44美元。但她期望上升速度不要太快,因會快上快落,恐中炒家之計。

  「經濟不會永遠好,亦不會永遠那樣差。」對於鉑金,劉認為現時是低水,鉑金仍比黃金價低,主要原因是環球經濟仍存太多不明朗,工業仍未有明顯起 色,主要用於工業中鉑金供應需不增加,卻因需求減而一直受壓。劉艷玲認為鉑金下行的空間很少,加上近一年都在1380美元至1700美元之間遊走,現時投 資於相關產品亦無不可,不過宜有耐心去等待經濟好轉。劉艷玲建議投資者買賣商品ETF 應以長線投資為目標,尤其是貴金屬方面的ETF。


  其實,本港近年積極審批ETF,望可吸引各行各業投資者,今年至今香港共有35隻新ETF上市,並有多個突破,包括首雙人民幣ETF、首隻 RQFII A股實物ETF及首隻同時以人民幣及港幣交易的雙櫃台ETF。業內人士料下一輪的新上市ETF將會轉向商品類為其中一大部分,以豐富香港市場的投資產品種 類,同時為收購LME之後成為商品期貨交易中心而鋪路。

Gold Falls Just 1.3% Despite Massive, Odd 3.5 Million Ounce Sell Orders


NOVEMBER 29, 2012

Gold fell $22.10 or 1.27% in New York yesterday and closed at $1,719.20/oz. Silver slipped to a low of $32.92/oz and rallied back, but finished with a loss of 0.91% at $33.69/oz.

Gold recovered somewhat overnight in Asia and again today in Europe despite the sharp selling seen on the COMEX yesterday.

As ever, it is very difficult to pinpoint exactly why gold and all precious metals fell in price. Interestingly, oil fell by even more - NYMEX crude was down by 1% and was down by more than 1.7% at one stage.

The CME Group, which operates the U.S. COMEX gold futures market, said Wednesday's plunge in gold was not the consequence of a "fat finger" or a human error. The trading wasn’t even fast enough to trigger a pause on Globex, said CME.  

One thing that we can say for certain was that there was massive, concentrated selling as the New York stock markets opened with some 35,000 lots sold which is equivalent to 3.5 million ounces and saw the price fall from $1,735/oz to $1,711/oz between 0825 and 0830 EST.

One sell order alone was believed to be 24 tonnes or 770,000 troy ounces.  Incredibly there was 35% daily volume in just 60 seconds.

The selling, like all peculiar, counter intuitive, sharp sell offs in recent months, was COMEX driven with COMEX contracts slammed leading to further stop loss selling.

The selling may have been by speculative players on the COMEX. It may have been algo or computer trading driven or tech selling – although this is less likely.

It would be naive to completely discount the possibility that a bullion bank, short the gold and silver markets, may have been trying to protect their large concentrated short positions. The CFTC data shows some bullion banks continue to have massive concentrated short positions - which are still being investigated.

Informed commentators questioned the nature of the selling as a large institutional COMEX trading entity would normally gradually sell a position of this size in order to maximise profit.

Gold Spot $/oz, 3 days 3 minutes – (Bloomberg)

Other speculation was that because of the wholesale liquidation of all precious metals and some other commodities, the selling may have come from a fund forced to sell a range of speculative positions after the SAC Wells notice.

Futures and options expiration may have also played a role, according to some analysts.
The robustness of gold overnight and recovery this morning is encouraging as normally one would expect to see follow through selling after such a sharp move lower.

The gold mining stocks indices were also higher yesterday which suggests that some precious metal market participants see the move as another mere blip in the precious metal bull markets.

The fundamentals driving the gold market remain very sound with broad based demand - store of wealth, investor, institutional and central bank - continuing to be seen globally.

There have not been very significant increases in open interest on the COMEX and there is no mania on trading floors and universal bullishness.

Indeed, this is far from the case today. There continues to be little or no positive coverage of the precious metals in the non specialist financial media.

While ETF holdings are at record highs - the increase in holdings has been tentative and gradual with no huge jump in demand which would be associated by a market top.

The shoeshine girls and boys have been selling large amounts of gold jewellery in the international phenomenon that is 'cash for gold.'

Meanwhile figures for mints, refiners and bullion dealers in last quarter show retail investor interest is tepid at best.

Gold Spot $/oz, Daily – (Bloomberg)

Physical buyers should use the paper playing shenanigans of as yet unidentified players to continue to accumulate on price dips.

Today US GDP for Q3 is released at 1330 GMT.

2012年11月29日 星期四

Leeb - Gold, Silver & Natural Gas Are Going To Soar


Today acclaimed money manager Stephen Leeb spoke with King World News about gold, silver and natural gas.  Here is what Leeb had to say:  “I noticed that natural gas is trading somewhere around $3.75.  What’s significant is that the price of natural gas today is about what it has averaged over the past four years.  The reason four years is important is because it marks the time when unconventional or fracking gas came into its own.”

Stephen Leeb continues:

“That’s when we started seeing this huge pickup in natural gas.  We have had all of this talk about all of these additional gas supplies, and yet you still have natural gas sitting at $3.75.  We also still have every dedicated fracker, whether you are talking oil or natural gas, basically losing money once you subtract out capital expenditures.

A fracked oil well sometimes depletes at a rate of 60% per year....

“So in order to continue increasing production you have to keep adding more and more rigs.  That’s why you see these capital expenditures going through the roof.  Rigs take a lot of money to build and it takes a lot of people to run rigs.  The late Matt Simmons once told me that you really needed something like $8 natural gas in order for the energy that you put into a well to equal what you get out.  We are nowhere near $8 right now on natural gas.

The fact that natural gas is now heading higher is beginning to make people realize that fracking has its problems.  So the US is telling people that our new energy policy is this fantastic new technology called, ‘fracking.’  Yes, it does produce a lot more gas and a lot more oil, but at a cost, and right now the cost is higher than current market prices.

This is no way to become energy independent.  We are not creating policies that are going to sustain growth in this country.  Nobody is even talking about growth in this country.  Taxing and reducing expenditures, that’s not a recipe for growth.  That’s a recipe for further catastrophe.

When I watch what is happening I keep wondering, how much money is the Fed going to print?  And when does inflation really start to take hold?  It’s just a matter of time, Eric.  The endgame here is just more money printing to keep the economy going.

As the world really begins to look seriously at the energy problems we face going forward, governments will start to realize the strategic importance of silver.  Silver is a better buy than gold.  Silver is going to play a vital role in producing energy around the globe.  Japan is turning to solar.  Saudi Arabia is turning to solar.  Virtually every major country in the world is turning to solar.  There is not going to be enough silver to satisfy the demand for solar energy.

Silver has not broken $50 yet, but when I say silver is going to be a 3-digit commodity, it will be.  These small silver stocks, they are the ones that are really going to be a big hit.  What really worries me about silver, Milton Friedman said silver was the first monetary metal.  Silver will benefit from the monetary catastrophe that is in front of us because it is a monetary metal.  But silver is also needed for cell phones, energy, computers, automobiles and so on.

A Stanford professor, Mark Jacobson, wrote a cover story in Scientific American in late 2009.  He said that in order for the world to ween itself from hydrocarbons, we are going to need four or five terawatts of electricity.  The amount of silver that would be needed for that is more than exists in the ground.

So in the future when silver is well above $100 an ounce, you are likely to see governments saying to people, ‘You can’t buy silver anymore.’  The price of silver will be going ballistic, but the mines will continue to produce because the governments will continue to need every ounce of silver they can get.

The bottom line is we are looking at the beginning of what’s likely to be a massive boom in these monetary metals, but silver, in particular, is really going to soar.”

2012年11月28日 星期三

Cartel Raid in Progress As Gold & Silver Plunge


The cartel has just launched a major raid on gold and silver the morning after gold’s December options expiration, with gold smashed to $1710, and silver down nearly a dollar to $33.13.

*Update: 2nd wave in progress, silver smashed to $32.83, gold to $1704

With raids of this magnitude, the cartel will typically attempt to trigger a second cascade of sell stops and initiate a 2nd raid. Look for a 2nd raid to attempt to stuff gold back below $1700, and silver under the critical $32.60 resistance. While they may touch these levels during a raid, physical buying is so strong in London and Asia that the cartel has little chance for success at keeping gold and silver under the critical levels.

Stocks dead, bonds deader till 2022: Pimco

本人還是認為, 少買紙資產為妙 !


By Paul B. Farrell, MarketWatch 

SAN LUIS OBISPO, Calif. (MarketWatch) — 

Big money managers are warning investors. They’re now citing the Bible: “Seven lean years.” No recovery till 2016. That was Jeremy Grantham back a few years ago. His GMO firm manages $104 billion. 

Now Bill Gross and Mohamed El-Erian, the co-CEOs at the $2 trillion Pimco money managers, are citing the same biblical warning to jar investors awake and prepare for the coming lean years of slow, low growth and austerity. Except in Pimco’s new warning, the future just got much, much darker for investors — no recovery until 2022. 

Earlier in the summer — back when most investors were totally distracted by campaign drama and betting heavily on a new president, anticipating a post-election bull market — many were expecting Corporate America would unleash trillions in hoarded reserves, stimulate a recovery and new bull. Back then, Reuters, Forbes, CNBC, Bloomberg, the Wall Street Journal and rest of the obsessed media simply yawned at Gross and El-Erian’s warning that equities hit a “dead end in terms of significant appreciation.” 

“Dead end?” No recovery till after the 2020 elections? Yes, one angry headline even said Gross was “faithless” with stocks. Why? Conventional wisdom tells us markets run in cycles. So investors believe it’s now time for a new bull. Gross and El-Erian disagree.
Warren Buffett and Jack Bogle first mentioned a “new normal” with slow, low growth back in 2002. It fell on deaf ears. Since the 2008 meltdown the same warnings are coming from gurus like Grantham, Gross, El-Erian and others. Ignore their warnings at your peril.

America’s economy, markets downshifting to long, low, slow-growth

Perhaps the single best description of America’s historic shift comes from Time magazine’s economics editor, Rana Foroohar, in “Why Stocks Are Dead (And Bonds Are Deader).” That column’s a must-read to help America’s 95 million investors understand the American economy and markets — from the Reagan/Bush generation ... to the bank meltdown in 2008 ... to the dark forecasts about the coming decade.
Here’s a summary of 10 points Foroohar picked up from meetings with El-Erian and Gross.

1. America fell in love with a Goldilocks economy 

As early as 2005 Pimco warned that investors, voters and politicians had fallen in love with “a Goldilocks economy, the notion that markets were in a long period of growth and stability, neither too hot nor too cold.” El-Erian “never believed the bull” about wise “world’s central bankers and the seemingly endless growth of emerging markets.”

2. Economists predicting 3% to 4% growth are misleading America

Pimco was “quick to see, post-2008, the passing of an era,” says Foroohar. The unthinkable was happening: “The U.S. flirting with default, unlimited central-bank money dumps were suddenly happening.” Worse, today “while most experts (including those within the Obama administration) were plotting how to move from recession back to the trend growth rate of 3% or 4%,” Pimco concluded that a low 2% growth will probably be the New Normal “not for a couple of years but for decades.”

3. Warning: Too many investors, banks, politicians still in denial

Many investors are still disappointed with their nest eggs, in denial, ignoring Pimco’s message, trapped in wishful thinking, hoping for a return of the short-term bull-bear cycles common in recent decades, unwilling to face the harsh reality of the New Normal with slow growth everywhere: consumer spending, jobs, government revenues, corporate earnings, stocks, bonds, commodities, even America’s role in the world. 

4. Investing is like surfing and the money wave may soon crash

Surfing is a popular Gross metaphor: Imagine waves of investor opinions moving stock prices. Whether surfing or investing, you “ride the wave,” sense the crest, always knowing that “ultimately a good surfer has to kick out.” Or get wiped out “when the wave crashes. And the money wave, says Gross, may be ready to crash.”

5. The stock market is a Ponzi scheme ... get out now

In fact “Gross recently stunned the markets by calling equities a Ponzi scheme,” says Foroohar, “warning investors they will never see 6% real returns again and would be lucky to get 3%.” Worse, investors are going to pay a stiff price for the Fed’s cheap money today: Inflation, stagnating growth, skyrocketing costs of borrowing, real estate and stock prices, consumer spending ... all dropping. Foroohar says two of “the world’s best surfers are saying, ‘Get out of the water.’” Now.

6. Bernanke’s cheap money is killing our long-term recovery

“Since the 1980s, central bankers worldwide have begun to use low interest rates and large cash infusions to ease, smooth and stretch those cycles.” Then, politicians made things worse, providing “voters with a cushy ride.” So the public added record “amounts of debt to buy stocks and houses, hoping their value would keep rising so we could buy more of everything else,” says Foroohar.

7. Bernanke can’t prop up our economic bubble much longer

Pimco warns that America’s been “riding the crest” of a money wave from three rounds of quantitative easing, “one reason the stock market took off earlier this year.” Gross and El-Erian took advantage of the Fed’s cheap money: Their “flagship Total Return Fund has outperformed its category for the past five years, returning 9.7% this year, nearly 3 percentage points better than the category.”

8. Politicians are clueless economists making our slow growth slower

Inept politicians are a big problem: Pimco adds “neither party really seems to understand that credit as a fuel for capitalism is basically exhausted.” Foroohar calls this a “chicken-and-egg cycle: the financial crisis demanded that the Fed pump even more money into the system to avoid a depression. But Washington, which should have then helped remedy the situation with growth-enhancing programs ... has remained gridlocked.”

9. Congressional Budget Office warning: 2.4% GDP growth as far as 2022

Washington gridlock has shaped their biblical warning: It’s “a seven-years-feast-and-seven-years-famine-type situation,’ says Gross. ‘And we’ve been feasting for 20 or 30 years.’ The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, which predicts 2.4% yearly growth as far ahead as 2022, seems to agree.” Growth under 3% “limits our national wealth and well-being in the long term,” El-Erian told Foroohar. “This is the first generation that’s seriously at risk of doing less well than their parents.”

10. Defensive investing: some tips for bad-news markets

How to invest in a recession that could become a depression? Gross and El-Erian passed on to Foroohar the best of strategies that have helped Pimco build its $2 trillion portfolio. First, remember: “Almost anything that we do in the future won’t be as high-returning as what you are used to,” says Gross. Double-digit returns are dead. Soon the Fed’s zero interest rates will be gone. 

So where’s Pimco making bets? Next, remember, “the stock market as a whole may be a Ponzi scheme,” but “blue chips have become the new bonds. Plus multinationals Coca-Cola, Procter & Gamble, and IBM can spread risk globally “while delivering a 3% inflation-beating dividend.” Also “well-capitalized, growing firms that are undervalued because they are in beleaguered markets,” like Spain’s Santander Bank are opportunities.
Avoid long bonds of nations with big political risks. But consider “higher-yielding debt of countries like Mexico and Brazil.” Gross and El-Erian favor “housing and anything housing-related,” like contractors and lumber companies. Their stock picks include: commodities, investment protected bond, high-grade munis and non-dollar denominated emerging countries. Their pans are banks and financial stocks, high-yield bonds and long bonds in big developed countries like the U.S., U.K. and Germany. 

Finally, safety is key to Pimco’s strategies. Foroohar says, Pimco’s leaders will “continue to plot and plan and invest in the New Normal, watching the horizon for the crest of that money wave, hoping to keep riding it for a while longer ... before it finally crashes to shore.”

Jim Willie: Immutable Gold Laws

www.silverdoctors.com 全文

-the Gold Standard will return out of the force of value and valid solution
-the Zero Percent Interest Rate Policy assures the continued Gold Bull Market
-the continued Quantitative Easing assures the shrinking profit margins, job cuts, reduced business
-the ZIRP & QE assure eventual USGovt debt default and systemic failure
-criminal activity is rising to keep the fiat paper currency system in place
-with the rise in official govt gold accounts demanded for repatriation,
-the movement of large Gold volume from London to East brings with it a grand shift in geopolitical power
-the advent of Gold Wars comes after sovereign bond busts, allocated gold account demands
-a Wild Card comes with the imminent death of King Abdullah, as the House of Saud will fall
-with it goes the Petro-Dollar, a crippling blow to the USDollar itself
-the Gold Price will break out in all major currencies, having been led by the EuroGold price

2012年11月27日 星期二

2013 Britannia 999 銀幣


根本是廠的問題, 而唔係德國幣商的問題, 所以唔關平唔平的問題, 就連英國人都收到殘幣 !

好彩 SCS 個批貨幣商肯收返 !

“Gold From The ATM” In Turkey


Gold rose $21.80 or 1.26% in New York on Friday and closed at $1,751.20. Silver hit a high of $34.16 and finished with a gain of 2.19%. Gold was up 2.28% for the week and silver soared 5.61% for the week.
Gold edged down on a Monday as speculators took their profits as prices rallied on thin volumes on Friday to their highest in a month on technical buying.  A strong fall in the greenback triggered rapid gains in commodities and options-related buying on Friday.
Tonight US Congress will meet to attempt to devise a plan to avert the US fiscal cliff which will throw the US into a spiral of tax hikes and budgetary cuts that will lead the US economy deeper into a recession this January.

Another short term ‘resolution’ will almost certainly be achieved which will allow the US to keep spending like a broke drunken sailor and which will again store up far greater fiscal and monetary problems. The scale of these deep rooted structural challenges is so great that they are likely to affect the US sooner rather than later.
The euro racked up a seven month high against the yen and is holding near a one month high against the US dollar as the meetings amongst Greek creditors continue and hope to reach an outcome today.
Greece’s goal is reducing the 190% debt to GDP ratio to a more manageable 120% in eight to ten years. The dilemma is that the IMF and eurozone finance ministers want to cease payments until a new deal is agreed because they have no guarantee that the financing won’t continue indefinitely.
Can Greek debt become manageable without creditors writing off some of the loans?  France and Italy would vote to reduce interest repayments on already granted loans while other countries like Germany would not.
A consensus was reached when German central bank governor Jens Weidmann suggested that Greece could "earn" a reduction in debt it owes to euro zone governments in a few years if it diligently implements all the agreed reforms. The European Commission also supports this view.

Global investment demand for gold remains robust with the amount in exchange-traded products backed by the metal rising 0.1% to 2,606.3 metric tons.

Meanwhile reports of the death of the Indian gold buyer have again been greatly exaggerated as India's net gold import for domestic consumption is likely to be about 800 tonnes this year following a pick-up in demand during the festive season, according to the World Gold Council (WGC).
Last year, the net import for domestic consumption was 969 tonnes. This is a significant fall but not surprising considering the sharply rising price. It shows that the Indian cultural attachment to gold will continue and India may be becoming acclimatised to higher gold prices. 
This week US economic data for Tuesday include Durable Orders, the Case-Shiller 20-city Index, Consumer Confidence, and the FHFA Housing Price Index.  On Wednesday, New Home Sales and the Fed’s Beige Book are published. On Thursday, Initial Jobless Claims, GDP, and Pending Home Sales can be viewed.  Friday’s data is Personal Income and Spending, Core PCE Prices, and Chicago PMI.
Gold deposits in Turkey have grown from 3.1 billion liras to 16 billion liras in the past year, Bloomberg reported on news reported in the daily Turkish newspaper Aksam which cited Denizbank AS gold banking group manager Cem Turgut Gelgor.
According to the Turkish bank Denizbank, one of the largest in Turkey, it collected 1.5 tons of gold in 7 months.
Deposits have increased from 500 kg to over 6 tons or over 192,000 ounces (worth some €260 million) over an unspecified period.
Kuveyt Turk Katilim Bankasi AS has added 3.8 tons of gold, Aksam quotes Kuveyt Turk product development group manager Mustafa Dereci as saying. Dereci said that Kuveyt Turk is providing new products such as “gold from the ATM.”
The World Gold Council estimates that there are around 5,000 tons of gold remaining outside the financial system, gold which the Turkish people have prudently accumulated over the years as a store of wealth to protect from currency depreciation and debasement.

Gold jewellery producer and wholesaler Karakas Atlantis Kiymetli Madenler AS is “working to bring unregistered gold into the system,” Chairman Kamil Karakas says in e-mailed statement today reported on by Bloomberg.
The gold wholesaler is meeting regularly with jewelers and banks in effort to draw unregistered gold assets into financial system.

Separately Turkey is aiming to position itself as a leading player in the gold jewellery and bullion industry by also becoming one of the leading gold and precious metal refining countries in the world.
Turkey is at a level to compete with international gold refining centers like Germany and Switzerland, Istanbul Gold Exchange deputy chairman Osman Sarac said today according to Dunya newspaper.
Turkey imports scrap gold mostly from Germany and the United Arab Emirates, the gold is turned into standard bullion coins and bars in Turkish refineries and exported.

Turkey imported 114.8 tons of gold by Nov. 14 this year, of which 46.6 tons was scrap, according to Istanbul Gold Exchange data.

2012年11月26日 星期一

美元回調 金銀強勢上攻


英皇金融集團(香港)總裁 黃美斯 

 據報道稱歐盟國家領導人已放棄在本次歐洲理事會峰會上就新的未來多年預算進行談判,自然也就無從達 成協議,相關談判將推遲到明年年初。不過希臘獲援樂觀預期以及德國IFO數據利好提振市場,推動股市大幅上揚,風險偏好情緒令美元全線走低。美元錄得五周 來首周下跌,最低觸及80.128,收報80.192。 

 沉寂兩周多之黃金,上周五終見來一段強勢上攻,並且為逾一個月以來首次升穿1750水平,最高觸 及1754.10美元;因美元走弱,及期權相關買盤觸發黃金突破關鍵技術位。金價紐約時段激發顯著升勢,關鍵時刻在於其突破了50天平均線,在過去一個多 月,金價一直未能升穿此一重要技術阻力位。除了技術上之突破,金價亦受益於美元下跌1%,因歐元走強,受助於希臘救助計劃希望及德國企業信心意外上升。 


 技術分析而言,倫敦黃金在過去兩周波幅持續收窄,於前一周守住了關鍵之心理關口1,700美元,低 位僅觸及1704.69美元;接著於上周一大幅反撲,自開市1,713水平升至1,735美元水平,但在周三又一度回探1,720水平,此後直至周四陷於 1,730美元附近窄幅徘徊,並陷於一個小型三角的末端,結果周五終作出突破,先是升破三角頂部位置1734美元,緊接衝破另一關鍵50天平均線,成功登 陸1,750美元水平上方。鑑於9天平均線已見上破25天平均線,呈中線利好交叉,RSI及隨機指數亦持續上攀,預料本周金價仍會更傾向持穩走高。初步阻 力可留意1,758及1,774美元水平,進一步目標為1,785美元;至於在10月份未能僭越之1,800美元關口,可望金價此回有力再次挑戰此區,並 會判定金價能否迎來新一輪上衝行情。支持位則會回看1,742及1,731美元,另外亦要留意關鍵位置在1,727美元,為自月初至今之短期上升趨向線, 若跌破,則扭轉了此段上升行情,再而下試水準有機會回探1,716及1,701水平。本周早段預估黃金波幅在1,745至1,767美元。 

 倫敦白銀上周追隨一眾商品揚升,原先已見緩步探高著,至周五亦見爆發上揚,最高觸及34.13美 元,創一個多月高位。由於前期銀價波幅大致處於32至33美元區間,而上周作出之突破,亦是一個較強力之技術突破徵兆;此外,由於9天平均線亦見上破25 天平均線,估計銀價傾向維持上試,預料較近目標先為34.50美元,其後則可挑戰35.10及10月初高位35.36美元。



1. 馬年、羊年經濟可能有回吐壓力,到時供應量大返,唔會樂觀。
2. 住宅有泡沫,無謂同人搶,我寧願買商廈保值。
3. 所有№都係用邏輯睇,一個循環,我唔信樓市有升無跌!
4. 買住宅要買抗跌力強,太古城、海怡半島這類藍籌就最好,千祈唔好買邊緣位。
5. 香港人買樓好羊群,貴的時候爭住買,平的時候無人睇。
6. 逆市買№,財富先會突然急增,大家都等緊一個機會,靠的是實力、膽色、眼光。
7. 而家舖租升到咁高,丟空唔奇,1厘回報仲要有風險,做人仔定期都有3厘啦!
8. 細個時候有間房就好叻,而家有間房係基本要求,所以睇好之後3至4房需求好大。


Depopulation 在進行中 !


香港文匯報訊(記者 杜法祖)荃灣深夜有「喪屍」出沒。一名90後迷幻青年,前晚疑吸食新興毒品「浴鹽」後頓變「喪屍」,如行屍走肉般至荃灣葵盛圍一間中學外,甫見學校保安員 突發狂襲擊,僅隔9分鐘再於附近緊咬另一名夜歸少女頸部,大批警員事後到場圍捕,終將迷幻青年制服拘捕,3人先後送院檢查及敷治。




 案發第一現場在葵盛圍一間中學門外,前晚深夜11時40分,學校60歲吳姓保安員察覺一名青年不住 徘徊,形跡可疑,遂上前查問,詎料對方突然狂性大發將他毆打,傷人後逃去無蹤。警方接報派員到場調查,未料相隔僅約9分鐘,再有市民報警指行經葵盛西鸷 時,目睹一名青年當街與一名少女激烈糾纏,懷疑發生非禮案。 

 警員趕抵葵盛西鸷,截停案中青年男女調查,結果揭發20歲女事主並非遭到非禮,而是被該名不相識 的青年莫名其妙地「飛擒大咬」,如「喪屍」般一度緊咬其頸部不放,以致頸部留下深深牙齒印。此外警員證實該名青年亦與葵盛圍的傷人案件有關。事後須安排救 護車將涉案青年及2名傷者送院檢查及敷治。 


2012年11月25日 星期日


終於昨天得閒出咗去九龍同SCS 和 SPC 取早排訂咗的銀幣 !

在 SPC 買咗紫蛇, 好靚, 而個膠盒的尺吋是好大, 因為取似幣的高度, 所以唔可以整爛, 唔係好難配返 ! 呢隻幣是無外盒送的, 但有証書跟隨, 不過以波蘭鑄幣廠銀幣來說, 560蚊是不貴啦 (不夠一盎司925銀幣來說, 一過 600蚊就是貴) !

Purple Love Snake (愛情蛇)
Issuer: Niue Island
Face Value: 1 NZ Dollar
Metal Ag 925
Weight 28.28g
Dimensions: 35.1mm x 45.1mm
Oval shape
Edge: Milled
Quality: Proof with pad printing, protection against oxidizing
Year of issue: 2013
Mintage: 7000

另一枚是澳洲 Perth Mint 1/2 盎司精製蛇年999銀幣, 在 SCS 買, 有外盒和証書跟隨, 440蚊, 平過自己上網買, 所以SCS好快賣完 !


Australian Lunar Series II 2013 Year of the Snake 1/2oz Silver Proof Coloured Edition

  • 9.9% Pure Silver 1/2oz and 1oz Coins
  • Magnificent Year of the Snake Tributes
  • Australian Legal Tender
  • Limited Mintages 10,000
  • Numbered Certificates of Authenticity
  • Presentation Packaging
Silver Content (Troy oz) 0.5
Monetary Denomination (AUD) 0.5
Fineness (% purity) 99.9
Minimum Gross Weight (g) 15.591
Maximum Diameter (mm) 36.60
Maximum Thickness (mm) 2.30

Rosen - This Move In Gold & Silver Is Going To Shock People

銀價行緊第三個上升浪 !


KWN has received tremendous interest in 54-year market veteran and analyst Ron Rosen’s charts and comments which were published exclusively on King World News.  We followed up with Rosen to get his take on where gold and silver are headed longer-term, and Rosen did not disappoint.  He gave an absolutely extraordinary interview.

“We are headed for over $3,000 if gold remains in the current logarithmic channel that it’s been in since the beginning of the bull market in gold.  However, there is a good probability that when gold bottomed at $68, a new, higher rising channel began.

If that is true, and I think it is, we should approximate $4,500 sometime in early 2014 (see chart below which shows secondary targets between $3,700 and $4,500 for this leg in gold).  Alf Fields is very well known, and he had a target of $4,500 for gold as major wave 3.  I think that can be reached sometime in early 2014 if we have formed a second channel (in gold).

The way things are looking, based on today’s (Friday’s) action and year-end action, I think we are headed for that number....  

“I (also) think, like I wrote the other day (on KWN) that silver is headed for $100 at a minimum.  The reality is this is ... a 3rd of a 3rd (wave), and this should be a really big move.  It’s all there, it’s built-in, and frankly, if you want my unfettered opinion, this whole thing started in 1913 when the Federal Reserve was formed.

Everything we see in our charts long-term, including the Dow, begins in 1913.  The Dow is in the process of completing a major wave 4 which will take it down into the low 6,000s, possibly below 6,000.  That’s when gold and the Dow will once again cross and they will be (at a) 1/1 (ratio), just like they were back in 1980.  Gold hit $850 and the Dow was well below 850 (in 1980).

So anybody who is hesitating now is making a really big mistake.  This is not something that happened overnight.  It’s not a result of Franklin Delano Roosevelt.  It’s something that dates back to the creation of the Federal Reserve system. 

I have my long-term charts that in my mind are irrefutable.  It’s based on the based on the rule of alternation, like all human beings and all people on this earth, we keep repeating the same thing over and over again.”

Eric King:  “Ron, I know you’ve been doing this for over half a century, and I wanted to ask you, this move that’s in front of us that you are describing, the violence of that, if people don’t position themselves ahead of that, pick up the physical gold and physical silver they want, how hard is it for them to get in as a move like that begins?”

Rosen:  “You mean emotionally?  Psychologically?”

Eric King:  “Yeah, sure.”

Rosen: “It’s very difficult, it’s very difficult.  They want to buy it at yesterday’s price.  I mean that’s the natural instinct.  If panic sets in, they’ll buy.  Those people that are short, they’ll cover. 

3rd waves are massive waves.  People that don’t know what they are doing, they are going to be on the sidelines and they won’t buy.  Those that have been in the business, people like me that have been around a long time, a bunch of old folks, they’ve learned their lessons.

I’ve learned to look to the long-term, to the past, look for what has happened before and see where all of this business started, and it started in 1913.  The people that have not jumped on board, I don’t know what they can do.  I don’t know how they can convince themselves, other than to study hard and fast and look to the past.”

2012年11月24日 星期六



【本報訊】香港居民申請或換領回鄉卡,下月10日起手續將比現時繁複。中旅社透露,回鄉卡申請人除了要提供一張彩色近照,另要自備一張儲存於光碟內的數碼 相片,再親自到中旅社證件中心辦證;相片規格更嚴謹,包括頭髮不能遮擋眉毛、雙耳及眼睛,也不能佩戴粗框眼鏡及避免濃妝。中旅社解釋是配合內地出入境管理 局的指引。

中旅社目前在香港有七個辦證中心,為香港居民辦理新領、換領、補領回鄉卡。按現行規定,申請人需提交一張近半年內拍攝的正面彩色近照,相片背景為純白色, 大小則為40毫米(闊)x50毫米(高),或不超過45毫米(闊)x55毫米(高)。但為配合內地公安部出入境管理局已實施的「出入境證件相片照相指 引」,下月10日起,回鄉卡申請人須遵守最新的相片規格。


中旅集團證件業務部高級經理黎錫明稱,回鄉卡申請人的相片除了要清楚顯示面容特徵,尺寸將改為33毫米(闊)x48毫米(高),背景仍是白色,並需張貼在 申請表上。另申請人需額外準備一張數碼相片,並燒錄到光碟中一併提交。但他提醒申請人自攜辦理的數碼相片圖像格式應為JPEG檔案,一張光碟只能放一張數 碼相片,也要以英文字母或數目字命名。到證件中心辦證時,須把光碟交予職員,透過中心內的數碼檢測平台檢視相片是否符合規格,合格就會即時上傳並打印合格 證,再憑合格證辦理手續。
黎 錫明指,基於安全及保安考慮,申請人不可以利用USB手指裝置提交數碼相片,「USB手指可能有電腦病毒,或者有惡意程序盜取到機密資料」。為了方便市民 辦證,中旅社已與一間大型快相供應商合作,在各證件中心增設兩至三部的快相設施,「每次收費40元,快相供應商會提供四張相片,仲會幫你處理數碼相,影完 相後會即時傳去檢測中心,唔合格嘅相可以重新拍攝,唔會額外收費」。







2012年11月23日 星期五

分散投資 巴西頻掃黃金




除巴西外,新興市場俄羅斯、土耳其、中歐國家哈薩克等亦增持黃金。分析指,全球央行今年共買入約500噸黃金,為40年以來最多。其中拉丁美洲的央行今年 開始加入亞洲及中東國家增持黃金行列。不過,歐洲方面,德國上月則減持黃金4.2噸,至僅3391.5噸。
雖 然黃金主要市場中國及印度的需求減弱,但央行增持黃金,加上中東局勢緊張,均支持金價表現。現貨金價格去年創下每盎斯1921.15美元的歷史高位後,今 年繼續高位徘徊;而金價昨延續周三升勢,最高曾見每盎斯1732.65美元,升0.23%。美林財富管理預期,金價明年將升至2000美元水平。

2012年11月22日 星期四

Hunt brothers sacrificed to save the US dollar says Mike Maloney


NOVEMBER 21, 2012

Mike Maloney, founder of GoldSilver.com and author of the Guide to Investing in Gold and Silver talks to GoldMoney's Alasdair Macleod. They discuss why gold is not in a bubble and talk about the potential for the silver price and how the end of the precious metals bull market in 1980 came about.

Maloney states that there will be a great financial crisis within this decade with the fear of subsequent political upheaval. Looking at the acceleration in the money supply both men agree that gold remains undervalued and under-owned. They talk about possible issues with gold ETFs and point out the need to own actual physical bullion instead of paper claims on gold in order to avoid counterparty risk. Maloney emphasises that compared to the bull market in the 1980s, the current bull market in gold is taking place on a global stage with much higher participation and therefore price potential.

Maloney is very bullish on silver and expects the gold to silver ratio to narrow towards 12:1 as the market will try to rebalance the value of those two currencies according to their rarity. At some point gold will get too expensive for the common man making silver the more affordable option. They also discuss how much impact the Hunt brothers actually had on the price of silver in 1980 and how the bull market ended.

名城賣車位 重燃炒籌潮 首200號籌 每個索價30萬


【本報訊】政府實施新稅打擊住宅樓市,資金極速流竄至非住宅市場,實行「你有你打、我有我炒」。長實(001)本周六推售大圍名城500個車位,由於多達 2000多個業主申請,超額認購達三倍,即時重燃樓市熱爆的炒籌熱潮,惟籌號不是揀單位,而是揀車位。有抽籤次序在首200號內的業主索價20至30萬元 放籌,惟截至昨晚9時止,未聞成功售出。記者:湯家明朱連峰

本港近10年罕見的炒籌現象,在政府上月底出「雙辣招」後再現。政府向公司客及境外人士徵樓價15%買家印花稅(BSD),趕絕外來資金入侵樓市,圖壓低 樓價。惟過去三個多星期,樓市成交陷冰封,樓價卻沒有顯著下滑;相反,熱錢湧入,全城瘋狂炒車位。


發展商見市道氣氛差而不賣樓,卻起勢掟車位。除華懋、新地(016)、信置(083)加入賣車位大軍外,長實更於上月向名城車主宣佈回收名城出租車位發 售,並於本月中發信通知名城業主出售車位事項,未賣先起哄。
名 城全數3期住宅,共4264戶,惟車位總數只有808個,業主要車位勢「爭崩頭」。據知,是次賣500個車位(其餘暫為保留出租用途),共接獲2000多 個業主申請,部份抽籤次序1000號以後業主,已心急如焚,願意還價10萬元買前籌買車位。業界指,市場不乏放籌業主,主要是持有抽籤次序首200號內的 人士,每個籌號索價20萬至30萬不等,但未聞成功售出。
有消息指,放售籌號人士中,不乏內地業主;亦有代理指,是次發展商不安排轉名手續,籌價 只能作Sub-sale(二手轉讓)利潤(由一手業主簽名後轉讓予下一手)。受近期熱炒車位刺激,同區居屋雲叠花園車位已炒至80萬,華懋賣金獅花園車 位,已加價至55萬元。


雖然長實指車位售價介乎98至130萬元,但據知,業主至今只收到發展商給他們的停車場平面圖,顯示車位位置,卻無明碼實價。有業主發難指「車位冇價單, 到時你(指發展商)500個(車位)全部賣130萬都得」,質疑長實賣車位造勢,會視乎周六反應才決定,有推高售價之嫌。由於鐵路上蓋物業,向來車位比例 少,如火炭御龍山,平均每六戶住宅對一個車位,造就車位有價。
消 息稱,沙田蔚景園地下一個雙號車位,上月30日由一名投資者以36萬元購入,本月17日再以50萬元賣出,18日炒貴14萬元或39%。扣除佣金等開支, 料淨袋12萬元。同區希爾頓中心一個在2000年7月以24.5萬元賣出的單號車位,亦剛以54萬元轉手。信置昨推出土瓜灣帝庭豪園40個車位,售價67 萬至77萬元。




炒籌過後 樓市見頂




中 小住宅盤籌價一般要數萬至十數萬元不等,視乎揀樓位置而定;一些受歡迎的樓盤,籌價更達30至50萬元。豪宅盤靚籌號的價錢,更是數十萬元起,首20揀樓 籌號,隨時過百萬元。如97年初賣的尖沙嘴嘉文花園,2號籌的價值便達200萬元,相當於是當時一般中環白領的10年人工。

2012年11月21日 星期三

Selling Gold? I Know Better.

笑死 !


"I keep in my toilet a picture of Mr. Bernanke. And every time I think about selling my gold, I look at it and I know better!"

大炒家掃貨 金價看漲一成


據 彭博資料指,分析員估計黃金價格明年每季都會上升,料明年第四季金價平均為每盎斯1925美元,或較現價高10%。美國證券及交易委員會(SEC)文件顯 示,保爾森旗下的Paulson& Co.透過SPDR黃金信託押注36.7億美元黃金;索羅斯今年第三季亦增加黃金持倉49%。


現 貨金年初至今彈升11%,10月初曾高見每盎斯1790.4美元。金價在去年9月創歷史高位,報每盎斯1921.15美元。由於市場有信心美國國會可及時 化解財政懸崖問題,刺激金價造好,昨日最多曾升4美元至每盎斯1735.71美元,為近兩個月高位。其他商品價格方面,現貨銀創一個月高位,每盎斯 33.255美元後,稍為回落至每盎斯33.1512美元。


另一邊廂,中東局勢不穩及預測美國原油庫存連續三星期上升,拖累國際油價從一個月高位回落。紐約期油從每桶89.28美元的一個月收市高位下跌,昨曾挫 0.84%至每桶88.53美元。倫敦布蘭特期油則下跌0.85%,低見每桶110.75美元。截至11月9日,美國能源部指原油庫存達3.76億桶,創 四個月最高;原油生產增至671萬桶,亦創94年5月來最多。



國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)上周三在「官方外匯儲備貨幣組合」(Cofer)報告中指出,部分央行將澳元及加 元納入儲備貨幣的趨勢日增,IMF正考慮把此兩幣納入官方外儲貨幣組合,若落實,將是歐元自1999年推出後,IMF首次指定新的儲備貨幣,兩幣屆時料將 更受國際投資者追捧,亦反映加、澳兩個主要商品出口國在全球經濟扮演愈來愈重要角色。

 Cofer報告檢視各地央行貨幣儲備情況,美元、歐元、英鎊、日圓及瑞士法郎5種被視為全球最安 全貨幣,構成各國儲備貨幣,IMF過往亦只把加元及澳元歸類為「其他貨幣」。不過近期調查發現,部分受訪央行持有的其他10種貨幣,只有澳元及加元獲超過 兩家央行持有,顯示2008年金融海嘯爆發後,兩幣較其他發展國貨幣更穩定。 


 分析指出,雖然支持加元的商品價格過去數周回軟,但俄羅斯、瑞士、亞洲及拉丁美洲等國的央行持續增 持加元,是其今年走勢轉強的部分成因。此外,加澳兩國在「後金融海嘯時期」經濟表現較部分主要經濟體更穩定,今年赤字料將減少至佔國內生產總值(GDP) 不足5%,亦是貨幣穩定因素之一。 

 事實上,澳元和加元這兩種收益較高的商品貨幣吸引強勁需求,對市場人士而言已不奇怪。TD Securities駐多倫多副總裁兼外匯現匯交易主管凱利特稱,IMF的行動相當落後。




2012年11月20日 星期二



近期流行談所謂的「財政懸崖」,其實就是政府增加稅收和減開支。換句話說,「財政懸崖」就等於美國政府叫「歐豬五國」做的「財政緊 縮」(Austerity)政策。和「歐豬五國」一樣,美國政府同樣面對入不敷支的問題,為了長遠的政府財政健康,肯定要作出調整。


筆者認為長遠的財政健康和短期的經濟增長,要取得一個平衡。筆者不贊成在經濟不穩的時候進行緊縮,相反,應該有「逆周期」(Counter- cyclical)政策。所以,筆者反對歐洲現在過份緊縮。但問題是,美國是另一個極端。美國現在所建議的緊縮方案,其實離解決自身財政問題遠得很,分量 還遠遠不夠。

QE1推行後不久,伯南克已經開始談退市(Exit)的問題。他當時表明,極度寬鬆的貨幣政策不是一個常態,不可能永遠持續。可能受到他的影響,自 2009年底,已經有不少專家出來,呼籲大家小心聯儲局會退市,並且預測美國會快加息。

由2009年底,預測2010年,到2011年,到現在,一直沒有實現。相反,筆者由金融海嘯到現在,一直認為聯儲局沒有加息的條件。伯南克所說的,很多 時候只是「出口術」,因為要QE成功,伯南克必須使市場相信他是有一套深思熟慮的章法,而不會引發惡性通脹或其他亂子。於是,市場越不預期他會延長量化寬 鬆,他便越延長其時效。


美國並非日本,這是好消息,也是壞消息。好的是,美國經濟仍然具有競爭力,而且企業負債水平健康,人口結構相對年輕;壞的是,當美國經濟再次重拾可持續性 的增長,樓市見底,金融信貸系統收縮的情況緩和,美國便開始有條件加息。
當然,歐債問題,對美國會有負面影響;整體而言,美國是否真的要拖到2015、2016年才加息,沒有人知道。不過,筆者相信,美國利率的Mean Reversion,對全球資產市場衝擊不少。



2012年11月19日 星期一



是 的,退休保障跟扶貧政策的確是兩碼子的事,不能混為一談,特區政府意圖用長者生活津貼或特殊生果金來處理長者退休後生活費用緊絀的問題一方面混淆了政策的 目標,另一方面則兩頭不討好,既扶不了貧也不能算是正式退休保障安排,難怪立法會內不少議員到現在仍不肯收貨,仍然在以拉布方式拖延撥款,希望進一步跟政 府討價還價,逼政府讓步。
長者生活津貼之戰甚麼時候完結,現在還不能確定,但更長遠、更重要的爭議仍然在全民退休保障這個老大難的問題上,不管是 政府、政黨或民間團體都不應該倉卒下定論,下結論,更不要輕率定出甚麼時間表或路線圖,以免走錯路而令香港付出沉重的社會、經濟代價,而令下一代以至再下 一代要背負難以承受的重擔。
先說一點歷史及現實。香港不是第一次大規模討論退休保障問題,香港也不是沒有退休保障制度。最近一次大規模諮詢及討論 是在九十年代中前港督彭定康任內,當時負責諮詢及撤銷政策的官員是林煥光先生,即是現屆政府的行政會議召集人,那個時候港英政府屬意的方案叫「老年退休金 計劃」(Old Age Pension Scheme),基本原則是跨代供養,即上班一族每月強制供款,退休一族則每月領取退休金,到上班族退休時,下一代則接棒繼續供款。但由於種種原因社會長 遠負擔能力,個人供款金額跟個人退休金脫節,北京懷疑港英搞福利主義等多種原因,立法機關最終否決了這個類似歐美發達國家的退休保障制度,決定引入「錢跟 供款人走」的強制性私人公積金制度。換言之,現時成為眾矢之的的「強積金」或「強逼金」並不是上天掉下來的制度,而是當年經過長時間諮詢、妥協的結果,而 是議會民意代表做的決定。
要再次研究全民退休保障制度的話,各方面先要處理、解決已運作超過十二年的強積金計劃,例如把它解散讓供款人即時提取供 款再注入新的退休計劃,又或是把強積金供款融入新的全民退保計劃中;甚或保留強積金成為另一套退休計劃讓市民選擇。這幾個選擇不但涉及複雜的計算,不但涉 及大量個人、企業、僱員、僱主、納稅人的利益,更將直接影響數以十萬計在未來十至十五年踏入退休年齡的上班族的利益。如何擺平、能否擺平各種不同利益及矛 盾實在誰也沒把握,要在短期內定出具體時間表及路線圖更只能是一廂情願的想法。
另一個關鍵問題是個人及社會的負擔能力。不管是甚麼退休制度都必須 回答一個基本問題,那就是錢從何來。基本上錢的來源離不開幾方面:上班族供款負擔自己的退休金,上班族供養退休族再指望下一代上班族供養自己,政府以一般 或特殊稅收支付公民的退休金。現時香港的強積金是由上班族自己供款應付退休開支;一旦引入全民退休保障制度,它必然涉及額外的供款及稅收,必然需要引入下 一代為退休族供款的安排。只可惜,香港人口已踏進快速老化階段,退休長者的數目將快速增加,而年輕上班族的數目則持續下降。換言之,下一代的供款擔子只會 越來越重,政府的相關開支只會不斷飆升。若果不認真考慮下一代及整體社會的負擔能力就謬然引入新一套退休保障制度,最終不但會引發世代矛盾,更會令社會難 以負荷,像「歐豬」國家那樣「爆煲」收場。


2012年11月18日 星期日


好多人以為不買衍生工具, 不買炒股, 就不賭 !
其實你在投資上走的每一步都是在賭命運 !

八年過去, 今日得閒在網上走一走; 財經網誌中有40%唔再寫, 而有幾個轉買物業算有進展, 但有賣掉物業來炒股的一定不會好過 !
轉買實金銀的有幾個, 但大多數人唔肯認輸, 認為股市會有翻身的一日 !

我希望金融崩潰唔會是真, 雖然網上好多警告, 但如果發生, 大多數人的財富會一夜之間消失 !

大多數人唔信或睇唔到我地頭頂上有危機, 就連我老公都一樣, 因為我每一次買金銀都俾佢鬧, 說想用曬佢的錢 ! 而我只是想救下自己的將來 !

我幾年來在各網誌上留言, 叫人分散投資, 唔好全資買股票, 但得來的是俾人禁出回應 !

今日大家已可以見到, 我說的是事實 !

雖然樓市已翻一番, 但都唔好太高興, 因為沒知將來價格何去何從, 還千萬唔好無咁大的頭, 帶咁大的帽 !

將來會否美股跌落一萬, 而黃金升去一萬無人知, 所以大家的落注都是在賭命運 !

數千人避末日 湧法國「神秘山」

又來 ?

每個國家都有迷信的人 !


一個末日教派數以千計信徒相信今年12月21日是世界末日,屆時全球將毀滅,惟獨法國西南部比加哈什村(Bugarach)附近一座「神秘山」是避難所, 近日開始湧往當地,令這個200人小村出現人滿之患。這些信徒相信,比加哈什村有一座山暗藏UFO機庫,只要世界末日時在當地乘搭UFO,就可以離開毀滅 了的地球,去到「另一次元」地方。



2012年11月17日 星期六

Obama Begins Push to Confiscate IRA’s & 401k’s

好多人憎恨共產主義, 但資本主義的美國就愈變愈共產啦 !

如果香港政府收曬全部公積金和強積金來搞全民退休保章, 你會同意嗎 ?


It may be time to take the tax hit and withdraw funds from private retirement accounts before they are forced into long term T-bonds.

The Obama administration is reportedly quickly moving on plans to nationalize private 401k and IRA retirement accounts, and replace them with government sponsored annuities(aka Treasury bonds that the Treasury currently can’t sell to anyone but the Fed).

National Seniors Council Director Robert Crone warns: “This whole issue is moving forward very quickly.  Already there is a bill requiring all businesses to automatically enroll their employees in IRA plans in which part of every employee’s paycheck would be automatically deducted and deposited into this account. If this passes, the government will be just one step away from being able to confiscate all these retirement accounts.

All your retirement savings are belong to us:
A recent hearing sponsored by the Treasury and Labor Departments marked the beginning of the Obama Administration’s effort to nationalize the nation’s pension system and to eliminate private retirement accounts including IRA’s and 401k plans, NSC is warning.
The hearing, held in the Labor Department’s main auditorium, was monitored by NSC staff and featured a line up of left-wing activists including one representative of the AFL-CIO who advocated for more government regulation over private retirement accounts and even the establishment of government-sponsored annuities that would take the place of 401k plans.
“This hearing was set up to explore why Americans are not saving as much for their retirement as they could,” explains National Seniors Council National Director Robert Crone, “However, it is clear that this is the first step towards a government takeover. It feels just like the beginning of the debate over health care and we all know how that ended up.”
A representative of the liberal Pension Rights Center, Rebecca Davis, testified that the government needs to get involved because 401k plans and IRAs are unfair to poor people. She demanded the Obama administration set up a “government-sponsored program administered by the PBGC (the governments’ Pension Benefit Guarantee Corporation).” She proclaimed that even “private annuities are problematic.”
Such “reforms” would effectively end private retirement accounts in America, Crone warns. “These people want the government to require that ultimately all Americans buy these government annuities instead of saving or investing on their own. The Government could then take these trillions of dollars and redistribute it through this new national retirement system.”
Deputy Treasury Secretary J. Mark Iwry, who presided over the hearing, is a long-time critic of 401k plans because he believes they benefit the rich. He also appears to be one of the Administration’s point man on this issue.
“This whole issue is moving forward very quickly,” warns Crone. “Already there is a bill requiring all businesses to automatically enroll their employees in IRA plans in which part of every employee’s paycheck would be automatically deducted and deposited into this account. If this passes, the government will be just one step away from being able to confiscate all these retirement accounts.”
Read more:
Please realize that this is 100% about funding $1.5 TRILLION annual deficits using Americans’ retirement funds, as there is simply no other remaining pool of wealth able to soak up $1.5 Trillion in T-bills annually.
If the US government was put in charge of the Sahara Desert, there would not be a grain of sand remaining in 6 months.

2012年11月16日 星期五

2013 would be a very difficult year

面對目前危機, 不要過度借貸和少持紙資產 !


With continued volatility in global markets, today Egon von Greyerz spoke with King World News about the precarious state of the financial world and key markets, including gold and silver.  Here is what Greyerz had this to say:  “I was talking to you last week about how Japan was a disaster waiting to happen.  I was pleased to see John Embry agreeing with me on Japan because John is one of the wisest men I know.  So Japan is in a mess, but you don’t have to go far to look at another problem which is China.”

Egon von Greyerz continues:  

“China has been dealing with over-investment and easy credit for years, and it’s a bubble.  There is a bubble in the economy in China, there’s a credit bubble, there’s a property bubble.  China is the only economy in the world that is totally built on credit.

Most emerging economies are built on investment out of profit....

“This is not the case with China.  Therefore, they have a massive economy based on credit.  This makes China’s situation even more dangerous and more vulnerable.

If we look around the rest of the world, Europe is in recession.  We have already seen two negative quarters of growth in Europe.  Within that, Germany and France are still showing positive growth, but both Germany and France are declining now.

Then we have the problems all over Europe with the strikes and riots.  We are seeing strikes and riots in Spain, Italy, Portugal, Greece, France, and even Belgium.  This will just be the beginning.  Sadly, conditions will just continue to deteriorate.

Moving to the Middle-East, it’s a time bomb.  Israel is preparing to move troops into Gaza because rockets are being fired into Israel.  So the Middle-East is a powder keg waiting to explode, and we may be seeing the beginning of that explosion right now.  The hungry people, combined with the economic conditions, and the political conditions, will lead to many more revolts, smaller wars, and possibly bigger wars in the Middle-East.

Conditions are also deteriorating in the United States.  We just had the Philly Fed Index out today, which was -10.7 vs +5 last month.  We also just had another survey released which predicts general business conditions six months forward to be the worst since the collapse back in 2009.

Manufacturing is also predicted to be the worst since 2009.  That means factories are less likely to hire, and more likely to fire people over the next six months.  This will increase unemployment in the US going forward.  Initial Jobless Claims also spiked to 439,000 today in the US.  Retail sales are also falling. So the US is deteriorating like everybody else.

I stated last week that 2013 would be a very difficult year.  The statistics I am discussing with you today are just signals of things to come.  I think 2013 will be an annus horribilis, and people can expect to see major change.  I am not a pessimist by nature, but I am a realist, and right now investors need to be warned about what is coming. 

It is important to warn investors about the risks and to help protect against these risks.  The risks going forward are greater than ever.  Where we are at this moment reminds me very much of what Brutus said in Shakespeare’s Julius Caesar:

‘There is a tide in the affairs of men, which taken at the flood leads on to fortune; omitted,
all the voyage of their life is bound in shallows and in miseries.  On such a full sea we
are now afloat; and we must take the current when it serves, or lose our ventures.’

I think that’s where we are now.  Investors who make the right choice have a chance to protect themselves.  Investors who make the wrong choice, they stand to lose everything.”

Greyerz also added: “It’s very interesting that silver is holding up better than gold.  Normally, if there is a move down in the metals, silver plunges the most.  To me, silver holding up, and this is a sign that we are very near the end of this correction.”

2012年11月15日 星期四

Silver Headed to 1-to-1 Ratio With Gold

銀同金一樣價 ? 發下夢先。。。。。

不過不是無可能, 因為在宋鴻兵本貨幣戰爭系中有說, 以前中國的銀比歐美的銀貴, 而黃金是在歐美貴過中國, 所以有商人去中國用銀買金帶去歐美又換回銀 ! 當時銀和金雖然沒去到同價, 不過銀價無依家咁平宜 !

剛搵返本貨幣戰爭3, 第十章 : 十七世紀初, 廣州的金銀價格比例為 1:5.50 至 1:7 , 而西班牙則是 1:12 至 1:14 

所以依家的 1:53 是抵到極 !


Chris Duane of Dont-Tread-On.me says Hurricane Sandy should be a wakeup call for the entire country. Duane says, “The impact of a dollar collapse will be hundreds, if not thousands, of times more disruptive to life than a two day storm.” Duane goes on to say, “Sandy is a great precursor to help you get your act in gear.” According to Duane, most people are just as unprepared for a dollar calamity as they were for the recent super storm in the Northeast. A much bigger financial storm is coming.

The big problem with all this is counter-party risk. You cannot trust anybody; you can’t even trust the currency.” Duane trusts physical silver, and he thinks its 53 to 1 silver to gold ratio per ounce makes silver attractive. Duane thinks he could make a good case for “. . . a one-to-one silver to gold ratio, especially with all the paper manipulation.” Duane says, “The system will collapse, it must collapse, and people will learn a very difficult lesson.” 

In the next move up, Duane see’s silver “pushing past $50 per ounce.”

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with Chris Duane.

Baby Snake 2013 1/2oz Silver Proof Coin

www.perthmint.com.au 買, AUS $ 61.36 (聖誕節優惠, 買超過 99澳元免運費), 現 SCS 還有平貨賣 HKD460 !

  • Proof Quality 99.9% Pure Silver
  • Year of the Snake Baby Keepsake
  • Adorable Design
  • Limited Mintage – 7,500
  • Tuvalu Legal Tender
  • Presentation Packaging

Silver Content (Troy oz) 0.50
Monetary Denomination (TVD) 0.50
Fineness (% purity) 99.9
Minimum Gross Weight (g) 15.591
Maximum Diameter (mm) 36.60
Maximum Thickness (mm) 2.30
Designer Ing Ing Jong

Perth Mint 龍年開始發行 BB Dragon 1/2oz Proof Silver Coin, 好受歡迎好快賣完, 但因為本人覺隻BB龍似玩具, 所以無買 ! 呢隻BB蛇得意好多, 所以買咗 !

金磚奇蹟恐玩完 全球臨低迷10年

 壞消息一籮籮, 投資須保守 !


美國研究機構經濟諮商會日前稱,「金磚五國」(中國、巴西、俄羅斯、印度及南非)憑低廉勞工及進口科技長足發 展,但這些優勢所剩不多,故其創造的繁榮奇蹟也可能告終,而全球經濟將面對長達10年的放緩。歐洲情況更悲觀,預料法國經濟到2025年將維持近零增長; 美國在2018年前則有2.5至3%的經濟增長。




2012年11月13日 星期二

Strange elite exodus: Planet X cometh, see how they run

班精英在趒跑 ?

可以走去邊 ?

照本人睇, 普通百姓留在家中最舒服, 當然要遠離海邊 !


Why so many simultaneous resignations? Is there something big is about to go down or rather “come down"?

Now that Planet X can be seen as a Second Sun in the sky with the naked eye, the abrupt exodus of the so-called elite is making news. Is the cover-up cracking now that major earth changes and second sun sightings are undeniably upon us all?

As earth changes continue to assault countries of the world, creating drought and deluge, intense storms, booming, shifting, and cracking land, the cover-up attempts continue. But the news of Planet X in the universe can no longer be suppressed, even though there is no main stream media coverage of the second sun sightings around the world.
What will the wealthy and powerful do as the last weeks before the pole shift arrive and earth changes wreak havoc on their comfortable lifestyles and the ability to control?

When wooden ships were in common use, there were always rats on board. If the rats knew that the ship was in trouble and sinking, they would jump off and swim away to safety. Unlike the captain and sailors trying to save the ship, the rats would just run away. And, so the phrase “like rats deserting a sinking ship” was born, referring to those who ditch what they see as a lost cause to save themselves.

Do the so-called elite believe that end times are near? Are they quietly leaving the scene on their Lear jets and literally and figuratively heading for the hills. Like rats deserting a sinking ship, are they slipping away in the dead of night to their secret and hopefully safe enclaves.

The word about Planet X spread among the wealthy long ago, giving them a head start to prepare for the pole shift. So, where were they going?

Well, they are leaving Florida, New York City, and coastline areas like Houston and other seaside locations to “head for the hills,” literally and figuratively – into the hills of Alberta, Canada or the Ozarks, into rock cavities built especially for them, and well stocked with supplies. They are avoiding places expected to be crowded, from overpopulated areas such as the East Coast of the US, Europe, and the Pacific Rim, as well as countries dominated by Islam to avoided culture clash and perhaps resultant hostility.

"Bunkering" into mountains has been a favorite theme since the days of Mt. Weather.

The so-called elite, once arrogantly assumed that bunkering into mountainsides would provide fail-safe protection. However, given the projected size of pole shift earthquakes (in the 9.0 magnitude range worldwide), mountain building and continental rifts tearing apart, underground facilities will hardly be a safe haven.

As major earth changes steadily increase, with a steady uptick in earthquakes and volcanic activity, a discernible earth wobble, and wild weather extremes and punishing storms, maintaining the cover-up is impossible. Planet X and earth changes are being openly discussed worldwide.

But, what about the rest of us who are not counted among the so-called "elite"? What of us? What are we to do? Should we just go on with their lives, residing in known danger zones? Should we remain living on coastlines or in cities to drown or die as cities flood and skyscrapers come crashing down?

Yes. This is what the so-called elite would have us do, at least until they are safely tucked away from masses and the coming chaos.

Such is the nature of the cover-up.

Embry: China To Import A Staggering 775 Tons of Gold In 2012

繼續儲實金實銀, 但本人就唔會買金礦股啦 !


Today John Embry spoke with King World News about the staggering pace of Chinese gold imports, Western central bank dishoarding of gold, the imploding global economy, which country will hyperinflate first, and mining shares.  Here is what Embry, who is chief investment strategist at Sprott Asset Management, had to say:  “I’m very encouraged by the continued flow of the world’s gold into China through Hong Kong.  The Chinese were essentially accumulating their gold by purchasing all of their domestic production, and now they are the largest domestic producer in the world.”

John Embry continues:

“But now they are buying the world’s gold at an ever-increasing rate.  At this point, based on the imports through the first nine months of the year, if you pro-rated for the last three months, they would for the full year have imported a staggering 775 tons of gold.

Well, if you take that as a percentage of the non-Chinese production, that’s about 1/3 of the non-Chinese mine production that’s going into China.  This wasn’t happening two years ago.  So my question is, where is the gold coming from?....

“After Chinese imports are subtracted from yearly production totals, that only leaves about 1,500 to 1,700 tons of gold for the rest of the world, and there is way more demand than that in the rest of the world.  So I continue to believe there is Western government dishoarding of gold, but that has a finite life span because I think the physical shortages are intensifying.”

Embry also added: “I continue to look at the shocking condition of the world and the deceleration of the global economy.  The Japanese quarterly number which was released this morning was awful.  I was intrigued by the comments of Egon von Greyerz on Friday about how dreadful the Japanese situation is. 

I believe that the situation in Japan is reaching a very critical stage and I was delighted to see a guy as smart as Egon bringing this to light because I believe that implicitly and I was glad to see him going down the same path.  Japan is now trapped into printing money because they have a debt-to-GDP ratio that is so far out of line with the rest of the world that it’s almost unfathomable. 

When you put that into context with an aging population which owns all of these bonds, but they are not in a position to continue buying them, they have no alternative other than to keep printing.

The Indian industrial production, which was supposed to be positive like much of the rest of the world, has lapsed into negativity.  Chinese lending was not as robust in the most recent month, and these numbers were coming from what was supposed to be the good parts of the world.

There isn’t much that is positive which can be said about Europe.  I mean Europe is in dreadful shape.  The area that is deteriorating the most but the focus hasn’t hit it yet is France.  I think this guy Hollande is a disaster.  He’s taxing the rich to excess and the economy is buckling.

We all know the problems in Italy and Spain, Greece, etc., but I think the one people should be paying more attention to is France because it’s the second biggest economy in Europe and it’s in dreadful shape.

The US is in terrible shape as well.  Then you have the fiscal cliff issue in the US, and these guys can’t kick the can any longer.  They have to deal with it.  I don’t think the US economy is strong enough to remove the tax cuts, and put in place the mandated spending cuts. 

Given the vulnerability of the US economy, that could be devastating.  So I’m of the mind that the US will up the debt limit and pay lip service to the issues, but nothing of significance will be done.

It is going to be a race to see which country hyperinflates first, but I think the world in general is headed in that direction.  Who gets to the finish line first, I’m not sure, but I think the Japanese have the recipe to be at the front of the race.”

Embry had this to say regarding the mining shares:  “I was just chatting with a very disaffected mining share holder who has been getting killed in these things, and he just can’t believe how badly they have performed as a group.

I think there has been interference in that market as well, for the express purpose of keeping the public away.  At the same time, the hedge funds have seen easy money so they have been working the short side of the market.  You have had a perfect negative storm for the mining shares.

So the shares remain amazingly cheap, even though there is some interest in the larger vehicles.  But the juniors, by and large, continue to languish.  I believe I will be proven correct on the gold bullion price.  When gold moves up sharply in the next 12 months, that will finally unleash the gold shares. 

The shares are way behind the bullion and they will play catch up.  Traditionally, in a gold bull market, the share prices move at three times the speed of the gold price rise.  This time they are starting from a much lower level, so I’m very optimistic these things are going to be terrific investments, and nobody owns them anymore.”

2012年11月12日 星期一



Brother JohnF 叫大家一定要去睇電影 [Looper 迴路殺手], 因為有說在未來世界, 實銀、實金和人民幣是交易貨幣 ! 還有在未來世界中, 美國是大窮國, 而中國是繁榮國家 ! 

呢部戲是為中國十三億人口而拍的 !

依家全世界都想去中國掘金, 只有好奇怪的少數人不認自己是中國人 ! 

呢樣叫身在福中不知福 !






【本報訊】雖然美國總統大選塵埃落定,但代表民主黨的奧巴馬連任,同時意味着美國政府遇上財政懸崖(fiscal cliff)。財政司司長曾俊華在其網誌表示,香港作為外向型經濟體,倘貿易夥伴墮崖,香港將不能獨善其身,經濟隨時被拖入衰退漩渦。
倘 美國經濟增長放緩,加上失業率向上,曾俊華認為,勢會拖累歐洲經濟復蘇步伐,內地硬着陸的機會亦隨之增加,當歐美和內地經濟均吹逆風時,本港經濟亦會受打 擊。曾俊華預期,本港經濟很可能會衰退,資產價格或出現波動,企業破產增加,失業率上升,巿民生活會大受影響。事實上,港大早前公佈的研究預計,明年本港 經濟會有兩至三成機會陷入衰退,更有另一經濟師認為香港已步入衰退。


對於美國會否因未能達成共識而要墮崖,曾俊華表示,觀乎美國大選戰情,兩黨領袖奧巴馬和羅姆尼得票不相伯仲,故他認為市場要尋求共識並不容易,預期兩黨會 於年底先達成暫時協議,以爭取更多時間談判,將美國經濟墮崖風險延至明年第一季或第二季。

2012年11月11日 星期日



香港文匯報訊(記者 梁悅琴)奧巴馬連任美國總統,財政懸崖問題促使市場人士擔憂美國經濟增長可能面臨新的阻力,加上印度和中國對黃金的強勁需求帶動,黃金期貨上周五走 高,12月黃金期價收於每盎司1,730.86美元,比前一交易日上升0.28%,上周累計上漲3.3%,為自1月20日以來最大單周漲幅。分析認為,市 場對貨幣信任度減低,黃金價格於明年第二季有望上升至每盎司1,900至2,000美元。

 投資者押注美國總統奧巴馬成功連任後將沿用當前政策,財政懸崖問題也促使市場人士擔憂美國經濟增 長可能面臨新的阻力,加上歐元區經濟前景的擔憂也提升了金價。此外,近一個月來金價的跌勢引發了對實物黃金的逢低買盤,尤其是在亞洲,印度今日起為期5天 的排燈節假日,導致印度對黃金需求強勁增長。 





 奧巴馬連任美國總統後,民主黨與共和黨就財政懸崖問題於未來一個月的爭拗亦引起關注,若爭拗克制, 年底前金價料於每盎司1,800美元左右徘徊,明年第一季美國財政問題解決後,資金會再度流向商品及股票市場,到明年第二季金價應有望上升至每盎司 1,900美元至2,000美元水平。

The Dumb Money Hates Silver


Peter Krauth

Speculators hate silver… For the past year, the positive silver headlines have been few and far between.Ever since the poor man’s gold peaked near $50 in April of last year, it’s become a despised metal.
Admittedly, it’s been languishing near $27 since early May not far from where it was for the first time – in this bull market – back in late 2010.

But as I’ll show you, right now a number of technical, seasonal, and sentiment indicators are pointing upwards for this volatile metal. 

This could well be the critical turning point silver investors have been waiting for. One of these indicators is the resilient price of gold.
Let me explain.

The Silver/Gold Ratio

Silver has always pretty much been gold’s lapdog and on a relatively short leash at that.
As a rule, silver prices usually follow the direction of gold. But as long time silver investors recognize, the moves are amplified both on the downside and the upside. Silver prices are simply more volatile than gold prices.

As for gold, since it peaked about a year ago, it seems to be drifting aimlessly in zombie land. For the better part of the year it’s been consolidating about 16% below its previous peak of $1,900.

Today, at $1,600, gold is back to levels its first saw a whole year ago. What investors need to pay attention to is the gold to silver ratio.

Before the financial crisis, the gold/silver ratio was around 50 and trending downward. That meant at the time an ounce of gold would buy you 50 ounces of silver.

Then in late April last year silver exploded higher. As the silver price rose an ounce of gold bought a smaller equivalent amount of silver, pushing the ratio down below 30.
That was short-lived, as silver’s dramatic rise was unsustainable. I had said so at the time.

Today, the ratio recently returned to a high level near 60 which is also unsustainable in its own right on the other side of the trade. It’s why silver’s looking rather undervalued relative to gold right now.

My long term target for gold still remains $5,000. As this bull progresses, I think we’ll see the gold/silver ratio move down closer to 20 which would imply that silver eventually reaches $250.

Gold also normally starts its best seasonal period now, as the summer doldrums come to a close. Since its secular bull launched back in 2001, gold has averaged 19% gains between the end of July and the end of May.

If silver follows and tacks on some leverage as well, we could enjoy substantially higher silver prices by next spring.

But thanks to wildly bullish fundamentals, silver could retest its 2011 peak, or better it, by then.

As you know, it’s no secret that Europe is mired in ongoing bank and sovereign bailouts, the U.S. presidential election will bring further uncertainty, and China could be set for a marked slowdown unless it makes its move on stimulus.

I expect lots more money printing as a result, whose inflationary effect is always kind to silver and gold.

Technical Signs Point to a Silver Bottom

On a pure technical price basis, silver is looking quite bullish as well.

Silver appears to have bottomed recently in the $26-$27 range. It’s not the first time this price level has been relevant either.

Back in late 2010, $26-$27 acted as resistance where silver’s price had stalled. Late in 2011, and again in the last couple of months, silver has retested those prices, but this time it’s provided support, forming a “silver staircase” similar to the “golden staircase” I’ve written about before.

It now looks like we could be near a new low. Since late June, silver’s been establishing a series of higher lows, providing additional support for a bottom.

Three More Reasons Silver is Headed Higher

But those aren’t the only reasons to be bullish on silver these days-or gold for that matter. Here are three other reasons why the outlook for silver is higher from here:
  • Precious Metals Rise As Markets Fall
Stocks have been in a strong cyclical bull market since bottoming in March 2009. The S&P 500 has gained nearly 105% over the past 41 months. But it’s getting long in the tooth, as the average cyclical bull during secular bears tends to last about 35 months.
Yet precious metals have a tremendous ability to rally during cyclical bears. While the S&P 500 lost 57% from October 2007 to March 2009, gold staged a respectable move higher of 25%.

Whenever the cyclical bear comes out of hibernation, I expect gold and silver to benefit from their established safe-haven status.
  • Contrarian Signals in the Futures Market
Silver contracts are traded on futures exchanges. A useful barometer of who’s long and who’s short silver can be garnered from the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) reports prepared by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

Recent COT reports show that the big speculators (dumb money) are exceptionally bearish on silver right now, at levels reached only four times since this silver bull began in 2002.
Each time that’s happened since, silver has embarked on an impressive rally, climbing at least 70% and even clocking up to several hundred percent gains.

Dumb money, especially at extremes, usually makes for a great contrarian indicator.
  • The Ongoing Move Towards Physical Metals
Worldwide, investors are gravitating toward physical bullion, having tripled their purchases since 2007. Clearly, people are becoming apprehensive of the state of the world’s finances, economies, and governments.

ETFs backed by physical bullion have been losing considerable ground to holding the real thing in hand. 

Since 2009, gold ETFs have seen annual net additions decline 73%, while silver ETFs saw an outflow of 26 million ounces in 2011, and slowing annual net additions since 2009.
When people go out of their way to get the real thing, they don’t readily turn around and trade it, even if the metal starts to make new highs. For all practical purposes, bullion purchased by individuals who take physical possession comes “off the market”. And that too is bullish for silver prices.

So as we enter the strongest seasonal period of the year for precious metals, political and economic factors could help drive explosive demand for silver.

That combined with the overextended Gold/Silver ratio, the extreme short position held by silver speculators, the push for physical bullion, and the bottoming price, means silver is being primed for substantial gains.

If a perfect storm develops for precious metals, silver could well retest, or even break through its all-time highs by next spring, allowing for almost a 100% gain from current levels.

My advice: Don’t be part of the “dumb money”. Instead, use this opportunity to go long.